The Stock Market Club

Instant Options Income is LIVE!

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 20:40:00 +0000

Instant Options Income is now LIVE!

Make sure you watch the ENTIRE presentation on that page, it reveals some BRAND NEW, SURPRISE EXTRAS you're going to get when you enroll in the program today.

This is priced low enough so that pretty much everybody can give it a shot; but it looks so good, that I think the price will likely double in the future, so if you're ready to add on another safe, predictable income stream, go and get this NOW...

See you in the markets!
The Stock Market Club

Watch Instant Options Income Now

SP 500 Extends Rally Off Thursdays Low

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 20:34:00 +0000

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading.

Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1633.22 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-May rally crossing at 1545.59 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1633.22. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1678.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the November-May rally crossing at 1591.35. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-May rally crossing at 1545.59.

Make sure to check out "Options Income Access" it's now LIVE!

Come Monday morning....will you be trading with us or against us?

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Thu, 13 Jun 2013 22:46:00 +0000

Did you make it to John Carters webinars this week?

If not it's not to late to see what you missed, here is a replay of one of the webinars.

What's next? Some of us are starting John's training classes this Saturday. And we'll be putting these methods to work first thing Monday morning. Click here to sign today

The week got started when John showed us some live trades that proved that his methods of trading were working for anyone and everyone.....no matter how much money they had in their trading account.

Here's just a sample of what the webinars covered.......

*   The difference between trading for income vs. growth

*   Why attempt to double your account "before" it goes to zero in 12 months or less

*   How to control risk while being an aggressive trader

*   What Stops to use and when

*   The mindset of an aggressive trader

Click Here to Register for classes starting on Saturday

Come Monday morning.....will you be trading with us or against us?

See you in the markets!

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Stock Market Club

Tis the Season to Look At Gold & Oil Prices!

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Thu, 13 Jun 2013 22:40:00 +0000

Today Chris Vermeulen, The Gold and Oil Guy, of The Active Trading Partners tells us that he feels the equities market is nearing a significant top in the next couple weeks. If this is the case money will soon start flowing into commodities in general as more of the safe haven play. To support this outlook he is also factoring in a falling U.S. dollar. Based on the weekly dollar index chart it looks as though a sharp drop in value is beginning. This will naturally lift the price of commodities especially gold and silver.

The two most popular investments a few years ago have been dormant and out of the spot light. But from looking at the price of both gold and oil charts their time to shine may be closer than one may thing.

Seasonal charts allow us to look at what the average price for an investment does during a specific time of the year. The gold and oil seasonal charts below clearly show that we are entering a time which price tends to drift higher.

While these chart help with the overall bias of the market keep in mind they are not great at timing moves and should always be coupled with the daily and weekly underlying commodity charts.

Now, let’s take a quick look at what the god father of technical/market analysis shows in terms of market cycles and where I feel we are trading..... As he mentioned last week, a picture says a thousand words so why write when I can show it visually.

Read "Tis the Season to Look At Gold & Oil Prices!"

The Next $100 Move In Gold

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Wed, 12 Jun 2013 18:56:00 +0000

In today's short educational trading video, we are going to share with you several technical setups that we see in the gold market. Plus, we want to share with you a very simple and successful way to trade this market.

No matter what you think of gold, bull or bear, you will find this video interesting and informative and some might even say, disruptive. We will be analyzing both the macro and micro picture for gold and explain where we see it headed in the next three to six months.

Take a few minutes of your time to learn about two techniques that could really change the way you look at any market.....Watch "The Next $100 Move In Gold"

Let us treat you to 10 Free Trading Lessons Today!

John Carters "Small Account Growth Secrets" Webinar

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Sat, 08 Jun 2013 19:51:00 +0000

Last week we showed you some live trades from our trading partner John Carter that proved....with the right mindset and a little training anyone can earn a regular income trading.

Whatever your account size, if you're focused on trading for income, then you need to attend one (if not both) of the webinars that John Carter is putting on Tuesday, June 11th at 8:00PM New York Time or Wednesday, June 12th at 1:00PM New York Time

You can reserve Your Seat HERE now as there is limited seating available.

Here's just a sample of what John is going to share.......

*   The difference between trading for income vs. growth

*   Why attempt to double your account "before" it goes to zero in 12 months or less

*   How to control risk while being an aggressive trader

*   What Stops to use and when

*   The mindset of an aggressive trader

Click Here to Register

I will be attending and hope to see you there!

Ray C. Parrish
Stock Market Club

John Carters "Small Account Growth Secrets" Webinar

Gold, Silver & Precious Metal Miners Signals

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 13:06:00 +0000

It has been a very long couple of years for the precious metal bugs. The price of gold, silver and their related mining stocks have bucked the broad market up trend and instead have been sinking to the bottom in terms of performance.

Earlier this week I posted a detailed report on the broad stock market and how it looks as though it‘s uptrend will be coming to an end sooner than later. The good news is that precious metals have the exact flip side of that outlook. They appear to be bottoming as they churn at support zones.

While metals and miners remain in a down trend it is important to recognize and prepare for a reversal in the coming weeks or months. Let’s take a look at the charts for a visual of where price is currently trading along with my analysis overlaid.

Weekly Price of Gold Futures

Gold has been under heavy selling pressure this year and it still may not be over. The technical patterns on the chart show continued weakness down to the $1300USD per once which would cleanse the market of remaining long positions before price rockets towards $1600+ per ounce.

There is a second major support zone drawn on the chart which is a worst case scenario. But this would likely on happen if US equities start another major leg higher and rally through the summer.

Weekly Price of Silver Futures

Silver is a little different than gold in terms of where it stands from a technical analysis point of view. The recent 10% dip in price which shows on the chart as a long lower candle stick wick took place on very light volume. This to me shows the majority of weak positions have been shaken out of silver. Gold has not done this yet and it typically happens before a bottom is put in.

