Viva El Birdos

Friday Notes

2010-03-19T10:00:33Z

4 days ago: St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Jim Rapoport dives for a ball hit by New York Mets Fernando Martinez for a double during the eighth inning of the spring training baseball game in Port St. Lucie, Fla. Monday, March 15, 2010. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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Cue the sad Sarah McLachlan song—no, the other one—Ben Jukich is returning to the Reds. I, for one, will remember all the good times we had together. There was the time the Cardinals selected him in the Rule 5 draft, and the time, singular, he pitched this Spring. And all the times in between where I wondered where the Cardinals had planned on putting him.

His departure is being framed as though the Cardinals just couldn't find the right deal to keep him in St. Louis, but it's not as though they're lacking for parts; the aging, possibly adequate C- guy is the official prospect type of the Cardinals farm system. What this means is that Jukich had fallen behind the homegrown suspects on the Cardinals' internal list—P.J. Walters, Francisco Samuel, et al.

With two lefties on the roster and Jaime Garcia in camp I'm not entirely sure what the Cardinals expected to happen, but you can't end up with Brian Barton every year. In the meantime I think it's best we avoid dwelling on the negative, and just remember—keep with us, always—the great times we had together. We'll never get them back, sure—but by god we'll never lose them, either.

Things have looked brighter for the other transplanted left-hander, too; as long-time kremlinologist Derrick Goold notes, Jaime Garcia has officially horned in on the two-man race—

Hours before Rich Hill lost command of his start against Atlanta, the Cardinals announced that Garcia, peerless as a reliever this spring, would start Monday against Houston. During the early weeks of spring training, Cardinals coaches portrayed the contest for the open spot in the rotation as a duel pitting Hill against in-house candidate Kyle McClellan. Garcia, a candidate from Class AAA championed by some in the organization, has pitched too well to be ignored.

Garcia is great, but I'm sympathetic to the idea that penciling him into a rotation spot after 40 rehab innings seems sudden. He's pitched 155 innings before, but it was when he was 19, which is kind of a loaded endorsement to make—like claiming Kerry Wood is a horse because Dusty Baker once had him throw medicine balls at Michael Barrett until he couldn't feel his arm anymore.

But the Joba Rules, for all their overhyped inanity and mixed signals, aren't the only way to control a Young Pitcher's innings and his "readiness", as nebulous a concept as that is. La Russa and Duncan have not done well at this, historically, something that's always followed them around anecdotally and was attached to them analytically in Chris Jaffe's recent study of managers. But he'll be a young pitcher, and La Russa and Duncan their less-than-optimal young pitcher selves, whether he comes up in 2010 or 2011; if he's the best pitcher available, and he's kept around the 162 innings required for the ERA title, there are worse ways to start a career.

Is there a purer expression of the #hpgf hash tag than the sequence of events described in this blog entry? A scrap-heap veteran is forced out of the game, and into the breach flies Fernando Salas, a rookie who's increased his chances of making the Opening Day roster like no other player in camp. Aided by a diving Colby Rasmus he impresses again; over the next two innings Rasmus and Allen Craig, hitter-without-a-position, blocked by the powers-that-be, club extra-base hits. Which is to say: you don't need five-star prospects to be a hyperventilating prospect-geek fraternity.

As for Salas himself, the red baron is the early pick for official Nostradamus of Spring Training 2010, which means that the History Channel should be by the RFT offices any day now to film a breathless documentary about him. Salas has good-enough stuff and great results, and the Cardinals are in no position to be picky. Should Kyle McClellan be outrun for the last spot in the rotation by Jaime Garcia things get murkier, but I wouldn't be particularly concerned about who ended up in this bullpen if I didn't think someone was going to be joining it circa the middle of May.

Sign Ben Shee—Rich Har—John Smo—

2010-03-18T10:00:52Z

More photos » Richard Drew - AP

3 days ago: St. Louis Cardinals designated hitter Allen Craig, right, starts his slide to score as Washington Nationals catcher Ivan Rodriguez fields the throw during the first inning of the spring training baseball game in Jupiter, Fla. on Tuesday, March 16, 2010. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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Down goes another blog favorite, this time to plausible-deniability retirement and a career in broadcasting:

"Joining Turner Sports' Major League Baseball coverage is a great opportunity for me to stay immersed in the game that I love and I'm really looking forward to this experience. Having worked with TBS and Peachtree TV before, I am thrilled about the start of the 2010 season," said Smoltz.

But is he thrilled about the middle of the 2010 season, and the 2010 playoffs? His reluctance to actually announce his retirement—he handicapped his odds at 50:1 in another article—means that he's as much a mid-season option for the Cardinals (and various other worried teams) as he ever was, but while he talks up hunting and fishing and seeing his kids more often the blog-talk about him necessarily quiets down.

That this happened the day after Jaime Garcia struck out seven in three innings and pushed himself back into the fifth starter discussion—or at least, as the field seemed to narrow to two, forced La Russa and Duncan to continue said discussion—makes it a neat turning point. The Cardinals have gone deep into March (past 3/14, when Kyle Lohse was signed two years ago) without bringing in another external option; they seem satisfied with both the quality and depth of their fifth starter pool. If it's first a vote of confidence for Kyle McClellan, the presumptive front-runner, it's also a vote in favor of Jaime Garcia pitching some share of contingency innings in 2010.

With Smoltz gone, Sheets hammered, Harden the victim of some negative 140-character publicity, the free agent landscape looks generally post-apocalyptic. If you're John Mozeliak—more specifically, if I'm John Mozeliak—the remaining options look a little like this:

1. Call Pedro Martinez's agent, leave some voicemails. I can't answer any of the following questions: does Pedro have anything left? Has he retired? Is he still crazy? To be honest, I don't think the means to answer those questions are available for anyone but Pedro Martinez at this moment. He pitched pretty well in 2009, until the World Series; before that he was only intermittently available, let alone effective, for the Mets. Even if he hadn't briefly been arguably the best pitcher who ever lived, a pitcher who's struck out 8.4 and walked 2.8 per nine innings in the four years since he last pitched a full season would garner serious scrap-heap interest.

Pedro Martinez combines that scrap-heap charm with having been, briefly, the best pitcher who ever lived. If you have some so-so options and want to paper over them with a guy who'll pitch 20 times, if you're lucky, this is it.

2. Stand down and wait for things to look different in June. Nobody but Pedro Martinez is going to be significantly better than the options the Cardinals are already looking at. Braden Looper? Maybe in the bullpen, if Russ Springer doesn't fit the ROOGY bill. Jarrod Washburn?

The pitchers who are left—it seems there are fewer veteran pitchers than hitters left waiting for jobs in this market, which has been death to middling veterans, maybe because the pitching equivalent of Jermaine Dye is on shoulder surgery number two—are not sure things. Smoltz wasn't a sure thing, either, but he represented the possibility of better things in the fifth starter role. The remaining free agents have low upsides and are coming off, in some cases, significant risk. The Cardinals already have one of these guys.

The Cardinals may be thin at the back of the rotation, but what remains is mostly replacement level—better to see if Kyle McClellan (or Jaime Garcia, or Rich Hill, for that matter) is a plausible multi-year option in the rotation than counting on the difference between any of them and Braden Looper over 25 starts. If that turns out to be a problem, there are others.

Offday Reset.

2010-03-17T16:03:33Z

More photos » Richard Drew - AP

3 days ago: St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Jaime Garcia delivers to the Washington Nationals in the sixth inning during a spring training baseball game in Jupiter, Fla. Tuesday, March 16, 2010. Garcia, hoping to earn the fifth spot in the Cardinals' rotation, boosted his bid by striking out seven. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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As far as artificially created division points go, an off day in the middle of March isn't a bad place to start, really.

It's not really accurate to call this the midpoint of camp, I realise; however, it does serve a storyline far too conveniently for facts to get in the way. Games have been going on for just about two weeks now, and there are about two more weeks to go. By the first of April, all that can be learned will likely have been, and the Cardinals will be ready to move forward into the 2010 baseball season. So yeah, we're going to call this the midpoint of camp, and I'm going to feel mighty fine about it.

So it's progress report time, boys and girls. There were really three main areas with significant decisions to be made coming into spring training: third base, the fifth starter's spot in the rotation, and the bullpen pretty much as a whole. Let's reset those questions and see where we stand now, shall we?

As I sit here on the morning of the 17th of March, I have a cup of tea in my hand, a hot cross bun in the other, and Bowie's "Young Americans" spinning happily away on the platter. My baseball team is the favourite to win the National League Central Division. My car is paid off and there are three Schlafly Christmas Ales left in my refrigerator thanks to careful rationing. In short, life is actually pretty damned good this Wednesday morning. And it's thanks to this current quality of day that I can look at my favoured ballclub and say, "Yes, it is rather good to be a Cardinal fan right now. Thank you for asking."

Third Base

When camp opened, David Freese was seen as the near-prohibitive favourite to win the Cards' starting third base job. A month later, very little has changed on the Hot Corner frontier. Freese is still the favourite, with Joe Mather looking destined for a very handsome fourth outfielderdom. It's interesting Mather got his first start of spring at third base yesterday, but I don't know if it's anything more than interesting.

There are two wild cards in the third base race: Felipe Lopez and Freese himself. Lopez, signed just before camp got underway in earnest, isn't much shakes with the glove, but he has that veteranness so beloved by the manager and his bat plays better than virtually any other in the second spot in the lineup. The most sensible option, of course, is for Lopez to get his 300-400 plate appearances at a variety of positions, but if there's a spot on the diamond I could see La Russa just pencilling in 'Lopez' night after night, it's definitely third base.

The other wild card is Freese's performance this spring; or, rather, his lack thereof. The sample sizes are all still ridiculously small, but Freese hasn't exactly lit the world on fire this spring. His bat has been slow to come around, and more worrisome, he's made several errors in the field, where his reputation has mostly been built. Add in a couple of baserunning gaffes and it doesn't seem all that unfair to question if Mr. Freese has his head entirely in the competition.

