Talking Chop

Braves Quote For The Day ... Predicting What The Braves Will Do With Minor

2012-05-17T18:20:04Z

Here is a quote from AJC reporter Carroll Rogers, about struggling Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Mike Minor:

All I can tell you about what happens next is the impression I got from manager Fredi Gonzalez last night, and that's the Braves plan to be patient with Minor and keep running him out there, at least for now.

This almost absolutely means that General Manger Frank Wren is thinking the opposite, and Minor will be replaced on the roster the next time through the rotation. At least, that's what has happened the last few times Fredi has commented on a roster decision.

Also, Carroll...

As some others have suggested, it does seem Minor is having some problems pitching out of the stretch and maybe that’s why he struggled so much last night

... do not be afraid to mention Talking Chop by name, or even throw in a link to this story about Minor's stretch splits.

Braves Mid-Day Open Thread

2012-05-17T17:00:37Z

The Braves will turn from their first round draft pick bonus baby with the 7+ ERA to their undrafted free agent out of a small Indiana University ... who is leading the Majors in ERA. #Dumbfounded.

If yesterday's splits versus Minor were any example of how the Marlins would hit him, then hopefully each pitchers' splits today are also indicative of future performance. Vs. pitcher after the jump...

Braves vs. Ricky Nolasco	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brian McCann	50	47	16	3	0	6	19	2	8	.340	.360	.787	1.147
Chipper Jones	46	42	15	5	0	4	10	3	4	.357	.391	.762	1.153
Martin Prado	32	31	11	1	0	0	5	1	4	.355	.375	.387	.762
Michael Bourn	27	25	6	0	0	0	0	2	4	.240	.296	.240	.536
Matt Diaz	25	23	10	4	0	1	1	2	7	.435	.480	.739	1.219
Jason Heyward	16	13	5	1	1	1	1	3	1	.385	.500	.846	1.346
Freddie Freeman	15	15	2	1	0	0	0	0	4	.133	.133	.200	.333
Dan Uggla	14	13	5	0	0	2	2	1	1	.385	.429	.846	1.275
Eric Hinske	12	11	1	0	0	1	2	0	8	.091	.083	.364	.447
Jack Wilson	12	10	1	0	0	0	0	2	3	.100	.250	.100	.350
Tim Hudson	10	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	.222	.222	.222	.444
Livan Hernandez	6	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Tommy Hanson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Juan Francisco	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000
Brandon Beachy	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Mike Minor	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
David Ross	2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	.500	.500	1.000	1.500
Randall Delgado	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	279	256	75	16	1	15	41	16	57	.293	.331	.539	.870

Marlins vs. Brandon Beachy	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Greg Dobbs	12	11	1	0	0	0	1	0	7	.091	.091	.091	.182
John Buck	11	9	2	0	0	0	0	2	4	.222	.364	.222	.586
Emilio Bonifacio	9	9	2	0	1	0	0	0	5	.222	.222	.444	.667
Omar Infante	9	8	3	0	1	0	1	0	1	.375	.333	.625	.958
Logan Morrison	9	7	1	1	0	0	2	2	2	.143	.333	.286	.619
Gaby Sanchez	9	9	2	0	0	1	1	0	3	.222	.222	.556	.778
Giancarlo Stanton	9	8	3	2	0	0	1	1	1	.375	.444	.625	1.069
Bryan Petersen	6	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	.200	.333	.200	.533
Hanley Ramirez	6	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	.250	.500	.250	.750
Donnie Murphy	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667
Ricky Nolasco	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	86	74	17	3	2	1	7	8	28	.230	.301	.365	.666

Braves Starting Pitcher Mike Minor Has A "Stretch" Problem

2012-05-17T13:25:16Z

Watching last night's game, fans of the Atlanta Braves were hopeful that Mike Minor was past the issues that had plagued him the last three starts ... and then the fourth inning happened. And then the fifth inning happened. Minor had allowed only one baserunner through those first three innings -- a two-out walk in the second -- the rest of the time he was free to wind up and deliver, and deliver he did, very effectively.

Then the fourth inning happened, and an Omar Infante Single began the unraveling. He hit the next batter, gave up a double, walked a guy -- something was different about this Mike Minor than the one I had been watching the first three innings.

In those early innings he was putting the ball exactly where Brian McCann wanted it, hitting the catcher's mitt with routine precision. In the fourth and fifth innings, he was all over the place. He was unable to command his pitches with any sort of consistency, and the Marlins batters made him pay.

