Baseball In-Depth

Most H, R since beginning of 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 27 May 2012 13:32:00 +0000

Top 10 in H and R, since the beginning of the 2011 season
Melky Cabrera: #1 H, #6 R
Miguel Cabrera: #6 H, #7 R
Dustin Pedroia: #7 H, #10 R
Robinson Cano: #8 H, #8 R
Ryan Braun: #9 H, #4 R

In this group, we have the 2011 NL MVP (Braun), and the players who came in #5 (Cabrera), #6 Cano and #9 in the 2011 AL MVP vote. Beyond that, Cabrera and Cano came in the top 3 in the 2010 MVP vote and Pedroia has an MVP trophy from 2008.

This is clearly an elite category with only top offensive players, except that Melky Cabrera has never received an MVP vote (although he would if the season ended today, being #1 in H, #3 in R and #3 in BA in the NL). He is HR pace is down from last year, but that is not a big surprise playing in San Francisco. He is going to be a free agent after this season, and it seems unlikely that he'll sign with the Giants during the season.

Yovani Gallardo

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 22 May 2012 01:35:00 +0000

100+ Starts, 9.20+ K/9, .590 W-L%, SO/BB 2.50 (by age 26, since 1900)
Pedro Martinez
Tim Lincecum
Johan Santana
Clayton Kershaw
Yovani Gallardo
Mark Prior

Gallardo, who turned 26 earlier this year, has struggled a bit this year, especially in April (2-3, 6.08 ERA in April, 1-3 3.00 ERA in May). He hasn't had a true breakout season yet (3.52 ERA is his lowest in a full season), but he is already piling up some impressive numbers and should have 1000 career strikeouts early next season.

It takes some pitchers a little bit longer to figure it all out (Justin Verlander had never finished a season with an ERA below 3.37 until last year despite some very impressive seasons), and Gallardo is a prime candidate to break out and win a Cy Young one of these years.

Team OPS, April vs. May

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 17 May 2012 12:18:00 +0000

Team OPS (April v. May)
1. Rangers (#2 in May)
2. Yankees (#8)
3. Boston (#7)
4. Cardinals (#1)
5. Rays (#17)

26. Cubs (#11)
27. Nationals (#3)
28. Padres (#25)
29. Pirates (#29)
30. A's (#21)

The Nationals have only gone from 27th in runs (April) to 16th (May) despite their improvement in OPS. They've needed those extra runs to keep up (9-6 in May) because their pitching has done downhill this month, sliding from #1 in team ERA in April to 13th in May.

One of the main reasons for the team OPS improving so much is that Roger Bernadina has an OPS of .995 in May (31 AB), up from .509 in April (42 AB). Rookie phenom Bryce Harper was called up on April 28th, and has struggled a bit (.222 BA, .726 OPS), although he has 2 HR in the last 3 games. It's possible his presence has provided a jolt to the rest of the lineup, even if he hasn't taken off himself yet.

Guest Post: The Best Fifth Starters in MLB

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Wed, 09 May 2012 11:25:00 +0000

When teams in Major League Baseball began employing the use of a fifth starter in the 1970s, it signified a major change in pitching philosophy. Bullpen specialists were also becoming popular, and no longer were the days when starting pitchers were required to work 300-plus innings each season.

As such, the role of the fifth starter became very important for each team. With travel days, oftentimes the fifth starter may miss turns in the rotation in order for their rotation mates to continue with their routines of pitching every fifth day. Here are the current fifth starters considered the best in baseball today.

5. Anibal Sanchez: Miami Marlins

Normally, Miami Marlins starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez would be the No. 3 pitcher in the rotation. However, with the offseason acquisitions of Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano, Sanchez slides into the final spot in the rotation.

Considering his body of work, Sanchez is certainly no slouch in that role, posting a 3.61 ERA in the past two seasons and registering over 200 strikeouts last season for the first time in his career.

4. Dillon Gee: New York Mets

In 2011, despite what was otherwise a gloomy season at Citi Field, New York Mets starting pitcher Dillon Gee was one of the lone bright spots, posting a 13-6 record and 4.45 ERA in his first full season.

