Silver Seven

Struggles continue as Senators lose 4-1 to Maple Leafs

2010-03-17T03:08:55Z

More photos » Sean Kilpatrick - AP

1 day ago: Toronto Maple Leafs' Jonas Gustavsson stops a break-away shot from Ottawa Senators' Milan Michalek during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Ottawa on Tuesday, March 16, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Sean Kilpatrick)

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Anyone out there who, like me, thought a return to Ottawa would reverse the fortunes of the Senators as they took on the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday night turned out to be depressingly wrong. The Sens played the same urgency-starved game that has earned them a 1-4-1 record since the Olympic break, and lost 4-1 as a result.

Although the Senators didn't deserve to win the game, there were some positives to take out of it. A few players, particularly Milan Michalek and Chris Kelly, had glorious chances to score, but just couldn't get the puck past Jonas Gustavsson. It's not as much that Gustavsson was stellar--he was pretty good, but certainly didn't steal the game--but the Senators' ongoing struggles to score just continue. Ottawa actually outshot the Leafs 31-30, but just couldn't capitalize on their chances.

Sens heroes: Chris Campoli, Nick Foligno
Oh, look, the two guys who've just returned from injury; apparently they haven't been affected by the losing their teammates have allowed to get them down. Campoli might have been the Senators best defenceman tonight, with a shot on net and a couple of hits. What he did more effectively than any of his teammates was contain the young, quick, and energetic Leafs players by forcing them to the outside and limiting their ability to get to the middle of the ice. His fellow defencemen would have benefited from following his lead (and I'm not sure I've ever said that about Campoli before).

Foligno, on the other side of the puck, also played a game that was tailored to the opposition: He drove to the net, forechecked hard, forced turnovers, and made life difficult for Gustavsson. He had three takeaways, one shot, and a couple of hits, but played the blue-collar style that made Ottawa so successful through January and February. Again, the rest of the team needs to follow his lead.

Sens zeros: Matt Carkner, Andy Sutton
The long-term costs of having a defenceman on whom you rely for over 15 minutes a game consistently drop the gloves for your team are really adding up, or at least it looks that way where Carkner's involved. He didn't fight against the Leafs, but he's slowing down as the season goes on, and seems to be losing his focus. The reason Carkner made the team this season, ahead of guys on one-way deals like Alex Picard and Chris Campoli, was because he played a simple game; he needs to get back to that, and soon, to be effective in the playoffs. As it is, he looks like he could be the odd man out when Filip Kuba returns.

I feel badly for putting Sutton on this list, given that he scored the Senators only goal, but he was off tonight. Similar to Carkner, he was a step behind, and (although I'll give him credit for trying it) was embarrassed when he missed a big hip-check on John Mitchell in the second and the Leafs centre roofed it past Brian Elliott.

Sens killers: Phil Kessel, Jonas Gustavsson
Kessel's become a regular on this list. He opened the scoring tonight, and now has six goals and an assist in five games against Ottawa since joining the Leafs. He had a game-high seven shots on net.

Gustavsson was solid, and there when the Leafs needed him. Toronto had eleven giveaways (which pales in comparison to Ottawa's 18 giveaways, but it still kind of bad), some of which put the team in a tough spot, but Gustavsson backed up his teammates.

Room for improvement: Daniel Alfredsson, Chris Kelly
These guys have different problems. Alfredsson can almost score at will when he's playing hard, but he hasn't had that je ne sais quoi in his game lately. I have a feeling it's got something to do with his play at the Olympics, and perhaps the disappointment with his team's finish, but he's got to get over it: The Senators aren't finished just yet. Alfredsson, though, can't be said to lack emotion, but his dirty hit-from-behind on Francois Beauchemin is the wrong avenue for him to vent it. (The fact that Beauchemin broke Alfie's ribs in the 2007 playoffs, reported by Ian Mendes, makes the hit more understandable, but still not excusable.) He's the captain, and this team will only go as far as he's going to take them

Kelly, on the other hand, is working his ass off, but can't score to save his life. He led all Senators with five shots on net, and probably had the Senators best scoring chance (goal notwithstanding) but couldn't convert. He finished -2, which isn't good for a defensive centre, but more importantly he's been given an opportunity to step up in the absence of some of the team's elite talent. With Mike Fisher out, Kelly moved up the lineup, but couldn't make the most of his chance.

Disappearing act: Matt Cullen, Ryan Shannon, Peter Regin
The three above-mentioned players? Combined for one shot on goal. Which was off the stick of Cullen, who also had an assist and wasn't completely missing. Still, the Senators were running at a good clip when he came in, and he was only supposed to add to the offence; he needs to put in the work to do that.

The most frustrating part of watching Shannon, and likely the reason he's had a hard time staying in the NHL, is his wrist-slitting inconsistency. Some games, he's Theo Fleury; others, he's just gone. On the bright side, he's not a liability, but unfortunately 'not a liability' is not good enough. He needs to be an asset more consistently.

It's easy to forget Regin is still a rookie based on his season so far, but he's got the gifts of a good playmaking centre and a knack for the net. When the going gets tough for the Senators, particularly in the playoffs, it's going to be players like Regin, Shannon, and Cullen who will need to provide the offence when the big guns are contained. They need to step it up to do so.

Shot map:
The shots are there. The finish is missing.

Game highlights:

Game 70: Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

2010-03-16T22:30:20Z

Toronto Maple Leafs
@ Ottawa Senators

Tuesday, Mar 16, 2010, 7:30 PM EDT
Scotiabank Place
Enemy: Pension Plan Puppets

Complete Coverage >

Well, the Senators have played themselves back into a pressure-filled situation. Our "must-win" watch is at Defcon 2, with the team being told they have to play "with urgency." Yikes.

Mike Fisher will also miss tonight's game with an upper-body injury. Yikes.

In the last meeting of these teams, Toronto dominated a flu-ravaged team and won in the shootout, 2-1. The team only gained a point because of the play of Pascal Leclaire. Yikes.

Now, some good news:

Nick Foligno returns to the team tonight. Foligno's gritty style of play has been sorely missed by this team, especially against recent Western Conference opponents. Foligno also tends to score goals in his first game back, and goals are something the Sens need. Yay!

Chris Campoli returns, so Brian Lee is out of the lineup. Yay! (Sorry, Brian.)

