Stock Pursuit

We Could Be Hitting a Bottom

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 09:59:00 +0000

I'm not sure if I trust this guidance fully but if it is a little on there should be a short term or long lasting bottom in financials. Stock prices ultimately can't ignore fundamentals.

full disclosure: no position in any stocks mentioned

Alliance Semi ALSC.pk Dissolving, Giving More Cash to Shareholders

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 04:24:00 +0000

So, I found Alliance Semi ALCS about a month ago at $.79 sitting at a big discount to net cash on its balance sheet. In a press release yesterday they said they had decided to continue dissolving the company and giving cash back to shareholders. This looks really good. Since my first post the stock has climbed to $1.03. The tricky thing here is a lot is tied up in auction rate certificates.

press release

$.23 net cash and cash equivalents per share
$2.08 net cash and short-term inv.

full disclosure: no position at time of writing, may take position in coming days

All The Castles In The Sky CHCI

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 00:08:00 +0000

Up 180% early on the day and amazingly held up very well all day. That kind of chart about always drops like it did earlier in the year. I thought it was going to tank fast and still expect it to but this looks weird almost like it will keep getting carried. Lot of momentum players. CHCI went from .06 to .43 in July. They got a deal with BB&T but c'mon this is a homebuilder penny stock right?

full disclosure: no position

Comstock Homebuilding CHCI

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 16:30:00 +0000

CHCI Supernova, up 150% intraday. It's going to tank. Good short

full disclosure: no position

Quality Systems QSII Came Around Just As Expected

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 01:36:00 +0000

Investors fled QSII last year, sending the stock from the $40s to a low of $27. Contrarian thinking with rational fundamental analysis works again. The stock has recovered.

Upcoming posts on deep value stocks and screens and screeners.
full disclosure: no position

McDonald's MCD, Heely's HLYS, Caribou Coffee CBOU

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 02:10:00 +0000

I have followed Caribou Coffee CBOU a bit for over a couple years. They have actually been profitable before, in the 90s but not for long. The stock has been punished since the IPO but just sharply bottomed in the $1.30s and has rocketed over $3 these past couple months. CBOU has net tangible assets of about $2.59 per share.

They finally started to wake up these past couple years and have done a good job with creating a commercial brand and partnering up. You can see that in the last quarter with commercial sales being up 67%. International same store sales were up 20% and domestic down -1.7%. I'm still not a fan of the industry right now. McDonald's MCD has some to do with that.

I was in a McDonald's for the first time in maybe years a couple weeks ago. I was sitting down talking with my friend in this clean, nice looking McDonald's and an employee walks over to our table and asks us if we are good. Since when does fast food do service. I've never expected a McDonald's employee to come to my table. Amazing. I wonder if you can get that service at a busy Starbucks? This McDonald's I was in also had big ads for their coffee drinks on the front of every register. I'll be keeping an eye on CBOU these next few quarters anyway to see if it keeps getting better.

Heely's
I got a good bit of criticism looking at Heely's HLYS these past months. I found Heely's dirt cheap in early June. A lot of the time it's worth it to play contrarian in profitable or formerly profitable retailers and clothing retailers at discounts to book. I remember mens clother Haggar years back was less than book and even had a dividend if I recall. Haggar got bought out for a nice premium. I'm not sure why Heely's is turning down these bids from Sketchers. It makes you wonder what they are up to. I'd imagine it would be hard for them to enter the skater market with the competition. But, maybe the market is that great for alternative sports like I was saying.

full disclosure: no position in any stocks mentioned

1929 Stock Market Crash Video

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 05:10:00 +0000

I like all the video and interviews with people who were actually there in this good account of the 1929 crash . 36:00 up when the selling started and the bankers tried supporting the market was interesting. Oh, and by the way this doesn't mean I'm calling for a crash now.

Mega Links

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 02:22:00 +0000

Buffett's Lost Early Partnership Letters? Maybe so.

