Baseball In-Depth

How does Nomar's career stack up?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 19:47:00 +0000

Nomar Garciaparra announced his retirement today, appropriately with the Red Sox. If you had told someone after the 2000 season that he would retire 10 years later with less than 1000 runs or 1000 RBI and a mere .313 average, they probably wouldn't have believed it. He was 26 years old, coming off of 2 consecutive batting titles and appeared to have a clear path to Cooperstown.

Unfortunately, injuries derailed him and he never got close to another batting title after 2000, when he hit .372. During his first 4 complete seasons (1997-2000), he won a Rookie of the Year Award, had 4 top-10 MVP finishes, .337 batting average and a .577 slugging percentage, which is Joe DiMaggio territory. Factoring in the Coors Field Effect for Larry Walker and Todd Helton, Garciaparra was arguably the best overall hitter in baseball during that time period.

Despite his dropoff in later years, his career numbers still hold up well despite years of limited production. Well, he wasn't that bad in his final years, just a shadow of his former self and constantly absent due to injuries. He still managed to hit .287 over his last 5 seasons, but wasn't able to play in more than 122 games in any of them.

Nomar Garciaparra (1996-2009): .313 BA, .361 OBP, .521 SLG, 229 HR, 6116 PA

.313 BA, .521 SLG, 229 HR

Hall of Fame
Babe Ruth
Lou Gehrig
Ted Williams
Rogers Hornsby
Chuck Klein
Al Simmons
Earl Averill
Joe DiMaggio
Hank Greenberg
Stan Musial
Jimmie Foxx

Active
Manny Ramirez
Albert Pujols
Todd Helton
Vladimir Guerrero

Recently Retired
Nomar Garciaparra
Larry Walker

Wandy Rodriguez: Breakout star in 2010?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 00:14:00 +0000

Rodriguez, who is on the Astros, was amazing in the final couple of months of 2009, with the exception of 1 terrible start on August 14 at Milwaukee, where he gave up 10 ER over 4 IP:

2009
14-12, 205 IP, 3.02 ERA, 191 SO, 63 BB, 3.06 SO/BB

July-October: Final 17 starts (minus 1)
8-6, 1.97 ERA, 99 SO, 21 BB, 4.71 SO/BB

One concern about whether he is capable of becoming a star is that he is 31 years old and that seems a little old to finally become an elite pitcher. It does happen, though: one recent example of a late bloomer was Chris Carpenter, who was mediocre until his late 20's, and excepting injuries, has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since he turned 30. Randy Johnson also struggled with control issues until he hit 30, and then became of the all-time greats once he improved his control.

Rodriguez's steady improvement in his SO/BB ratio is an encouraging sign for his 2010 performance:

SO/BB
2005: 1.51
2006: 1.56
2007: 2.55
2008: 2.98
2009: 3.06
Final 17 starts (minus 1): 4.71

Based on how he finished last season, it seems very possible that he could to reach 200 IP, 200 SO, 3.20 ERA and 4.0 SO/BB. If he put up those numbers, he would join an elite group of pitchers:

200 IP, 200 SO, 4.0 SO/BB, 3.20 ERA (2006-2009)
Johan Santana 2006
Roy Halladay 2008-09
Javier Vasquez 2009
Dan Haren 2009
Zack Greinke 2009

He's been constantly improving for a couple of years, so his impressive 2nd half doesn't appear to be a fluke. If he stays healthy, and the Astros aren't terrible, he could make a run at 20 wins.

The Uptons

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:27:00 +0000

Justin Upton was just rewarded by the D-Backs with $51 million over 6 years after his breakthrough season. His breakthrough season was amazingly similar to his brother's in 2007, but the D-Backs probably don't want to dwell on that too much:

By age 22: .300, 20 HR, 20 SB
Vada Pinson (1959): .316, 20 HR, 20 SB
Orlando Cepeda (1959): .317, 27 HR, 23 SB
Cesar Cedeno (1972): .320, 22 HR, 55 SB
Cesar Cedeno (1973): .320, 25 HR, 56 SB
A-Rod (1997): .300, 23 HR, 29 SB
A-Rod (1998): .310, 42 HR, 46 SB
B.J. Upton (2007): .300, 24 HR, 22 SB, .894 OPS
Justin Upton (2009): .300, 26 HR, 20 SB, .899 OPS

