The Good Phight

The Curse of the Wet Luzinski: Everything That Could Possibly Go Wrong for the 2010 Phillies (Act 2 - Starting Pitching)

2010-03-16T04:33:16Z

Cole Hamels' 2010 will have a lot to do with settling the Great BABIP Debate of Aught-Nine. If it goes poorly, Mr. Dreamboat sails down Elm Street, leaving man-crushers everywhere pining for something more, like maybe an outfielder with a full beard.

Browse more photos »

The scene of our 5-act tragedy now shifts to the mound; specifically, the Phillies' starting pitching and the most likely seasonal fill-in suspects. In this act of my preseason homage to Debbie Downer, our hero Roy goes to a dance and spies the beautiful Maria across the gym floor, only to find out she has a brother from a rival gang.

For those who missed it, dajafi did the optimist's version on March 7. But this post hand-wrings: Are the starters peaking too soon? Hey Jets! More balletic dance-rumbling after the jump...

Roy Halladay - Asteroid. Dread disease. Getting hurt at the plate, on the bases, or just a freak injury playing catch with his kid. But really, aside from health (he ranks 4th on BP's Pitcher Abuse Points ranking, but in a second tier well below Justin Verlander), there's really nothing that would have me worry about a groundball-throwing control specialist at the top of his game, who now gets to see a couple of pitchers every game at the plate. Moving on.

Cole Hamels - One way or the other, Hamels' 2010 will either bolster the cause of sabremetric analysis or be a Joe Morgan Jeans (TM) salesman's dream (one who manages the high-margin Mental Makeup (TM) counter at the registers, perhaps). The Hamels performance conundrum of Aught-Nine may go down in analysis circles as one of the better hot stove debates, kicked off by none other than TGPer-gone-Hollywood-BP Matt Swartz here (subscription req'd). He's still 26, has had an injury history, though not recently. So after last year we've all been wondering exactly what we have in this guy: the next Steve Carlton? Or Kevin Millwood? Our ST reports have him experimenting with new pitches, given his struggles with his curveball, and also note that he came to Florida in better shape. It's worth mulling here what another enigmatic season would do to the guy, to say nothing of the team. The panic button will be pressed deeply at, say, 1-4 with a 5+ ERA, in a way that would feel different even if lightning somehow struck and Halladay got off to that kind of start. But ask yourself: Between the two of them, which guy are you confident will be better able to turn it around? Be honest.

Exactly.

I'd also be remiss not to point out that stuff like this has happened before to Hamels, albeit as a minor leaguer. There is something about his nasal voice and introspection that drives knuckle-dragging WIP acolytes and their ilk wild, so in the wrong place with the wrong drunk, a potential catastrophe awaits. Now that he's a family guy, I'd consider this scenario remote, but it is an added pressure point on a guy I assume to be fairly conscious of his image.

Joe Blanton - The man's job is to eat innings, so I ask: What happens if he can't? By which I mean not that he would be overwhelmed instead with a desire to eat cupcakes, or cookies, or krimpets, or what have you, though you can worry about that if you'd like. No, no. I mean to worry about cascading effects where a period of Blanton's ineffectiveness, or long-term injury, or both for that matter, means that his dependable 5-7 innings every time out aren't there. And it's reasonable to expect that the bullpen won't do him as many favors this year as last year.

With Blanton out of the rotation, not only are the bottom three of the Phillies' order now Happ, Moyer, Kendrick? Contreras? Carpenter? - perhaps we shine the Pedro Lamp into the night sky again? - no matter - what the Phillies really stand to lose here is more substantial than first meets the eye. And no, I am not making fat jokes here. My own experience as a manager has taught me that it's the second-tier players who are dependable but don't get the great reviews - these are precisely the ones you never get around to making a succession plan for. And oh, how you wanted to. That one time. Before, you know. Dang.

J.A. Happ - Happ had a great 2009, but the sophomore slump wouldn't have a name unless it was founded on some sort of reality. Still, there's very little not to like about his 2009, and I'm finding it a bit difficult to go very negative on the guy, other than the typical stuff - he's young, blah blah blah - but past the injury zone at 27 - so when all is said and done I just get a vibe that this guy could be serviceable for a good long time, and the Phillies might have been wise to keep him around last summer.

Before we get to starter number 5, one last point about Pitcher Abuse Points. The Phillies' top four starters are in the top 26 in baseball (Halladay 4th, Happ 19th, Hamels 21st, and Blanton 26th), and those stats are regular-season calculations. So there was some extra playoff wear-and-tear, although there was plenty of rest between games.

Jamie Moyer - In some respects, it's too easy to write about what might go wrong with Moyer. He's 47, coming off injury and surgeries with complications, and despite some lackluster overall stats (and even the nature of lackluster is somewhat debatable), he never was built to set the pitching world on fire. So I'll tip my cap to my associate taco pal and join him merely in being contrarian. Even if this is his last season, not much could really go wrong, as at this point the Phils look like they have candidates to take his spot. He's a fifth starter, so as RememberthePhitans posted recently, pick your poison, and let's see how he shakes out. We all seem agreed that his big contract was a mistake, so instead of worrying about his performance, I'll leave you to worry instead about a scenario where he wins 16-20 games and says he wants to pitch for the Phillies until he's 50. Given his contract history, in that scenario Moyer will clear $100 million in his entire career.

And, briefly, in the wings, as a whole lot of these guys could spell disaster-a-rama:

Kyle Kendrick - You have to love his imprinting exercises on Halladay, and give him credit for it. I mean - what if it were you in that situation? I'd be game for any training regimen out there. You gotta root for the guy. Then he gets the roster spot, then the starting position, and all of a sudden we're looking at 25 more starts with this guy. Is Burgess Meredith still alive to help him work out?

Antonio Bastardo - The greatest potential Phillies jersey-tee aside, so far he just seems incapable of stringing together some good results, no matter where the Phillies try to put him. It's early yet, but 2010 might not be the year.