Gee won’t blow anyone away with a blazing fastball, however, he has an excellent array of secondary pitches and has shown the ability to work out of jams. Considering the Mets’ current financial woes and declining attendance figures, Gee is a steal in the rotation at just $500K.

3. Neftali Feliz: Texas Rangers

Over the past three seasons, the Texas Rangers have mastered the art of turning relievers into starters, with C.J. Wilson successfully transitioning in 2010 and Alexi Ogando last year.

Now, the Rangers are pulling off that same trick for the third straight season, with former closer and 2010 Rookie of the Year Award winner Neftali Feliz making the transition to the rotation.

With Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and Yu Darvish in place at the top of the rotation, Feliz will be given all the time he needs to make the successful transition. Judging from his start thus far (2.25 ERA, 1-0 in first two starts), the Rangers may have pulled off the trifecta.

2. Jeff Niemann: Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays are absolutely loaded with great homegrown starting pitching, and this past spring training the Rays had a unique problem that most teams would love to have.

With youngster Matt Moore entrenched as the fourth starter, the battle for the final spot in the rotation came down to Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis, both of whom pitched well in starting roles in 2011. Niemann won the battle, and gives the Rays an outstanding core of starting pitching that rivals any in the majors.

1. Ryan Vogelsong: San Francisco Giants

Last season, San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong came out of nowhere to post a 13-7 record and 2.71 ERA, a remarkable feat considering he hadn’t posted a win in the majors since 2005.

Vogelsong at times last season was the best pitcher on a staff loaded with talent and was rewarded with an All-Star selection for his efforts. This season, Vogelsong is on the back end of a rotation that features two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and a rejuvenated Barry Zito. Not too shabby at all.

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This is a guest post submitted by Mike Wright. Mike played all kinds of sports growing up and adamantly follows everything sports. He works with Phoenix Bats, a company that creates world-class wood bats, such as their premier custom wood bats, for amateur and professional ball players around the world. Mike loves writing on different sports topics and is honored to contribute here.

What should we make of the 2012 Orioles?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Mon, 07 May 2012 01:29:00 +0000

Orioles first 28 games, since 1997
1997: 19-9 (98-64)
1998: 15-13 (79-83)
1999: 11-17 (78-84)
2000: 15-13 (74-88)
2001: 13-15 (63-98)
2002: 13-15 (67-95)
2003: 15-13 (71-91)
2004: 16-12 (78-84)
2005: 19-9 (74-88)
2006: 14-14 (70-92)
2007: 12-16 (69-93)
2008: 16-12 (68-93)
2009: 11-17 (64-98)
2010: 7-21 (66-96)
2011: 13-15 (69-93)
2012: 19-9

The Orioles currently (and shockingly) have the best record in baseball after 28 games, with a 19-9 record (the Nats could tie them with a win tonight). Since their last winning season in 1997, they have generally overperformed over the first 28 games, although they usually weren't exactly setting the world on fire.

The one notable exception was 2005, when they jumped out to a great start and were leading the division by 4 games on June 11 before beginning their decline. The 2005 collapse is undoubtedly on the minds of people connected with the Orioles, but this is a different type of team. In 2005, they were 16-7 in April despite being ranked #23 in ERA.

They overcame their awful pitching by scoring the most runs of any team. They had some talented hitters (Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora, Javy Lopez), but that wasn't sustainable. Sure enough, their offense dropped off in May and they ended up 15th in runs scored at the end of the season.

This year, they are 2nd in ERA and 10th in runs scored. It is a more balanced attack, but the main concern has to be that their excellent pitching isn't sustainable (they were 27th in bullpen ERA last year, and 1st this year).

Can they sustain this (or stay somewhat close)? The bullpen seems solid, anchored by Jim Johnson, who has been lights out. They probably won't be the best, but it should remain a big improvement over previous years. The starting rotation won't scare anyone, and it remains to be seen if Jason Hammel can continue his torrid start.

Even if the Orioles don't make the playoffs, it's possible that they're like the 2001 Twins, who came out of nowhere with a bunch of young players but struggled to compete against the mighty Indians and trailed off as the season went along. They came back and won the division the next 3 years and remained a contender for years after.

