Sactown Royalty

A Look Back at Recent NBA Draft Lottery Classes

2012-05-27T20:48:43Z

For bad teams, the NBA Draft is a beacon of hope, a chance to get that one of a kind player that can alter franchise history. In no other sport can a single player have such a huge impact on a team, and it's no surprise that the greatest dynasties are often built around a great player(s) that that team drafted.

The Sacramento Kings have had their share of good and bad luck via the NBA Draft Lottery, and will once again test their chances this Wednesday. This is the Kings' fifth straight year in the lottery, dropping down or staying at the same spot each time. The Kings are currently slated to pick 5th, and will most likely pick somewhere between 5th-7th. They have about a one-in-four chance at jumping into the Top Three, but when you factor in the Curse of the Basketball Gods, those odds change to 0.0000000000004% (give or take a couple trillionths of a percent).

With the lottery in mind, I thought I'd take a look at 10 past drafts (not including last years) to see just how good the players in the lottery have been, and what the average chance of getting a good or great player has been.

(Superstars defined as any player that made at least one All-NBA 1st Team Appearance or won NBA MVP. Stars defined as any player that made an All-NBA 2nd Team or 3rd Team or All-Star team except for Chris Kaman because he is not a star. Above Average, Average and Bust are purely my opinion. It also should be noted that the last few years are less relevant considering players have only been in the league a few years and those will likely change in the next few years with players like Griffin moving into the Superstar range and Cousins/Monroe/Harden moving into the Star range, etc.)

2001:

Superstars: None

Stars: Tyson Chandler (2nd), Pau Gasol (3rd), Joe Johnson (10th)

Above Average: Jason Richardson (5th), Shane Battier (6th), Richard Jefferson (13th)

Average: Vladimir Radmanovic (12th), Troy Murphy (14th)

Busts: Kwame Brown (1st), Eddy Curry (4th), Eddie Griffin (7th), Desagna Diop (8th), Rodney White (9th), Kedrick Brown (11th)

2002:

Superstars: Amare Stoudemire (9th)

Stars: Yao Ming (1st), Caron Butler (10th)

Above Average: Nene (7th)

Average: Mike Dunleavy (3rd), Drew Gooden (4th), Chris Wilcox (8th)

Busts: Jay Williams (2nd), Nikoloz Tsiktishvili (5th), Dajuan Wagner (6th), Jared Jeffries (11th), Melvin Ely (12th), Marcus Haislip (13th), Fred Jones (14th)

2003:

Superstars: LeBron James (1st), Dwyane Wade (5th)

Stars: Carmelo Anthony (3rd), Chris Bosh (4th)

Above Average: Chris Kaman (6th), Kirk Hinrich (7th)

Average: T.J. Ford (8th), Mickael Pietrus (11th), Nick Collison (12th), Luke Ridnour (14th)

Busts: Darko Milicic (2nd), Mike Sweetney (9th), Jarvis Hayes (10th), Marcus Banks (13th)

2004:

Superstars: Dwight Howard (1st)

Stars: Luol Deng (7th), Andre Iguodala (9th)

Above Average: Emeka Okafor (2nd), Ben Gordon (3rd), Devin Harris (5th)

Average: Shaun Livingston (4th), Josh Childress (6th), Andris Biedrins (11th), Kris Humphries (14th)

Busts: Rafael Araujo (8th), Luke Jackson (10th), Robert Swift (12th), Sebastian Telfair (13th)

2005:

Superstars: Deron Williams (3rd), Chris Paul (4th)

Stars: Andrew Bogut (1st), Andrew Bynum (10th)

Above Average: Raymond Felton (5th)

Average: Marvin Williams (2nd), Charlie Villanueva (7th), Channing Frye (8th)

Busts: Martell Webster (6th), Ike Diogu (9th), Fran Vasquez (11th), Yaroslav Korolev (12th), Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th)

2006:

Superstars: None

Stars: LaMarcus Aldridge (2nd), Brandon Roy (6th)

Above Average: Andrea Bargnani (1st), Rudy Gay (8th)

Average: Randy Foye (7th), J.J. Redick (11th), Thabo Sefolosha (13th), Ronnie Brewer (14th)

