The Baseball Opinion

Ryan Westmoreland – Where are you now?

Chris — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 14:00:46 +0000

Last week Baseball America released their top 10 prospect list for the Boston Red Sox system. Although the list itself piques the most interest, the breakdowns in column on the right side of the page are also of interest. Something always catches my eye, this time around it was the organization's top prospects of the past decade. Back in 2009 the Red Sox had a young outfielder at the top of their list that doesn't even show up in their top 20 anymore. That outfielder, a 19-year-old by the name of Ryan Westmoreland burst onto the scene for the Boston Red Sox. In his first professional season Ryan hit .296/.401/.484, slugging seven home runs and stealing 19 bases without getting caught once. He even displayed a great eye at the plate with a 14.2 BB%. He shot up prospect lists and ranked #1 on quite a few of them. He was listed above players like Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick, Anthony Rizzo, and Jose Iglesias. John Sickels of Minor League Ball raved about him, stating:

1) Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Grade B+: I love this guy: Five Tool/Seven Skill player who can do everything. I expect more power will come. Just needs to stay healthy.

But the last sentence spoke volumes. Unknowingly, Sickels put in that disclaimer as he does on many of his reviews as several top prospects get injured on the field and never achieve the level of impact that scouts and analysts believe they can reach. In his December 2009 post Sickels wasn't referring to a March 2010 diagnosis that Ryan had a "cavernous malformation" in his brain stem. Something that would have a life-changing impact on anyone, not just the top prospect in the Red Sox organization. Now, after successful surgery to correct the issue, Ryan is back with the Red Sox and is working his way back into baseball activities. The Bleacher Report had a recent posting on Ryan and his first stop on the way back, a few at-bats in a Dominican instructional league. More on his first action back in baseball can be read in Brian MacPherson's article on ProvidenceJournal.com. It has some quotes directly from Ryan and is a good read. Good luck on your way back Ryan!

Getting the Most out of TBO

Chris — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 13:59:49 +0000

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Over Spilled Milk: Delgado to the Mets

Chris — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 14:00:15 +0000

Still scratching my head on the Prince Fielder signing, I decided to peruse through old posts to take my mind off of it. But what caught my eye was a post about another major left-handed first base bat that changed uniforms over six years ago. In late November 2005, the New York Mets, then under control of GM Omar Minaya, traded for Carlos Delgado to add more thump to their lineup. This story also relates to this year as the deal dealt with the then named Florida Marlins, who were trying to clear payroll through a fire sale. Something completely opposite of this winter's antics and possibly something we'll see again in a couple years. At the time I stated: "Minaya got the power bopper that he wanted, Delgado reached 30 homers for the ninth consecutive season this past year and is an RBI machine. Carlos also gives protection in the batting order to another Carlos….Beltran, last year’s big signing. Delgado’s bat is feared more than Cliff Floyd’s and the protection should improve Carlos Beltran’s statistics. By grabbing Delgado and signing Billy Wagner Omar Minaya not only added a significant amount of payroll, but placed the Mets into serious contention to take the NL East division from the Braves for the first time in 14 years...." For more go to: http://www.thebaseballopinion.com/?p=6020

A Case for A.J.

Chris — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 14:00:22 +0000

Recently, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted that the Yankees hope to address their need for a DH through trying to deal A.J. Burnett for salary relief or a "DH type". With the Yankees' recent additions of Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda the team has three pitchers vying for the 5th spot in the rotation and another couple starting pitcher prospects nearly knocking on the door. There seems to be enough of a surplus to deal from, but the question remains, "Who would take A.J. off the Yankees' hands?". Burnett is in the midst of a 5-year contract worth $82.5 million. Right now there are two remaining years ('12-'13) at $16.5 million each. But Yankees fans want him gone yesterday. Although A.J.'s first season in New York resulted in a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA, his last two seasons have been pretty ugly compared to his career statistics. But a case can be made for a team like the Padres, Pirates, Athletics or Mariners to take on A.J. and a portion of his remaining contract. Burnett's Fielding Independant Pitching (FIP) has been roughly 0.40 lower than his ERA the past couple seasons. Also his HR/9 has increased since joining the Yankees with a 1.1 in 2009, a 1.2 in 2010, and a 1.5 in 2011. Moving out of Yankee Stadium and into a more pitcher-friendly ballpark should help to shift those averages down towards his career average of 0.9 (which has been increased by the past three seasons). Getting out of the spotlight of an overly critical media that resides in New York wouldn't hurt either. Sure, GM Brian Cashman and the Yankees will have to eat a large portion of the contract to get a deal done, but a bargain hunting GM may get a decent #3 pitcher for a scrap heap back of the rotation starter's price. It's certainly something to look into, it just depends how bad the Yankees want him off the roster.

Tigers Befuddle Many, Sign Prince

Chris — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 14:00:35 +0000

The Detroit Tigers have sent shudders throughout the baseball world. With the signing of Prince Fielder to a 9-year, $214 million contract, Fielder is set to become the Tigers next first baseman. Of course, becoming the team's next first baseman is the head-scratcher. The team already happens to have a hitter by the name of Miguel Cabrera that just happened to come in 5th in the AL MVP race in 2011 (and that was with many Detroit-centric votes that would go towards him shifted the to actual winner, Justin Verlander). Sure, Cabrera's only had one positive UZR at first in four seasons, but Fielder's no Kieth Hernandez. According to FanGraphs, he's actually been worse at first over the past four seasons than Cabrera. But let's not forget Victor Martinez, at least we haven't, but Tigers management apparently has. With Martinez returning next season, the Tigers will have three DH types and only one DH spot to fill. Even before Alex Avila's emergence, Martinez was already destined to spend more time at DH and first base than behind the plate. Now what? Trade Cabrera and his past personal issues after the season? Move Cabrera to 3B (and put on a blindfold), where he hasn't played an inning since 2008? Move him to left field (and double-up the blindfold), where he hasn't played since 2005? Sign David Ortiz next winter to have four of a kind. It's at least a good poker hand.... ...and let's not even get started on the length of Fielder's contract. I already addressed the issue of a lengthy contract for Fielder in a previous post about him. The last two to four seasons are not likely to be pretty. But hey, it's the owners that want to be nostalgic and bring Cecil's son to the Motor City, it's just Dave Dombroski's job to make the rest of the roster fit. Good luck Dave!

Rebuttal: MLB.com’s Top 10 First Basemen

Chris — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:00:52 +0000

MLB.com has recently started rolling out it's list of the top 10 players from each position. They started with starting pitching, to which I had little desire to rebuke. But once it got to the top 10 first basemen, that's when I thought it was time to put in my two cents. Here's my list: Anthony Rizzo Yonder Alonso Jonathan Singleton Matt Adams C.J. Cron Clint Robinson Neftali Soto Chris Carter Joe Terdoslavich Alex Dickerson Daniel Vogelbach Although I agree with the site's top three picks, there's some discussion about those further down the line. Adams switches places with Cron in this lineup. He's proven himself against more advanced pitching and has established a proven track record of hitting everywhere he goes. Possibly one of the biggest surprises is that Chris Parmelee is completely off this list. Chris put up better numbers in 2011, but he was also repeating Double-A. Also, although he has a good walk rate, I highly doubt he will hit for average in the majors and he doesn't hit for much power. His replacement at #6 may be just as surprising. Clint Robinson doesn't get enough credit in my eyes. Sure, he's 26 and doesn't field well, but a team willing to put up with his defense or has an open DH spot should take a long look at him. Like Parmelee I doubt Soto's ability to hit for an average or to take a walk, but there's no doubting his power. Regardless of the thunder in his stick, I am tempted to move him down near the basement of this list. I just don't think he'll hit major league pitching. That could also be said for Carter who hasn't proven himself in the majors yet, but I still believe that he has the ability to hit well enough to be valuable to a team....especially if he settles in to a single defensive position. The next two I somewhat liken to each other. Terdoslavich is one year further along than Dickerson at this point and we've seen the results out of the switch hitter so far. Although Dickerson disappointed some with his lack of power, check out Joe's power numbers from his age 21 season. Alex could easily move past Joe this year. I couldn't just round out the list at 10 though, Vogelbach intrigued me. He put up some very nice numbers in a limited scope in 2011. Dan could certainly move up past Soto's spot in this list by the end of the 2012 season. But the numbers are too limited right now to move him higher.

Rookies to Look For: Manny Banuelos

Chris — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 23:30:49 +0000

It's rare that a Yankees' starting pitching prospect hangs around long enough to reach professional maturity for the major league club. Most of their starting pitching prospects are traded for an established impact starter. But lately the Yankees have been a little more patient with their pitching prospects, somewhat out of mid-season injury/inconsistency necessity, but also, they have some talent to try out. Ivan Nova established himself in the Yankees rotation last season. Phil Hughes has had the talent to become a regular member of the starting staff, he just hasn't put it all together for a full season yet. Then there's the top two pitching prospects in their minor league system, Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos. The latter of the two is a lefty that is knocking on the door of Yankee Stadium. He flaunts three good pitches; a 91-95mph fastball, a very good change with sinking, screwball-like action when on, and a nice curve. [media id=33 width=320 height=240] Yet, for all the talent, Banuelos has some issues with his command. Some say that he could still develop into a Gio Gonzalez-type who thrives despite his control issues. MLB.com even ranks him as the second best lefty starting prospect in the game. I'm not as high on Banuelos. Though I agree that he is one of the top left-handed starting pitching prospects in the game, I'm not sold on his long-term projection. He seems to be a future #3 starter, or #4 on a team like the Yankees. He'll likely have a few peak seasons that will put his value higher, but the lack of control is an issue that cannot be overlooked. Just as I think Gio Gonzalez due for a reality check, Manny will have issues with patient lineups. As for the 2012 season, the Yankees' mid-January moves have set back Manny's chances at a regular rotation spot for the season. The recent acquisitions of Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda have shifted two of Freddy Garcia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes to the bullpen. They will likely lean whoever is moved to the pen for spot starts and long-term injury replacements during the season. This will give Banuelos the entire season to hone his craft on a regular basis in Triple-A, allowing him to work on improvements to his control before possibly getting a chance next season. Kuroda and Garcia will be free agents at the end of the season and taking on a portion Burnett's contract may be more palatable to another team with only the 2013 season remaining. It's highly possible that Manny toes the rubber on a regular basis in the Bronx in 2013.

Top 5 Trades of the 2007 Baseball Winter Meetings

Chris — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 14:00:10 +0000

The recent MLB Winter Meetings, combined with the trade that sent Carlos Quentin to the Padres reminded me of the last time that Kenny Williams and Josh Byrnes hooked up in a Quentin trade, the 2007 Winter Meetings. Only one "major" trade took place during the meetings, but the four other trades had impacts of their own down the road. 1. Tigers Trade for Miguel Cabrera Tigers Received: 3B Miguel Cabrera LHP Dontrelle Willis Marlins Received: OF Cameron Maybin LHP Andrew Miller C Mike Rabelo RHP Eulogio De La Cruz RHP Burke Badenhop RHP Dallas Trahern This was obviously the deal of the Winter Meetings. Cabrera has been an offensive powerhouse for the Tigers and has been mentioned in the AL MVP vote about every season he's been there. Willis is another story, he fell apart after moving to Detroit and was never the dominant pitcher he once was. Regardless, Dombrowski extended him and paid dearly for it. He found limited success last season, but not with the Tigers. Maybin struggled in Florida, but a change of scenery in San Diego has helped. The Marlins received to relievers on their end for him. Andrew Miller was ineffective and has since been traded to Boston. Rabelo spent some time as a backup catcher for the Marlins, but never hit enough to hold the position long enough. Cruz was bounced around in a number of roles and found him self on the Padres and the Brewers after the trade. He did have some success this season in Milwaukee's pen, though it was a Bey limited sample. Badenhop has been the most useful of the three eighties in this deal, pitching over 50 innings out of the pen the past couple seasons before being traded to the Rays this winter. Trahern never hit his stride and therefore never reached the majors. This trade was an obvious win for the Tigers, even with Willie's ineffectiveness and contract as well as Cabrera's off field issues. 2. White Sox pick up Hard Hittin' Carlos Quentin White Sox Received: OF Carlos Quentin Diamondbacks Received: 1B Chris Carter Since Kenny Williams and Josh Byrnes teamed up to trade Carlos Quentin again this winter, reviewing this trade seems appropriate. From a player to player comparison, Kenny Williams obviously won this trade for the White Sox as Quentin has been a productive middle of the order bat for the team since he was traded for. His defense on the other hand.... Carter was D-Back property for 11 days as he was flipped to Oakland as part of a trade for Dan Haren. Although Byrnes didn't win by value for value, he used Carter's value at the time as a piece to land Haren, Carter's value has since dropped. Chris has since had some decent seasons in the minors, but hasn't excelled in the majors. He will have to push past a potential "Four-A" hitter label this season if he wishes to have a Major League career. 3. Nationals obtain Clippard Yankees Received: RP Jonathan Albaladejo Nationals Received: SP Tyler Clippard The Yankees were looking for a pitcher to fill a middle relief role. Albaladejo was a hard thrower that performed well in an audition with the Nationals in 2007, pitching to a 1.88 ERA and a 0.628 WHIP. But the walks hit him hard in New York and he never posted a WHIP below 1.50 in parts of three seasons with the Yankees. Clippard on the other hand would eventually move into a role that the Yankees would've loved for Albaladejo to develop into. He has become the setup man for the back-end of the bullpen and has even closed a few games. Tyler has excelled in relief and had his best season yet in 2011 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.838 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and an All Star Game appearance. 4. Braves Snatch Infante Braves Recieved: IF Omar Infante LHP Will Ohman Cubs Recieved: RHP Jose Ascanio The Braves filled their short-term needs with this deal. Ohman was a vaible lefty out of the pen in 2008 and saw a career high in innings pitched, along with career lows in BB/9 and HR/9. He left via free agency after the season. Infante had three very good seasons as a utility infielder in Atlanta, including an All Star selection in 2010. He was then used in the Dan Uggla deal after that season. Ascaino's 2007 season at Double-A proved to be an abberation and he wasn't successful in various trips to the Majors with the Cubs and then the Pirates. 5. Nationals pick up Hazardous Dukes This was a tough one to decide on as the rest of the trades didn't really help any team much. The Freddy Guzman for Chris Shelton trade was intriguing as I was always interested in Guzman and his speed (90 SB in the minors in 2003). But both players became "Four-A" players during their peak. The Tigers traded Jose Capellan to the Rockies for Denny Bautista. Everyone drooled over Bautista's strikeouts during his career, but his walks were loathsome. Although he pitched to a 3.32 ERA in Detroit, his 1.526 WHIP didn't make him a keeper. Finally, it was settled that the Elijah Dukes to the Nationals trade had the biggest impact, in more ways than one. Nationals Received: OF Elijah Dukes Rays Received: LHP Glenn Gibson Dukes was known for his hot head as much as his potential talent. The Nationals gave him his best chance in the Majors and he hit a respectable .256/.359/.430 in two seasons, including an .864 OPS in 2008. He didn't hit that well in his second season there and spent plenty of time in the minors. Dukes hasn't been back to the Majors since. Gibson fell apart after moving to the Rays. He displayed a very nice 1.069 WHIP in Low-A for Nationals system before being shipped out, but a 1.894 for the Rays the next year. He never returned to the success he had in 2007.

The Kila Ka’aihue Award – December 2011: Brandon Dickson

Chris — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 23:30:21 +0000

Each month TBO provides the Kila Ka'aihue Award to one ball player who's path to the majors has been blocked by an existing player in his position, or just by the sheer.....general discretion of the front office staff. Sure, the player may never result in a regular in the majors, but they should at least get their chance somewhere. Starting pitching is a relatively tough area to award a Kila Ka'aihue Award to. If you pitch well enough, you are more than likely good enough to replace the major league team's fifth starter, become an injury replacement, or will fit into the bullpen. Pitching is always needed and a decent starting pitcher is rarely blocked. But perusing through the PCL statistics I found one starter that should get an extended chance in the majors, Brandon Dickson of the Memphis Cardinals. Amongst qualifying starting pitchers in the PCL, "Cotton" was third in the league in WHIP (1.28) and 5th overall in ERA (3.95). Although those stats are decent, but not mind-boggling good, they have to be taken in context, the PCL is a hitter-friendly league. FutureRedbirds.net has a very good write-up on Dickson from 2010 and he seems to have improved since then. With a low-90s sinking fastball, a curve, and an "improving changeup", Dickson has a three pitch mix that has gotten him to Triple-A and a cup-of-coffee in St. Louis. His strikeout rate has increased each season since 2008 and his walk rate has each season since then as well. In a recent post on Minor League Ball, John Sickels provided a preliminary ranking of the Cardinals prospects for 2012. Dickson came in 18th on the list. Sickels noted:

18) Brandon Dickson, RHP, Grade C+: You probably won't see him this high on other lists, as an older prospect without first-class stuff. But he throws strikes, and could surprise us with a surprising run of success if given a little luck and defensive support. There are many guys with higher upside in the system that you could list here instead, but I wanted to draw notice to Dickson.

All that said, would Dickson survive as a 5th starter? It's possible, on a poor team, but more likely he would fit in a big league team as a relief pitcher. With a move to the pen it is possible that Brandon could add a couple mph to his fastball. When combined with his already very good ground ball tendencies, Dickson may be a decent middle-relief arm in the pen down the road. He just needs an extended chance.

Trade Bait: Rizzo Traded Again, Now a Cubbie

Chris — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 14:08:47 +0000

Anyone getting the feeling that the major league front offices are starting to become one big fraternity? Theo Epstien's regime, that came from Boston, just traded with a GM in San Diego (Josh Byrnes) who used to be an assistant under Theo as well as the current Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, for a player who was originally drafted by Boston. Recently, the Cubs traded young pitcher right-hander Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na to the San Diego Padres for first baseman Anthony Rizzo and right-hander Zach Cates. Rizzo, of course, is the centerpiece of this deal as he was a notable portion of the Adrian Gonzalez trade from the Padres to the Red Sox last winter and he has recently been displaced by the Mat Latos deal that brought Yonder Alonzo to play first base in San Diego. Though I'm not convinced he's going to hit for a good average, he should be a good middle of the order hitter for the Cubs down the road. Cates didn't make Baseball America's top 10 list for the Padres for 2012, nor did he make the top 25 on Minor League Ball's preliminary list, though he was mentioned under "others". But he ranked 16th on Minor League Ball's prospect list for the Cubs (posted after the trade), stating that he has a live arm and could be a breakout candidate. He has a good fastball with a plus change, but he's still working on his curveball. Cashner is a power arm that could be an could be a candidate for the rotation, but that is doubtful anymore with his injury history. It is more likely that Cashner settles in towards the back of the bullpen for San Diego. But it is not all bad, he has the stuff that he could eventually be pretty good out of a setup role and possibly close out games. Na is an outfielder with virtually no power and was caught in 1/3 of his stolen base attempts. On the good side, he's only 19, very young for a player at Double-A and he produces a good walk rate. Regardless, he seems to be a forth or more likely fifth outfielder at this point. There's an outside chance that he learns to steal bases efficiently and hits for a higher average as he matures, but I'd rather bet on Cates's chance at success. Anyone can tell you that if you can trade a reliever for a position player, do it. That adage is true with even this trade. If I had a belief that Cashner could stay healthy in a starting role, this trade would be much closer, but Andrew hasn't sold me on that in his short career. The most interesting part of this trade though is that the Cubs intend to give first base to Bryan LaHair after his tremendous season at Triple-A last year, giving Rizzo a little more seasoning in the minors. Maybe they're hopeful that LaHair will be able to produce well enough to draw some trade interest at some point during the season before they bring Rizzo up.