They could also be the 2005 Orioles, but it doesn't feel that way, especially after seeing them win a 17 inning game at Fenway that they almost certainly would have lost at any other point since 1997.

Guest Post: 5 MLB Pitchers with Best Secondary Pitches

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 03 May 2012 02:56:00 +0000

5 MLB Pitchers with Best Secondary Pitches

Major League Baseball has long been enamored with starting pitchers who possess the blazing fastball—the high-90s four-seamer that induces countless swings and misses, and the two-seamer with late break that beguiles hitters in mid-swing.

However, not only is the fastball a prized possession, but a vast array of secondary pitches that are equally unhittable are hot commodities as well.

Here are five current MLB pitchers who have in their arsenal an array of secondary pitches that have become legendary.

1. Cliff Lee: Philadelphia Phillies

Since 2008, Cliff Lee has become one of the most dominant left-handed pitchers in baseball, and it’s not because of his fastball.

Lee, the 2008 AL Cy Young Award Winner, has been downright nasty, and it’s his cutter and signature curveball that give hitters fits more than anything else. Lee struck out a career-high 238 batters in 2011, and while many would naturally assume his fastball did the talking, for Lee, it’s his great assortment of secondary pitches that did the trick.

2. Cole Hamels: Philadelphia Phillies

Cole Hamels is another Philadelphia Phillies left-hander who doesn’t rely on his fastball to get hitters out. Rather, it’s his changeup that many consider the best in baseball.

Hamels threw his changeup for strikes 72.0 percent of the time in 2011 and led the league in swinging strike percentage for that pitch (27.1 percent) as well. For Hamels, it’s not just a devastating pitch, it’s his go-to pitch.

3. Jered Weaver: Los Angeles Angels

For Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Jered Weaver, the fastball is used to set up what many consider to be the best changeup of any right-handed pitcher in baseball.

Weaver’s heater only averages just above 89 MPH, yet he consistently strikes out close to 200 batters each year. Weaver’s changeup and curveball are stellar secondary pitches, and he uses them with regularity and great precision.

4. Jamie Moyer: Colorado Rockies

There is a very good reason that Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jamie Moyer has lasted for 24-plus seasons in Major League Baseball, and why he became the oldest man in baseball history to win a game.

At 49 years of age, Moyer won’t even touch 80 MPH on the radar gun with his fastball anymore. However, he uses an array of secondary pitches, including a drop-off-the-shelf cutter, straight change and terrific curveball to continue keeping hitters off balance. After 268 victories, Moyer has proven that pure heat isn’t the reason for his longevity.

5. Roy Halladay: Philadelphia Phillies

There is a very good reason why the Philadelphia Phillies have what many consider to be the top rotation in baseball—their top three starting pitchers, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay, all have some of the best secondary pitches in baseball.

In Halladay’s case, it’s his devastating curveball that constantly beguiles hitters. He threw his signature curveball for a strike 68.7 percent of the time in 2011, with a swing-and-miss percentage of 18.27 percentage that was tops among all starters in baseball. Halladay also features a cut fastball that rides in on right-handed hitters, preventing them from getting a full extension on their swing.

Statistical source: Fangraphs.com

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This is a guest post submitted by Mike Wright. Mike played all kinds of sports growing up and adamantly follows everything sports. He works with Phoenix Bats, a company that creates world-class wood baseball bats, such as their premier custom wood bats, for amateur and professional ball players around the world. Mike loves writing on different sports topics and is honored to contribute here.

Matt Kemp's Ridiculous April

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 05:44:00 +0000

Top OPS - April (min. 50 PA)
2012: Matt Kemp (Dodgers) 1.383
2011: Jose Bautista (Blue Jays) 1.312
2010: Robinson Cano (Yankees) 1.201
2009: Jorge Cantu (Marlins) 1.222
2008: Chipper Jones (Braves) 1.171
2007: Barry Bonds (Giants) 1.349
2006: Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1.423
2005: Derrek Lee (Cubs) 1.258
2004: Barry Bonds (Giants) 1.828
2003: Jim Edmonds (Cardinals) 1.268
2002: Barry Bonds (Giants) 1.428
2001: Larry Walker (Rockies) 1.298
2000: Mark McGwire (Cardinals) 1.346

The month isn't over yet (the Dodgers have 1 game left), but Matt Kemp is making his mark (although his OPS did plummet after an 0-3 yesterday). He is still well ahead of Josh Hamilton in 2nd place (1.173), which is an unusually high differential (except for Bonds in 2002 and 2004).

