Parlez-vous la Défense de Missile Balistique ?

A recent 65-page study on BMD, written by three members of Parliament at a think tank linked to the National Assembly (“Defense et Strategie”) argues for France committing to building, or at least contributing to a BMD system to counter the growing threat from nations hostile to Europe (in general) and France (in particular). The authors, members of leading centrist parties, assert that the threat will grow over the next 15 years, especially from the likes of Iran, and (and this is a new argument) that a BMD is necessary to strengthen France’s nuclear deterrent. In doing so, they also acknowledge that the political will to move forward is lacking in France and Europe (surprise!) and is an attitudede that they seek to change.

It is also perhaps worth noting that it was the Obama Administration’s decision to press with the PAA over the former GBI-centric system the Bush Administration had planned that pushed the authors into the study. The reason? Their view that an American-led system and architecture establishes American industry as a threat, or ‘double risk’ for Europe — double since the Europeans and NATO have yet to devise a comprehensive BMD policy in line with 21st Century threats and if one country equips itself with an American C2 system, it must, perforce, equip itself entirely with compatible US parts.” Note that the Japanese don’t seem to mind with the incorporation of Aegis BMD into their cruisers and establishing joint development for elements of the SM-3 system. The rub, of course, is as the report goes on to say, that the lack of a BMD system would leave European companies blocked from accessing certain export markets. Sort of like the ones cruise missiles like the EXOCET have been pitched to. That worked out well for all involved (cf. USS Stark  ).

Obligatory snark about export sales and French aspirations to industrial prominence aside, the study is significant in that it acts as both another venue voicing concern over Iran’s long-range missile progress (no one but the most ardent partisan would argue the French are sock puppets for the US, especially where maters of intelligence are concerned) and it may well be a bellwether signal that Europe proper may be moving off the dime in terms of serious consideration of ballistic missile defense on the Continent. One method suggested would be the formation of industrial partnerships to develop a European BMD based on France’s current highly advanced technology and cited the ASTER missile system as an example.

This will be a most interesting topic to follow for any one of a number of reasons. As anyone who has worked with/in NATO will attest, gaining consensus for action is the key for success, be it in planning or operations. But in the world of missile defense, one of the hardest things to accomplish is establishing a sound architecture for command and control of the system. Hard enough when only one or two countries or AORs are in play, and almost Stygian where the defended area encompasses many borders and nations. Seams abound and where seams and gaps reside, ballistic missiles readily fill. In no small degree this is one of the major challenges Navy faces as it moves down the four-phase PAA for the defense of Europe with sea- ad shore-based Aegis BMD/SM-3 integrated with TPY-2 and THAAD batteries. Perhaps in the interest of integration and economy, France ought to look closer at what the US has already accomplished with international partners like Japan, Israel, Britain, Spain and the Dutch across a variety of programs and capabilities.

(note: the study may be found here: http://www.christopheguilloteau.com/actualite1.htm  )

In the meantime, Russia continues to work a campaignof disinformation, hoping to disrupt and thwart the deployment of BMD in Europe…

Iran No Threat to USA, Europe ‘In Foreseeable Future’ – Russian Foreign Minister

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks at a press conference in Moscow Photo: AFP/GETTY

In an article in today’s Ria Novosti  , Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov took a direct shot at the US’s proposed missile defense plan for Europe and the US:

“It is evident that Iran currently poses no threat to the U.S. and European countries… At the moment, Iran has no missiles capable of striking Europe, let alone the U.S., and is unlikely to develop [such missiles] in the foreseeable future,” Lavrov said.

Pressing the point, in another article   he surfaced a concern that the US has repeatedly, since the days of the GBI deployment, detailed to the Russians is not the case:

U.S. officials admit that the missile defense system in Europe might be able to hit Russian inter-continental ballistic missiles by 2020.

“The U.S. administration says its global missile shield program is not directed against Russia. However, our conclusions on the true potential of the future missile defense system should be based on specific military and technical factors, not on words,” Lavrov said.

