Sactown Royalty

Preview: Kings at Mavericks

2009-11-20T20:00:25Z

Sorry y'all, can't watch the game tonight. Something more serious weighing on my mind right now.

Just kidding! Y'all know where my heart lies. It's Paul Westphal you need to crack. (SPOILER ALERT! Donte Greene started Tuesday.)

THE OPPONENT

For all the bouquets Phoenix (10-3) has been bestowed with, Dallas (9-3) has been just as surprisingly good. Don't forget that Josh Howard has (basically) missed the whole shebang, that Shawn Marion missed the team's win over the Spurs Wednesday and has generally had to work out his role in this odd rotation, and that Jason Kidd is older than Edward Cullen. (I can do this all day! All. Day.) Don't shirk the impact of Drew Gooden either -- he's missed a couple games, but had a big night against San Antonio.

Dallas has only one home loss so far, an opening night(mare) against the Wizards. Since then, the Mavs have beat the Jazz, Raptors, Rockets and Spurs in Dallas. The two road losses have come in New Orleans and San Antonio.

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Dirk Nowitzki	12	38.5	9.4	21.1	44.7	1.0	2.8	36.4	7.7	8.5	90.2	0.8	8.4	9.3	2.6	1.5	1.1	1.6	2.2	27.5
Jason Terry	12	34.2	5.7	13.3	42.8	1.5	4.6	32.7	4.2	5.2	80.6	0.4	2.4	2.8	3.2	1.6	1.6	0.1	1.6	17.0
Josh Howard	3	22.3	4.3	12.3	35.1	1.0	3.3	30.0	3.0	4.7	64.3	1.0	2.7	3.7	0.7	0.7	1.3	0.0	1.7	12.7
Shawn Marion	11	32.1	5.6	11.5	49.2	0.0	0.2	0.0	1.4	1.7	78.9	2.7	3.8	6.5	1.5	1.3	1.2	0.8	1.6	12.6
Drew Gooden	8	23.5	3.8	7.9	47.6	0.0	0.1	0.0	1.6	2.3	72.2	2.0	4.4	6.4	0.1	1.0	0.4	1.1	3.5	9.1
Jose Barea	12	23.7	3.1	8.0	38.5	1.0	2.7	37.5	1.8	2.1	84.0	0.3	1.8	2.1	3.7	1.3	0.2	0.2	2.1	8.9
Rodrigue Beaubois	8	12.3	3.1	5.3	59.5	0.6	1.4	45.5	0.8	1.0	75.0	0.1	0.8	0.9	1.1	1.3	0.4	0.3	1.4	7.6
Erick Dampier	9	26.9	3.1	4.8	65.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	2.2	60.0	3.0	6.7	9.7	0.4	1.0	0.2	2.2	3.1	7.6
Jason Kidd	12	35.8	2.3	6.3	37.3	1.6	3.9	40.4	0.2	0.2	100.0	0.6	5.2	5.8	8.9	3.0	1.7	0.3	1.7	6.4
Kris Humphries	11	14.3	2.4	5.3	44.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1	1.8	60.0	1.8	2.6	4.5	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.5	2.2	5.8
Quinton Ross	11	14.8	1.0	2.5	39.3	0.2	0.7	25.0	0.2	0.3	66.7	0.5	0.8	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.2	0.3	2.1	2.4
James Singleton	8	7.8	0.9	2.1	41.2	0.5	1.3	40.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	1.5	1.9	0.1	0.6	0.4	0.3	1.8	2.3
Tim Thomas	1	13.0	1.0	4.0	25.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.0
Matt Carroll	5	4.2	0.4	1.4	28.6	0.2	0.8	25.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.6	1.0

Dirk Nowitzki is not of this planet. It's no use asking how the Kings will defend him, because no one in the league can defend him. Except for Udonis Haslem, and mid-career Peja Stojakovic. I don't even know who you put on Dirk if you're the Kings. Everyone is too small or too green.

Wait ... too green?

Donte Greene, step right up. Here is the most skilled 7-footer in NBA history. Enjoy.

