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A Global Surge!

This week, the markets followed through on some big moves that started during the last week of August. Across the globe, almost every major market was kicking higher. The Canadian market had a little underperformance due to the strong declines in precious metal stocks. Meanwhile, some of the most encouraging news in terms of chart patterns came from the Asian exchanges.

The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) is setting up nicely on the weekly chart. One of the problems we have seen since the tariff talks started back in early 2018 is that the entire globe has seen growth slow. After the early 2019 surge, the last few months from April to August have seen a pullback. Now, it looks like the upside momentum is really kicking in. I like the chart making a turn higher on the PPO very close to zero, which looks like it is setting up for a major run higher. The surge above the 10-week moving average also looks very strong. Notice the Full Stochastic moving above 50, which is usually a very bullish indication.

Commodities also had a particularly strong week. While the gold and silver miners reversed this week after months of outperformance, different industrial metals surged, including copper, steel and rare earth metals. The movement in oil was also nice to see.

The West Texas oil chart ($WTIC) moved back above the 10-week and 40-week moving averages. With the full stochastic turning up again, it looks more like crude oil is set to break to the upside. On the PPO, the momentum indicator has been idling lower rather than surging lower, which suggests to me that selling pressure is easing. The chart moved up $1.42 this week and locked in a higher low. Just to put the gain into context, the $SPX was up 1.8% this week while the percentage gain for oil was 45% more at 2.6%. That strong bid on energy and industrial metals, coupled with a global surge, suggests the potential for a 4th quarter run in both commodities and equities. Notice how the momentum downtrend on the PPO started when the tariff talk started. A move back above zero on the PPO would suggest a break in the down trend and a new cyclical swing higher.

This week, the video focused primarily on the commodities, as they look set to continue higher. While commodities have been held down recently as the equity market rallied in July, the stage looks set for some commodity outperformance.

A Global Surge!

I do want to point out some of the places I'll be speaking over the next few weeks. Firstly, I'll be presenting at the TSAASF.org conference on Saturday, September 14. Head over to TSAASF.ORG for more information.

On Tuesday September 17th, 2019 I'll be at the Minneapolis CMT Association meeting as part of a panel discussion about the current state of the markets. Ralph Acampora, Jay Woods, Craig Johnson, Katie Stockton and I will be rolling through some ideas for the 4th quarter of 2019 and 2020.

On September 21, 2019, I'll be presenting at the Toronto MoneyShow.

Save The Date:

We are also getting set up for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts' annual Technicians Day on October 19th, 2019. Book that date in your calendar; it's an all-day event that you can attend online for just $35 or in person for $75. I'll have more information in the coming days.

Just as a last reminder, Tom Bowley has a presentation Monday, September 9th at 4:30 PM ET.

Following up on last week, my indicators are turning positive and my charts are turning higher. Europe and Asia are making strong moves and we are working toward new 52-week highs on some country indexes in September. New 52-week highs are bullish and do not usually occur in a bear market! I will say I was correct that the market would break lower in August, but the fact that there is fresh optimism on the charts means we should change with the tide.

It's harvest season, make hay while we can!

Scanning For Stocks With Strong Technicals AND Strong Fundamentals

I maintain a "Strong Earnings ChartList", where I organize those companies who (1) beat Wall Street consensus estimates as to both revenues and earnings per share (EPS), (2) have adequate liquidity (generally trade more than 200,000 shares daily), and (3) have shown solid technical price action. The number of stocks on this list varies, depending on where we are in earnings season and how many companies are able to beat estimates. Currently, I have 329 companies in this ChartList, the most I've ever had. I believe that's a function of our economy being much stronger than is reported. Also, if technical price action is strong, it's generally a reflection of a solid business outlook ahead.

How could I go through this process and have a record number of companies on my list if an impending recession was looming? It's one more reason why I believe all the recession talk is hogwash. It's just my view, so believe what you want to believe.

From a trading perspective, I'm most comfortable buying stocks that have solid fundamentals (ie, on my Strong Earnings ChartList), but have pulled back to key price support levels. I could look at all 329 charts or I could run a simple scan that looks like this:

I didn't change the volume requirement. Instead, I used the default. Remember, I've already determined that I'm ok with volume levels when I added individual stocks to my Strong Earnings ChartList. The volume component of this scan could be removed. I then select my Strong Earnings ChartList using the drop down menu under "Scan Components". I include a SCTR (StockCharts Technical Rank) component above 70 to ensure that the companies remain fairly high in terms of relative performance vs. their market cap peers. Finally, I include RSI < 50 to ensure that companies have been selling, or at least consolidating, after prior advances.

My scan returned 27 of my 329 stocks, a very manageable list of charts to review. I'm going to focus on two of them. I review my Industry Group Relative Strength ChartList frequently in order to be aware of the best performing industry groups. I'm much more confident trading the best stocks in the best industries. Call me crazy, but when Wall Street begins to grow very bullish again, I know the leaders within the strongest industries are likely to be very attractive. So that's where, in my opinion, we want to focus. The fact that these stocks have already been selling leaves us with solid reward to risk candidates in the best groups. Bingo!

Software ($DJUSSW) and medical equipment ($DJUSAM) have been two of the best industry groups. Need proof?

These aren't absolute charts, they're relative charts. This beats us over the head that software and medical equipment have been two of the best industry groups over the past three years! If your goal, like mine, is to beat the S&P 500, wouldn't you want to invest in companies within groups that are beating the S&P 500?

So getting back to that scan......there are two companies I want to feature. The first is a software stock:

Avalara, Inc. (AVLR):

Keep in mind that AVLR tripled in value in 2019 and deserves a period of consolidation or basing. I'd look for buyers to accumulate in the 75-80 range so I'd use any further weakness as an opportunity to build a position for a high reward (target 95) to risk (closing stop below 74) trade.

NovoCure, Ltd. (NVCR):

We've seen a powerful move in NVCR since early May and it too deserves a period of selling/consolidation. There's likely to be a wider range of support here as NVCR has had few hiccups (bouts of selling) during its advance. But any further selling down to 80 would start to prove quite interesting. I'd recognize the possibility for a further decline to the lower 70s if price support at 80 fails to hold. But ultimately, I see a return to the 100 level, which would result in a very nice trade.