B.J. Upton: Post Breakthrough season
2008: .273 BA, .784 OPS, 9 HR, 44 SB
2009: .241 BA, 686 OPS, 11 HR, 55 SB

Of the 123 players with at least 550 PA in 2009, B.J. Upton had the 4th lowest OPS. Even with the problems B.J. had with hustle, he looked primed for stardom after 2007, but it hasn't happened yet. B.J. is still young and talented enough to get back on top, but there will probably be a lot of doubters if he doesn't do it soon.

If he stays healthy, Justin probably will continue his path to becoming an elite player, but he needs to prove immediately that he deserves this contract and that he will not fall into the same problems as his brother.

Chris Coghlan

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 22:50:00 +0000

Chris Coghlan was the NL Rookie of the Year on the strength of an incredible 2nd half, leading the ML in hits in both August and September (he had the highest 2 month hit total since Dale Mitchell in 1947).

He clearly has talent, but the question is whether his rookie season (which was mainly the result of 2 great months) is a fluke or the beginning of a great career.

One way to try and predict his future is to see which other players have had Coughlin-like season at a similar age (he turns 25 in June). Fortunately for Coghlan and the Marlins, he is in good company:

Chris Coghlan (2009): .321 BA, .390 OBP, .460 SLG, 84 R

.320 BA, .390 OBP, .460 SLG, 500 AB in a season through age 24 (since 1942)
Ted Williams 1942
Stan Musial 1943-44
Willie Mays 1954
Al Kaline 1955, 1959
Mickey Mantle 1956
Carl Yastrzemski 1963
Rusty Staub 1967
Bill Madlock 1975
Fred Lynn 1975
Mike Greenwell 1988
Ken Griffey 1991
Frank Thomas 1992
John Olerud 1993
Alex Rodriguez 1996
Jason Kendall 1998
Sean Casey 1999
Albert Pujols 2001, 2003-04
Joe Mauer 2006
Miguel Cabrera 2006-07
David Wright 2007
Chris Coghlan 2009

Johnny Damon: Hall of Famer?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 00:29:00 +0000

New Tigers OF Johnny Damon isn't what most people would think of as a surefire Hall of Famer, and he probably won't have a real shot without 3,000 hits (he's currently at 2425). He's 36, so that's a possibility, if he stays healthy for a few more years. Impressively, he currently is at 1483 runs scored, and the 1500 runs scored club is very exclusive.

There were 38 players who retired before 2005 (and therefore eligible for Hall of Came consideration) with 1500 runs scored.

Elected to the Hall (35 of 38):
Rickey Henderson, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Lou Gehrig, Stan Musial, Dave Winfield, Jimmie Foxx, Mike Schmidt, Ted Williams, Yaz, Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, Charlie Gehringer, Cal Ripken, Eddie Murray, Al Kaline, Eddie Collins, Rogers Hornsby, George Brett, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott, Sam Rice, Eddie Mathews, Wade Boggs, Al Simmons, Frankie Frisch, Reggie Jackson, Max Carey, Lou Brock, Paul Waner, Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Tris Speaker, Joe Morgan

Not Elected (3 out of 38)
Tim Raines (eligible since 2008, received 30% in 2010)
Roberto Alomar (barely missed being elected this year, his first year of eligibility with 73.7%)
Pete Rose (not eligible)

Retired with 1500 Runs since 2004
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Kenny Lofton
Rafael Palmeiro
Craig Biggio

Active Players with 1500 R
Manny Ramirez
Gary Sheffield
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter

Increase it to 1600 runs scored (which Damon has a good chance at), the list drops to 26 players that retired before 2005. Of those 26, 25 are in the Hall of Fame, and 1 (Pete Rose) is not. If Damon gets to 1600 career runs scored, I think he should be a Hall of Famer even if he fails to get 3000 hits.