THE KEY BATTLE

Tyreke Evans vs. Rodrigue Beaubois. Beaubois, the Guadeloupe product, is incredibly athletic. As it turns out, he can shoot too. Who knew?! Evans might have his hands full, assuming he guards Beaubois and not Kidd. We haven't really seen Evans defend off-ball energy guards much -- he's usually locked in on a primary ball-handler, something Beaubois is not (right now). At the other end, while Evans has a length advantage and I assume a strength advantage, Beaubois is agile and spirited, a combination which usually makes for solid defense. We'll see.

NUMERIC PREDICTION

Now that the Kings have 10 games under their collective belt (that's a big belt!), we can use current point margins to predict how the game will shake down. By raw points differential, Dallas is a +7.7 and Sacramento is a -1.8 per game. The home team gets three points. Therefore, points differential would predict a ... 12.5-point win for Dallas.

Basketball-Reference adjusts points differential for strength of schedule, and calls it Simple Rating System. The Kings have actually had the league's 10th toughest schedule so far, and as such the team's SRS is -1.17. The Mavs have an SRS of +5.89. Again using three points for home court advatange, SRS would predict a ... 10.06-point win for Dallas.

I was writing some Bella Swan/Ron Weasley/Kathy Ireland love triangle fanfic last night when an algorithm for predicting basketball games came to me. I call it Sexy Systemic Rating System. The formula is too complicated for publication in full on a mere blog, but here's the idea:

(Points scored - points surrendered) + (1,000,000*Number of Donte Greene's on active roster)

According to SSRS and using three points for home court advantage, the result will be a ... 999,987.5-point win for Sacramento. Yay!

BOLD PROCLAMATION

Spencer Hawes will collect 17 rebounds. Not a single one more!

DETAILS

The game will begin shortly after 5:30 PM Pacific, provided Mark Cuban doesn't cancel the game for obvious New Moon related reasons. Game thread at 5:30, Game thread II at 6:30, post-game thread at 8:15.

Bee: Maloofs fold the Monarchs

2009-11-20T19:44:45Z

Bee: Maloofs fold the Monarchs

Sacramento Bee: Mayor Johnson recruits 'dream team' on arena project

2009-11-20T15:57:45Z

Sacramento Bee: Mayor Johnson recruits 'dream team' on arena project

It actually is a sort-of dream team. Well done, Mayor.

I do believe that it is important and fair to paint an accurate picture of a player’s abilities, in ...

2009-11-20T09:13:35Z

I do believe that it is important and fair to paint an accurate picture of a player’s abilities, in that there is often a tendency to hype players up only to personalize their inability to meet those expectations. We attribute the incongruity between expectation and reality not to our own shortcomings as analysts, but to some failing of the athlete. This is most common at the team level, where fans will make a youngster out to be their savior–despite evidence to the contrary–only to turn on them.

Kevin Pelton, Basketball Prospectus

Forward Andres Nocioni (right hip pointer) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice....

2009-11-19T20:48:20Z

Forward Andres Nocioni (right hip pointer) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Nocioni sat out Tuesday's game and was replaced by Donté Greene in the starting lineup.

Jason Jones, Sacramento Bee

When Magic Inevitably Fails: Bulls 101, Kings 87

2009-11-18T16:10:48Z

More photos » by Rich Pedroncelli - AP

Chicago Bulls forward Joakim Noah rips out his still beating heart just to find out what it looks like after scoring late in the fourth quarter in the Bulls 101-87 win over the Sacramento Kings in their NBA basketball game in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2009.(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

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Honestly, given the injury to Kevin Martin, five wins by the end of the November is a minor miracle. And there will be more on the next homestand (which includes the 1-9 Knicks and the 0-11 Nets), so let's not shovel dirt on the .500 Sacramento Kings just yet. But we knew the team was a bit over its head, specifically in a few key areas, and Tuesday's loss to Chicago reaffirmed that.

Sacramento's frontcourt is still in a bit of trouble, despite the fantastic growth of Jason Thompson's game. Joakim Noah dominated the game without a single play drawn up for him. He did a great job on the offensive glass, getting easy tips when the Kings bigs didn't box him out. At the other end, he helped force J.T. into 3-7 shooting (with none of those FGAs outside of five feet). Thompson and Kenny Thomas still led the Kings to a good overall showing on the offensive glass (13 rebounds in 42 opportunities), but that resulted in few points because the Kings shot terribly (31-60 on twos, a disastrous 4-21 on threes) and had more turnovers than an Austrian bakery. (Patissierie metaphor! Like what!)

