Swish Appeal

Dream, Silver Stars Trade Analysis: Snow Fills Rebounding Needs

2010-03-11T20:50:19Z

When I spoke with Silver Stars General Manager Dan Hughes in February, he was very clear about the fact that the team needed rebounding help.

San Antonio Free Agency Breakdown: An Opportunity to Fill Rebounding Needs - Swish Appeal
With a roster that included two of the league’s top 5 scorers in 2009 (guard Becky Hammon and forward Sophia Young) as well as the player with the third highest field goal percentage (center Ann Wauters) finding someone to score was certainly not a problem. However, despite playing a style of team basketball that would please most basketball purists, they weren’t exactly perfect last season.

The Silver Stars finished last in rebounding differential last season (-4.0), last in defensive rebounding percentage (67.8%), and third from last in offensive rebounding percentage (25.4%). In other words, it could be said that rebounding was by far the team’s biggest weakness.

"It is an area of concern and we will try to address it through free agency," said Hughes. "I do think it’s something we would like to address."

Rather than addressing the concern through free agency, the Silver Stars have bolstered their rebounding by trading for Michelle Snow.

Although Snow only averaged 4.26 rebounds per game (just inside the top 50 in the WNBA) in 2009, she was 7th in total rebounding percentage. As one of the best all-around rebounders in the league when on the court, she's a solid fit for the Silver Stars.

Most importantly is what this means for the Silver Stars' big picture.

While Snow is one of the league's top all-around rebounders, Laura Harper whom the Silver Stars added through the dispersal draft is one of the league's top offensive rebounders and a player Hughes is excited about.

San Antonio Free Agency Breakdown: An Opportunity to Fill Rebounding Needs - Swish Appeal
They Silver Stars have already re-signed Ruth Riley and added center Laura Harper through the dispersal draft, who just happened to have the 6th highest offensive rebounding percentage in the league last year.

"I think we got a big jump on [the rebounding] in the dispersal draft with Laura Harper," said Hughes. "What we really love is Harper is really different – she brings great athleticism, runs the floor really well, rebounds from a natural standpoint really good. So it’s gonna be fun to see her blend in. And we are very anxious to watch her in our system. But it will kinda play out in training camp – I think there’s room for all of ‘em."

With Harper being an outstanding offensive rebounder who will likely create more second chance scoring opportunities for a team with big scorers, Riley expected to come back healthier than she's been in three years, second year player Megan Frazee -- last year's top offensive rebounder by percentage -- expected to improve, and Snow the Silver Stars now have quite an imposing rebounding presence.

However, the immediate dilemma seems to be that if you add Ann Wauters to the mix, it really looks like a crowded rotation. One way to imagine resolving this dilemma is to consider that all Frazee, Harper, and Snow were all outstanding rebounders in limited minutes. Riley and Wauters are rather efficient scorers who don't rebound well at all. So although it looks "crowded", the Silver Stars could also constantly rotate post players in and out depending on matchups while keeping everybody fresh. It's not a bad strategy if everyone is satisfied with minutes, which shouldn't be a problem given the track record of their young rebounders.

What the Silver Stars clearly need to add next is a wing player, which Hughes said could mean Belinda Snell or someone else.

From the Dream's perspective, this trade would seem to give them a little extra money to sign the point guard they're looking for.

Atlanta Dream Free Agency Breakdown: de Souza Expected to Re-sign, Searching for Veteran Point Guard - Swish Appeal
"What I would like to do is sign a veteran point guard who can score from the three point range," said Meadors. "We’re still trying to find that – but we have to get one… We just feel like if we get a veteran point guard that will put us in a situation where we can challenge for that championship."

Whether that point guard comes via trade or free agency remains to be seen.

Transition Points:

Just to be clear, this trade probably has little to do with clearing cap room for Erika de Souza -- the Dream had enough room to sign her prior and have maintained that they expect to do so.

Atlanta Dream Free Agency Breakdown: de Souza Expected to Re-sign, Searching for Veteran Point Guard - Swish Appeal
Meadors on Erika de Souza: “Yes, I do expect to re-sign Erika de Souza,” said Meadors. “And what she brings to our team is she brings speed, quickness, athletic ability, size. She just is kind of like a do-all type player in the post area.”

Forward Angel McCoughtry might provide additional motivation for de Souza to sign expeditiously.

Team USA Selection Affirms Anticipation of McCoughtry’s Path to Stardom - Swish Appeal
McCoughtry on whether Dream free agent center Erika de Souza would re-sign (Meadors has said she will): "She better come back or I'll kick her butt. You can quote me on that. We really need De Souza. And I know we just signed another European girl over there, but De Souza is really the backbone of our team, she's our big post presence, she's our leader. So we need her. I'm really hoping that she comes back."

Poll

Is this a good trade for the Silver Stars?

Pac-10 Coaches Get (Co-)Defensive Player of the Year Right

2010-03-11T20:13:04Z

Pac-10 Coaches Get (Co-)Defensive Player of the Year Right

I'm not sure what the media voters were thinking when they voted for the Pac-10 awards, but the coaches -- perhaps people who have actually bothered to watch the players play -- seem to have gotten things right, especially with the Defensive Player of the Year selecting Briana Gilbreath and Ros Gold-Onwude.

That is by no means a slight on Ify Ibekwe. However, Gilbreath is one of the most versatile defenders in the conference and Gold-Onwude is hands down the best lock down perimeter defender.

Click here for more on the Pac-10 awards from C&R.

WNBA Hall of Fame Probability: The "Perfect Ten"

2010-03-11T01:08:02Z

Let's review the Hall of Fame Probability calculator from our previous post. The calculator, used by Basketball-Reference.com, attempts to determine the probability of a given NBA player making the Naismith Hall of Fame given the player's statistics and accomplishments. I've always been interested in extending this calculator to the WNBA, and now I've finally been able to do it. pilight provided the MVP shares data and made some suggestions that I've incorporated into the final product.

Of course, the WNBA and the NBA are not the same. Extending WNBA data to an NBA metric required overcoming some problems. As we go through the metric, we'll explain the glitches and the resolutions to those problems.

