Tech Daily: Nvidia goes mobile - Jun. 30, 2009

You say, “potato,” I say, “netbook.” That’s a bit how I feel when Michael Rayfield, who heads up the mobile computing effort at graphics chip specialist Nvidia, drops a tiny computer on my desk. Branded Mobinnova, it had an almost 9″ diagonal screen and a solid keyboard that folded around a tube stuffed with batteries and various connectors.

It is light enough to toss across the room like a Frisbee (not recommended, by the way). If I carried a purse, it would fit inside no problem. “It’s a netbook, right?” I ask Rayfield. “No, it’s a smartbook,” Rayfield replies.

Right…a smartbook. I haven’t heard that one yet.

There are notebooks, netbooks, mobile internet devices (MIDs), and web pads. There are smartphones and not-so smartphones. There are media players like the iPod Touch and the Zune. Last week I was shown a Hewlett Packard ultralight. Today, it was a smartbook from Mobinnova, which is the consumer brand of Foxconn, the Taiwan-based computer manufacturing giant that makes gear for pretty much everyone.

Why isn’t it called a netbook? Not sure. What the champagne and black-colored machine on my desk is — what all these gadgets are — is a mobile computer. And for chip manufacturers like Nvidia (NVDA), it’s the future.
0:00 /2:46HP laptops smaller but stronger

The Mobinnova is set up to run Windows CE, a lightweight operating system, so it’s not for someone looking to do heavy-duty computing. The ideal user performs mostly web-based tasks: e-mail, messaging, and game playing. It is based on ARM architecture, not Intel’s competing x86 design, so it won’t run Office or Windows 7 when it arrives.

It does play video like a champ, and claims 10 hours of HD quality video due to its battery-sipping design. When it hits the market around the holidays, the Mobinnova “élan” ought to sell in the range of $100 to $200, Rayfield estimates. So one notable difference in the “smartbook” category is price; Rayfield’s quote is a marked discount to the $300 to $700 most netbooks cost today.

The other difference is that Nvidia is doing all the processing inside this machine with what it calls Tegra.

Tegra is an all-in-one-computer on a chipset — a system-on-a-chip — that rolls eight different processors into one tiny package. Nvidia’s core business is graphics processors; its chips power the graphics inside Apple’s entire lineup as well as other computers either as standard equipment or aftermarket upgrades.

With Tegra, Nvidia doesn’t need Intel or AMD (AMD, Fortune 500) processors alongside its chips. Tegra is the whole package, and with more than $500 million invested in its development it is by far the largest commitment Nvidia has made to a technology outside of its core graphics business.

The reason for spending that huge chunk of change is that Nvidia is betting that mobile is going to be the growth engine of its business. At a financial analysts meeting earlier this month, NVIDIA CEO and co-founder Jen-Hsun Huang said that Tegra will comprise about half of the company’s revenue within several years. For the twelve months that ended January 25 Nvidia posted $3.4 billion in sales.

Like Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), and every other chipmaker out there, Nvidia sees the traditional computer industry changing, shrinking before its eyes — both in terms of size and the price that machines and their chips inside can fetch. “A year ago you could get a mediocre laptop for $1,000 Rayfield says. “Now you can get a kick-ass laptop for $400 — the market is never going back.”

That is true, but at the moment the great variety of form-factors and capabilities in these machines is more bewildering than anything else. Do I want a smartbook? A netbook? An ultralight? Do I just stick with my Blackberry and a laptop? What the hell is a web-pad?

Today, there are compromises inherent in all those devices. You need to weigh price against portability and performance. But what Tegra promises, as well as Intel’s future generations of Atom, and Qualcomm’s Snapdragon, is a mobile future without much compromise.

The way gizmos are being cranked out like Mobinnova’s “élan,” it seems like the time will come very soon (my guess, two years tops) where all the marketing monikers disappear. You will be able to pick the size mobile computer you want — pocket-size or purse-size — and the features you need at a price that rivals what most people pay for spiffy smartphones today. Will these be a primary computer? For many people, yes. For those with heavy computing tasks, say video editing, you’ll need a beefier machine.

It’s a future PC makers and PC chip companies like Nvidia are scrambling to adapt to, to plant their flag in the mobile marketplace. The stakes are simple: they either win huge, or watch their business slowly but surely shrivel. And while it is a bit confusing at the moment for consumers, hang in there. It’s about to be a great time to go shopping for a computer that fits your wallet and your needs perfectly.

However, hear me in this. I have not been stupid. I have already sold some and reinvested my original funds. This is now fun for growth.