That prompted me to look up some splits this morning, specifically Minors splits with runners on and with the bases empty, and lo and behold the difference is frightening:

Minor in 2012 with bases empty: .226/.282/.339 ... .621 OPS
Minor in 2012 with runners on: .422/..461/.766 ... 1.226 OPS

This leads me to believe that Minor's mechanics out of the stretch, when runners are on base, are out of whack somehow. This is further supported by his numbers last year, which show just the opposite:

Minor in 2011 with bases empty: .345/.399/.554 ... .952 OPS
Minor in 2011 with runners on: .222/.291/.316 ... .608 OPS

Last year he was at his best when the situation was the most difficult, but 2010 was a different story, though still not as bad as this year:

Minor in 2010 with bases empty: .278/.320/.433 ... .753 OPS
Minor in 2010 with runners on: .361/.395/.653 ... 1.048 OPS

For whatever reason this makes me think of Chipper Jones, and how he has to work at two different swings -- his left-handed swing and his right-handed swing. You'll often hear him comment that he's going great from one side, but can't get it straitened out from the other side. Minor might be one of those pitchers who has two distinct enough pitching styles -- one from the wind-up, the other out of the stretch -- where sometimes one is working and the other is not. This certainly seems to be the case.

Whether this is truly a mechanical flaw or not, or simply some crazy factor of luck, or even a mental approach that is not always there in certain situations, we can only speculate. But the data seems to indicate that Minor currently has a flaw in his mechanics out of the stretch.

The question for the Braves is whether that can be fixed in the Majors, or whether a minor league assignment would be in order so he can work on this particular issue. As JunkStats pointed out last night, Minor is the first pitcher in the Majors since Kenny Rogers in 2008 to allow 6+ runs in four consecutive starts. Since 1978, only two Braves have had more than five starts in a season with 6+ earned runs allowed, Minor already has five starts with 6+ runs allowed this year. So you can see, this kind of poor performance is a rare thing for a Braves starting pitcher.

With Jair Jurrjens performing even worse in triple-A, he doesn't seem to be an option to replace Minor in the rotation. Julio Teheran has done well so far this season, much like he did last year, but do the Braves have the confidence to promote him again? Kris Medlen or Livan Hernandez could start, but how would losing one of them from the bullpen affect the bullpen?

The Braves need to do something, because even a good offense can't cover up for Minor's problems every game. Atlanta can't keep hoping that Minor figures it out; the games up here are too important, and the National League East is too tight of a race for any more time to be spent waiting for Minor to figure out his problems. I say demote him, and fill in his rotation spot with either Teheran, Medlen, or Livan. What say you?

The View From Your Seat

2012-05-17T12:15:24Z

Turner Field, Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves, 5/16/12, top of the fifth

Gartrell Continues Power Surge, Moore Has A Strong Outing, And Jurrjens Implodes In Wednesday's Atlanta Braves Minor League Action

2012-05-17T05:59:30Z

Gwinnett's offense was hot, but not hot enough to back Jurrjens' terrible start. Mississippi had the night off, while Schlehuber homered for Lynchburg and Navery Moore turned in a great start with Rome.

Gwinnett Braves 7, Buffalo Bison 14

Stefan Gartrell, LF: 3-5, 2 2B, HR(8), 2 RBI, .250
Ernesto Mejia, 1B: 3-5, 2B, 3 RBI, R, .290
Joey Terdoslavich, 3B: 2-4, 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 2 E(14,15), .193
Drew Sutton, 2B: 2-3, 3B, 3 R, 2 BB, .276
Jair Jurrjens, SP: 4.2 IP, 12 H, 11 R (10 ER), 2 BB, 3 K, 5.06 ERA

Jair Jurrjens' poor AAA peripherals finally caught up with up tonight, as he got mercilessly hammered by Buffalo. Jurrjens went 4.2 innings, allowing 11 runs (10 earned) on 12 hits and 2 walks. The bullpen wasn't much better, as all three relievers who appeared behind Jurrjens gave up runs as well. All in all, it was a disaster outing for JJ - not much you can say other than he'll have to move on and learn from it. It's a shame the pitching was so awful, because Gwinnett's 2-5 hitters all turned in fantastic games. Stefan Gartrell continued his hot hitting, going 3-5 with a homer and two doubles. Ernesto Mejia chipped in with 2 singles and a double, while Drew Sutton was on base 4 times including a triple. Joey Terdoslavich even managed a multi-hit day, including his first extra base hit in two weeks. Maybe he can build off this and hopefully get his bat going.