Another problem - not really a problem, if you think about it - is that Hall of Fame selection for basketball depends upon factors other than one's pro career, regardless if one examines Naismith HOF or Women's Basketball HOF criteria. Contributions in college ball and the international career of a player can be considered whereas the HOF probability calculator ignores each of those. In the end, the number yielded by the HOF probability calculator is the probability that a player would make the (in our case) a hypothetical women's pro basketball HOF solely based on her professional career statistics. In real life, a player could have a probability significantly less than 100 percent but might be assured HOF selection given a strong college career or a coaching career - the HOF considers all contributions made by a player to the sport.

With that in mind, let's look at each of the factors in the linear metric used by Basketball-Reference.com and check them for relevance.

Player statistics: Player statistics are probably the most important part of any metric to determine player greatness - how good could a player be if her greatness doesn't show up in a box score? There must be dozens of metrics out there to evaluate player greatness; which one should be used?

The answer is the "tried and true" metric of points per game/rebounds per game/assists per game, usually represented by numbers separated by slashes - 17.2/10.1/1.8. Any one who has worked with basketball metrics knows that numbers such as points per game can be misleading - point production depends on offensive pace. Your average player will have more points per game playing for the 2009 Phoenix Mercury than for the 2009 Indiana Fever. Statistics must be weighed by circumstances.

Unfortunately, the average person doesn't weigh by circumstances. Bill James said that in the end a player's statistics are all that she has. Take say, Katie Smith. Everyone who has seen her knows that Smith's good. Smith, however, is getting long in the tooth and will probably retire in a couple of years, and all that women's basketball fans will have are memories of great games she played - and of course, her stats.

However, people die. The cohort of fans that saw Katie Smith in a WNBA game will begin to progressively shrink after she retires, and in several decades will dwindle to the point where no one living has actually seen her play. (See: Cobb, Ty.) All we'll have are a few tantalizing film clips, and the bulk of the visual record will remain unviewed. As time passes, Smith's stat line - the only thing that will not change about her - will gain greater and greater prominence.

The problem is that out of the statline, the only stats most people will care about are PPG/RPG/APG, deprived of context. What I admire about the HOF probability calculator is that it weights on the things that most fans consider to be important and not on the things statisticians consider to be important.

Do we have to adjust these stats to make the metric work? Yes. The metric depends on a 48 minute game; the WNBA has always played for only 40 minutes. Stats have to be ballooned to 48 minutes by multiplying by 6/5. There is another problem in that the WNBA has not always used a 24 second clock - this problem is handled in another part of the metric. A final problem is that due to a set of indeterminate factors, assists are not as common in the WNBA as they are in the NBA. That part of the metric, sadly, can't be fixed and those players like Lindsay Whalen who can deal the dimes get shortchanged.

Most Valuable Player Shares: We've already written about MVP Shares. A review of the idea: one looks at Most Valuable Player voting for any given year. The top voter getter in any year - the MVP - is given a full MVP share of "one (1)" for the year, and the runners up are given a fraction of a share based on how close they came to the player who was chosen MVP. A player's MVP shares are added across her career.

This part of the metric determines what the working press thought of the player's career. Part of what makes a player a member of the Hall of Fame is good press. Players that made an impression on a city's beat reporters and HOF balloters get credit in the metric.

All-Star Selections: The metric also positively weights players who for one reason or another were fan favorites. Creators of Hall of Fame metrics - of any sport - disdain All-Star selections, not wanting to turn their respective Halls of Fame into popularity contests. This doesn't make much sense, since in a manner of speaking being a member of the Hall of Fame is exactly like winning a popularity contest - the only difference is in the reasons given for being chosen Prom Queen, so to speak. A better way to put it is that fans of the sport fear that the Hall of Fame will be open to charismatic (but mediocre) players.

Seeing as how the Naismith HOF has few women - players or otherwise - in their HOF and that the Women's Basketball HOF is just getting started, this isn't much of a concern...yet. Filling a Hall of Fame is always difficult. You don't want to be like the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame where gaining membership is rather difficult, but you don't want to open the floodgates either where fans begin to talk about "weak Hall of Famers". You want the balance to be "just right".

On the other hand, you have to give the fans credit for something. Most of the fans selections are spot on, but there are a few perpetual All-Stars, particularly in women's basketball where the players aren't well known and a visitor might cast an All-Star ballot for the few names he or she recognizes. However, players like that had to be doing something right to begin with to become so well-known.

There are two problems in counting All-Star Game selections. The first is that the WNBA had one year - 2008 - where it held no All-Star Game. Another problem is that the WNBA has only been holding All-Star games since 1999 but the league has been around since 1997.

pilight suggested that players who won medals in the Olympic Games should be given credit for an All-Star selection. I agreed, provided that the medal earned was bracketed by ABL/WNBA years on either side of their Olympic appearance. Lauren Jackson gets some honorary All-Star selections (but nothing earned before 2001). Beijing Becky Hammon gets an honorary All-Star selection for playing with the Russians.

Technically, this method could be extended to the 1998 FIBA games to create some pseudo-All Stars. However, I don't have the data that I need. Besides, the ABL players had All-Star games before 1999; let's give those players an advantage for once.

Height: Height is the only part of the metric with a negative coefficient - the taller you are, the more credit the metric takes away. It isn't because tall players aren't any good. The reason is that if you have player who is 5-foot-6 and a player who is 6-foot-6 and their stats are exactly alike, you assume that the smaller player is better because she did more with less.

The problem is that WNBA are (obviously) not as tall as NBA players. I've thought about the height problem a lot. I found somewhere on line where it stated that female height is distributed the same way as male height - the probability that some female is 20 percent less than a female of average height is exactly the same as the probability that some male is 20 percent less than a male of average height. The only difference in both problems? The average heights.

My conclusion was that the average ABL/WNBA player was 6'1" and the average NBA player was 6'7". I therefore granted each WNBA player an increase of six inches in height so that the NBA metric would work. pilight states that the difference in average heights is closer to seven inches that it is to six but I'm keeping the six inch difference for now.

