The Economic Collapse

We Are Being Warned That The Global Fertilizer Crisis Could Push World Hunger Way Above The Current All-Time Record High

Michael — Fri, 03 Apr 2026 20:48:13 +0000

What are we going to do when global food prices go absolutely nuts and hundreds of millions of people are starving all over the planet? Even before this war with Iran erupted, world hunger was already at an all-time record high. Now, so much of the oil, natural gas and fertilizer that the globe is deeply dependent upon is trapped in the Persian Gulf. If this war drags on for months, it is inevitable that there will be massive price increases and rationing.

I realize that rationing is a very scary word, and it is not one that I use lightly. In Europe, it is being reported that fuel rationing may be coming a lot sooner than many Europeans think…

A fuel rationing warning has been issued as a major energy official shared the measures that could be taken as the war with Iran plunges the world into a deeper crisis.

The European Union is currently looking into “all possibilities” as it prepares for a “long-lasting” energy blow from Iran blocking a huge chunk of the global supply, the bloc’s energy commissioner revealed. Prices for all types of fuel, including petrol, diesel and jet fuel, have risen since the start of the Middle East war but the EU’s Dan Jorgensen revealed when the situation could soon start to deteriorate further.

Jorgensen said: “This will be a long crisis . . . energy prices will be higher for a very long time.” He added that “we expect it to be even worse in the weeks to come”.

Even if the war ended tomorrow, the damage that has been done to energy infrastructure in the Middle East would take years to fully rebuild, and more damage is being done with each passing day.

For example, a major oil refinery in Kuwait that supplies 38 percent of the UK’s imported jet fuel was just attacked by Iranian drones…

An oil refinery in Kuwait where jet fuel bound for the UK is produced has been struck by Iranian drones.

The Mina Al-Ahmadi plant was targeted by a “malicious drone attack” overnight, causing fires at “several operational units”, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) confirmed on Friday, as the Iran war goes on.

Kuwait is the UK’s primary supplier for imported jet fuel, providing 4.1 million tons – 38 per cent of the country’s imports – each year.

Supplies of oil, natural gas and fertilizer are going to get tighter and tighter, and prices are going to continue to soar.

If you can believe it, one gas station in California is already charging $9.99 for a gallon of gasoline…

In Los Angeles County, gas prices are inching close to $6 a gallon, but along California’s central coast, drivers are paying more than that to fill up their tanks.

A gas station, Gorda By The Sea, in Big Sur is allegedly charging nearly $10 per gallon. The owner said his premium gas costs $9.99 is because he’s limited by the number of digits on his pump.

People thought that I was being alarmist when I suggested that some gas stations could soon charge 7 or 8 dollars for a gallon of gasoline.

Where are those critics now?

I am even more concerned about how global supplies of natural gas are tightening, because we need natural gas to produce nitrogen fertilizer…

Why does a war in the Persian Gulf dictate the price of bread in London or corn in Iowa? To feed eight billion people, we rely on nitrogen fertilizers. Manufacturers forge these fertilizers by reacting atmospheric nitrogen with hydrogen. They get that hydrogen, and the massive amounts of power required for the reaction, directly from natural gas.

Although the region is not famous for its fertile fields, the energy-rich Middle East is a kingmaker in global agriculture. Nearly a third of the world’s fertilizer ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar alone produces 15% of the global supply of urea — a solid, easily transportable nitrogen fertilizer — and controls a staggering 50% of internationally traded urea.

Spring is planting season for farmers all over the northern hemisphere, and they desperately need the fertilizer that is currently locked up in the Middle East.

If the war with Iran does not come to a rapid conclusion, it is poor countries that will be hit the hardest…

Rising energy, shipping and fertilizer costs fueled by Tehran’s stranglehold on the crucial Strait of Hormuz trade route are already being felt in the United States, but the sharpest consequences are expected to fall on poorer, import-dependent countries unable to absorb the higher costs.

Thousands of miles from the Middle East, in Brazil, South Asia and East Africa, even small increases in the price of growing and transporting food can deepen hunger and strain already fragile food systems, where millions are already struggling to afford basic staples.

Some nations import fertilizer directly from the Middle East, and others import natural gas and make their own fertilizer.

Without sufficient supplies of imported natural gas, fertilizer plants in nations such as India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan are being forced to shut down…

The disruptions are halting production elsewhere, sometimes thousands of miles away from Tehran. Countries like India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan normally produce their own fertilizer using imported Gulf gas. Without that gas, their factories are going dark.

We have a real nightmare on our hands.

With 8 billion people living on the planet, having enough fertilizer is an absolute necessity.

One expert recently explained that if we didn’t use any fertilizer at all, about half of the population of the entire world would be starving…

The stakes of this chemical bottleneck are existential, especially for the world’s poor.

“If we stopped using mineral fertiliser completely worldwide, we would probably see half of the world starving,” Anthony Ryan at the University of Sheffield, UK, explained to New Scientist.

As I mentioned earlier, global hunger was already at the highest level that we have ever seen even before this war started.

Now the UN’s World Food Program is warning that a lack of fertilizer and natural gas could push global hunger way above the current all-time record high…

The World Food Program has warned that surging fuel and fertilizer costs, combined with shipping disruptions, could have serious consequences for global food security.

An extra 45 million people are projected to be pushed into acute hunger because of rises in food, oil and shipping costs, putting the global tally above its current record level of 319 million, WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau told reporters in Geneva last week.

