The Only Colors

The hyphen will not hold

2012-05-15T12:48:06Z

It's May, that wonderful time of year when college basketball pundits grasp for anything resembling a commentary topic. Currently, that topic is the perceived explosion in the number of players transferring between schools. Example:

Transfers have increasingly become a fundamental part of the NCAA experience, so much so that coaches rarely escape a year without losing at least one underclassman looking for a fresh start. It's such a prevalent part of building rosters now that some programs market themselves as a place for transfers to land, and those coaches focus their recruiting efforts on landing players the second time around.

Few in college athletics, however, believe this is a positive trend. Most transfers happen because a player is dissatisfied, an acknowledgement of failure on the part of the coach or player. And though football sees its share of players changing programs every year, the problem is becoming especially visible in college basketball, where more than 400 players — an average of more than one per Div. 1 program — have already switched schools this offseason.

(HTs: Gasaway and Beyond the Arc)

Now, as it turns out, players aren't actually transferring at an increasing rate, at least from power conference teams:

Players leaving with eligibility left (excluding NBA draft early entrants)

2004: 174
2005: 197
2006: 185
2007: 192
2008: 160
2009: 137
2010: 203
2011: 165
2012: 113 (through April 30th)

My theory as to the gap between perception and reality here: the large number of high-profile transfers of late, primarily due to the NCAA's fifth-year transfer rule. When the guy sitting at the end of the bench leaves for a new school, it's a footnote. When starters move to new schools, people notice. This offseason has seen Alex Oriakhi transfer to Missouri (because of UConn's postseason ban), Xavier guard Mark Lyons follow his former coach to Arizona, and Kentucky add the services of former Wright State sharpshooter Julius Mays.

MSU fans have experienced the on-court/field implications of the fifth-year transfer rule from both perspectives: While Brandon Wood wasn't the "best player at Michigan State," he was probably the difference between hanging a Big Ten basketball title banner and not. On the flip side, if the rule didn't exist, Russell Wilson doesn't matriculate in Madison for a year and the 2011 MSU football team may well be wearing Rose Bowl rings.

Given all that, Mr. Rexrode offered his take on the rule yesterday:

It’s time for this loophole to be sealed. Now. Yesterday. It’s so misguided, the SEC banned its schools from accepting such transfers a year ago.

So not only has this rule essentially brought free agency to college sports, it has managed to make the SEC look progressive. Impressive!
Coaches are trying to kill the rule, which actually was enacted in 2005 and tweaked to its current form in 2007 — just not exploited to the point of abuse until the past couple years. The National Association of Basketball Coaches met Thursday with NCAA President Mark Emmert and discussed the restriction of transfers, according to ESPN.

I don't necessarily think there's a neat solution here. This is where that cute little NCAA euphemism runs into a wall: Which half of the term "student-athlete" trumps the other? If it's "student," then why shouldn't a player who has fulfilled all his academic obligations at the undergraduate level have the freedom to move on to a new educational institution? If it's "athlete," then the NCAA should absolutely look to maintain competitive balance, enforce the penalty for breaking the contract the player signed with his team, and avoid a situation that basically looks like a free agency hunt (a part of professional sports many fans still find unseemly).

There is, of course, a much larger tension between the words on either end of that hyphen: You can't have tens of millions of dollars hanging on the right side of the hyphen with the weight of the amateur ideal perched on the left, without the construction breaking in half at some point. The fifth-year transfer issue is a relatively small piece of the puzzle--which is why I would leave the rule as is. If a coach can effectively walk away from his contract to pursue a better opportunity at any time, I can't get too worked up about a kid who finishes his degree earning the right to do the same.

Long term, there will be much bigger cracks in the infrastructure. At some point, the scales will tip inexorably one way or the other. Call me a cynic, but my bet is that money wins out over principle. There's definitely no neat solution for the broader scheme: All of us who are more than eager to turn our money over to university athletic departments (including this guy, who recently rejoined the ranks of MSU football season ticket holders) shouldn't be too shocked when some of that money (or even just some externally-generated money) starts to show up in the hands of the athletes making it possible. Never mind whether the athletes "deserve" it or whether the current uses of the funds are worthy, the current arrangement is simply not economically sustainable.

So, before this piece spins further out of control, I'll sum up: May is not the time to talk about college sports. (And, on the bright side, this commentary on NCAA transfer policies came with more than one sentence per paragraph.)

