Talking Points Memo

The Rules

2012-02-10T03:24:06Z

I was talking to some reporters last night and the topic turned to the 2008 Democratic primary race and how important the actual convention and delegate rules became as the battle lasted into the summer. As we know, it never came to that. By the time the convention rolled around all the players had accepted that Barack Obama had won the nomination. But we may be getting to a similar point with the 2012 GOP race.

Now, to be clear, I don't expect a brokered convention. I don't expect a late savior entry. I expect that after a very bumpy ride Mitt Romney will amass enough delegates to secure the nomination and that will be it.

But we're hearing enough (highly unrealistic) talk about late entries or brokered conventions that it's worth giving a look to just what the rules governing these quite unlikely scenarios would be.

One scenario I already know ain't going to happen: the late entrant scenario. Our team looked at the filing deadlines in all the states a few weeks ago. And upshot is that it's simply too late. In a big chunk of the states, the filing deadlines have passed. You can't get on the ballot. And in a week or so more, most of the big states will be closed. So even if Ronald Reagan rose from the dead and wanted to get in, he just couldn't get on the ballot in enough states.

So what about the brokered convention? Two key questions come to mind. And I don't know the answers to these yet, though I think we'll probably put a reporter on the question tomorrow. First, do the rules allow the convention to choose a nominee who has not run in any state contests? And how much freedom do the individual delegates have under this year's rules at the convention? Can they decide to vote for whoever they want or are they bound to vote for the candidate they were selected to represent? And do the rules change after one or more ballots?

In the real world, I think the whole scenario just wouldn't fly in this day and age. Romney, Newt and Santorum spend hundreds of millions of dollars, get tons of people to the polls and it all ends up with nominating Mitch Daniels by acclimation in Tampa? I just don't see that.

But again, curious to know just what the rules are.

Epiphany

2012-02-10T02:30:14Z

I saw the news this evening from PPP that their first night in the field with a new national poll has Rick Santorum as the new nationwide leader. So the Romney argument that Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado were just outliers or lightly-attended caucuses (plausible arguments in themselves) just won't cut it.

But of course this isn't about Rick Santorum who is clearly a 2nd or 3rd tier candidate, it's showing the depth of Romney's weakness as a candidate -- both as a candidate in this particular political moment and simply as a candidate for office in general. It even occurred to me that 'Santorum' doesn't mean all the those ucky things you see on Google. It's actually Republican for "F' it. I just don't like Mitt Romney."

I feel like Champollion deciphering hieroglyphics.

Presented By:

2012-02-10T02:30:14Z

CPAC In 100 Seconds

2012-02-09T23:13:32Z

Want to catch up on today's CPAC events but fear for your sanity/ immortal soul? Have no fear, TPM's Michael Lester has boiled the day down into 100 mind-blowing seconds.

Gulf War

2012-02-09T22:34:59Z

A Mississippi lawmaker wants to rename the Gulf of Mexico. You'll never guess to what...

Ah, CPAC...

2012-02-09T22:22:10Z

A conservative pundit at CPAC fits Rachel Maddow and contraception into the most outrageous line of the day (so far).

Hot Conservative Love

2012-02-09T21:35:36Z

Top dating tips from CPAC.

Conservative Heartthrob

2012-02-09T19:51:16Z

The iconic Rick Santorum sweater vest in cardboard cutout form -- and other pics from CPAC.

Getting Meta

2012-02-09T18:13:30Z

When attack ads attack attack ads.

iFile

2012-02-09T17:16:25Z

The FBI releases the file it had on Steve Jobs.

'If You Go To Kill The King...'

2012-02-09T17:12:57Z

Why Planned Parenthood knew it had to hit back hard when Komen pulled its funding.

Presented By:

2012-02-09T17:12:57Z

All The Fun Of The Fair

2012-02-09T16:02:52Z

It's the first day of CPAC and already its organizers are trying to work out how to avoid having their straw poll overrun by Ron Paul supporters. Meanwhile, you can follow TPM's live coverage of the forum via our livewire.

'Don't Do It!'

2012-02-09T00:43:14Z

Pro-choice Republicans flip out over their leadership's latest stunt.

Bubble Boy?

2012-02-08T19:58:19Z

Today Mitt Romney is arguing that there were attacks from Rick Santorum this week that he didn't get a chance to rebut -- thus in some way explaining his three defeats on Tuesday night. But I see a different pattern. It's not unusual for also-rans to opportunistically pick up a caucus here and there, even when there's a more or less anointed frontrunner. And it's true Romney didn't campaign or spend aggressively in those states. But the frontrunner, already prepping for the incumbent, shouldn't need to go full court press just to stave off resounding defeats at the hands of a palpably second or third tier opponent. It looks more like Mitt Romney -- at least in this cycle -- is a sort of electoral Bubble Boy, unable to exist in the natural political environment without a protective layer of massive SuperPAC spending.

Look at the story in Iowa, South Carolina, Florida and Tuesday's contests. Each tells the same story.

Commander-in-Geek

2012-02-08T19:39:30Z

Beware the marshmallow launcher at the White House science fair.

The Horror, The Horror

2012-02-08T18:25:11Z

Fox News guests discover a new "nightmare" for New Yorkers: overpaid hotel maids.

What a Loss

2012-02-08T18:15:21Z

One of Congress's top Islamophobes decides to leave Congress.