This is one of Ottawa's last home games before the playoffs, and they were humiliated in their last outing. Look for them to come out flying in this game -- a win tonight will really alleviate some of the pressure they've created for themselves.

And, as always, you are invited to join us in the comments section -- we can't be awesome without you!

Silver Nuggets: The return of Foligno! Oh, and Campoli

2010-03-16T16:01:32Z

More photos » Sean Kilpatrick - AP

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Here are all of the Senators stories fit to print for today:

Nick Foligno and Chris Campoli will return to action tonight after both being out since before the Olympic break with injuries. Mike Fisher, however, is doubtful for tonight's game due to a nagging upper-body injury.(Score Twitter)
Brian Elliott starts in net. (Score Twitter)
Brian Lee has been sent back to the AHL. (Score Twitter)
Forward lines tonight: Kelly-Cullen-Alfredsson, Michalek-Spezza-Foligno, Shannon-Regin-Kovalev, Ruutu-Winchester-Neil (Sens Twitter)
Nichols reminds us that Alex Kovalev is not the only unproductive Ottawa Senator as of late, and shows us the pitiful stats of a handful of players. (6th Sens)

The Globe looks at the Senators' current slump. (Globe & Mail)

As the Senators face the Leafs tonight, many media outlets are pointing out that the Senators were hard after Tyler Bozak last season. (National Post)

The struggles of Jonathan Cheechoo, who refuses to accept his injury history as the reason for his poor play this season. (Mercury News)

Josh Hennessy of the Binghamton Senators was named AHL Player of the Week. (Hockey's Future)

The Prediction Panel guesses at the outcome for tonight's game, and it's a unanimous vote for a Senators victory. (Citizen)

Goalie prospect Robin Lehner has lead his Soo Greyhounds to the OHL playoffs, where he will have a nice test in the first round while facing Tyler Seguin and the Plymouth Whalers. (Greyhounds)

Lehner was recently the co-recipient of regular season Team MVP, and when accepting the award he dropped this bomb: "Right before the NHL draft, I was going to quit hockey. [...] This organization, the players and the coaches, have changed me and my point of view on life." (Sault Star)

I paid $95 for seats and they didn't even win!

2010-03-16T11:00:29Z

More photos » Darryl Dyck - AP

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It wasn't supposed to be like this. It was supposed to be a valiant effort by the Senators, who dazzled the crowd with outstanding offensive prowess and a blue-collar work ethic. I was to leave that opponent's arena with my head held high, laughing quietly at the fans of the opposing team for wasting their money on a lackluster performance.

Instead, I watched my first live Ottawa Senators hockey game with quiet horror as the Sens managed only 14 shots on net against the Vancouver Canucks. It was arguably their worst effort of the season, but it's all I have to base the live Ottawa Senators experience on. As a kid from rural British Columbia who waited well over a decade to see his favourite team in action, I suppose it's fair to say that it was a disappointment.

After the jump, a handful of my observations from GM Place.

Maybe it's just because the Senators only come to town once in a blue moon, but I was stunned by the number of Sens fans on the streets of Vancouver and at the game. Very solid support for the team, including some pretty good "Go Sens Go!" chants despite the lopsided score.
Nice job by the Canucks organization in recognizing the Olympic achievements of both teams. They kept it short and simple, and didn't overdo it at all.
My buddy accidentally bought us seats in the "No Alcohol Allowed" section. That was an unfortunate surprise to us on game day.
Pascal Leclaire deserved so much better than that Senators effort.
Somebody at the game was wearing a Chris Campoli Ottawa Senators jersey. I applaud the individual for being different, but it still seems like a bizarre choice.
That really was just some dude in a Chris Campoli jersey, not Chris Campoli himself buying a pretzel. I realize the latter seems more likely.
Alex Kovalev was the worst player on the ice, and not only for his poor decisions with the puck. It's probably not visible when watching the TV feed, but when he was away from the puck he did absolutely nothing. I'm pretty sure I sweat more than he did that game.
Dude in black Sens jersey who looks vaguely like Rivers Cuomo -- if you're reading this, I just want you to know that for a few brief hours, you sat behind a real live unpaid hockey blogger. Feel free to tell your kids about it some day.
I will take that Jason Spezza goal to the grave with me. What a beautiful goal it was, and it had all of the Sens fans in the crowd believing it would swing the momentum to the Sens. It didn't, but watch it again (just for good measure):

It's a shame that my first Ottawa Senators experience ended up this way, particularly since it's likely to be a while before they come back to Vancouver. However, getting to see Daniel Alfredsson play before he retires is something I can now cross off my bucket list, so it was worth it just for that.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: these hits (Ovechkin's, Steve Downie's, Matt Cooke's,...

2010-03-16T01:31:14Z

I've said it before and I'll say it again: these hits (Ovechkin's, Steve Downie's, Matt Cooke's, etc.) are Rorschach tests; people see what they want to see in them, be it a chance to critique the game, promote a hero by unfairly ripping apart a "villain," or what have you.

J.P. from Japers' Rink, on the two-game suspension assessed to Alexander Ovechkin.

Does drafting more goaltenders lead to better goaltending?

2010-03-15T11:00:31Z

Darryl Dyck - AP

Pascal Leclaire was brought in to be the Senators' long-term goaltending solution, but he hasn't fulfilled that yet. Why haven't the Senators been able to find a franchise goaltender, despite needing one for the entire franchise's history?

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Pretty much since the inauguration of the franchise, the Ottawa Senators have dealt with flux in the crease. Although there have been streaks where goaltenders have played well, there hasn't been any significant measure of consistency, whether within a season or, especially, over the course of a few seasons. Given this fact, you've got to think the Senators have identified goaltending as a key area for improvement, and used the most basic method for improving a given area--the Entry Draft--to address it. But you'd be wrong, because of the course of the last decade, the Senators have drafted a total of five goaltenders: Robin Lehner (2009), Ryan Daniels (2006), Jeff Glass (2004), Brian Elliott (2003), and Ray Emery (2001).

