The Only Colors

Thrive then Survive: Michigan State 70, New Mexico State 67

2010-03-20T05:16:49Z

Onward and forward.

What a lovely first half: Michigan State built a 42-29 lead by knocking down 3-pointers (6-13) against a stunningly passive New Mexico State zone defense while preventing New Mexico State to get any kind of easy looks near the basket on the other end (6-19 two-point shooting). MSU got a big half from a previously-slumping Kalin Lucas (14 points) and offensive contributions from two supporting players who'd been off the radar of late (Durrell Summers with 12 and Delvon Roe with 6). Despite not having any points from Draymond Green, Raymar Morgan, and Chris Allen, the game had the look of a walk over for the Spartans at halftime.

Then the New Mexico State offense showed up. Over the first 9 minutes of the second half, the Aggies scored 26 points to MSU's 12, giving New Mexico State a one-point lead with 11 minutes to go. To a large degree you have to credit the Aggie players, who made a series of difficult contested shots both in the post and beyond the arc.

On the other end, the Aggies shifted to a much more aggressive defensive approach. That didn't result in MSU turnovers (amazingly, just 2 turnovers in the second half for the Spartans). But it did knock the MSU players out of their rhythm, causing them to take a number of ill-advised shots. Summers was perhaps the main culprit, forcing some shots and finishing just 5-15 from the field after having hit his first 4 shots of the game.

From the 11-minute mark on, it was nip and tuck. Neither team led by more than 2 points until Raymar Morgan's put-back dunk gave MSU a 4-point lead with 1:54 to go. A tweaked ankle for Kalin Lucas and some sort of foot injury for Chris Allen (looks like things are OK) created additional Spartan duress.

Morgan emerged from a foul-plagued existence over the game's first 34 minutes to score 7 of MSU's final 11 points. He procured an offensive rebound in traffic and then knocked down a 16-foot jumper to retie the game at 61 with just under 6 minutes to go. He had the dunk off a missed 3-point shot by Summers to create the 4-point lead with 2 minutes to go. And he knocked down two free throws to get the lead back up to 3 in the final 20 seconds (aided by a New Mexico State lane violation that I have opined on elsewhere and Seth Davis has added further clarity to).

Over the course of the full game, most of the numbers came out even. The exception is free throw rate. MSU used its proclivity for drawing contact to get to the line 33 times (led by Lucas with 12 attempts) and managed to make just enough of them, 23, to squeeze out the win.

College Basketball

The failure to win the rebounding battle is disappointing, but the low turnover percentage is encouraging (Allen, Summers, and Lucious combined for nary a turnover). Surprisingly, this game featured only 63 possessions; offense trumped defense, bucking the recent trend for MSU.

I"ve hit on the major contributions from most of the big-minute guys. Quick hits on players I haven't mentioned yet:

Draymond Green went scoreless from the field, but hit two key free throws late in the game and made big contributions elsewhere: 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks. 6 of Green's 10 defensive rebounds came in the final 6 minutes of the game.
Derrick Nix had TWO MADE FREE THROWS! IN A ROW!
Garrick Sherman chipped in 2 points and 4 rebounds in 9 minutes.
Austin Thornton had a terrific little spell there in the first half: 3-point make plus 3 rebounds in 4 minutes.
Mike Kebler came in late; he did a really nice job closing out on New Mexico State's final 3-point attempt, getting a hand up but not risking a foul.

All in all, I think I'm actually somewhat encouraged by this performance, despite the narrow margin of victory. Just about every player did something positive tonight. The team got a little frazzled in the second half, but didn't panic down the stretch. They put the clamps down defensively when they had to, holding New Mexico State without a field goal for an 8-minute stretch prior to Troy Gillenwater's 3-pointer with 20 seconds left (capping a 17-point, 11-rebound performance for Gillenwater).

The trio of Lucas, Green, and Morgan gives this team a good shot at winning any game that's close down the stretch. If the supporting cast can build on this performance, MSU will have an opportunity to extend the 2009-2010 basketball season at least one more week. The margin for error is going to narrow considerably, though.

Next up: The Maryland Terrapins, Sunday afternoon (2:40 ET). Maryland advanced with an 89-77 win over Houston tonight. Forward Jordan Williams led the way with 21 points and 17 rebounds against the smaller Houston lineup. Greivis Vasquez had 16 points and 6 assists. More on the Terrapins tomorrow.

P.S. I assume Jahmar Young (13 points on 4-11 FG shooting and a DQ) knows who Kalin Lucas (25 points on 7-11 FG shooting) is now.

P.P.S. Scoring for the nontraditional bracket contest through the first round is here, courtesy of Spartan Dan.

MICHIGAN STATE 70, NEW MEXICO STATE 67: AFTERGLOW THREAD

2010-03-20T02:11:16Z

More photos » Rajah Bose - AP

about 14 hours ago: Michigan State's Durrell Summers hangs on the rim after a dunk as New Mexico State's Troy Gillenwater, right, caches the ball in the second half of an NCAA first-round college basketball game in Spokane, Wash., Friday, March 19, 2010. (AP Photo/Rajah Bose)

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Truly a game of two halves, as Your Spartans dominated the first twenty minutes and then were blitzed by scorching-hot Aggie shooting in the second frame. Somehow (read: great play down the stretch by Raymar Morgan, key points from Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers, and improved defense), we ended up with the victory . . . barely. It may have come at some cost, though: Chris Allen appeared to re-injure his foot, and it wouldn't be a surprise to not have his services for the rest of the way -- however long that may be

In any event, we survived and advanced, as they say, though the thousands of mini-heart attacks along the way weren't exactly fun. Next up: Maryland or Houston, on Sunday. Until then, here's your celebration-ish thread, and it doubles as open thread for tonight's remaining games. GO STATE!

Game Thread: Spartans vs. Aggies

2010-03-19T22:30:18Z

Don Ryan - AP

The opposition.

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On the banks of the Red Cedar . . .

Flintstones Links: A roundup of coverage of the 10-year anniversary of Michigan State's national title

2010-03-19T21:50:54Z

Flintstones Links: A roundup of coverage of the 10-year anniversary of Michigan State's national title

Pregame reading: A look back at what transpired for the men in green and white 10 years ago.

