Talking Points Memo

2010 or 2013?

2009-11-09T02:35:40Z

TPM Reader BK disagrees that health care reform's greatest vulnerability will be the 2010 election.

Actually, its greatest point of vulnerability will be the 2012 election, since much of it doesn't take effect until 2013. The mandates that will drive up costs will take effect before then--young people will pay much more since premiums will be equalized for all age groups and private companies will have to cover even sick people. Since there will be no opt-out or no competition, they will be able to charge whatever they want.

By 2012, the exchanges that will get small business owners and employees insured are not supposed to be set up. So basically, all the politically and economically costly things go into effect first, and the beneficial things (insuring people and taking burdens off small business) will not have materialized. It's perfect for demonization.
I'm sorry, but the 2012 campaign is going to be all about repealing health care reform, and it will find a sympathetic audience if the schedule isn't fixed.

This is actually a point I've given a lot of thought to. And it's an important and complicated point. It's true that key parts of the legislation don't go into effect until 2013, or at least that's where things stand right now. It less clear to me that a hypothetical unified Republican government in 2013 would be able to repeal the law just as the most beneficial parts of the legislation are coming into effect.

But it does make me wonder why the schedule can't be tweaked at least a little. Certainly changes as big as these can't happen over night. But you could see where early 2012 as opposed to 2013 could make a pretty big difference.

One Vote on Health Care Reform

2009-11-08T20:41:35Z

There are many events in life that, while more or less predictable in themselves (House passage of the health care bill), turn out to have an impact and significance that is only truly apparent after they occur. The passage of the House health care reform bill last night strikes me as one of them.

The precise contours of the post-conference legislation remains uncertain in a number of key respects, especially in regards to the public option. But having watched the events leading up to the House vote and the politicking in the senate, I have little doubt that a broadly similar bill will pass the senate, be reconciled with the House bill in a conference report and bill that will be signed by the president in relatively short order.

The reason these sorts of events happen so infrequently is that they are like colossal ships or vast armies, very difficult to build or assemble and get on their way but also extremely difficult to stop or turn once they are under way.

As Bill Kristol noted in his famous 1993 GOP strategy memo on the Clinton health care reform initiative, the key danger Republicans face from health care reform is precisely that the public will like it. And I suspect that the more forward thinking and perspicacious of his partisan colleagues today see it the same way.

If a health care reform bill passes, it's greatest point of vulnerability will be in the 2010 election. That's not only because of the on-going fall-out of the 2008 financial crisis, which sets the Democrats up for a tough midterm election. It's also because a lot of the key reforms in the legislation don't kick in for a few years. But even if you assume the worst possible outcome for the Democrats in 2010, loss of both houses of Congress, Republican majorities still wouldn't be able to overturn the law because President Obama would veto their repeal.

Last night's vote makes me think this will happen and it will be a genuinely historic development.

Obama To Senate: Your Turn

2009-11-08T18:22:11Z

President Obama in a short Rose Garden statement just thanked lawmakers for taking a "courageous vote" on health care last night. He said he is "absolutely confident" the Senate will do the same.

He didn't single out Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA), the only Republican to break ranks and support the measure.

Read more about Cao here and learn his take on the vote here.

Obama Releases Statement

2009-11-08T04:52:14Z

Read it here.

Done Deal

2009-11-08T04:14:43Z

House passes Dem health care bill by a vote of 220 to 215.

One Republican voted for the Democratic bill: Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA). See this post from earlier this evening on the background to his vote. Here's Cao's statement on his vote.

Late Update: Here's the roll call on the final vote. And for those keeping score at home here's the roll call on the Stupak abortion amendment.

Dem Bill Passes

2009-11-08T04:08:08Z

218 for; only one Dem yet to vote.

Late Update: We have one GOP vote for -- presumably that's Rep. Cao (R-LA), though no confirmation on that yet.

The final vote appears to be 220 - 215.

Final Vote Live Blog

2009-11-08T03:58:06Z

10:58 PM: With amendments and procedural mumbojumbo out of the way, the actual vote is about to get underway.

11:01 PM: Not too much to talk about on a final vote live blog. Currently at 196 for, 29 Dems voting against.

11:03 PM: Currently ten more votes needed and 14 Dems still to vote. Presumably they're going to do this on a straight 218, just like in the Clinton years. No 'wasted' votes.

GOP Bill Goes Down to Defeat

2009-11-08T03:30:21Z

GOP alternative amendment (i.e., the House GOP's bill) goes down to defeat 258-176.

Late Update: Rep. Tim Johnson (R-IL) was the sole Republican to vote against the Boehner bill. No one seem really clear as to what his reasoning was. As I noted below, Rep. Cao (R-LA) is the only member of the Republican caucus believed to be in play. And he voted for it, though in a high stakes case like this it would not be surprising to see him vote for both.

Presented By:

2009-11-08T03:30:21Z

Tweet of the Day

2009-11-08T03:20:38Z

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) ...

I wonder if Michele Bachmann wearing a lei (on the Floor) means she has recognized that Hawaii is a state and President Obama is a citizen?

Just Ugly

2009-11-08T03:08:20Z

Scenes from today's debate that you really just have to see. Video after the jump.

One GOP Vote?

2009-11-08T02:36:01Z

Roll Call reports that the House Dems may be able to pick up one Republican vote for the health care bill: Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-La.) A former Jesuit seminarian, the Dems move to allow a vote on the pro-life "Stupak amendment" appears to have been key for Cao.

But also remember Cao's political position.

He was elected in 2008 in an overwhelmingly Democratic and African-American district in New Orleans. And the only reason he was able to do so is that he was running against Rep. Bill Jefferson (D-LA), who at that point was under indictment but not yet convicted of various public corruption charges, the most well-known of which was tied to that notorious $90k found in his freezer. To understand Jefferson's political position at that point, remember that the crux of the accusations against him first surfaced in 2005. So despite his popularity and strong political base at that outset, his constituents had had three years to absorb the seemingly overwhelmingly evidence of his corrupt acts.

Cao's ability to hold that seat against a non-indicted Democrat seems highly questionable. It went 75% for Obama. And the White House has been in close touch with him through the day. An aide tells Roll Call, "Rahm is going all in to get him."

Those would be some interesting conversations to listen to.

Dems Have 218, Long Night Ahead

2009-11-08T00:27:56Z

A Democratic source tells us the House, which has been debating the health care bill all day, will be able to pass the plan tonight.

The source said they have the needed 218 votes.

Coming up is debate about the amendment dealing with abortion, and then the Republicans will get an hour to present their alternative plan.

Votes will start around 10 p.m. The final vote might happen close to midnight.

Watch Live

2009-11-07T18:49:52Z

Video:House debates health reform bill.

Pelosi: We Got This Thing

2009-11-07T18:27:32Z

Pelosi emerges from caucus meeting confident that House bill will pass tonight.

Big Day

2009-11-07T15:27:33Z

After a late-night deal setting framework for debate, the House will vote today on its version of the health care plan. Before the vote, Democrats are getting a little last minute pep talk from President Obama.

Read our primer here, and if you want to see government in action today, click on C-Span.