Baseball In-Depth

BJ Upton

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 21:53:00 +0000

.245 BA or lower, 16+ HR, 35+ SB (since 1900)
1986 Barry Bonds
1993 Eric Davis
2010 BJ Upton
2011 BJ Upton

BJ Upton (Rays) has had an interesting career so far, and could still emerge as a dominant player. He is only 27 years old despite having 3430 career PA and 5 seasons as an everyday player. Since what appeared to be his breakout season in 2007, he has been very inconsistent:

2007: .894 OPS, 24 HR, 82 RBI, .300 BA, 22 SB
2008: .784, 9, 67, .273, 44
2009: .686, 11, 55, .241, 42
2010: .745, 18, 62, .237, 42
2011: .759, 23, 81, .243, 36

The only stat that hasn't rebounded is his BA, but at least he has continued to steal a lot of bases. A player on a good team that plays almost every day with his speed should be scoring at least 100 runs per year.

He has the ability to get on base (he has an OBP of .386 and .383 in 2007 and 2008), and he appears to be on the upswing on other facets of his offensive game. This could be the year he breaks out again, and it would be a good time because he hits free agency in 2013.

Offense - 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:50:00 +0000

30 HR, 100 RBI (# of players)
2000 - 39
2004 - 26
2006 - 27
2009 - 19
2010 - 15
2011 - 12

The last time it was under 12 (except for the strike shortened 1994 season) was 1992 (when it was only 8). If the trend continues, this could be a memorable year for how few players have big offensive seasons.

Players to Watch: 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 19:16:00 +0000

.900+ OPS, 75-150 PA (Post All Star Break, 2011)
1.114 Adrian Beltre (Rangers)
1.061 Nick Hundley (Padres)
1.035 Chris Parmelee (Twins)
1.028 Andruw Jones (Yankees)
.967 Ryan Raburn (Tigers)
.943 Yonder Alonso (Reds)
.931 Daniel Murphy (Mets)
.915 Shelly Duncan (Indians)
.908 Jerry Sands (Dodgers)
.901 Allen Craig (Cardinals)

There are several players on this list who are not very well known, but might be worth watching. Chris Parmelee, who was a 1st round draft pick in 2006, made his major league debut on September 6th. It's not clear how he fits into the 2012 season for the Twins with Justin Morneau coming back, but you can to figure he'll be back before too long after his great September.

Jerry Sands was a 25th round draft pick in 2008 and was hitting .205 for the year before rejoining the team in September and hitting .342. Sands might be on the Dodgers bench this year or he might start in the minors and get more at-bats.

Yonder Alonso was the 7th overall pick in 2008 and was traded to the Padres in December in the Mat Latos trade, likely making him the starting 1st baseman for the Padres next year.

Jack Morris

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 20:43:00 +0000

160+ Wins, .570+ W-L% (per decade, since 1940)
40's: Hal Newhouser
50's: Warren Spahn, Robin Roberts, Early Wynn
60's: Juan Marichal, Bob Gibson
70's: Jim Palmer, Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins, Tom Seaver, Catfish Hunter, Don Sutton
80's: Jack Morris
90's: Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux
00's: None

Does this mean that Jack Morris should be in the Hall of Fame? No, but it is interesting. A better illustration of how he compared to other pitchers from his era is that from 1979-1992, he had 233 wins with a .590 W-L%. The closest in wins during that time period was Bob Welch with 192 wins, followed by Dave Stieb with 174 wins.

Most wins, 14 year span
1956-1969: Don Drysdale 209 Wins
1960-1973: Juan Marichal, 238
1965-1978: Gaylord Perry 251, Fergie Jenkins 231
1974-1987: Steve Carlton, 212

This is obviously not an exhaustive list, but it shows that 233 compares well with some other time periods in recent times.

There are serious problems with Morris' Hall of Fame candidacy, although it seems to be finally picking up steam. His ERA was high (3.90), never finished higher than 3rd for a Cy Young award, didn't have dominant walk or strikeout numbers, etc., but winning 233 games over a 14 year period (with a .590 W-L%) is impressive and unusual in modern history.