NCAA Tournament Day Two Open Thread

2010-03-19T15:16:36Z

Well, today's probably not going to top yesterday in terms of excitement, but there's still 16 games to be played, not to mention MSU-New Mexico State. If you want to watch the games online, the widget below will launch CBS's player:

Just click on the game you want to see, and if CBS isn't showing it in your area, you'll be able to watch it. Here's the link if you want a larger version of the player in another window: Launch Player

There'll most likely be a separate game thread for the Michigan State game. As for now, sit back and enjoy!

"Aggies" is SO 1925*: Michigan State-New Mexico State Preview

2010-03-19T03:49:08Z

More photos » Don Ryan - AP

This man likes this month.

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*Reference

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES
OPENING ROUND, NCAA TOURNAMENT
SPOKANE VETERANS MEMORIAL, SPOKANE, WASHINGTON

7:20 P.M. (ET), FRIDAY
TV: CBS (Tim Brando, Mike Gminski)
ONLINE RADIO FEED: WJR
ENEMY SITE: Bleed Crimson

LVS did most of the heavy lifting for us earlier this week. Lengthy excerpt:

Let's do this bullet-style:

22-11 (11-5). WAC tournament champions; 2nd place in the regular season, behind Utah State. Ranked 115 nationally by KenPom.

3-5 against other NCAA Tournament teams: 11/13 lost to St. Mary's, 100-68; 11/17 lost to New Mexico, 97-87; 12/1 lost to UTEP, 79-58; 12/5 lost to New Mexico, 75-58; 12/13 beat UTEP, 87-80; 1/2 beat Utah St., 55-52; 3/6 lost to Utah St., 81-63; 3/13 beat Utah St., 69-63. Also was manhandled by a terrible UCLA team, 100-68.

Four factors analysis: 53.4 eFG (26th nationally), 17.9 TO% (48th), 30.4 OR% (254th), 38.0 FTA/FGA (160th).

They're good offensively (110.5 efficiency, 46th). They do this by shooting a ton of 3s (38.7 3PA/FGA, 49th highest), and they shoot them well -- 37.4%; they're also above-average from the line (70.1 FT%, 138th). They also like to play fast, as their adjusted tempo, 71.8, is 23rd nationally.

Happily, they're, uh, not so good on defense (104.1 efficiency, 222nd). They: 1) allow opposing teams a 51.3% eFG, on average (277th), 2) don't force many turnovers (18.7%, 267th), and 3) allow opponents to rebound a ton of their misses (34.6%, 261st).

They rely heavily on their starters (22.9% bench minutes, 321st), and 3 of their starters average more than 14 points per game: guard Jahmar Young (20.5 ppg, 54.1% eFG), guard Jonathan Gibson (17.5 ppg, 56.8% eFG), and forward Troy Gillenwater (14.4 ppg, 56.3% eFG). The other starters are forward Wendell McKines (10.8 ppg, 52.4% eFG) and center Hamidu Rahman (10.4 ppg, 56.3 eFG).

New Mexico State last appeared in the tournament in 2007, when they were a 13 seed and were bounced in the first round by Texas, 79-67.

The rebounding numbers should make you smile, as State should have a major, major, major advantage on the boards. Of course, a team that shoots as many threes as the Aggies do -- and shoots them well, as they also do -- is always dangerous. (The Aggies' offensive statistical profile surely makes John Beilein swoon.)

Subsequently, we learned there's reason to interpret the full-season numbers somewhat cautiously:

And you may as well ignore everything this team did in the first half of the season. Athletic forwards Troy Gillenwater (6-8, 234, 14.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and Wendell McKines (6-6, 224, 10.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg) joined the team in February and December, respectively, after they gained academic eligibility. This is a totally different team with those two, and a huge reason the Aggies won the WAC tourney.

With both those two players available, New Mexico State has a record of 9-3. A quick perusal of the numbers would indicate that the biggest contributions of the two new guys have been on the boards. Both Gillenwater and McKines have offensive rebounding percentage figure above 9% and defensive rebounding percentage figure above 20%. McKines come into tomorrow's game with 58 rebounds in his last 5 games. Listed at just 6'6", McKines may be a worthy foe for Draymond Green.

It would appear as though the Aggies have had increased success when the scoring load has been more evenly distributed. Leading scorer (and trash talker) Jahmar Young was held below 20 points in each of the three WAC Tournament wins. Beware sharp-shooter Johnathan Gibson (.405 3pt% for the season), who had been on a long hot streak from beyond the arc before going 0-5 in the WAC final.

Aggies head coach Marvin Menzies is a former Rick Pitino assistant. This should be a pretty up-tempo game. If the MSU players play efficiently--Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious, in particular--that should play into the Spartans' hands. New Mexico State doesn't appear to do much to force their opponents out of rhythm on offense, so it will be all about execution. The numbers indicate the Aggies play some zone, so proficient 3-point shooting and finding ways to get the ball to Green and Raymar Morgan in the lane will be part of the equation.

Defensively, Tom Izzo may extend the bench and try to use MSU's depth and athleticism to wear down the Aggies and force mistakes in terms of turnovers and bad shots. New Mexico State has a relatively tall lineup for a mid-major (7'0" center, 6'8" power forward), so Izzo shouldn't have to regularly send out small lineups (although the Lucas/Allen/Summers/Morgan/Green lineup could do some real damage in an open-court game). As with any match-up of this nature, but particularly in light of the numbers LVS detailed above, the favored Spartans will be well-advised to close out on 3-point shooters.

KenPom predicts an 83-71 MSU win in 71 possessions.

NCAA Tournament Day One Open Thread

2010-03-18T15:00:51Z

After what seems like years of waiting, one of the best days of basketball of the year is finally here. The good folks at CBS Sports have been kind enough to partner with SB Nation to provide us with links to watch the games online. Here it is:

This is our first time using live video, so either comment in the thread or shoot me an e-mail at pete.rossman@gmail.com if you're having problems with the site.

Enough tech talk. LET THE GAMES...BEGIN!

T-shirts are waaaay better than books

2010-03-18T14:59:20Z

Slight change in plans: The prize for the nontraditional bracket contest will be one (1) free MSU-related t-shirt from Underground Printing. You may have noticed the new ads UGP is running on the site. Head over to their website to check out what looks like some high-quality Spartan gear.

There's just one hour left to get your contest entry in.

UPDATE: UGP will be providing prizes for both TOC bracket contests. And you'll get more than just one t-shirt: $50 gift certificate to each winner.

This just in: Blair White is RIPPED. Now back to your regularly-scheduled programming.

2010-03-18T12:29:50Z

This just in: Blair White is RIPPED.