Before He Trades a Carrie Underwood Parody

What's to make of the U.S. economy? at College Analysts and
Living Off Dividends.

Heart Attack Grill restuarant has unfiltered cigarettes and triple bypass burgers served up by nurses in naughty uniforms.

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A Cheap Stocks Watch List

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 03:48:00 +0000

Vicon Industries VII

Delta Apparel Inc DLA

InFocus Corp. INFS
77% below NCAV with plenty of cash. Just announced share buyback.

full disclosure: no position in any mentioned
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GRVY, ETLT

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 05:27:00 +0000

Online game maker GRVY has net cash of $29.61 mil with a $46 mil market cap.

ETLT grew earnings last quarter 36% to $.05 per share and trades for $.44 with $.50 per share in cash.

full disclosure: long ETLT
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Festival of Stocks

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 04:02:00 +0000

Welcome to Stock Pursuit and the 102nd edition of the Festival of Stocks! There are a lot of good articles in this weeks edition covering a wide range of topics. Check them out. If you are new to Stock Pursuit the blog focuses on the stock market and more importantly finding undervalued stocks.

Steve Alexander presents LCA Vision Could Be 75% Undervalued posted at MagicDiligence-Optimizing Joel Greenblatts Value Stock Strategy.

Dorian Wales presents How to Invest Wisely In a Bear Market? posted at The Personal Financier. Bear markets present a challenge for any investor with the end never in sight. How do we invest wisely in a bear market? Good examples here of dollar cost averaging.

George presents Who is Searching for Value Investing posted at Fat Pitch Financials. Using Google Insights for Search, this article looks at the global patterns of those searching for value investing information.

James Cullen presents What Could a Stronger Dollar Do? posted at College Analysts. Commentary on the possible consequences of a stronger dollar.

Dividends4Life presents Stock Analysis: Stanley Works (SWK) posted at Dividends4Life. Stanley Works is a worldwide producer of tools, hardware and specialty hardware for home improvement, consumer, industrial and professional use. Linked here is a detailed stock analysis of SWK and commentary.

Qovax presents More Important Than Margin of Safety? posted at Value Investing and Entrepreneurship by Qovax, a Software Startup.As I mentioned in my earlier post As I mentioned in my earlier post The Best Kept Secret to Successful Investing, the most important rule to remember in investing is never lose money. However, there is one assumption that could throw all your assumptions off course, even with a wide margin of safety.

Dividend Growth Investor presents I got a 10% raise from CSL (Carlisle Companies) posted at Dividend Growth Investor.

Paul Goodwin presents A Beatiful View in War and Peace posted at The Iconoclast Investor. A look at the stock Axsys Technologies (AXYS), a designer and manufacturer of surveillance and imaging systems for the defense industry.

Silicon Valley Blogger presents Financial Bloggers Reveal Their Stock Portfolio Returns (Mid-Year 2008) posted at The Digerati Life.

Contrarian Profits presents How to Profit From OPEC Nations’ 2008 Windfall posted at Contrarian Profits. Think about it this way: At $100 a barrel, the oil exporting countries are sitting on total proven reserves of about $104,000 billion. This means they are worth $104,000,000,000,000.

FIRE Finance presents Investing - Mutual Funds - The Economic Cycle of Sectors posted at FIRE Finance.

Bootstrap presents Olympic Inspired Investing posted at Bootstrap Investing.

Raag presents SEBI approves Application Supported by Blocked Amount (ASBA) for IPOs: Financial Planning demystified posted at RaagVamdatt.com.

Sandy Naidu presents Behavioral Finance-Investor Psychology-Behavioral Finance Stock Market Investment | FutureNestEgg posted at Future Nest Egg.

Personal Finance
Benjamin Dinsmore presents Should You Participate In Your Company's Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP)? posted at Trees Full of Money.If you work for a publicly traded company, you may be eligible to participate in an Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP). For some employees this might be a very lucrative opportunity, but you must ensure that you understand all of the risks (and benefits) of your particular plan before you "opt in".