Exactly two Kings scored efficiently, and if I told you one of them is named Donte Greene you'd burn me at the stake. Sergio Rodriguez -- ! -- was the other. Yes, this team's offense depended on superlative efforts from Donte Greene and Sergio Rodriguez. I don't mean this expression of surprise as a dismissal of the extensive talents of either -- I'm the biggest Donte supporter around -- but with all the other options, it's surprising that the young Greene and the denotative Sergio were the models of balance. Tyreke Evans had some monstrous drives and exclamatory defensive stands, but was too often unbalanced and uncomfortable. Spencer Hawes was an abject disaster in evert facet of the game, and his confidence is readably horrible. Beno Udrih wasn't awful, and in fact last season this type of performance would have registered as above average. But without Martin, the Kings need Udrih to be excellent, and he (13 points on 13 FGAs, five assists) was not near excellent.

One could chalk up the loss to a perfect storm of shooting woes, as in, the Bulls shot wonderfully and the Kings shot woefully. But the Bulls consistently got the shots they wanted. Paul Westphal and his staff know that Luol Deng wants that mid-range jumper, and you know he imparted that knowledge on his players. Yet possession after possession, Deng took open mid-range jumpers. Jannero Pargo may be a bit more difficult to account for, because at times you'd prefer he look to shoot than let someone else take the play, but when you see him with the glint of a thousand bonfires in his eye, and you know a spree (good or bad) is coming, you keep on eye on him. The Kings didn't, the Bulls ran away, and that was that.

I can't stress enough how badly the Kings need Hawes to perform better. He knows this too -- he can't not know it. Effectively, he has been no better than Sean May was in the same spot. Since the Memphis game (Hawes's last off the bench), Spencer's offense has been mediocre. His defense comes and goes, and it just wasn't there against the springy Noah and the crafty Brad Miller. Many of us (guilty, I am) have extraordinary expectations for Hawes, but we don't need all that right now. I can take ordinary. But subpar ain't working, as Tuesday so cleanly elucidated. The Kings have survived the struggles for the most part (4-2 with Hawes off his game), but that won't work in Dallas or Houston, and heck, maybe not in Memphis. The Kings may not compete in Dallas even if Hawes draws upon the Myth of the Next Dirk Nowitzki, because the Mavericks are good and the Kings are average, but without Spencer there is no shot. No shot. (Double emphasis! That means I really meant that! Plaschke like what! Oh, wait, actually that'd be ...

... but without Spencer, there is no shot.

No shot.

No.

Shot.

, right?)

The Donte Greene Show, ladies and gentlemen: 24 points on 19 FGAs, five rebounds, a steal and zero turnovers. Dirk is going to do some mad recruitment for the German national team on Friday.

Chicago Tribune on Nocioni and Westphal

2009-11-18T14:26:11Z

Chicago Tribune on Nocioni and Westphal

More upbeat than most out-of-town (or country) pieces you see about Noc.

Post-game Thread: Bulls at Kings

2009-11-18T05:33:47Z

Next Game

Chicago Bulls
@ Sacramento Kings

Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009, 7:00 PM PST
ARCO Arena

Andres Nocioni has a right hip pointer. He is questionable for the...

posted by Ziller about 20 hours ago

58 comments | 0 recs

Complete Coverage >

We lost, and that sucks. But there were some positives. Discuss.

Game Thread Part II: Bulls at Kings

2009-11-18T04:00:13Z

Use this thread now.

Open Game Thread: Bulls at Kings

2009-11-18T03:00:15Z

Reminder: a second thread will open at 8PM Pacific. Use that one for the second half.

Oh, and go Kings.

Preview: Bulls at Kings

2009-11-17T20:00:31Z

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

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" HAHA! And then the Hamburglar was like, 'Whatchu talkin' 'bout Willis?' HA HA HA HA HA HA! Oh my god, it was hilarious. ... You had to be there."