While I figure gold will make one more minor new low, silver I feel will drift sideways to lower during until gold works the bugs out of the chart.

Silver Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart

Silver miners are oversold and trading at both horizontal support and its down support trendline. Volume remains light meaning traders and investors are not that interested in them down where and it should just be a matter of time (weeks/months) before they build a basing pattern and start to rally.

Gold Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart

Gold mining stocks continue to be sold by investors with volume rising and price falls. Fear remains in control but that may not last much longer.

Gold Junior Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart

Gold junior miners are in the same boat with the big boys. Overall gold and gold miners are still being sold while silver and silver stocks are firming up.

Precious Metals Trading Conclusion

In the coming weeks we should see the broad stock market top out and for gold miners along with precious metals bottom. There are some decent gains to be had in this sector for the second half of the year but it will remain very dicey at best.

If selling in the broad market becomes intense and triggers a full blown bear market money will be pulled out of most investments as cash is king. Gold is likely to hold up the best in terms of percentage points but mining stocks will get sucked down along with all other stocks for a period of time. This scenario is not likely to be of any issue for a few months yet but it’s something to remember.

Chris Vermeulen

Get My Daily Precious Metals Report Each Morning And Profit!

The Bible for Commodity Traders....Get our free eBook now!

Watch a "small account" Become an Internet Sensation

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 15:14:00 +0000

Whether you are trading gold, oil, stocks or currencies there is no shortage online of stories about legendary trades. What there is a shortage of is proof that the trades actually took place.

If you are a regular reader here at The Stock Market Club then you are probably familiar with our trading partner John Carter. John has recently made quite a name for himself as he began sharing his methods of trading that could be done with any size account.

John is shaking things up again with a new video that shows a recording of John trading LIVE with his REAL accounts on a day he made over $223,000 in one day.

The trades were.....

$97,000 on Apple, ticker AAPL
$93,000 on Google, ticker GOOG
$104,000 on Priceline, ticker PCLN

John will show you exactly how he traded the above trades, what he did right, what he did wrong, and what YOU can do to trade like this. And he points out what a 'small account' really is and how the overall goal is to not only make successful trades but to make a regular income source from your trades.

Watch the video here and please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think of John's new simple trading system.

See you in the markets,
Ray @ The Stock Market Club

View "Watch a small account Become an Internet Sensation" right now!

U.S. Stock Market Foreshadows Another Rally – True Story!

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Wed, 05 Jun 2013 19:00:00 +0000

Today our trading partner Chris Vermeulen paints a clear picture of this market with price, volume, momentum, cycles and sentiment. Will he start shorting the bounces? Let's find out......

Over the past couple week’s investors and traders have been growing increasingly bearish for the US stock market. While I too also feel this rally is getting long in the teeth there is no reason to exit long positions and start shorting.

My followers know I do not pick tops and I do not pick bottoms. This I explained in great detail in my previous report. There are more cons to that tactic and on several different levels (timing, volatility, emotions, lack of experience, addiction) than there are pro’s.

Keeping things simple, short and to the point here is my thinking for today and this week on the broad market. Remember my analysis is 100% technical based using price, volume, cycles, volatility, momentum and sentiment. I try not to let any emotions, gut feel, or bias flow into my projections. I say “TRY” because I am only human and at times when the market and emotions are flying high they still take control of me but that is few and far between.

So let’s get to the charts shall we!

SP500 Index Trading Daily Chart – SPY Exchange Traded Fund

The SP500 index continues to hold up within its rising trend channel and the recent pullback is bullish. Remember the trend is your friend and it can continue for very long periods of times ranging from days, weeks, and even months…

The US Stock Market MUSCLE Indexes

The charts below show and explain my thinking… But in short we need these two indexes to be strong if we want to see another major leg higher in the SPY, or to at least test the recent highs.

Today the market opened slightly higher and push up in the first 30 minutes with strong volume. Overall the market looks as though it needs a day pause/pullback before taking another run higher.

Small cap stocks are the ULTIMATE Risk On play and generate ridiculous gains in very short periods of time. I focus on these with my trading partner exclusively at ActiveTradingPartners.com where we have been making a killing on trades like NUGT up 21% in 1 day and IOC up 11% in 2 day.

Bullish Index Price, Volume & Candles

The SP500 has been very predictable the past couple weeks for both intraday trading during key reversal times in the market when price has pullback to a support zone, and also for swing trading. Last week we myself and followers bought SSO ETF when the market pulled back and we exited the next day for a 3.5% profit.

Yesterday was a perfect intraday example with the SP500 bottoming out at my 11:30am morning reversal time zone with price trading at support. Price then rallied into the close posting a 12 point gain on the SP500 futures for a simple momentum play pocketing $600.

US Stock Market Mid-Week Conclusion:

In short, I still like stocks as the place to be and will not get bearish until proven wrong. Once price reverses and the technical clearly paint a bearish picture with price, volume, momentum, cycles and sentiment will I start shorting the bounces.

This week is a pivotal one for the stock market so expect increased volatility and possibly lower lows still until the counter trend flushes the weak position out before moving higher.

If you like my simple, clean and profitable market analysis just click here to join my NEWSLETTER

Chris Vermeulen

The Bible for Commodity Traders....Get our free eBook now!

Seven Keys in Timing Stock Market Tops – Part II

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Mon, 03 Jun 2013 12:33:00 +0000

Timing stock market tops and bottoms is risky business and we all know the more the more risk we take the more potential gain would could also made. Correctly timing a top or bottom for any investment is flat out exciting not to mention financially rewarding. But this high risk trading tactic does come with some major issues which you must FULLY understand so that you can protect your capital and self confidence.

