Sactown Royalty

Preview: Kings at Grizzlies

2009-11-23T22:00:18Z

More photos » by Steve Yeater - AP

THE OPPONENT

The Kings face Memphis for the second time this season, the first being Sacramento's virgin victory of the season, an overtime triumph in which Kevin Martin broke his wrist but still scored 48, in which Allen Iverson played his first of three games with the Grizzlies, and in which Spencer Hawes injected himself into the starting line-up. In that game, Tyreke Evans (two points, three rebounds, four assists) and Jason Thompson (seven points, five rebounds, two assists, two blocks) were mostly ineffective; J.T. fouled out in 28-1/2 minutes of work. Hawes had a brilliant, brilliant 21-point, 11-rebound, 7-assist, 2-block effort. Omri Casspi, Beno Udrih and Andres Nocioni combined for 44 points on 30 FGAs off the bench, and Martin had potentially the best or second-best game of his career, adding five rebounds, four assists, four steals and a block to his hyperefficient 48. He sat for only 32 seconds. It was his second-to-last game before surgery.

For Memphis, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol inflicted much of the damage. Randolph had 30 points and 16 rebounds before fouling out in overtime. Gasol had 16 and 16. The other three Memphis starters -- O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay and Mike Conley -- were fairly inefficient. Hasheem Thabeet had a glorious 54-second stint, registering all of one foul. And nothing else.

Since that night, Memphis has won three (awful Wolves, awful Clippers and mediocre Sixers) and lost six. Most recently, Memphis gave up a late lead at home to Brandon Jennings and the Bucks, losing 103-98. Coach Lionel Hollins used a short bench, playing only eight players. This is Memphis's final home game before a five-game Thanksgiving road trip.

Memphis is one of the league's best rebounding teams. The Grizzlies are also quite good at drawing fouls and avoiding defensive fouls. However, the Grizzlies do everything else terribly. And I don't just mean in a basketball sense. Have you ever heard Rudy Gay play tuba? There's a reason for that! O.J. Mayo's crepes Suzette are among the worst ever made in the history of French cuisine. And Marc Gasol is the first Tenneseean to be banned from a skeet shooting range after an unfortunate (and completely avoidable) mishap involving an Eggo and a natural gas pipeline. (Don't ask.)

THE KEY BATTLE

Circumstances dictate that, assuming he plays, Evans will battle with Mayo, the larger of Memphis's guards. Martin marked Mayo last time, and did a fine job. Again, contrary to common belief, O.J. is a shooter, not really a slasher. If he does stab into the heart of the defense, he passes off pretty well. The key is to not give him a straight path to daylight. If you do, he'll make you regret it.

Evans should be able to do whatever he wants on Mayo, who is athletic as all get-out but doesn't seem to apply it particularly well on defense.

BOLD PROCLAMATION

Spencer Hawes will attempt more threes than Marc Gasol.

BOLD PROCLAMATION II: ELECTRIC BUGALOO

Grant Napear and Jerry Reynolds will not make insensitive remarks regarding Hamed Haddadi's nationality, which is something Clippers fans cannot say of their announcers.

DETAILS

This is a 5PM Pacific start. Game thread at 5, Game Thread II at 6, post-game thread at 7:45, recap in perpertuity.

Quick Poll - Who Is Your Favorite Current King?

2009-11-23T06:57:56Z

Based on nothing statistical or scientific - just who is your favorite King of the moment? Expound in the thread.

Taking Stock

2009-11-22T21:29:14Z

Both of these guys have played at ARCO Arena this year, but not for us. This is a good thing.

Twelve games represents 15% of the NBA season. In baseball terms, it would be about the equivalent of the month of April. And while there is a long way to go in the season, you can begin to draw some basic conclusions and comparisons as it pertains to the Sacramento Kings and the players that make up the current roster. This is not to say that this conversation could not take a completely different turn in 30, 60 or 90 days. But to this point in the season, here are my musings (and please remember to take into consideration how much you paid to log on here when you assess a true value to the following comments).

Kevin Martin – The goods: 31 pts., 3 assists(!), 5 boards(!!) and 2 steals(!!!) per game. True shooting had dropped below 57%, which is still very good. These numbers are all-star numbers. Martin was on his way to becoming the more complete player that we were begging for him to become.

The not-so-goods: Martin is hurt…again. And once we worked through the verbiage and concluded that Martin is not soft but has been injury prone, we were left to ponder whether Kevin Martin can stay healthy enough to be a consistent contributor to this Kings team. Certainly, Martin cannot afford to suffer another substantial for the duration of his current contract. Back in March of 2008, I wrote a post explaining that I did not want to invest in Ron Artest based solely on the number of games that he had missed. Ron-Ron had missed 19-27% of the games that he could have played in since he became a starter in the league (depending on whether or not you wanted to count his Detroit brawl suspension). As of today, Martin has missed 26% of the games that he could have played in since becoming a starter, and that number will grow over the next couple of months. Martin has got to figure out how to shake the injury bug, or he will become the modern day Rex Chapman – a player known for what could have been.