Last year played: After the 2005 season, the WNBA made two changes to the game - they abandoned the halves system in favor of quarters, and they dumped the 30-second college clock for the 24-second pro clock. The transition from 2005 to 2006 provides a useful benchmark between the two styles of play.

Furthermore, if a player's pro career ended before 2005, there's a good chance that she got cheated out of some of her productive years. If she retired at age 35 in 2005, she was born in 1970 and by the time pro ball started again in the US she was 26 or 27.

Therefore, if a player's career ended in 2005 or before, the player was granted a bonus in the metric. If your last year of play is 2005 or earlier, you get the bonus. If the year is later, you don't get the bonus. It's strictly an either-or proposition. If the league is still around in 2020, I might move the "switch" to give a bonus to any player whose career ended in 2009 or earlier - but for now, we stick with 2005.

Rings: It's the old argument: "yeah, Chamique Holdsclaw is a great player, but how many rings does she have?" The idea is a simple one: great players win championships. They excel in the post-season, they elevate their teams, whatever you want to call it. How can one be a Hall of Famer without the hardware to prove it?

It's simple - players get extra weight in the metric for championship rings, even if they were just the water-carriers on championship teams. (Ask Bill James about all the New York Giants players from the 1920s that ended up in the Hall of Fame.) Out of the ten players who got a perfect score in the metric, only two of those players don't have a ring - and for one of those players, her career ended before the start of the 2006 season. Houston Comets fans will rejoice; New York Liberty fans not so much.

The hard part is determining who got a ring - who was on the roster at the end of the season - and who wasn't. I did the best I could with that.

(* * *)

Now, we take all of these numbers, throw them into a blender, and have them spell "mother". The final number yielded is a number between 0 and 100. This number represents the probability that the player could get in a hypothetical Hall of Fame based solely on their professional career.

Let's walk through the case of Player X. (Maybe you can even guess who Player X is.) Ms. X played 216 games, all in the WNBA so we don't have to worry about ABL rings or MVP shares. Her averages per game were 13.4 points per game, 4.5 rebounds per game and 1.2 assists per game. (I've rounded the exact numbers, and exact numbers are used in the calcuation.) Multiplying each of these by 6/5 gives us 16.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 1.4 APG - these are what her numbers would be if she was an NBA player.

What about MVP shares? She got 303 votes for MVP in 1998, but Cynthia Cooper got 426, so that's 303/426 = 0.71 shares. Add another 0.01 share for the three MVP votes she received in 1999. She never got any other votes, so she has a total of 0.72 MVP shares.

All-Star Games? Only one. She was tagged in 1999 but was never called an All-Star again.

Her listed height was 6'3", or 75 inches. We add six inches to that to make her an NBA player, giving her 81 on our inches metric.

Was her last season before 2005? Her last season was in 2003, so she gets the "2005 and before bonus" which is equal to one (1).

Any championship rings? Not a one. She gets a "zero" in the rings department.

Now let's add everything:

The sum is used as an exponent in the formula e^x/(1+e^x). We calculate e^0.203/(1+e^0.203) and get 0.551, which is a probability of 55 percent. In other words, given this player's professional career, the chances that that player would end up in the HOF based solely on her pro years is 55 percent.

There are ten players on the list of perfect scores - each player got 100 percent in the metric, rounding up. One of these players is already in the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame. Barring insanity in Knoxville, Tennessee, the other nine soon will be.

In alphabetical order, those players are:

Tamika Catchings: She's the only player in the Perfect Ten who doesn't have a ring and is still playing. She got very close in 2009, though. Clearly one of the great-uns. A freshman on the undefeated 1998 Tennessee NCAA Championship team. Also a member of the All-Decade Team.

Cynthia Cooper: Coooooop. Four rings. What's so amazing about Cooper is that she lost a great hunk of her pro career and ended up with four rings in spite of it all. She's the only member of the Perfect Ten that's already in the Hall of Fame. All-Decade Team member.

Yolanda Griffith: Those Sacramento Monarchs fans out there will Stand Up and Testify. She didn't have a college career at a Big Name University, but Griffith won an MVP award in WNBA and two Olympic gold medals Someday, Yo will be in Knoxville. Yo is also an All-Decade Team member.

Lauren Jackson: The Aussie. Every year, fans in Seattle hold their breath in hopes that LJ will return. Even if she moves to the Outback and never touches American soil again - she's done enough. She's won a lot of silver for the Australian team and she is also an All-Decade Team member.

Lisa Leslie: If she were Leroy Leslie, she would have averaged a double-double in the NBA. Some say she's a primadonna, but she sure belted out beautiful arias in the WNBA. A good argument could be made that Leslie is the Best Player Ever. All-Decade team member.

Katie Smith: I think of her as the Lou Gehrig of the WNBA. The Iron Woman. Rings in two different pro leagues. The most games played out of the Perfect Ten. All-Decade team member.

Sheryl Swoopes: If you say Coop, you must say Swoop(es). Game Texas Tech an NCAA championship in 1993. First women's basketball player to have a shoe named after her. She kept playing for as long as she could, and she still wants to play. We might not have seen the last of Swoopes. All-Decade team member.

Diana Taurasi: For those who argue that Leslie is the best ever, there are voices from Phoenix saying "Dee ain't finished yet." The youngest player on the list. Led Connecticut to three straight NCAA championships. When she steps on the floor, fans say "that's the best player here" even if they know nothing about women's basketball - or, for that matter, basketball. All-Decade team honorable mention.

Tina Thompson: When the sun goes cold and the earth is a lifeless rock floating freely in space, Katie Smith and Tina Thompson will still be playing one-on-one with the last basketball in existence. Second to Lisa Leslie in all-time points scored. All-Decade team member.

Natalie Williams: I never knew how good Natalie Williams was. It sounds like I missed a lot. First woman to be named an All-American in basketball and volleyball. Great internatioal player. All around great athlete. ABL superstar.