Busts: Adam Morrison (3rd), Tyrus Thomas (4th), Shelden Williams (5th), Patrick O'Bryant (9th), Saer Sene (10th), Hilton Armstrong (12th)

2007:

Superstars: Kevin Durant (2nd)

Stars: Al Horford (3rd)

Above Average: Mike Conley (4th), Joakim Noah (9th)

Average: Jeff Green (5th), Corey Brewer (7th), Spencer Hawes (10th), Thaddeus Young (12th)

Busts: Greg Oden (1st), Yi Jianlian (6th), Brandan Wright (8th), Acie Law (11th), Julian Wright (13th), Al Thornton (14th)

2008:

Superstars: Derrick Rose (1st)

Stars: Russell Westbrook (4th), Kevin Love (5th)

Above Average: Danilo Gallinari (6th), Eric Gordon (7th), Brook Lopez (10th)

Average: Michael Beasley (2nd), O.J. Mayo (3rd), D.J. Augustin (9th), Jason Thompson (12th), Brandon Rush (13th)

Busts: Joe Alexander (8th), Jerryd Bayless (11th), Anthony Randolph (14th)

2009:

Superstars: None Yet

Stars: Blake Griffin (1st)

Above Average: James Harden (3rd), Tyreke Evans (4th), Ricky Rubio (5th), Stephen Curry (7th), Brandon Jennings (10th)

Average: DeMar DeRozan (9th), Gerald Henderson (12th), Tyler Hansbrough (13th)

Busts: Hasheem Thabeet (2nd), Jonny Flynn (6th), Jordan Hill (8th), Terrence Williams (11th), Earl Clark (14th)

2010:

Superstars: None Yet

Stars: None Yet

Above Average: John Wall (1st), DeMarcus Cousins (5th), Greg Monroe (7th), Gordon Hayward (9th), Paul George (10th)

Average: Evan Turner (2nd), Derrick Favors (3rd), Ekpe Udoh (6th), Ed Davis (13th), Patrick Patterson (14th)

Busts: Wesley Johnson (4th), Al-Farouq Aminu (8th), Cole Aldrich (11th), Xavier Henry (12th)

Analysis:

Players Drafted: 140

Total Superstars: 8 (5.7%)

Average Pick for Superstars: 3.3

Total All-Stars: 19 (13.6%)

Average Pick for All-Stars: 4.3

Total Above Average: 27 (19.3%)

Average Pick for Above Average Players: 6.1

Total Average: 35 (25.0%)

Average Pick for Average Players: 9.3

Total Busts: 51 (36.4%)

Average Pick for Busts: 8.8

Superstars from 2001-2010 Drafted Outside the Lottery: None

Last Superstars Drafted Outside the Lottery: Steve Nash (15th pick in 1996), John Stockton (16th pick in 1984)

All-Stars from 2001-2010 Drafted Outside the Lottery: 16 (Gilbert Arenas, Mehmet Okur, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Carlos Boozer, Josh Howard, David West, Mo Williams, Jameer Nelson, Danny Granger, David Lee, Rajon Rondo, Marc Gasol, and Roy Hibbert)

So yeah, the lottery is kind of a big deal when you're looking for impact players. As the saying goes, the cream rises to the top, and it's no wonder that nearly every superstar drafted over the past 10 years was chosen in the Top 5 (way to ruin it Amare). The All-Star were similarly drafted very high, with an average pick of 4.3 meaning most were also picked in the Top 5. There were a similar amount of All-Stars drafted outside of the lottery as in it, but there was also a greater ratio of one-time All-Stars in that group.

An interesting number though is the fact that the average pick for Busts is higher than the average pick for average players. That's because almost every year there is a player in the Top 5 who completely fails. In this sample, 7 of the 10 years had at least one top-5 pick as a bust, and all 10 years had at least one or more top-5 picks as a bust or average. Considering a top-5 pick is your greatest chance at a star, that really hurts.