Michigan State Continues to Watch Chicago Guard Sterling Brown

2012-05-10T18:00:00Z

Sterling Brown #1 (via bookiester)

Talking about Sterling Brown and adding him to the 2013 Hotlist is probably overdue. As Jim Comparoni reminded everyone last week, Michigan State coaches have been keeping an eye on this younger brother of former Spartan guard Shannon Brown. It’s not hard for Coach Izzo and staff to see a lot of Brown as he plays alongside prime targets Jahlil Okafor and Jabari Parker for the Mac Irvin Fire 17u squad. It’s this shared attention that brought Travis Trice to MSU and is also part of why Jabari Parker is publicly committed to keeping his recruitment open through the summer. Parker has expressed interest in doing is part for his high school and AAU teammates by increasing their exposure to numerous coaches.

This sort of sustained attention is great for late risers like Brown. Though considered a solid prospect for a long time, the number of offers to Brown and the caliber of interested programs have increased as he approaches his senior year. Big Ten invitations from Nebraska, Northwestern, and Illinois (under Bruce Weber) have already come in and Minnesota is the latest team to offer. In addition to Michigan State, Xavier, Providence, Marquette, and others are said to be watching him. That list doesn’t include all the other coaches who might catch Brown or pass a positive word around after reviewing other prospects during AAU.

More after the jump...

Perhaps the start of Brown’s rise was the end of his junior season when he led Proviso East to the state championship game against Jabari Parker’s Simeon team. Despite falling short in the final contest, Brown demonstrated that he belonged with the best and was judged by many to have outplayed his Simeon rival. I think one of the biggest compliments to his game is that Roy and Harv Schmidt, who know scouting Illinois hoops about as well as anyone, now rank Brown as the No. 3 player in the state for 2013, behind only Jabari Parker and Kendrick Nunn. They include some more commentary on him in this article from April. The word on Brown is that he’s a solid overall player. He defends very well at the high school level, can rebound a little, and make plays for others. He may not be as athletic as Shannon (tall order) but he is a plus-athlete. Sterling is not yet a marksman with room to grow as an outside shooter.

Even though Brown has more to prove to gain an offer from Michigan State, I think there’s a chance he could navigate himself into the right place at the right time. If you recall the 2014 Hotlist (one more shameless plug!), the wing recruiting targets are limited. Drake Harris is the big name but there appears to be about a 50/50 chance that he ultimately decides to play football for Brady Hoke. The same narrow focus is true for ’13. Right now, the most attention is being given to Jabari Parker (probably a college PF) and James Young, a true wing. With Young’s odds of going Green looking smaller with each look from Kentuck, Tom Izzo could find himself in the rare position of being behind on his main wing recruits for both 2013 and 2014. If Coach Izzo doesn’t like the looks of those odds, he may be in the market for a single guard to provide depth after the wing-heavy preceding classes. If he continues on this pace of attention-grabbing and development, Sterling Brown could be that guy. He’s called MSU his "dream school" and has taken it constructively as a challenge to get more attention from Coach Izzo.

My bet is still against Brown joining his brother as part of the Spartan family but there’s enough attention and swinging dominoes that it’s worth noting as a possibility. Things will only get clearer this summer as coaches go out later for further evaluations. Rising juniors will start thinking seriously about early decisions and seniors will prepare for their official visits. Sterling Brown could benefit from things bouncing his way.

DeAnthony Arnett waits, while the NCAA plays doctor

2012-05-10T14:45:46Z

At NCAA headquarters

UPDATE: All clear. Great blogger reverse jinx success! Question stands.

DeAnthony Arnett announced he was transferring to Michigan State to be closer to his ill father four months ago, indicating intent to seek a waiver to play for MSU immediately at that time.

The formal application for that wavier was submitted a full two months ago, with the expectation that an NCAA ruling would take about three weeks.

Intelligent (and unbiased) observers noted the ludicrousness of how long it was taking the NCAA rule to on the request over a month ago.

Two weeks ago, we heard this:

"I have to send more transcripts from my dialysis doctor to the NCAA," William Arnett said. "I had sent all my transcripts to Tennessee, but the NCAA wants more from me. We'll do that this week.

"Right now, this isn't about DeAnthony. It's all about me."

According to William Arnett, he will be put on a kidney transplant waiting list after he has his blood tested this week.

"They need to get my blood and DNA so they can get a match," William Arnett said. "I had surgery for a catheter in my shoulder, so I go to dialysis Monday, Wednesday and Friday. If it weren't for dialysis, I wouldn't be alive today."

Arnett has also had heart surgery and remains on medication.

"It was hard last year, being sick and in the hospital," William Arnett said. "I planned on seeing my son play. I wanted to see my son play. But I was in the hospital and sick, and I couldn't be in a car eight hours to see him play at Tennessee.

"I had to do what my doctor told me to do."

