Statistics Beats the NFL Point Spread

Super Bowl Pick

2010-01-31T20:33:00.010-06:00

Pick: Indianapolis -4.5 -$180

How sad it is that the season has come to an end, so fast. I should really take up sports investing in some other sport in order to be into it throughout the year. Unfortunately, "real work" and kids will not allow me to do this (unless...).

Talking about work. My co-workers and I are doing this NFL picks (straight-up) throughout the NFL playoffs. So far, of course, I'm ahead even though they have the advantage of looking at my picks before they make theirs. It has come down to only two (me and Dave). The only way Dave can win is if we pick opposites and he's right. For a second, I thought of posting my pick after the coming Friday so he can't see my pick, but I'm so confident against the spread (yet even more straight up) that I will reveal it early for you, Dave.

Peyton Manning is a proven champion and I would never bet against one. Who would ever best against Michael Jordan? Although these two athletes are incomparable, they are both champions and when given their moment, they will triumph. Forget Dwight Freeney and all other small details. This is about Drew vs Peyton, I chose Peyton.

New Orleans deserves to win. The city and the fans need this ring, but NO not at homw is a no-no. Remember the 3-point victory against STL, NO should have crushed St. Louis! And the list goes on about the Saints when their visiting. In the Super Bowl, their playing at a neutral field, but I think its all about being at home or not. And when they're not at home they, s$%@. Even with a spread of 5.5 as of today, my pick is Peyton to win at least by 7. In fact, I will predict the final score to be: 35-27. Betting only 10% of bankroll in order to enjoy the success of the season regardless of the outcome.

Enjoy the off-season everyone, and if you know someone or someone that knows someone that needs statistical analysis in the sports area, send'em my way. Great season everyone and thank you for all your encouragement, feedback, and contribution.

Sincerely,

Jaime
admin(at)nflpickles.com

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for SUPER BOWL 44!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SUPER BOWL: NEW ORLEANS - INDIANAPOLIS	-5.5	-8	-2.5	56%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

No Conference Picks, NFL Pickles on Vacation

2010-01-22T14:45:00.002-06:00

I am currently on an enchanted island in the Caribbean. The statistical software that runs the computer based NFL picks and game simulations was left in Chicago. Sorry for the inconvenience. I'll be back to put up THE super bowl pick with score predictions.

2009 Divisional Point Spread Picks

2010-01-13T21:37:00.007-06:00

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 + $127.27
Pick 2: New York +7 + $127.27
Pick 3: Dallas +2.5 -$140
Pick 4: Indianapolis -6.5 + $127.27

If anything has taught us about last week's games is that anything can happen. Throw away your biases, ignore consensus picks, look at the numbers, and make solid picks. You do not have to agree with me, and if you don't, tell me why. Our goal is to come out profitable every playoff week and finish above 100% ROI. Risking 30% of bankroll this week equals $140 per game.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for the Divisional Playoff games 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
ARIZONA @ NEW ORLEANS	-7	-9.3	-2.3	59%
NY JETS @ SAN DIEGO	-7	-2.2	4.8	58%
DALLAS @ MINNESOTA	-2.5	1.5	1.0	57%
BALTIMORE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-6.5	-10.0	-3.5	56%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 Wild Card Playoffs

2010-01-06T23:00:00.008-06:00

Pick 1: Packers -$175
Pick 2: Cowbows + $159.09
Pick 3: Jets + $159.09

Most of you will probably disagree with the Cowboys and Jets pick right? According to Covers, 60% of players pick New England against the spread, 62% Green Bay, 60% Cincinnati, and 58% Philadelphia. Not to fear though, when confidence is high, NFL Pickles has proven to be much more successful than the wisdom of the crowds. At Project Point Spread for example, last time I checked, the fan base was 111-107, 53% ATS. True, they are picking all games, and for that, it is actually pretty good. ThePredictionTracker has only 10 computer based NFL football predictions models above 53%.

For the playoffs, we are increasing risk a bit since there is only a few games left in the season. Also, we have a better idea of the accuracy against the spread, which lifts percent of payroll to use in a given week. 3 games at $175 each uses 30% of bankroll for the week. Here is why I like this week's picks:

Packers @ Arizona $175 - Green Bay finished the regular season with the best record against the spread. Packers went for it in the last week, Arizona slacked off. I like Rodgers' attitude. Boldin is questionable for the Cardinals, but also is Charles Woodson for GB. Green Bay's defensive strategy is simple: double team Fitzgerald at all times and you will get the same result that happened in SF in Week 14 Monday Night.

Philadelphia @ Dallas $175 - 1) The Eagles scored zero points last week in Dallas. 2) They're playing in Dallas. 3) The computer based model says so.

NY Jets @ Cincinnati $175 - Defense wins games, and the Jets have a huge defensive advantage by allowing 4 points and 50 yards less per game than Cinci.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for Wild Card Playoffs 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA	-1	5.0	6.0	57%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	-4	-7.0	-3.0	56%
NY JETS @ CINCINNATI	-2.5	6.0	8.5	56%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND	-3	-4.0	-1.0	51%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Spread Picks Week 17

2009-12-30T21:25:00.004-06:00

No Picks this week. There are too many variables to account for with many teams having nothing to play for. Baltimore, Chicago, and Philadelphia were tempting picks. We'll save our energy and money for the playoffs. Below is the table with point spread predictions.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for Week 17 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	-3	0.5	3.5	65%
BALTIMORE @ OAKLAND	10.5	12.0	1.5	61%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO	-7.5	1.5	9.0	57%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	-7	-9.0	-2.0	57%
NEW ENGLAND @ HOUSTON	-8	-5.5	2.5	57%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT	3	8.9	5.9	56%
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA	-9	-7.7	1.3	55%
WASHINGTON @ SAN DIEGO	-4	-7.2	-3.2	54%
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA	-3.5	3.6	7.1	53%
TENNESSEE @ SEATTLE	4.5	11.9	7.4	51%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY	2.5	9.1	6.6	50%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	7	14.2	7.2	49%
PITTSBURGH @ MIAMI	3	7.1	4.1	47%
CINCINNATI @ NY JETS	-10	-12.2	-2.2	45%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER	-13	-9.1	3.9	45%
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND	-1	-3.4	-2.4	42%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16

2009-12-22T23:05:00.006-06:00

Pick 1: Denver +7 + $113.64
Pick 2: New England -7.5 + $113.64
Pick 3: Oakland +3.5 -$125

I'll spare you this week of made up match-up descriptions, my gift to you these holidays :)

