Viva El Birdos: Front Page Posts

Phillies @ Dodgers Open Thread- 15th October, 2008

the red baron — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 21:30:04 -0000

Hamels Billingsley

Echoes of Brooklyn

With Torre in the dugout

A peche for glory

Just the Right Bullets: the Majors

the red baron — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:47:45 -0000

So far this offseason, we've all tossed out our very favourite trade targets on a pretty much daily basis, hashing and then rehashing the details of every deal that could possibly bring us that personal hobby horse we so dearly wish to have. And why not? It's our right as fans, damnit! There aren't any games going on (at least not for our boys in red), so we might as well talk about what could be for next season, right?

But what about the other side of the equation? We all know just which player- or players- that we would like to see the Cardinals pick up, but we rarely focus on the guys going the other way. The bullets, so to speak, that make the deal happen. Really, if you want to come up with a deal that just may actually work, it's probably best to start with your own side, rather than looking at who you want. Figure out how much value you yourself have, and go from there.

So, with that in mind, let's treat some human beings like chattel, shall we? It doesn't have to be a comprehensive examination, of course. I thought that, to start at least, we'll take a look just at what the Cards already have at the big league level. Call it a bird in the hand situation. I think that most of us know who the trade chips are. Now let's see just how good a chips they are.

Adam Kennedy- Hey, I figured we would start out right at the top. The top, of course, as in the top of most fans' wish lists to be moved this offseason.

I have to say, at this point, I think that Adam Kennedy has pretty negligible trade value. He is still a very, very good defensive second baseman; most of the defensive metrics had him amongst the very best at the position in 2008. It appears that at least some of his problems in 2007 were caused largely by his knee malady, and he looks to be healthy again. Unfortunately, Kennedy's bat apparently didn't get the memo that his knee was supposed to contain some sort of miraculous fountain of youth chemical that would begin pouring out the second it was operated on, because it has just refused to come back out of hiding. He did hit better in '08 than in '07, thankfully, but that's a lot like saying that getting punched in the crotch is quite a lot better than getting kicked in the crotch. Either way, it just isn't all that much fun.

Bottom line, any team that agrees to take on Kennedy's salary, even for a single season, simply isn't going to give the Cardinals much in return. He's a pure salary dump player, useful really only as part of a package deal, I think.

Skip Schumaker- Yeah, I know he's a fan favourite, as well as a manager favourite. Still, when it comes right down to it, Skippy is replaceable.

Now, that's not to say he doesn't have some real value. He's a very strong defender, and doesn't fit too badly at the top of a lineup. His plate discipline came a long way this season, and he still makes good contact. He even showed a modicum of pop at times. He's still relatively cheap, so that certainly helps. As one of our posters states so very eloquently in his signature, Skip and Kosuke Fukudome are roughly equivalent players, and the Cobbler isn't going to cost you eleven million a year.

I have to say, I'm sort of hoping to see Skip get moved this winter. I think he has pretty good value on the market, while the Cardinals have options internally that I think would be much better in the long run. I like Skip, don't think for a second that I don't, but he's really a pretty damned good trade chip.

Troy Glaus- Glaus is a bit of a left field trade piece, I know, but still a valid one, I think. He's under contract for the 2009 season, having exercised his option when he was dealt to the Cards last offseason. Given the numbers he put up this past season, Glaus would be quite a deal for anyone looking to add some serious pop at the hot corner.

The problem with Glaus, of course, is that he has a complete no trade clause that he would have to waive before any deal could actually get done. He seems quite happy here in St. Louis, and I'm sure would require a pretty substantial inducement to waive the clause. I would think that he would probably be interested in playing on the west coast only, and any team looking to get him would probably need to offer him at least a three year extension. Unfortunately, that limits his trade value fairly significantly. Still, a guy with his numbers and pedigree might still be able to bring a pretty penny on the open market, and the Cards are suddenly awash in third base prospects who are at least relatively near the show.

Ryan Ludwick- Oy. This one is tough to suggest, to be perfectly honest. There's no way you give up a guy who puts up the type of numbers that Ludwick is capable of, right? Well, there are certainly reasons to at least consider it.

First off, Luddy has a pretty extensive injury history. I know, it seems a little callous to consider trading a guy because he's had trouble staying healthy, but that is the situation. He's had two healthy seasons in a row, after many, many years of near-constant time spent on the DL. Can he keep himself in one piece for a third year in a row?

Second, while the numbers Luddy put up this year were certainly impressive, you also have to be cautious about putting too very much weight on them. As much of a question as his health is, you absolutely have to have the exact same concerns about how real this level of production is.

So what you have here is a player right around thirty years old, with one pretty good and one outstanding year under his belt. He's still cost controlled, as his service time is only in the two year range, so that does help his value. Still, you have to question just how much a team is going to be willing to gamble on Luddy being reality, rather than just a one year wonder.

Rick Ankiel- Another tough one. The kid's been with the organisation forever, so there's obviously some serious emotional ties between he and the team, not to mention the fans. I have to think that Mozeliak would be, at the least, hesitant to move Rick.

On the upside, Ankiel is ridiculously talented, in almost every facet of the game. He's got power to spare, showed the ability to hit for at least a fair average, and can play the outfield quite well. He's probably better suited for right field than center, but he's quite adequate either place. The arm, of course, doesn't hurt matters any, as runners have to be on the lookout for him tossing them out anywhere, at any time.

On the downside, Ankiel is almost thirty himself, has a pretty extensive injury history, and still doesn't really have a whole lot in the way of plate discipline. His track record is very limited, yet he's also close to free agency. A team looking to pick up Rick would essentially be getting only one year of cost controlled performance, thus driving his value down. Overall, all the caveats with Ludwick apply to Ankiel too, only moreso. He has some value, certainly, if only because of his talent, but Rick Ankiel just isn't as good a commodity as many seem to believe.

Chris Duncan- This one, honestly, is probably a non-starter from the get go. Duncan just had pretty radical surgery on his neck; the sort of surgery, in fact, that doesn't really have any kind of precedent for an athlete coming back from. He has about two thirds of a good season, to be honest, he can't play the outfield, and that's pretty much all there is to say about that.

Chris may come back in 2009 and turn himself back into the valuable commodity he was after the 2006 season. Then again, he may not. Either way, he's not getting moved this offseason, and has really no value even if he were.

Chris Perez- Now here's an intriguing fellow. We all know of Perez's limitations, and we've seen just what he can do all the same. You want a player that could net you something serious on the trade market, brother, this is it.

What we have here is a young, cost controlled, close to closer ready pitcher with very little injury history and an absolutely electric arm. He does have some pesky issues with his control, of course, but when he's on, he's unhittable already, and he's just a baby. The sky is the limit with Perez; of course, that's also probably the reason you would hope not to move a guy like him.

Bottom line, Perez is probably the Cards' best trade chip at the major league level. (And yes, I consider him a major league pitcher, no matter what La Russa might say about the plans for him next year.) He is the most valuable to the Cardinals, but also the most valuable to most other teams as well. If you're looking to bring in a guy like, say, a Brandon Wood or the like, Perez is likely the sort of player you'll end up having to use to get it done.

Come to think of it, while watching the Rays in the postseason, one can't help but notice that they're using Dan Wheeler, and not the good Wheeler, to be honest, to try and close out games. While the name Zobrist is getting thrown around a lot 'round these parts, I think Perez is worth more than that. The Rays do, of course, just happen to have a guy, plays shortstop, down in the minors. Name of Brignac, I believe...

And really, that's about it. Guys like Thompson and Pineiro, I honestly don't think they have a whole lot of value. Pineiro is waaayy too expensive for what you get, and Thompson just isn't worth much on the market. I could be wrong about Puppy Kicker, at least, but I don't think I am. I still consider Mather a minor leaguer, as his time here was very, very limited. So, to be honest, those are probably the best bullets that the Cards have to deal with this offseason. Most of the other players I could bring up are, in one way or another, much more necessary to the team. As much as I like Bryan Anderson, I'd be awfully leery of dealing Yadier Molina. The middle infielders are all free agents or named Aaron Miles.

So that's the crop. What do you guys think?

ALCS Game 4 Open Thread

chuckb — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 00:18:13 -0000

It's already 3-0, top of the first. 2 Ray bombs before Sox fans sit down w/ their Sam Adams! Pen's already active. Why was there no discussion of bringing Matsuzaka back in game 4, as the Dodgers did w/ Lowe last night? Wakefield doesn't exactly inspire fear in the hearts of the opponents.

In Which I Think Positive Elbow Thoughts

DanUpBaby — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 11:24:09 -0000

Matt Stairs fulfilled a long-standing dream of mine last night. I've always wanted a player, when asked about his clutch pinch hit homer—about his strategy, his plate coverage, his pitch selection—to say, "Well, Howard, I mainly just swing as hard as I can." (video h.t.: Baseball Primer.)

It's not as if it takes a lot of scouting to see that Matt Stairs takes, and has always taken, a swing that seems to assume the baseball is multi-colored, horse-shaped, and filled with candy, but how often does a piayer just come right out and say it? Hopefully this honesty will radiate outward from Stairs in time to produce some cathartic Winter Meetings confessional articles. DUNCAN: "I really just didn't like his stupid brim, and his stupid, stupid face"; MARQUIS: "Yeah, it's not really even a sinker"; ISRINGHAUSEN: "Sometimes I'm not even sure my right arm's attached until I start warming up."

Odds and ends today; some unexpected classwork cut into my prep time.

