I have spent over a decade being depressed about the state of world affairs.  It started with Whitewater and the Republican attack on a very successful Democratic presidency.  Then, shall we even speak of the Bush nightmare?  Yes, it is true his administration introduced clean diesel legislation, but on every front imaginable, the Bush administration waged war on our environment, on our civil liberties, and on other countries.  Join me for a party on 1-20-10 as we celebrate putting one year behind us on those memories!

Dee Hock is a brilliant management thinker and business leader.  He created the Visa bank card system.  In his later years, he has turned philosopher.  His book Chaord, outlines a new vision for creative sharing of power and wealth.  (Chaord is a mash-up of chaos and order.)  One of my favorite mantras is from Dee:

“Things are far too bad and it is much too late for pessimism.”

Sustainable Futures is focused on positive and practical solutions for a smooth transition to a prosperous post-carbon world.  That is why I am so excited by Our Choice.

“Properly understood, the climate crisis is an unparalleled opportunity to finally and effectively address many persistent causes of suffering and misery that have long been neglected, and to transform the prospects of future generations, giving them a chance to live healthier, more prosperous live as they continue their pursuit of happiness.”

The book takes 100 pages to catalog our sources of energy and another 60 pages to describe how we use energy.  Gore then focuses on the tough issues like politics and how our way of thinking of the crisis impedes progress.

One fascinating chapter uses neuroscience to explain the challenge of generating urgency about the crisis.  Human are predisposed to short term thinking; it is hardwired in our brains to respond to leopards, spiders, and humans with weapons.  For instance, “If a snake were to slither into this room, we wouldn’t debate it.”  The climate crisis does not stimulate these semi-autonomous brain regions because the crisis is so abstract and seemingly in the distance.

Fortunately humans have evolved a newer part of brain, the lateral pre-frontal cortex, which distinguishes our species from other animals.  The pre-frontal cortex has an ability to make decisions based on values and goals that are slow to form, but once formed, are deeply held over long periods of time.  Think of how long the Great Wall of China or Notre Dam Cathedral took to build!

More specifically, the dorsolateral pre-frontal cortex (DLPFC) prefers to remain on course once we make a decision.  The DLPFC, located just above the temples, can get weakened by information overload, which is much higher now than in previous centuries.  Our consumption and media-saturated culture make it difficult to sustain long-term initiatives against distant and mis-perceived threats.

In short, brain science can help us fight inertia and also pinpoint the likely roadblocks.  Negative, terrifying information can lead to procrastination and denial.  As I mentioned above about my own mental states, I have “been there, done that.”  One response to inconvenient information is to hope for unrealistic or magical fixes from technology, which can also delay making the tough, but doable, choices today.

The best advice is to:

“Strengthen the linkage between solutions to global warming and solutions to other challenges (national security, food safety, independence from foreign oil) that seem more immediate and are more likely to induce a desire to make the necessary changes.”

I hope Al Gore can add a National Book Award Prize for Best Non-fiction Book to his Oscar and Nobel collection.  It is well-deserved!

I want to provide a perspective that is insightful and illuminating by going beyond the shallow coverage provided by the mainstream media. I will have a more in-depth analysis entitled “What Happened at COP15?” available in January. For now, here’s a short summary:

COP15 was unprecedented outpouring of concern, support and effort by tens of thousands of people in person and many more via virtual and electronic participation. The US had an enormous presence there. (Remember, it has been less than a year since we had a president who didn’t believe in science or international cooperation!) In addition, Congress had a sizable presence in the final days. These politicians came in order to make a stand for the future. John Kerry has been leading the all-important fight in the Senate and he gave a terrific speech, worth reading here.

“If Dick Cheney can argue that even a 1% chance of a terrorist attack is 100% justification for preemptive action—then surely, when scientists tell us that climate change is nearly a 100% certainty, we ought to be able to stand together, all of us, and join in an all out effort to combat a mortal threat to the life of this planet.”