With five goalies selected since 2000, the Senators have drafted the second-fewest netminders, ahead only of the New Jersey Devils--and the Devils have kind of had that position pretty well settled for the decade. The rest of the top ten are all over the map, in terms of steady goaltending:

Team	No. of goalies drafted
Devils	4
Senators	5
Blue Jackets	6
Bruins	7
Red Wings	7
Oilers	7
Canadiens	7
Rangers	7
Ducks	8
Stars	8
Four more tied at...	8

On average, teams have drafted more than nine goalies in the last decade, but the Senators have drafted about half that many. So why have the Senators not tried to use the draft in order to address what has been their primary weakness for that whole time? And would doing so even necessarily mean they'll solve the problem?

(Read more... )

At the other end of the spectrum, we see a similar range of teams who've had solid goaltending (the San Jose Sharks), teams who are just beginning to have solid goaltending (the Pittsburgh Penguins), and teams who--despite drafting so many goaltenders--continue to struggle filling that position (the Philadelphia Flyers):

Team	No. of goalies drafted
Flyers	16
Kings	14
Predators	14
Lightning	14
Penguins	12
Sharks	12
Avalanche	11
Blackhawks	10
Islanders	10
Thrashers	9
Six more tied at...	9

Drafting goaltenders doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get good ones. Take the Flyers, for instance, who've drafted more goaltenders than any other team, but have only really had one--Roman Cechmanek--offer them anything in the way of goaltending. The four 'tenders they drafted in 2008 and 2009 are skewing their number upwards, but there's perhaps another reason they haven't had success: No goaltender has been drafted before the third round, and their average round drafted is 5.3. So it's one thing to keep drafting goalies, but you have to be willing to use higher-round draft picks in order to find a good one.

However, drafting a highly-ranked goaltender doesn't mean you're going to get a good one, either. Of the 15 goaltenders drafted in a first-round since 2000, three are now unquestionable starters for their teams: Cam Ward and Marc-Andre Fleury. On the other hand, the Rangers have wasted two first-round picks on busted goalies (Al Montoya and Dan Blackburn), while a seventh-round pick of theirs has become their franchise keeper.

Conclusion: Conventional wisdom is that drafting goaltenders is largely a crapshoot, and that seems to hold true: There isn't a significant direct relationship between the number of goaltenders your team drafts and whether or not there is any measure of steady goaltending. Still, drafting more goaltenders will increase your chances of finding one who will work out. Nor are there guarantees if you're willing to use high draft choices to select goaltenders, because there is so much uncertainty with a goaltender's development.

The trick, obviously, is good scouting, and good goalie development. If your scouts are able to identify the right factors that an NHL goaltender needs, and your personnel department and coaching staff are able to build on those factors to improve the player's chances, it seems not to matter where he's drafted. Although the Senators need to be concerned with filling out their forward ranks for the future of the team, they also need to have goaltending scouts pay serious attention to goalies out there, and not be afraid to pick some, as they appear to have been for much of the past decade.

Senators unravel in 5-1 loss to Canucks

2010-03-14T07:07:32Z

More photos » Darryl Dyck - AP

This is apparently not a penalty in the NHL anymore. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

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The Ottawa Senators lost to the Vancouver Canucks because they couldn't maintain their poise. After goaltender Pascal Leclaire did everything in his power to keep it 1-0 after one period -- in which the Senators were outshot 17-2 -- Jason Spezza made an outstanding individual effort to tie the game at one on a full speed end-to-end rush. The rest of the team responded to this by not playing defense and giving up three unanswered goals, including a brutal shorthanded breakaway to Alex Burrows. There was very little to like about this game outside of Leclaire's play. It's a real disappointment to see how little support his teammates gave him after he put forth top effort even after the game was clearly out of reach.

Sens Zeroes: Alex Kovalev, Erik Karlsson
Alex Kovalev was particularly ineffective tonight, trying to force plays that simply were not there. He added to this mess by loading up on roughing penalties in the second period. Bad enough that he wasn't contributing offensively, but he put his teammates in a difficult spot with untimely penalties. That can't happen. As veteran, he should know better.

Meanwhile, Karlsson got way too confident tonight. Attempting fancy pass after fancy pass, it finally burned him in a big way as his lackadaisical play with the puck got him stripped and led to the shorthanded breakaway goal. He did not respond well, as his confidence was visibly lower after that: with a great opportunity on the short side, he waffled about whether to pass or shoot, finally decided to shoot, and completely whiffed. The result was a shuffleboardesque shot that Roberto Luongo simply put his glove on.

Sens Killers: Mikael Samuelsson, Ottawa's Power Play, Officiating
Ottawa's powerplay was beyond impotent. Much like with Alex Kovalev, if it isn't going to produce offense, it needs to at least not provide it to the other team. They failed at that, giving up a shorthanded goal. Yes, I'm mentioning it again. The SHG was the difference in this game. Ottawa collapsed afterwards.

The Canucks hit Leclaire early and often in this game, and the penalties instead called were:

Matt Carkner, interference
Ryan Shannon, hooking

Goalie interference was not called in this game, and it is a mystery to me why not. I am loathe to blame the officials for Ottawa's loss, but the Canucks didn't need any help -- they thoroughly dominated the Senators in this game.

This was exemplified by Samuelsson, who had a two goal, one assist night, and played smart, hard hockey. It's amazing to think a player like that was left off of Sweden's Olympic team.

Shot Chart of Misery:

Yeah, it was that bad.

Game Highlights:

Our own DarrenM was at this game, and has promised to post his thoughts soon, so look forward to that. Next game is Tuesday, at Toronto in the safe confines of Scotiabank Place. This team suddenly needs a win badly.

Game 69: Ottawa Senators @ Vancouver Canucks

2010-03-14T02:00:30Z

Next Game

Ottawa Senators
@ Vancouver Canucks

Saturday, Mar 13, 2010, 10:00 PM EST
General Motors Place

Silver Nuggets: Leclaire expected to start; NHL's biggest brawls

posted by PeterR about 5 hours ago

6 comments | 0 recs

Enemy: Nucks Misconduct

Complete Coverage >

Well, the last time this building saw hockey, it was kind of a big deal. No pressure, Canucks. This is the first home game for Vancouver since January 27th. They may be slightly excited to play tonight. Here's master psychologist Mike Fisher with some analysis:

"They’ll be ready to play. There’s no question they’ll be excited to be back home. We’re going to have to be ready and try to weather the storm early. We’re going to have to have a good start and a solid road game. There was a lot of excitement about the Olympics. Having Luongo back, and I’m sure they’ll do something for him for winning the gold medal, I’m sure the atmosphere in there is just going to be unreal. It should be a great game for them."