So, I don’t know just how high this stock will go, but if the guys below at Breaking Views, Fortune and CNN are correct, which they just might be, then the price tag of $0.45 might be a real steal.

Just check it out. Read on…

pd

breakingviews: Sirius XM - The best play on an auto rebound - Jun. 30, 2009

U.S. car sales are in a ridiculous funk. Even with a strong June, the current annualized rate of about 10 million vehicles isn’t enough to compensate for scrapped cars and population growth. Yet the best investment play on an American recovery may not be a car or parts maker. Curiously, it may be Sirius XM Radio, which operates the radio in the dashboard.

This is partly a process of elimination. Two of Detroit’s Big Three — Chrysler and General Motors (GMGMQ) — are in bankruptcy. Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) is, of course, an option. But some 40% of Ford’s sales come outside the U.S., so it’s not a pure play on the domestic market. True, there are parts companies uniquely focused on the U.S. market. But given the serious margin pressures they face from bankrupt carmakers and rivals they look like very risky investments.

pd

4 Dates to Circle in July (BAC, C, GE, MSFT, SIRI, TWX)

Here are a few of the days that I plan to approach with eyes wide open.

July 11
If you’re hoping for a cheap — and legal — copy of Microsoft’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) upcoming operating system, this is your last day to pre-order a copy of Windows 7 Home Premium as an upgrade for Vista and XP users for just $49. Microsoft’s promising platform will hit the market with a suggested retail price of $119 in the fall.

A lot is riding on Windows 7. Vista has been the butt of operating-system jokes, especially in Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) effective “I’m a Mac” ads. Fans of Vista will argue that the knocks have been unfair, but all sides can agree that Windows 7 is Microsoft’s best chance to matter in a future that threatens to make operating systems less important in a future more focused on cloud computing.

It’s a good sign for Microsoft that the pre-orders — at least so far — have been selling briskly.

July 15
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince becomes Time Warner’s (NYSE: TWX) latest installment in the blockbuster series to hit a multiplex near you. It’s also the first theatrical release since author J.K. Rowling completed the seven-book series. Will that heighten or diminish interest in the movie series as Time Warner milks the last two books into three cinematic experiences?

Box-office receipts are trending ahead of where they were a year ago, so momentum is on Time Warner’s side. However, there’s also a busy slate of rival flicks hitting exhibitors this summer. Can Harry Potter’s spell over audiences continue?

July 17
Fridays are typically sleepy days on the news front. Few companies want to test shareholders’ mettle by delivering quarterly reports heading into the weekend. However, three meaty stocks with plenty to prove — Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), and General Electric (NYSE: GE) — will all be stepping up to the podium on July 17.

All three stocks started out the year as Dow components, until Citigroup was booted last month. They have a few other things in common:

* They were all trading in the single digits before the March rally kicked in.
* They have all sharply slashed their dividends over the past year.
* They have more than doubled off their lows, placing even more pressure for the companies to earn their recent gains in two weeks.

July 29
The last thing that Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) subscribers expect is a rate increase. The merger between Sirius and XM was based on an agreement that rates would be frozen for a couple of years.

However, that didn’t stop Sirius XM from bumping up its rates on discounted secondary receivers in the same family in March. It also began charging for online streaming, which in Sirius XM’s defense was accompanied by an upgrade in the quality of its Web-based offering.

Sirius XM is allowed to make these adjustments. It’s also entitled to pass along on any music royalty fee increases — and it will do just that when monthly rates go up by $1.98 on July 29.

That increase is going to become a huge test for the satellite-radio operator. Subscriber growth peaked during last year’s fourth quarter, when Sirius XM watched over more than 19 million receivers. It closed out the March quarter with just 18.6 million subscribers.

Will the July increase shake out even more subscribers, or will it be a cash flow dream as fans pony up for long-term commitments to lock in the current rates?

Things can cut either way, so join me in making sure you’re wide awake this month.

Technorati Tags: finance, harry potter, microsoft, apple, SIRI

Check out this simple article in pictures by Fortune Magazine. I love it. It is simple advice from a host of leaders and professionals about their experiences in life and simple thoughts that made them go forward in life.

Just check it out and be encouraged!

Best advice I ever got - Tiger Woods: Keep it simple (1) - FORTUNE

In a world of uncertainty, we could all use a little advice. So we asked a host of influential leaders to share with us the wise words that changed their lives forever.