The formal UN meeting was only one of a number of important gatherings that all happened at the same time in the same city. Businesses, local governments, activists, and NGOs all had their own gatherings that produced conversations, connections and commitments to action. Deniers and skeptics were dismissed as irrelevant. And perhaps most importantly, the world’s efforts to fight climate change may transform into other forums that are more effective.

The forces of goodwill and change are unstoppable.

Summary of UN Outcomes

The Copenhagen Accord is the result of important steps forward by the United States and most of the countries around the world. Here are a few highlights of noteworthy developments, as reported by US Climate Action Network.

“The Accord is tantamount to a global prenup. The marriage agreement is still to come.”

Unprecedented Public Support for Strong Climate Action
• 125 Heads of state
• 45,000 summit attendees
• 100,000 marched in Copenhagen calling for strong action
• 15 million petition signers on the tck, tck, tck petition

For the first time, the majority of the world’s countries have offered to reduce their emissions using verifiable targets.

Agreement on the basic architecture and financing for international forest protection.

Transparency in measuring emissions reductions between US and China.

Agreement on clean technology deployment mechanisms to the developing world.

US Climate Renewables and Efficiency Deployment Initiative (REDI) – multi-lateral commitments over 5-years to scale up renewable energy.

Commitment to fight black carbon (soot that harms public health and exacerbates climate change).

Phase out of fossil fuels – US reaffirmed commitment made at G20 to phase out of fossil fuels.

COP15 was not a failure, but much work remains.

He is taking a position as Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding at Pace University’s Pace Academy for Applied Environmental Studies.  As reported by the Columbia Journalism Review, Andy’s editor at the Times, Erica Goode, confirmed that Revkin would be leaving the staff, but continuing to do his Dot Earth blog for the Times.  Let’s hope that Andy can increase his insight and contribution once he is away from the crush of the daily news cycle.  I will certainly miss his influence at the Times. Since he took a buyout in a staff reduction, it is unknown whether the Times will replace him.

I am continually seeking useful, credible and reliable information about political, social and environmental trends – I am not alone in this quest.  Interest in climate change (at least amongst a subset of people who seek to stay informed) is at an all-time high.  This is true for both the pro-science crowd and for climate deniers (have you noticed that most comments in on-line news stories about climate change are from deniers?)  Where do you turn to for accurate and useful information about news and analysis?  Write a comment here – I will prepare a post compiling a list of the best sources.

The Climate and Energy Funders Group is a network of grant-making organizations that has official accreditation from UNFCCC. The group is having a full day and night program of events each day.  One could spend all day in rich conversations without ever leaving the Vartov Center!

One higlight was a breakfast with Jet Li and Al Gore. Jet gave a moving talk about almost being swept away with his children in the tsunami and his dedication to the betterment of humanity.  He spoke of “micro-philanthropy” encouraging individual Chinese to donate, even 1 yuan (14 cents) at a time. Jet made me laugh and cry a few times.  Al’s talk definitely made me weep (on the inside).  His comments were off-the-record so I can’t detail them here.  His breadth of mastery of so many subjects, including politics, science, history, culture and social change, was inspiring.  I believe he needs an even bigger stage to spread his work.

Christiana is an alternative community living in Copenhagen who are hosting their own events, curiously named Climate Bottom.  I haven’t had time to get over there.  They have a presence in one of the city squares offering cheap foods, free seeds (ahem) and a deeply-held conviction about the ills of over-consumptions.

Hopenhagen is hosted by the city of Copenhagen and has a number of corporate sponsors like Siemens and Coke. It has a fair-like atmosphere, with  activities (hop on a bike and pedal fast enough to light a Christmas tree) and exhibits.  After spending most of time with really smart (and I mean really, really smart!) experts, it was so refreshing to see locals and tourists enjoying the sights (and hopefully the messages) of a prosperous, low-carbon world. The city of Copenhagen is pledged to be carbon-neutral by 2025.