“This would ‌take ⁠global hunger levels to an all-time record and it’s a terrible, terrible prospect,” he said. “Already, before this war, we were in a perfect storm where hunger has never been as severe ⁠as now, in terms of numbers and how deep that hunger is,” he added.

In order to meet the definition of “acute hunger”, there must be a severe lack of food and immediate intervention must be necessary in order to save lives.

Hundreds of millions of others around the globe go to bed hungry on a regular basis, but they do not currently fall under the formal definition of “acute hunger”.

If we cannot get nitrogen fertilizer into the hands of the farmers before planting season is over, we will see a dramatic drop in production for annual crops such as wheat, barley and corn.

Just think about how many products that you purchase on a regular basis that include wheat, barley or corn.

These days, corn is literally used in thousands of different products…

“If you’re feeling these costs now, it’s only going to continue to increase as the supply chain fills with higher-cost goods,” said Lillibridge.

“Corn is used in over 4,000 products,” he added. “It’s not just food — it’s industrial products, like your paper that you would put in your printer has cornstarch in it, plastics, just tons of things have industrial uses from corn.”

On the other hand, a lack of nitrogen fertilizer will not have much of an impact on crops that do not have to be planted every year such as olives and grapes.

We have reached such a crazy moment in human history.

If you are able to grow a garden, this would be a good year to do so.

Because I have a feeling that this war is not going to be settled any time soon, and that means that there will be a whole lot of hungry people during the second half of 2026 and beyond.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing. You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter. Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites. These are such troubled times, and people need hope. John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

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What Have They Done To Our Food?

Michael — Tue, 31 Mar 2026 20:11:53 +0000

Most of the pre-packaged garbage that we are being sold in our local grocery stores is “Frankenstein food”, but even though this is widely known most of the general population just keeps gobbling it down anyway. This is something that I have been wanting to write about for quite some time. The major food companies fully understand that they are destroying our health, and they are going to keep on doing it because nobody is going to stop them. We are talking about a crime against humanity of epic proportions, and they are totally getting away with it. It isn’t just a coincidence that cancer, heart disease and diabetes are exploding in our society today. What we are eating is making us sick, and those responsible are raking in billions of dollars.

Today, most pre-packaged foods have a very long list of ingredients. Some of the ingredients are generally recognizable, but many of them are not. Most of us just assume that the major food companies wouldn’t put anything in there that would harm us, but the truth is that most pre-packaged foods are absolutely packed with all sorts of strange substances.

100 years ago, food was food.

If you want to eat like people did 100 years ago, you have to go to the “organic” section of the grocery store, and even then many products that have been labeled “organic” have been messed with too.

Of course the vast majority of the population simply cannot afford to shop in the “organic” section because the products are simply too expensive.

So most people are forced to eat food that smells and tastes like it is artificial. A recent Reddit post about the decreasing quality of our food received a tremendous amount of attention…

Food is now just straight chemicals. I know America has always been slowly poisoning us but now they aren’t even hiding it. I had some bacon the other day and it tasted like straight up markers and bleach. I’ve seen so many videos of people melting Hershey’s chocolate and it won’t even melt, just turns to straight rubber. I would say grow a garden but the air quality sucks, the water is contaminated, the soil is tainted. Everything that’s “healthy” is expensive as hell and I just find it crazy. Thoughts?

Not everything in that post was entirely accurate, but it is certainly true that much of what we eat doesn’t even taste like food anymore.

In addition to the substances that have actually been approved by the FDA, a recent investigation discovered that more than 100 substances “of unknown safety” are being added to what we consume without any FDA oversight at all…

At least 111 substances of unknown safety have been added to foods, drinks and supplements sold in the United States without alerting the US Food and Drug Administration, a new investigation found.

“Food companies are deciding on their own to secretly add unreviewed chemical ingredients to products instead of following existing federal guidelines meant to assure food is ‘generally recognized as safe,’ or GRAS,” said Melanie Benesh, vice president for government affairs for the Environmental Working Group, a health and environmental health advocacy organization that conducted the investigation published Tuesday.

To meet the GRAS standard, companies must demonstrate a new food ingredient is safe by providing widely accepted scientific evidence that’s publicly available. Notifying the FDA of that safety data is customary and ensures regulatory compliance. It’s also voluntary — which means manufacturers can legally self-determine their products to be safe.

Are you kidding me?

I had no idea that things were this bad.

But this is the reality of life in 2026.

We have reached a stage where our pre-packaged bread doesn’t resemble normal bread at all…

A clip making the rounds online shows a woman performing a very basic “water test” on two slices of bread. One slice is Wonder Bread, one of the most widely sold breads in the United States, and the other is a slice she baked at home using traditional ingredients.

And the results are… disturbing.

When the Wonder Bread is placed under running water, the slice literally repels water. It’s only after drowning it repeatedly that the slice finally bends and starts to absorb the liquid. The Wonder Bread slice is literally less absorbant than a sponge. Then the homemade slice, on the other hand, quickly breaks down the way you would expect, instantly absorbing the water and crumbling immediately.

When I was growing up, Wonder Bread was marketed as some sort of a space age miracle.

Now we know the truth.

Like thousands of other pre-packaged food products, one of the ingredients in Wonder Bread is high-fructose corn syrup…

High-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) – called glucose-fructose syrup in the UK, glucose/fructose in Canada, and high-fructose maize syrup in other countries – is basically corn syrup that has undergone enzymatic processing to convert more or less half of its glucose into fructose. In North America, it has replaced the more expensive sucrose (table sugar) in processed foods (even ones that you wouldn’t think would be sweetened, like crackers, yogurt, and salad dressing) and beverages, where it can be labeled as “corn syrup.”