Now this:

Nope. NCAA has asked for more medical info twice in past three weeks. RT @Shawn__Edward @joerexrode any update on deanthony arnett?
— Joe Rexrode (@joerexrode) May 10, 2012

Set aside the broader debate about the restrictions the NCAA puts on "student-athletes" while coaches and administrators are free to pursue their own personal self interest: What exactly is the delay here in interpreting a simple rule already on the NCAA books? Is the NCAA afraid the elder Arnett's doctors are lying about the nature of his medical condition? Do they have their own team of medical experts poring over the data to look for discrepancies and perhaps find that Mr. Arnett is, in fact, perfectly healthy and could easily have traveled to Knoxville eight times this fall?

If the NCAA really possesses this level of medical expertise, I can only hope they will be providing recommendations to Mr. Arnett for improved treatment options.

Football 'Crootin Roundup Is Already Committed, But Still Impressing

2012-05-09T14:00:20Z

(Note, if you didn't see, I did a Q&A on MSU football recruiting over at Black Show Diaries. Check it out.)

Michigan Football Recruiting had some really interesting data from this year's NFL Draft. In rounds 1-3, there were seven players drafted who were given five stars out of high school, compared to 16 players given two stars or fewer. Yes, there are fewer five stars than two stars, but the point is that there really are a ton of "diamonds in the rough." We know how five of MSU's six draft picks were given three stars or fewer.

Of course you want to bring in the best players. But if you can't, finding those lower-ranked players who can develop is extremely important. That's what MSU has done under Mark Dantonio. That's why MSU is not going away despite Michigan's dominance in Midwest recruiting (see the Q&A). It's not luck that Trenton Robinson went from a two-star prospect to an NFL Draft pick. It's coaching, and it's recruiting the right type of player. There are plenty of good football players to be had, and there always have been.

Not a ton of news regarding MSU targets over the last week. However, some players who have already committed to MSU are racking up some honors prior to their senior seasons.

QB commit Damion Terry participated in the Elite 11 tryout in Columbus over the weekend and was impressive, by all accounts. He probably won't get invited to the Elite 11 camp, but he showed a lot of upside and showed why bigger schools came calling not long after his commitment to MSU.

@SpartansOrDie He did very well. Very consistent and accurate. Maybe not a huge arm, but he's going to fill out a lot more and get stronger.
— Allen Trieu (@AllenTrieu) May 5, 2012

Here is a Scout rundown of each player at the tryout. Scout also has a video interview with Terry. Rivals has one as well. In the videos, Terry says other schools have expressed interest in him, but his school emphasizes loyalty and his commitment to MSU will not change. He also continues to recruit his high school teammate, safety/athlete Delton Williams, to come to MSU (more on that below).

Shane Jones and Jon Reschke nominated for U.S. Army All-American Bowl (MLive) - The headline kind of explains the whole thing (Hooray for SEO!). The linebacking pair were nominated because they were rated among the top 400 rising high school seniors.

NFTC Columbus: Defensive recap (Scout) - At the Nike Football Training Camp last weekend, Reschke was one of the top performers at linebacker.

Michigan State commit Jon Reschke did very well. He's added muscle and is actually moving even better with the added weight. He did a nice job in the pass rush drill too, and as a former defensive end, that is his forte.

OL commit Caleb Benenoch has received a lot of interest some some big SEC and Big 12 schools, leading some to question how strong his commitment is to MSU. Spartan Tailgate reports that Texas Tech promised Benenoch he would start as a freshman. One thing MSU has that many of those other schools don't is winter.

This dang heat is reminding me why I picked #MSU
— Caleb Benenoch (@CalebBenenoch79) May 7, 2012

Benenoch said he was visited by MSU OL coach Mark Staten and WR coach Terrance Samuel on Monday.

Ready to put on a show for coach Statem and coach Samuel today at practice #leggo
— Caleb Benenoch (@CalebBenenoch79) May 7, 2012

It's gonna be a little Awk with coach Sam and coach Staten there with all those other coaches lol
— Caleb Benenoch (@CalebBenenoch79) May 7, 2012

I wasn't sure what to make of this. Possible he meant the other coaches recruiting him? That would, indeed, be awkward.

Williams: Will Spartans' lead hold? (24/7) - As mentioned above, Damion Terry continues to recruit his friend Delton Williams. But now there is a new team involved. Ohio State expressed interest in Williams, who called the Buckeyes his "dream school" growing up. Williams admitted that MSU is at the top of his list, but an OSU offer "could change things." He still is set to visit Nebraska and possibly Penn State. MSU thought it could get a talented player before his stock rose, but now things will be very difficult.

'I love their defense' (24/7) - Needing to add some defensive tackles to the 2013 class, MSU is sitting well with four-star Massachusets DT Maurice Hurst Jr. Pat Narduzzi visited Hurst last month and the tackle said MSU is one of the schools recruiting him the hardest. He wouldn't visit MSU until the summer at the earliest, but this is a key player to watch.