Now back to your regularly-scheduled programming.

Tournament Eve Thoughts

2010-03-18T01:42:06Z

More photos » Darron Cummings - AP

Raise your hand if you want to play a few more games.

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I have to confess that I'm struggling with what to say about this team going into NCAA Tournament action. I think Friday's night loss has left an analytical fog hanging over me. But that was just one game--and one game that, despite the major issues with the playing rotation, Michigan State would have won with just a 60% free throw shooting performance.

Bigger picture, it still doesn't feel like MSU has put together many (if any) games this season in which it's played 40 minutes of high-quality basketball. Still, this season hasn't exactly been a complete disappointment, with another Big Ten championship banner now hanging from the Breslin Center rafters. This, despite the injury and other personnel issues that have cropped over the course of the season.

(Notice how every sentence in that paragraph has a direction-shifting word like "still" in it? I think that's a clear symptom of blogger ambivalence.)

Since the beginning of Big Ten play, MSU has a record of 14-2 in games in which the full contingent of major contributors has been available and (mostly) healthy. (Exclusions: Loss at Illinois without Lucas, loss to Purdue with a gimpy Lucas, loss to Minnesota in BTT without Allen.)

This is a team that, for all the flaws it's displayed, knows how to battle. Everyone but the two limited-minute freshmen has played on the sport's biggest stage. And collectively speaking, this team is not intimidated by high-pressure situations. Proof:

Michigan St.    +0.07    +0.10    +0.03
New Mexico      +0.11    +0.10    -0.01
Kansas St.      +0.09    +0.08    -0.01
Florida St.     +0.03    +0.02    -0.01
UNLV            +0.16    +0.13    -0.03
Vanderbilt      +0.07    +0.04    -0.03
Syracuse        +0.13    +0.10    -0.03
West Virginia   +0.14    +0.10    -0.04
Richmond        +0.15    +0.10    -0.05

The first column of numbers is average efficiency margin at home; the second is average efficiency margin on the road; the third column is the difference (all conference-only numbers). MSU is the only major-conference team in the country that performed more efficiently on the road than at home in conference play this year. Mr. Gasaway expounds:

You are reading that correctly. Michigan State was better on the road in Big Ten play than they were at home this year--thanks in no small measure to their schedule. The Spartans got to play Indiana just once, on the road. Meanwhile MSU played Ohio State just once, at home. Not to mention Tom Izzo's team faced Purdue both with Robbie Hummel (in East Lansing, MSU lost) and without him (in West Lafayette, the Spartans won). As strange as it may sound, the wind was at Michigan State's back, relatively speaking, when they were on the road this season.

Still, the home/road splits on some of MSU's offensive stats are pretty eye-popping, even considering the competition. And keep in mind we're talking about a program that's 15-3 on the road in the Big Ten the past two seasons. Maybe Izzo's tournament success relative-to-seed over the course of his career is in part a function of the rest of the field coming back to him every March. When we admire non-Michigan State teams in February, to some extent we're admiring home-floor prowess that will be rendered a moot point come tournament time. Meanwhile Izzo's team is perfecting tournament-applicable away-from-home skills.

I'm not aware of any definitive research indicating that balanced home/away performance during the regular season is a predictor of NCAA Tournament success, but it's a pretty intuitive conclusion. If our Spartans can somehow find sustained intensity and cohesiveness in the coming days, they remain a formidable foe.

The question is whether enough pieces are there to cohere to one another. A core of three go-to players is in place: Raymar Morgan (77 points and 35 rebounds in his last 4 games), Draymond Green (double digit scoring in 5 of the last 6 games and 9+ rebounds in 3 of the last 4 games), and Kalin Lucas (in a shooting slump, but always a threat to put the team on his back).

Beyond that trio, things get dicey. Chris Allen's been steady down the stretch, but it remains to be seen how the suspension will affect him. Delvon Roe can't go more than about 15 minutes on his bad knee. Durrell Summers' confidence has to be pretty shot after Friday night. Korie Lucious looks like he's regained some of his offensive mojo, but still has turnover and defensive issues. Derrick Nix has become a force early in games, but doesn't have the conditioning to go more than 10 minutes or so. Beyond that list, Mike Kebler is probably next in line, and we've talked about that already.

The other limiting factor on Spartan optimism is the reality that, even if enough players step up to give this team the depth that would be needed to make a deep tournament run, the one team in the country without any notable chinks in its armor would await them in just the third round. (Seriously, check out Kansas' KenPom profile, The numbers are awash in green. Not a trace of pink to be found.)

The two wins needed to confront the enormous obstacle that is the Kansas Jayhawks would result in the 9th MSU Sweet Sixteen appearance in the last 13 seasons. But perhaps more importantly, they would set the stage for one giant crack at beating the only team that was ranked ahead of MSU by the experts when the season began. Sounds like a lot of fun to me--and no doubt to Tom Izzo. (As bad as the draw was for MSU, Kansas fans can't be thrilled with possibly having to play a team with as much experience and potential as the Spartans have in the round of 16.)

Well, the fog cleared enough for me to get two steps ahead of myself, eh?

What are the rest of you thinking/feeling about the team's propsects over the next week or two?

Programming notes:

New Mexico State preview will be up tomorrow night, although LVS has already covered most of the details.
Pete will be posting open threads starting tomorrow for chatting about all the tournament madness.
Don't forget to get your bracket contest entries in for both the traditional and nontraditional contests.

Bracket Breakdown, Bradley-Terry Style

2010-03-17T06:00:31Z

[Bumped. Another tool for anyone who, like me, hasn't filled out their bracket yet. Dan, can you provide a little more technical information on how you calculate these ratings? Looks like a ton of work. -KJ]

(Alternate title: This Is Your Bracket on KRACH.)

Undoubtedly you have seen the log5 breakdowns of the bracket over at Basketball Prospectus, based on Ken Pomeroy's rankings. (If you haven't, what's stopping you? The link is to the Midwest preview, but the others are available as well.) You may also recall that back in December, I posted a short article on the Bradley-Terry ranking method (familiar to college hockey fans as KRACH) and applying it to college basketball as a potential RPI substitute. The main point in its favor is that exceptionally strong or weak opponents cannot have such a significant effect on strength of schedule that a loss raises your rating or a win lowers it; this is a significant flaw in the RPI (and some other record-only rating systems; it can happen in points-based rankings like Pomeroy's but that's because you won by less than his model predicted, so it's not really a flaw there). In fact, if you were to play the world's most awful team, a team that would never beat anyone, your rating would remain exactly unchanged (assuming you won). Likewise if you lost to a theoretically perfect team who had an infinite rating.