“We will not accept a state of affairs when a missile defense system poses a threat to Russia’s nuclear deterrence potential,” he went on.

The question one must ask — is Lavrov playing a “bad cop” to Medvedev’s “good cop” (and that is stretching it given Medvedev’s comments re. linking missile defense with the follow-on START treaty) where his rhetoric is merely used to address the home audience’s concerns, or, are we seeing a glimpse of Putin’s approach when he ceases being the power behind the throne and assumes the full mantle of national leadership as many expect when he is eligible once again? If the latter, then this Administration is going to have its hands full. Caution in dealing with our European allies, especially with Poland and the like, is the watchword. After unilaterally changing direction on one missile defense plan for Europe and the US by the switch from GBI’s to the PAA (and, for the record, I thought this was a proper shift) – another such shift that reduces or places additional limits in any way on the planned system will have negative consequences for perceived US leadership on the Continent.

We can expect that the Russians will continue to press this issue relentlessly – and our leadership, especially State and DoD had better be ready to just as relentlessly push-back.

©2010 Steeljaw Scribe. All Rights Reserved.

SJS,

So we are out here in the waters somewhere off the Ryukyu island chain. Trying to conduct flight ops. The last couple of days it has been fun. Between the deck dancing around, our E-2C squadron swapped out their shiny jet planes for older planes, and a couple of healthy storms. There has also been a resurgence of the cruise ’stasche.

So where to start.

Lets start with the returning to home classes they have been offering. As it has been since the US Navy noticed an increased rise in accidents with sailors and cars, they have been bring highway patrol out to the ships to talk about safety. Then as various other things have crept to the forefront of the safety thing more and more things have crept into these returning home briefings, until it happened. One day they decided to stretch the time out over a period of a week, using trained facilitators to give lectures on everything from how to spend/save money wisely, buying car strategies, how to re-integrate as a family/couple, how to be a new dad, etc. Most of these are pretty informative and very useful. Leadership is hoping that some of these lessons will sit in people’s minds and keep bad things from happening. It will take some time and see what will happen come the end of this deployment

Our E-2C outfit traded out their aircraft over the last few days with the forward deployed guys. VAW-117 was instructed to trade their E-2C Hawkeye 2K’s for VAW-115’s E-2C group II aircraft. This was an adventures for our brethren in the Hawkeye command. To start with they had to downgrade their shiny new planes with most of the quirks figured out for older birds that have lived the forward deployed life that have new quirks to figure out. I have never done a swap of aircraft mid-cruise, the worst that I have done was picked up an old Prowler that needed to head to the depot for a repair. So we fixed it enough to fly safely off the ship and to the depot. What is really bad about getting a new bird is trying to figure out the quirks of the plane. The way that some of the different systems have gremlins in them and then trying to beat them out. Or retraining aircrew that the older systems installed don’t have all the bells and whistles of the newer systems. The last couple of weeks for our VAW friends have been challenging, on top the fact that we have had a couple of nasty days out here which suspended flight ops, they finally got all the aircraft transferred around.

(ed.  Oh, I *do* feel for my VAW brethren in arms — bummer guys…  When I was Maintenance DH in the Seabats we had to do a complete swap out of all four a/c two weeks before going on deployment, right after I’d just finished grooming my fourth and final bird.  And while I didn’t have to swap any mid-deployment, there is the story of BuNo 160992  … – SJS)

