Viva El Birdos

The Second Annual "Matt Holliday is Awesome" Post

2012-02-12T11:00:22Z

There are plenty of reasons to be excited for the 2012 season. The Cardinals' Front Office led by John Mozeliak has assembled an interesting set of players despite the void left by Albert Pujols. Veterans Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran will become key focal points in a revamped offense along with World Series MVP David Freese and the Cardinals will look to work Allen Craig's bat into the lineup upon his return from rehabbing knee surgery. The rotation is bolstered by a newly ligamented Adam Wainwright a deep veteran core of Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook and the sole lefty Jaime Garcia.

I visited this topic early last year but it seems worthwhile to come back to it again. There is really one player who the Cardinals will depend on to fill the significant void left by the departure of #5. That would be #7, Matt Holliday. Despite appearing in approximately 75% of last year's games, Matt Holliday still managed to put up a 5.0 fWAR year. That was due in large part to what was, arguably, his best offensive season of his career factoring in league and park effects. Matt Holliday was simply terrific.

The Cardinals are surely thankful that he was terrific because they've signed him for another 5 years and $85M dollars. Through the first two seasons, Holliday has outperformed his contract by roughly $15M dollars. He's kept the Cardinals in the black on the contract with some exceptional offense, durability and average defense. His contract remains the largest one provided by the Cardinals to date and even after playing through two seasons of it, Matt Holliday is the largest financial commitment on the books for the team.

During the offseason in 2009, Matt Holliday was not the only outfielder that some considered to be a premier free agent. Jason Bay would sign a 4 year, $64M deal with the New York Mets who almost certainly regret that decision. In 2008, Bay had been traded from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Boston Red Sox for four players: Craig Hansen, Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris. In typical Pirate fashion*, none of those four players amounted to anything of real value. Bay would finish the 2008 season with Boston and proceed to have a monstrous 2009 where he hit .267/.384/.537. It was a season that was roughly equivalent to the work Matt Holliday was doing in Oakland and St. Louis. After that, things would diverge.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	fWAR
Matt Holliday	.305	.389	.529	.395	11.7
Jason Bay	.251	.337	.386	.325	2.2

The Mets have spent $32M to get 2.2 WAR in the last two years. The Cardinals spent an extra $2M to get an additional 9.5 WAR from their corresponding Jason Bay player.

This is, in large part, as much a testimony of how good Matt Holliday is as it would be an example of just how terribly Jason Bay has performed for the Mets. Matt Holliday is likely to be the new anchor of the Cardinals lineup and the only player to appear regularly in the number three spot on a lineup card since Albert Pujols made his name there in 2001.

Matt Holliday's role on the Cardinals will be different than what it was previously. One would hope that his recent invite to a few Cardinals' minor league players to spend some time practicing with he and David Freese in St. Louis is a tacit acknowledgement that Holliday is now the big man on campus. The offense will have to be more balanced but it will be Holliday-centric much as it was Pujols-centric. At 32, Matt Holliday is entering what modern analysis would lead us to believe is his decline phase. Eventually, the Cardinals will look elsewhere to find the focal point of their offense. For the next 2-3 years, they are depending on Matt Holliday to be that focus. If 2011 was any indication, a healthy Holliday is prepared to shoulder the load.

*Typical pirate fashion actually involves a scimitar, bandana, large linen pants hemmed tight at the ankle, a deep V blouse and 1-2 missing teeth.

one week till pitchers and catchers report

2012-02-11T09:33:26Z

the trucks have hit the road. ninety gazillion baseballs are bound for jupiter (not that jupiter).

meanwhile, the club keeps making small moves to improve depth, while it quietly plays a last-hand-on-the-car waiting game with roy oswalt. earlier, the club signed a minor league contract with alex cora, hopefully to be the eleventh-string guy called up rather than making kyle lohse play second base on his off-days.

