Much has been made about Johnny Damon’s offensive numbers being inflated by the new Yankee Stadium. Damon matched his career high of 24 homers last year at the age of 36. He also posted the highest slugging percentage of his career and with 17 of his homers coming at home he clearly benefitted from the short porch. How might the move to a much more spacious Comerica Park effect Damon’s 2010 production?

Using the ever-valuable Hit Tracker we can see exactly where each of Damon’s homers landed in 2009. But with a little image manipulation we can overlay Damon’s homer onto Comerica Park’s dimensions and get a feel for the impact of his new home park would have on his production.

Five of Damon’s homers would have come up short in Comerica Park, and two to three more would have been in jeopardy as well.

Clearly Damon benefitted from the shallow dimensions at Yankee Stadium, but did he “luck into” those homers or did he he alter his swing to make make the most of those dimensions? Scott Boras claimed that Damon tried to hook homers at Yankee Stadium while using his whole-field approach other places.

Grabbing the balls-in-play plotted data from the MLB Gameday application it is easy enough to see if Boras was correct in his assessment, or just making claims with little regard for factual accuracy.

Similar to what I did with the assessment I did of Curtis Granderson, I calculated the vector of each ball in play and then classified each as opposite field, up-the-middle, or pulled. First the table for Yankee Stadium (the new version of course in 2009 and the old version in 2007-8)

And now the road version.

Damon has begun to pull the ball more in each of the last 3 years, but that isn’t limited to Yankee Stadium. He exhibited the same tendencies on the road, and in 2009 it was even slightly more pronounced.

It doesn’t appear that Damon concocted a special swing he only used in Yankee Stadium last year. He appeared to pull the ball no matter where he was. Damon will still likely hit his share of homers, but a total in the mid teens is a more likely outcome. As is a line that is closer to his 2009 road numbers (284/349/446) than his homer inflated home line (279/382/533).

Thanks to Jason Beck for tweeting the line of the day. Dave Dombrowski was talking about Johnny Damon and the White Sox interest and offered up this gem. Dombrowski also confirmed that the Tigers have an offer out to Damon, and that he expects the saga to end, but that isn’t nearly as entertaining.

With spring training underway there has been a flood of news bubbling up from Lakeland (and of course there are those pesky Johnny Damon rumors). But one that caught my eye was Jim Leyland’s dismissal of Scott Sizemore as the number two hitter. Somewhat understandably I suppose he doesn’t want rookies batting in the top two spots . But why pencil in Austin Jackson as the leadoff hitter in the first place?

Jackson certainly has a number of tools and is deservedly ranked on many top 100 prospect lists. Plate discipline hasn’t been one of those strengths though. He has a respectable .356 OBP as a minor leaguer, but he also fanned 2.3 times for every walk he took.

Sizemore’s greatest asset is his bat. He has maintained a .383 OBP throughout his minor league career supported by a .305 batting average and drawing walks in 13% of his plate appearances. His K/BB ratio is 1.3.

I won’t pretend to know who will have the better season and who will adjust quicker to big league pitching.  But based on all the available data it would point to Sizemore having the better chance at putting up at least a league average on base percentage. The difference though in Jim Leyland’s mind is that Jackson plays center and accordingly he should hit leadoff so he can make things happen.

I couch this all in the fact that I don’t really believe lineups make that big of a difference, and Leyland’s quotes on pitcher and catcher reporting day probably mean even less. But it a suspicious thought process where Jackson has the leadoff spot to lose while Sizemore is pushed to the lower rungs of the lineup.

Photo Credit: Roger DeWitt (hueytaxi on Flickr)

The Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander have agreed to a 5 year contract worth $80 million according to Larry Lage of the AP. Verlander was at the Tigers Lakeland facility working out earlier today. The deal locks up the ace through the 2014 season and it bests the 5 year $78 million deal that Felix Hernandez received earlier this month.

A long an expensive contract for any player, and pitchers in particular, is a risk. But there are certain players that are worth a gamble. Verlander had 2 years until free agency where if he continues to perform he would have netted a deal well in excess of $100 million. The Tigers secured his first 3 years of free agency at what will hopefully be a bargain.