Nonetheless, the job still appears to be his to lose. I think Freese will have to play himself out of playing time more than any other player will be playing into it.

Fifth Starter

Now this one is much more interesting, especially if one happens to have paid attention to the box score from yesterday's game. More specifically, the line just to the right of Garcia, J. The part where it says three innings, no runs, one hit, one walk, and seven strikeouts.

The fifth starter race has been seen as a two-man race for quite some time, and it's probably down to about one and a half now. Kyle McClellan has been his typical whelming self, while Rich Hill has struggled to throw strikes and find a consistent delivery. Sure, Hill could still end up winning the spot, but things aren't looking all that up for the man with the big curve.

On the other hand, with Garcia's ERA all the way down to 1.04 now for the spring and him looking stronger each time he takes the mound, one has to wonder if he might not be able to force his way back into consideration after all.

Here's something we definitely know: Ben Jukich is not getting a chance to make the Cardinals out of spring training. (Why they bothered to pick him in the first place if they don't mean to give him any innings I don't understand, but that's another issue entirely.) Ditto Blake Hawksworth, who has yet to see anything resembling a multi-inning starter's audition. The only man who seems to have even an outside chance of crashing K-Mac and Hilldawg's exclusive gathering is Garcia.

The Bullpen

And this is the one I'm really worried about. At the beginning of spring training, the lefties were set, the righties were pretty much wide open, but the closer's spot was fully settled. So hey, at least the tough situations were covered, right?

Well, from where I'm sitting right now, I don't see any reason to be at all excited about Ryan Franklin closing out games for the Cardinals in 2010. Nor am I certain Jason Motte really has turned any sort of corner, proverbial or otherwise. Really, the one and only guy in relief I can honestly say I believe in right now is Trever Miller. He looks as if he's picked up right where he left off in 2009, when he was the best LOOGY in the game.

The possible departure of McClellan for the rotation only exacerbates the bullpen situation. Sure, I'm not a huge fan of K-Mac's stuff or the resulting peripherals, but the fact is he's been a very useful reliever for the Cards the last two years. If he heads for a starting gig, that's just one more hole to be filled.

Unfortunately, Mitchell Boggs hasn't exactly lit Roger Dean on fire yet in the 'pen, causing many of us to worry his late season performance was some sort of mass hallucination, brought on by thousands of undiagnosed brain tumours. Hawksworth is what he is; he doesn't strike out enough batters to be a feared presence, at least in my book. Motte has looked fine, but that whole thing about throwing more than one pitch is stil a little iffy for the Hoople. Eduardo Sanchez has unbelievable stuff, but I just don't see him as ready quite yet. Fernando Salas was a little shaky early on, but his last couple outings have been very, very impressive. I don't think he's beating anyone out just yet, but it might not be a bad idea to get him in your mind as the first guy up.

So really, what have we learned after all this time already in camp? Well, to be honest, not a whole hell of a lot.

It's probably a good thing the front office didn't listen to us and our demented Ben Sheets lust.
Ryan Ludwick looks better right now than he did at just about any point last year.
Colby Rasmus actually is capable of taking a walk; you just have to get him in the right mood.
Trever Miller with a bum shoulder can still kick your ass every day of the week.
When Carpenter and Wainwright struggle, it's spring training. When Kyle Lohse struggles, brother, it ain't pretty.

And finally, the leaders so far in our Spring Surprise Sweepstakes are, on the hitting side, probably Allen Craig and Nick Stavinoha. There's no reason to be surprised by Craig's offensive acumen, of course, but he's been all kinds of impressive. As for Stavinoha, um, well, you say he has a high average with very little in the way of power or on-base skills? Well, I guess there's a reason we call him Fat Miles, eh?

On the pitching side, it's a little harder, honestly. Very few of the Cardinal pitchers have really stood out to this point. All the starters have been very up and down. Franklin has been non-ironically awful; most of his bullpen mates have failed to distinguish themselves with great performances. So to this point, the pitching surprise clubhouse leader would probably have to be Jaime Garcia. Sure, we knew he was probably pretty good if healthy, but his performance to this point has been very, very impressive. Impressive enough he just might win an award for someone.

The Baron's Playlsit for the 17th of March, 2010 -- Monet

"Make You Mine" - Best Coast

"The Last Good Night" - Parker & Lily

"Until Then" - Broadcast

"The End of the World" - Girls

"Bells Ring" - Mazzy Star

"Deep Sea Diver" - Grizzly Bear

"Manteo" - Love Language

"Love Can Destory Everything" - the Raveonettes

More Cuts: A Reality Pilot

2010-03-16T10:00:22Z

SCENE

MATT HOLLIDAY's contract has put a burden on the payroll that must be paid in novel ways. TONY LA RUSSA has begun purchasing sunglasses in bulk; COLBY RASMUS was paid his meal money in worthless Confederate dollars for most of the second half of 2009, as a hilarious (and penurious!) prank. With the hesitant cooperation of the VERSUS NETWORK the Cardinals have begun filming a documentary of the year's Spring Training proceedings. The footage is presented here uncut.

MOZELIAK: Alright, thanks, everyone, for being here. First of all, I'd like to just say that all of you did a really great job out there. Shane—four for 11, that's a great average, right? And Francisco, you definitely pitched out there, I'll say that. Lots of pitches, too, so everybody saw it.

But of course that's not the reason I've gathered all of you here. It's the middle of March—we're coming up fast on the regular season. And I have to reassign six of you to minor league camp. It's going to be really tough on me, and I'm sure we'll see all of you guys soon enough, but for now some of you are—

LA RUSSA: —fired.

MOZELIAK: —reassigned.

LA RUSSA: Did you see The Apprentice was back on? Bill Goldberg is in it. Every time he does something I hope he uses the Jackhammer on somebody, but he never does.

MOZELIAK: Look, Tony, I'm going to use reassigned. These guys might be future Cardinals.

LA RUSSA: Basically, when Donald Trump fires Bill Goldberg, and he does the hand thing, I hope Goldberg does the Jackhammer on him.

MOZELIAK: I'm going to get back to the reassigning.

ROBINSON: Good. Francisco's so nervous he threw up. I don't know how he managed, but, like, on me.

MOZELIAK: Well, I'm sorry to hear that. The first reassignment goes to... Francisco Samuel. This is awkward.

ROBINSON: Oh, not again—it's all over the place, now. As you might imagine.

[DAVE DUNCAN writes something in his notebook.]

MOZELIAK: I'm sorry, Francisco, but no matter how close you get to St. Louis you'll never find a regular spot in a bullpen when you walk a batter an inning. You'll always be a threat to break camp as a Cardinal when you throw that hard, but it's a bad move to start one by inadvertently hitting the clubhouse.

LA RUSSA: What he means is, you're fired.

MOZELIAK: What I mean is that he'll probably be stuck in the minor leagues until he gets his K:BB ratio above two. Which shouldn't be an issue when he strikes out ten guys per nine.

FRANCISCO: I'll be back, I promise, God as my witness.

MOZELIAK: I'm sure, Frankie, I'm sure. The door is—no, over there—to your right—just, just keep looking, you'll find it eventually. Other right.

DUNCAN: Next on the list is Floyd Norrick.

MOZELIAK: Floyd Norrick? Do we know any Floyd Norricks?

LA RUSSA: He's not in this room, and he's definitely not on The Apprentice.

NORRICK: It's—It's Tyler Norrick. Floyd is my first name, and it still appears on certain baseball websites—usually the ones relating to my draft status.

LA RUSSA: Tyler Norrick isn't ringing any bells, either.

MOZELIAK: No.

NORRICK: Mr. Mozeliak, you drafted me. Mr. La Russa, you've put me into games. Mr. Duncan, I've brought you coffee and donuts every day for the last month.

DUNCAN: I'm sorry. It's embarrassing—for all of us, you know.

NORRICK: That's it. I'm following Francisco right out that door.

MOZELIAK: We'll get you both an usher. The next on my list is... Daryl Jones. I'm sure you'll be back soon, Daryl—just keep up the good work. The 2008 good work, I mean. The guys in front of you are all fourth outfielders, but you? You've got the chance to be something more.

JONES: Sir—uh. What about Matt Holliday?

MOZELIAK: You'll... well, you'll only be 30 by the time his contract runs out.

LA RUSSA: Hey, when Matt Holliday was 30 he got a $120 million contract!

JONES: I'm gonna go lift some weights.

MOZELIAK: Then we have... I'm sorry to say it's Bryan Anderson.

DUNCAN: Oh, God, Matt Pagnozzi? So soon?

LA RUSSA: Moz, you know I love you, but cutting Matt Pagnozzi? I'm going to have to put my foot down. Matt, you're not fired.

MOZELIAK: No, no. Bryan Anderson. He's the one who hits for a decent average with a few walks and a few doubles.

ANDERSON: If it helps, I'll be anybody.

LA RUSSA: Look, I don't care how many times you try to do it, Moz, Matt Pagnozzi stays in this camp. I like what you're doing, though, this'll be a ratings bonanza.

MOZELIAK: Next—next on the list is Mark Hamilton. Mark, we really like your bat, and I, personally, was excited to see that .900 OPS after all those years in the wilderness. But right now there isn't really a spot for it in the lineup. We've got a guy on first base.

LA RUSSA: And at third catcher!

HAMILTON: I could—I could play left field.

JONES: Nah, man.

MOZELIAK: It's—there's plenty of room for you in Memphis, I mean, so there's that.

ROBINSON: Guys?

MOZELIAK: Yeah?

ROBINSON: You—you guys should have put more than six guys in the room when you did this.

LA RUSSA: Yeah, I suppose so.

ROBINSON: I feel like I'm probably next. I know, I know. I don't hit enough to be a Major League outfielder, Jon Jay is ahead of me on the depth chart, etc. etc. I'm working on second base and I'm covered in Francisco Samuel's nervousness, so—I'm gonna just catch you guys later.

MOZELIAK: Well.

LA RUSSA: Personally, I think that went pretty well.