On May 13th I wrote a special report on how to spot market tops just before they happen and how to do it with a very high probability of success. I also explain the major pit falls to be aware of so you stay on the right side of the market.

I recommend you read this special report right now.... "How to Spot and Time Stock Market Tops"

That special report truly showed you what was going to happen a few weeks before it did. Much like how this report shows you what is likely to happen in June.

Looking at the market with my YOU ARE HERE type of using cycles, volume, price patterns and momentum to forecast what is likely to unfold in the coming weeks. Depending on the time frame used for my analysis I can figure out with a high probability where price will be in a few minutes, hours or days also. Mall Market Directory – You Are Here

Stock market tops are tough to trade and time. That is because there are so many things happening in the media and emotions running wild that it’s tough to get a grasp on what you should really be focusing on to keep a level head trade around it.

Market tops are typically not an event but rather a progression that takes much longer than most individuals expect. I still find myself jumping the gun at times and I know this and have been through this process hundreds of times in various investments. The human brain is a powerful tool but emotions can force you to override your rules/strategy still.

Stop Fighting! – Bulls & Bears are BOTH Correct at this Stage

It does not matter where you go to get your stock market news and reports… Everyone is arguing their bullish or bearish case more than EVERY. There is a reason for this and it’s because the SP500, DJIA, RUT and NASDAQ appear to be entering a cycle top. What does this mean? It means the uptrend is almost over from a technical analyst point of view, and those who are have been bearish for a long time feel the market topping out more now than ever in their gut that this is the top.

Keeping it simple removing news, economic data, emotions and biases we are left with one thing which is technical analysis. This is based on price alone and that is important to remember because the only thing that pays you money for an investment is when price moves in your favor. Believe it or not price only has blips on the charts here and there which is based off news, economic data etc… In the big picture stock prices tend to lead economic data by several months and in some cases years.

So the big question is this… If price action is the only thing that pays you when trading why bother worrying about all the other opinions, news out there. That stuff only adds to the confusion and in most cases gets you on the wrong side of the market.

Timing the Market Top Conclusion:

In short, from a technical point of view the SP500 remains in an uptrend. But according to technical analysis the upside momentum is starting to slow. If we get a few more down days then the trend will flip and be down but it has not yet happened.

When the trend does reverse down you must remember that 80% of the time price will bounce back up to test near the recent highs before truly rolling over and collapsing. Think of it like a zombie movie. Just when you think you killed one it comes back to life for one last scare before its dead.

Just to touch on stock market bottoms so you do not get confused. Stock market bottoms are little different than tops so they are traded differently. I will cover them when the time comes.

Trading the market is not easy during this type of condition, which is why members and myself got long SSO on the 23rd and two days later sold out for a 3.5% gain. I am now looking to reload this week for another bounce/rally play but only time will tell if we get another setup.

The Bible for Commodity Traders....Get our free eBook on controlling your trades, money & emotions!

Is Apple Setting Up For A Big Rally?

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Thu, 30 May 2013 13:50:00 +0000

Our trading partner Adam Hewison of INO.com weighs in on where he sees the price action in AAPL moving.....

In today's short educational trading video, I'm going to share with you some of the potentially interesting set ups I'm seeing right now in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).

I will also share with you my step by step approach on how I intend to trade Apple. Presently, I see three unique set ups for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) that I will point out in this short video.

1. A technical setup that hasn't been seen since 2009.

2. A timeline that's a characteristic for Apple setbacks.

3. A fantastic Fibonacci retracement.

So what are you waiting for? Let's get started right away!

Judging by the initial feedback I have received in a in house sneak preview, you won't want to miss this video. The video runs about 7 1/2 minutes.

I personally believe this video on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will give you a unique insight into this stock and company.

Click here to enjoy the video and please feel free to leave a comment. Let us know where YOU think Apple is headed.

Is Apple Setting Up For A Big Rally?

Precious Metals & Miners Start Bottoming Process

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Mon, 27 May 2013 15:29:00 +0000

Precious metals and their related mining stocks continue to under perform the broad market. This year’s heavy volume breakdown below key support has many investors and trader’s spooked creating to a steady stream of selling pressure for gold and silver bullion and mining stocks.

While the technical charts are telling me prices are trying to bottom we must be willing to wait for price to provide low risk entry points before getting involved. Precious metals are like any other investment in respect to trading and investing in them. There are times when you should be long, times to be in cash and times to be short (benefit from falling prices). Right now and for the last twelve months when looking at precious metals cash has been king.

Since 2011 when gold and silver started to correct the best position has been to move to cash or to sell/write options until the next trend resumes. This is something I have been doing with my trading partner who focuses solely on Options Trading who closed three winning positions last week for big gains.

In 2008 we had a similar breakdown in price washing the market clean of investors who were long precious metals. If you compare the last two breakdowns they look very similar. If price holds true then we will see higher prices unfold at the end of 2013.

The key here is for the price to move and hold above the major resistance line. A breakout would trigger a rally in gold to $2600 – $3500 per ounce. With that being said gold and silver may be starting a bear market. Depending what the price does when the major resistance zone is touched, my outlook may change from bullish to bearish. Remember, no one can predict the market with 100% accuracy and each day, week and month that passes changes the outlook going forward.

The chart below is on I drew up on May 3rd. I was going to get a fresh chart and put my analysis on it but to be honest my price forecast/analysis has been spot on thus far and there is no need to update.

Gold Daily Technical Chart Showing Bottoming Process:

Major technical damage has been done to the chart of gold. Gold is trying to put in a bottom but still needs more time. I feel gold will make a new low in the coming month then bottom as drawn on the chart below.