One way to dramatically improve your health is to avoid high-fructose corn syrup.

A study that was conducted at Princeton University showed that high-fructose corn syrup causes “significant weight gain in lab animals”…

A Princeton University research team has demonstrated that all sweeteners are not equal when it comes to weight gain: Rats with access to high-fructose corn syrup gained significantly more weight than those with access to table sugar, even when their overall caloric intake was the same.

In addition to causing significant weight gain in lab animals, long-term consumption of high-fructose corn syrup also led to abnormal increases in body fat, especially in the abdomen, and a rise in circulating blood fats called triglycerides. The researchers say the work sheds light on the factors contributing to obesity trends in the United States.

“Some people have claimed that high-fructose corn syrup is no different than other sweeteners when it comes to weight gain and obesity, but our results make it clear that this just isn’t true, at least under the conditions of our tests,” said psychology professor Bart Hoebel, who specializes in the neuroscience of appetite, weight and sugar addiction. “When rats are drinking high-fructose corn syrup at levels well below those in soda pop, they’re becoming obese — every single one, across the board. Even when rats are fed a high-fat diet, you don’t see this; they don’t all gain extra weight.”

The major food companies know that their products are greatly contributing to our nationwide obesity epidemic and our nationwide diabetes epidemic.

But they are never going to stop, because there is just so much money to be made.

Meanwhile, they continue to shrink package sizes so that they can make even bigger profits.

One video that has gone viral on X shows how ridiculously small a hot fudge sundae at McDonald’s has now become…

A popular X video shows a woman holding her obnoxiously tiny McDonald’s hot fudge sundae. I mean, it’s comically small. It looks like something you would give to a four-year-old child, not a grown adult.

And what’s worse? It costs $4.

Yeah, $4 for a cup of vanilla soft serve with some crappy “chocolate” sauce on top.

I can remember when a hot fudge sundae at McDonald’s was actually quite large and was priced at just 99 cents.

Sadly, there is no going back now.

Our world is changing all around us at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking.

In this environment it is so important to think for ourselves, because it has become exceedingly clear that we simply cannot trust the large corporations.

The post What Have They Done To Our Food? appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Warning From the Heartland: Historic Drought And Unexpected Fertilizer Shortages Could Mean Massive Crop Losses

Michael — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 20:14:48 +0000

Farmers all over America are on edge right now, and I certainly can’t blame them. The war in the Middle East has created a fertilizer crisis at the worst time possible. As you will see below, if nitrogen fertilizer is not applied to wheat, corn and rice at the proper time, there is no hope of recovery later. Since it does not appear that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened any time soon, there will be serious crop losses in the United States, and in poorer countries throughout the world it will be even worse.

Meanwhile, most of the country is experiencing at least some level of drought right now. If you check out the latest map from the U.S. Drought Monitor, it looks like a horror show. Even if there was no war going on in the Middle East, farmers in the U.S. would still be facing a nightmarish drought that never seems to end.

In Colorado, one family that had planned to go skiing during spring break decided to go to the beach instead because of the extremely dry conditions…

Stretching out in their beach chairs as the temperature climbed toward 70 degrees, Seth and Renee McLaughlin watched their three kids play in the sand on what was supposed to be a family ski trip.

Booked last November, their spring break vacation to Colorado’s mountains required a hard shift in plans following a historically warm and dry winter: Instead of zipping down the slopes, the couple watched their kids sift sand into colorful toy buckets on the shores of Lake Dillon.

“It’s obviously frustrating. You want to go skiing, and usually we ski until May, and instead we’re at the beach,” said Seth McLaughlin, 44, a nonprofit consultant. “I feel bad for the folks who spent tens of thousands of dollars to come on vacation here.”

There has been so little snow in most of the western half of the nation this winter.

Snowpack levels are historically low, and that means that a very rough summer is ahead.

We are only in March, and we are already seeing severe water restrictions being imposed.

For example, restaurants in Denver are forbidden from serving water unless customers specifically ask for it…

Restaurants in Colorado’s capital are only allowed to serve water to guests if they ask, according to new restrictions by the Denver Board of Water Commissioners.

“Restaurants and catering businesses shall serve water only upon request,” the mandatory irrigation restrictions read.

The rules were issued in the Mile High City after the commissioners declared a Stage 1 Drought and made plans to seek a 20 percent reduction in water use. City officials expect drought conditions to last until April 30, 2027.

That is crazy.

And hotels in Denver are being ordered to “not change sheets more often than every four days for guests staying more than one night”…

“Lodging establishments shall not change sheets more often than every four days for guests staying more than one night, except for health or safety reasons or upon express request of guests,” the Denver Board of Water Commissioners stated.

Drivers who attempt to wash their car are told to use a bucket or a hand-held hose equipped with an automatic shut-off nozzle if they don’t use a commercial car wash.

Residents can water their grass only two days per week, according to the schedule provided by city officials, but it is prohibited between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m., when the sun is up.

If things are this bad now, what will they look like once we get to the dog days of August?

USA Today talked to a water expert named Brad Udall, and he had a difficult time finding the words to describe how severe this crisis has become…

Longtime Western water expert Brad Udall said it’s hard to put into words just how bad things are. He said the early ski area closures will likely be followed by ranchers selling off cattle, and then skies darkened by wildfire smoke as dry vegetation burns.

Farmers in many areas of the Southwest simply are not going to have enough water this year.

So what are they going to do?

At the same time, U.S. farmers are also facing a fertilizer crisis that is unlike anything they have ever experienced before.

