SJS,

Okay to start with I am currently in Malaysia, but last week I had a chance to visit the island of Phuket (pronounced Foo-Ket) in the Indian Ocean side of Thailand. An interesting place historically. It is one of the few mainland Asian countries to have ever not been colonized by any of the western nations. It also was one of the few nations to be “allied” with the Japan during world war 2, though to be completely fair they did put up a very organized resistance only to realize that sometimes yielding like a reed to the wind is better then being bowled over like a giant oak tree. So they become “allied” with Japan and allowed the Japanese army march over land from French Indo-China territories to attack the British lands. While that was happening though the Thai’s had a very active resistance movement. Since they the Thailand nation has been very close allies to the US in the South China Sea region. They are ruled by a constitutional monarchy and are very much a Buddhist country.

That was it for the history lesson of Thailand. There is more I am sure and things I have glossed over, but need to keep this short. First off Phuket, is an interesting place. We were visiting there at the height of their winter, which compared to your winter of 32 inches of snow, the temps were in the high 80s. (mmph – tell me about it… – SJS) There was just as much if not more so humidity. The primary selling point of this place is the beaches. They make the beaches of Florida, Va Beach, and probably Hawaii feel and look like sandboxes. This is one of the islands that was decimated by the 2004 tsunami. Though as I traveled around, you couldn’t see the scars. Though you could run across a few memorials here and there. There are a large number of resorts. Everything from the upscale multi-dollar a night sort of resort on down to one that  just a step above a flop house.

Things to do here vary. Everything from shop for that genuine Koach bag to the Ed Hardly clothing line. If you don’t want to do that then there are snorkeling and scuba diving to be down. If not that then getting on an elephant ride at one end of the island and riding over to what a traditional Thai village. If that still does rock your boat then how about just chilling on the beach with an ice cold beer in your hands working on your tan. The final thing to do is experience the local night life.

The local night life is interesting to put it mildly. I think even Skippy-San would balk at some of the things that you can do or watch here. After the sun  goes down all sorts of sex for sell comes out. The party town is called Patong. There is one bar street that also doubles as the red light district of the island. There are various bars down this street. You sit down and am immediately joined by a bar girl, buy a few drinks maybe play a few games. One of the popular games to play is a nail driving game into a log. Your given a nail and a rock hammer or a chipping hammer and try to drive the nail into the log before your opponent. Another game they had was a variations of the classic Five Aces games. You know the one, roll five aces (or ones) and you buy your party a round of cheer.  Most of these games lead to more and more drinking. In turn a few of these bar girls turn into your best friend of the night (at least for a price). On the other side of that you can go into some go-go bars and see the origin of the term “ping-pong show”. This place makes Vegas or even New Orleans during the height of Mardi Grasis look like a day in Mayberry.

After we left Thailand, we were out for a few days flying here and there. It is starting to become monsoon season out here. So during flight ops you can see some of the rain clouds out there just dumping rain. The best day though was about two days ago, we had “twister” clouds as one of the guys I worked with described them. Basically it was warm, humid, and all  the clouds were puffy at the top, but strictly flat on the bottom near the ground. Perfect clouds to produce tornados. So we were constantly moving the flight schedule all around. Flights scrubbed for weather, setting of t-storm condition 1. then an hour later re-manning of the event, from there we run around like chickens trying to get planes ready to go. Only to head into another storm, and scrub everything again. After about eight hours, the planners just threw their hands up and only got those that needed traps to get currency up and right back down via  the bolter pattern.

So after a few days of getting flights in we have now pulled into Malaysia. I will write more about this place when I get a chance. I also have a deep thought that maybe Skippy-san could wax about, since he is probably more of a SME about the region then me. That is this: Seeing all of this and the way it was all compacted the way it was. Made me think about all the various stories I had heard of Olongopo from my family and some of the other CPO’s when I first came in that had visited the PI in its height. I seriously wonder if this is all places like the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, etc that are third world Asian countries know how to make a buck. Is by having the women pimp themselves out while the men either sling beers or counterfeit clothing. I contrast a lot of I have seen with just Singapore, Japan, and even to an extent some of the under developed places in Europe that I have been too. Is it a failing on the west’s part because we didn’t do enough to bring a country like Thailand up or is it the countries own internal faults that prevent them from becoming a decent competitor to the Singapore, Japan, Taiwan’s of the world by having a good enough economy? Just a deep thought that crossed my mind.

Sincerely,

Charles

©2010 Steeljaw Scribe. All Rights Reserved.

…And, we’re back.

Didn’t lose power or satellite TV, but the internet went lights out about 5 hours into this weekend’s storm.