Meanwhile, Pascal Leclaire gets the start for Ottawa barring a last minute injury. I wish that was a joke. Is it the right choice, given Elliot's play on the road trip? Let's put it this way: If he wins, it's the right choice. Leclaire was strong in his last start against the Maple Leafs, but pulled less than seven minutes into his previous start against Carolina. Consistency will be key for him tonight.

Chris Kelly also returns to the lineup, which means Silver Sevens favorite Shean Donovan is scratched. You won't find a lot of support for this choice from Peter or me.

The Senators fired 63 shots at the Flames' net on Thursday, but only 33 actually made it to Kiprusoff. The remaining 30 were blocked. If the team plays a similar game tonight, we are in for a wild, entertaining affair. With Buffalo losing to Minnesota yesterday (with a game at Detroit this evening), this is a crucial game for Ottawa. The team has been ice cold since the Olympic break, so it's premature to talk about must-win games just yet. However, in the race for the division title, this is indeed a must-win game. I'm excited to see how the Senators respond.

As always, please join us in the comments section where we'll be enjoying the game!

Silver Nuggets: Leclaire expected to start; NHL's biggest brawls

2010-03-13T18:42:26Z

Cory Clouston said that both goalies would play on this road trip, so people expect Pascal Leclaire to get the start tonight against the Vancouver Canucks tonight. (Citizen)
The panelists are just about split on predicting tonight's game: Four pick Ottawa, three (including yours truly) picked Vancouver. (Citizen)
Scouting report: The Sens are having a hard time scoring. (Vancouver Sun)
Over and done with now, but Clouston and Milan Michalek maintain that Michalek's tip-in against Calgary should have been a goal. (Sun)
The Senators-Flyers brawl tops the list of the NHL's biggest brawls of the last 23 years. (Behind The Net)

Daniel Alfredsson is a supporter of the new blindside-hit rule. Considering the blindside hit he took from Mark Bell a couple seasons back, it's not surprising. (Citizen)
The Orland Kurtenblog interviews James Gordon for a dossier on the Ottawa Senators. (The Province)
I didn't expect a 6th Sens podcast featuring Jay Grossman, Anton Volchenkov's agent, to contain so much swearing, but there you go. It does. (The 6th Sens)
UPDATE: Written like a bit of a press release, but Scotiabank Place scores a 27 on (I assume) 35 possible points. (Stadium Journey)
So I'm watching Paralympic sledge hockey right now, and I'm wondering if there are any sledge referees they can employ.

Senators blow a million chances en route to 2-0 loss to Flames

2010-03-12T07:51:33Z

More photos » Jeff McIntosh - AP

6 days ago: Ottawa Senators' Jason Spezza, right, digs for a rebound from Calgary Flames goalie Miikka Kiprusoff, from Finland, during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Calgary, Canada on Thursday, March 11, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jeff McIntosh)

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Ottawa should have won this game but didn't. Thanks for reading.

What, you want more?

OK, here's a short list of the major missed chances:

Milan Michalek had a power play goal waved off because of a high stick. Whether it was truly a high stick or not is debatable, but there was not enough evidence to overrule the call on the ice, which was no goal.
0 for 5 on the power play.
Peter Regin hit the crossbar of an open net.
The Senators had 33 shots on goal. The Flames blocked almost as many. This is NOT an exaggeration.

A little more misery coming up.

Sens Heroes and Zeroes: None
This was a weird one. There wasn't a single player who played a bad game tonight, and yet the team has absolutely nothing to show for it. Goalie Brian Elliott really cannot be faulted with either goal -- the third coming into an empty net -- and even the power play looked very good -- except for the lack of goals. This was the quickest I've seen the team set up the PP in a long time, and they moved the puck very, very, well; they just couldn't bury any of their chances. Matt Cullen played a particularly strong game, and so did Milan Michalek. Michalek seems to play his best games on the west coast, as he repeatedly managed to turn on the jets tonight. He hasn't done that in a while, so it was nice to see him find another gear again. Jason Spezza, as well, deserves mention for playing an intelligent, inspired game. Spezza really tried to make something happen, but could not.

Black and Blue: Nick Foligno was sorely missed in this physical game. The Flames were dishing out hits left and right, and the Senators were checking as tightly as they have all year. Space and passing lanes were at a premium in this game and players were skating to the bench shaking some body part in pain with regularity. The Flames had more players give up their bodies to secure the win, and that was really the difference.

Sens Killers: Miikka Kiprusoff, Ian White
The Senators started off the game flying, but Kiprusoff slowly crept into their heads. He was going to stop anything he saw tonight, and his team was blocking shots like they were Secret Service agents. The Senators responded by trying to set up deflection shots, and though they got several glorious chances, none went in -- save for the waved off goal.

Meanwhile, even though White didn't lead the Flames in ice time, he was exemplary of what it was going to take to win the game: gritty. All of the Flames played this way and it was like watching a wall of red get in front of the shots. It had to be frustrating for the Senators, especially watching former Leafs stymie them again: Jamal Mayers opened the scoring with a quick shot under the crossbar. It was the game winner.

There's not really more to say here. Ottawa missed too many chances to claim they deserved to win, but at least they had the effort to generate them. Calgary outworked Ottawa in the little areas, and the sum of all those little victories was a big victory. The shot chart and highlights tell the story here. Speaking of which....

Shot Chart of Misery:

Just look at that. Nothing even near the crease, and that's what was needed to win this game.

Game Highlights:

Forthcoming

Next game is Saturday at Vancouver, and it should be a treat. All the remaining games can be considered must-wins if Ottawa expects to push for the Division title.

Game 68: Ottawa Senators @ Calgary Flames

2010-03-12T00:30:14Z

Next Game

Ottawa Senators
@ Calgary Flames

Thursday, Mar 11, 2010, 9:30 PM EST
Pengrowth Saddledome
Enemy: Matchsticks and Gasoline

Complete Coverage >

The Western road trip continues as the Ottawa Senators meet the Calgary Flames, who are currently on a three-game win streak. The Senators have not won a game in Calgary since January 9, 2003, although they did manage to beat the Flames in Ottawa earlier this season. The Flames are bound to be hungry, as they are still sitting in 8th place, just holding onto the last playoff position in the Western Conference.