Drew Carpenter - As Spring Training wears on, Carpenter may be the guy to grab the Designated Rookie pitcher roster spot. If you're reduced to rooting for Carpenter, as much as he loves his mom and all, something desperately wrong has happened.

Pedro Martinez - The man's still out there. Standing on top of his building in the Dominican Republic, cape flapping ever so gently in the Caribbean breeze. Wistfully staring at the night sky. Waiting.

Man down: Polanco helped off field with "right knee strain"

2010-03-15T18:38:13Z

More photos » Joseph Kaczmarek - AP

The $18 million man in happier times. (AP Photo/ Joseph Kaczmarek)

Browse more photos »

Maybe our good luck with injuries is running out.

While trying to field a pop up near the pitching mound during today's Grapefruit League game against the Pirates, Placido Polanco went down in a heap and had to be helped off by a pair of trainers. The Phillies are calling it a "right knee strain" for now (hat tip to Matt Gelb, among others), and we'll presumably have to wait and see what an MRI says before we know more.

If Polanco winds up on the shelf for an extended period of time, methinks we'll be putting a lot of faith in 2010 being a bounceback campaign from Greg Dobbs, huh?

Report: Phillies internally discussing swap of Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols

2010-03-14T20:28:06Z

More photos » Tom Gannam - AP

Where's my money? TASTYKAKES. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

Browse more photos »

UPDATE: Per Todd Zolecki, Ruben Amaro, Jr. "strongly denies" that discussions have taken place.

"It's ridiculous," Amaro said. "It's unequivocally false. It's unfair to Ryan. It's unfair to the organization to have to answer the questions."

***

ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports that the Phillies have allegedly been discussing the possibility of swapping first basemen with the St. Louis Cardinals, sending Ryan Howard to the Cards in exchange for ManMachine Albert Pujols. Pujols is set to be a free agent after the 2011 season and there is a very real possibility that the Cardinals will not be able to afford his expected $30MM/year-ish salary. Howard, for his part, would return to his hometown of St. Louis (OK he's from the suburbs but you get it).

Ruben Amaro, Jr., denies it. He denies it completely.

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro flatly denied that the internal discussions have taken place. "Lies," he said. "That's a lie. I don't know who you're talking to, but that's a lie."

more after the jumpo

This is probably not gonna happen. It's sort of like me having internal discussions about trading my wife for Charlize Theron (I love you honey!). I mean, it's really really really really unlikely. But still...

zOMG.

The Good Phight / CBSSports.com Fantasy League Entrants Selected

2010-03-13T22:33:09Z

More photos » Gene J. Puskar - AP

Should I trade myself? (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Browse more photos »

If you're on the list below... congratulations! Welcome to the league! You should be getting an email instructing you how to set yourself up with a CBSSports.com ID. The email has been sent to the account you used to create your SBNation.com account. If you don't get the email, please send me a message at goodphightblog at gmail dot com.

If you are on the list, and you've changed your mind for whatever reason, please send me an email so I can select from my list of alternates.

1. WholeCamels

2. RememberThePhitans

3. Jose and the Contrarians

4. Chris Haines

5. Alex Falzone

6. ~~jemagee~~ BudVugger

7. jonk

8. Wet Luzinski

9. Walcott

10. The Dark

11. ThinMountainAir

12. Cormican

If you weren't selected, it's not too late to start your own Commissioner's League. Click here! Half price! FAR OUT.

CBSSports.com is an SB Nation partner and paying sponsor of the SB Nation baseball communities. This post is one of a series of sponsor endorsed posts related to the CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball Commissioner League.

The Curse of the Wet Luzinski: Everything That Could Possibly Go Wrong for the 2010 Phillies (A Tragedy in Five Acts)

2010-03-12T05:22:09Z

More photos » Kathy Willens - AP

Jayson Werth's beard may be man-tastic, but it could provide one of many distractions that have unintended consequences for the Phillies in 2010.

Browse more photos »

This might seem out of character for me, what with my Mr. Positive game chatter meme and all, but the unbridled optimism of this spring, both at this site and among Phillies fans in general, while (some of it) certainly warranted, feels strangely out of character. This time of year I'm normally staring at the fan gear like a straightjacket, but instead it all seems so nicely spiffy, like J. Crew did a total makeover of my wardrobe - so I'm ready to look all outdoorsy this summer with some sandy knees and plenty of mirthful, teeth-whitened smiles. And yet: the reality seems to be - despite multiple pinches to the contrary - that this team has been to the World Series the last two seasons. And won one!

Lest we forget: the year before the Phillies won a championship, the team lost its 10,000th game. The art of losing isn't hard to master, and the other side of the coin is mere millimeters away. So: this post is for you hard-core pessimists and contrarians out there who wish to indulge in the spirit of my teary 9-year-old self, crowded around a black-and-white TV at my cousin's engagement party, watching the wonderful 1977 team melt into a miasma of bad decisions and worse luck, as raindrops fell on the puddled maroon rubberized warning track of Veterans Stadium.

Today, in Act I (like any tragedy, a good one needs five acts, and can you really consider Phillies tragedy any other way?) I'll examine the starters and consider all that might go wrong (Act II: Pitching; Act III: Bench; Act IV: Bullpen; Act V: Competition/Ownership/Management/Business/Fan Base). Throughout this exercise, I'd like to indulge you all to remain in a world where there is only one moon, aliens have not (yet) landed and enslaved us, and laws of physics, time and space are generally unbroken, and buses have not gone on a Phillies-killing rampage.