Silver Daily Technical Chart Showing Bottoming Process:

Silver is in a similar as gold. The major difference between gold and silver is that silver dropped 10% early one morning this month which had very light volume. The fact that silver hit my $20 per ounce level and it was on light volume has me thinking silver has now bottomed.

But, silver may flounder at these prices or near the recent lows until its big sister (gold) puts in a bottom.

Gold Mining Stocks Monthly Investing Zone Chart:

Gold mining stocks broke down a couple months ago and continue to sell off on strong volume. If precious metals continue to move lower then mining stocks will continue their journey lower.

This updated chart which I originally drew in February warning of a breakdown below the green support trend lines would signal a collapse in stock prices, which is exactly what has/is taking place. While I do not try to pick bottoms (catch falling knives) I do like to watch for them so I am prepared for new positions when the time and chart turn bullish or provide a low risk probing entry point.

While we focus more on analysis, forecasts and ETF trading another one of my trading partners who focuses on Trading Stocks and 3x Leveraged ETF’s has been cleaning up with gold miners.

Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks Conclusion:

Precious metals continue to be trending down and while they look to be trying to bottom it is important to remember that some of the biggest percent moves take place in the last 10% of a trend. So we may be close to a bottom on the time scale but there could be sharply lower prices yet.

The time will come when another major signal forms and when it does we will be getting involved. The exciting this is that it could be just around the corner. So if you want to keep current and take advantage of the next major moves in the market be sure to join our newsletters.

From our trading partner Chris Vermeulen

Join our FREE Newsletter Today and check out our Memorial Day Special

The Bible for Commodity Traders....Get our free eBook now!

The Headline Data that Financial Media Ignored on Wednesday

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Fri, 24 May 2013 14:11:00 +0000

Wednesday was a wild trading session where we saw the largest intraday selloff in the S&P 500 E-Mini futures that we have seen in some time. Intraday price action was driven largely by statements made by Chairman Bernanke and the release of the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes which saw some monster intraday moves and a large spike in the Volatility Index (VIX).

While the world is focused on when the Federal Reserve is going to taper their Quantitative Easing program and the impact those actions will have on financial markets, I wanted to look at another divergence in the economic data which is supported by market action.

Instead of trying to determine how or when the Federal Reserve will taper or end their monetary experiment, I wanted to juxtapose statements that were made today with the actual facts. Readers can draw their own conclusions.

Recently, we have been told that the housing market is in the early stages of recovery. Unfortunately due to low interest rates housing has turned back into a speculative market. Consequently, a lot of so called fast money is flowing into housing which in many cases is either being purchased for rentals or by foreign investors as a speculative investment.

At present the housing market is not being driven by capital formation at the household level and data indicates that construction jobs are under pressure and affordability is reversing.

This first chart illustrates what has recently transpired in the 10 Year Treasury Yield.....Click here to read J.W. Jones' entire article and view his charts for "The Headline Data that Financial Media Ignored on Wednesday"

Let J.W. show you how to trade options for monthly income. Includes current setups.

FREE BOOK - Profitable Options Strategies for Monthly Income

Gold Stocks: Its Time To Be BRAVE!

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Wed, 22 May 2013 06:39:00 +0000

By David Banister, Chief Strategist the Market Trend Forecast.........

I used to half joke with some of my investing friends that the best time to buy stocks is during or right after a crash. Think 1987, 2000-2002, 2008-09, and now perhaps Gold Miners?? Well, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, lets examine evidence of a “Crash”: I like to use crowd behavioral, empirical, and technical evidence in combination.

1. In a recent money managers poll, virtually nobody was bullish on Gold or Gold stocks, and over 80% of those polled were bullish on the SP 500 and US stocks.

2. The percentage of Dumb Money traders (non-reportable traders) in the futures markets with short positions on Gold is at all time highs, they tend to be very long at the highs and very short at the lows.

3. The insider buying ratio of Gold Mining stocks to sellers is running over 10 to 1, the highest since October 2008 when Gold bottomed out at $685 per ounce from $1030 highs. Quoting Ted Dixon, CEO of Ink Research, “such a high level of buying interest among officers and directors within their own businesses in the resource sector has correctly foreshadowed a recovery in share prices in the past: That high point of nearly five years ago came about six weeks before the Venture market bottomed on Dec. 5, 2008…While the excitement that surrounded mining stocks as recently as two years ago has waned, experienced value investors recognize that such periods of investor neglect often give rise to the best deals” Source: Theglobeandmail.com

4. The ratio of the HUI Gold Bugs Index to the SP 500 is at multi year lows and in near crash mode on the charts. The RSI Index (Relative strength) on the weekly charts is at 10 year lows at -13.71, which is off the charts low!!

5. Most trading message boards I view at Stocktwits and others are universally bearish on Gold and Gold stocks.

6. Gold is in a wave B or Wave 5 down re-testing the 1322 lows which we have discussed here for weeks as very likely if 1470 was not taken out on the upside… this is a normal sentiment pattern and re-test.

7. Gold has been in a 21 Fibonacci month correction pattern off a 34 Fibonacci month rally from 686-1923. In August of 2011 I penned articles from 1805 right up to 1900 warning of a massive wave 3 top forming. Everyone was bullish, now it’s the complete opposite.

8. Currency debasement continues around the world with negative real interest rates. This is bullish for Gold once this correction has run its course.

9. Hulbert Digest Gold Sentiment index is at an all time low (gold newsletters at -35 sentiment readings!!)

10. Gold -Silver put to call ratios are at all time highs

I could go on and on with headlines and such, but you get the idea. This is the same type of sentiment I wrote about on the stock market on Feb 25th 2009, here is that article... and nobody on the planet was bullish.