One industry insider is projecting that here in the United States there will be a shortage of at least 2 million tons of urea this spring…

“If you had sat us down before and said, ‘Hey, I want you to think of the nightmare scenario for fertilizer. What would it be?’ It would be this exact event during this exact time of year,” said Josh Linville, who oversees the global fertilizer department at the brokerage firm StoneX.

Linville says urea that had been expected to arrive in the United States next month, in the peak of planting season, won’t come.

The Fertilizer Institute predicts that U.S. farmers will be short some 2 million tons of urea this spring.

Of course it isn’t just U.S. farmers that will be dealing with a lack of fertilizer.

As John Rubino has correctly pointed out, much of the world’s fertilizer supply is now trapped behind three locks…

Lock one: the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC permissioned corridor allows oil tankers from friendly nations to pay $2 million in yuan and pass. It does not allow fertiliser vessels to pass at any price. Zero approved fertiliser transits in 24 days. The Gulf supplies 49 percent of the world’s exported urea and roughly 30 percent of traded ammonia. That supply is not delayed. It is denied. The gate opens for molecules that fund the gatekeeper. It stays closed for molecules that feed the planet.
Lock two: Russia. The world’s largest exporter of ammonium nitrate just halted all AN exports until after April 21. Three to four million tonnes per year, gone from global markets at the exact moment the Northern Hemisphere needs it most. The official reason is “domestic priority.” The strategic effect is leverage. Russia earns windfall revenue from the oil price spike its ally’s war created, then removes the fertiliser that farmers need to plant through the crisis. The disease and the cure, again, from the same address.
Lock three: China. Beijing has banned exports of nitrogen-potassium blends and phosphate fertilisers through August 2026. China is the world’s largest phosphate producer and a major nitrogen supplier. The ban removes the last alternative source that could have compensated for Hormuz and Russia. Three locks. Three countries. Three deliberate decisions timed to the same biological calendar.

None of this is going to change in time to save the spring planting season.

That means that there will be widespread crop losses, and global food supplies will start getting really tight about six months from now.

It will not matter if the Strait of Hormuz opens up in a couple of months. As Rubino has explained, nitrogen fertilizer must be applied at the correct time or it won’t work…

The biological calendar does not negotiate. Corn requires nitrogen at the V6 to VT growth stage or kernel set is permanently reduced. Wheat requires it at tillering and jointing or grain fill collapses. Rice requires it at transplanting or yield drops 20 to 40 percent in low-input systems. These are not economic models. They are cellular processes. The plant either receives nitrogen during the window or it does not. If it does not, no subsequent application, no price increase, no policy reversal can recover what was lost. The damage is written into the biology of the seed.

We desperately need the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened as soon as possible.

If this does not happen, a lot of people in impoverished nations will soon become extremely hungry.

Unfortunately, the Iranians have an extremely tight grip on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and they do not intend for that to change…

After a month of fighting, Iran arguably has secured the most significant strategic victory via its tightening grip over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported Monday.

The first full month of the war saw roughly six vessels per day on average traversing the critical waterway in either direction, compared with ~135/day in normal times, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, adding that 80% of the small number of oil tankers exiting the strait have belonged to Iran or countries with which it is on cordial terms.

Either the Trump administration will have to give the Iranians everything that they want, or the Trump administration will have to take control of the Strait of Hormuz by force.

As many have pointed out in recent weeks, taking control of the Strait of Hormuz by force would be an exceedingly difficult thing to do…

Dangers such as cruise and ballistic missiles, fast-attack boats and sophisticated naval mines await any vessel attempting to traverse the vital passage.

With transit lanes in some places only three to four miles from the Iranian shoreline, ships have less than two minutes to react to incoming strikes.

Naval escorts also face the threat of Tehran using remote-controlled boats laden with explosives to strike them.

The oil passage is narrow and shallow, forcing vessels within miles of Iran’s mountainous shores, a landscape that lends itself to asymmetric warfare tactics, in which Tehran deploys weapons that are small, widely dispersed and hard for adversaries to eliminate entirely.

It could take months to resolve this crisis.

Meanwhile, the global energy crisis will just keep getting worse with each passing day.

At this moment, tankers that left the Persian Gulf before the war began are still arriving at their destinations.

But as maritime expert Lars Jensen has pointed out, soon there will be no more tankers loaded with oil arriving, and that is when the real shortages will begin…

‘It would appear we are only at the beginning of those price escalations. We need to keep in mind that a lot of the oil that was loaded in the Persian Gulf prior to this crisis is still right now arriving in some of the refineries around the world. That will soon stop. The oil shortages we are seeing are only going to get worse. Even if magically the Strait of Hormuz would reopen tomorrow’

For some parts of the world, tankers will stop arriving in early April, and for other parts of the world tankers will stop arriving in late April.

Next month is going to be a real turning point.

And it is being reported that preparations are being made for when the price of oil reaches $200 a barrel…

Prediction market site Polymarket on Sunday reported that U.S. officials and Wall Street analysts have begun preparations for oil to top $200 a barrel as the Iran war continues and shows signs of possible escalation.

This occurs as the average price of gas across the United States remains just under $4 a gallon, but in some cities, such as San Francisco, is about to top $6 a gallon, according to data from crowdsourced gas app GasBuddy.

If the price of oil really does reach $200 a barrel, there will be extreme panic in the financial markets and everything will crash.

And the price of gasoline in the United States will be at levels we have never seen before.

If only someone would have warned us about all of this in advance, we could have gotten properly prepared.