Jimmy Rollins - I watch Rollins ever cognizant of the fact that he grew up idolizing Rickey Henderson. Granted, you could do worse, and I'll note that Henderson at age 31 was a monster, which continued throughout his early 30s. Still, Rollins' own imprinting has always felt forced, and a phenomenon that prevents him from growing into his own skin. But as for Rollins, another down year after his slump-a-rific 2009 (especially early on) would mark the third consecutive decline from his MVP season of 2007. Last year he had 725 PAs and sported a .296 OBP for a leadoff hitter in front of one of the strongest offenses in baseball - a staggering, aggravating out-machined waste of opportunity (can you imagine being the guy's agent?). And even at that, he scored 100 runs - and when he did, every Joe Morgan on the planet talked about how it correlated with winning. His tendencies to swing hard early and often, rarely bunt for a hit or chop the ball to the left side to take advantage of his speed, and, of course, not walk (he had 44 last year, which means that two in a week was unusual) means that he neither gets on for the big RBI guys nor does much to exhaust the pitchers. Put simply, he cannot disappear from the offense, not now, not this year. Opposing pitchers will invariably want to get him out; to the extent he'll oblige them with more of the same from 2009 will absolutely hurt this team.

Another protracted slump (like last April and June) and lineup tinkering is almost sure to cause angst, even though the Phillies have options in Victorino, Polanco and Werth (in about that order). Considering how the Phillies might handle an injury to Rollins is a little scary, as that's likely to mean Juan Castro before the Phillies wise up and put in Brian Bocock. Or me. Aggravating tendencies aside, there is the talisman factor at work here: Rollins has a nationally televised track record of coming up really big, and McNabb-like powers to antagonize New York City, which serves the dynamics of making it easy to love the guy, worrying quite a bit about what the team would be like without him, and taking some of the big media hype about his performance with a grain of salt. It also makes it difficult for Manuel to bench him when he's playing really poorly but otherwise healthy. A poor start, an injury, a weeks-long absence from the team, or a banishment to #6 spot in the lineup (where he probably belongs) with the resultant clubhouse kvetching - these are real possibilities.

Placido Polanco - Polanco is the ultimate WYSIWYG player: solid and unspectacular, a player who will bat about 20 points higher than his replacement, Pedro Feliz, with perhaps significantly worse defense, but likely not. Even though this is a pessimistic view, he suffered in Phillies' fans eyes because he replaced Scott Rolen, who was wonderful to watch play defense. Polanco was pretty good, and the Phils could have done worse than keeping him around in the meantime at third. In fact, they did. Still, you have to go back to 2001 to find a season where Polanco played more than 100 games at third base, and a 34-year-old arm may not get the ball over to first as quickly as a 25-year-old one. An injury to Polanco means lots more of Greg Dobbs, who is about as unknown a quantity this year as any. Mitigating factor is that if Manuel wants to get creative, he can use Polanco to spell Utley (or even Rollins) and give Dobbs at bats, or even fill in if Utley gets hurt for a long time. I'll be amazed if he's that creative.

One man's contact hitter is another guy who doesn't walk much. The last three years he's averaged 36 walks per season, and can you believe that's an improvement from the last time we saw him? So put him together with Rollins and the Phils will sport two guys at the top of the lineup who will combine for two walks per three-game series. In a good series. If both Rollins and Polanco go badly, we are looking at being 7 pitches deep in a game with two outs and nobody on for a lot of first innings.

Chase Utley - He gets hit by a lot of pitches, which is baseball's version of Russian Roulette. He's worn down toward the end of the season, and he's not getting any younger. And, as noted above, he may have a lot of 2-out, bases-empty situations, though that won't be his fault. And he's likely mortal. Other than that, it's clear that every day this cat is in the lineup is a blessing to every Phillies fan in the world. Still, how the Phils will spell him will be interesting and possibly troubling. Any permutation without any of the starting four infielders isn't thrilling and will rely on some kind of serendipity along the lines of a Tad Iguchi.

Ryan Howard - Howard had a 2009 where he became nearly impotent against lefties. (I know - left unsaid is that he moitalizes righties, hits gobs of homers, and knocks in lots of runs.) Still, his kryptonite is there for all the world to see: against a lefty who threw a first-pitch strike, you could just about bet the house that nothing was doing that at-bat. More of the same in 2010 will send him on a trek that might have him arrive in platoonville by his mid-30s, or even as trade bait. But as for that hedge, neither Greg Dobbs nor Ross Gload hit lefties particularly hard in their careers, just better than Howard can. Howard's resilient - for sure, and works on his weaknesses (in 2009, defense as well as historical slow starts at the plate) and takes care of his body - but somehow the big bat, hard swing needs adjustment in situations he routinely fails in, or else he winds up exposed in the postseason, as he was by the Yankees.

Jayson Werth - The joy of this guy is not just his bearded, Ultimate Male persona, but that he is a pitcher's worst nightmare. After tiptoeing through the minefield of Utley and Howard, you get the guy who leads the league in pitches per plate appearance, and is the perfect foil for overconfident lefties. It's strange to consider what a worst-case scenario is for Werth, although a long-term absence would certainly make this lineup an easier challenge for lefthanded pitchers, it would hasten the dawn of Domonic Brown. On the other hand, a subpar or injury-riddled season might not be the worst thing for the franchise given that it's his contract year as it would present far more options. But given what I wrote about Howard, the perfect worst-case storm is clear: Howard continues his counting stats rampage with typical holes that get exposed in the postseason, while Werth gets league MVP. The Amaro Smug Advisory system might be put in hyperdrive.

Raul Ibanez - Last season was a tale of two Rauls: the reinvigorated He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Pitched-To FA in a new league prior to his groin injury, and the slumpy, old, vague defensive liability after he returned. And yet, the guy finished the year with an OPS+ of 131. And he bats sixth. Even on a pessimistic take on the guy, his defense wasn't noticeably bad, as he benefitted both from the smaller left field of Citizens Bank Park and the recent memory of the web-footed Pat Burrell. And his August was bad - really bad - but even the negative part of me needs to remember that his September and postseason was, yes, gritty indeed and close to his career averages. Backed up by Ben Francisco or John Mayberry Jr., there is likely replacement level behind him. Worst case? An injury-riddled, dud season will prohibit Amaro from being able to flip the last year of his albatross of a contract anywhere else.

