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USA v Honduras World Cup Qualifier - Gamethread

2013-06-18T23:30:05Z

Just one week ago the eyes of American soccer looked to Seattle. Now, they look to Utah where the United States will try to further firm a spot in Brazil 2014. The opponent is of particular interest to Seattle Sounders fans as Mario Martinez transitions from Olympics star to full team role-player with the Honduras National Team.

Brad Evans is almost certain to start, which could create a situation where he plays for the home and away team in the same stadium in under a week. Eddie Johnson could start wide left, where there are questions due to the suspension of Beasley. It is the space where he made his mark in the previous round of qualifiers.

We wanted to come to Salt Lake ... because we know that it's a very good environment here for soccer. - Jurgen Klinsmann

This week Salt Lake City, Utah gets to feature as the host of America soccer. Like Seattle, they look to make a strong impression to a nation that generally thinks of them as a kind of mountain backwater. Like Seattle, the fans will sound off while covered in Red, White and Blue.

America sits on top of the Hex, above rival Mexico and ahead of the rest of CONCACAF. Powerful at home, Jurgen looks for another three points and a full nine in this Qualifying window. With one of Honduras' best striker quitting and returning to the Revolution the job is easier, but not easy.

At 5:30 PM Pacific ESPN starts their coverage of the match. Kick will be shortly after six.

Utah, give us proof through the night.

Inside The Numbers: Sounders vs. MLS vs. Europe

2013-06-18T22:18:42Z

In the first post on this subject we looked at how MLS looked - from a statistical perspective - compared to the major European leagues (La Liga, Ligue 1, EPL, Bundesliga, Seria A). Of course, that analysis is not necessarily useful as it was taking league averages from approximately 20 teams per each league of varying quality. Also, it is very debatable how informative statistics like shots per game and even passes per game really are. That said, if taken with a grain of salt, there is certainly knowledge to be gleaned.

This post will look at how MLS teams compare to one another. Additionally, the rank next to each metric reflects that MLS team's rank compared to all 117 teams that comprise the five European leagues (in addition to MLS). Note: these statistics do not take into account the games played over the weekend of June 15/16. Also, long ball %, short pass %, and cross % are represented as % of total passes. The % may not total to 100% exactly because I excluded "through balls" from this analysis as they were insignificant.

Team	Shots pg	r	Shots OT pg	r	Shots conceded pg	r	Possession%	r
CD Chivas USA	10.2	109	3.5	104	15.9	111	47.5	78
Chicago Fire	12.6	62	4.1	69	12.6	50	44.5	105
Colorado Rapids	12.6	60	3.7	93	12	37	49.2	60
Columbus Crew	13.7	35	4.8	35	11.8	31	48.9	63
DC United	9.8	114	2.8	117	14.4	93	50.8	46
FC Dallas	11.9	79	4.9	28	12.4	46	47.1	82
Houston Dynamo	12.6	61	4.1	67	12.9	58	49.6	55
L.A. Galaxy	13.8	33	4.9	32	9.8	8	52.5	37
Montreal Impact	12.1	73	5.1	25	15.7	106	48.4	70
New England Rev.	9.9	113	3.5	105	12.7	52	45.5	98
New York Red Bulls	12.6	59	4.1	70	12.4	45	51.4	44
Philadelphia Union	12.9	52	4	79	12.8	56	48.4	69
Portland Timbers	14.4	26	5.2	21	11.8	29	57.1	11
Real Salt Lake	14.7	19	5.9	12	12.3	44	57.3	9
San Jose Earthquakes	13.5	40	4.2	64	11.3	24	48.9	64
Seattle Sounders FC	11.2	89	3.8	88	13.8	78	51	45
Sporting Kansas City	14.6	22	4.4	51	8.5	2	56.1	16
Toronto FC	9.8	115	3.2	110	12.5	49	47	84
Vancouver Whitecaps	13.7	34	4.8	37	13.3	67	47.1	81