All of the above received 100 percent on the Hall of Fame probability calculator. All of these women could get into a Hall of Fame based on their American pro career alone. But with names like this, you don't need a calculator to tell you they're great.

Coming next: those players who fell short of 100 percent. Like, for example, that nameless player who got 99 percent. But she made it in anyway.

"The Stat Movement Goes Establishment": What advantages might stats bring WNBA teams?

2010-03-10T09:21:30Z

Washington Mystics tandem Angela Taylor (left) and Julie Plank use statistics in their on court and front office decision making. But to what extent is WNBA decision-making influenced by statistics? Photo via www.wnba.com

View full size photo »

As Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus and the Seattle Storm wrote citing Dean Oliver in his summary of the 2010 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this past weekend, "Individuals see a basketball game better than the numbers...but the numbers see all the games."

However, in reading the flood of reports and tweets from the Dorkapalooza and thinking about how they might apply to the WNBA, one comment in particular from a new friend of the WNBA stood out: "I'd like to congratulate everyone here for breaking the record for most dudes in one room."

Of course, the comment doesn't necessarily mean that the stat movement is "male only", but it did lead me to wonder, to what extent are WNBA decision-makers influenced by statistics? What is the state of basketball analytics in the WNBA?

Coincidentally, during an interview with Swish Appeal yesterday morning, I was struck by Washington Mystics General Manager Angela Taylor's use of statistics -- she referred to statistics far more frequently and fluidly without my prompting than other coaches and executives I've spoken with. During our conversation, she referred at various times to offensive rebounding percentage, free throw rates, plus/minus and assessed player development by referencing statistical trends. Granted, she might be predisposed to thinking quantitatively -- she has a degree in Economics from Stanford University and was previously the Minnesota Lynx's Vice President of Business Operations. Nevertheless, her answer

"I think numbers don't lie," said Taylor. "So for both coach [Julie] Plank and I you have to look at the numbers. I think trends to look at plus/minuses after games. You can look at different rotations and lineups that play well together in certain circumstances and scenarios. It probably kind of distracts me from the nerves I have so I'll dig deeply into the numbers. But I do - I think it's important not to go overboard with the numbers, but I think it's important to be aware of different areas statistically where you can get better because I think that does paint the picture a lot of times when you're just looking anecdotally and kinda let your emotions make more decisions. So it's nice to dig into the numbers."

Therefore, the question becomes not whether WNBA executives are using statistics -- it would seem unlikely that Taylor is the only one who actively uses statistics in her decision making.

Looking at the progression of the "stat movement" in the NBA, the question for the WNBA is who will take advantage of statistics first?

To be clear, this is not some watered down argument for gender equity in sports.

It's much simpler than that.

As described in a recent Sports Illustrated article about the Seattle Mariners use of "run prevention" to make the biggest improvement in baseball last season despite scoring the league's fewest runs, baseball is arguably in phase two of its statistics movement. While "Moneyball" is a particular way of thinking about the use of statistics to exploit market inefficiencies -- identifying and acquiring assets undervalued by the market -- there is an underlying principle at work.

Statistics help people make sports decisions.

As such, the reason for the growing momentum of the "stat movement" in the NBA is simply that it helps teams win -- those that have resisted are falling behind.

The state of basketball analysis - TrueHoop Blog - ESPN
It’s an interesting time. Just a couple of weeks ago, I looked at teams that have stats people integrated into the decision process. (Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Oklahoma City, Portland and I may have included Orlando -- I’m not certain what they do exactly.) It was seven or eight teams. They had won 60% of their games, and that’s counting Houston, which has only won half their games because they’re missing Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady wasn’t playing.

The teams that don’t have quants won 40-some percent. And it was pretty linear … the more or less they had someone integrated into their decision making, the more or less they were at the extremes of winning and losing.

It's not that the dorks are are sitting at their computers and dictating decisions for general managers -- as Taylor commented, the stats help to paint the big picture by making teams aware of both areas where they can get better in addition to potential solutions to filling needs. The stats are simply one more source of information and with more information teams thus have an advantage over those who choose to ignore that information.

The stat movement goes establishment - TrueHoop Blog - ESPN
Abbott: The real answer here is going to make me sound the nerd who picks a fight the jocks, which is a bad position to be in. But I think this might be case of the real truth being that people who understood the power of geekery were always right. It was always the right direction, and teams that took advantage early were on to something that is helping win games, and now everybody else is going to have to run to catch up. I'm not saying everything every stat geek has ever said is gold. But I am saying that smart analysis, even from laptops, over the long haul, matters in the way that a good pair of running shoes matters in winning marathons. It's not going to run the race for you, but at the same time, you can't come to the starting line in penny loafers.

So if statistics so clearly help NBA teams, why not the WNBA?

Some people might immediately suggest that statistics designed for men's basketball don't fit the women's game without significant adjustments. But that's not necessarily true -- in playing with statistics for the last two WNBA seasons and reading what scant women's basketball research exists, advanced statistics do have some WNBA value even without major adjustments for differences in style of play.

Obviously, Pelton works for the Storm and Paul Swanson hosts the most comprehensive WNBA statistics site for the Minnesota Lynx so you have to imagine that those two franchises -- in addition to the Mystics -- are at least aware of statistics. Stats both illuminate things that we might not see and give us a means by which to compare the players we do see to those we cannot, due to either an inability to watch every game or our own subjectivities.

However, I'm going to go a step further -- with both roster and salary cap reductions in a league whose goal is clearly to create a quality product, investing in "quants" might be more important simply because resources and roster sports are even more scarce in the WNBA. With less room for error in terms of how teams are constructed and constant shifts (improvement) in the talent pool, managing resources more efficiently will actually be vital to team success this year. As the quality of play in the league gets better, strategies shift, and players keep getting better, statistics will help executives monitor the trends and make the right decisions.

The fluidity of basketball makes it such that statistical analysis might not have the same affect as they do on baseball (or hockey, for that matter). But it would be interesting to know if the WNBA is seeing as strong an association between winning and the extent to which statistics are used in decision making.