Below is a chart showing the Bullish % index for Gold Miners, as you can see the last time we were at 0% was late 2008 when Gold had bottomed out and insiders were also buying like crazy like now:

The GLD ETF chart also shows a likely re-test or slightly lower of the 1322 futures lows of April, when Insider buying hit 10 year record levels:

Obviously Gold could end up going a lot lower than we think, and the Gold Mining stocks could sink further yet. But for those with a 3-6 month horizon, we expect the 21-24 month Gold correction to complete by no later than October 2013. During the next several months the opportunities to buy some miners on the cheap will potentially make some investors a lot of money in the coming few years.

Join us here at Market Trend Forecast.com for occasional free reports or sign up for our daily updates on the SP 500 and Precious Metals

Make sure to grab our Bible for Commodity Traders....Get our free eBook now!

Has Apple Lost Its Way?

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Fri, 17 May 2013 21:14:00 +0000

In a recent Bloomberg news poll, 71% of investors believe Apple has become less innovative. Has Apple lost its way? In today’s short five minute video, we will be examining Apple stock (NASDAQ:AAPL) and investigating what drives the price.

We’ll look to see what pushed Apple’s stock price over $700 and what caused Apple to crash below $400 in such a short period of time.

For more information on the tools we use in this video, click here to visit MarketClub.

MarketClub gives your portfolio the edge, online trading tools you won't find anywhere else....click here to visit MarketClub.

The Stock Market Makes New Highs - So What Else Is New?

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Fri, 17 May 2013 19:45:00 +0000

In spite of all the Washington wrangling over the IRS, Benghazi and the FBI, stock market managed to put in a solid performance for the week. The S&P 500 is closing up 1.4%, the NASDAQ a similar amount of the DOW with a gain of just over 1%.

As we have said before, standing in front of the train or catching a falling knife in the market is not a good idea right now. The old adage of "sell in May and go away" may still work, but we wouldn't count on it. We would only count on our Trade Triangle technology to tell us what is going to happen.

Check out what we are using.....this technology be the only thing to get you through May of 2013 with your portfolio in tact. Just click here for a sample.

How to Spot & Time Stock Market Tops

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Tue, 14 May 2013 13:53:00 +0000

Since the middle of April everyone and including their grandmother seems to have been building a short position in the equities market and we know picking tops or bottoms fighting the major underlying trend is risky business but most individuals cannot resist.

The rush one gets trying to pick a major top or bottom is flat out exciting and that is what makes it so darn addicting and irresistible. If you have ever nailed a market top or bottom then you know just how much money can be made. That one big win naturally draws you back to keep doing it much like how a casino works. The chemicals released in the brain during these extremely exciting times are strong enough that even the most focused traders fall victim to breaking rules and trying these type of bets/trades.

So if are going to try to pick a top you better be sure the charts and odds are leaning in your favor as much as possible before starting to build a position.

Below are a few charts with my analysis and thoughts overlaid showing you some of the things I look at when thinking about a counter trend trade like picking a top within a bull market.

Utility Stocks vs SP500 Index Daily Performance Chart:

The SPY and XLU performance chart below clearly shows how the majority of traders move out of the slow moving defensive stocks (utilities – XLU) and starts to put their money into more risky stocks. This helps boost the broad market. I see the same thing in bonds and gold this month which is a sign that a market top is nearing.

That being said when a market tops it is generally a process which takes time. Most traders think tops area one day event but most of the times it takes weeks to unfold as the upward momentum slows and the big smart money players slowly hand off their long positions to the greedy emotion drove traders.

Look at the chart below and notice the first red box during September and October. As you can see it took nearly 6 weeks for that top to form before actually falling off. That same thing could easily happen again this time, though I do feel it will be more violent this time around.

SPY ETF Trading Chart Shows Instability and Resistance:

Using simple trend line analysis we see the equities market is trading at resistance and sideways or lower prices are more likely in the next week or two.

Stocks Trading Above 150 Day Moving Average Chart:

This chart because it’s based on a very long term moving average (150sma) is a slow mover and does not work well for timing traded. But with that said it does clearly warn you when stocks are getting a little overpriced and sellers could start at any time.

General rule is not to invest money on the long side when this chart is above the 75% level. Rather wait for a pullback below it.

Stocks Trading Above 20 Day Moving Average Chart:

This chart is based on the 20 day moving average which moves quickly. Because it reacts quicker to recent price action it can be a great help in timing an entry point for a market top or bottom. It does not pin point the day/top it does give you a one or two week window of when price should start to correct.

How to Spot and Time Stock Market Tops Conclusion:

As we all know or will soon find out, trading is one of the toughest businesses or and one of the most expensive hobbies that one will try to master. Hence the 95-99% failure rate of individuals who try to understand how the market functions, position management, how to control their own emotions and to create/follow a winning strategy.

With over 8000 public traded stocks, exchange traded funds, options, bonds, commodities, futures, forex, currencies etc… to pick from its easy to get overwhelmed and just start doing more or less random trades without a proven, documented rule based strategy. This type of trading results in frustration, loss of money and the eventual closure of a trading account. During this process most individuals will also lose friends, family and in many cased self-confidence.

So the next time you think about betting against the trend to pick a top or a bottom you better make darn sure you have waited well beyond the first day you feel like the market is topping out. Stocks trading over the 150 and 20 day moving averages should be in the upper reversal zones and money should be flowing out of bonds and other safe haven/defensive stocks to fuel the last rally/surge higher in the broad market.

Also I would like to note that I do follow the index futures and volume very closely on both the intraday and daily charts. This is where the big money does a lot of trading. Knowing when futures contracts are being sold or bought with heavy volume is very important data in helping time tops and bottoms more accurately. And the more experience you have in trading also plays a large part in your success in trading tops and bottoms.

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Gold still has downward pressure to look forward to.....right?