maybe a more interesting signing was yesterday's minor league signing of scott linebrink. hopefully, he won't cut in line ahead of the more deserving young relievers. but, as relief depth that can be stowed in the minors at little to no cost, he seems like an excellent value. he's older (35), and he had a down year last year. he may be in a decline phase. on the other hand, he's been a pretty decent reliever in the past. bgh showed us yesterday how well he compared to kyle mcclellan in 2011. if anything, calling linebrink a mcclellan clone is selling him short. zips thinks linebrink will turn out more like mitch boggs - both have a projection for a 99 era+. mcclellan on the other hand projects to have only an 88 era+. a reliever who projects to be a hair below average is a good thing to get on a minor league deal, however you slice it.

the other most recent signing was a little younger and a little further from the majors. the cardinals signed andres serrano, a 17-year-old hurler from the dominican. for $750,000, getting a young pitcher with a fastball reportedly sitting in the low-90's, reaching up to 95 mph, with a nice curveball to complement his fastball. don't expect him to show up in jupiter next saturday.

but the gang has already started assembling. yadier molina and tony cruz have been catching pitches from adam wainwright, who apparently is in . . . wait for it . . . the best shape of his life. tyler greene and - bizarrely - rick ankiel have been standing in to take pitches against waino. it's great to see him obviously raring to go. i'm not sure that he would have told us that he felt terrible, but ordinary optimism wouldn't require the kind of hyperbolic commentary we've heard from him so far, as well as from the catchers and hitters sitting in with him.

not in the best shape of his life is allen craig, who isn't running and isn't taking swings. he is still rehabbing the muscles in his leg, following knee surgery a few weeks after the world series. it's hard to know how much time he'll need to get back into playing shape once his rehab is done.

stories to watch for:

catchers: bryan anderson and tony cruz face off to find out who gets a big league backup role. but monitoring the roles and commentary from coaches and pitchers is essential to seeing who the club is going to trust in the future. even for catchers who remain far from the majors - like cody stanley and robert stock are trying to impress.

catcher remains a role where subjective impressions are very important. spring training is one of the only chances young catchers get to impress the major league coaching staff. and matheny will be inclined to take catcher development pretty seriously.

left-handed relief: unless rj swindle really impresses, or someone gets injured, the major league staff is pretty much set.but the day is coming when the cardinals will rely on internal lefty depth. sam freeman is on the 40 man already. john gast makes his second non-roster invite appearance, after wowing the club with his magical pickoff move. other possible left-handed relievers include nick greenwood (who's been unimpressive since being got as the other part of the ryan ludwick trade) and kevin siegrist. a prospect who looks like a real future lefty-specialist could move quickly.

starting pitching: there's a good chance lance lynn could be a better choice as a starter than jake westbrook, or even kyle lohse. if roy oswalt doesn't sign, does the club throw a starting pitching competition open? can shelby miller make himself irresistable to the club and move his september promotion forward to april? probably not, but it's definitely worth watching our almost major league ready top pitching prospect. it will also be interesting to see which, among the other options, the court lets take the most starts. do they keep trying mcclellan as a starter? do they take long looks at potential spot starters cleto or dickson?

right-handed relief: less interesting that starters, this category is basically defined as pitchers not good enough (or ready enough) to start. still, watch some guys to begin spring training as relievers. for some, this may represent a role shift. adam ottavino probably pitches most of this season in the bullpen at memphis. joe kelly and jordan swagerty are to other prospects with real question marks on whether they can start. beginning spring training in the bullpen is not the end of the world, but it might lend some credence to the notion that the club views them as relievers long-term.

St. Louis Cardinals Sign Kyle McClellan Clone Scott Linebrink to Minor-League Deal

2012-02-10T23:58:19Z

The St. Louis Cardinals signed free agent right-handed relief pitcher Scott Linebrink to a minor-league contract today that also comes with an invitation to Spring Training. Upon learning of the signing, I brought up Linebrink's Fangraphs page to se what type of pitcher the Cardinals were inviting to big-league camp in Jupiter. What immediately jumped out to me about Linebrink is just how similar his numbers are to those of Kyle McClellan.

This became apparent to me when looking at Linebrink's numbers for the 2011 season. I immediate thought of McClellan as a comparable pitcher and was nonetheless a bit surprised by just how comparable to two righties are. The following graph contains Linebrink's -0.2-fWAR 2011 with McClellan's career numbers as a relief pitcher.