If you like the idea of a Strong Earnings ChartList and scans against that list for trading ideas, I think you'll love the new product/service lineup at EarningsBeats.com. I'll be discussing it tomorrow afternoon at 4:30pm EST and it's completely FREE to everyone. CLICK HERE for more information and how you can join the event. I'd love to see you there!

Happy trading!

Tom

Earnings Season Never Ends; These 2 Companies Prove It

The beauty of being both a fundamentalist and a technician is that the fun never stops. Many of you may view earnings season to last from the middle of the first month of each calendar quarter (when Dow Jones component stocks and the biggest money center banks begin reporting) to perhaps 4-5 weeks later at the conclusion of many first tier and second tier technology companies reporting their latest quarterly results. But the truth is it never ends. Sure, the number of companies reporting diminishes, but it really never ends. Also, the gaps created on the price charts provide opportunities throughout the quarter. I'm constantly waiting on companies with excellent fundamentals and technicals to allow profit taking to kick in and retrace to high reward/low risk entry points. That is an ongoing process that excites me every single day the stock market is open.

I want to give you a couple examples of companies that recently (within last 1-3 weeks) reported absolutely fantastic quarterly results that should not be overlooked as trading candidates.

Medtronic, Inc. (MDT)

There are two things I love about MDT. The first is that its quarterly earnings report was excellent. Not only did MDT post revenues that easily surpassed estimates ($7.49 bil vs $7.41 bil), but its EPS also beat estimates handily ($1.26 vs $1.18). That's a sign that management is executing its business plan and Wall Street loves solid management teams. The second positive here is that MDT is one of the best companies within the medical equipment industry ($DJUSAM), which is one of the best industry groups vs. the S&P 500. It's difficult losing money if you stick with the "best stocks within the best industries":

Those blue directional lines tell a story, a bullish story.

Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS)

Like MDT, KEYS is a very attractive trading candidate. While its industry group, electronic equipment ($DJUSAI), is nowhere near as strong as medical equipment, KEYS has been a huge leader in the space. After posting revenues ($1.08 bil vs $1.04 bil) and EPS ($1.25 vs $1.02) that crushed Wall Street consensus estimates, KEYS soared to clear overhead resistance and break out from a bullish cup with handle continuation pattern:

That cup with handle breakout measures to about 117, which I believe we'll see in time. Given the industry group's relative weakness, I'd make sure I kept a stop in play on KEYS - perhaps in the 92-93 area. The blue circle does show recent relative strength the past three weeks or so. If that continues, it would be an extremely bullish development for KEYS.

MDT and KEYS are just 2 of the 329 companies that I now have on my Strong Earnings ChartList, one of the many products/services that we offer at EarningsBeats.com and are available to our members. I'll be discussing our entire product/services lineup on Monday, September 9th at 4:30pm EST and it's open to everyone! Please mark your calendar and plan to join me. CLICK HERE for more details on the event.

Happy trading!

Tom

Big Changes in the Index and Sector Breath Models

It was a big week for stocks and the breadth indicators backed up the bullish price action. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) broke out of its August range to signal a continuation of the bigger uptrend. Even though the Index Breadth Model turned bearish in mid August, the S&P 500 indicators remained net bullish and ultimately overruled the bearish signals from small-caps and mid-caps (more on that later).

So we have the range breakout heard 'round the world. At this point we must take it for what it is: bullish until proven otherwise. This breakout represents follow through to the surge on August 29th and suggests that new buyers are entering the market. Follow through was lacking during the range and this week's follow through was impressive. Moreover, this move reinforces support from the August lows and the rising 200-day SMA.

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Index Breadth Model Flips

The Index Breadth Model moved from net bearish to net bullish as the 10-day EMA of S&P 500 AD Percent ($SPXADP) surged above +30% and reversed its bearish signal. As the chart above shows, the S&P 500 breadth indicators have been net bullish since February 5th and the S&P 500 has been the strongest of the three indexes.

Overall, five of nine signals were bearish at the start of the week, but now five of nine are bullish. It is not hard to flip the model when it stands at 5. All it takes is one signal. As with the bearish period, this new bullish signal is not overwhelming because four indicators are still on active bearish signals. Mid-caps and small-caps are still not taking part and large-caps are the place to be.

The S&P 500 is the 800-pound gorilla in the stock market and all three of its indicators are on bullish signals. Remember, the S&P 500 accounts for some 80% of the total US stock market. This behemoth has been net bullish since February 5th. On the other side, the S&P Small-Cap 600 has been net bearish since March and remains bearish.

What are we to make of this flip? I think we need to treat these indexes as separate entities and put more weight on the S&P 500. While I am trying for a broad market assessment with the Index Breadth Model, it is clear that there are three separate entities at work (large-caps, mid-caps and small-caps). Large-caps are the place to be, small-caps are the place to avoid and mid-caps are stuck somewhere in between.

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Big Improvement for Sector Breadth Model

Unsurprisingly, the Sector Breadth Model also improved with several new signals. Breadth thrusts in Technology, Finance, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary and Energy powered the S&P 500 breadth thrust. We also saw new highs expand in the Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary, and the %Above 200-day EMA trigger bullish for Finance and Industrials.

What a difference a month makes. Finance, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services were net bearish in mid August, but have since flipped back to bullish. Industrials flipped back to bullish last week, while Technology and Healthcare were already bullish. This means the big six are net bullish and this is bullish for the S&P 500. The Consumer Discretionary remains net bearish with two of three signals bearish. However, XLY High-Low% ($XLYHLP) is very close to exceeding +10% and Discretionary %Above 200-day EMA (!GT200XLY) is very close to exceeding 60%.

Is this a whipsaw or the start of an extended uptrend? First, whipaws are part of the investing process and unavoidable. We never know which signals will result in whipsaws and which will herald an extended trend. Second, I do not consider this a whipsaw because the S&P 500 remained bullish throughout. Small-caps were already bearish and remained bearish.

