Mark your calendar to attend online the October 1st FRED Conference on the “now and next” of data.

The program features four dynamic panels, each facilitated by renowned leaders in academia, industry, and government. Hear from and engage with thought leaders and innovators from Amazon, FedEx, The Economist, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the St. Louis Fed in this day-long conference. Fed Governor Christopher Waller will provide opening remarks followed by Q&A.

Save this livestream event to your calendar (Outlook/Apple Calendar (.ics), Google Calendar)

FRED has added two data series about the monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the United States and the Euro Area reported by researchers Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone.

Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. United States data are available starting January 1980 and Euro Area data are available starting January 1985.

For details about the methodology, read the authors’ academic work.

FRED has added 137 data series about the adoption of generative artificial intelligence (AI) technology in the United States, reported by Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, and David Deming.

The researchers use information collected through the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS) to measure (a) the share of working-age adults using generative AI for work, outside of work, and overall, (b) the reported time savings due to generative AI use, and (c) comparative usage rates for generative AI, computers, and the Internet. Some of these findings, such as adoption rates at work and time savings, are further broken down by industry and occupation.

More details are available here.

FRED has added 420 data series from the Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The SBCS captures the perspectives of business owners operating firms with fewer than 500 employees; it is conducted in partnership with business and industry associations, local agencies, and nonprofits. Because it is a convenience-sample survey, the data are weighted using Census Bureau data to match the distribution of firms in the SBCS sample to the distribution of small employer firms (1–499 employees) in the United States by age of the business, industry, number of employees, census division, urban or rural location, and owner’s race, ethnicity, and gender. The SBCS is conducted each year in the fall, and reports on the results are released beginning the following spring.

More details are available here.

FRED has added 85 data series from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED) reported by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

The survey measures the economic well-being of U.S. households and identifies potential risks to their finances. Survey topics include credit access and behaviors, savings, retirement, employment, economic fragility, and housing. The SHED is administered to respondents entirely online. Participants are selected to represent the overall population of U.S. adults 18 years old and older.

The survey has been fielded in the fall each year since 2013. Staff of the Federal Reserve Board write the survey questions in consultation with other Federal Reserve System staff, outside academics, and professional survey experts. More details are available here.

• The Risk-On Risk-Off (RORO) Index uses daily data from asset markets in the United States and euro area to measure the variation in global investors’ risk appetites. An index value larger than zero suggests investors are likely avoiding risk, whereas a negative value suggests investors are likely taking on more risk. More details are available here.

• The Kansas City Fed’s Measure of Policy Rate Skew (KC PRS) is a daily measure of how financial markets perceive the balance of risks to short-term U.S. interest rates one year in the future. A positive value of policy rate skew indicates financial markets believe interest rates are more likely to end up higher than projected, whereas a negative value suggests rates could end up lower than projected. More details are available here.

FRED has added 4260 data series about cross-border portfolio investment flows and positions between U.S. residents (including U.S.-based branches of firms headquartered in other countries) and foreign residents (including offshore branches of U.S. firms), reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system provides:

• Monthly data on transactions and holdings of long-term securities;
• Annual detailed position data on holdings of long-term and short-term securities;
• Monthly and quarterly position data on claims and liabilities (including short-term securities) reported by banks and broker/dealers of securities;
• Quarterly position data on selected claims and liabilities reported by non-banks and non-broker/dealers; and
• Quarterly position and transactions data on financial derivatives reported by major participants in those markets.

More details are available here.

FRED has added select series from Bankrate LLC in two different releases:

• Bankrate Consumer Polls, an annual survey of financial sentiment, behaviors, and goals. The poll has 10 questions, and it has been conducted since 2011.

• Bankrate Monitor (BRM) National Index, a weekly report of average interest rates on checking and saving accounts, certificates of deposit, credit cards, auto loans, mortgages, and other lines of personal credit. Data are available since 1984.

More details are available here.

FRED has added 13 new series to its Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) release.

CARTS combines eight weekly indicators for retail sales (including payment card transactions, retail foot traffic, gasoline sales, and consumer sentiment) with the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly data on retail and food services sales (excluding motor vehicles and parts). The result is a time-consistent weekly index of retail trade that, when aggregated to a monthly frequency, matches the available Census Bureau data. The new data additions include series about both nominal and inflation-adjusted estimated retail sales figures, a price index of retail sales, and projections for both.

More details are available here.

FRED has added 5 new series to its Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) U.S. Mortgage High Yield Index release.

The index tracks the total return of the bonds issued within the credit risk transfer (CRT) programs of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It is an informational, investment-oriented monthly index of the return components of bonds: price, coupon, paydown, and credit loss. In combination with other standard risk metrics, the index is useful for comparing relative value with individual CRT bonds and with debt instruments in other credit markets.

The new data additions show the spread of the index values over the risk-free rate, according to the risk profile of the bonds. More details are available here.