Here is a group of schoolchildren playing with an interactive Google Earth layer that displays the impacts of sea level rise.  Also check out Bellona that is promoting 101 Solutions, an excellent roadmap of real solutions.

I have been in a state of grief and despair about the sorry state of dialogue about climate change in the United States, especially during this recent kerfuffle over leaked scientific emails.  See my post about that here.  It has been so refreshing to be in a major city festooned with positive messages like “seal the deal” “bend the trend” and “we’re committed, are you?”  Here is the banner opposite Hopenhagen.

Other banners and exhibits around town.  The picture on the bottom is the large, outdoor display of 100 photos entitled 100 Places to Visit Before They Disappear.

I will add more photos to this post at the end of the week, to keep the entire photojournal in one post, and re-post the link.

Morning woke cold, overcast with a resounding 10 minute ring of church bells. I thought it was a reprise of the 350 demonstration, but it turns out that is normal custom here every morning.  Security at the Bella Center was stricter, due to the arrival of high-level ministers.  The UN has been absolutely overwhelmed with the numbers of NGO observers seeking access.  The Climate and Energy Funders delegation has moved its briefing and events to other venues around the city.

I attended a panel entitled “Environment as a Corporate Strategy”.  Afterwards I had a good conversation with Daniel Kreeger, Executive Director of Association of Climate Change Officers.  Many organizations are developing a sustainability strategy but do not have the talent or understanding of where to focus their efforts.  President Obama signed an executive order directing all federal agencies to develop a sustainability plan and assign a senior official to be accountable for implementing and reporting on progress.  The federal government is the largest customer in our economy, so this is a very significant development.   Daniel and I discussed the concept I am developing for EDF of an open-source repository of sustainability training materials.  We both see a great need for offering training and executive development for this emerging profession.

One of the absolute highlights of the trip so far was a boat tour to an offshore wind farm.  Each of the 20 wind turbines generate 2Mw of power.  It is absolutely stunning to stand underneath these monsters that whirr day and night, producing clean, renewable energy.

Jim - CPH offshore wind farm

20 wind turbines in a row

On the boat I spoke with Jon Isham, economics professor at Middlebury College, whose students started 350.org and Kris Stevens, Executive Director of Ontario Sustainable Energy Associations.  Both men are deeply committed to solutions that get us to the low-carbon world we need.  Jon is launching a new journal; a hybrid between a peer-reviewed academic journal and a general interest magazine.  Kris was responsible for the passage of an innovative law in Ontario that will allow citizens to become conservors and generators of clean power and build a strong local economy.  Listen to his story here.

News from the official talks do not sound promising, as reported here and here (free log-in required).  A mass protest is being organized tomorrow within the formal talks and by activists outside the Bella Center.  In my delegation, opinions about this action are mixed.  Some say a bad deal (CO2 reduction targets too low; not enough protection for developing countries) is better than no deal and the disruption will come at the worst time possible.  Others say, enough is enough – time to stand up for meaningful change.  Thoughtful leaders such as James Hansen and Bill McKibben argue a weak deal is unacceptable and will be tantamount to a suicide pact for low-lying nations.

I am attending a small breakfast with Al Gore tomorrow and will listen closely to his perspective.  Stay tuned for another post about Gore and his current work:

“Not too many years from now, a new generation will look back at us in this hour of choosing and ask one of two questions. Either they will ask, “What were you thinking? Didn’t you see the entire North Polar ice cap melting before your eyes? Did you not care?” Or they will ask instead, “How did you find the moral courage to rise up and solve a crisis so many said was impossible to solve?”

]]> http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/12/cop15-blog-post-2/feed/ 4 http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/12/cop15-first-blog-post/ http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/12/cop15-first-blog-post/#comments Mon, 14 Dec 2009 17:46:54 +0000 Jim Jubelirer http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/?p=187 The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the convening body of the Copenhagen climate talks.  This is the 15^th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (meaning countries), so it is called COP15.  Right now, there is so much attention focused on these talks that the terms Copenhagen and COP15 are used interchangeably.  The actual governmental meeting is COP15 but there are numerous other conferences, events, and gatherings in the city during these 2 weeks.