Three-star Ohio LB Christopher Worley also performed at the Nike camp. Worley was recently offered by MSU. From Scout:

"My two newest offers are from Pittsburgh and Michigan State," he explained. "I like Michigan State and think a lot of that program, from the academics to the football part. Their coaches are all good guys, and that's a school I'm interested in. I've never been there yet, but plan on visiting there."

Robbins talks Spartan visit (Rivals) - Looking back to the Spring Game, three-star Maryland defensive end Kevin Robbins continues to have high interest in MSU. Robbins' father played at MSU, so he has been very familiar with the Green and White. Robbins will likely visit again in the summer, as he doesn't appear to be close to a decision any time soon.

MSU offers Bellamy - MSU continues to recruit Georgia hard, becoming the 17th offer for three-star defensive end Davin Bellamy. Other notable teams to offer include Georgia Tech, Virginia and Arkansas.

Chamblee (Ga) DE Davin Bellamy got offered by MichiganSt
— Michael Carvell (@RecruitingAJC) May 8, 2012

2014 offensive lineman George Panos knows where he's going, and he won't let anyone change his mind.

#MichiganState & #Northwestern dropped in on #Wisconsin commit George Panos & #Alabama invited him to camp but he says he's all #Badger
— Allen Trieu (@AllenTrieu) May 1, 2012

Hayes picks up second offer (Scout) - 2014 Traverse City offensive lineman Connor Hayes recently picked up an offer from Western Michigan, joining Central Michigan as his current offers. In June, Hayes says he will camp at MSU and Michigan, among others.

Arizona first to offer Michigan lineman (Rivals) - 2013 Detroit Catholic Central offensive guard Derek Edwards picked up his first BCS offer, coming from former U-M coach Rich Rodriguez. Edwards has been working out with former U-M strength coach Mike Barwis, which is why Arizona is so involved. He also has MAC offers. Outside of the four offers, Edwards says MSU is one of the most-interested teams. He plans to attend an MSU camp in the summer, hoping to earn an offer.

Yellow Flag Wavin': Know Your Team's Penalty Attitude

2012-05-09T05:12:59Z

Note: The names of these categories and the statistical data led to some teams being placed in LOLarious categories compared to their overall football reputations. "Nick $atan and Alabama ain't that clean, PAAWWWWLLLL!" is a perfectly acceptable response to these sorts of contradictions. Because stats are blind, descriptions of how these teams play are also a bit touch and go.

In a sports statistics world further and further geared towards the concept of efficiency, I've wondered for a while why no one really took the time to get into some hot 'yards per penalty' action. Like, one 15 yard penalty and three 5 yard penalties are are identical statistically (in terms of yardage), but are different functionally (some notable differences: three 5 yard penalties means more free plays or dead ball fouls, whereas a 15 yard penalty is usually much more violent and is usually a free 1st down no matter what the down and distance). And sort of like Yards Per Carry or Yards Per Attempt, the average yardage differences can be much less impressive sounding than the total yardage differences to the layperson's ear. Or, maybe no one gives a crap. But now you must suffer in a efficient-less penalty world no longer. Now in four easy categories, you too can find your team's place in this yellow flagged life. All teams are from the 2011-2012 season

The 'Innocents'

These teams hardly ever commit penalties, and when they do, they mostly stick to ticky tack, 5 or 10 yard stuff. Penalties give free yardage, and, in some cases, free plays (QBs can use a defensive off-sides to throw a deep ball without worrying about it getting picked off). These teams are much too polite to try too many of the game's unsporting tricks, and would much prefer to keep those yellow flags nice and clean in the ref's pocket.

Or, maybe they are just bribing referees.

Examples- North Carolina (4.6 penalties per game, 33.8 penalty yards per game, 7.3 yards per penalty), Alabama (3.8 penalties per game, 28.4 penalty yards per game, 7.5 yards per penalty), Kansas State (4.7 penalties per game, 35.8 penalty yards per game, 7.6 yards per penalty), Ball State (4.5 penalties per game, 35.5 penalty yards per game, 7.9 yards per penalty), Iowa (4.8 penalties per game, 35.6 penalty yards per game, 7.4 yards per penalty)

The other three categories, and the Big Ten team's placements, after the jump...

The 'Bad Boys'

These guys get whistled for a billion penalties and will commit a 15 yard penalty whenever they feel like it, because what are YOU gonna do about it? Penalty yardage will always stay the same, while their ability to frustrate and disrupt your normal offense more than makes up for the free yardage.The other team will have to earn every inch, and hey, the refs can't call EVERYTHING right?

Or, maybe they are just terribly undisciplined.

