Life of a tennis betting guru

Olympics 2008 - In sight of profit

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 07:35:00 +0000

It looks like a return to the green figures this week in the Beijing Olympics with Fernando Gonzalez being the man to guarantee me at least a decent profit.

Those that read my Betfair pre-tournament advice and backed Gonzalez at [126] will be getting extremely interested right about now as the Chilean goes on court against James Blake in the semi finals.

I got on each-way at that huge price, so a simple back of Blake at [evens] today has ensured me a very handsome profit on the week. I'm hoping that Gonzalez does the business though obviously and creates a bumper payout.

I've been on Betfair Radio this week discussing the event and those listening would have heard me bigging up the chances of both Gonzalez and Nalbandian, although in typical style, the Argentine went out to Gael Monfils about an hour later.

Oh well, you can't win them all and I did advise punters not to touch Venus Williams at [5.5] for the Ladies Singles Gold Medal - she went out to home favourite Li Na yesterday.

As for Mr Federer, well he is incredibly vulnerable at the moment and although it was a bit of a surprise to see the Swiss beaten in straight sets by Blake for the first time in their career meetings, it barely registers as a shock these days.

Nadal and Djokovic meet later today after the Gonzalez match and Djokovic has a live chance of an upset in this one at [2.7].

The Serb has a 4-2 lead in their hard court series and won their last encounter in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago, but Nadal was clearly below par physically that day and there should not be too much read into that.

It's a tight match though and who can say what sort of condition Nadal is in after his tough schedule, so it's worth backing Novak at the current price.

Over in Washington, Andy Roddick continues to struggle and needed to save match points against clay courter Eduardo Shwank and next plays Viktor Troiki for a place in the semis.

In the other half, it looks to be between Tommy Haas and Juan Martin Del Potro, who has now won 16 straight matches.

LA Wrap and Olympic/Washington advice

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 07:42:00 +0000

As I think I said at the start of the Countrywide Classic, it's not an event to stake too much cash on and I'm very glad that I didn't.

My long shots were beaten in the first round and with the Olympics about to begin, my interest in the tournament dwindled to very little very quickly.

Incredibly, Juan Martin Del Potro won his third straight title by beating Roddick in straight sets in the final and his turnaround in form has been little short of amazing over the last couple of months. The Argentine has now won his last 14 consecutive matches.

As far as the Olympics are concerned, my outright bets and long shots can be found on the Betfair site here: - http://betting.betfair.com/olympics-beijing-2008/tennis/

The gist of it is small stakes on Fernando Gonzalez [126], Stanislas Wawrinka [160] and David Nalbandian [55]and my possible first round upsets can also be found there.

Amidst all the excitement of Beijing the tournament in Washington has been rather forgotten and to be frank there's not much to get excited about in the event.

The protagonists are more or less the same as LA and quality looks sparse, but the layers make Roddick favourite over Del Potro, which is surely an error on current form.

It's a lot to ask for Del Potro to win again, but he's so hot right now that he's hard to ignore in a poor event at [4.0].

As for long shots, the only one that raises a slight amount of interest is the in-form Denis Gremelmayr at [41.0] and he could be worth a very small investment, but other than that Washington looks one to skip.

Countrywide Classic - No repeat of '07

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 15:14:00 +0000

Well, my theory that genuine class should shine through against lesser opposition failed to bear any fruit last night, as Seb Grosjean went out in three sets to Vinny Spadea in L.A.

I said yesterday that I expected the match to go the distance, but I didn't expect to be severely out of pocket at the end of it!

The little man from Marseille lost the decider 6-3 and with it went my outright punt and individual wager of the day.

It looks like Grosjean's shoulder injury hasn't cleared up yet after all!

The only upside was Wayne Odesnik's victory over Bobby Reynolds at [3.0] which sweetened the pill somewhat and corrected some of my Grosjean losses.

Elsewhere, multiple backers were let down by Donald Young's shock victory over Tommy Haas at around [7.0] although I'm happy to say that I wasn't one of them on this occasion.

As predicted, Carlos Moya had his work cut out against Xavier Malisse, with the Spaniard eventually prevailing in a final set breaker.

Tonight's line-up sees four uneasy favourites in Mardy Fish, Feliciano Lopez, Marat Safin and Fernando Verdasco all trying to progress to the quarter finals and at least three of them are expected to make it.

Fish has been in putrid form lately and won't be carrying any of my cash at [1.55] against Spadea, particularly given their record of tight encounters against each other.

The other three should prevail, but I'm always wary of backing players in their first match of a tournament (Grosjean aside of course!), so perhaps a small treble on Lopez, Safin and Verdasco could be the order of the day.

Hopefully Lopez will at least make it to the second round to keep my outright interest at [28] going after Grosjean's disappointing effort.

Countrywide Classic - Day Two

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 13:26:00 +0000

No individual match wagers yesterday then, as there were some distinctly average-looking clashes in LA last night, but tonight looks a bit more interesting with my outside bet taking centre stage.

Seb Grosjean is surely overpriced to take out Vinny Spadea and [2.34] looks to be worthy of a medium sized investment.

The injury problems that Grosjean has suffered this season means that there is an element of guesswork involved in assessing his fitness, but based on ability there's no contest between the Frenchman and Spadea.

The pair know each other well, both living in Boca Raton, Florida and have played five times - Grosjean having the edge at 3-2 - with Spadea winning their only recent encounter.

The American however has a dismal record in LA, having lost in the first round three times in the last four years and six times from his ten starts here and at 34 years old, he's not likely to improve on that significantly.

The fact that this is Grosjean's first competitive match since pulling out of Wimbledon means that much is taken on trust and it might take him three sets, but the former Masters Cup finalist is expected to prevail.

Other matches of interest today include John Isner v Marat Safin and Wayne Odesnik v Bobby Reynolds.

The outsider could well prevail in each of these two clashes and with Safin's propensity to become annoyed against big servers, it could pay to side with the 6 feet 9 inch Isner at [2.58].

Odesnik v Reynolds should be much closer than the prices suggest and a back to lay policy on Odesnik [3.2] could create a tidy profit.

Carlos Moya could also struggle against Xavier Malisse, but given the injury problems that the Belgian has had of late, it might be wise to simply watch that match.

At his best Malisse would be more than a match for Moya on this surface, however he did retire in a challenger in his last outing a couple of weeks ago and it's asking a lot for him to take out Moya first up here.

Murray's Masters and on to L.A.

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 07:09:00 +0000

So he's done it at last!

Andy Murray made the step up to become a Masters Series winner by beating Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati last night and at the same time earned me a profit on the event.

I've been saying all tournament that Nadal's punishing schedule would let him down and that an outsider would take this event and so it proved, although whether you consider Murray to be a genuine outsider is up for debate I guess.

Anyway, my each way bet on the Scot at [7.5], as advised when Federer was defeated came in with no real problems and saved my bacon in what is often a trappy tournament to predict due to the heat, humidity and close proximity to other events.

All of which means that the tour rolls on to Los Angeles for the Countrywide Classic - an event which holds great memories for me after I backed Radek Stepanek at 50-1 outright last year and the Czech came in by beating James Blake in the final. Good times.

This year's field has a rather depleted look about it due to the Olympics starting in four days time and Andy Roddick is the only top ten player to have swerved Beijing and opted to stay at home.

A-Rod is a rather meagre looking [2.78] to bring home the title in an event he has only entered three times in his career and never made it further than the semi finals (in 2002, lost to Jan-Michael Gambill).

This doesn't look to be a tournament to get too heavily involved in, so I'm having a couple of small bets and hoping for a similar result to last year if at all possible.

Feliciano Lopez has all the talent in the world, but rarely displays it except on the big occasion or when he has nothing to lose, but with all eyes on Beijing, I reckon this is the sort of event he might play well in.

The Spanish lefty is in the tougher top half of the draw with Roddick, Safin and Haas, but is decent value at [26] to cause an upset and add to his solitary career title in Vienna in 2004.

A bigger priced punt is the [65] I had matched about Sebastian Grosjean and if he's back to full fitness after an injury ravaged season, then that could represent value.

The Florida resident is in the easier-looking bottom half of the draw and still possesses the ability to win a title like this if the body will allow.

As far as the first round matches are concerned, nothing really appeals today, so I'll keep my money in my pocket and stick with the outright wagers for now.

Cincinnati Masters - Back in the game..

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 12:28:00 +0000

I knew my perseverance would pay off eventually and I was proved correct when Ernests Gulbis took out James Blake at [2.54] in the third round of the Cincy Masters yesterday.