Shane Victorino - The spring training shoulder injury bothers me, because we may never know for sure if the offensive slump he'll start the season with has anything to do with that or his new role as #7 in the order. Plus, I don't think he's the type who'll be able to control himself in a long period of discontent in a spot he doesn't want to be in. I'd say then that his biggest downside risk is that, in the absence of Brett Myers, he's the most likely Phillie to be a lightning rod for controversy. And as the New York Post has shown us, he's easy to hate. May be premature to put Tyson Gillies in there if he gets hurt for a long time, but may not be. $3 million for a guy who compares to Jeff Leonard, Bernard GIlkey, Kevin Bass, David Dejesus? He's young enough to turn it around, but unpredictable enough to drive himself off the baseball cliff.

Carlos Ruiz - While the Phillies have bet the catching farm on Ruiz, nonetheless it's the position player any team is most likely to lose for a while. Worst case, given Ibanez/Victorino/Ruiz - is that all three players are likely to be hurt at the same time. Brian Schneider is perhaps the most-capable backup the Phillies have had at catcher over the last five years, however.

Best infield ever?

2010-03-10T17:59:16Z

Conlin threw up this article recently. Before I even clicked on it, I knew it would include Tinkers to Evers to Chance. Of course, he discusses the potential place of Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Polanco among great infields (yet to be determined, I might add, as 2010 has not been played).

For fun, I decided to look at the question a bit (real baseball still being fairly far off). I excluded the position of catcher from the infield, since Conlin did, though I disagree with the idea. Consider the effect of that on teams such as the Reds of the 70's, the A's of the late 20's/early 30's, the Dodgers from the late 40's-50's, and the recent Yankee teams.

I do not possess a comprehensive, omniscient view of baseball history -- the selections below are just the ones I picked based on my base of information. Feel free to chime in with the teams you think I missed. Some of mine are one-hit wonders, some have more staying power. Mostly, they were good teams with one or two standouts and at least average play at the worst position(s). I'll address the issues that raises later.

I also included some of the better Phillies infields, even though they clearly do not belong with some of the others listed. I am not suggesting that they do -- they are there just for local flava. I was surprised at what the best Phillies infield turned out to be. [Drama!]

Candidates - Year/Team/1B/2B/3B/SS:

1967 Orioles: Powell, Johnson, Robinson, Aparicio. 407 OPS+. Not the best offensively, but that left side is tight.
1977 Dodgers: Garvey, Lopes, Cey, Russell. 422 OPS+. Substantially overrated. Included just to remind Russell Martin that the Dodgers of the 70's were overrated, too.
1976 Phillies: Allen, Cash, Bowa, Schmidt. 436 OPS+. Why couldn't the Phillies just get along with Dick Allen? Or vice versa? At least they got Willie Montanez out of it.
2009 Phillies: Howard, Utley, Feliz, Rollins. 443 OPS+. Rollins had a terrible year and Feliz had a normal (but terrible) year.
2006 Phillies: Howard, Utley, Bell, Rollins. 480 OPS+. A prelude that needed pitching.
2010 Imaginary, no-injury Guesstimate Phillies: 480 OPS+. Howard (140), Utley (135), Polanco (100), Rollins (105). Good, but not all-time great, unless someone goes nuts.
1998 Braves: Galarraga, Lockhart, Jones, Weiss. 482 OPS+. It wasn't just pitching that made the Braves good -- they had production at the corners.
1908 Pirates: Swacina, Abbaticchio, Leach and Wagner. 497 OPS+. The Wagner effect.
1981 Phillies: Rose, Trillo, Schmidt, Bowa. 511 OPS+. Mike Schmidt's best year. He was sort of good. Surprising to me that, at least using OPS+ totals, that this group outperformed recent Phillies infields.
1993 Blue Jays: Olerud, Alomar, Sprague, Fernandez. 528 OPS+. Surprising to me at first, but then less-so on reflection.
1927 Giants: Terry, Hornsby, Lindstrom, Jackson. 552 OPS+. Hall of Famers, every one.
1976 Reds: Perez, Morgan, Rose, Concepcion. 553 OPS+. The Big Red Machine.
2009 Yankees: Texiera, Cano, Rodriguez, Jeter. 557 OPS+. It still stings, but the Yankees didn't win because of a fluke.
1994 Astros: Bagwell, Biggio, Caminiti, Cedeno. 574 OPS+. Looks like the 1993 Phillies weren't the only ones on steroids.

I lack a good source of VORP or WAR for the whole data set from 1908 to present. Either/both would be really, really helpful. I'm left with OPS+, and a somewhat awful tactic of combining the OPS+ for several players. This inflates the value of first basemen (among other many and manifest ills), since I've biased toward offense alone and since I provide no adjustment for position. Essentially, this is an analysis of "good offensive" infields. Other metrics would be much, much better. I think the '67 Orioles would fare much better, for instance. I think the 2009 Phillies would fare better as well, honestly.

What of the Wagner effect? The 1908 and 1909 Pirates infields are virtually the same in total OPS+, but the only player that is the same from year to year is Honus Wagner. Incidentally, he provides much of the OPS+. This is not a good "infield"; this is just Honus being Honus. I discount the 1908/9 Pirates on that basis. The 1981 Phillies have a bit of that, too, since 199 of the OPS comes from Schmidt. On the other hand, Rose was very good that year. Bowa and Trillo were average. The 1981 Phillies also had a shortened season, which potentially hurts them -- maybe Schmidt would have cooled off, even though he was similarly good for pretty much all of 1980, for instance. It's arguable, anyway.

The Yankees of 2009 represent the flip side of the Wagner effect. Each player contributed at a rate well above league average: 149, 129, 147, 132. In addition, each of the players has a track record of being good for a fair period. Last year was no fluke, in other words. Texiera and Rodriguez are both very good defensively. Jeter less so, but not to the point of Knoblauchiness.