The storms that we sailed through for the last couple of days were interesting. Really reminded me of being up north into the Irish or Norwegian seas in the middle of a winter storm. A whole bunch of cold and an rain at times. Winds that were exceeding 60 knots across the flight deck. Saltines and soda water out on the mess decks. Dramamine and other anti-motion sickness pills going like hot cakes in medical. Finally a whole bunch of rolling and shaking going on. It was challenging and difficult to say the least. Not anything that I haven’t experienced before, but still an adventure. The adventure came from all the brand new to the Navy folks or brand new to sea duty folks who haven’t experienced rocking and rolling like we were doing. We had pulled a few of our escorts close by and there were a few times I saw sonar domes start to breach the surface and rudder tops come up as they went into the trough of the waves. The dramamine ran started to run low pretty quick for a few guys, the suggest then from the docs was to eat saltines and clear soda (like sprite or 7-up). If all else failed they have a few other tricks up their sleeves for the chronic motion sick folks. (ed.  You know you have truly arrived when you go to grasp the handrail for the ladder going up to the next deck and come back with a hand full of someone else’s puke – and it doesn’t even phase you… SJS)

I don’t know if it was popular when you were sea going, but every cruise or deployment I have been on so far, there has been the rise of the cruise mustache. It always seems as if the guys who get away from home (and their wives control) start to try and get their personalities back. That primarily seems to be in the form of growing a mustache. I have seen everything from a bad Magnum P.I mustache down to the pencil-thin mustache. It is all cool through most of the ports the guys sport some variation of these mustaches. However the closer you get to home the sooner the mustache becomes a memory. Yet for some reason in the last couple of days after leaving Hong Kong, the cruise ’stache has come back into vogue with a few of the guys. So it has been kind of funny watching the mustaches come back into vogue for a while and wondering as we get closer to home what will happen to these last attempts to define their personalities for this deployment. As for myself. I don’t have the capability to grow a mustache. The best that I have done after a month of no shaving during a transfer leave was facial hair that sort of resembled some beatnik beard like Maynard Krebs or Shaggy.

ed. Popular you ask?  Remember, your scribe is of another age when the ’stache ruled and everyone grew one (or attempted to) upon arrival at Pensacola.  Check out this mid-cruise shot from 1980’s Ike/CVW-7 Cruise Without End and yeah, I’m in there – still have the ’stache today.  Hair – not so… – SJS

The final thing that can best be viewed as one last prank is an almost constant rumor that we are going out again for three months just after the 234th anniversary signing of the Declaration of Independence. I mean we are just finishing up an eight month deployment and they wouldn’t treat us to a basically a port visit to home and then send up back out again for three months to play in some exercises would they? I really don’t know, but I hope that if it is true we will only be out for a little bit like under two months. It will be a challenge if true, cause basically if you look at this cruise has now been extended into an eleven month deployment. Even if you figure in the time at home, this will be a time will basically be washing our clothes. Getting repacked, compressing time to get some aircraft inspections doing, compressing some major maintenance actions, and finally starting the preparations to go back out to the ship again. In my heart of hearts, I feel as if this isn’t a joke and seriously wonder if anyone above my pay grade is paying attention to wearing out our people and aircraft. Though there might really be chance to completely decompress as we begin transition to the Electric Rhinos. (ed. VAW-121’s scoreboard -  1980: 347 days underway.  1981: 198 days deployed/underway 1982: 255 days underway/deployed — joined the squadron with a little over 100 hrs in the E-2C in late ‘79, left in Nov ‘82 with over 1200 in the Hawkeye and 300+ traps)

I decided to cast my fate to transition. I decided on this after many hours with the wife via email. The decision broke down to what would be easier to deal with the devil I know in this squadron then the devil I didn’t know. For everyone that isn’t going to make the transition will be given a choice of where to go while having a phone call with their detailers. This goes for both Officers, Chiefs, and Sailors alike. It will be interesting to see how that goes and how the transition itself goes. Receiving brand new airplanes with the brand new airplane smells. Trying to figure out what can be fixed on the fly and what will be a science project to work on. I know that my schooling will be seven months of fun. I will spend it either in Lemoore or over in Oceana (my preferred choice). After which I come back home for an additional two months of schooling at Whidbey. After that it will be to the RAG to being working on my qualifications and actually working on the jets, all the while the aircrew are learning how to fly the new jets. The other difference will be the change up in our manning levels. A reduction of flying officers, the potential of getting a few new ground maintenance officers (such as a gunner), and some additions to size of shops. On top of that they are telling us to get use to five jets instead of the four that we have worked on before. There are all sorts of madness being planned for and hopefully some one with the right amount of insanity in their minds will be able to keep it all running right.  (ed.  now *that* will be cool — not only new off the production line, but a whole new airframe/weapon system to write the operational book on.  That’s the ticket! – SJS)

Sincerely,

Charles

©2010 Steeljaw Scribe. All Rights Reserved.