Stats	K-Mac as RP	Linebrink ‘11
K/9	6.82	6.96
BB/9	3.39	3.48
BABIP	.270	.317
LOB%	79.5%	81.8%
ERA	3.36	3.64
FIP	4.29	4.30
xFIP	4.11	4.18

The next graph shows McClellan's career numbers as a reliever and Linebrink's career numbers as a reliever.

Stats	K-Mac	Linebrink
K/9	6.82	7.98
BB/9	3.39	3.00
BABIP	.270	.291
LOB%	79.5%	78.2%
ERA	3.36	3.45
FIP	4.29	4.02
xFIP	4.11	4.02

With players like Linebrink available on minor-league deals, it makes one wonder why John Mozeliak inked McClellan to a big-league contract worth $2.5 million.

Official Ultimate Cardinals Record Book FAQ and Plug

2012-02-10T13:02:18Z

Friends and readers: As you might have noticed on the sidebar, a book I wrote is coming out on March 1. Today: I plug it. (Note: A non-plug post is scheduled to pop up in this space around one.) What follows is some questions I have arbitrarily decided you've frequently asked about The Ultimate Cardinals Record Book, which sits at this writing as among the most 125,000 talked-about books in the entire world.

1. Where can I buy The Ultimate Cardinals Record Book?

You could click on this Amazon link, if you're especially eager. After it comes out you could look in a bookstore, if you're in range of a bookstore with a local sports section. Triumph, the publisher, is also responsible for Derrick Goold's 100 Things Cardinal Fans Should Know and Do before They Die, so if you've seen that somewhere, look to its right or left.

2. Is it really the ultimate record book about the Cardinals?

It's actually the Cardinals volume of the Ultimate Record Book series. It's kind of a Nippon Ham-Fighters/Nippon-Ham Fighters situation—though if, after reading it, you find it the best record book you've ever read about the Cardinals you're welcome to consider the possibility.

3. What's inside?

Chapters about big names in Cardinals history—Stan Musial, Albert Pujols, Bob Gibson, Bob Caruthers (shut up) and the like—a ton of shorter sidebars and boxes about not-quite-as-big-names, events, and happenings in Cardinals history, and lots of all-time team leaderboards. It's the kind of book designed to be read at random intervals, in random order; more specifically, it's set up a lot like the Yankees version, only I do not once say "Joe DiMaggio."

4. Are there any one-act plays?

Unfortunately this is not Viva El Birdos: The Book, which I'd love to someday write but will probably not be paid to do. It's written for a more general audience than VEB, so I apologize if I use wins and RBI too much and repeat a bunch of things you know already. I sneaked OPS in, is what I'm saying, but not wOBA.

(But if you know a publisher who'd like to take a huge loss on a book themed after an insidery blog with stagnant traffic numbers, put them in touch with my people. [Warning: I'll feel way more comfortable relentlessly plugging that book on this website.])

5. How would you rank all the Wings albums, from best to worst?

Band on the Run
Back to the Egg
Red Rose Speedway
Venus and Mars
At The Speed of Sound
London Town
Wild Life

Yadier Molina's free agency and the St. Louis Cardinals' extension jitters

2012-02-09T13:01:09Z

The Cardinals are in a weird place with Yadier Molina. In order of ascending weirdness:

1. Yadier Molina is a catcher. Catchers are difficult to value because they accumulate fewer wins above replacement than everybody else and they're scarier to lock in on long-term at the ages when most stars and near-stars become free agents. Since 2000 there's been all of 11 instances of five bWAR seasons from catchers, and four at six—Joe Mauer twice, Jorge Posada once (at 31), and Javy Lopez in that random season where he slugged .687.

Albert Pujols notched five WAR 11 times in that span. Shortstops did it 36 times, corner outfielders 60 times, and so on. A lot of this is likely related to our limited understanding of catcher defense, but unless the Cardinals know something we don't or are confident in a specific estimate of Molina's defensive abilities catchers remain more difficult to evaluate, let alone to sign long-term.