Colby Rasmus and Dues-Paying

2010-03-15T10:00:29Z

Credit where credit's due: Joe Strauss's profile of Colby Rasmus hits all the right bullet points, and brings us back—unwillingly, really—to a storyline that usually stops trailing this team when it starts winning.

Eyebrows raised when he would be tardy to a hitters' meeting after taking a clubhouse nap. A quick connection was made between his fatigue and off-field habits. He withdrew, sensing, "If I said something, the reaction would make me feel like it was the wrong thing to say. If I said nothing, people wondered if I cared."

"It's not easy being a rookie here," said Ryan, who played 67 games in St. Louis in 2007 and 80 in 2008. "I don't know why it's that way, but it's kind of the way it is."

I'm more inclined to believe something like this when it isn't being talked up in the wake of a disappointing season, or while somebody's on the way out; there's no need to scapegoat anybody on the 2009 Cardinals, the Man Stew to Busch Stadium's Crock Pot, so if nothing else I believe that Colby Rasmus felt isolated by his teammates, who were living different lives than he was.

Past that—I'm not a reporter; I have no way of knowing what these guys are thinking. But it's true that this decade's Cardinals have graduated few players so finally as Rasmus. Ryan himself is a good example of the way their homegrown players have typically ended up in the lineup—a half-season as a surprise injury replacement, a half-season as a forgotten disappointment, and most of a year as the fully formed Veteran Jester of a winning team. So too the two homegrown players Rasmus Wally Pipped; Ankiel was Ankiel, and Chris Duncan didn't get four at-bats in a game in 2006 until the middle of June, when he went on such a tear as to make his service time irrelevant. Yadier Molina began his career more as Cody McKay's replacement than Mike Matheny's, even if the Cardinals' next move was obvious the whole time.

Rasmus didn't begin the season in the starting lineup, though he always seemed like the third-and-a-half outfielder, but to find a Cardinals career that begins even that cleanly, with so little of what Tony La Russa calls "dues-paying", you have to go back to Albert Pujols. (And if Albert Pujols wanted to join my team I'd be happy to pay the dues for him.) Speaking of which, the relevant quote from the article:

However, La Russa disputes the notion of a clubhouse hostile to young players. Asked about Rasmus' discomfort, he cited "rookie dues."
"We're less of a dues-paying group than some others," La Russa says. "He didn't have to dress up in a ridiculous costume or something like that."

That's an oblique way of deflecting the criticism, at best—wearing dresses in front of the regional sports guys' cameras is fun and games, "virtual isolation" is not—but it is not in La Russa's Fu Manchu mien to be direct in the face of stories that relate to the team's internal relationships.

Whether the premise of Strauss's story is true or not, it highlights something that's true about La Russa and any other manager—there are tradeoffs for playing a certain way, and assembling a team with a certain character, and some of them will hurt. Scott Rolen couldn't keep playing for the Cardinals; Colby Rasmus had a rough rookie year. As Rasmus says himself, if he had been on a different team he might have had a better rookie year. But when La Russa avoids the real question of the team's environment I think he is avoiding the necessary fact of any managerial philosophy—some players won't thrive if the team is playing like it's "supposed to."

Strasburg v. Wainwright - March 14, 2010

2010-03-14T16:28:11Z

[Note by Valatan]: I'm not noticing a FP post today, and there is activity in this game thread, so I'm frontpaging it.

If you're missing an hour, it wasn't me. I swear.

The man, the glare, the schoolyard, Julio Lugo will be sidelined after what I gather is a groin strain. They're saying five "days". Or a "week".

Meanwhile, you can read the Post-Dispatch's feature on Colby Rasmus. Bring a unicorn.

Lineups and scintillating commentary after the jump... from the future.

Gametime is 12:05 Central Daylight Savings "time" on KTRS, GameDay Audio, and XM 184.

Globe-Democrat has the liveblog; ~~Rob Rains is supposed to follow on Twitter.~~

Cardinals

Skip Schumaker - 2B
Felipe Lopez - DH
Allen Craig - 1B
Colby Rasmus - CF
David Freese - 3B
Nick Stavinoha - RF
Yadier Molina - C
Joe Mather - LF
Tyler Greene - SS

Nationals

via minors.mlbcontrol.net

Edit: That's a chicken dinner. Have fun and have at it, VEB.

the ballad of willard brown

2010-03-13T09:57:09Z

More photos » Richard Drew - AP

St. Louis Cardinals Allen Craig tries to avoid being crushed or eaten by this lumbering creature during the second inning of a spring training baseball game in Jupiter, Fla., Wednesday, March 10, 2010. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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ongoings around the league:

in the "avoiding the inevitable" department, brian giles and nomar garciaparra both retired from baseball. beyond the boxscore has some excellent tributes to the careers of both, focusing on their brief peaks. carlos delgado sits by his phone, and an ongoing media stakeout awaiting the falling of a second shoe at mark mulder's house enters its third year.

next-door to the "has-beens" department is the "never-really-weres." this department is not so grounded in reality. kris benson just threw for arizona. the world goes round, several boob jokes will occur in the comments, and kris benson will not be a major league pitcher this year either . technically, he threw 22 innings for the rangers last year with an era of over 8 - i will leave you to decide if that qualifies.

in the "old but not ridiculous" group, russ springer still wants a job and thinks the cardinals are nice still even though they let him and his disabled son go to oakland last year. his FIP projections are better than two of blake hawksworth's three projections (marcel is the outlier) and all three of ryan franklin's. john smoltz remains unemployed as well, though does not figure to accept a minor league contract

i have really enjoyed telling a few stories from the negro leagues over the last month or so. i had thought to be mostly done with my series - which is not to say i won't throw in a story or so in the future. but there's one story that keeps gnawing at me that I have to tell.

it's the story of willard brown, and it's not, strictly speaking, about the negro leagues. willard brown was an outfielder for the kansas city monarchs from 1936 to 1947, except for a couple seasons in which brown was serving in the military during world war ii.

brown was not a fan favorite. today, al hrabosky would gain no end of pleasure in berating him from the booth. brown was a stellar slugger, among the best in the negro leagues. but he grew tired of the barnstorming routine. i think he thought it insulting to have to play whatever semi-pro or amateur team happened to hold court in any given small town of middle america.

so brown grew famous for taking a paperback into the field with him and reading as the game went on. he caught (or didn't catch) any balls in play in a haphazard way. in doing so, he violated several of baseball's major commandments, including number one, which is "hustle!"

as such, he was an odd choice to put in the first wave of players to integrate the game. after jackie robinson broke a 50+ year color barrier, tentative reinforcements joined major league teams, including brown and henry thompson, who became st. louis browns.

brown joined the team for only one month late in the 1947 season. for whatever reaon, brown really struggled at the plate during that time. whether bad luck or a symptom of the distraction of racist taunts or of a team that largely rejected him is unknown.

in one game shortly before his release, brown was riding the bench when his manager called him up as a pinch-hitter. not prepared for the at-bat, he borrowed a bat from one of the white players on the team.

brown strode to the plate and hit a home run, the first ever hit by an african-american in the american league. returning to the dugout, he faced a silence from his teammates that has faced many rookies after their first home runs. but there was no light-heartedness behind the silence from his teammates; nobody suddenly broke into laughter to let him know it was all a joke.

the silence continued to hang as brown returned the bat to its owner. the player took the bat from brown, looked at the bat for a moment, then raised it, and smashed it to pieces on the dugout steps.

brown would never play in the majors again. he went to play ball in puerto rico for the rest of 1947, then returned to the monarchs. he finished his negro league career in 1950 with a lifetime average of .355 (and a major league average of .179). he is a member of the baseball hall of fame.

Fantasy Update

2010-03-12T22:00:31Z

More photos » Richard Drew - AP

7 days ago: Hall of Fame member and former St. Louis Cardinals manager Red Schoendienst signs an autograph for Tanner Burnett, age 8, from Springfield, Mo., during Cardinals spring training baseball workouts in Jupiter, Fla. Friday, March 12, 2010. The Cardinals game against the Boston Red Sox was rained out. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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For those of you participating in this year's as-yet-untitled Viva El Birdos CBSSports.com league—and if you were one of the first eighteen people to say you wanted in, you are—I've sent an invitation e-mail out over your VEB registration address. If you didn't get it, or need it again, let me know.

As ever, the Viva El Birdos League, which I'll be talking about like this maybe once or twice a month once the season starts, is free for all parties concerned. But if you'd like to start your own Commissioner League on CBSSports.com for 50% off, click through this link. With 12 people, it'd end up running $7.50 a head, and for the level of granularity you get in terms of settings and features—I'm actually a little overwhelmed by it all—that doesn't seem so bad.

I'd like to use this post, and some of the others like it, to see how it is other people play fantasy baseball, and also to figure out how, well, I should play it. Scoring is always the first question. There are some weird options here—there's OPS, in addition to the usual stats, but also triple plays turned(?) and a spot for custom formulas. And I plan on taking advantage of all of them.

Some age-old questions about fantasy scoring after the jump—

How do you avoid overrating stolen base guys without taking them out of the game entirely? CBSSports.com helps a little; it offers Stolen Bases-Caught Stealing, which will, at least, penalize the players whose stolen base value isn't even valuable. Now that I have the opportunity I'm tempted to use something like Power/Speed number, which might keep one-dimensional players off the board a little longer, but even in a scenario like that you wouldn't need to get power and speed from the same guy.
For pitching, does it make sense to include both FIP and ERA? Whoever picks Javier Vazquez is not allowed to weigh in on this question. But it seems like it might make for interesting draft-day decisions, and I'd love to see, at the end of the season, that somebody has created a Fantasy Dave Duncan team of guys who are successful for no apparent reason.
And, finally, the big one: RBI and W-L record, in or out? Personally, and I hope this doesn't do anything to my Basement Writers Association of America membership, I like having them around. They don't say much about how good a player is, but they describe something, and they center the game, a little, in its long history.