That win brought me back into the black and it could even have been so much better, had Robin Soderling taken either of his two match points against Philipp Kohlschreiber instead of wasting them and going down in a final set breaker.

Andy Murray eased past Dmitry Tursunov as well, so all in all it was a very good day, although a certain Mr R Federer wouldn't think so after he was blasted out of the event by Croatian beanpole Ivo Karlovic.

Fed won more points in the match and wasn't broken by Karlovic, however the big man took it in a final set breaker, which all means that Nadal is a bigger favourite than ever he was and is now trading at around the [1.71] mark.

It also means of course that Rafa will take over the world number one mantle that Fed has held since about 1975, as the Spaniard closes in on another title.

I predicted at the start of the event that this could be one for the outsider - I just failed to pick the right ones and who in their right mind would have had Nicolas Lapentti, Carlos Moya and Kohlschreiber down as a potential Cincy champ??

Not me for one, but Andy Murray must fancy this now, with only Moya and the winner from Kohlschreiber and Karlovic in the way of him and a Masters final.

With Nadal and Djokovic still in the event, I wouldn't be rushing to put the mortgage on the Scot collecting the trophy this week, but he must be a solid each-way bet to get to the championship match.

As far as the quarter finals go, it might pay to stay with Gulbis in his match against Djokovic.

The Latvian knows his old hitting partner's game well and he gave Novak a very decent match at Roland Garros.

Gulbis has been steadily on the upgrade of late, while Djokovic looks less than 100 percent at the moment and there are undoubtedly many worse [4.5] shots around today than Gulbis.

I'll be having a small wager and leaving the other three quarters well alone.

Down and out in Cincy

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 11:07:00 +0000

Well as far as bad days go, yesterday ranks fairly high on my list. Injuries, illnesses and unfathomable defeats all contributed to a poor day's viewing and a distinctly profit-free tournament thus far in the heat and humidity of Ohio.

Gilles Simon got the ball rolling by hitting the wall after his efforts of the past few weeks and the Frenchman could barely move by the end of his straight sets defeat to James Blake. All of which meant that my wager of the day turned to dust very quickly.

The players are picking up injuries left, right and centre at the moment and goodness knows how they're going to fare in Beijing next week if they think the conditions here are tough!

Both of my remaining outright bets went down in disappointing fashion, starting with David Ferrer, who managed to become Nicolas Lapentti's first top ten ranked victim on hard courts in over five years.

I watched this one live and it was poor from the world number four and Lapentti goes through to the third round in Cincy for the first time in nine years.

Ferrer actually won more points than his opponent, but could only convert three of his eleven break point opportunities and faltered at the vital times.

Speaking of faltering, it's never a shock to hear that word linked to a performance from Richard Gasquet and he surrendered meekly by being bageled in the second set after losing the first on a breaker to Dmitry Tursunov.

Least surprising news of the day was that of the Tommy Haas v Gael Monfils clash ending in a retirement.

In hindsight, my bet of the day should have been that match to end in any other method than a victory for either player. This time it was the Frenchman that quit, citing a stomach problem.

Ferrer's defeat also downed my treble and left me staring into the abyss of a red bank balance, which is never pretty.

I'm sticking to the belief that this was merely an abborition and I have a feeling that Blake might find young Ernests Gulbis a bit too hot to handle this evening, which will put me back on track for the week at around [2.5].

I backed the young Latvian when he took Blake out at Wimbledon and there's no reason why he can't repeat the dose here and send Blake home early.

Gulbis came from match point down to beat Arnaud Clement yesterday and although that was a long match, I think that the price is too good to refuse. Yes, Blake played well yesterday and he has a decent record here, which is why I backed him last year, but I can see Gulbis causing him many more problems than a clearly below par Simon.

Elsewhere, Robin Soderling looks good to take out Philipp Kohlschreiber at [1.57] and Andy Murray [1.41] should prove too good for Tursunov, providing he remains injury free.

That looks a solid double and I might even throw Fernando Verdasco into the mix to beat Lapentti at [1.43], although Novak Djokovic is poor value to defeat Andreas Seppi at [1.18] after his display against another Italian, Simone Bolleli, yesterday.

The best match to watch should prove to be the night match between Haas and Nadal and with the Spaniard complaining bitterly about the schedule, it could prove an interesting evening's viewing.

Cincinnati 2nd Round

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 09:57:00 +0000

Well I'm one down and two to go after the first round was completed in Cincy last night, as Janko Tipsarevic's injury problems continued.

The Serb, who hobbled out of Wimbledon at the hands of Rainer Schuettler last month, struggled with an ankle problem in succumbing to Carlos Moya in straight sets and it looks like he could have long term issues with his fitness to deal with.

It was only a minimum bet though and my other two march on - Gasquet prevailed against Michael Llodra after the French lefty quit with an arm injury in the third set of their first round clash.

The number 11 seed can consider himself fortunate, as he was having one of those Gasquet days and he will need to improve to take out Dmirty Tursunov later tonight.

David Ferrer is also through to face an unexpected second round opponent in Nicolas Lapentti, after the veteran from Ecuador took out in-form Marin Cilic in straight sets.

There appears - on paper at least - little to stand in the way of Ferrer and a semi-final clash with presumably Rafa Nadal now and I'm quite surprised that the Valencian is still available at around the 130 mark.

My only advice from yesterday was Gilles Simon to take out Nicolas Kiefer, but the Frenchman ended up with a somewhat easier task after the German pulled out, so no profit to report from that wager.

There are some tasty looking encounters in the second round today though and I like the look of Simon again, to take out an out of form James Blake at the nice price of 2.70.

The contrast in form between these pair is stark and although Blake likes it here in Cincy, his form in the straight sets thrashing by Kiefer in Toronto was abysmal and Simon's match yesterday will have handed him some valuable court time in these testing humid conditions.

Elsewhere, a treble of Ferrer [1.19], Berdych [1.35] and Gulbis [1.33] should prove profitable.

Cincinnati Masters - Outrights and overview

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 13:26:00 +0000

After the disappointment of Novak Djokovic's exit at the hands of Andy Murray in Toronto, I think it's time to have a small investment in a couple of relative outsiders here in Cincy.

I backed James Blake at around 80 last year and he obliged by making it all the way to the championship match, where the New Yorker was outclassed by Roger Federer in straight sets, but it was a handy profit and I'm going a similar way this year.

With Fed looking all at sea and somewhat shell shocked by the loss of his Wimbledon invincibility and Rafa Nadal surely conserving his considerable energy reserves for the Olympics after winning in Canada, it might be an idea to have a look at a couple of alternatives.

The three that leap out at their current prices are David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet and Janko Tipsarevic.

After a wretched season where once again his desire and fight have been called into question, Gasquet has started to play well of late and was the only player to take a set off Nadal in Toronto.

The Frenchman is in the section of the draw that houses Nikolay Davydenko, Andy Murray and Tipsarevic and on a course for a semi final match with Federer, so 90 is worth chancing on a mercurial talent that surely must reach a Masters final soon.

Ferrer is overpriced at 130 and has little in his section to worry him other than perhaps Marin Cilic and Fernando Verdasco and he would meet Nadal in the semi's should the world number one in waiting get past Germans, Tommy Haas and Benjamin Becker as seems likely.

Nadal's body is more likely to let him down than the Teutonic abilities of his early opponents and Ferrer could be the one to take advantage.

A real longshot could be Janko Tipsarevic at around 300 and the Serb possesses all the ability in the world without perhaps the physical endurance for a sustained effort in the majors.

He was perhaps a bit rusty in Canada when he lost to Nicolas Mahut and he's worth a chance at a big price to upset Moya and Davydenko and if he manages that, then he'll be dangerous.

As far as individual bets are concerned on Tuesday, I like the look of Gilles Simon to avenge last week's loss to Nicolas Kiefer at 2.08 and that's worth an investment.

Time for the year end profit & loss

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 17:33:00 +0000

As another season draws to a close, it's time to look at how I've fared recently on outright tournament betting, as I won't be getting involved in the annual lottery of the Shanghai jamboree.