Technorati Tags: ohdangit, leadership

Adultery Finds a Pol on Hiking Trail of Life: Margaret Carlson - Bloomberg.com

So it turns out that after five days of playing “Where in the world is Mark Sanford?” we — and his mystified wife — learned that the 2012 Republican presidential aspirant and popular two-term governor of South Carolina wasn’t communing with nature in the mountains but with a longtime friend in South America.

Upon returning yesterday, he told a reporter that he couldn’t understand all the fuss, as if everyone known for fiscal restraint (he must have paid full fare!) fills the car with camping gear (and packs his passport) only to drive to the Atlanta airport to wander off to Argentina like a latter-day Che Guevera tooling around on a motorcycle and keeping a diary.

If that were the case, he might be turning the whole thing into an award-winning film. There was a strong hint that wasn’t going to happen by about Day Three of his disappearance, when his wife told reporters, “I have not heard from my husband. I am taking care of my children.” The father of four missed Father’s Day, she said, because he needed “space.”

Quickly the initial explanation — he needed a break alone after an exhaustive legislative session — became inoperable. In a meandering press conference, Sanford apologized to everyone he had hurt — people of faith like him; his four boys, his wife. He choked up when he apologized to a former aide, Tom Davis, who had been with him so long that he’d slept in the basement on the kids’ dinosaur sheets.

pd

4 Reasons to Sell a Stock

1. Valuation
The most cited reason to sell – a fairly valued stock – is also the most difficult to nail down.

We estimate the fair value of a company before plunking money down to buy, determining intrinsic value by digging into financial statements, analyzing business prospects and free cash flow, and making conservative assumptions about future growth.

Buying undervalued stocks, we wait patiently for a price that’s close to our estimate of fair value, reassess at that point, and then ruthlessly sell if the stock looks fairly priced. Having personally bought MasterCard (NYSE: MA) in the past around $150, after it cleared $220 — nearly a 50% gain for a large company — the stock looked fairly priced. It was difficult to sell such a strong business, but it was the right move. With the stock at $163 one year later, I can consider buying again.

It’s not always that easy. Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) has looked expensive for years, but continues to reward shareholders. If valuation is perplexing you, you need to consider selling just some of your shares (to lock in profits), or protect your gains through other means, and then consider other factors in your sell decision.

2. Fundamental Change in the Underlying Business
Companies are always undergoing change — sometimes for the better, oftentimes not. As patient investors, we’re willing to tolerate minor, fixable hiccups along the lines of a weak quarter or delayed product launch. We’re not so forgiving of major blunders — think acquisitions that undermine the core business, getting surpassed by a competitor, or a string of failed expansion attempts. Pfizer’s (NYSE: PFE) acquisition of Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) was questionable enough to make many sell. Whenever a business undergoes a significant change, you need to put on your thinking cap and reassess.

3. Challenges to Your Investing Thesis
When you make a buy decision, you should write down your reasons and keep them handy. Knowing the most important drivers behind your buys, you can reassess your decision if any part of your thesis is challenged.

Because valuation is part of any thesis, threatening changes can include dividend cuts, deterioration of margins, weakening free cash flow — or economic shifts. At Pro, we keep the Big Picture in mind. If you’d bought Home Depot (NYSE: HD) believing a housing boom would continue, you’d follow housing news closely and may have seen your thesis falling apart — forcing a timely sale. So, what’s the thesis behind each stock you own? Write it down.

4. Better Places for Your Money
Sometimes a sell decision has little to do with the holding itself — you may simply see better opportunities elsewhere and lack the funds to take advantage. Just as a soccer coach will swap tired players for fresh ones in order to win the game, your portfolio can benefit from shuffling some players, too. In the late 1990s, it was becoming apparent PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) was making headway while Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) was struggling – and Pepsi was the cheaper stock. Since 1998, Pepsi has gained 50% while Coca-Cola has lost 24%. That was a great swap.

Technorati Tags: finance

Analyst: Old iPhone, not new, will drive Apple’s sales - Apple 2.0

Those 1 million iPhone GSs sold last weekend represent a “remarkable achievement,” writes RBC Capital’s Mike Abramsky in a note to clients issued early Tuesday, especially considering the new iPhone’s relatively narrow international distribution (8 countries vs. 21 last year).

But according to Abramsky, it’s the old iPhone 3G — newly priced at $99 — not the new 3GS, that will drive global sales this fiscal year.

“While early buyers appeared to favor the iPhone S,” he writes, “the $99 iPhone is expected to drive 30-40% momentum improvement, in countries like UK, Germany, France, and other parts of Europe and Asia where phones are more highly subsidized (on contract) and prepaid is popular (e.g. ~60% prepay in UK, ~90% in emerging markets like India).”