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This Week on Art's Charts

Four Keys to Finding Meaningful Bullish Reversal Patterns - with Two Live Examples (Saturday - click here)

SOXX extends bounce off key retracement, IPAY holds up well and ranking ETFs by chart performance (Thursday - click here)

Charting and analyzing the AD Lines, Up/Down Volume Lines and High-Low Lines for the S&P 500, S&P Mid-Cap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600 (Thursday - click here)

Trading range extends, large-cap breadth holds up, low volatility leads high beta and junk bonds show little fear (Wednesday - click here)

A classic reversal pattern in a digital storage leader - Plus four other setups (Wednesday - Click here)

QQQ and SPY are doing just fine as XLY and XLK carry the load in August (Tuesday - click here)

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Truncated Week Ahead: NIFTY Likely To Remain In A Broad Range; Watching These Levels Continues To Remain Important

In the week that went by, the Indian equity markets did not make any directional move on any side. The index oscillated back and forth in a defined range and ultimately ended the week on a flat note. The India Volatility Index (INDIAVIX) also remained flat, losing just 0.01 points (-0.05%) during the week. In the previous weekly note, we had mentioned that the zone of 11100-11200 would act as a stiff resistance area. Indeed, the headline index was not able to move past this zone and ended with a weekly loss of 77.05 points (-0.70%).

The NIFTY has managed to keep its head above the 100-Week MA, which is presently at 10901. On the other hand, the next immediate resistance point lies at the 50-Week MA, which currently stands at 11111. Speaking in weekly terms, it would be critically important for the markets to maintain levels above the 100-Week MA, a.k.a. 10901. Any slip below this crucial level will infuse more weakness in the markets.

While expecting a quiet start to the week, we expect the levels of 11100 and 11190 to act as resistance; supports are expected to come in at 10800 and 11640.

The weekly RSI is 40.83; it remains neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is still bearish and remains below its signal line.

On the Candles, a Hanging Man has occurred. Since it has emerged during a downtrend, it is called a Bullish Hammer. When it occurs during a downtrend, it indicates the formation of a support area, meaning a potential reversal of the trend. However, this will require confirmation on the next bar.

If we correlate the formation of a bullish candle with the pattern analysis, the previous week’s low of 10746 will be crucial to watch over the coming days. For a bullish hammer to confirm, and for the markets to form a potential base, the previous week’s low needs to be protected.

If we summarize from the above described technical setup, the two levels - 10746 on intra-week and 10900 on a closing basis - will be essential to monitor. Any violation of these levels will be detrimental to the short-term trend of the markets. On the higher side, taking out the 11100-11200 zone will be required for any sustainable directional uptrend to occur.

Given the above setup, unless any of the levels are taken out in the directions discussed, we will see the NIFTY oscillating in a broad range, just like it did during the previous week. We recommend avoiding excessive exposures on either side and vigilantly protecting profits with any move that markets offer during their range-bound oscillations.

Sector Analysis for the Coming Week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

The review of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) depicts a picture similar to that of the previous week, albeit with some minor improvement. The FMCG and the IT index are firmly in the leading quadrant and are seen improving their relative momentum compared against the broader markets. These groups are likely to relatively out-perform over the coming week. Apart from these groups, the Consumption index has nearly reached the leading quadrant, though it remains in the improving quadrant at present.

The Auto index has moved into the improving quadrant, indicating some respite from the prolonged weakness that it has been seeing. We expect some stock-specific performance from this group along with the Pharma index, which is also placed comfortably in the improving quadrant.

Besides these groups, we have the BankNIFTY, Infrastructure, Financial Services, Metal, Energy, NIFTY Mid50, PSE and CPSE indexes and the PSU banks remaining in the lagging and weakening quadrants. These groups, collectively, may underperform the broader markets on a relative basis.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consultant Technical Analyst,

www.EquityResearch.asia

DecisionPoint Scan Gems

Very soon, I will be launching a daily newsletter for DecisionPoint that will give you some stocks that have presented themselves in one of my many DecisionPoint scans. I do the analysis so you don't have to. I don't make trading recommendations, and certainly no promises - I just do the legwork and find the stocks I think you should look at.

I decided that I would do my first scan report for our ChartWatchers readers. Keep an eye out later this month for more information on the launch of this new service from DecisionPoint.

Continue reading "DecisionPoint Scan Gems" »

Add The X-Factor To China Trade Tensions

This week, China agreed to continue negotiations on the China-US trade deal. While that is news that the market can look forward to seeing play out, it definitely helped the charts technically.

Thus, the indexes look set to take a run at the nearby highs. But the areas of the markets that I am looking at are the Industrial metals and Rare Earth metals. The chart below represents copper miners.

The rare earth metals chart didn't kick off as strong on the news, but, if we start to see some growth in trade, this area should perk up nicely.

Recognizing that these charts are bouncing off two-year lows, we can see they also topped out when tariff announcements started in early 2018. Check out the 3-year charts below.

Here is the REMX weekly.

Notice there is significantly higher PPO lows currently on the weekly charts than the December 2019 lows. Stay tuned to see if these charts can fly! What is the x-factor? The tickers copX and remX are both worth watching, as these ETFs should move significantly faster than the metals.

Examples of Exit Disciplines Are All Around Us: Pay Attention!

You board any airplane today and before it takes off, the flight attendants review all the exits with you. Cruise ships do life boat drills before departure. Exits on trains and buses are also clearly marked and labeled for emergencies. Clearly, the point is that you need to know how to get out. Your life just may depend upon it. Similarly, your financial life might also depend upon knowing your exits.

I recall reading the Market Wizards books years ago and learning how a large percentage of the wizards formulated their exit strategies BEFORE ever buying into their positions. In my mind, I label that the race before the race.

My habit is to formulate my exit strategies when the markets are closed. I like to think that I’m using my rational silicon brain. When the markets aren’t open, I’m calm and unhurried — strategically formulating both bearish and bullish scenarios. I can plan out specifically how I’ll pyramid into my position and which accounts will get allocated in pre-calculated proportions. Then I deal with conquering my own hopes and fears, my dreams and promises with respect to the specific investment at hand.

Too many times, I’ve witnessed investors try to formulate exits on the fly in the middle of a trade during market hours — only to have the silicon brain vaporize and the human brain kick in. In those moments, they suddenly move to the fictitious Lake Wobegon, where as Garrison Keillor says, everyone thinks they’re far above average.