Wimbledon Ladies - backed Venus Williams at 20, 50 & 55 - result - win

Bastad - backed Almagro at 9 & Verdasco - result - Almagro runner up

Newport - backed Nicolas Mahut at 5.0 - result - runner up

Gstaad - backed Mathieu at 15, Andreev & Youzhny - result - Mathieu win

Stuttgart - backed Nadal at 4, Acasuso at 64 & Monaco at 54 - result - Nadal win

Countrywide Classic - backed Tursunov at 9 & Stepanek at 50 - result - Stepanek win

Kitzbuhel - backed Starace at 25, Eschauer at 50 & Patience at 100 - result Starace runner up

Indianapolis - backed Ginepri at 40 - result - loss

Umag - backed Djokovic at 2 - result - loss

Washington - backed Haas at 6.5 - result - loss

Sopot - backed Andreev & Acasuso - result - Acasuso runner up

Montreal - backed Gasquet at 50 & Baghdatis/Canas/Haas/Murray at 100 - result loss
Montreal - backed Djokovic at 14 - result - win

Cincinnati - backed Mathieu at 150 & Blake at 70 - result - Blake runner up

New Haven - backed Hrbaty at 70 & Karlovic at 22 - result - loss

US Open Mens - backed Djokovic at 36 - result - runner up

US Open Ladies - backed Kuznetsova at 50 - result - runner up

Madrid - backed Federer at 1.63 (layed at 1.17) - result - runner up

Zurich Ladies - backed Henin at 2 - result - win

Basel - backed Federer at 1.5 - result - win

St Petersburg - backed Murray at 5, Ancic at 7 & Verdasco at 14 - result Murray win, Verdasco runner up

Lyon - backed Gicquel at 30 - result - runner up

Paris - backed Davydenko at 50 - result - loss

So, the result of these stats tells me that if I had put £10 each-way on each selection at the initial odds, the total outcome would have been a profit of £2320.

Of course, a lot of the odds were taken on Betfair, therefore the each-way option may have been slightly lower, however a simple lay off once the player reaches the final amounts to more or less the same thing in any case. Overall then, not a bad few months on the outright wagers!

Time for a well-earned break and I shall return refreshed and invigorated for Adelaide in January.

Basel, Lyon & St Petersburg wrap and Paris advice

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 08:27:00 +0000

A very pleasing week comes to an end, with profits galore at all three ATP tournaments and a bank balance that is returning to it's heady pre-US Open heights, just as the season winds down.

In Basel, Roger Federer retained his Swiss Open title at the tournament where he was a ball boy in his youth. A bloodless straight sets victory over Jarkko Nieminen in the final represented Fed's eighth consecutive victory over the Finn (16 sets in a row) and a return on my 10 point wager at 1.5 with Boylesports.

Over in St Petersburg it was an eventful week to say the least. Andy Murray lifted the sizable trophy after coming from matchpoint down against Youzhny in the semi's to record a finals day win over Fernando Verdasco in straight sets.

The final was perfect for me, having advised and backed both players pre-tournament and a very nice profit of 15 points was the outcome.

The St Petersburg event was a controversial one however, with some extremely questionable matches taking place - notably Tursunov v Pashanski, where Tursunov was being backed to the hilt at 1.2 despite being a set and a break down! The result? Why, a Tursunov comeback victory of course...'They' knew.

Barely a week goes by these days without Nikolay Davydenko making headlines, this time it was for receiving a code violation and a fine for 'not giving best effort' in his match against Marin Cilic. Having written about this elsewhere http://tennisgurunews.blogspot.com/2007/10/davydenko-in-spotlight-again.html, I'll move on swiftly to the Lyon tournament.

My man in Lyon, Marc Gicquel, made it to the final at the nice price of 30 and with each seeded player falling early, the final against Seb Grosjean allowed an easy lay opportunity, which I took for an all-profit outcome. My initial investment of 1.5 points showed a profit of 10 points and the week in total showed a green of 30 points.

On to this week and the final Masters Series event of the year in Paris sees a rather lopsided draw and an opportunity for the much maligned (and rightly so) Davydenko to answer his many critics on the tennis court.

The Russian defending champ, has by far the easiest draw and I snapped up the 51 on offer from Sporting Odds on Saturday. The price is now down as low as 13 with some high street layers and I wouldn't touch that, but 50 is about right for a 1.5 point wager on a player whose mental state can only be estimated, along with his ethics.

I'm going with the theory that Davydenko will look to produce a good show as defending champ and the draw couldn't be kinder, given the fact that Federer has Karlovic, Nalbandian, Berdych, Murray, Djokovic, Gasquet and Blake in his section and will be tired after his two long weeks. Davy by comparison has only the likes of Ljubicic, Canas and Robredo in his quarter and only a clearly jaded Nadal of any note in his half, given the poor recent form of Haas and Gonzalez, so if (and it's a big if) the Russian can be bothered this week, he has an outstanding chance.

Basel, St Petersburg & Lyon advice

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Wed, 24 Oct 2007 08:29:00 +0000

The end of the tennis season always brings up a few unlikely results, but I managed to escape with a very healthy profit from Zurich and Madrid last week, largely thanks to Justine Henin and there are a few opportunities this week in which to reinvest those winnings.

The first wager that stands out for value seekers on Betfair is Fernando Verdasco outright in St Petersburg.

The top of the draw looks very weak in comparison to the bottom half, with only a potentially injured and as yet unnappeared Nikolay Davydenko to worry about and 14 looks a generous lay, particularly considering the high street layers are only offering 9.

Verdasco almost took out Djokovic last week in Madrid and has that huge lefty forehand in prime condition just now, so it's worth chancing that Davydenko won't make it to the semi's and taking that 14 on offer about the Spaniard.

The tougher bottom half appears to hold great opportunities for two players coming back from injury, in Murray and Ancic and I've had my share of the Scot at 5 and the Croat at 7. These two should contest the semi in the form they are in and both won in straight sets yesterday.

Over in Basel, I've had an investment in Federer at 1.5, with a small back up on Paul-Henri Mathieu at 34 in the easier bottom half of the draw. It seems unlikely that Federer will lose twice in a fortnight and in his home town, where he is defending champ, so a back to lay seemed like a sensible bet.

In Lyon, local specialist Marc Gicquel has an outstanding chance in the only tournament where he play well and his first round straight sets win over Robredo was no surprise. The bottom half looks weak and at 30 a wager on Gicquel looks the call.

Of the first round matches, I would pay good money to watch Santoro play Roddick and don't be surprised if The Magician has a trick or two still left up his sleeve for A-Rod.

ATP Masters Madrid - The story so far

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Thu, 18 Oct 2007 09:09:00 +0000

The temperature in the race for the final available berths for the end of season jolly in Shanghai was raised a couple of notches in Madrid this week and that combined with competing at altitude in Europe's highest capital led to a flurry of early casualties.

With half of the places already allocated and another two appearing reserved for Roddick and Ferrer, the remaining positions could conceivably be taken by anyone currently in the top twenty, bar the injured Lleyton Hewitt, so close are the players in the rankings.

The top 16 seeded competitors all received byes into the second round and many will now wish they hadn't, as 10 of them went out in the second round and another, Nikolay Davydenko, retired through injury.

All of which leaves the week's most impressive performer thus far, Andy Murray, in with an outside chance of reaching Shanghai and a great chance of revenge over Rafael Nadal tonight in what promises to be a classic encounter.

With so many of his rivals faltering, if Murray does overcome Nadal et al it is conceivable that he would move into the top 10 with two tournaments left in which to accrue ranking points. The manner of his two victories this week suggests that after a difficult rehabilitation from a wrist injury, he is now at peak fitness and crucially the forehand is back in business, as Stepanek and Chela will testify.

Sky's commentator-less interactive coverage combined with a distinct lack of spectators on Court Alcala this week has meant that every exchange between players and officials could be heard in full and there have been a few feisty incidents of note this week.

First to lose the plot was (not for the first time) Jurgen Melzer in his first round match with Ginepri. After cruising the first set against a slow starting Ginepri, Melzer was on the receiving end of some questionable calls and went into meltdown in the second set breaker after a poor overrule from the umpire gave Ginepri an unassailable advantage.

Melzer's racquet bore the brunt and bizarrely he tried to fix it whilst Ginepri was waiting to serve and the Austrian received a code violation for time wasting, at which point I genuinely believed that Melzer was about to burst into tears. Instead, he lost the set and went for a lengthy comfort break before losing the match in a third set which saw almost constant muttering and complaining from one of a band of temperamental Austrian players. Compatriot, Stafan Koubek was thrown out of a tournament recently for similar antics.

American, Mardy Fish, was next to have Sky reaching for the mute button, as he threatened to "kick his (Paul-Henri Mathieu's) fu***ng ass" in an unusual altercation during the second set of their first round encounter.