THE OPPONENT

The Bulls are doing it wrong. Whereas the Kings thrive on offense and pull through (sorta) on defense, Chicago does the opposite: good boring defense, bad boring offense. That is not the way to win hearts and minds! Ask San Antonio! Ask Detroit!

Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich deserve the defensive credit. Noah is second in the league in total rebound rate, and eighth in blocks per game. Deng is averaging 18/9 as a combo forward, and playing the stout man defense he is reputed for. Hinrich is a gnat, as you well know. I have no idea how John Salmons's defense has been, but I do know that it was wildly overrated in Sacramento, and I know that Salmons is still trying to find his offense. (His True Shooting is 41.3 percent. Seriously.)

Still, the Bulls are 5-4, just like the Kings. The team's only road win happened to come in Cleveland, which tends to count for a lot. The other road games have been losses in Boston, Miami and Toronto. This will be the first game of the Bulls' annual circus road trip, which stinks, because theoretically you'd like to catch them at the end, when they have tired mind and cold brain stems. I have a feeling their brain stems might be warmish to steamy. As it were, this is probably the "easiest" stop on the tour (which also visits the Lakers, Nuggets, Blazers, Bucks and Jazz), and as such could either be Vinny Del Negro's Alamo or his Waterloo. Let's find out.

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Luol Deng	9	38.6	7.0	15.6	45.0	0.3	0.6	60.0	3.2	4.2	76.3	3.0	6.2	9.2	1.7	1.6	0.8	0.8	1.6	17.6
Derrick Rose	9	32.6	6.0	12.9	46.6	0.0	0.3	0.0	1.8	2.4	72.7	0.8	2.1	2.9	5.3	3.0	0.9	0.4	1.3	13.8
John Salmons	9	38.0	4.3	13.7	31.7	1.3	5.0	26.7	2.6	3.4	74.2	0.6	3.4	4.0	2.7	1.7	2.0	0.7	2.2	12.6
Joakim Noah	9	32.7	4.9	8.8	55.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.8	72.0	4.3	7.9	12.2	2.2	1.8	0.3	2.0	2.9	11.8
Kirk Hinrich	9	29.4	3.7	9.8	37.5	0.9	3.3	26.7	1.7	2.4	68.2	0.4	2.8	3.2	4.6	2.6	0.9	0.3	2.7	9.9
Tyrus Thomas	4	20.8	3.0	6.8	44.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3	4.0	56.3	1.3	4.0	5.3	0.3	0.8	0.8	1.8	1.8	8.3
Brad Miller	9	22.6	2.8	6.4	43.1	0.2	1.0	22.2	2.4	3.2	75.9	0.9	3.8	4.7	2.0	1.4	0.3	0.2	2.6	8.2
Taj Gibson	9	23.1	3.2	6.8	47.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	1.7	53.3	2.2	2.7	4.9	0.7	1.0	0.9	1.0	2.9	7.3
Jannero Pargo	8	10.5	1.6	4.6	35.1	0.4	1.4	27.3	0.1	0.1	100.0	0.0	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.8	3.8
James Johnson	5	5.6	0.8	2.8	28.6	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.4	0.4	100.0	1.0	0.2	1.2	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	1.8	2.0
Lindsey Hunter	1	7.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	0.0

THE KEY BATTLE

Rose and Salmons vs. Udrih and Evans. Tyreke Evans took turns guarding Trevor Ariza (not well) and Aaron Brooks (well) on Friday, and I imagine the same will be true here. I assume Salmons will continue his pattern of shooting jumpers (a career-high five threes per game this season -- I know Ben Gordon, sir, and you, sir, are no Ben Gordon), though if he has a steamy brain stem in lieu of a warmish brain stem, he may remember Beno Udrih is not adept at defending the drive, and if he has the opportunity to line up across from Udrih may attempt to drive a little bit. We know firsthand Salmons is a fairly skilled finisher, and while Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson have improved as defenders at the rim there is no proof they can deny crafty finishers, of which John Salmons qualifies as such.

