Talking Chop

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Kenshin Kawakami

2009-11-07T23:39:40Z

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Atlanta Braves' starter Kenshin Kawakami.

Atlanta Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami took one month of the regular season to adjust to American baseball. His April starts produced a 7.06 ERA. While it was only four starts, including one really bad start, Kawakami made the adjustments and compiled ERAs of 3.03 and 3.33 the next two months, but because he still wasn't going deep in those games, he only won 3 of 10 starts in May and June. For the year he had the lowest quality start percentage of any of the Braves regular starters, as only half of his starts were considered quality starts.

The real theme of Kawakami's season was that his good games were really good, and his bad games were really bad. In his 12 losses he compiled a 6.24 ERA, giving up 74 hits in 57.2 innings; but in his 7 wins he had a 2.00 ERA and held opponents to a .196 batting average. He became known as the "dragon slayer" for his ability to pitch his best when his opposite on the mound was one of the top pitchers in baseball.

This "dragon slaying" started in Toronto when KK tossed 8 innings of 3-hit ball to best Roy Halladay. He out dueled fellow countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka a month later with 6 strong innings. He matched Clayton Kershaw pitch for pitch with 7 scoreless innings as the Braves bullpen picked up the win. Then he took down Johan Santana and the Mets by tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball. And in his last start he knocked of the Marlins ace Josh Johnson.

In his final month as a starter (August), Kawakami pitched his best; compiling a 2.87 ERA and 5 of his 6 starts were quality starts. The Braves then made him a reliever for the rest of the year to allow Tim Hudson to join the starting rotation. Kawakami made a good adjustment to the pen. While he added two losses to his record, he did compile a 2.63 ERA as a reliever.

Overall KK finished with a respectable 3.86 ERA, but had a 4.21 FIP, so he may not have pitched as well as his ERA shows, or his bad games and his bad first month could have distorted the FIP number. He had the highest walk percentage and extra-base hit percentage of any of the Braves starters, but he received the lowest run support, so that 6-and-12 record looks bad, but it probably should have been a little better.

It's doubtful that the Braves choose to trade Kawakami this off-season, as they currently have 6 starters and one will likely have to go. He showed last year that he can be effective as a major league starter, and he showed that he can adjust to the challenges of the big league game. He knows now what it will take for him to pitch every five days (in Japan he pitched every 6 days), and what it will take to approach 200 innings as a starter. We saw that he was a tireless worker who takes pride in his craft, and he should arrive next spring ready to re-assume his role in the starting rotation and improve upon his positive games of 2009. Perhaps it would help if the Braves put him in the position in the rotation to face the other team's number-1 starter every time out.

Could J.J. Putz be an option for the Braves?

2009-11-06T17:27:38Z

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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There's no official rumor on this, I just wanted to throw it out there and let it marinate, and I've seen it brought up here and there in some comments. J.J. Putz could be a good fit at closer for the Atlanta Braves, as he and the Mets are likely to part ways, but are we ready to take a chance on another injury-plagued reliever?

He had surgery to remove bone spurs on his throwing elbow last year, but then during his rehab he re-injured that same area that was described as "fraying and a slightly torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow." He is supposed to be fully recovered from that by the time spring training rolls around, and when healthy he can be a shutdown closer.

The positive spin here is that because he is coming off of an injury he could likely be signed to an affordable one-year contract, and perhaps even an incentive-laden contract that would protect Atlanta against him re-injuring the elbow. The obvious downside here is that we really shouldn't be counting on a guy coming back from injury to be our closer. We might make the same mistake with the bullpen that we made with the starting rotation two years ago -- relying on injury-prone pitchers.

Ideally we'd want to bring in someone else who could potentially close as insurance against Putz breaking down. Perhaps re-signing Mike Gonzalez could be that insurance.

Again, I'm looking for low-cost players with potentially high upside, and Putz falls into that category. That, and we're Irish twins.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Tommy Hanson

2009-11-06T14:15:19Z

After dominating the Arizona Fall League in 2008, becoming the first pitcher in the league's history to win the MVP award, Thomas J. Hanson continued to excel in the Atlanta Braves' 2009 Spring Training, with a win and no losses in 5 games (3 starts), while striking out 18 in 17.2 innings. The Braves felt he needed more seasoning though, and optioned him to AAA Gwinnett, where he was dominant, as well with 3 wins and 3 losses in 11 starts, compiling a 1.49 ERA, 1.046 WHIP and 90 strikeouts in 66.1 innings, good for 12.2 per 9 innings.

Tom Glavine was supposed to be the Braves' fifth starter in 2009, but nagging injuries prevented him from ever pitching for Atlanta this season, and the Braves legend and future Hall of Famer was released June 3rd, just as he was, according to him, ready to assume his role in the Braves rotation. This highly unpopular move coincided with Hanson's additon to the roster, just two days later, and it turned out to be one of Frank Wren's most savvy decisions of the season.

Hanson came out of the gate pitching like an ace, collecting 4 wins in his 5 June starts, with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP while striking out 18 in 29 innings. While he had a losing record in July, 1-2, and his ERA jumped over a run, to 3.94, his strikeout rate increased, from 5.6 per 9 innings to 6.5 and his walks dramatically decreased, from 17 in 29 innings to just 9 in 32 innings, leading to a drop in his WHIP, down to 1.25. These trends continued over the rest of his season, with his ERA dipping back below 3 for August and September as well, leading to a final line that saw him win 11 games, lose 4, compile an ERA of 2.89, a WHIP of 1.18, along with 116 strikeouts in 127.2 innings.

In all, it was a stellar rookie season for Hanson, one which should garner him attention in National League Rookie of the Year voting, if not the award itself. On his own team, he had the third lowest ERA among the regular starters, just behind Javy Vazquez's 2.87 ERA, as well as the third most innings per start, at just over 6 per, behind Vazquez and Jair Jurrjens. Hanson had the second lowest WHIP of the starters, just behind Vazquez, tied with Vazquez for the fewest hits per 9 innings allowed, 7.4, and was second, behind Vazquez, in strikeouts per 9 innings, 8.2, and strikeouts per walk, 2.52.

Hanson showed improvement in each of his 4 Minor League seasons, including his most dominant performance in the early part of this season with Gwinnett. His ability to step seamlessly into Atlanta's rotation as a 22 year old and improve throughout the year indicate that he is well on his way to becoming one of the better pitchers in the National Leauge. While there are many hurdles for him to overcome on that quest, including allowing fewer hits and walks, while striking out more batters, he'll enter 2010 as a 23 year old, firmly entrenched in the Atlanta rotation, and just beginning to show his seemingly limitless ability.

Four Atlanta Braves file for Free Agency

2009-11-06T13:35:24Z

The Atlanta Braves had four of five eligible players file for free agency yesterday. First baseman Adam LaRoche, outfielder Garret Anderson, pinch hitter Greg Norton, and reliever Mike Gonzalez all filed for free agency, leaving only reliever Rafael Soriano yet to file.

The two relievers, Gonzalez and Soriano, are both type-A free agents, meaning the Braves would receive two first round draft picks (1 and 1S) is they offered either arbitration and they signed elsewhere. Because they are expected to draw interest from several teams, the Braves will likely offer arbitration to both players, though they may only seek to actually try and re-sign Gonzalez, seeing him as the less costly of the two.

LaRoche and Anderson are both type-B free agents, and Atlanta would receive only one first round (supplemental) draft pick as compensation were they to be offered arbitration and sign elsewhere. It depends on how the Braves plan to approach this off-season and the stated goal of adding right-handed power bat as to whether they will offer LaRoche arbitration.

For the record, I'd like to see the Braves offer Gonzo, Soriano, and LaRoche all arbitration. If they did sign elsewhere with teams that had one of the 15-best records in baseball last year then the Braves could find themselves with 3 first round draft picks and 3 supplemental first round picks -- possibly 6 of the first 50 selections in the draft. By having extra picks, the Braves may also be less fearful about going after other type-A free agents and losing their own first round pick.

Poll

Which free agent would you most like to see the Braves retain?

Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg named Topps Appy League Player of the Year

2009-11-05T20:03:29Z

Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg named Topps Appy League Player of the Year

Our South African slugger receives an honor for the good year he had at Danville.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Jair Jurrjens

2009-11-05T18:38:13Z

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens may have been very lucky in 2009.

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Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens was good in 2009, but was he really a whole run better -- as he ERA from last year (3.68) to this year (2.60) showed? There are many Braves fans who are ready to anoint Jurrjens as the next in the great line of Braves starters, but to borrow a phrase from Lee Corso, "not so fast my friend."

Jurrjens certainly was a joy to watch in 2009, but aside from a tad bit more maturity and a little bit more durability, he was the same pitcher that toed the mound in 2008. While his ERA was over a run better than the previous year (as mentioned above), his FIP in 2009 (3.68) was worse than it was in 2008 (3.59). By those standards, Jurrjens was just a lot luckier this year. His strikeout and walk rates were virtually unchanged, his double play rate was the same, just about all of his rate stats were unchanged except his ratio of ground balls to fly balls allowed.

If there was an improvement in Jurrjens game in his second full year in the majors, it was that he seemed to learn to pitch to contact better and turn more of his batted balls into outs. He went from having a .307 BAbip in 2008 to a .274 BAbip last year. We could chalk this up to luck, but we could also say that Jurrjens was simply better at getting batters to hit the ball where he wanted them to, and part of that could have been pitching to more fly balls than ground balls.

So Jurrjens wasn't as good as his numbers say he was. He was a lot luckier than the year before, or in 2008 perhaps he just had a whole lot of bad luck. If we take that approach then the real Jair Jurrjens is probably somewhere between his 2008 and 2009 numbers. Keep in mind that he pitched in 3 more games, had 8 more quality starts, and pitched almost 27 more innings between last year and this year. Regardless of the glaring increase in his FIP, perhaps his increasing ability to pitch to contact successfully will continue in the coming years, but the odds are that we shouldn't be surprised if we see Jurrjens put up numbers that are closer to his 2008 numbers next season.

I'm all for riding the Jurrjens' Surgeons band wagon, and I'll enjoy the ride while it lasts, but keep in mind that he may be pulling something similar, though not as extreme, as what Jorge Houdini did in 2005. To continue his success, Jurrjens must continue to be a guy who pitches to contact effectively, and that can be a tough path to follow (unless your name is Greg Maddux).

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Javier Vázquez

2009-11-04T17:30:28Z

Javier Vazquez wasn't just the best pitcher on the Braves, but he was one of the best pitchers in all of Major League Baseball, in 2009.

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Quick, name the only starting pitcher in the NL East who never once pitched under five innings per start, over 30+ starts and 200+ innings, in 2009?

Overall, Javier Vazquez is one of five total pitchers in all of Major League Baseball (Grienke, Haren, Shields, Wainwright) to achieve this feat. Regardless of the wins and losses, there's something to be said about a pitcher who comes out consistently, does his job, and does it well. Really well.

I'm going to go out on a short limb here, and declare Javier Vazquez the Ace of the already outstanding Braves pitching staff. Now the definition of what an ace is, is often under debate, but in general, most people can agree on the following criteria:

Starts a lot of games
Wins a lot of games
Eats a lot of innings
Good ERA
Stops the bleeding
Doesn't walk a lot of guys
Strikeouts preferable

All this considered, Javier Vazquez accomplished the following:

32 starts is second on the team, behind the 34 starts made by both Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens.
15 wins is tied with Derek Lowe for most wins on the team.
His 219.2 innings pitched is the best on the Braves, best in the entire NL East, 4th best in the National League, and 11th best in all of baseball.
Vazquez's stellar 2.89 ERA is second, behind Jair Jurrjens's even more stingy 2.60 ERA.
Javier Vazquez made 17 starts in 2009, following a Braves loss. The Braves went 12-5 in those games, and 8-0 in their last eight Javy starts following a loss.
44 walks makes Javier Vazquez the most efficient pitcher on the staff; he walked fewer than even Tommy Hanson in 90 more innings and 11 more starts. Only four other pitchers in the 200-innings-pitched club, ML-wide walked fewer guys than Vazquez did. His 1.81 walks-per-nine is third best in all of baseball.
238 strikeouts makes Javy the best punch-out artist on the team, as well as the NL East, second best in all of the National League, and fourth best in all of baseball. He also sported a fancy 9.77 strikeouts-per-nine, which was third best in the National League, and fifth overall in the Majors.
Javier Vazquez pitched three complete games this season alone, which is as many as the Braves had in 2007 and 2008 combined. Yes, one of them was an eight-inning complete game loss, but so was Jorge Campillo's in 2008.
And just to throw this out there, Javy led the majors with 20 sacrifice bunts.

So the bottom line is that Javier Vazquez wasn't just the best pitcher on the Braves in 2009, but he was most certainly one of the best pitchers in all of Major League Baseball. The National League Cy Young will in all likelihood go to Tim Lincecum again, or maybe even Adam Wainwright, or Chris Carpenter, but I'll be grossly disappointed if Javy doesn't receive some Cy Young consideration himself. In the three Triple Crown categories that the BBWAA weighs heavily, when making their choices, Javier Vazquez is T-4th in wins, 6th in ERA, and 2nd in strikeouts.

I'm sure you're all aware of the negative stigma attached to Javy, about being not being able to hold up under the pressure of a critical game, and he certainly didn't help his cause with his final start of 2009, and I know baseball is no exception to the "what have you done for me lately" mentality that many sports fans harbor, and that pitchers are only as good as their last performance, but what a lot of people need to realize is that without Javier Vazquez, the Braves might never have been in a situation where there were critical games to be played. The four starts prior to his final, Javy pitched brilliantly, tossing 32 masterful innings, notching both his complete game victories, and allowing a paltry three earned runs. In a stretch where the Braves needed every victory to remain alive in the playoff hunt, who says Javier Vazquez couldn't handle pressure?

Honestly, there's not a whole lot much to ask for from Javier Vazquez, going into 2010. He's going to make a lot of starts, strike out a lot of guys, and eat a lot of innings - stuff we all knew he was capable in 2009 before he even threw a pitch with the Braves. Win more games? Take that request up with the offense, whom in Javy's ten losses, contributed a meager average of 1.3 runs of support in his losing starts.

Maybe, we could ask for him to sign some sort of extention to stay in Atlanta? As it stands right now, he's entering the final year of a three-year deal that sees him making $11,500,000 in 2010, which is an incredibly fair cost for a pitcher of Javy's caliber. Obviously, this much bang for the buck has not gone unnoticed by the baseball world, as Vazquez has been the topic of many a fantasy trade, that sees the Braves dealing their current ace pitcher, due to the luxury surplus of quality starting pitching in their current staff, for a potential package of prospects and/or the mythical "big bat" that will assist the Braves back into the glory days. All I'm saying is that I'd prefer to keep Vazquez through 2010, and potentially beyond, but I wouldn't be the least bit opposed to keep my ears peeled and entertain some offers to hear what's up.

Would it be possible to sign Javy to some sort of extension? Possibly. He has made statements expressing desire to stay in Atlanta, and many bring up the idea that he is opposed to going out to the west coast again, thus limiting the number of teams he could go to down a bit. But one thing to think about is how much of the Braves' money do you want tied up in starting pitching alone? Say the Braves extend Vazquez, but aren't capable of moving any of their starting pitchers - Derek Lowe is on the books for three more years, Kenshin Kawakami for two more, and if the supposed rumors come true, Tim Hudson for three. In 2011, Jair Jurrjens is eligible for arbitration. It goes without saying that in order to extend Vazquez, someone will have to be moved in order to have a chance of keeping the finances under somewhat control. Unless Liberty Media decides to actually open up the books a bit, which I'm sure is not going to happen.

So for better or worse, we're just going to have to assume that Javier Vazquez is going to be suiting up for the Braves come the start of the 2010 season. I expect more of the same from 2009, but there also stands the possibility that the "honeymoon period" of moving back to the NL after a long tenure in the AL helped his numbers, which I don't necessarily agree with fully, because he should have gotten worse as the year progressed, not better, like Javy's did. Either way, I'm looking forward to seeing more Javier Vazquez in 2010, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he might just be the Opening Day starter, for the Atlanta Braves.

Tim Hudson contract extension with the Braves essentially a done deal

2009-11-04T17:02:45Z

From MLB.com's Mark Bowman, here is the latest on the Atlanta Braves efforts to re-sign Tim Hudson:

Tim Hudson has passed his physical and essentially made his three-year contract extension a done deal. But the Braves may wait until the conclusion of the World Series to formally make this announcement.

Hudson and the Braves agreed to the terms of the three-year extension last week and then had to wait to find a doctor that the insurance company would approve.

David O'Brien reported a similar note this morning

The delay on Hudson extension resulted from the team having to find a doctor the insurance company approved of to do the physical. But they got the doc and Huddy passed the physical, from what I’m told. If so, it shouldn’t be much longer before they sign this deal and it gets announced.

Good. Signing Hudson is the right move. Now we get to endure a swirl of rumors about who the Braves will trade from the rest of the starting pitchers.

Atlanta Braves sign reliever Scott Proctor

2009-11-04T16:43:33Z

Here is the scoop from TCPalm's (regional Florida newspaper) website:

Pitcher Scott Proctor will return to the mound in 2010.

Proctor, the Martin County native, has reached an agreement with the Atlanta Braves on a one-year contract for the 2010 season, according to Proctor's Palm City-based agent Mark Rodgers.

Proctor was released by the Florida Marlins in October after missing the entire 2009 season because of Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.

"The Braves were very aggressive in their pursuit of Scott," Rodgers said Wednesday "They made it clear from the day the Marlins' released Scott that they had a strong interest in signing him to help improve their bullpen. It was obvious to me that the Braves appreciate Scott's track record with the Yankees and Dodgers. I am confident that Atlanta's needs in the bullpen best matched up with Scott's abilities."

The Braves had pursued Proctor way back in 2006 and 2007, so he is a guy they have long coveted. He'll be coming back from Tommy John Surgery, but if can do that successfully, then we have just added a strong and experienced bullpen arm for under a million dollars who doesn't yet have to occupy a space on the 40-man roster. It's a very worthwhile gamble to take on a reliever who could have a huge impact at some point next season.

Good first move of the off-season, Frank Wren. Now we're just waiting on the official word about Tim Hudson.

[UPDATE 1:30pm:]

Per MLBTR, here is an interesting tidbit:

Jeff Euston of Cot's Baseball Contracts informed me that Proctor would "have to spend all but about 21 days on the 25-man to qualify as a free agent after 2010." He'll probably need all of April in the minors, meaning the Braves could retain Proctor for 2011 as an arbitration-eligible player if he has a successful '10 campaign.

Some confusing verbiage there, but essentially we could keep him in the minors and off the 25-man roster until mid-May and thus retain him for the 2011 season. So we just picked up a year and a half of an experienced work-horse reliever. This deal is looking even better, with potentially more upside, and no need to really rush Proctor back next spring.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Derek Lowe

2009-11-03T18:50:43Z

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Atlanta Braves' Derek Lowe was actually not as bad in 2009 as his overall stats say he was.

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Did Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Derek Lowe really have this bad of a year? Is he really this bad of a pitcher? After all he posted an ERA almost a run higher than his career average, and he led the league in hits allowed, and he didn't even get to that vaunted 200 innings pitched plateau that was part of the reason we signed him.

I started out thinking this writeup would just be several paragraphs of me trashing Lowe, but then I looked deeper and thought about his 2009 performance in a different way.

His ERA was a robust 4.67, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was substantially lower at 4.06. This is not all that surprising for a ground ball pitcher, but it is a big gap. He also posted a batting average against of .301 -- the highest in his career, and part of why he led the league in hits allowed -- but that could have been helped by a high BABIP of .333. These are both similar numbers to what he put up during his last year in Boston, 2004. That year he had a .299 BAA and a .331 BABIP, which caused his ERA to jump up to an even uglier number (5.42) than last year.

We can only infer that these numbers are not the norm for Derek Lowe. His career numbers, even with these outliers factored in are that of a .262 BAA and a .295 BABIP, to go with a 3.84 ERA and a 3.79 FIP. These are much closer to what he did during the last four years in Los Angeles, and closer to the type of pitcher that we believe we actually got when we signed him to a 4-year contract at $15 mil a pop.

This reminds me of Tim Hudson's second year in Atlanta, where his numbers were just a little out of whack and no one, not even Tim, could point to why. I'd like to believe that Lowe just had a bad year, or several bad games that caused his numbers to be skewed away from what they normally would be.

When you look at his month-by-month stats he had three really good months that were in-line with or better than his career numbers, and three months where the numbers look absolutely horrible. Each of those horrible months the poor totals can be attributed to one or two really bad games,in which he gave up a significant amount of runs, but in the other games those months he continued to pitch well until the final month of the season. Here are some of his month-by-month starts for 2009 with quality starts highlighted:

Month	Quality Starts	Total Starts	ERA
April	3	5	3.10
May	5	6	3.76
June	4	6	6.54
July	4	5	3.38
August	3	6	5.08
Sep/Oct	2	7	6.23

While Quality Starts may not be the best judge of a pitcher's actual ability, we can see from these numbers that even in the bad months Lowe was still pitching good games and getting wins. This is probably why it's hard to figure why Lowe's record was the same as Javier Vazquez' record when Javy had an ERA that was almost two runs less. In Javy's case it was a lot of bad luck, bad run support, and bad bullpen, but that luck can cut both ways. Even putting luck aside, Lowe was his typical self for the vast majority of his starts, it was just those handful of starts that crushed his overall numbers.

So don't get too down on Derek Lowe. We still have a very good pitcher, and if other teams are looking at these numbers, perhaps they too will find value in what Lowe can bring them. This also should help to ensure that no one will be too terribly crushed if the Braves don't trade Lowe this off-season. He still won 15 games, and there's a reason for that -- he was the pitcher we paid for in most of those games.

At the beginning of this piece I would never have thought I would end up defending the 2009 season of Derek Lowe, but there you have it.

Braves not in the mix for Aroldis Chapman

2009-11-03T13:15:26Z

Just as fast as SI.com could spread the rumor, the Atlanta Braves General Manager Frank Wren has squashed the rumor that the Braves were planning to meet with Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.

The SI.com story referenced two unnamed sources who said that the Braves were planning to meet with Chapman, but Mark Bowman, Braves.com beat writer, sought clarification from Wren who said, "We don't have any plans to meet with him at this time." Should we read into that? While the Braves don't currently have any planned meetings set up at this time, perhaps they are planning to setup a meeting with him. Yep, I'm reading way too much into that.

Braves 1st-round lefty Mike Minor will get the start for the West Division

2009-11-03T00:35:51Z

Braves 1st-round lefty Mike Minor will get the start for the West Division

Ben Badler Tweets us this note...
...about Mike Minor starting in the AFL Rising Stars game this Saturday. The game will be televised at 8pm on the MLB Network. For most of us this will be our first chance to watch our top draft pick pitch.

Braves will make a play for Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman

2009-11-03T00:10:10Z

He's been one of the most talked about players to defect from Cuba in several years, and now the Atlanta Braves have joined the group of teams pursuing Aroldis Chapman, according to SI.com:

The Atlanta Braves are the latest team seeking to meet with Chapman's agent, two sources told SI.com.

Though an exact date, time and location for a meeting have not been established, the two sides are expected to schedule formal conversations in the coming weeks.

He's a 21-year old southpaw flamethrower who profiles as a top of the rotation starter, why wouldn't the Braves want to make a play for him. I was wondering if Atlanta was going to throw their hat in the ring. They have good roots with the ex-pat Cuban baseball community, as both Yunel Escobar and Barbaro Canizares are both Cuban-born, as well as bench coach Chino Cadahia and several other minor league players in the organization.

Baseball America releases their top-10 Braves prospects

2009-11-02T20:37:42Z

We get the second list this off-season of Atlanta Braves prospects, this one from Baseball America:

Jason Heyward, of

Freddie Freeman, 1b

Julio Teheran, rhp

Mike Minor, lhp

Craig Kimbrel, rhp

Christian Bethancourt, c

Randall Delgado, rhp

Zeke Spruill, rhp

Cody Johnson, of

Adam Milligan, of

Nice list. Unlike John Sickels, who gave us our first list this off-season, Baseball America ranks Cody Johnson appropriately, and not completely off the board. I also like the top-10 love their giving Adam Milligan -- I really like him and I think he has a good chance to be an impact prospect. Overall, this was a solid list.

Atlanta Braves Off-Season Fan Confidence Rises

2009-11-02T18:49:51Z

Perhaps it's the excitement of what might happen in the coming weeks, but whatever it is, the confidence of Atlanta Braves fans continues to rise (as measured by the Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Poll). The increase was a slight increase, from 70% two weeks ago to 72% this week. News of Tim Hudson being re-signed could have had a positive effect on the poll, perhaps enough to cancel out the negative effect that the injury news about Jason Heyward may have had.

The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Poll at Talking Chop is taken every two weeks during the off-season, and every week during the regular season.

This Week's Schedule at Talking Chop: November 2-8

2009-11-02T13:50:40Z

With the hitters behind us, this week at Talking Chop we begin our look at the pitching in the Braves organization by starting with the major league starters. We'll tackle one major league starter each day, starting tomorrow, and then next week we'll hit up the minor leagues for 20 of the Braves best young starting pitchers.

Here's the slate for this week:

Monday: Fan Confidence Poll Recap
Tuesday: Season in Review: SP Derek Lowe
Wednesday: Season in Review: SP Javier Vazquez
Thursday: Season in Review: SP Jair Jurrjens
Friday: Season in Review: SP Tommy Hanson
Saturday: Season in Review: SP Kenshin Kawakami
Sunday: Season in Review: SP Tim Hudson

Be sure to check back every day for new material.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

2009-11-02T00:39:17Z

Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on November 1st:

In the Press...

John Sickels released his top-20 Braves prospects for 2010.
The Braves hired former major league pitching coach Dave Wallace as their minor league pitching coordinator.
Chipper Jones was interviewed by Forbes.com.
It was reported by several different sources that Tim Hudson was close to a contract extension with Atlanta.
David O'Brien gave us an update on how our prospects are faring in the Arizona Fall League.

At Talking Chop...

Talking Chop was the first to report that Jason Heyward would return to Atlanta to have his injured hamstring examined. It was later learned that he would not be returning to the AFL, and will instead use the winter to recover.
We reviewed the 2009 season of center fielders Nate McLouth and Jordan Schafer and outfielder Matt Diaz.
CB reviewed the top-5 minor league center fielders and the top-5 minor league right fielders in the Braves organization.
The bloggers of Talking Chop conducted two round tables about the state of the left fielders, center fielders, and right fielders in the Braves system.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

royhobbs gave us a pictorial recap of the 2009 season.
Sid Bream's Moustache shared a link about the source of baseball's magic mud.
TradeAndruw linked to MLBTR's off-season outlook for the Braves.
traphicg thinks that the hiring of Mark McGwire as the Cardinals hitting coach paves the way for Chipper Jones to one day be the Braves hitting coach.
schaef888 was nice enough to recap a fan chat by prospect guru Jim Callis.

Talking Chop Round Table: Braves Right Fielders

2009-11-02T00:36:15Z

As part of season reviews for major league players and top prospect ranking for minor league players, we here at Talking Chop thought it would be a fun idea to get all of our bloggers together with the help of Google Docs and debate the various aspects of each position in the Braves organization.

The participants are, yours truly (gondeee, indicated by MG), yondaime4 (indicated by MF), royhobbs (indicated by DH), and cbwilk (indicated by CBW).

The round table for center fielders in the Braves organization is after the jump.

MG: Should the Braves give the right field job to Jason Heyward before spring training, or should they take a wait and see approach and see how his spring training goes before giving him the job?
MG: I'm of two opinions on this. One, I really want to see Heyward make the jump to the bigs and become all he can be. I wanted to see it last year, and I sure as hell want to see it as soon as possible next year. On the other hand, with the lost time in the AFL he just might not be ready, and the last thing we need is to bring up our brightest young star since Chipper Jones before he's ready. I have this idea that assuming the Braves get a "good" left fielder, they should plan on starting Matt Diaz in right (despite the defensive drop), and let him play right until Heyward is ready. Diaz can then spell both corner outfield spots and pinch hit.
CBW: I don't think they should give him the job before Spring Training, or even after Spring Training. I think they should do exactly what they did with Tommy Hanson, let him play in AAA for two months, until he proves without a doubt that he's ready, and also happens to bypass the possibility of becoming a Super 2 in arbitration, before they call him up June 1st. This scenario certainly will make some folks upset, as it likely means you have to go with a lesser player in RF for a few months (though if that guy is Matty Diaz, that's not too bad) and of course you'll run into the problem that if he does finally come up and dominate there will be people coming out of the woodwork, maybe even teammates, saying that he should have been there from the outset. But, this isn't about what makes people happy, or even really about what makes the team better for the first few months of the year, this is about what's going to be best for Heyward and the Braves long-term. My argument with Tommy Hanson has been that without those two months of AAA at the start of the year, he wouldn't have been ready and able to play well from the outset of his Major League career, and I'm taking that same argument with Heyward. The kid is 20 years old and he can learn a ton from a couple of months in AAA, enough to make him an instant force when he does reach the bigs. And, because he'd be skipping out on being a Super 2, the team would have more money a few years down the line to put pieces around him. To me, this scenario is the one that makes the most sense, and I'm betting it's the one that actually happens.
DH: Jordan Schafer and Tommy Hanson—good example of both scenarios. People will complain about the necessity to breathe air if they could, so complaining about some baseball decisions should be a given, no matter the path taken with Jason Heyward. People were unhappy when the league and an injury caught up to Schafer. People were unhappy when Hanson came out of the gate strong and that he should have been called up sooner—seriously I'd never expected to see so many people upset at seeing a young stud being 5-0? I am 100% in the camp that Heyward starts in AAA, or I'm not even going to rule out AA, regardless of how absurd his numbers in Spring Training might be. I've often felt that ST is nowhere close to gouging talent as much as it is a bunch of guys getting their bodies in shape for the rigors of the season. Pitchers are still trying to regain full arm strength, and a lot of people are coping with the cold in the early parts of the regular season; Schafer, who is a notoriously hard-worker might've (obviously) been in much better conditioning shape in ST, and blew away Blanco and Anderson, and forced the org's hand, before his stumble. Gauge the talent in games that have meaning—start Heyward in the minors, let him prove himself, save the money, and call him up at a good point where the team could use the adrenaline shot. As CB mentions, if "being stuck" with Matt Diaz, is the result in RF, we could do, loads worse.
MF: A couple of weeks ago I might have said yes, just let him do it because it is the simplest solution to our OF problems and I don't think, even if he were to struggle that he would produce less than Frenchy did last year. That said, with his recent injuries, I'd like him to get some time in AAA just to get his bearings. The X-Factor in all of this is Bobby Cox, because Bobby loved the guy last ST, and if Heyward comes in and pounds the ball this year he may say he wants him in Atlanta.

MG: Does anyone think we'll keep Ryan Church around next year? I have a feeling the Braves will non-tender him. Should we keep him around? Is there any reason to? Doesn't Brandon Jones fill that role if Atlanta needs him to?
DH: The question I have is, are there any other teams who would want him? He can play all outfield positions, adequate with the bat, and has some patience. I'm not necessarily convinced that Brandon Jones could produce at the Major League level as Ryan Church could offensively, and I like Church defensively a lot more than Bjönes. I make no assurance to knowing exactly how the process works, but whether or not any other team really wants Church or not, I don't see any harm in floating him a minor-league deal, and see what happens.
CBW: Personally, I'm a huge fan of Ryan Church, and as inneffective as he seemed to be for the Braves, he was still a ridiculous upgrade over Jeff Francoeur. Seriously, check the stats again, Frenchy was that bad. But, I don't think I love him enough to see him make 3 millon dollars as a backup outfielder. He's a smooth outfielder with the ability to play all three positions and he's got enough double power to see him being useful off the bench, where the fact that he swings from the left side is a huge plus, but that's a lot of money when the Braves need to bring in a real slugger, and I just don't see being able to tie it up. Also, Church seems to be hitting a huge downswing, possibly caused by injuries. Now, I don't neccessarily think Brandon Jones is the answer either, cause I don't think he'd be effective as a bench player, but there are any number of guys that could be signed as a free agent, even a minor league free agent, to come in and be a worthwhile backup outfielder. If they can non-tender Church and re-sign him to a Minor League deal, one that has a much cheaper salary for him should he make the team, I'd love to see him back.
MF: I think if we don't plan on bringing up Heyward as our opening day RF then keeping Church makes a lot of sense. Last year the reason why we didn't have a winning record in the first half of the season is because our entire OF was putting up sub .700 OPS. If we get the same production from the guys we have now whether it be Heyward or Church in RF and Diaz and McLouth (or even Schafer) in the other spots, I don't think we will get any guys putting up sub .700 OPS. If that happens we could be battling with the Phillies for the division lead. The real question is whether we want to pay Church or not, and if we do pay him his Arb raise, will we be able to move him when Heyward is ready.

MG: After Heyward I don't have a lot of faith in any of the Braves right field options. I went with Daniel Falcon as my number-2 RF prospect because at this point he has the most upside.
CBW: But really, after Heyward, what else do you need? When you've got a guy who could be a once in a generation star it's hard to expect the team to have much else at the same position. The fact that we have Cody Johnson and Adam Milligan in left field (as well as Robby Hefflinger, who I think is goig to be right with those two this time next year) and lesser, but still interesting prospects like Cory Harrilchak and Kyle Rose in center field, makes me think Atlanta's minor league outfield situation is pretty great. I don't think much of Falcon, or Anthony Feliz. In doing the writeup, I had a hard time finding much positive to say about them. Even if they both went to Rome in 2010 and had outstanding seasons, they'd still be a little old for me to be too excited about it. Heck, Falcon is the same age as Luis Sumoza, and Felix is older, and even though he had a down year, at least he's dominated short season ball, something neither of them have done. Chris Shehan is a decent player, and he might be able to rebound, but he's older and at best I really see him as a platoon/backup player. All of this makes me wonder why you guys were so willing to discount Jon Mark Owings. He had a bad year, but that was pretty much entirely due to the partially torn rotator cuff he suffered last year in the Carolina League playoffs. Ernesto Mejia didn't have a great year and only played in 36 games, but we had him 3rd on our 1B list. If you look at their 08 seasons in Myrtle Beach, they're pretty close, and while JMO loses some for being a year older than Ernie, he also isn't a complete defensive liability, in fact, he's an excellent outfielder. JMO is probably a better prospect than Shehan, Falcon, or Feliz, and maybe even better than Sumoza.
MF: CB's point is valid, just like what I was saying in the last roundtable. So what if our depth isn't great if we have a RF for the next 6 years? I'm not saying you don't need depth, but its not nearly as important when you don't have many glaring holes in the majors for the next couple of years. Concepcion Rodriguez played this season as a 22 year old in AA which is fine by me if you are looking for a backup OF. Sure he was pretty bad for most of the season, but he wasn't fall off the map bad and he was playing in Mississippi which can kill hitters. I will say I am not a fan of anyone else on the list really. Sumoza still has a chance, but he really needs to start harnessing his tools.

MG: To me, Luis Sumoza has fallen out of prospect status.
CBW: I guess it all depends on your definition of prospect status. He certainly wasn't considered for the Top 25 anymore, that's for sure, but I don't think he's done as a player or anything. He's only going to be 21 going into next year, so there's plenty of time for him to get better and this is the first time since his first go-round in the US (as a 17 year old) that he's struggled. The fact that he had trouble taking a walk is a huge concern and the massive amount of outfiled errors make me wonder how bad he really is in the field, but there are things to like. Even with the poor season, 28 is a ton of doubles to hit, and he's got a little bit of speed. I don't think he's a big time prospect, but I didn't really think that when we got him, and he's going to have to repeat Rome and prove something, but I'm betting he has a much better 2010.
MF: He still needs to walk more and he needs to tap into his raw power. It is all there, but he is becoming more of a tease than a real prospect in my eyes. I give him one more year.

MG: You guys seem to think pretty highly of Concepcion Rodriguez... why?
CBW: Well, he's a pretty prototypical outfield athlete and he had a great 2008, so there was some good reason to be excited about him coming into the year. And, frankly, he's fun to watch play. He's a natural athlete and he just looks smooth. I'd never see him becoming a star outfielder, but he could become a pretty good one, something like a David DeJesus. Once you look at his splits, you see that the biggest problem he had this year was dealing with Mississippi's park. It victimized a number of guys and made their years' look terrible; he hit .229 with a .534 OPS at home, compared to . 295 and a .753 OPS on the road. That's just a sign that he's not as bad as his totals make him look. (For reference about just how good Jason Heyward is, Mississippi's park didn't affect him at all; on the road for Mississippi he hit .342 with a 1.062 OPS compared to a .360 average and 1.055 OPS at home. Wow.)
MF: Why not? When compared to everyone else on this list he is the most advanced guy we have not named Heyward and he posted an .800+ OPS in 2008 in a league with an average .712. Ok his 2009 was pretty bad, but he was still only about 50 pts below the league average OPS and it was his first run through AA. I'm not saying this guy will ever be an every day RF for anyone, but I think he has the best shot out of the guys we have. He probably needs to walk some more and he needs to find that power that Mississippi took from him this year. And I would also like to point out that his OPS on the road this season was .752 which is about the league AVG in the southern league. We aren't looking at a star here, but he will be just 23 next season which is far from the end of the road for a prospect in the upper minors.

World Series, Game 3: Open Thread

2009-10-31T22:57:25Z

Whole Camels takes the mound for the Phils, against the winningest pitching in post-season history.

Lineup

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

10/31/09 7:57 PM EDT

New York Yankees	Philadelphia Phillies
Derek Jeter - SS	Jimmy Rollins - SS
Johnny Damon - LF	Shane Victorino - CF
Mark Teixeira - 1B	Chase Utley - 2B
Alex Rodriguez - 3B	Ryan Howard - 1B
Jorge Posada - C	Jayson Werth - RF
Robinson Cano - 2B	Raul Ibanez - LF
Nick Swisher - RF	Pedro Feliz - 3B
Melky Cabrera - CF	Carlos Ruiz - C
Andy Pettitte - P	Cole Hamels - P

Braves Top-5 Minor League Right Fielders

2009-10-31T13:00:21Z

Jason Heyward was named the top prospect in baseball by Baseball America and will enter the 2010 season as a 20 year old.

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It wasn't long ago that the Braves felt they were set for years with Jeff Francoeur in right field. But declining and outright poor performances by him over the last few years finally caused the team to cut ties in the middle of the 2009 season, forcing them to play Matt Diaz out of position in right field for the remainder of the year. While this transition has been unsettling, right field looks to be locked up again for the forseeable future very soon, as the top prospect in all of baseball looks poised to claim the starting job at some point in the 2010 season.

1. Jason Heyward B/T: L/L Born: 8/9/1989 Ht: 6'4" Wt: 220

What's not to love about Jason Heyward? Even before he grabs a bat or puts on a glove, you can simply marvel at his sheer size. He's blessed with a massive, strong frame, oozing with athleticism. Defensively, he's able to cover an outstanding amout of ground in right field, enough that he hasn't been overmatched the few times he's played centerfield in his career. Combined with his absolute laser beam of an arm, Heyward is a game winning force on defense alone. But then he steps up to the plate, where he not only has immense power, but and advanced idea of hitting that allows him to hit for average and take walks, making him an OPS machine. Add in a burgeoning knack for stealing bases, and he's showing himself to be a true five tool prospect, or, at worst, a four and a half tool prospect.

Over the years, many prospects overflowing with tools like Heyward have been unable to put up statistics to match their potential. That's not a prblem for him though, as he followed up an outstanding 2008 season that saw him put up a .316 average and .854 OPS, along with 29 doubles, 11 homre runs, 15 stolen bases, and 9 outfield assists, playing mostly for Rome, with a pheomenal 2009, split almost evenly between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi with a handful of games for Gwinnet, where he hit .323 with a .963 OPS to go with 25 doubles, 17 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and 14 outfield assists.

What's more impressive about those number is that he was able to put them up in 28 fewer games than in 2008, which leads to the only real knock on Heyward so far, that he seems prone to nagging injuries. He was forced to miss stretches of time with Myrtle Beach for minor oblique and leg injuries and was just forced to prematurely end his run in the Arizona Fall League due to an upper leg injury. Whether or not this is a trend or simply a fluke, perhaps created by his still growing body, remains to be seen, but if this is the only chink in his armor, it's a minor one, and it actually makes his production even more impressive when you consider that he might never have been fully healthy this season.

Heyward will enter 2010 as a 20 year old, not turning 21 until August. There are many who want to see him begin the season as Atlanta's starting right fielder, with just 52 games of experience above A ball on his resume. While it's possible, in fact likely, that Heyward could put up an outstanding Spring Training and force the Braves to make this hope a reality, it's more likely, given his age, experience, and the financial realities of baseball, that the Braves start him out at AAA Gwinnett like they did with Tommy Hanson, allowing him to dominate and hone his game, before calling him up June 1st, after he's avoided the possibility of reaching Super Two status down the line.

2. Concepcion Rodriguez B/T: R/R Born: 9/19/1986 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 170

After an impressive 2008 season spent mostly with Myrtle Beach that saw him hit .278 with a .806 OPS to go with 28 doubles, 14 home runs, and 10 stolen bases, Rodriguez looked poised to assert himself as a top prospect as a 22 year old with Mississippi in 2009. But, like Travis Jones and Brandon Hicks, he saw his power evaporate this season, mostly due to his home ballpark, and put up a total line with a .263 average, .651 OPS, 19 doubles, just 3 home runs, and 9 stolen bases. Like Jones and Hicks, he suffered from a slight drop in his number of doubles, but saw his number of home runs plummet. In 209 home plate appearances he was terrible, hitting just .229 with an awful .534 OPS, but looked like himself on the road, where in 225 plate appearances he hit .295 with a .753 OPS.

Rodriguez is a fine defender, blessed with the combination of enough speed and an above average enough arm to make him capable of playing all three outfield positions. He did so in 2008, playing 30 games in center field, 39 in left field, and 40 in right field, but he settled into right field for most of 2009, playing the majority of his games, 72, there.

With his wild splits, it's hard to judge Rodriguez's season. He's obviously not as bad as the total numbers, or the home numbers, would indicate, but they still show that he needs to work on keeping the ball down and hitting it in the gaps. While he does have a strong, athletic body, he's never going to be a big time home run hitter in the Majors, so this is certainly a lesson worth having him learn. The best place for him to do so is probably right in Mississippi's park, which has supplanted Myrtle Beach as the most unforgiving to hitters in the system, so look for Rodriguez to return to AA to start 2010, with a promotion to AAA likely if he's able to master his home park.

3. Luis Sumoza B/T: R/R Born: 7/15/1988 Ht: 6'0" Wt: 170

Sumoza is one of only a few players on the Talking Chop prospect lists who wasn't originally signed by Atlanta, having been acquired from the Red Sox in exchange for Mark Kotsay. It seemed like a great acquisition at the time, as Sumoza was having a fine year for short season Lowell (basically the equivalent of Danville), hitting .301 with a .915 OPS, including 15 doubles, 11 home runs, and 9 stolen bases in 51 games. But, playing this season mostly as a 20 year old, Sumoza wasn't able to repeat his success, putting up a .271 average and .681 OPS for Rome in 494 plate appearances, along with a very poor showing in 40 plate appearances for Myrtle Beach, hitting just .189 with a .466 OPS. He was able to club out 27 doubles for Rome this year, but he also proved weak at taking a walk, complining just a .316 on base percentage for the team. He also found stealing bases more difficult, swiping just 8 while being caught 11 times on the season.

While he's played a little bit of center field in his career, Sumoza has settled better into right field, where his speed fits better and he's able to make use of his above average arm, which allowed him to collect 13 outfield assists this season. But, he's also shown himself to be a bit of a butcher in the field, as evidence by his 11 errors this season. While his arm is certainly well suited for right field, his defensive short comings create huge offensive opportunities for the opponet, so it's likely that he'll shift over to left field as he moves up the ladder.

Of course, that move is predicated on Sumoza finding himself at the plate again. He'll enter next season as a 21 year old, so if he's forced to repeat with Rome he'll be a little too old to garner a lot of excitement as a prospect, but it also means he's still young enough to hope he turns things around. He has a strong, thick body capable of producing power, so if he can make better contact and take more walks, he could develop into another high risk/high reward outfield prospect.

4. Chris Shehan B/T: R/R Born: 5/5/1987 Ht: 6'0" Wt: 205

After being drafted in the 30th round in 2008, Shehan had a more than solid debut, spent mostly with Danville, where he hit .281 with a .776 OPS along with 12 doubles, 4 triples, 5 home runs, and 9 stolen bases in 283 plate appearances as a 21 year old. His full season debut was less successful however, as his numbers fell to a .253 average and .660 OPS with 24 doubles, just 3 home runs, and 9 stolen bases in 382 plate appearances. Oddly enough he was actually better at the higher level this season, posting a .261 average and .683 OPS along with 15 of his doubles in 144 plate appearances for Myrtle Beach, compared to a .248 average and .644 OPS in 238 plate appearances for Rome. While his season numbers certainly suffered as he lacked the home run power that he seemed capable of, what really hurt him was an inabilty to work walks, as he posted just a .302 on base percentage for the season.

Shehan has shown himself capable of covering all three outfield positions, and he actually played more games in center field this season, 41, than he did in left field, 26, or right field, 36. But, because he's a little thicker than the average center fielder, and a little slower, he profiles better at one of the corner spots. His arm is slightly above average, and he was able to rack up 8 outfield assists this season, but, like Sumoza, he was also befallen by a propensity to make errors, with a total of 14 this year. So while he is a solid enough outfielder, he isn't a superb one.

He will turn 23 a month into the 2010 season, so Shehan really needs to get things moving quickly if he hopes to keep himself from becoming an afterthought in the Braves system. He'll likely return to Myrtle Beach to start the year, and will need to get his walks up and his power back to assert himself into the Braves plans.

T5. Daniel Falcon B/T: R/R Born: 12/27/1988 Ht: 6'1" Wt: 220

After playing for the Braves team in his native Dominican Republic, where he complied a .275 average and .784 OPS along with 23 doubles, 15 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and 138 strikeouts in 545 plate appearances over three seasons, Feliz made his American debut for the Orlando Braves in the GCL with a .257 average and .680 OPS in 156 plate appearances. Again, the strikeouts plagued him, as he whiffed 42 times, good for nearly one a game.

He split his time pretty evenly between the corner outfield spots, playing 22 games in right field and 20 in left field, racking up 4 outfield assists and 2 errors on the season. But, defense isn't going to be what gets him to the Majors, or keeps him from there, it's his offense. Falcon will enter next season as a 21 year old, so it's time for him to get his career moving. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts and take more walks, his .288 on base percentage this season was just unacceptable, if he wants to move up the ladder.

T5. Anthony Feliz B/T: R/R Born: 10/7/1987 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 195

2009 was Feliz's second year playing for the Orlando Braves inthe GCL and he put up strkingly similar numbers to the previous one. In 148 plate appearances in 2008, he hit .278 with a .679 OPS, including 9 doubles, 2 home runs, and 6 stolen bases, and in 154 plate appearances in 2009, he hit .261 with a .704 OPS including 9 doubles, 2 home runs, and 4 stolen bases. His improvement in OPS stemmed from hitting two triples this season, compared to none last year, and a dramatic increase in walks, from just 1 in 2008 to 8 this year.

Feliz spent the vast majority of his time in right field this season, gaining 6 outfield assists and 4 errors in 41 games. Like Falcon, his defense is neither good enough to make him a Major Leauger, or bad enough to prevent him from becoming one; his offense is what needs work. Feliz will enter next season as a 22 year old and the minimal progression he showed this year compared to last, though his improvment in walks was very impessive, leave little indication that he's likely to rise very high in Atlanta's Minor League stystem.