In this year's draft, there seems to be one sure thing: Anthony Davis. He projects to be a Tyson Chandler like defensive star at the very minimum, and could be one of the elusive superstars. The other players are far from sure things however, but getting a top-5 pick will drastically increase the Kings chances of improving immediately. The Kings can still have a chance at nabbing a star or a very good player if they stay at 5 or fall (the likeliest scenario), but if a team with a proven STAR or near-STAR player (not John Salmons, Geoff, think more Andre Iguodala) comes sniffing, I'd definitely be looking to move the pick if I could. The odds of grabbing a similar caliber player in the 5-7 range aren't as high as I'd like, and the farther you drop in the draft, less those odds become.

NBA Draft: Assessing Geoff Petrie's Recent Performance For The Kings

2012-05-26T14:01:09Z

Over at the mothership, I spent the week putting together NBA Draft Grades for 2007-2010. The objective: look back to see how players actually turned out; our day-after grades tend to focus on value and tactics of the drafting itself, but only with time can we see whether our draft notions were accurate. Coincidentally, the span I looked out lines up with the first four years of the Kings' earnest rebuild.

So how did Geoff Petrie do?

2007: I gave Petrie a D for the Hawes pick, though I tried to shift some of the blame to circumstances; famously, Petrie liked Joakim Noah ... who went one pick before the Kings were up. But as I note, Sacramento took a big man ... and still needed a big man desperately a year later. Not good.

2008: Petrie picked up a B for the Jason Thompson pick, even though Roy Hibbert, Serge Ibaka and Ryan Anderson were all on the table. I must have been feeling kind on Tuesday morning. From someone less impressed by J.T., this might be a C or worse. But I believe in Thompson.

2009: No surprise here -- the Kings picked up an A- for Tyreke Evans. The minus comes from Omri Casspi at No. 23; he might not be in the league in another year, but hey, he wasn't bad for the first half of his rookie season!

2010: Easy call as DeMarcus Cousins takes over the world and picks up an A for Petrie. Interesting debate in the comments about whether Ekpe Udoh is actually a lesser player than Greg Monroe. And by "interesting" I mean "insane."

So those four years give Petrie a 3.0 grade point average. That's like the lowest level of honor roll. Not bad! Of course, were 2011 added, Petrie might end up on academic probation, so let's not get carried away just yet. And remember that draft is but one piece of the GMing puzzles.

Some owners presumably just love basketball. But there's another reason, one that is blatantly...

2012-05-25T20:41:05Z

Some owners presumably just love basketball.

But there's another reason, one that is blatantly real, but that owners will seldom acknowledge: It's the ultimate fan experience. If you're the owner, you get to hang out in the locker room. You get to hang out in press conferences. You get to sit courtside, within earshot of timeouts. You get to slap five with players in key moments of games. You get to invite people like Julius Erving to hang out with you -- and they show up.

There are not a lot of ways to get into that exhilarating swirl of sports and celebrity. There are not a lot of ways to look so cool.

TrueHoop, on some owners' motivation

Cowbell Kingdom Podcast #41: Aaron Bruski of NBC Sports

2012-05-25T20:29:49Z

Cowbell Kingdom Podcast #41: Aaron Bruski of NBC Sports

2012 Sactown Royalty Community Draft Board: Pick No. 4

2012-05-25T12:01:25Z

Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Thomas Robinson are off the board.

When a choice comes up, pick who you'd want the Kings to pick given all the players remaining. Note: THIS IS NOT A MOCK DRAFT. This is draft board, a list with the order of prospects you'd like to see the Kings pick. In other words, if we were the Kings front office, when our pick came up, we'd take the top name left on our board. So pick your choice, not who you think Geoff Petrie or anyone else would choose in a slot.

Explain your choice in the comments, and lobby for who should be added to the next pick's choices.

This poll ends at 5 AM tomorrow. The next one will be begin shortly thereafter. We will go roughly 20 picks deep.

Poll

At #4 on the StR Board, I select:

Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

373 votes

Andre Drummond, PF/C, UConn

184 votes

Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

94 votes

John Henson, PF/C, North Carolina

21 votes

Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio St.

58 votes

Perry Jones III, F, Baylor

73 votes

803 votes | Poll has closed

Pau Gasol, The Window And The Kings' Hopes Of Landing A Star

2012-05-24T15:01:35Z

Let me preclude this discussion by noting that the Maloofs are broke, and probably cannot afford to make the moves discussed herein.

Pau Gasol is almost assuredly on the market. He nearly got traded for Chris Paul in December, he had a down season and a rough postseason, he's a year older, and he's likely going to come cheaper this summer when L.A. officially takes suitors. Cheaper is a relative term -- his trade value is knocked a bit, but he's due $19 million next season and $19.3 million in 2013-14. In that season, Tyreke Evans will be making a much higher salary (assuming he remains in Sacramento), but DeMarcus Cousins will not yet be beyond his rookie scale deal.

That's a lot of money for a big man on the wrong side of 30 who isn't a defensive ace. Pau will turn 32 in July, and he has nearly 33,000 NBA minutes racked up, plus pre-NBA seasons in Europe and international summer play almost every year. His efficiency dropped this season, but he's a slightly better defensive rebounder than Jason Thompson, a better scorer and passer, rarely tallies turnovers and has all the experience you'd want.

His All-Star days seem to be in the past, but he'd instantly give the Kings' one of the league's best front lines. Is that enough? The Lakers had an elite front line and Kobe Bryant and failed. The stakes, however, are different: the Lakers fail if they do not win a championship. No one would consider Sacramento a failure if they didn't win a title before Gasol's contract ended in 2014. Making the playoffs would be a success for this club and this city, something to spark life and help assess fully the teams' needs and weaknesses.

Because of those expectations vs. the potential of growth toward the ultimate prize, though, I can't imagine giving up Cousins, Evans or the first-round pick for Gasol. The Wizards in 2009 gave up the No. 5 pick to add some roleplayers who the team believed would push Washington toward contention. It failed, delayed the rebuild and cost the Wizards a valuable asset. Giving up the 2012 pick would hold the same potential for the Kings; trading Evans is a similar issue. You're giving up the potential for greatness to make the team better (but not great) in the immediate.

But can the job get done without any of those three assets? Even if the Maloofs could afford to pay up to the salary cap, it's doubtful that there won't be better offers for Gasol than any combination Marcus Thornton, Jimmer Fredette and Isaiah Thomas, plus future picks (which would have to be *really* future because of the Casspi-Hickson trade). We'll see how the market for Gasol shakes out, but it doesn't appear that the Kings could be a match unless they are willing to mortgage the future or give up on Tyreke.

2012 Sactown Royalty Community Draft Board: Pick No. 3

2012-05-24T12:01:42Z

Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are off the board.

Explain your choice in the comments, and lobby for who should be added to the next pick's choices.

This poll ends at 5 AM tomorrow. The next one will be begin shortly thereafter. We will go roughly 20 picks deep.

Poll

At #3 on the StR Board, I select:

Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

372 votes

Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

201 votes

Andre Drummond, PF/C, UConn

89 votes

Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

39 votes

Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio St.

22 votes

John Henson, PF/C, North Carolina

23 votes

746 votes | Poll has closed

Isaiah Thomas Named To All-Rookie Second Team

2012-05-23T15:01:02Z

Isaiah Thomas, the very last pick in the 2011 NBA Draft, was named to the All-Rookie second team on Tuesday. Voting was done by NBA head coaches or, in many cases, the closest PR guy they could find. I.T. picked up five votes for the first team and 17 votes for the second team. Once you take out Keith Smart's non-vote -- coaches can't vote for their own players -- that means seven NBA head coaches did not think Isaiah Thomas was among the 10 best rookies in the NBA. Not among the 10 best.

It's easy to understand seeing I.T. get left off of some Rookie of the Year ballots -- there were compelling cases for other players in the top three. But in the top 10? Isaiah's peers on the second team include Chandler Parsons, MarShon Brooks, Derrick Williams and (seriously) Tristan Thompson. Bismack Biyombo, Kemba Walker and Greg Stiemsma got votes.

I should stop quibbling here -- this is a great honor for Isaiah. But he's apparently going to have to beat some people over the head with his production, because they still didn't see it after that great run through the season. Training camp is in four months. I.T. will see you non-believers then.