Tyreke Evans – The goods: Clearly one of the top two rookies in the league to this point (along with Brandon Jennings). 18 pts., 5 boards and assists and a couple of steals per game. Barely 51% true shooting, but that is not bad for a rookie, especially one that started the season below 50% at the free throw line (now up to 75%). And he has been (according to Paul Westphal) the team’s best defensive player. I’m not saying that Tyreke will become our Brandon Roy, but I am saying that the possibility of that happening at least exists.

The not-so-goods: I got nothing. There are certainly areas where Evans can improve, but to this point he has been so far beyond our early season hopes for him, any criticism would really be nitpicking. Let’s re-visit this in about a month or so.

Jason Thompson – The goods: Compared to last year, JT is +3 pts., +2 boards, +1 block and +1 assist in +7 minutes. Free throw percentage up 11%. Thompson has improved his perimeter jumper, and is developing a left hand(!).

The not-so-goods: Last year, Thompson averaged a foul every 7 minutes. This year he is averaging a foul every 8 minutes, which is not much of an improvement. And while I will agree that some of the fouls on Thompson are of the cheap variety, the majority of these fouls are a result of JT using his hands on defense instead of his feet. Once Thompson masters the art of defending with his feet, the foul trouble should abate. Thompson also needs to improve on recognizing and reacting to double teams now that opposing teams are paying more attention to him.

Spencer Hawes – The goods: Um…he’s 21?

The not-so-goods: He is exactly the same as last year’s Spencer Hawes. Hawes shows flashes of who he could become, but he also has long rough patches. This might not be as big of a deal on some other teams, but when your production alternatives are Kenny Thomas, Jon Brockman and Sean May, the shortcomings are greatly accentuated. Hawes does not need to become great over the next couple of months, but he does need to become a consistent contributor.

Beno Udrih – The goods: 17 pts. and 5 assists per game as a starter. The best (only?) mid-range shooter on the team.

The not-so-goods: Non-existent. This is the best ball that Udrih has played in his life. The question will be how productive he will be once Martin returns.

Andres Nocioni – The goods: Andres has improved his trade stock and become more valuable to the current Kings squad at the same time. I don’t see Noc as being in the long term rebuilding plan, but I sure don’t have an issue with him staying here, either.

The not-so-goods: Will we still feel warm and fuzzy about Noc as Greene and Casspi continue to develop and Garcia returns?

Omri Casspi – The goods: Are you kidding? Did anyone see 22 minutes a game for this kid after summer league? Or 9 pts., 4 boards per game? And the guy is tougher than Kenny Thomas’ tax liability on payday.

The not-so-goods: 3-16 from the free throw line before hitting his last 6. Casspi is currently better from 3 (43%) than the free throw line (41%). Westphal has said that this is a result of Casspi being a little too amped up when he gets to the line (the same applies for Brockman).

Donté Greene – Donté is only getting about a minute and a half more playing time per game, but he has more than doubled his scoring. Greene is shooting 56% from the field (33% last year), and there is no comparison when it comes to his defense and overall court presence.

The not-so-goods: Donté grabs a rebound every 10 minutes, the same rebounding rate owned by 6’0" Minnesota point guard Johnny Flynn.

Ime Udoka – The goods: To paraphrase Jerry Reynolds, Udoka is the one guy that you can put on the floor with any four other players, and you will get the same positive contribution. Udoka is definitely a guy that takes what the game gives him, and he rarely hurts you. He is a good guy to have until Martin and Garcia return, and he will probably be a good teammate if he is retained after that (think Ty Corbin).

The not-so-goods: He’s 32? I got nuthin’.

Sean May – The goods: 1 year, $825k contract.

The not-so-goods: Behind Kenny Thomas, Jon Brockman and Truck Robinson on the depth chart.

Sergio Rodriguez – The goods: Best assist/turnover ratio on the team (2.8/1).

The not-so-goods: Defensively, makes Mike Bibby look like Gary Payton.

Jon Brockman – The goods: A rebound every 2 and a half minutes.

The not-so-goods: Sean May is taller lying down than Brockman is standing up, and that’s a shame. This motor deserves a bigger vessel.

Kenny Thomas – The goods: 5.5 boards per game. Thomas has pulled down 44 rebounds this year – he pulled down 77 in 2007-08 and 2008-09 combined.

The not-so-goods: Woof? I’ll give Thomas credit – he’ll never contribute to the size of his contract, but he is contributing.

Paul Westphal and staff – The goods: They have this team playing damn hard, and that’s all that most of us were asking for at the beginning of the season. Westphal has not been afraid to play the youngsters at important moments of the game (of course, as young as this team is perhaps he has no choice), and he has been communicative, appreciative and firm with his squad.