Albert Pujols is so good at baseball that he can transform the nature of his elbow injury at will. Is this surgery instead of the inevitable Tommy John? Is it in addition to? Does it stave it off for some indeterminate amount of time? I don't want to besmirch Doc Paletta's reputation too badly, since I'm sure we don't know all there is to know about the Carp and Mulder situations, but it's safe to say that I would feel a little better about this if it were some other doctor telling me the mang would be—gulp—ready in time for Spring Training. Pretty soon everyone's two favorite Dan and Al memes, "He'll be ready for Spring Training" and "He's like trading for a frontline player at the deadline", will have to be merged into one ur-phrase.
Rocco Baldelli? Rocco Baldelli! Back when it seemed like the Cardinals wouldn't have a surplus of outfielders going into 2009, back when he was most famous for an overly ambitious Joe DiMaggio comparison from the Devil Rays and not a mitochondrial disease, the Woonsocket Rocket was my default answer when the Cardinals found themselves, by my estimation, a hitter short. Baldelli not just coming back but homering in a crucial playoff game—this is the point at which the Rays reach inspiring-story overload.
Merry CRasmus has a well-researched fanpost about rotation construction, if yesterday's post was simply not enough for you on the subject. I probably would have restricted the search to the actual pitchers who get long term deals (where you still have a Jason Schmidt contract for every Mike Mussina contract), but it's a discussion starter. For the Cardinals' sake, if nothing else, I hope the "bottom-up" method of rotation construction is a sound one; the Cardinals have developed a gaggle of starting prospects in recent years, with more on the way, but they all seem predestined from draft day to the bottom half of the rotation.
Speaking of discussion, in case you missed it we have a new hot stove open thread on the sidebar. I love the Hot Stove League, and I look forward to it every year, but I always forget about the oppressive lull that descends over the golfing teams until the end of the World Series. It'll be time to refresh Bernie's Press Box every ten minutes soon enough; in the meantime it's all we can do to hunker down and think thoughts of Brandon Wood, Rafael Furcal, or your number two starter of choice.

Sorry to bullet-point and run. Game thread in time to root Our Rays past the Hated Sox, and I mean it this time.

Dual LCS Game Threads

chuckb — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 23:00:08 -0000

TB 5, Boston 0, 1 on, 2 out in the bottom of the 6th. Go Rays.

BTW, for those of you who don't recognize me (and why would you?), I am the artist formerly known as HoustonCardinal. I hated that moniker so I will now be known as chuckb. Not sure how I came up w/ that one. Go Rays!

Five Starters

DanUpBaby — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 13:15:04 -0000

I get distracted watching Hiroki Kuroda pitch. It's not that he's really good, or that I'm shocked by his mastery of the strike zone—it's that the vague consensus on the internet is that he throws the shuuto, the other ill-defined, mystery-shrouded Japanese breaking pitch that follows, at beat-writer-distance, every pitching import from the moment they step foot in the states. The shuuto, famously misidentified as a gyroball a few years back, is supposed to be anything from a "reverse slider" to a two-seam fastball to a slider with less lateral movement.

For what it's worth—and given how uncompetitive the game was, it's worth as much as anything else—I saw a few that seemed definitively shuuto-like to me, particularly the pitch Kuroda threw after sending one behind Victorino's head. But if there were ever a game to show the arbitrariness of pitch names, it was that one. Kuroda's pitch might as well have been called a splitter or a changeup, and Jamie Moyer seems to throw, at this point, one pitch at three velocities: slow, 75, less slow, 80, and change-up, 85. Or maybe not; post-Kuroda cleanup was left to Jonathan Broxton, who throws a 150 mph fastball and a slider that comes in around 120. It's just that a 7-2 game lends itself to making sweeping generalities.

I've been thinking a lot about rotation construction, because I guess a 7-2 game lends itself to a lot of things. There's a ton of aces in this set of prospective league champions—five pitchers whose ERA was thirty percent above average among them, with guys like Scott Kazmir just off the pace—and it seems like every day there's some pitcher, a Billingsley or Matsuzaka, who makes his game appointment TV. But it's the Rays who offer the most hope for the near-future Cardinals. Here's their five man squad:

starter	GS	IP/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	W-L	ERA+
Shields	33	6.52	6.69	1.67	1.00	14 -8	122
Kazmir	27	5.64	9.81	4.14	1.36	12-8	125
Sonn.	32	6.04	5.77	1.72	0.98	13-9	100
Garza	30	6.16	6.24	2.88	0.93	11-9	118
Jackson	31	5.91	5.30	3.78	1.13	14-11	99

Ladies and gentlemen, the Lake Wobegon Five. It reminds me, more than anything else, of the 2004 Cardinals. That team featured pre-ace Carp as its top starter; Jason Marquis, Woody Williams, and Jeff Suppan providing a ton of average innings; and post-fastball Matty Mo holding things down at the party end of the rotation. It got by without a truly dominating stopper because there were no rotation collapses to stop; when you've got a bunch of 30 start types in the rotation you don't have to worry about hitting the Parisi-Thompson-Boggs trifecta, or anything like that.

The Lohse contract makes me think the 2009 Cardinals are being built along these lines, because he is the Platonic #3-4 form in a system like this. He's neither fringe average, like Jackson or Morris, nor borderline ace, like Carp or Shields, and he's made a lot of starts without incident in the past.

So he's locked into that #3 role. If you can get yourself to buy into the rosiest scenarios for Wainwright and Wellemeyer—if you can imagine Pineiro splitting the difference between 2007 and 2008—well, you're still a pitcher short. And you realize that spending $10 million on the bulk-average part of your five-stalwarts rotation makes scrounging together five rotation stalwarts tough.

But looking at it this way I can almost rationalize the signing—can even see myself, eventually, rationalizing the signing. If an ace costs $20 million a year, and you have a guy who might be the ace, then maybe you spend $25 million on two pitchers and see if you can keep the replacement level starters off the lineup card as much as possible. We'll see if that's the way the offseason develops.

Bonus baseball today: before going their separate ways once more the LCS schedules pass each other, tragically, like two ships in the night. Multi-game thread in the afternoon.

NLCS Game 3 Open Thread

chuckb — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 00:00:05 -0000

The Dodgers absolutely have to have this one. Fortunately for them, nobody has more career homers off Jamie Moyer than Manny Ramirez. Most interesting about Jamie Moyer is that, this year, he has almost no platoon split. It's actually not that surprising since he's basically a fastball/changeup pitcher. He'll throw an occasional curve but this year, about 95% of his pitches were fastballs, cut fastballs or changeups. Lefties in the lineup take away that change, his best pitch, and force him to basically become a fastball (if you dare call it that, at 81 mph) only pitcher. Loney and Ethier may have some success tonight as well.

I'd expect the Dodgers to win tonight's game. These 2 teams are just too evenly matched for this series to be a blowout. I'd still expect at least 6 games here, if Torre does the right thing and starts Kershaw tomorrow. Kuroda should do fine tonight, the Dodgers' pen finishes it off, and the series is on serve heading into game 4 tomorrow. (knock on wood!)

Middle infield follow up

chuckb — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 11:00:06 -0000

First of all I want to add a couple of addenda to yesterday’s post about middle infielders. While I feel pretty strongly that an addition at shortstop will add more value to the team than an addition to second base will, I completely ignored many Cards’ fans’ favorite at the keystone – Orlando Hudson. I’d be derelict in covering the middle infield situation w/o explaining why. There are three reasons:

First, Hudson will be 31 when next season begins. He’s not getting any younger. It’s not that big a deal since Furcal will also be 31 next year. Second, he’s been injured each of the last 2 seasons – playing only 109 games this season following surgery on his wrist. His 2007 injury was for a torn ligament in his thumb. Most importantly, however, he was a -4 in fielding +/- this season. He has a reputation of being an outstanding fielder – well-deserved considering the fact that he finished #5 and #3 among second basemen in the previous 2 seasons. However, considering the fact that there was a precipitous drop in his defensive play this season – the year he turned 30, it makes me wonder how much value he’ll really have in the next 3 seasons. Add all that together, and is he really a $25 or $30 M improvement over Aaron Miles – particularly when it would likely preclude a similar improvement at shortstop, in the rotation, or in the pen?

I casually mentioned the possibility of trading for one of the Angels’ shortstop prospects. Brandon Wood has been one of the top prospects in baseball, and now appears to be blocked by Erick Aybar. Or would the Angels rather trade Aybar to promote Wood? And what about Sean Rodriguez, who actually may have passed Wood as a prospect? The problem is that both Wood and Rodriguez have serious plate discipline issues – issues that may preclude either from becoming solid major-league players. As a major leaguer this year, Wood had 4 BBs to 43 Ks. Yuck! It doesn’t get much worse than that. In his career as a minor leaguer, he has 2.66 Ks for every walk. At least he has very good power for a middle infielder. Still, we may be looking at a guy who’ll have a career OBP in the .300 to .320 range. Is he the guy we want?

Rodriguez had 14 BBs to 53 Ks this season w/ the Angels. For his minor league career, he’s averaged 1.85 Ks for every walk, has less power than Wood, and he may truly be a second baseman, rather than a shortstop. Aybar may actually be the worst hitter of them all – 14 BBs to 45 Ks this year and he has little power, less than the other 2. But Aybar is a very good defensive player – registering a +7, tied for 9th in the big leagues in about 60% of the season. I still see Zobrist as better than any of them but think that the Angels would trade at least 1 if they got the right deal – and it wouldn’t cost Rasmus.

The other 2B options I didn’t address included Jarrett Hoffpauir – a guy who, I once likened to a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia. Now, I’ll admit that he didn’t do much to live up to Pedroia, but he did walk more than he struck out and he had a 27.6% extra base hit rate. I think he still has a chance, but he’s not a top prospect. It doesn’t help that Tony, allegedly, doesn’t like his defense.