My trip began appropriately by reading an in-flight publication distributed by COP15.  Copenhagen had its first frost-free November in history.  There was a wealth of green and climate related advertising in airport.   Verizon had an ad featuring sustainability efforts; I have not seen this ad run in US.  Church bells ringing 350 times Sunday afternoon roused me from a post-flight recovery nap.  Why 350?  That is the atmospheric concentration of CO2 (measured in parts per million) beyond which we risk irreversible change.  We are already at 378 ppm and rising sharply, so the 350 movement really has a lot to offer.

There were no hotels available when I booked my trip, so I am participating in home stay organized by New Life Copenhagen.  My host, Jorgen, is a nurse at the hospital and I am staying in his spare bedroom.  He has been very generous, down to loaning me a complete set of clothing until my suitcase arrives.  Having a local host adds much color to the trip as compared to staying at a hotel.

Bella Center, the COP15 venue, was sized to house approximately 10% more people than last year’s meeting in Poznan Poland, but instead got 3 times the response.  There are 15,000 people like myself who received credentials from one of the 900 non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that are officially accredited by the UN.   Official delegates, media, staff and security bring the total to 30,000, but the Bella Center only holds 15,000 people!  I just learned that NGOs will be limited to 7,000 people Tuesday and Wed., 1000 on Thursday and only 90 on the final day, presumably because of increased security for all the heads of state that day.

This morning I waited 3 hours in freezing cold at Bella Center to queue up for credentials.   The long line was peaceful and friendly, despite the bitter wind, and populated with diverse assortment of interesting people.  I spoke with an Australian who is leading the Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute in Paris, an independent consultant for the Dutch government who works with Eastern European governments to develop climate action plans, and a representative from the mayor of Reykjavik, Iceland representing local elected officials.

The entire city is alive with banners, slogans, flyers and ads promoting the need to take aggressive action on climate change and urgent pleas to “Seal the Deal”.  100 Places to Remember Before they Disappear had an outdoor display of high-resolution photos from one hundred different places around the world in risk of disappearing or seriously threatened by climate change.

Tomorrow I am attending a panel about environmental strategies at HSBC, HP, and others, then a tour by boat of a large, off-shore wind farm.  My suitecase has now arrived so I have clean clothes and can start taking pictures.  I hope to post again Wednesday as my schedule and internet access allows.

]]> http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/12/cop15-first-blog-post/feed/ 1 http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/12/just-the-facts-maam/ http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/12/just-the-facts-maam/#comments Wed, 09 Dec 2009 18:17:38 +0000 Jim Jubelirer http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/?p=182 The Web 2.0 rises with a tsunami of (over) information, dis-information and attention-sucking links and hyper-links.  At the same time, traditional media becomes more static, unbalanced and sensationalized.  My goal in writing this blog is to provide credible, realistic information and pointers to others who are doing the same.

One common theme in my work is that a small, but very passionate and vocal, minority of people really want to prevent progress on solving real problems that affect all of us. Read my post here about Climate Cover-up that details the particulars.  The modern media echo chamber presents inaccurate information that distorts our ability to have dialogue about real solutions.  With the climate change talks underway in Copenhagen, news reports about lack of belief in global warming are on the rise.  Let’s look at two recent examples.

Fox News is a wonderful media outlet for partisan believers – it attracts viewers who have a predisposed world view.  Fox also has the power to influence the undecideds and influence the coverage done by other media outlets.  A recent Rasmussen poll claimed that “59% of all Americans think it is at least Somewhat Likely that scientists falsify global warming claims.”  The good folks at Media Matters for America monitor, analyze, and correct conservative misinformation in the U.S. media.  Their analysis of the Rasmussen poll shows that not only was the math wrong, but the survey instrument itself was flawed.