Abramsky expects Apple to sell 20 million iPhones in fiscal 2009, 64.5% of them the older 3G models. By his estimates the new 3GS won’t dominate sales until fiscal 2010, when he expects Apple to sell 30 million iPhones, roughly 60% of them 3GSs. See chart and spreadsheet below.

Technorati Tags: tech, technology, intel, mobile, apple, smartphone, smart, phone

Intel’s partnership with Nokia - Jun. 23, 2009

It won’t be until around 2011 that the third-generation of Atom, dubbed Medfield, will be ready for the market. This system-on-a-chip is being developed to power smartphones. It’s destiny, as one engineer in Intel’s Austin lab crowed, is to kick the pants of the incumbent in the mobile chipset world ARM. So will we see Intel inside a Nokia smartphone? You bet, but it will be at least a two-year wait. While they are waiting for Medfield to be ready, it looks like Intel and Nokia will be pushing this “new class” of devices. And you have to figure they’ll be in the market sooner rather than later.

Technorati Tags: tech, technology, intel, mobile, apple, smartphone, smart, phone

Intel and Nokia team up on ‘new mobile platform’ - Jun. 23, 2009

Under the agreement announced on Tuesday, Intel will buy intellectual property from Nokia related to high-speed wireless technology and the companies also said they plan to collaborate on open-source mobile Linux software projects.

They did not give a specific timeline for the development of products but said they expect “many innovations to result from this collaboration over time.”

The companies said they aimed to define “a new mobile platform beyond today’s smartphones, notebooks and netbooks” for hardware, software and mobile Internet services.

Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) already sells chips for netbooks, a type of no-frills laptop computer, and Nokia (NOK) has said it would look into the possibly of expanding beyond phones to develop netbooks.

pd

BNET - Article

The Idea in Brief

In today’s innovation-driven economy, understanding how to generate great ideas is an urgent managerial priority. And that calls for major doses of creativity. But many leaders assume creativity is too elusive and intangible to be managed.

It’s true that you can’t manage creativity. But you can manage for creativity, say innovation leaders and experts who participated in a 2008 Harvard Business School colloquium. Among their recommendations for fostering the conditions in which creativity flourishes:

* Stop thinking of yourself as the wellspring of ideas that employees execute. Instead, elicit and champion others’ ideas.
* Open your organization to diverse perspectives–by getting people of different disciplines, backgrounds, and areas of expertise to share their thinking.
* Know when to impose controls on the creative process (such as during the commercialization phase) and when not to (during early-idea generation).

The Idea in Practice

To enhance organizational creativity, consider these practices:
Tap Ideas from All Ranks

* Elicit ideas from people throughout your organization. Google’s founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page tracked the progress of ideas that came from them versus ideas that bubbled up from the ranks–and discovered a higher success rate in the latter category.
* Motivate people to contribute ideas by making it safe to fail. Stress that the goal is to experiment constantly, fail early and often — and learn as much as possible in the process. Convince people that they won’t be punished or humiliated if they speak up or make mistakes.
* Further engage people by being an appreciative audience. Asking questions about a project and providing even a word of sincere recognition can be more motivating than money.

Open Your Company to Diverse Perspectives

Innovation is more likely when diverse people come together to solve a problem. Even within the mind of an individual, diversity enhances creativity. Individuals who have multiple social identities–for instance, Asian and American, female and engineer–display higher levels of creativity when problems require them to draw on their different realms of knowledge.

The lesson? Avoid suppressing parts of people’s identity. For example, craft a culture where female engineers can feel comfortable wearing feminine clothing.
Protect Creatives from Bureaucracy

As a fresh idea travels through an organization toward commercialization, powerful constituencies often beat it into a shape that conforms to the existing model. Protect those doing creative work from this hostile environment by clearing paths for them around obstacles.
Know When to Impose Controls–and When Not To

The early discovery phase of the creative process is inherently confusing and inefficient. So don’t impose efficiency-minded controls during that phase. Instead, apply them when the game has moved from discovery to reliability and commercialization.

Know which phase you’re in, and ensure that people with the right skills (such as ability to manage the handoff to the commercialization phase) are involved in the right stages.
Create a Filtering Mechanism

For every idea with real commercial promise, there are dozens that aren’t worth pursuing. How to winnow out the bad from the good? Have people from a variety of disciplines, functions, and viewpoints act as filters. Also consider using business “accelerators” (outside companies that test product ideas) to gauge their potential.