Transition Points:

One thing Taylor mentioned is that the Mystics were near the bottom in blocks last year (9th of 13) and that she would like to address that. The value of shot blocking is apparently something that was discussed at the SSAC.

The value of a blocked shot - TrueHoop Blog - ESPN
Is blocking a layup more valuable than blocking a jump shot? Mr. Huizinga’s data says yes. In his presentation, he said that it all comes down to expected value.

I have sometimes wondered if strong position defense and simply forcing teams to take shots outside of their range is just as effective as blocking shots, if not more. In any event, something interesting to think about.

Wallace Renfro: "Profitability no indicator of importance of college athletics programs"

2010-03-10T19:04:17Z

Wallace Renfro: "Profitability no indicator of importance of college athletics programs"

The link above is worth a read as information with which to respond to people who say women's sports and/or Title IX hurt universities because they don't generate revenue.

"There’s something wrong with that concept – that somehow or another, intercollegiate athletics is failing because it’s not paying its way," Renfro said at the workshop, which was held on the campus of the Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. "Take a look at a campus and take a look at the number of departments that don’t even come close to paying their way. They exist because the university believes it’s important to have those departments.

"What you have in higher education is a very complex system of cross-subsidization. There are a few areas in a few places that make a lot of money. Those monies are used to help pay for those other things that universities believe they must have if they’re going to have comprehensive university.

Imagine, for example, if people said we should cut history departments because they weren't profitable. That sounds rather Orwellian and thus frightening to me.

Strictly Come Dancing: South Dakota State, Summit

2010-03-10T02:52:51Z

Who? The Jackrabbits of South Dakota State. Sometimes called the Jacks, but if you refer to the school as SDSU, don't confuse them with San Diego State; that tends to irk their fans.

Where? Brookings, SD, in the eastern part of the state.

When? Tuesday the 9th, in Sioux Falls, SD.

How? It took overtime after giving up a seven-point halftime lead, but the Jackrabbits clamped down on D to hold on, 79-75.

Upset? Yes. Oral Roberts had won the conference regular season by one game over SDSU and Oakland.

RPI: 111

SOS: 198

It might have been a less than stellar season by South Dakota State standards, due to the graduation of a great senior class, but in the clutch, never count out Aaron Johnston's team. For their second year in a row, they'll be representing the Summit League (formerly known as the Mid-Continent Conference, if you were wondering).

Senior forward Maria Boever, a first-team selection in the Summit League, leads her team in scoring and rebounding, putting up 14.2 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. She gets help from senior forward Ketty Cornemann, who does a bit of everything, and junior guard Kristin Rotert, who does a bit more of everything. Ten players average double-digit minutes for SDSU.

Out-of-conference, their worst loss is to Illinois State. They have good wins against Gonzaga and Middle Tennessee in a couple of mid-major deathmatches. They stayed close against Arizona, Virginia, and Iowa. Turnovers nearly came back to haunt them against Oral Roberts, and those could be their Achilles heel in the tournament.

Strictly Come Dancing: Connecticut, Big East

2010-03-10T01:52:03Z

Who? The Huskies of UConn. NOT the Lady Huskies; we all know what a lady husky is, and it ain't appropriate for television.

Where? Storrs, CT; "They used to call it Store, but then they built another one."

When? Tuesday the 9th in Hartford, CT

How? Just another day at the office; after letting West Virginia stay within 10 at the half, they held the Mountaineers to 12 second-half points to win 60-32.

Upset? No. UConn hasn't lost since George W. Bush was president. They finished Big East play three games ahead of West Virginia and Georgetown.

RPI: 1

SOS: 2

UConn leads the nation in scoring... defense. As high-octane as their offense is, and as slick as their passing is, their defense tends to get lost in the shuffle. But they harry their opponents into 30.7% shooting and hold them to 47.2 points per game. They are efficient. They are merciless. They are really, really good.

18.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 51.2% shooting, and just over a block per game. The line of the conference player of the year? No, junior forward Maya Moore's statistics. It's senior center Tina Charles who won Big East Player of the Year, and who leads the team in scoring and rebounding with 18.6 and 9.4 respectively, shooting a blistering 64.7% from the field. And then there's the 11.9 points on 57.6% shooting of senior guard Kalana Greene. (Yes, guard. Yes, 57.6% shooting. And that includes some well-timed three-pointers.) And then there are the deep threats of sophomore guards Tiffany Hayes and Caroline Doty. And that guy on the bench with the smart mouth is a pretty nice asset to have; as much as Auriemma is known for his personality and his mouth, he's also an excellent coach who wrings the absolute last drop of greatness out of his players and plays the match-ups well.

Strictly Come Dancing: Princeton, Ivy League

2010-03-10T01:32:11Z

Who? The Tigers of Princeton.

Where? Princeton, New Jersey, a picturesque town on its own branch of NJ Transit's Northeast Corridor line.

When? About 8PM on Saturday the 6th.

How? By beating Harvard for a season sweep of the second-place team in the conference.

Upset? By definition, no; the Ivy League is the last conference to resist the lure of a conference tournament, giving its auto-bid to the regular-season champion.

RPI: 46

SOS: 219

As any diligent student of the women's game knows, the most remarkable win in tournament history belongs to the Ivy League, when Allison Feaster's Harvard Crimson took advantage of a depleted Stanford Cardinal to notch a 71-67 victory in 1998, marking the only time a #16 seed has ever defeated a #1 seed in either the men's or the women's tournament.

Princeton will almost certainly not have an opportunity to repeat the feat... because the Tigers, with a stronger-than-normal out-of-conference schedule and an unblemished record in league play, have earned consideration for a higher seed than Harvard garnered in 1998. This will be their first trip to the NCAA tournament, and they have the tools to make their stay more than just forty minutes.

What has the difference been for the Tigers this season? Why have they gone from 14-14 with five conference losses last season to 21-2 and a run down the table this year? Coach Courtney Banghart has brought in two freshmen who play critical roles for this team. Point guard Lauren Polansky runs the team with a steady hand, averaging 2.5 assists per game and boasting an A/TO better than 2:1.