KCLau presents Frugal living doesn’t mean cheap posted at KCLau's Money Tips.List of benefits of being frugal and what frugality is about.

Jim presents Introduction to Lazy Portfolios posted at Blueprint for Financial Prosperity.

MBB presents Open A Roth IRA Broker Account posted at Money Blue Book Personal Finance Blog.

LAL presents Drunken Wall Street? posted at LivingAlmostLarge.

View other Festivals of Stocks and Submit future articles.

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Heely's Gets $5.25 Bid: Picks Heating Up

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 19:15:00 +0000

If you read the site regularly you know most of the stocks I've followed the past couple months and put up on the site have done very well. I'm especially pleased to see my contrarian's like Heely's HLYS, Think or Swim SWIM, work out these past months. In case you don't know being a contrarian is thinking the opposite of the market. To me it is seeing the value that the market misses because of short-term trading, fear, uncertainty or just its inefficiency. If you follow the market closely looking for "a deal" the market will give you some great ones every so often. You can find a lot of them just reading the headlines.

Here are all the stocks that have been on the site since July 1 (SWIM May) and their percent return from the trading day after the first post to an optimal selling price or today. This doesn't mean that the ideal holding period for every single stock is 2 months or less always. Sometimes after sound analysis it takes even years for the market to come around in some picks. If you ever want to search for a stock you can just enter the ticker symbol in the search box in the upper right corner and hit enter for all the posts.

DLA +26% in 2 days

HLYS +30% Skechers offers $142.8 mil or $5.25

SWIM +36%

AFAM +8%

ALSC.PK flat

HANS +6%

GPTX.OB -11%

FEP +11%

SOAP +21%

WILC +14%

full disclosure: no position in any stocks mentioned
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Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA)

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 05:33:00 +0000

Vanda's schizophrenia drug got rejected by the FDA and the stock tanked below a $1 a share.

At June 30th they had $56.5 million in cash, $6.5 mil marketable securities(company and US treas debt) and $10.17 mil in total debt. This gives us $1.73 per share in net cash. The excerpt below is talking about their cash situation. Looks like they already burned through some but read below about how stable they think it is. I can't vouch for VNDA as a long-term investment but the stock has trucked along here and could hit what a lot of people see as a floor-cash for a little while.

" Holding off on highly anticipated launch plans for iloperidone means that the company can make that $65.6 million -- initially expected to cover the company only for the rest of the year -- last much longer . . .Steven Shallcross, chief financial officer for Vanda, said to estimate roughly $5.5 million in administrative expenses for each of the next two quarters, not including roughly $2 million to wind down manufacturing and research contracts originally aimed at releasing iloperidone. If expenses hold true to those estimates -- that spending plan may change if Vanda pursues more clinical trials for its insomnia drug -- that would leave the company with roughly $52 million by the end of this year. "

http://baltimore.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2008/08/04/daily17.html?ana=yfcpc

full disclosure: no position in VNDA
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Back To The Usual

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 22:14:00 +0000

Shorting financials and going long commodities and ag hasn't been in favor lately but I suspect the long-term macro environment hasn't changed. Until I find some good small to mid-caps MON POT MOS look poised for more if the money swings back.

About a third of the stocks on my watchlists were flying, up atleast 10% during one of these recent big market rally's. I forgot which rally it was but Delta Apparel Inc. (DLA) really surged that day. Keep a eye on DLA when one of these big rally's comes again. Actually, keep an eye on it on up to the 15th when they report earnings. DLA is up over 130% since early June with a lot of institutional support! Guess what kind of stock DLA is? Yep, a cheap one. About $75.2 mil in net tangible assets per share. The whole company is trading for $42 mil at $5 a share.