Your bankroll is your greatest asset, preserve it. But as the end of the season approaches and the return is up at 62%, we'll upgrade the bankroll for the coming weeks and the playoffs. This week, 22%. Three games = $125/gm. I'm on vacation (but still had some time to continue providing you with computer based NFL picks). Enjoy your holidays and Merry Christmas.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 16 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA	-7	-3.5	3.5	69%
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND	-7.5	-9.1	-1.6	59%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND	-3.5	1.8	5.3	59%
KANSAS CITY @ CINCINNATI	-14	-15.5	-1.5	55%
NY JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS	-5.5	-8.0	-2.5	54%
SAN DIEGO @ TENNESSEE	-3	5	8.0	53%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	7	3.5	-3.5	53%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA	-14	-17.7	-3.7	53%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-2.5	5.8	8.3	52%
CAROLINA @ NY GIANTS	-7	-6.7	0.3	50%
HOUSTON @ MIAMI	-3	-4.0	-1.0	49%
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY	-14	-12.9	1.1	48%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-14	-17.0	-3.0	48%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	7	11.0	4.0	46%
BUFFALO @ ATLANTA	-9	-5.0	4.0	46%
DETROIT @ SAN FRANCISCO	-12	-10.2	1.8	45%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

2009-12-17T12:41:00.009-06:00

Pick 1: New England -7 PUSH
Pick 2: New Orleans -7 -$100
Pick 3: Indianapolis -3 + $83.33
Pick 4: Pittsburgh -1 PUSH

As the playoffs approach, point spread estimates and picks should be considered very carefully. Teams with secured spots sit their main players and others do not play as hard as they usually do. Usually, week 17 is a no-bet, unless one finds opportunities in games where both teams are fighting for either a playoff spot or home field advantage. I expect the Saints and Colts to continue to play hard and cover the spread this week in order to try to finish with a perfect season.

With a little over 20% of the bankroll, we'll continue our disciplined betting system and strive for more growth as the season ends. With four picks, this equals ~ $100/game. This computer based system has proven to be very successful in the playoffs so we should be decreasing bets in week 16 and 17 and increase for the playoffs.

New England @ Buffalo $100 - The Patriots have done terribly on the road (1-5), but the Bills are not doing that well either at home. Bills have lost to the Patriots in their last 12 games! 12 is a small number I know, but it is reassuring to know. New England needs this game a lot more than the Bills. New England rocks the Bills.

Dallas @ New Orleans $100 - The Saints at home, do I need to say more?

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville $100 (120) - Everyone is all over this spread, which gives me less confident than more. All starters are expected to play on Thursday for the Colts. Will the 22-game winning streak be stopped by the Jaguars? I don't think so. The estimate and the spread are very different, a not so common situation when there are no key players sitting out.

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh $100 - What, the Steelers are going to win this game? This is a classical game of buy low/sell high. The Steelers' 5-game losing streak has this spread beaten down. Also, look at Green Bay's wins: Chicago (2), St. Louis, Detroit (2), Cleveland, Dallas, SF, Baltimore. It's time they face a "tough" team.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 15 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO	7	9.7	2.7	67%
DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS	-7	-10.7	-3.7	62%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	3.0	14.3	11.3	57%
GREEN BAY @ PITTSBURGH	-1	-6.0	-5.0	57%
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE	-7	-11.4	-4.4	53%
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA	-9	3.3	12.3	50%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	3	-1.9	-4.9	50%
ATLANTA @ NY JETS	-6	-7.1	-1.1	49%
OAKLAND @ DENVER	-14	-19.0	-5.0	48%
HOUSTON @ ST LOUIS	10.5	19.2	8.7	48%
MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA	9	17.2	8.2	48%
ARIZONA @ DETROIT	12	8.0	-4.0	47%
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY	-2	-4.2	-2.2	47%
CHICAGO @ BALTIMORE	-10.5	-13.0	-2.5	46%
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO	-6.5	-7.5	-1.0	45%
MIAMI @ TENNESSEE	-3	-10.3	-7.3	45%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

2009-12-08T21:10:00.006-06:00

Pick 1: Denver +7 -$100
Pick 2: Green Bay -3 + $90.91
Pick 3: Arizona -3 -$100
Pick 4: Miami +3 + $90.91

Statistics, NFL, Mineful, and golf, all my favorite things to do, seem so unimportant compared to one's child. This week I experienced a perfect birth and it put everything into perspective. After my precious daughter was born this Monday, I realized that everything I do, including this blog, is for my children's health, education, and better life.

This blog is not only about making picks, but about sports investing discipline. We've gone up and down, but thanks this year's new money management strategy, today we are above 65% ROI. If we maintain moderation in our investment, we'll stay strong until the end of the year and years to come. If not, you may end up being the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches. - W.I.E. Gates

The short short version of each game.
DEN @ IND $100 - Both teams are 8-4 ATS. Indi is playing for their perfect season and Denver for the playoffs, which one is more important?
GB @ CHI $100 - Chicago just plain sucks. Green Bay is hungry for the wild card. The Packers destroy the Bears.
ARI @ SF $100 - Arizona is back to its Super Bowl shape but the spread has yet to notice. Although SF is #1 ATS in the league, this may be the over-correction week.
MIA @ JAC $100 - Miami has faced a much tougher schedule and hence its lower standing. Many formulas out there are based on W-L record, not mine.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 14 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7	0.7	7.7	60%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	3	8.5	5.5	59%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	3	7.0	4.0	59%
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE	-3	5.7	8.7	58%
SEATTLE @ HOUSTON	-6	-9.8	-3.8	56%
CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA	-6.5	-11.0	-4.5	53%
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE	-13.5	-16.0	-2.5	53%
CAROLINA @ NEW ENGLAND	-13.5	-15.6	-2.1	53%
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY	0	3.5	3.5	53%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	-1	1.0	2.0	51%
SAN DIEGO @ DALLAS	-3	1.0	4.0	50%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA	9.5	11.5	2.0	50%
NY JETS @ TAMPA BAY	3.5	11.2	7.7	50%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND	10	9.1	-0.9	49%
ST LOUIS @ TENNESSEE	-13	-16.7	-3.7	48%
WASHINGTON @ OAKLAND	1	6.3	-2.4	47%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 13

2009-12-02T21:35:00.006-06:00

Pick 1: New Orleans -9.5 -$120
Pick 2: Indianapolis -7 + $109.09
Pick 3: Denver -5 + $109.09

Slowly getting out of the pickle with NFLpickles. 7-1 the last two weeks and I'm as confident as always in these week's picks. New Orleans has not demonstrated convincing wins on the road against weak teams (hence the underestimation of this 11-0 team), but after last week's performance how could one ignore this pick? I love betting with Indi. This team never gives up; positive attitudes, hard work, and discipline are components of an 11-0 team that I like to see. 7 points at home? I'm all over this. Finally, Denver is being underrated by much in this game. Orton and the gang are coming back to the shape they were in the early weeks, and a beaten down KC will lose by much more than 5 points.