Brian Elliott will start in net for the Senators. Miikka Kiprusoff starts for the Flames (I know, I was hoping for Toskala, too).

Be sure to join in on the fun in the comments during the game!

Silver Nuggets: Sens visit the Flames, Elliott starts

2010-03-11T17:14:01Z

UPDATE: Brian Elliott will start in net for the Senators. Chris Kelly missed the morning skate, but should be fine to go when the puck drops. (Mendes)
The Ottawa Senators last victory in Calgary, against the Flames? More than seven years ago. (Province)
With that in mind, the Sens are going to make sure not to underestimate the Flames tonight. (Sun)
Milks is the odd man out on the prediction panel again today; everyone else is calling for an Ottawa Senators win. (Citizen)
Daniel Alfredsson, Alex Kovalev, Andy Sutton and Matt Carkner all missed practice yesterday, but don't worry: They're expected to be in the lineup tonight. (Citizen)
Points are always important in the league, but they're especially important now, as the Senators try to keep pace (and overcome) the Sabres for the Northeast Division lead. (Citizen)

(Read more... )

UPDATE: The Flyers are only four points back of Ottawa, and they've got two games in hand, and they're climbing up the East quickly; will they catch Ottawa--or even Pittsburgh? (Broadstreet Hockey)
Rumours are out there that Anton Volchenkov's agent rejected a five-year contract extension offered by the Senators before the Olympics. Regardless of what happens, the Sens may also try to re-sign Sutton--both coming back would really be something. (Sun)
Neat interview with Peter Regin about hockey in Denmark. (Daily Observer)
Playoff hopes long gone, the B-Sens won their fourth straight road game on Wednesday against the Manchester Monarchs.Josh Hennessy scored 2G and 1A in the 4-1 win. (OSC)

What does the new "blindside hit rule" mean for the Senators?

2010-03-11T12:00:22Z

More photos » Frank Franklin II - AP

2 months ago: Ottawa Senators' Chris Neil (25) checks New York Rangers' Marc Staal during the first period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, Jan. 14, 2010, in New York. in the foreground is Ottawa goalie Mike Brodeur. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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On Wednesday, a group of NHL GMs finally came up with some sort of rule against headshots in the league, which they'll bring forward to the league's competition committee for final approval--apparently almost a technicality, given the support a rule against headshots has received from the members of the committee. The new rule, from SBN/NHL, has been phrased more to target blindside hits to the head:

"A lateral, back pressure or blindside hit to an opponent where the head is targeted and/or is the principal point of contact is not permitted. A violation of the above will result in a minor or major penalty and shall be reviewed for possible supplemental discipline."

So, what does this new rule mean for the Ottawa Senators? Well, first and foremost, it means our skilled players won't have to deal with vicious blindside hits, like this one from a few years back, when Daniel Alfredsson was hammered by Mark Bell after he put the puck on net. But it also means a couple of our players who walk the fine line between legal and not will have a new alignment to walk.

The Sens have two players who will have to take heed to this new 'blindside hit rule': Jarkko Ruutu and Chris Neil. Although the Sens fan in me puts these players on a level higher than players like Matt Cooke, whose hit on Marc Savard really gave this rule what it needed to get going, the realist in me acknowledges that both of these players have, in the recent past, thrown bodychecks that would be illegal under that new rule.

(Read more... )

Exhibit A in the Chris Neil file? His blindside hit on Chris Drury, then of the Buffalo Sabres, on February 22, 2007, which brought about the memorable line brawl featuring Ray Emery taking on Martin Biron:

The hit wasn't a headshot in the same way the Cooke-Savard and the Mike Richards-David Booth hits were: The principal point of contact in this hit is likely the chest, which climbs up to the head. It was, however, a blindside check on a vulnerable player by one exerting back-pressure.

Then there's Jarkko Ruutu, largely regarded as one of the most infuriating players in the league--but one who rarely crosses the line between playful heckling and dangerous bodychecks. He has, however, crossed that line before, including this hit on Patrick Kaleta from earlier this season (Dec. 16, 2009), coincidentally once again against Buffalo:

This was a blindside and a headshot, and fits the bill for hits the league would like to eliminate. Based on his reaction, it doesn't seem like Ruutu was intentionally gunning for Kaleta's head, but there's little doubt he wanted to throw a punishing hit on the Sabres' pest.

Will the blindside rule limit the effectiveness of either Neil or Ruutu? I don't think so. Both of the Senators' pests have thrown blindside hits in the past, but their pestiness is based on much more than that, particularly big, clean hits they can throw (in Neil's case) and an absolutely aggravating grin (Ruutu, obviously). But even if it does, it's worthwhile, because we won't have to deal with watching more star players carried off on stretchers--keeping Alfredsson from getting blindsided is more important than giving opponents fear for their safety and well-being.

Silver Nuggets: Oilers fans give stats analysis

2010-03-10T16:53:57Z

More photos » John Ulan - AP

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Hi everybody! Here are some Ottawa Senators stories for you to check out today:

Bruce McCurdy looks at just how dominant the Ottawa Senators were last night against the Edmonton Oilers. How about this: Ottawa had 40 offensive zone face offs, Edmonton had just 12. (Copper & Blue)
Derek Zona shows that it's not all rosy, though. He crunches a few other numbers to show how it really makes no sense that the Senators have been so successful given some of the team's mediocre statistics. (Copper & Blue)
Brandon Worley takes a quick look at the goaltending carousel in Ottawa. (Pro Hockey Talk)
The Citizen looks at the goaltending controversy and Clouston's decision to play Elliott because he has better numbers, despite Leclaire coming off a great game. Then, in traditional Ottawa newspaper fashion, it closes with a wistful mention of "the real goalie of the future, Swede Robin Lehner." (Citizen)
Speaking of Lehner, I can't remember if we posted this already but here's a month old interview with him that is a good read. (GM Hockey)
Wyshynski points out that Ryan Whitney should have gotten at least a double-minor for cross checking Chris Neil in the face last night. (Puck Daddy)

Senators remember how to win, beat Oilers 4-1

2010-03-10T05:31:56Z

More photos » John Ulan - AP

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The first period was dominated by Ottawa, but they were unable to take advantage of it because A) the powerplay was useless despite four chances (including a half-minute of 5-on-3), and B) goalie Jeff Deslauriers was on top of his game. The highlight of the period, though, was probably Brian Elliott stopping Mike Comrie on a penalty shot near the end of the period. A goal would have swung the momentum in Edmonton's favour, but Elliott didn't let it happen.