On the Cot's list of enormous contracts, there's Joe Mauer at sixth—$184 million over eight years—and Mike Piazza's highest-paid-player-in-baseball contract at the turn of the millennium. Before Mauer the biggest active catcher's contract was Jorge Posada's four year, $52 million deal. Catchers just rarely get long-term deals; the closest comparison I can come up with is Jason Varitek, who got a four year, $40 million deal to be the team captain of the Red Sox in 2005. Varitek was three years older than Molina will be, and had two Jason Varitek seasons and two below-average ones.

2. They didn't sign Albert Pujols. That leaves Yadier Molina atop the list of popular Lifelong Cardinals with just one year left on his contract. Right now the Cardinals basically look like last year's squad with a bunch of robotic old-player enhancements bolted to their spindlier limbs; 2013 will be our first glimpse at how or whether the Cardinals go in a different direction as they attempt to rebuild on the fly.

Whatever signal John Mozeliak intends to send, he'll have a hard time pushing it out there over the din of the Molina negotiations.

3. Yadier Molina is coming off a Brian McCann season. Typically I'd agree with Bernie Miklasz, who suggested yesterday that Molina's price will only go up over the course of the next season, but I don't see how Yadier Molina could be any more valuable than he is right now—and the gap between his current valuation and his "true" valuation might be wide enough to offset the bump he'll get in free agency.

Right now Molina couldn't look much better than he does: He's coming off an OPS+ of 126 and a career-high 14 home runs, he's played at least 130 games three years in a row, and he's just 29 years old. He's widely regarded as the best defensive catcher in baseball, and as difficult as that is to quantify he also just had the 31st-best offensive season of any catcher since 2000. Which probably isn't going into his Scott Boras-style notebook, but is impressive nevertheless.

4. The Cardinals don't have anything else going on at catcher. Really, this might be what forces the Cardinals' hand, no matter what the Cardinals of the next five years are supposed to look like. azruavatar did a great post about this a few weeks ago at Future Redbirds—Bryan Anderson and Tony Cruz are backup options, Robert Stock might be a pitcher by the end of 2012, Audry Perez has walked 31 times in 216 games, and Cody Stanley was a league-average hitter as a 22-year-old in the Midwest League. And that's the catching situation in St. Louis.

Anderson and Cruz might reasonably spend time in a starting role if Molina were lost for a month, or if the Cardinals had a catching prospect in the wings, but right now the only thing keeping the Cardinals from spinning the Rod Barajas wheel of one-year contracts is Yadier Molina.

The Astros will try Brett Wallace at third base, which makes sense to me inasmuch as he's had as much trouble hitting like a first baseman as he had fielding like a third baseman. A team like the Astros can and should try as much stuff like this as they can, even though I'm not sure Carlos Lee should be blocking anybody on a team that's going to lose 100 games.

Wayward Cardinals prospect positional-return power rankings: 3. Brett Wallace, third base; 2. Daric Barton, catcher; 1. Rick Ankiel, pitcher.

The Roy Oswalt thing continues to get more ridiculous. At last glance, the Phillies were apparently considering—this will sound familiar—moving a pitcher they regretted signing in exchange for room to sign Oswalt to a one-year deal. You're right: This is the worst thing ever.

2012 Draft Preview Drei: Middling Results

2012-02-08T16:54:25Z

I was in the supermarket just the other evening when I spied something a bit unusual in the frozen foods section. It was a new premium ice cream, brand name Magnum. Now, I stopped when I spotted this ice cream, largely because of the name and the packaging. See, Magnum brand ice cream is sold in a very dark brown, almost black carton, with gold writing. What's odd, at least to me, is both the name and colour scheme of Magnum brand ice cream are essentially the same as Magnum brand condoms. (They're the large-sized condom line of Trojan.)

Well, this seemed like a terrible idea to me. When I'm shopping for ice cream, I really don't want to suddenly be reminded of oversized male genitalia. Just not my thing, you know? So how, I asked myself, did no one at this company say at any point in the process of bringing this product to market, "Hey, you know, maybe we shouldn't give our product the same name and look as plus-sized condoms," thus avoiding having people staring at their product in the frozen case, trying to decide if what they're seeing is a joke or not.