Examples- Arizona State (8 penalties per game, 79.8 penalty yards per game, 10 yards per penalty. Vontaze Burfict ladies and gentlemen!), Oregon, (7.2 penalties per game, 65 penalty yards, 9.0 yards per penalty), Cal (7.5 penalties per game, 72.4 penalty yards per game, 9.7 yards per penalty), Texas A&M (7 penalties per game, 65.8 penalty yards per game, 9.4 yards per penalty) Indiana (6.9 penalties per game, 64.7 penalty yards per game, 9.4 yards per penalty)

The 'Small Timers'

These guys will commit a ton of small fouls and test the refs willingness to enforce the rules, (off-sides, false start, holding) but stay away from bigger personal fouls or automatic first downs. This approach still adds up to a good amount of penalty yardage, but it's given out in smaller chunks across more plays. Committing so many small fouls can make refs eventually start missing or ignoring your penalties. After all, it's just a little false start.

Or, maybe their linemen just can't time the snap right on either side of the ball.

Examples: Florida (7.7 penalties per game, 59.5 penalty yards per game, 7.7 yards per penalty), Rutgers (6.8 penalties per game44.7 penalty yards per game, 6.6 yards per penalty), New Mexico (6.8 penalties per game, 48.5 penalty yards per game, 7.1 yards per penalty), Iowa State (6.8 penalties per game, 52.3 penalty yards per game, 7.7 yards per penalty) Michigan State (6.8 penalties per game, 55.4 penalty yards per game, 8.1 yards per penalty)

'The 'Professional Foulers'

In for a penny, in for a pound. Like a soccer defender hauling down a forward heading towards an open net, these teams are willing to commit a big penalty to stop a bigger play. Their linemen will hold you to keep you from blindsiding the QB, their defensive backs will interfere with receivers about to beat them over the top. They rarely will get assessed penalties, and will commit less of what they see as 'unnecessary' small fouls, preferring to save up their 'bad play allowance' for just a few plays, when they can hopefully negate a big gain for your team.

Or, maybe they just pick random times to act really stupid, just for funsies.

Examples- San Jose State (3.3 penalties per game, 31.5 penalty yards per game, 9.9 yards per penalty), Central Michigan (4.7 penalties per game, 46.7 penalty yards per game, 9.9 yards per penalty), Clemson (4.4 penalties per game, 40.1 penalty yards per game, 9.1 yards per penalty), Oklahoma (4.9 penalties per game, 44.8 penalty yards per game, 9.1 yards per penalty), Northwestern (4.3 penalties per game, 37.8 penalty yards per game, 8.8 yards per penalty)

Big Ten penalty numbers from 2011-2012:

Team	Penalties per game	Penalty yards per game	Yards per penalty
Iowa	4.8	35.6	7.4
Nebraska	6.6	52.9	8.0
Wisconsin	4.8	38.9	8.1
Purdue	7.4	60.2	8.1
Michigan State	6.8	55.4	8.1
Ohio State	5.4	44	8.1
Michigan	4.1	35.2	8.6
Illinois	4.9	42.2	8.6
Minnesota	5.7	49.4	8.7
Penn State	5	43.5	8.7
Northwestern	4.3	37.8	8.8
Indiana	6.9	64.7	9.4

Innocents- Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State

Bad Boys- Indiana, Purdue

Small Timers- Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska

Professional Foulers- Northwestern, Michigan, Penn State, Illinois

That seems like a pretty good breakdown to me. I could understand arguments to swap Purdue and MSU, or leave Indiana by itself, or move OSU etc. The smaller set of teams you get, the less difference there is between them, and the smaller chance you have of seeing perfect fits into these categories. Maybe I need one more category for 'Average Joes' or something. Anyways, here's to giving your team's stupidest mistakes some time in the limelight!

Talking Recruiting With Black Shoe Diaries

2012-05-07T22:50:13Z

Talking Recruiting With Black Shoe Diaries

I did a Q&A with Black Shoe Diaries regarding MSU football recruiting. BSD is SB Nation's Penn State site. Apparently Penn State fans don't remember Eric Gordon.

To Win the Big Ten, Rule the Skies

2012-05-07T03:17:37Z

I was pretty sure I'd written about this topic last year, but searches through the archives seemed to reveal I had not. Enjoy.

If there is any single piece of conventional wisdom about how to be successful in Big Ten football, that pops up more than any other, it probably is this: You must be able to stop the run, and you must be able to run the football. Just like Duffy, Schembechler and Woody; and Alvarez, Paterno, Carr, and Tressel did. But don't take my word for it. Here's a handful of coaches new and old, fired and not fired, offensive and defensive, spread and pro-style, all converging around the same talking point: You win the Big Ten by being got-dang tough in the trenches, running the ball, and stopping the other team from running the ball.