Another useful point about the Bradley-Terry method is that it, like Pomeroy's rankings, provides an easy method to calculate the odds of one team beating another: simply divide Team A's rating by the sum of (Team A's rating) and (Team B's rating), and you have Team A's probability of defeating Team B. (The formula for Pomeroy's rankings is only slightly more complex.) So I decided to do a similar bracket breakdown, giving odds of each and every team reaching each round.

Odds table after the jump.

Team	Seed	B-T Rating	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Title Game	Champ
Kansas	M1	95.3024	99.24%	87.98%	78.51%	67.24%	52.22%	38.24%
Kentucky	E1	59.9940	98.36%	82.45%	63.84%	44.67%	32.60%	17.42%
Syracuse	W1	43.7536	96.85%	77.40%	59.79%	42.18%	19.15%	10.84%
West Virginia	E2	35.4880	95.98%	75.83%	50.67%	24.29%	15.01%	6.30%
Duke	S1	29.6715	98.71%	76.44%	48.07%	29.81%	13.36%	5.11%
Villanova	S2	24.3322	96.00%	66.38%	41.52%	21.70%	8.74%	2.99%
Kansas St	W2	24.8326	93.90%	61.30%	40.01%	19.26%	6.59%	2.86%
New Mexico	E3	23.2448	91.93%	64.65%	30.60%	11.80%	6.10%	2.03%
Purdue	S4	23.8606	77.48%	50.70%	26.05%	14.83%	5.91%	2.00%
Temple	E5	24.3970	71.62%	49.37%	17.60%	8.74%	4.62%	1.59%
Georgetown	M3	20.1088	91.46%	54.82%	33.83%	9.15%	4.07%	1.57%
Baylor	S3	19.3236	90.74%	62.27%	31.76%	14.84%	5.23%	1.56%
PIttsburgh	W3	17.2214	82.78%	52.88%	24.71%	9.87%	2.74%	0.96%
Ohio St	M2	16.2168	88.81%	57.34%	28.18%	6.68%	2.64%	0.89%
Butler	W5	16.7066	65.70%	40.92%	14.37%	6.96%	1.89%	0.65%
BYU	W7	16.4780	68.24%	29.35%	16.39%	6.39%	1.73%	0.59%
Tennessee	M6	16.4854	64.64%	31.59%	18.03%	4.32%	1.72%	0.59%
Texas A&M	S5	15.8677	70.84%	33.02%	13.84%	6.52%	2.03%	0.54%
Maryland	M4	12.9482	86.71%	50.72%	8.46%	3.86%	1.34%	0.39%
Vanderbilt	W4	12.8231	71.64%	35.07%	10.46%	4.40%	1.01%	0.29%
Wisconsin	E4	13.6242	79.52%	33.61%	8.30%	3.01%	1.17%	0.28%
Xavier	W6	12.1174	67.33%	31.97%	12.29%	4.01%	0.89%	0.25%
Michigan St	M5	11.7461	76.19%	40.09%	6.22%	2.69%	0.88%	0.24%
N Iowa	M9	14.0160	59.14%	7.95%	4.43%	2.10%	0.76%	0.24%
Texas	E8	13.6891	62.03%	12.28%	5.56%	2.02%	0.79%	0.19%
Gonzaga	W8	11.8179	54.00%	12.64%	6.14%	2.47%	0.54%	0.15%
St Mary's	S10	11.2242	51.73%	17.58%	7.79%	2.67%	0.66%	0.14%
Marquette	E6	11.5208	60.63%	22.63%	7.25%	1.81%	0.64%	0.14%
Notre Dame	S6	10.3006	59.91%	23.56%	8.54%	2.77%	0.64%	0.13%
Richmond	S7	10.4714	48.27%	15.70%	6.71%	2.20%	0.52%	0.10%
Oklahoma St	M7	9.7051	54.87%	23.32%	8.61%	1.45%	0.42%	0.10%
Florida St	W9	10.0687	46.00%	9.60%	4.29%	1.57%	0.31%	0.08%
Missouri	E10	9.6902	51.40%	12.37%	4.57%	1.01%	0.32%	0.06%
Louisville	S9	8.9170	51.61%	12.41%	4.34%	1.47%	0.31%	0.05%
San Diego St	M11	9.0186	35.36%	12.51%	5.33%	0.85%	0.23%	0.05%
UNLV	M8	9.6847	40.86%	4.03%	1.88%	0.73%	0.21%	0.05%
UTEP	W12	8.7206	34.30%	16.09%	3.70%	1.23%	0.22%	0.05%
Clemson	E7	9.1622	48.60%	11.25%	4.02%	0.85%	0.26%	0.05%
Cornell	E12	9.6673	28.38%	13.63%	2.64%	0.77%	0.24%	0.05%
Georgia Tech	M10	7.9837	45.13%	17.25%	5.63%	0.82%	0.21%	0.04%
California	S8	8.3612	48.39%	11.10%	3.72%	1.21%	0.24%	0.04%
Florida	W10	7.6704	31.76%	8.64%	3.27%	0.79%	0.13%	0.03%
Wake Forest	E9	8.3804	37.97%	5.13%	1.75%	0.46%	0.13%	0.02%
Old Dominion	S11	6.8942	40.09%	12.45%	3.47%	0.86%	0.15%	0.02%
Washington	E11	7.4802	39.37%	11.31%	2.73%	0.50%	0.13%	0.02%
Siena	S13	6.9356	22.52%	8.23%	2.06%	0.59%	0.10%	0.01%
Utah St	S12	6.5318	29.16%	8.04%	1.93%	0.53%	0.09%	0.01%
Minnesota	W11	5.8808	32.67%	10.38%	2.47%	0.49%	0.06%	0.01%
Murray St	W13	5.0753	28.36%	7.92%	1.21%	0.28%	0.03%	0.005%
New Mexico St	M12	3.6712	23.81%	6.62%	0.40%	0.08%	0.01%	0.001%
Oakland	W14	3.5825	17.22%	4.78%	0.77%	0.10%	0.009%	0.001%
Wofford	E13	3.5096	20.48%	3.39%	0.29%	0.04%	0.006%	0.0005%
Santa Barbara	M15	2.0441	11.19%	2.10%	0.24%	0.01%	0.001%	0.00006%
Houston	M13	1.9848	13.29%	2.57%	0.09%	0.01%	0.0009%	0.00005%
Sam Houston St	S14	1.9723	9.26%	1.72%	0.18%	0.02%	0.0009%	0.00005%
Montana	E14	2.0411	8.07%	1.42%	0.12%	0.008%	0.0007%	0.00004%
Ohio	M14	1.8769	8.54%	1.08%	0.15%	0.007%	0.0005%	0.00003%
North Texas	W15	1.6135	6.10%	0.71%	0.09%	0.006%	0.0003%	0.00001%
Morgan St	E15	1.4848	4.02%	0.55%	0.05%	0.002%	0.0002%	0.000006%
Vermont	W16	1.4211	3.15%	0.36%	0.04%	0.003%	0.0001%	0.000006%
Robert Morris	S15	1.0140	4.00%	0.34%	0.03%	0.001%	0.00004%	0.000001%
East Tenn St	E16	1.0015	1.64%	0.14%	0.009%	0.0004%	0.00002%	0.0000005%
Lehigh	M16	0.7255	0.76%	0.04%	0.003%	0.0001%	0.000004%	0.0000001%
Ark Pine Bluf	S16	0.3863	1.29%	0.06%	0.001%	0.00003%	0.0000004%	0.000000004%