Just now, in the process of writing this intro, I became curious and checked out the company's website. Nice site, two front page panels, both containing the word Pleasure. "For Pleasure Seekers," proclaims one. The other advertises the "Magnum Pleasure Hunt," some sort of ice cream- or dick-themed scavenger hunt, I would imagine. The tagline for the Magnum Pleasure Hunt is, and I quote: "You're in control as you run and jump across the internet in search of pleasures. Let the hunt begin!" I don't even know where to begin explaining how many things are wrong with that sentence.

I'm still not sure if this is a joke or not. If it is, well done Magnum brand ice cream. You have elevated double entendre to an art form. If it isn't , then this has got to go down (tee-hee, go down), as an incredible failure of a company's entire marketing department to do even the most perfunctory of research.

Scouting reports after the jump.

Today we're looking at a trio of middle infielders. Last year's first round pick, Kolten Wong, plus the continued steady, if unspectacular, play of Ryan Jackson have combined to give the Cards more of a middle infield presence on their prospect lists than they have had in quite some time. However, it's still one of the thinner areas in the farm system, and give then extra picks the Cardinals have this June I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them spend at least one of their high picks on a premium position talent.

Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State University

6'1", 185 lbs

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

Player Page

So, what's so great about this guy?

Well, I'll tell you what's so great about Deven Marrero, and I'll do it in just one sentence. His walkup music is "Smells Like Teen Spirit." Or, at least, it appears to be so going by the video I'll have below this. That's enough for me right there to draft the guy. No idea if he can play or not, but the taste in music is plenty good for my club.

Actually, there's plenty of on-field stuff to recommend Marrero as well. He is almost universally considered to be the best defensive shortstop in this year's draft class, having won the Defensive Player of the Year award in the Pac-10 last season. He has plus range, good hands, and a rifle of an arm that enables him to make throws from anywhere he can reach. I've seen a fair number of Arizona State games (thanks ESPN U!), and he never fails to impress at least once per contest. The glove is major league-ready right now, and he has the talent to be one of the best defenders in all of baseball at his position.

The offense is less impressive, but still quite good for a shortstop. He's shown the ability to make hard contact consistently, largely thanks to extraordinary hand-eye coordination. His power is just average, but more than good enough for a premium defensive position.

Marrero is an athletic specimen, with a solid, muscular frame that's already filled out as much as it's likely to. He has good speed, particularly going first to third, but his stolen base totals are nothing special. I haven't honestly seen him run the bases enough to formulate a firm opinion, but I can only assume his instincts on the basepaths lag behind his physical speed.

Marrero is never going to be a special hitter, but he had enough success playing in the Cape Cod League last summer to suggest he shouldn't be completely helpless with wood. All the same, I'm not overly fond of his swing. There's something about the way he starts his swing I think could be better. His first move with the bat is to lift it, whereas I would prefer to see his first move going back into the load. It's a fairly small thing, though, and the sort of issue that could easily be remedied if it is, in fact, a problem going forward. He does have an intelligent, mature approach at the plate which should serve him well in pro ball.

The Cardinals do have Ryan Jackson in the minors playing shortstop, and there's a solid chance he'll make it to the big leagues one day. Still, Marrero is the sort of talent you don't pass on because you think you have Ryan Jackson coming in a couple of years. The only real issue with Marrero is his draft position. Depending on what he does this spring, he could very well be long gone by the time the Cardinals go on the clock. He's ranked in the top five of most lists of the top college prospects, and deservedly so. Players capable of handling shortstop defensively are one of the most difficult commodities to secure in all of baseball, and Marrero is definitely capable.

If Marrero is still on the board somehow when the Cardinals' turn to pick comes up, I think he would almost be a no-brainer. Unfortunately, that's not the most likely scenario in the world. Still, a draftnik can dream, can't he?

Nolan Fontana, SS, University of Florida

5'11", 190 lbs

Bats: Left

Throws: Right

Player Page

So, what's so great about this guy?

