Hurricane Dolly Targets Brownsville Texas Residents

Hurricane Dolly’s western eyewall is about to move ashore near Brownsville, Texas and the border. Dolly is moving significantly slower, so major tropical heavy rainfall is expected for likely the next 12 hours. Watching the radar trends shows that Brownsville looks to likely feel the right-front quadrant of the eyewall, which is the strongest onshore winds and surge. Hurricane force winds of 85mph will begin to affect the barrier islands, and surrounding waters just after daybreak.

Dolly’s Core More Organized This Morning

Dolly’s inner core looks a little more impressive and organized early this morning, and the deep convection looks more wrapped around the core on radar. Hurricane Dolly as I said is a slow moving hurricane, and South Texas is going to see some significant heavy rains over the next day.

So, I’m not chasing Hurricane Dolly this time around, but I am closely watching from home early this morning, and I can imagine the sounds and sights unfolding in Brownsville and area beaches, as Dolly churns ashore. It’s going to be a long day for residents of South Texas today, and I wish them the best. Being a Hurricane Chaser, I sure wish I was there to ride the storm out with them.

Look for more updates later this morning and this afternoon.

Dolly Becoming More Organized and Vertically Stacked

Tropical Storm Dolly had a rough day on Monday trying to reorganize, and finally this morning her satellite presentation is looking more impressive. She’s beginning to look more symmetrical, and Dolly’s outflow is beginning to improve as well, especially on the eastern side. I believe we’ll have Hurricane Dolly here before to long, and before the expected landfall on Wednesday. Some of the first outer feeder bands located on the northern side of Dolly will begin to affect much of the Texas coastline, and as far east of western Louisiana. Many of these locations could use these rains, so it’s not all bad news.

Jeff What Do You Think? - Are You Chasing Hurricane Dolly?

My inbox was full this morning with questions of “are you chasing?”, and “ will Dolly become a major?”. First off, I don’t think Dolly has the time to become a major unless she slows enough to remain over the warm water for another 24-36 hours, which is always possible, but she will be closing in on the coast soon. The atmospheric environment could support a major, along with the sea surface temperatures, but just think she’ll run out of time. I could be wrong, as strange things can happen in the Gulf, and have many times in hurricane history.

As for a Hurricane Dolly chase intercept, not this time around. There is a very good possibility she will make landfall south of the border, and that’s a long drive for a category one storm that likely will come ashore out of range of where I would like to be. The season is young, and I plan to save my chasing resources for something a little more impressive in August or September. I know a lot of the veteran Hurricane Chasers are staying home and arm chasing this event. July has been pretty active already, and I have a feeling the peak months will have us Hurricane Chasers busy.

I’ll have some coverage tomorrow during the landfall, and try and receive some reports from South Texas. We’ll have to see how she continues to strengthen throughout the day and overnight, as her inner core becomes well established. So, stay tuned…

Tropical Storm Dolly Heading Into The Gulf of Mexico

Oh Dolly! Tropical Storm Dolly has been one frustrating storm to forecast, track, and follow the last 24-36 hours. Her hide and seek low-level circulation tricks of reformation centers several times with deep bursts of convection, have made it difficult to follow. Much of Sunday afternoon and into the overnight hours, tracking the center was a hard task either by visible satellite, or even recon data. The 11pm advisory from the Hurricane Center last night even was not sure on a center fix.

The upper-level low to the west-southwest likely had a lot to do with Dolly’s jumps northward, that brought her skimming the Cancun coast overnight and looking to spending minimal time over the Yucatan peninsula. Much of the bulk deep convection traversed through the Yucatan channel helping to maintain the convection while the low-level center moved over the Yucatan tip. A very interesting storm indeed, and I’m afraid will get getting even more interesting once in the Gulf.

South Texas Coast Could Be Dealing with a Hurricane Dolly Soon

Forecast computer models have been fairly in agreement of a continued west-northwest to northwest track into the southwestern and western Gulf. With her recent reformations northward, it’s looking more possible that Dolly could be affecting the southern Texas coastline as a hurricane maybe by Tuesday/ Wednesday. Dolly is forecast to intensify once into the warm Gulf waters, with a well developed anticyclone aloft over her helping to strengthen the storm.

A South Texas or Mexico Hurricane Threat? Possible Chase Intercept

It’s a wait and see game at this point on any chase intercept plans for me. If she is to come in close to the U.S. / Mexico border as a hurricane, I’m likely not to chase her due to the chances of her slipping south of the border into Mexico where I chose not to chase.If she’s more of a central Texas Gulf coast storm, than it’s a whole different story. Needless to say, I’ll be monitoring closely over the next 24 hours.

Not to cause any panic, but if I was living between Galveston and Brownsville Texas, Id be paying very close attention to Tropical Storm Dolly. We could be looking at the first U.S. hurricane strike of the season, and this all relies on how strong she gets and how strong the ridging over the northern Gulf coast holds. A lot to wait and see, so keep checking back for more updates.