Say you were a commissioner. (Of a league that was 50% off! At this link!) You've got four to six hitting categories and four to six pitching categories to make your ideal head-to-head fantasy league. What do you do? That is, after you append the necessary disclaimer to the end of your sponsored blog post—CBSSports.com is an SB Nation partner and paying sponsor of the SB Nation baseball communities. This post is one of a series of sponsor-endorsed posts related to the CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball Commissioner League.

Two starters we'll be seeing three years from now

2010-03-12T12:01:01Z

More photos » Jeff Roberson - AP

13 days ago: St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse throws during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the Florida Marlins Saturday, March 6, 2010, in Jupiter, Fla. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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I haven't been paying much attention to Kyle Lohse this season, and I'm not sure I will—it's not that I don't think he'll be valuable, it's that I don't think there's a situation in which he's better, more 2008 than the rest of his career, and we can tell he's going to be better. If he has another career season coming on, I don't think I'll recognize it.

Even so, having labored through all that it's still good to see him pitch well. Here in March both Rich Hill and Kyle McClellan are no-doubt future all-stars, but once the regular season starts Kyle Lohse is a useful third-and-a-half starter, whether he's being paid for that or not.

Meanwhile, for Jaime Garcia there is this cold consolation: he is another object lesson in my unending effort to avoid making the same mistake more than five or six times, when it comes to the particulars of following a Tony La Russa team. Which is to say that a month and a half ago I was sure that Jaime Garcia would spend a significant portion of the year in the Cardinals' rotation, and now I am just as sure that I'm an idiot. The mistakes I made, if I may be so bold as to use an ordered list:

I assumed that if the fifth starter role were not filled by a "real" external candidate it would go to the internal candidate most likely to keep it once he had it.
I assumed that the competitions La Russa would set up in the absence of an experienced candidate would be, to some extent, a sham—and not only a sham but one that would be tilted in the direction of Jaime Garcia, the first and arguably best candidate.

My kremlinology, alas, was a mess.

The first one might be seven or eight years of non-stop Baseball Mogul addiction talking. A season in Baseball Mogul lasts three or four minutes if I'm rebuilding; month-to-month variation is coming from the proverbial stat-producing-robot of columnist nightmares, so even if I want to I have a hard time paying attention to it. So a guy like Rich Hill having a great month doesn't enter my mind, even when richhill.txt does.

Of course, the other columnist nightmare comes into effect here, too. I really do spend most of my time in front of a monitor, and I really don't get to see the games, and I don't spend all day watching these guys pitch, work out, goof around in the locker-room. As often as that pejorative gets stretched out—I don't need a press pass or eyes to know that Bert Blyleven was a better pitcher than Jack Morris, or that a player with a high on-base percentage is doing more to score runs than a player with a low on-base percentage—it really does apply here. I don't know what goes on; Tony La Russa is covered in what goes on. Whether it's the best way to choose a fifth starter or not, I'd probably do the same thing if somebody gave me the chance.

I can't blame perspective on the second mistake, though. With La Russa, who's both clearly intelligent and an opposition figure in the artificial divide between cool statistical analysis and personality management, it's easy to infer a kind of distance from the completely earnest things he says. It's the difference between, say, leveraging the idea that successful teams always seem to think they're underdogs and the possibility that he actually believes that his team is always the underdog. He's a difficult guy to read; he wears sunglasses too often.

In this case, I think he really does believe in the competition that goes on every year around this time and is resolved, sometimes, before it even gets started. If it seems like Kyle McClellan has been fated to take the job since his name was first floated, and that Jaime Garcia hasn't had a chance for two weeks now, it might be true; but I don't think La Russa starts from that proposition and builds the idea of competition around it.

For instance: he might be fooling himself, or he might be fooling us, but today's Strauss feature on Garcia has the usual he's-very-much-in-it language:

Duncan said before the game "it would be impossible to ignore" what Garcia has done so far. "You certainly take note of it," he said. "Where does that take you? It's hard to say because it's still early. But he's been impressive."

kremlinology-wise, La Russa's indication that he could end up in the bullpen sounds, depending on how I play it back in my head, like an indication that he will. But for now I'll stick to my first two mistakes.

1999 and 2009

2010-03-11T11:00:34Z

More photos » Richard Drew - AP

9 days ago: St. Louis Cardinals' Allen Craig, left, is congratulated by Yadier Molina, who scored on his second-inning, two-run homer during a spring training baseball game against the Washington Nationals in Jupiter, Fla., Wednesday, March 10, 2010. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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Yesterday Shelby Miller struck Chris Duncan out, and while I didn't see it (or even hear about it live) I am taking as a matter of faith the fact that it was awesome. With Miller a few years from a long-term stay at Major League camp things have been a little dry, prospect-wise; there is the kind of enjoyment one gets from watching Stephen Strasburg pitch as a National for the first time, and there is the kind of enjoyment one gets from watching Allen Craig and Joe Mather compete for a job on the bench, and the Cardinals have begun 2010 with a lot of one and almost none of the other.

That the strikeout victim was Chris Duncan doesn't necessarily make it more awesome, but it adds something I can't quite put a word to; it also allows me a neat segue to the kind of untimely comparison that March engenders. Chris Duncan was the Cardinals' third first rounder in a 1999 draft that produced Dunc, Josh Pearce, Ben Johnson, Jimmy Journell, Coco Crisp, Mike Crudale, Bo Hart, and some other guy.

Coco Crisp and Chris Duncan isn't a bad haul for a draft, let alone Albert Pujols. But it's an interesting draft; far from the stingy drafts of 2002 through 2004 that kept the Cardinals' system in the dumps, the 1999 draft that pushed them in that direction was plenty rich for the average team's blood. It just didn't work out.

First Round, Pick 30: Chance Caple, RHP, Texas A&M: This pick was courtesy the Braves, who'd signed away Brian Jordan; the Cardinals' real pick, number 18, went to the Orioles for Eric Davis. A big (6'6") college pitcher without a dominant strikeout pitch. John Mozeliak, director of scouting operations at the time, may not know art, but he knows what the Cardinals like. Caple signed soon enough to make seven starts in short-season New Jersey, then spent a perfectly good full season in high-A Patomac.

Caple's one of the increasingly rare pitchers who never made it anywhere near back from elbow surgery. He missed all of 2001, then walked 77 batters in 109 innings during his 2002-2003 comeback. (According to a contemporary Baseball Prospectus article—I wasn't following so closely at the time—he also lost time in 2002 when he "suffered a broken hand when a foul ball drilled him in the dugout."

First Round, Pick 36: Nick Stocks, RHP, Florida State: Hey, it's the kind of pick we like to see every year! Stocks was a supplemental pick, but he got top-twenty money, $1.4 million. A USA Today article from 2002, stranded even now on their old website interface, has the following:

Back trouble didn't shut Stocks down in 2001 but it definitely deflated his numbers. The supplemental first-rounder in 1999 out of Florida State posted a 3.78 ERA in his pro debut in 2000 at Peoria. Like Journell, he already went through Tommy John surgery in college. "He has an electric arm and a plus-plus curveball," Mozeliak said. "All he needs is to make the adjustment to pitching at a higher level."

He never did, of course. 2000 was his best year in the minors; for the next several seasons he struggled to get out of AA as his control wavered and the injuries piled up. He reached AAA as a reliever in 2004, but got hammered in Memphis and sent back to AA in 2005 after a terrible camp; he was released shortly afterward.

First Round, Pick 46: Chris Duncan, 1B, HS: Duncan! Extra young—he played an age-18 season—and extra named-Duncan, he remained a prospect in the Cardinals' weak system long after 5'11" John Doe would have, then stopped being a prospect, and then crushed the ball for a year and a half in a way that was almost completely unforeseeable from his minor league numbers. Without his brief stint as Prince Fielder (on offense and, it should be said, defense) in 2006 the Cardinals are missing a World Series trophy.

To be honest, I'm not sure what there is to learn from a draft like this, except that to retreat, as the Cardinals did after their late-nineties trip into over-slot overdrive, into the chintzy drafts of the pre-Luhnow period doesn't do anything but save money. Sometimes a well-planned draft—especially one with two pitchers at its head—is a miss. Back problems crop up, a guy gets beaned in the dugout, etc.

The 2009 draft was a perfectly satisfying blogosphere draft. A high-risk, high-upside high school starter, some weird picks like Robert Stock and Scott Bittle; I, personally, cannot ask for anything more. But even though we have ten times the information we had in 1999—following a minor league team game by game was an ordeal as recently as 2006 or 2007—the risks are still there, and being able to watch Miller's every start live doesn't actually make his elbow more secure. I feel like someone who's been given the opportunity to watch his empty house on closed-circuit TV while he's on vacation; I'm glad I don't see any burglars in the area, but I still can't do anything if they show up.

That said, Robert Stock has a single and Shelby Miller has a strikeout. (And Scott Bittle doesn't have to retire after all!) I won't worry about the Curse of Chance Caple until I absolutely must.

2010 Draft Preview Part Two - College Lefties

2010-03-10T17:43:14Z

More photos » Steven Senne - AP

Adam Ottavino, former first round draft pick, simultaneously exults and breaks the hearts of Cardinal fans everywhere with a beautiful yet poorly-located offering. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

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You'll have to forgive the late, and probably somewhat rushed, post today. Work has conspired against me this week. I blame the abstract concept of money.

First things first; before I jump into a couple scouting reports, I have two missives from the Department of Credit Where Credit is Due I feel I should pass along.

Just to prove to everyone out there that no great comment will ever go unappreciated, I bring you this gem. (Also, you get bonus points for Leonard Cohen references, always.)

With the news MLB is considering a radical realignment in which they would allow teams to move from division to division based largely on their willingness to compete in any given year, I couldn't help but think back, back, back to the days of yesteryear. I'm sure the old-timers will recall Larry going on vacation a couple years ago and giving Solanus a chance to front-page it; the result was a very curious series on realigning baseball in the matter of the Premiere League, in which teams which are competing rise to the top division and those who are rebuilding fall to the bottom of the tank with their fellow scrub squads. We all laughed at the time, but who's laughing now?

Okay. Credit given, onward to the meat.