Fontana is a lot like Deven Marrero Lite. He has a similar build, though a bit shorter, with similar defensive skills, a major college program pedigree, and an offensive profile that just doesn't quite measure up.

If you prefer not to compare him to another draftee, you can think of him as a souped-up version of Daniel Descalso. Lefty hitter, not a ton of power, outstanding contact skills, that sort of thing. Fontana does have better plate discipline than Dirty Dan, at least at this point in his career, but that could always change as he faces more advanced pitching.

The good thing about Fontana is this: he's not changing positions. He's firmly entrenched all the way to the left on the defensive spectrum, and he's staying there. His range might be a touch better even than Marrero's, and his hands are outstanding. He has a strong arm, though I think Marrero might have a slight edge there, and doesn't make the silly mental mistakes you see all too often in amateur players. If you draft Nolan Fontana, there's really no question you're drafting a shortstop.

Now that's not to say, of course, you're drafting a starting shortstop with Fontana. Or even a major league shortstop, for that matter. I have some real questions about his ability to hit enough in the pros, and I'm not the only one who feels that way. Fontana plays in a relatively neutral park, slightly inclined toward hitters, so there isn't any kind of Kolten Wong-esque park factor math which could make his numbers look appreciably different.

Here's the bottom line with Fontana: he'll play the toughest position on the field, and he'll play it very, very well. The only problem is whether or not his bat will ever be good enough to push him up to a level he can let his glove contribute. The Cards' first pick is too high for Fontana, but with their plethora of early picks I could see him as a very nice consolation prize for not landing the number one college shortstop in Marrero. His ceiling is a huge question mark, though.

Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rican Baseball Academy

6'3", 190 lbs

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

So, what's so great about this guy?

Carlos Correa is this year's Manny Machado, the big, athletic freak in the middle infield who invites Alex Rodriguez comparisons with his tools. Of the three players here, Correa has the highest ceiling, with the potential to be a true superstar.

It starts with power potential at the plate for Correa. He's a long, lean specimen with long levers and plenty of functional strength already. His power is mostly of the batting practice variety for now, but there's plenty of reason to believe it will translate down the road with better coaching and time to develop. His swing is a little long and a little stiff to my eye, but there's plenty of time to work on that. He can hit the ball a long, long way when he makes contact, and that's enough to dream on for now.

On the defensive side, Correa brings absolutely unreal arm strength to the party right out of the gate. He's been clocked as high as 97 mph in infield drills, and he can make throws the likes of which you don't often see this side of Troy Tulowitzki. His range is a plus as well, but the reviews on his hands are somewhat mixed. He's a much less consistent fielder than either Marrero or Fontana, which is largely to be expected given the age discrepancy.

The biggest question mark attached to Correa is going to be his size. At 6'3" or 6'4", depending on who you believe, he's much bigger than 95% of the shortstops in professional baseball, and the few of similar height (including someone like, say, Brendan Ryan, at 6'3"), are generally cut from much thinner, wirier cloth. Depending on how he grows and fills out, it's entirely possible Correa will simply outgrow the position. He likely has the bat to slide over to third base -- or, at least, he has the potential in his bat to do so -- but the dropoff in value between a shortstop and third baseman is not to be taken lightly.

Correa is very much a swinging for the fences type of pick, and is rated highly enough there's no telling if he'll still be around when the Cards' pick comes up. Still, high school players are much harder to project than their collegiate brethren, and prone to falling come draft day. The ceiling with Correa is absolutely monstrous, and some team is going to be sorely tempted to buy a lottery ticket with the chance at that ceiling.

'Nother batch in the books, everybody. And only ten days left 'til pitchers and catchers report. It's so close I can almost taste it.

The Baron's Playlist for the 8th of February, 2012 (click for 8tracks or below for embedded player)

The Baron's Playlist for the 8th of February, 2012 from aeschafer on 8tracks.