The buzz, however, has been around first-year forward Niveen Rasheed- and for good reason. She leads the team in scoring (15.2), rebounding (8.7), assists (2.9), and steals (2.4). She gets to the line almost three times more often than anyone else on the Tigers and shoots better than 50% from the field. She's not afraid to mix it up inside, and she's smart enough to know when not to force it. (Makes sense for an Ivy League kid.)

But this isn't a one-woman show. Center Devona Allgood hits 58.4% of her shots and pulls down a touch under eight rebounds per game, while guards Lauren Edwards and Addie Micir both drain the long ball more than forty percent of the time. Allgood, Edwards, and Micir all average in double figures.

They only have two losses, against UCLA and Rutgers. Solid out-of-conference wins include Delaware, Drexel, and Houston.

Have you seen this Princeton team live and in person? Let us know what you thought of them!

Photo Gallery: 2010 USC Basketball, USC Trojans vs Arizona Wildcats - 3/4/10

2010-03-09T22:40:28Z

USC 55, Arizona 53

[2010 Pac 10 Womens Basketball] USC Trojans vs Arizona Wildcats - March 4, 2010 - Images by Craig Bennett

Everyone here thinks I'm crazy because I keep telling 'em [about Stanford] -- our video guy keeps...

2010-03-09T22:24:38Z

Everyone here thinks I'm crazy because I keep telling 'em [about Stanford] -- our video guy keeps joking with me that he can't believe I'm picking Stanford to pull it off. But I think it's gonna be a pretty interesting tournament. Certainly UConn is the class of the country -- they're dominant, they're unbelievable and it's fun to watch them play.

Hopefully there are some teams out there that will be able to match up and compete with them. I think Nebraska, they're a senior-laden team and to have such solid play from all five positions and to be senior-laden is great around tournament time. Tennessee -- who knows. Pat has her teams ready.

Even Stanford: Tara and the Cardinal have faced UConn already and I think that they're always better the second time because they prepare and they look at that tape. Two years ago they lost to Connecticut and then in the Final Four they upset them because she put a scheme together...So hopefully my Cardinal can pull it off, make it to San Antonio, and then the rest is to be seen on the court.

-- Washington Mystics General Manager Angela Taylor on whether her alma mater, Stanford University, can win it all in an interview with Swish Appeal this morning.

Strictly Come Dancing: Middle Tennessee, Sun Belt

2010-03-09T21:32:04Z

Who? The Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee State. Sometimes also known as the Lady Raiders.

Where? Murfreesboro, TN, just about smack-dab in the middle of the state, which I guess is why they called the university Middle Tennessee State.

When? Tuesday the 9th, in Hot Springs, AR.

How? It took overtime and a transcendent 48-point, 16-rebound performance from Alysha Clark to beat top-seeded Arkansas-Little Rock 70-68.

Upset? Technically, yes. The Sun Belt's Eastern Division champions were the second seed thanks to a loss in head-to-head play against the Trojans.

RPI: 23

SOS: 84

There's a lot of tournament-making, nationally ranked basketball played in the state of Tennessee, and not all of it is housed in Knoxville or Nashville. Middle Tennessee State is a perennial tournament team with a lot of offense, strong defense, and the willingness to play anyone.

It all starts with the amazing senior Alysha Clark, two-time Sun Belt Player of the Year and the nation's leading scorer. Her numbers before today were 28 points and 11.4 rebounds per game, and those will go up after the performance mentioned above. As dominant a scorer she is, she also averages over three assists, passing out of the double and-triple teams sent her way. All-Sun Belt First Teamer Brandi Brown and Second-Teamer Jackie Pickel also average double figures for an offense that averages 81.8 points a game. Pickel was the Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year as well. I would hate to be a conference foe coming in against them- "wait, we have to guard the top player in the conference AND they have the top defensive player in the conference?!" Pleasingly geeky statistical note: all five of their starters have A/TO ratios better than 1:1.

A home win against Kentucky is their best out-of-conference win. In battles with other mid-majors, they came out at the short end of the stick against Xavier and South Dakota State.·

Strictly Come Dancing: Xavier, Atlantic 10

2010-03-09T20:46:04Z

Who? The Musketeers of Xavier.

Where? Cincinnati, OH, the city that once had Jerry Springer as its mayor.

When? Monday the 8th, in Upper Marlboro, MD.

How? Up 12 at the half, Xavier was taken to overtime by a determined Temple team, but held the Owls scoreless for the last 3:55 to take the game 57-55.

Upset? Nope. Xavier ran the table in conference, finishing three games ahead of Dayton and Temple.

RPI: 11

SOS: 60

In the poll era, the recipe for success is simple: don't lose. Xavier hasn't lost in this calendar year, playing in a tough, competitive conference. They play hard, they play tough, and they're not afraid of anyone.

Their attack is led by the imposing post tandem of juniors Amber Harris and Ta'Shia Phillips. Harris is the team's leading scorer with 15.4 per game and second-leading rebounder at a tiny smidge under nine per game, while Phillips averages a double-double with 13.7 points and 11.3 rebounds (almost half of which are offensive, a stat that boggles my mind). Behind them is a balanced scoring attack, with four players averaging 8.4 points or better... but when your posts shoot 55.8% and 62.1% from the field, who needs other scorers?

The most puzzling losses are the two to the Michigan schools- on the road at Michigan State and at home against Michigan. They beat Mississippi State by 21 and Arizona State by 13. If they can cut down their turnovers I think it'll be very interesting to see what they do in the tournament.

Strictly Come Dancing: Chattanooga, Southern

2010-03-09T20:12:25Z

Who? The Lady Mocs of Chattanooga. (It's short for Mockingbird, but I haven't seen any Chattanooga teams use the long form.)

Where? Chattanooga, TN, on the Tennessee River and near the Georgia border.

When? Monday the 8th, in Charlotte, NC.

How? Down eight at the half to second-seeded Samford, the Lady Mocs rallied back and won 72-67 behind a double-double from Shanara Hollinquest.

Upset? No. Chattanooga ended the regular season two games ahead of Samford and Appalachian State, at 16-4.