Matt Cain

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 13:47:00 +0000

220+ IP, 9 or fewer HR allowed (since 1997)
1997 Roger Clemens (Blue Jays)
1997 Greg Maddux (Braves)
1997 Andy Pettitte (Yankees)
1998 Kevin Brown (Padres)
2011 Matt Cain (Giants)

Guest Post - Worst Long Term Contract (7+ years)

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 04:21:00 +0000

Worst Long-Term MLB Contracts (7+ years)

In 2000, pitcher Mike Hampton signed an 8 year $121 million deal with the Colorado Rockies. This was the largest contract in sports history at the time. Hampton threw a disappointing 14-13 with a 5.12 ERA in 2001, and the following season pitched a disastrous 7-15 with a 6.15 ERA. Hampton was traded to the Florida Marlins only two years into his contract and the Rockies ate millions of dollars in losses. The Marlins in return traded Hampton to the Atlanta Braves where he threw two average seasons before suffering a major elbow injury. Due to injuries, Hampton sat out nearly three seasons before making a return in 2008. He was soon injured again, however, and finished 3-4 with a 4.85 ERA.

A special mention goes to pitcher Denny Neagle who signed a 5 year $51 million contract with the Colorado Rockies alongside Mike Hampton in 2000. Neagle went 19-23 with a 6.61 ERA in three seasons before succumbing to injuries and missing the 2004 season. The Rockies were fortunate enough to void the last year of his contract under morality clauses after he was caught soliciting a prostitute for oral sex.

The only three certainties in life are death, taxes, and bad investments from the Chicago Cubs. But perhaps none is worse than the 8 year $136 million contract signed by Alfonso (“Albozo”) Soriano in 2007. This was the largest contract in Cubs history and contained a no-trade clause (meaning Soriano cannot be traded without his consent). Needless to say, his performance since 2007 has been mediocre at best. He led the Cubs with 130 strikeouts during his first season and digressed to a personal worst .241 batting average in 2009. Soriano is notorious for his lack of clutch hitting with runners in scoring position and unsuccessful hacks at sliders low and outside.

Jason Giambi signed a 7 year $120 million contract with the New York Yankees in 2001. By 2003, Giambi had led the league in strikeouts and had a .250 batting average. He finished 2004 with a .208 batting average and 12 home runs. While he experienced resurgence in 2005 and 2006, his numbers dropped significantly in 2007 after suffering a foot injury (.236 batting average, 39 RBI’s, 14 home runs). The Yankees declined to extend Giambi’s contract after expiration and was signed by the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics subsequently released him and he was picked up by the Colorado Rockies.

A special mention goes to Alex Rodriquez (“A-Rod”) who signed a 10 year $275 million contract with the New York Yankees. This contract was the most lucrative contract in sports history. It is highly debatable whether A-Rod’s contract is one of the worst in MLB history because he did put up good numbers for the most part. Rather, he was known particularly for sub-par postseason performances and inability to hit in “clutch” situations. He developed the nickname “The Cooler” for the tendency of teams to turn cold when he became part of the team. Teammates also used to call him “A-Fraud” for an apparent prissy and needy attitude.

This is a guest post written by Jeff Herbst. Jeff has had a passion for sports ever since he could first walk and enjoys writing in his spare time. He works with Phoenix Bats, a company that manufacturers wooden baseball bats and specialty custom wood bats for amateur and professional ball players.

Gio Gonzalez

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 25 Dec 2011 02:23:00 +0000

15+ Wins, 7.5+ SO/9, .570 W-L%, 3.25 ERA or less (LHP, Multiple seasons throuby age 26, since 1900)
1975-77 Frank Tanana
2010-11 Gio Gonzalez
1955-56 Herb Score
2004-05 Johan Santana

Gio Gonzalez, who was recently aquired by the Nationals from the A's, is clearly a talented young pitcher. This indicates that he's even more special than I had realized. The Nationals had to give up a lot to get him, but it will be worth it if he keeps producing like he has the last few years. If he had pitched the same on the Rangers or Yankees or Tigers, he might have won 20 games each year.

Which right handed pitchers have had multiple seasons like that before age 26? Roger Clemens, Jim Maloney, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Pedro Martinez, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Fergie Jenkins, Denny McLain. If Gonzalez performs like he's capable, the Nationals could be a scary team in 2012.

