TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INDEX CRIMES IN ILOILO CITY

FOR THE YEARS 2000-2006

by

Abstract

This study entitled “Time Series Analysis of Index Crimes in Iloilo City for the Years 2000-2006” aimed to describe the time trend of the Crime Solution Efficiency, index crime rate as a whole, and separately for murder, homicide, physical injury, theft, and robbery. This study further aimed to generate a time series model for the Average Crime Rate for Index Crimes. The researchers used secondary data from the Iloilo City Police Office (ICPO). The data were encoded and analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Line graphs, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, and ARIMA were the tools used in analyzing the distribution of the data over time. The Crime Solution Efficiency showed an increasing trend, while the crime rate for murder showed a decreasing trend. Average Crime Rate for Index Crimes and Crime Rate for physical injury showed a seasonal variation while crime rates for theft, robbery and homicide showed irregular patterns. ARMA(5,0,5) was obtained to model the Average Crime Rate for Index Crimes which is

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And I say that in good way and not to offend people who feel they were offended or close to being offended.

We stat graduates have worked blood, sweat and tears in enduring every Research Papers that are needed to be passed in EACH of our Major subjects in College. We can’t call it Quality Research works but there is that learning factor that we take in every wrong analysis we make, in every mistyped characters, in every missed pages, and in every money, time and effort we spend not only in front of a computer but in the field as well. All these experiences we have learned, we are learning and will be learning  in the future makes us what we are today….a statistician…..

We worked hard in every formula we need to understand, in every painstaking Parametric and Non-Parametric Distributions we need to we need to derive,for every data we encode in the computer, and for the times we used to fear exams because one question comprises of almost 4 HOURS of computations, thinking, analyzing and sweating that will compose our grade for that subject.

Statistics….we are not yet on the level where we can say that we are the best statisticians the world has to offer. But I can safely say that we know we can go on par or even better than Masters or even Doctorate Graduates statistically speaking.

We just don’t say “there is no significant difference…”. We explain why and we explain it in a concise manner with almost no numerical data involved. We just don’t look at numbers as a a number we see it as a soul that represents what is to be represented and it speaks for itself

We just don’t do it for fame’s sake. We do it because we love to do it.

We are statisticians! We know we are significantly different from others! And that is because we DARE to be different!

So on with the introduction…..

I am Alvin Mark a Bachelor of Science in Statistics and Research graduate from West Visayas State University Batch 2007. I am currently taking up Masters in Management at University of the Philippines Visayas and I am in my first year as a Management student. I once took Master of Arts in Mathematics at West Visayas State University but I decided to quit before I go insane.

My first job was at West Visayas State University as a Statistical Analyst/Laborer (which means Job Order). I was assigned at the Managment Information Systems and I worked majorly with IT Professionals. Working with them I have learned a few about Programming (C++, C# and a little bit of PhP), Systems Analyst( QA), Database Systems ( MS SQL and MySQL), Adobe Photoshop, and Simple Computer Repairs ( Reformatting, etc.) . I worked there for about a year or so.

My present job is at John B. Lacson Foundation – Molo Unit at the CRCA Department as a Statistician/Clerk (an upgrade from laborer). My usual work is making  statistical reports using data gathered from the students that took the exams made by the CRCA – AAC Department. Its like quality control but only using students’ exam results as data.

My future job?….a CEO of a Multi Million Dollar Company…..a Rock Star!….an actuarian…..a programmer….a web designer…..a Music Teacher….a musician in a Religious Organization….a Father….or anything I can dream of…..

I love my work as a statistician and I am finding ways on how to merge everything that I have learned, is still learning and will learn in the future in my field of work. I also love meeting new people through my work as a statistician and making new friends out of it in the process.

I have always believed that one has to find the job where one is happy. And mind you a statistician is all I can hope for as job. I enjoy my job and hopefully by reading this you could get a glimpse of a lighter side of me.

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We serve FREE research consultation Online or on settled appointment, provide excellent services to our valued clients, give accurate data interpretation, present complete and reliable data presentation, and provide a software and hard copy of the Statistical Results. We specifically provide these following services:

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• analyze data from a scientific research project using optimal statistical methods to obtain sound and comprehensive conclusions

• prepare an exemplary scientific research report or grant application with easy-to-understand discussion and graphics.

Statistical Software Program

The primary statistical program we used are Statistical Software for Social Sciences (SPSS) and Microsoft Excel (Spread Sheet).

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