Simorgh SLV/ICBM (Feb 2010)

TD-2/Unha-2 (April 2009)

Last month Iran unveiled a new long-range missile  , the Simorgh, as a follow-on to the Safir SLV.  Putatively identified as a space launch vehicle, it bears strong familial ties to the TD-2 prototype SLV/ICBM launched last April (2009).  Since then, some analysts have noted that while the airframe has made an appearance sooner than the NIE’s from 2008/2009 suggested, much still remains to be put in place for the program to reach flight test stage.  Chief among those items would be a launch site as something of this size requires a much larger complex for support than the Safir.

According to press reports over the weekend, it appears that too is well underway and sooner than many had expected:

Iran is building a new rocket launch site with North Korean assistance, Israel Radio quoted IHS Jane’s as reporting overnight Friday.  The new launcher, constructed near an existing rocket base in the Semnan province east of Tehran, is visible in satellite imagery, according to the report.  The defense intelligence group said the appearance of the launcher suggests assistance from North Korea, and that it may be intended to launch the Simorgh, a long-range Iranian-made missile unveiled in early February and officially intended to be used as a space-launch vehicle (SLV). SLV’s can be converted to be used as long-range ballistic missiles for military purposes.  Both the missile and the launch pad, which according to Jane’s is large enough to accommodate it, point to cooperation from Pyongyang. (Jerusalem Post, 6 March 2010 0)

Firing up GE, we locate the site fairly quickly:

Semnan Missile R&D Complex

Zooming in, we note the new launch facility as described in the press:

New Launch Facility, 4 km NE of Semnan Safir Launch Facility (35°15'31.57"N 53°57'15.89"E )

(note: SPOT imagery taken May 2009)

Jane’s has more recent imagery (ca. 2010), via DigitalGlobe, showing greater progress that was posted this weekend:

Note the progress on the flame bucket and supporting facilities.  Clearly, as indicated in a number of articles, there is also North Korean influence/assistance here.  Compare with:

Tae'po dong launch facility (3D model of launch tower added) North is towards reader's lower left

But Tae-po dong is a fairly old facility.  North Korea is building a new facility on the west coast that incorporates a number of upgrades – and apparently served as the model for the new Semnan facility:

Tong'chang dong Launch Facility (North is towards reader's lower left) (39°39'33.18"N 124°42'21.58"E)

Note the similarity of support facilities and infrastructure (especially the gantry and flame bucket) between the Tong’chang and Semnan facilities.

Southwest of the new complex (east of the original Semnan launch site) is another facility that is under construction.  While the purpose is not immediately clear, Jane’s makes note that the “heavily secured nature and restricted access indicate it is a primary element of the newly constructed complex.”  Given proximity to launch sites for missiles that are liquid-propelled and dual use (SLV or IR/ICBM) the facilities could be for production of propellant, or for payload support.

Secure facility under construction (New Launch facility is north-east of location)

East of this location is a series of excavations that could be the basis for an engine test facility:

Possible Engine Test Facility Under Construction ( 35°14'11.25"N 53°57'9.85"E)

The extent of work (and it’s level of progress) indicate a devotion of substantial resources dedicated to Iran’s long-range missile effort.  It also points to a fundamental problem in the non-proliferation/sanctions approach.