The not-so-goods: I don’t know. There have been those that have questioned some of his in-game decisions, but I’m just to giddy to quibble right now. All I wanted at the beginning of the season was for the last two minutes of the game to matter. To this point, my wish has been more than granted.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Week 4

2009-11-22T19:27:06Z

Have any of you seen Grant Napear in broad daylight? I'm not saying, I'm just saying. But back to the Kings, oh how the mighty have fallen. After going 3-0 last week, the Kings did the exact opposite this week. But still, there were some good things to take from this week, especially considering we only had one game with our main rotation playing (and that's still without Kevin and Cisco).

The Good

1. Tyreke Evans

Aren't you guys glad this guy is on our team? When's the last time a King's rookie has dropped 29 points, 7 rebounds, 10 assists, a steal and a block in a game? He did start off the year rather poorly for our expectations, but he is definitely showing he will become a force in this league, on both ends of the floor. I said this earlier in the week, but I think Kevin's injury might be a bit of a blessing in disguise, because it allows Tyreke to focus on being the leader at the moment and getting comfortable with the whole team, instead of deferring to Kevin at the beginning, and then when Kevin comes back, he'll be more comfortable running the team.

2. Donté Greene

Donté had a good couple games against Chicago and Houston, and even though he played limited minutes against Dallas, he did some good things during his floor time. He didn't miss a shot against Houston, and he scored a career high 24 points against Chicago, one of the few bright spots of that game (although it came at the expense of him shooting 8 three pointers). He's still very young and still makes mistakes, but I think we have to like the improvement Doratio has made in his game this year, and I'm going to give Westphal credit for that.

3. 3 Point shooting defense

The Kings continue to do a pretty good job defending the 3 point shot, only allowing 15 threes out of 49 attempts (.306) this week, and 7 of those came in the Chicago game (the one good 3 point game from another team, Chicago went 7-12)

4. Omri Casspi's Free Throws

Omri hit 6-7 free throws this week. Yay!

5. Kenny "Satan of Rebounding" Thomas

K-9 is doing everything we wanted Mancakes to do except for break faces. He averaged about 15 minutes a game last week and during that time put up stats of .3 points, 6.66! Boards and 1 block a game. Not bad at all. Maybe we should re-sign him for the mini... Whoa... I didn't mean it... put the knife down...

6. Sergio Rodriguez

Sergio played really well this week. He's by far the best passer on the team (3:1 A:to ratio this week), and he even shot well this week. His game against Chicago was nice all around with 9 points, 5 assists:1 TO, and a steal. I wonder if we'll see more of him. Seeing as how handling the ball has been one of biggest weaknesses this season, I think we will.

7. The Return of the Hawes?!?

After looking like he'd have another disappointing week, Spencer finally had a nice game as a starter against Houston, with 24 points (10-16 shooting 2-3 from 3), 9 boards, 2 assists and 2 blocks. We really need him to stay consistent though. Hopefully next week this kind of output continues.

8. Wabeno

Wabeno continues to be very effective in his time playing, and looking very deserving of the contract we gave him (who would have thought this last year?). He averaged 17 points (.478 FG%), 6 assists, 2.3 boards and a steal this week, and he's definitely stepped up on defense this year, trying his best even if not always succeeding. And that's all we can ask.

9. Scrappiness

The Kings should not have been close in either the Dallas or the Houston games. And yet they fought on, scrapped tooth and nail, and had a chance to win both those games. Its a kind of basketball I'm growing to love and I can't wait to see it all year. I think it will bring fans back to Arco, and we'll have to wait and see what attendance is like when we get back home, but its slowly been creeping up. The Chicago game had the highest attendance since the Memphis home opener.

10. Noc

The one game we didn't play with Noc this week was our biggest loss and I don't think that's a coincidence. He is acting the role of energy veteran at the moment and I think the team feeds off of his activity a little bit. I know we all say he's not part of our long term future, but I would not be surprised if we don't trade him this season at least.

11. Kevin Johnson

The Mayor is definitely being proactive in dealing with the Arena situation and I don't think that can be stressed enough. I think we're in good hands on that front. The deadline for proposals sent to his committee is Christmas Eve so hopefully we see a few more realistic options by then.

The Bad

1. Rebounding

We did not outrebound one opponent this week (although two of them were ties). Still we've come to expect better. Not one King broke 10 boards this week, with the closest being JT with 9 against Chicago.

2. Ime Udoka

Udoka did not have a good week, especially when his FG% wasn't even worthy of Desmond Mason. He didn't play against Houston, and you have to wonder if he shot his way out of the rotation, possibly replaced by Sergio. It's definitely too early to say, but I think he still has a spot, because he's shown he can be very effective.