Blue indicates a team that the Bradley-Terry method rates more highly than Pomeroy's (in terms of probability of beating an "average" team), red indicates the reverse. The darker the shade, the more significant the difference. The most extreme positive difference: New Mexico is expected to win 95.88% of the time against an average team by the Bradley-Terry method but just 88.21% by Pomeroy. Utah State, on the other extreme, is expected to win 86.72% by the Bradley-Terry method but 93.01% by Pomeroy. (Minnesota and Wisconsin, interestingly, are the two next most extreme in B-T pessimism. Oakland and Kentucky are second and third in B-T optimism.)

Some notable differences, bullet-style:

Kansas is #1 by a mile in the Bradley-Terry rankings; only Kentucky and Syracuse even have a 30% chance of pulling the upset. This and the models' disagreement on Ohio State and Maryland (Pomeroy likes both considerably better) leads to a big jump in Kansas's title chances.
Bradley-Terry gives Duke just over a 5% chance to win it all, compared to 24% by Pomeroy. Part of this is that Duke is more lightly regarded here, but the fact that all of the next six teams by seed in their region are rated at least as high here as by Pomeroy plays a role as well. West Virginia, despite having to get past Kentucky just to get to the Final Four, is considered to be more likely to win it all.
Kentucky also sees a big jump in their chances of winning it all here, in large part due to difference of opinion on Wisconsin (who's actually the favorite, by a narrow margin, to escape the East according to Pomeroy's numbers).
Both systems rate us about equally (24th Pomeroy, 26th Bradley-Terry). The main differences in our percentages are due to our opponents: New Mexico State is considered a much tougher opponent by this system (79th) than it is by Pomeroy's (115th), reporting a 23.8% chance of upset compared to 14.2%. But Maryland is not so highly regarded (10th Pomeroy, 22nd Bradley-Terry), so this model gives us a slightly better chance of reaching the Sweet 16. Then we meet the buzzsaw named Kansas, and Bradley-Terry considers them a much bigger busszaw, so our chances thereafter drop accordingly.
Pomeroy's formula has Wisconsin tied for 3rd most likely to win it all (with Syracuse, behind Duke and Kansas). This one has them 21st.
Just two 10 seeds (and no one lower) are favored in the first round by this method: St. Mary's and Missouri. Pomeroy favors Old Dominion, Utah State, Georgia Tech, and St. Mary's.
Poor Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Pomeroy's model gives them a 1 in 2.5 billion chance of winning it all; this method isn't even that generous, at 1 in 25 billion. (That may be an artifact of their calculations simply being for the "play-in winner", which could have been Winthrop, who is rated slightly higher.)

I don't mean this to supplant Pomeroy's rankings and the analysis by the group over at Basketball Prospectus, of course; their data factors in scores and not just win-loss records. But by ignoring record entirely, their analysis also loses some information. Losing (or winning) close games isn't all luck, and a team that consistently failed in the clutch is more likely to do so again. Ideally some hybrid of the two could be used, perhaps by averaging the two rankings in some way before applying log5.

Finally, some major differences among the RPI and Bradley-Terry rankings:

Teams the RPI overrates: San Diego State (19th vs. 38th), Cal (20th vs. 42nd), Siena (27th vs. 48th), Old Dominion (28th vs. 50th), Utah State (32nd vs. 54th), UAB (42nd vs. 58th), Wichita State (45th vs. 60th), Kent St. (47th vs. 74th), Oakland (51st vs. 80th), New Mexico State (52nd vs. 79th). Common thread, for most: Lots of games against the 100-200 range and/or low 200s, very few against the high 200s and 300s. Oakland seems to be the exception; theirs may be due to the opposite effect of playing teams way over their ranking and getting a huge SOS boost to offset the effect the loss has on RPI.
Teams the RPI underrates: Gonzaga (37th vs. 25th), Missouri (46th vs. 33rd), Notre Dame (48th vs. 30th), Cornell (49th vs. 35th), Marquette (50th vs. 27th), Virginia Tech (58th vs. 36th), Ole Miss (62nd vs. 47th), Seton Hall (68th vs. 43rd). Again, there's a common theme: Tons of games against "RPI anchors" which aren't (for good teams) functionally that much different from playing teams in the 150-200 range but are punished far more severely in the RPI.

This seems to confirm what conventional wisdom has always said: RPI puts a big emphasis on choosing your cupcakes carefully. Choose poorly, and your RPI will suffer even if you win. Choose wisely, and you can get a bunch of near-guaranteed wins without making your strength of schedule look too embarrassing. This year, Virginia Tech chose ... poorly. And it is the reason they didn't make the tournament.

Linking Laconically is killing time until Thursday

2010-03-17T03:43:07Z

More photos » Al Goldis - AP

Think positive. Think positive.