Team	Open Play Goals %	r	Pass Success%	r	Cross %	r	Long Balls %	r	Short Passes %	r
CD Chivas USA	76.9%	13	71.6	112	5.1%	37	16.4%	25	78.0%	96
Chicago Fire	66.7%	56	73.1	106	5.4%	27	13.9%	71	80.2%	55
Colorado Rapids	53.3%	104	75.0	91	4.4%	81	16.5%	20	78.8%	89
Columbus Crew	53.8%	99	74.0	100	3.9%	105	16.6%	17	78.5%	92
DC United	50.0%	110	75.9	84	4.8%	57	16.4%	26	78.3%	94
FC Dallas	47.8%	112	74.7	95	5.1%	39	16.8%	14	77.3%	103
Houston Dynamo	70.6%	39	74.3	97	5.0%	44	14.9%	50	79.9%	64
L.A. Galaxy	61.9%	79	77.0	77	5.4%	28	14.9%	48	79.0%	84
Montreal Impact	72.7%	32	78.1	61	3.1%	116	14.4%	62	81.3%	36
New England Rev.	80.0%	7	73.7	102	3.3%	112	15.6%	38	80.5%	48
New York Red Bulls	65.2%	63	78.6	50	4.5%	79	12.5%	94	82.4%	23
Philadelphia Union	52.6%	105	75.8	88	5.0%	41	14.5%	58	79.7%	68
Portland Timbers	68.2%	50	80.0	33	4.6%	70	12.0%	101	82.8%	18
Real Salt Lake	78.9%	8	79.8	35	3.3%	113	12.3%	97	84.0%	10
San Jose Earthquakes	69.2%	46	72.3	111	6.7%	3	17.1%	10	75.9%	112
Seattle Sounders FC	77.8%	12	77.6	71	4.3%	88	13.6%	77	81.3%	35
Sporting Kansas City	50.0%	109	77.7	67	4.7%	64	15.9%	33	79.3%	76
Toronto FC	66.7%	55	72.4	109	4.9%	48	17.6%	5	77.3%	104
Vancouver Whitecaps	81.3%	4	78.2	58	4.8%	54	15.7%	35	79.0%	83

Team	Aerials Won pg	r	Dribbles pg	r	Fouled pg	r	Offsides pg	r	Tackles pg	r	Interceptions pg	r	Fouls pg	r
CD Chivas USA	14.8	83	7.2	62	11.7	86	1.9	103	18	107	22.9	16	15	40
Chicago Fire	16.4	51	8	51	11.1	97	2.7	49	20.3	64	24.8	11	11.3	102
Colorado Rapids	20.6	7	6.4	78	11.7	88	2.6	54	19.6	76	20.3	27	13.1	72
Columbus Crew	19.5	15	5.2	104	12.8	67	2.1	93	20.5	61	28.3	5	12.8	79
DC United	14.6	86	6.1	86	11.5	92	3	24	20.1	67	26.2	7	10.3	114
FC Dallas	16.9	42	7.1	64	13.4	50	2.6	52	17.9	110	25.3	10	11.5	97
Houston Dynamo	18.9	20	5.2	107	10.3	109	1.9	106	19.7	73	23.1	14	11.5	98
L.A. Galaxy	13.4	102	5.8	91	12.5	70	1.5	117	18.8	97	22.4	17	11.8	94
Montreal Impact	12.8	109	8.1	45	12.3	75	4.1	2	18.8	95	27.1	6	10.5	111
New England Rev.	14.0	94	8.2	42	11.8	85	2	99	19.1	90	29.6	2	13.2	71
New York Red Bulls	16.1	56	7.1	66	9.2	116	3.4	13	19.9	72	24.3	12	12.9	76
Philadelphia Union	12.1	114	7.7	57	11.0	99	1.9	104	20.3	63	25.4	9	13.8	58
Portland Timbers	19.8	10	7.6	58	12.0	81	3.4	11	20.3	65	23	15	12.4	83
Real Salt Lake	13.2	105	5.7	95	10.6	105	1.8	112	19.7	74	23.9	13	11.3	103
San Jose Earthquakes	24.1	3	6	87	11.6	91	2.5	64	21.5	46	25.5	8	11.9	91
Seattle Sounders FC	19.8	11	8.5	37	12.1	77	3.3	17	22.6	32	32	1	12.6	82
Sporting Kansas City	22.8	4	6.5	76	12.6	69	1.7	114	20.8	57	29.4	3	14.9	42
Toronto FC	18.7	22	7	68	12.2	76	2	98	21.7	42	19.2	38	13.8	59
Vancouver Whitecaps	15.2	75	8.4	39	11.1	96	1.8	111	16.8	115	28.5	4	11.8	93

I even found a European doppelganger for Seattle, based on a similarity score algorithm I ran: Torino.