Another option, potentially, is Brian Barden. He’s played most of his minor league career as a third sacker and has a very good defensive reputation. He played a lot of SS at Memphis this year and for the Olympic team. There’s a pretty good chance he could handle 2nd. The thing that triggered the idea of using Barden at 2nd, or at least giving him a shot in the spring to win the job, is the success that Blake DeWitt of the Dodgers has had making this transition. DeWitt came up as a 3B and moved to 2B when the Dodgers traded for Casey Blake. He’s become a solid defensive 2B, or at least appears to be solid in the admittedly limited time I’ve had to view him, and his offense seems to be more suited to 2nd as well. He didn’t really hit enough to stick at third. That’s been one of the knocks on Barden as well.

I’ll preface this by saying that Barden is 3 ½ years older than DeWitt. He’s not young, for a prospect. He’ll turn 28 as the season starts next year. But if you compare his minor league numbers to DeWitt’s, they’re very similar. DeWitt’s career minor league slash lines were .280/.333/.446. Barden’s are .294/.349/.445. Barden appears to have slightly less power – less of a problem at the keystone than at the hot corner – but a similar ability to get on base. They both have about a 7% walk rate in the minors. His minor league translations from BP aren’t as good as DeWitt’s – probably b/c of the age difference – DeWitt has yet to peak and Barden’s probably in his peak years. But what do we have to lose by giving him and Hoffpauir a shot?

If they fail, we have Miles, who is adequate. I’m not sure I see the need to bring in Lopez who is, potentially, a better offensive player (although potentially much worse as well, to which the Nationals can attest) but who also is likely to give back most of his offensive gains through his horrendous defense. Can’t one of Barden, Hoffpauir, and Miles serve as our utility infielder if they can’t make it as a starter? Hoffpauir probably can’t play short, but we could use Miles as the backup SS and go w/ Hoffpauir at 2B. I know, Miles isn’t good at SS (though his +/- this year at SS was pretty good) but again, he’s probably better than Lopez. I’m resigned to the fact that they’ll bring Lopez back but I really don’t see the need. It will be a colossal error if Mozeliak gives Lopez more than 1 guaranteed year.

Goold, at the p-d, dealt w/ the Furcal issue a couple days ago. He’s definitely an upgrade, if he’s healthy, and b/c he’s a free agent, wouldn’t require the bounty that Tulowitzki would. Still, the more I watch the Rays the more I think Skip could get us Zobrist. Maybe Skip’s not that much better than Gabe Gross against righties (.822 career OPS vs. .786) but a platoon of Skip and Rocco Baldelli sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? They get some improvement in their lineup and on defense for a utility IF (for them) – a guy who doesn’t figure to ever be their starting SS. We get a good young SS for the next 5 years and we open up a spot for Rasmus. They’d have to consider it, wouldn’t they? Unless their playoff run makes them feel like they need to add more power than Skip would provide.

As I was watching the Rays even the series ~~last night~~ at 12:30 this morning, it occurred to me that there may be another option at SS – Julio Lugo. Let’s see, he’ll be 33 in a month, is owed $9 M in 2009, and $9 M in 2010. He had an OPS+ of 80 this year and his fielding +/- was -2. He "slugged" a whopping .330. Ok, never mind!

A lot of Cards had breakthrough seasons this year, and some others began to establish themselves as legitimate major leaguers. If nothing else, it give Mo a lot of options in terms of improving the middle infield situation. Maybe Furcal’s the best option. But, if he is, he’s the best option for several teams – not just us and losing him to another bidder wouldn’t necessarily make our DeWitt "cheap" – though that’s how many Cards’ fans will portray him. We need a plan B.

ALCS Game 2 Open Thread

chuckb — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 00:00:06 -0000

It's a matchup of 2 houston area high school phenoms in tonight's game as Josh Beckett goes up against Scott Kazmir. The Rays absolutely must win this game lest they go back to Boston down 0-2. If they find themselves in that situation, Tampa's seen their last playoff game for at least a year.

God knows what'll happen tonight. Should be a great pitching matchup but Boston has beaten up Kazmir this year -- 18 ER in 18 IP. Beckett's been quite good vs. TB this year (2.07 ERA) but the Rays have seen him 5 times already. If they don't hit him tonight, it won't be from a lack of familiarity.

As always, check out the sbnation postseason portal w/ links to the Rays and Sox sites or just enjoy the talk here. Let's go Rays. If for no other reason, than to get 6 or 7 out of the series.

Middle of the road

chuckb — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 11:00:05 -0000

You say the darndest things...

The worst kept secret in the Midwest this offseason is that the Cards need to make some changes to their middle infield. We know well of Adam Kennedy’s strange, yet fortuitous, demand to be traded. We know that Cesar Izturis and Felipe Lopez are free agents. And we know that Tony loves Aaron Miles (and, oh, btw, he’s arbitration eligible.) The Cards also have Brendan Ryan on hand, who will probably end up as a utility infielder in Memphis.

In trying to sort through the detritus that is our middle infield situation, it’s reasonable to wonder which of these MIFs should be back and which should be allowed to be on their merry way. Tony seemed to have no discernible pattern, for most of the year anyway, with his starters at the keystone and short. Izturis played almost every day – presumably b/c of his outstanding defense. I guess I shouldn’t use the word "presumably" since his offense was so horrendous that it absolutely MUST have been b/c of his defense. At second, Miles got much more playing time than Kennedy. There’s a certain strangeness to this b/c Kennedy was, by far, the better defensive player. It would have been understandable to play the better defensive player at each position w/ the idea that, since they offer very little offensively, you should save as many runs as possible on the defensive end. Yet Miles got considerably more playing time at 2nd for most of the year.

So, ok, you go w/ Miles at 2nd most of the time to compensate for the fact that you’re getting nothing offensively from your SS – at least you’ll get some offense at one of the two positions. And, as critical as I’ve been of Miles, he did have the best offensive season of his career -- highest OBP, highest slugging %, highest OBP and OBP+ (by far), and the highest isolated power of his career. He struck me, for most of the season, as the Cards best middle infielder largely b/c of his defense. It was my belief that Kennedy and Izturis offered less of a difference defensively than Miles offered offensively.

If Miles was, in fact, better than the other 2, and worthy of so much playing time, then where was he after the club’s acquisition of Felipe Lopez? Lopez played his first game w/ the birds on the bat on August 6. As a Cardinal he had 169 PAs in those 7 weeks. In that same time period, Aaron Miles had 107. Cesar Izturis had 153 PAs following Lopez’s arrival. The oddity of these numbers lie in the idea that Lopez arrived w/ the pedigree of a horrendous defensive player. No one’s playing time suffered more than Miles’ after Lopez’s arrival. Lopez’s offense was great as a Cardinal, but don’t you give back any gains w/ his defense? And, if his defense doesn’t matter, why not sit Izturis and his feckless offense and play Miles at SS. Yes, Miles is not a good SS, but Lopez isn’t a good 2B so, if Tony made the decision to go w/ offense over defense – as reasonable a decision as choosing defense over offense if the defense is really good – why is he still sticking Izturis at SS? There seemed to be no consistency or pattern to it. The one thing we could say for certain is that Tony, and likely Mozeliak, wanted to see what Lopez had to offer in light of the fact that he was a free agent this offseason.

Deep down, if I was going to rank the Cards’ middle infielders in terms of their value to the club this year, I would go w: 1. Miles; 2. Lopez; 3. Izturis; 4. Kennedy; 5. Ryan. If you want to compare their values throughout the year, including Lopez’s time w/ the Nationals (where he created a new definition for the term "awful"), he’d probably be between Kennedy and Ryan. If you get released by the Nationals, you’re plenty bad! Let’s see how right I am!

	BRAA	fielding +/-	FRAA	TRAA	RAA per 560 PAs
Izturis	-12	+19	14	2	2.5
Kennedy	-5	+19	14	9	13.8
Lopez	-2	-12	-9	-11	-11.6
Miles	2	+6	4.5	6.5	8.9
Ryan	-9	+1	1	-8	-20.5

BRAA is batting runs above average, as compiled by Baseball Prospectus. +/- is John Dewan’s fielding plays above average and the FRAA, fielding runs above average, is based on their +/-. Then there’s what I call total runs above average and the total runs normalized for 560 PAs. Many, if not most of you won’t believe this, but Adam Kennedy was our BEST middle infielder last year, not our worst (Ryan excepted). His defense at the keystone was that good. Now, his offense was atrocious, but better than Izturis’ and his defense was also better than Izturis’. Miles was solid, and even above average defensively, but he didn’t add enough offensively to keep up w/ what Kennedy brought defensively. Lopez was bad, b/c of his numbers w/ the Nats, despite the fact that his defensive numbers were the best of his last 3 years. Make no mistake, Felipe Lopez is exactly THAT BAD defensively. Ryan sucked.

If you’d rather use BP’s fielding numbers, Miles would be 1, followed by Kennedy, and then Izturis, Lopez, and Ryan. Still, the idea that Kennedy would be one of our best (should I say "least bad?") middle infielders instead of one of our worst would have surprised me a great deal. That doesn’t mean, of course, that he was good. He wasn’t. But I think it does tell us exactly how bad Izturis truly was. If you like him for his defense, you should like Kennedy better b/c Kennedy added as much in fewer innings, and hurt us less at the plate, in fewer PAs, than Izturis.

As for next year, it’s pretty clear to me that Miles will be back and that Kennedy probably won’t. I’d bet that Lopez is back as well. Can we get by w/ some sort of Lopez/Miles combo at 2nd? It could be worse, I guess. The question then becomes which one of them is our backup SS? AZ made the point pretty eloquently last week that it was foolish to keep 4 middle infielders on the roster. Astoundingly, Miles is actually the better SS, which tells you something about Lopez’s defense. The other thing I see is that acquiring a SS should be a higher priority than acquiring a 2B. Yes, Brian Roberts would be nice to have, but SS is clearly the bigger area of need.