Julio Teheran goes tomorrow for Gwinnett

Mississippi Braves - OFF

Wilmington Blue Rocks 7, Lynchburg Hillcats 5

Braeden Schlehuber, C: 2-3, HR(5), 3 RBI, .289
Robby Hefflinger, RF: 1-3, 2 R, RBI, BB, .223
Tommy La Stella, 2B: 1-3, R, CS(1), .302
Dimasther Delgado, SP: 4 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 2 K, 4.50 ERA
Blaine Sims, RP: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 6.30 ERA

Dimasther Delgado had another rough start this evening, allowing 11 baserunners and 4 runs over 4 innings. He also struck out 2 and brought his ERA up to 4.50. Blaine Sims was stellar in relief however, tossing 3 hitless innings with only one walk and 2 strikeouts. Almost all of Lynchburg's offense came by way of catcher Braeden Schlehuber's 5th homer of the year, a three run shot.

J.R. Graham looks to improve on his perfect 4-0 record tomorrow for the Hillcats.

Rome Braves 4, Augusta GreenJackets 3

Brandon Drury, 1B: 1-4, 2B, 3 RBI, .170
Tony Mueller, CF: 0-2, R, 2 BB, SB(8), .244
Navery Moore, SP: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K, 3.63 ERA
Ryne Harper, RP: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 3.06 ERA

Despite the score, Rome's offense wasn't exactly great tonight, managing only 3 hits on the evening. Most of the damage came in the first inning. Second baseman Fernando De Los Santos singled, then after Tony Mueller and Will Skinner walked, Brandon Drury clubbed a bases-clearing double. Drury's 3 RBIs would be all Navery Moore would need, as he threw 5.1 innings of 3 hit ball, allowing only 1 run while walking 3 and punching out a half dozen. Ryne Harper slammed the door with a 2 strikeout ninth inning for his second save of the year.

A.J. Holland takes the mound tomorrow, looking for his second win of the year.

Mike Minor's Struggles Continue In 8-4 Loss to Miami

2012-05-17T02:21:23Z

Left-hander Mike Minor struggled yet again Wednesday, becoming the first pitcher since Kenny Rogers in 2008 to give up six or more earned runs in four consecutive starts (Courtesy of @Junkstats). The Braves were unable to overcome Minor's rough start, and fell to Miami 8-4.

Atlanta opened the scoring in the first, as Tyler Pastornicky singled up the middle on the first pitch of the game. Martin Prado followed with a backside double, moving Pastornicky to third. Freddie Freeman followed with a grounder to first that scored Pastornicky to make it 1-0.

Minor held Miami scoreless through three, but things turned on him in the fourth. A single and a hit by pitch put runners on first and second for Austin Kearns, who scored both runner with a double to center. Three batters later, Emilio Bonifacio brought in Kearns with a single to left.

With the score 3-1 in the bottom of the fourth, Atlanta had runners on second and third for Jason Heyward. Heyward crushed an inside pitch from Mark Buehrle into right field that looked like a sure double. However, Giancarlo Stanton made an incredible diving catch to rob Heyward of a hit and save the Marlins lead.

In the fifth, Miami utilized a little league play of sorts that worked. With Omar Infante on first and Jose Reyes on third, the Marlins called Infante to steal second. McCann decided to thrown down to second, allowing Reyes to break from third and score. The ball should have never been thrown, but since it was, Pastornicky should have cut in front of the bag to shorten the distance. That increased the lead to 4-1.

Two batters later, Gaby Sanchez singled to center, scoring Infante and chasing Minor. Cristhian Martinez entered, and allowed an inherited runner from Minor to score, but that's it. The Braves finished the frame down 6-1.

Atlanta finally got to Buehrle in the sixth. A double by Prado and a walk to Freeman put runners on first and second for Uggla, who singled to center. That scored Prado, cutting the deficit to 6-2. After a wild pitch allowed the runners to advance a base, back-to-back groundouts scored Freeman and Uggla. 6-4 would be as close as the Braves would get.

With a runner on first, Stanton put an exclamation point on his night by crushing a Martinez fastball into the center field stands for a two-run home run. That made the score 8-4. Heath Bell recorded a 1-2-3 ninth for the save.

WP:

Mark Buehrle: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.

LP:

Mike Minor: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K.

Open Thread 5/16: Marlins at Braves

2012-05-16T22:31:50Z

Mark Buehrle takes on Mike Minor in game one of the short series. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET. Braves lineup:

So, yeah. Pretty interesting lineup. With Michael Bourn getting the day off, Pastornicky is leading off. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but that's for another day. Also because of Bourn's absence, Heyward gets to play center, which is something we've been wanting to see for awhile. Should be fun. Good to see Freddie back in the lineup after some issues with his eyes.