At the other end, Evans should be able to drive around or through either Bulls guard. You wonder if The Notorious VDN will opt to stick the long Deng (T.W.S.S.) on 'Reke, but then you realize that makes sense, which is something The N. VDN rarely does, so you stop wondering about that and begin wondering if Jarlsberg is a good choice for a grilled cheese sandwich. (Is it? If not, I have some Swiss, so let me know.)

As for Rose, I will say this: he is pretty good.

INTERESTING SIDESHOW

OK, so, in case you don't know, the Kings are opening up a buffet from 6-7 for any fan with a ticket. (The promotion is currently the splash page of Kings.com. Seriously.) If this game sells out, I predict that the Kings will immediately move to the Silver Legacy casino in Reno. I will be watching the attendance figures with baited (by roast beef and tiny cobs of corn) breath. The only hurdle is accounting for the notoriously healthy Brad Miller Reunion bump. Half of Loomis might come out!

BOLD PROCLAMATION

John Salmons will pass the ball to Kevin Martin exactly as many times as he did all of last season.

DETAILS

The game begins at 7 PM, though the tip may be late if Scott Moak is allowed into the buffet. ("Please rise from your seats as we prepare to salute the ham smothered in au jus and garlic mashed potatoes and ranch dressing.") Game thread at 7, Game Thread II at 8, post-game thread at 9:45, recap in South Dakota.

To my eyes, [Tyreke Evans] is more like a mutant Tony Parker -- he's terrific at getting to the rim...

2009-11-17T17:14:37Z

To my eyes, [Tyreke Evans] is more like a mutant Tony Parker -- he's terrific at getting to the rim and being creative once he gets there. He's not much of a finisher now, but he will be, and if he learns to make some midrange jumpers while throwing in a floater or two, he'll end up being one of the top paint scorers in basketball.

David Thorpe, ESPN

Poll: Samuel Dalembert Edition

2009-11-17T17:06:21Z

Another day, another rumor.

Poll

Would you approve of a trade sending out Andres Nocioni and Kenny Thomas and getting back Samuel Dalembert and J.R. Giddens?

The Prospect of, Um, Samuel Dalembert

2009-11-17T14:06:35Z

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Browse more photos »

Apparently, the Kings are highly interested in a defensive-minded center. Marc Stein of ESPN reports on TrueHoop that the Kings are in exploratory discussions with Philadelphia and Boston in a deal that would bring centre (boom!) Samuel Dalembert to Sacramento with Kenny Thomas and Andres Nocioni departing. Essentially, it brings in Dalembert, whose defense is well-reputed but whose offense and sometimes attitude is disastrous, for two seasons while cutting some salary off this season's ledger and freeing the team from Nocioni's longer contract. Here are the full contract details for the only three players who matter to Sacramento. (Boston, who would receive Nocioni, would also send a couple of dudes to Philly.) As always with matters of salary, thanks be to ShamSports (who you can also follow for pithy remarks, obscure transaction news and feuds with Sam Amick [no really!] on Twitter: @ShamSports).

Player	'09-10	'10-11	'11-12	'12-13
Dalembert	$12M	$12.9M	--	--
Nocioni	$7.5M	$6.9M	$6.7M	$7.5M*
Thomas	$8.8M	--	--	--

The Kings would save a solid $4 million this season, give or take as roughly 10 percent of the season's salary has already been paid out. Next season, the Kings would have $46 million in payroll on the books instead of $40 million, and would be out of the running for a major free agent chase, barring something unexpected with the salary cap. The Kings would gain $6.7 million in space in 2011-12 (putting the team at $34 million in commitments without accounting for Spencer Hawes's extension) as the then-31 Nocioni would no longer be on the books. Nocioni's 2012-13 salary is a team option, which is unlikely to be picked up by any team, unless Bueno Aires grabs an expansion club and Dorothy Nocioni is the owner. So basically, the Kings would save roughly $4 million this season, spend an extra $6 million next season and save $6.7 million in '11-12. A net savings of roughly $4.5 million over three seasons.

That's the money situation. What about the talent?