After winning the first set, the Frenchman was a couple of breaks down in the second set when he took what Fish perceived to be a tactical injury timeout and the players came together, alongside the umpire at the net after Mathieu had disputed a line call.

Fish's expletive ridden tirade was mainly to the umpire, who tried unsuccessfully to defend Mathieu's sportmanship and the Frenchman wisely retreated to the baseline to lose the set, but take the match in the decider.

On the betting front, successful wagers on Murray (twice), Ancic, Nalbandian and Del Potro led to a handy profit, which was somewhat dented by Gasquet's loss to Mathieu yesterday.

I'm going to have an interest in Murray, Ancic and possibly Nalbandian today and my main investments this week, rather unoriginally on Federer and Henin, play their respective matches today also.

China, Romania and Bali

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Mon, 17 Sep 2007 15:34:00 +0000

It was very much a case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' for the tennis world last week, following two weeks of cracking entertainment in New York, with only the hardcore making the long journeys to three minor tournaments in the hope of ranking points and in some cases a return to form.

The clay event in Bucharest always sees an entirely random winner - last year it was Jurgen Melzer - and this year was no different, with the finalists being Gilles Simon and home favourite, Victor Hanescu.

Punters would have been hard pressed to come up with those two as a final pair and individual match traders would have been none too pleased with the amount of retirements in the tournament in the middle of games, but this always happens the week after a slam, so I kept what was left of my funds firmly in my pocket.

The same applied to the China Open on hard, but I thought that the ubiquitous Nikolay Davydenko was too big at 5.0, so had a five point wager on him for the event, which I layed off when he traded at a more sensible 3.45.

Of course, he lost in straight sets to Marin Cilic in the second round, but I was out of the bet by then having made a bit and I gave the rest of the event a swerve.

Fernando Gonzalez enjoyed a welcome return to form, beating Tommy Robredo in the final and will be looking to continue that progress between now and Shanghai.

Over in Bali, it was great to see Lindsay Davenport mark her comeback to the tour with a win and she clearly still has the ability and hunger to trouble the best, after victories over Jankovic and Hantuchova en route to the title.

No ATP Tour event this week, but a few WTA events begin, however I will be concentrating on the cricket and rugby this week for hopefully some profit opportunities.

US Open Finals Weekend

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 11:27:00 +0000

Finals weekend at Flushing Meadows and the end of my stint as an insomniac, for the time being at least.

It was another hot, humid day in New York on Saturday and the protagonists of the first men’s semi final – Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer had to suffer the worst of the conditions.

Ever since his second round thriller with Stepanek, Djokovic has looked out on his feet during each match and today was no different, as he had the trainer and the doctor out frequently, but managed to see off the challenge of Ferrer in straight sets.

Retirement through fatigue appeared to be the Serb’s only real likelihood of defeat in this one, as he was just too good for the Spaniard, who doesn’t possess the weapons required to beat Djokovic over five sets on a hard court and so Novak proudly became his country’s first male Grand Slam finalist.

So, both of my pre-tournament wagers had made the final, but this will mean little in terms of profit unless they go close in their respective championship matches, due to the fact that they will both be massive underdogs.

I hoped, therefore, for a Davydenko victory in the second semi final, but it seemed unlikely, given all the evidence pointing to a Federer success.

During the pre-match chat, Greg Rusedski, who is becoming camper as the tournament progresses, stated “the public will warm to him” when discussing Nikolay Davydenko. Sorry Greg, but the public haven’t and never will warm to this dull little man, in a similar fashion to the way they haven’t warmed to your maniacal grin and bizarre fluctuating tones of voice.

The Russian broke the Federer serve in the first game of the match, but from 1-3, Federer took it up a couple of notches and served for the set at 5-3.

Davydenko fought back and with some great play, earned himself a couple of break points and took the second one to stay in the set.

A trademark forehand service return winner and a brilliant backhand pass did the trick for Davydenko and he followed it up with a love service game to level at 5-5, but he couldn’t fend off Fed for long and the Swiss maestro broke to take the set 7-5.

Fed took the next 6-1, but the third set was surprisingly competitive, with many breaks of serve and some thrilling baselines rallies and Davydenko had the first set point at 4-5 on Federer’s serve, having broken the Swiss three times in the set already.

Federer fired himself up though and somehow fought off the break point and a brilliant forehand running pass preceded a Davydenko double fault in the very next game and suddenly, Federer was serving for a place in the final.

He served it out to love to post a 7-5, 6-1, 7-5 success and so my wagers will both need to overcome the number one seeds, or at least run them close, if I am to record a profit on the tournament. Typical.

The less said about the ladies final the better. Henin walked it in straight sets, playing superb tennis and giving poor Sveta no chance whatsoever and giving me no chance whatsoever to profit on my wager.

Finals night began with the usual nonsense in the name of hype and ‘entertainment’. This year it was a wired looking Liza Minelli banging out God Bless America on court, accompanied by a suited pianist and a troupe of soldiers, unfurling the star spangled banner underneath an air force fly-by.

In the studio, Annabel Croft was looking her glamorous best and Rusedksi’s grin had reached a width of Julia Roberts proportions, as he recalled his own participation on the corresponding day a decade ago.

Back on court, Federer arrived in the all black gear and Djokovic patriotically decided upon the red, white and blue of Serbia.

For the second consecutive night I was holding a wager that looked highly unlikely to come in, and I desperately required Djokovic to start strongly and he was the first to find break points, at 5-5 in the opener.

Federer put a forehand long on the second break point and the New York crowd, who have really taken to the Serb and included Robert De Niro and Dustin Hoffman, went wild when Novak went 40-0 up and had three set points.

He couldn’t take advantage of them though and wasted five set points in total. Surely he would be made to pay for his profligacy in the resulting tie-break?

He would and you can’t expect to beat Roger Federer if you throw away golden opportunities such as the Serb did. Djokovic’s racquet hit the floor, as did my spirits when a double fault gave the set on a plate to the Swiss.

It was a similar story in the second set, as Djokovic had two set points at 6-5, but again he failed to convert and again it ended the same way as the first, in a tie break win for Federer.

Same again in the third, as Djokovic had three consecutive break points at 2-2, but failed again and both the Serb and myself were done.

Game over and the male and female world number one’s had delivered and it meant that I failed to make a bean from picking a 36-1 finalist and a 50-1 finalist, which seems a bit harsh.

So, it’s all over for another year and it just leaves the annual awards, which are as follows: -

Worst temperament award – Stanislas Wawrinka (runner-up Novak Djokovic)
Worst outfit – Bethanie Mattek’s tiger print shocker
Best outfit – Agnes Szavay’s little white dress
Best match – James Blake v Fabrice Santoro
Best commentary – Peter Fleming
Worst commentary – Sam Smith & ‘Rick’ from US TV (impossible to split them)
Most graceless loser – Serena Williams
Dullest personality award – Roger Federer, Nikolay Davydenko, Justine Henin
Scruffiest player – David Ferrer
The ‘my, haven’t you grown?’ award – Marcos Baghdatis & Bethanie Mattek

US Open Day 12 - Sveta survives

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 10:08:00 +0000

Day 12 at the Billie Jean King Tennis Centre promised to be an exciting one, from the viewpoint of entertainment and of potential profit.

It was ladies semi-finals day and make or break for my pre-tournament bet on Svetlana Kuznetsova. She really had to make the finals in order for me to profit, but first up today was the men’s doubles finals and I thought I may as well get in the mood with a quiet wager to see how my fortunes were shaping up.

I know enough about doubles to have realised that 2.2 against Aspelin & Knowle was decent value for the title over the Czech pair, Dlouhy & Visner, and so I invested in the Swedish/Austrian partnership, who obliged in straight sets for a deserved victory and a good start to the day.

I was undecided over whether to lay some of my wager on Kuznetsova off to ensure a profit, prior to the match with Chakvetadze and in the end decided it would be best just to let it ride and see what transpired.

What transpired was an incredibly nervy start from both players on a very warm, but windy afternoon in Flushing and it almost turned into a nightmare for me and for Kuznetsova.

I was an absolutely dire opening set from the number four seed, littered with unforced errors and it looked like I’d done my chips. The Betfair site had gone down right at the end of the first set, so I couldn’t amend my position when I badly needed to, so I was marooned with a large green on Kuznetsova, who posted a shocking 21 unforced errors in that opening set, which went to Chakvetadze by 6-3.