So, who may be available?

	BRAA	fielding +/-	FRAA	TRAA
Cabrera	-5	+1	.7	-4.3
B. Crosby	-17	-13	-9.8	-26.8
Furcal ‘07	-9	+6	4.5	-4.5
Renteria	-7	-9	-6.7	-13.7
Tulowitzki	-7	+4	3	-4
Zobrist	9	-6	-4.5	4.5

I went ahead and used Furcal from ’07 due to a paucity of playing time last season and, b/c Tulowitzki played 101 games last season, I used it instead of ’07. I think we can probably all agree that both are better than the numbers shown above. Tulowitzki was the best defensive SS in the big leagues in ’07 and Furcal has only had 1 bad offensive year in his career – in ’07. Both, as you can see, are above average defensive players. It’s a good question as to whether Furcal will remain so as he ages and considering his back problems but, based on the data we have, he’s still better than most.

As you can see, Crosby, Renteria, and Cabrera should, absolutely, be non-starters. The latter 2 are aging free agents. We should not go there. Crosby would require us to give up something of value. Thank you, no, Billy! There are some others we could consider – the Angels’ Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood or Sean Rodriguez, for example. Tulowitzki is definitely worth having. Is he worth trading what it would cost to get him? I’m not sure about that. I’d trade Ludwick for him, but I doubt that the Rocks would do that trade, even if we threw in Anderson, Jay, or Mortensen.

We could sign Furcal, who’s price tag may be rising w/ every PA he takes this postseason. He’ll cost a pretty penny, and he’s 31 (or will be in 2 weeks) but he’s a plus player offensively AND defensively. It’s not easy to find SS’s like that, and we wouldn’t have to trade for him. He is definitely a player to consider.

My choice, however, is Ben Zobrist of the Rays. He’s blocked in Tampa, now by Bartlett and soon when Reid Brignac is ready. He has 530 major league PAs and would be under the team’s control for 5 years. He was a plus player offensively this year and played 6 different positions for the Rays. He doesn’t seem to be a strong defensive player – he’s been -5, -7, and -8 at SS in his 3 partial seasons in the big leagues but his offense seems to be strong enough to overcome the defense. FWIW, he would have been in the middle of the pack in the AL, according to RZR. Since he’s blocked, there’s no reason the Rays won’t trade him, if we can find a sufficient match.

LCS game thread: Friday October 10

lboros — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 20:15:04 -0000

Game 2 of the NLCS; Game 1 of the ALCS. enjoy the baseball, enjoy the weekend.

alcs preview: tampa bay vs boston

lboros — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 12:58:39 -0000

if you're not already using SB Nation's postseason portal, you're really missing out. the affiliated blogs (Over the Monster, DRays Bay, The Good Phight, and True Blue LA) are all top-notch. simon says check them out.

this series features VEB’s adopted team, the tampa bay rays. in looking over their roster, i’m surprised at how few truly homegrown players they feature. what tampa has done is, in some ways, even more impressive than growing their own --- they’ve poached cheap young players from other organizations and knit them into a winning roster that feels homegrown:

pos	player	how acquired	age	yrs to fr. ag’cy
c	d navarro	trade (dodgers) for m hendrickson	24	3
1b	c pena	free agent	30	2
2b	a iwamura	free agent	29	2
ss	j bartlett	trade (twins), partial for d young	28	3
3b	e longoria	homegrown	23	7
lf	c crawford	homegrown	27	2
cf	b upton	homegrown	24	4
rf	g gross	trade (mil) for j butler	28	3
dh	c floyd	free agent	35	1
sp1	j shields	homegrown	26	6
sp2	s kazmir	trade (mets) for v zambano	24	4
sp3	m garza	trade (twins) for d young	24	5
sp4	a sonnanstine	homegrown	25	5

if they want to, the rays will be able to run most of this same team out there in 2011. yet just 3 everyday players and 2 starting pitchers came up through the ranks w/ this franchise, and nearly the whole bullpen comes from outside the organization. i’m not counting some key role players, including rocco baldelli (who starts against left-handers) and ben zobrist; david price will probably be in next year’s rotation, and reid brignac may join the starting lineup at shortstop. so they’re becoming more homegrown, rather than less.

in that respect, tampa bay is aping (roughly) the model that made the kansas city royals so good back in the 1970s. the royals (for those of you who are old enough to recall) got good with other teams’ young players --- amos otis (snagged from the mets), john mayberry (astros), hal mcrae (reds), freddie patek (pirates), darrell porter (brewers) --- and then became a dynasty by rolling in homegrown players like george brett, frank white, willie wilson, and al cowens. beginning in the late 1970s, the royals churned out boatloads of mound talent --- dennis leonard, steve busby, paul splitorrf, rich gale, and dan quisenberry in the 1970s, then bret saberhagen, danny jackson, mark gubicza, et al all in the 1980s. the result: 15 winning seasons, 7 playoff appearances, 2 pennants, and a championship in their first 21 years of existence.

surprisingly, the red sox rely on homegrown talent at least as much as the rays do. they drafted and groomed four of their starters --- at 1b (youklis), 2b (pedroia), ss (lowrie), and cf (ellsbury) --- and acquired a fifth (varitek) from the seattle farm system; he has spent his entire big-league career in boston. they gave 60 starts to homegrown pitchers during the season this year, and the back end of their bullpen for the playoffs (masterson and papelbon) is completely homegrown.

the series is a battle of ballparks, as much as anything. tropicana field was the al’s 4th lowest-scoring park, with an average run total 5 percent lower than average; fenway was the league’s 3d-highest scoring, with an average run total 7 percent above the norm. so the essential questions might be: a) will the red sox offense (2d in the league) be able to score at the trop, and b) will the rays’ pitchers (2d in the league in run prevention) be able to put up zeros at the fens? during the regular season, the answer to question A was no: boston hit just .216 / .303 / .365 at the trop and scored 33 runs in 9 games, or 3.7 per game; the sox went 1-8 in those games. the answer to question B was also no: tampa bay pitchers gave up 6 runs a game in fenway and allowed the red sox to hit .289 / .388 / .452; the sox went 7-2 at home. the rays have 4 games at home, which yields a not-insignificant advantage, and i don’t think they will be intimidated by the red sox: they won both of the head-to-head series played in september, when the division title (and october home-field advantage) was still very much up for grabs.

shields, who will start game 5 (if nec) at fenway, lasted a total of just 4.2 innings in his 2 starts there this season and gave up 11 runs, almost singlehandedly losing both games; but the sox could hardly touch him at the trop, scoring just 2 runs against him in 15+ innings. kazmir was vulnerable in either location --- he only had one decent start in 4 tries vs the red sox this year. the only tampa starting pitcher who thrived at fenway this year was andy sonnanstine; sure enough, he’ll start game 4. if it comes down to game 7, matt garza will face jon lester; garza had a 4.50 era vs the red sox this year, while lester dominated the rays (3-0, 0.90).

the teams are closely matched on paper, but i’m gonna pick the red sox to win for two reasons. one, i think they have more dominant players; the rays have superb depth and balance, but you need game-changers in the postseason and i think the red sox have more of those. and second, the red sox have the better bullpen --- that alone could decide the series.

i’ll be rooting for the rays in my heart, but my head says the sox will win. let’s make it 7 games.

NLCS Game 1 Open Thread

chuckb — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 00:00:06 -0000

So -- is it better to have home field advantage or win game 1 of the LCS? Since the playoffs expanded in 1995, the team w/ the home field advantage has won the series 14 times and lost 12. It almost makes no difference. However, winning the first game of the series has a much stronger correlation w/ winning the series. Teams that have won the first game of the LCS have gone on to win the series 17 times against 9 losses -- almost 2 out of every 3 times.

Tonight it's Hamels vs. Lowe. Looking at the teams initially, I thought Hamels was pretty easily the best starter on either staff. I was surprised to find out, however, that BOTH Lowe AND Billingsley finished w/ lower FIPs this year than Hamels. Hamels is, unquestionably, a terrific pitcher. I guess my surprise came in how good Lowe and, to a lesser degree, Billingsley were this year. In fact, Hiroki Kuroda ALSO finished w/ a lower FIP than Hamels. It's true that the Dodgers' pitchers faced weaker competition in better pitcher's parks, but even if you normalize for competition and park factors, Billingsley, Lowe, and Hamels were all about equally good this year.

Citizens Bank Park can have a big impact on this series. There are few parks in the game that are tougher on pitchers than Citizens Bank Park is. Fortunately for the Dodgers, Lowe is an extreme ground ball pitcher -- 60.3% GB%. Hamels had a 2.99 ERA at home this year. Can you believe he was slightly better at home than on the road? He yielded 15 homers in 117.2 IP at home. Should be a really great series. BTW, let's see what the reaction is during this series or the World Series when Brad Lidge gives up a homer. He's a fly ball pitcher and has been extremely lucky to have only given up 2 so far this year. How often will we get to see the Pujols homer during this series?

The NLCS begins

chuckb — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 11:00:06 -0000

Last year’s championship series featured 1 great matchup – a 7 game thriller that ended w/ Boston rallying from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Indians – and 1 blowout – the Rockies completed their tremendous improbable run to the World Series w/ a sweep of the Dbacks. Of course, the Rockies tremendous streak ended against the Dbacks as the Sox took it to them in what has, unfortunately, become World Series S.O.P – the World Series wipeout. This year’s LCS get started w/ a somewhat surprising matchup – the Dodgers (my brother’s favorite team) and the Phils.