The 1994 Astros have a couple of problems, including steroids and a shortened season. Nevertheless, Biggio and Bagwell were unquestionably good for long stretches. Caminiti was excellent, though he was comprised nearly entirely of creatine and durabolin. Their numbers are just as authentic as the Yankees' numbers last year and the numbers of the 27 Giants, who benefited from the exclusion of black players from MLB.

Maybe the true winner here is the 1976 Reds:

Strong OPS+ from all 4 positions (Perez/118, Morgan/187, Rose/141, Concepcion/107)
Played before widespread steroid use (but not before amphetamines)
Played during integration
Long, productive careers from each (no fluky years)
Supplemented, but not overwhelmed, by Morgan's ridiculous 1976 numbers
The 76 Reds also perform well if the catcher is included, so I am less uneasy about the exclusion of catchers used unfairly at the outset

On a final note, Conlin suggested that the current Phillies team may be "...potentially the greatest all-around infield of a modern era that began in 1947 when Jack Roosevelt Robinson kicked down the door that had barred players of color from the major leagues."

Clearly, it isn't. While great, it is not objectively better than the Yankees infield of last year. The offensive production is just not there. The infield may not even be the best Phillies infield ever. Schmidt and Rose together were good for an OPS+ total of 318 in 1981. Utley and Howard have never combined for a total that high. If you throw in a catcher, the Phillies fare even worse compared to the true greats, including some teams not on this list because of the catcher exclusion.

If someone could flesh this out with some VORP or WAR data, I would be really interested in seeing it, as well as suggestions of infields I missed or excluded.

Welcome new front page authors taco pal and Wet Luzinski!

2010-03-10T12:38:55Z

More photos » Kathy Willens - AP

New front page author Wet Luzinski (left) approaches Blog Lord WholeCamels (far right), looking for input on an upcoming piece about the Phillies' late relief situation.

Browse more photos »

As we get closer to the start of the season, we'll need help bringing you top-notch Phillies coverage. To that end, we've deputized long-time readers and commenters taco pal and Wet Luzinski, your new Associate Blog Lords.

Please welcome them, and please be gentle!

Join The Good Phight's Fantasy Baseball League! From CBSSports.com

2010-03-08T04:23:10Z

Stop what you're doing right now and apply for entry into The Good Phight's fantasy baseball league!

Thanks to a new deal, we are getting a FREE CBSSports.com Commissioner's League to play with. Yessir, you may get the privilege of mopping the floor with me in the fantasy baseball!

Some of the features:

This product won 8 out of 9 Fantasy Sports Trade Association Awards for "Best Fantasy Baseball Commissioner League Management Product
You can customize entire league the way you want...rules, scores, teams + more

There is LIVE scoring & stats so you can follow along as your teams rack up points
Keeper league capability to carry on the tradition for many seasons to come
Expert analysis provides up-to-date information on all players & teams
Live chat/league messenger to trash talk with your competition
14-Day Free Trial included

So I'm recruiting and would like at least 12 participants (I might expand the league depending on demand). Or you can start your own Commissioner's League by clicking here (currently only $90, half off the regular price).

So if you want to participate, make a post in the comments below with "BONANZA" in the subject line, and tell me in 50 words or less why you should be admitted to the league. I can't promise everyone a spot, I'm going to play favorites (regular, long-standing community members will get preference), and this won't be a terribly competitive league.

Once we have a full league, we'll talk scoring, draft, rules, etc.

To Arms! Why Phillies Pitching Should Surge in 2010

2010-03-07T18:25:14Z

More photos » Darren Calabrese - AP

Quantity might matter as much as quality for Cole Hamels in 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

Browse more photos »

Watching the Phillies "30 Teams in 30 Days" segment on MLB Network the other night, I was struck by how much better the team's 2009 pitching numbers were after the All-Star break. The team's ERA dropped dramatically between July and the end of the season, Phils hurlers allowed home runs at a sharply lower rate, and--most significantly in my opinion--the starters in particular worked more innings.

The reasons for this aren't a mystery: between May and August, struggling starters Chan Ho Park, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer gave way to J.A. Happ, Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, with Antonio Bastardo and Rodrigo Lopez taking interim turns in the rotation before Lee and Pedro showed up. The two former Cy Young award winners were magnificent for the Phillies, and all Happ did was finish second in Rookie of the Year balloting. Meanwhile, Joe Blanton rebounded from a shaky start to the '09 season, and Cole Hamels was sharply better after a terrible April.

I've written here before that rotation stability--or, to put it another way, starter quantity almost independent of quality--seems to be the key for overall Phillies pitching performance. With a 2010 rotation that's considerably more settled than its immediate predecessor, the stage could be set for the team's best mound performance in a long time.

Overall, the team put up middling pitching numbers in 2009, with a 4.16 team ERA (6th in the National League) despite a .265 batting average against (12th), .757 opponents OPS (11th) and 189 home runs allowed (13th). There wasn't much quality differentiation between rotation and bullpen: the starters put up a collective 4.29 ERA, 7th in the league, while the relievers' 3.91 mark was 9th. Phillies starters threw 963.2 innings, 6th in the Senior Circuit; that looks a lot better when you consider that through the first month or so, the starters barely topped an average of 5 innings per game. That put a lot of strain on the bullpen, which itself wasn't at full strength with Brad Lidge embarked upon his nightmare 2009 and J.C. Romero still suspended.

Nothing is foreordained, of course, but there's reason to think that 2010 could see a return to the successful dynamic of 2008, when starting pitcher quantity--Phils starters worked the fourth-most innings in the NL--contributed to reliever quality (a league-best 3.22 bullpen ERA). Rebounds from Lidge and Romero will be crucial here, but even if they don't totally return to form, a collective 800 innings from the first four men in the rotation will go a long way toward limiting the damage they might do.