Team	Possession%	Shots pg	Shots OT pg	Dribbles pg	Tackles pg	Cross %	Long Ball %	Short Pass %
Seattle Sounders FC	50.3	10.8	3.7	8.3	23.4	4%	14%	82%
Torino	49.6	11.3	3.8	8.1	23.7	4%	14%	82%

Bonus: Updated Sounders Passing Chart (with pass distance)

POS	PLAYER	Minutes	Succ. Passes / 90 Min	Total Passes	Pass %	Avg Pass Distance (Meters)	Total Long Balls	Long Ball % Succ.	Pass Usage Rate / 90 minutes
M	Alonso	682	55	475	88%	20	70	79%	14.1%
M	Joseph	310	53	220	83%	19	21	71%	14.4%
M	Rose	532	34	255	79%	18	19	47%	9.7%
M	Martinez	470	32	215	79%	20	24	58%	9.3%
M	Carrasco	701	32	318	78%	21	50	58%	9.2%
D	Gonzalez	1062	32	516	72%	21	65	32%	9.8%
M	Evans	660	32	298	78%	18	23	43%	9.1%
D	Scott	462	31	209	76%	23	41	71%	9.1%
D	Burch	223	29	111	65%	28	28	25%	10.1%
F	Zakuani	468	28	174	84%	15	11	73%	7.5%
D	Yedlin	1169	27	458	78%	19	40	35%	7.9%
D	Hurtado	900	27	311	86%	20	33	55%	7.0%
F	Estrada	254	26	91	80%	12	1	100%	7.2%
F	Johnson	690	25	247	77%	14	8	75%	7.2%
M	Caskey	341	25	122	77%	17	13	54%	7.2%
D	Traore	1170	24	394	79%	23	63	44%	6.8%
M	Rosales	871	22	282	75%	18	17	35%	6.5%
F	Martins	546	22	168	79%	14	10	90%	6.2%
F	Ochoa	175	22	53	79%	14	3	67%	6.1%
F	Neagle	743	16	198	68%	15	10	30%	5.4%
GK	Gspurning	1170	10	225	58%	41	145	39%	3.9%
Totals			345	5340	78%	20	695	50%

Sounders Academy teams learn Playoff opponents

2013-06-18T20:00:05Z

With two former Academy players taking the step to the pro ranks this past year the dozens more will look to make their mark in the USSDA Group Stage. Frisco, Texas and FC Dallas play host to the Summer Playoffs so one challenge will be the heat. The bigger challenge will be facing off against the best of the national Academy system when only the best team of the four team groups advance to the knockout stage.

The U18s face PDA (a Union affiliate), Real So Cal and the IMG Academy. PDA put forward a strong season with a 19-3-3 +34 GD record to finish second in the Atlantic. Their leading scorer is forward Alec Neumann with 17 goals. Real So Cal (not related to RSL) finished third in the Southwest at 17-7-4 +14. IMG was fourth in the Southeast at 13-7-5 +26.

Seattle's 18s were led by Jordan Morris' 25 goals in 25 games, which was good for second in the nation. At 16-6-6 the Sounders were second in the Northwest to Vancouver and had a +30 goal differential.

The younger Sounders are in slightly tougher group with the powerful Crew Soccer Academy Wolves (19-4-4 +29), Real So Cal (17-8-3 +30) and Orlando City SC (13-8-4 +7). It will be a bit of a compounded challenge as a few kids that qualify as 16s for Seattle play up at the 18 level. Still, the youngest formal team of the organization (there is a pre-Academy and next year a U14 starts) went 17-4-7 +30.

Again, to advance a team must win its Group. While there is little rivalry in these matches, unlike games against Portland, Vancouver and Crossfire in the regular season, there is pressure. Scouts for both pro and college sides will be watching the matches as well.

Transfer rumor: Fredy Montero heading to Portugal?

2013-06-18T17:17:25Z

If the amount of noise in the rumor mill is any indication, Fredy Montero is lining up a move to somewhere in Europe. Where, exactly, is still very much in question.