Oh, wait. Before we get to that, a moment of silence for Corey Haim. As of press time, Corey Feldman has been placed in protective custody.

I'm doing three college left-handers this week. Onward and upward.

Drew Pomeranz, LHP, University of Mississippi

6'5", 230 lbs.

DOB: 28th November, 1988

Player Page

So, what's so great about this guy?

I received two outstanding scouting reports on Pomeranz from VEB members Cardball and bmorgan; thanks to both of them for their efforts. It is greatly appreciated, fellows.

As for the reports on Pomeranz themselves, both agree with what is generally the book on Pomeranz: he's a big, physical lefty with good stuff who should pitch in the front half of a major league rotation one day. Cardball specifically said Pomeranz reminded him a bit of Mark Mulder, and I can certainly see that. He also reminds me a bit of Mike Minor, another big lefty taken out of Vanderbilt in last year's draft.

Pomeranz starts his repertoire with a fastball that cruises pretty easily in the 90-92 range consistently. Both my scouts on the scene reported he touched up to 94, especially after getting a bit rattled later in his outing and seemingly throwing a bit of frustration with each pitch. One noted he looked to be feeling for his command early in the game, and actually threw much better, more oomph and less effort, after giving up a home run and getting a bit angry. (That actually does remind me of Mulder a bit. I recall an outing, against whom I don't know, where he was nibbling the outside corner all day long, and gave up about a three run rally in the sixth inning. Suddenly the next batter was a righty and Mulder came inside on the guy, hard. He looked pissed, and added a couple ticks to his fastball, jammed the shit out of three righties in a row, and just generally looked like a different pitcher. Weird.)

The question of Pomeranz' secondary stuff is an interesting one. I've read conflicting reports on it, with many reports stating his changeup is his best offspeed offering, while what little video I've seen and the eyewitness reports seem to contradict that. Both called his changeup his weakest pitch, while talking about two speeds of breaking ball. This jibes fairly well with what I've seen of Pomeranz; he seems to throw two different breaking balls, one with more tilt and a little faster and the other slower and larger that's more of a true curve. I honestly don't know if they're two different pitches or if he just wobbles with his curve and lets it get a bit slurvy at times.

Pomeranz's curve is a bit further on at this point than his other offspeed pitches in my opinion, and it's a pretty good one, although occasionally a bit loopy. It should be easily tightened up, though, and I think his overall package of stuff will play well at the next level. He has a big, mature frame that is a bit similar to Mulder's, though he carries a bit more bulk. At the very least, Pomeranz just flat-out looks durable. Of course, that doesn't mean anything, but when I look at him he just screams workhorse. His delivery looks fine in full speed, but he does seem to get mechanically out of whack, leading him to struggling with his command at times. Again, not something which would require an overhaul, just some tightening.

The thing is, I would be very surprised if Pomeranz is still available when the Cards pick. I would love it if he were, because a big lefty with his kind of raw stuff would be a great add to the farm system, but he's been too highly rated for too long now for me to think he'll last very long come draft day. I haven't seen quite the kind of polish from Pomeranz many scouting reports tout him as having, but I still think he's got a nice ceiling and a strong chance of reaching it.

James Paxton, LHP, University of Kentucky

6'4", 220 lbs

DOB: 6th Novemember, 1988

Player Page

So, what's so great about this guy?

The James Paxton Saga is a long and winding one, and most closely resembles the very similar case of Andrew Oliver, the lefty from Oklahoma State who fought and won against the NCAA just two years ago, but then accepted a settlement, voiding the decision against college sports' governing body. If you want to read more about the legal finaglings of either pitcher, I'll direct you here for Paxton and here for Oliver. Paxton was selected by the Blue Jays in last year's supplemental round, but decided to return to school in order to graduate.

I'm not really all that interested in the legal side of James Paxton's story, though. I'm only interested in what he might bring to my team on draft day. And what he brings is mighty impressive.

James Paxton throws hard. Really hard. As in he can get it up into the 96-98 range hard. He sits lower than that, of course, with an average velocity of about 94, but 94 from a lefty is nothing to sneeze at. Paxton's fastball also has excellent sinking life to it, allowing him to generate plenty of weak contact. His slider gives him a second plus pitch, as it has hard late break, though it's a shorter sort of break; almost a cutter, really. Regardless, his fastball/slider combo is one of the best 1-2 punches of any pitcher in the draft.

The rest of Paxton's package, though, is somewhat less impressive. He lacks polish, as his control is often spotty and doesn't seem to be helped much by his long, slingy sort of arm action. His changeup is a long way from being usable, though he is capable of throwing one and would occasionally show it to hitters, particularly early in the game. (Probably largely due to the number of scouts in attendance at his starts.) The wobbly control and lack of a third pitch have hurt Paxton, whose results have never quite matched his talent. He struck out 115 hitters in 78 innings for Kentucky in 2009, but had a 5.86 ERA and allowed better than a hit per inning.

Paxton will reenter the draft this year as one of the best pure arms on the market, though one that comes with some definite baggage and notoriety. Personally, I think that's unfair, as he was caught up in the NCAA's ridiculous policies, but MLB clubs may view things in a completely different light. I just don't know. Regardless, he's a hugely talented pitcher whose raw stuff puts him up there with absolutely anyone. With his slingy arm action and powerful fastball/slider combo, you're going to hear at least one Randy Johnson comparison along the way. While his stuff certainly isn't quite that off the charts nasty, Paxton does bring an impressive repertoire to the sinister side of the pitching world.

Any team taking Paxton is probably looking at a bit more long-term of an investment, as opposed to someone like Pomeranz, who just needs some tweaking to fly through the ranks. More importantly for us, though, there's a very good chance Paxton will be available later in the draft than his talent level would seem to dictate, due to the various issues he's dealing with in regards to the NCAA.

The Cards' track record of developing pitchers with control problems is not a particularly impressive one, and their record with lefties in general isn't sterling. That being said, Paxton's upside is substantial, and he would certainly make an outstanding pick if the Cardinals were looking to add a high-reward sort of arm to bolster their system.

Sorry, folks. I would like to do a third of these, but I'm running short of time. Apologies again for the truncated posting.

The Baron's Playlist for the 10th of March, 2010 -- Forever Drone

"Sorry for Laughing" - Josef K

"Get Up and Use Me" - Fire Engines

"Swan Lake" - Public Image Ltd.

"Eating Noddemix" - Young Marble Giants

"She's Lost Control" - Joy Division

"Rocket USA" - Suicide

"At Home He's a Tourist" - Gang of Four

"Bloodsport" - Killing Joke

Wednesday Morning Fun Fact

2010-03-10T14:12:15Z

Also known as "The Robot doesn't want to open the 700 comment post anymore" quick post.

Take a guess as to Ruben Gotay's 2009 walk rate in AAA Reno. Answer after the jump.

21.3%

That was the best walk rate in the PCL for 2009 and more than double his pre-2009 career walk rate. CHONE projects a 13.9% walk rate in 2010, which seems high to me.

The Frightening Lineup

2010-03-09T11:00:24Z

More photos » Jeff Roberson - AP

13 days ago: St. Louis Cardinals' Jon Jay, left, avoids the tag from Florida Marlins catcher Ronny Paulino to score on a two-run single by the Cardinals' Tyler Henley during the sixth inning of a spring training baseball game Saturday, March 6, 2010, in Jupiter, Fla. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Yesterday the Cardinals were no hit through seven innings, and we didn't have to freak out about it. They weren't the real Cardinals, and they weren't on TV—for all the usual patter about rooting for laundry, we're pretty good, and pretty intuitive, about adjusting our allegiance based on who's wearing it. But here's the difference between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Jupiter Cardinals: Ryan Ludwick, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday.

The Cardinals are a pretty average team all around—there are no clear holes in the 2010 model, and that's a major boon for a team that, in the immediate post-MV3 era, looked like this. And as minor league depth goes—well, yesterday's discussion was predicated on the idea that the Cardinals' replacement level is suddenly somewhat better than replacement level. So I don't mean to advance this as a legitimate complaint about a team that's done everything it can to address same. All that disclaiming aside, submitted for the approval of the midnight society... The Frightening Lineup, as projected by ZiPS.

		AVG	OBP	SLG
1.	Skip Schumaker	.299	.355	.404
2.	Yadier Molina	.289	.352	.389
3.	Colby Rasmus	.260	.327	.411
4.	David Freese	.265	.326	.429
5.	Jon Jay	.276	.329	.388
6.	Joe Mather	.261	.327	.433
7.	Tyler Henley	.264	.319	.395
8.	[Brendan Ryan]	.274	.326	.372

Having watched Khalil Greene, Joe Thurston, and Rick Ankiel just one year ago it's impressive to see that the Cardinals are able to lose their three best hitters and still keep the low OBP at .319—and for a player who would, in a non-test situation, be replaced by Allen Craig (.330). There are three messages, I think, to be taken from a pretend-lineup like this:

If the team doesn't hit in Spring Training, it is often because it is not the team in Spring Training. During the few games Albert doesn't play in the regular season I find myself underestimating the drop-off between the lineup I'm used to watching and the one with Yadier Molina starting at first base, because of the anything-can-happen clause. But even one game at a time it happens considerably less often when Albert Pujols sitting on the bench.
The Cardinals have a lot of depth that would not be altogether embarrassing in the starting lineup for a week or two at a time. It'll be interesting to see if the current dearth of minor league upside leads to a brief set-back in that department a few years from now.
No matter how good the depth is, a team can't win by being really deep everywhere; only one of the Cardinals' various 1.5-2 win options at third base can play at a time, and those cheap wins don't stack. The Cardinals' plan of building around two or more high-value players on the cheap gets better and better as mid-range players like Felipe Lopez find themselves getting killed on the free agent market.

In related news, this story is obviously as frightening as minor back pain gets. The incentive to build a team from cheap, interchangeable widgets is basically summarized by this story; it is the safe thing to do, and the thing that does not trip huge alarms in the middle of March over one missed Spring Training game.