But now nations all over the world find themselves completely and utterly unprepared for what is about to happen.

A real life nightmare is playing out right in front of our eyes, and it appears that we are still only in the very early stages.

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The Economic Damage Caused By This War Will Stretch To The End Of The Decade, And Shortages Will Go Way Beyond Oil, Gas And Fertilizer

Michael — Sun, 29 Mar 2026 20:12:09 +0000

Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow, and that is certainly not going to happen, we are being warned that the economic impact of this war will be felt all the way through the end of this decade. A lot of energy infrastructure has already been destroyed during this war, and it will take years to rebuild it. And the crop losses that we will experience in 2026 due to a lack of fertilizer will be felt long into 2027. But the shortages that we are facing go way beyond just oil, natural gas and fertilizer. As you will see below, we are also facing unprecedented shortages of pharmaceutical drugs, plastics and other vitally important goods. A global nightmare has already begun, and if we don’t get the Strait of Hormuz opened soon it will get a whole lot worse.

Since the war started, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by 90 to 95 percent…

Daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen some 90% to 95% since the conflict began, according to shipping intelligence firm Kpler, and hundreds of tankers are trapped in the Persian Gulf.

Iran has allowed a limited number of vessels to pass through the Strait, but other than that commercial traffic has essentially been paralyzed.

I have written a lot about how this is affecting the availability of oil, natural gas and fertilizer. Here in the United States, gasoline prices have been soaring and diesel prices have been going absolutely nuts…

From March 2-16, 2026, the average nationwide price of U.S. regular gasoline rose from US$3.01 to $3.96 per gallon, while diesel fuel rose from $3.89 to $5.37. Diesel prices matter to consumer costs because diesel engines power trucks, farm machines, construction equipment, fishing vessels and many of the vehicles that carry domestic freight. When items become more expensive to harvest, build and ship, diesel costs spread quickly into grocery, household and building material prices.

But this supply shock has not just been limited to oil, natural gas and fertilizer.

The CEO of Dow is warning that a global supply crisis is hitting a very wide range of industries, and he is projecting that it could take 250 to 275 days to unwind this mess once the Strait of Hormuz is opened again…

Petrochemical price spikes and shortages from the Iran war likely will cause inflationary effects at least through the end of the year on construction materials, consumer goods, the automative and aerospace industries, and much more, the CEO of chemical manufacturing giant Dow said.

While much of the global supply-shock focus is on oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and even helium for semiconductors, almost 20% of global petrochemical capacity is blocked from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint by Iran, said Dow chair and CEO Jim Fitterling.

“The die is being cast for the rest of the year for what’s going to happen in the markets,” Fitterling said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston. “It’s like the unwind we saw on supply chains during COVID.

“You could be in the 250- to 275-day [range]. This is not going to be an instantaneous rewind.”

Of course all of the economic infrastructure that has been destroyed on both sides will not be rebuilt in 250 to 275 days.

Sadly, the truth is that it will take years to fully rebuild all of that infrastructure even if the war ended immediately.

So ultimately I agree with those that are warning that the economic impact of this war “will stretch until the end of the decade”…

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens roughly a fifth of global oil supply and the liquefied natural gas trade. But it is not only the price at the petrol pump that will hit your pocket — the disruption to shipping may cause shortages of everything from food and beer to medicine and MRIs.

Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, the damage to energy facilities from missile strikes will take years to repair. In the uncertainty over how the war will end, one thing is certain: the economic effects will stretch until the end of the decade.

Most people in the western world have no idea how this war could potentially affect their daily lives.

At this stage, we are being warned that we could soon witness very serious shortages of some pharmaceutical drugs…

Rising energy prices will affect the pharmaceutical industry, where energy accounts for as much as a quarter of the cost of manufacturing the raw ingredients of drugs. But the flow of crude oil by-products, such as the petrochemicals used to create nearly 90 per cent of those ingredients, is also affected by the strait’s closure.

India, known as the pharmacy of the world, is reliant on Qatar for about 40 per cent of the crude oil imports used to create such petrochemicals.

Generic medicines including antibiotics, blood pressure medication, paracetamol and diabetes drugs such as metformin are at the greatest potential risk. Drugs requiring refrigeration during transit, including most vaccines and cancer medications, typically flow through Dubai and Doha airports, so airspace closures compound the crisis.

This isn’t something that will start happening many months from now.

In fact, it is being reported that the UK is just “a few weeks away” from experiencing drug shortages…

Britain is “a few weeks away” from medicine shortages ranging from painkillers to cancer treatment if the Iran war continues, according to experts, while drug prices could also rise.

Most people out there still seem to think that conditions will soon return to normal.

In a way, that is a good thing because it is keeping people calm.

But once reality starts setting in, there will be panic.

We will also soon witness a global supply crunch for various types of plastic products…

Another product refined from crude oil is naphtha, often called the mother of plastics. It is primarily transported to Asia and used to create ethylene, propylene and benzene, which play a role in the manufacture of plastic bags, bottles, food containers, IV bags, synthetic fibres such as polyester and even medicines such as antidepressants and anti-epileptics.

Roughly two thirds of Asia’s naphtha requirements originate in the Gulf.

How many of the products that you regularly purchase come wrapped in plastic?

Just think about that for a moment.

What is going to happen when manufacturers are not able to get the plastic that they need to wrap those products?

If this war persists, we are going to see thousands upon thousands of supply chain breakdowns.