There’s really no reason why the Cubs aren’t here – except for the fact that they’re the Cubs – which I would like to believe in despite my affinity for ridiculous things like facts. Well, there’s actually another reason. The Dodgers really took it to them in the Division Series. They won the 3 games by a combined score of 20-6. They out-hit them, out-pitched them and, particularly in game 2 (when the Cubs successfully accomplished the rarest of feats – the infield fielding grand slam) out-fielded them. The Phils series w/ the Brewers was only slightly more competitive. 3 of their 4 games were 3 or 2-run games.

The Dodgers strike me as a particularly interesting team this postseason. They are a team that was built w/ veterans in the hopes that these older players would return the team to glory. When that wasn’t working, they had the foresight to stick all these geezers on the bench and play their young players. Now their bench reads like an All-Star team from 10 years ago – Garciaparra, Kent, Andruw Jones, Pierre, Schmidt (DL). Surely somewhere somebody’s saying what an advantage the Dodgers have in this series w/ so many "proven vets" on their bench, all the while ignoring the fact that the team wouldn’t be here if those "proven vets" weren’t on the bench and were, instead, in the starting lineup. Did I mention that the Dodgers made the playoffs w/ "proven vet" Rafael Furcal on the DL instead of in the lineup?

Instead, they’ve got young, unproven yet talented players completing their lineup, rotation and bullpen. Finally, the team decided to let its young, uber-talented CF play every day and, wouldn’t you know it, he’s been terrific. They’ve got youngsters at 1B, C, and RF as well as their #2 starter and terrific setup man but, of course, they really took off when they acquired the outstanding right-handed hitting line-drive hitter w/ power – Manny Ramirez.

In a lot of ways, this team reminds me of the 2006 Cardinals. No one really expected them to be able to compete w/ the Cubs just like no one really expected the stumbling Cards to compete against the other NL teams 2 years ago. The Dodgers entered the playoffs w/ just 84 regular season wins – only 1 more than the Cards’ total in ’06. Like the Cards that year, their playoff lineup was distinctly different from the one they used for much of the season. During the ’06 season, the Cards suffered from a lot of injuries and rarely played w/ Eckstein, Edmonds, Rolen, Pujols, Belliard, and Duncan all in the same lineup. Part of that was due to injuries to Edmonds, Eckstein and Rolen. Part of that was due to Duncan’s mid-season promotion and Belliard’s trade deadline acquisition. In any case, the lineup almost had to have a meet-and-greet before taking the field in San Diego to begin the ’06 playoffs. This year’s Dodgers aren’t all that different.

Pierre and Kent began the season in the lineup (well, Pierre was platooning), as did Jones. Ramirez came over at mid-season. DeWitt took over for Kent and Casey Blake took over for DeWitt at third. Out of necessity, the Dodgers turned to their young guys. It became abundantly clear that they weren’t going anywhere w/ their $9 M, weak-armed and offensively feckless LF and their $14 M, offensively brutal CF in the lineup every day. To their credit, they finally did extricate Pierre and Jones from that lineup and replace them every day w/ Kemp and Ethier. It would have been easy to try to squeeze blood from the turnips that are the Pierre and Jones contracts but they ultimately determined that those contracts were sunk costs and, if they were going to win, it was time to put the vets on the bench and play the kids.

They turned to Kemp as the Cards turned to Wainwright in ’06 – only after doing everything they could to get the vet to work out. Finally, the teams were left w/ no other option – remember, the Cards tried Braden Looper before turning to Wainwright in September, 2006 – and it was either play the kids or watch the postseason on TV. The Cards in ’06 got a lot out of Jeff Weaver in the playoffs and the unheralded bullpen of Kinney, Johnson, and Wainwright. The Dodgers, too, have an unheralded but very strong pen consisting of Jonathan Broxton, Joe Beimel, Cory Wade, and Takashi Saito. No one expected Weaver to pitch as well as he did in the playoffs and I doubt people expect much from Hiroki Kuroda – probably b/c they don’t know who the hell he is.

The Cards had to face an ostensibly daunting Mets’ offense in ’06. Even so, as powerful as the group of Beltran, Delgado, Wright, and Reyes seemed to be, if you looked beyond the surface, the Mets had some pitching problems. Pedro wasn’t healthy. Maine was unproven and Oliver Perez was downright crazy. He’s still probably crazy though he’s a much better pitcher than he was in 2006. The Mets did have a relatively stable hand in the aging left-hander Tom Glavine – a guy who was still managing to get people out every now and then on guile and a pretty good changeup.

The Phils seem to be a pretty similar team. Wagner was, if not as dominant as Lidge has been this year, pretty damned good – So Taguchi and Yadi notwithstanding. The top of the Phils’ rotation is much stronger as Hamels is one of the best pitchers in the NL. Beyond that, though, they have their issues. Moyer is their Glavine – he could be OK. Is Brett Myers John Maine or is he Oliver Perez? I’m not sure. Blanton just isn’t that good. The bottom line is that the Phils have 1 starter they can count on to combat Lowe, Billingsley and Kuroda. Even Maddux vs. Blanton is, at best, a wash for the Phils.

Their lineup, however, is salty. Playing the roles of Wright, Delgado, Beltran and Reyes will be Burrell, Howard, Utley, and Rollins. Beyond them, though, they have some spots where they can be pitched to. Feliz, though excellent defensively, is horrible offensively. Carlos Ruiz is no Russell Martin. Victorino’s a nice player but one that likely won’t hurt you too bad. Jayson Werth has really become a pretty good ballplayer as well. The Phils are no slouches, that’s for sure.

All that said, I like the Dodgers in 6. The Phils were really hot to end the season and were never seriously challenged by the Brewers in the Division Series but the Dodgers this year, like the Cards in ’06, aren’t at all the same team they were for most of the season. The Phils were 8 games better in the regular season but the Dodgers’ Pythagorean record was actually 2 games better than their 84-78 record would indicate. Still, it’s not the same team. Billingsley, like Hamels, has become one of the best starters in the NL and he’ll pitch twice in this series. Lowe is better than anyone else the Phils have and Kuroda probably is as well. The Phils’ pen isn’t horrible but the Dodgers’ is outstanding. Broxton, Kuo, and Saito all averaged well over a strikeout an inning and Beimel (a free agent after the season, Mr. Mozeliak!) is really tough on lefties. He’ll get a lot of work against Howard and Utley, in particular. Kuo’s another lefty, if he’s healthy enough to be on the roster, and lookout for Dodger phenom Clayton Kershaw – another young ‘un who could really create some problems for the Phils. Saito’s been banged up of late and hasn’t pitched well since returning from the DL. Dodgers’ fans are probably rightly concerned about Broxton stepping into the closer’s role w/ so little experience. Wainwright’s postseason performance in 2006 ought to comfort them some.

At the plate, the Dodgers have almost no real holes. Blake’s not a star and neither is DeWitt, but they both have OBPs over .340 and Blake’s OPS is over .800. Their lineup’s not as strong at the top as the Phils’, but neither is it as weak at the bottom. Both teams rank in the middle of the pack defensively, w/ THT ranking the Phils as slightly better than the Dodgers but, provided they have no Cubs-like breakdowns in the field, their pitching should be enough to pull them through. One interesting thing to watch will be the slight change in format instituted this year. Instead of playing games 3, 4, and 5 on consecutive days, there’s now a day off between games 4 and 5, and then again between 5 and 6 as the teams fly back to Philly. How that will affect the teams’ pitching rotations should be an interesting thing to watch for since there’s no precedent for how to handle it.

I’ll get a game thread up a little later so that we can all enjoy what should be a pretty competitive and exciting series between the two teams.

Dear Mr. and Mrs. Mozeliak, Part Deux

the red baron — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:36:02 -0000

Enclosed you will find Johnny's final grades for the term. I just want to say, once again, what a tremendous pleasure it has been having him in class this year. You will recall, back at the midpoint of the term, I sent along Johnny's grades, along with notes for possible areas of improvement. I have endeavoured to provide you with a similar report at this point, in the hopes that we can work together to further your son's development.

There are, of course, opportunities for improvement. I have done what I can to identify said areas, and I trust that you will take any and all steps necessary to see that these areas are given the appropriate attention. Remember, a symbiotic relationship between the institutional and the home is of paramount import when a child's future is in question.

All in all, it has been a productive and exhilarating year for me, and I hope for the students as well. As always, if you have any questions, concerns, or just wish to check in on some bit of minutiae in the progress that John has made, I encourage you to contact me at any time. Until such time as we speak again, I remain,

Sincerely Yours,

Dr. Reginald Ecthelion Dante "Red" Barontonoviel

P.S.- Overall, John's conduct this year was exceptional: however, I would request you please ask him to stop forcing everyone to call him 'Mr. Mo'.

You may all recall I took a look at the job that John Mozeliak did in his first offseason as the Cardinals' General Manager. Well, now that the first actual baseball season of Mo's regime has been completed, I thought it would be a good time to look back at the moves Mr. Mozeliak made, as well as those he didn't make. After all, it's all well and good to grade job performance sans results, but in the end, the results are what really matter. So how did Mr. Mo do?

I thought we would just go right through the same list that I used before, and see if the grades look any different now, as compared to the January edition of the Cardinals.

Organisational Direction

When Mozeliak took over the Cardinal front office, there was turmoil everywhere. He quickly moved to establish at least a semblance of order, of continuity, of just flat out order. At the very least, the work Mo did to try and unite the Cards' house divided was one of the real bright spots of the early part of the offseason.

Now, though, we hear once again of problems within the team's management structure. It no longer seems that Mozeliak and La Russa, his on field manager, are quite on the same page. Of course, it's impossible to pin the blame one place or another; there is such a thing as positive tension, and the conflict between uniformed personnel and the front office types may just be one of those cases. One way or the other, though, you still have to wonder whether or not the harmony that Mozeliak worked so hard to establish will prove to be lasting or not.