Browse more photos »

The State News : Blogs - Allen talks about suspension
"It was tough. Seeing plays if I was in I could have done something, it was just hurtful. I was just hurting so that humbled me a lot." Yeah. Us, too.
Tom Izzo defends his discipline of MSU players this season | detnews.com | The Detroit News
Allen practicing well according to Izzo.
Minnesota-Michigan State is top-rated basketball game in Big Ten Network's history | - MLive.com
Half a million people were watching. No wonder the team missed so many free throws. All that pressure.
Michigan State's Raymar Morgan, Kalin Lucas and Draymond Green selected as team MVPs | - MLive.com
Lucas and Morgan picked by players, Green by the media. I'd lean slightly toward Green, but they're all in the same ballpark. Morgan wins if you weight late-season performance more heavily.
Trash talk galore! | DETNEWS | Weblogs | Big Ten Blog
New Mexico State's leading scorer has never heard of Kalin Lucas.
Can Maryland Slow Down Houston's Aubrey Coleman? - Testudo Times
The game on the other side of the pod looks potentially entertaining.
Don't fall for 'em: The five most overrated teams - The Dagger - NCAAB Blog - Yahoo! Sports
I hope they're right about Maryland.
Basketball Prospectus | Articles | Tournament Preview: Midwest Musings
Only a 3.6% chance of making the Final Four under the KenPom log5 methodology.
Tom Izzo, Steve Mariucci set record straight on relationship | detnews.com | The Detroit News
TMI.
Pershing downs Southeastern in overtime | detnews.com | The Detroit News
29 and 7 for Keith Appling. Late-game steal made up for missed free throw.
Jefferson runs past Lehman for D-IV district title
Adreian Payne back in action after the dislocated shoulder: 14 points, 11 rebounds.
Where does Trey Zeigler fit best? - ESPN
Options are UCLA/U-M/MSU/CMU/Duke. MSU still doesn't have scholarship spot officially open.
Scouting & Video: Trey Zeigler vs. Flint NW | UM Hoops.com
Dylan with the first-hand scouting report; free throw shooting an issue.
Iowa outlines hoops job in ad | Hawkmania
Hey, I have a master's degree!
Playing the name game | Hawkmania
Brian Gregory a potential candidate to replace Todd Lickliter? Not sure I want two former Izzo assistants in the Big Ten.
Broadcaster Bill Raftery prepares for his 28th NCAA tournament - The Bonus - SI.com
Good read.
Big Ten Prospectus - What Is Your Team Really Worth to the Conference? - The Rivalry, Esq.
Interesting: Blind formulating puts MSU at #4, behind UM/OSU/PSU.
WhatIfSports.com: Big Ten Network Bracket of Classics, College Basketball Tournament
Apparently, NCAA sanctions prevent the Fab Five teams from even participating in hypothetical tournaments. 79, 00, and 09 teams in for MSU.
Michigan's only known wolverine is dead | - MLive.com
Autopsy showed it died of a broken heart. Hardy, har, har.

Smarter Than the Average NCAA Tournament Bracket Contest, Boo Boo

2010-03-16T22:55:53Z

Other contests:

The BTT Bracket contest ended in a tie between KarkoviceIsHawt, spartyboy40, and SpartanDan. All three entrants had Ohio State winning the tournament, Illinois and Purdue in the semifinals, and 2 of the 3 first-day winners correct. And they were each one possession off on the tie-breaker. That means we go to a random draw for the prize. The accounting firm of My Five-Year Old Son Rolling a Die conducted the draw. The winner of one copy of When March Went Mad is [drumroll] spartyboy40. Send me me your name and mailing address, sir (or madam), and we'll get the book right out to you. Kudos to all three first-place finishers.
Pete's more traditional NCAA Tournament contest is here. (He's so old-fashioned. But his version does have automated scoring.)

The Smarter-than-Average Contest

Any schmuck can fill out a bracket by picking the higher seed in almost every game. This blog’s readers deserve a more intellectually-demanding competition. Hence the contest I've run the last three years (and by "run," I mean "post the rules for and hope that SpartanDan graciously takes care of actually keeping tracks of the scores again").

Here are the rules (same as last year):

Each entrant picks a list of 16 teams from the 65-team NCAA bracket.
For each game a team on your list wins, you receive points equal to the team’s seed. Example: If you pick an 8 seed and they win 2 games before losing in the third round, you get 16 points. This creates an incentive to look for lower-seeded teams likely to pull upsets.
There are bonuses of (a) 1 point for making the Final Four, (b) 3 points for making the championship game, and (c) 5 points for winning the national championship. So picking a 1 seed who wins the national championship would be worth 15 points (6 points for their 6 wins plus 9 points for the three bonuses). This keeps the top seeds in play as potential picks.

Entries must be posted in the comments section of this blog post by noon on Thursday. Just list your 16 teams in any order. The tie-breaker is the number of possessions in the championship game (as determined by StatSheet).

Here’s the official bracket. Get those mental gears turning. Winner gets a book (the same one).

TOC Traditional Bracket Challenge

2010-03-16T14:29:49Z

TOC Traditional Bracket Challenge

KJ will have his bracket challenge he ran at the ol' Spartans Weblog up sometime tonight or tomorrow. If you want to do a more traditional bracket, here's the information to join The Only Colors group on ESPN:

Group Name: The Only Colors
Group Password: Green5

Winner gets a random book I have lying around my apartment. It could be God Bless You Mr. Rosewater, or it could be The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle, if you're lucky.

Because I want everyone to do their best, here's a tip - totally pick New Mexico and Purdue to make the Final Four. I'll be picking them too *stifles laugh*.

Two More Mike Kebler-Related Thoughts

2010-03-16T02:59:21Z

[Expanding on the MSU section of my previous post.]

1. I just looked at the box score of the MSU-Minnesota game for the first time. You know what? The Mike Kebler thing nearly worked. From the time Kebler entered the game with 9:22 left in the second half through the end of regulation, MSU outscored Minnesota 16-9 over 12-13 possessions. And 4 of those 9 Gopher points came on the first two possessions Kebler was in for, on two offensive put backs by big men. As has been his custom, Kebler played very good defense, helping to force Minnesota into some tough looks down the stretch and allowing Morgan, Lucas, and Green to work their magic on the other end. (A Korie Lucious 3-pointer helped, too.)

I do wonder about not putting in a player who's more of an offensive threat (even Delvon Roe for offensive rebounding) on that final offensive play in regulation, though. I haven't seen the replay, but my sense watching it live was that Kebler's man hedged off him to collapse on the play in the lane with Lucas coming around the screen.

2. Please don't interpret anything I've said as a knock on Mike Kebler. (The photo caption on the last post was too snarky in retrospect.) The fact that Tom Izzo would play Kebler over six different players on the bench who came into the program on scholarship (and weren't wearing a necktie) speaks volumes of what the he's proved about himself in a very short period of time.