The stock market is episodic by nature and will consistently generate a crisis of beliefs and emotions which in turn produces indecision and brings delays. Markets, money and moods are all bundled together by your beliefs. I learned to wrestle with this triumvirate best during off hours. You need to enter the battle having prepared yourself mentally and emotionally beforehand — coming equipped with both bullish and bearish scenarios that are appropriate to your personal trading plan and timeframe. Only then will you be ready to listen to what the market has to tell you.

The market is a jealous mistress that’s determined to have it her way and only her way. Once you learn to approach her with this mindset and obey her, the market will share her profits and riches with you.

Friends! Come join me for...

"The 10 Stages of Stock Market Mastery"

Next month – Saturday, September 28th at 9:00am – come join me here in Seattle for a special one-day seminar. In my "10 Stages of Stock Market Mastery" course, I'll cover the most important aspects of my personal investing system and share with you the routines and strategies I've used to trade the stock market for a living for more than 25 years.

If you're anywhere near the Seattle area (or if you're up for a quick trip out to the PNW!), this is a great chance to spend some quality time learning more about the markets, focusing on your portfolio practices and strengthening your investing approach.

For complete details and registration info, CLICK HERE.

See you on the 28th!

Trade well; trade with discipline!

- Gatis Roze, MBA, CMT

StockMarketMastery.com

Author, Tensile Trading: The 10 Essential Stages of Stock Market Mastery (Wiley, 2016)
Presenter of the best-selling Tensile Trading DVD seminar
Presenter of the How to Master Your Asset Allocation Profile DVD seminar
Developer of the StockCharts.com Tensile Trading ChartPack

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Internal Support Substantially Erroded

The Nasdaq Composite Index is about 2.5% below its all-time high of earlier this year, but its Bullish Percent Index (BPI), which is the percentage of Nasdaq component stocks with point and figure BUY signals, stands at only 44%. This is about -15% below the BPI reading at the 2007 market top, and about -45% below the all-time BPI of 78% in 2004 (not shown). There is a simple explanation for this gross negative divergence: The large-cap stocks in the index are carrying the index, while the small-cap dogs and cats are in trouble.

Charts of the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite BPIs show weakness similar to the Nasdaq; although the large-cap S&P 500 confirms large-cap leadership.

Conclusion: In spite of the broad market being near all-time highs, a substantial number of stocks are not participating in the advance. This is not healthy.

Continue reading "DP WEEKLY WRAP: Internal Support Substantially Erroded" »

Twitter Leaves the Consolidation Tree

Twitter has been in the news for all kinds of reasons; from controlling foreign influence to blocking political party messages, the company seems to have all kinds of public relations issues. Twitter is one of the most powerful tools in the world for politicians, as the ability to communicate directly without the filters of the press corps - for free - is of extreme value. Worldwide, the platform has become a direct communication medium and everyone who is on Twitter uses it to receive the news.

This week, the price of the stock made its own news. Twitter (TWTR) broke out to new 52-week highs and is now challenging the 2018 high.

From a technical perspective, Twitter is now setting up what would appear to be a long term cup-and-handle base. While it is difficult to suggest this is a real cup-and-handle based on the fact it took five years to form, it is clearly bullish to see Twitter continuing to soar. The purple area chart suggests Twitter is hitting new one-year highs on relative strength compared to the $SPX. If TWTR can outperform the $SPX, that attracts more investors. The SCTR ranking on the top shows Twitter with a 99 ranking, meaning that price action is stronger than 99% of the large cap stocks.

On the bottom panel, the PPO continues to rise up, suggesting improving momentum.

The indicators for Twitter suggest it is positioned to go higher. As the stock tries to break through $48.00, investors should stay focused on the price action. If Twitter is unable to break out and hold above $48, investors should try to protect against a downside move that may shake them out of the stock. All that to say, watch closely as the price tries to take out the most recent high.

Drum Roll, Please!! A New Era Begins

The excitement is building as Tom Bowley gets ready to rejoin the EarningsBeats.com team as Chief Market Strategist. Why the excitement? Because Tom's experience as Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com, along with being one of the original founders of and contributors to EarningsBeats.com, gives him a unique perspective and knowledge that will benefit both communities. Accordingly, we are pleased to invite the entire StockCharts community to join Tom for a special webinar this Monday, September 9th at 4:30pm ET, as he lays out his vision for EarningsBeats.com's future. Just click here to learn more and to get webinar instructions.

Speaking of Tom... Check out the leading stock that has helped to power his Model Portfolio higher.

This stock was first added to the Model portfolio on May 19 at a price of $84.03. When the 90-day holding day period ended, the stock was trading at $134.96, a 60% gain. Then, when Tom released his new batch of Top 10 Picks on August 19, ROKU was once again one of the stocks in the Model Portfolio - IN SPITE of its huge gain. Since that time, the stock has tacked on another 25+%. In fact, since the stock was first added to the Model portfolio on 5-19-19, ROKU has more than doubled! I wanted to point this out as one of the topics Tom will cover during Monday's webinar will be the makeup and performance of his three portfolios - Model, Aggressive and Income - that have consistently and substantially outperformed the market. You DON'T want to miss this event!

In the meantime, with Tom front and center at EarningsBeats, we'll continue to focus our attention on stocks like ROKU that beat top- and bottom-line earnings expectations and have charts that indicate they could go much higher.

At your service,

John Hopkins

EarningsBeats.com

Better Timing. Better Trades.

Four Keys to Finding Meaningful Bullish Reversal Patterns - with Two Live Examples

Major bullish reversal patterns signal the start of new up trends that can extend and be very profitable. However, chartists must first learn to distinguish between meaningful patterns and irrelevant patterns. Here's how...

There are three parts to a major bullish reversal pattern. First, there is the price action leading into the pattern, which is a downtrend. Second, there is the pattern itself, which is the base-building process. Third, there is the price action leading out of the pattern, which is the breakout. All three parts are important and there are four keys successful identification.

First, a pre-existing downtrend is mandatory. This may sound obvious, but you cannot have a major bullish reversal pattern without a substantial downtrend to reverse. The decline into the pattern should be extended, in duration and distance. A three week decline that extends 7% will not cut it.