As we've discussed, Thomas is a bit of gravy right now. He's playing well on defense and on the boards, but he's really just an expiring contract. Adding another pivot would guarantee that. Heck, if Jon Brockman were an inch taller, or Sean May were 10 pounds lighter, Thomas would never get off the bench. Losing Thomas, while sad, because man we have been through a lot with that guy!, would not matter much to the product on the court. Just the product in my chest.

Nocioni has been a good contributor for the Kings, maybe the fourth best offensive weapon at any time. He's also, as we were reminded frequently during the Thunder-Kings game, an active defender, though he's less brilliant against lesser talents, where he loses concentration and chases the ball. Right now, he's the team's most easily swingable big small forward (a minor victory) and one of the team's more reliable shooters (with Omri Casspi, Beno Udrih and a healthy Kevin Martin ... and someday a healthy Francisco Garcia). You assume Ime Udoka would take over Nocioni's spot, at least temporarily, as the suggested three-guard line-up looms with Martin's expected return around the New Year. If it's not Udoka, Paul Westphal can choose between Casspi (the better scorer and more energetic defender) or Donte Greene (the ultra-athletic, hyper-celebratory choice).

But that's all temporary. Long-term, the Kings have plenty of options at the position. Udoka is the team's best defender without question, and he can hit an open shot (which is arguably all you want from Nocioni, though he tends to create in a pinch, which we'd miss until Martin returns or Spencer Hawes regains confidence). Casspi is a bright star -- not star as in NBA Star, but star as in shining light which will always rise with the moon and never disappear until it burns out in a wonderful supernova, which won't happen for millions of years. Greene, of course, is the secret lock of hair in the shoebox, the everlasting dream of tomorrow. Garcia might be a lost cause this season (he'll have about 25-30 games once he returns, and he'll need to refind his stroke on that shooting hand), but he's signed up for the long haul and can do a lot of what Nocioni can do, except for the rebounding. He is, basically, Nocioni. Which makes it weird that we have two Nocionis. But it had to happen -- we couldn't go from two Salmonses (John Salmons and Garcia) to zero Salmonses without making it up somewhere else. (Can we try two Martins or two Thompsons next time? Thanks.)

Now, to the Haitian Conflagration. Interestingly enough, I wondered about Dalembert last trade deadline.

[Tyson] Chandler's reputation is much stronger than that of Dalembert, though I can't really understand why. The only real, measurable advantages for Chandler are that he is 17 months younger, that he refuses to shoot if he can't dunk (hence the higher FG%) and he doesn't put the ball on the floor ever.

Dalembert is an equal or slightly better rebounder, a far better shot-blocker, is slightly cheaper in salary and MUCH cheaper in terms of acquisition costs.

(Quoting myself once again! The Ego is back, baby! Step off, Id.) Chandler is no longer a comparison, as he is spoken for. But look at Dalembert on his own merits: a career defensive rebounding percentage of 24.5 percent, a career block rate of 5.8 percent (that is, when on the court he blocks 5.8 percent of all opponent field goal attempts), a career individual Defensive Rating of 101.5, which happens to rank 88th in the NBA ... all time. He has played every game in each of the past three seasons. He is 75th in NBA history in total blocks, despite averaging only 26 minutes per game for his career (due to fouls and a lack of offensive ability). He was the third best rebounder in the league last season: 6th on the offensive glass (better than J.T.), third on the defensive glass (behind Troy Murphy and Dwight Howard), third overall (behind Howard and Kevin Love). He has finished top seven in the league in block rate in five of his eight NBA seasons, and top nine in rebound rate three times.

For a 7-footer, his career field goal percentage of 52.3 percent might be a bit low. But his True Shooting percentage (that's the best measure of scoring efficiency) is above league average, because unlike most defensive specialist centers he can hit free throws (better than 70 percent in each of the past four seasons and at 78 percent this year). His turnover rate is atrocious, which means he needs to stop handling the ball. I think a coach like Paul Westphal -- who convinced D.G. to stop taking hurried off-balance threes -- could impart that knowledge effectively. If not, your third big (who might start in front of Hawes -- that'd be a pretty big question) would have terrible hands. Not the worst realization, given how many top-level bigs have terrible hands, and given how good the other two prominent Kings bigs' hands are. (No Hamburglar.)