The Padres should be improved in 2010

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 15:57:00 +0000

The Padres had a miserable season in 2009, finishing 20 games out of 1st place, which followed a 63-99 performance in 2008. They traded their best pitcher, Jake Peavy, at the deadline, but there is hope that their pitching could be pretty good in 2010. Fortunately, the team's performance improved as the season went alone, particularly the pitching:

Team ERA
Pre All Star Break: 4.70 (26th in ML) / 36-52
Post All-Star Break: 3.98 (8th) / 39-35
September 2009: 3.13 (5th) / 17-9
2009: 4.37 (17th) / 75-87

A few of their young starters emerged at the end of the season:

September 2009
Kevin Correia: 3-0, 1.25 ERA (12-11, 3.91 ERA in 2009)
Clayton Richard: 2-1, 3.12 (9-5, 4.41)
Wade LeBlanc: 2-0, 2.48 (3-1, 3.69)
Tim Stauffer: 1-1, 3.10 (4-7, 3.58)

Chris Young and John Garland will headline the rotation, and it's likely that Correia and Richard will be in the rotation as well. The Padres have some other good options for their 5th starter with pitchers like LeBlanc and Stauffer, and some decent insurance if someone gets hurt.

Their hitting is a different story: they finished 29th in runs scored throughout the season, although they improved to 19th in September. They showed that they can win with mediocre hitting and really good pitching, which will probably have to be their recipe for success in 2010.

Hoyt Wilhelm

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 16:31:00 +0000

Hoyt Wilhelm, an unusual Hall of Fame pitcher who did not make his Major League debut until he was 29, and pitched until he was weeks away from turning 50, had a very impressive run in the 60's that has not been matched since.

Since 1920, there have been only 162 instances of a pitcher finishing a season with at least 80 innings pitched and an ERA better than 2.00. 21 pitchers achieved this at least twice in their careers, but only 3 did it more than 2 times: Hoyt Wilhelm (6), Tug McGraw (3), Sandy Koufax (3).

The only active pitcher with more than 1 such season is Pedro Martinez (1997 and 2000). These type of seasons happened quite frequently prior to 1920, with Walter Johnson having 11 such seasons between 1907 and 1919.

80+ IP, sub-2.00 ERA (Since 1920)
Hoyt Wilhelm (6): 1962, 1964-68
Tug McGraw (3): 1971-72, 1980
Sandy Koufax (3): 1963, 1964, 1966

Hoyt Wilhelm
1962 (Orioles): 1.94 ERA, 93 IP
1964 (White Sox): 1.99, 131.1
1965 (White Sox): 1.81, 144
1966 (White Sox): 1.66, 81.1
1967 (White Sox): 1.31, 89
1968 (White Sox): 1.73, 93.2

Another interesting fact about Wilhelm is that he was only a regular starter in 1 out of the 20 seasons that he was in the league. It was in 1959, his 8th season, when he started 27 games (he only started 52 in his career out of 1052 appearances) and only relieved 5. He pitched 226 innings that year (only time he ever went over 200) and led the league in ERA at 2.26. In 1960, he started only 11 games, and only started 4 more games until he retired in 1972.

Team Pitching - September

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 03:02:00 +0000

Team ERA (Full Season Rank)
1. Angels: 2.96 (21st)
2. Reds: 3.04 (9th)
3. Dodgers: 3.08 (1st)
4. Cubs: 3.11 (5th)
5. Padres: 3.13 (17th)

26. Rays: 5.06 (15th)
27. Rangers: 5.07 (18th)
28. D-Backs: 5.24 (19th)
29. Nationals: 5.42 (28th)
30. Orioles: 6.22 (30th)

One of the biggest reasons that the Angels had such a good team ERA in September was that Scott Kazmir, who they acquired on August 28th from Tampa Bay, pitched well after struggling for most of the year, going 1-2 with a 2.01 ERA. When they acquired him from Tampa Bay, he was 8-7 with an ERA of 5.92. This offseason, the Angels lost John Lackey to the Red Sox, but they should be fine if Kazmir continues to pitch well.