I fixed the comments form.
That big sell-off in AFAM was a nice contrarian play off the bounce. I always look for panic sell-offs to try and buy on the fear after they bottom. Remember Fremont General.

full disclosure: no position in AFAM DLA MON POT MOS
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Almost Family Inc. (AFAM)

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:00:00 +0000

AFAM looks like a good stock for the long-term at the right price. It has had a nice run and is coming down.

full disclosure:no position
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Vote In The Poll

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 17:51:00 +0000

Take a second and vote in the poll at the top of the home page so I more effectively cater to everyone's level of expertise.

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Alliance Semiconductor (ALSC.PK): Less Than Cash

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 23:47:00 +0000

Jim Cramer: Your Wrong On Benjamin Graham Net-Net's

ALUS Breaking Down

Alliance Semiconductor (ALSC.PK)

$.79 share price
$.23 net cash and cash equivalents per share
$2.08 net cash and short-term inv.
$2.51 NCAV per share

on 33,047,882 shares of Common shares outstanding.

Alliance Semi ALSC.pk has a long story so I'm going to make it brief so we can get to today. They have sold their entire operating business and are no longer a semi-conductor company. In 2007 they received a gain of $6.2 mil on the sale of the semi biz and a $108 mil gain selling Alliance Ventures and Solar Venture Partners. On July 17, 2007, they paid $124 mil in a special one-time cash dividend of $3.75 per share and have made some smaller payouts to shareholders. They are still sitting on a bunch of cash and don't have any definitive plans for it yet.

There is $.23 per share in net cash. There is $2.08 per share in net cash and short-term investments. These figures are after netting out total debt which is only $4.08 million.

They had $1.7 mil worth of Tower Semiconductor stock in their short-term investments. They say as of June 30th they sold off the remaining shares. In the short-term investments they have asset-backed securities with primary holdings consisting of short-term investment grade commercial paper. "We do not have any investments in securities that are collateralized by assets that include mortgages or sub prime debt. Our investments in auction-rate securities are AA-rated as of March 31, 2008, and collateralized by commercial paper, 80% of which must be rated A-1+/Prime-1 or better, and no more than 20% rated A-1/Prime-1."

So what's the problem? The credit markets are horrible and about all of their short-term investments which ideally would be safe are illiquid and inaccessible.
"at March 31, 2008 we held asset-backed auction-rate securities issued by sub-trusts of two master trusts, Anchorage Finance Master Trust and Dutch Harbor Finance Master Trust (the “sub-trusts”)."

"All of our auction-rate securities portfolio has been subject to failed auctions...
we cannot provide assurance as to when liquidity in the regularly scheduled auctions will be restored.
-10k

Cash on the balance sheet increased to $11.7 mil in March from $9.4 mil on December 31 2007. They are still collecting interest on all their investments. Interestingly, short-term investments were only written down by $3 mil to $61.1 mil for the year ended March 31st 2008. The stock could continue to get punished. It will be interesting to see what they decide to eventually do with the cash.

full disclosure: no position in any stocks mentioned
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ALUS Breaking Down

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 20:19:00 +0000

There she goes. Down 18%.

full disclosure: no position in alus
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Golf Stocks Reported, What You Should Know ADGF, GOLF

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 04:10:00 +0000

If you haven't read my golf baby boomer stocks with GOLF, Adams Golf (ADGF), Callaway Golf (ELY) and Fortune Brands (FO) check it out.

Golfsmith (GOLF) reported its second quarter and same store sales were barely positive at .05% and they are guiding to slightly negative same store sales for the rest of the year. Diluted EPS grew a very nice 25%. In retail same store sales are much more important than sales because total sales includes new store openings. If you can't grow your existing stores sales and open new ones to fast to take their place you get trouble. Just ask Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc (KKD) and their chart will tell you.
GOLF's results are not bad for a company trading for less than its net tangible asset value which is $47 mil. The stock bottomed out earlier this year, went on a short roller coaster and is still trucking along.

Fortune Brands (FO) earnings beat estimates but it was ugly. Sales were down in all their segments. Though, they will be sticking around and will do very well once the economy and housing improves. They just increased the dividend 5% on top of that 3% yield. I calculated that there would be a 15% return over the next five years from just dividends if management boosts the dividend 9% a year. I've held FO since 2001.