Some metrics from the storm:

• 32″ at the homestead vs.  18″ at Reagan National (it always skews low there – must be all the hot air from up river…)
• 14,180 ft³ of snow shoveled and blown…or at an average of 15 lbs per ft³ ~945 lbs of the stuff moved from sidewalks, alleyway, feeder road and our neighbor’s drives over the course of 12 hours Friday night – Sunday AM.  Props to Sears   and a tip of the fedora to Tim “The Toolman” Taylor  …
• 48 hours of continuous coverage of the storm on all four networks – of which maybe 45 minute was meaningful…

We are so ready for spring — but are expecting another 10-20″ tomorrow night and Wednesday.

Next year?  I’m thinking of a better use   for ol’  Punxsutawney Phil  .

(pics from washingtonpost.com   because I was too ********* busy shoveling and blowing the cursed stuff)

©2010 Steeljaw Scribe. All Rights Reserved.

We are about one-third of the way through Iran’s annual “Ten Days of Dawn” observation which celebrates the victory of the Islamic revolution in Iran and the return of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979.  The occasion serves as a platform for Iran to boast about progress under the Islamic Republic and demonstrate military, scientific and technical prowess.  This, despite the West’s attempts to limit technology transfer in key areas, such as missile technology.

    Day 3 of the celebration is set-aside as “Space Day” and yesterday, Iran’s President Ahmedenejad had three items of note/accomplishment to announce that:

•  Iran had launched a payload of animal specimens (a mouse, turtles and worms) into space and recovered them on a new research rocket named Kavoshgar-3 (Explorer-3);

•  Three new satellites were unveiled: the Tolou (Sunrise), the Mesbah 2 (Lantern 2), and the Navid (Promising Sign) and
• A new space launch vehicle, Simorgh-3, which will serve as the launch vehicle for those satellites.

Kavoshgar-3 ("Explorer-3")

Of these announcements  , the last is the most interesting and perhaps, troubling.  With the ability to loft 220 lbs into a 310 mile earth orbit (if it indeed works), that would move Iran into a new capability category with a nascent ICBM.  The implications for the US and allies would be the impact on the European PAA and near term planning for the global BMDS, all of which (along with the BMDR) were predicated on a slower timeline for Iran to develop an ICBM capability, 2015 or ‘mid-decade.’  Tied with Iran’s continued intransigence on the nuclear front (aided and abetted by China’s continued refusal  to support a sanctions regime) this is one announcement that has little upside to it.   Russia, at least, is coming into alignment  with the US:

“Mutual understanding between Russia and its international partners on additional sanctions has clearly improved,” Kosachyov said in an interview with state broadcaster Rossiya 24 today. “The situation is beginning to alarm us increasingly.”

 A successful launch will likely bring pressure to bear on the US to step up the rate of deployment and development of both the sea- and land-based elements of the European PAA  , leveraging increased deployment time on units that are already HDLD  in nature and turning up the burner on the SM-3 Blk IIa program.  It may also cause a reassessment of the plans for the ground-based BMD system to see if it still serves as a hedge in its current configuration as per the BMDR. 

The continued advancement of Iran’s missile programs stands in defiance of the MTCR  , a voluntary consortium of 39 countries regarding the export controls on technologies central to missile development.  Of course, neither China nor North Korea are members and they are among the worst of the serial proliferators, North Korea especially so in the case of cooperative ventures with Iran.   Also neither China, North Korea or Iran are parties to the follow-on regime, the  International Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation  .  The enablement of this unholy alliance of proliferators brings us to the Simorgh.  Below are two images, one of the boost stage of the Safir-2,  which placed a small satellite into earth orbit last year.  The second image is what is presumed to be the business end of the Simorgh’s first stage — a cluster of four liquid-propelled rockets.   

Safir 1st stage (Feb 2009)

Simorgh booster engines (Feb 2010)

 Again, clearly it seems the Iran’s indigenous program is well underway in spite of these regimes. 

 The leading question then becomes, given the historical record of cooperative effort between North Korea and Iran, how related is/will be the Simorgh to the TD-2:

 . . . and that, as the saying goes, is the $64,000 question.

©2010 Steeljaw Scribe. All Rights Reserved.

.WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRI MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN STERLING VA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE.SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS.THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE 12 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WATCH AREA.WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 20 INCHES.

* TIMING.SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.CONTINUING THROUGH SAT EVENING.

* TEMPS.HIGHS AROUND 30 FRIDAY. FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

* WINDS.EAST 5 TO 10 MPH FRI & FRI NIGHT.BECOMING NO. 10 TO 20 MPH SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIMILAR TO THE DECEMBER 19TH STORM. PLAN FOR SUBSTANTIAL DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.”

A.  I am (censored) sick of bleeding snow.  Period.

B.  Thank God racing’s back beginning this weekend …

©2010 Steeljaw Scribe. All Rights Reserved.