The incident of stolen emails from climate scientists is now being called “SwiftHack” due to the similarity to the Swiftboat campaign that derailed John Kerry’s presidential bid in 2004.  The post entitled The SwiftHack Scandal: What You Need to Know does an excellent job explaining the reality behind the smear job.  There is also a website devoted providing accurate information to countering the lies and distortions this event has caused.  Elizabeth May, of the Green Party in Canada, actually read all 3,000 hacked emails.  She is the only person (that I am aware of) that has actually done the research and she clearly demonstrates that no cover-up happened.  As for the “black-balling of a scientific journal”, the journal in question, Energy and the Environment, is an industry-funded vehicle that  is not included in Journal Citation Reports which covers the top 6,000 journals. The Swifthack scientists were actually trying to prevent work that did not pass the proper test of peer-review (commonly called “junk science”, but more like PR than real research) from being using in the IPCC report.  Why can’t the mainstream media do some useful investigative reporting about the actual facts?

The real facts are clear – this has been the hottest decade on record.  Don’t be distracted by the soundbites and pseudo-controversies.

]]> http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/12/just-the-facts-maam/feed/ 1 http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/12/137/ http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/12/137/#comments Mon, 07 Dec 2009 16:16:12 +0000 Jim Jubelirer http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/?p=137 Do we only have fourteen days to seal history’s judgment on this generation, as the Guardian and 56 other newspapers are proclaiming today?

In an unprecedented joint effort, an editorial calling for decisive action in Copenhagen will be published tomorrow by 56 newspapers around the world in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. Most of the newspapers have taken the unusual step of featuring the editorial on their front page.

The Guardian is one of the leading media outlets covering global warming, with 6 specialist reporters and a dedicated environmental website.  They led a team of editors across the globe to write a text that papers in different parts of the world could agree to.  It wasn’t easy:

“After a series of discussions with scientists and other experts, we circulated a skeleton argument to the group of papers who had signed up early, and the comments that came pouring back quickly offered a taste of what the real Copenhagen negotiations must be like: our Polish colleagues wanted an acknowledgment that poorer new EU countries should not have to bear as much of the coming burden as ‘Old Europe’; our Indian partner suggested that the argument reflected a “lopsided” developed world perspective and needed to say more about what the rich world must do; a Chinese editor wanted to flag the importance of addressing “exported” emissions – those created by the rich world increasingly consuming goods manufactured in developing countries.  Some thought the editorial’s assessment of the consequences of inaction was too gloomy; some not gloomy enough.”

Anyone studying the list of newspapers behind the editorial will quickly spot one glaring gap: the absence of any first-rank US paper. This should come as no surprise to anyone following this story; news coverage in the US has consistently lagged the coverage in other countries.  Many academic researchers having demonstrated that news media’s supposed preference for “balance” compels them to include dissenting opinions, even if those opinions are from a fringe group.

This supposed “balance” that actually leads to inaccurate and distorted coverage is well-documented in a terrific new book entitled Climate Cover-up; The Crusade to Deny Global Warming. The author, James Hoggan, runs a PR firm and does an excellent job exposing the tactics and people leading the climate change denial industry.  The recent Climategate scandal is a perfect example of spreading fear and doubt in the public consciousness.  However, even a cursory study of the actual issues involved (check out Diane Rehm’s interview with John Podesta and Michael Mann) quickly reveals this is an outrageous attempt to shift the discussion away from the real issues.

I recently wrote a post about the most recent update from IPCC scientists. These leading scientists tell us the turning point must come much sooner than any leading politician is willing to state. We need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. The world has to transition to a post-carbon economy (meaning near zero emissions) by 2050.

Keep your eye on the ball and don’t be distracted by Climategate.  The unprecedented cooperation of newpapers all around the world is a sign that people are coming together to make a difference.