Second, the height of the base should be in proportion to the prior decline. While there are no hard and fast rules, the height of the pattern should not cover more than half of the prior decline. If a stock declines from 80 to 40, a Double Bottom should not extend past 60. Otherwise, the Double Bottom covers more than half the decline and we should consider alternatives.

Third, the base of the pattern should extend for months, not weeks. The base represents the accumulation phase when the "smart" money buys. The longer the base, the longer the accumulation phase and the more solid the base from which to launch a breakout. A three-week base does not cut it.

And finally, the breakout should be strong and confirmed with other indicators. Price should accelerate to the upside and break above resistance like a hot knife through butter. Chartists can use volume, volume-based indicators or other trend indicators to confirm the breakout. This is a fielder's choice.

Now let's look at some examples.

The example above shows Activision Blizzard (ATVI) with a Rounding Bottom that checks all four boxes (hat tip @JBorman). First, the stock declined over 50% and hit a 52-week low in February. Second, the height of the pattern (40-52) is less than a third of the prior decline. Third, the base building process extends nine months as the stock formed the Rounding Bottom from December to August. Fourth, the breakout occurred with a price acceleration that is confirmed with the 200-day SMA, RSI(65) and Aroon(65).

Click here for a System Trader article explaining how to use RSI(65) and Aroon(65) to identify uptrends.

The second example shows Sonos (SONO) with a Triple Bottom that checks all four boxes as well (hat tip @verrone_chris). There was an extended decline into the pattern, the height of the pattern is less than a third of the decline and the base extends at least six months. The breakout occurred with a price acceleration and was confirmed with the indicators.

Meaningful bullish reversals patterns are the exception, not the norm. Chartists looking to profit from these patterns must learn to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Ignore the pretenders and move on. Put the contenders are on your watch list and act when your setup triggers.

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This Week on Art's Charts

SOXX extends bounce off key retracement, IPAY holds up well and ranking ETFs by chart performance (Thursday - click here)

Charting and analyzing the AD Lines, Up/Down Volume Lines and High-Low Lines for the S&P 500, S&P Mid-Cap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600 (Thursday - click here)

Trading range extends, large-cap breadth holds up, low volatility leads high beta and junk bonds show little fear (Wednesday - click here)

A classic reversal pattern in a digital storage leader - Plus four other setups (Wednesday - Click here)

QQQ and SPY are doing just fine as XLY and XLK carry the load in August (Tuesday - click here)

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Stock Indexes Break Out of August Trading Range to the Upside

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, September 5th at 10:46am ET.

A rally in global stocks has taken a turn for the better with major stock indexes clearing some upside resistance barriers. The three major stock indexes shown below have all cleared their August highs and 50-day moving averages. At the same time, their 14-day RSI lines (upper boxes) have risen above 50; and their daily MACD lines (below charts) have turned more positive. That strong price action has pushed all three indexes out of their August trading ranges to the upside. Small caps and transports are also having a very strong day. Foreign stocks are rallying as well.

Eight of eleven U.S. sectors are in the black, and are being led higher by financials, technology, and industrials. Defensive sectors like staples, utilities, and real estate are in the red and lagging behind. A rebound in global bond yields is hurting bond proxies while boosting banks and other financial stocks. Semiconductors are leading technology stocks higher.

A pullback in the dollar over the last two days is helping to boost economically-sensitive copper and oil prices; while safe haven precious metals are seeing some profit-taking. After starting the week in risk-off mood, investors are taking a more risk-on attitude today as we near the end of the week. Some positive trade news and stronger economic data are behind today's more optimistic mood. But that can change very quickly. All we can do is follow the action on price charts which has turned more positive. While stocks are trading higher this morning, it's important that they hold onto those gains through the rest of the day.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Tom McClellan: Bond Yields Stretched Far From Oil’s Message

Back on July 10, I wrote in a Chart In Focus article that there was an “Upturn Ahead for T-Bond Yields.” And we got a small upturn then. But that small upturn in yields was more than eclipsed by a huge drop in bond yields to historic lows, as U.S. yields were affected by the rest of the world’s bond markets going mad.

Several countries’ sovereign debt instruments are trading at negative yields, meaning that you pay for the privilege of someone else holding your money for you for years. And so, with investors looking around trying to find somebody to pay them anything, that has pulled down U.S. yields in sympathy.

Crude oil’s 3-week leading indication had said that we should expect yields to fall somewhat in August, but it was nothing like the magnitude of what actually transpired. So what we have is a situation where bond yields have danced the right dance steps, but with a magnitude that is not at all what was choreographed.

We have seen this before. Back in June-July 2016, there was another big yield drop, almost as big as this one, that went against what crude oil’s leading indication had said should happen. What happened afterwards was that bond yields worked extra hard to steer themselves back out of the ditch, and so we got a larger-than-called-for up move in bond yields. That should be the outcome this time as well.

And, just coincidentally, we had former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on CNBC Sept. 4 stating that he thought negative bond yields are coming soon to the U.S., in addition to other countries. That is just the sort of comment that we see throughout history as marking the top tick or bottom tick of a move.

And as that is happening, crude oil prices stand poised to break an important declining tops line. Such lines tend to matter a lot in crude oil prices. So, assuming that crude oil prices break the declining tops line and start trending higher, that is going to create additional pull higher for long-term bond yields.

S&P 500 Breaks Trading Range To Upside And There Was Very Bullish Confirmation

Market Recap for Thursday, September 5, 2019

U.S. indices had a strong day on Thursday, with leadership from key aggressive areas. The small cap Russell 2000 ($RUT) led the action with a solid 1.75% gain. More on the RUT in today's Current Outlook section below. The NASDAQ also gained 1.75%. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 climbed as well, tacking on 1.41% and 1.30%, respectively. Among sectors, the five aggressive areas - technology (XLK, +2.09%), financials (XLF, +2.04%), consumer discretionary (XLY, +1.91%), industrials (XLI, +1.80%), and communication services (XLC, +1.70%) - landed in the top 5 spots. That's exactly the type of market behavior I want to see when our major indices make significant upside breakouts. The breakout on the S&P 500 is shown below:

After 5 attempts to clear 2940, the 6th time was a charm. Seeing leadership from aggressive areas on a key breakout day adds bullishness to the day's action, in my view.