You know, if too many deals which I support come up, I'm going to be found out as an antsy Nancy who is just rooting for a trade. I'm not. But I understand the importance of interior defense -- look at much Hawes, who improved from dreadful to passable on defense, has helped! Imagine inserting a real, live, intimidating defender to the back line. The Kings, no matter how much they have surprised, are still a bad defensive team. Dalembert would help, this year and next. Given that the financial commitment is relatively short, and the price relatively small (no knock on Nocioni -- again, he's a bit superfluous here), it's something any team in Sacramento's position should consider. I trust that provided Boston is on board (Philadelphia certainly must be -- that franchise needs cap space like Jim Eyen needs a personal shopper), the Kings will consider this deal extensively. It's an intriguing one.

UPDATE: I completely neglected J.R. Giddens in this. Take roughly $1 million off this season's savings, and add a relatively old (24) Greene-level two-guard prospect. Giddens played 26 games for Kings assistant Bryan Gates's Utah Flash last season, and turned out a non-elite but good 19.1 PER. On the surface, I can tell he shot twos wonderfully and rebounded well for a 6-5 fella.

Sources told ESPN.com that the Philadelphia 76ers and Sacramento Kings, in considering the...

2009-11-17T11:16:47Z

Sources told ESPN.com that the Philadelphia 76ers and Sacramento Kings, in considering the feasibility of a Samuel Dalembert-for-Kenny Thomas swap, have discussed expanding that concept with Boston by trying to draw in the Celtics on a potential three-way deal that would land Andres Nocioni with the Celts.

Sources further stressed over the past 48 hours that this should be classified as an ongoing conversation as the teams involved decide how much they like what’s on the table.

But the full deal as it stands, if it eventually gets that far, would send Nocioni to Boston, Kenny Thomas, Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine to Philadelphia and Dalembert and J.R. Giddens to Sacramento.

Marc Stein, TrueHoop

Jason Thompson

2009-11-17T07:38:42Z

Jason Thompson

Jason Thompson, Foul Machine

2009-11-17T06:47:49Z

(From the FanPosts. - TZ)

Much has been made of Jason Thompson's foul troubles. Last season, he finished with 314 personal fouls in 82 games, and the second-place fouler was not even close. Paul Millsap of Utah tallied 288 fouls.

Big men are much more likely to foul than smaller players, given the intensity of the game near the basket. This is nothing new. But being among the leaders in fouls committed does not necessarily reflect poorly on a player. Some previous season leaders in total fouls include Shawn Kemp, Patrick Ewing, Charles Barkley, and Hakeem Olajuwon. Of course, leading the league in fouls doesn't instantly make you a superstar. Just ask Shawn Bradley, Danny Fortson, Jason Collins, Ervin Johnson, and Mikki Moore.

If you look at the league leaders in total fouls committed so far in 2009-10, JT's got the eighth highest total (Greg Oden leads the pack). In personal fouls per game, JT is second. So, who cares if JT has a bunch of fouls?

Furthermore, are fouls necessarily bad? It entirely depends on the foul. Some fouls come during the recovery from a blown defensive assignment, while others are the product of hard-nosed defense. Some result in free points via free throws, while others limit the scoring from two sure points to zero points or one point.

With fouls, the biggest issue is lost playing time. With a 21.6 PER so far this season, Thompson is proving to be a valuable asset that needs to be on the court. Last year, JT averaged 6.5 fouls per 48 minutes, and was only able to play 28.1 minutes a game, which--being plenty of playing time for a rookie--was surely lower than it would have been had he been able to curb the fouls a bit. That foul rate was actually 18th-worst in the league--bad, but not as horrible or "telling" as leading the league in fouls seemingly was. As a side note, Andres Nocioni finished 21st in 2008-2009 with 6.3 fouls per 48 minutes.

This year, he's dropped his fouls to 5.7 per 48 minutes, which is a much more respectable 65th. He's up to 34.4 minutes per game, which is probably close to what it will be for most of the year, provided he can keep his fouls down like he has. In comparison, Jon Brockman gets 10.4 fouls per 48 minutes, which, if we set the qualifying bar at 7 games played, would place him 4th-worst in the league, behind Hasheem Thabeet (14.9!), JaVale McGee (11.8), and Rasho Nesterovic (10.6).