Adams Golf (ADGF) grew revenue well and gained market share. Adam's is barely a Net with $44 million in NCAV and a market cap of only $41 mil. ADGF looks like a pretty good deal here but I think these golf play stocks bought as a basket slowly over the course of this year will show a solid return in a few years.

full disclosure: long FO
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ALUS Looks Like A Great Short Set-Up, BRNC

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 04:10:00 +0000

Bronco Drilling is now down below $17. Wexford Capital LLC is a 12% holder of Bronco Drilling (BRNC) and plan to vote against the proposed $18.25 bid for Bronco from Allis-Chalmers Energy. Wexford Capital sees Bronco worth $25-$30. Bronco is still growing well and may be a good buy. Helmerich Payne (HP) is another good oil and gas driller.

Alsius Corporation (ALUS) is a medical device company that develops, manufactures and sells catheter products to precisely control patient temperature in hospital critical care settings. They have been losing money every year since inception and the stock is up over 150% in less than two weeks. This will be a good short for a quick trade when it breaks down technically, especially if their earnings are bad on the 7th. In a brief look the balance sheet is healthy and revenue grew year over year.

"We have not yet generated sufficient cash from operations to finance our business... Our cash and cash equivalents on hand, and our projected cash flows, are not anticipated to be sufficient to take us to cash flow positive based on our business plan."

full disclosure: no position in BRNC ALUS HP
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Obscure Small Caps: TIII, SNKTY

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 04:10:00 +0000

TII Network Technologies, Inc. (TIII) would have a triple bottom around $1.30. I'm not sure why the market is punishing them. They more than doubled EPS last year and first quarter sales were up 5%, EPS came in positive at $.01 vs a loss last year. Their business seems somewhat cyclical so I guess that could be it or it's the $17 mil market cap. It is in NCAV territory.

TII CEO Kenneth A. Paladino said,"The improved margins and the operating profit in the current period results from the investment we made last year to consolidate our facilities and create a more efficient business model. As a result, we believe that we will continue to realize improved financial performance for the balance of the year."

Bio-tech Senetek plc (SNKTY.OB) is barely trading for less than net cash and has some really interesting projects including a treatment for aging skin, Invicorp, an intracavernous injection therapy for the treatment of male erectile dysfunction.

full disclosure: no position in SNKTY or TIII
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Mega Links: A Video, Cigar-Butts Beat The Market

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 00:22:00 +0000

Rick talks on a wide range of topics from natural resources, contrarian investing to why he will invest in net current asset stocks. The Video .

A paper that back-tests Ben Graham's net current asset value stocks in different countries over decades and shows they often outperform the market over certain time periods. I'm trying to dig up Henry Oppenheimer's paper in the Financial Analysts Journal Nov-Dec 1986 called Ben Graham's Net Current Asset Values: A Performance Update that did a back-test of holding stocks selling for less than 66% of NCAV from 1970 to 1983.
The stocks were held for one year and replaced with ones with the same criteria. Over the 13 years they had a 29.4% return and beat the NYSE-Amex index which had an 11% return. The funny thing is the unprofitable ones returned 31.3% and the profitable only 28.9%. If anyone has any luck digging this up post the URL in the comments.

Adams Golf is filing their quarterly report on August 4th and have a conference call on August 5th. They expect second quarter revenues to be up maybe as much as 10% year over year. I think I remember them warning a couple quarters ago of some significant expenses in these recent quarters so I'm not sure how great EPS will be. Anyway, it's worth checking out. The stock has bottomed out and has been moving up all month.

Short Ideas
ALUS
RAMR

full disclosure: no position in ADGF, ALUS, RAMR
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Think or Swim Beats, Announces Buyback, Up 17% After Hours

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 23:44:00 +0000

My big contrarian ideas are on a streak right now. If you've been following the site you know about Finish Line FINL which I found at $4. The stock is still going strong up to $10.85 today.