Chakvetadze had done nothing to win the first set, other than to put the ball in the court and leave the rest to Sveta’s badly misfiring ground strokes, but Anna threw in two double faults of her own to go a break down in the second set and followed it up with another shocker to go double break down. Chakvetadze had temporarily lost the plot and another break meant that the set was Sveta’s by 6-1, due to the number six seed’s 17 unforced errors.

This match became even more bizarre when the match was suspended due to excessive heat on Arthur Ashe court and both players needed to reach for the Valium and sort themselves out, because this was terrible tennis.

I was fortunate enough to be courtside in Melbourne at the Australian Open in January this year, when play was suspended and I recall that it was in excess of 50 degrees that day on court in the Rod Laver Arena and it’s just not possible to play in that sort of heat. Perhaps that explains the dire quality of tennis.

The decider began with, surprise, surprise, a couple of breaks and this match was taking years off my life. I reached for a beer in an attempt to relax, before witnessing the twelfth break of serve in this haphazard encounter and Sveta was 3-1 up.

The Betfair site was suddenly back and fortunately for me I was in profit in time to watch Chokevetadze (sorry Anna, but it’s true) collapse from a set up with break points to lose 12 out of the next 13 games for a poor defeat.

It brings to mind the classic Barry Davies quote, slightly amended, “where is Anna Chakvetadze? (pause) And quite frankly, who cares”.

Back on an increasingly windy Ashe, Venus Williams brought out the old family bathroom break trick with a twist. This time, Venus went for one after the warm-up, which could easily be construed as gamesmanship. Amazing how these urgent toilet requirements can happen in a big match.

It didn’t help her, as Venus was broken in the opening game and went on to lose a great set of tennis in a breaker, after breaking back and forcing Henin to go the distance.

It was a wonderful set of tennis; both players playing at their best, with the Belgian just having the edge, which she took into the second, when she broke Williams early on.

Suddenly, from nowhere, Venus broke back and then had another three break points at 3-3, but she failed to take advantage and it appeared that the chance had gone.

Williams received a visit from the trainer during the interval and then it was Henin’s turn to have three break points. She took the last of them with a Williams unforced error and served for the match at 5-3.

Somehow, Williams broke back and this match was living up to my expectations – I hoped for a third and final set, but more unforced errors meant a 7-6, 6-4 victory for the Belgian and she now looks nailed on for the title on today’s performances.

US Open Day 11 - Quarters complete

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 10:07:00 +0000

Day 11 of this year’s US Open saw the completion of the men’s quarter-finals and we now know the identities of the eight players that are still in contention for the final grand slam singles titles of 2007.

First on court today were David Ferrer and Juan Ignacio Chela and the question to be answered here was could Ferrer overcome his fatigue, after some tough matches and beat Chela for the first time in his career?

The answer was an emphatic yes to both – Ferrer came through in straight sets in a very one sided encounter and now faces the winner of Thursday’s match under the lights, which was Djokovic v Moya, for a place in the final.

Carlos Moya has had a bit of a resurgence this year, but the quarter’s of a slam is really as far as he can expect can go and Djokovic ended his run in another low key affair 7-6, 7-6, 6-1. A tight second set breaker was the highlight of another encounter that won’t live too long in the memory banks. Tonight should be different though.

All eight favourites came through their respective quarter-finals and the only one that dropped a set was Venus Williams (to Jankovic), but hopefully the weekend’s semi-finals and finals will prove a little more competitive.

Looking ahead to today’s matches, I’m obviously firmly in the Kuznetsova camp in the first ladies semi, but the match of the weekend could well prove to be Venus Williams v Justine Henin and this really deserves to be for the title. Will the Venus power game get the better of Henin again? The American holds a 7-1 advantage over Henin, but they haven’t faced one another since 2003 and Henin has improved considerably since then, so this is a tough match to call. Obviously, I hope it will go the distance, with the winner being too tired to raise their game for the final for the sake of my bet, but whatever the outcome, it will be an unmissable match.

The men’s final four is again dominated by Federer and there are really only a couple of questions to be answered here. Firstly, can Davydenko grind out his first win over the Swiss maestro in ten attempts and secondly, can Djokovic fight the fatigue and continue his run?

The Russian has not dropped a set so far in the tournament and ran Fed close at Roland Garros earlier this year, so you would have to say that he is getting nearer to that elusive first victory over the world number one, but can he go the extra mile and create a shock? The way Federer is playing, it seems a forlorn hope.

Djokovic v Ferrer will be a tight match I feel, given the amount of court time that the young Serb has put in this week and it might be a step too far for him. If he has enough left in the tank though he should beat the Valencian, who has admitted that hard is not his favourite surface and would most likely be soundly beaten by Federer or Davydenko if either turned out to be the championship match.

So, no real surprises at all in the semi final protagonists, with the possible exception of Ferrer, but perhaps there’s a shock or two still to occur in these championships and with no night match this evening, I might be able to give myself a break from sleep deprivation and enjoy the possibilities.

US Open Day 10 - Roddick comes up short

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 10:04:00 +0000

Day number 10 of the 2007 US Open saw the completion of the ladies quarter-finals and number 15 in the Roger Federer v Andy Roddick series of matches.

First up on Ashe today was what looked a competitive encounter between Shahar Peer and Anna Chakvetadze, but after a promising start, the Israeli fell away dramatically.

From 4-2 ahead in the first set, Peer lost ten out of the next eleven games for a disappointing 4-6, 1-6 reverse, despite the assistance of a noisy support group who needed to be made aware of tennis etiquette by the umpire.

So, Chakvetadze advanced to the semi-finals where she will play my bet, Svetlana Kuznetsova, after the number four seed also advanced in straight sets in her quarter final against Agnes Szavay.

Sveta was never in any trouble and played her most dominant and impressive match of the tournament. I hope she is peaking at the right time and I fancy her to get the better of Chakvetadze on today’s form.

Next on Ashe was the first of the men’s quarter finals, between Tommy Haas and Nikolay Davydenko and this was a repeat of last year’s quarter final, won by the Russian in five after Haas had won the first two sets.

This for me looked to be the match of the day, as their previous two matches had gone to five sets and it didn’t look good for Haas when he chucked his racquet into the net in anger after losing his serve at 3-3 in the opening set.

From that point on it was all Davydenko. He went a set and a break up and Haas looked deflated and on the way out until he somehow broke back, but he failed to hold an epic eighth game, which included a diving volley winner and an explosion at the umpire, both from Haas of course and the Russian went two sets up.

For my money, Davydenko represents all that’s wrong with many sports stars these days. Totally dull and emotionless and although he possesses some real talent, I would be gutted to have bought a ticket for the US Open and then discovered that I had to suffer a Davydenko match. Even when he wins a brilliant rally, there’s barely a flicker of a change in his countenance.

The New York crowd were behind Tommy, presumably for the same reason, but at least I had the option to switch off, start to fill in my tax return and wait for Williams v Jankovic for some entertainment. For the record, the charismatic Russian won the match 6-3, 6-3, 6-4; Tommy’s Dunlop’s took a beating and my tax return is on it’s way to HM Customs & Excise.

The hopes of the Williams family rested on the not unsubstantial shoulders of Venus, after Serena’s rather graceless defeat to Justine Henin on Tuesday night. I was surprised that Serena was quoted as saying, “she made a lot of lucky shots”; from where I was sitting, Henin outplayed Serena and appears to have her number at this point in their careers.

Jankovic got off to a great start by breaking Venus in the first game with a delightful lob and went on to deservedly take the first set by 6-4 with some great defensive play and great passes down the line. She must have been inspired by comic legend, Larry David’s appearance at courtside and too many unforced errors from Williams also had a slight bearing on the outcome of set one.

Venus stepped on the gas in the second set and took it 6-1, but Jankovic was far from done and there were no breaks of serve in the decider and therefore a tie break was required to separate these two.

Jankovic had hardly put a foot wrong in the third set, but made several unforced errors in the breaker and left herself too much to do from 2-5 down. Venus claimed the victory with a drive volley and we have a ladies semi-final to savour.

It was after 3 am again when Roddick and Federer took to the court and I am starting to resemble Keith Richards after a heavy session at the moment.

Both men, for reasons known only to themselves, turned up in all black and surely this would be a quick win for the Swiss maestro and so it proved.

Although Roddick took the first two sets to breakers, Fed was always in control and recorded his fourteenth win from fifteen starts against A-Rod, who quite simply will never beat Federer in a slam, regardless of the amount of cheerleaders he employs.