Overall Grade: B

Organisational Hiring

All right. I'm going to level with you guys. I honestly don't have much of an idea how these things worked out. To tell you the truth, I'm not sure I would be able to tell if an assistant GM were doing a good job or not. So I'm just going to cop right out on this one and say that hey, all the new Cardinal hires are sailing right along, doing whatever it is they're supposed to be doing.

With one notable exception. The one and only person on this list that I do think has done a great job this year is Brent Strom, the Cards' new pitching coordinator. I was impressed early on with the resume that Strom brought to the position, and I've become more and more impressed with all that I've seen from Strom as the year has gone on. From his preseason mini camps for the Cards' top prospects to the whole 'classic mechanics' paradigm that is just beginning to take root in the organisation, I think Strom is one of the brightest, and most intriguing, minds I've come across in a long time in the game. Fantastic hire.

Overall grade: A

On Field Moves

Resigning Joel Pineiro

Oy. This one isn't looking so good, is it? Score one for the 'regress to the mean' crowd. Still, the circumstances here were less than ideal, with lots of uncertainty and funky timing. Regardless, you can't escape the fact that, based on a handful of starts not at all in line with the direction Joel was heading, the Cardinals handed a two year deal to a pitcher who put up an ERA over 5.00 this year. Boooo.

Grade: D

Picking up Izzy's Option

Now this is interesting. What we ended up with was a player who badly damaged the team's chance to win this season, yet it's tough to really say that anyone should have seen it coming. In the end, I still think that picking up the option on Isringhausen was the right move, even though it didn't end up working out so well.

Bitter irony department: and I quote, "What .500 team (or worse), team really needs an $8 million closer?" Well, as it turns out, if the Cardinals' had had a competent closing corps, they wouldn't have been nearly as close to .500 as they ended up. Sigh.

Grade: B+

Declining to offer Eckstein arbitration/ signing Cesar Izturis

It's funny how things work out sometimes, isn't it? Back in January, I really didn't like this move. I thought that offering Eck arbitration was a no brainer, especially considering who the Cards ended up getting to replace him.

In this case, Izturis actually turned out to be a slightly better signing than I had expected. And yes, I say that with full knowledge that he was a truly awful offensive player this year. However, his defense was a significant upgrade over Eckstein, and the improved middle infield defense had a lot to do with the success that the Cardinal starters were able to enjoy this season. Eckstein didn't exactly tear it up north of the border, nor, to be honest, once he got to Arizona either. I'm actually grading up on this one. Don't get me wrong, I don't really want to see Cesar back in a Cardinal uniform next season, but he actually wasn't as big of a disaster as I had feared. Most of what I thought back then does, in fact, still ring fairly true, but at least we got one plus tool, a glove, out of the deal.

Grade: C+

Trading Jim Edmonds for David Freese

Wow. Um, well, this wasn't too bad, huh? Yes, it was very, very difficult to watch Jimmy Baseball play some good ball in a Cubs' uni, but I think we all see just how necessary it was to move him. Do we see the breakout of Ryan Ludwick this year if Edmonds is still around taking at bats? What about Ankiel? The Cards needed opportunity in the outfield, and that's just what they got. Plus, David Freese was a legitimate contender for the organisational Player of the Year award, proving himself a legit prospect even though he's a little old. Fantastic deal all around.

Grade: A

Signing Matt Clement

Sigh. Was it terrible to bring Clement in? No. He was a higher upside arm than some of the other guys out there on the cheap. In the end, though, Clement never threw a pitch for the Cardinals, and was released during the season when it became clear his stuff just wasn't coming back. A justifiable risk, but I think it's fair to wonder whether the Cards should have seen it coming a bit more than they seemed to.

Grade: D

Signing Jason LaRue

I said then that LaRue is a backup catcher and, as such, represents a ridiculously unimportant move. Well, that was before I got a look at the awesomeness that is the Jason LaRue lifestyle. The hair. The 'stache. You just can't get that kind of greatness very often.

In all seriousness, LaRue was quite good as a backup this season. He hit a little better than I thought, and he did a nice job behind the plate. Another good signing.

Grade: B

The Aaron Miles Saga

I have no idea how I feel about this one, honestly. I was happy when the Cards let Miles go, then ticked off when they brought him back. Then he goes out and has a fairly productive year. It wasn't the worst move, as Brendan Ryan certainly bombed, but I still don't see that Miles is really that vital a part of the team. But such is the state of the St. Louis middle infield. It's all just plain blah.

Grade: C+

Releasing So Taguchi

Absolutely the right move. See the Jim Edmonds situation for additional details on the OF crunch.

Grade: A

Scotty Ro for Troy Glaus

This. Was. Awesome. While Rolen continued to have shoulder troubles later in the year as he wore down again, Glaus was everything the Cardinals expected, and more. His defense was far better than I had been expecting, and his bat was right about as advertised. There was that odd little power outage to begin the year, but sometimes things like that just happen. Add to that that he had not a whiff of the foot troubles that helped to depress his stock in the first place, and this one is a slam dunk.

Grade: A

Picking up Brian Barton in the Rule 5

Once again, a move that worked out quite well. Was it frustrating watching Barton play less than a lot of us here felt he should? Absolutely. However, this is a Mozeliak report card, and he doesn't fill out the lineup card.

Barton proved himself capable with the bat, exciting on the bases (though I wish he had been given the green light a bit more often), and just fine in the outfield. I think the arm concerns in ST turned out to be largely overblown. In the end, the Cards added a player with the tools to be at least a platoon outfielder for basically nothing. Not a bad day's work.

Grade: A

Newer moves

These are moves that hadn't happened yet when I did this before. Pretty self explanatory, yes?

Kyle Lohse

The signing of Kyle Lohse just may have been the turning point of the season. Up until then, there was a palpable sense of foreboding hanging over the Cards' season before it even started. The rotation looked to be a mess, and the offense had been positively offensive in the spring. When Joel Pineiro went down with a groin strain and looked to miss the first couple weeks of the season, it looked as if 2008 was going to be a miserable repeat of 2007.

And then came Kyle.

One of the big name free agent pitchers of the offseason, Lohse had found himself sitting home in mid spring training, waiting to see if any team needed his services when the Cardinals came calling. He signed a one year, $4.25 million deal, and the rest, as they say, is history. Mo gets a ton of credit here for acting quickly and decisively to bring in help for the rotation in order to keep his team from starting in an even deeper hole. Face it; George Peppard couldn't have brought a deal together any better than this.

Note: I'm only considering the one year deal and Lohse's performance this year here. The contract he just signed is part of this offseason in my opinion, and I'm only interested in things that affected the 2008 season. The extension is a separate issue.

Grade: A

Trading Anthony Reyes for Luis Perdomo

Let's face it: Mo did the best he could to try and make it work for Anthony here. Unfortunately, when things get to a certain point of broken, it just ain't gonna happen. Such was the situation with Reyes and the Cards. I admired how Mo stepped in at the end of ST and kept Anthony on the team, going against La Russa and Duncan to do so. That shows real leadership. Unfortunately, in the end, the Cards still ended up dealing one of their former top prospects for a Double A reliever. Perdomo could end up being decent, but even so, it's a poor reflection on the organisation the way this whole thing worked out. Mozeliak did probably as good a job as could be expected, all things considered.

Grade: C

The Deadline (Non) Moves

Now, this one is quite likely to create some real controversy. There was quite a lot of angst at the time, mostly from a certain segment of fans, over Mo's failure to get anything done at the deadline to improve the team, particularly the bullpen. Easy to see why, when you consider that the 'pen is probably the single biggest reason the Cardinals' players are making tee times right now, rather than still playing baseball.

On the other side, the manager was clamouring for an impact bat, though where that bat was going to play is still a bit of mystery to me, to be completely honest. La Russa went so far as to question the team's commitment to winning in the press, at least in an indirect, passive aggressive sort of way. Add in all the rumours flying around about Matt Holliday and his Coors Field Park Factor Power being on the block, and you have a pretty tough situation to navigate.

And in the middle of all this, you had Mo, the first year GM, trying not to pull a Jack, as in And the Beanstalk. The Rockies apparently wanted two top prospects for lefty reliever Brian Fuentes, and Fuentes now reportedly wants something in the range of 3/$37 for the pleasure of his company. You look around the league, and virtually none of the players rumoured to be on the move ended up going anywhere. To me, that speaks of a trade market that got out of hand, big time.

Really, the only guy that I wish the Cards could have gotten their hands on was Damaso Marte, the lefty reliever from the Pirates. He ended up going to the Yankees along with Xavier Nady in a deal that probably didn't add up all that well from the Pittsburgh side of the ledger. Of course, Marte then got hurt, so there is that to consider, and the asking price for a divisional rival may very well have been steeper, so I can't really throw much of a fit here, either.

After the smoke cleared, the Cardinals were the team they were before the deadline. And, on balance, I think that was probably the best result we could have hoped for. Was it frustrating to watch the team fall out of contention down the stretch and wonder what might have been? Yes. But the price that likely would have been paid to upgrade the team in any meaningful way would have been steep indeed; probably much steeper than made sense for this team. Sometime you just have to bite the bullet and take the punch. I think it was absolutely the right (non) move to make. Were there some other creative deals that might have been put together? Maybe, which is why I can't give an unequivocal A here. Still, this was for the best, all things considered.

Grade: B+

Signing Felipe Lopez

Yes, I'm aware of all the reasons why Floppy is a bad bet going forward. I've made all those arguments myself, hoping to stave off the (likely) inevitable contract he's going to get. Unsustainable BABIP, terrible defense, and all that.