Expect to see lots of bunts and steal attempts tonight from Miami. The Marlins lead the Majors in stolen bases, swiping 40 bags already this season. Also, they are tied for second in the Majors in bunt hits with nine.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Series Preview

2012-05-16T19:00:24Z

On Wednesday, the Miami Marlins come to Atlanta after splitting a two-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. On the season, the Marlins are 19-17 and are sitting in fourth place in the National League East. They are 3.5 games back of the division leading Braves.

So far in 2012 however, the results of the Marlins big offseason have been mixed.

Surprisingly, Omar Infante has been the team's best offensive weapon, with a triple slash line of .325/.350/.598 to go along with a wOBA of .407 and a wRC+ of 158. Giancarlo Stanton had to deal with a knee injury early in the season, but has recovered and gotten his power stroke back. He's hitting .281/.338/.508 with a .227 ISO, .361 wOBA, and a wRC+ of 126.

John Buck is an interesting case so far in 2012. He's been slightly above average with a 103 wRC+ and a line of .202/.337/.391. He's sporting a low BABIP, but what I found most interesting is his plate discipline stats so far. Small sample size warning of course, but he's swinging at just around 55 percent of pitches in the zone, down from 73 percent last year. Overall, he's swinging at around just 37 percent of pitches overall, down from 50 percent last year. His walks are up, but he's almost being too passive at the plate it seems like.

Hanley Ramirez enters hitting .234/.311/.421 with a .336 wOBA and 110 wRC+. He's tied with Stanton for the team lead in home runs with seven. Jose Reyes is still showing his on-base skills, but not much else with a line of .255/.350/.350 with a .307 wOBA and 90 wRC+.

Emilio Bonifacio has no power, but makes up for it with his blazing speed. He leads all of baseball by far in steals with 19 of them. He's hitting .264/.352/.314 with a .333 wOBA and wRC+ of 107.

The Marlins have been platooning Logan Morrison and Austin Kearns in left field as of late, with Kearns likely to start when Mike Minor pitches on Wednesday. Kearns is hitting .263/.333/.553 with a .382 wOBA and 141 wRC+. Morrison is hitting .274/.360/.379 with a .323 wOBA and 101 wRC+. Good on-base skills, but the power isn't there for him so far.

The big hole in the lineup has been at first base, with Gaby Sanchez mired in a terrible start so far. He's hitting .198/.244/.306 with a .242 wOBA and 45 wRC+. Yeah, that's bad.

Starting pitchers and the bullpen after the jump.

Wednesday, May 16th, 7:10 PM ET

Mark Buehrle

#56 / Pitcher / Miami Marlins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Mar 23, 1979

Mike Minor

#36 / Pitcher / Atlanta Braves

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: L

Born: Dec 26, 1987

In game one of the series, Mark Buehrle (2-4, 2.81 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.13 xFIP) takes on Mike Minor. Signed in the offseason, Buehrle has been a little lucky with his BABIP and strand rate so far in 2012. He's never been much of a strikeout pitcher, and that's still the case. He's got a K/9 of 4.69 this year, but he rarely walks a batter with a BB/9 of 1.50. According to Brooks Baseball, Buehrle throws a four-seam, two-seam, cutter, curveball, and change-up. His primary off-speed pitch is the change, and he gets a whiff percentage of 12.33 on it, the highest of any of his pitches. Velocity wise, he averages right around 85 miles per hour, so he's never going to blow anyone away. In his last start, he went 6.2 innings, giving up eight hits, two runs (earned), two walks, and three strikeouts.

Thursday, May 17th, 7:10 PM ET

Ricky Nolasco

#47 / Pitcher / Miami Marlins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Dec 13, 1982

Brandon Beachy

#37 / Pitcher / Atlanta Braves

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 03, 1986

Game two gives us a matchup between Ricky Nolasco (4-1, 3.65 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 4.17 xFIP). For the second season in a row, Ricky Nolasco is seeing his strikeout numbers drop. After fanning over eight batters per nine innings in 2010, that dropped to just over six batters per nine last year, and just over four this season. He does have a pretty good control though, walking about 2.5 batters per nine. Like Buehrle, Nolasco has a BABIP and stand rate that are much below his career averages. Nolasco features a fastball, sinker, curveball, slider, and split. He rarely gets any swings and misses with his hard stuff, but gets decent whiff rates on his off-speed offerings. Velocity wise, he sits around 90 miles per hour with his fastball and sinker. In his last start, Nolasco went 4.2 innings, giving up nine hits, six runs (earned), three walks, and three strikeouts.

Bullpen:

Heath Bell -RH

Steve Cishek -RH

Edward Mujica -RH

Randy Choate -LH

Ryan Webb -RH

Chad Gaudin -RH

Michael Dunn -LH