US Open Day 9 - Nadal, Serena fall

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Wed, 05 Sep 2007 13:09:00 +0000

Day 9 in New York saw the completion of the men’s fourth round matches and another much anticipated tussle between Justine Henin and Serena Williams.

First match of the day on Armstrong was a tight contest between Stanislas Wawrinka and Juan Ignacio Chela and this one was an entertaining and close contest that went all the way.

Wawrinka was the first to show and easily took the first set 6-4, only to lose his way and allow Chela back into it – the Argentine took the second set 6-2.

Several breaks of serve by each man, reminiscent of a WTA match, meant the third set had to be decided by way of a tie break and Chela stepped it up to take the set and Wawrinka smashed his racquet into the floor hard twice, completely obliterating it and getting rid of his frustration.

Stan has gone through a few Head’s this week and has emerged as a surprise contender for stroppiest player of the fortnight, but Chela made a late entry with a smash after losing his serve at the start of the fifth, after being blown away in set four.

Chela came back from the loss of his service to take the match 6-4 in the fifth and Wawrinka really let the racquet have it and it will take someone having an almighty strop to overtake Stan now in the racquet smashing stakes.

To calm things down a bit, I decided upon a brief sojourn onto Armstrong to have a look at what I thought was a ladies doubles quarter-final match, but what Bethanie Mattek had turned into a wannabe porn star’s convention.

I thought that Federer had been badly advised by his stylist yesterday, but Mattek’s skin tight tiger print outfit was presumably all her own doing and she certainly wins points for bravery if not fashion.

After a few minutes of that, it was back to Ashe and Djokovic’s continuing physical struggles re-emerged in the match with Juan Monaco.

My Serbian hope took the first two sets, but appeared to be struggling and had the trainer out frequently. This was not good news for my tournament wager, but Djokovic fought his way to a match point in the third set tie break, despite Monaco being penalised a point for a ball dropping out of his pocket in the middle of a rally at 5-3 ahead. Monaco saw the breaker through and set up a fourth.

Djoko dug deep though and saw the match through 6-1 in the fourth set for a hard fought victory. Sadly, even the terrible commentary from Barry Cowan and in particular Sam Smith, who did their best to put Novak’s performance down, couldn’t detract from a fine win for the Serb over a tough opponent, playing at the top of his game – something that neither Cowan nor Smith know anything about incidentally.

In fact, this disgraceful hypocrisy led me to double check the tour records of this pair and other than chucking away a two set lead against Sampras at Wimbledon that I recall only too well, Cowan’s career week was a victory in a challenger in Brazil in 2001 – value US$3,600 – with a finals victory over Andy Ram (ranking 285). Total wins on the main tour - 5 with 21 losses.

Smith of course was almost as bad, with seven first round exits at Wimbledon to her name from eight attempts and a paltry three titles on the ITF circuit (the challenger’s of women’s tennis) in a twelve year career. How these two have the cheek to criticise Djokovic beggar’s belief. John Barrett, Mark Cox, Pat Cash - come back, all is forgiven.

Anyway, I digress and the match of the day was up next – Justine Henin v Serena Williams. I had my cash and hopes resting on Serena, but she couldn’t quite come up with the goods this evening.

The American lost her serve early on, but eventually broke back to set up a set point on the Henin serve at 5-6, but the Belgian held on to force a tie break, which she took and never looked back from there.

Serena was making way too many unforced errors and although she had her chances, she couldn’t take them and Henin ran away with it in the end by 7-6, 6-1.

It was a late one tonight and by the time Nadal v Ferrer arrived on court it was after 3 am and I couldn’t face a three hour marathon of sock adjusting from Nadal, so I called it quits. He lost in four and my Djoko wager lives to fight another day… just.

US Open Day 8 - The J-Block silenced

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 20:40:00 +0000

Into the second week then at Flushing Meadows and the Labor Day holiday saw fourth round outings for the likes of Federer, Roddick and Blake, along with the ladies in the bottom half of the draw, who were looking to take advantage of an easier than anticipated route to the final.

Svetlana Kuznetsova was first up today on an extremely blustery Ashe and I was looking for a straightforward victory here to boost my chances of profit this week. The Russian’s opponent was the Hingis-conquering Victoria Azarenka, who seemed to be a bit overawed by the occasion and as a result, was thumped in straight sets.

Over on Armstrong, Agnes Szavay and Julia Vakulenko were attempting to reach the quarter finals and a date with Sveta – something I’m quite pleased that I’ve never experienced – and this was a nervy, error strewn encounter, possibly exacerbated by the windy conditions.

Once again I was lumbered with Kent Brockman on commentary and that combined with the poor standard of tennis made me switch off and wait for Roddick v Berdych to start. Szavay and Vakulenko were making me nervous and I couldn’t take it. If Kuznetsova doesn’t beat the winner out of these two, I’ll be very disappointed.

I was hoping that Berdych would dump the aggravating Roddick/Connors combo out of the tournament and I’ve never been so glad to hear the dulcet tones of Leif Shiras and Peter Fleming from the box.

Not known as much of a fighter when the chips are down, my hopes appeared to be forlorn when Berdych chucked away the opening game of the match and called the trainer after about five minutes. He did recover to serve for the set, but couldn’t hack it and was easily broken, leading to a tie break.

Berdych had the first set point on his own serve and in typical style, bottled it by netting a forehand, thus giving Roddick the opportunity, which he took. That is the difference between these two.

In the second set, Berdych strolled around as if badly injured – reminiscent of Jose Acasuso at his trudging best and quit after just two games. Thank you very much again Berdych! Wonder what the problem was this time? In growing toenail perhaps or a slight headache?

That cost me and what better way to recover than by watching someone else shouting in anguish and smashing their racquet in frustration. Enter Tommy Haas and he was playing home favourite, James Blake, on his own patch - surely a recipe for a Haas temperament explosion or two.

After the bizarre exit of Berdych, I was in no mood to suffer fools – enter the ludicrous ‘J-Block’ – James Blake’s rambunctious frat boy supporters club. Welcome to the US Open during week two.

The J Block looked like they had good cause to celebrate, as Blake went a set and a break up, but as always, Blake had a bad patch and Haas broke back and suddenly from nowhere the German was back in it and his racquets were safe - for the time being.

Haas served for the set at 5-3 and failed to see it out, but immediately broke the New Yorker to take the second set and silence the cretinous J Block, for the moment at least.

This match was proving tough to call and Blake came back to take the third set, before losing his serve in the first game of the fourth, to hand the initiative straight back to Haas, which he just held onto, courtesy of a millimetre on hawkeye. The German went on to bagel Blake and set up a decider.

No favourites in NY of course and every Haas winner was greeted by deathly silence, in stark contrast to the cheers after each point for Blake. Some of the crowd though were getting on Blake’s back after losing eight games in a row and this seemed to rouse him from his slumber.

It went to a breaker and Haas found his way to match point with a delicious backhand lob. Blake survived the first by the smallest of margins on hawkeye, but the very next point, Haas fired down an ace, which was challenged by Blake, however it just caught the line and it was game, set and match Haas.

After a straightforward victory for Anna Chakvetadze, it was time for Roger Federer to prove once again that he has no dress sense whatsoever, as he decided to turn up in all black again. I suppose it beats that ludicrous white jacket that he insists on sporting at Wimbledon.

Tonight’s lamb to the slaughter was Feliciano Lopez and he rather unwisely arrived wearing the same gear as Tomas Berdych. In fact it could have been the exact same gear, as it wouldn’t have needed washing after the Czech’s brief use of it.

Playboy Lopez loves the big occasion though and he stormed the first set 6-3 and had Federer in all sorts of trouble with that big lefty serve and he was swinging from the hip and hitting the target until Fed stepped it up a notch to take the second 6-4.

Federer, as ever, wasn’t rattled and moved through the gears to take it the match in four sets and set up a meet with Roddick.

US Open Day 7 - No joy for Chubby Dave

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 16:03:00 +0000

The end of the first week’s play in New York and the quality of the matches has been increasing almost daily as we reach the men’s third round and ladies fourth round encounters.

Day 7 started with what looked like a tough assignment for Serena Williams on Ashe against Wimbledon finalist, Marion Bartoli.

Serena had not impressed in her early matches, but was rarely troubled by the French woman with the bizarre service action in a routine straight sets victory, which represented an ominous improvement in form from Williams.

Concurrently on Armstrong, David Nalbandian and David Ferrer were slugging it out and after being down by a set and a break, Nalbandian surged back to take a two sets to one lead and Ferrer’s shirt bore the brunt of the Spaniard’s discontent, as he tore at it manically in frustration.