The Think or Swim (SWIM) sell-off got me excited back in May. Earnings came in at $.92 and revenue grew 8%. The stock is soaring after hours to $9.40.

One reader caught some profit in Soapstone (SOAP) after it ran right after the post.

Check out Tim Sykes LiveStock tomorrow at 1pm or the replay.

full disclosure: no position in SWIM, FINL, SOAP
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Think or Swim (SWIM) & Update

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 04:04:00 +0000

Think or Swim SWIM has been on my radar since that huge sell-off back in May. Definitely check out their conference call and earnings release that is scheduled for July 31st after the close. A lot of my contrarian ideas have been working out recently. I did a pretty conservative valuation of Think or Swim formerly Investools way back in early May. I thought the stock looked really good below $7 and that has turned out to be a darn good thesis as the stock has bounced below $7 twice as low as the $6.60s very shortly since that plunge in May. The stock is now trading for $7.87 after a strong week.

Most of my deep asset value contrarian ideas over the last few months have done very nicely or had very good flashes. Finish Line FINL, Heely's HLYS, Soapstone SOAP and even SWIM. Not every stock that I put up has done well so far though. My Feedburner readers hit what I think was a record, 60 the past couple weeks around the accuracy of some of these picks I'm speculating. I'm not trying to play anything down but some of the stocks I post every week and month are partly for organizing my own thoughts and keeping a sort of mental and written journal. Not all of them are at that point and time worth buying or great picks to any extent. Mostly, when I set a price target or get a fair value or write a lot of paragraphs I really like the stock.

I may be posting less some weeks over the next month or so but should get my best ideas up. I was looking at getting short oil around its peak the last couple weeks(Unfortunately, I wasn't following the market as much rather a couple of my positions) with PowerShares Crude Oil Short (DTO) on any weakness. My idea there was just exploiting the speculation but it looks like there is even some shifting in supply and demand going on.

full disclosure: no position in SWIM, HLYS, FINL, SOAP, DTO

Tobacco Stocks May Be Good Safe Haven: Phillip Morris (PM)

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Perkins) — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 04:47:00 +0000

There is a vote on a bill coming up in the House that could allow the government to further regulate ingredients in tobacco products. It may effect menthol which makes up 90% of Lorillard's (LO) sales in Newport. That might be ok though for now because I don't like LO at this price. Better opportunity for for a long-term investment I feel comes from Reynolds American (RAI) with its sell-off and fat 6.6% dividend yield. British American Tobacco PLC (BTI) and Altria Group (MO) also have big yields.

How To Value A Stock For The Long-Term
Phillip Morris (PM) beat analyst estimates last quarter with the help of the weak dollar and is expected to bring in $3.32 per share in the low end of estimates. Based on their recent stock price of $52 the stock has a PE ratio of 15 or flipped like dividend yield an earnings yield of 6.6%. The long-term value investor sees an earnings yield like a bond with an increasing interest rate. Let's say you bought the entire company for $111 billion or $52 per share. You the shareholder would collect that years earnings plus future earnings. Think of a stock like a bond. With a bond, you earn interest at a fixed rate coupled with your initial investment or principal. This determines your return. If a company like Phillip Morris boosts its dividend every year and after a few years the stock is higher than what you payed for it you get a great double digit return. Your opportunity cost would be the less attractive bond and its static payout.

PM has a dividend yield of 3.5%. When you look at a dividend yield on a long-term investment the current yield is important but the rate at which they increase the dividend is also key. When Phillip Morris increases the dividend that 3.5% your getting on your original investment quickly becomes a 4,5,6% yield as they boost the dividend. These dividend returns are fairly low risk and a good protection from inflation. They are better than a lot of yields on other fixed income alternatives. Ten year US treasury bonds have a yield of only 4%.

full disclosure: no position in RAI, MO, LO, PM, BTI
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