The second period, however, started with an Edmonton goal by Fernando Pisani in the first 5 minutes. The Ottawa Senators then took control of the game and near the end of the period Chris Kelly sniped one into the back of the twine -- except by "sniped" I mean shot from an impossible angle and got a fluke bounce.

That opened up the dam for the third period, so to speak, as the Senators managed to put three more past Deslauriers, including power play goals from Milan Michalek and Matt Cullen. Mike Fisher had the other goal for the Sens.

Although the Senators controlled the game, a lot of that can be credited to the Edmonton Oilers' undisciplined play. The Senators had 9 powerplay opportunities (including a couple of 5-on-3s), and so it's no wonder they dominated the shot count (39-19). The Senators are lucky that they got a couple of goals on powerplays in the third period, though, because their powerplay was miserable prior to it. The Senators desperately need to work on their powerplay so that they don't continue to blow as many chances as they did tonight.

Sens Heroes: Daniel Alfredsson, Erik Karlsson, Brian Elliott
Alfredsson didn't get any goals, but he managed to put up three helpers, including a dandy pass on the Milan Michalek goal. Karlsson moved the puck with incredible ease tonight and racked up two assists of his own while firing six shots on goal and logging a team high 23:30 of icetime. Brian Elliott deserves recognition for being solid when he had to be, and making that key save on the Comrie penalty shot.

Shot Chart!

Highlights:

Game 67: Ottawa Senators @ Edmonton Oilers

2010-03-10T00:30:13Z

Next Game

Ottawa Senators
@ Edmonton Oilers

Tuesday, Mar 9, 2010, 9:30 PM EST
Rexall Place
Enemy: The Copper & Blue

Complete Coverage >

The Senators start their road trip to Western Canada with a game against the cellar dwelling Edmonton Oilers. The Sens have not won a game since the Olympic break, so this seems like a good opportunity for the Senators to get back into a winning groove. Despite Edmonton's record and their long list of injuries, it won't be a cakewalk: Edmonton is currently riding a two-game winning streak which includes a win on Sunday against the New Jersey Devils.

Brian Elliott gets the start in net tonight, while Peter Regin and Daniel Alfredsson return to action after missing last game with the flu. Shean Donovan will sit out of tonight's game, with the lines looking something like this:

Michalek-Spezza-Alfredsson
Regin-Fisher-Kovalev
Kelly-Cullen-Neil
Ruutu-Winchester-Shannon

Which players will I be watching?

Brian Lee - he just signed a two-year deal, so eyes will be on Lee to show that he's worth the reported one-way contract.
Matt Cullen - Cullen has improved every game he's played with the Senators so far, and although I feel his skill is wasted playing with Kelly and Neil, I'm sure Clouston will juggle lines to find him some offensive talent to work with after a few shifts.
Andy Sutton - The other newcomer has also been very solid on the blueline, and I'm sure he'll be good for a few shot blocks and a big hit or two.
Brian Elliott - Pascal Leclaire played terrific in his last start, so the pressure is on Elliott to show that he should be the number one goalie going forward.
Jason Spezza - Going into the Olympic break, he had 12 goals in 13 games. He's had two assists but no goals since returning.
Anton Volchenkov - the A-Train has been off his game since the Olympic break, so here's hoping he starts to play like the Anton we all know and love.

As always, join in the comments during the game for good times.

Ottawa Senators Seasons In Review (1992-1993)

2010-03-09T20:36:38Z

So yeah, I see everybody posting long articles about this teams past and I thought to myself, how can I do the same without showing my large lack of Hockey knowledge? So here it is, a look into the past of the Sens (this Sens, not the very successful Sens that won a Stanley Cup, God damn Ducks), starting from our worst season.

1992-93 Ottawa Senators

10-70-4 (24 points), Finished 6th in NHL Adams Division

Scored 202 goals, Allowed 395 goals

Home record 9–29–4

Road record 1–41–0

Team leaders
Goals	Sylvain Turgeon (25)
Assists	Norm Maciver (46)
Points	Norm Maciver (63)
Penalties in minutes	Mike Peluso (318)
Plus/minus	Dave Archibald (-16)
Wins	Peter Sidorkiewicz (8)
Goals against average	Daniel Berthiaume (4.30)

Coach	Rick Bowness
Captain	Laurie Boschman
Alternate captains	Brad Marsh Brad Shaw Sylvain Turgeon

Awards

Molson Cup - Sylvain Turgeon
NHL All-Star Game selection - Brad Marsh, Peter Sidorkiewicz

Things were bad for the Sens even before the season started. At the 1992 Expansion Draft, Ottawa's laptop failed and they drafted many ineligible players. They wanted to draft players from both the Habs and Leafs, but couldn't because both teams have the max players (two) taken from them. The team they did draft, however, was nothing more than players who would have been 3rd or 4th linemen on any other team. And you thought Cheechoo was bad! For the draft, the Sens picked the very unknown (and future jackass) Alexei Yashin. Who would be the teams future captain (and first Dany Heatley).

A rare good thing that could be said about this team was they won their first game. Against the Habs no less! On October 8th, 1992, the Sens beat the Habs 5-3 in front of 10,449 at the sold-out Ottawa Civic Centre. The ceremonial face-off between Laurie Boschman and Denis Savard was done by Frank Finnigan, Jr. (his father having died on Christmas Day, 1991), Bruce Firestone and Gil Stein. It also had Brian Orser skating, the 9 banners being raised to honour the Senators' Stanley Cup wins (which we'll gladly take credit for) , retirement of Frank Finnigan's jersey number and the singing of the anthem by Alanis Morissette (holy hell!).

