stupid trader blog

Bear market recovery NOW

kelf — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 05:22:00 +0000

With the recent 22% gain in the market, I wonder if this still a head fake. Many analysts say the market often recover 6 to 9 months before economy recovers. Is it about time? I found this interesting chart site that shows previous bear markets and overall trends:

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Gilead trade

kelf — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 03:56:16 +0000

With the biotech and health sector pulling back, I am interested in looking at this sector again. CELG reported bad tonight and it’s down 12% aftermarket. GILD and the whole sector will pull back again…

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Toronto home price revisit

kelf — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 03:42:55 +0000

The housing market here in Toronto / GTA during Feb and March have had a dead cat bounce, much like the stock market bounce we just have.

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calculate stock’s implied move ahead of earnings

kelf — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 05:24:40 +0000

This is a quick way to estimate how much a stock will move up or down ahead of earnings. It’s much better estimate if the stock ends at the week of expiration…

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corporate bonds ETF

kelf — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 15:47:02 +0000

I am recently looking for a better ETF to park my cash rather than in money market fund. I am deciding between corporate or government bonds ETFs. There are not too many to get into in Canada… mainly …
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Genentech (DNA) updates

kelf — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 05:07:19 +0000

Well, on Friday noon time, Roche increase their takeover bid from $86.5 to $93. Like I mentioned in earlier post , I changed some trade configurations just in time….

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How to spot bottom (again)

kelf — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 04:14:28 +0000

Just reading an article that has simplier terms on how to spot bottoms of the current crappy economy:

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Put Ratio Backspread

kelf — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 18:21:18 +0000

Last week I posted a link to Call Ratio Backspread, here’s the other way around with a Bearish thought. With DOW down below 7000 and S&P below 740 breaking all support, this strategy might profit well, and still give protection on any short lived rallies: (more…)

Genentech (DNA) trade

kelf — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 17:34:17 +0000

Here are some renewed thoughts on Genentech (DNA) trade:
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Healthcare sector sells off

kelf — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 03:40:11 +0000

Huge sell off for Health & biotech index this afternoon after Obama & co. decided to shave off spending on healthcare! Seems like everything sold off except for Genentech (DNA), which I bought some this afternoon….
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