As you might expect, the defensive areas struggled on a relative basis. Utilities (XLU, -1.08%), real estate (XLRE, -0.87%), and consumer staples (XLP, -0.62%) very badly lagged on the session.

Pre-Market Action

Crude oil ($WTIC) is down roughly 1%, while both gold ($GOLD) and the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) are relatively flat.

Overnight, Asian markets were higher on the heels of Thursday U.S. strength. European markets are mostly positive this morning and the bias in the U.S. remains fairly positive as well, despite a disappointing jobs report this morning. Dow Jones futures are higher by 96 points with 30 minutes to the opening bell.

Monday's Special Event

I'm really excited to announce a very special event on Monday, September 9th at 4:30pm EST. I'll be announcing our new and improved products and services lineup and describing them in detail. If you're not already aware, our portfolios each represent 10 equal-weighted stocks in 10 different industries and they're crushing the S&P 500 returns since their respective inceptions. Our longest running portfolio - the Model portfolio - is up 56.11% vs. the benchmark S&P 500's 10.60% return. Every portfolio has beaten the S&P 500 in every quarter thus far. I'll detail the selection process and (paid) subscribing members receive the 10 stocks in each portfolio on the day they're announced.

The session will be information-packed and there will be plenty of tips and tricks for investors and traders of all types - both short-term and long-term.

The event is completely FREE. For more information and details regarding the event and how to register, simply CLICK HERE! I sure hope to see you there!

Current Outlook

The small cap Russell 2000 ($RUT, +1.75%) has been a laggard for most of the past year when compared to the S&P 500. But on an absolute basis, there's at least a light at the end of the tunnel. The RUT broke above its declining 20 day EMA on yesterday's close and a similar move after May's swoon led to additional absolute gains, although relative strength vs. the SPX never materialized. It would be more bullish for equities if we began to see leadership from small caps:

The .505 relative level that was just reached is nearing relative lows from 2004-2005, so it's certainly time to see leadership in this space.

Sector/Industry Watch

The Dow Jones U.S. Banks Index ($DJUSBK, +2.48%) led a nice rally in financials (XLF) after recently holding a key price support level:

The short-term downtrend was broken with the move back above the declining 20 day EMA. The intermediate-term is more unclear. Yesterday's failure at the 50 day SMA was a bit bearish, but quite honestly, the 50 day SMA has been crossed multiple times in 2019 and really hasn't provided us much of a directional clue. The real key with this group going forward will be which way we break from this wide trading range between 410 and 465. The movement in the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) will likely provide us the best clue as the DJUSBK tends to move in the same direction as the TNX.

Key Earnings Reports

None

Key Economic Reports

August nonfarm payrolls released at 8:30am EST: 130,000 (actual) vs. 163,000 (estimate)

August private payrolls released at 8:30am EST: 96,000 (actual) vs. 150,000 (estimate)

August unemployment rate released at 8:30am EST: 3.7% (actual) vs. 3.7% (estimate)

August average hourly earnings released at 8:30am EST: +0.4% (actual) vs. +0.3% (estimate)

Happy trading!

Tom

Investing Seminars on East Coast and West Coast

I'm giving four investing seminars this month: two in the East and two in the West. We'll reveal the latest scientific findings on crash-proof strategies - what I call "Muscular Portfolios" - and how to use StockCharts.com to get the most from them.

Figure 1. Philadelphia and Silicon Valley are two places I’ll be exposing investment secrets this month. Preregistration is required for each event. Illustration by the MoneyShow.

Philadelphia — Sept. 28 & 29

Saturday, Sept. 28 will feature my 1-hour intensive seminar at the MoneyShow Philadelphia. This event is free of charge, but preregistration is required. All attendees will be entitled to a free StockCharts premium trial membership.

Sunday, Sept. 29 is the date of my follow-up 4-hour in-depth seminar at the Philadelphia 201 Hotel. It contains everything you need to manage your own money the crash-proof way, eliminating the fees you may have been paying to “financial advisers” and “wealth managers.”

For information on both days, see https://bri.li/philly.

Silicon Valley — Sept. 14 & 15

As I announced on Aug. 16 in my own Muscular Portfolios Newsletter, I’m running two seminars near San Jose, Calif., on Sept. 14 and 15.

Saturday, Sept. 14 is the day the Silicon Valley Chapter of AAII (the American Association of Individual Investors) hosts my 1-hour intensive seminar at the Shoup Park Garden House in Los Altos, Calif. I’ll be the second speaker in the program, which runs from 8:30 a.m. to 12:00 noon. Preregistration costs $15.

Sunday, Sept. 29 is the date of my 4-hour in-depth seminar at the Wyndham Garden Hotel–San Jose Airport. The 1-hour intensive is good, but the in-depth seminar gives you the whole enchilada, making you completely capable of eliminating the fees you’ve been paying to high-priced stock-pickers.

For information on both days, see https://bri.li/sanjose.

These are probably the last public events I’ll run in 2019. My next seminar series — located in other metro areas — kicks off in February 2020. I hope to see you at one of the above opportunities!

With great knowledge comes great responsibility.

—Brian Livingston

CEO, MuscularPortfolios.com

Send story ideas to MaxGaines “at” BrianLivingston.com

STOCK INDEXES BREAK OUT OF AUGUST TRADING RANGE TO THE UPSIDE -- LED BY FINANCIALS, TECH, AND INDUSTRIALS -- RISING BOND YIELDS ARE BOOSTING BANKS AND FINANCIALS WHILE BOND PROXIES WEAKEN -- SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD TECH SECTOR HIGHER -- VIX NEARS AUGUST LOW WHICH IS SUPPORTING HIGHER STOCK PRICES

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ACHIEVE UPSIDE BREAKOUTS...A rally in global stocks has taken a turn for the better with major stock indexes clearing some upside resistance barriers. The three major stock indexes shown below have all cleared their August highs and 50-day moving averages. At the same time, their 14-day RSI lines (upper boxes) have risen above 50; and their daily MACD lines (below charts) have turned more positive. That strong price action has pushed all three indexes out of their August trading ranges to the upside. Small caps and transports are also having a very strong day. Foreign stocks are rallying as well.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

FINANCIALS, TECHNOLOGY, AND INDUSTRIALS LEAD RALLY...The following charts show those three leading sector SPDRs also clearing their 50-day averages today to turn their short-term trends higher. Chart 4 shows the Financial SPDR (XLF) rising above its blue line for the first time in a month. A rebound in bond yields is giving a lift to banks and life insurers. Chart 5 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) reaching the highest level in a month. Chart 6 shows PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) leading the XLK higher. Chart 7 shows the Industrial SPDR (XLI) also achieving an upside breakout.