3. Jason Thompson, Turnover Machine

After totaling 11 turnovers in the first 9 games of the season, Shock had 13 last week, including a horrible 7 turnovers against Chicago. He also hasn't been getting nearly as many assists as he was early in the season, only getting 4 for the week, and all that being against Houston. He also got 5 fouls in each of the 3 games last week, not to mention not getting one double-double all week (Side-note, JT double-doubles = victories still a coincidence)

4. Injuries

We missed 3 players (not including Kevin Martin and Cisco) to injuries this week. Noc to a hip-pointer against Chicago, Tyreke to a sprained finger, and Ime to Desmond Masonitis.

5. Sam Amick's Father passed away

From all of Sactown Royalty, our condolences to Sam Amick, whose father passed away on the 18th.

6. No more Sacramento Monarchs

What else is there to say? The Maloofs are backing the Kings 100% now, but it still is a little sad.

The Ugly

1. TURNOVERS

The Kings are not good at taking care of the ball. Is it cause there young and playing with a new coach? Perhaps. But it really, really needs to improve. The Kings had 62 assists to 56 turnovers this week. A little better than last week, but not by much. Sloppy ball-handling probably cost us the games against Dallas and Chicago.

2. Letting role players dominate us.

Against Chicago, Jannero Pargo scored 12 points in 14 minutes on 5-8 shooting. Against Dallas, Kris Humphries had 15 points, and 5 boards on 7-11 shooting in 24 minutes. And in Houston, Carl Landry (role player might be a bit strong for Landry, he's alright in my book. Same with his brother Marcus) scored 20 points on 6-8 shooting, had 7 rebounds, and a block in 25 minutes. We can't let those types of players have great games against us for whatever reason, because it ends up costing us games.

3. The slopfest that was the Chicago game

That game should not have been close. It was not fun to watch. Too many bad passes and ugly shots. We aren't going to win many games playing like this, and I'm surprised we didn't lose by 20+.

4. The Kings didn't get to make Bill Ingram cry again

Bah Humbug.

5. Jasonrp shaved

And as such, the Kings winning streak coming to an end is ALL HIS FAULT.

Player of the Week

Tyreke Evans

24.5 points, .525 FG%, .333 3P%, 5.5 boards, 7 assists

Yes, he only played two games, but he played good both those games, especially against Dallas. He is definitely giving us Kings fans hope for the future and that we might have a star in the making. One can only hope this type of production stays when Kevin comes back and that the two can co-exist because that could be an amazing backcourt for years to come.

Comment of the Week

Skelly porn gives me a boner
by ElRonToro on Nov 16, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 9 recs

And Nostradumbass's Predictions for Next Week

@ Memphis 11/23 W

v. New York 11/25 W

v. New Jersey 11/27 W (I have a bad feeling about this game though. I don't want to be THAT team)

Nostradumbass for the season (4-6)

On a side-note, if you've read LTTG's "Delusions of Grandeur" FanPost, he is exactly 4-0 on his predictions so far. Hopefully I don't jinx him, although I don't believe in that type of stuff.

When Reality Knocks Down Spirit, and Spirit Gets Back Up

2009-11-22T16:25:05Z

by Pat Sullivan - AP

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As readers of this site know, I'm (often too) focused on results, numbers, production when it comes to basketball and the Kings. I'd rather have a Rashad McCants than a Mikki Moore, a D-League question mark than a Desmond Mason, a successful play rather than a smart but failed play. David Eckstein is a curse word in my household (for multiple reasons), and while basketball certainly has a (huge) spot for hustle, give me the player who can score 20 standing up over the frenetic scrapper who needs to dive around the floor to break 10.

Basically, I'm rather wary of assessing the non-concrete when it comes to analyzing the sport and this team.

But there's no possible way to discount how spirited, how utterly driven this team has been. It hasn't been just in the face of adversity -- in the New Orleans, Memphis and Atlanta games, before Kevin Martin's surgical departure, the team showed remarkable backbone. It's an institutional attribute at this point, made ever more apparent with each game. Every single player on the roster has shown it, even the punching bags of the past. The Kings just went 0-2 on a road back-to-back, but took their pound of flesh from each opponent. This team hasn't quit, and it won't quit.

It's almost gotten to the point where we should seriously stop comparing this team to the one we watched a year ago.

I have been as quick as anyone to toss out observations like, "Last year's team would have lost by 30" and "Last year's team would have had Chili's take-out sent to the locker room during halftime." But this team has nothing in common with last year's team. Sure, four-fifths of the normal starting line-up spent last year in Sacramento. Sure, half the roster has been in place for at least two seasons. But that's just marbles talking, and marbles can't tell you what it means to exist. This team is not last year's team + 1. It's a brand new invention.