As I’ve highlighted in the past  , current non-proliferation regimes simply don’t cut it when the Iranians, Syrians, North Koreans and Chinese are non-participants.  Similarly, sanctions, such as they have been, have only imparted a delaying effect.  Perhaps with Russia’s come-around   to supporting a stronger round of sanctions   where Iran’s nuclear program is concerned, that may force Iran to compliance — but given recent history, it doesn’t seem likely  .

©2010 Steeljaw Scribe. All Rights Reserved.

Third ship of the Forrestal-class CVA’s – the first supercarriers . . .

Veteran of Vietnam and Desert Storm, Southern Watch and Restore Hope . . .

Last ship to bear the storied name, Ranger, that began with John Paul Jones . . .

Decommissioned in 1993 as part of the post-Cold War rush to the peace dividend, she now sits in deep preservation at Bremerton Navy Yard, awaiting her fate:

And that, dear reader, is something you may have a chance to have a say in.

There is a movement underway to save Ranger and turn her into a museum serving the northwestern US (an area, incidently, which has a deep linkage to carrier aviation).  The Ranger Foundation  is seeking support, fiscal and moral, to save this ship, one of the first of the supercarriers.  It is important to remember that there are a finite set of conventional carriers to fulfill this role — and in all likelihood, with the possible exception of Kennedy (CV-67), the rest of the “newer” conventional carriers of the Kitty Hawk-class will likely be sunk as part of test and development programs given their similarity to the Nimitz-class hulls (as was the case with America (CV-66)). The nuke carriers, beginning with Enterprise in a few years, in all likelihood won’t be able to serve in this role.

So, please hurry over to the Ranger Foundation’s  website and pitch in to save this piece of aviation and naval history — time is not a luxury.  The Foundation has gained Phase 1 approval from the Navy and are working towards a permanent moorage in Portland, Oregon-but without funds for the studies that need to be done now, they will not be successful.  And Ranger will end up as another sinkex victim.

(h/t Tailhook  )

©2010 Steeljaw Scribe. All Rights Reserved.

100227-N-4408B-613 ATLANTIC OCEAN (Feb. 27, 2010) The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77), the Navy's 10th and final Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, heels hard to starboard during high-speed turns. George H.W. Bush is underway supporting fleet training operations. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Micah P. Blechner/Released)

As part of the sea trials coming out of a yard period, you put the ship through its paces to include high speed runs and extreme turns.  When we pulled IKE out of the yards on my first at sea period as her ‘gator (navigator) we did  the whole nine-yards, including a high speed run forward and reverse.  The run forward was for a good hour, in a straight line, which will chew up substantial pieces of seaborne real estate.  A carrier, particularly a nuke, running at flank speed is a sight to behold.  When you throw the rudder over for a hard turn she leans waaay over, and that’s usually when you find out those things that weren’t properly secured — boxes, books, plates, TV’s come flying off their shelves and from the bridge, we heard the occasional muffled bang followed by a stream of obscenities from the chief or LPO.  As for me, secure (OK, holding on for dear life) in my chair on the starboard side of the bridge, I was looking up towards the port side of the bridge to see the CO, OOD and rest of the nav team doing likewise.  Had they lost their grip, a swift slide to the starboard side would have ensued…

One other thing these trials allow, which simulators just can’t convey, is to give the nav team (especially the new members) a good feel for what the ship can do, how she handles and what sort of things to take into account (and use to good purpose) that you normally don’t get a chance to do with an embarked airwing.  Things like getting a feel for just how long/far the ship will coast from a full power run, or how she handles when full astern is rung up:

100227-N-1854W-977 ATLANTIC OCEAN (Feb. 27, 2010) The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77), the NavyÕs 10th and final Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, goes full reverse while conducting high-speed drills. George H.W. Bush is underway supporting fleet training operations. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Jason Winn/Released)

Yeah, blunt ends just don’t cut through the waves like the proper end

Bubblehead has some stories from a submariner’s POV here  …

©2010 Steeljaw Scribe. All Rights Reserved.