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Tue, 14 May 2013 04:19:00 +0000

Outside of a late week Currencies surge, there were very few fireworks to report in last week’s business. This week however, may be a different story.

Thursday and Friday of last week provided some decent movement in the Dollar and Euro, but it appeared things began in the Japanese Yen, then spilled over. Throughout the last several weeks, there have been multiple attempts to push the Yen to new lows for the year, but it always seemed that somehow the plan was foiled. After the selling pressure triggered stop-orders below support, all other Currencies had to react. There was a firm rebound in the US Dollar and an inverse move in the Euro Currency. Surprisingly, the swings in the Currencies had very little impact on outside markets. In fact, most other sectors of the markets were rather stale and choppy. A Treasury Bond auction had some impact on the 30 year bonds and 10 year Notes, but there was little else in the week that provided any excitement. The same goes for the Gold Futures. Normally, traders would use the direction the Dollar or the Stock Indexes as a guide for what to expect in the Metals, but those former relationships are no longer in play on a day to day basis.

This week, there are a few decent reports in the US and Europe that should provide some decent movement. In the United States, Retail Sales, CPI, PPI, Empire State Manufacturing, and Philly Fed reports will be worth watching. In Europe, traders will be following economic data out of Germany along with European GDP figures to provide sustained market direction in at least the Currency sector, but I am unsure whether or not it will carry over into the Metals.

The Weekly Chart of June Gold shows the Futures prices consolidating around $1425. I still believe that Gold Futures may have some further pressure ahead while the US stock indexes remain stable and strong. One thing that will be interesting to watch would be if the Gold Futures ever return to being a “flight to safety” vehicle if the stock market corrects. I will keep a tight watch on that former relationship as the stock market continues its questionable rally into uncharted territory.

Posted courtesy of our trading partner Adam Hewsion at INO.Com

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Will Crude Oil Futures Stop the Fed’s QE Program?

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Mon, 13 May 2013 05:36:00 +0000

From guest blogger J.W. Jones at Options Trading Signals.......

The sell side analysts and economists are reminding retail investors that risk assets in the United States have been on quite a tear to the upside recently. A correction now lasts a matter of days, if not hours before the bulls push equity prices even higher.

The Federal Reserve is winning the reflation war using cheap money and massive levels of liquidity to help drive risk assets higher and interest rates artificially lower. Unfortunately for domestic investors searching for yield, they find that they are forced to incur higher levels of risk in order to satisfy their growth and income needs. There are significant risks associated with higher than average fixed income returns and the cost will be felt should we see any correction in the future.

However, the Federal Reserve has a history that is littered with dismal results. The purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar has been reduced by more than 90% since the Fed’s inception in late December of 1913. Since that time, the Federal Reserve has stolen more “real” wealth from the American people than any other institution in the history of mankind.

The Federal Reserve has two primary functions. One function is to maintain price stability or in other words to moderate inflation. Clearly over the past 100 years their inflation track record has been horrific. However, the Fed’s recent track record regarding the value of the U.S. Dollar Index has been dismal the past 15 years as shown below.

As can be seen clearly above in the Dollar Index Futures monthly chart, at present levels the Dollar’s overall value has diminished well over 31% since late 2001. I would also draw readers’ attention to the selloff that occurred from late 2005 until the early part of 2008. The selloff during that period of time is important to reinforce my next consideration.

Recently the flow of liquidity has primarily been seen in record low interest rates and a surging U.S. equity market. Nearly every day the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 Indexes make a new all-time high. The question that I would like to posit for readers is how long will it be before the so-called smart money starts looking at the attractiveness of commodities relative to equities?

If the Federal Reserve continues to print money at this pace, what will ultimately stop them dead in their tracks? The short answer is energy prices. The easiest way to stop the Fed’s printing press is to see a massive spike in energy prices. While we often hear that history does not repeat but it often rhymes, consider the price action in oil futures during the same 2006 – 2008 selloff in the U.S. Dollar Index.

It is readily apparent that once oil futures were able to push above the $78 / barrel highs in mid-2006, prices exploded while the U.S. Dollar came under strong selling pressure. The timing could not be more impeccable for the explosive nature in the move higher in oil.

Furthermore, if we move forward to present day price action in oil futures we have a large triangle pattern on the long-term charts. The pattern offers the inflation versus deflation argument that so many economists and strategists are plagued by presently in their analysis.

My suggestion is that watching the price of oil futures is likely going to tell us the intermediate expectation by the market of what lies ahead in the inflation versus deflation debate. The movement of oil futures prices in the intermediate term is likely to be based on which direction the triangle pattern ultimately breaks.

What is obvious about this pattern is that a move that could hurdle $100 / barrel will open up a strong move toward $112 – $120 / barrel. If we were to see a move higher in oil futures that could push above the $120 / barrel price level set back in early 2011 a fierce rally in oil futures could play out.

A strong rally in oil futures will ultimately put the final nail in the coffin for U.S. equity markets and the U.S. economy. Gasoline prices would obviously rocket higher and the U.S. economy would quickly be brought to its knees. The Federal Reserve would be forced to either print more money and run the risk of higher oil prices, or do nothing and run the risk that the equity selloff could intensify.

I want to be clear that I am not calling for a rally in oil futures. Price action could go either way depending on market conditions, but the real question is regardless of which way price breaks in the future, how does it help equity markets? Those evil oil speculators run down by politicians seeking air time on television and radio could be the final straw for Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve.

Whether the future is full of inflation, deflation, or stagflation I am confident that energy prices will play a critical role in price discovery for not just oil and oil distillates, but for the overall domestic economy.

If the Fed does not show constraint at the appropriate time, oil and other commodity prices are likely to remind Chairman Bernanke that the Federal Reserve’s future track record is likely to be as dire as its historical performance.