]]> http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/12/137/feed/ 0 http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/11/bringing-green-to-the-masses-bringing-the-masses-to-green/ http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/11/bringing-green-to-the-masses-bringing-the-masses-to-green/#comments Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:20:24 +0000 Jim Jubelirer http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/?p=90 The struggle to create support for a more prosperous, sustainable future is similar to the landscape of a modern Presidential election: the winner will be the one who has the most appeal with the soccer moms and Joe 6-packs in the middle (of the country and in the middle of the political spectrum.) Not all people are created equal and rigorous attitudinal research (fancy word for analyzing the data from surveys) can identify explanations for ways that people are different. Let’s explore a segmentation scheme based on people’s attitudes and awareness of environmental issues and purchase proclivity towards green products and service. These segments are my synthesis of the major public opinion polls on the subject. (Stay tuned for an upcoming post that will go into more detail about the best public opinion tracking polls.)

• True Green – the archetype is the Birkenstock-wearing, Prius-driving, vegetarian, although that caricature is a bit shallow. True Greens skew older, female and educated and are motivated by both personal and global concerns.

• Light Green – Light Greens care about the environment and have some knowledge of conservation and responsible consumption. They are less willing to pay a price premium or go out of their way to buy green, but will reliably shop green if all other things are equal.

• Light Brown – Light Browns are motivated by pragmatic concerns and will only buy an environmentally preferable product if other features/attributes perform well.

• Dark Brown – Dark Browns rarely make environmental considerations in their purchase decisions and/or don’t really care about larger, more global concerns. Dark Browns skew older, male, and predominantly vote Republican.

• Deniers – actively seek to deny the reality of global warming and strongly resist all environmental messaging. For instance, “Global Warming’s Six Americas” found that 7 percent of Americans believe that global warming is not happening, is not a threat to people or nature, and strongly believe that it does not warrant a national response.

It is easy to blame large polluters who have been supporters of conservative groups that spread disinformation about global warming. One of our cultural memes is “Well, Big Oil/Coal/Wall St. have the politicians in their pocket and they just do what they want.” It is important to realize that Deniers may be motivated by ideological concerns (shrink government, lower taxes, etc.) or political concerns (working to make Democrats look bad or weak) and not only by economic concerns. Whatever their motivations, Deniers use well-understood tactics of public persuasion based on Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD). The reason why it is so important to understand the FUD strategy is that it is particularly effective with the Light Browns, who are already biased towards a world view based on personal sovereignty that doesn’t respond to a traditional green appeal.

A Swing Voter is important because the base in each party is not large enough to win the election. In the same way, the Swing Buyer is important to a company wanting to grow a sustainable business because the Greens (at least the True Greens) are not a large enough segment upon which to build a major brand.

One of the key factors for making genuine progress in environmental protection is to create messages that resonate with these specific target audiences. This task will require identifying the key values of the “swing voters” (those who don’t have a strongly held position) and mounting an aggressive attack against the deniers. The deniers have been successful in promoting the view that global warming is a hoax because they find a receptive audience in those who really aren’t sure about the science, or don’t know whom to trust. Countering the well-funded industry of global-warming deniers will help to help push consumer demand for environmentally sustainable goods and policies.

ecoAmerica is doing some of the best research to uncover people’s deeper underlying values and motivations. They conduct a series of research studies that provide information and insights to advocates who want to increase the effectiveness of their efforts. The American Climate Values Survey is a must-read for anyone who wants to learn techniques and messaging that increase public support for environmental protection. The ACVS is a huge survey (240 questions!) completed by a nationally representative sample of 1700 people and was last fielded in April, 2008. While public perceptions have evolved in the past year and half, the ACVS still has great insights. Some of their key findings include:

• The single biggest indicator, by far, of Americans’ feelings about global warming is their political affiliation (guess which way that runs!)

• Education is strongly correlated with acceptance of the reality and responsibility of global warming

• Men and women have some very different perspectives on the climate crisis: Women are more likely to believe global warming is real, harmful, that we need to do something and that addressing it will have benefits. Women also have a more positive view of being environmentally friendly.