And the Houthis could make this crisis even worse by shutting down the Bab al-Mandab Strait…

The Houthis control most of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the major port of Hodeidah. They have a range of weapons – including drones and anti-ship missiles – that can cause severe damage and even sink merchant ships.

Shipping has to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait – which translates as the Gate of Tears – at the southern end of the Red Sea. Just 29 kilometers (18 miles) across at its narrowest point, the navigational challenges would make huge container vessels particularly vulnerable to attack.

On Friday, Mohammed Mansour, deputy Information Minister in the Houthi government, told CNN that closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait “is a viable option, and the consequences will be borne by the American and Israeli aggressors.”

Nearly 15 percent of all global maritime trade travels through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

If the Houthis were inclined to do so, they could also shut down the Suez Canal.

We are potentially facing a disruption to global trade that has no parallel in history.

So let us hope that this war ends soon.

If it doesn’t, the economic pain that our planet will experience will be absolutely unbearable.

The post The Economic Damage Caused By This War Will Stretch To The End Of The Decade, And Shortages Will Go Way Beyond Oil, Gas And Fertilizer appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Lockdown 2.0: The IEA Has Released 10 Guidelines To Help The Public Prepare For The Coming Fuel Shortages And “Energy Lockdowns”

Michael — Thu, 26 Mar 2026 19:41:25 +0000

Are we really going to go through this again? It appears that the Iranians are absolutely determined to keep traffic through the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed until they get what they want. In order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an absolutely massive military operation would be required, and perhaps we will see such an operation in the days ahead. But for now approximately 2,500 ships continue to be trapped inside the Persian Gulf, and this is already starting to create fuel shortages in some parts of the globe. If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened for months, the fuel shortages will become extremely serious and it is inevitable that “energy lockdowns” will be imposed.

Don’t think that it can’t happen. Even now, the term “energy lockdown” is trending on social media all over the world…

A new term has begun trending on social media as the global oil crisis deepens: “energy lockdown.” While the phrase evokes memories of COVID-19 restrictions, experts say it describes something very different—a set of government-enforced or encouraged measures to reduce fuel, gas and electricity consumption in response to severe supply shocks.

The term gained traction following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran-Israel-US conflict, which has cut off about 20% of global oil supplies. On March 24, the sixth anniversary of India’s first COVID-19 lockdown, the term peaked as public anxiety mixed with historical memory.

As you will see below, so far most of the energy-saving restrictions which have been introduced are voluntary.

But as global energy supplies get tighter and tighter, it is probably just a matter of time before mandatory restrictions become widespread.

The International Energy Agency is giving us some clear indications of what could be ahead. They have just released a list of 10 emergency guidelines that some users on social media are calling a “playbook” for future energy lockdowns…

The “World’s energy watchdog” has announced a list of emergency measures the public should take to help deal with the ongoing energy crisis triggered by the war in the Middle East.

Many on social media have branded the emergency energy playbook as “lockdown 2”. One critic said: “We’re not doing this again.” The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released the list of guidelines encouraging countries across the globe to reduce fuel usage.

The suggestions given in the report, called “Sheltering from oil shocks”, consists of 10 steps focused on curbing fuel consumption. The IEA has also advised member countries – such as the UK and Australia – to prepare emergency measures to overcome oil demand.

Needless to say, we are not being encouraged to wear masks this time around.

But we are being encouraged to avoid driving and to stay home.

The following is the full list of 10 guidelines that the IEA has just released…

Work from home where possible
Reduce highway speed limits by at least 10km/h
Encourage public transport
Alternate private car access to roads in large cities on different days
Increase car sharing and adopt efficient driving practices
Efficient driving for road commercial vehicles and delivery of goods
Divert LPG (liquified petroleum gas) use from transport
Avoid air travel where alternative options exist
Where possible, switch to other modern cooking solutions
Leverage flexibility with petrochemical feedstocks and implement short term efficiency and maintenace measures

I think that they realize that there simply is not going to be enough fuel for everyone if this war does not end soon.

This is going to be particularly true in Asia, because they buy more than 80 percent of the oil that travels through the Strait of Hormuz…

Countries across Asia are reviving Covid-era playbooks — from work-from-home policies to fuel-saving curbs and subsidies — as they scramble to respond to a deepening energy crisis triggered by the Iran war, Reuters reported.

The region is at the frontline of the disruption, buying more than 80% of the crude that transits the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery that has been largely blocked since the conflict began on February 28.

This isn’t a crisis that is going to happen in a few weeks or a few months.

This is a crisis that is happening now.

As I write this article, national governments in Asia “are preparing for worst-case energy scenarios”…

Governments across Asia are preparing for worst-case energy scenarios that could include a prolonged and severe disruption to supplies, even as the U.S. draws up a plan to end the war in Iran.

South Korea shifted into crisis mode on Wednesday, setting up an emergency economic task force to urgently prepare for adverse scenarios. The Philippines declared a national emergency, citing an “imminent danger of a critically low energy supply.”

Japan is reviewing its entire supply chain of petroleum-related products as the likelihood builds of shortages and knock-on effects across the economy, while India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned the war could cause unprecedented challenges for the nation.

During a couple of his recent speeches, Modi made some comments that have caused a great deal of concern in India…

In his speeches in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha on Monday and Tuesday about the West Asia conflict, Prime Minister Narendra Modi recalled how India faced the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated global supply chain disruptions.

“In the past too, our government did not allow the burden of global crises to fall on the farmers,“ Modi said in his address in Lok Sabha on the West Asia crisis on Monday.