The Hernandez comparisons are especially germane, and if you like the King Felix signing the Verlander one is just as palatable. Verlander has been at least an $11 million pitcher in each of his 4 years and with his big season in 2009 he has produced $80 million in value for the Tigers. He was likely to make about $8-9 million in 2010 regardless. He guaranteed himself an additional 4 years and $70 million.

While I think that Hernandez should get more because he is 3 years younger and if I had to pick one, I’d pick Hernandez, both are exceptional pitchers with similarly impressive resumes. I don’t want to get into a Felix/Justin debate. They are both studs and a difference of a couple million over 5 years isn’t really a difference at all.

I am concerned about Verlander’s workload the past few seasons, and last year in particular. He didn’t seem to suffer any consequences though and the hope is that JV is one of those freaks. The upside is that the contract expires when Verlander is only 31 meaning that like Cabrera, the Tigers have locked him up for his peak years.

Photo credit:  Hueytaxi on flickr – photo taken February 3rd, 2010

The forum is yours today. Care to debate the merits of Johnny Damon in a Tigers uniform? Go for it. How about an extension for Verlander? Have at it. Are you going to spring training this year? What games are you targeting when single game tickets go on sale March 6th? If you’re a fantasy baseball player what do you think about Bloomberg Sports new product? Did you know it is NASA week in Michigan? It’s a blank page Monday. Fill it up.

Baseball Prospectus released the first run of their 2010 PECOTA numbers this week, which makes for much fun in the stat-centric baseball community. PECOTA differentiates itself from many of the other predictors by finding pools of comparable players to make their predictions. While the numbers are premium content (and can also be found in the printed annual), I will share a few of the items that jumped out at me about the Tigers.

The system puts the Tigers at 78-84 which is 3rd place in the AL Central behind the division leading Twins (83-79) and the second place White Sox (80-82). The Tigers run prevention is pegged at 2nd in the division at 776 runs allowed; the White Sox are first at 751. But an offense full of questions from young and old players alike is expected to be the division’s worst.

At an individual level the system predicted two pairs of players to be remarkably similar. On the pitching side of things Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are expected to be nearly identical. Scherzer gets a slight edge in ERA (.12 runs better) and strikeout rate while Verlander gets the edge in walk rate and home run rate, but these differences are remarkably small.

On the offensive side of things, Alex Avila and Gerald Laird are projected to be equivalent players offensively. They are within 5 points of BA, 2 points of OBP and 1 point of SLG of each other. Before discrediting the system altogether keep in mind a couple things. First, Avila of course shined in his brief stint with the Tigers, but those numbers were better than what he’d posted as a minor leaguer and shouldn’t be used as his benchmark going forward. Second, there is very little data to draw from in predicting Avila, and there isn’t a great collection of similar players to project from. Avila’s similarity score is 37, which is quite low.

Of course predictions are just predictions. Things will deviate, but there is some solid methodology behind many of the numbers. BP’s defensive metrics aren’t their strong suit and the Tigers could have some more upside on the run prevention end of things. But a slightly below .500 record does “feel” right for this team right now. So does a shot at the division if a few things fall the Tigers way (Jackson/Sizemore/Robertson/Bonderman/left field). Such is life in the AL Central.

You have probably noticed things have been very quiet around here. I normally find ways to generate a number of posts even when the news cycle lulls. That hasn’t happened here since the winter meetings. I’m not sure when that is going to change. I know you don’t come here to read about me, you come to read about and discuss the Tigers, so I’ll keep this short. But I feel I owe all of you an explanation.

The winter meetings and most importantly the blockbuster trade hit me hard. As a fan I was quite frankly bummed out and as a blogger I was worn out. Put the two together and the last thing I wanted to do was talk about baseball and the Tigers. This was a new sensation. This freed up at least 8-10 hours a week that I backfilled by spending more time with my family, and taking a much more active role as husband and father. It turns out I really like those roles.