As for bankroll, we'll continue our conservative 22% approach and distribute them equally to each pick. That is, each pick will receive $120. Sorry for the brief report this week, my wife is starting to have contractions and I may be a father once again soon. Good luck!

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 13 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ORLEANS @ WASHINGTON	9.5	11.5	2.0	63%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7	-15.4	-8.4	60%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY	5	16.7	11.7	57%
ST LOUIS @ CHICAGO	-9	-7.3	1.7	55%
OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH	-14	-4.8	9.2	53%
DETROIT @ CINCINNATI	-13	-15.4	-2.4	53%
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA	4	2.2	-1.8	52%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO	3	7.3	4.3	52%
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND	13	11.5	-1.5	50%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	5.5	10.8	5.3	50%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-6.5	-5.7	0.8	49%
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA	5.5	0.9	-4.6	48%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS	2.5	4.3	1.8	48%
BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY	-3	-4.1	-1.1	46%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	0	10.8	10.8	45%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE	0	5.0	5.0	44%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12

2009-11-24T22:17:00.005-06:00

Pick 1: Indianapolis -3.5 + $114.29
Pick 2: Minnesota -10.5 + $66.67
Pick 3: San Francisco -3 + $109.09

Happy Thanksgiving week to everyone! For those of you worried that you might have one eye on the turkey and the other on the Packers or Cowboys game, worry no more. Those games are not included in this week's picks; although the Cowboys will crush the Raiders at home, the Packers will breeze through Detroit, and Denver beats the Giants.

This week I have 3 NFL locks of the week, yeah right. Have you heard people say that? Who can believe them? In any case, lets deep dive into the 3 NFL spread picks of the week:

IND @ HOU $120 (105) - A 10-0 team playing a 5-5 and the spread is 3, how come? Indi on average scores 4 more points and allows 5 less points than Houston. Indi is 5-0 ATS on the road in the last 5 games, tells me nothing though, but interesting. Consensus favors Indi heavily, which actually worries me. Indi beat Houston by 3 at home in week 9 and since then has won two games by less than 2 points each. This I like, low confidence that they can build a marginal lead.

CHI @ MIN $120 - Chicago is a disaster, but there are still hopes (at least here in Chicago) that they can turn around this team this year, not a chance. The Vikings are very impressive; scoring 10 points more and allowing 3 points less than the Bears. Until the Bears fix their offensive line, rushing game, coaching strategies, wide receivers, and overall confidence, I will confidently go with my model's prediction and bet against my beloved Bears.

JAC @ SF $80 - San Francisco has the best record against the spread so far this year, according to my ATS Standings. Jacksonville has had 3 straight wins (KC, NYJ, BUF). They run and pass the ball with more yardage than the 49ers. QB Mike Smith increased his rating last week with a good second half against the Packers. Least confident of the 3 games, lower wager.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 12 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON	3	5.0	2.0	63%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA	-10.5	-13.5	-3.0	58%
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3	-8.6	-5.6	57%
OAKLAND @ DALLAS	-13.5	-15.1	3.4	56%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	-13.5	-10.1	3.4	53%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE	-2.5	-5.8	-3.3	53%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-9	-11.0	-2.0	53%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI	-14	-17.9	-3.9	52%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-12	-16.4	-4.4	52%
CAROLINA @ NY JETS	-3	-3.2	-0.2	50%
ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE	-1	0.6	1.6	50%
NY GIANTS @ DENVER	6.5	-5.1	-11.6	50%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	3	4.0	1.0	50%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	10	18.8	8.8	48%
NEW ENGLAND @ NEW ORLEANS	-3	-2.0	1.0	47%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS	3	1.5	-1.5	42%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 11

2009-11-18T00:02:00.005-06:00

Pick 1: San Diego -3 + $54.55
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5 + $54.55
Pick 3: Arizona -9 -$60
Pick 4: New Orleans -11 + $54.55

Just like the stock market, bankroll and ATS percentage is expected to oscillate, regardless of your handicapper or strategy. We try our best here to provide you not only with above average picks, but a betting strategy to come out winning at the end of the season. I cannot stress enough the importance of managing your bankroll. As it decreases, so do your bets and vice-versa. If our expected ATS percentage is 58-60%, then by the end of the year you will bank.

Again, this week we'll risk 20% of bankroll. All games equals, means we're betting ~$60/game.

Now, to this week's games. Again we have strong teams playing weaker teams and the spreads to these games range from 9 to 11. We have ARI @ STL, NO @ TB, PIT @ KC, WAS @ DAL, CIN @ KC. New Orleans has lost against the spread in the last two weeks and although I believe they'll rebound this week, the model didn't show much confidence. KC is a disaster and one might be tempted to be all over this game, but in my estimate's opinion, it is "priced right". Dallas might fall a bit short of 11 points according to estimates. Although at they're the only 'strong' team on this list playing at home and Washington showing life only last week, it is a toss up. For Cinci, I've decided to stay away and see how the Bengals play without Cedric Benson.

ARI @ STL $60 - Bulger played well against New Orleans mistake driven game last week. Steven Jackson is running 101 yards per game, with only two TDs. Meaning, the Rams can't score and boy can the cardinals build a lead fast with their passing game.

SD @ DEN $60 -Great divisional game! Question for you: how many points did the spread shift to account for Orton's injury? My guess is about 3 points. Last week's lost against Washington didn't help either. Momentum is on the Chargers with wins against the Eagles and Giants in the last two games. The Denver defense that allowed 6 pts per game in the first 3 games has allowed 28 pts per game in the last 3, what happened? More 3rd down conversions, rushing yards sky-rocketed, and many other reasons. Ask Mike Nolan, my guess it continues this week.

SF @ GB $60 - Great game for Green Bay last week, but that does not sum up their season. This spread seems inflated by recency bias. The 49ers are at the top of the ATS Standings. Although they won last week against the Bears, their offense was not impressive at all. 4 INT and the game came down to the last play, an interception.

NO @ TB $60 - Sharper and Greer could return for this week's game with Tampa Bay. If injuries do not plague the Saints, I don't see them losing their strong lead in the last quarter as they did against the Falcons and Rams.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 11 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	3	6	3	62%
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY	-6.5	0.7	7.2	60%
CINCINNATI @ OAKLAND	9.5	12.2	2.7	59%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY	11	18.6	7.6	57%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS	9	20.6	11.6	57%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON	-4.5	-9.3	-4.8	54%
MIAMI @ CAROLINA	-3	0.5	3.5	54%
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS	-6.5	-2.3	4.2	53%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS	-11	-9.0	2.0	53%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND	-10.5	-9.5	1.0	53%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE	1	1.9	2.9	51%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY	10	11.6	1.6	50%
BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE	-8.5	-6.0	2.5	50%
PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO	3	4.3	1.3	48%
SEATTLE @ MINNESOTA	-11	-9.8	1.2	47%
CLEVELAND @ DETROIT	-3.5	-5.4	1.9	44%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10

2009-11-10T22:57:00.005-06:00

Pick 1: New Orleans -13.5 -$90
Pick 2: Baltimore -10.5 + $81.82
Pick 3: Denver -3.5 -$90

It is time to bounce back from last week's debacle. Lets increase the bankroll by banking on the Tomato Cans of the NFL Theory. The tomato can phrase came from ESPN's Chris Berman, but the theory that the line is unwilling to give very high spreads to struggling teams playing against strong teams is a NFLpickles model discovery. These teams including the Rams, Redskins, Lions, Chiefs, and Browns are probably thinking what Marv Cook said: “We've got to find a way to win. I'm willing to start cheating.”

This week I was all smiles when the model not only predicted the spreads to be well above the line, but the confidence measure (probability that the point spread estimate is in the correct side) was highest for 3 games that will test this theory. Lets look at these 3 NFL games more carefully:

NO @ STL $90 - The best team in the league against possibly the worst team in the league and the spread is 13.5 or 14? The estimate is 36, might be a statistical aberration, but this price is not right. The Saints #1 in points per game with 37.9 and the Rams last with 9.6. I think NO's last two "weak" games has hurt people's confidence in the team, i.e. recency bias.

BAL @ CLE $90 - Baltimore has not been able to finish games against tough opponents. This 1-4 record in the last 5 games has brought this spread down much lower than it should be. Are we going to see a 34-3 blowout as their last encounter? Probably not. But whether Cleveland decides to change their QB or not, Baltimore will win by at least two TDs.

DEN @ WAS $90 - Am a reading the spread correctly or did someone forget to add a 1 in front? The Kyle that played in Chicago came out yesterday and threw 3 INT. This was bound to happen, but not against the Redskins. The Denver defense, 3rd in the NFL in points allowed, plays a big role on Sunday and shuts down the Redskins.

Without further adieu, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 10 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS	13.5	36.0	22.5	66%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND	10.5	15.5	5.0	64%
DENVER @ WASHINGTON	3.5	11.2	7.7	59%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	-7	3.3	10.3	55%
JACKSONVILLE @ NY JETS	-7	-1.0	6.0	54%
NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3	-1.6	1.4	53%
TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI	-10	-8.2	1.8	53%
CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3	-6.5	-3.5	51%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA	-16.5	-19.1	-2.6	50%
BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE	-6.5	-0.9	-7.4	50%
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN DIEGO	-2.5	12.6	15.1	50%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY	3	10.0	7.0	48%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	-9	-23.0	-14.0	44%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA	1.5	7.5	6.0	43%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	-1.5	-3	-1.5	43%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 9

2009-11-03T19:47:00.007-06:00

Pick 1: San Francisco -4 -$85
Pick 2: Green Bay -10 -$85
Pick 3: NY Giants -5 -$85
Pick 4: Baltimore -3 -$85

As we enter the second half of the NFL season, we understand that there will be good days and bad. There are many factors that are unaccounted for by statistical models, hence the concept of variability and confidence. The goal is to create a winning strategy using Statistics as a guide and Discipline as the driver. Although I would like to maximize the ATS success percentage (currently at 70.4%) for the year, the main goal of this blog is to increase the growth percentage (currently at 61.3%), that is the the real key performance indicator to measure success.

Thank you for the great feedback you've given so far, we've incorporated at least one new thing, instructions on reading the table below. Thanks again. If you haven't yet, please complete these few questions so we can keep improving NFLpickles.

Going all even this week in terms of bankroll used per game. No underdogs this week. Sorry for the short descriptions, need to "get back to work".

TEN @ SF $85 - Almost bailed out since because of Vince Young. I should've bailed out of this game last week. Estimate is above and beyond what Young can do. 49ers by 10.

GB @ TB $85 - The NFL statistical model backing up the tomato cans of the NFL theory. GB by 2 TDs.

SD @ NYG $85 - New York underrated because of its 3 game losing streak.

BAL @ CIN $85 - Too much D by the Ravens.

Without further adieu, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 9 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TENNESSEE @ SAN FRANCISCO	-4	-15.8	-11.8	67%
GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY	10	15.1	5.1	64%
SAN DIEGO @ NY GIANTS	-5	-7.9	-2.9	63%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI	3	5.2	2.2	59%
DETROIT @ SEATTLE	-10	-11.4	-1.4	53%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND	-11	-12.2	-1.2	53%
KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE	-6.5	-9.4	-2.9	52%
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER	3	-7.1	-10.1	51%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS	-9	-9.2	-0.2	50%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	-13.5	-12	1.5	50%
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA	-10	-12.2	-2.2	48%
ARIZONA @ CHICAGO	-3	6.9	9.9	46%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	-2.1	1.1	45%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Visitor Feedback Needed

2009-11-03T11:49:00.004-06:00

Hello everyone,

We just lost our streak of 6 winning weeks in a row due to a series stupid plays the Saints did last night. I don't want to get into discussing that game, it makes me extremely mad.

Anyways, we would like to get your feedback regarding this site. The following short (less than 1 minute) survey will be used to improve NFLpickles. Your feedback is very important to us.

Thank you in advance,

Jaime

ACCESS THE SURVEY HERE: http://nflpickles.nisurvey.com

3 Great NFL Point Spread Sites

2009-10-31T20:10:00.008-05:00

In recent weeks, I have become acquainted with 3 people writing blogs and/or sites that add great value to making prediction to NFL games against the spread. I want to take this opportunity to share these sites with you and give you a brief overview of what they do. Notice that they have been added to my recently new section, the Blogroll.

Project Point Spread
President and Co-founder Jeff Wayne and I started conversing at the end of 2008. I first emailed Jeff to tell him that I loved his site. I mentioned to him that "Finally, handicappers are going to be put in the hot seat. Many claim up to 75% ATS record year by year, now your site will show the true good handicappers." He replied saying that "what you mentioned is at the heart of my philosophy and one of the main motivations for the site".

He also believes "There's a lot of predictive power in crowdsourcing but none of the big players have done it right yet so the results haven't been very good." Because Project Point Spread is a sports pick'em community where you can challenge friends, follow experts, enter contests, and trade picks with other members they track and show you how successful the collective knowledge is. These guys are on to something and as they keep collecting data, they will definitely provide valuable tools for us all.

They've got a contest to win tickets to the NFL to whomever gets the most correct picks against the spread. I will not win since I only enter the picks you see in this site. I did suggest to Jeff to have a "Pick 3" contest next year. You can track my picks at project point spread as well, I'm StatDawg.

The Prediction Tracker
While Project Point Spread tracks the masses, The Prediction Tracker tracks computer based football prediction. Todd Beck runs the site and I've recently exchanged emails with him. He lives in Chicago so I hope one day to get together for coffee.

The Prediction Tracker is an amazing site. Basically, Todd reads in point spread forecasts from more than 50 sites (plus I think many of his own computer based NFL predictions) and tracks not only ATS record like we do here, but other statistical measures of accuracy like absolute error, mean square error, and bias. This site also puts handicappers (or at least those that want to publicly be held accountable) in the hot seat. Todd has given me the honor to be part of this great site, and starting this week, you can see how my point spread estimates fare with other computer based NFL prediction methodologies.

Best of Blog.net
Best of Blog is more like this blog. A free site to get NFL picks against the point spread (and over under). My friend Jim and I have been talking about our systems many times this year. He also adds a lot of value to this blog by adding many comments to it. He also has a page on his site that benchmarks my bankroll, his bankroll, and the S&P 500. Here is a brief description of his system in his own words.

The Adjusted Cumulative Distribution Function is the key to my system. I use it to identify my bets for each week, to compute the probabilities for each week, and to measure actual
results vs expectation values for the season. As far as gamblers are concerned, I'm a farily conservative fellow. As a result I include over under bets in my weekly picks. This increases the number of bets, narrowing the distribution around the expectation value, which tends to be
around 110% if using a 10% juice book. Those of you have have been through the highs of 2007 & 2009 or the occasional lows of 2008 with Jaime understand the standard deviation. To that end I consider setting realistic expectations for sports betting to be of the utmost importance.

------

Thanks a lot to all three of you.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8

2009-10-28T23:34:00.008-05:00

Pick 1: Jacksonville +3 -$90
Pick 2: Miami +3.5 + $63.64
Pick 3: New Orleans -10 -$90 BS!
Pick 4: Minnesota +3 + $63.64

We (yes, you who follow my picks and I) are crushing the sports books. The hundreds of readers I get to this NFL spread picks blog daily apparently are taking advantage of these outrageously successful free NFL picks. The theory of the huge disparity of teams is hurting the sports books in Vegas according to Bad Teams Turn Sports Books into Losers and in part it could be my fault :)

Week 8
"Forecasting future events is often like searching for a black cat in an unlit room, that may not even be there." - Steve Davidson

That is how I felt this week. Before I run my NFL statistical models of the point spread, I usually just do what any other regular person would do: look at spread for each game. Based on pure judgement, then I start thinking which games might be good opportunities. Usually, like this week, I end up with a completely different set of picks after running the stats. But this week I could not pinpoint a game where I was very confident (like last week Indi pick) that it would be a good pick and if the model confirmed even better. For example, this week I thought Giants should beat the Eagles, Houston will cover, and Bears suck so no way they'll win by more than two TDs, although none of them I was completely excited about.

This week, since the confidence levels are a bit lower, according to Kelly's formula the bankroll will decrease as well. We'll be using 18% of bankroll weighted close to probabilities.

Then, I ran the stats and soon after these 4 picks showed up I was a bit skeptic, but the more I think about them the more I like them. Here is why:

JAC @ TEN $90 - Ok so Vince Young is starting, does that mean they're better? No, if not he would have started at the beginning of the season and would have led the team last year to a 13-3 record.

ATL @ NO $90 - Who can bet against the Saints? If you did last week, at the 3rd quarter you were probably thinking of banking the money, oops. This team is amazing and so fun to watch, can't wait to see them Monday night at home. They are undefeated both straight up and against the spread.

MIA @ NYJ $70 - Miami beat them this year and will beat them again. Don't judge this game by their W/L records, Miami has had a slighter tougher schedule. Chad Henne is playing relatively well and Ricky Williams is rocking. Mr. Sanchez will throw a couple of INTs.

MIN @ GB $70 - Will Favre be playing at home or away? Who will everyone at Green Bay cheer for? In any case, I think it is Mr Peterson who will dominate. He's been quiet the past few weeks, due for a break out game.

Below our NFL week 8 point spread estimates and confidence percentages:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE	-3	3.1	6.1	59%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS	-10	-13.8	-3.8	58%
MIAMI @ NY JETS	-3	2.7	5.7	56%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-3	0.4	3.4	56%
DENVER @ BALTIMORE	-3.5	-1.6	1.9	52%
HOUSTON @ BUFFALO	3.5	9.2	5.7	50%
SAN FRANCISCO @ INDIANAPOLIS	-12.5	-12.6	-0.1	50%
ST LOUIS @ DETROIT	-4	-5.7	-1.7	48%
CLEVELAND @ CHICAGO	-13.5	-22.5	-9.0	46%
CAROLINA @ ARIZONA	-10	-19.6	-9.6	43%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO	-16.5	-12.5	4.0	42%
SEATTLE @ DALLAS	-9.5	-3.3	6.2	42%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	0	-2.2	-2.2	40%

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 7

2009-10-21T21:39:00.014-05:00

Pick 1: Indianapolis -13.5 + $81.82
Pick 2: Chicago +1.5 -$75
Pick 3: Arizona +7 + $68.18
Pick 4: Philadelphia -7 + $81.82

"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer." --Kehlog Albran. With reference to NFL games, I insist on my belief of the huge disparity of teams this year. Using statistical modeling to predict scores uses historical data not only to predict the future, but to explain the present. So far, it has paid well. Last week we banked on Tennessee, but lost on Oakland. This week, I have two picks that will continue to validate this theory.

As you can see from the table below of NFL point spread predictions with confidence estimates, I have decided to stay away from the top pick of the week. QB Trent Edwards suffered a concussion and will probably not play Sunday, therefore the Bills pick is off. Minnesota might be a good pick this week, but since coincidentally we have 4 picks above 60% (all visiting teams), it will not be officially a pick.

This week, we are using 22% of the bankroll and will weigh the two highly disparate team games higher. Lets briefly go over the picks:

IND @ STL $90 - This spread should be lingering around 17. Indi has won the last 3 games by more than 17 points. Coming off a bye week, they come to destroy the Rams. Bulger is back! Last week he threw 213 yds with 1TD and 1 INT, are you worried?

CHI @ CIN $75 - At first I did not want to go with my beloved Bears. Their offensive line gave Cutler less than 3 seconds to pass the ball and they could not open holes when they were two yards away from the goal. But the model said so, you gotta pick'em? Well sometimes I mix gut feeling with statistics. But once I saw that the Bengals pass rush will be deteriorated this week with DE Antwan Odom out for the season, what the heck, lets go with the model. What do you think?

ARI @ NYG $75 - Probably many of you will disagree with this pick. New York, at home, Eli, etc. Look at the teams NY has beaten: WAS, DAL, TB, KC, OAK tough schedule. Arizona's WR Boldin is questionable, but his replacement Steve Breaston has shown confidence that he can take the No. 2 role.

PHI @ WAS - $90 I don't care that Philadelphia lost against Oakland nor that McNabb got sacked 6 times last week. Washington has officially joined the tomato cans of the NFL after last week's lost against KC. Now, the coach is not even calling the plays and many players and coaches are not happy about this. Philadelphia by 59 :)

Without further adieu, here are the 2009 Week 7 point spread picks:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BUFFALO @ CAROLINA	-7	-6.3	0.7	69%
INDIANAPOLIS @ ST LOUIS	13.5	21.5	8.0	65%
CHICAGO @ CINCINNATI	-1.5	0.9	2.4	64%
ARIZONA @ NY GIANTS	-7	3.4	10.4	64%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	7	9.3	2.3	63%
MINNESOTA @ PITTSBURGH	-4	2.1	6.1	56%
SAN FRANCISCO @ HOUSTON	-3	-7.8	-4.8	54%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY	5	3.0	-2.0	48%
NY JETS @ OAKLAND	6	3.9	-2.1	48%
ATLANTA @ DALLAS	-4	3.8	7.8	46%
GREEN BAY @ CLEVELAND	7	13.3	6.3	43%
NEW ENGLAND - TAMPA BAY	15	7.3	-7.7	43%
NEW ORLEANS @ MIAMI	6.5	7.2	0.7	42%

Unbelievable Results - Thanks to You

2009-10-20T12:58:00.006-05:00

All your support, comments, and encouragements has led NFLpickles to a remarkable start in 2009. Last year, when the picks were not working out even when we had success in 2007, you the readers kept encouraging me to continue, thank you. Keep up your comments and opinions as they are highly valued and provide a great way for others to judge sentiment on various NFL picks. This summarizes the success of NFLpickles' free NFL picks against the point spread this year:

5 straight winning weeks
73% success rate against the point spread
50% return on investment

I have a huge work project to finish so I expect the week 7 NFL picks to come out late Thursday or Friday. Again, thanks for your support.

Sincerely,

Jaime
admin@nflpickles.com

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6

2009-10-13T23:04:00.012-05:00

Pick 1: New England -9 + $90.91
Pick 2: Philadelphia -14 -$100
Pick 3: Denver +4 + $90.91

Should we keep banking on weak teams? Today I read an article (that I couldn't find on the Chicago Reader website) about how 2009 is geared towards having the most number of teams with less than 3 wins for the season. In marketing, we would classify NFL teams into 3 buckets: great, average, terrible. Michael Lombardi wrote an interesting article on this phenomenon of a huge disparity between best and worst NFL teams.

In a market, these obvious opportunities shouldn't exist right? Only those that believe in the efficient market hypothesis would agree. The market should at least adjust. This week the Rams are a 14 point underdog, while last week it was 10 points. For Oakland, they are a 14 point underdog at home while they were 16 point last week, considering home field, market adjusted one point (assuming its opponents on both weeks belong to the above average group).

The question is: has the market adjusted enough? Has it made adjustments to all below average teams? Yes and no as my NFL week 6 picks show.

"Forecasting is very difficult, especially if it's about the future", but that will not stop us finding 'under priced' games.

Tennessee @ New England $100 - Tennessee is having quarterback insecurities. Its defense is suffering. The Patriots are returning to their old selves (except for last week's lesson with Denver). Randy Moss did not practice this week, but apparently not due to any injuries. No serious injuries leads to our first pick, the Patriots demolish the Titans at home.

Philadelphia @ Oakland $100 - The Eagles can score and they've shown it even without Westbrook. Oakland had a good game at home their first week against the Chargers, but that is all I've seen. Eagles by more that 3 TDs.

Denver @ San Diego $100 - I hated on Denver on last week's post comments. Afterwords, I read an article on Sports Illustrated about their defense, their 25 new players, and how Orton fits well with their play. This week, the model picks Denver and I'm going with it. By the way, Denver is 1 of 3 teams that is perfect against the spread. See the Point Spread Standings.

At the current bankroll, 20% of it gets us at $100 per game for this week. Good luck!

Other games to stay away:
Pittsburgh cannot run the ball without Parker and has yet to beat a team this year by more than 10 (and they even played Detroit). Cutler and Chicago's running game have to be proven before I feel comfortable with their pick. Rams may stand no chance in this game, but I still can't figure out in which slot does Jacksonville belong to after last week's debacle in Seattle.

Without further adieu, here are the 2009 Week 6 point spread predictions:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND	-9	-12.6	-3.6	63%
PHILADELPHIA @ OAKLAND	14	22.2	8.2	61%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH	-14	-15.1	-1.1	59%
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA	-3	2.4	5.4	57%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO	-4	3.0	7.0	57%
KANSAS CITY @ WASHINGTON	-6.5	-9.8	-3.3	56%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	-9.5	-11.0	-1.5	54%
BALTIMORE @ MINNESOTA	-3	1.0	4.0	54%
HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI	-4.5	-3.8	0.7	53%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE	-3	7.5	10.5	50%
NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS	-3	-4.5	-1.5	47%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	-13.5	-10.0	3.5	44%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	3.5	8.6	5.1	43%
ST LOUIS @ JACKSONVILLE	-10	-16.7	-6.7	41%

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 5

2009-10-07T00:42:00.013-05:00

Pick 1: Arizona -5.5 + $59.09
Pick 2: Minnesota -9.5 (-110) + $77.27
Pick 3: NY Giants -16 (-110) + $50
Pick 4: Indianapolis -3.5 + $63.64

Crunching the numbers is the easy part, making the pick is the hard part. But "Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say". They do not say who will cover, but who has the most chance to cover.

For this week we have 4 NFL favorites undermined by their power to destroy their weak opponent. Distributing $275 on the four games which is approximately 23% of the bankroll, putting more weight on the Vikings and Indianapolis game.

CIN @ BAL - Baltimore's linebacker Brendon Ayanbadejo has been put on the injured list. I'm staying away from this game, won't regret it regardless of what happens.

MIN @ STL $85 - Should we keep banking on the Rams losing streak, why not? There is no respect for the Vikings with a spread of 9.5 or even 10. After Monday Night's game, Favre and Peterson could be a killer combination if both are on. The Viking defense is not bad either.

HOU @ ARI $65 - I smell 'underratedness' for the NFC champs. Coming out of a bye week and a slow start, the Cardinals come to their senses and have a comfortable win at home.

OAK @ NYG $55 - I admit I almost backed out of this one because of the 16 point spread. The confidence is high and the prediction is two points above spread. The Giants can score and lead the league in the least yds allowed per game.

IND @ TEN $70 - Tennessee's defense will not be able to stop red hot Manning.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE	-8.5	-9.0	-0.5	65%
MINNESOTA @ ST LOUIS	9.5	11.4	1.9	63%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	3.5	10.0	6.5	61%
HOUSTON @ ARIZONA	-5.5	-9.0	-3.5	59%
OAKLAND @ NY GIANTS	-16	-18.8	-2.8	57%
JACKSONVILLE @ SEATTLE	3	-3.6	-6.6	54%
PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT	10.5	15.0	4.5	53%
DALLAS @ KANSAS CITY	8.5	5.6	-6.1	51%
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-2.5	-2.9	-0.4	50%
WASHINGTON @ CAROLINA	-3.5	7.8	11.3	50%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO	-6	-2.5	3.5	50%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER	3	0.0	-3.0	48%
TAMPA BAY @ PHILADELPHIA	-15	-22.0	-7.0	46%
NY JETS @ MIAMI	2	-9.2	-11.2	40%

ATS Standings 2009

2009-10-07T00:14:00.033-05:00

NFL Team standings against the point spread.
Updated: 1/06/2010

Team	W	L	T	Pct
GREEN BAY	11	4	1	73.3%
SAN FRANCISCO	9	4	3	69.2%
ATLANTA	11	5	0	68.8%
CLEVELAND	10	6	0	62.5%
INDIANAPOLIS	10	6	0	62.5%
MINNESOTA	9	6	1	60.0%
CAROLINA	9	7	0	56.3%
DALLAS	9	7	0	56.3%
DENVER	9	7	0	56.3%
NY JETS	9	7	0	56.3%
PHILADELPHIA	9	7	0	56.3%
ARIZONA	8	7	1	53.3%
BALTIMORE	8	7	1	53.3%
BUFFALO	8	7	1	53.3%
NEW ENGLAND	8	7	1	53.3%
SAN DIEGO	8	7	1	53.3%
MIAMI	8	8	0	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS	8	8	0	50.0%
OAKLAND	8	8	0	50.0%
HOUSTON	7	8	1	46.7%
CINCINNATI	7	9	0	43.8%
KANSAS CITY	7	9	0	43.8%
NY GIANTS	7	9	0	43.8%
ST LOUIS	7	9	0	43.8%
TENNESSEE	6	9	1	40.0%
WASHINGTON	6	9	1	40.0%
CHICAGO	6	10	0	37.5%
SEATTLE	6	10	0	37.5%
TAMPA BAY	6	10	0	37.5%
PITTSBURGH	5	10	1	33.3%
JACKSONVILLE	5	11	0	31.3%
DETROIT	4	10	2	28.6%

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

2009-09-30T10:48:00.014-05:00

Pick 1: Baltimore +1.5 (-105) -$50
Pick 2: NY Giants -9 (-100) + $50
Pick 3: Minnesota -3.5 (-105) + $47.62
Pick 4: Chicago -10 (-105) + $47.62
Pick 5: Cincinnati -5.5 (-105) -$50

3 visiting teams, 2 home teams, 1 underdog. Putting $45 on each game. Why $45? Kelly's formula suggests using 18% of the bank roll =~ $225, divided by 5 = $45.

In God we trust. All others must bring data. Large amounts of it! I use 15 years of NFL Vegas lines data to come up with data-driven point spread predictions, picks and tallies of the success of this algorithmic betting strategy. So far so good this year, lets hope we keep up the good work here at NFLpickles. Enough said, here is a brief description of the picks followed by our traditional table containing point spread picks, predictions, and THE confidence measure.

Baltimore +1.5 @ New England - Baltimore seems to be getting better every week, while the Patriots are very shaky. With a weak performance against both the Bills and the Jets, the Ravens are yet to be their biggest challenge. Baltimore comfortably wins with big offense coming from 1-2-3 punch Flacco, Rice, and Mcgahee.

NY Giants -9 @ Kansas City - A single digit line on this game? Not under my watch. If Detroit, Tampa Bay, or KC are playing a playoff contender and the line is not in double digits, I'm all over it like a donkey on a waffle.

Green Bay @ Minnesota -3.5 - Favre better than anyone, will read GB defensive plays and capitalize on his knowledge of the Packers' strategy. Big win in SF gives them momentum. Although both teams have had weak schedules so far, I see the Vikings winning by at least 7.

Detroit @ Chicago -10 - Another Bears pick? You might ask. Yes, but I don't feel comfortable. Lets face it, Detroit will lose this game. There is very little chance that they will come out from a 19-game losing streak and win 2 in a row. But will they lose by more than 10? Prediction says 11.5 so its close, but over the 10-point line. I'm not so worried about Forte's injury since he hasn't done much this year and Adrian Peterson could end up being a better RB.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland - 5.5?! Did I not include Cleveland in the list of teams that should get double digit lines? Cleveland is a mess, now Anderson will be starting at QB. The Bengals are working better as a team as seen when they beat Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

San Diego @ Pittsburgh - Staying away from this one until more is known about LT and Shawne Merriman.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND	-1.5	8.1	9.6	65%
NY GIANTS @ KANSAS CITY	9	16.8	7.8	60%
SAN DIEGO @ PITTSBURGH	-6.5	-1.1	5.4	58%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA	-3.5	-6.8	-3.3	58%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO	-10	-11.6	-1.6	57%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND	5.5	12.4	6.9	56%
NY JETS @ NEW ORLEANS	-7	-3.3	3.7	52%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON	-7	-8.9	-1.9	51%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI	2	-3.9	-5.9	50%
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON	-9	-6.9	2.1	50%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE	3	4.6	1.6	47%
DALLAS @ DENVER	3	4.5	1.5	47%
SEATTLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-9	-5.7	3.3	46%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO	-9.5	-14.7	-5.2	42%

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 3

2009-09-24T00:04:00.011-05:00

Just took out KC because it has been taken off the lines in most places, replaced with Pittsburgh to win by more than 4 on the road.

Pick 1: San Francisco +6.5 +$45.45
Pick 2: New Orleans -6 +$45.45
Pick 3: Chicago -2.5 +$45.45
Pick 4: ~~Kansas City~~ OFF
Pick 4: Pittsburgh -4 -$50

4 visiting teams, putting $50 on each game. Why $50? Kelly's formula suggests using 18% of the bank roll =~ $200, divided by 4 = $50.

I crunch the numbers and you get the picks. For those of you unfamiliar with my NFL picks table, it is very simple. Negative numbers are for the home team and positive numbers for the visiting team. A Vegas line of -6.5 on the SF @ MIN game implies the Vikings are favorite by six and a half points. Similarly for the prediction/estimate. For that same game prediction is for SF to win by ~6 points.

The Confidence percentage is a soon to be patented percentage of confidence that a pick is correct. Usually, games with confidence above 58% get special attention. If a game has no major injuries or extraneous situations, picks are made for these games. Can I assume that a Confidence under 50% would be a Confidence Rate of over 50% for the opponent? Yes, but be very careful with these predictions. This is where experience and knowledge should be used to give the green light for the pick. But you don't have to worry, I'll tell you exactly which are NFLpickles NFL picks of the week:

San Francisco @ Minnesota - The battle of the running backs! Minnesota might win, but it will be a close game.
New Orleans @ Buffalo - New Orleans wins by 10 and the way they've been playing, I don't think Buffalo can stop them. I like riding this streak trend. Buffalo is coming off a home win against Tampa Bay, woopdeedeedoo.
Chicago @ Seattle - My first reverse pick of the year. Notice the prediction is for Seattle to win by 7, but the Confidence is at 35%. Hasselbeck is beat up and Seattle may be overrated because of their 28 point win on week 1. Did I mention that was against the Rams? Cutler will finally unveil what he's made off.
~~Kansas City~~ @ Philadelphia -

Staying away from: Dallas (no Barber), Washington (weaker team, could this be Detroit's week to finally end the 19-game losing streak?), Tampa Bay (another reverse pick, Tampa Bay sucks way to much for me to put money on them, especially on a reverse pick).

Below the complete table of NFL lines, spread picks, and point spread predictions for week 3, great picking!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ MINNESOTA	-6.5	5.5	12.0	64%
NEW ORLEANS @ BUFFALO	6	9.6	3.6	59%
CAROLINA @ DALLAS	-8.5	-11.3	-2.8	58%
WASHINGTON @ DETROIT	6.5	20.4	13.9	57%
ATLANTA @ NEW ENGLAND	-4	2.2	6.2	55%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI	4	20.2	16.2	54%
GREEN BAY @ ST LOUIS	6.5	2.5	4.0	50%
TENNESSEE @ NY JETS	-3	-4.7	-1.7	47%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-3.5	-3.3	0.2	47%
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO	-5.5	-1.3	4.2	44%
DENVER @ OAKLAND	1.5	7.9	6.4	43%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE	-13	-21.9	-8.9	43%
~~KANSAS CITY~~ @ PHILADELPHIA	-9.5	-18.4	-8.9	41%
INDIANAPOLIS @ ARIZONA	-2.5	-10.7	-8.2	37%
CHICAGO @ SEATTLE	2.5	-7.4	-9.9	35%
NY GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY	6.5	15.3	8.8	29%

NFLpickles on Twitter

2009-09-23T15:50:00.002-05:00

Many of my readers never know when I will be posting NFL picks. Now you can find out by following NFLpickles on Twitter. I'll be updating you on the status of the picks and give you the link to the weekly picks. If I find anything interesting regarding NFL point spread picks on the internet, I'll let you know as well.

2009 NFL Spread Picks Week 2

2009-09-18T01:51:00.017-05:00

NFL Week 2 spread/line picks:
Pick 1: San Francisco -1.5 +$47.62
Pick 2: Oakland +3 +$47.62

I'll do the stats you get the picks. You could disagree with me. Post a comment and tell me why? Usually when someone disagrees with me I get a correct pick.

Last week's pick was no good. I live in Chicago, and adviced that I was being biased putting my overly excited emotions about Cutler on the line. Oh boy, but how fast things change. No Urlacher for the rest of the season! Who is going to lead that defense? The Steelers also lost a key player in Polamalu so would you say these cancel each other out?

Look at the table of predictions below, it is predicting PIT by 26! That estimate is carrying heavy weight on the Steelers last few games including last year's playoffs and Super Bowl. Too many variables going on, need more data, stay away. Hopefully the model is wrong and the Bears win their first regular season game.

The one game I am excited and surprised at the spread is the San Francisco game. San Fran is my top pick for the week, although I will suggest one more (even though I shouldn't this early in the season). Playing at home, a young and eager squad will stop stop Hasselbeck, LT, and the rest of the oldies in Seattle. Plus they won by 28 last week, but they played a weak team. Decreasing the amount of the bet from Kelly's formula since we are only on week 2, the wager is again $50(-105).

Oakland looked well Monday Night. They should have won the game and they know it. The prediction is Oakland wins by 5 and they're underdogs by 3. A wager of $50(-105) for this game as well is entered.

The Tennessee/Houston game is better to stay away for now. Tennessee's defense is yet to be tested, Houston could be a stronger team this season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Cover Pct
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	-1.5	-5.3	-3.8	66%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	-6.5	-7.8	-1.3	58%
ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON	-9.5	-11.1	-1.6	57%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY	-3	5.6	8.6	57%
PITTSBURGH @ CHICAGO	3	26.2	23.2	54%
CLEVELAND @ DENVER	-3	-9.8	-6.8	54%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA	-6	-9.7	-3.7	53%
ARIZONA @ JACKSONVILLE	-3	18.0	21.0	50%
BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO	-3	15.5	18.5	50%
CINCINNATI @ GREEN BAY	-9	6.8	15.8	50%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS	-3	-5.3	-2.3	47%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS	3.5	4.7	1.2	46%
INDIANAPOLIS @ MIAMI	3	-1.0	-4.0	44%
NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA	0	-8.8	-8.8	41%
TAMPA BAY @ BUFFALO	-5	6.3	11.3	39%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT	10	18.6	8.6	37%

Good vibes!