CBSSports.com and SB Nation: Your Chance to Destroy Me at Fantasy Baseball

2010-03-08T23:00:26Z

If I had to make a list of things I was terrible at that bode ill for my career as a baseball blogger, these two things would be on it: self-promotion and fantasy baseball. Today, then, is a special occasion: I'm about to do both.

You may have already noticed the network messages about it, but SBN and CBSSports.com have partnered up to offer premium fantasy baseball leagues at a discount for the 2010 season. You'll see them all over the usual ad spots—apparently the KY people were not willing to offer discounted fantasy baseball leagues—and in sponsored posts like this one across the SBN baseball network.

That means two things to you, The Viewer:

By clicking this link, and others like it, you'll be able to set up CBSSports.com Commissioner Leagues at a 50% discount, which comes to $90 after a 14-day free trial. These are the fully featured models, including keeper-league capability, live scoring, full control over rules and scoring, live chat, and analysis. (Full disclosure: I get a kickback every time you click that link, and others like it, and set up a commissioner league.)
I'll be commissioner of a Viva El Birdos fantasy league on CBSSports.com, which I'll write about periodically over the course of the season. It's a Head-to-Head league, statistical categories as-yet-undetermined, because that is the only kind I know how to play.

If you'd like to be involved in the league, leave a comment. (I'm also taking suggestions for the league name.) I've cut back on my fantasy play, so this is your one chance to see just how bad I am at fantasy baseball, and just how terribly I overrate prospects in the middle rounds.

Here's the 50% off link one more time, and here is my first-ever small print: CBSSports.com is an SB Nation partner and paying sponsor of the SB Nation baseball communities. This post is one of a series of sponsor-endorsed posts related to the CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball Commissioner League.

Bench Warming

2010-03-08T11:00:29Z

More photos » Jeff Roberson - AP

St. Louis Cardinals' Colby Rasmus hits a solo home run during the second inning of a spring training baseball game against the Florida Marlins Saturday, March 6, 2010, in Jupiter, Fla. He can't even sell a proper follow-through. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Yesterday's action illustrated the odd mechanics of the fifth starter competition—both Kyle McClellan and Rich Hill impressed, but no matter what McClellan does, he's a right-handed relief candidate and Rich Hill is a lefty in a bullpen with two of them under contract. If Rich Hill becomes the fifth starter they'll both break camp as Cardinals; if McClellan does it will be interesting. (Pete Parise, at least, has not yet wilted under my suggestion that he might be future-McClellan.)

The first cuts came in yesterday*, and there were no surprises. Some 2011 options (Daniel Descalso, Tyler Henley); two young shortstops who are in over their heads (Donovan Solano, Pete Kozma); Memphis depth and an elbow surgery victim (Charlie Zink, Sam Freeman); and various catchers, most pressingly 2009 sleeper Charles Cutler and 2009 draftee Robert Stock.

For those of us trying to divine the makeup of the bench, it was not a particularly helpful cut. But with the minor league camp due to open soon, and our windows on watching long-term guys closing—it was good to see (well, hear) Stock single in his Spring Training debut, however meaningless it was—that's about to be the most interesting story coming out of these increasingly recognizable box scores.

What follows is almost certainly wrong. When I write the same post in 2011 I will no doubt link back to this one and say: Ha! What was I thinking, saying that 2010 Charlie Zink award winner Charlie Zink was Memphis depth! But it's Spring Training and we must try. So here's my best March 8 attempt at handicapping the remaining contestants in the St. Louis bench derby.

Assuming they bring twelve pitchers to St. Louis—and I don't want to talk about it if they don't:

Tier Zero: Jason LaRue

Jason LaRue: I realize the team has to have a backup catcher, but as someone who would love to see more weird platoons and pinch hitting specialists, having to spend a scarce roster spot on one replacement-level catcher a year is infuriating. The backup catcher can never hit, because if he could he'd be the starting catcher; he can't pinch-hit, because there is no calamity more terrifying to managers than the idea that the starter might get hurt after his backup grounded out for the pitcher three innings earlier; and he probably can't play other positions, because backup catchers who can play other positions probably don't hit enough to make it worthwhile.

Jason LaRue stayed on a bench that was no more than five players deep all year; he received fewer plate appearances than Tyler Greene and Brian Barden, and had just 21 more than Nick Stavinoha.

Tier One: Felipe Lopez

Felipe Lopez: His ability to play all over the place (and his Major League contract) closes some doors for other would-be bench players. He duplicates Lugo's functionality; he makes it less relevant that Joe Mather and Allen Craig can kind of play third base. And his ability to play shortstop keeps Tyler Greene from looking like a wizard, if not The Wizard, against a stationary backdrop of Julio Lugo. By playing both the third base and middle infield roles, he leaves the remaining three spots on the eventual Cardinals bench relatively flexible; he also makes the players who are on it less valuable.

Tier Two: Good Bets

Joe Mather: As was pointed out in yesterday's comments, Rotoworld considers Mather a long shot to make the Cardinals' bench, but I'm not sure they realize quite how strong the notion that Mather is a legitimate center fielder became during his 2008 stint. I hadn't heard anything about it before he joined the Major League club—I knew him best as a guy who'd had to move off third base and into the outfield, which doesn't often portend great things.

But we were all in thrall to his athleticism, his graceful, non-Duncan way of moving around the outfield and running the bases, and the way the Spring Training roster materialized he has little competition as Colby Rasmus's caddy. Jon Jay is left-handed and has no MLB experience, Shane Robinson can't hit, and after that... well, the only other guys mentioned regularly as possible center fielders spend most of their time in the middle infield. If the Cardinals end up with a fourth outfielder who can play center—and I think La Russa would already have talked about it if he'd planned on, say, sending Ryan Ludwick out there once a week—it almost has to be Joe Mather right now. And if his wrist isn't a wreck, that's probably a good thing.

Julio Lugo: Lugo does most of the same things Felipe Lopez does, and he doesn't do them as well. But he's got a big league contract, and the Cardinals haven't yet dumped him, either on someone else or into the dump. If his knees are better he might be able to hold off Tyler Greene for another year.

Tier Three: Fair Bets

Allen Craig: I hate to see Craig's camp start like this, hampered by nagging injuries, but on the post-Matt Holliday Cardinals Craig has a difficult road to extended playing time. Holliday will play as much as he can, which will probably be a lot; Ludwick will play as much as he can while he's healthy. And in the meantime Craig is second on the third base depth chart among right-handed outfielders with slugging credentials. Craig is probably a Major League hitter, and there are teams out there who are paying more to get less; the Giants, after all, are looking for a boost from Aubrey Huff.

The situation will continue to change until the season starts, and after the Opening Day festivities they'll change some more. But on the ideal version of the Cardinals here in March, his role would be smaller than it ought to be. (If Mather's wrist comes undone and Jay becomes the backup center fielder, of course, Craig looks much better as a fourth outfielder/third third baseman.)

Tyler Greene: Certainly the best defensive shortstop who didn't have wrist surgery recently, but the simple fact that he can go back to Memphis makes it likely that he will. That's probably not the best set-up for the Cardinals-minus-Brendan-Ryan, because of the way Lugo and Lopez duplicate one-another, but right now Greene has 89 excellent Memphis games to his name; there are, I guess, worse fates than giving him another few months to play every day.

Tier Four: So You're Saying There's a Chance?

Jon Jay: I nearly put Jay in tier three—I hope he'll forgive me. He had something of a tweener reputation when he was drafted, but in the interim he's turned into an excellent defensive center fielder, which is good, because he hits like one.

At 25 he's nearly a finished product, and he's already a fair approximation, value-wise, of outfielder Skip Schumaker and So Taguchi and every other fourth outfielder of this stripe. But as another left-handed hitter on a team that's still a little wary of Colby Rasmus's platoon splits, he'll probably spend 2010 trying to replicate his excellent 2008 in AAA.

Nick Stavinoha: Stav probably gets a bad rap from us, given how stupendously badly his MLB career has begun. OPSs of .884 and .853 in Memphis should not really translate to MLB lines of .193/.217/.211 and .230/.242/.379 (wow—did he really get his SLG all the way up to .379?), but it happened, and given his total lack of secondary skills—the Fat Aaron Miles thing is a fair description of his playing style, and he plays the outfield like someone who would, right now, be trying to learn catcher—it's no wonder he's become a game thread pariah.

He's got Craig and Mather ahead of him, and his starting spot at DH will probably not outlive Allen Craig's various maladies. But I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with another 50 at-bats as the seventh(?) outfielder, and another big year in the middle of the order in Memphis.

Shane Robinson: The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced the weird second base thing is an excuse to get him regular at-bats in Memphis. Jay will likely start in center, with Stavinoha and one of Craig or Mather in left and right, but with Jarrett Hoffpauir gone the Cardinals need another non-prospect with which to bilk Daniel Descalso out of some much-needed at-bats.

Given the Cardinals' weird fourth outfielder arrangement, Robinson is probably another fair bet to accrue 25 more at-bats in St. Louis this year.

Ruben Gotay: Maybe the most eagerly sought-after minor league free agent at the close of the season, Ruben and his agents no doubt looked at the Cardinals and thought: this team could use a guy who plays a lot like Felipe Lopez.

Sunday open thread

2010-03-07T08:03:44Z

More photos » Jeff Roberson - AP

/snickers

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Sorry guys, no post today. I've had a very busy weekend so far (my little brother became a Jewish man!), and haven't had time to work on anything.

Some topics for discussion...