"...We have to run the football to be successful... If you look at our 13-3 mark... the three games that we were unable to run the football... were the three games we lost."
-Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio

"I think first and foremost, you've got to be able to run the football to be successful in college football."
-OSU offensive coordinator Tom Herman

"We want to run the football... When you [run the football well] you can determine the time of possession and determine a lot of things in a football game."
-Michigan head coach Brady Hoke

"Contain Monte Ball, key to victory. We've got to stop the run."
-Mark Dantonio

"To win [the big ten] conference, your defense had better be extremely tough and hard-nosed in its ability to stop the run."
-former Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster

"The core of [the big ten] stays the same, it's still the run first, defensive mentality, the toughness..."
-Penn State cornerbacks coach Devin Butler

"we have to do a better job against the run. You can’t play good defense if you can’t stop the run."

-Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz

“We have to go into every game thinking we can run the football; that’s where the game is won,’’

-Former Ohio State head coach Luke Fickell

"I can just talk to our philosophy... We're obviously going to try to limit how much people can run the football against us. I don't care if we're facing a team that throws a football 70 times a game, they're not going to run the football on us..."

-Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema

Man, you can just feel the grittiness emanating off of your computer screen. No wussy ball in the Big Ten, that's what led to the firings of numerous coaches over the past decade: JLS, Rodriguez, Brewster, Lynch, and Zook, right?

Except, here's the thing: all that stuff above is wrong. Wait, that's too strong: rather, it's focused on sub-optimal strategy. Rushing offense and defense don't matter nearly as much as everyone thinks they do in the Big Ten. Nor particularly does, 'establishing the run' or 'running to set up the pass'. There is one stat, that, if you can get really high marks at it on both sides of the ball, you are nearly guaranteed success. One stat that really matters, and, interestingly enough, it's sort of a weird one. An ugly duckling of the stats world: Passer Rating. Or as a popular 'advanced football statistics' author put it to Sports Illustrated:

"Passing rating differential is the most important stat in football."
-Kevin Byrne, Cold Hard Football Facts

Backing up that substantial claim, after the jump...

What the heck is passer rating again?

Passer rating is a system of measuring quarterback play and passing offenses by taking into account several QB statistics and dropping them into a weighted formula that spits out a total score. Here's the NCAA formula for Passer Rating:

Passer rating = (Yards*8.4)+(Touchdowns*330) +(completions*100)-(INTs*200)/Attempts

According to Wikipedia (and I'm willing to trust their math here): "the NCAA passer rating has an upper limit of 1,261.6 (every attempt is a 99-yard completion for touchdown), and a lower limit of -731.6 (every attempt is completed, but results in a 99-yard loss)"

A team has both an offensive and defensive passer rating. To get the Net Passer Rating, or the Passer Rating Differential, you simply subtract the defensive number, from the offensive number. So, if your offensive passer rating is higher than your defensive passer rating, you'll have a positive number (that's good!). If your defensive passer rating is higher than your offensive passer rating, you'll have a negative number (that's bad!). But a bad passer rating comes with a free cup of fro-gurt (that's good!) The fro-gurt contains potassium benzoate (... ... ...). That's bad.

Oh yeah. Isn't passing rating a totally stupid stat, like RBIs?

Well...

Like, so stupid that when ESPN came up with their own rating system, people were like, "That's stupid, but at least it's still smarter than Passer Rating."

I mean, yes, Passer Rating is kind of dumb. Categories are weighted pretty arbitrarily, small sample sizes can totally screw everything up, and you can get really weird results where someone has a high Passer rating but totally fails the 'eye test' or the other way around. I don't pretend to really understand why they decided on those specific numbers and factors in the equation.

And yet, this weird Frankenstein stat is really, really, good at predicting football excellence, even in the supposedly run heavy Big Ten.

How good?

Well, in the Big ten, net passer rating values compared against a teams wins, or what CHFF calls Passer Rating Differential, gives a correlation rate in the high .8's (depending on how much data you input). This is a stronger correlation towards winning than Net Big Plays (a pretty good predictor of success itself), and a stronger correlation than rushing yards, or passing yards, or total offense, total defense, scoring offense, or scoring defense; any of the usual suspects, really. In other words, you show me a team with a high Net Passer Rating, and I'll show you a team that has a better chance of racking up victories and championships than a team with a high scoring or high yardage offense, or a low scoring or low yardage defense. And it's fairly easy to calculate.

Net Passer Rating provides firm evidence that Big Ten games are not won on the ground, but through the air.

Got any proof for that?

Sure. There's this post, which after analyzing the last 71 NFL champions found that:

-An incredible 69 of them registered on the plus side of Passer Rating Differential.

-56 were +10 or better in Passer Rating Differential.

-46 were +20 or better in Passer Rating Differential.

-The average NFL champion over the long haul of 71 years was +27.4 in Passer Rating Differential.