The rest of the season sucked, as the team was fighting with the Sharks in what is called the Daigle Cup. The Sens blew games, ask teams to start their best players, and even made weaker game-plans. NHL rules at the time made it so the worst team got the first pick, and Ottawa beat out the Sharks for the worst team in NHL (Go us!). Of course that rule was changed in 1995 as the NHL did it's best to copy the NBA whenever they had the chance. And things ended poorly their too. They drafted Alexandre Daigle, who sucked. But I'll talk about that later, if anyone is still reading this (looking good Pete, have you lost weight?).

Silver Nuggets: Elliott to start, playoff clinch watch

2010-03-09T17:01:18Z

Looks like Brian Elliott gets the start tonight. Jesse Winchester also will be in the lineup, with Shean Donovan sitting out. (Sens)
Even if we have concerns over Leclaire's physical state, at least he seems to be in the right mental state judging by his responses to questions from the media. (Sun)
The prediction panel is largely calling Ottawa over Edmonton tonight, with one exception: Milks from Black Aces thinks the Oilers will get the win. (Citizen)
A few Senators spoke out about headshots, particularly Matt Cooke's hit on Marc Savard, condemning the hits. (Citizen)

Maybe a bunch of Philadelphia Flyers will become Sens fans for the last part of the regular season, expecting the Flyers to finish sixth and hoping Ottawa finishes third to set up a first-round matchup. Apparently neither Ottawa's historical dominance over Philly nor shut-down defender 'Alexander Volchenkov' scare Pennsylvania columnists. (DelCo Times)
It's that time of year again: The playoff clinch-watch. I like to use Sports Club Stats, because they measure the exact possibility a team has of making the playoffs, based on possible outcomes dealing with every game around the league. According to them, only the Capitals have clinched, and the Oilers have been eliminated. Ottawa's got a 97.9% chance of making it. (SCS)
The Playoff Push takes a different approach, looking at the record a team can finish on to likely make the playoffs. Ottawa could go 7-7-2, and still probably make the playoffs. (From The Rink)

Justin Goldman on the current state of Senators goaltending

2010-03-09T12:00:25Z

More photos » Fred Chartrand - AP

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The hottest topic in Ottawa these days (as it has been for years) is the Ottawa Senators' goaltender situation, particularly with the playoffs quickly approaching. I was going to write a lengthy feature on the current state of Ottawa Senators netminding, but then I remembered that great maxim: can't someone else do it?

With that in mind, I managed to get the great goalkeeping mind of Justin Goldman to answer some questions for us. Justin is the founder of great netminder resource The Goalie Guild and a scout for McKeen's. It's a very lengthy write-up, but I encourage you to read through it all, because you won't find a more in-depth analysis of Ottawa Senators goaltending anywhere on the web or in print. Justin gives us his thoughts on Pascal Leclaire, Brian Elliott, Mike Brodeur, Robin Lehner, and much, much more. Enjoy!

Why has Pascal Leclaire underachieved in Ottawa so far? Is it attributable to his injury history, or is he simply not as good as his draft spot and 9 shutout season suggested he was?

Aside from the injuries and bouts with the flu, Leclaire hasn’t lived up to expectations this season because of his inability to play with enough consistency in his limited chances. Not once has he won more than two games in a row all season long. Whether it was due to being sick, rehabbing or failing to win three in a row, Leclaire hasn’t created enough momentum or confidence in his game in order to own the crease. And without consistent starts, he has been unable to get into a good goaltending rhythm.

Trying to determine where Leclaire’s current value ranks related to his draft spot is futile because NHL goalies are drafted in every round and many more are undrafted. One of the most interesting yet difficult aspects of scouting goaltenders is that their rate of development is not only unique to the individual goalie, but it’s also constantly changing. Goalies can develop really fast for a few months and then not at all for a few years, or it could be the complete opposite or anywhere in between. It all just depends on their situation and their day-to-day results.

So where a goalie is drafted does not really matter when it comes to success. But for argument’s sake, I would say that Leclaire has failed to live up to his high draft spot. It’s not his fault though – injuries are just a part of being human. It’s a risk all teams and players take. I would also say that he should have never been drafted that soon in the first place, but that’s another story.

His success in Columbus stemmed from being on a young and talented team where head coach Ken Hitchcock employed a strong and structured defensive system. Leclaire was not facing nearly as many scoring opportunities on average in a game, so therefore it was much easier to perform consistently and he was able to log a ton of minutes and play in a strong rhythm. That, combined with his relatively good health, allowed him to post such great statistics and so many impressive shutouts.

Without going into too much detail, there’s also the issue of Leclaire’s past injuries. Although I’m no medical scientist, I have done enough research and talked to enough athletic trainers to know the negative impact a torn meniscus can have on a goalie. With a position that relies so much on the knees in order to be effective in the butterfly, this is a devastating injury for Leclaire to have suffered. To be honest, it’s almost impossible to play exactly the same after a serious meniscus tear.

I can’t speak on the severity of Leclaire’s meniscus tear or ankle injury, but because he’s a smaller goalie that relies on reflexes, sharp reactions and extreme flexibility to stop pucks, the injuries are impacting his future more than a team would want.

If you're Cory Clouston, which goalie do you ride until and during the playoffs: Brian Elliott or Pascal Leclaire. Why? (Basically -- who is the better goaltender right now?)

I would ride Brian Elliott without a doubt. He’s a young goaltender that will play better if he’s given positive reinforcement from the coaching staff, his teammates and even the fans. The more that the organization gets behind him, the more relaxed and confident he will play. The key is for the coaches to stay away from negative reinforcement. If he competes well and makes some timely saves in a tough one-goal loss, that does not mean he should be automatically benched in favor of Leclaire. At the same time, he should not be rewarded if he makes a lot of mental mistakes or fails to give his team a chance to win.

If Leclaire is able to take advantage of some bad games by Elliott and actually put together more than two solid efforts in a row, the coaching staff would be smart to make their decisions on a day-by-day and practice-by-practice basis. Whichever goalie plays with more energy, focus and confidence should ultimately start in the hopes once catches fire heading into the playoffs. If I had to choose one, however, I would easily put my faith in Elliott, as he has continued to develop nicely over the last two years and is capable of going on another long winning streak at any time. Jonas Hiller did the same thing last year, but only because the organization recognized the talent and ability was there and they gave Hiller most of the starts over Giguere.