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Correction near but Bull Market has LONG waves to Go!

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Sun, 12 May 2013 12:58:00 +0000

From guest blogger David Banister at Market Trend Forecast.....

The SP 500 has been on a tear as we all know especially since the SP 500 bottomed at 1343 several months ago. My work centers around forecasting using Elliott Wave Theory along with other technical indicators. This helps with projecting the short, intermediate, and longer term paths in the stock market and also precious metals. This larger picture Bull Cycle started in March of 2009 interestingly after an exact 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire move from 1974 to 2000 lows to highs. At 666, we had completed a major cycle bottom with about 9 years of movement to retrace 26 years of overall bull cycle. That was a major set of 3 waves (Corrective patterns in Elliott Wave Theory) from the 2000 highs to 2002-3 lows, then 2007 highs to 2009 lows. Once that completed its work, we were free to have a huge new bull market cycle off extreme sentiment and generational lows.

It’s important to understand where we were at in March of 2009 just as much as it is today with the market at all time highs. Is this the time to bail out of stocks or do we have a lot more upside yet to go? Our short answer is there is quite a bit more upside left in the indexes, but there are multiple patterns that must take place along the way. We will try to lay those out for you here as best we can.

Elliott Wave theory in general calls for 5 full wave cycles in a Bull pattern, with 1, 3, and 5 bullish and 2 and 4 corrective. We are currently in what is often the most bullish of all the patterns, a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd. In English, we are in Primary wave 3 of this bull cycle which will be 5 total primary waves. We are in Major wave 3 of that Primary 3, and in the Intermediate wave 3 of Major wave 3. That is why the market continues its relentless climb. This primary wave 3 still has lots of work to do because Major wave 3 still has a 4th wave down and a 5th wave up to finish, then we need a major 4, then a major 5.

That will complete primary wave 3. This will then be followed by a Primary wave 4 cycle correction that probably lasts several months, and then a Primary wave 5 cycle to finish this part of the bull market from March 2009 generational lows… and all of that work is going to take time. Once that entire process from March 2009 has completed, then we should see a much deeper and uglier correction pattern, but we think that is at least 12 months or more away.

What everyone wants to know then is where are we at right now and what are some likely areas for pivot highs and lows ahead? We should complete this 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd here shortly and have a wave 4 correction working off what will likely be almost 300 points of upside from SP 500 1343. We could see as much as 90-120 points of correction in the major index once this wave completes. Loosely we see 1528-1534 as a possible top and if not then maybe another 30 or so points above that maximum into early June. This should then trigger that 90-120 point correction, and then be followed by yet another run to highs.

We could go on but then we will lose our readers here for sure, and as it is… this is all projections and postulations, so it’s best to keep the forecast to the next many weeks or few months. Below is a chart we have put together showing the structure of Major wave 3 of Primary 3 since the 1343 lows. Once that Major wave 3 tops out (see the blue 3) then we will have Major 4, then Major 5 to complete Primary wave 3 since the 1074 SP 500 lows. Whew!

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Top 3 Trading Indicators for Profitable & Simple Trading

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Fri, 10 May 2013 04:40:00 +0000

Many investors and traders make the same mistakes assuming that one needs a complex trading system to consistently profit from the stock market. On the contrary, some of the top performing strategies are the ones with the least amount of moving parts and are simple. Because their simplicity they can be easily and consistently followed.

The methodologies we use for timing the market, picking stocks and option trades are very simple because we focus mainly on price, volume and momentum. These three indicators are the key to success. When these are used together you are able time your entries and exits during key turning points, clearly define risk and reward levels while maintaining a clear unbiased state of mind which allows one to trade almost emotionless.

As my Trading System Mastery coach taught me, if you do not have a detailed trading plan which a five year old could trade, then you do not have a solid strategy and will have unnecessary losses and emotional stress.

So here are a couple tips to keep things simple and emotionless:

Our recent trade in Infoblox Inc. (BLOX):

This stock was flashing several signals (price, volume and momentum) that a bounce or rally was likely going to happen within a few weeks. This is a good example of a swing trade based purely on our main indicators.

Our Broad Market Outlook: Current stock market prices are starting to warn us that a market correction is near. You can read more about this in detail in our last report “Stocks Preparing for a Pullback, Buy Bas News, Sell the Good”.

We all know the market works with the saying.....

“If the market doesn’t shake you out, it will wait you out”.

How does this work? Simple really, during down trends and just before a market bottom we tend to see capitulation spikes in selling. These scare the last of the long positions out of the market and suck in the greedy shorts after the move has already been made.

During an uptrend which is what we are in now the market makes spike highs designed to scare out the shorts and get greedy long traders to buy more. Once again after the move has already been made and likely near the market top.

If you are the type of trader who always tries to pick tops and bottoms against the current trend then you may like to know this little tip… The largest percent moves typically happen during the last 75% of the trend. What does this mean? It means when you take your position against the trend trying to pick the dead top or bottom you are most likely going to get be caught on the wrong side of the market in a big way.

Most traders I know based on recent emails have been short the market for 1-3 weeks and many keep emailing me that they are adding more shorts each day because they feel the market is going to top. So me being a contrarian by nature in terms of what the masses are doing, if everyone is still holding on to their shorts we likely have not seen the top just yet. Another 1-2% jump from here should be enough to shake them out though.

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Trading Commodities with any Size Account

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Thu, 09 May 2013 22:44:00 +0000

So many traders shy away from trading commodities because their account balances are just to small to buy and sell oil contracts. They think the only option they have is to buy and hold the most popular ETF's like GLD, SLV or USO. But that couldn't be further from the truth. The guys at Trading Concepts have developed a system that can earn you a regular pay check trading commodities....and equities and currencies as well, no matter what size account you have.