On Tuesday, speaking in the Rajya Sabha, PM Modi almost repeated what he had said the day before in the Lok Sabha. Modi called upon the nation to “remain prepared and united, just as it had stood together during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Following those speeches, Internet searches for “energy lockdown” absolutely skyrocketed.

People in India really are concerned that we could see a repeat of the darkest days of the pandemic.

Even now, the ceramics industry in the state of Gujurat has been “shut down for the best part of a month” due to a lack of fuel…

In the western state of Gujurat, a shortage of gas rather than oil has seen the region’s ceramics industry shut down for the best part of a month.

With no end in sight to the Iran conflict, the 400,000 people employed in the trade have been left in limbo.

“I will have to go hungry if I continue staying here without work,” Sachin Parashar, a migrant worker, told a local news channel.

In the vast metropolis of Mumbai, approximately 20 percent of the hotels and restaurants have already been shuttered…

In Mumbai – a city of more than 22 million people – as many as a fifth of all hotels and restaurants fully or partially shut in the first weeks of March. Items which take longer to cook are absent from menus. Long queues have formed across the nation as people try to get their hands on gas cylinders, even as the government tries to calm fears of a shortage.

“The situation [in restaurants] is dire. Cooking gas simply isn’t available,” Manpreet Singh, of the National Restaurant Association of India, which represents about 500,000 restaurants, told the BBC.

This war hasn’t even been going on for a month yet.

So what will things look like if this war continues for at least several more months?

In Sri Lanka, every Wednesday is now a “public holiday” in a desperate attempt to conserve fuel.

In Pakistan, schools have been closed for two weeks and cricket fans are being urged to stay home…

In Pakistan, authorities have asked cricket fans to stay home and watch matches on television instead of travelling, in an effort to save fuel. At the same time, the government is considering limits on how much fuel vehicles can use, according to sources familiar with the plan.

The situation is also worsening in Bangladesh, where long lines have formed at fuel stations, with some stretching up to a kilometre. Many fertiliser plants have been shut down to conserve energy, while the government is trying to secure about $2 billion in loans to meet rising power demand during the summer months.

Here in the United States, we should be very thankful that we are not as dependent on Middle Eastern oil as we once were.

Because just about everyone in Asia is really hurting right now.

Japan is tapping into their strategic reserves, and South Korea is strongly considering it…

The two east Asian nations are being rocked by surging import costs, forcing factories to scale back and governments to tap emergency reserves.

Japan, which imports more than 90% of its oil from the region, has begun tapping strategic reserves. South Korea is weighing reserve releases and emergency support measures.

Just about all of the oil that is used by the Philippines comes from the Middle East, and they have already declared a national energy emergency…

The Philippines just became the first country to declare a national energy emergency, warning of “an imminent danger of a critically low energy supply.” The island imports 98% of its oil from the gulf.

Needless to say, this is just the beginning.

If the war does not end soon, Europe will start to run out of fuel next month…

However, without a return of crude deliveries from the Gulf to global buyers via the crucial Hormuz channel, Europe could face shortages of fossil fuels within weeks, according to Wael Sawan.

The Shell chief executive told an oil industry conference in Texas: “South Asia was first to get that brunt. That’s moved to south-east Asia, north-east Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April.”

We have never seen anything like this.

If this war stretches into the summer, there will be global panic.

Already, panic buying has caused shortages at hundreds of gas stations in Australia…

Hundreds of service stations across Australia have run out of fuel, with the federal government inking a deal with Singapore, one of the country’s biggest sources of refined petroleum, to keep supplies of diesel and petrol flowing.

Concerns are now broadening to supplies of fertiliser and other chemicals, heaping more pressure on the Albanese government’s leveraging of overseas exports of coal and gas in a bid to handle of the crisis.

The energy minister, Chris Bowen, told federal parliament on Monday that 109 outlets in Victoria had run out of at least one grade of petrol, that there were 47 outlets in Queensland with no diesel and 32 without regular unleaded, and that 37 stations in New South Wales had run out of petrol.

I wish that I could tell you that the war will be over quickly and that conditions will return to normal very soon.

But I can’t do that.

The CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, is telling us that he believes that if the price of oil reaches 150 dollars a barrel it will cause a global recession…

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is warning that a prolonged conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran could drive the price of oil to $150 a barrel and plunge the world into a “stark and steep recession.” The remarks come as U.S. military operations against the Islamist regime enter their twenty-fifth day, and amid weeks of energy and financial market volatility.

“Rising energy prices is a very regressive tax. It affects the poor more than the wealthy,” Fink notes, while further cautioning that Iran could force “years above $100, closer to $150 oil, which has profound implications in the economy.” The $150-a-barrel benchmark, according to the BlackRock CEO, is an important line to avoid crossing, as doing so would result in “a probably stark and steep recession.”

I believe that he is wrong.

I believe that if the price of oil reaches 150 dollars a barrel and stays there, it will cause a global depression.

I wish that I was exaggerating, but I am not.

We really have entered one of the most chaotic chapters in human history, and most of the population still has no idea what is in front of us.

The post Lockdown 2.0: The IEA Has Released 10 Guidelines To Help The Public Prepare For The Coming Fuel Shortages And “Energy Lockdowns” appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Is The World Ready For A Global Energy Catastrophe And A Global Food Catastrophe At The Same Time?