Why can't Cole Hamels win more than 15 games?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 21:02:00 +0000

31+ Starts, 15 wins or fewer, 3.10 ERA or lower, W-L% .580+ (2+ seasons, since 1900)
Bert Blyleven (1975, 78)
Jose Rijo (1992-93)
Tom Glavine (1996-97)
Kevin Brown (2000, 03)
Cole Hamels (2008, 11)

Cole Hamels is having an excellent career and is considered one of the best young pitchers in the game. He is one of only 3 pitchers under 30 (and 6 overall) who has an ERA under 3.40 and 180 career starts (the other pitchers under 30 are Felix Hernandez and Matt Cain; pitchers over 30 are Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Roy Oswalt). He has won a LCS and WS MVP and came in 5 in Cy Young voting this year.

The only problem is that he hasn't won over 15 games in a season despite having a low ERA almost every year and routinely starting over 30 games. He pitches for a team that has won 5 consecutive division titles.

What's the problem? One issue is that he doesn't get enough decisions. It's tough to win over 15 games when you are averaging about 23 decisions a year. In contrast, Roy Halladay has been averaging nearly 29 decisions a year.

In 2010, they both had 33 starts, but Halladay had over 40 more innings, and 8 more decisions (and 9 more wins). In 2010, Hamels had a solid 33 starts (only a handful of pitchers went over 33), but finished 30th in innings pitched. He did better in 2011, with 8 more innings despite 2 fewer starts.

If Hamels stays healthy, he appears ready to have his best season yet. Last year was his best year for ERA, WHIP, SO/BB, H/9 and BB/9, and 2012 should be his best for wins.

Darren Oliver

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 17:05:00 +0000

4+ SO/BB, 50+ IP, 7.5+ SO/9 (2010 & 2011)
J.J. Putz (Career: 3.2 SO/BB, 9.3 SO/9)
Roy Halladay (3.7, 6.9)
Rafael Betancourt (4.6, 9.6)
Cliff Lee (3.4, 7.3)
Darren Oliver (1.7, 5.8)

He wasn't able to close out Game 6, but what Darren Oliver has done over the last few years is remarkable. It makes you wonder what his career numbers would be if he had been in the bullpen his entire career (his ERA this year was 2.29, his career ERA is 4.60). Oliver is a free agent and apparently wants to return for at least another year. He shouldn't have too much trouble finding a team considering he has been one of the best left-handed middle relievers over the past few years.

How great were Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp in 2011?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 17:20:00 +0000

.324 BA, 33 HR, 33 SB, 111 RBI, 109 R (since 1900)
1922 Ken Williams (Browns)
1997 Larry Walker (Rockies)
2011 Ryan Braun (Brewers)
2011 Matt Kemp (Dodgers)

Did Matt Kemp deserve to win the MVP? Maybe. Probably. But, we all know that when the numbers are close enough the guy on the playoff team always wins. The AL may as well enshrine it in writing, having only given one (!) MVP award to a player who didn't go to the playoffs (in a non-strike year) since Cal Ripken in 1991 (A-Rod in 2003). If Kemp keeps playing this way, it could play to his advantage in the future, although that's not much of a consolation right now.

Regardless, they both had incredible seasons that stack up very well if measured historically. Kemp bested Braun in most of the stats measured by sheer volume (playing in 11 more games than Braun helped) and Braun edged Kemp with some percentages (BA, OPS, SLG).

As shown above, the only 2 players in history that could equal the worst numbers either Braun or Kemp had in these 5 categories (Braun's output except for BA) were Larry Walker and Ken Williams. To be fair to Walker, he was great on the road in 1997 (.346, 29 HR, 62 RBI), but it didn't hurt that he was playing at Coors where he hit .384 (he hit a staggering .381 at Coors for his career, covering nearly 600 games).

Ken Williams was the first 30/30 players, and the only 30/30 player until Willie Mays in 1956. He was a fine player (.319 career), but it was the only time he had 30 HR or 30 SB. It was such a great year, he received except 0 votes for MVP , despite leading the league in HR and RBI.

This probably won't be the last time that the NL MVP will come down to Braun and Kemp, although it's hard to imagine both of them having this type of season again in the same year again.

Top Relievers through 27

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 19:33:00 +0000

2.15 ERA or lower, 150+ Games in Relief, through age 27 (since 1900)
1963-68 Frank Linzy (Giants) 2.15 ERA, 230 G
2005-08 Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox): 1.84, 202
2009-11 Andrew Bailey (A's) 2.07, 157
2010-11 Jonny Venters (Braves) 1.89, 164

Guest Post - The UK League Needs US Help

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 17:26:00 +0000

The UK League Needs US Help

Although the Brits claim to have invented baseball, they are still in need of further US assistance if they’re to bring the leagues up to US standards. With just 35 clubs and 51 league teams in a population of 65 million people, few towns have a representative team.