That, of course, makes watching the Kings play infinitely more enjoyable, but is also works against our better judgment in terms of judging the team. Like, the team is now 5-7. No one expected this team to run out to a 5-4, then 5-5, 5-6 and 5-7 record. So it feels like gravy. But it shouldn't! This is no longer a team consigned to 20-25 win expectations decreed by the 17-win result of a season ago. It's own expectations are being formed as we watch, and I believe it's safe to say that while 5-7 is a fair expectation right now, that will change soon.

So we're left enjoying something new, just as we did in 1999. We have no idea what's in store for Omri Casspi (whose Flacoesque "mean face" should be put on a wanted poster), for Donte Greene (a walking exclamation mark), for Jason Thompson (the most frantic brand of smooth I've seen), for Spencer Hawes, for Tyreke Evans, for Kevin Martin, for Beno Udrih. We have no clue what the eventual peak will be, what piece(s) will need to be moved for the team to break the wall (if there is a wall, and wherever it stands), what elation and heartbreak lay ahead. This is the good part, the not-knowing but being excited part. We died for Kenny Natt's sins! And this is some flavor of basketball heaven.

That's why I feel good about a three-game losing streak.

Rivercats' Art Savage Dead At 58

2009-11-22T06:03:39Z

Rivercats' Art Savage Dead At 58

Not Kings related, but if you are a fan of sports in Sacramento, you know how much of a loss this is. Condolences to the Savage family - Art Savage will be missed.

Post-Game Thread: Rockets 113, Kings 106

2009-11-22T03:59:20Z

Next Game

Sacramento Kings
@ Houston Rockets

Saturday, Nov 21, 2009, 5:30 PM PST
Toyota Center

Preview: Kings at Rockets

posted by Ziller about 2 hours ago

19 comments | 1 rec

Complete Coverage >

Open Game Thread II: Kings at Rockets

2009-11-22T02:30:11Z

This is the thread to use beginning at 6:30 PM.

Open Game Thread: Kings at Rockets

2009-11-22T01:30:11Z

Go Kings.

(Game Thread II at 6:30, post-game thread at 8:15.)

Preview: Kings at Rockets

2009-11-21T20:00:15Z

by Rich Pedroncelli - AP

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THE OPPONENT

The Kings, you may remember, saw these Rockets about a week ago, in Sacramento's most recent win, one which took the team to a 5-4 record. The Kings have lost two straight: a disappointing slopfest against Chicago, and a resilient fight in Dallas. Houston has gone 2-2 since last Friday, beating the Lakers and Wolves on the road but losing to Phoenix at home, and suffered heartbreak in Atlanta last night.

Even though the Rockets slept in their own beds last night, the Kings should be more well-rested, having played two fewer games in the past week and having had just the short flight from Dallas last night instead of the longer journey from Atlanta. Trevor Ariza and Luis Scola each played more than 34 minutes last night; three other Rockets (Shane Battier, Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry) played more than 30 minutes last night.

When the Rockets visitied Sacramento, as a reminder, Jason Thompson went ballistic with 27 points and 11 rebounds, nine of which came on the offensive end. Beno Udrih and Tyreke Evans combined for 42 points. Ariza scored 17 in the first half, but got too cocksure from behind the arc and shot 4-12 from three. Houston missed a ton of open shots in the second half, but the Kings defense was pretty solid overall.

The Rockets have the No. 7 offense and No. 14 defense. The Kings have the No. 10 offense and No. 24 defense.

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Trevor Ariza	13	38.1	6.5	16.8	39.0	2.5	7.2	35.5	2.6	3.5	75.6	1.0	4.5	5.5	3.9	2.8	2.1	0.5	2.5	18.2
Aaron Brooks	13	34.3	6.3	14.5	43.6	2.2	6.1	35.4	2.7	3.4	79.5	0.9	1.6	2.5	5.9	3.5	0.5	0.2	1.7	17.5
Carl Landry	13	24.8	5.8	10.7	54.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.1	3.5	87.0	2.3	3.2	5.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.8	3.1	14.8
Luis Scola	13	30.5	6.2	12.2	51.3	0.1	0.1	100.0	2.1	2.8	75.0	2.5	7.3	9.8	1.9	2.5	0.9	0.4	3.1	14.6
Shane Battier	13	32.7	2.8	7.2	39.8	1.5	4.5	34.5	1.7	1.9	88.0	0.8	1.9	2.7	2.6	0.8	1.1	0.7	1.8	8.9
Chase Budinger	12	18.3	3.3	7.9	42.1	1.3	3.6	37.2	0.4	0.7	62.5	0.8	2.3	3.2	1.4	0.8	0.6	0.1	1.5	8.4
Kyle Lowry	13	23.9	2.6	6.1	43.0	0.5	1.5	36.8	2.3	3.1	75.0	1.2	2.5	3.8	4.9	1.8	0.9	0.4	2.7	8.1
Chuck Hayes	13	25.8	3.0	5.5	54.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6	50.0	3.0	3.9	6.9	1.2	0.9	1.8	0.6	3.0	6.3
David Andersen	13	12.4	2.5	5.5	44.4	0.3	1.0	30.8	0.7	0.9	75.0	0.5	2.2	2.7	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.2	2.2	5.9
Jermaine Taylor	3	2.7	0.3	1.0	33.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	2.0	83.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3
Brian Cook	4	2.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.0