Fourth Tropical Storm of The Season is Born - Hello Dolly!

Tropical Invest 94L that has been up and down for over a week now as it tracked through all of the Caribbean, has finally organized into a Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm Dolly has now been classified by the National Hurricane Center here at 10:30am ET. Dolly remains very disorganized still, with a exposed low-level circulation, but this will likely change during the day as a new circulation might develop closer to the explosive convection near the Cayman Islands.

Dolly will be running out of water soon with the Yucatan to her west, but if she can make it into the Southern Gulf, atmospheric conditions look prime for rapid intensification by Tuesday. Anywhere from eastern Mexico into Deep southern Texas need to pay close attention over the next few days. Really, even if your in the Yucatan, you need to watch closely today as tomorrow could become a little windy if not more if Dolly organizes in the short-term.

Busy July So Far, Looks To Continue This Week

July has been fairly active already, and with Bertha dieing off over the North Atlantic, and weak wannabe Tropical Storm Cristobal taking in lots of dry air and leaving little impact on the Carolina’s , oh and look what coming off Africa today, could become our next Cape Verde Hurricane in the coming week.

I will be watch Tropical Storm Dolly closely for any signs of the U.S threat this upcoming week and any possible chase intercepts….. Stay tuned!

Third Tropical Storm of The Season Is Born

We now have Tropical Storm Cristobal, a 40mph Tropical Storm slowly moving northeastward @ 7mph along the South and North Carolina coastlines. Cristobal is expected to strengthen some over the next 24-36 hours, and could become a moderate to strong Tropical Storm before pulling away from the coast late on Sunday into the new week. Right now, Cristobal is not expected to reach hurricane status, but forecasting intensity can be very tricky, and with the warm Gulf stream waters nearby, anything is possible.

No Chase Intercept Plans At This Time For Cristobal

Cristobal’s forecast track looks to skirt the Carolina’s, with the weaker side of the circulation moving over the Outer Banks tomorrow. If I was intercepting this cyclone, I’d likely be in Cape Hatteras, but no chase this time around, as I only chase Tropical Storms systems in Florida only. It’s not worth the fuel and time for a weak system. Even with a chance it could become a Hurricane, it’s so close to land that it’s a huge gamble. I’ll be playing this one from home on the computers. Sorry Cristobal, I won’t be after your pictures.

Southeast Asking For Some Cristobal Rains Please

It’s too bad that the storm will be pulling away from the Southeast, as they could really use some deep tropical rains. The drought and low rainfall numbers already this summer is taking it’s toll on the Southeast. A weak tropical system dumping 4-8 inches of rain would help some, but it looks like the bulk of Tropical Storm Cristobal’s rains will remain offshore the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Looking at the latest radar trends, most of the precipitation is falling over parts of eastern North Carolina and the barrier islands. Maybe the circulation will wrap around some of the deeper moisture and help bring in some rains before pulling away in the next 24 hours.

I’ll be continuing to monitor our new buddy Tropical Storm Cristobal, and any news from the coast over the weekend. Stay tuned!

Tropical Depression Three Joins In On The Season

Home brew Tropical Depression Three forms off the Southeast United States coastline overnight. This is the same system that began off the west coast of central Florida several days ago, and brought some wild rain totals for parts of the Sunshine state. After several days of monitoring the system for any signs of tropical formation as it drifted across Florida, it has finally become a weak cyclone.

Tropical Depression 3 is fighting some significant dry air being entrained into the circulation on the western semicircle of TD3. This is forecast to continue and maintain a weak TD or Tropical Storm before being caught up with the next upstream trough. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for parts of the Southeast coastline. It will be interesting to see if this can become maybe Tropical Storm Cristobal over the next 24-48 hours before heading out into the North Atlantic.

More on this system, and our pain in the Caribbean wannabe tropical disturbance later today and over the weekend.

The last few days we’ve been watching several area’s in the tropical Atlantic basin for possible development, but most of these tropical disturbances continue to struggle to organize. Invest 94L at times looked to be getting it’s act together, but has lost a lot of it’s organization over the last day, and the recon flight into the system on Wednesday found no closed circulation and weak winds. Today the system looks even weaker, and skimming the northern coast of South America. This system might have a better chance of development once in the western Caribbean Sea were the surrounding atmospheric environment is not as hostile.

Florida Home-Brew Low Moving Out After Decent Rains

Yesterday, we had a nice little spin over my house here in Southern Florida with a weak tropical surface low that was trying it’s best to organized, but due to proximity to land, it only enhanced Florida thunderstorms and some training cells that dumped over 5 inches of rain. If this had more time over the Gulf waters, this could of organized a little better moving over Florida. This morning the weak circulation has moved off the Florida northeast coast and is weakly spinning off of Jacksonville, FL. Will continue to watch this.

It’s mid July, and the tropics will ramp up here more as we near August. For now, we’ll watch Big Bertha try and hang on in the North Atlantic after her July record breaking for hanging on so long. Cristobal is out there somewhere, it’s just a matter of time.