Ferrer looked down and out at a break down in the fourth, but an epic eighth game saw Nalbandian broken after eight deuces and the Valencian stayed strong to take the set to a breaker in which he outlasted Chubby Dave to take us to a fifth.

Whilst a fifth set was a blessing from a betting viewpoint, it meant that I had to suffer the same appallingly banal US commentator that had aggravated me so during the Davydenko v Kiefer encounter the other day. Whoever he is, he sounds like Kent Brockman from The Simpsons and I was 50/50 on whether to mute the TV for the duration of the match.

Chubby Dave was the first to have a match point at 4-5 on Valencian Dave’s serve, but he missed a very makeable backhand and the chance had gone. That was to prove costly, as Nalbandian lost his serve in the next game and Ferrer served it out to love for a fine victory that will probably grate with the portly one for some time to come.

Back on Ashe and I’d had a little investment in Venus Williams as a saver bet for the title and also for this match with Ana Ivanovic and this match-up turned out to be very one-sided, as Venus eased her way to a straight sets victory, encountering little resistance from the Serbian.

A more competitive match on Armstrong followed – a five set tussle between Robby Ginepri and Stanislas Wawrinka and this one turned into a battle of who could hold their serve and their nerve.

Stan had a warning for slapping a ball into the crowd and was lucky to escape a penalty for smashing his racquet in the fourth set after missing a sitter of a forehand, while at the other end Ginepri was as impassive as ever.

Wawrinka found himself with three match points at 5-3 in the decider, but Ginepri fended them all off before a Ginepri forehand hit the tape and sailed over the baseline for a Swiss victory.

Elsewhere, Henin had disdainfully dismissed Safina in straight sets and Moya outlasted Kohlschreiber in a five set thriller, which just left Novak Djokovic v Juan Martin Del Potro as the night’s entertainment.

After his marathon encounter with Stepanek, Djokovic must have been quietly confident of a quick finish tonight and he got one, with a trouble free straight sets win over the lanky Argentine. The only point of interest in this one was trying to work out whether there is any pattern to Novak’s ball bouncing on serve. The one time that Del Potro had 0-40 and three break points in the match, Djoko bounced the ball an incredible 24 times before serving. I’d certainly have been having a word with the umpire if I were Del Potro.

So, the end of an exhausting first week and today has brought me back to level profit, after some bad results earlier on. My outright bets are still in the hunt and week two promises some great tennis and excellent profit opportunities.

US Open Day 6 - Sharapova falls

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 21:30:00 +0000

Labor Day weekend in New York and a sell out crowd had a feast of tennis to enjoy on Day 6 of the US Open.

The most intriguing of the early matches for my money looked to be Maria Sharapova v Agnieszka Radwanska. The Russian had had things all her own way so far this week, but the Pole looked a more competitive opponent and so it proved, as she served for the first set at 5-3.

Sharapova broke back, but her big forehands were not finding the mark and she served four double faults in the first set – perhaps due to the windy conditions - which combined to give Radwanska a set point that she took with a nice backhand pass down the line.

A Radwanska victory would be great for my bet on Kuznetsova and also because I had placed a small wager on the Pole for this match at 12 and for the event outright at 720 a few days earlier.

Another double from Maria meant that she had to dig deep and move into turbo shriek mode to hold her first service game of the second set and she turned up the power to break Radwanska. The serve was still a problem though, along with too many unforced errors and the Pole was gifted break points twice in Sharapova’s next service game. She couldn’t take them and Sharapova cruised through the set as the Pole’s level dropped off.

It looked all over when Maria broke again, but out of nowhere, Radwanska started playing again and earned three break points at 2-2 in the decider. Another double handed the break to Radwanska and she was in with a chance of a shock.

Sharapova had to fight off another three break points at 2-4, before yet another double fault handed Radwanska the double break and the chance to serve it out. Maria’s dad obviously wasn’t confident of a comeback and he left at 15-0; he was right to make himself scarce, as Sharapova gave the match to Radwanska with more unforced errors.

Once I’d finished congratulating myself on that result, I decided that the next port of call should be Tommy Haas v Seb Grosjean on Grandstand and it turned into an entertaining match, with Grosjean coming from two sets down to force a decider.

It was nice to see the Frenchman playing good tennis again after a poor year that has seen him slip to number 78 in the world and at times he seemed back to his best.

So, we had two twenty-nine year old guys wearing baseball caps back to front arguing with the umpire over net cords and it was the German who emerged victorious by 6-3 in the fifth.

Straight over to Ashe just in time to watch John Isner annoy Federer with his service bombs and take the Swiss ace to a first set breaker, which incredibly Isner took by 7-4 and had Barry Cowan rather over excitedly talking up an Isner victory.

Having no confidence whatsoever in the American’s ability to break Federer, I went back to Grandstand as soon as Isner lost the very next service game. I had money on Tamira Paszek, so switched courts whilst Federer went on the comeback trail.

The fact that I never returned to Ashe is testament to either the exciting Paszek v Schnyder match or the fact that watching Isner is little short of depressing. Whichever, the young Austrian prodigy came back from a set down to take out an ever-nervy Schnyder in a final set breaker.

Next up on Grandstand was Andy Murray in his third round match with Hyung-Taik Lee and in typical Murray style, he lost the first set amidst a prolonged strop at umpire, Steve Ulrich, for not overruling on a couple of Murray serves.

It was all happening out there – Murray limping like a puppy who’s had his paw trodden on; lunatics in the crowd getting over excited; Brad Gilbert holding his head on his hands and a fiercely pro-Lee support group. Great stuff, but the Scot was on the ropes and two sets down.

He pulled a set back and then the racquet went at the start of the fourth after Murray had lost his break advantage, before running into the umpire’s chair (again) and then booting a bin over after reaching a drop shot.

It was all to no avail and after holding off match points, Murray lost his own serve and the match and it was straight over to Ashe to see my wager on Shahar Peer come in right at the death in a final set tie break shootout.

What a day and Sky called it quits instead of showing Blake v Koubek, so an unexpectedly early night for me at 3.15 a.m.

US Open Day 5 - Djokovic emerges triumphant

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 12:18:00 +0000

Day 5 at Flushing Meadows promised much – excellent betting opportunities, many top stars in action, Tiger Tim in round two and the rare prospect of a competitive night match.

Match of the morning without question was tournament second favourite and carrier of my hopes, Novak Djokovic, facing Radek Stepanek.

Having lost the first set on a breaker, Djokovic’s racquet went in the fourth game of the second set and you can see why he was getting vexed. Stepanek must be so annoying to play against, what with all the jogging up and down, bizarre celebrations, Henman-like fist pumps and in your face tennis.

A great service return winner up the line gave Novak the mini break in the second set breaker, but in the very next point Stepanek roared back, winning an extremely long rally. Stepanek’s little jumps and facial expressions went into overdrive as he took the lead, but a helpful net cord levelled it at the changeover, before both players gained and lost the lead and finally Stepanek put an easy volley into the net to hand the set to the Croatian.

There appeared to be a long way to go in that one, so I headed over to Grandstand for the ever watchable Marat Safin against Stanislas Wawrinka and I was greeted with the prowling, shouting, racquet smashing Safin that I had missed the other day. At 3-5 down, Safin had a break back point that he netted and the racquet bore the brunt of his frustration. It was to no avail through, as Safin’s decline continued with a straight sets defeat.

Back on Louis Armstrong, Stepanek served for the third set, but Djokovic broke the Czech for the first time in the match to level at 5-5, before losing his own serve and with it the set. This was looking bad – my main bet on the men’s side, down 2-1 in sets and having regular treatment from the trainer.

It looked like the end for Djokovic when he lost his serve in the first game of the fourth set, but immediately the Czech gave his serve away and was warned for hammering a ball into the crowd in frustration. I had a little extra on Djokovic for the tournament at 25 in the hope of a recovery.

An incredible rally set up a 0-30 chance and a big jump for joy from Djokovic at 6-5 and the very next point he had three set points to take us all the way and another missed volley from ‘The Alien’ meant a final set shootout.

Each and every possible vantage point was utilised on Armstrong, including standing room behind Row Z and the back row of Arthur Ashe to get a view of this classic encounter and the players received a standing ovation before the final set breaker, which Djokovic took easily and my bet was intact.