Chart 4

Chart 5

Chart 6

Chart 7

FALLING VOLATILITY...Chart 8 shows the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index falling to the lowest level since mid-August which is supportive of rising stock prices. Also encouraging is the fact that the VIX remains safely below its May/August peaks. And psychological resistance near 20 (flat line). That reflects a more optimistic mood on stocks and a more risk-on attitude.

Chart 8

Semis Extend Bounce off Key Retracement - XLI and XLF Surge off Support - Ranking and Grouping Key ETFs

Today we will rank and group the key ETFs that I follow. Instead of showing all five groups, like in last week's commentary, I will focus the middle three groups, which I think are the most interesting and still have potential. I am not even going to cover the laggards or ETFs in clear down trends, such as XLE, KRE, XRT and IBB. We can only focus on so much at one time and I prefer to focus on the leaders. This is an update to last week's ranking.

While I would normally shun bullish setups when the broader market environment is bearish, some sector and industry group ETFs still sport constructive charts (new highs, long-term uptrends). In addition, the Index Breadth Model is tilted bearish with five of nine indicators on active bearish signals, while the Sector Breadth Model remains net bullish. SPY and QQQ are also in uptrends. This means there are pockets of strength to be found and we are not in a fully-fledged bear market.

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Programming Note

I am taking some vacation over the next ten days (starting Friday, September 6th). I will continue to provide updates, but they will be shorter and less frequent. The Index Breadth Model and Sector Breadth Model will be monitored and updated when warranted.

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Strong, Perhaps Too Strong

The first group consists of ETFs that have come too far too fast and look vulnerable to a corrective period. They are clearly in uptrends, but double digit gains in just a few months make them vulnerable. For example, the Gold SPDR (GLD) is up around 20% in just over three months and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) is up some 24% in six months. This situation is similar to when the S&P 500 in January 2018, when it was up 18% in five months.

Strong, Perhaps too Strong:

Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Silver ETF (SLV)
Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)
7-10 YR T-Bond ETF (IEF)
Municipal Bond ETF (MUB)

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Leaders with Stable Uptrends

ETFs recording new highs in late August and/or early September have the strongest price charts. This group includes the three defensive sectors as well as a smattering of industry group ETFs. Some may consider them overbought, but they are clearly not as overbought as GLD or TLT. I already covered the Utilities SPDR, Real Estate SPDR and Consumer Staples SPDR on Tuesday so we will focus on the industry group ETFs today. Note that I will show the chart first and then some short commentary.

While SPY weakened in August, the Home Construction iShares (ITB) kept right on trucking with new highs in mid and late August. Talk about relative and absolute strength! The ETF hit another new high on Tuesday and remains in a clear uptrend.

The Aerospace & Defense iShares (ITA) hit new highs in July and then formed a volatile triangle consolidation in August. A consolidation within an uptrend is typically a bullish continuation pattern and ITA broke out with a surge in late August. SPY was still stuck in a trading range in August, but ITA was breaking out again. Another sign of relative and absolute strength.

I have no idea why the Solar Energy ETF (TAN) is so strong, but it is also a clear leader with new highs in August. The ETF broke out in January and then moved higher the next seven months with a few consolidations along the way. Most recently, the ETF hit a new high in late August and formed a small falling wedge. This is another bullish continuation pattern to watch for an upside breakout.

The Medical Devices ETF (IHI) also recorded a 52-week high in late August, and performed much better than SPY during the month. Overall, a triangle consolidation formed after the late July high and this is a bullish continuation pattern. Even though the first breakout attempt did not stick, the big trend is clearly up and IHI is a clear leader.

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Uptrends with mild Corrections

The next charts cover ETFs with uptrends overall, but they are still below their summer highs. Technically, they are not the leaders because there are stronger charts out there (like the four above). Nevertheless, this group is quite interesting because their corrections could be ending. Note that many corrected with a short sharp decline in early August and firmed immediately.

Here is something I need to pound into my head. Sharp pullbacks within uptrends are more of an opportunity than a threat. XLK hit a new high in July and never even tested its 200-day SMA with the sharp four day decline in early August. The bigger uptrend was never in doubt so I should NOT have been drawing a rising wedge in August. A rising wedge is a bearish continuation pattern and I should be ignoring bearish patterns when the bigger trend is up. Phew! I feel better now. In any case, XLK looks fine as long as support at 77 holds.

The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) looks even stronger than XLK. First, XLY also hit a new high in July and held above the 200-day EMA during the August pullback. XLY is stronger because it is already breaking above its mid August highs. It looks like the correction has ended and the bigger uptrend is resuming. Chartists can watch support at 116 for the first signs of trouble.

The Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY) took a hit in early August with the rest of the market, but held WELL above its early June low and rising 200-day. The ETF firmed in the 46 area in the first half of August and is working its way higher the last three weeks. A close below 47 would call for a re-evaluation.

The Fintech Thematic ETF (FINX) started leading in May when it hit a new high in late May and held the mid May low in early June. In contrast, SPY fell the entire month of May. FINX zoomed to new highs in June-July and then corrected pretty hard in August. Even so, the bigger trend is clearly up and this means the pullback more of an opportunity than a threat. FINX gapped up in mid August and this gap is holding (green zone). A close below 28 would call for a re-evaluation.

And last, but not least, the Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) hit a new high in July and then fell sharply in early August. The decline is sharp in percentage terms, but the ETF did manage to bounce near the 61.8% retracement. The mid August bounce exceeded the early August high (red zone) and the ETF even gapped up last week. The correction appears to be ending and chartists can watch 195 for a re-evaluation.

Other Corrections within Uptrends:

Communication Services SPDR (XLC)
Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR)
Software iShares (IGV)
Home Builders SPDR (XHB)
Insurance SPDR (KIE)

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Testing Support and Turning Up

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Is This Stock Ready For a Turnaround - or Just a Quick Bounce?