• Of all the attributes tracked by ACVS, the one with the least differentiation was income. Controlled for education, there really isn’t much difference at all between the lower income groups (<$50k) and the higher income groups (>$100k).

ecoAmerica partnered with Strategic Business Insights to use the Values and Lifestyles (VALS) system, a groundbreaking segmentation model that goes beyond demographics and attitudes to offer an understanding of the underlying psychological motivations of different groups of Americans.

One troubling finding from the VALS research in the ACVS study was that relative to other VALS surveys, the ACVS had a high percentage of people responding, “I have no idea” to survey questions. These response rates likely indicate:

• a low level of interest in global warming

• lack of engagement because a need for simple answers cannot be satisfied

• an abdication of responsibility because they feel overwhelmed.

So, clearly we have our work cut out for ourselves to fight against the deniers’ FUD strategy and general apathy and overwhelm to create messages that work. Check out ecoAmerica’s site to learn more about their work and the programs they are involved with.

]]> http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/11/bringing-green-to-the-masses-bringing-the-masses-to-green/feed/ 0 http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/11/its-getting-hot-in-here/ http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/2009/11/its-getting-hot-in-here/#comments Tue, 01 Dec 2009 02:49:05 +0000 Jim Jubelirer http://www.jimjubelirer.com/blog/?p=76 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the largest, most complex collaboration of people working together on a common problem from all over the world. The scientists involved with this work received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for their work.  The IPCC process is not perfect; finalizing all of the findings takes a lot of time and then the final report needs to be reviewed by the respective scientists’ home countries. They issued their 4th major report in 2007, which reflected work that was completed a few years prior. In the meantime, many hundreds of papers have been published about human-induced climate change. The next full report is not due out until 2013.

A group of scientists from IPCC just released an updated report that synthesizes the most current policy-relevant climate science. The report has been purposefully written with a target readership of policy-makers, stakeholders, the media and the broader public and is being released just in advance of the major negotiations in Copenhagen in December.

The key findings from the report are easy to summarize, but the implications are troubling:

• Global ice-sheets are melting at an increased rate
• Arctic sea-ice is disappearing much faster than recently projected
• Future sea-level rise is now expected to be much higher than previously forecast.

Here’s more sobering news from the report:

• The Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets and Arctic sea-ice are are melting at a rate much greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

• Global sea-level rise may exceed 3 feet by 2100, with a rise of up to 6 feet considered an upper limit by this time.  This is also higher than previously projected.

• Beyond 2100, sea level rise of 5-10 feet must be expected over the next few centuries.

• In 2008 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were ~40% higher than those in 1990. Even if emissions do not grow beyond today’s levels, within just 20 years the world will have used up the allowable emissions to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

These leading scientists tell us the turning point must come much sooner than any leading politician is willing to state. We need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. The world has to transition to a post-carbon economy (meaning near zero emissions) by 2050.

Why is this so important?  Several vulnerable elements in the climate system such as ice sheets and rain forests could be pushed towards critical thresholds (“tipping points”)if temperatures continue to rise.  The Copenhagen Diagnosis reminds us that “Waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.” No credible description of the post-tipping point scenario exists because scientists don’t like to speculate – they only want to deal in verifiable, observable phenonoma. All we know is that if run-away climate change happens it will be much worse than the already-terrifiying scenarios described above.

To give you another dose of reality, let’s look at recent US pronouncements about emissions reductions targets. The Obama administration offered to curb US emissions by 17 percent by 2020. The EU countries have already had this pledge for years and now we are finally catching up, right? Well, not exactly. Obama’s pledge is against a 2005 baseline, whereas the EU goals is against a baseline of 1990. What Obama has offered is only cut emissions between 4-7 percent as compared to 1990, a level that is wholly inadequate to avoid the tipping points. It is a start, but is not nearly enough.

In future posts I will be discussing the (lack of) progress of climate change legislation in the US and the pivotal role that a handful of conservative Senators have played in preventing any meaningful progress towards achieving a sustainable future for our successors.

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