All In

2012-02-08T17:36:24Z

House GOP goes all in to make political hay of the Obama administration's contraception decision.

Madvertising

2012-02-08T16:23:57Z

Benjy Sarlin surveys the career of GOP ad man Fred Davis. His is the mind behind the controversial "Chinese peasant" super bowl spot, not to mention many other all-time classics including the infamous "Demon Sheep" ad and Christine O'Donnell's infamous "Witch" message.

Presented By:

2012-02-08T16:23:57Z

Romney's Even Bigger Problem

2012-02-08T14:28:05Z

Even before Mitt Romney hit that big pothole out West last night, he was already hitting a pretty bad trend in the probable national matchup coming this Fall. Just what's driving it is not totally clear. Or rather, it's not clear which of several probable culprits are most to blame. But it's a good bet that it's a mix of the Bain/tax rate issue, a series of gaffes and more than anything the perception of a rebounding economy and rising opinions of President Obama.

So let's look at the numbers. For some time, President Obama has been running just a hair's breadth ahead of Romney. But starting a little more than a week ago the two started separating and the current TPM Poll Average has President Obama with an almost 7 point lead over Romney, in other words a real lead.

Here's the trend chart for the year to date.

As you can see, the shift comes about a week ago. It is mainly reliant on polls from three organizations: ABC/WaPo, Ipsos/Reuters and somewhat surprisingly Rasmussen. And it's just recent. So you really need more data to have real confidence that this is a new direction in the campaign as opposed a mere blip.

But the trend is backed up by a series of other trends that have become very visible over the last few weeks. One example is the favorability rating of both candidates. Until quite recently Romney was the only Republican contender with a net positive favorability rating. But since the beginning of year his net favorability number, according to the TPM Poll Average, has ballooned to more than a 17 point deficit. In contrast, President Obama's net favorability rating is a net positive 5 points according to the TPM Poll Average.

Next we have what is likely the most important metric of the campaign: President Obama's Job Approval rating. (Job Approval rating is different from favorability.) Here President Obama has been underwater for most of the last two years, with a couple brief exceptions tied to major news events. His disapproval peaked during the debt ceiling debacle. But it's been tracking up ever since. And he appears to be close to moving back into positive territory. Our trend analysis still has him just above one in negative territory. But over the last few days several polling organizations have had him in positive territory for the first time in months or years.

Here's the trend for the last 24 months.

The bigger picture seems to be driven by two basic factors: Obama being lifted by a rising economy and a series of negative stories about Romney (gaffes, Bain, 15% tax rate, questions about core beliefs) that are making the public like him less the more they see him. Regardless of the situation in the primaries, if Romney can't bet everything on a bad economy, he's in serious need of a Plan B for November.

The Six Million Dollar Sheriff

2012-02-08T14:08:25Z

Sheriff Joe Arpaio's ambitious bid to fund candidates nationwide via his own PAC not working out so well.

Giving in on the Pill?

2012-02-08T14:01:03Z

Is the White House prepping to compromise on contraception?

Swept

2012-02-08T13:26:41Z

Picking through the shards from last night's Mitt crash, another data point leaps out: He didn't win a single county in Minnesota.

As I mentioned last night, Mitt didn't win any counties in Missouri either.

#InevitabilityFail

2012-02-08T11:53:11Z

The coup de grace to Mitt Romney's very bad night: He finished third in Minnesota.

Insert 'Rickroll' Joke Here

2012-02-08T06:18:32Z

Santorum takes all three of Tuesday night's contests.

All That Glitters

2012-02-08T05:14:05Z

Romney's night of humiliation is capped as someone moves to glitter-bomb him following his Denver speech.

Wipeout

2012-02-08T03:40:07Z

It's looking like Romney will not win a single county in Missouri.

Presented By:

2012-02-08T03:40:07Z

Minnesota Goes To Santorum

2012-02-08T03:27:58Z

Make that 2 out of 2 so far for Rick Santorum. Missouri and Minnesota, with Colorado still to be decided.

That Doesn't Make Sense

2012-02-08T02:44:02Z

The word coming from the Mitt campaign is that Missouri doesn't really matter because there are no delegates there and they didn't commit time or money. The problem, though, is that Santorum doesn't really have any time or money to commit there either. And if you're the frontrunner, the presumed nominee, you get clobbered in a swing state just because you didn't aggressively campaign there? That's a very, very low standard. Santorum is clearly leaning hard on evangelicals. And really this isn't about Santorum. It's about Romney. Absent crushing spending and a week or so to focus on a single state, Romney seems to have a really rough time. That's bad, especially in the Midwest where a Republican candidate has to run strong. And especially when he's faltering in national polls versus President Obama.

Mitt Hoping for Jazz

2012-02-08T02:31:26Z

I'm looking at the county by county breakdown of the Missouri numbers here. And there are no results in from either Kansas City or St. Louis. I'd figure those have to be better for Mitt than most of the rest of the state. But but at the moment, with 23% of precincts reporting, Santorum is up over Romney by over 27%. So they're going to have to be radically different or Mitt's toast.

In WTF Territory?

2012-02-08T02:16:19Z

As they say, we're still really, really early. But we have 12% reporting in Missouri and Santorum is up over Romney by over 24 points. That's a big spread even with so few results. It's a similar margin in Minnesota, albeit with a meager 3%. If Romney loses 2 of 3 of these contests, what's the headline tomorrow morning?