Justin Verlander

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 05:20:00 +0000

It's good to see someone in Michigan who isn't having any trouble with employment. Justin Verlander just secured himself an $80 million payday, and it's an understandable decision for the Tigers. It would have been a disaster to lose him, he's only 26 years old and and he just came in 3rd in the AL Cy Young voting. One really good sign for the future is that he led the ML in strikeouts with 269 strikeouts last year and improved his control.

He's always thrown hard, so one might expect that he's always been a strikeout artist, but that that wasn't the case. He was always decent at strikeout out hitters, but he really took it to the next level in 2009.

SO/IP/BB
2006: 124 SO, 186 IP, 60 BB
2007: 183 SO, 201.2 IP, 67 BB
2008: 163 SO, 201 IP, 87 BB
2009: 269 SO, 240 IP, 63 BB

Since 1900, there have only been 15 instances of a pitcher with 269+ SO and 63 or fewer BB in a season:
Ed Walsh 1908
Sandy Koufax 1963
Denny McLain 1968
Fergie Jenkins 1970
Tom Seaver 1971
Roger Clemens 1988
John Smoltz 1996
Curt Schilling 1997-98, 2001-02
Pedro Martinez 1999-2000
Justin Verlander 2009

From that list, also with 19 wins and .679 W-L%:
Ed Walsh 1908
Sandy Koufax 1963
Denny McLain 1968
John Smoltz 1996
Pedro Martinez 1999
Curt Schilling 2001-02
Justin Verlander 2009

Verlander's final numbers last season were really good, but also misleading:

2009
35 Starts: 19-9, 3.45 ERA
1st 4 starts: 0-2, 9.00 ERA, 21 IP
Last 31 starts: 19-7, 2.92 ERA, 219 IP

Homer Bailey

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 23:52:00 +0000

(image by wikipedia)

The Reds' pitching was generally mediocre last year, but they were greatly improved at the end of the season.

Team ERA
April: 11-10, 4.11 ERA
May: 15-13, 4.08
June: 11-15, 4.02
July: 8-19, 5.58
August: 13-16, 4.13
September: 18-9, 3.04

They finished the season 15-5 in their final 20 games. One of the biggest reasons for the turnaround was that Homer Bailey emerged after a terrible start to the season. Bailey had struggled ever since he was first brought up in 2007 at age 21.

Homer Bailey
2007: 4-2, 5.76
2008: 0-6, 7.93
2009 2-4, 7.53 (pre-August 20th)
6-1, 1.71 ERA (post-August 20th)

2007-August 20th, 2009: 6-12, 7.03
August 21-end of 2009 season: 6-1, 1.71

A few years ago, Homer Bailey was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but maybe he was brought up a little too soon. After getting a taste of the big leagues over the past few years, he might have figured it out. Some pitchers just take a little longer, like Edwin Jackson, who was also a can't miss pitcher when he was first brought up in 2003, and he didn't have a good season until 2009.

The Reds probably aren't ready to compete regardless of what Bailey does, but Arroyo and Bailey could be a nice 1-2 punch next year, and Edinson Volquez could return strong at some point in 2010 after Tommy John surgery too.

Oakland's Improved Offense

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 19:04:00 +0000

(Image by wikipedia)

Pre-All Star Break - Bottom 6
25 - A's: 361, .246 BA, 37-49
26 - Reds: 356
27 - Cubs: 355
28 - Mariners: 348
29 - Royals: 346
30 - Padres: 334

Post-All Star Break - Top 5
1 - LA Angels: 422 Runs
2 - NY Yankees: 420
3- Red Sox: 407
4 - A's: 398, .280, 38-38
5 - Twins: 385

Ryan Sweeney
Pre: .271 BA, 255 AB,
Post: .319 BA, 229 AB

Rajai Davis
Pre: .257 BA, 113 AB
Post: .325 BA, 277 AB

Jason Giambi
Pre: .192 BA, 260 AB
Post: .222 BA, 9 AB

Jack Hannahan
Pre: .193, 119 AB
Post: traded to Seattle on July 11th

Orlando Cabrera
Pre: playing for Twins
Post: .381, 63 AB

Mark Ellis
Pre: .210 BA, 105 AB
Post: .279, 272 AB

Cliff Pennington
Pre: Not called up until August 1
Post: .279 BA, 208 AB

They don't have anyone who can hit home runs other than Jack Cust, and he's probably not going to hit more than 30 (he had 25 last year). They made some nice moves after their disastrous first half, especially in getting rid of Giambi and Hannahan, and they may have seen the emergence of Rajai Davis.