"Comeback Kid" - Sleigh Bells

"Infinity Guitars" - Sleigh Bells

"Romeo and the Lonely Girl" - Thin Lizzy (never before has a song with such a stupid chorus still managed to be so awesome)

"Running Back" - Thin Lizzy

"Half as Much" - Patsy Cline

"Why Can't He Be You" - Patsy Cline

"Wailing (Making Out)" - Howler (thanks to Rob Levy for his help in identifying this song for me)

"America" - Howler

Jeremy Guthrie, Jake Westbrook, and Kyle McClellan

2012-02-07T13:00:44Z

Jeremy Guthrie—traded by the Orioles to the Rockies on Monday for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom—is better than Kyle McClellan or Jake Westbrook, but if the Cardinals are really trying to deal either of them for salary-relief purposes, the move makes me wonder why they appear to be having so much trouble. Bill James projections:

	IP	FIP	Rates	Due
Jeremy Guthrie	200.0	4.56	5.5/2.6/1.2	$8.2
Jake Westbrook	183.0	4.35	5.2/3.4/0.8	$9.5
Kyle McClellan	114.0	4.26	6.1/2.8/1.0	$2.5
Jason Hammel	149.0	4.17	6.5/3.1/0.9	$8.2

The Guthrie trade is salary-neutral, but the Orioles are getting two useful pitchers in the deal, one of whom has an extra year under team control, out of the deal; if the Cardinals are looking to trade McClellan for the 2012 equivalent of Luis Perdomo and most of their money back I'm not sure what the trouble is. (Westbrook has a no-trade clause, although the possibility of getting bumped into the Kyle McClellan role seems like sufficient cause to exercise it.)

(As for the move itself, I like it for the Orioles—I think the average mediocre team has more to gain from patching two potential sub-replacement-level holes on its roster than it does filling one with Jeremy Guthrie.)

Elsewhere: The Cubs trade their defensively suspect infielder for the younger model.

I'll say this for the Cubs' new braintrust: They will leave no opportunity for incremental improvement untaken, no matter how incremental. Starting at the beginning:

1. The Oakland Athletics, who have 40 supremely useful baseball players already on their roster, designated former top prospect Adrian Cardenas for assignment.

Quite simply, they could not resist the opportunity to pay Jonny Gomes, who hit .209/.325/.389 last year and .266/.327/.431 the year before that and is one of the worst defensive players in baseball.

Cardenas is one of the easiest players to overvalue in baseball—all you have to do is call him a 23-year-old second baseman who hit .314/.374/.418 last year. In reality, he's just barely a middle infielder and his .791 OPS was somehow below the PCL average.

Take that into account, though, and he's still a legitimate left fielder who played some second base last season (while batting left-handed!) and could do a good Skip Schumaker impression as a 24-year-old making the league minimum.

2. The Cubs grabbed Cardenas

Sounds good! Free 24-year-old who could play a significant bench role now and still has a prospect's pedigree!

3. The Cubs DFA Blake DeWitt

DeWitt was once one of the easiest players to overvalue in baseball—all you had to do was call him a 22-year-old second baseman who hit .264/.344/.383 in 2008 in the majors. In reality, he's just barely a middle infielder and his .728 OPS was probably higher than the Dodgers had a right to expect, given his performance in the minors the year before.

Take that into account, though, and he was still basically Adrian Cardenas.

The FIP & the Pendulum: Jaime Garcia

2012-02-06T12:00:39Z

Jaime Garcia burst onto the scene in 2010 with an excellent rookie season that saw him finish third in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. Garcia posted a 2.77 ERA (which was good for a 69 ERA-) with two-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio. In his first season post-Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals wisely shut the southpaw down once the club had fallen out of contention during the home stretch of September. This decision limited Garcia to 163.1 IP for the season. Impressively, Garcia accrued 3.1 fWAR over those innings. Despite a BABIP that was very close to the MLB average for a starting pitcher in 2010, there was good reason to believe that his ERA would rise in 2011.

Below is a table showing stats for MLB starters as a whole in 2010, Jaime Garcia in 2010, and the difference between Garcia's numbers and the MLB average for starters. The stats shown are Earned Run Average (ERA), Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), the difference between ERA and FIP (ERA-FIP), Expected Fielding Independent PItching (xFIP), the difference between ERA and xFIP (ERA-xFIP), Home Run per Fly Ball Rate (HR/FB), percentage of runners left on base (LOB%), and Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP).