He is performing at such a high level that you can't completely dismiss talking about him hitting .400 or winning the Triple Crown (he wasn't that far off last year) or going 50/50 (although he only has 2 SB after 40 last year).

Best Bullpens - 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 04:01:00 +0000

1. Rangers (#26 in bullpen ERA in 2011)
1. Orioles (#27)
2. Yankees (#4)
3. A's (#18)
4. Pirates (#20)

This is bad news for every team in the AL except the Rangers, because their bullpen was their biggest weakness last year (when they still came within a strike of winning the World Series).

The Orioles (who have ranked near the bottom in bullpen ERA for the last decade) have almost completely revamped their bullpen and it is working so far. They've had a nice run lately, winning 4 in a row (allowing only 5 runs in the process). It seems likely that the O's will eventually be overwhelmed by all of the talent in the AL East, but they're holding their own for the time being.

The Yankees need their bullpen to be this good because their starting rotation is ranked 28th, and they just lost Michael Pineda for the season.

It looks like Pittsburgh may need the best pitching in the league (they're currently #2) to avoid losing 100 games, because they are dead last in runs scored by a wide margin. Oakland is in basically the same boat, except they're 28th in runs instead of 30th.

Highest OPS, Home or Away

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 04:50:00 +0000

Highest OPS (Home or Away) min 25 PA
Nolan Reimold, Orioles (Away) 1.700
Matt Kemp, Dodgers (Home) 1.653
David Ortiz, Red Sox (Home) 1.478
Evan Longoria, Rays (Home) 1.456
Josh Willingham, Twins (Home) 1.434
Chase Headley, Padres (Home) 1.401

Racing Against Time, Part 1

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 03:32:00 +0000

Michael Young: 3000 H (2085 H, 35 yrs)
Paul Konerko: 500 Home HR (398 HR, 36 yrs)
Juan Pierre: 700 SB (or close to it) (557 SB, 34 yrs)

Here are 3 players that are thought of as very good, but probably not Hall of Fame yet. Of the 3, the only milestone that would make it a near-certainty that they would get into the Hall would probably be 3000 hits for Michael Young. It is not clear how home runs will be treated after the steroid era inflated, but 500 HR would still be a great achievement for Konerko.

Juan Pierre is theoretically still in the hunt for 3000 hits too (2032 H), but his hit totals and batting average are down from his 2003-2007 heyday. He is currently tied for 25th all time in SB, but with only 101 more he would move into 13th all time. This seems likely if he can stay healthy, and 700 would put him at #11 (between Honus Wager and Joe Morgan)

It is possible that they will achieve these milestones with room to spare, but it seems unlikely. There are some players who reached these milestones in their 40's (Paul Molitor, Randy Johnson), but it is rare. Players often start wearing down quickly around 40, so there is not a lot of time for these three players. For right now, they are playing at a high level, which makes these milestones very possible in the years ahead.

Why is Atlanta scoring so many runs?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 16:07:00 +0000

The Atlanta Braves are #1 in runs scored, after being #22 last year. Looking at the other numbers, you would expect that the Rangers, Cardinals or Yankees would be leading in runs. How are the Braves doing it?

Atlanta Offense - 2012
#1, R
#6, BA
#9, OBP
#6, SLG
#5, OPS
t-#7, HR
t-#8, 2B
#7, OPS with RISP
#19, OPS with no runners on
t-#1, OPS with runners on

In 2011, they were #21 in BA and #22 in OPS with runners on. The resurgence of Jason Heyward is playing a big role (.682 OPS with runners on in 2011, .978 this year), but the biggest story is Freddie Freeman. He is hitting 1.252 with runners on (3 HR, 13 RBI in 27 AB) after .826 (with a solid .306 BA) in 2011. If the veterans can stay healthy, the Braves could have their best offense in years.

More Home Runs than Strikeouts

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 05:57:00 +0000

More HR than SO (2012)
A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox (4 HR, 3 SO)
Omar Infante, Marlins (4, 2)
Ian Kinsler, Rangers (4, 3)
Nate Schierholtz, Giants (2, 1)
Chris Denorfia, Padres (1, 0)

Nate Schierholtz struck out 61 times last year in only 335 AB, so it is surprising that he is here. It is possible that A.J. Pierzynski or Omar Infante will have big power seasons, although it's unlikely (the White Sox would probably be happy with A.J. hitting around 15 again, instead of the 8 he hit last year). Ian Kinsler could be a legitimate MVP candidate if he can raise his batting average back to where is was in 2008 (.319), and go 30/30 again and score a lot of runs.

The importance of April pitching success

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 05:28:00 +0000

Team ERA, April

2012
1. Nationals
2. Rangers
3. Phillies
4. Mets
5. Cardinals

2011
1. A's (#10 at end of season)
2. Angels (6)
3. Padres (3)
4. Marlins (16)
5. Phillies (1)

2010
1. Cardinals (5)
2. Giants (1)
3. Padres (2)
4. Mets (7)
5. Rays (8)

It's not the end of April yet, and the last 2 years isn't a large sample size, but this does show something positive for the teams that pitch well in April. If these are the same teams at the end of the April, then it is not ridiculous to assume that four of them will end up in the top 10 at the end of the season. If so, then it will end up being a very tough year for batters in the NL East, and possibly a good battle for the division crown.

Are the Indians a contender?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 00:53:00 +0000

Team OPS, 2012 v. 2011

2012
1. Cardinals (#5 in 2011)
2. Red Sox (#1)
3. Tigers (#3)
4. Indians (#t-17)
t-5. Rangers (#2)
t-5. Rockies (#8)
t-5. Orioles (#12)

Nobody picked the Indians to make the playoffs, but they're showing some firepower that could make things interesting. Their starting rotation isn't bad either: Derek Lowe, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Tomlin and Justin Masterson have all had success and could keep them competitive throughout the season. The bullpen is a major concern, and it might be their biggest stumbling block.

The wild card is Ubaldo Jimenez, who has shown in the past that he is capable of being dominant for long stretches. The Tigers are rightly favored to win the division, but they are not invincible. Their #2 starter is on the DL, and their rotation behind Verlander isn't unhittable.

The Indians clearly have some talent, and some of the other teams predicted to be contenders in the AL might have issues as well (see Angels, Rays). They probably won't make the playoffs, but they are a team worth watching and might end up causing problems for some teams planning on playing in October.

Saturday Question

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 16:21:00 +0000

The consensus for the AL this season was that 6 teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, Rangers, Angels) would battle for the 5 playoff spots. In a preseason poll of 50 experts on ESPN.com, the only deviation from these 6 teams was that 2 experts picked the Blue Jays to win one of the wild card slots. After watching everyone in action for a little over a week, are there any surprise playoff teams in the AL?

Best/Worst Pitching 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 13:21:00 +0000

OPS Against

Starters
1. Phillies, .500
2. Nationals, .514
3. Royals, .558

28. Reds, .850
29. Rockies, .863
30. Yankees, .930

There are some nice surprises here, such as Kansas City (29th in starters OPS allowed last year). The Yankees being dead last by a wide margin is a little jarring, although it does reflect only starts. Two of those starts have been by C.C. Sabathia, and we have to assume he'll get better.

It has to be disconcerting for an organization that is expecting a championship and has a payroll over $200 million to see such poor starting pitching for the first week. There are questions about all of their starters except for Sabathia, and winning the AL East with a weak rotation could prove tough even to the Yankees.

Relievers
1. Diamondbacks, .438
2. White Sox, .512
3. Pirates, .529

28. Angels, .857
29. Rays, .864
30. Giants, .919

The Giants did have the one terrible game in Colorado, but this has to be a concern to all of these teams that are expected to contend and have excellent pitching. Again, it is very early, but these might show a disturbing trend that could make life difficult for some teams with high expectations.

Minnesota is probably hitting too many ground balls

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 23:10:00 +0000

The Twins routinely rank at or nor the top of hitting ground balls in relation to fly balls, but this year it is off the charts:

Ground Balls/Fly Balls (2012)
1. Twins: 2.33
2. Indians: 1.22
3. Padres: 1.20
4. D-backs: 1.20
5. Giants: 1.07

For an idea of how bizarre 2.33 is, here are the highest ratios from the last few seasons:

Highest G/F (2008-2011)
2011: Twins .99
2010: Astros .98
2009: Astros .99
2008: Giants: .98

Not surprisingly, the Twins are last in runs, hits, and near the bottom in doubles and home runs. They're 0-4, and they started the season by losing three straight to the Orioles. The Orioles may have some promising arms, but they're not all Brandon Webb in his prime.

This will undoubtedly come back to earth a bit at some point (Denard Span and Alexi Casilla will hit a fly ball at some point), but we might be looking at a team that hits an unusually high number of ground balls (and scores very few runs). It might even be tonight with Jered Weaver, who is a great pitcher, but allows a fair number of fly balls.

Update (4/13): The Twins offense came to life, scoring 16 runs over 2 games, and the G/F is down to a less outlandish 1.34 (still highest in the league).

Improved starting rotations in 2012?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 12:54:00 +0000

Rank, ERA of Starters (up 15+ spots since 2011)
1. Royals (#29 in 2011)
3. Pirates (19)
5. Orioles (30)
6. Indians (21)
7. Astros (24)

It is very early, and one bad start would cause this to change quickly. It is very unlikely that all, or even most, of these teams will finish in the top 10 of Starters ERA at the end of the year. That said, these are not the same staffs that they had last year.

Some of these teams have added new pitchers, and younger pitchers might be ready to make big leaps forward. The Royals, for instance, would seem to have a rotation good enough to avoid being ranked 29th again, but we will have to wait and see.

Will the Mariners actually have a decent offense this season?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 06:07:00 +0000

We shouldn't make too much of a few games at the beginning of the season, but the Mariners may have shown a way for them to have an improved offense this season (they've finished dead last in runs scored each of the last two years).
Chone Figgins is looking like he did with the Angels, which is a very good development for the Mariners. Ichiro is also hitting well, and could return to form after hitting below .300 for the first time last year. Dustin Ackley (the 2nd overall pick in the 2009 draft) has been productive, and is in a good spot hitting 2nd. Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak haven't hit much, but they are enormously talented players and will likely be given a lot of at-bats this season to prove themselves.
The odds are that the Mariners will be luckly to break .500 and will be buried by the Angels and Rangers early in the season. While Ichiro is probably nearing the end of his career, they have a lot of young talent in the lineup that could make them relevant again soon. If Chone Figgins and Ichiro return to form and the young talent develops quickly, they could make a major stride forward this year.

Pitching gems in 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 05:19:00 +0000

7+ IP, 0 ER (2012)
Chad Billingsley, Dodgers (8.1 IP)
Justin Verlander, Tigers (8)
Jered Weaver, Angels (8)
Roy Halladay, Phillies (8)
Jake Arrieta, Orioles (7)
Johnny Cueto, Reds (7)

The biggest surprise is clearly Jake Arrieta, who did not look like an ideal opening day starter for the Orioles. It should be noted that he was pitching against the Twins, who lost 99 games last year (although they do have Mauer and Morneau back in the lineup). If Billingsley (who has been a solid starter for 5 years) is primed for a great year, then the Dodgers are in great shape at the top of their rotation.

The Reds need Johnny Cueto to have a good season is they are going to make a playoff run. The NL Central is kind of up in the air with the Brewers losing Prince Fielder, but it looks very possible that the Cardinals will be tough to beat.

Weaver, Halladay and Verlander are all (as always) top contenders for the Cy Young, and their performances are not a surprise. There were elite pitchers that struggled (Lincecum, Sabbathia), so the Tigers, Angels and Phillies should feel very good. Although it is unlikely that the Orioles will make any noise in the AL East, Jake Arrieta might be a pitcher to watch out for this season.

A golden age of second baseman?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 02:48:00 +0000

OPS, Second Baseman (at least 80% of games) 2000+ AB (since 1915)
.899 Charlie Gehringer (1924-1942)
.882 Chase Utley (2003-present)
.855 Jeff Kent (1992-2008)
.846 Tony Lazzeri (1926-1939)
.843 Robinson Cano (2005-present)
.837 Dustin Pedroia (2006-present)
.824 Ian Kinsler (2006-present)
.824 Dan Uggla (2006-present)
.823 Bobby Doerr (1937-1951)
.822 Joe Gordon (1938-1950)

The next 3 on the list are Joe Morgan, Roberto Alomar and Ryne Sandberg. Everyone on the list who has become eligible for the Hall of Fame has inducted, and Jeff Kent will certainly follow in a few years. None of the active players are locks for the Hall of Fame, although Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia might be in a few years if they stay healthy.

Chase Utley has the talent, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy and it might be too late to catch up (he turned 33 in the offseason). Ian Kinsler and Dan Uggla are quality players, but don't seem to be Hall of Fame players right now. Then again, they might have a chance because they will be judged against other second baseman.

They might also be harmed by the fact that they won't stand out as much from other second baseman as someone like Jeff Kent did during his career. This is a great era of second baseman, and all of them could still reach the Hall of Fame.

Andy Pettitte's Return

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 18:21:00 +0000

10+ wins, 3.50 ERA or lower (39+ years, LHP since 1965)
1984 Jerry Koosman
1988 Jerry Reuss
2002 Jamie Moyer
2003 Jamie Moyer
2004 Randy Johnson
2005 Kenny Rogers

Andy Pettitte, who will be 40 in June, is trying to make a comeback with the Yankees. This is something that the Yankees have the luxery to do, and it makes sense. They tend to do better in the postseason with Pettitte, and it'll be worth it if he can make a contribution in October. Older lefties, especially those not named Jamie Moyer, haven't had much success, but Pettitte does have a shot at 39 coming off a year off.

Should Tim Hudson be a Hall of Famer?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 21:39:00 +0000

This might seem kind of ridiculous, because Hudson (who will turn 37 this year) only has 181 wins and has never won a Cy Young award. His win-loss% (.651) is excellent, but overall he just doesn't seem like Hall of Fame material. At least some part of that calculation, though, is rooted in the idea that a starting pitcher (unless they're Sandy Koufax) needs 300 wins (or get really close) to make it in.

Look at Bert Blyleven: he finished with 287 wins and was superior in many ways to pitchers already in the Hall of Fame with 300 wins (like Phil Niekro), but it took him 15 years to be elected. For the time being (it will change with Maddux, Glavine and Randy Johnson), Blyleven is the only starting pitcher (I'll exclude pitchers like Eckersley and Smoltz who had unique careers combining starting and relieving) to start his career after 1967 and make it to the Hall. There are various reasons for this, and one is the sustained reliance on 300 wins as a necessity.

Tim Hudson is just an example of someone that should be looked at. It is common for voters to the Hall of Fame to evaluate players against other players from their era, not just some never-changing benchmark. Tim Hudson has been one of the best pitchers of the past decade.

Since his first year in 1999, he is 2nd in wins (to Roy Halladay) and is 7th (!) in W-L% of all pitchers with 275+ decisions since 1900 (Whitey Ford, Pedro Martinez, Lefty Grove, Roy Halladay, Christy Mathewson, Roy Halladay). Are these Hall of Fame credentials? Probably not, with the current way of voting.

Winning 180 games over 13 years wouldn't have been that amazing if you starting your career in 1965, but times have changed. The emergence of 5 man rotations and heavily used bullpens cut into the number of decisions every pitcher gets, even if they stay healthy.

It is true that Johnson, Maddux and Glavine managed to win 300 games in the 90's and 00's, but that is becoming increasingly rare. It might be time to rethink what it takes for a starting pitcher to get into the Hall of Fame to match the way the game is played now.

Is it a good idea to expand the playoffs?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 17:47:00 +0000

Playoffs teams if 4 wild card playoff system had been in place
2011: Red Sox (90-72; 1 GB), Braves (89-73; 1 GB)
2010: Red Sox (89-73; 6 GB), Padres (90-72; 1 GB)
2009: Rangers (87-75; 8 GB), Giants (88-74; 4 GB)
2008: Yankees (89-73; 6 GB), Mets (89-73; 1 GB)
2007: Tigers (88-74; 6 GB), Padres (89-74; 1 GB)
2006: White Sox (90-72; 5 GB), Phillies (85-77; 3 GB)
2005: Indians (93-69; 2 GB), Phillies (88-74; 1 GB)
2004: A's (91-71; 7 GB), Giants (91-71; 1 GB)

MLB appears close to adding 2 wild card teams this season, with the two wc teams in each league having a one game playoff. One stated reason for doing this is that there has not been enough of an incentive for teams to win their division if they are cruising to the wild card anyway.

That sounds like a worthy goal, but that is not always realistic even under this new system. For instance, way back in 2011, the Yankees had a huge lead in the AL East (won it by 6 games) and the Wild Card was going to come down to the collapsing Red Sox and the surging Rays. The Red Sox were desperately trying to win the wild card and avoid ignominy. The final dash to the wild card produced one of the most exciting nights of baseball ever, capped off by Evan Longoria hitting a walk off home run against the Yankees after Jonathan Papelbon blew a save against the Orioles minutes earlier.

Under the new proposed format, those games wouldn't have mattered much (except for home field in the one game playoff), and the Red Sox would have grabbed one of the Wild Card slots after their historic collapse. That's only one example where doing this to make winning the division more important would not have worked.

In this example, the new format would have allowed an undeserving team in the playoffs without making the division title more important. Of course, there are other examples where the new system would make a difference (such as in 2010 where the Yankees and Rays were tied for the division going into the final game and no one else in the race for the Wild Card).

That does not mean that adding two new wild card teams is completely without merit. There will be plenty of positives as well as negatives. The one game playoffs would often be thrilling, and two additional teams (maybe teams that haven't been the playoffs a lot) would get their chance at getting to the World Series. We would learn to love it, or at least accept it.

It will be controversial if second place wild card teams that are 6 games back win these games on a regular basis. Most people, though, love an underdog and won't complaint too much if the Yankees or Red Sox are that first place team. Based on that last 8 years, that scenario is much more likely in the American League, where the second place wild card team was at least 5 games back in 6 of 8 years, while it never happened in the NL.

Turning it into a three game series might make it more fair, with the "better" team being less susceptible to losing in a fluky way. Adding three games could make scheduling the playoffs a nightmare, especially now that they want the World Series to end in October. It also might be too big of a punishment for not winning the division (especially when the wild card teams might have a better record than a division winner). It will work itself out, but you have to hope that this is the last playoff expansion they have in mind.

Player to watch: Melky Cabrera

noreply@blogger.com (Brad Templeman) — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 04:42:00 +0000

200+ H, 20+ SB, 18+ HR, 40+ 2B (age 26 or younger)
1925 Kiki Cuyler (Pirates)
1929 Babe Herman (Dodgers)
1959 Vada Pinson (Reds)
1997 Nomar Garciaparra (Red Sox)
2002 Alfonso Soriano (Yankees)
2007 Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
2011 Melky Cabrera (Royals) 201 H, 20 SB, 18 HR, 44 2B

Melky Cabrera has been in the league since 2005, but this came out of nowhere. In 2010, he had over 500 PA, and hit .255 with only 4 HR and 7 SB. He signed a one year contract with the Royals and ended up had an excellent season. He was traded to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez a few months ago.

The Giants contended last year (86 wins and 4 GB in Wild Card race) despite coming in 29th in runs, so Cabrera could play a big role in the NL West if he can continue to produce like this. This is a contract year for Cabrera, and it could be a chance to go back to the playoffs (where he has mostly struggled, except for the 2009 ALCS).

Every other player on that list produced well beyond one season, but it's too early to say if this is something we can expect from Melky every year. He'll have his chance to show it wasn't a fluke in 2012.