THE KEY BATTLE

Again, look for the Luis Scola-Jason Thompson match-up to set the tone. Thompson was an absolute beast on the offensive glass last time -- there's no understating that -- and while Scola is a good defensive rebounder, he's undersized and not athletic enough in this particular match-up. You know Elston Turner will have a gameplan to keep Thompson off putback duty, but you'd also would have thought he had a plan to keep Josh Smith from throwing down a game-winning putback dunk last night. So there you go. On the other end, Thompson needs to be wary of foul trouble -- that's Houston's best strategy against him: attack with Scola, who is crafty as a Girl Scout summer camp.

NUMERIC PREDICTION

Raw points differential (plus HCA) calls a 7.6-point Houston victory. SRS calls a 7.7-point Houston victory. SSRS calls a 999,992.4-point Kings victory.

INTERESTING SIDESHOW

I'm eager to see how Houston will come out of the gates against the Kings. No doubt the loss in Sacramento spoiled an otherwise successful road trip. Perhaps the Rockets got their aggression out against the Lakers, but so recent a disappointing loss (and the Rockets were disappointed) should provide a nice adrenaline boost. The Kings have met almost every adrenaline challenge to date, though. The team's spirit has been commendable.

BOLD PROCLAMATION

Spencer Hawes will have 17 rebounds. Not a single one more!

DETAILS

This game will also tip off at 5:30 PM Pacific. Game thread then, followed by GT2 at 6:30 and the post-game thread at 8:15.

Mavericks Vanquish Kings 104-102

2009-11-21T12:00:31Z

by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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This was the Mary, Queen of Scots of basketball games. The Mavericks were always in the executioner's role, always with the biggest weapon and the strategically superior position. But damn if they didn't have to hack at the Kings repeatedly to get the job done. "Put the kids to bed, Sally, the Kings are in town!"

Dallas ended up winning 104-102, though it was basically a three-possession game for the entirety of the fourth quarter. The Kings had the deficit at three points a couple times, but couldn't do enough to stop the Jasons Terry and Kidd. Sacramento ended up scoring 37 points in the fourth, a figure not terribly bloated by the foul party at game's end. But Dallas scored 36 of their own, cinching up the win.

Tyreke Evans was unbelievable, finishing with 29 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. He actually threatened the triple-double mark the entire fourth, having hung on nine assists and seven rebounds until the final, superfluous play. That's how awesome Evans's floor game was through three quarters, while he made his biggest late-game contributions in the scoring ledger. 'Reke had 13 points on six FGAs in the fourth, including 10 in the last six minutes.

Of course, that wasn't enough. Terry hit for 12 points in the fourth, and Kidd had a big three-pointer (his fifth of the game) late. Dirk Nowitzki -- the axe, in our opening metaphor -- was kept under wraps, limited to 20 points on 6-15 shooting. Credit Andres Nocioni and Jason Thompson for keeping Dirk out of his comfort zone, for the most part. Nowitzki's used to making tough shots, but the Kings made many of them too tough while also working hard to limit his attempts by bringing a keep double (often Evans off of Kidd, which didn't exactly work in terms of beating the Mavericks as a team).

Thompson's game looks much better in the box score than it did on the court -- he and Spencer Hawes were beat to a lot of defensive rebounds by Drew Gooden, who had an unbelievable nine offensive rebounds in 30 minutes, including six within the first nine minutes of the game. That's some awful defensive rebounding by the Kings bigs; the team did correct the problem, giving up nine in 34 opportunities in the second, third and fourth quarters combined (as opposed to eight in 18 opps in the first). But there's no excuse to let Gooden go hog wild early, not given the Kings size advantage.

Omri Casspi had two baaaad turnovers, but played well overall. Donte Greene got short shrift (fourth man off the bench, less than 12 minutes) for unknown reasons. His defense looked good. There was a bit of finger-pointing on the defensive end after a few blown assignments, and from my seat it doesn't exactly look like Thompson and Spencer Hawes are on the same page at either end.

But in the end, sticking with as good a team as Dallas for 48 minutes on the road is damn impressive. There's no such thing as a moral victory, but there are losses that aren't depressing, and this is one of those. 5-6 has never looked better.