The latest rumor is that Montero has an offer from an unnamed team in Portugal -- or, at least, that's how MLSsoccer.com is translating a report from Colombia's Antena 2. Honestly, I've listened to the interview a couple times and still haven't quite picked up where they mention Portugal, but I'll defer to someone with a far better level of fluency.

In any case, this is the second time in the past few weeks that a European team is rumored to be checking out Montero. Last time it was Turkey's Besiktas that was convinced they had found the "new Falcao."

Based on this latest report, it would seem as though the Sounders are the ones engineering the move. The report mentions the fact that Montero's loan to Millonarios can be terminated before the end of the calendar year, which would potentially allow him to make this move prior to the 2013-14 European season. The assumption here is that the Sounders could allow Montero to transfer without his reported $4 million buyout clause being triggered.

It's worth noting that Montero's loan to Millonarios has not exactly gone as hoped. The forward scored seven goals in 29 matches across all competitions and doesn't seem to be any closer to cracking the Colombian national team than he was before the move. If he can make a move to a decent European club, more power to him.

Either way, the chances of Montero returning to the Sounders for the 2014 MLS season are starting to look slim.

Episode 101: One last look back before looking ahead

2013-06-18T15:00:05Z

With no game over the weekend we look back at week that was in Seattle soccer, discussing our feelings and reactions to the US game. We also look ahead to the Sounders returning to play against Real Salt Lake, discuss the status of Osvaldo Alonso and what Sigi might do when he has a healthy roster with some legitimate selections decisions to make.

We're joined by Shawn Wheeler, chapter president of American Outlaws Seattle, to look back at the USMNT game against Panama. We also discuss the chapter's history, what went into the game day events and presentation and where things go from here.

We also answer listener questions, including a few that we weren't able to get to on the 100th episode. We've also got another of edition of the Question of the Week, presented by Golazo.

Download | Duration: 01:25:11 | iTunes | Stitcher

This week's music: Perry Como - "Seattle", Young the Giant - "Cough Syrup", Traffic - "Rock & Roll Stew", Woody Guthrie - "Roll on Columbia".

Major Link Soccer: USMNT Salt Lake, National Stadium?

2013-06-18T14:00:06Z

This week, Sigi Schmid is mulling over what to do at the right back spot in the absence of DeAndre Yedlin. In consideration are Zach Scott (MAN MARKER!) and Brad Evans, who will be coming off another National Team performance (in Salt Lake). Over the next four days, it would behoove him to get one of those punch cards at the local Subway and just go wild for the whole team, then get his freebee over the weekend when the team flies back. Would it be of extra benefit for Evans to play the same position on the same field twice in four days? Maybe psychologically.

In other Mens National Team news, Jermaine Jones has been cleared to play at Rio TInto against Honduras, though there's no guarantee that he will in fact take the field. There are a LOT of players on yellow cards, so all hands will be on deck until further notice (aka REST of the QUALIFYING MATCHES). Rio Tinto, as we know, is one of several homes for the Nats this season (and every). There is serious talk about establishing a home stadium, and Seattle is one of the candidates mentioned by someone close to the team. It wouldn't be the first time a country as big as the states had a home pitch, but places like Russia and China don't have two well populated coasts to worry about.

There seem to be few positives to an MLS club pairing up with a big foreign club. One of the cool ones would be having friendlies with that team and having all the fans show up to root for the two. Chivas... they don't get it. Guadalajara came to the Stub Hub Center for a match, and yet it wasn't even open for people to watch. Chivas USA may not be popular, but wouldn't their big brothers have at least sold a few tickets? This is so confusing...

Vancouver's Kenny Miller may have been player of the week for his terrific performance against the New England Revolution on Saturday. Miller scored twice in the 4-3 win, both of which are excellent contenders for goal of the week. That's right. Kenny Miller is splitting the vote against himself.

I'm kind of fed up with posting these sad stories about involved soccer fans and professionals dying or being abused. We've got some resolution in the killing of a Dutch linesman, but there's going to be another story just like it next month. And the month after. Can we all just agree to stop?

Even as the Confederations Cup has its problems (some countries just don't belong) this year's installment had some encouraging television ratings.

You know what they say about ECS' official beer? They say it has No Equal. It seems that a panel of Washington beer aficionados agree.