Both Elliott and Leclaire have contracts that expire at the end of next season. Elliott will be a restricted free agent, Leclaire an unrestricted free agent. If the Senators can only afford to sign one, who should they go with? (Basically, who is the better bet long term?)

Once next season is halfway over, the organization should have a much clearer picture of Leclaire’s health and Elliott’s progression. In my opinion, I think the future will be very clear. Leclaire won’t be worth the money to re-sign long-term, especially because of his band-aid boy status. Elliott also makes the most sense to retain because Robin Lehner is the (very bright) future of the organization, so it will just be a matter of biding time until he’s NHL ready. There’s no point in spending money on a injury-prone goalie when you can save that cap money, spend less on Elliott and have even more for Lehner.

Where does Mike Brodeur fit into the Senators organization? He's played great in his few NHL call-ups, but will he ever be an NHL goalie?

Mike Brodeur has been an inspirational story for goaltenders everywhere, including myself. He’s an extremely hard-working individual with great mental toughness and very solid skills. Unfortunately, due to his age, he’s not considered very valuable for most organizations. He’s an excellent goalie to have in the locker room and could easily be a backup on just about any NHL team. But because the focus for teams is on young goalies with extremely high potential, it’s very unlikely Brodeur ever becomes anything more than an NHL backup.

That being said, anything can happen. If you wanted to relate him to another goalie that has thrived in the twilight of his pro career, just look at Scott Clemmensen. He was a backup his whole life until Martin Brodeur went down with the torn biceps injury. The rest was history and Clemmensen was able to extend his career for a few more years down in Florida. There’s no reason Mike Brodeur can’t do the same thing. At least now the organization has confidence in him and will not hesitate to throw him in the crease if the situation arises. And I’m more than confident he would be very successful as well.

Your website lists Robin Lehner as the 9th best goalie prospect in your Top-100 Prospects list. Could you expand on Lehner's qualities as a goalie? Also, what do you predict for his future? Is he ready for the AHL next year? Do you feel he has it in him to be a starting goaltender someday at the NHL level? How long until he would be ready for the NHL?

Just to clarify, my Top-100 Prospects Rankings is for fantasy keeper leagues and a feature aimed at my School of Block fantasy hockey articles, not straight up talent or potential, so the ranking should be taken from a long-term perspective. That being said, Lehner is still one of the better highly-touted European goalies out there and has the potential to be an elite #1 goalie in the NHL. A mini-scouting report on Lehner would read like this:

Lehner is one of the best goalies in his age group when it comes to matching quickness with size. He has a daunting presence in the net that fills up more holes than most goalies, especially when he’s confident and at the top of his crease. His butterfly is a little bit wider than average, so he will need to work on straightening his back and having better balance and stronger net coverage and lateral movement while on his knees. Similar to other raw European goalies, his stance needs to be refined over the course of a few more seasons and his energy and excitement in the crease needs to be channeled more effectively. But for his size, he’s very quick and has good active hands, which take away the corners and covers holes on the ice effectively. You can tell he has received a lot of elite, structured coaching from his father, Michael Lehner, as it shows in Robin’s technique and overall execution. Michael is Henrik Lundqvist’s former goalie coach, so Robin has been highly influenced by both of them.

Since this is his first season playing in North America, you can expect two more seasons in the OHL before turning pro and heading to the AHL. Other doors could open and things could happen sooner but I think you’re looking at three more years before he’s NHL ready. He has the potential to not only be a #1 goalie in the NHL, but be an elite long-term keeper.

How does the Senators' goaltending depth compare to other NHL teams?

I would say it’s one of the weaker depth charts in the NHL. If you check the Senators’ website, they have zero goalies listed under their prospects page and I’m wondering if that’s a mistake or proof they need some goalies in the system. Lehner is certainly a prized prospect that has only scratched the surface of his potential, but other than Elliott and maybe Chris Holt, there’s not much to get excited about. Brodeur is too old to be considered a prospect and Andy Chiodo has bounced all over the place in the last few seasons. In fact, he was just sent down to Elmira in the ECHL, so it looks more and more like Holt is sticking in Binghamton. It would serve the Senators well to draft or acquire some prospects this summer.

Finally, if you're Bryan Murray, what round do you grab a goaltender in this year's draft, if at all?

I would take 2-3 goalies in different rounds depending on what’s available and be sure to draft at least one European talent from Finland or Sweden. There has been a growing trend of European goalies being drafted and promptly placed into the CHL, where many of them seem to thrive and blossom much more than originally expected.

Two goalies will probably be drafted in the first round this summer – Jack Campbell and Calvin Pickard. There are more quality eligible goalies out there, but I would take one named Jussi Rynnas in 4^th or 5^th round. He’s put together a surprising season for a very weak team (Assat) and has turned heads in a hurry, very similar to what Jonas Gustavsson did last season with Farjestad.

We'd like to extend a huge thank you to Justin for donating his time to do this. We really, really appreciate it, and encourage you to check out the Goalie Guild site or their Twitter feed for the best goaltending coverage on the web.

Senators sign Brian Lee (!!) to two year contract

2010-03-08T18:52:26Z

More photos » Carlos Osorio - AP

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While everyone was holding their breath to see if Anton Volchenkov will be signed to an extension by the Ottawa Senators, Bryan Murray decided to hand out a deal to another blueliner: Brian Lee. I didn't see it coming either, and I'm sure fellow writer Mark Parisi is even more shocked.

Mark's take: Holy crap!

Lee has been signed to a two-year contract, but there are no details as to whether it's a one-way or two-way deal. He split time between the AHL and NHL this season, playing 18 games with the big club. He was scheduled to be an RFA at the end of the year.

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Brian Lee	18	2	1	3	-2	8	0	0	0	0	21	9.5

The signing of Lee makes for an interesting fight on the Senators blue line next season. The Senators now have 5 defensemen who have spent time in the NHL this season under contract for next year: Chris Phillips, Filip Kuba, Erik Karlsson, Matt Carkner, and Brian Lee. Chris Campoli will be a Restricted Free Agent on July 1st, while Anton Volchenkov and Andy Sutton are set to become Unrestricted Free Agents. 2009 First Round Draft pick Jared Cowen also recently signed an entry level deal and will be auditioning for a spot on the big club in September.