Talking Chop

Braves Top-10 Minor League Relief Pitchers (1-5)

2009-11-21T14:00:29Z

CB touched on its yesterday, in that most successful relievers in the MLB were drafted as starters, but the Braves have been drafting relievers with that intention in mind recently and it has left them with some very interesting arms in the bullpen that could be ready to fill holes in just a year or two.

1. Craig Kimbrel B/T: R/R Born: 05/28/1988 Ht: 5'11" Wt: 205
Craig Kimbrel was another multiple attempt draftee of the Braves. They took him in the 33rd Rd in 2007 but failed to sign him. They again drafted him in 2008, this time in the 3rd Rd. and signed him for $391,000. He made his debut after signing and splitting time between Danville, Rome and Myrtle Beach. In 35 IP he struck out 53 batters and allowed only 1 ER while walking 15. Pretty sweet. In 2009 he split 49 games between every full season level posting a final line of 60 IP, 2.85 ERA, 30 H, 45 BB and 103 K.

The positives and negatives of Craig Kimbrel's games are pretty well documented. He led the entire minor leagues with 15.5 K per 9 innings. He also walked 6.8 per 9 innings. One of those numbers is really excited, the other is really frightening. Kimbrel's fastball sits in 93-95 MPH range and can touch 98 when he gets behind it. On top of his fastball being fast it also has plus movement, which contributes to some of the walks. He throws a plus slider which has improved markedly from the slurvy pitch he brought to the pro ranks, and mixes in a changeup from time to time though he rarely needed it this season.

Kimbrel has the stuff to be a top flight closer in the majors. He has allowed only 46 hits in 95 professional innings, given up only 2 HRs and struck out a mind bottling 159 batters. The big negative of course is the walks: 60 BB in those 95 innings is a bit on the high side. He was pretty terrible in Myrtle Beach at the beginning of the season but regained his control in Rome only to see his walks spike again in AA and the AFL. He has managed to remain an extremely effective pitcher despite the walks but that probably won't last against advanced competition. Expect him to start in AAA with a callup at some point in the year barring disastrous results in Gwinnett.

2. Cory Gearrin B/T: R/R Born: 04/04/1986 Ht: 6'3" Wt: 200
The Braves drafted Gearrin in the 4th Rd of the 2007 draft and awarded him with a $186,750 bonus. He was a veritable unknown in college until he pitched his was into the Cape Cod league and onto the prospect radar (Baseball America ranked him at the 29th prospect in the Cap Cod in 2006). He split time between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi this season appearing in 47 games while posting a 2.30 ERA, 41 H, 11 BB and 52K in 54.2 IP.

Gearrin throws a low 90s fastball from a sidearm angle that creates a lot of movement and deception. He keeps it down in the zone creating a lot of groundballs (more than 60% in Myrtle Beach this season). Baseball America rated his slider as the best in the organization and its a true strikeout pitch. His control was an issue in 2008 where he walked around 14% of the batters he faced between two levels. In his prospect book, John Sickels remarked that if he could get his walks under control he would find success quickly. In 2009 he improved to walking about 5% of the batters he faced and could be on the fast track to Atlanta.

Cory Gearrin has a chance to be our next Peter Moylan. His stuff profiles similarly though he delivers from a slightly higher arm slot than Peter. If his walks stay down and he learns to manage LH hitters a little better (add a changeup maybe?) he has a good shot at reaching his ceiling. He could begin 2010 at either AA or AAA depending on organizational needs and could see the majors as soon as next season.

3. David Hale B/T: R/R Born: 09/27/1987 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 200
A lot of people scratched their head this year when the Braves took David Hale with their second overall pick (3rd Rd.). out of Princeton. He is a guy with a lot of talent that just never really put it all together in college, possibly because his focus was split between hitting and pitching. He debuted this season in Danville pitching 16 innings to go along with a 1.13 ERA, 12 K, 5 BB and 7 H.

At 6'2" 200 LBs Hale has the ideal pitchers frame and he generates good velocity with a quick follow through and solid mechanics. His fastball sits at 92-93 and can reach as high as 97, though scouts do say that it is flat and lacks deception. He also throws a slider that oscillates between being loopy and a plus pitch. He also throws a changeup occasionally but it is still developing.

I liken David Hale to Bobby Parnell of the Mets. Bobby wasn't great in college (I would know, I went to college with him) but the Mets saw something they liked and took him and now they view him as an integral part of their future plans. Hale has similar stuff to Parnell and I think the Braves are taking the same approach to him. He is finally getting a chance to focus on pitching full time and I guarantee the Braves pitching staff will be working with him on his secondary stuff in the off-season. There isn't really a consensus one what the Braves will do with him yet. If he shows some competency with a changeup they could give him a run as a starter though most believe he will be brought up as a reliever. Look for him in Rome in 2010 with a chance for Myrtle Beach if all goes well.

4. Benino Pruneda B/T: R/R Born: 08/08/1988 Ht: 5'9" Wt: 170
The Braves drafted Benino Pruneda in the 31st Rd of the 2007 draft out of San Jacinto JC and signed him with a $200,000 bonus. He pitched most of this year with Myrtle Beach and was knocked around a bit more than 2008 when he was fairly dominant for Rome. He was a good bit hit unlucky as he somehow was rung to the tune of a .395 BAbip. He ended the season with a 5.47 ERA (3.96 FIP), 54H, 33 BB and 64 K in 51 IP.

Pruneda is notable for the simple fact that he is just 5'9" and generates a 95 MPH fastball. Not only does his fastball go very fast, but it is also very heavy as he consistently produces excellent groundball ratios at every stop (never lower than 52% since becoming a pro). In 2008 his control was solid to go along with excellent K rates, but in 2009 his control degraded a little bit though his K rate was still strong at 10.7 per 9 innings. Scouts worry about his size and how hard he throws though he hasn't given any injury indications thus far and the continued high K rates are a good future indicator.

2009 wasn't as bad it appears for Benino Pruneda and he should be ok going forward. He just needs to get his walks down a tad and maybe get a better defense behind him when he moves to AA. If the component ratios remain strong we could see him in Atlanta in 2011. He could start next season back in Myrtle Beach or in Mississippi.

5. Jeff Lyman B/T: R/R Born: 01/14/1987 Ht: 6'3" Wt: 225
It seems like Jeff Lyman has been around forever. He was taken in the 2nd Rd (the Braves' 4th pick) of the 2005 draft along with guys such as Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schafer and Joey Devine. With all of those guys running around in the majors (and a couple have been there for a while) a guy like Lyman has kind of fallen by the wayside. He has diligently climbed up the minor league ladder however, and at just 22 years old he has thrust himself squarely into the Braves bullpen plans (he was added to the 40 man roster yesterday). Lyman spent most of 2009 pitching out of the bullpen for Mississippi with a few starts mixed in for good measure. He pitched well posting a 3.12 ERA in 86.2 innings there while striking out 76 and walking 46. In a brief promotion to AAA at the end of the season he did walk 10 in 11 innings.

Lyman is a big dude with a big fastball. He can routinely get the ball into the mid 90s and alternates between a two seam and 4 seam grip depending on how much run he wants to create He also throws a solid curve to go along with a splitfinger that he uses in changeup counts. He has started and relieved in his career but he has found more success as a reliever though his body is built to eat innings. His control has been an issue since he was drafted as he routinely walks more than 11% of the batters he faces though he has gotten better at limiting hits and getting strike outs in recent seasons.

The Braves obviously have a plan for Lyman though I'm not sure what. He would be a good power arm out of the bullpen in the coming years though he could also fill in as a swingman if needed (though Medlen already occupies this role). He probably won't start much anymore after this past season and begin a full conversion to the bullpen. Expect him to start 2010 in AAA with a chance to see Atlanta by year's end now that he is on the roster.

Braves Top-10 Minor League Relief Pitchers (6-10)

2009-11-20T21:15:09Z

Kevin Gunderson will need to improve his left/right splits if he hopes to earn a spot in Atlanta's bullpen.

View full size photo »

The fact is, most effective Major League relievers are converted starters. But, that's no reason to ignore the crop of pitchers performing primarily as relievers in the Braves' Minor League system, as the tops names are each not only talented but have succeeded as they've moved up the ladder.

6. Kevin Gunderson B/T: R/L Born: 9/16/1984 Ht: 5'10" Wt: 165
The nephew of former Major Leaguer Eric Gunderson, the diminutive lefty was drafted in the 5th round in 2006 after making a name for himself by leading Oregon State to a College World Series title by pitching effectively as both a starter and a reliever. Gunderson has only pitched out of the bullpen as a pro though, working his funky low 3/4 delivery for a 3.01 career ERA. After pitching the second half of 2008 with Mississippi, he returned to AA in 2009 and succeeded, collecting a 1-3 record, 2.55 ERA, and 1.31 WHIP in 49.1 innings.

When he was drafted it was believed that Gunderson would be able to move through the minor leagues quickly, but three and a half seasons later he's only played 2 games above AA. The good news is that he's remained effective throughout his career. While he doesn't have overpowering stuff, he still gets good movement on his fastball, good break on his slider, and, when he is able to harness it, his changeup is a weapon. Unfortunately, he didn't show much ability to negate lefthanded batters last season, allowing a .322 average against lefties compared to just a .211 average against righties.

Gunderson will likely be invited to Major League Spring Training with Atlanta to see if he can earn a bullpen spot, but he'll probably be spending the majority of 2010 with Gwinnett trying to refine his game. If he can continue to remain an effective reliever he'll certainly be looked at as a Major League option, but if he isn't able to get lefites out at a better rate he won't have much success at the highest levels.

T7. Luis Valdez B/T: R/R Born: 5/5/1984 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 205
Valdez is proof that Minor League free agent signings shouldn't be overlooked. After struggling to harness his talent in four seasons with various Pirates A ball teams, mostly working as a starter, he was signed by Atlanta prior to the 2008 season to provide bullpen depth for Mississippi. He went on to shine as the team's closer, collecting 28 saves in an All-Star season. He followed up that performance by collecting another 27 saves in 2009 for Gwinnett, while also racking up a 5-4 record with a 3.28 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 71.1 innings. He made his Major League debut with the Braves in July, pitching one game then and two others late in the season.

With his low to mid 90s fastball, diving slider, and show-me changeup, Valdez is the typical reliever. His stuff is good enough to make him dominant out of a Minor League bullpen and he should have little problem adapting to Major League hitters. By getting knocked around in his early career with the Pirates, he learned a lot about who he is as a pitcher and what he needs to do to succeed. The reason he's been so successful with the Braves is that he's cut back the types of pitches he throws and has trusted his stuff.

Valdez is likely to be given a chance to earn a spot in Atlanta's bullpen out of Spring Training in 2010 and there's little reason to doubt that he'll be able to earn one. No matter what Frank Wren works out with the back of the bullpen, there's likely to be a spot or two up for grabs and Valdez has both the physical stuff and the mental makeup to claim one of those positions.

T7. Ryan Weber B/T: R/R Born: 8/12/1990 Ht: 6'0" Wt: 170
After playing for the Juinor National Team in high school, Weber was thought of as a possible 1st round draft pick, but scared teams off on draft day with his contract demands and wasn't picked until the 12th round by the Phillies. He opted to go to Junior College, hoping for a better result a year later, but fell even further in the draft, as the Braves picked him in the 22nd round. The team managed to sign him right near the deadline and they were rewarded with their dilligence as he pitched well in 10.1 innings for the Orlando Braves in the GCL, working a 1.74 ERA and 0.77 WHIP while striking out 13 and walking none.

Weber is smallish but he's also deceptive, with a delivery that hides the ball from the hitter, a whip-like arm action, and a low 3/4 arm slot. His fastball is a plus pitch, working with a ton of movement in the mid 90s, and he combines it with a big, looping slider that rolls in in the low 80s. He'll be just 19 entering the 2010 season and though he'll start with Rome, his unique skill set indicates that he might be able to blow through Atlanta's Minor League system.

T9. Lee Hyde B/T: R/L Born: 2/14/1985 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 185
Before 2009 there was a rumor that Lee Hyde was a myth. After a standout career at Georgia Tech the Atlanta native was drafted in the 4th round of the 2006 draft by the Braves and pitched well in 16 games between Danville and Rome. But then he suddenly disappeared into the mythical realm of Big Foot, the Loch Ness Mosnter, and Marlins fans. The stats say he pitched 16 games between 07 and 08, but nobody could be found to actually verify this. The Legend of Lee continued in in early 2009 as he was nowhere to be found once again. But, in May, something strange happened, Hyde was actually able to take the mound and by the end of the year he had pitched in 26 games, 45% of his career total, and pitched well, with a 5-2 record, 2.27 ERA, and 1.03 WHIP in a career high 35.2 innings while striking out 11.4 batters per 9 innings.

While Hyde hasn't always been able to show his pitching ability, one thing his recovery from Tommy John surgery has shown is his determination and work ethic. A former starter, Hyde mixes a low 90s fastball with run on it with a mid 80s slider and a developing knuckle-curve, which could become his best pitch. He's been as effective against lefties as he has against righties and has an advanced feel for pitching.

Pitching in the Arizona Fall Leauge, a league roundly known for the quality of its hitters, Hyde has performed well, striking out 13 in 12 innings while allowing 4 runs and a.167 average against. He was added to the Braves' 40-Man roster today and while he'll like return to AA Mississippi to start 2010, his age, he'll be 25 at the start of the season, combined with his talent, indicate that he could find himself in Atlanta's bullpen by the end of the season.

T9. Brett Butts B/T: R/R Born: 4/24/1986 Ht: 6'1" Wt: 190
The nephew of longtime Atlanta strength coach Allan Butts, Brett was drafted out of Auburn in the 19th round in 2007. He's moved throughtthe system quickly, succeeding at every level and made huge strides for AA Mississippi in 2009 as he led the team with 53 appearances collecting a 7-3 record, 2.58 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 73.1 innings.

Butts doesn't have overpowering stuff, working with an average fastball, slider, and changeup, but he's an advanced college player who knows how to pitch and, more importantly, how to pitch out of the bullpen. Like Valdez, Gunderson, and Hyde, he'll likely be invited to Atlanta's Major League Spring Training, and though he's apt to spend the majority of the season with AAA Gwinnett, there's a good chance that he could find himself as an option out of Atlanta's bullpen at some point in 2010.

Tom Glavine Talks on Sirius XM Radio

2009-11-20T19:28:18Z

More photos » by Paul Abell - AP

It seems like some of the bitterness of the Braves' decision to cut Tom Glavine (evident in this picture from June 5th of this year) has finally left the future Hall of Fame pitcher.

Browse more photos »

I was sent this transcript by the media guy over at Sirius XM Radio's MLB Home Plate show. I thought it had some good quotes from Tom Glavine... he usually has good quotes when he's asked questions:

Yesterday, Nov. 19, on ‘SIRIUS XM’s MLB Home Plate’ channel, hosts Seth Everett and Jim Duquette spoke with Tom Glavine about his future plans and Bobby Cox’s pending retirement.

Host/Seth Everett: "Tell us about the way your season came to a close and what your thought process is as we hit November. Free agency signing period starts tomorrow. What is your attitude in terms of what you think your future is?"

Tom Glavine: "I honestly don’t know. I didn't like the way my season ended last year. It has been well talked about and well documented. Obviously I wasn't happy about it and I thought it should have gone differently than it did but it didn't. And that’s something on a personal level that I have to deal with and I have dealt with. I’m okay with it. I’m okay with it now. I’ve moved on. I don't know what the next chapter of life is for me. I'm not closing the door on playing next year but I really don't see myself at this point in time playing. I mean, a lot of things would have to change. I don't know what I am going to do next. Assuming I don't play, I don't know if it is going to be to get into the broadcasting side of the game or trying to get into a front office type situation with somebody and start learning that side of the game. I don't know. I see myself staying around the game a little bit that's for sure, but I’m not quite sure exactly what it is that I want to do. I've been home since June of last year and it’s actually been kinda nice being home, hanging out with my boys, and being a dad so I don't know how soon I want to get away from doing that."

Host/Jim Duquette: "Bobby Cox has announced that he is going to manage his last year in 2010. It’s hard to imagine him not being in that dugout beyond 2010. Your thoughts on his pending retirement?"

Glavine: "There are certain guys that you just don't ever expect not to see in that uniform or in that dugout anymore and Bobby is one of those guys. You look at the Braves and for so many years they had the stability of myself, and Smoltzy, and Maddux, and Chipper Jones now and all those guys you kind of knew from year to year were going to be there and slowly but surely, everybody has gone by the wayside. Bobby has kind of been the lasting guy. And I think a lot of people thought they would have to tear the uniform off him to get him out of the dugout. That'll be extremely strange for a lot of people when that day comes to look over there and not see Bobby yelling at the umpires anymore or cheering the guys on in the dugout. It's going to be a big adjustment, I think, for everyone involved with the organization but sooner or later you have to make those changes. I feel bad for the guy who has to come in after him because you know as much as everyone talks about, ‘Oh, he’s not filling Bobby's shoes’, that's exactly what everybody’s going to think he's doing and its going to be a tough assignment for whoever comes in after him."

SIRIUS XM’s MLB Home Plate channel is available to listeners nationwide on XM channel 175 and SIRIUS channel 210 with the "Best of XM" package.

Royals sign former Braves pitcher Jorge Campillo

2009-11-20T17:51:26Z

Royals sign former Braves pitcher Jorge Campillo

I did not see that coming... no, wait, yes I did.

Braves Add Five Players to 40-Man Roster

2009-11-20T15:46:46Z

Today is the last day to set 40-man rosters to protect players from the Rule 5 draft later this month. Per Mark Bowman, the Braves added five pitchers, left-handers Lee Hyde, Jose Ortegano and Jonny Venters and right-handers Jeff Lyman and Kyle Coffield. Bowman has a writeup of each player here.

Lee Hyde and Jeff Lyman will be reviewed today and tomorrow respectively here as Talking Chop presents our top-10 Braves minor league relievers. I'm a personal fan of Hyde, and I think he'll be a solid bullpen contributor in a year or so. Lyman seems to be following the Blaine Boyer track, and Coffield and Venters could be on that starter to reliever track as well. Ortegano was ranked last week as the Braves third-best left-handed starting pitching prospect, and you can read a review here.

A notable player who was not added is outfielder Matt Young. If we give enough credit to the Braves for thinking all the way ahead to this day, then we may be able to understand why Young was kept in double-A for all but 7 games this year, for the second consecutive year -- they didn't want to expose him to this draft after having played at a higher level. Though it is highly unlikely that he would be taken.

Interesting Free Agent Rankings

2009-11-20T14:33:52Z

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

Billy Wagner could wind up in an Atlanta Braves uniform next year.

Browse more photos »

Keith Law ranks the top-50 free agents at ESPN Insider. Some interesting notes:

He lists Mike Gonzalez 16th, ahead of Rafael Soriano, saying they are the two best relievers on the market, but he considers Gonzo healthier and more valuable from the left side.
Rafael Soriano is 19th, and the thing that jumped out at me is that Law says he should be looking for K-Rod type money in a contract. Francisco Rodriguez got a 3-year, $37 million deal after leading the AL in saves, Soriano has been a full-time closer for less than a year, and as my 2009 review of him showed, he regressed throughout 2009. I can't see a team desperate enough to give Soriano that type of money, or even close. Maybe I'm misjudging the market for relievers.
Billy Wagner is ranked 23rd, and Law says of him that the biggest concern is if he can handle the closer's workload, and that an incentive-laden contract for games finished would make sense for the signing team. I can see the Braves being open to something along those lines.
He mentions a Japanese reliever named Ryota Igarashi, and I can see the Braves taking a chance on him if he chooses to come to the States.
Adam LaRoche is listed 29th, and while the review is not glowing -- pointing out his overall averageness and his first half swoon -- Law seems to think that some team will still pay him like a regular first baseman in both salary and years. This could easily put the Braves out of the running. I still think our best option is to offer him arbitration and act excited if he accepts, keeping him around for one more year.
I noticed that there were a lot of free agent second basemen. Teams needing a second baseman and not wanting to give up the draft picks to sign one of the free agents may create a market for Kelly Johnson.

Good overview of the free agents by Law, if you're an insider you should check it out.

I did an interview about the Braves' off-season at Simon on Sports

2009-11-20T00:14:47Z

I did an interview about the Braves' off-season at Simon on Sports

I answered the best I could, though I think my opinions on some topics change daily. The one thing I do know is that the Braves have a lot of holes to fill once again this off-season.

Report: Braves Attempting to Move Derek Lowe

2009-11-20T00:05:31Z

From Ken Rosenthal, we learn that the Atlanta Braves have had what seems like several conversations with teams about trading starting pitcher Derek Lowe, but they have had little luck finding a taker:

The Braves' most extensive discussions concerning Lowe have been with the Brewers about a trade for outfielder Corey Hart, according to one source.

But the Brewers are not sure they would want Lowe even if the Braves included significant money in the deal, another source says.

Another team showing interest is the Angels:

The Angels, who showed interest in Lowe about a month ago, according to sources, could use him to replace Lackey in their rotation. The Braves, seeking a right-handed hitter, like Angels outfielder Juan Rivera.

Rosenthal also speculates that the White Sox could be a match for the Braves, in a possible swap for right-handed first baseman Paul Konerko, but no sources are cited for that rumor.

The rumor about the Brewers seems quite credible since Rosenthal mentions two different sources, and the Braves have long had eyes for Corey Hart (though I don't know why). Once John Lackey signs, the market for Lowe may open up, with those teams who lost out on Lackey willing to up their offer to get Lowe. The Braves could still reverse course and choose to deal Javier Vazquez, but for the moment it seems clear that they are focused on moving Lowe and his contract (even if they have to eat part of it).

[UPDATE 8:15pm]

Mr. Rumor Clarification (aka Mark Bowman) was quicker than he normally is in clarifying the above rumor. Here's Bowman:

The Braves see the Brewers as a potential suitor for Derek Lowe. But contrary to a report on FOXSports.com, they have never been interested in trading the veteran sinkerballer in exchange for Brewers outfielder Corey Hart.

Good. I feel the same way about Corey Hart. No thank you. Bowman reiterates an statement he made earlier in the off-season that the Brewers are primarily interested in Javier Vazquez. He also mentions that the Braves have strong interest in trying to match up Lowe with the Angels in a trade.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Middle Relief

2009-11-19T15:48:31Z

More photos » by John Heller - AP

Atlanta Braves reliever Peter Moylan was one of the most valuable members of any team's bullpen last year.

Browse more photos »

Middle relief is never a sure thing in baseball. The Atlanta Braves have been lucky in the past to have cobbled together good middle relief corps. They haven't been so lucky the last few years, but last year they did a decent job of assembling good middle relievers while working around some injuries.

The most striking thing about the 2009 middle relief crew was how fast the team was to make a change early in the year. The Braves hadn't broke camp a week when they released Blaine Boyer after two (out of three) disastrous outings. Blaine bounced around the rest of the season, ultimately finding some success (or luck) in Arizona. The Braves were also quick to cut ties with Jeff Bennett after he went kung-fu on the clubhouse wall.

Peter Moylan

Perhaps the rock of the 2009 bullpen, Peter Moylan appeared in 87 games only a year removed from Tommy John surgery. He got off to a rough start, but continued to battle, and posted a 1.00 ERA in the second half of the season. He gave Bobby Cox the luxury of having a second setup man, and his 25 holds led the team and ranked 6th in the NL.

Going back to the 87 games he appeared in, that should raise some alarms, but Moylan insists he likes to pitch that much and many say that his arm angle puts less strain on the elbow than an overhand motion. Those 87 games ranked one game behind the NL leader in appearances for a pitcher, and the Braves had 4 relievers in the top-10 in appearances.

Eric O'Flaherty / Boone Logan

One of those relievers who was in the top-10 in appearances was Eric O'Flaherty. The lefty specialist appeared in 77 games (56.1 innings pitched) and put in his best work as a major leaguer. The Braves got him off the waiver wire from Seattle last off-season, and he beat out Boone Logan in spring training for the LOOGY role. A minor pick up at the time, his good season makes that move look genius -- getting a reliever like that without having to give up anything.

Boone Logan came over as part of the Javier Vazquez trade. He was called up several times in 2009, but had spotty success while being used rather sparingly by Cox.

Here is a breakdown of all the lefty relievers on the Braves in 2009, and how they did versus left and right-handed batters:

Pitcher	BA vs. RH	BA vs. LH
Mike Gonzalez	.218	.194
Eric O'Flaherty	.282	.215
Boone Logan	.364	.231

O'Flaherty was pretty close to Gonzalez in handling lefties, but Logan wasn't that far away either. The big difference between O'Flaherty and Logan comes when they're facing right-handed hitters, with Eric having the clear advantage in that department. The Braves will probably want to keep all the depth they can, but Logan is out of options and arbitration eligible this year, so a non-tender might be in his future.

Kris Medlen

While Medlen posted a respectable 4.26 ERA for a rookie, his ERA as a reliever was even better at 3.47. He struck out more than a batter per inning in relief and gave up less than a hit per inning while keeping his walks in check. He was used inconsistently at times, getting long rests only to pitch on consecutive days. This unfamiliarity with the major league bullpen role caused Medlen to admittedly undergo some growing pains, but his work ethic kept his spirits up and his mind ready for any situation.

He could certainly move into a setup role next year, and may become one of the more indispensable members of the Atlanta pen. With the Atlanta rotation at 120% capacity, there's little chance that he would move back to a starting role, but his familiarity with starting may make him an ideal emergency swing man -- further increasing his value to the bullpen and the team.

Manny Acosta

Here are Acosta's ERAs the last three years:

2007 - 2.28
2008 - 3.57
2009 - 4.34

Meanwhile his FIP has hovered around 4.77, and has never been below 4.25, so that should tell us that Manny is either getting real lucky or he's getting bailed out by other Atlanta relievers -- either way it seems to be catching up to him. He is becoming more and more worthless, and that tells me his spot in the pen is in question.

Others

Jo-Jo Reyes and James Parr could find some time in the bullpen in 2010, though neither is ideal for the role. Luis Valdez is doing well in winter ball, and he could play a prominent role in the pen as well. I wondered why the Braves didn't use him more this year, especially towards the end, but maybe they wanted him to get work in winter ball and not the majors.

As always, there is a lot of work to be done this off-season to bolster the Atlanta bullpen.

Freddie Freeman is interviewed in the AFL

2009-11-18T17:01:48Z

Freddie Freeman is interviewed in the AFL

Project Prospect was out in the AFL last week and collected a lot of interviews with various prospects. Freeman talks about his injuries and the experience of playing in the AFL. It's a great five and a half minute interview.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Mike Gonzalez

2009-11-18T14:16:16Z

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

The typical Gonzo pose.

Browse more photos »

If Rafael Soriano was the Atlanta Braves closer that came out of the gate strong and finished poorly, then Mike Gonzalez is the opposite -- the closer who started out poorly and finished strong. Gonzalez was in the co-closer role out of spring training, but he was clearly favored by Bobby Cox to get the lions share of saves. Gonzo blew four saves in the first half of the season before losing his job to Soriano. He also ended up blowing three more saves the rest of the season while mainly working in a setup role.

Soriano's season was relatively easy to point to and say, "look, his ERA increased each month throughout the year, that's what his problem was." But with Gonzalez it's not that easy. He had the typical reliever monthly splits, where he'd have a good month, then a bad month, then a good month, and so on. Though he did finish out the year with two consecutive good months.

Gonzalez and Soriano are pretty similar pitchers, whose 2009 seasons as a whole look mighty similar. Their ERAs were similar, their innings pitched, and most of their percentage numbers were fairly close, with Soriano having a slight edge. Both pitched in high leverage situations with equal frequency. While Soriano may have the distinction of picking up more saves by virtue of pitching more ninth innings, they were in about the same number of save situations (34 for Gonzo and 37 for Sori). The only other Braves reliever who came close to that many high-leverage situations was Peter Moylan, who appeared in 32 save situations.

The luxury that we experienced in 2009, of having two pitchers who were essentially closers pitching in the eighth and ninth innings, is not something the Braves have had in recent years -- at least not two relievers like that who were both healthy for an entire year.

This got me thinking about the biggest question mark of this season. It may not be who plays first or who fills the corner outfield spots, it is more likely "who pitches the last two innings of the ball game?" To get to the point where Soriano and Gonzalez were our co-saviors, we had to trade away a starting pitcher and a starting first baseman. This begs the question, "what will we have to trade away to replace these guys?"

The quick and easy answer is to retain one of both of them, with Mike Gonzalez being the player that many around the team think the Braves have a better shot at retaining. This was thrown a huge curve ball yesterday when it was revealed that Scott Boras is now representing Mike Gonzalez. The m.o. for Boras is to ask for more years at more money per year than the Braves are generally comfortable giving away to a free agent. This may have put Gonzalez out of reach for the Braves. Perhaps our best hope now is that Boras takes those demands to other teams and is turned down, only to fall back to the Braves who hopefully offered Gonzalez arbitration.

There's no reason to think that Gonzalez can't be an effective closer for years to come. He often let's his adrenaline get the better of him, but if he can learn to control that while continuing to harness the positive effects of that adrenaline, then he should still be counted on in the ninth inning.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Rafael Soriano

2009-11-17T22:47:34Z

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Atlanta Braves closer Rafael Soriano could use all the heavenly help he can get.

Browse more photos »

Reviewing a reliever is not an easy task. There are plenty of ugly numbers that can jump out at you, but there are also some pretty numbers that can't be ignored; such is the case with Atlanta Braves closer Rafael Soriano. Raffy didn't start out the year as the closer, he was a co-closer with Mike Gonzalez, but he eventually won the job outright and became a big part of the team's turnaround.

First, we have to look and see if it's possible to ignore the ugly numbers. Soriano posted 1 win against 6 losses while converting 27 of 31 save attempts -- 4 blown saves. Those 6 losses versus just 4 blown saves tells us that he was also unsuccessful in tie games (3 of the BS resulted in losses, 3 were in tie games). In all we can attribute 6 losses directly to Soriano, but that's just 6 out of the 77 games he appeared in, of which he finished 52 of them.

Soriano had an 87% save percentage, while the Braves relief core (which included Soriano) had a paltry 63% save percentage. In converting saves, Soriano had a higher save percentage than Jose Valverde, Jonathan Broxton, Fancisco Rodriguez, and many others. Those 6 losses and 4 blown saves may look bad, but as far as late inning pitchers go Soriano was above average.

One of the knocks on the 2009 season of Soriano is that he didn't finish strong, and he didn't. While he took sole possession of the closer's role in July, saving 9 games, he also became a bit more unlucky starting that month. But it wasn't until the last two months of the year when the hits really caught up with him and his longball problems returned. His ERA progression can be seen below:

	April	May	June	July	August	Sept/Oct
ERA	0.90	1.54	1.20	3.97	4.50	5.17
Innings Pitched	10	11.2	15	11.1	12	15.2
Hits Allowed	3	8	9	7	11	15

This could be attributed to the low workload that Soriano had last year, and his body perhaps not being ready for the added strain of all the accumulated innings. The numbers are somewhat alarming and make me wonder if this poor trend will carry over into the following year. In none of his other full major league season can I find this regression throughout the year.

So there is Soriano, a little bit of good, a little big of not-so-good, but this is the trouble with relievers. Looking too deep into the numbers can make you go blind trying to find the why of what went wrong or what went right. Relievers' numbers often do not come with a big enough sample size to really extrapolate meaningful trends. The one trend of increasing ERA that I highlight above could simply be overuse -- Soriano threw more innings and appeared in more games that any other year of his career. Or it could be something else. A mental lapse here or there at the end of a mentally draining season.

The Braves should want to bring Soriano back. Despite his 6 losses, he stabilized the closer's role and gave us a closer as good as many of the marquee names out there.

Two Major League sources have confirmed that Mike Gonzalez has chosen Scott Boras to now serve as...

2009-11-17T21:50:44Z

Two Major League sources have confirmed that Mike Gonzalez has chosen Scott Boras to now serve as his agent. The left-handed reliever had previously been represented by Dan Lozano of the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Mike Gonzalez signs with Scott Boras
Frank Wren and agent Scott Boras are on better terms than Boras and John Schuerholz were, so the relationship should no longer be a hurdle, but the $$$ that Gonzo will now cost might be. I wonder if this will affect whether or not the Braves will offer him arbitration.

Braves Have 16 Minor League Free Agents

2009-11-17T17:03:31Z

After an outstanding 2008 for Myrtle Beach, Ernesto Mejia missed the majority of 2009.

View full size photo »

The list of Six-Year Minor League Free Agents has been released and the Braves have 12 players on that list:

Pitchers: RH Bobby Brownlie, RH Jerome Gamble, LH Mariano Gomez, RH Moises Hernandez, RH Lance Niekro, LH Juan Perez

Catchers: Jose Camarena, Alvin Colina

Infielders: 2B/SS Chris Burke, SS/3B Kody Kirkland, 1B Ernesto Mejia, 3B Antonio Perez

In addition to these players, RHP Jorge Campillo, RHP Buddy Carlyle, RHP Vladimir Nunez, and OF Reid Gorecki were previously announced as Minor League free agents after being removed from the Braves' 40-man roster.

Brownlie was one of the top amateur talents when he was drafted in the first round by the Cubs in 2002 but his career has been sidetracked by a series of injuries. He joined Gwinnett in the middle of the season and had a fairly effective run as a swingman, going 5-2 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 56.2 innings. If the Braves find they need more depth at the upper level he could be re-signed.

Like Brownlie, Gamble has missed large parts of him Minor League career to injuries, but he's been effective playing for Mississippi and Gwinnett the last two seasons. He spent the majority of 2009 with Mississippi, mostly as a reliever, going 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 44.1 innings. Gamble is a good influence on younger players, so it's possible he could return.

More analysis after the jump...

Gomez has the rare distinction of being the first player ever signed out of his native Honduras, inking with the Indians in 1999. 2009 was his first season with the Atlanta organization, the 10th of his career, and the best of his career, as the big lefty was great out of the bullpen for Gwinnett, going 8-4 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 72.1 innings. The Braves like him and if they can beat out the competition he's very likely to return.

Hernandez was aquired from the Orioles in exchange for allowing Leo Mazzone to become their pitching coach. He missed the entire 2008 season to Tommy John surgery and only pitched 35 innings in 2009. He'll be 26 going into 2010 with only 10 games above A ball in his career, so he seems unlikley to return.

The son of former Brave Joe Niekro and nephew of Braves legend Phil Niekro, the former infielder Lance took his first fulltime try at pitching, employing the family knuckleball, in 2009. He remained in the low level GCL, working a 1-3 record and a 5.61 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 33.2 innings. If the Braves liked the progress he made, regarless of the results, they could bring him back and give him a chance to try the knuckler at a higher level.

Perez missed the second half of 2008 for Pittsburgh's AAA team and got a late start in 2009 for Gwinnett, but pitched well in 57 innings, compiling a 2-4 record, 3.47 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He could be brought back to add AAA depth.

Camarena has been a backup for the majority of his career with Atlanta, playing just 32 games with Mississippi this year, ending with a woeful .424 OPS. But, with the Braves lack of upper level catching depth, he could find himself re-signed.

Colina lent a strong, veteran presence to Gwinnett, sharing time with Clint Sammons at catcher. in 256 plate appearances, he hit .262 with 8 home runs, 42 RBI, and a .766 OPS. Again, with the lack of upper level catching depth, but even more because of the intangibles he brings, he seems very likely to return in 2010.

After being picked up in June, Burke was a solid veteran presence for Gwinnett, playing SS, 2B, and LF for the team while hitting .285 with 3 HR, 32 RBI, 13 SB and a .752 OPS in 309 plate appearances. He showed that isn't washed up, so there could be several teams vying for his services this offseason.

Kirkland was signed to be a backup at Mississippi and despite poor hitting, a .201 average and .572 OPS, he excelled in this role, playing every position on the field except C and LF. He was actually very good in 44 plate appearances for Gwinnett, hitting .289 with a .807 OPS. If the Braves need a backup for the upper levels he could be brought back.

Mejia had one of the best seasons in the Braves' system in 2008, hitting .274 with 47 doubles, 21 home runs, 93 RBI and a .829 OPS. But, after tearing his ACL in Spring Training, he missed most of 2009, collecting just 139 plate appearances. Given his talent, the Braves will be very likely to re-sign him and, due to his recent injury, there probably won't be much competition for his services.

Perez, who was once traded for Lou Pinella, was signed as a backup and didn't show much with the bat in 147 plate appearances for Gwinnett, hitting .190 with a .553 OPS. He seems unlikely to return.

The Nippon Ham Fighters on Tuesday announced the acquisition of former Atlanta Braves pitcher Buddy...

2009-11-17T16:22:43Z

The Nippon Ham Fighters on Tuesday announced the acquisition of former Atlanta Braves pitcher Buddy Carlyle.

Buddy goes to Japan
This is probably a good move by Carlyle. He would likely only have gotten a minor league deal with a team in the states. It's also possible that he wanted to go back to starting and this was a means to an end.

The Case of Jones v. Wells

2009-11-16T20:52:16Z

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Andruw never misses a meal.

Browse more photos »

At the end of the 2006 season, Andruw Jones had just completed his second consecutive 40+ homerun 125+ RBI season at only 29-years of age, and he looked like he might have finally become the powerful force in the middle of the Braves order... but would he remain there for the rest of his career? He was likely to demand a huge contract of many years with many zeros behind some pretty big numbers when he became a free agent a year later.

At the end of the 2006 season, Vernon Wells had just posted another 30 homer 100+ RBI season, and at 27-years of age he looked like the next coming of the great outfielders of our era. He was a year away from free agency, and like Jones, was also sure to demand a huge contract of many years with many zeros behind some pretty big numbers.

This is where two roads diverged in a wood, and each team took a different path. The Braves chose to ride out the rest of Andruw's contract, and seeing his performance decline, opted to let him walk away via free agency. The Blue Jays chose to sign their young star to a huge ball-busting contract of 7-years and $126 million. A contract that was so ridiculously back-loaded that the Jays are still on the hook for $105 million over the next 5 years.

Sometimes its the moves that a team doesn't make which determines their fate for years to come. Had the Braves signed Jones to a similar contract, we'd be talking about who has baseball's worse contract, Atlanta or Toronto. As it is, the winner is clearly Toronto and the money yet owed to the pedestrian Vernon Wells.

MLBTR has a great look back at the Wells contract and what the baseball pundits said about that contract at the time. That piece got me thinking about the choice we made versus the choice that Toronto made. This is why we very rarely see the Braves commit so many years and so much money to any one player.

That also got me thinking about this article by Ken Rosenthal, in which he thinks the Tigers should trade Miguel Cabrera. Miggy has an equally monstrous amount of money left on his deal, and if it weren't for that I would say let's make a play for him. But I just can't see the Braves ponying up $20 million a year for a guy (not after they got burned by the Mike Hampton trade). If the price were right though, say Vazquez, Freeman, and another prospect (not named Heyward), and the Tigers could pick up some of the tab, then I'd have to seriously think the Braves would make a run at Cabrera, assuming of course that he's available. Even with the monster contract. Okay, now I'm rosterbating, and drooling a bit.

Tommy Hanson Finishes Third in the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year Award

2009-11-16T19:11:26Z

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Tommy Hanson finishes third in the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year voting.

Browse more photos »

Atlanta Braves rookie starting pitcher Tommy Hanson missed his chance to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Hanson was beaten out by Florida's Chris Coghlan, who won the ward, and Philadelphia's J.A. Happ, who finished second.

The highly touted Hanson lived up to everyone's expectations once he reached the majors in 2009. He went 11-and-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 21 starts -- but it was not enough of a dominating performance to convince voters he deserved the award over the other contenders. His chances were likely hurt by only pitching part of the year in the major leagues.

Interesting that Hanson won the SBN voting a week ago, conducted by bloggers. It seems as though the writers went with raw stats over any other factor in determining the awards once again this year.

This Week's Schedule at Talking Chop: November 16-22

2009-11-16T15:15:10Z

This week we will finish up all of the 2009 Player Reviews and the top prospects by position. The bullpen is the last area of the team to discuss and we'll continue with the format that we've been using all off-season, starting with the major league guys, then moving on to the minor leaguers.

Tuesday: Braves 2009 Season in Review: Rafael Soriano
Wednesday: Braves 2009 Season in Review: Mike Gonzalez
Thursday: Braves 2009 Season in Review: Middle Relief (we'll deal with the rest of the relievers in this post, or couple of posts)
Friday: Braves Top-10 minor league minor league relievers 6-10
Saturday: Braves Top-10 minor league minor league relievers 1-5
Sunday: Minor league relief pitchers round table post

During the Thanksgiving week we'll present the overall top-25 prospects, 5 per day, and then at the end we'll give you the TC reader a chance to submit your own top-25.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

2009-11-16T14:49:17Z

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Atlanta Braves hitter Brian McCann winning his third Silver Slugger award was just one of the highlights from this past week.

Browse more photos »

Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on November 15th:

In the Press...

Brian McCann won his third Sliver Slugger Award.
The Braves officially named Dave Wallace minor league pitching coordinator. They also named Garey Ingram hitting coach at double-A Mississippi.
The Braves signed a minor league shortstop as organizational depth.
After a couple of weeks of talking about it, and a week after it was signed, the Tim Hudson contract extension was officially announced.

At Talking Chop...

The SBN Awards were released, and Tommy Hanson won the SBN NL Rookie of the Year. Let's see if he can win the real thing this week.
CB presented the top-10 Braves right-handed starting pitching prospects in two parts, here and here.
Matt presented the top-10 Braves left-handed starting pitching prospects in two parts, here and here.
I think the Braves should sign Billy Wagner, simply because his agent is named Bean Stringfellow.
The bloggers at Talking Chop had round tables on right-handed and left-handed minor league starters.
Take the Braves out of the running for these free agents.
The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence continued to climb.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

royhobbs has a great review of the Brain McCann charity softball game.
tenesseejed1 shared some pictures of his trip to the AFL.
mvhsbball has a nice and nostalgic post about "Your first memory of the Atlanta Braves."

Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Climbs Higher

2009-11-16T13:21:38Z

There is a certain resiliency to the Braves, and their fans certainly feel the same way. After an exciting, then disappointing finish to the regular season, the Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Rating has climbed in each off-season sampling. The last in-season poll had the FCP at 64, then a climb to 70, then 72, and finally this week it reached 76 -- the highest the poll has been at any point since it was begun at the beginning of last season.

The signing of Tim Hudson certainly could have played a role in this turnaround, as the Braves and their fans now know that they will have the talented pitcher around for three to four more years, and that they also have the rotation flexibility to go out and trade one of their spare starting pitchers to fill other needs on the team.

The next poll will go up on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving.