Statistics Beats the NFL Point Spread

2011 Super Bowl Pick

2012-01-26T21:01:00.004-06:00

Super Bowl Pick: New England -3

Thank you for the encouragement, persistence, and belief. This is the beauty of the internet. If I was alone at home doing this, I probably would've stopped but your motivation keeps me going. Ok I promised I wouldn't cry.

Seriously, I know I've had my ups and downs but the last two years have been a downer, especially this one. I sure hope it is like you say, just part of the whole process and not a trend. It reminds me a bit about the global warming debate.

In 2007, the Giants were underdogs by 11.5. In this post, we picked the Giants and of course were correct. This year is a bit different. The Patriots don't have a perfect record and the spread is only 3. Without looking at the spread, I thought that I didn't think Tom Brady was going to let this one escape again. There isn't pressure to be perfect, but revenge. I think the Patriots want it more. I'm glad the predictions favor this feeling too, but barely. Patriots by 7.

Oh and if you are playing Super Bowl squares in draft mode, check this post. It's a bit old, but I don't think the probabilities have changed much.

If you haven't seen it, here is the preview commercial for Volkswagen, funniest video I've seen in a while.

This week we'll play 15% or $250 for the super bowl.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for the Super Bowl of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW YORK - NEW ENGLAND	-3	-9.6	-6.6	62.4%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 Conference Playoffs Spread Picks

2012-01-20T09:01:00.004-06:00

Pick 1: New England -7
Pick 2: San Francisco -2.5

Is anyone still paying attention to this? I sure now have lost all hope on the current model. For a second I thought that at least in the playoffs it was continuing to perform well, until last week.

For this year's conference playoff picks, the home teams prevail. I personally without using this would think that the Giants and Patriots would win and cover. Given their experience in these situations, I believe Flacco will choke and Manning will take over. But I have to stick with what the model says and believe a new team and QB will come out of the NFL to go to the Super Bowl.

This week we'll play 25% of whatever is left of the bankroll. Giving us $260 per game for a total of $520.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for the Conference playoffs of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-10	-3	65.6%
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO	-2.5	-7.4	-4.9	59.9%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 Divisional Playoff Picks

2012-01-10T09:33:00.003-06:00

Pick 1: Green Bay -8.5
Pick 2: New Orleans -3.5
Pick 3: New England -13.5
Pick 4: Baltimore -7.5

I had to wait until the playoffs to get my first winning week. Sure feels good and boy did I miss them. It even feels better that it is during the playoffs. The first week was full of excitement and am looking forward to the divisional playoffs next Saturday.

For this year's divisional playoffs nfl point spread picks, I'm surprised all four games came out significant. We're betting all favorite teams to beat the spread. Again this week, home teams are the majority with the exception of the Saints (who by the way had the best ATS record during the regular season). I wanted to stay away from the Giants/Packers game because the Giants are playing really well, but it is hard to bet against Rodgers and the gang. I like the New Orleans pick and New England (Tebow, you had a good run, it's time). The Baltimore/Houston game is going to be all defense and I'm uncertain if they can clear 7.5 points but we'll see.

This week again we'll play 25% of bankroll. Giving us $155 per game for a total of $620 (that's $110 more than last week).

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for the Divisional playoffs of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY	-8.5	-13.7	-5.2	65.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO	3.5	7	3.5	64.5%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND	-13.5	-17	-3.5	63.0%
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE	-7.5	-10	-2.5	59.3%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 Wildcard Playoffs Picks

2012-01-05T10:38:00.003-06:00

Pick 1: Denver +8.5
Pick 2: Houston -3
Pick 3: Giants -3

It's the playoffs! We've had the worst regular season in my 4 years of doing this live. Playoffs usually are good for us so I'm hoping this year won't be different.

For this year's wildcard playoffs nfl point spread picks, we have 3 home teams. First, Denver. I never bought into the Tebow fanfare when they won 5 in a row. Pittsburgh is very dangerous in the playoffs, but I think they'll give Steelers a run for their money. Houston's defense should be able to win this game comfortably. Finally, another experienced playoff team and Eli Manning will take care of the Falcons.

This week and for the rest of the playoffs, we'll play 25% of bankroll. Giving us $170 per game for a total of $510.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for the Wildcard playoffs of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER	8.5	-2.0	-10.5	60.0%
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON	-3	-4.9	-1.9	58.3%
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS	-3	-5	-2	57.4%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS	-10.5	-9.8	0.7	50.6%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 17

2011-12-30T20:26:00.002-06:00

No Picks this Week

Picks and bets are never donefor week 17. It's always a crazy week. As much as I would like to try to make up for lost ground, I'll keep my composure and save the energy for the playoffs. Still, my computer NFL spread picks I always post and are listed below. Happy new year every one!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-8.5	-2.4	6.1	66.7%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA	-1.5	3.2	4.7	63.3%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS	-3	1.5	4.5	58.5%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	-3	0.9	3.9	58.5%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND	-10	-7.5	2.5	54.4%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-11	-14	-3	53.3%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND	-3	3	6	52.9%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	10.5	18.5	8.0	52.0%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER	-3	-4.9	-1.9	51.3%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	-7.5	-14.1	-6.6	51.1%
NY JETS @ MIAMI	-3	-5	-2	50.4%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	3	-10.1	-13.1	50.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	-3.5	-3	.5	50.4%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI	2	-1	0.8	50.3%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON	2	7	5	50.1%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND	7	10	-3.0	50.0%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16

2011-12-20T16:09:00.003-06:00

Pick 1: Jets -3
Pick 2: 49ers -2 PUSH
Pick 3: Bengals -4.5

For the last week of the season, we post our picks. We then come back for the playoffs. Ideally, we have a good week this week to come to the playoffs with a sniff of hope.

This week we'll stay at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $115 per game for a total of $345.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY GIANTS @ NY JETS	-3	-9.5	-6.5	72.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE	2	4.5	2.5	65.3%
ARIZONA @ CINCINNATI	-4.5	-7	-3.5	64.3%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON	-6	-7.6	-1.6	58.0%
DENVER @ BUFFALO	3	0.5	-2.5	54.5%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS	6	14.5	8.5	52.9%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND	-10	-15.6	-5.6	52.9%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE	-8	-9.5	-1.5	52.0%
ST LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH	-13	-15.2	-2.2	51.9%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY	-1.5	3.3	4.8	51.3%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY	-12	-11.3	0.7	50.6%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE	-14	-14.6	-0.6	50.4%
SAN DIEGO @ DETROIT	-2.5	-3.1	-0.6	49.9%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	-3	-7.0	-4.0	49.0%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-7	-10	-3	48.3%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

2011-12-17T22:43:00.004-06:00

Pick 1: Green Bay -13.5
Pick 2: Cincinnati -7 PUSH
Pick 3: Tennessee -6.5
Pick 3: Detroit -1 PUSH

This week four favorite teams on the road are picked. Sorry for the late post, almost didn't get it in. Glad I did. I'm banking this week on these strong teams beating the crap out of these home teams that have no chance to be in the playoffs.

This week we'll stay at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $100 per game for a total of $400.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 15 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ KANSAS CITY	13.5	21.0	7.5	60.4%
CINCINNATI @ ST LOUIS	7	14.4	7.4	59.5%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	6.5	13.6	7.1	58.5%
DETROIT @ OAKLAND	1	7	6	58.3%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	-6.5	-4.5	2.0	55.6%
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA	7.5	11.5	4.0	52.0%
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO	-3.5	-5.1	-1.6	52.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER	7.5	4.5	-3.0	52.0%
NY JETS @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	4.4	7.4	51.3%
BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO	2.5	3.9	1.4	50.7%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	-1.5	-9.6	-8.1	50.1%
CLEVELAND @ ARIZONA	-6.5	-6.0	0.5	50.1%
PITTSBURGH @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3	3	6	50%
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON	-6	-9.9	-3.9	49.5%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

2011-12-10T10:51:00.005-06:00

Pick 1: New Orleans -3.5
Pick 2: St Louis +9.5
Pick 3: San Francisco -4
Pick 4: Houston +3

As we continue to sink this ship, I think less about these picks and whether they are good or not. The only thing I'm thinking about is what can I learn this year that I would be able to apply statistically into the algorithm.

If I think about these picks, I would probably stay away from Houston because all the injuries and St Louis because they've covered very few times this year. But most times that I say things like that the opposite happens. We'll stick with these 4 visiting teams and bet they will all win big and give us, believe it or not, our first winning week.

This week we'll up at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $100 per game for a total of $400.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 14 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ORLEANS @ TENNESSEE	3.5	7	3.5	59.9%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE	-9.5	-8	1.5	58.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA	4	7.6	3.6	58.3%
HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI	-3	2.3	5.3	58.1%
OAKLAND @ GREEN BAY	-11.5	-8.2	3.3	56.5%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT	-10	-14	-4	54.4%
KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS	-10.5	-16	-5.5	54.4%
TAMPA BAY @ JACKSONVILLE	2.5	-3	-5.5	53.9%
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI	-3	-5	-2	52.8%
CHICAGO @ DENVER	-3.5	-6	-2.5	52.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ WASHINGTON	8	12.5	4.5	52.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE	-16.5	-18.7	-2.2	51.9%
BUFFALO @ SAN DIEGO	-7	0.3	7.3	51.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA	3	4.9	1.9	50.0%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS	-3.5	3	6.5	49.0%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 13

2011-12-01T15:26:00.004-06:00

Pick 1: Buffalo -1.5
Pick 2: Dallas -4.5
Pick 3: NY Jets -3

I am very disappointed with the results this year. Although a friend told me there is still a lot of football left, and he's right, by week 13 I should've seen signs of success. In other years, we were already up in the 20-30% ROI range. The model might need to be revisited in the off-season, but at this point all I can do is sit back and hope for a great success in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll. Giving us $145 per game for a total of $435.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 13 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO	-1.5	-3.2	-1.7	60.0%
DALLAS @ ARIZONA	4.5	7.9	3.4	58.7%
NY JETS @ WASHINGTON	3	7.1	4.1	58.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE	3	0.9	-2.1	52.5%
SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE	3	1.7	-1.3	52.5%
OAKLAND @ MIAMI	-3	8.2	11.2	52.3%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	-3	-4.9	-1.9	52.0%
KANSAS CITY @ CHICAGO	-7	-9.3	-2.3	52.0%
DENVER @ MINNESOTA	-1.5	0.6	2.1	52.0%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS	-9	-7.1	1.9	51.9%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	-6.5	4.5	11.0	51.8%
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS	6.5	17.0	10.5	51.4%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO	-13	-10	3	50.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND	-20	-28.9	-8.9	49.5%
ATLANTA @ HOUSTON	2.5	5	2.5	49.3%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND	6.5	10	3.5	47.0%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12

2011-11-22T21:07:00.004-06:00

Pick 1: Detroit +6
Pick 2: Miami +7
Pick 3: San Francisco +3
Pick 3: Atlanta -9.5

This blows. Down 20% starting the forth quarter, hail mary? Noooo, be smart. One perfect week and this can turn around in a hurry. As always, I like my picks this week so that's probably a bad thing. I'm glad pick #1 will be watched while eating Turkey. Miami is on a roll, any metrics for momentum? I feel I'm jumping the SF boat a bit too late. They are perfect against the spread (see Standings) so that would have to continue this streak, but I like that they are underdogs. Finally, the Atlanta picks is one they should cover and finish strong, MIN is the worst team in the league.

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll. Giving us $110 per game for a total of $440.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 12 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	6	2.8	-3.2	59.6%
MIAMI @ DALLAS	-7	-4	3	59.1%
SAN FRANCISCO @ BALTIMORE	-3	7.1	10.1	58.5%
MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA	-9.5	-12.6	-3.1	58.4%
NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS	-7	-14.7	-7.7	52.6%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY	10.5	6.5	-4.0	52.5%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	-8	-6	2	51.4%
WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE	-4	-6.2	-2.2	51.4%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI	-7.5	-9.8	-2.3	51.0%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	3	8.6	5.6	50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ PHILADELPHIA	3	10.0	7.0	50.0%
CAROLINA @ INDIANAPOLIS	3.5	9.1	5.6	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ TENNESSEE	-3	-5	-2	49.5%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS	-3	-5	-2	49.0%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO	-6.5	-2.1	4.4	48.3%
CHICAGO @ OAKLAND	-5	-4.1	0.9	NA

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 11

2011-11-16T08:22:00.005-06:00

Pick 1: NY Giants -4.5
Pick 2: Buffalo +2
Pick 3: Seattle +2

Although all picks last week went for a whopping 66.7%, the confidence picks still struggled at 50%. Last week was the first week of the second half and this is where the picks should really start going strong. That 66% is a small sign of improvement, but the confidence picks will need to pick up the slack.

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll (and stay there for the next week). Giving us $155 per game for a total of $465.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 11 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	-4.5	-7	-2.5	62.5%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI	-2	8.1	10.1	58.5%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS	-2	5.7	7.7	58.2%
NY JETS @ DENVER	6	9	3	56.9%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE	-7	-10	-3	56.8%
TENNESSEE @ ATLANTA	-6	-3.2	2.8	55.6%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	7.5	12.4	4.9	52.1%
TAMPA BAY @ GREEN BAY	-14	-22	-8	52.0%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-9.5	-12.3	-2.8	51.0%
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND	-15	-22	-7	50.8%
OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA	1	5.4	4.4	50.7%
SAN DIEGO @ CHICAGO	-3.5	-1	2.5	50.6%
CAROLINA @ DETROIT	-7	-8.1	-1.1	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND	1	-3	-4	49.0%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10

2011-11-11T14:34:00.004-06:00

Pick 1: Buffalo +5.5
Pick 2: Tennessee +3.5
Pick 3: Washington +4
Pick 4: Green Bay -13.5

Last week the picks went 2-3. No, I have not given up, never! It's been crazy traveling and I missed the boat on the Thursday game. Thanks to all for the encouragement. Look for some serious ROI starting now and throughout the playoffs. We have a lot of ground to catch up. This does not mean we're going to put all the eggs in one basket though. We continue to use a percentage of bankroll for each week, minimizing the chance of bankruptcy while optimizing ROI. Go Bears!

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll (and stay there for the next 2 weeks). Giving us $120 per game for a total of $480.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 10 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BUFFALO @ DALLAS	-5.5	3	8.5	72.4%
TENNESSEE @ CAROLINA	-3.5	3	6.5	62.0%
WASHINGTON @ MIAMI	-4	5.2	9.2	59.1%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-13.5	-16.9	-3.4	58.9%
BALTIMORE @ SEATTLE	6.5	14.3	7.8	56.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	3	5	-4.3	54.6%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS	-1.5	2	3.5	52.0%
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA	-14	-10.1	-0.1	51.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA	0	-2.0	-2.0	50.9%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY	-3	2	-1	50.3%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO	-3	-2	1	50.3%
HOUSTON @ TAMPA BAY	3	5	2	50.3%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI	3	6	3	49.3%
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3.5	-13.2	-9.7	49.3%
ST LOUIS @ CLEVELAND	-2.5	-1	1.5	48.3%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 9

2011-11-01T22:34:00.003-05:00

Pick 1: Washington +3.5
Pick 2: Chicago +8
Pick 3: Tennessee -3
Pick 4: Arizona -3.5
Pick 5: San Diego +5.5

Last week the picks went 3-2. We recouped some ground, but still are far behind. I'm considering different variations of picks, waiting until later weeks for official picks, and other strategies but will not implement until back-tested during the off-season. For now, lets stick with this and hope for similar late week success as we've had in previous years.

This week we'll increase to 18% of bankroll (and stay there for the next 3 weeks). Giving us $100 per game for a total of $500.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 9 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ WASHINGTON	3.5	-1	-4.5	61.6%
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA	-8	-2.8	5.2	59.5%
CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE	-3	-5	-2	58.3%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA	-3.5	-6	-2.5	58.3%
GREEN BAY @ SAN DIEGO	5.5	3	-2.5	58.1%
MIAMI @ KANSAS CITY	-4.5	-7	-2.5	56.1%
NY GIANTS @ NEW ENGLAND	-8.5	-5	3.5	55.5%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-3	-6	-3	52.7%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO	-1.5	-3	-0.2	52.0%
SEATTLE @ DALLAS	-11.5	-14.0	-2.5	51.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-8	-10	-2	50.6%
CLEVELAND @ HOUSTON	-11	-9.5	1.5	50.1%
DENVER @ OAKLAND	-8	-9.4	-1.4	50.0%
ATLANTA @ INDIANAPOLIS	7	10	3	50.0%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8

2011-10-26T21:03:00.004-05:00

Pick 1: St. Louis +13.5
Pick 2: New England -3
Pick 3: Detroit -3
Pick 4: Houston -9.5
Pick 5: Baltimore -13

Last week the picks went 0-4. Things went as bad as they could go. This week we'll hopefully make up some ground. I really have nothing else to say than just, this is not a get rich quick thing, but rather a long term investment hoping that year over year we keep increasing ROI.

This week we'll stay at 16% of bankroll. Giving us $85 per game for a total of $425.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 8 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS	13.5	12.6	-0.9	72.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH	3	7.5	4.5	71.2%
DETROIT @ DENVER	3	6.3	3.3	66.2%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-9.5	-11.7	-2.2	62.2%
ARIZONA @ BALTIMORE	-13	-24.8	-11.8	59.2%
MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA	-3.5	3.1	6.6	55.0%
CINCINNATI @ SEATTLE	3	3.5	0.5	53.6%
BUFFALO @ WASHINGTON	6	10	4	50.4%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY	3.5	7	3.5	50.3%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA	-3.5	-1.6	1.9	50.0%
MIAMI @ NY GIANTS	-10	-14	-4	49.1%
CLEVELAND @ SAN FRANCISCO	-8.5	-5	3.5	48.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	-8.5	-3	5.5	47.8%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 7

2011-10-18T21:27:00.009-05:00

Updated: Oct 20: removed Houston for injuries, added BAL and GB similar reasons.
~~Pick 1:~~ ~~Houston +3~~
Pick 1: Indianapolis +14
Pick 2: Cleveland -3 PUSH
Pick 3: Washington +2.5
Pick 4: Baltimore -7.5
Pick 5: Green Bay -8.5

Last week the picks went 2-2 and the week before that 3-2, not good, but at least better than past seasons for this time. Staying afloat and winning a bit is good for this early in the season with hopes that by the end of the season, as its happened in previous years, the models pick up some good inefficiencies. It won't hurt though to have a great week this week 7. Lets make it happen.

This week we'll increment slightly to 16% of bankroll. Giving us approximately (rounded) ~~$125~~ $100 per game for a total of $500.

I personally would've picked Green Bay again this week. Best football team right now, and last week Minnesota took a beating literally. Every bet I've made this year for Houston has lost so not too excited about my top pick, prove me wrong Texans. I like Cleveland and Baltimore, but the Ravens didn't make the cut (but now they do). Good luck and go Bears!

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 7 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	-3	2.1	5.1	~~62.9%~~
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ORLEANS	-14	-5.6	8.4	62.5%
SEATTLE @ CLEVELAND	-3	-6.1	-3.1	59.8%
WASHINGTON @ CAROLINA	-2.5	11.8	14.3	58.4%
BALTIMORE @ JACKSONVILLE	7.5	11.0	3.5	56.0%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA	8.5	11.5	3.0	55.0%
PITTSBURGH @ ARIZONA	3.5	12.3	8.8	51.0%
ST LOUIS @ DALLAS	-13	-8.5	4.5	50.1%
ATLANTA @ DETROIT	-3.5	-1.0	2.5	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	-3.5	-5	-1.5	50.0%
DENVER @ MIAMI	-2	-4.3	-2.3	50.0%
CHICAGO - TAMPA BAY	1	-2.2	-3.2	50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ NY JETS	2	5	3	49.0%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6

2011-10-11T19:33:00.003-05:00

Pick 1: Atlanta -4
Pick 2: New England -7
Pick 3: Detroit -4.5
Pick 4: Jacksonville +12

UPDATE: Since I forgot to include the wager, I just assumed 15% bankroll as last week.

No time to talk this week, pure results:

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 6 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA	-4	-15.7	-11.7	68.7%
DALLAS @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-17.7	-10.7	62.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DETROIT	-4.5	-6.3	-1.8	60.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ PITTSBURGH	-12	-10.1	1.9	59.2%
ST LOUIS @ GREEN BAY	-15	-18.9	-3.9	56.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY	4.5	7	2.5	55.7%
MIAMI @ NY JETS	-7	-10.0	-3.0	55.3%
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE	-7.5	-9.9	-2.4	54.3%
CLEVELAND @ OAKLAND	-6	-11.3	-5.3	51.1%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	1	-4.3	-5.3	50.9%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	-3	-6	-3	50.5%
BUFFALO @ NY GIANTS	-3.5	3	6.5	50.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI	-7	-10	-3	49.5%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Picks Week 5

2011-10-07T01:20:00.006-05:00

Pick 1: San Diego -4
Pick 2: Kansas City +2
Pick 3: Cincinnati +2
Pick 4: Houston -5.5
Pick 5: Tampa Bay +3

Are you ready for the "Beginning" of the season? This week NFLpickles picks become official.

Why is NFLpickles awesome? I've been doing this since 2007 and posted all results here for you to track. Unlike other handicappers out there, you will see when I do well and when we don't. If I do well and you use my picks, we both do well.

The other important strategic piece is how the money is handled. It optimizes gain and reduces risk for bankruptcy. As last year, we continue using Kelly's Formula to compute the percentage of the bankroll to use each week. The result for this week was 17%, but to play a bit conservatively during this first few weeks of betting, we'll bring it down to 15% of bankroll(this year NFL Pickles bankroll starts at $3,000). $450/5=$90 per game.

This is why last year we ended up only at 52% ATS, but still came out with almost 20% ROI. Not a great year, but good enough.

This year I won't be able to comment much and dig deeper in each game. Work has taken over, but at least I have found time in the middle of the night to run the models and update the blog just before Sunday. For those wondering, I did not make any changes to the algorithm during the off-season. Let's crush it this year.

As always, your comments and picks are very valuable. Please comment or let me know if there is key injury in one of the game I chose, because although I check the NFL injury report every week, I could've missed something.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 5 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	4	10	6	64.4%
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS	-2	3	5	59.5%
CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE	-2	3	5	59.1%
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON	-5.5	-9	3.5	58.8%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3	0.5	3.5	58.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	6.5	15.2	8.7	56.5%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT	-5	-3	2	55.6%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND	-9	-14.4	-5.4	54.8%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA	6	10	4	54.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ BUFFALO	3	3.9	0.9	51.9%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA	-2.5	-7	-4.5	51.4%
TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH	-3	-6.5	-3.5	50.7%
SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS	-10	-17.4	-7.4	37.9%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

2011-09-29T14:10:00.002-05:00

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went 1-2 and overall the picks were at a mere 23% ATS and 47% straight up. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. Here are NFLpickles' week 4 picks:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY	1.5	-6.5	-8.0	62.0%
PITTSBURGH @ HOUSTON	-4	3	7	60.9%
DENVER @ GREEN BAY	-13	-17.5	-4.5	60.5%
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE	4.5	14.6	10.1	59.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ OAKLAND	4.5	10.3	5.8	59.6%
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA	-7	-8.0	-1.0	55.1%
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO	-7	-10	-3	54.1%
NY JETS @ BALTIMORE	-3.5	-1.2	2.3	53.6%
DETROIT @ DALLAS	-1	-2.3	-1.3	53.6%
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI	3	-1.7	-4.7	51.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TAMPA BAY	-10	-0.5	9.5	51.5%
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND	-1	-1.9	-0.9	50.7%
WASHINGTON @ ST LOUIS	0	6.1	6.1	50.4%
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO	-6.5	-3	3.5	50.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE	7	5.8	-1.2	50.0%
NY GIANTS @ ARIZONA	1.5	-3	-4.5	49.6%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 3

2011-09-22T21:04:00.002-05:00

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went 0-4 and overall the picks were at a mere 42% ATS and 68% straight up. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. Here are NFLpickles week 3 picks:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY	-1.5	3.0	4.5	66.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ CAROLINA	-3.5	8.3	11.8	58.9%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE	3.5	-5.7	-9.2	58.0%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	-7.5	-10	-2.5	56.4%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	3.5	1	-2.5	54.0%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	-14.5	-17	-2.5	53.5%
PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS	10.5	14	-3.5	53.3%
HOUSTON @ NEW ORLEANS	-4	-3	1	51.3%
NY JETS @ OAKLAND	3.5	10.5	7.0	51.1%
BALTIMORE @ ST LOUIS	4	8.7	4.7	50.8%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA	3.5	-0.9	-4.4	50.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO	8.5	14.4	7.9	50.5%
MIAMI @ CLEVELAND	-2.5	0.1	2.6	50.0%
DENVER @ TENNESSEE	-6.5	-7.6	-1.1	50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI	-2.5	-3.0	-0.5	49.3%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 2

2011-09-13T22:47:00.002-05:00

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went only 2-2 although overall all the picks were 68% ATS and 75% straight up, not bad. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. I'm only posting these so that you can track my progress. Use at your own risk, you've been warned. Be patient, this year we're going to crush it!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA	9.5	21.0	11.5	61.1%
CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS	-6.5	2.7	9.2	60.5%
HOUSTON @ MIAMI	3	-1.8	-4.8	58.7%
ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON	-4	-17.0	-13.0	58.1%
ST LOUIS @ NY GIANTS	-4.5	-6.5	-2.0	57.5%
CINCINNATI @ DENVER	-4.5	0.8	5.3	55.6%
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA	2.5	-1.3	-3.8	54.7%
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE	6	7	1	54.1%
DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO	3	1.7	-1.3	54.1%
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT	-8.5	-5	3.5	51.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ NY JETS	-9.5	-10.5	-1.0	50.0%
OAKLAND @ BUFFALO	-3.5	-2.0	1.5	50.0%
SEATTLE @ PITTSBURGH	-14.5	-12	2.5	50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-12	-5	49.0%
CLEVELAND @ INDIANAPOLIS	2.5	4	1.5	48.5%
TAMPA BAY @ MINNESOTA	-3	-5.0	-2	48.5%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL ATS Standings 2011

2011-09-13T20:52:00.018-05:00

Final point spread standings for the 2011 NFL regular season.

NFL Team standings against the point spread - 2011.
Updated: 1/06/2011

Team	W	L	T	Pct
NEW ORLEANS	12	4	0	75%
SAN FRANCISCO	11	4	1	73%
GREEN BAY	11	5	0	69%
HOUSTON	10	5	1	67%
SEATTLE	10	5	1	67%
OAKLAND	10	6	0	63%
MIAMI	9	6	1	60%
NEW ENGLAND	9	6	1	60%
CINCINNATI	8	6	2	57%
ARIZONA	9	7	0	56%
CAROLINA	9	7	0	56%
KANSAS CITY	9	7	0	56%
BALTIMORE	8	7	1	53%
NY GIANTS	8	7	1	53%
PHILADELPHIA	8	8	0	50%
ATLANTA	7	7	2	50%
CHICAGO	7	8	1	47%
CLEVELAND	7	8	1	47%
DENVER	7	8	1	47%
DETROIT	7	8	1	47%
JACKSONVILLE	7	8	1	47%
PITTSBURGH	7	9	0	44%
MINNESOTA	6	8	2	43%
BUFFALO	6	9	1	40%
NY JETS	6	9	1	40%
TENNESSEE	6	9	1	40%
WASHINGTON	6	9	1	40%
INDIANAPOLIS	6	10	0	38%
SAN DIEGO	6	10	0	38%
DALLAS	5	10	1	33%
TAMPA BAY	4	12	0	25%
ST LOUIS	3	12	1	20%

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 1

2011-09-07T12:24:00.003-05:00

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are bad at the beginning of the season and the first week even worst. The statistical models need to pick up data in order to be more accurate. The system does not account for trades or important players not in the roster. I'm only posting these so that you and sites like thepredictiontracker.com can track my progress. Use at your own risk, you've been warned. Be patient, this year we're going to crush it!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY	-1.5	2.8	4.3	61.9%
DALLAS @ NY JETS	-4.5	-9.5	-5	59.7%
ATLANTA @ CHICAGO	3	6	3	58.6%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON	-8.5	-10	-1.5	57.3%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE	-1	-7.0	-6.0	56.0%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE	-2.5	11.9	14.4	55.9%
OAKLAND @ DENVER	-3	15.2	18.2	55.5%
PHILADELPHIA @ ST LOUIS	5	11.6	6.6	54.5%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND	-6.5	3.1	9.6	54.2%
MINNESOTA @ SAN DIEGO	-8.5	-3.3	5.8	52.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY	-4	-10.0	-6.0	51.4%
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY	-6	-5	1	51.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	7	34.1	27.1	50.4%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	-5.5	-16.2	-10.7	50.3%
CAROLINA @ ARIZONA	-7	-10	-3	50.3%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	3	3.0	0.0	50.0%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFLpickles.com History

2011-09-01T14:44:00.000-05:00

We started in 2007 jutting down real-time decision NFL picks against the spread. An algorithm was built to analyze offensive, defensive, spread, team, and other stats. Most times, we just make the computer NFL pick, but sometimes there are players injured and different other conditions that we need to consider to pull the game out of the picks.

THE Metric
I thought about pulling all kinds of stats regarding NFL Pickles, you can see many of these at thepredictiontracker.com. But I realized there is only one metric that matters, return on investment. Not the percentage against the spread (ATS), but ROI. At NFLpickles we weight each week and game differently and using various percentage of bankrolls through out each week (more is used at the end of the season, from 15% to 25% of bankroll). Therefore, this metric is the one that makes most sense since it is the one we are trying to optimize.

As you will above, each year I start trending upwards starting at around week 10 to 11. On the playoffs I do well and have finished with 111%, 67%, and 17% (last year). In 2008, is when we implemented using Kelly's Formula in order to avoid the same variations we saw that year. 2009 and 2010 look surprisingly similar after week 10. We hope this year is a very successful one!

March Madness - NCAA Tournament

2011-03-14T11:12:00.004-05:00

Hello my fellow readers,

I've been meaning to update the blog with a review of last year's performance. I promise to get to it pretty soon. In the mean time, I have a favor to ask you. Can you sign up for this March Madness tournament? You will be competing against my newest latent class regression model on player-level data. That's your prize, bragging rights that you beat 15 years worth of data and 10 years of back-testing.

Tournament:
http://bit.ly/eDTr2D

group id: 98116
password: mineful.com

2010 Super Bowl Pick

2011-01-26T08:17:00.003-06:00

Pick 1: Green Bay -2.5

Last week, after I posted my picks, a very smart comment came to my attention. "Hey Jaime, are you able to remove any GB games that Rodgers didn't play the full game in from your model?" When I did, the spread outcome changed completely, it had the Packers covering but too close to the spread to make it a pick.

This week, I have removed this year's games where either Rodgers or Roethlisberger didn't play. I have also removed the home field advantage factor since they will be playing in Dallas. Below you will see, that the prediction is that Green Bay will win by 7.

Aside from the model, what you got here are the two top defenses in the NFL (although some say GB is a bit lower). In the offense they are also both top 3 teams, with GB taking the #2 spot and PIT the #3. By looking at these numbers one could conclude that since PIT has a better defense and GB a slightly better offense, PIT should be favorite. The market does not think so. By having GB favorite at 2.5, there is more to it. I'm not sure what it is. It is not experience since the Steelers have been here and won before. Could it be that it is Rodgers' (considered the best QB in the NFL by some) time to shine? Why do you think the majority of people think GB will win? Comment below...

As we mentioned last week, we were using 25% of bankroll for the rest of the year, so we still have $250 for the Super Bowl. Below is the table the 2010 NFL Super Bowl picks against the point spread.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY - PITTSBURGH	2.5	6.8	4.3	61.6%

How to read the table:

Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.