Yet I'm going to give Mo a decent grade on bringing in Lopez here. Sustainable or not, Lopez has more athleticism, offensively at least, than any of the other middle infielders the Cards have on the roster. Using him in the outfield is an awful idea, but again, Mo doesn't fill out the lineup cards. I don't want to see Lopez back next year, not even as a backup, to be honest, but bringing him in was a low risk move with just enough possible payoff to make it worthwhile.

Grade: B-

Leaving Colby at home

Ah, the final piece of the puzzle. This one's really going to get everyone up in arms, and rightly so. Depending on where you stand, this is either a bullshit point that the anti- La Russa faction brings up to try and knock down your hero, or this is a monumental failure by a franchise to leverage one of its most valuable assets, instead preferring to play utility infielders in center field during a pennant race. As usual, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

I was not at all happy that Rasmus didn't get the call, to be honest with you. I think it would have been a fantastic opportunity to get the kid into the clubhouse, and allow him to begin the process of getting acclimated to the majors, if only a little bit. And when you're running Adam Kennedy out into right field on a daily basis, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong. If nothing else, we know that Colby plays an excellent defensive center field, so even if he didn't hit, he would have been adding to the team.

Then again, he was hurt, and I'm sure there were concerns that he wasn't ready to be trying to play at a high level so soon. There was thought that he would play winter ball, and he didn't tear up Triple A, and he's only 21, and he hasn't earned it, and yadda, yadda, yadda. Can you tell by my tone where I'm coming down on this one?

In the end, I think this one was a judgement call. You could certainly make an argument for either side, and I can see both points of view. Still, I wish Colby had gotten the call. Even if he hadn't played a lick, I think it would have been good for him to get here, get a look at the stadium, see the crowds, taste the dream. What better way to keep a guy's spirits up and keep him motivated than to give him a taste of what he's been working for all along? We should all remember that Colby is most likely going to be a huge part of this franchise's future for quite a while. At the very least, getting him to St. Louis for the learning experience alone would have been worth it. I think the organisation really missed a chance here.

Grade: D

Final Adjusted Grade: B+

I know we were all frustrated by the way the season ended. It got very, very ugly there at the end, and it left a bad taste in our collective mouths. Still, I think it's important to remember just how bad a lot of us thought this team would be. What we ended up with was an exciting, hungry bunch of players for most of the year that stayed in the race until very nearly the end. The farm system is intact, as Mozeliak managed to avoid getting overly anxious and jumping into a bad deal because the team was fairly close. We have a pretty good idea of what we have going forward with most of the players that needed to get a look. And most of all, with a whole boat load of money finally coming off the books this offseason, the Cardinals have some real flexibility. Let's hope they don't squander it all on magic beans.

Good job, Mr. Mo. All in all, I think you acquitted yourself quite admirably. I'll just bet you get that ten speed you were hoping for in the offseason.

tues odds n ends

lboros — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:18:05 -0000

g’morning everyone --- just keeping the seat warm today. a few items from here and there:

in september, a commenter suggested (and forgive me, i can’t find the post) that the cards’ fall from contention might aid pujols’ mvp chances --- because he might see more pitches to hit. that appears actually to have happened: as i noted last week at the Daily Fix, el hombre only drew 2 intentional walks in september --- after having been ibb’d 32 times in the first five months of the year. for whatever reason, teams were a lot more willing to challenge albert in september, and he took advantage of the opportunity to pad his counting stats: his 27 rbi in 24 september starts were nearly a quarter of his season total. that finishing kick propelled him to 4th in the nl leaderboard in rbi, and he wound up tied for 4th in the league in homers --- in other words, top 5 in all of the triple crown categories, which still carry a lot of sway among many bbwaa voters. those figures, combined w/ his superior rate stats and the lack of a suitable rival, might garner albert his 2nd mvp award.
you can vote for albert, by the way, in the Internet Baseball Awards over at Baseball Prospectus. pujols won the IBA MVP in both 2005 and 2006; he lost out last year to matt holliday.
one more albert item: Lookout Landing calls him the most underappreciated player in baseball.
as long as we’re talking awards, am i the only one who thinks sabathia deserves the national league cy young? granted he only pitched in our league for half a season --- he came over in time to make 17 starts, or 3 fewer than wainwright made this year (and 1 fewer than cc made in the american league). but nearly half his nl starts (7) were complete games, and he led the league in that category despite his limited playing time. he also tied for the league lead in shutouts --- not only in the nl (where he tossed 3) but also in the al (2 sho). that feat in and of itself ought to be good for some kind of award. another point in cc’s favor: from july 8 (when he joined the nl) forward he led the league in every pitching category except strikeouts, where he finished second. his 1.65 era was nearly half a run better than his next closest competitor during that span (santana, at 2.09), and he threw 18 more innings than the next hardest-working guy. his average start for milwaukee lasted 7 2/3 innings. to cap it off, he threw a complete-game 4-hitter on the last day of the season to put his team into the playoffs. he never yielded more than 4 runs in a game for milwaukee; he yielded 2 or fewer 10 times. i’d place sabathia among the top 3 in nl mvp this year.
as good as cc was, the brewers paid a pretty penny. they completed their trade for sabathia the other day by sending an outfielder named michael brantley over as the player to be named later. opinion’s divided on this guy --- he has exceptional on-base ability (career minor-league obp of .399) and good speed, and has handled high levels well at a young age --- reached double A at age 20 last year, spent all of 2008 there and posted a .319 / .395 / .398 line. the last figure in the slash lines is the knock on brantley --- no power. BA had him ranked as the 18th-best prospect in the southern league; john sickels rates him a B, and kevin goldstein likes him. he’s roughly comparable to john jay. so add that to the already high bounty milwaukee gave up for their 3 months of sabathia. (and, alas, cc wasn’t very good is his playoff game, was he. . . . .)
espn released their park factor calculations for 2008, and st louis rated as the 4th-toughest national league park to score in, trailing only petco (by far the most inhospitable hitting environment in baseball), dodger stadium, and pnc park in pittsburgh. overall it ranked 23d among the 30 nl teams. last year it ranked 22nd; in 2006 it ranked 20th; and in all three years, the runs scored there have fallen between 93 and 95 percent of average --- it, the park suppresses scoring by 5 to 7 percent. those are some pretty consistent scores, and they were achieved despite some pretty drastic personnel churn --- the only players who have held starting jobs all 3 years of the ballpark’s existence are pujols and molina (a fact that, in and of itself, is fairly shocking . . . . ). the cards’ home/road pitching split was narrower than usual in 2008, a mere 13 runs (vs 59 runs last year and 66 runs in 2006); their home era of 4.06 was right in line with previous figures (3.93 in 2006, 4.17 in 2007), but the card hurlers improved dramatically on the road in 2008.

no ballgames today; the final four is set, and VEB's adopted team is still alive. red sox appear to be the best team left, but that's just on paper --- which ain't worth nothing this time of year.

October 6, 2008 Playoffs Open Thread

DanUpBaby — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 20:45:04 -0000

All AL action today.

White Sox/Devil Rays at 4:07 Cardinals time. This one features two 25-year-old pitchers. Gavin Floyd goes for the Sox; he's the Phillies prospect with the big curveball who failed five or six big league trials in a row before winning 17 games (and outperforming his peripherals by a ton) this year.

The Devil Rays trot out Andy Sonnanstine, who is to old pitchers' skills what Travis Hafner was to old players' skills. He doesn't strike anybody out; he doesn't walk anybody; his fastball has been knocked out of the air by birds in flight. But when you walk less than forty batters in almost 200 innings and you have something vaguely resembling major league stuff you'll be successful, at least for a while. If you want to see what everyone was hoping Joel Pineiro would turn into this year, Sonnanstine's a good visual.

The late game, at 7:37, has the Angels bringing John Lackey into Boston, where he'll face Jon Lester. Winner gets to standardize the spelling of his first name.

Men with 30 saves and the other men who love them

DanUpBaby — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:15:04 -0000

Before we get started, a little personal-ad-writing. My name is Dan, and I'll be writing–should the current schedule hold up–the Monday, Tuesday, and Friday entries starting next week. I've been writing about the Cardinals for going on five years at Get Up, Baby!, often lauded as America's most punctuated baseball blog, and I'm very excited to continue my occasional analysis and playwriting at VEB. As for the personal ad, I'm a senior at the University of Missouri, majoring in English. Were it not for Ray Lankford's count-working exploits making me a baseball fan I would be making this introduction at PinballBlogNation, Viva El Jack Benny, or Gatsby Up, Baby.

What I like about Tony La Russa–in addition to his obvious talents as a Major League manager–is the sense of continuity you get, as a fan. When your team hires a new manager you have to learn their foibles. You have to figure out whether they're going to be combative, like Ozzie Guillen, or an up-and-comer, like Joe Maddon, or ready to strangle Jose Guillen, like Trey Hillman.

But with La Russa we know what we're getting. There's a comfort to this unchanging narrative, and I mean this completely sincerely. If I'm going to complain about something a manager does–and I am–I'd like to at least know what I'm in for, and that's where La Russa excels. It seems like only last week we were complaining about Dan Haren's role on the team, and now here we are complaining about Chris Perez's role on the team. Concrete roles, young players who are better than he seems to think they are–it just feels like home.

The end result is that the Cards are, tentatively, on the market for some relief pitchers, with closing credentials, to push the Chrisper (if not to subsume his role entirely.) The top free agent in the non K-Rod division–i.e., who won't cost the Cardinals $75 million–appears to be Brian Fuentes, who's gone from closer to has-been to closer so fast that if you look at the back of his baseball card it's difficult to tell which year he spent in a Turnbow-y limbo.