2010	ERA	FIP	ERA-FIP	xFIP	ERA-xFIP	HR/FB	LOB%	BABIP
MLB	4.15	4.13	+0.02	4.10	+0.05	9.60%	71.5%	.293
GARCIA	2.70	3.41	-0.71	3.62	-0.92	7.30%	75.0%	.292
DIFF.	-1.45	-0.72	-0.73	-0.48	-0.97	-2.30%	+4.5%	-.001

Even though the theory behind DIPS--that a pitcher cannot control batted balls--has been eroded somewhat by the work of Mike Fast and others, FIP and xFIP still have a higher correlation to the next season's ERA for a pitcher than ERA. When one compares Garcia's 2010 ERA to his fielding independent pitching statistics, the precariousness of his ERA becomes clear. His ERA-FIP difference of -0.73 was the tenth largest ERA-FIP gap where a starter's ERA was lower than his FIP. Due to the small amount of innings Garcia has pitched in his career, his HR/FB rate being relatively low compared to the league average was another red flag. xFIP calculates a pitcher's FIP with a league-average home run rate and Garcia's 3.62; or, 0.92 points higher than his ERA.

Below is a table showing stats for MLB starters as a whole in 2011, Garcia in 2011, and the difference between Garcia's numbers and the MLB average for starters. It consists of the same stats as the table shown above for 2010.

2011	ERA	FIP	ERA-FIP	xFIP	ERA-xFIP	HR/FB	LOB%	BABIP
MLB	4.06	4.00	+0.06	3.96	+0.10	10.0%	71.6%	.293
GARCIA	3.56	3.23	+0.33	3.31	+0.25	8.9%	66.8%	.318
DIFF.	-0.50	-0.77	+0.27	-0.65	+0.15	-1.1%	-4.8%	+.015

While Garcia may not have been as unlucky in 2011 as he was lucky in 2010, he certainly did experience a swinging of the luck pendulum from his rookie season. His ERA-FIP differential is the twenty-third unluckiest amongst big-league starters in 2011. Garcia's ERA-FIP gap is not the sole stat that reveals his 2011 to have been a bit unlucky. Despite having a LD% 0.2 percentage points above the league average, Garcia's BABIP against of .318 was 15 points higher than the league average BABIP against for starters. His 66.8 LOB% was also nearly five percentage points lower than league average. There is reason to believe Garcia's ERA will fall in 2012 due to better infield defense and an evening out of his luck on batted balls and with runners on base. If it does, he will be an elite starting pitcher.

After a rookie season ERA- of 69, Garcia's ERA of 3.56 in 2011 equaled an ERA - of only 96, which is just a hair better than the MLB average. While his ERA rose considerably, his FIP was still exceptional as compared to his peers. In 2010, Garcia posted a FIP- of 88; in 2011, Garcia's FIP- was 86. This ranked him nineteenth in MLB behind teammates Chris Carpenter, who ranked seventeenth with a FIP- of 82.

In fact, Garcia's 2011 line is quite similar to that of Carpenter. Carpenter posted a K/9 of 7.24 to 7.21 for Garcia. Carpenter's 2.09 BB/9 was slightly lower than Garcia's 2.31 BB/9 (which the lefty lowered from 3.59 in 2010). Garcia's 53.6 GB% was seven points higher than Carpenter's 46.6% GB rate. While Garcia's 3.23 FIP was a bit higher than Carpenter's 3.06 FIP. The difference in their numbers is twofold: home run suppression and innings pitched. Carpenter's skill for suppressing homers accounts for him having a lower FIP than Garcia; both pitchers posted a 3.23 xFIP. Carpenter's 234.1 IP to Garcia's 194.2 IP make up the remaining difference between Carpenter's 5.0 and Garcia's 3.6 fWAR.

Garcia benefited from good luck in 2010 that caused expectations for his development in 2011 to be unfairly high. In his second big-league season, the pendulum of luck swung the opposite way and cost Garcia in the ERA column. Given Garcia's lowered FIP last season, there is good reason for Cardinals fans to be optimistic about the young southpaw's third season.