RPI: 67

SOS: 156

A traditional power in the Southern Conference, Chattanooga's been here before. They're led by senior forward Shanara Hollinquest, the SoCon's Player of the Year, who averages 17.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. She gets help from senior guard, and fellow Southern Conference First-Teamer Jenaya Wade-Fray, the other double-figure scorer for the Lady Mocs with 13.2 per game; Wade-Fray is also the team's second-leading rebounder with 6.1. From the numbers, it's hard to tell who the primary playmaker is for this team, or if Hollinquest has to make her own shots, so if anyone's seen this team, please let me know. I'm curious.

Chattanooga picked up a very good overtime win over Richmond at St. Peter's holiday tournament, and beat a better-than-usual Clemson team as well. A 24-point loss at East Tennessee is not good, and a neutral site loss to Villanova isn't much better.

Strictly Come Dancing: Gonzaga, West Coast

2010-03-09T19:44:56Z

Who? The Bulldogs of Gonzaga.

Where? Spokane, WA, pronounced "Spo-CAN", not Spo-CANE.

When? Monday the 8th, in Las Vegas, NV.

How? While upstart Pepperdine gave the Bulldogs a fight in the first half, Gonzaga answered with a 42-point second half to run away 76-48.

Upset? Nope. Gonzaga ran the table in conference play, finishing two games ahead of St. Mary's.

RPI: 27

SOS: 113

The strength of the men's program in Gonzaga is the stuff of busted brackets- but it has overshadowed the successful program that Kelly Graves has built on the women's side. Spokane is where West Coast Conference Players of the Year are churned out on a regular basis, as junior point guard Courtney Vandersloot claimed the honor this year and last, with forward Heather Bowman taking the crown before her.

Vandersloot leads the nation in assists with 9.3 a game, powering an offense that averages over 80 points per game. She also chips in 14.6 points, second to senior forward Heather Bowman's 15.6. Senior forward Vivian Frieson helps with the heavy work inside, averaging 7.3 rebounds to lead the team, and adding 12.2 points. WCC Newcomer of the Year Katelan Redmon is the fourth in double figures in scoring, putting in 10.8 per game.

The knock on the Bulldogs is their schedule; while they've piled up wins, and played major competition, the two don't overlap. Out of conference tests at Stanford and at home against Baylor resulted in substantial losses. Their best win is a 70-58 victory over USC. I still wouldn't want to be a BCS team seeing them across the bracket.

Strictly Come Dancing: Tennessee, Southeastern

2010-03-09T19:20:33Z

The amazing thing about basketball is that watching it reduces one's time to write about it.

Who? The Lady Volunteers of Tennessee, Vols for short.

Where? Knoxville, TN, where the area code spells out VOL on a telephone keypad.

When? Sunday the 7th, in Duluth, GA.

How? They beat #18 Kentucky 70-62, outrebounding the Wildcats 47-28.

Upset? Not remotely. Tennessee finished four games ahead of Kentucky in the regular season.

RPI: 3

SOS: 8

If you're reading this blog, you've probably heard of Tennessee. But maybe you haven't. Maybe you're so devoted to your own team that you don't pay attention to other teams. These things are possible.

The Lady Vols put five players into double figures on a nightly basis, led by the 14.1 ppg of sharpshooting junior guard Angie Bjorklund (42.9% from beyond the arc, a tick above her overall field goal percentage). Trying to zone Tennessee's shooters is probably not a good idea, though, because they will destroy you inside with sophomore posts Kelley Cain and Glory Johnson, who both average over seven boards a game, with Cain shooting an unreal 60.3% from the field. And we haven't even discussed sophomore forward Shekinna Stricklen, who does a lot of everything, or the emergence of sophomore post Alyssia Brewer in the last few weeks- or, for that matter, the factor on the bench, the woman of a thousand (and more) wins, Pat Summitt.

The high RPI and SOS show that the Lady Vols shy away from playing few teams (for the love of all that is sweet and holy, please don't bring up the UConn thing). Their only losses are to Stanford and Georgia, both on the road. They've beaten Baylor, Virginia, UCLA, Texas, and Oklahoma, and that's just out of conference. Tennessee is a perennial favorite, and this season promises to be no different.

CGB has posted some pictures and commentary from the pre-game of Saturday's big game between Cal...

2010-03-09T16:23:10Z

CGB has posted some pictures and commentary from the pre-game of Saturday's big game between Cal and Stanford: a the pre-game chalktalk with coaches, the pre-game visit from Michelle Smith, and some pictures from the Senior Day celebration. Check it out!

Strictly Come Dancing: Duke, Atlantic Coast

2010-03-08T20:52:50Z

Who? The Blue Devils of Duke.

Where? Durham, North Carolina; if you throw a rock, you'll probably hit a Division I school, which will then promptly have you arrested for throwing a rock at it, because that's just tacky.

When? Sunday the 7th, in Greensboro, NC.

How? The Blue Devils held off an upset-minded sixth seed to claim their first ACC title in six years, beating NC State 70-60.

Upset? No. Duke split the regular season title with Florida State; by beating the Seminoles head to head, they were given the first seed.

RPI: 5

SOS: 7

There are few brands as familiar in college basketball as Duke. While more famous on the men's side, it's not like Duke has neglected its women's program.

Junior guard Jasmine Thomas, a member of the All-ACC first team, averages 15.8 points per game to go with 4.2 assists, 4.2 rebounds, and over two steals a game. She gets strong help inside from senior forward Joy Cheek and junior center Krystal Thomas, who both average over six rebounds per game. Duke's defense holds opponents to about 55 points per game. Offensively, they can struggle against good teams; their points per game average is inflated by a couple of beatings administered to Houston Baptist and North Carolina Central.

As the numbers indicate, they've played a strong, competitive schedule, though looking at it shows a lot of teams that were probably expected to be better than they are. Duke's best win out of conference is most likely Ohio State. The loss to Texas A&M early in the season hurts, and getting smacked around at Cameron by UConn probably smarts, though everyone loses to UConn.