And this post, which found further strong relationships between NFL success and Passer Rating Differential.

Yeah, but that's all NFL stuff. And besides, the NFL formula is different than the NCAA formula. How do I know that those insights carry over, especially to the Big Ten?

Cause I got some mighty fine data. Spreadsheet time:

2011 Big Ten Season
Teams	Off PR	Def PR	Net	Wins
Wisconsin	186.2	120.45	65.75	11
Michigan State	144.29	113.24	31.05	11
Michigan	139.18	120.48	18.7	11
Northwestern	155.88	139.99	15.89	6
Illinois	123.52	117.91	5.61	7
Nebraska	125.78	120.42	5.36	9
Iowa	136.62	132.87	3.75	7
Ohio State	127.8	126.75	1.05	6
Purdue	122.81	126.05	-3.24	7
Penn State	101.95	107.2	-5.25	9
Minnesota	108.97	148.81	-39.84	3
Indiana	111.91	156.79	-44.88	1

-In the top tier, you have three teams who clearly separated themselves from the pack with their net ratings at 1, 2, and 3 (including the BTCCG participants at a clear 1-2), as well as an outlier at 4, Northwestern, who let several games slip away late.

-in the middle tier, you have the middle class of the Big Ten in 2011, plus Nebraska, all clumped within 4 net points of each other, very far away from the best and worst teams in the conference.

-then in the bottom tier, you have the only four teams with negative Passer Rating Differentials, with Purdue and Penn State (the other outlier) chilling a handful of points below zero, and the two obvious worst teams in the Big Ten, Minnesota and Indiana, both sporting truly terrible PRDs.

In all, in 2011, there was a very strong .85 correlation between a teams PRD and its total wins. Correlation is not causation and all that but still, .85 yo.

Wait a minute, doesn't a great running game set up a great passing game?

Sure, it can, but this analysis seems to indicate that doesn't matter as much. If you have a great running offense awesome, and if your defense can really stuff the run, that's cool too. But you don't necessarily need either of those things, whereas according to the data I've looked at, if you want to win a Big Ten title and don't have a great passing game, or passing defense, or combination of the two, you can basically forget about it.

So does this mean everyone should switch to the airraid on offense and pass almost every down, and play 3-2-6 on defense and really try to shut down the pass?

No, no, no. Wisconsin and MSU both had really strong years operating out of fairly standard pro-style offenses and 4-3 defenses. Because Passer Rating is a efficiency measure and not a raw statistic, if you can throw 4 touchdowns in 20 attempts, that's just as successful as throwing 100 touchdowns on 500 attempts. Obviously, you'll probably want to find a balance somewhere in between those numbers of attempts, but a highly efficient passing game is highly efficient regardless of how much you throw it. Same goes for the defensive side of the ball.

Are we sure coaches aren't just throwing red meat to the fanbases? They know this stuff already, right?

Yeah, could be. But even if they're just playing into long time expectations of Midwestern football to be a tough, mauling, showdown (the oft caricatured 'three yards and a cloud of dust'), you've got to think that part of it is still old-school, coach programming. Almost every BT team makes it a vocal goal to stop and emphasize the run.

My name's KJ, and I love scatterplots!

Great! Here's that table plotted and scattered (Sorry for blurriness and small text. I'll try to upload a better version in a bit. The closer you get to the bottom-right corner, the better you are. The closer you get to the top-left corner, the worse you are:

Small sample size! Small sample size! 12 data points is way too small of a sample size!

True, which is why I went back and looked over the data in the Big Ten from 2007-2011, to get up to 56 data points. And, you'll have to take my word for this right now, because this is the content of another post, but the correlation gets stronger, not weaker, as you add more data. It's pretty legit.

Make predictions, sound smart, amaze your friends!

If you're looking for a good prediction to win the Big Ten, don't look at bruising run games, or tackle machine linebacking corps. Look first for efficient passing games, and efficient passing defenses. No matter what you've heard from coaches, analysts, and fans for decades now, in the modern Big Ten, if you want to find the next likely champ, look to the skies.

Football 'Crootin Roundup Won't Be Offering Sparty A Roster Spot

2012-05-02T18:11:29Z

(Note 1: If you haven't seen, MSU picked up a JC tight end for the 2012 class)

(Note 2: It appears 24/7 has been having some account issues, so I was unable to get any of their stuff for this roundup. MGoBlog had the same issue)

The Spring Game came and went without much excitement on the field, unless you count Sparty's rush attempt and fumble. But there was some excitement off the field as MSU hosted a number of top recruits. With spring camps over and current players leaving campus, recruiting might slow down a bit. Here's a look at how things went last weekend.