Is that feasible? I think so. As you might have heard, this Roy Halladay guy we have now is both pretty good and quite durable: in the last four seasons, he's worked 220, 225.1, 246 and 239 innings and thrown 29 complete games. Assuming good health--an across the board caveat here, of course--those inning numbers shouldn't go down now that he'll see opposing pitchers rather than designated hitters three or so times each start. Consensus projections have Halladay throwing around 210-220 innings this season, which might represent slight error on the conservative side--though maybe they're figuring Charlie Manuel will want to keep Doc relatively fresh for additional work in October.

Then there's Number Two starter Hamels. It's a bit startling that only three years ago we were all concerned about the lefty's durability, but he's shaken the "fragile" label that followed him through the minors with over 600 regular season innings the last three years, plus another 60 or so in the playoffs. About 200 frames in his age-26 season sounds about right to me, and I think they'll be of sharply higher quality than his overall 2009 work.

Third starter Joe Blanton came to the Phils during the 2008 season with a reputation as an innings-eater--a descriptor that nicely fit with the innumerable fat jokes made at Blanton's expense. But some minor health concerns limited his durability down the stretch in '08, and he didn't quite crack 200 innings in a generally strong '09 season. Still, 190-plus innings at slightly above league average from your #3, in front of a great lineup and strong defense, is just fine, thanks. Having shed a few pounds this offseason, it's not unrealistic to imagine Kentucky Joe taking both a quantitative and qualitative step forward--Bill James, who seems uniformly bullish on the Phils, is a believer--but even more of same is just fine.

J.A. Happ, in camp with a guaranteed rotation spot for the first time in his short career, doesn't have the workhorse track record of his three rotation mates. But the lefty's large frame, relatively clean injury history as a professional and intelligence all suggest that it's no stretch to pencil him in for 180 innings or so. There's also no particular need for Charlie Manuel and Rich Dubee to monitor Happ's innings workload: at age 27, he's more or less out of the "injury nexus."

In total, Phillies pitchers threw 1455.2 innings last year. Their four heaviest-workload starters were Blanton (195.1 IP), Hamels (193.2), Happ (144.1), and Jamie Moyer (143.1), for a total of 676.2 innings at a combined 4.18 ERA. Lee, Brett Myers, Martinez, Park, Lopez, Bastardo, Kyle Kendrick and Andrew Carpenter combined to throw another 287 innings, of wildly varying quality. If Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, and Happ can approach a combined 800 innings at around a collective 3.80 ERA, that buys a lot of certainty even with the questions around Moyer and Kendrick in the fifth starter slot, the comeback efforts for Lidge and Romero, and uncertainty elsewhere in the bullpen.

Roy Halladay: Will He Help Our Schedule Issues?

2010-03-05T20:37:59Z

More photos » Kathy Willens - AP

Browse more photos »

Ask any informed fan about the Phillies' woes based on the schedule, and you're likely to get two answers: 1) the team sucks out of the gate, and 2) the team really suffers during interleague play. Looking at the team's win/loss record over the past three years based on month shows this perception is not entirely accurate, but is pretty close:

Month	W	L	W/L %
March/April	37	36	0.507
May	49	36	0.576
June	38	42	0.475
July	50	27	0.649
August	48	36	0.571
Sept/Oct	52	33	0.612

The Phillies have an overall winning percentage of .564 over the past three years. The only two months they're below that figure is March/April when they have a .504 winning percentage and June when it's at .475. In fact, without those two months, the Phillies have won almost 60% of their games (.598 winning percentage).

So, will Roy Halladay help with these two maladies? The answer is split, as he should help in June, but April might continue to be a problem.

Let's start at the beginning of the year. Historically, in April, Halladay is at his worst. Over the course of his career, he's appeared in 55 March/April games, starting 52 of them. He has slightly lower, but roughly comparable, numbers of appearances/starts in the other months as well.

Almost across the board, Halladay has his worst or second-to-worst career marks in April. His career April ERA is 4.13, his worst by month. His RA is 4.55, also his worst. His WHIP is 1.242, tied for second worst. His strikeout rate is 6.4, tied for worst. His opponents' OPS is .717, second worst. And in each of his last two years, Halladay has had his second worst monthly ERA in April.

Of course, none of this is to say that he won't have a stellar month of April this year. After all, in 2007, his April ERA was his best for the year. And this analysis doesn't mean that, even if not his best, this April from Halladay won't be better than someone else that the Phillies ran out there in years past. However, based on his past, don't look for Halladay to be an immediate savior for the team that struggles out of the gate.

On the other hand, Halladay may just help in June. Overall, June is a better month for him. He has a 3.57 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, and .667 OPS against.

But, more importantly, the Phillies' June struggles have come in large part from being awful in interleague play. Obviously, Halladay's dominance over the past decade has come against AL teams. Although he's actually had more success in his career against NL teams (3.02 ERA in interleague play compared to 3.48 ERA against the AL), he still has had huge success against the AL.

This analysis does not change that Halladay is going to be a huge asset for the Phillies this year. However, to the extent there's some big-picture institutional issue going on with the team at the start of the season, don't expect him to radically alter the team's problems early on. But, you can expect him to help a team that's historically struggled against the AL.

So Far, So Good for Hamels

2010-03-05T20:14:21Z

So Far, So Good for Hamels

Despite the big fly he allowed to Jose Bautista in Florida this afternoon, it sounds like a very strong spring debut for Cole Hamels: velocity ahead of where he started the 2009 regular season, and early success with the cut fastball he's working on. Hamels, who threw five cutters against the Jays, sees it as a useful pitch against lefties, who have hit the southpaw Hamels better than righties over his career.

Cole Hamels - What have the Phillies got?