It's hard to believe that they'll be one of the very top offenses in baseball as they were in the 2nd half, considering how few home runs they hit (4th worst in 2009 with 135). They were able to score a lot of runs in the second half without hitting many home runs and are an intriguing team to watch next year.

Mike Adams

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 17:37:00 +0000

I knew that Mike Adams had a good season, but I didn't realize it was this good:

(Since 1900): Best WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning), 35+ IP
Mike Adams - Padres (2009): .595 WHIP, 37 IP
Dennis Eckersley - A's (1989) .607, 57.2
Dennis Eckersley - A's (1990) .614, 73.1
Mariano Rivera - Yankees (2008) .665, 70.2
Eric Gagne - Dodgers (2003) .692, 82.1
J.J. Putz - Mariners (2007) .698, 71.2
Cla Meredith - Padres (2006) .711, 50.2
Takashi Saito - Dodgers (2007) .715, 64.1
Jake Northrop - Browns (1918) .725, 40
Pedro Martinez - Red Sox (2000) .737, 217

Mike Adams' final numbers from 2009:
0-0, 0 SV, 0.73 ERA, 3.41 H/9, 37 IP, 14 H, 8 BB

It's an amazing story. He is 31 years old and entered 2009 with only 4 career victories (actually, he left 2009 with 4 career victories too). He went to Texas A&M University-Kingsville, was not drafted and was signed by the Brewers as an amateur free agent in 2001, then made it to the majors in 2004 and had a good season: 46 G, 3.40 ERA. He returned in 2005 with 13 G and a 3.40 ERA, but in 2006 appeared in 2 games for the Brewers, pitched horribly (11.57 ERA) and was traded to the Mets for Gerami Gonzalez.

He never played for the Mets, was claimed off of waivers by the Indians several months later only to be traded to the Padres a few weeks later in July 2006. In 2007, he was released by the Padres, and did not play in the Majors or Minors in 2007. He made it back in 2008 with the Padres and appeared in 54 games with a 2.48 ERA. In 2009, he was extraordinary, even though he didn't pitch until June. Not surprisingly, he made about the minimum salary in 2009. If he stays healthy and comes even close to his 2009 performance over the next few years, he could get a nice contract someday.

This was the fantasy projection from ESPN before the 2009 season:

Image via Wikipedia

The former Brewers' closing prospect turned into a nice strikeout-per-inning middle reliever with the Padres last season with 74 K's in 65 1/3 innings and a 1.04 WHIP. Unfortunately, a repeat looks unlikely after he underwent surgery in mid-October to repair damage in his labrum and rotator cuff. He could wind up missing half of the season, negating much of his fantasy value, and limiting his chance to step into the Pads' closing role if something happens to Heath Bell. There will be may other quality relievers to take a chance on who don't have the uncertainty of Adams.

Tigers have signed Jose Valverde. Good signing?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 01:41:00 +0000

(image from Wikipedia)

The Tigers have reportedly signed Jose Valverde for 2 years to replace Fernando Rodney as their closer. He is approximately 31 (espn.com says he is born in 1978, while baseball-reference has him being born in 1979). He has a career conversion rate of 86%, and it has also been 86% over the past 3 years. As a comparison, Jonathan Papelbon's is 89% and Fernando Rodney's is 72% (although it was 97% last year).

2007-2009
116 Saves (T-4: K-Rod, Joe Nathan, Francisco Cordero, Jonathan Papelbon)
2.84 ERA
10.26 K/9
He even received MVP votes in 2007 (14th) and 2008 (24th), after recording 47 and 44 saves.

He is going to make about $7 million per season, which is significantly less than Francisco Cordero (about $12 million), K-Rod (about $12 million), and only slightly more than Fernando Rodney got from the Angels (5.5 million per year). As long as he's healthy, it seems like a good move. Although Todd Jones certainly had some decent (if heart-stopping) years, Valverde could easily become the best closer the Tigers have had, well, ever.

Switch Hitters - 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 21:50:00 +0000

Pablo Sandoval - Throws Right
Overall: .330 (572 AB)
LHB: .314, 19 (427)
RHB: .379, 6 (145)

Kendry Morales - Throws Right
Overall: .306, 34 HR (566 AB)
LHB: .309, 30 (431)
RHB: .296, 4 (135)

Lance Berkman - Throws Left
Overall: .274, 25 HR (460 AB)
LBH: .291, 18 (326)
RHB: .231, 7 (134)

Chipper Jones - Throws Right
Overall: .264, 17 HR (488 AB)
LHB: .252, 9 (329)
RHB: .289, 9 (159)

Brian Roberts - Throws Right
Overall: .283, 16 HR (632 AB)
LHB: .278, 15 (421)
RHB: .294, 1 (211)

Andre Dawson

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 18:17:00 +0000

Congratulations to Andre Dawson on reaching the Hall of Fame. It took him 7 years to be elected after he became eligible, but he deserves it. He had a rare combination of power and speed, being one of only 3 players with 400 HR and 300 SB, with the other two being Willie Mays and Barry Bonds.

Career numbers can be slightly misleading, especially for players who stuck around beyond their best years, as Dawson did. He stuck around until 1996, and wasn't terrible in those final years, but he didn't perform well either (OPS around .750 each year). During his best years, he put up impressive numbers (in addition to winning a Rookie of the Year in 1977, an MVP in 1987 and 2nd place MVP finishes in 1981 and 1983) that compare favorably to other Hall of Famers from the era:

Ranks - 1977-1992: Andre Dawson
Extra Base Hits 932 (1st)
Total Bases 4307 (2nd) - Murray
2484 H (3rd) - Murray, Yount
2286 G (3rd) - Murray, Yount
399 HR (3rd) - Schmidt, Murray
1418 RBI (3rd) - Murray, Winfield
440 2B (5th) - Brett, Yount, Murray, Parker
1250 R (7th) - Henderson, Yount, Murray, Winfield, Brett, Molitor

Randy Johnson

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 17:19:00 +0000

24-28 (1988-1992): 49-48, .505 W-L%, 3.95 ERA, 9.00 SO/9, 5.71 BB/9, 7.14 H/9

29-32 (1993-1996): 55-16, .775 W-L%, 3.03 ERA, 11.41 SO/9, 3.34 BB/9, 5.71 H/9

33-36 (1997-2000): 75-31, .708 W-L%, 2.68 ERA, 12.25 SO/9, 2.85 BB/9, 6.99 H/9

37-40 (2001-2004): 67-33, .670 W-L%, 2.70 ERA, 11.61 SO/9, 2.21 BB/9, 7.04 H/9

41-43 (2005-2007): 38-22, .633 W-L%, 4.30 ERA, 8.40 SO/9, 2.22 BB/9, 8.37 H/9

44-46 (2008-2009): 19-16, .543 W-L%, 4.24 ERA, 8.33 SO/9, 2.41 BB/9, 9.03 H/9

(All-Time) # of seasons with 250+ SO and .700+ W-L%

Randy Johnson 6

Pedro Martinez 3

Sandy Koufax 3

Curt Schilling 2

Roger Clemens 2

Steve Carlton 2

Bob Gibson 2

17 pitchers - 1 (most recently in 2008 by Tim Lincecum)

Lackluster MVPs?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 17:04:00 +0000

Former MVPs (position players only) who finished with a batting average below .300 and slugging % below .500:

1988 Kirk Gibson (Dodgers) WS

1964 Ken Boyer (Cardinals) WS

1965 Zoilo Versalles (Twins) WS (runner-up)

1962 Maury Wills (Dodgers)

1955 Yogi Berra (Yankees) WS (runner-up)

1951 Yogi Berra (Yankees) WS

1944 Marty Marion (Cardinals) WS

1928 Mickey Cochrane (A's)

1926 Bob O'Farrell (Cardinals) WS

1926 Roger Peckinpaugh (Senators)

1914 Johnny Evers (Braves) WS

Mitigating factors

Maury Wills had 105 SB
Berra, O'Farrell and Cochrane were catchers; Marion, Peckinpaugh and Versailles were shortstops, which means that less offense was expected (especially back then)
Johnny Evers was in the dead ball era, and a 2nd baseman
Boyer was a 3rd baseman who led the league in RBI (119); nobody else in the league really put it together, although Willie Mays had a pretty good year (big surprise) with 47 HR, 111 RBI and 121 R.

In 1988, offense was pretty bad (Tony Gwynn won the NL batting crown with a .313 average), and the fact that the Dodgers went from 73 wins to 94 made a difference. In retrospect, it's a little surprising that Orel Hersheiser didn't get more votes for MVP (remember his record-breaking streak of 59 consecutive scoreless innings).

He won the Cy Young handily (sweeping the 1st place votes), but he came in 6th in MVP voting. For some reason, though, there have been far fewer MVP awards for pitchers in the NL than AL. It hasn't happened in the NL since Bob Gibson in 1988.

In the AL, pitchers won the MVP in 1971 (Vida Blue), 1981 (Rollie Fingers), 1984 (Willie Hernandez), 1986 (Roger Clemens), 1992 (Dennis Eckersley), and was really close in 1999 (I-Rod barely over Pedro).

What if the Rookie of the Year award had started in 1944?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 06:07:00 +0000

The Rookie of the Year didn't exist until 1947 (first winner was Jackie Robinson), and was only league-wide until 1949. Interestingly, there were no actual rules on who was a rookie from 1946-1956 (all up to their discretion), but there have been rules that have evolved since then.

I'll use the current rules in evaluating them: less than 130 at-bats, 50 innings or 45 days service in their career previous to the season in question.

Maybe it had something to do with WWII or maybe it was a fluke, but the rookie hitting performances in the AL from 1944-1946 were incredibly weak. Fortunately, the rookie pitching, especially in 1945 was extraordinary.

1944
NL: Ted Wilks (Cardinals) 17-4, 2.64
AL: Sid Jakucki (Browns) 13-9, 3.55

1945
NL : Ken Burkhart (Cardinals) 18-8, 2.90
AL: Dave Ferriss (Red Sox) 21-10, 2.96

1946
NL: Del Ennis (Phillies) .313, 17 HR, 73 RBI

This was a tough call because it was also Ralph Kiner's rookie year, and he had 23 HR, 81 RBI and a 247 BA.

AL: Bob Lemon (Indians): 4-5, 2.49

1947 - Actual ROY (League-Wide): Jackie Robinson (Brooklyn) .297, 29 steals, 12 HR
AL: Spec Shea (Yankees): 14-5, 3.07
Actual 1947 Runner Up Larry Jansen (NY Giants) 21-5, 3.16

1948 - Actual ROY (League-Wide): Alvin Dark (Braves): .322, 3 HR
AL: Gene Beardon (Indians): 20-7, 2.43 (Actual 1948 Runner Up)

Jason Marquis: The next Charles Nagy?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 16:33:00 +0000

The Nationals recently signed Jason Marquis for 2 years at 15 million. The Nationals are going to have to overpay to get decent free agents, so that's fine. Here's what would really worry me: He has a 94 wins and a .531 W-L%, which isn't bad, but a 4.48 ERA. In ML history, there have been over 300 pitchers with at least 94 career wins, and a .531 W-L%, and only 5 have had worse career ERA's than Marquis.

Darren Oliver

Aaron Sele

Charles Nagy

Dave Burba

Russ Ortiz

Most of these guys really started to flame out around age 30 or 31 (Marquis is currently 31). In 1999 (age 32) Charles Nagy went 17-11 (with a 4.95 ERA), and after that, he went 8-19 with an ERA of 7.50 over the next couple of years. A few years after being a Cy Young contender, Russ Ortiz went 0-8 at age 32, and has put up terrible numbers while barely staying in the league.

Burba was a bit of an exception, because he didn't become a regular starter until he was around 30. Marquis, like Sele, Ortiz and Nagy, has been starting since he was about 24. Oliver also lost it as a starter in his early 30's, but saved his career by become a good reliever in the last few years.

Marquis ended up last year on a bad note as well, losing 7 of his last 10 decisions. The Nationals probably aren't expecting that much out of him, just to be a professional starter who can thrown 200 innings and be slightly above .500. With low expectations, he has a decent chance at being what they expect in 2010, and it's only a 2 year contract, so it's not too bad. If Marquis is anything like Nagy, Ortiz and Sele (and he appears to be), it could be a very bumpy ride starting soon.

.400 OBP /.290 BA

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 05:55:00 +0000

Career: .400+ OBP, sub-.290 BA, 5000+ PA

Roy Thomas (1899-1911): .290 BA, .413 OBP, 6575 PA

Lu Blue (1921-1933) .287, .402, 7207

Max Bishop (1924-1935) .271, .423, 5776

Eddie Stanky (1943-1953) .268, .410, 5435

Rickey Henderson (1979-2003) .279, .401, 13346

Jim Thome (1991-present) .277, .404, 9463

Jason Giambi (1995-present) .282, .405, 8135

Top ERA

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:33:00 +0000

Top ERA: 60+IP
2009: George Sherrill (Orioles/Dodgers) - 1.70 ERA (69 IP)
2008: Joe Nathan (Twins) - 1.33 (67.2 IP)
2007: J.J. Putz (Mariners) - 1.38 (71.2 IP)
2006: Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox) - 0.92 (68.1 IP)
2005: Mariano Rivera (Yankees) - 1.38 (78.1 IP)
2004: Armando Benitez (Marlins) - 1.29 (69.2 IP)
2003: John Smoltz (Braves) - 1.12 (64.1 IP)
2002: Chris Hammond (Braves) - 0.95 (76 IP)
2001: Felix Rodriguez (Giants) - 1.68 (80.1 IP)
2000: Robb Nen (Giants) - 1.50 (66 IP)

Top 25 Blogs

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 01:52:00 +0000

This is pretty interesting. Nicole Adams did a list of the top 25 blogs for baseball fans, with Baseball In-Depth coming in at #9:

9. Baseball In-Depth : Blogger Brad Templeman offers easily digested articles featuring straight facts and quick stats. Comprehensive lists occasionally undercut by brief blurbs undercut the majority of the content, making this something of a haven for baseball fans also harboring a love of numbers and detailed research guides.

OPB/Slugging

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 00:32:00 +0000

Higher OBP than Slugging (2009):
Chone Figgins (Angels)
Nick Johnson (Nationals/Marlins)
Luis Castillo (Mets)
Russell Martin (Dodgers)
Nick Punto (Twins)
Jason Kendell (Brewers)

Miguel Tejada

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:18:00 +0000

Miguel Tejada had a good season, leading the NL in doubles and hitting .313. It was unusual, though, because his OBP was only .340 because he only walked 13 times:

.310+ BA, .340- OPB, 600+ PA, since 1900:

Hy Myers: 1922 (Dodgers)

Vic Power: 1958 (A's/Indians)

Mickey Rivers: 1976 (Yankees)

Garry Templeton: 1977, 1979 (Cardinals)

Damaso Garcia: 1982 (Blue Jays)

Tony Fernandez: 1986 (Blue Jays)

Miguel Tejada: 2009 (Astros)

Andrew Bailey

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 18:02:00 +0000

Andrew Bailey was named AL Rookie of the Year last week, and it was well deserved. Since 2000, there have been 154 instances of a pitcher having a season with more than 80 IP and no starts.

Bailey's 2009 season is one of only 13 with an ERA under 2.00 and he places 7th on the list. There were only 6 pitchers to do that this season and he was in a class by himself.

ERA: 80+ IP, 0 Starts
1.84 - Andrew Bailey (A's)
2.72 - Ramon Troncoso (Dodgers)
2.90 - Todd Coffey (Phillies)
3.26 - Mark Lowe (Mariners)
3.40 - Jeff Fulchino (Astros)
4.90 - Brian Bass (Orioles)