It's easy to point out the negatives from Kebler's performance. But I don't blame for him for missing the two free throws. How many shots do you think he's taken in his life with that much adrenaline rushing through his body? (Both misses were too long, as I recall.) And stepping on the out-of-bounds line after grabbing that defensive rebound was a function of how hard he had to work to pull down the rebound in the first place.

The problem with the Michigan State basketball team on Friday night was definitely not Mike Kebler. It was the guys sitting on the bench instead of Kebler.

Alright, on to the Big Dance. Had to get the game recapping compulsion out of the way.

P.S. The other problem was, of course, a bunch of missed free throws. Based on this four-factors graph, you'd sure think the team with the green bars was the winner.

College Basketball

OK, I'm done now. Really.

That's not enough! More Big Ten talk!

2010-03-15T21:54:21Z

More photos » Michael Conroy - AP

Mismatch. And not to our advantage.

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So, outside of the 2+ hours of torturous MSU fandom Friday night, my 4-day/3-night stay in Indianapolis was lovely. Highlights:

My 2-year old daughter hanging out with the MSU Dance Team at the Thursday night pep rally and winning a Sparty doll.
The consuming of food (and spirits) at Cafe Patachou, The Ram Restaurant, Buca Di Beppo, and the Rock Bottom Brewery.
An entertaining and enlightening Sunday morning at the Indianapolis Children's Museum.
Five consecutive competitive basketball games from Friday at noon through Saturday at 4:00.
A rare opportunity to see the consensus national player of the year play on three consecutive days.

(I even do my travelogues in bullet-point fashion.)

And, thanks to LVS and Pete, I got to enjoy the entire long weekend without having to type any more than 140 characters at a time. I could get used to having just-a-fan-of-the-blog status.

But it's back to the blogging grind now. To get back in the groove, I'll start with a recap of the Big Ten Tournament. And by "recap," I mean "a series of random thoughts on Big Ten teams, mostly regurgitated from my Twitter feed."

Random thoughts on the eight teams I saw play over the weekend are after the jump, neatly sorted by ascending order of BTT finish.

8. Michigan

So has John Beilein explained his last-second defensive strategy, beyond just "I was really, really scared of a full-court pass"? With only 2 seconds left, you can already drop one man back to the front court with no danger of the offensive player in-bounding the ball getting a return pass. Isn't three defenders to guard two offensive players enough to at least get a hand on the ball if there's a full-court pass attempt? Turner's shot probably only goes in 10% of the time, but why not make sure he doesn't get a clean look at the basket with all his momentum moving forward? Terrible way for the career of a player as classy as DeShawn Sims to end.

Also, give credit to Laval Lucas-Perry for how he defended Evan Turner late in that game. He did a phenomenal job moving his feet to stay in front of Turner.

Looking forward, neither option available to Manny Harris looks too appealing: declare for the draft and probably fall to the second round due to continued concerns about his outside shooting or stay at Michigan and have defenses hound him even more than they did this season. Michigan returns no post players with any significant on-court experience.

7. Northwestern

Going into next season, I imagine Northwestern will again be a popular pick to make a run at the top of the conference and finally earn that elusive first NCAA Tournament bid. Jeremy Nash is the only regular who will depart, and they'll have a healthy Kevin Coble back. But I wonder if the whole will be less than the sum of the parts. John Shurna basically gave them everything they could have hoped for from Coble this year. How much does having two guys capable of scoring 20 points per game, but who do it in exactly the same way, help?

Outside of MSU, I like watching Northwestern as much as any team in the league. But I'm starting to wonder if the peaks and valleys inherent with (1) shooting so many 3-pointers and (2) the 1-3-1 zone set a cap on the Wildcats' in-league performance at around .500.

6. Wisconsin

Somehow, I have no distinct thoughts about the Badgers' performance on Friday. A function of how predictably (but normally effectively) they play, I suppose.

5. Michigan State

How can you be 30 games into a season and only have four scholarship players that can be trusted on the court late in a close game? Tom Izzo's implicit statement by playing Mike Kebler down the stretch, on both defense and offense, was "My team is on the floor." It's hard to feel like there's a Hoosiers-like happy ending coming here, though. At this point, MSU has two guys playing with tremendous determination and focus (Raymar Morgan and Draymond Green), one guy with enough innate ability to overcome his recent shooting woes (Kalin Lucas), and . . . not much else to go with those three players.

4. Illinois

Bruce Weber did not impress. There were, of course, the poor last-second offensive play calls in the loss to Ohio State. There was also the fact that Weber stands six feet out on the court attempting to direct traffic while his team plays defense at the other end of the floor. Does Weber not teach his team how to play defense in practices? Does he really want his players looking down the floor for his directions while play is live?

Heckuva job by Demetri McCamey to keep his team in the game, given that his supporting cast doesn't compare all that well with Evan Turner's.

3. Purdue

I'm using seeding as the tie-breaker in ranking the tournament finishes, but Purdue is clearly not the third best team in the Big Ten right now. Dan Hanner has quantified just how enormous the impact of Robbie Hummel's injury has been on the Boilermakers. It's really astounding how the Purdue offense has broken down without Hummel's soothing presence; everything turns into a one-on-one move by JaJuan Johnson or E`Twaun Moore. With 29 minutes gone in Saturday's semifinal game, only two field goals had been made by Purdue players other than Johnson.

Something Matt Painter should consider: Tell every player on the roster that he is compelled to take any open 3-point look given to him by the defense. Can Chris Kramer and Lewis Jackson taking open shots from beyond the arc really make the offense any worse? At one point on Saturday, there was a defensive miscommunication by Minnesota and Lewis Jackson was left unguarded by the defense while dribbling the ball for a period of 3-4 seconds. Rather than shooting or driving, Jackson found an open teammate and passed off.

2. Minnesota

I wonder if Al Nolen losing his academic eligibility actually helped the Gophers in the long run by forcing Devoe Joseph to become a more assertive player. They still have a tendency to fall into a shell on offense when they have a decent lead, but Joseph at least gives them a guy who can create his own shot late in the shot clock. Killed us in overtime, obviously.

1. Ohio State

If not for the fact that they were placed in the same bracket as Kansas, Ohio State would be a popular Final Four pick. Evan Turner is a sublime basketball player, and their starting lineup looks nearly impossible to stop when they're clicking. You can't press them, you can't zone them. And David Lighty does a great job compensating when he's matched-up with a taller player at the 4 spot.