In Ziller's recent front-page post, we read:

There has been one other stand-out improvement, but credit for this one likely goes to Paul Westphal: Thompson is playing more minutes this season. Last year, J.T. averaged 28 minutes per game. Even after the All-Star Break, when Brad Miller, Shelden Williams and Mikki Moore were exiled, Thompson still averaged less than 32 minutes a game. Thompson's foul rate hasn't lowered significantly (4.9 per 36 to 4.3), but Westphal has decided to keep him on the court for longer stretches. That's helped the per-game numbers reach (to date) All-Star level.

I submit that a drop from 4.9 fouls to 4.3 per 36 minutes is a significant improvement, provided it holds for the whole season. At 34 minutes per game, JT's averaging a half of a foul less per game this season. That greatly increases the odds that he'll be on the court.

Ironically, Thompson's foul total may increase this season, in spite of a decrease in his foul rate. If JT averages 34 minutes per game with 5.7 fouls per 48 minutes for all of 2009-10, he will finish with about 331 fouls. That total could very well lead the league again, though a healthy Greg Oden might challenge him.

JT is apparently learning ways to limit his fouls, but he probably won't be averaging fewer than 4 fouls per game anytime soon. As long as JT is able to avoid the cheap ones, it's okay if he's up with the league leaders in total fouls. Just make them count, and keep playing 34+ minutes per game.

Fitting that Houston was the victim when the Kings extended their miraculous, shocker-of-the-season...

2009-11-17T06:04:43Z

Fitting that Houston was the victim when the Kings extended their miraculous, shocker-of-the-season start to 5-4. Sacramento's scrappy play without the injured Kevin Martin strikes us as very Rockets-esque.

ESPN Power Rankings on Kings

Andres Nocioni has a right hip pointer. He is questionable for the Kings-Bulls game.

2009-11-16T23:18:40Z

Andres Nocioni has a right hip pointer. He is questionable for the Kings-Bulls game.

Sacramento Kings on Twitter

How Jason Thompson Has Improved

2009-11-16T19:04:20Z

More photos » by Rich Pedroncelli - AP

Browse more photos »

David Berri's point about the improvement of Jason Thompson got me wondering: exactly how has J.T. improved? What is he doing better this season? There are three key areas I see.

* Handling the ball. Last season, Thompson was basically a non-factor as a facilitator. For a non-featured scorer, he was actually a bit turnover-prone. He has fixed both of those items: he has 26 assists and only 11 turnovers this season. If he can sustain that type of efficient passing production without seeing his turnovers shoot up, that's a huge boon.

* Drawing fouls ... and hitting those free throws. Thompson is earning about two more FTAs per 36 minutes this year. But the bigger improvement has been his free throw stroke: he's gone from 69 percent to 82 percent from the line, which is an incredible jump. His senior year at Rider -- two years ago -- he only hit 58 percent on FTs. (He did hit over 70 percent in two other Rider seasons ... but nothing close to 82 percent.) Can J.T. keep hitting the freebies? Let's hope so. It's a big scoring boost for one of Sacramento's key weapons.

* Collecting offensive rebounds. We had no right to expect Thompson to improve on the offensive glass: he was already 7th in the entire league last year! He collected 11.8 percent of all offensive rebound opportunities as a rookie. This year, he's up to 15 percent, good for 4th in the league. He's averaging a cool five offensive rebounds per 36 minutes, which has helped him peak into the league's top 10 rebounds per game list despite no individual improvement on the defensive glass. J.T. is averaging a double-double right now.

There has been one other stand-out improvement, but credit for this one likely goes to Paul Westphal: Thompson is playing more minutes this season. Last year, J.T. averaged 28 minutes per game. Even after the All-Star Break, when Brad Miller, Shelden Williams and Mikki Moore were exiled, Thompson still averaged less than 32 minutes a game. Thompson's foul rate hasn't lowered significantly (4.9 per 36 to 4.3), but Westphal has decided to keep him on the court for longer stretches. That's helped the per-game numbers reach (to date) All-Star level. And that helps get J.T. the attention he deserves.