Well look who's back. (Photo credit CBS)

Believe me, team, should you ever dare to start up a blog and then take some time away from it, boy howdy, will you ever hear about it.

As a result of my hiatus these last couple of weeks, I’ve received a steady stream of reader e-mails, telephone calls and personal confrontations filled with complaints, insults, nagging and threats. But enough about Arkansas Project Girlfriend….

So maybe we’ll start ramping up again this week, ever so slowly, so as not to hurt ourselves. Let’s start with a) a new photo of that Arkansas chick who won CBS’ “Survivor” a few weeks ago (the “TV Guide” page where I found that photo says it’s her, but if so she looks really different from the earlier shots) and b) some long-delayed updates to our candidate lists. Quite a few changes to the First, Second and Third District congressional races, among others. (Let me know what updates we’re missing on the state legislative races front.)

The good news is that over the next couple of weeks we’ll start to get a much firmer sense of what all of these primary races will look like, since candidate filing starts March 1 and wraps up March 8. Which Senate candidates will wake up and face reality, once they’re faced with actually having to write a check for $12,500? (*cough*Curtis Coleman!*cough*Conrad Reynolds!*ahem*). I can’t wait to find out!

And among the things I missed last week…seriously, a “TWITTERVIEW” with Sen. Blanche Lincoln? My friends, we have now arrived at the absolutely stupidest possible confluence between the worlds of social media and politics. Alas.

Post from: The Arkansas Project

Photo courtesy of Arkansas Project reader Mike, who has a thing for both Boozman and impossibly leggy chicks posing in uncomfortable stances.

After a week-long tease that he was considering getting into the Arkansas GOP Senate primary for a chance to challenge embattled U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Rep. John Boozman’s getting in, someone who would probably know tells me.

Of course, they’re telling everyone they can find, so it’s hardly exclusive. You might think they’d just issue a press release instead of offering a steady stream of breathless “sources say/you didn’t hear this from me” messages to everyone in the world, one by one, which appears to be the strategy.

As the lone Republican in the state’s Congressional delegation, Boozman will emerge as a strong candidate given his regional strength in Northwest Arkansas, proven fundraising ability, and dear God does anyone even bother reading these pat “impact” analyses at this point when the impacts are mostly obvious—I mean, you’re probably not even reading this sentence anymore, and if you are the question is, why, because it’s not like there’s going to be anything in this graf that you haven’t read before or even thought up yourself, right?

Boozman’s always struck me as a nice fellow but he has the charisma of an elbow. The End.

Oh, no, wait, one more thing: Jim Lindsey! Might run! OK, now really The End.

UPDATE: In a news release issued today, Boozman says to stay tuned till February 6, when he’ll have an “important announcement” about his political future. Golly, I wonder what it could be?

Post from: The Arkansas Project

Wills is the second Democrat to announce for the seat—state Sen. Joyce Elliott said last week that she’s running for the Second District seat as well. Three Republicans — Tim Griffin, David Meeks and Scott Wallace — are slugging it out in a primary on the GOP side, and by all accounts the Democratic field is only expected to grow.

Word on the street is that Wills is looking at recent successful campaigns for ways to distinguish himself as the front runner. In fact, he’s been closely studying the Massachussetts Senate race last week for tips on how Republican Scott Brown pulled a shocker upset over Democrat Martha Coakley, and doing everything he can to replicate the Brown playbook:

Some say the media-loving Wills is overexposed. I'm now inclined to agree.

Post from: The Arkansas Project

Finally, something to smile about.

Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln can’t seem to get much right these days based on her poll numbers, but her fundraising prowess tells another story.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, Lincoln raised $1.3 million, leaving her with $5 million cash on hand, her campaign announced this morning. In a related story, the various candidates in the GOP primary to challenge Lincoln discovered that they could save a bundle by carpooling to events.

Back in July of last year, I noted that, if Lincoln were to continue raising funds at the rate of roughly $500,000 per month, she could conceivably raise $11 million for the race. For this election cycle in total, she’s now raised more than $7 million, which I believe is already an all-time record for an Arkansas candidate.

Republican candidates who think that Lincoln is finished just because she’s polling below 50 percent (way below) right now truly underestimate how hard Democrats will fight to hold this seat. Political machines don’t just roll over and die because they get discouraged.