Crunchy Power Rankings: Week 17

2013-06-18T00:30:05Z

Another month of stats accumulated and it's time to take another look at the Crunchy Power Rankings. In the last update most of the teams had gained points, so predictably most teams lost points in this edition. Hello, regression.

Here's the updated rankings, with a little analysis below:

Team	Duels	Box Shots	Off Pass %	Recoveries	Total
Sporting Kansas City	0.99	3.49	11.59	5.74	90 (-4)
Sporting Kansas City	10th	1st	1st	2nd	90 (-4)
New York Red Bulls	2.75	2.39	5.4	4.01	77 (--)
New York Red Bulls	3rd	2nd	4th	5th	77 (--)
San Jose Earthquakes	3.78	1.61	-3.12	4.84	69 (-13)
San Jose Earthquakes	2nd	4th	12th	3rd	69 (-13)
Portland Timbers	1.56	0.64	7.69	3.78	68 (-6)
Portland Timbers	9th	6th	3rd	6th	68 (-6)
Chicago Fire	2.41	0.32	-3.29	6.46	65 (+2)
Chicago Fire	4th	9th	13th	1st	65 (+2)
Colorado Rapids	2.18	1.76	2.59	-3.57	54 (+17)
Colorado Rapids	7th	3rd	6th	17th	54 (+17)
LA Galaxy	0.11	1.51	4.87	-3.3	53 (-13)
LA Galaxy	11th	5th	5th	16th	53 (-13)
Real Salt Lake	-4.77	0.64	8.33	0.74	53 (+2)
Real Salt Lake	17th	7th	2nd	8th	53 (+2)
Houston Dynamo	-0.99	0.47	-8.09	4.08	51 (-19)
Houston Dynamo	13th	8th	18th	4th	51 (-19)
Columbus Crew	2.27	-0.03	1.09	-1.04	50 (-10)
Columbus Crew	6th	10th	8th	11th	50 (-10)
Vancouver Whitecaps	2.36	-0.84	-0.98	-1.42	43 (-10)
Vancouver Whitecaps	5th	14th	9th	13th	43 (-10)
FC Dallas	-2.23	-0.16	-2.3	-0.85	40 (-29)
FC Dallas	14th	11th	11th	10th	40 (-29)
Philadelphia Union	-3.08	-0.65	-3.44	1.31	40 (-11)
Philadelphia Union	16th	13th	15th	7th	40 (-11)
Seattle Sounders FC	1.97	-2.54	1.82	-0.68	39 (-6)
Seattle Sounders FC	8th	17th	7th	9th	39 (-6)
New England Revolution	-4.92	-0.59	-3.31	-1.12	33 (+6)
New England Revolution	18th	12th	14th	12th	33 (+6)
Toronto FC	5.84	-1.28	-3.9	-7.78	31 (+7)
Toronto FC	1st	15th	16th	18th	31 (+7)
Montreal Impact	-0.35	-1.79	-10.38	-2.22	25 (-9)
Montreal Impact	12th	16th	19th	14th	25 (-9)
D.C. United	-2.36	-3.15	-2.1	-2.23	22 (-12)
D.C. United	15th	19th	10th	15th	22 (-12)
Chivas USA	-5.69	-2.64	-5.6	-7.94	5 (-12)
Chivas USA	19th	18th	17th	19th	5 (-12)

The biggest drop since the last update is courtesy of FC Dallas, who are now firmly in the bottom half of the CPR despite currently sitting atop the Supporters Shield standings. Is it possible for a below-average team to lead the Shield standings in late June? Sure, why not? Even a cursory look at Goal Differential shows FCD tied with 4 other teams for 3rd, so they're a goal away from being 7th by GD, which closely correlates to standings over a season. Also, the CPR rankings weight recent results more heavily and the Toros only have two wins in their last seven, well off the early season pace that got them to the top. I'll be shocked if they're still at the top of the table next time the CPR is updated.

The biggest gainer is Colorado, who just lost a testy match to San Jose but otherwise are undefeated in their last eight.

Chivas took a big drop from their already last place and now have 5 total CPR points. I haven't gone back and looked, but I'm pretty sure that's the lowest score ever. Congrats to them. And things aren't getting any easier as they're shipping off starters to their parent club and getting nothing in return. Imagine being a DC United fan and getting less than half the points per game of the trainwreck that is Chivas. Hard times.