Lots in the news today – let’s start in the Gulf:

US officials have let it be known that it now has Patriot batteries in four Gulf states – Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. US anti-missile ships are also being stationed in the Gulf.  All this comes as the impasse over Iran’s nuclear activities continues and amid efforts by the US and other Western countries to increase sanctions on Iran. (BBC  )

The outreached hand has obviously been slapped away once too often.  Iran’s continued intransigence on the nuclear issue combined with its growing inventory of ballistic missiles poses an implicit threat to the region.  PAC-3 battery’s deployed to the four GCC states provide a tangible, visible presence on the ground with regional friends and partners.  BMD configured cruisers and destroyers, armed with SM-3s extend that reassurance with a measure of deterrence for the region with their ability to intercept longer range MRBMs in the Iranian inventory.

All of this falls into two of the four priority objectives outlined in the 2010 QDR, released today:

• Prevail in Today’s Conflicts
• Prevent and Deter Conflict
• Prepare to defeat adversaries and succeed in a wide range of contingencies
• Preserve and enhance the All-Volunteer Force

Still, there are some who think that such a response will only strengthen the hand of extremists in Iran, emboldening them to crack down even harder on dissidents in general and the Green revolution in particular.  The line of thought is that the hardliners believe that the absence of a viable alternative to the current rulers will prevent the West (and the US in particular) from effecting regime change as it did in Iraq.  To wit, having observed Saddam survive the West’s repulsion of Iraqi forces in Kuwait (and suffering substantial damage at home to boot), only to be overthrown later in OIF the lesson they took away was Saddam survived the first encounter because the West believed there was no viable alternative government to take his place.  Now, with a hardening of the US stance (ref: President Obama’s mention of growing consequences if Iran did not comply with UN resolutions) and apparent increase of forces in the region (“missiles are missiles and warships are warships whether their intent is defensive or not”) this might be the time to come down even harder, scattering those who would support Moussavi and thus insulate themselves from a US-led invasion.

Bit of a stretch, to be sure.  But then, the survival instinct is a dominant feature not only in nature, but in politics too – especially in regimes characterized by tyrannical rule.

In the meantime, the deployment of BMD ships to the Gulf also offers us the opportunity to look at the BMDR –

2010 Ballistic Missile Defense Review

The stated intent of the BMDR is to align U.S. missile defense posture with near-term regional missile threats, and sustain the ability to defend the homeland against limited long-range missile attack.  In essence, this formalizes the change in direction announced last September by the Obama Administration and categorized under the so-called Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA) for Europe.  The PAA (or EPAA as it is known in some circles) stepped away from a GBI system deployed in Europe (mid-course radar in the Czech Republic and 10 2-stage GBIs based in Poland) to one more focused on meeting the extant threat presented by MR- and IRBMs to our European friends and allies using tested and proven systems, like Aegis BMD.  That shift however, did not place the current BMDS providing protection to the homeland in a decommissioned state.  In fact, under the BMDR’s terms, that system can and will continue – with some provisos.

Supporting that change are six precepts that will serve to guide and direct US policy for development and deployment of missile defenses.  Michele Flournoy, undersecretary of defense for policy, today described those six major priorities  at a Pentagon news conference:

The first goes to the heart of defense and that is to defend the United States from a limited ballistic missile attack. The second is to defend against growing regional threats. A third priority is “to test new systems under realistic conditions before they’re deployed to ensure their effectiveness,” Flournoy said. The fourth priority is to develop new fiscally sustainable capabilities, while the fifth is to develop flexible capabilities that can adapt as threats evolve. Finally, the United States wants to lead expanded international cooperation on missile defense, she said.

“We believe this approach will provide reassurance to our allies that the United States will stand by our security commitments to them,” Flournoy said, “and will help to negate the coercive potential of regional actors attempting to limit U.S. influence and actions in key regions.”

It’s been said before on these pages that ballistic missiles have been a growth industry this past decade and the trend line has a positive slope to it.  Not only are numbers increasing, but so too are ranges and sophistication.  The old SCUDs of Gulf War I are rapidly being supplanted by solid propellant, mobile long-range missiles that have the payload and throw-weight for a variety of WMD, not least of which could be nuclear.  Kinetic kill missile defenses remain but one (albeit an important one) way to defeat that threat.  The BMDR looks to guide and direct efforts in that direction too as well as bringing others onboard in a a cooperative approach to defense.  According to Flournoy, Russia and China (the latter one of the more egregious proliferators of missile technologies) factored into the review with an eye towards engaging them on a strategic level.

For now, color me skeptical on that point…

BMDR as of 26JAN10 0630_for Web  

©2010 Steeljaw Scribe. All Rights Reserved.