2010-03-05T16:51:56Z

I was reading the local papers today for Phillies coverage. Came across the "Halladay/Hamels era begins" story, and it made me start wondering what people think Hamels "is" as a pitcher. Cole Hamels is still a really young player -- he just turned 26 a couple of months ago. The discussions about Hamels 2009 performance at this site and elsewhere have been extensive, with K/9, BB/9, BABIP, FIP, xFIP all examined, beaten to death, etc. We can't predict what he will do this year or further out, but, perhaps from some other angles, a further examination can help continue to develop some sense of conventional wisdom about him. This is more of a discussion of perspective than a statistical breakdown, which has already been seen here many times in many forms. Lord knows, I can't "out-Matt" Mattman.

Let's get some reference sources out there so you can open them in other tabs:

Hamels @ Baseball Prospectus, with some career estimates through 2015.
Hamels @ Baseball Reference: Career data

The ages of other pitchers in the Phillies rotation, or potentially so:

Halladay - 32
Hamels - 26
Blanton - 29
Happ - 27
Moyer - 47
Contreras - Radiocarbon dating suggests 38
Kendrick - 25

The ages are of interest to me. Kendrick is the youngest of the 7, but not by much. My easy and obvious point is that Hamels is still really young. MLB experience puts him ahead of Happ/Kendrick in terms of starts, innings and "experience" but in just age, Hamels is quite young. Considering the impact of relatively recent theories of brain development in capital case law, for instance, it is fair to assess the degree to which he can be considered a finished product.

Traditional analysis and writing talks about "maturation" and "learning to pitch." I prefer to consider how learning to remediate maladaptive reactions to stressors (such as the oft-publicized "snapping of the glove" after close calls or the "glaring" after errors in the field) can continue to improve his performance. All of the maladaptations, incidentally, are contrary to the "California" label attached to Hamels.

Editorial points aside, is a demonstrative expression of emotion actually a bad thing for him? Would a more passe Hamels be more effective? If he can manage stress in a better way, does he perform better? Does less cortisol mean more-efficiently produced outs? Did we just not observe the traits because of his previous level of success? Adapting to and responding to challenge and failure in a positive way is a big developmental step for a lot of people, not just baseball players. Hamels may have been experiencing that last year on a big stage.

Players are not robots (excepting Mariano Rivera and Albert Pujols, evidently). The unfortunate example of Brett Myers may be Exhibit A in how this can be bad. The human factors clearly exist and unquestionably show up even in statistics -- if outs are not being produced efficiently by a pitcher, whether as a result of poor emotional regulation or a frayed labrum, it shows up in a lack of effectiveness. One thing that is hard to do is how you can come up with a useful statistical model, or even comparisons, in trying to ascertain if there is upside yet for Hamels or how the human factor characteristics can be tracked or monitored over time. Clearly, absent disclosure of detailed medical records, this can't really be determined except by anecdote, which is essentially saying that it can't be determined from afar.

I don't have a "theory of Hamels" yet that really satisfies me. The original article at philly.com got me thinking about "an era" involving Hamels and Halladay. That sort of posits that you have a remarkable duo. There were no "Eaton/Lieber era" articles that I recall, for instance. It also sort of assumes that Hamels is known as a high-performing product of some known qualities. I am less convinced that any of us knows that much about Hamels right now.

The main point that I am sure of right now is that Cole Hamels is still really, really young. I think a lot of fans forget that. I really wish that the team would try to make that point more often, even if only through subtle reminders.
What Hamels turns out to be in the long run as a pitcher is still very unclear to me. I hope that he may bring balance to the force, but conversely I also fear that he may bring balance to the force.
And just for fun:

Halladay through age 25: 37-24, 575 IP, 116 ERA+, 1.393 WHIP, 9.3 H/9, 6.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 1.92 K/BB
Hamels through age 25: 48-34, 736 IP, 121 ERA+, 1.176 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 8.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.67 K/BB

My final thought is that if the Phillies hope to be good all the time and not just for a "window", then Hamels is going to have to be a big part of that. IIRC, Halladay will be here for 3 years, assuming the contract plays out. Hamel's years for ages 32, 33, and 34 are 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. That's how young he is right now, and that is why everything we all "know" about Cole Hamels is still subject to enormous change down the road.

Yankees at Phillies Pre-Season Game Thread, World Series Is Not Enough: March 4, 2010

2010-03-04T18:11:55Z

More photos » Kathy Willens - AP

12 days ago: New York Yankees designated hitter Nick Johnson, left, and other Yankees go through conditioning drills before their spring training baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Brighthouse Field in Clearwater, Fla., Thursday, March 4, 2010. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Browse more photos »

Discuss the game here. If you're into that kind of thing.

Shiny new thing Roy Halladay vs. CC Sabathia.

The Longest Winter: Pre-preseason game #1: Phillies vs. Florida State game thread

2010-03-04T00:52:06Z

Thanks to PhillyFriar for the link. The radio feed for the Phils/FSU game is below.

http://www.seminoles.com/multimedia/baseball.htm

If you're itching for a little baseball after a long offseason and multiple feet of snow, it's time to dust off our game chatter spikes and cheer on the JV as they take on the 6th ranked team in the NCAA. If you close your eyes, you can imagine Florida State's mascot to be as thoroughgoingly objectionable as the one of the Braves.

Early on, it's 4-0 Seminoles. 3-run HR surrendered by Monsieur Aumont

Phillies Links for You: March 3, 2010

2010-03-03T13:52:36Z

More photos » Eric Gay - AP

17 days ago: Philadelphia Phillies spring instructor Mike Schmidt, right, walks on the field during spring training baseball practice, Friday, Feb. 26, 2010 in Clearwater, Fla. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Browse more photos »

It's been a blessedly quiet Spring Training so far. Let's hope it stays that way. No news = good news.

Phils begin spring slate vs. Florida State | phillies.com: News
The Phillies will take the field as a team Wednesday for the first time in 2010, facing Florida State in an exhibition game at Bright House Field at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Live Phillies blog: Victorino update
Shane Victorino's shoulder is kinda sore, will miss tomorrow's spring opener.