Post-Game Thread: Kings at Mavericks

2009-11-21T04:15:09Z

Next Game

Sacramento Kings
@ Dallas Mavericks

Friday, Nov 20, 2009, 5:30 PM PST
American Airlines Center

Preview: Kings at Mavericks

posted by Ziller about 3 hours ago

76 comments | 6 recs

Complete Coverage >

Open Game Thread II: Kings at Mavericks

2009-11-21T02:30:12Z

Use this thread now. Post-game thread will magically appear at 8:15 PM Pacific.

Open Game Thread: Kings at Mavericks

2009-11-21T01:30:12Z

Go Kings. (Game Thread II at 6:30 PM Pacific.)

NYT article on the recent rise of the pick & roll in the NBA

2009-11-21T00:17:05Z

NYT article on the recent rise of the pick & roll in the NBA

Tons of joy here for you stats geeks, including graphs and diagrams.

Preview: Kings at Mavericks

2009-11-20T20:00:25Z

Sorry y'all, can't watch the game tonight. Something more serious weighing on my mind right now.

Just kidding! Y'all know where my heart lies. It's Paul Westphal you need to crack. (SPOILER ALERT! Donte Greene started Tuesday.)

THE OPPONENT

For all the bouquets Phoenix (10-3) has been bestowed with, Dallas (9-3) has been just as surprisingly good. Don't forget that Josh Howard has (basically) missed the whole shebang, that Shawn Marion missed the team's win over the Spurs Wednesday and has generally had to work out his role in this odd rotation, and that Jason Kidd is older than Edward Cullen. (I can do this all day! All. Day.) Don't shirk the impact of Drew Gooden either -- he's missed a couple games, but had a big night against San Antonio.

Dallas has only one home loss so far, an opening night(mare) against the Wizards. Since then, the Mavs have beat the Jazz, Raptors, Rockets and Spurs in Dallas. The two road losses have come in New Orleans and San Antonio.

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Dirk Nowitzki	12	38.5	9.4	21.1	44.7	1.0	2.8	36.4	7.7	8.5	90.2	0.8	8.4	9.3	2.6	1.5	1.1	1.6	2.2	27.5
Jason Terry	12	34.2	5.7	13.3	42.8	1.5	4.6	32.7	4.2	5.2	80.6	0.4	2.4	2.8	3.2	1.6	1.6	0.1	1.6	17.0
Josh Howard	3	22.3	4.3	12.3	35.1	1.0	3.3	30.0	3.0	4.7	64.3	1.0	2.7	3.7	0.7	0.7	1.3	0.0	1.7	12.7
Shawn Marion	11	32.1	5.6	11.5	49.2	0.0	0.2	0.0	1.4	1.7	78.9	2.7	3.8	6.5	1.5	1.3	1.2	0.8	1.6	12.6
Drew Gooden	8	23.5	3.8	7.9	47.6	0.0	0.1	0.0	1.6	2.3	72.2	2.0	4.4	6.4	0.1	1.0	0.4	1.1	3.5	9.1
Jose Barea	12	23.7	3.1	8.0	38.5	1.0	2.7	37.5	1.8	2.1	84.0	0.3	1.8	2.1	3.7	1.3	0.2	0.2	2.1	8.9
Rodrigue Beaubois	8	12.3	3.1	5.3	59.5	0.6	1.4	45.5	0.8	1.0	75.0	0.1	0.8	0.9	1.1	1.3	0.4	0.3	1.4	7.6
Erick Dampier	9	26.9	3.1	4.8	65.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	2.2	60.0	3.0	6.7	9.7	0.4	1.0	0.2	2.2	3.1	7.6
Jason Kidd	12	35.8	2.3	6.3	37.3	1.6	3.9	40.4	0.2	0.2	100.0	0.6	5.2	5.8	8.9	3.0	1.7	0.3	1.7	6.4
Kris Humphries	11	14.3	2.4	5.3	44.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1	1.8	60.0	1.8	2.6	4.5	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.5	2.2	5.8
Quinton Ross	11	14.8	1.0	2.5	39.3	0.2	0.7	25.0	0.2	0.3	66.7	0.5	0.8	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.2	0.3	2.1	2.4
James Singleton	8	7.8	0.9	2.1	41.2	0.5	1.3	40.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	1.5	1.9	0.1	0.6	0.4	0.3	1.8	2.3
Tim Thomas	1	13.0	1.0	4.0	25.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.0
Matt Carroll	5	4.2	0.4	1.4	28.6	0.2	0.8	25.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.6	1.0

Dirk Nowitzki is not of this planet. It's no use asking how the Kings will defend him, because no one in the league can defend him. Except for Udonis Haslem, and mid-career Peja Stojakovic. I don't even know who you put on Dirk if you're the Kings. Everyone is too small or too green.

Wait ... too green?

Donte Greene, step right up. Here is the most skilled 7-footer in NBA history. Enjoy.