And when we think about why you didn't enroll the last time this course was offered, the only reasons I can come up with is you're either not interested in learning how to make monthly income trading options [with any size account] or, you simply couldn't afford it.

When our trading partner Doc Severson closed OptionsMD, he received a number of inquiries from people who said they would have loved to have been a part of the mentoring program, but couldn't afford the investment.

With college tuitions, saving for retirement, increasing job loss, mounting debt, and many other concerns, Doc's always taken pride in being a part of the solution.

So in a last minute effort to help those who are struggling with getting results, but are committed to change their financial situation with options, Doc has reopened OptionsMD until midnight tonight with one big change.

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See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
The Crude Oil Trader

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How to Trade Gold, Silver & Precious Metal Miners....It's not that Difficult!

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Thu, 09 May 2013 03:06:00 +0000

How to trade Gold and other precious metals related investments is not that complex. But you must be willing to wait for price to provide low risk entry points before getting involved. Precious metals are like any other investment in respect to trading and investing in them. There are times when you should be long, times to be in cash and times to be short (benefit from falling prices).

Since 2011 when gold and silver started another major bull market correction the best position has been to move to cash or sell/write options against your positions to protect your investment until the next trend resumes.

If you take a look at the chart below of gold you will notice that in 2008 we had a similar breakdown in price which purged the market of investors who where long gold. And if you compare the last two breakdowns they look very much the same. If price holds true then much higher prices are likely to unfold at the end of 2013.

The key here is for the price to move and hold above the major resistance line. If it can do that then we are looking at a possible breakout to $2600 – $3500 gold. With that being said gold and silver may just be starting a bear market. Depending what the price of gold does when my resistance level is touched, my outlook may change from bullish to bearish.

Also with last weeks economic numbers getting better in the USA I do have concerns that gold may be starting a bear market but we will not know for several more months yet.

How to Trade Gold Daily Technical Chart:

Major technical damage has been done to the chart of gold. This can be seen as bullish or bearish price action but until price and volume pattern unfolds which puts the odds on the bullish or bearish side I remain neutral.

How to Trade Silver Daily Technical Chart:

Silver is in the same position as gold. The question is if this is a shakeout or breakdown......

How to Trade Gold Mining Stocks Monthly Chart:

Gold mining stocks broke down a couple months ago and continue to sell off. If precious metals continue to move lower then mining stocks will continue their journey down. The chart below made in February and it has in most part played out as expected. While I do not try to pick bottoms (catch falling knives) I do like to watch for them so I am prepared for a new position when the time and chart become bullish.

How to Trade Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks Conclusion:

In short, precious metals continue to be in a down trend. While they look to be trying to bottom it is important to remember that the largest moves take place in the last 10% of a trend. So we may be close to a bottom but there could be sharply lower prices yet.

The time will come when another major buy or short signal forms and when it does we will be getting involved. The exciting part is that it could be just around the corner.

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This crazy robot has been “stealing” profits for years!

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Tue, 07 May 2013 12:00:00 +0000

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Stocks Preparing for Pullback, Buy Bad News, Sell the Good

noreply@blogger.com (Ray C. Parrish) — Sun, 05 May 2013 22:42:00 +0000

The SP500 remains in a strong uptrend, but the index has posted a sizable gains for 2013 thus far so it’s only logical that a pullback within this bull market takes place sooner than later.

With May now upon us and historically prices fall more times than not we feel a 3-4 weeks correction is on the verge of starting. This Friday we just had very strong economic numbers confirming the economy is recovering. This news has sent stocks sharply higher as shorts cover their positions and investors who are not yet long get into position to profit from higher prices. But the herd psychology and their trades are typically incorrect as they invest based on fear and greed. The old saying is buy on negative news and sell on positive news will typically get you on the correct side of the market more times than not if used with price, volume and cycles.

The Technical Traders – SP500 Index Weekly Chart

If we look at the price of the SP500 we need it to breakdown below the recent pivot low before we become bearish. Volume which is not shown on this chart is below average as price moves higher and this is a bearish sign also.

Looking at a basic cycle using the stochastics indicator we can see that the current cycle is starting to turn down. Cycles tend to lead price during an uptrend so we could still have stocks move higher for another week or so but be aware that when price starts to drop its likely a market top. But until then you must respect the uptrend. Stocks can remain overbought and toppy looking for months… so done be gambling and trying to pick a top until we see breakdown start.

SP500 Stocks Trading Above 200 Moving Average – The Technical Traders View

Stocks trading above the 200 day moving average is a great indicator for helping spot broad market underlying strength/weakness. It does lag the market but is still very powerful. The chart below shows this info and my thinking of what is likely to unfold sooner than later though price may still rise for several days yet.

We also use a similar chart for timing swing trades and market tops which are based on stocks trading above the 20 day moving average. This chart is not shown here but is now trading at a level which generally triggers selling/market top.

Stock Market and SP500 Trading and Investing Conclusion:

In short, we are still bullish on the market as we focus on trading with the trend. We do not pick market tops and we do not pick market bottoms. Knowing that stocks make their biggest moves at the end of their uptrend and at the end of a down trend it’s only common sense that risk is extremely high if you are betting against the current trend.

The best thing to do is wait for a technical breakdown and reversal which puts the odds more in your favor with much less risk and typically a clear line in the sand to exit the position if you are incorrect.

The last major stock market top which formed in September of last year had a series of strong news and strong price action persuading the herd to buy stocks. Instead it was the last impulse wave up just before a strong correction took place. That is much like what we see now with the economic news.

Join our free newsletter and stay on right side of the market while reducing your trading/investing stress. My simple yet effective analysis walks you through the market each week without bias. Remember Price and Volume is what makes you money trading NOT news or forecasts.

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