UConn not the only undefeated this year - hello Nebraska!

2010-03-08T19:45:16Z

As the University of Connecticut takes the court in tonight's Big East semi-final game, everyone will be talking about "the streak". With a win over Notre Dame, Geno Auriemma's squad will have 71 consecutive victories. What will be a new women's college basketball record that will break UConn's own 70-game streak from 2001-2003. You cannot deny their greatness and sheer domination in the sport of women's basketball. I even had a recent debate about how many Division I men's teams this current UConn squad could beat. Personally, I think that number would be fairly impressive.

But today I want to share the love and give some pub to the only other undefeated women's team in the 2009-10 season - the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Nebraska is known for it's prowess on the football field, or even the baseball diamond, but never on the hard-court. This year is different. This year head coach Connie Yori has taken her team to unimaginable heights - perfection. The Huskers are batting 1.000, with a 29-0 regular season record, 16-0 in one of the toughest conferences in the land.

This undefeated record is even more impressive when you consider the conference as a whole on both the men's and women's side. You all know men's powerhouse Kansas and their lengthy legacy. Most have heard of the Oklahoma women's program led by Sherri Coale, who have twice made it to the Women's final for in the aughts, including a title game loss to Connecticut in 2002 or the Baylor Bears who took the crown in 2005. Yet, this marks the first time - ever - for a conference men's or women's program to have an undefeated regular season.

Some impressive statistics for the team: they're leading the conference in scoring offense, averaging 76.0 points per game hitting 45.3 percent of their field goals, their scoring margin is +14.9 points. This team truly plays as a team, averaging 13.6 assists per game and is also boasting the lowest assist-to-turnover ratio in the league (1.10).

Senior Kelsey Griffin, their on-court leader, is averaging 21.4 points per game which places her second behind Oklahoma State's Andrea Riley and a league-high 10.6 rebounds per game. What is remarkable about this is Griffin took a redshirt season last year due to injury that required two surgeries with the last being in June 2009. She didn't even return to playing full-court basketball until September.

Not only is Griffin's comeback remarkable, but as is the team's. In 2008-09, Nebraska finished with a 15-16 overall, 6-10 Big 12 record which was only good for 9th in the conference. The preseason polls (not that I believe them anyway) had Nebraska in the 39th spot in the AP and unmentioned in the USAToday/Coaches poll. Quite a far cry from the current 3rd-place spot in both.

OK - everyone can go back to marvelling at Connecticut, as it is well deserved. Just don't forget that there is another school playing to perfection too this year.

Strictly Come Dancing: Ohio State, Big Ten

2010-03-08T19:20:43Z

I like to think that I treat smaller conferences the same way I treat the BCS conferences. To be fair, I should then give the same treatment to BCS schools as I do to the smallest of Division I schools.

Who? The Buckeyes of Ohio State (or, if you insist, the Ohio State University).

Where? Columbus, Ohio, the capital of the state.

When? Sunday the 7th, in Indianapolis, IN.

How? Behind Jantel Lavender, Ohio State came back from an eight-point halftime deficit to win 66-64.

Upset? No. Ohio State won the regular season title, finishing three games ahead of Michigan State.

RPI: 9

SOS: 38

There are a lot of one-two punches in the NCAA, but few teams rely so heavily on theirs, or have such a potent one as Ohio State does. Big Ten Player of the Year Jantel Lavender is an intimidating presence inside on both ends of the floor, averaging a double-double (21.4 points and 10.2 rebounds) and more than one block per game. Sophomore Samantha Prahalis is one of the best point guards in the college game, and one of the most entertaining players to watch; her 7.9 assists per game are second in the nation. Defensive stopper Shavelle Little, a former Big Ten Defensive Player of the year, will be the key player to watch should the Buckeyes come up against a team that relies heavily on a single scorer.

Though the Buckeyes are clearly less comfortable away from the familiar confines of Value City Arena, thirty wins are nothing to sneeze at, and among their victories is a 92-69 drubbing of West Virginia, followed by a 93-72 win over Oklahoma State. No idea how they managed to lose to Indiana, though.

If Ohio State's supporting cast can come along for the ride, the Buckeyes might go far in the tournament. If they're just the Lavender and Prahalis show, and they get the wrong draw... well, let's just say that yours truly picked Marist in 2007, so no Ohio State loss will surprise me come tournament time.

Strictly Come Dancing: Marist, MAAC

2010-03-08T18:12:21Z

Who? The Red Foxes of Marist.

Where? Poughkeepsie, NY, along the Hudson River line on Metro-North.

When? Sunday the 7th, in Albany, NY.

How? By beating the third-place Fairfield Stags 66-49 to clinch their fifth straight ticket to the Big Dance.

Upset? Nope. Marist was a bit more challenged in the regular season this year, losing three conference games, but still finished two games ahead of Iona.

RPI: 47

SOS: 115

Sometimes called the Gonzaga of the women's game (though Gonzaga would claim that they're the Gonzaga of the women's game, I'm sure), Marist is the power team from an ordinarily one-bid conference that no BCS team wants to see opposite them in the bracket. They burst to prominence in 2007 when they beat Ohio State in a 4-13 match-up on their way to the Sweet Sixteen, and have stayed in the national spotlight since.

Do-everything senior forward Rachele Fitz, three-time MAAC Player of the Year, leads the charge for the Red Foxes, averaging 18 points and 8.2 rebounds a game with a remarkable 56% field goal percentage, but she doesn't have to do it alone. Junior guard Erica Allenspach puts in thirteen points a game and does a little of everything from the point. To me, though, the story for Marist this year is the emergence of sophomore guard Corielle Yarde- last season, she was a reserve who did all the little things right; this season, she's a starter who averages 13.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, a smidge under 1.5 steals, and over 2 assists a game, so not only is she doing the little things, she's doing the big things.

Their out-of-conference schedule includes wins over Hartford and Bowling Green, as well as an overtime loss to Oklahoma. The only truly baffling OOC loss is an eighteen-point loss to St. Bonaventure. The worst losses are in conference, to Niagara and Manhattan.