Graham's series of primers at LL. There is some good stuff those, and anyone who has questions relating to the topics discussed should speak up.
THT unveils their forecasting system based off of Brian Cartwright's Oliver projections. There are many features available including 6 year forecasts for over 7,000 players, over 1,300 player comments provided by team bloggers (including LBoros for the Cardinals) and weekly updates during the season. It costs 14.95 for the whole year, but in my opinion, it's worth it (especially if you do a lot of Fantasy) and you can think of it as a way to give back to a website that provides a ton of good content for free. /end marketing ad
Wanna get Pitch f/x data? Dave Allen has answers.
The Met's snatched up Kiko Calero, so it appears the only useful free agent left is John Smoltz. Given our hilariously tenuous health circumstances in the rotation, I have no idea why we haven't signed him yet.
Giveml had a really good FanPost recently about the Cardinals and the BA's top 100 prospects list. Basically, our minor league system isn't great right now, and some possible improvements could come from more high risk picks in the draft as well as tapping the foreign markets. I don't necessarily think that a good farm is going to be very important for the Cards over the next couple of years, given the stability of our roster; however, once Molina, Wainwright, Pujols, et al, start to get more expensive, we are going to need a good farm to sustain success (or raise payroll). However, I can say that I have full confidence in Luhnow to revamp the system.
Here is a cool article looking at whether or not a pitcher's velocity has a predictive effect beyond his stats. Basically, are the slow throwers more likely to under-perform their projections than the hard throwers? The answer will probably not surprise you. This study only scratches the surface of what is the next frontier of sabermetric analysis, which is, in my opinion, the reconciliation of stats and scouting.
Finally, some time in the next couple of weeks, I will be answering 5 questions about the St. Louis Cardinals for THT. LBoros did them last year. I think I am supposed to generate the questions and answers myself, but that seems kind of boring to me, so I would rather take questions from you guys. So if you want to help, just indicate that you are asking a question, and if it's interesting, it might appear in the article.

spring is here! spring is here! life is skittles, and life is beer!

2010-03-06T12:00:32Z

More photos » Jeff Roberson - AP

New York Mets catcher Omir Santos, left, waits for the throw as St. Louis Cardinals' Tyler Greene scores on a two-run single by Colby Rasmus during the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game Friday, March 5, 2010, in Jupiter, Fla. That's right, a baseball game. A real, live baseball game. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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well, baseball has returned, if not to the lou, at least to jupiter. and with real actual baseball, viva el birdos can resume being the best live-baseball-covering website named for a spanish malapropism on the web since "caramba a mi pantalones."

with the desperation of courtney love enjoying some china white after 28 days in rehab, the usual cast of characters on VEB have lapped up every minute of doesn't-actually-countball. the excitement of our first real baseball in months has led to some slightly overheated discussion of what the two games played so far mean for our team. i just want to remind everyone that nothing even during the regular season determines whether somebody does or does not play with the team. in a sample size of the last four games, both matt holiday and ruben gotay will be hard-pressed to make the final cut.

this is the point where i could remind you of khalil greene's performance in spring training last year, or how awfully someone who was good played in spring training, or . . . well . . . i don't feel like digging those stories up right now. suffice to say that the whole of spring training says very little about whether someone is ready to play ball well or poorly. francisco samuel's performance did not inspire any hope for me, but was far less concerning than his long track record of walking way too many people. even if he'd struck out 9 players straight, i'd still think we should be cautious with him.

in fact, the flexibility in the team is very limited. those actually contending for a roster spot are few and far between. as i count it - and this is very subjective - there are six spots in flux. there's even a certain symmetry which i want to throw out there.

so here goes . . .

the infield

the catcher corps and most of the infield are fixed (molina/larue/pujols/skip/freese/lopez). barring injury, i don't see a way those guys don't come north. there are two spots in play -- the starting shortstop and a utility position. if brendan ryan is healthy, he gets the former. in the mix for the two spots are lugo and tyler greene. there's only even a competition here if brendan is healthy. among the NRIs, i think gotay's chances went down the tubes, not with a thrown away ball on thursday, but when lopez signed. the infield is not really that exciting.

the outfield

obviously, ludwick, rasmus, and holliday are the starting three barring injury, no matter if jon jay hits 1.000 all spring. the two OF spots in play have a trio of serious contenders - mather, craig, and jay. again, health is as much a question as talent. a healthy mather could bump either craig or jay back to memphis.

the pitching staff

i will combine the rotation and the bullpen to limit our variables. carpenter/wainwright/lohse/penny are in the rotation in black ink, and franklin/motte/miller/reyes are in the bullpen in a little blue sharpie that dave duncan uses for this purpose. in addition, kyle mcclellan and mitch boggs are going north, either in the bullpen or rotation. that leaves two slots - either one each in the rotation in the bullpen or two in the bullpen. rich hill, jaime garcia, lance lynn, blake hawksworth, jukich, kinney, charlie zink, and pj walters figure to contend for a spot, in something like that order. you could quibble here and there about whether eduardo sanchez or pete parise or whomever should be in there, but that is really the closest to a good list that i can make. i will grant there's room for a surprise candidate here.

if there is a spot of real competition in spring training, it's on the mound. in the field, the real question is the health of brendan ryan and joe mather. the those who remain unmentioned are mostly playing to make a good rep with the team for consideration later in the season or in the event of injury (ottavino, samuel, daryl jones, etc.).

* * *

almost passing my notice was that minorleaguesplits finally posted their full season TZR for the minor leagues in 2009. i looked all winter for something to talk about that had something to do with real baseball and each time found only that the midseason numbers were up. still, it's worth keeping up with the numbers on our more interesting prospects. also exciting was that i looked these numbers up in a chrome browser.

before i begin, i will cover myself by saying that one season's defensive numbers are not very telling.

for someone whose calling card is allegedly his defense, tyler greene has gotten poor reviews for two years running. he amassed a -1 run score in 297 chances at SS in memphis for a -2/150 rating. his 2008 numbers were poor as well (-6/150), though that followed two excellent years including a 22/150 at springfield. i still believe in his defense, but the trend is a little concerning.

allen craig was ranked a solid zero in LF. given that this was his first year in the OF, that's a tolerable if uninspiring number.

jon jay posted a seriously inspiring +7 in CF in 220 chances for a +20/150 ranking - a stellar follow up to a +25/150 ranking in 2008. moreover, in a small sample size in LF he posted a raw +12 (i.e. NOT projected over 150 innings) in 163 chances; while a small sample size, this suggests that his corner OF defense would just be off the charts, which makes sense for someone presenting excellent numbers in center. if he figures out how to hit at a ML level he could be extremely valuable.

daryl jones followed a superb +17/150 performance in 2008 with an injury-hampered +2/150. that he, even with a serious leg injury, put up an okay number gives me a little hope for the future. still, it's on him to show improvements at the plate and in the field this year.

david freese too was rebounding from injury, but played too little and at multiple levels to make it worth recounting his stats.

joe mather also filled out the ranks of the recovering, without posting any positive numbers at any level. his samples were terribly small; the largest was a 152-chance stint at memphis in RF where he racked up a -9 raw rating.

ruben gotay managed a +2/150 at 3b in 156 chances at reno. a lot of his fielding data is at the major league level. his minor league numbers are unimpressive, suggesting a passable fielder at best.

pete kozma has reason to be proud, putting up a +10/150 at springfield to follow a +19/150 last year. maybe he really did deserve that best fielder in the texas league award. permit me this cautious moment of optimism.

dan descalso put up his best defensive numbers yet, with a +4/150 to follow two seasons of negative numbers.

donovan solano spent time at numerous levels and numerous positions, but his small sample of time at SS was very unfavorable. he previously had had some much better numbers at SS.

tyler henley had a fine +5/150 at RF in springfield, which seems in keeping with earlier years of positive but not great numbers.

shane robinson had a very good year on defense at +17/150 to follow several years of good numbers in CF and RF.

nick stavinoha had negative numbers across the board at numerous positions, surprising no one. steve hill did not do much better. mark hamilton had an inexplicably low number of chances at 1b in memphis without much success.

adron chambers, who got a little bit of prospect ranking love this spring, posted a +14/150 at palm beach and good numbers in CF as well, matching exceptional numbers from LF last year.

my pet prospect matt carpenter posted some exciting small sample size specials: raw scores of +8 in 66 chances at quad cities and +6 in 86 chances at palm beach.

no huge surprises in the numbers here. they should all be taken with large grains of salt. numbers that conflict with scouting reports, like tyler greene's and joe mather's, i am happy to take not as gospel but mere cautions for more scrutiny or concern. numbers like jon jay's or kozma's that match with scouting reports i feel free to revel in.

added bonus - ex-cardinal division: brett wallace followed up a raw +2 from memphis with a -6 at sacramento at 3b. a small sample size, but it looks like a move to 1b makes sense for him. jarrett hoffpauir improved his TZR from disgusting (-15/150) in 2008 to merely disappointing (-3/150) in 2009.

Poll

who will most likely leave camp as a cardinal?

Game One: At least it was baseball

2010-03-05T11:00:29Z

More photos » Jeff Roberson - AP

18 days ago: St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Blake Hawksworth takes part in a fielding drill against a white wall as a clear blue sky is seen above during spring training baseball Monday, March 1, 2010, in Jupiter, Fla. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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One more clerihew, on the occasion of what was hopefully the only 17-11 game we'll see this year—

When Francisco Samuel
schedules his annual
trip to the strike zone
the ball's home alone.

Things we can safely remove from the docket of possible spring surprises: my boy Charlie Zink blossoming into a useful reliever; other peoples' boy Adam Ottavino turning a corner before he makes his second trip to Memphis; and Francisco Samuel, whose walk rate sits, today, at 36 per nine innings, leveraging his high velocity and small sample size to jump ahead of the other claimants on Kyle McClellan's possibly empty relief slot. If you're keeping score, Samuel and Zink make two danup-approved narrative suggestions to be shot down in one game; the life of a prospect I'm following is a difficult one.

Watching these guys, especially Ottavino and Samuel, is kind of a dissonant experience after all our combined years of watching Major League players. There are exceptions—Rick Ankiel, briefly, Daniel Cabrera—but most of the time when a pitcher has great stuff he at least sometimes reaches the strike zone with it. The guys like Samuel and Ottavino disappear in the minor leagues. So to watch someone like Samuel outline the strike zone with fastballs is a rare and frustrating experience. Chris Perez, he had bad control; Samuel clearly does not have any.