After four and a half hours I was in need of some respite and took a well-earned break before returning for Henman v Tsonga and sadly this turned out to be Tim’s last ever match at an ATP event, as Tsonga took it in four, largely with the help of some incredible serving. The end of an era and the man I first enjoyed watching in ’96 against Kafelnikov at SW19 leaves the tour after a fantastic career.

The last match of the day promised to be a competitive one, given Nadal’s well documented injury problems, but could Tipsarevic do enough to take him out, as the Serb has had injury problems of his own since Wimbledon?

This one turned into a battle of who could go the longest without calling the trainer and Michael Nowotny will be claiming over time after this one, as both competitors were regularly patched up during the changeovers. Nadal with his knees and then his finger and Tipsarevic with his dodgy ribs. Nadal will surely not last the distance in this event and Tipsy seemed to be there for the appearance fee – not the classic I was expecting and the Serb quit on his stool in the third set.

At this point I was hoping that Sky would switch to the Hewitt v Calleri match, which was looking like much the best of the night matches, but disappointingly for me they didn’t. Hewitt went on to lose after winning the first set and that has to go down as the shock of the day, but probably good news for an exhausted Djokovic.

US Open Day 4 - Santoro so close

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 12:13:00 +0000

Day 4 in New York and another busy one, with Andy Murray looking to emulate Henman’s triumph of yesterday amongst the early matches on court today.

So, straight over to Grandstand and Murray was taking on Jonas Bjorkman and the early signs were good for the Scot, but he failed to take advantage of his supremacy and lost the first set 5-7.

A painful fifth game of the second set seemed to last forever – there must have been ten deuces and definitely one code violation for Murray after swearing loudly over a missed forehand. Bjorkman held on eventually, but that game sucked the life out of him and allowed Murray back into it and he took the set and produced some great stuff in the third to take it 6-1.

The exertion and lack of matches seemed to take it toll on Murray though, as he wilted half way through the fourth, losing his serve and looking exhausted, but he broke back straight away and the set became a lottery, with Bjorkman eventually taking it by 6-4.

Murray was about to launch into a tirade at the umpire when Sky went to a well-timed (from their point of view) ad break. They’d probably had complaints from the earlier outburst and by the time we were back, the players were ready for the decider. At least Murray was and he found the energy to step up a gear and cruised through to the finish line, 6-1.

Most interesting encounter of the day matches promised to be Nikolay Davydenko v Nicolas Kiefer on Louis Armstrong, but this turned out to be a very dull, one-sided affair. On top of the poor performance from Kiefer, I had to suffer this from the US commentators: -

Commentator 1: “Right now Davydenko reminds me of a bus driver”.

Commentator 2: “Why’s that Greg?”

Commentator 1: “Well, he’s taking Kiefer to school right now”

Commentator 2: “Hmm”

On top of that nonsense, “Greg” went on to say how he thinks Davydenko has a good draw and a great chance in the tournament, before going on to mention that he would have to play James Blake (6-0 lifetime to Blake). Totally banal and I found myself in the disturbing position of shouting at the TV before switching courts. There wasn’t even a Kiefer rant to entertain me.

There was incident and controversy on ‘lucky’ Court 11 though, as Arnaud Clement fought off two match points in the third set breaker against Thomas Johansson, despite some very questionable line calls.

Clement, who changes his shirt at virtually every changeover, had a running argument with the umpire in French and with the crowd in English, as he was on the receiving end of a shocking call in the first game of the fourth set. He went into full-on Gallic shrug and arm flap mode.

It seemed to inspire the Frenchman though and the fourth set was full of high quality rallies and wonderful shot making – much of it from a pumped up Clement. German umpire, Roland Herfel was also on the receiving end of more moaning, this time from Johansson, as it went to another breaker, which Johansson took to claim the win.

Over on Grandstand, the Teutonic lunacy that I’d been seeking was in full swing, with the crowd right behind underdog, Philipp Petzschner, in the match with Haas. The underdog had his chances and had Haas resorting to his familiar rants, but alas it was to no avail and I had to put myself through the tedium of another Sharapova match.

Same dress, same result. The crowd surely must be looking for refunds about these night matches so far – total waste of time fare that should be played in the mornings, as opposed to at prime time, where excitement not tedium is required. There was the 20km ladies walk final live on Eurosport from the World Athletics and this seemed more appealing than watching Sharapova whilst waiting for The Magician v Blake.

Santoro made the wait worthwhile, when he bamboozled Blake with a few amazing shots from his repertoire of dinks and slices and levelled the match twice from a set down and forced a fifth set. Blake had never won a five-setter in nine attempts before tonight and he just squeezed past an exhausted Santoro, who clearly loved his night’s work and will be missed when he eventually hangs up his racquet. Now that was entertainment!

US Open Day 3 - Feldman causes an upset

noreply@blogger.com (Sean Calvert) — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 19:06:00 +0000

Day 3 at Flushing Meadows promised to be an interesting one. The prospect of Tim Henman’s finale, along with the appearances of Henin, Federer, the Williams sisters, Gonzalez and Nadal to complement a couple of crazy Russians, meant that this was surely the day of the tournament thus far.

No question for first destination of the day – Louis Armstrong for Marat Safin v Frank Dancevic for what looked an interesting match-up.

The mental Russian has recently availed himself of the services of yet another new coach in an attempt to make the most of his incredible talent. It’s a poisoned chalice of a job that has proven beyond the likes of Lungdren, Wilander, Volkov etc and surely a psychologist is more the requirement these days.

I was expecting the usual Safin histrionics, but the only real explosion came from a loud speaker that inexplicably blew up during match point and Dancevic got a first serve out of it and clawed his way back, but the stay of execution was temporary, as Safin took the breaker for a 7-5, 7-6, 7-6 victory.

After a bit of court hopping, it was soon time for the second of the crazy Russians and Dmitry Tursunov’s attempt to finish our Tim’s tour career on Armstrong.

Henman started well, getting a high percentage of first serves in, to the delight of the pro-Tim crowd and I couldn’t resist possibly my final ever wager on a Henman match. I decided to lay a Tursunov 3-0 victory and hoped for one last roar from the Tiger.

It was a bright start from the Brit and the cries of ‘Come on Tim’ were ringing out around Armstrong, as he ghosted in at the net to earn a break point at 4-3. Could he do it? You bet he could – a Tursunov pass went wide and Henman had the chance to serve for the set.

Typically though, Tim started with a double fault, but improved to earn a set point and my cash was almost earned. The Russian snuffed it out and then came up with an amazing pass to earn a break point. I’ll miss this kind of drama when Tim goes, I’m sure. Back to deuce and a big serve gave Tim another set point. This time surely? Yeeess!! Great volley and I’m in profit for once on a Henman match.

Of course, he lost the second set by 6-3, but he came roaring back in the third to go an early break up, before Tursunov broke back immediately. This was turning out to be much more competitive than many people thought and Henman earned himself another break, with the help of some dodgy serving by Tursunov and he served it out for a two sets to one lead.

Tursunov was rattled by some vintage Henman play and they traded breaks in the fourth before Tim took at 5-3 lead. We’ve been here many times over the years with Henman, but would this time be different? Remarkably, yes and he served it out comfortably for a stunning victory.

No time for celebration though, as I nipped over to Court 13 to see Fernando Gonzalez in trouble against Teimuraz Gabashvili, down by a set and a break and looking on his way out. Indeed, he lost the second set to the Russian, despite a vociferous band of Chilean supporters cheering him on.

Anyone familiar with Gabashvili will know that he’s not the most handsome of men and bears more than a passing resemblance to 70’s comedy legend, Marty Feldman. The joke appeared to be on Gonzalez though, until he cranked up that big forehand and took the third set with the aid of a very dubious line call that didn’t exactly have Gabashvili rolling in the aisles. It then turned into a classic, with the Russian having the last laugh - coming through in five hugely entertaining sets.

No respite for me though and I was in danger of contracting DVT due to the fact that I hadn’t moved from the sofa for about six hours, with still another four to go, but I had Serena Williams to watch next and then Federer.

Williams won comfortably, without hitting top gear. The best moment of that match was when a disheartened Maria Elena Camerin, after failing to reach a drop shot, executed a perfect right-footed volley, narrowly missing an incredulous Williams.

As for Federer, well he entered the building dressed from head to toe in all black, a la Mike Tyson and 23 minutes later, it was first set done, curtains for Capdeville and bedtime for me.

So, not a bad day betting-wise - a nice bit of trading on Gaba v Gonzo put me in profit and I needed it after yesterday's disaster.