THE KEY BATTLE

Tyreke Evans vs. Rodrigue Beaubois. Beaubois, the Guadeloupe product, is incredibly athletic. As it turns out, he can shoot too. Who knew?! Evans might have his hands full, assuming he guards Beaubois and not Kidd. We haven't really seen Evans defend off-ball energy guards much -- he's usually locked in on a primary ball-handler, something Beaubois is not (right now). At the other end, while Evans has a length advantage and I assume a strength advantage, Beaubois is agile and spirited, a combination which usually makes for solid defense. We'll see.

NUMERIC PREDICTION

Now that the Kings have 10 games under their collective belt (that's a big belt!), we can use current point margins to predict how the game will shake down. By raw points differential, Dallas is a +7.7 and Sacramento is a -1.8 per game. The home team gets three points. Therefore, points differential would predict a ... 12.5-point win for Dallas.

Basketball-Reference adjusts points differential for strength of schedule, and calls it Simple Rating System. The Kings have actually had the league's 10th toughest schedule so far, and as such the team's SRS is -1.17. The Mavs have an SRS of +5.89. Again using three points for home court advatange, SRS would predict a ... 10.06-point win for Dallas.

I was writing some Bella Swan/Ron Weasley/Kathy Ireland love triangle fanfic last night when an algorithm for predicting basketball games came to me. I call it Sexy Systemic Rating System. The formula is too complicated for publication in full on a mere blog, but here's the idea:

(Points scored - points surrendered) + (1,000,000*Number of Donte Greene's on active roster)

According to SSRS and using three points for home court advantage, the result will be a ... 999,987.5-point win for Sacramento. Yay!

BOLD PROCLAMATION

Spencer Hawes will collect 17 rebounds. Not a single one more!

DETAILS

The game will begin shortly after 5:30 PM Pacific, provided Mark Cuban doesn't cancel the game for obvious New Moon related reasons. Game thread at 5:30, Game thread II at 6:30, post-game thread at 8:15.

Bee: Maloofs fold the Monarchs

2009-11-20T19:44:45Z

Bee: Maloofs fold the Monarchs

Sacramento Bee: Mayor Johnson recruits 'dream team' on arena project

2009-11-20T15:57:45Z

Sacramento Bee: Mayor Johnson recruits 'dream team' on arena project

It actually is a sort-of dream team. Well done, Mayor.

I do believe that it is important and fair to paint an accurate picture of a player’s abilities, in ...

2009-11-20T09:13:35Z

I do believe that it is important and fair to paint an accurate picture of a player’s abilities, in that there is often a tendency to hype players up only to personalize their inability to meet those expectations. We attribute the incongruity between expectation and reality not to our own shortcomings as analysts, but to some failing of the athlete. This is most common at the team level, where fans will make a youngster out to be their savior–despite evidence to the contrary–only to turn on them.

Kevin Pelton, Basketball Prospectus

Forward Andres Nocioni (right hip pointer) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice....

2009-11-19T20:48:20Z

Forward Andres Nocioni (right hip pointer) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Nocioni sat out Tuesday's game and was replaced by Donté Greene in the starting lineup.

Jason Jones, Sacramento Bee

Sactown Royalty

Preview: Kings at Grizzlies

THE OPPONENT

THE KEY BATTLE

BOLD PROCLAMATION

BOLD PROCLAMATION II: ELECTRIC BUGALOO

DETAILS

Quick Poll - Who Is Your Favorite Current King?

My favorite King du jour is:

Taking Stock

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Week 4

When Reality Knocks Down Spirit, and Spirit Gets Back Up

Rivercats' Art Savage Dead At 58

Rivercats' Art Savage Dead At 58

Post-Game Thread: Rockets 113, Kings 106

Next Game

Preview: Kings at Rockets

Open Game Thread II: Kings at Rockets

Open Game Thread: Kings at Rockets

Preview: Kings at Rockets

THE OPPONENT

THE KEY BATTLE

NUMERIC PREDICTION

INTERESTING SIDESHOW

BOLD PROCLAMATION

DETAILS

Mavericks Vanquish Kings 104-102

Post-Game Thread: Kings at Mavericks

Next Game

Preview: Kings at Mavericks

Open Game Thread II: Kings at Mavericks

Open Game Thread: Kings at Mavericks

NYT article on the recent rise of the pick & roll in the NBA

NYT article on the recent rise of the pick & roll in the NBA

Preview: Kings at Mavericks

THE OPPONENT

THE KEY BATTLE

NUMERIC PREDICTION

BOLD PROCLAMATION

DETAILS

Bee: Maloofs fold the Monarchs

Bee: Maloofs fold the Monarchs

Sacramento Bee: Mayor Johnson recruits 'dream team' on arena project

Sacramento Bee: Mayor Johnson recruits 'dream team' on arena project

I do believe that it is important and fair to paint an accurate picture of a player’s abilities, in ...

Forward Andres Nocioni (right hip pointer) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice....