The Dream Shake

Chris Bosh Is Miami's Most Irreplaceable Piece

2012-05-17T02:51:54Z

Nope, that isn't some headline I used to grab your attention. It's the real deal. And if you happened to be drawn in by it, then all the better. And no, this ain't about the Rockets.

Because Miami's playoff hopes suddenly hinge on their third-best player, the much-maligned, under-appreciated Chris Bosh and his injury.

Note that I said he's their most irreplaceable, not their best player. Look, LeBron James is their best player. He's anyone's best player. And Dwyane Wade is their second-best player. He's most teams' best player.

But here's the deal: if Wade goes down, I think LeBron and Bosh can win you a title. I really believe that. If LeBron goes down, obviously that's devastating. However, we already know you can win with Wade as your best player as long as you have a decent big (old Shaq in 2006; Bosh in 2012).

Essentially, Wade and LeBron can fill in for the other. Not entirely, but enough. But Udonis Haslem isn't what he used to be, and outside of Joel Anthony there isn't much post defense on the Heat side. So with LeBron being asked to guard David West, Danny Granger gets the old Battier on him. I love Shane Battier, but there's a huge difference between LeBron guarding you and Battier guarding you.

So the Heat need Bosh back badly. They can still get past Indiana. And maybe they squeak past Boston in 7, but I don't think they can get through both of those teams and the Western Conference Champions. So Bill Simmons may have to open up his asterisk/footnote book again and take this into account. But Simmons is an ass, so who cares?

How about you? Is Bosh that important to the Heat, or am I out of my mind?

The TDS 2012 NBA Mock Draft, 1.0

2012-05-16T00:18:22Z

Lean with me, mock with me. The puns will never die.

Anyway, I finally got around to throwing together a mock draft, and after contacting absolutely zero team sources or player representatives, here's what I came up with.

1. Charlotte — Anthony Davis, PF Kentucky

Good luck making a shot inside ten feet against Bismack BiUnibrow.

2. Washington — Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF Kentucky

They could go in a number of directions here, but Kidd-Gilchrist is the best player available. There's no harm in shuffling recent SF draftees Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton to make it work.

3. Cleveland — Brad Beal, SG Florida

A Kyrie Irving/Brad Beal backcourt is too dreamy to go big with this pick. Imagine if the Clippers could have acquired Chris Paul without losing Eric Gordon.

4. New Orleans — Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas

Andre Drummond is intriguing here, but I'm not sure how long New Orleans will want to wait on him to develop. Robinson can make an impact right away and isn't much of a drop-off anyway.

5. Sacramento — Andre Drummond, C UConn

In two years, Andre Drummond/DeMarcus Cousins will either be the most dominant front court in the league, or they'll both go missing.

6. Portland — Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina

I'm going to assume up front that the Blazers plan on offering big bucks to Goran Dragic. If they do manage to find their point guard in free agency, this frees them up to go big with both their picks. Barnes is a solid score-first small forward at worst, and a potential star at best. But he's got a lot of work to do to get there.

7. Golden State — John Henson, PF North Carolina

The most Golden State Warriors pick ever, right? Think Ekpe Udoh, Brandan Wright (via draft-day trade), Anthony Randolph and others. David Lee is solid, but I think they could give in to Henson's monster range and massive potential.

8. Toronto — Perry Jones III, F Baylor

The Raptors take the best player available, and he happens to fill a need at forward.

9. Detroit — Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State

The Pistons could use some more athleticism, but at the end of the day, Sullinger gives them a solid presence next to Greg Monroe. I doubt they'll pass on him if he's here, assuming Henson or Jones III are already off the board.

10. New Orleans — Tyler Zeller, C North Carolina

Suddenly, in Robinson and Zeller, the Hornets have a respectable young frontcourt that can eat minutes right away.

11. Portland — Terrence Jones, F Kentucky

What happens when you trade Gerald Wallace for a lottery pick? You use your other lottery pick to draft his pseudo-replacement as an aggressive, versatile wing.

12. Milwaukee — Meyers Leonard, C Illinois

This could be a reach, but with Milwaukee's backcourt seemingly set and with Ekpe Udoh as the biggest body on the roster, I think the Bucks could give in and go with the best legitimate center prospect on the board.

13. Phoenix — Damian Lillard, PG Weber State

I almost took Kendall Marshall here, but something tells me Phoenix values the three-point shot too much to take a chance on the offensively-challenged Marshall. Lillard can certainly stroke it from deep.

14. Houston — Jeremy Lamb, SG UConn

Is this what I would do, or is this what Daryl Morey would do? I'm not sure, but in this case, I'm leaning toward both.

At the end of the day, no matter how good or bad Austin Rivers could turn out to be, Lamb could turn out to be better. He has much more upside on the defensive end, and while he's not an aggressive scorer like Rivers, he can still find his own shot, plus he's much more athletic. It's a tough call, but despite my stance that Houston needs to take a chance on a high risk/high reward player, I can't let them pass on Lamb. There's no reason why he can't turn out to be just as good as or better than Rivers.

15. Philadelphia — Arnett Moultrie, PF/C Mississippi State

I think the Sixers are hoping Leonard falls to 15, but if he's gone, Moultrie is just as intriguing a prospect. He needs to work on his inside game, but the potential is certainly there.

16. Houston — Kendall Marshall, PG North Carolina

I think the lure of a starting point guard job will lead Goran Dragic out of Houston, and if that's the case, Marshall is a great get at sixteen. He's the best passer to enter the draft in the last few years, and while he rarely scores, I think his combination of size and skill could certainly yield to a Rajon Rondo-like improvement over time. He's not Rondo and he won't ever be Rondo — especially on the defensive end — but as a pure point guard and floor general, it's not a bad comparison. He'll be the perfect transition point guard to play behind Kyle Lowry, and he should eventually give Houston trade flexibility with Lowry should the opportunity arise.

I also wouldn't be shocked to see Morey neglect to draft any freshmen, by the way.

17. Dallas — Austin Rivers, SG Duke

Looks like replacing Jason Terry won't be difficult.

18. Minnesota — Terrence Ross, SG Washington

Ross gives the T-Wolves the sweet-shooting two-guard they've been missing. Sorry, Wayne Ellington.

19. Orlando — Marquis Teague, PG Kentucky

The Magic may be losing Dwight Howard soon, but that doesn't change the fact that they need more playmakers elsewhere. Teague can get his own shot and score in bunches — the question is whether or not he can become a good enough passer to eventually take the starting point guard job. To no surprise, his brother Jeff faced the same questions.

20. Denver — Quincy Miller, SF Baylor

Denver doesn't have many holes, so taking a chance on Miller is certainly worth the gamble. Lest we forget, before he got injured, Draft Express once pegged Miller as the number one overall pick over Anthony Davis a year ago.

21. Boston — Moe Harkless, SF St. John's

Harkless won't replace Paul Pierce, but Boston needs more wing scoring and Harkless is the best of that sort on the board.

22. Boston — Royce White, F Iowa State

Hey, why not? You don't think he could thrive under Doc Rivers and a bunch of old guys to learn from early on? The Celtics are one of few teams who could afford to shuffle their offense to play to White's many, many strengths.

23. Atlanta — Tony Wroten Jr., PG Washington

Jeff Teague could use either a backup or some more competition to push him, and Wroten Jr. could excel in either role. He just needs to discover his jumper.

24. Cleveland — Fab Melo, C Syracuse

Great value for a young team who could use another big. Melo will need to sort all his other stuff out.

25. Memphis — Dion Waiters, SG Syracuse

They've tried to trade OJ Mayo like, fifty-seven times. I think they're in the market for a different shooting guard.

26. Indiana — Tyshawn Taylor, PG Kansas

If Tyshawn ever learns to take care of the ball, he could become a great playmaker in Indiana's almost too unselfish offense.

27. Miami — Doron Lamb, SG Kentucky

A "veteran" scorer with a solid foundation. Sounds like exactly the type of player a team in Miami's situation would take.

28. Oklahoma City — Draymond Green, F Michigan State

All the pieces are in place, so why not draft someone who can mesh with them in any number of ways, without necessarily getting in the way? Makes sense to me.

29. Chicago — John Jenkins, SG Vanderbilt

Maybe the sweet-shooting Jenkins can finally solve their shooting guard woes.

30. Golden State — Evan Fournier, SF France

Fournier is a good scoring prospect, and the Warriors need some help at small forward. Two questions about Fournier: Will he come over this year, and will he ever develop an outside shot?

Stuck in the Middle With You - AKA The Failapse

2012-05-15T08:52:24Z

This story could have been written at any time after the Rockets imploded their way out of a possible 5th seed into their customary 14th pick. I chose now because the pain has faded a bit. Eventually I want to cover not only theRockets fade down the stretch, but also move on to some topics regarding team composition, future direction, and long-standing gripes.

Just Missing The Playoffs, Again - The Rockets were in the catbird seat with 8 games left. They'd just completed a very impressive road trip that saw wins in Chicago and Los Angeles. They'd recently beaten the Thunder at home. (In fact the Rockets went 2-2 versus the Thunder, one of the better showings in the NBA.) Everything looked promising. Maybe we'd see a first round exit, but there are few teams I didn't think the Rockets would take to 6 games, and who knows, maybe they'd get lucky. Maybe the Rockets would get Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin playing at full strength and make a series of it.

Going .500 would have done it, for the 8th seed, anyway. Of course that didn't happen. The Rockets dropped 7 of 8, many in heartbreaking, and some in humiliating, fashion. Goodbye playoffs, hello grist for the mill, and well-earned grist at that.

Why did it happen? It's complicated, but I think the answer doesn't have anything to do with heart, or grit, or chutzpah or anything like that. The Rockets wore out, and they wore out for several reasons.

Here's my breakdown. After that clicky little jump.

The Rockets are a high effort team. They must move on offense to score, with only one ISO-capable player (Luis Scola). They must work hard on defense. This is an effective, attractive, but tiring, way to play basketball.

I often felt the that the Rockets needed to play near the maximum of their capacity all the time to achieve good results. That's fine, you want to see a team that fights hard, and I think the Rockets rarely gave less than maximum effort.

But fighting that hard every game can wear a team out in a normal year. In a (hopefully unique) compressed year like this one, the effects are amplified. To the Rockets credit, they didn't fade until the very end, and without the injuries, I think they wouldn't have faded at all.

A high effort team that lost its "stars". This sort of exhaustion is one reason why stars are valuable. Its not because everyone says they're great, because some "stars" actually aren't at all great. (Hello Rudy Gay!) Its not because they were a high pick in the draft, though that's where they're most often found. It is not even because they're "closers", whatever that really means, because evidence is sort of sketchy regarding "closing". It's not even because they can score 40 plus sometimes, though that's nice.

I think it's because star players can carry a high scoring, and adequate defensive, load without wearing down over a season and the playoffs. The rest of the team doesn't have to play at playoff intensity at all times, because the star player can throw in 25-30pts without playing an atypical game. Which leads me to some comments on our favorite ~~villian~~ Ersatz Star.

Say what you will about Kevin Martin, the Rocket really missed his contributions on the scoreboard. Despite rule changes Martin was still capable of scoring about 20-24 a night, as he showed shortly before he got hurt (you know, the period between cancelled trade pouting and injury).

We can debate if this season or last is his real level or not, but in either case, I think he can still be an effective scorer, and not easily replaced at the (very) thin SG position.

It also struck me that Martin was being punished by the officials for his method of drawing fouls in previous years.*

Anyhow, even with his injury and off year, Martin still lead the Rockets in scoring. That's right, even with a year that had people calling for his head, his blood, his spleen, his very soul, on a platter, Kevin Martin was the Rockets scoring leader. Lee didn't pass him when given the job.

I'm not saying Martin is your star, he doesn't fulfill the "adequate defense" part, but he fakes the scoring part pretty well. He's a guy who can score 20-25pts consistently. As we learned this year, those guys aren't plentiful, it takes more than opportunity to do it. If Courtney Lee scores 20, its a fairly big deal, when Martin scored 24 last year it was an average night.

(Courtney Lee struck me as almost a starter - he seemed like a guy who might win a 6th man award one year. Why? Because you couldn't count on his offense, and when he started playing big minutes, he defense started to slip noticeably.)

A high effort team desperately needs a reliable scorer to take some of the pressure off it. Martin wasn't around to do it.

Injuries had eroded the Rockets depth. When a team plays a high-effort style it relies on its bench depth. To end the season, the bench was very short, to the point of non-existence.

The reason for the Rockets success often boiled down to a bench that was essentially as good as the starting lineup. Earlier in the season, the bench bailed us out in many games. Games where the bench played poorly often amounted to losses.

In the final weeks, with so many players down, or at reduced strength, the Rockets bench was essentially some LA D-Fenders, plus Earl Boykins. And McHale wasn't going to play any of them that much. I think he needed to, but he wouldn't.

Kevin McHale seemed like a jockey who went to the whip too early, and too often. When he needed the team to respond down the stretch, their legs were cooked. Maybe he'll learn from it. Maybe he'll realize that the 1986 Celtics really were exceptional in every way. Maybe he'll just keep talking about coal mining. We'll see.

Trades were a mixed bag. Jordan Hill is getting significant minutes for LA in the playoffs. It seems fair to say he would have been more handy to us than a Derek Fisher (ugh) buyout and a putative Dallas draft pick we may never see, down the stretch. To say Hill was never going to be a star is not at all the same as saying he's not a quality rotation big man.

We did turn Hasheem Thabeet and poor old Jonny ~~Rae~~ Flynn into Marcus Camby, which was a a fantastic deal for us. Until he got hurt, twice, Camby was a revelation, and I think, an inspiration to some younger guys. I hope he's back next season. He's still one of the better defensive big men and rebounders in the NBA. I'd forgotten what "the rebounding gene" looked like in a center. Thanks for reminding me, Marcus.

We turned Terrence Williams into a real "Best Player on a Bad Team" candidate and got squat. Anyone who thought his potential was in some way valuable, consider that that Rockets must have gotten no, nada, zero, offers for him. Sacramento signed him on a 10 day contract, and that, perhaps, finally woke him up. And awakened, I saw him play well for Sacramento at times. I think for eight minutes a night he could have helped us more than releasing him did. For whatever reason though, he was poison in Houston. Now he's gone and this is likely the last I'll write about him outside of game recaps or game threads.

One of the problems with a total team concept is that you need a total team. LAL can afford to have 5 clowns on the bench against most teams because its starters are so strong. The Rockets can afford no clowns within their top 11. Lose two starters (and their 31 points and 9ast a game) and the whole thing starts slewing off the rails.

You may think Dragic is better than Lowry (I don't think so but its a fair question) and you probably think Martin is Evil Incarnate (he's not), but they're NBA starter quality players. They're hard to do without. I can't think of an NBA team that lost its starting backcourt for so much time and made the playoffs.

Finally, how hard is it to lose your star PG? Ask Chicago. The Bulls got knocked out by a Philly team who matched the Rockets swoon for swoon down the stretch. But the 76ers swooned without severe injuries, or any other major visible problem. Philly still limped into the playoffs, but no one expected more than 5 games against Chicago. Rose went down. Now they're tied with Boston in the 2nd round.

The old old refrain, Injuries matter. Once again they mattered too much to the Rockets. But see below for more.

NOTE - This content below was added after the initial piece went up. TDS commenters made me realize that I had laid out some arguments, but didn't draw what I think are the conclusions that follow. Or if I did make the points, I didn't make them forcefully. So again, what follows is added after the fact, but I hope it contributes to the discussion.

So, injuries do matter, and I think the Rockets make the playoffs without their starting frontcourt going down. That said, let's put this year's injuries into perspective.

In years past losing Yao and McGrady basically meant the Rockets could not contend for a title. That's the level of pain Chicago is suffering right now, losing a precious year in which to contend. (The LA window for contention has been open a freakishly long time because Kobe Bryant has been effective for a freakishly long time. The same goes for Duncan in San Antonio. That is by no means to be assumed. Just look at Yao and TMac. I suspect Derek Rose's window of greatness will be about 1/2 that of Bryant's, for example.)

Injuries this year meant the Rockets wouldn't make it into the playoffs as an 6th-8th seed. That's a vast gulf from past seasons. The Rockets, even with Yao and McGrady missing time, generally won 50 or so games and made the playoffs easily. They won (a) playoff series without only one star, and nearly beat the eventual champions without both stars. We cannot say the same for this years vintage.

This speaks to a problem with team construction.

If your team cannot afford to lose key players for any length of time, in order to simply make the playoffs, your team is not where it should be.

(We can discuss (once again) how we think the Rockets can get to where they should be later.)

If your team needs to play at maximum effort all the time to win games, your team isn't where it should be. Its hard to recall easy wins for the Rockets this season. I can recall some big leads but very few easy victories. Maximum effort leads to exhaustion down the stretch. We've seen this three years running, basically. I think we have enough evidence.

Some people will call this a front office failure. I don't beleive it is, and I don't say that without due consideration, but it is a topic for another post.

I think the front office has managed to spin a team of Best Supporting Actor nominees from moonbeams and spider webs. If there was a FA star out there with some sense, he'd realize the supporting cast for a championship run was already assembled, waiting for him to join them and stride into history. The Rockets are a tough, talented and respectable team. They play very attractive basketball. At this point, however, we have enough evidence now to conclude that won't put us over the top, or even in the playoffs without perfect injury luck, or significant player growth.

Next we'll tackle what we have, and what is to be done.

* The refs seemed to single Martin, Lowry, and some other Rockets out for no calls whatsoever on offense. They didn't receive even quite standard, time-honored, NBA foul calls. Why the officials chose to punish the very players they themselves had rewarded the year before, is beyond me. Its like fining smokers now because they used to smoke in bars, before the laws were changed.

The Rockets lack of FTs was typically blamed on them "being a jump shooting team", but I think its a chicken/egg problem. If you never get a call on a drive, you have to shoot jumpers. Being mugged in the lane, and turning the ball over with no whistle, is a lower percentage chance than a jumper.

That said, I think very few Rockets tried to finish scoring through contact. Dragic was the best at it. Most other Rockets didn't finish strong at the rim, and that also cost them calls. I'll single out Patterson for complaint. Too many times he attempted a layup or a hook when a dunk attempt was the correct play. I hope that he sorts himself out next year.

In general I thought the officiating was horrific throughout the league this year. The brutal schedule hurt the zebras too, I guess. I truly hope they're better next year, because they were almost Olympic level bad this season.

Houston Rockets Re-Brand

2012-05-14T06:13:55Z

Hi all,

I'm not sure if some of you are familiar with my blog, but it's basically a jersey design blog for NBA teams. My first was a new jersey for the Rockets but this time around I've gone for the complete brand overhaul, returning to the ketchup and Mustard.

I've placed the designs below so hopefully you guys get a kick out of them. Let me know what you think either here, or Facebook, or the blog itself.

Thanks for your time.

via projectthirtyfour.blog.com

The Dream Shake Writer Roundtable 3 on 5

2012-05-11T13:14:28Z

Here we go folks, we’re back with our weekly installment of the writer’s roundtable. Today we address a wide variety of questions and Patrick, AK, and I give you a wide variety of answers. This week we have to lend our thanks to Dupax, Twinkilling0303, VBG, datruth1, and ak2themax for questions. Yes, I recognize AK is both a writer and had a submission but you can mock him relentlessly here for hogging the spotlight. We’ll talk to you about the draft, free agency, Kevin Martin, JaVale McGee, and the amnesty clause. I hope you guys enjoy this and we love answering your questions. We received a lot of great questions and hope to continue this momentum. You all ask wonderful questions and we enjoy taking them so make sure you keep them coming.

You can submit your questions via e-mail at tdsmailbag@gmail.com or post your questions directly to the thread here. You don’t need to be a registered TDS user to submit questions, either! All questions are saved for use either today or in a later edition. We’re happy to take multiple questions from the same user but we do try to get a different user for each question. Don’t worry, that just means you’ll get more exposure next week if you ask a lot of great questions.

1. Presuming we still landed the 14th and 16th pick in the 2012 draft, who among the candidates would bring the biggest asset to the team? - Dupax

BD34: I really feel like the biggest upside players available with the 14th and 16th Pick comes down to three guys. Terrence Ross, Quincy Miller, and Fab Melo. I like Ross for the swiss army knife effect I see after watching his tape. He brings scoring, good size at the shooting guard, and gives us some of what we lost in Battier’s departure. I think he makes Martin expendable, which is just an added bonus. I like Miller because I feel that although his lift is awful on his jumper, I see a good amount of athleticism and I’ll take a flyer on that injury of his. Melo is a major source of contention on the site lately but I’m happy to go ahead and say take him. He’s a legit 7 footer, came from a great program at Syracuse and yes, has his head screwed on a bit loose but why else would we have gotten McHale if not for this specific case? A high upside young big man who needs offensive refinement and a little bit of discipline? Sounds like the best case scenario for us.

ak2themax: I still like Austin Rivers more than the average person, and he could be a great backup plan in case Dragic gets signed to another squad. He’s more of a Bobby Jackson "point guard" in that he’s looking to score first. But in the NBA, especially as a young guy you have to play with the team and I think he could become a decent distributor.
Fab Melo is another guy I’m interested in. Like BD said, he’s a 7-footer. That should be enough to interest you. And he doesn’t look like he’s going to fall over while running, which was always a legitimate fear with Hasheem Thabeet. Is he a project? Yes. Will some team possibly lose their minds and trade for him even if he doesn’t pan out? Yes. So what’s the harm?
And only because I said I thought the Rockets would take a look at him, Draymond Green fits the mold of a Rockets draft pick. Four years in college, mature, great citizen, and undersized power forward checks off all the boxes for Morey. He could play the 3 for the team if he loses some weight, and he can distribute. I think he could be a solid pickup, though he’ll probably be a second-rounder, which the Rockets do not possess.

PatrickHarrel: Personally, I would be looking at a few players if I were the Rockets: Tyler Zeller, Austin Rivers, and Arnett Moultrie. Some (justifiably) look at upside as a huge need for the Rockets, but Zeller seems to be the kind of player that could start in the middle for the next decade or so. If he lasts to the Rockets at 14, I’d imagine the Rockets would have a hard time passing him up.
Rivers has been discussed extensively on TDS, and I agree with the sentiment that he has "it." Some players, you just don’t see the drive and passion, but you can see them clearly in Rivers. He’s a fluid ball-handler who could fit in the Rockets’ offense as another threat to penetrate the lane. Obviously, if he were the complete package he would be going earlier than 14 or 16, but he’d be a pretty good value if he were to fall.
Arnett Moultrie is another big man but hasn’t been on as many people’s radars as Zeller. He’s long at 6’11" and pairs the length with solid leaping ability, making him a serious alley-oop threat. He’s certainly not going to be featured offensive player because of a lack of back-to-basket skills, but as a rebounder and an off-ball cutter, you could do a lot worse. He’s much more of a gutsy pick than Zeller (and certainly an inferior prospect to Zeller), but if he lasts to 16 I could see the Rockets picking him up.

2. Should the team pursue a free agent small forward this offseason even if it means stunting Chandler Parson’s growth? - Twinkilling0303

BD34: I think so. You know, at the end of the day, Chandler Parsons is nice but I don’t see him as the guy I want on my starting lineup when this team gets ready to be serious. I’m a fan of the idea of trying to overload an offer to the guy we drafted and traded a few years ago, Nicolas Batum. Gerald Wallace will most likely opt in at 9.5 million this coming season because he’s not likely to fetch equal or greater value on the free agent market (Unless Brooklyn is so toxic as to warrant he bolts). I think Batum is an odd-man out in Portland and Portland is often cited as a capable trade partner for their pick or their market for a point guard, which we can take care of. I don’t know if Parsons has a great deal of growth left that Batum starting could interrupt. Ultimately I think Batum’s upside and current side is already much higher than Parsons and Parsons had four years at Florida, meaning he’s already pretty much what he’s going to be.

ak2themax: This isn’t a tough one, if only because there are no decent free agent small forwards on the market. Seriously, Gerald Wallace is the best one, and he’s got a player option of $9.5 million, so he might not even be available. Or, how do you feel about Grant Hill, because he might be your best bet.
So, to make a long story short, Chandler Parsons should be the small forward of the immediate future, if only because he is the best 3 available to the Rockets. Parsons can lead to better things for the team just by developing himself into an even more valuable trade asset.

PatrickHarrel: This is a toughie for me. I LOVE Chandler Parsons’ game (which will make the inevitable sophomore slump all the more unbearable), but I think the Rockets have to be in the position where they should look to stockpile as much talent as possible, regardless of position. Whether that is Gerald Wallace, Nic Batum, Jeff Green, Ersan Ilyasova (watch out for that name), or Roy Hibbert, the Rockets have to push to increase their level of talent.
If you have a pair of small forwards playing at a high level, you can find a spot for them. Parsons can guard 2’s and 3’s well and can slide to the 4 in a pinch, and the same applies for a number of the other free agents. At times, the Rockets demanded way too much out of Parsons, asking him to guard the opponent’s best player while playing upwards of 40 minutes per game for stretches, and less pressure could do Parsons well.

3. What is Kevin Martin’s future with the Rockets and what does he have left to offer? - VBG

BD34: Everyone knows I’m not a big Kevin Martin fan. He is extremely one dimensional and, granted, he operates in that one dimension pretty well but if I’m the Rockets moving forward, I want two way players. Martin is only valuable if you have a franchise player on your roster to give him a break. We don’t have that, we don’t have utility for Kevin at that point. I think the lingering shoulder injury and the lack of whistles will diminish his value. He’s almost 30 years old but he does wonders for an offense’s movement. I guess the question is what is the market for a guy whose only contribution is scoring and who has a lingering injury and failure to contribute in other ways? I think you could maybe package him with some of our cap space to eat a bad contract and get a decent draft pick. I feel like Portland or Minnesota would at least listen to the pitch, even if none of them really have a nasty contract to ship out.

ak2themax: Everyone knows that I’m a big Kevin Martin fan. When you need points, he’s your guy. Frustration set in early in the season when referees stopped blowing their whistles when he went into his pump fakes. However, he’s still the best shooter on the team. He’s ability to come off screens and create off-the-ball movement helps free up other players too. Screen and rolls were a big part of the Adelman offense, and it’s not as if McHale’s version doesn’t include them at all. With a real 7-footer (or two) behind him, Martin’s defense doesn’t become such a liability. Finally, how can a team suffer from having a guy who can go off for 25 points every night?

PatrickHarrel: Sometimes you have to understand your role and embrace it. I’m a Kevin Martin apologist. I like to point out that Martin had his best stretch of the season before his shoulder injury which led to his horrible slump. I honestly do expect Kevin Martin to rebound with a solid season next year, and score 20-25 points per game with strong efficiency numbers like he has done the last five years.
However, I do doubt that he will do for a full year in a Rockets’ uniform. I’m not a tremendously connected man, but the one person I am acquainted with in the Rockets organization indicated to me that they (as expected) view Courtney Lee as the future at the position. If an opportunity presents itself to sign a top free agent, I would expect the Rockets to ship Martin out without a second thought. On the other hand, from what I can gather, the Rockets would prefer to have Martin re-establish his value before they put him on the trading block.
In short, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Martin in the starting lineup on Opening Night, but I’d be careful before buying a Martin jersey.

4. What do you feel about offering a loaded contract to JaVale McGee this offseason? - datruth1

BD34: JaVale’s maximum contract value is 9 million dollars per year under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. DeAndre Jordan is receiving a 4 year 43 million dollar deal right now. McGee gives you twice as many points, 3 more boards, and 1 more block per game than Jordan gives you. You could potentially snatch McGee at 7 million dollars less (overall) than Jordan earns. There is always a market for big men, especially athletically gifted ones.
I’m sure the Rockets wouldn’t mind having a guy who gives you production and youth like McGee and I wholeheartedly believe his ability to be a moron is overrated by fans who don’t know the situation he was in here in DC. Everyone likes to mock and no one likes to learn. McGee was on a bad team with no direction and was increasingly being pushed away by the front office. He knew the Wizards didn’t want him and he was more interested in padding stats at that point because he didn’t agree with what the front office was doing overall. The Rockets have a great deal more discipline than DC has seen (Keep in mind, the Wizards RECENTLY finished getting rid of their big 3 and is culling the roster like Portland had to a few years ago, passing harsh judgment and "perennial cellar dweller" doesn’t really apply to a 5 year rebuild plan) and it’s smart to start off on the right foot with a nice offer. I say offer him 8 or 9 million a year, we’ve got all this salary cap space, use it. Especially if we wind up near the 20 million mark or so.

ak2themax: No thank you. McGee is a nice athletic big, but I don’t see him getting much better. Where he is right now is where he’ll be in five years. And athleticism fades with age and injuries. Seriously, can you see McGee becoming a back-to-the-basket player? Or someone who can anchor the defense on a contender?
I also just can’t see Les and Morey going for another head case. I think they got their fill with the #wordaapp star last season, and they will be hesitant to offer McGee a contract, much less one that ties them to the future of such a volatile individual.

PatrickHarrel: This is a no for me. Paying McGee the maximum would be a huge overpay on the part of the front office and far too desperate for my taste. Obviously, Daryl Morey has to be taking chances at this point, but giving McGee a starting salary of roughly $13 million would be a gross overpay and one that could hamstring the Rockets for years.
After fighting for years to get out from under the McGrady-Yao contracts, why sacrifice the flexibility the Rockets have built buy paying a guy to be your best player when he’s nowhere near that?
At this point, Javale McGee essentially is what he is. He’s still young, but after four years in the league, we know his strengths and weaknesses. He’s an extraordinary shot-blocker with outrageous athleticism for his size, he runs the floor like a deer, and can throw in some short range jumpers. At the same time, he’s not a back-to-basket threat, shows next to no basketball IQ, and makes Samuel Dalembert look disciplined with his goaltends.
He’s an immensely talented player who is also deeply flawed. He’s not a max player, and not even close in my book.

5. Do the Rockets use the amnesty this summer? If so, on whom? - ak2themax

BD34: Do I want them to? Yes, very yes. Do I think they will? No. I think the Rockets need to shop Scola aggressively this summer and see what they can get for him. If they can’t frame a trade package around him, he has to go. He’s reliable but we’re logjamming that position and we need to go young and rebuild this thing. Scola’s contract only gets uglier from here on out and he isn’t going to be younger. Yes, I know all the praise, his game isn’t athletic, not as damaging on his body, he’s savvy, etc... but this season showed he’s relying too much on his smarts and it’s to the detriment of his game because he’s starting to overthink. He gets gassed at the end of games, and I think our only options are to ship him to a team that could use a great back up PF or an adequate starting PF. We should have cashed in on Luis before this season but that’s an entirely different criticism I have of this organization. So, if the Rockets are interested in rebuilding and solving this problem they need to try to trade Scola and if not, amnesty him.

ak2themax: What an amazing question. Seriously, what amazing human being came up with this one? Oh, that would be me. Okay, let’s get serious.
I don’t think they will use the amnesty. They should use it on Scola or Martin, if only to free up more money. At this point, those guys are superfluous if the team continues to draft power forwards to replace Scola and intend to re-sign Courtney Lee. I know I said I like Kevin Martin and that I think he can continue to contribute. That’s still true. But if the team wants to make a run at a free agent or re-sign Dragic and Lee, they probably have to dump one of these contracts. Or, if the Rockets decide to go all-in and pull the trigger on a Dwight Howard trade (assuming Orlando wants in), then either or both of those guys will probably be vital parts of that trade. But if those options are unavailable to the Rockets, letting go of one of them would signal the beginning of the end of the "win and reload" phase.

PatrickHarrel: The Rockets are a special case. Most teams have a few long term contracts that could go badly in the next year or two, and for them it makes sense to "save" their amnesty provision. The Knicks would be a perfect example of this. Because they used their amnesty on Chauncey Billups (an expiring contract) in order to acquire Tyson Chandler, the Knicks now could be in serious trouble if Amar’e continues to drop off with the 3 years and over $60 million remaining on the deal.
The Rockets, on the other hand, don’t really have any long term deals to worry about if they use the amnesty. Scola has two more guaranteed years, and Martin has just one. By that line of thinking, there is little reason not to use it. Nonetheless, the better question is why would they use it? Though Scola may not be worth $8 million per season, the Rockets don’t exactly have a great line of succession behind him. Patrick Patterson struggled mightily last year, and Donatas Motiejunas has yet to step foot on the NBA hardwood.
The question of why extends to Kevin Martin’s case. Martin is an expiring contract, and has been the team’s leading scorer over the last two seasons. Remember that the Marcus Camby trade would not have been possible without the Jonny Flynn and Hasheem Thabeet expiring deals before you dismiss the importance of that. I guess the Rockets could use the amnesty if a pair of superior free agents want to come to Houston, but money is not the Rockets’ problem right now.

The NBA Draft Lottery and the Houston Rockets

2012-05-10T17:12:45Z

Lately I’ve seen a lot of commentary on the Houston Chronicle and some posts here on The Dream Shake relating to the NBA’s draft lottery system. The common theme I have noticed is the sentiment that the Rockets are being punished by such a system. "The general lottery system punishes teams that are well managed and rewards teams that are awful!" is the rallying cry of this debate. I have spent a lot of time turning this issue over in my mind. Does the NBA Draft Lottery system actually reward poor teams? Does the draft lottery team punish well-managed teams? What is the purpose of the NBA Lottery generally? There are arguments to be made for a change in the format of the lottery. Some advocate a single lot system where every team gets just one chance at the top pick. Some advocate a playoff series for teams that failed to make the NBA title hunt to determine seeding. Some have wondered why we can’t just go in reverse order seeding. All of these arguments have their pros and cons of varying weight. After the jump join me as I look at the NBA Draft Lottery system, its purpose, and I deliver on a promise I made to a commenter here on TDS.

In any discussion of a draft system we have to look at the sport it regulates. The NFL has parity across the board and a limited season at 16 games. The NFL’s schedule and quality of competition warrants a reverse order draft because every team has a chance to win a title (even if the same teams find themselves at the Super Bowl, teams like the Lions and 49ers can break through and actually challenge). The NHL has a great amount of turnover with several teams able to challenge for the Stanley Cup in any given season. The NHL, interestingly, employs a weighted draft system like the NBA. The difference between the NHL and the NBA is that in the NHL every team can only move up 4 spots at best and can only move back one spot based on their system. The NBA employs an 82 game season (Same as the NHL) without a great deal of parity. Over the course of 82 games any number of injuries, coach decisions, and trades can swing the fortune of the entire season. The same can be said for most any sport. In the NBA, however, eyebrows are raised over tanking given the NBA’s history (Calling in to question the Olajuwon draft and this year’s Golden State Warriors shutting down players) there has to be some safeguard against teams that deliberately lose for a chance to draft a difference maker. This brings us to our next major issue. What is the lottery system in place to protect against?

The system protects against tanking, plain and simple. The draft lottery is in place to discourage teams from intentionally losing games because there is no guarantee of the first pick in the NBA draft. Tanking is a hot topic on this blog and the constant reminder thrown out there is that, even with the worst record in the NBA, the number one pick is not guaranteed. Thankfully, we’re not discussing tank versus trading here today, we’re talking lottery. In the history of the NBA lottery, the number one pick has only ever been awarded to the NBA’s worst team three times (1988 Los Angeles Clippers, 1990 New Jersey Nets, and the 2004 Orlando Magic). It would seem that the draft lottery is a wonderful deterrent against tanking. Any team that could be seen as deliberately throwing games "the best" has only been rewarded three times. There is a great deal of diversity in who has won the lottery as far as "worst team" fluctuating between the 5^th and the 3^rd worst most commonly with variety sprinkled in as low as the 11^th worst (1993 Orlando Magic) and the 9^th worst record (2008 Chicago Bulls) winning the lottery. From the looks of the lottery system the NBA really only consistently "rewards" the worst team in the NBA if that team can be wildly erratic in how poor they really are. Yes, poorer teams tend to draft higher, but isn’t that the point of the draft? The draft is intended to inject young players with promise into the worst teams in order to increase the level of competition. It’s the Robin Hood method. Teams that are more stable don’t need as much help as teams that are extremely bad and as a team’s quality improves they will be further removed from franchise players to complimentary players, theoretically at least. Under this theory we have to address the next argument made by angry Rockets fans. "Why does the NBA consistently reward bad teams and punish teams like the Rockets?"

The short answer, it actually doesn’t. The longer answer requires we build on the understanding we came to above (Remember, we’re talking theoretical and intention, not actual yield through mismanagement). The theoretical premise of the draft in the NBA that states the worst teams need the most help, or access to the most help, then if you run your team properly, you will move higher in the draft. The NBA Draft lottery is intended to reward teams for building through the draft. When the NBA concocted the system they had to purge the reward to tank from the system, which they effectively did looking at empirical results of the lottery. Next, the NBA had to address the issue of parity and talent to keep the league competitive and entertaining. In order to do this the NBA had to confront the fact that quality NBA teams are built around stars. Once stars are established a supporting crew tends to perform better. If you look at the draft, stars tend to be obtained higher in the draft and role players acquired later. Team building is theoretically echoed in the draft lottery system and it makes sense. The Spurs need a lot less help than the Charlotte Bobcats. The Bobcats lack a star and they are in position in this NBA Draft lottery to find one. The Spurs just need to bring in young players in support roles and they’re in position to find one. On paper, the system works to reward the NBA’s preferred model of building a franchise, not to reward bad teams for being bad. We now have to determine whether or not the system punishes the Houston Rockets or teams in similar situations?

I don’t think it does. The Houston Rockets are uniquely situated, so when you say, "teams like the Houston Rockets" it only applies to the Houston Rockets. What does that mean for the NBA Lottery? It means it’s not broken at all. It means that the Houston Rockets are building contrary to how the system is set up. There is much to be said for "thinking outside of the box" but unfortunately superstars tend to hang out inside that box. The Rockets are really the only team that’s stuck drafting where they are that doesn’t want to rebuild through the draft. The Wolves drafted 2^nd last year and early in the season everyone was expecting to see them challenge for the playoffs (And they got their top 5 lotto point guard to come over as well). The Rockets are not willing to jettison their roster for picks or start the overhaul the way the Jazz did (Last year’s 3^rd from New Jersey and their own 12^th overall). The Phoenix Suns are the only team remotely near the Houston Rockets in their team makes up and situation (Last year’s 13^th pick) but they’re looking more and more likely to lose their franchise point guard after having lost their franchise power forward. The Suns also had a notorious run of selling off first round picks that turned in to Luol Deng and Rajon Rondo that separates them from the Rockets. The draft can be a crapshoot but the Rockets have selected safely the last few years with their picks. Tom has pointed out that this tactic needs to change if the Rockets want to see any form of dividend. Ultimately, I don’t believe the draft punishes the well managed teams. I think the draft punishes indecisive teams. I want you to ask yourself one question, very sincerely in this debate; Would you be complaining about the draft lottery if you were a Bobcats or Warriors fan? I sincerely think that the issue is jealousy. The Rockets are mired in mediocrity because they are unwilling to cooperate with the system they are a part of.

Rockets fans are clamoring for a systemic change because their team refuses to cooperate or believes it can succeed contrary to common practice. This is where I owe thanks to ncissin for getting me to think about this. If you’re unfamiliar with Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs it’s a schematic for human psychology and sociology. The Hierarchy explains what needs humans seek out and helps explain how we prioritize something. Our needs are organized in a pyramid and at the bottom are the foundations, sleep, food, shelter, etc… Next up we seek safety, next we seek relationships, then esteem and respect from others, then we seek to perfect ourselves (morality).

via dinamehta.com

What’s this mean for basketball, I didn’t come to TDS to read sociology, BD34. No you didn’t, but the hierarchy, I feel, can be adapted for the NBA to explain the Rockets quagmire. NBA teams have their own hierarchy to fulfill. At the base of this pyramid, they need a franchise player or picks 1-10. Without that, the NBA team cannot move forward, its most basic needs are unfulfilled. The Rockets have managed to cob-job together this bottom layer with role players but the foundation is weak and crumbling, as evidenced by the team’s ability to come just close enough to the post season to get its fans riled up but ultimately crashing into the 14^th pick. The next tier on the hierarchy speaks to our safety. This tier is where role players come in when building a team. Role players should build on top of what that franchise player can do and they’re nearly as critical as the right foundation. In this tier I would include picks 11-20 in the NBA draft. The Rockets have this tier on lock down. The next tier we have is that of relationships. For an NBA team we’re looking at defensive and offensive scheme. This is also your coach’s tier. If the talent is in place the coach will orchestrate everything properly. With a fantastic coach but no talent foundation beneath him he will underperform or see diminishing returns. The Rockets have landed some high quality coaches (Regardless of what you think of McHale he’s a great big man coach and needs more than one season before he has to answer to impatient fans). If we move higher to esteem the NBA equivalent we find are specialists. Bringing in a player solely for his three point shot (Steve Novak), his post defense (Chuck Hayes), or his passing (Ish Smith) is a luxury for teams and not something you should be considering only when you have a quality talent base and a coaching scheme beneath you. You tend to find specialists in the 2^nd round of the NBA draft (The late first can still find some role players or some specialists, it’s a grab bag!). The last tier, self-actualization, is overseas commodities and cap space. You may be wondering why cap space isn’t lower and more important but I propose to you, if you fulfill all the needs below this tier how necessary is cap space? If you have a franchise player, role players, a proper coach and scheme, and the right role players in place, how necessary is cap space? Your team is set, you don’t need to tweak it that much, and your team is ready to go. Further, overseas players are here because they are luxuries to hold draft rights in. You don’t need them, you could call for them, or you could just ship their rights out. Ultimately, it’s a throwaway, not something you need. What does this all mean for Houston?

I think through this schematic we can see why no major trade has materialized outside of involvement in a three-way trade. Houston has been peddling cap space and role players for a franchise player. We’re trying to supply the most unnecessary of luxuries and only the secondary need for a foundational piece. Teams don’t tend to be swayed by these proposals. The trades that we have seen materialize have been foundation players for foundation players (Chris Paul trade), foundation picks (Deron Williams trade), or an overabundance of players that straddle that line between the first and second tier (Carmelo Anthony trade). The NBA placed the brakes on the original three team trade because of a recognition that their team was going to get back nothing it could build on or with out of the proposed deal. Demps took the deal because he thought it was the best available. What I find interesting is that NBA fans railed against Chris Wallace for his Pau Gasol deal because he said it was the best offer but only because the Rockets benefitted from this particular Pau Gasol deal do they have a hard time swallowing the bitter pill that the league didn’t approve (and the league ran the Hornets). Unfortunately for the Rockets, until they can offer a legitimate foundation player or pick, we’re going to be missing out on trades if all we can offer is some role players and cap space.

Is cap space becoming more important these days? You could argue yes but you could also argue no. Harsher luxury tax penalties are on the way but teams that are paying the luxury tax make more than enough money to compensate for it. The challenge for NBA teams is to maximize cap space utility, not just to have it. The Rockets will have an abundance of cap space with players who don’t fully justify the utilization of it. Offering a team expiring deals when there are less players to warrant the money is a futile endeavor. If you have ever tried to assemble IKEA furniture you know why deals centered on freeing up cap space aren’t desirable. You are given an abundance of stuff with no direction and the entity that gave you that stuff has spit gibberish at you and told you to "figure it out." If you’re lucky they gave you an Allen Wrench and you’re just going to swear at how bad your palms hurt later.

Ultimately, the Rockets need to either blow it up, trade or overspend themselves into a position where they have to cooperate with the draft structure, or continue lateral moves trading role players or luxury pieces for more role players or luxury items.

Playoffs Chug Along Without Rockets

2012-05-09T13:48:54Z

Three teams have been sent home early. Two were expected to make quick exits (the Jazz and Magic) and the other just didn't catch many breaks (the Mavericks).

The Grizzlies, Nuggets, Knicks, Bulls, and Hawks are on the brink of elimination.

Tonight, the two teams that are down 3-1 will have a chance to keep their series alive.

First, the Knicks take on the Heat in South Beach. The Knickerbockers finally won a game, and seem to have shifted a little momentum their way as well. In fact, game 1 was an absolute blowout but each successive game has gotten closer and closer. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues with a return to Miami. The winner of this series gets the Indiana Pacers

The second and final game of the night features the Clippers at the Grizzlies in Memphis. Every game has been pretty close (games have been decided by 1, 7, 1, and 4 points). So by that logic game 5 should come down to the wire as well. The question is whether or not the Clippers go for the jugular or if they stay back and wait for game 6 back at Staples. Should they win tonight, they set up a date with the 1-seed Spurs.

I say the home teams win tonight. What are your thoughts?

NBA Mock Draft Update: Rockets Get A Little Bit Taller

2012-05-08T17:33:57Z

We're quickly entering Mock ~~You Like A~~ Hurricane Season. Draft experts have been at it for some time now, but with a handful of teams and fans already turning to the offseason for answers, it's time to bring out the educated guesses. Here's a look at your mock draft update from a few of the most prominent web sites out there. I've attached any available pick analysis that each website offered. I've also added some analysis of my own, because ANALYSIS.

SB Nation

14: Perry Jones, PF Baylor

Not only will Jones The Third be an asset defensively for Houston, but he'll also help NASA reach potential sentients in outer galaxies.

Not the most helpful analysis here, but the pick would obviously be one of Houston's best-case scenarios. I'm not a huge Jones III fan myself, but just imagine, if he could someday put it all together and forge some sort of "me-first" complex... look out.

ESPN - Chad Ford

14: Terrence Jones, F Kentucky

The Rockets drafted in the same spot last year and came away with Marcus Morris. Jones has some similar talents, but with more upside. At this point, the Rockets take the player with the most upside.

16: Arnett Moultrie, PF Mississippi State

Moultrie has been steadily rising on draft boards the past few weeks as GMs and scouts go back and look at tape. His size, elite athletic ability and rebounding prowess make him worth the risk. In fact, I wonder if he'll really go this low. The Pistons could grab him at No. 9.

I think Moultrie is one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft and he's exactly the type of high-upside player I think Houston should target... except, he's just about the same type of player as Donatas Motiejunas, with a few differences of course. They're both tall power forwards with good shooting ability, and while Motie is more of a gunner and Moultrie is a better rebounder, scouts have questioned each's ability to guard inside. I won't mind it if Morey goes for the best talent available — clearly, at 16, I think Moultrie qualifies — but if that's the case, Luis Scola and Patrick Patterson need to hit the trading block.

As for Terrence Jones at 14, that's great value and it fills a need. Jones isn't the wing scorer that Houston needs, but he's got a chance to be a playmaker on both ends, and the Rockets need all of the two-way players they can get.

Draft Express

14: Kendall Marshall, PG North Carolina

16: Austin Rivers, SG Duke

I like this coup, too. Marshall won't be the next Rajon Rondo, but despite his shooting deficiencies, he has a chance to become a really talented floor general. There isn't a better passer in the college game, and whenever he was off the floor, UNC — an otherwise talented team — suffered mightily.

Taking Rivers at 16 would be my preferred course of action, since I don't think the guard-heavy Sixers would take a chance on him at 15.

NBADraft.net

14: Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State

16: Terrence Jones, F Kentucky

I've passed along my skepticism about Sullinger's ability to take any sort of "next step" at the pro level, but I could be wrong. Perhaps the most helpful addition to his development will be his outside shot, which instantly brings about some Kevin Love comparisons. He won't be Love — I repeat, he will not be Love — but I think he could become a solid starter if he can develop a craftier below-the-rim game. Learning a few tricks from Luis Scola wouldn't hurt, actually.

Ultimately, Sullinger at 14 and Jones at 16 would be a fantastic coup and would make sense on a Morey level, as he's usually prone to drafting players with experience. At the same time, going big with two picks would put more pressure on Morey to figure out the point guard position (assuming Gogi isn't re-signed). It also sets the stage for Kevin Martin to perform in a contract year.

The Hoops Report

14: Meyers Leonard, C Illinois

16: Austin Rivers, SG Duke

I'm not a huge fan of any centers in this draft, especially Leonard. He never made any sort of impression on an Illinois team that desperately needed him to step up his game. At the same time, there's a chance he could develop further if he sits behind Marcus Camby. Leonard and Rivers would represent a change in draft philosophy for Houston, and that's a change I think the Rockets need to implement sooner than later. I wouldn't love the Leonard pick, but I'd understand it if the Rockets are committed to rebuilding with youth.