My family sacrifices quite a bit to this blog. We take vacations only where there is wireless. I rush putting the kids to bed during the season so I can watch the game and moderate comments. I don’t have a lot of meaningful conversations in the evening with my wife during the summer months. Throw in the fact that I end up sleeping only 4-5 hours a night and stop working out completely and it isn’t a healthy lifestyle.

Now that the focus is on the 2010 season, the juices are starting to flow again. But the time still isn’t there. My day job has taken a turn where that is consuming more hours than ever before, and now that I want to write I have even less time to do it.

What I’m saying is that I need to figure out where this blog fits into my life while keeping the things most important to me in the forefront. It will be a work in progress. You will likely see more posts in the coming weeks than you have in the past month. I don’t want to overpromise anything, but considering how dead things have been the goal isn’t that lofty.

Thanks for your patience and understanding.

The Tigers today managed to scrounge up $23 million and invested that in Jose Valverde. The deal is reportedly 2 years and $14 million plus a $9 million option for a 3rd year. For a team looking to be more fiscally responsible and acquire cheap young high end talent to build for the future this move makes no sense.

Valverde is a pretty good pitcher. He fans better than a batter an inning with moderate control making him a 3.47 FIP pitcher for his career. He also brings some experience to a very very young bullpen. There might be some value in that. In short, the Tigers are better than they were yesterday. But…

This is a team, that depending on your take on the situation, was either:

• Trying to get younger and build for the future. Or…
• Trying to shed payroll

Which makes spending $7 million a year the next 2 years for 120 innings perplexing to say the least. Throw in the fact that the Tigers spent the 2008 draft acquiring college relievers who were close to big league ready, and that they insisted on Daniel Schlereth being part of the Granderson/Jackson trade, and none of it makes sense.

The Tigers based on run differential were a .500 team in 2009 and they have moved the wrong direction this year. Even in a weak division I don’t see Valverde being the difference between contending and not contending meaning that Valverde is more luxury than necessity. A luxury that not only costs them money, but also Detroit’s first round draft pick. The kind of pick that would probably be in the top 5 prospects in the Tigers system.

Valverde has accumulated 6.4 wins above replacement in his career. Curtis Granderson accumulated 7.1 WAR in the last 2 seasons, one of which was supposedly so awful the Tigers just had to move him. I just don’t get the Tigers current method of resource allocation.

Image credit: cobalt123 on flickr

Gerald Laird was arrested Wednesday night for assaulting a security guard at a Phoneix Suns game. Here’s the blotter story:

Detroit Tigers catcher Gerald Laird, 30, was cited for assault. His brother Brandon Laird, 22, was cited for disorderly conduct, police said. The younger brother is a prospect in the New York Yankees minor league system.

Police also arrested Gregory Scott Collins, 51, on suspicion of assault after the 9 p.m. incident as the Suns wrapped their 116-98 win over the Boston Celtics.

Phoenix police Sgt. Andy Hill said a fourth man “inappropriately touched a female” at the lounge on level 3 of the arena, though he was not arrested because the female victim “did not want to get involved or provide us with any information and declined prosecution.”

Security previously contacted the group of men about their loud behavior, Hill said. Two of the men were allowed back into the lounge after a conversation with security, but a melee broke out shortly afterwards.

As security guards tried to arrest Brandon Laird, his brother and Collins “interfered and assaulted the security guards,” Hill said.

One shouldn’t rush to judgment on these matters, but Laird’s involvement in any way shape or form probably was a bad idea. Sigh. This Tigers team is getting hard to like. We’ll wait and see if Lynn Henning writes a series of columns about Laird being a distraction, dragging down the offense, and not being focused enough on baseball.

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The Tigers announced that they have signed Ramon Santiago to a 2 year contract. Santiago has 5.095 years of service time meaning that the contract secures him through his club control years.

I’m a little surprised to see a 2 year deal for Santiago who is essentially a utility player. Terms weren’t announced, but Santiago made $825,000 last year meaning this deal will probably pay him a little over $1 million each of the next 2 seasons. Santiago is an average-ish defender who showed some surprising power the last 2 years. He was a .5 WAR player last year and a 1 WAR player the year before.

The Tigers avoid arbitration with Santiago and have 13 of their 40 players signed for 2010.

Image credit: DanCox on flickr

The last 2 years Curtis Granderson has put on a celebrity basketball game as a fundraiser for his Grand Kids Foundation. Even though his status as a Tiger was in flux, his commitment to the kids wasn’t and Granderson announced that he will be hosting the event again this season.

This year’s game will be at Birmingham Seaholm on January 24th, and this one is sure to have a little bit of a different flavor. “This will also be an emotional event on a personal level, as it will be somewhat of a goodbye from me to the fans and the city that have supported me so strongly throughout my career so far,” says Granderson.  “I hope that those fans can pack the gym and also raise a lot of money for inner city education in Michigan.”

I’ve attended both of the previous games and it makes for a great family event as all the participants seem to have a lot of fun and there is quite a bit of fan interaction.

This years squads will be coached by Lloyd Carr and new Piston Ben Gordon. Carr was a coach last year, and he’ll having returning player Desmond Howard on his team. Some of the confirmed players include Jalen Rose, Jimmy King, T.J. Duckett, Jeff Grayer, Jemele Hill, and Dana Jacobsen. There are usually some late additions to the roster as well so this list probably isn’t final.

Tickets are $30 for adults and $25 for kids and there is a family 4 pack including 2 adult and 2 child tickets for $100. Tickets and other details are available at www.grandkidsfoundation.com.

It’s Sunday evening and this concludes my foray into full time blogging. I took this week off to delve into the winter meetings and cover them to the best of my ability. It proved to be an especially eventful week for Tigers fans and this blog. With that we’ll do one last set of hot stove rumors and news nuggets and a couple other thoughts as well.

• Fernando Rodney seems to have priced himself out of 2010. His reported asking price of 3 years and $30 million has a retro-2007 feel to it.
• Saturday at midnight was the non-tender deadline – or the tender deadline depending on how you look at it. The Tigers tendered contracts to all their eligible players. I was surprised to see Bobby Seay, who will likely make $2 million next year, tendered given the Tigers impetus to shed payroll and the surplus of lefty relievers.
• Here is the complete list of non-tenders. One name that will receive some consideration is Kelley Johnson. Baseball Digest Daily takes a look to see if he has anything left to offer.
• The Tigers haven’t decided on Phil Coke’s role for 2010, but River Ave Blues doesn’t think starter would be a good choice.
• There is a pretty in depth analysis of Austin Jackson’s swing mechanics at Project Prospect (h/t Kurt who is now at Bless You Boys).
• Speaking of which, Ian Casselberry has run the good ship BYB for the last 3 years and he’s done a tremendous job. He’s stepping down, but putting the site into the more-than-capable hands of Kurt Mensching. Kurt you may know as the proprietor of Mack Avenue Tigers. Best wishes to Ian and good luck to Kurt.
• Juan Pierre, who the Tigers were linked to in a potential 3 team deal involving Carlos Guillen, may also be a target of the White Sox.
• Marcus Thames is attracting attention from the Indians and the Blue Jays.

Some final thoughts

On the trade: I have been critical of the deal on a number of fronts. I stand behind that. I don’t think the Tigers got the short end of the deal though. I’m excited to see what Austin Jackson can do and seeing Max Scherzer join the top of the rotation should mean the Tigers are in games the majority of the time. I also hope for those that have an emotional reaction to the trade they don’t take it out on the new players, or on the players who have the hefty contracts. Ordonez earned his contract and is entitled to the money. Jackson won’t be Granderson next year and measuring his accomplishments against Granderson’s is unfair. Plus everything I’ve heard about Jackson is that he is a great kid and he deserves a chance. Let’s give everyone a chance.

On blogging full time: Wow. I don’t know how guys like Matthew Cerrone (MetsBlog) and Tim Dierkes (MLB Trade Rumors) do it. After one week and 30 posts I’m exhausted – and I took Friday off! I did find it exciting though to be flipping between Tweetdeck, Google Reader, checking email, and hitting refresh on a number of sites as the rumors flowed and the deals came together. It ended up being the biggest week ever at DTW with 3 of the 4 biggest traffic days in the site’s history coming this week. I hope you found this site to be a place full of accurate and up to date information this week. We’ll now be returning to a much more modest 4-5 posts per week schedule. I’ll also be deciding what to do with the new post carousel at the top of the page. What do you think?

Lynn Henning was ahead of the curve on the Curtis Granderson trade front. He started beating the drum for a Granderson trade in October. It’s  something that I never would have seen coming. So kudos to Henning and his crystal ball. But why in the aftermath of the trade has he become so completely anti-Granderson and such a staunch supporter of all things Tigers?

On October 20th Henning wrote:

They will trade Curtis Granderson for two players. I cannot shake a personal belief that dealing Granderson is their only way out of heading into 2010 with zero chance to win the division.

While I disagree that keeping Granderson would have prevented them from winning the division, the accuracy is remarkable here. Henning would go on to say that the Tigers would use the trade to pick up a bullpen arm and a position prospect. He guessed on shortstop as the position, but pretty uncanny.

Henning continued the theme into November blogging about the possibility of a trade and this time saying it wasn’t about the finances, but that it was a means to get younger players in position to help the team.

As the winter meetings approached and other baseball executives were told that the Tigers were shopping Granderson, Henning picked up steam putting the odds at 80%. Other writers thought that the Tigers were asking for such a steep price for Granderson that he likely wouldn’t be on the move with Peter Gammons saying that the price was Phil Hughes and Austin Jackson. Only Henning and USA Today writer Bob Nightengale saw the burning desire for the Tigers to move Granderson.

They added young arms and now have arguably the best pitching, big leagues to the minors, of any organization in baseball.
- Lynn Henning

When the trade went down Henning penned a number of articles talking about how Dombrowski is building an enduring roster. He was cautioning fans to not judge the trade by 2010 and to get use to a payroll two-thirds of what the Tigers have maintained. Henning was effusive in his praise for the new Tigers and spoke of how the team will now be competitive for the next decade.

If Henning wants to sound like a member of the Tigers PR department, that’s fine. And if he’s celebrating conjuring up this trade that seemed farfetched in October but came to fruition in December, no problem. What I have issue with is the negative Granderson articles that he has come out with since the trade.

There was the section of a recent article called The Downside of Grand which listed  his salary figures for the remainder of the contract ($25.5 million). It also listed his batting average against left handers each of the last 4 years. The article also selectively listed his less poor September and October batting averages each of the last 2 years.

My rebuttal is that even in Granderson’s “down year” he was valued as a $15.3 million player and over the last 4 years he’s been worth $79.8 million with his lowest year coming in 2006 when he was valued a $14.6 million. He won’t make more than $10 million in any year during his contract unless a club option for $13 million is picked up in 2013. With regard to hitting lefties, he has a .894 career OPS against righties – who he faces in 76% of his plate appearances. As for late season fades, he has a .797 career OPS in September/October.

Selective stat picking isn’t a crime. I’ve done it here to make points as well, though I do try and present a complete picture as often as possible. I’m more troubled by articles like Granderson was beloved but on the decline.

Here Henning uses phrases like “fell from grace” and he spoke of “building tension in the clubhouse.” He essentially threw the Tigers offensive struggles all on the shoulders of Granderson.

Granderson, even as he hit 30 home runs, came to embody the Tigers’ sputtering, sprint-and-slip offense. The supposed ignition switch often became a drag on a batting order that seemed to deflate or inflate based on what Granderson was doing.

That an offense with Adam Everett, Gerald Laird, and Brandon Inge composing a third of the lineup and one that saw Clete Thomas batting third far too often deflated based on Granderson’s performance is ludicrous. Is Henning really blaming all the offense’s struggles on Granderson here? Is Granderson supposed to ignite Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, Aubrey Huff, Marcus Thames and every other hitter?

But it gets better. Henning also blamed Granderson for doing too much for the community.

If it were just a matter of having an off season, the Tigers might have lived with it. But it goes deeper than that. Granderson has been spread too thin in Detroit. In that respect, his charm is also his curse.

snip

One must be careful about making criticisms here. But this feeling has been deep for a very long time, mostly because Granderson, for all his decency, on too many days appeared to be putting in more of a work shift than concentrating adequately on a game that must be played with consummate passion and attention.

That Granderson did fewer outside appearances in 2009 than he did in his quad-20 2007 season didn’t seem to deter Henning from questioning his commitment to the Tigers. Granderson’s work ethic has never before been questioned, and it shouldn’t be now either. Henning failed to note the extra work that Granderson would put in, such as making the trek to Toledo on several occasions to get in extra hitting work with Mud Hens coach Bull Durham.

It’s hard to argue with Granderson’s batting average last year (though a deeper dive would tell you it isn’t a reason to be concerned) or his struggles with left handed pitching. Those are facts and a matter of record. However, criticizing his commitment to baseball or his passion for the game is out of bounds – and to do it in the context of his giving back to the community  – is itself worthy of criticism.

In too many people’s rush to look at all the things Granderson can’t do (mediocre arm, strikes out too much, can’t hit lefties) they have forgotten the things that he can do. He hits for power, works the count, takes walks, runs the bases, and plays above average defense and he does it all for a contract that is a relative bargain. Maybe that’s why Brian Cashman wanted him so much.

The Curtis Granderson trade hasn’t set well with me from the outset. I’ve taken some time to mull everything over and look at it a number of ways. I think I’ve moved past the emotional component. I’ve taken a look back at the new Tigers and the return is OK. But therein lies the problem. The return was just OK in my view. An OK return isn’t enough to trade a player that didn’t have to be traded. It just doesn’t add up.

I know I’m not alone in this. Other Tigers bloggers who I respect for their thoughtful and analytic approach are still struggling with it as well. Like them, it is with the chronology of the deal that doesn’t make sense.

Joel Sherman first reported that the Tigers told the Diamondbacks that Max Scherzer wasn’t enough for Edwin Jackson which is how Daniel Schlereth came to be in the deal which is how the Yankees came into the deal.

I understand trying to maximize the trade value for Jackson, but wouldn’t a straight Scherzer for Jackson trade have accomplished the Tigers mission. They would have realized a net savings of $3-$4 million for 2010 while netting an additional 3 years of club control while not taking a step back on the field. Why not make that trade, forego Schlereth and keep Granderson on the team?

Perhaps Dombrowski shares the Diamondbacks concern that Scherzer can’t stay in the rotation because of violent delivery. If that’s the case the trade looks much less appealing right at the outset.

Or maybe the financial situation is much more dire than I project it to be? That is certainly a possibility, but the difference between Jackson and Granderson on the payroll in 2010 is $5 million. It isn’t an insignificant number but giving up Granderson doesn’t seem like the best option to save $5 million. Gerald Laird and Bobby Seay will combine to make more than that in 2010. Not to mention the fact that the payroll crunch is over after 2010.

I’m just not buying it.

I understand the Tigers limited resources this year, both in terms of budgets and in attractive assets and that some difficult moves may need to be made. If the Tigers had been bowled over with an offer I would get behind it. That wasn’t the case though. Reports are that the Tigers compromised their demands to let the deal happen. It was almost as if the team HAD to trade Granderson.

What if Dombrowski asked for Scherleth just to force the Yankees into the deal to unload Granderson? The Yankees would probably put together the best package due to the presence of Austin Jackson and the ability for the team to sell it to fans that Jackson could step right in next year.

The question still becomes why? Why would Granderson have to be unloaded and quickly? There has never been even a hint of any sort of character issue and Zach Miner spoke about how the club would miss his leadership. Not to mention the fact the club seems content with Miguel Cabrera’s transgressions the final weekend of the season.

It’s all speculation at this point, but with so little making sense right now that’s what we’re left with.What I do know is that for the first time since the 2002 I’m not looking forward to the coming baseball season with hopeful anticipation.