The biggest deviation from the real standings (other than Dallas) is Montreal, who the CPR has never liked but who've been around the top of the table all season. As always, it's an open question as to whether they have a particular style of play that the CPR weighting just misses or whether they're just getting lucky and will eventually revert to what the statistics predict. When a deviation this big goes on this long I tend to lean to the former explanation, but MLSSoccer.com just published an article today that provides some evidence for the 'luck' explanation. I encourage you to read it, but the short version is that Opta calculated what the standings would look like if every shot that hit the goal frame actually went in for a goal (all else being equal). I think we can all agree that the difference between a shot going just into the net or just missing and hitting off the post is both incredibly important and incredibly susceptible to random variation. And it turns out if they all went in, Montreal would have a record of 5-4-4, have 7 fewer points, and be in the bottom half of the table. That's the largest effect on any team in the league. If I were a betting man, I wouldn't have my money on the Impact maintaining that good fortune and staying near the top of the table.

And finally the Sounders-specific update. CPR really doesn't like them. Sorry about that. I've discussed previously that they were getting killed in Recoveries and they've actually turned that around some since the early season, but now the problem is net shots in the box, where they're third worst in the league ahead of only Chivas and DC United. That's not good company to be in. But I think much of that is driven by the total shellacking at the hands of the Galaxy, when Seattle was outshot in the box 13-1. So if you think that game was just an anomaly, there's hope that its results will get averaged out and they'll start climbing the rankings.

Sounders fans apparently refusing to stuff All-Star Game ballot box

2013-06-17T23:05:25Z

Despite having the largest fan base and the fifth best points-per-game average in MLS, the Seattle Sounders are not doing particularly well in the All-Star fan voting. DeAndre Yedlin ranks the highest of any of the six Sounders nominated, and he currently is sixth among defenders. Eddie Johnson is the only other player to merit a mention, and he ranks seventh among forwards.

Here are the recently released rankings:

Top 5 Goalkeepers	Top 7 Defenders	Top 7 Midfielders	Top 7 Forwards
1. Luis Robles (NY)	1. Matt Besler (SKC)	1. Graham Zusi (SKC)	1. Chris Wondolowski (SJ)
2. Jimmy Nielsen (SKC)	2. Omar Gonzalez (LA)	2. Mike Magee (CHI)	2. Thierry Henry (NY)
3. Raul Fernandez (DAL)	3. Aurelien Collin (SKC)	3. Kyle Beckerman (RSL)	3. Robbie Keane (LA)
4. Troy Perkins (MTL)	4. Matteo Ferrari (MTL)	4. Will Johnson (POR)	4. Landon Donovan (LA)
5. Nick Rimando (RSL)	5. Jamison Olave (NY)	5. Tim Cahill (NY)	5. Marco DiVaio (MTL)
	6. DeAndre Yedlin (SEA)	6. Patrice Bernier (MTL)	6. Jack McInerney (PHI)
	7. Michael Harrington (POR)	7. Justin Mapp (MTL)	7. Eddie Johnson (SEA)

The cause of this seemingly counter-intuitive voting table can be any number of things, but at least one explanation would seem to be that this game is really seen as a glorified friendly. And frankly, that's what it is. Sure, it was cool that the MLS All-Stars happened to beat Chelsea in last year's game, and it was even cooler that Eddie Johnson scored the game-winner, but does anyone really believe that the result earned MLS respect?

Of course not.

This is a game that is played in the relative middle of the MLS season that is really nothing more than a chance to sell some extra tickets and maybe draw a halfway decent TV rating. It is not a competitive match to any greater degree than any other friendly that a MLS team plays against a big-name opponent.

Given all that, it's shouldn't come as a huge surprise that Sounders fans are not exactly stuffing the ballot box. We here at Sounder at Heart like to take credit for popularizing the "Trophies not friendlies" ethos and that would seem to have carried over to the voting box.

It's also worth pointing out that just because the Sounders aren't doing well in the fan voting that they will be shut out of the game altogether or even the starting lineup. The bulk of the roster as well as the starters are actually picked by the coaches, and while the fan voting is basically a popularity contest (vote here), there's at least some modicum of meritocracy to those honors.