Phillies payroll has risen from $27.3M in 1999 to $143.5M for 2010 | Philadelphia Daily News | 03/03/2010
This really puts a lot of things into perspective.

'Stache-stastic! Collin Balester wins offseason facial hair contest - Big League Stew
OK I was wrong, THIS dude really looks like Gordon Lightfoot.

Phillies pitcher Happ would love to rattle sabermetricians | Philadelphia Daily News | 03/03/2010
Ugh. And wow. Just wow. For extra fun, peep the Comments section.

I don't think anyone can say with a straight face that J.A. Happ is a sub-3.00 ERA starter. He's going to regress, probably to somewhere in the low to mid-4.00s in ERA. Which is absolutely fine!

Yankees' World Series Shares Cut by $15,023
At least when the PHILLIES win the World Series, they can allocate the money properly...

Ryan Howard of Phillies struggles against breaking balls - Tom Verducci
Thanks for the tip, Tom.

The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Park Chan-ho Has First Day as a Yankee

Outfielder Greg Golson was originally given 61, but it was handed over to Park as "part of the Yankees' plan to accommodate their newest player," the New York Times reported. Park threw 35 pitches on Tuesday, combining both fastballs and variations, and the team's staff expressed their satisfaction.

Good luck with all that.

Marson has a lot on his shoulders | MLB.com: News
With Carlos Santana well on his way, you wonder how long Lou Marson is going to stick in Cleveland.

Former pitcher throws curveballs at opponents on unemployment bill
You know, I'm glad the Phillies are good right now, so Jim Bunning's jackassery doesn't constitute the "face of the franchise" on the nightly news.

R-Phils Name Top 10 Promotions For 2010
No better place to watch a baseball game than Reading -- I mean, you have a crazy hot dog guy!!

Talking Chop: Projecting the NL East Rotations

2010-02-28T16:04:35Z

Talking Chop: Projecting the NL East Rotations

Pretty much confirms two things we already knew: The Braves have the best top-to-bottom starting staff in the division right now, and the Phillies might have some serious problems at the #5 spot in the rotation.

1-2-3: Phils News in Brief

2010-02-27T20:39:02Z

More photos » Eric Gay - AP

No, Wheels, it's not a split. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Browse more photos »

Just a few things to know as we await the start of Grapefruit League ball:

Baseball America has released its top 100 prospects list, and only two Phillies pharmhands--Domonic Brown (#15) and Phillippe Aumont (#93)--are on the list. This isn't surprising, given the talent offloaded in the Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay trades, and it might be some consolation to note that four other former Phils prospects--Kyle Drabek (#25), Michael Taylor (#29), Jason Knapp (#64) and Travis d'Arnaud (#81)--are in the top hundred. Pending further trades, of course, I wouldn't be surprised to see four or five Phils entrants on next year's list.
Just when you thought Cole Hamels was going to focus on his curveball to the exclusion of other pitches beyond his well established fastball and changeup, reports from Florida are that he debuted a promising cutter in a mound session on Friday. He's been taking pointers on the pitch from a pretty good authority: ace Roy Halladay.
Boston's gain is our loss: Scott Lauber of the Wilmington, Delaware-based News Journal and the excellent Philled In blog is joining the staff of the Boston Herald in a few weeks' time. The Phillies' improved fortunes over the last few years has been mirrored by the emergence of a crop of thoughtful young writers in the major Philly-area outlets covering the club, and Scott has been in the forefront of that group. We wish him the very best of luck in his new gig.

Yahoo! Sports: Domonic Brown, Sweetest Guy in Town

2010-02-27T13:19:05Z

Yahoo! Sports: Domonic Brown, Sweetest Guy in Town

Really, really starting to like this kid a lot.

Phillies Links For You: February 26, 2010

2010-02-26T16:17:57Z

More photos » Eric Gay - AP

Sundowwnnn.... you better take care... (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Browse more photos »

Our first "spring" link dump, yay!

G-20 Summit could conflict with Phillies-Blue Jays series at the end of June
An older story, but I'm sure Bud Selig would be more than happy to volunteer Miller Park for one or more of these games...

Phils like Aumont's potential as pitcher
Between this and Kevin Goldstein's evaluation, I'm feeling better about Phillippe Aumont.

Phillies Notes: For Phillies' hitters, a hello to arms
Roy Halladay vs. Phillies Lineup = end of humanity?

Lee left mark in stint with Phillies
He still seems like such a sad boy.

Bobby Cox, In His Final Season, Needs to Put It All On The Line
Tons of extra whining about the dimensions of Citizens Bank Park this season.

Moyer practices; Lidge still limited
The 47 year old is making you look bad, Brad.

Phillies glad to be back? Photo day shots sure don't show it - Big League Stew
INTENSITY.

The Phillies, The Big Red Machine, and All Time Great Teams | The Perpetual Post
Okay, it's a nice piece, but why spend so much time debunking an argument that no one has really tried to make?

Phillies prospect Brown getting education in spring training | Philadelphia Daily News | 02/26/2010
Domonic Brown gets the full-on media treatment. No pressure, kid.

Oakland pitcher Bailey remains a Philly fan
Andrew Bailey to Phillies? Yes please.

Phillies' Zagurski looking for a chance | Philadelphia Inquirer | 02/26/2010
I am pleased to note that Mike Zagurski still resembles an enormous toddler.

Bill Conlin: Phillies getting on track at swing training | Philadelphia Daily News | 02/26/2010
I just don't know.

New dad Jonathan Broxton is in a state of bliss - latimes.com
Should have named the kid "Matthew Moonshot."

Moving experience for former Phillies' prospect Taylor, now with Oakland | Philadelphia Daily News | 02/26/2010
I am psyched for Michael Taylor and I hope he does well (the Athletics are my favorite American League team).

Domonic Brown takes some swings against Roy Halladay, fails miserably.

2010-02-26T01:21:04Z

Domonic Brown takes some swings against Roy Halladay, fails miserably.

Click through for video at Phillies Pravda.