What's clear after the fact is that 2008 was his best season since the Rockies installed him in the closer role. His strikeout rate picked back up–11.7 K/9, sixth in baseball among relievers–and he only gave up three home runs. With B.J. Ryan still recovering from the effects of TJ surgery and Billy Wags due to undergo it he is almost certainly the best lefty reliever in the game. This would all be bad enough, for the Cardinals, but it gets worse: he picked up 30 saves again in 2008. It's not just a free agent deal, now–it's a closer deal.

We have a model for this deal in our NL Central backyard: Coco Cordero, currently keeping leads safe for the fifth place Reds. Cordero and Fuentes have had uncannily similar careers, so far. They were each a great closer for a few years; they each lost and regained the closer's role the year before they reached free agency (at the age of 31); and they each had a return-to-form contract year. Coco received a four year, $46 million contract for his troubles.

(You can see, now, where I'm going with this: Kyle Lohse needs to close for this team, and he needs to do it now.)

The market seems pretty certain about it: closers at their peak who manage to make it onto the free agent market–it's a tough role to succeed in all the way past one's arbitration years, as Chad Cordero is learning, and the good ones tend to start late or peak early–are worth around $10 million a year. B.J. Ryan will be making it through 2010; Brad Lidge and Joe Nathan, a cut above, are set up with $12 million deals.

These are the guys who have consistency to offer; the ones who are doing something, succeeding year after year, that we can't be sure Perez and Motte do. And that thing is valued at $10 million. You get down to $5 million, and you're talking to Kyle Farnsworth and Flash Gordon. You're talking to Jason Isringhausen. . . not that there's anything wrong with that.

So the Cardinals need to ask themselves something, heading into spring training, and it's not "Is Chris Perez ready to close?" It's this: "Is Chris Perez $10 million worth of not ready to close?"

This can be free agent shortstop money, or it can be free agent starter money, or it can be Chris-Perez-might-not-be-a-relief-ace-quite-yet money. Brian Fuentes would be hedging the wrong bet.

October 5, 2008 playoff games open thread

chuckb — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 18:15:46 -0000

Dammit. My local paper -- the Houston Comical -- is so shitty. It had hidden the start time of today's Phils-Brewers game so I'm an hour or so behind schedule. Here's the thread. We could finish off each series today.

young guns

chuckb — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 11:00:05 -0000

First of all, I want to say a few words about LB’s announcement from Tuesday. It pretty much echoes what everyone else has said. I have a ton of respect for Larry’s decision but, as I told him when he first told me of his decision, he has been the reason that VEB is one of the most respected baseball blogs out there. It’s not just Cards’ fans that recognize how great VEB is. VEB is universally recognized as one of the premier blogs and, while it’s not all attributable to him, he’s played a huge part in it. The substance of Larry’s daily threads set the standard and the tone for the intelligent and thoughtful baseball discussion that occurs here at VEB. We have some of the best members around and he deserves a lot of respect for fostering the sort of community that discusses the Cards thoughtfully and disagrees with one another respectfully all while the community has grown immensely. We are all a part of VEB’s greatness, but IMHO, LB set the standard and the tone for what has been expected here.

Needless to say, I was humbled when he asked me if I would be willing to take on some of the duties of administering VEB after his departure. It’s daunting but when he told me that DanUp was going to be coming on board as well, it made my decision so much easier. If you haven’t read Dan’s work at getupbaby then you’ll soon know why LB turned to Dan as well. I truly believe that, though LB will be missed around here, VEB will remain one of the premier blogs out there and I hope that you’ll all stick with us. I’ll be adding 2 days to my regular Sunday post – Thursdays and Saturdays. RB’s going to keep his regular Wednesday gig. We’re glad he’ll be sticking with us. Dan’s going to be with us on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Fridays. BTW, if you’re uneasy about LB’s departure, I think you’ll be seeing him here from time to time, perhaps even making a cameo on the main page on occasion.

Finally, in my own little tribute to LB – consider this our own little jersey retirement ceremony – I’ll be doing today’s thread, LB-style, w/ no capital letters. Here’s to you, LB!

i’m really tired. i’ve been staying up late watching the playoffs and, needless to say, took some joy last night in watching the cubs go down as quickly as they did last year. i know it sounds spiteful but, alas, i’m not a perfect man. as i’ve been watching the 4 series, one thing I’ve noticed is the large number of good, young pitchers in the 8 teams’ rotations. it’s like there’s one young gun after another taking the mound for their respective teams.

i wanted to see just how prevalent the young’uns were among the playoff teams. The conclusion: of the 29 starters who will be making postseason starts this year (counting ted lilly who now won’t be), only 11 of them are in their post-arbitration years. add in ben sheets, who would be starting if he were healthy and still might return for the nlcs if the brewers make it that far, 12 out of 30 are "veterans." the other 18 starters are still cost-controlled by their teams. a few of them have signed long-term contracts with their teams that bought out their last couple of arbitration years (kazmir, lackey, myers, sabathia) but even those have not yet reached eligibility for free agency. sabathia, of couse, does after the season ends. lackey’s in what would be his walk year if he hadn’t signed the long-term contract. still, 60% of the pitchers who would make postseason starts for their teams are in their first 6 years in the league. astounding!

would you believe that the average age among those starting pitchers is 28.17 years old – and that includes 45 year old jamie moyer! there are 5 24-year olds, 3 25-year olds, 2 26-year olds, a 23-year old (john danks), and a 22-year old (yovani gallardo – who started game 1 for the brewers and, though he walked 5, he gave up 0 er).

i divided the starters into 2 groups – those who are still cost-controlled by their teams, and those who have reached free agency. the post-free agency group of 12 pitchers (counting sheets) threw 2335.2 ip this year for an average fip of 3.91. these are the teams’ vets – buehrle, lowe, sheets, beckett, zambrano, et al – they probably pitched considerably better than the younger group, right? the younger group is filling out the rotation, pitching the 3rd and 4th games of the series, right? nope. the pre-free agency group of 18 pitchers threw more than 3354 ip this year – an average of 186.1 per pitcher – and that counts the 24 ip that gallardo was limited to due to his injury. their avg. fip – 3.92.

	# of pitchers	total innings	innings per pitcher	avg fip	avg salary
vets	12	2335.7	194.6	3.91	$9 m
young pitchers	18	3354.5	186.4	3.92	$2.46 m

put another way, the best teams in the majors turned more often, during the season and during the postseason, to young pitchers rather than vets. those young pitchers have pitched just as well over the course of the season as the vets have and thrown basically the same number of innings per pitcher as the vets. (as i said, the innings per pitcher stat for young pitchers is skewed by gallardo’s injury.) most obviously, the young pitchers cost their teams considerably less than the vets do as well. in fact, if you want to divide up the posting fee the red sox paid just to negotiate w/ matsuzaka over the 6 years of his contract, the average salary for the vets rises to $9.71 m per year – more than $7 m more than the kids are paid.

again, the best teams in baseball trust young starters more than vets. they’re also, by and large, smart enough not to overpay for mediocre starters. there are a few exception, however. these teams do have several vets earning big bucks who, nonetheless, haven’t merited a starting assignment for their teams this postseason. the dodgers are paying jason schmidt $12 m, brad penny $8.5 m, and greg maddux a prorated portion of $10 m to enjoy their victories from the sidelines. the white sox are paying jose contreras $10 m to enjoy the playoffs from the comforts of his sofa. the cubs chose their 4 starters over jason marquis and his $6.375 m salary. (he’ll make almost $10 m next year, btw.) jon garland and adam eaton were paid nearly $20 m this season to pitch themselves off their teams’ respective playoff rosters. all told, that’s almost $60 m in veteran pitchers that, either b/c of injury or ineffectiveness, aren’t going to be trusted w/ starting assignments this postseason. all of them except marquis were replaced by at least 1 young kid earning less than 1/20th their salary. harden, if you can believe this, earns about 70% of jason marquis’ salary.

so what does this have to do w/ the cards? next year’s rotation, for now, includes 2 "kids" (wainwright and wellemeyer) and 2 vets (pineiro and lohse). i know lohse was really good this season, but if you look at k rates, and k/bb, he looks more like people like garland, suppan, marquis, blanton, bush, and moyer than people like billingsley, danks, shields, santana, hamels or gallardo. he does also look like kuroda, buehrle, and saunders but pitchers who win in the postseason tend to be more like wainwright than lohse.

contrary to tony’s declarations, it wasn’t our lineup but our pitching staff with the biggest holes this year. if we’re going to build great teams over the long-term, we’re going to need more good, young pitchers and less higher priced vets signed through free agency. i’m not here today to rehash the lohse signing, but it’s just a patch – a band-aid for what ails us now. he’s got a long-term contract but he’s not a long-term solution.

az stated on Friday that he thought we ought to offer looper arbitration this offseason. strangely, i agree with him. the supplemental pick we receive has value that can, hopefully, be used on a pitcher w/ big upside or, if he accepts, he provides 1 more band-aid for a team that needs another. fortunately, his would only be a 1 year contract. it’s what we should have done w/ lohse. if neither accepted, we could always come back and resign lohse then. of course, we would have run the risk that he would have signed w/ another team but, since young pitchers are the foundations of great teams (even boston’s vets are just 28 years old), how risky is that really?

whether or not looper accepts arbitration, we need to attempt to trade for a "kid" to add to our rotation this offseason. gottfather suggests the rays’ andy sonnastine here -- a fine choice as is the giants’ jonathan sanchez (3.85 FIP, 8.94 K/9) but whoever it is, it should be a much higher priority than signing mediocre pitchers to long-term contracts. all the playoff teams recognize this.

i’ll be back later w/ a playoff games thread. could we be looking at 2 more sweeps?