Williams to decide soon (Rivals) - Since MSU received the commitment of Erie (Pa.) quarterback Damion Terry, people have been waiting for his high school teammate, safety/athlete Delton Williams. Well, Williams told Rivals on Monday that he could be committing any day now. MSU would appear to be in the lead for Williams, who wouldn't tip his hand.

"(Terry was) a real big factor. You will probably find out how big of a factor here soon. I'm not trying to say too much because I don't want to say it and not do it, but I want to give you a heads-up it's possible in the next couple days."

Nation's No. 1 DT enjoys Michigan State (Rivals) - MSU has recruited Georgia quite a bit over the past few years, with Darqueze Dennard starting last year and Keith Mumphrey expected to be major contributor this year. Montravius Adams, the top defensive tackle in the Class of 2013, made the trip up to East Lansing for the Spring Game at the request of his former high school teammate Mumphrey.

"I had a good time. I really liked that Michigan State is a family-based school."

Adams said he probably won't make a decision until after his senior season. With USC and basically the entire SEC vying for him, it will be extremely difficult for MSU to get a commitment from him, but getting such a highly-ranked southern prospect up to East Lansing is something thing MSU wouldn't have been able to do a few years ago.

Still, you can dream.

Benenoch has new suitors (Scout) - MSU OT commit Caleb Benenoch is starting to pull in new offers, notably Arizona State, Purdue and Oklahoma State, the last of which has told Benenoch he could play guard. As his stock rises and more offers come in, it could be difficult for MSU to hold on to him. This will certainly be something to watch.

Warfield talks Spartan visit (Rivals) - Ohio defensive back Solomon Warfield was able to spend time with MSU's 2013 commits at the Spring Game. Warfield received an MSU offer during a visit a few weeks ago. The Spartans aren't taking many defensive backs in the class, so while Warfield doesn't have a timetable for a decision, MSU has offers out to other defensive backs so the spots could fill at any time.

Banks makes return trip to East Lansing (Rivals) - Illinois defensive back Jalen Banks took his last school visit for a while when he attended the Spring Game. The three-star prospect's stock has been on the rise, and it appears Banks won't be making a decision for a while, waiting for more offers. But when he does make a decision, MSU should have a decent chance at landing him.

"I haven't put rankings together yet, but I know when I narrow things down they are going to be there," Banks said. They are a great school, good football team and good academics. I am definitely considering them."

Miller comfortable at MSU (Scout) - Three-star Toledo offensive guard Matt Miller was able to make it up to East Lansing for the game after previously be unsure if he'd make it. Miller has offers from Miami (Fl.), Purdue, Illinois and others. His trip to MSU will be his last visit for a while. He doesn't have a timetable for a decision, but his day in East Lansing solidified his view of MSU.

"I can't really say it answered any questions with me. I'm pretty familiar up there and comfortable and it definitely raised my opinion a little bit. It's definitely good to see them and they looked good."

Top OT to camp at MSU (Rivals) - A Cass Tech player coming to MSU normally seems ridiculous. But with Michigan already stocked with top offensive line talent, tackle Dennis Finley is working his way up the rankings. Finley currently has offers from Purdue, Illinois and the in-state MAC schools, among others. He attended the Spring Game and said he would attend an MSU camp, which will be a good opportunity to earn an offer from the Spartans. His sister currently attends MSU and if the Spartans offer, they would be in a great position.

"Michigan State would definitely be one of the top schools that I would be interested in if I had an offer," Finley said. "School-wise, I am looking for good academics and the academic-support program. As for football, I am looking for a good atmosphere where the players and coaches get along and it is like a family."

Bullough keeping all options open (Scout) - Yep, there's another Bullough brother. This is the last one. While rising junior Max and incoming freshman Riley didn't sway away from the family's MSU legacy, 2014 defensive back Byron is going to keep all his options open. Max and Riley did the same thing, but both were the first commitment in their respective classes. With it so early in the 2014 recruiting cycle, Byron is willing to listen to everyone, including the Maize and Blue.

"I would definitely look at Michigan. They're obviously a storied program and I don't have any offers, so I'm willing to look at anyone who has interest in me."

In-state schools coming for Stewart (Scout) - Sturgis (Mich.) quarterback Chance Stewart will be one of the state's top prospects in 2014. Stewart attended the Spring Game and both MSU and U-M were set to visit him on Tuesday.

Snodgrass updates Spartans visit (Scout) - 2014 Ohio receiver Thaddeus Snodgrass enjoyed his time at the Spring Game and said he would attend MSU's camp in June, to go with a Nike camp next week and West Virginia's camp un June. Snodgrass liked what he saw in East Lansing.

"I was able to look around the campus a little bit," said Snodgrass. "I liked what I saw and really liked the football facilities and the area they have all their football championships in. I also couldn’t believe how big their weight room was."