And yes, we’ve all heard the rumors and speculation floating around that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee wants Lincoln to step aside for a stronger candidate. I’ll believe it when I see it. Till we hear her say she’s out, she’s in.

By the way, I’ll be on KARN at 5 p.m. this afternoon with local radio legend Dave Elswick to talk state politics, and I’ll bet we discuss some of these numbers. Also on the agenda: I’ll show you how to make a simple bird feeder with just a pine cone and a couple tablespoons of peanut butter! Tune in at 5 to learn how!

Post from: The Arkansas Project

Post from: The Arkansas Project

Berry: Gotta go

Rumors of Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry’s possible retirement from his First District Congressional seat — fueled by a radio interview with KUAR’s Ron Breeding last week in which Berry hedged on the question of whether he was running again — are proving to have been on the mark. Berry’s retirement announcement is pending, and may come as early as Sunday evening.

(UPDATE: Looks like I was a little behind the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, who says the Berry announcement will come tomorrow. Roby Brock at Talk Business has also been working the story.)

On the Republican side, Jonesboro radio man Rick Crawford announced his bid last summer. Meanwhile, The Tolbert Report noted an effort afoot to draft GOP state Rep. Davy Carter to run for the seat. Get ready for an avalanche of Democrats to announce their interest in running for the seat in the coming hours and days.

Makes this a great time to take another look at AP Capitol reporter Andrew Demillo’s weekend assessment that “uncertainty reigns in Arkansas 2010 races.” Good point, Andrew Demillo!

UPDATE: Done deal. Full statement at jump.

Washington, D.C. –   After serving Arkansas’s First Congressional District for 7 terms, Congressman Marion Berry (D-AR, 1st) announced today in the following statement that he would not seek reelection in 2010.

“Since 1997, the people of the First Congressional District of Arkansas have entrusted me to serve them in Washington. It has been an honor I have never taken for granted and for their support I will be eternally grateful. After much prayer and consideration, I have decided it is time for me to return home to Arkansas.  The people deserve a representative who has the ability to rise to the numerous challenges that face our state and our nation. As a lifelong farmer, time has taken its toll on my health and I am no longer able to serve the district with the vitality I once possessed. Therefore, I have decided not to seek reelection in 2010. I am at perfect peace with this decision and look forward to returning to the farm and my home state of Arkansas.”

During his time in Congress, Representative Berry has served on the House Agriculture Committee, the Budget Committee and in 2003 he was appointed to the House Appropriations Committee where he currently serves on the Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, Energy and Water, and Transportation Housing and Urban Development subcommittees.

Congressman Berry was first elected to the United States House of Representatives in 1996. Berry, a lifelong resident of Arkansas County, has been recognized for his effective leadership on a range of national issues while fulfilling his commitment to faithfully represent the citizens of the First Congressional District of Arkansas in Washington, D.C.

Post from: The Arkansas Project

Rep. John Boozman: What's one more?

Rep. John Boozman, the stalwart lone Republican of the Arkansas Congressional delegation, says he might just get in to the U.S. Senate primary to challenge embattled Sen. Blanche Lincoln, too. I haven’t been this excited since Stanley Reed got in the race!

Oh, and another poll out today, now from the Arkansas News Bureau, shows that Lincoln’s approval is finally rebounding after months and months of sagging approval ratings and grim prognoses for her electoral future. Ha ha! No, I’m just kidding, of course. The numbers are still just absolutely terrible for her.

Post from: The Arkansas Project

Roby Brock’s Talk Business Quarterly is out with the latest numbers on embattled Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln, and if you were thinking that Lincoln’s sucky poll numbers had surely bottomed out, well, that just goes to show what you know, because it just keeps getting worse. Fifty-seven percent of Arkansans hold a “strongly unfavorable” or “somewhat unfavorable” view of the state’s senior senator.

Do you think it has anything to do with her support for that reeking turd of a health care bill? No, it couldn’t be that, because that’s just insanely popular, right? Quick, we need someone to explain why that reeking turd of a health care bill is actually a net plus for Democrats, in spite of all evidence to the contrary. Over to you, Blake Rutherford!