The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) above is the result of a scan that I am running from time to time. Before you ask... ;) in an upcoming RRG Charts blog, I will explain how I got to this selection of stocks, including the scan-code.

For now, let's concentrate on the RRG and the stocks that are on display, especially the one that I have highlighted in the chart above: that long tail traveling northeast inside the improving quadrant belongs to ALGN, Align Technologies Inc.

As ALGN is a daily RRG, I am going to look at a daily chart to further investigate the stock.

Clearly, this is a very weak stock, with the highs around $330 in May and a huge down-gap at the end of July. Since that sharp drop, the stock continued lower and even broke below the early 2019 low, which should have acted as support. (It did, but only for two weeks.) When that 2019 low did not act as support, the break of that support also did not accelerate the decline as expected, however.

Instead, ALGN has consolidated just below its breakout level, forming a small range that could easily become a nice bottom formation when the upper boundary of that small range (= former breakout level) can be taken out to the upside. The level we are looking for here is the range between $180-$185. The RSI(9) plotted above the price chart is showing a strong and increasing positive divergence with the price chart, which supports a scenario with prices moving higher and breaking out of that range.

From a relative perspective, the strong downward momentum on the RS-line has ebbed away over the past weeks, which is causing the JdK RS-Momentum to turn up and move higher. It is now followed by the RS-ratio line as well.

We are still pretty far away from a crossover to the leading quadrant, so a rotation back down remains an option. However, the combination of a potential bottom in the price chart, support by strong positive divergence in the RSI and a tail traveling northeast on the RRG makes this a stock worth keeping an eye on.

A Tradable Move

This could just be a bounce of support followed by a short, but tradable, rally. But it could also be the start of a turnaround of the longer term trend. Only time will tell. One thing is for sure - you are not buying at the highest level chasing a move higher.

Keeping stops close will be crucial in your money-/trade management for this one. Start with a stop nearby, assuming it will be a short bounce; then, widen/loosen once a new trend is established and we are indeed facing a nice turnaround.

My regular blog is the RRG Charts blog. If you would like to receive a notification when a new article is published there, simply "Subscribe" with your email address.

Julius de Kempenaer

Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

Creator, Relative Rotation Graphs

Founder, RRG Research

Want to stay up to date with the latest market insights from Julius?

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Feedback, comments or questions are welcome at Juliusdk@stockcharts.com. I cannot promise to respond to each and every message, but I will certainly read them and, where reasonably possible, use the feedback and comments or answer questions.

To discuss RRG with me on S.C.A.N., tag me using the handle Julius_RRG.

RRG, Relative Rotation Graphs, JdK RS-Ratio, and JdK RS-Momentum are registered trademarks of RRG Research.

Head & Shoulder Top Is Perhaps The Most Over-Hyped Technical Pattern

Market Recap for Wednesday, September 4, 2019

It was a solid day for U.S. equities as all of our major indices rallied, as did all 11 sectors. Communication services (XLC, +1.94%) and technology (XLK, +1.71%) were the top two performing sectors. Broadcasting & entertainment ($DJUSBC, +2.12%) recently held key price support and is bouncing, led by Comcast's (CMCSA, +3.74%) breakout on Wednesday:

A head & shoulders pattern is NOT confirmed until we see a heavy volume breakdown. CMCSA had a head & shoulders top in play as well, didn't it? How did that work out? Just because you see equal lows, the resulting bounce isn't a right shoulder until we can confirm it with an ensuing price breakdown beneath the neckline. Some analysts try to point out topping head & shoulders patterns continuously throughout bull markets. I say good luck with those.

The DJUSBC remains quite bullish in my view and has been a solid relative performer, as illustrated in the Sector/Industry Watch section below.

Pre-Market Action

Futures are bright green this morning, as the U.S. and China have agreed to meet to discuss trade. Asian markets were mostly higher overnight and European markets are mostly higher this morning. Dow Jones futures are up 250 points with a little more than 30 minutes left to the opening bell.

Gold ($GOLD) is down more than 1% as the 10 year treasury yield spikes 7 basis points to 1.53%. The jump in the TNX should help to bolster financials (XLF), which are near a 1 year relative low vs. the benchmark S&P 500.

Current Outlook

I've posted this quite a bit over the past month, but it's worth posting again. The S&P 500 has been mired in a wide and volatile trading range for the past month. Today appears to be the day that we'll trade outside this range (and to the upside) - at least at the open. So the most obvious question heading into trading today is....can the S&P 500 build on this short-term breakout? Will buyers continue to send prices higher throughout the day or is just another false alarm?

Given this morning's futures and likely breakout of this trading range, I think the rising 20 hour EMA, currently at 2920 becomes the support level to watch. If we can hold above it, then we're very likely to return to challenge the all-time high set in July.

There's a big event on Monday at EarningsBeats.com on Monday, September 9th, just after the market closes. Mark your calendar. More details will follow over the next few days. In the meantime, please be sure to subscribe to our FREE EB Digest newsletter, focusing on key earnings and relative strength. CLICK HERE to sign up! Thanks!

Sector/Industry Watch

I discussed the DJUSBC above in the Market Recap section, but let's take a little different look at the group here:

Those with the glass half empty approach see a topping head & shoulders pattern. I'm in the glass half full camp and I see a leading industry group consolidating within a bull market advance.

Key Earnings Reports

(actual vs. estimate):

CIEN: .71 vs .57

DCI: .61 vs .60

(reports after close, estimate provided):

CRWD: (.22)

DOCU: .04

GWRE: .50

LULU: .89

SAIC: 1.27

ZM: .01

Key Economic Reports

August ADP employment report released at 8:15am EST: 195,000 (actual) vs. 150,000 (estimate)

Initial jobless claims released at 8:30am EST: 217,000 (actual) vs. 215,000 (estimate)

Q2 productivity released at 8:30am EST: 2.3% (actual) vs. 2.3% (estimate)

August PMI services index to be released at 9:45am EST: 50.9 (estimate)

July factory orders to be released at 10:00am EST: +1.0% (estimate)

August ISM non-manufacturing index to be released at 10:00am EST: 54.0 (estimate)

Happy trading!

Tom