But I think we should back up here and note that it took a miracle last-second shot and two overtimes for Ohio State to get to the conference tournament final. The Buckeyes didn't put a team away until the second half of the final, playing against a team that had already played 140 minutes of basketball in a 67-hour period.

It'll be interesting to see if Ohio State can continue to coast with its 6-man rotation during the NCAA Tournament and then turn on the jets when they need to.

Bonus! Crowd Observations

Big thumbs up to the Big Ten's decision to sell discounted tickets to students this year. Having the small-but-loud student contingents in the upper deck helped add some life to the place. Michigan's student contingent probably had the highest volume-to-size ratio. MSU's and Illinois's were the largest and the loudest in absolute terms.

Also, Ohio State really is a football school. Conseco was barely 40% full for the final. Walking around the concourse at halftime, I counted as many OSU fans wearing football jerseys as basketball jerseys. Illinois had the biggest fan contingent prior to Sunday--although their blinding orange shirts skew the estimates a bit.

Overall, I note that my comments above about the top eight Big Ten teams are decidedly negative. That either means (1) a poor showing by the league in the Big Dance is forthcoming or (2) I've been watching these teams play for too long now.

MSU - New Mexico St.: Friday at 7:20 pm (EDT).

2010-03-15T02:18:56Z

MSU - New Mexico St.: Friday at 7:20 pm (EDT).

As shown in the official tournament bracket, available here. (Times on the bracket are shown in local time. Thanks, intrpdtrvlr.)

Your First Round Opponent: The New Mexico State Aggies

2010-03-15T00:58:25Z

I bet those guys voted for the Gadsden Purchase.

Let's do this bullet-style:

22-11 (11-5). WAC tournament champions; 2nd place in the regular season, behind Utah State. Ranked 115 nationally by KenPom.
3-5 against other NCAA Tournament teams: 11/13 lost to St. Mary's, 100-68; 11/17 lost to New Mexico, 97-87; 12/1 lost to UTEP, 79-58; 12/5 lost to New Mexico, 75-58; 12/13 beat UTEP, 87-80; 1/2 beat Utah St., 55-52; 3/6 lost to Utah St., 81-63; 3/13 beat Utah St., 69-63. Also was manhandled by a terrible UCLA team, 100-68.
Four factors analysis: 53.4 eFG (26th nationally), 17.9 TO% (48th), 30.4 OR% (254th), 38.0 FTA/FGA (160th).
They're good offensively (110.5 efficiency, 46th). They do this by shooting a ton of 3s (38.7 3PA/FGA, 49th highest), and they shoot them well -- 37.4%; they're also above-average from the line (70.1 FT%, 138th). They also like to play fast, as their adjusted tempo, 71.8, is 23rd nationally.
Happily, they're, uh, not so good on defense (104.1 efficiency, 222nd). They: 1) allow opposing teams a 51.3% eFG, on average (277th), 2) don't force many turnovers (18.7%, 267th), and 3) allow opponents to rebound a ton of their misses (34.6%, 261st).
They rely heavily on their starters (22.9% bench minutes, 321st), and 3 of their starters average more than 14 points per game: guard Jahmar Young (20.5 ppg, 54.1% eFG), guard Jonathan Gibson (17.5 ppg, 56.8% eFG), and forward Troy Gillenwater (14.4 ppg, 56.3% eFG). The other starters are forward Wendell McKines (10.8 ppg, 52.4% eFG) and center Hamidu Rahman (10.4 ppg, 56.3 eFG).
New Mexico State last appeared in the tournament in 2007, when they were a 13 seed and were bounced in the first round by Texas, 79-67.

The rebounding numbers should make you smile, as State should have a major, major, major advantage on the boards. Of course, a team that shoots as many threes as the Aggies do -- and shoots them well, as they also do -- is always dangerous. (The Aggies' offensive statistical profile surely makes John Beilein swoon.)

Still, the consensus seems to be that MSU might have dodged a bullet with this matchup, and that UTEP and Cornell are empirically better teams. (Of course, that's made up for by the Midwest bracket placement; it's the most difficult region by a country mile.) KenPom's computer doesn't see this as a close game at all, and predicts an 83-71 Spartan victory. And, if you need more reasons for optimism, let's go to the man himself:

kenpomeroy: Congrats to Michigan State for a relative walkover in a 5/12 game.

. . . and TAFKATBTW:

JohnGasaway: Huge disparity in 5-seed situations. Michigan St. won the lottery. Temple's underseeded (duh). Butler and TX A&M have *very* tough games.

It's March again. Here we go.

The enemy. For more on New Mexico State, head over to Bleed Crimson, or check back here shortly.

2010-03-14T22:47:30Z

The enemy. For more on New Mexico State, head over to Bleed Crimson, or check back here shortly.

Selection Sunday Open Thread

2010-03-14T21:51:47Z

More photos » Eric Gay - AP

It's the most wonderful time . . . of the year.

Browse more photos »

[UPDATE: MSU is a 5 seed in the Midwest, playing New Mexico State in Spokane on Friday. If we can get through the first round, we're probably looking at Maryland in the 2nd round, and a potential Sweet Sixteen rematch with Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen. Ohio State is the #2 seed in the Midwest, playing the opening rounds in Milwaukee.

My immediate reaction is that this is an immensely unfavorable draw for MSU. Seems like the committee put a lot of emphasis on the conference tournament. Truly, we made our own bad luck here. End update.]

First, congratulations to Ohio State, who put together a national championship-quality performance in throttling Minnesota, 90-61. Whoever ends up in the same region as Ohio State, beware: it's cliche, but the Buckeyes are peaking at the right time and playing as well as any team in the country.

The bracket selection gets underway in approximately 10 minutes, on CBS. Your Spartans figure to be a 4 or 5 seed (3 if we're massively lucky). The key here would seem to be avoiding the dreaded 5-12 matchup. A quick sampling of expert bracket predictions:

SBN's own Blogging the Bracket has MSU as the 5 seed in the South region. We'd play Cornell (27-4, Ivy League champs) in New Orleans.
Joe Lunardi's Bracketology has MSU as the Midwest 5 seed, playing Wake Forest (19-10) in San Jose.
Jerry Palm also has MSU in the Midwest region, but as the 4 seed, playing Murray State (30-4, Ohio Valley champs) in San Jose.

Other burning questions: will Minnesota be in the field? Illinois? We'll find out soon enough. The best sports week of the year is about to begin.