And another thing: Am I the only one who finds it strange that TBQ continues to use GOP political strategist Clint Reed to craft these polls, when he’s consulting for the campaign for Republican state Sen. Gilbert Baker — who’s a strong contender to be Lincoln’s challenger in November? Just askin’.

(UPDATE: Roby Brock called to let me know that he typically discloses Reed’s affiliation with the Baker campaign, as well as his Democratic contributor Robert McClarty’s affiliation with that of Attorney General Dustin McDaniel—but that he’d neglected to do so in this case. He has updated his blog post with the disclosures.)

Fuller results over at Talk Business

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Blanche Lincoln?

15%  Strongly Favorable

19%  Somewhat Favorable (Favorable = 34%)

11%  Somewhat Unfavorable

46%  Strongly Unfavorable (Unfavorable = 57%)

9%    No Opinion

Thinking about the job that Blanche Lincoln is doing as U.S. Senator, would you say you approve or disapprove?

15%  Strongly Approve

23%  Somewhat Approve (Approve = 38%)

7%   Slightly Disapprove

49%  Strongly Disapprove (Disapprove = 56%)

6%   No Opinion

Post from: The Arkansas Project

Republican Tim Griffin has been making a spirited run to challenge Snyder on the GOP side, facing Scott Wallace and David Meeks in the Republican primary. Soooo…who will jump in on the Democratic side? In true Arkansas Project fashion, let’s let mindless, ill-informed speculation run rampant. Hash it out in the comments section, fools.

UPDATE: Griffin offers a statement in response, also at jump.

Washington D.C. – U.S. Representative Vic Snyder (AR-02) issued the following statement today:

“2010 will be a robust election year during which great forces collide to set the direction for our country for another two years.  Over the last several weeks Betsy and I have had discussions with family and friends including other members of Congress (Rep. David Price, Rep. Susan Davis, and our own Sen. Mark Pryor) regarding the appropriate balance between family and Congressional service when a family has very young children.  I have concluded that these election-year forces are no match for the persuasive and powerful attraction of our three one-year old boys under the leadership of their three-year old brother, and I have decided not to run for re-election.  It is the greatest professional honor of my life to represent Arkansas in the U.S. House of Representatives, and I am so grateful to the people of Arkansas to have had this wonderful opportunity.  That honor will now pass to someone else at the conclusion of this term.”

“This decision has not been an easy one.  Two weeks ago my campaign manager came on board, but that first morning I advised him to do nothing to begin the campaign because of my doubts regarding running.  The onset of the new year, the time I always begin organizing my campaigns, did nothing to remove these doubts.”

“I have put very little thought into what the work side of my life will look like at the end of this term, although it is clear from observing how much our four little boys eat that I will be working for a long, long time.”

Statement from Tim Griffin, GOP primary contender:

LITTLE ROCK – Second District Congressional candidate, U.S. Army Reservist and former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin today issued the following statement in reaction to Rep. Vic Snyder’s decision not to seek re-election in 2010:

“I respect Rep. Snyder’s decision not to seek re-election. I thank him for his many years of service to the nation both in uniform and in Washington. I look forward to continuing a vigorous grassroots campaign on common sense conservative principles, including private-sector job creation, reducing the national debt and market-based health care reform.”

Post from: The Arkansas Project

(Photo credit: Michael Williams/ZUMA Press)

An early morning e-mail showed up promoting a February 16 visit to Arkansas by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for a fundraiser on behalf of the Republican Party of Arkansas.

Palin’s visit was suggested a couple of weeks ago on The Tolbert Report, but some confusion arose because word had leaked out via Facebook before details were finalized. Tolbert had it right to begin with, and it appears the earlier confusion has been cleared up.

Looks like the state GOP is playing it smart with lower cost tickets for the speech ($65 and $35, I’m told), which is a good thing as the event’s slated for Verizon Arena in Little Rock. Tickets for seats at dinner tables on the floor are going for $175. More to come when more details emerge.

UPDATE: I received a subsequent message this morning on this matter, and the correspondent asked that we keep this news “under our hats” until the state GOP has had the opportunity to formally announce the event. So please forget everything that you just read above while we await the formal announcement.

Post from: The Arkansas Project