Jane Austen and Baseball

Jane Austen mentions baseball in her novel Northanger Abbey, written around 1798-99, some 43 years after the English first started playing the sport. The game came back to England – Derby to be precise – in 1890, after Francis Ley discovered the game in the US. This led to the first baseball club in the town and although survived for just eight years, the stadium was called the Baseball Ground which became home of the local soccer (football in the UK) team, Derby County FC who remained there until 1997.

Local pressure, which didn’t agree with the number of Americans in the Derby team, forced them out of the first league after just one season. Now teams are calling out for more American experience to bring the quality of the games and therefore the numbers of spectators up to acceptable levels.

The peak of interest in baseball in the UK was in the years just before the Second World War. Professional standards were attained and as many as 10,000 people attended matches. The year before the war the Brits managed to beat the US to win the first World Cup of baseball – so what happened after that? Well, the British are still playing baseball, but not to US standard.

The British Baseball Federation

The British Baseball Federation (BBF) governs the game in the UK. All teams have to be members of the BBF to be able to compete in the national league and the three AAA, AA and A tier leagues below. A full program of young and junior leagues hopes to bring players to the forefront in years to come.

The national league consists of just ten teams. The AAA league has 4 teams in the north and 6 in the south. The AA is set into three zones; 5 north, 5 midlands and 13 south. The A league has all 8 teams in the south.

The national league, AAA and AA compete in a four team finals tournament at the end of the season. The top 2 from the Southern Conference and the top two from the Northern Conference play knock out matches with the tournament winner going through to the Championship series. The championship series of the National league is a best of 3, while the AAA and AA matches are just single games.

The Dominant Teams

Four teams have dominated over recent years. The Richmond Flamers, London Mets, Croydon Pirates and Bracknell Blazers give the league a very southern, almost London only feeling. If the game is going to expand you will need to see teams from major towns competing in the highest leagues.

Another International Team Due For 2012

The British national baseball team is currently ranked 23rd in the world. Players consist almost entirely of British born players who have lived most of their lives in either Canada or the US, with two South African born members. There are 40 teams on the list so there are plenty below, although it must be galling for the British team to see many smaller nations ahead of them in the rankings.

The national team set up will be expanded in 2012 with the introduction of an under 23 team. This will hopefully allow players to play in international matches helping the individuals’ progress through to the full national team.

The national junior team is at a major dilemma stage. Six of the team will reach the maximum age of 18 this coming year and won’t be able to play for the team any more. This means they won’t be able to play internationally unless they achieve selection to the senior national team. With the introduction of the under 23 team, more players will continue to compete internationally with a more gradual feed through to the senior squad. It’s the senior team that battles with local games in the European Championship and internationally in the World Baseball classic.

If British baseball is to expand, more Americans and Canadians currently living in the UK need to get involved in the game at all levels. Only then will the experience of the few help the many who need to learn from experienced players, for the long term stability of the game.

-----

Izzy Woods is a travel writer and sports fan. Since moving to London, she has written on behalf of numerous clients (including a cruise deals company) in between keeping up on Britain's progress in lesser-played, American sports.

Guest Post - Red Sox Three Biggest Organizational Needs for 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 16:28:00 +0000

This is a guest post from Brett Pharis. Hope you enjoy!

Red Sox Three Biggest Organizational Needs for 2012

Throughout the last couple months, the struggles in, and outside, the Red Sox clubhouse have been widely publicized. Blowing an incredible lead in the AL wildcard race, bullpen chicken & beer, and the loss of the organization’s heralded Manager and GM, to name the most blatantly obvious issues. Clearly, the Sox will need to make some changes in 2012 to return successful and give the loyal fan-base something to cheer about again. Specifically, the Red Sox will need to address these three needs in the off-season, in order of importance:

Finding a New Manager

Whether you agree or not with the recent decision to fire Terry Francona, the fact is the Sox desperately need to fill the open position. There have been a number of big names swirling around the rumor mill, and a number of interesting lesser-known names as well. Here are my top 5 picks for the open position; I’ve listed each with 1-5 stars representing the respective coach’s fit within the clubhouse:

1. John Farrell – Manager, Toronto Blue Jays (3 stars)

Farrell seems like a natural choice for the Red Sox, as he was the former pitching coaching and has an extremely stern coaching style. That sort of gruffness is exactly what the organization needs right now. Hey led the Blue Jays to an 81-81 season in 2011 in the very competitive AL East.

It seems, however, that Farrell is not a realistic choice any longer because of the recent amendment the Blue Jays organization has made to its employees’ contracts, restricting lateral moves within MLB. This is a shame because he clearly would have been a great fit for the Sox.

2. Dale Sveum – Former interim Coach (2008), Hitting Coach, Milwaukee Brewers (3 stars)

Sveum has come up in a number of recent press conferences held by current GM, Ben Cherington.

Cherington is clearly thinking outside the batter’s box on this one. Sveum has head coaching experience at the minor league level, with a fairly decent record, 213-211. Additionally, he’s been inside the Boston organization as the third base coach from 2004-2005, under former teammate Terry Francona’s management. His interim stint was extremely short – a mere 12 games – but he did go 7-5 with a team that was destined to sit out of the playoffs that season.

3. Mike Maddux – Pitching Coach, Texas Rangers (4 stars)

Another potential candidate mentioned by Cherington, Maddux has the insight and skills necessary to dial a pitching rotation in, and keep order in the clubhouse. With a deep understanding of AL game-play, it seems Maddux could be a legitimate front-liner in Cherington’s search. Maddux pitched for the Red Sox late in his career and is familiar with the pressure and commitment that come with managing in a large sports town like Boston.

4. DeMarlo Hale – Bench Coach, Boston Red Sox (3 stars)

Hale hasn’t been brought up much in these discussions, but his understanding of the current clubhouse chemistry and his ability to deal with the big-name talent that Boston has been able to retain during the past decade. He has significant head coaching experience within the Red Sox farm system and I see him as a legitimate candidate in this competitive race.

5. Dave Martinez – Bench Coach, Tampa Bay Rays (2 stars)

Currently Joe Madden’s most important assistant coach, Martinez has been integral in the success of

Tamp Bay organization over the past few years. He clearly has an understanding of the competition within the AL East, but has no head managing experience, and little input when it comes to pitching strategy and forming rotations (obviously both huge disadvantages for him getting a chance at this position)

Building a Pitching Rotation – Starters Needed!

The bullpen became the Achilles heel for the Sox late in the 2011 season. With the injury and impending surgery for John Lackey, it will be extremely important for Boston to replenish the bullpen, specifically the starting rotation. While there are a number of potential players the Red Sox will most assuredly look into, these 3 seem to be the best immediate free agent options:

1. Aaron Harang – San Diego Padres

Harang had a 14-7 season in 2011. He’s got a solid quiver of pitches that helped him throw 124 strike outs this season. With 28 starts and a season ERA of 3.64, Harang would add much needed consistency to a bull pen that has struggled recently. Harang does have a mutual option at $5 million for the 2012 season so the Sox would need to put more than that on the table to attract him to New England.

2. C.J. Wilson – Texas Rangers

This seems like a no-brainer – an AL pitcher with legit numbers, a consistent performer, and has legitimate 35-start potential. C.J. was an All-Star this year, went 16-7, and threw 200+ innings. In 2010, Wilson had 15 wins with another 200 inning year. The only downside has been his recent performance in the post-season, currently 1-5. However, he’s come through in some big games of late and Texas will definitely be looking to hold on to Wilson for 2012. His 2011 salary was $7,050,000 so this deal could thin the pocketbook. Note: If the Rangers win the World Series, consider this deal impossible.

3. Edwin Jackson – St. Louis Cardinals

Jackson had a decent season considering his late move to St. Louis. He finished 12-9 with 148 strikeouts. His aggressive style of pitching would work really well in the hitters-league. Jackson was an All-Star in 2009 and threw a no-hitter in 2010. His 2011 salary was $8,350,000 which is the most expensive opportunity in my list at the moment, although I would imagine Wilson’s salary potential will be increased dramatically if the Rangers win. Bottom-line: Wilson and Jackson will be more expensive to persuade in 2012. Will the Red Sox decide to lure either?

The final piece that the organization desperately needs to address is leadership. Leadership may come from hiring the new manager, but could come from retaining veterans like David Ortiz, or picking up a free agent or two to help drive focus on the bench or in the bullpen. There’s been talk about being more aggressive with conditioning and training which could clearly help endurance during the long season, but may also help establish more discipline in the clubhouse. I’m confident the storied organization will find a way to improve and move beyond a disappointing 2011 season. A good first step might be cutting out the chicken, beer, and Xbox!

Brett is a writer for CableTV.com. He typically writes about Sports and Entertainment. You can follow him on Twitter, @TeachFromSLC.

Walks in 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 04:46:00 +0000

Average Walks Issued by Team
2011 - 501
2010 - 526
2009 - 554
2008 - 545
2007 - 536
2006 - 528
2005 - 507
2004 - 541
2003 - 530
2002 - 542
2001 - 527
2000 - 608

The number of players with 100+ walks in 2011 (5) was much lower than just a few years ago (11 in 2007). That number is more similar to the 80's and early 90's than the late 90's or early 00's. It makes sense, because pitchers are probably more likely to go after hitters now than in the steroid era. Walks did go down in 2005 only to bounce back, so it's not a given than it will go under 500 per team in 2012, but it is a possibility.

Team Offense: 2010 vs. 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 00:36:00 +0000

Team Runs, Change in Rank (2010 to 2011)
+13 Orioles (#27, 14)
+12 Mets (24, 12)
+10 Indians (26, 16)
+10 Royals (20, 10)
+9 Cardinals (14, 5)
+7 Tigers (11, 4)
+7 D-Backs (16, 9)
+3 Blue Jays (9, 6)
+3 A's (23, 20)
+2 Rangers (5, 3)
+2 Astros (28, 26)
+2 Angels (19, 17)
+2 Pirates (29, 27)
+1 Red Sox (2, 1)
+1 Brewers (12, 11)
+1 Nationals (25, 24)
0 Dodgers (21, 21)
0 Rockies (8, 8)
0 Mariners (30, 30)
-1 Cubs (18, 19)
-1 Yankees (1, 2)
-3 Reds (4, 7)
-6 Phillies (7, 13)
-6 Padres (22, 28)
-8 Marlins (15, 23)
-8 White Sox (10, 18)
-9 Braves (13, 22)
-12 Rays (3, 15)
-12 Giants (17, 29)
-19 Twins (6, 25)

This is interesting, but needs to be viewed cautiously. Some teams will be hit harder by free agent losses than others. For instance, the Mets could lose Jose Reyes, which would have a huge effect on their offense going into next season. The same obviously goes for teams like the Brewers and Cardinals too, with Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols testing the market.

Some teams could bounce back quickly if their key players stay healthy, like the Twins. It's one part of the equation, but the teams that fell the furthest will be looking for offense.

Game 5

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 01:35:00 +0000

Lost Game 5 at home, fell behind 3-2

World Series, Best of 7 format
1997 Indians (Lost in 7)
1980 Royals (Lost in 6)
1953 Dodgers (Lost in 6)
1952 Yankees (Won in 7)
1951 Giants (Lost in 6)
1944 Browns (Lost in 6)
1934 Cardinals (Won in 7)
1931 A's (Lost in 7)
1930 Cardinals (Lost in 6)
1926 Cardinals (Won in 7)
1906 Cubs (Lost in 6)

LCS
1998 Indians (Lost in 6)
1993 Braves (Lost in 6)
1991 Braves (Won in 7)

It's pretty much all or nothing when losing 5 at home in a tie series, and usually nothing. It's probably better to fall behind 3-1, then win Game 5 to create momentum going back on the road (2003 Marlins, 1985 Royals). It's not a surprise that history would show the importance of not going back on the road down 3-2, but it is a little surprising how rare it's been lately. If the Rangers do lose Game 5 and win the final 2 in St. Louis, it would be truly history.

Yikes! Game 1 Road Losses

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 23:52:00 +0000

Road Team Loses Game 1 since 1982 (1-15)

Won World Series
1992 Blue Jays

Lost World Series
1987 Cardinals
1988 A's
1989 Giants
1990 A's
1991 Braves
1993 Phillies
1995 Indians
1997 Indians
1998 Padres
2000 Mets
2001 Yankees
2004 Cardinals
2005 Astros
2007 Rockies
2010 Rangers

Update: The Rangers might just pull this off, after a thrilling Game 2 victory where they came from behind in the 9th innings to win (first time that's happened since Game 7 of the 2001 World Series). At the very least, it appears that this World Series has a good shot at going at least 6 (and hopefully 7) games.

How many of the teams that lost game 1 came back to win Game 2?
1993 Phillies
1997 Marlins

Rangers/Cardinals, Home and Road

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 01:06:00 +0000

Team OPS - Regular Season (2011)

Cardinals
Home: .745 (#10)
Away: .785 (#1)

Rangers
Home: .860 (#1)
Away: .740 (#7)

The Rangers are an exceptional offensive team at home, but that advantage could be blunted because they will be facing the best road hitting team in baseball. The Cardinals demonstrated that in scoring 30 runs in 3 games in Milwaukee, against another team that had been great at home all year. There could be some high scoring games in Texas if the starting pitching doesn't improve dramatically (it is 0-0 through 3 innings, so maybe it will be).

Guest Post

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 01:15:00 +0000

World Series Baseball Betting Odds

The best time of the baseball season is here with the Texas Rangers playing the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series. Baseball betting odds favor the Rangers in the 7-game series which features a 2-3-2 format. Since the National League won the All-Star game, it is the Cardinals who have home field advantage but the oddsmakers are still favoring the Rangers in the series.

Cardinals Favored in Game 1

Even though the Rangers are favored to win the series, the Cardinals are favored in Game 1. St. Louis sends Chris Carpenter to the mound while the Rangers counter with C.J. Wilson. You rarely see a series where one team is favored yet they are underdogs in the first game.

MVPs

This year’s World Series doesn’t have the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox but that doesn’t mean it won’t have star power. The Cardinals have former MVP Albert Pujols while the Rangers have former MVP Josh Hamilton.

Series Notes

This is a really an intriguing series for a number of reasons. Did you know that the Cardinals and Rangers very rarely play each other? They have met just three times in history and that was back in 2004. The Cardinals have a rich baseball history and a strong following while the Rangers are in the World Series for the second straight season.

Matchups

The Rangers are the better hitting team and they might also be the team that has stronger pitching. The Rangers were 3rd best in runs scored per game but the Cardinals were not that far behind at 5th. The Cardinals were 12th in the league in team ERA while the Rangers were 13th. You have to adjust those numbers somewhat though as Texas had a better bullpen in the second half of the season after acquiring super set-up man Mike Adams.

Over the Total

With these two offenses you can probably expect games to go over the odds on a regular basis. The Rangers starters, C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison have a combined 5.62 ERA in 10 postseason games. The Cardinals are not much better at an ERA of 5.43 so runs should be plentiful. The total on Game 1 is low at 7.5 with both teams starting their aces but neither Wilson nor Carpenter has been that good so Game 1 could still end up going over the total.

Missing: Game 7

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 05:02:00 +0000

It's been a long time since the World Series went 7 games (2002). The last Game 7 was 9 years ago, and too many of the World Series since then have been forgettable. Sure, there have been some memorable individual moments, but there has been something missing without a Game 7. This is very unusual from a historical perspective:

7 Game Series
2001, 2002, 2011?
1991, 1997
1982, 1985, 1986, 1987
1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1979
1960, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1967, 1968
1952, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958
1940, 1945, 1946, 1947
1931, 1934
1924, 1925, 1926

The current 8 year drought is by far the longest stretch without a Game 7 since the World Series reverted back to the best of 7 format in 1922. The longest previous drought was 5 years, from 1935-1939 (the final four were all Yankee wins). This may be wishful thinking, but this seems like one that has a good shot at going 7.

I'm not sure who the experts will be picking as the favorite, but the Rangers and Cardinals seem pretty evenly balanced right now. They both have mediocre (at least by World Series standards) starting pitching, but quality bullpens. Even if the Rangers do have the edge, the fact that the NL has finally been winning the All Star Game helps to negate that a bit by giving the Cardinals home field advantage.

Milwaukee Brewers - Team OPS, Home vs. Away

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 16 Oct 2011 16:02:00 +0000

2011 Milwaukee Brewers

Team OPS

Regular Season
Home: .805 (5th of 30)
Away: .698 (16th)

Postseason
Home: .847 (2nd of 8)
Away: .648 (7th)

The Brewers are probably going to need a decent number of runs because their starter (Shaun Marcum) has an ERA over 10.00 over his last three starts going back to his last start of the regular season. They haven't had a huge offensive explosion at home yet, but they might be due for one just like the Rangers were last night.

What should the Tigers do about Nelson Cruz?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 20:25:00 +0000

Through 5 games, Nelson Cruz is carrying the Rangers to a remarkable extent.

HR, RBI - Texas Rangers
Nelson Cruz - 5, 11
Rest of Team - 0, 13

Nelson Cruz is a very good hitter, but he's not this good. He's also only been walked one time in the entire series. That makes sense because he's not an especially patient hitter. He only walked 33 times in 513 PA while striking out 116 times.

The Tigers would probably do better to pitch around Cruz or treat him like Barry Bonds circa-2004 than pitching to him like they have been so far in the series. The Rangers have plenty of excellent hitters (Hamilton, Beltre, Young, Napoli), but they've been relatively quiet in the series. Cruz is in a zone, and he's probably too dangerous to pitch to right now.

ALCS - Game 3

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 11:35:00 +0000

Colby Lewis vs. Detroit (2011)
6/6 - L (home): 3.1 IP, 10 H, 9 ER, 4 HR, 3 SO, 1 BB
8/2 - ND (road): 4.0 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 HR, 3 SO, 3BB

Lewis is lucky because one of the players he had the most trouble with was Brennan Boesch (2 HR on 6/6), and he's on the disabled list. Lewis pitched better on the road this year (9-5, 3.43 ERA vs. 5-5, 5.54), and he was good in the ALDS against the Rays (6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER).

Doug Fister, who was great down the stretch (5-0, 0.53 ERA in September) was good against the Rangers this year (1-1, 3.68).

This could end up being another close game between these two teams, but those numbers (20 H in 7.1 IP) must be worrying the Rangers and give the Tigers their best shot to get back in the series.

Sunday's Starters

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 02 Oct 2011 04:02:00 +0000

Sunday's Starters, Post All Star Break + (Postseason)
Chris Carpenter (Cardinals) 7-2, 2.98 ERA (5-2, 2.93)
Cliff Lee (Phillies) 8-2, 1.79 (7-2, 2.13)

Daniel Hudson (D-Backs) 7-7, 3.15 (1st time in playoffs)
Zack Greinke (Brewers) 9-3, 2.59 (1st time in playoffs)

Max Scherzer (Tigers) 5-5, 4.09 (1st time in playoffs)
Freddy Garcia (Yankees) 5-2, 4.45 (6-2, 3.11)

It's an interesting mix of playoff newcomers and veterans. It will be a big test for Cliff Lee, who was being hailed as invincible in the postseason last year until the World Series, where he went 0-2 with a 7.23 ERA (after going 3-0 with a .75 ERA in the NLDS and NLCS, and 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in 2009).

Chris Carpenter has had one bad start in the postseason since his shutting down the Tigers over 8 innings in Game 3 of the 2006 World Series). Freddy Garcia last pitched in the postseason way back in the 2005 World Series for the White Sox.

Yankees in the ALDS

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 04:06:00 +0000

Yankees vs. Twins (4-0)
2003 Defeated Twins (3-1)
2004 Defeated Twins (3-1)
2009 Defeated Twins (3-0)
2010 Defeated Twins (3-0)

Yankees vs. Teams other than the Twins (0-4)
2002 Lost to Angels (3-1)
2005 Lost to Angels (3-2)
2006 Lost to Tigers (3-1)
2007 Lost to Indians (3-1)

Does this mean anything? This encompasses two different managers over a long period of time. Joe Girardi has not lost in the first round, and Joe Torre only started in in his last few seasons with the Yankees. Maybe they would have lost to the Twins if they played them in 2005-2007, or maybe not.

This probably won't be weighing on the Yankees like the Curse of the Billy Goat might on the Cubs, but they are surely aware that the Yankees haven't beaten anyone in the first round other than the Twins since 2001. The 2001 team that beat the A's had Paul O'Neill, Bernie Williams, Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius, and was the last hurrah of the dynasty that had won the previous three World Series.

This team is obviously very talented and dangerous, but they are relying to some extent on pitchers that have seen better days (Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, A.J. Burnett). Will they be able to hit Verlander, Fister and Scherzer? They might, although they've been shut down before (they scored only 13 runs over the final 5 games of the 2010 ALCS against the Rangers, with 7 coming in one game).

The Tigers are likely to be a good matchup for the Yankees, who will try to win an ALDS against someone other than the Twins for the first time in 10 years.