But there was good news, certainly. Joe Mather isn't all better now that he's smashed one double off a guy who may or may not end up as the Mets' WonderBrad equivalent; he hit six of those (in 136 at-bats) last year in Memphis. But it was great to see him look like he could hit, and if his first base play wasn't exactly stirring I don't ever want to see it again, anyway. Ryan Ludwick looked like Thudwick, too; I'm not about to try to claim his swing looks different, because I can't tell, but that particular swing looked good. And Eduardo Sanchez! He wasn't perfect, but since the pitchers around him walked nine batters I was in awe—relative awe, if that's a thing—of his command.

I was glad to watch baseball, but that was not the kind of game made for paeans to the only sport Without a Clock; nobody would have minded Charlie Zink getting nailed with a three-seconds violation. It was the kind of game that is made more interesting by the removal of all its recognizable players; in the regular season it would have been one of those games where Yadier Molina moves to first base.

Today's action, according to the mothership, will involve Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Yadier Molina, but thanks to the endlessly spiteful machinations of the gods of baseball scheduling we won't get to see it. As a discussion topic to leaven the talk of our terrible TV luck—which player do you most regret not getting the chance to watch yesterday?

For me, it's Fernando Salas. I know Eduardo Sanchez has scouts drooling; I know Francisco Samuel couldn't hit Craig Biggio with a baseball; and I even know that Casey Mulligan gets 0.5 decidangerfields of respect from anyone who has watched him pitch. But Salas, with his great numbers, his varying reports, and his easily-confused-with-Samuel name, is a mystery to me.

March 4 Open Thread: Cardinals! Mets! Baseball!

2010-03-04T12:30:14Z


MacLane	Dickey
0-0, 0.00	0-0, 0.00

Baseball! Baseball that is on expanded cable and MLB.TV! Baseball that features a knuckleballer!

A new year means a new type of fixed-verse novelty poetry. Clerihews for everybody!

R.A. Dickey
Knuckled under quickly
When they found no hint
of his ulnar collateral ligament.

Evan MacLane
to some scouts' disdain
might outgun Rapid Robert
today, with a head start.

The analysis to which you are accustomed will appear after the game. In the meantime, hidden in a Goold blog entry detailing today's travel squad was this, which should be adequate for anyone worried that the Cardinals were not trying anything weird enough this year—

Shane Robinson (who has been working with Jose Oquendo as an infielder)

Well, fine, I guess. But a minor league OPS of .697 in 1100 at-bats doesn't really play anywhere, even though it is, I suppose, exactly 120 points higher than Matt Pagnozzi's. The Cardinals have enough infielders jostling for playing time in Memphis that they released Jarrett Hoffpauir, who already fielded like a converted outfielder but at least hit like one; I'm not sure what this move does, except for neutralize Robinson's one asset.

2010 Draft Preview, Part One

2010-03-03T10:48:48Z

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It suddenly occured to me just the other day that March is already here, and I haven't even started on my draft previews yet. Unfotunately, that means I'm way, way behind schedule; I began the 2008 series in late January and last year I got started barely into the new year. (Of course, that was also partially because the biggest signing to speak of at the time was Royce Ring, but that's really beside the point.)

So without further ado, I'm just going to jump right in to the previews, beginning with one of the most popular demographics for the Cardinals in years past: right-handed college pitchers.

The 2010 draft is going to be very, very heavy on pitching. There just aren't that many positional prospects, aside from Bryce Harper, who are going to find their way to the tops of teams' draft boards. Now, that's not to say there aren't any, and by the time the Cardinals pick at 25 what is left on the board is really anybody's guess, of course. But for the most part, if you're looking for the first-round guys in 2010, you'd better start with the pitchers.

The Cards' record of drafting pitchers in the first round has been less than impressive of late. Last year's first-round pick, Shelby Miller, has worlds of talent and is still full of promise, but it's far too soon to judge what he's going to be. Before him, the last time the Cardinals used a first-round pick on a pitcher was in 2006, when they chose Adam Ottavino out of Northeastern University. Ottavino's struggles are well know to most of us by now, as he has been unable to find consistent control throughout his pro career. Chris Perez did come in the supplemental round that year, and he moved through the season quickly.

In 2005 the Cards picked up two pitchers in the supplemental round, Mark McCormick and Tyler Herron. Both have since been released, with McCormick falling prey to injuries and Herron to a rumoured substance abuse problem. The year before that was the Chris Lambert Fiasco, in which the Cardinals selected Chris Lambert, who became three months of Mike Maroth, with Philip Hughes, Yovani Gallardo, and Huston Street still on the board. 'Nuff said.

So, you know. Not so good. Anyway...

Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Louisiana State University

6'7", 227 lbs

DOB: 9th September, 1989

Player Page

So, what's so great about this guy?

Anthony Ranaudo is a monster, plain and simple. He's a huge, beastly pitching machine, with a low- to mid-90s fastball he forces down in the zone from his perch high above the world. His curveball rates anywhere from an average to plus pitch as well, giving him two powerful weapons with which to overwhelm hitters.

His sheer size on the mound is one of his best assets, as he cuts an intimidating figure at 6'7", and he uses his height to produce a good downward plane on the ball. He reminds me a bit of Tommy Hanson of the Braves in that regard, in that neither throw a true sinker, but both are able to throw on a steep angle which helps them keep the ball consistently low in the zone.

While Ranaudo relies heavily on his fastball to generate strikes, he's also capable of getting swings and misses with a hard curveball in the upper 70s that has excellent movement. Right now, though, the curveball is a less effective weapon than it could be because he struggles to throw it for strikes.

While the stuff is definitely there for Ranaudo to perform at the professional level, there are plenty of questions as well. He has no third pitch to speak of at this time, and has tried out both a changeup and slider with little success. His control is solid, but he has trouble commanding his pitches consistently, relying instead on pure stuff to get his outs. His fastball is fairly straight. Even more worrisome, his velocity was inconsistent late in the season last year, often dipping into the 88-91 range. He was also held out of his first start this season with discomfort in his trowing arm this season.

If Ranaudo is healthy, he's almost guaranteed to be gone long before the Cardinals pick. On stuff and body alone, he's likely a top 5 sort of pick. The only wild card is his representation, as he is a Scott Boras client. Personally, I think he's a wee bit overrated, much in the mold of Andrew Brackman of a couple years ago. Then again, there's a reason I'm not making the big bucks to select my franchise's future, so take my opinion with whatever condiments you like.

Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech

6'6", 230 lbs

DOB: 23rd June, 1989

Player Page

So, what's so special about this guy?

Okay, I'm going to level with you: Deck McGuire's scouting report is going to sound a fair amount like Anthony Ranaudo's, and that's no accident. They're both huge, physical pitchers with that mythical low- to mid-90s fastball. So let's just sort of skip that bit, shall we?

What is different, though, is the offspeed offerings for each pitcher. Rather than one plus breaking pitch like Ranaudo, McGuire features three fairly well developed offspeed pitches, though none of them really rate as putaway pitches. A curve, slider, and changeup are all usable pitches for McGuire, with his slider being considered the best of the three. He's obviously a very mature pitcher with a deep repertoire, and has the stuff to make him more than just an inning-eating mid-rotation guy.

In 2009, McGuire struck out 118 hitters in 101 innings, showing he has the ability to generate plenty of empty swings. His health record is clean so far as I can tell.

To me, McGuire is the better choice between he and Ranaudo, based on health alone. The thought process for picking Ranaudo higher is much the same as the old adage about picking the runner with terrible form: there's more room for improvement. However, I would take McGuire's cleaner health record and wider variety of offerings over Ranaudo's slightly bigger fastball and single plus complement. To each their own, though.

Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State University

6'2", 195 lbs

DOB: 1st November, 1988

Player Page

So, what's so great about this guy?

Where both of the previous pitchers have been big, physical pitchers with hard-but-straight fastballs in the Jeff Niemann mold, Wimmers is a different sort of pitcher. He still throws hard enough, with a fastball that generally clocks in around 89-93 mph, but it's the movement on Wimmer's heater which attracts the attention. He throws from a lower arm angle, basically a true 3/4, and gets excellent run and sink on his fastball as a result. That movement is both a blessing and a curse; while Wimmers is certainly tough to hit (6.7 H/9, 11.7 K/9 in 2009), he also occasionally struggles to throw strikes consistently, walking 7 hitters per nine innings in 2008 and nearly 5 per nine in 2009.

As good as Wimmers' fastball can be, his best pitch is an 11-5 curveball with hard break that he can throw in or out of the strike zone. It's probably the best curve in the draft this year, and one of the best pitches period. Unlike the power curve of Ranaudo, Wimmers does a solid job in general of locating the pitch where he wants to most of the time.

Wimmers also throws a changeup that shows good tumbling action, but he doesn't command the pitch all that well as of yet. There's plenty of potential, though, for a third plus pitch if he can get the change over with more consistency.

The only real question about Wimmers relates to his mechanics. He has a bit of a funky delivery, with a high leg kick and a lower arm angle, that some scouts aren't too keen on. Personally, I like his delivery, but he does have a tendency to let his release point wander according to most reports. (I can't personally vouch for that, as I haven't seen him pitch nearly enough to make such a judgement.) If he can iron out his inconsistencies and improve his control, the sky is the limit for Wimmers. He has the stuff to pitch at the front end of a rotation, with a fastball that generates plenty of weak contact and a true putaway pitch in his curveball.

Of the three pitchers here, I like Wimmers the best. Ranaudo's health scares me and McGuire just doesn't wow me. Wimmers, on the other hand, I just get the feeling watching him he could be special down the road. Unfortunately for the Cardinals and us, the chances of any of these pitchers being available at #25 just aren't all that great. Still, you never know.

The Baron's Playlist for the 3rd of March, 2010

"40 Day Dream" - Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zeroes

"You Are What You Love" - Jenny Lewis and the Watson Twins

"Questions and Answers" - Apples in Stereo

"The Photos On My Wall" - Good Shoes (try to find the version from the single of the same name, featuring the greatest Robert Smith impression ever)

"Cherry Tulips" - Headlights

"The Stars Look Familiar" - I Am Kloot

"Inevitable Thieves" - Scissors for Lefty