Michael — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 19:47:57 +0000

We have reached an unprecedented moment in human history. If this war with Iran continues for an extended period of time, we will be facing the greatest energy disruption in human history and the greatest food production disruption in human history simultaneously. Many were hoping that Iran would agree to the Trump administration’s proposal for a 30 day ceasefire, but it was obvious that was never going to happen. The Iranians have completely rejected Trump’s 15 point plan, and they are demanding that the U.S. must agree to permanent Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz before any negotiations even begin. Needless to say, the U.S. will never agree to that, and so the war will rage on.

For now, Iran is determining which vessels are allowed to travel through the Strait of Hormuz…

Iranian crude tankers continue to pass through the maritime chokepoint — vital to about a third of the world’s seaborne crude oil — along with a few others that Iran has let pass through, said Matt Smith, U.S. head analyst at Kpler.

In a post on X Tuesday, MarineTraffic, which is operated by Kpler, said Iran appears to now be pursuing a strategy in the strait where it allows “selective vessel passage” to provide “strategic signaling,” rather than imposing a full disruption of global crude supply through the waterway.

The post included an animated map of sparse maritime traffic traveling through the waterway. Nine vessels have crossed since Monday, according to MarineTraffic data released early Tuesday.

Several news reports indicate Iran has begun charging vessels up to $2 million to pass through the strait. Smith said Kpler could not confirm reports of such tolls.

Some readers may be tempted to think that it is good news that nine vessels have been able to go through the Strait of Hormuz so far this week.

But approximately 2,500 others remain trapped in the Persian Gulf…

On Tuesday, HormuzTracker, which provides a Strait of Hormuz shipping-disruption dashboard, showed that there are around 2,500 vessels still trapped inside the Persian Gulf, with 400 waiting outside of the strait.

This is truly a nightmare scenario.

Desperately needed supplies of oil and natural gas are not going anywhere for the foreseeable future.

And now Iran is threatening to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as well…

Iran could open a new front in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if attacks are carried out on its territory or islands, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim reported, citing an unnamed military source.

“If the Americans intend to take action regarding the Strait of Hormuz, they should be careful not to add another strait to their challenges … Iran is fully prepared to escalate the situation,” Tasnim quoted the source as saying.

Iran is literally trying to paralyze the entire global economy in order to gain as much leverage as possible.

One energy industry economist is openly admitting that we have never “seen anything like this”…

“We’ve not seen anything like this — there’s been no disruption of this scale in the past,” Gareth Ramsay, chief economist at oil and gas giant BP, told the conference. “It’s every oil analyst’s study piece or worst nightmare — one that we never thought would happen.”

He is right.

This is unprecedented.

And every single day that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted things will get even worse.

Already, the price of diesel has reached all-time record highs in California and Washington…

The announcement, made by GasBuddy Head of Petroleum Analysis Patrick De Haan on Wednesday, comes as gas prices have continued to rise across the U.S. in recent weeks. The national average cost of a gallon of gas was $3.983 on Wednesday, according to AAA, whereas a week ago, it was at $3.842. A month ago, the national average was below $3 per gallon. Diesel prices have also been climbing higher, with two states setting a new all-time record for the price of a gallon of diesel on Wednesday.

“California and Washington have both now set new all-time records for average diesel price,” De Haan posted with an image of a graph that showed diesel prices surging past $7 in California and $6 in Washington.

There are more than 11 million diesel trucks in the United States.

That number represents about 75 percent of the entire commercial truck population.

If the price of diesel reaches 10 dollars a gallon, it will be absolutely devastating for the commercial trucking industry in this country.

Over in Europe, they are facing widespread energy shortages “as soon as next month”…

Europe could face a shortage of energy and fuel as soon as next month without a reopening of the strait of Hormuz, Shell’s chief executive has said.

The boss of Europe’s biggest oil company said it was working with governments to help them address the oil and gas supply crisis, which has already led to energy rationing in Asian countries.

The beginning of next month is just days away.

Will EU politicians start implementing “energy lockdowns” in a desperate attempt to conserve oil and natural gas?

Of course this war isn’t just going to cause a global energy catastrophe.

The spring is when farmers in the northern hemisphere plant their crops, and right now vast quantities of fertilizer are locked up in the Persian Gulf region…

Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are heading into the crucial spring months, during which major fieldwork must begin. Their peers in the south, meanwhile, are busy harvesting crops before the winter sets in.

However, their work now takes place as the Iran war creates serious supply constraints for essential fertilizer products — fueling massive price spikes and warnings of looming food insecurity.

Around one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Nations.

What are we going to do if we can’t get that fertilizer out of the Persian Gulf before planting season is over?

One industry insider is warning that “this could be catastrophic if it lasts long”…

David Delaney, the chief executive officer of phosphate producer Itafos Inc., said he can’t recall a tougher time across his four decades in the industry. After the war broke out, the United Nations warned of record levels of hunger this year. If the conflict continues for even a few more months, tens of millions of people may face severe food insecurity.

“The world is just used to big crop plantings every year and yields and crops getting to where they are needed,” he said. “I don’t want to sound the alarm too much yet, but this could be catastrophic if it lasts long.”

I discussed this in a previous article, but I don’t think that a lot of people out there fully understood that implications of what I shared.

Wheat is an annual crop that is planted every year.

Studies have shown that application of nitrogen fertilizer can increase wheat yields by up to 62 percent.

If we do not get nitrogen fertilizer into the hands of farmers in the northern hemisphere, we are going to have far less wheat in late 2026 and beyond.

Barley is also an annual crop that is planted every year.

Studies have shown that application of nitrogen fertilizer can increase barley yields by up to 25 percent.

For corn, the difference is even greater.

The amount of corn grown on an acre can more than double if nitrogen fertilizer is applied.

Just think about that.

We are talking about a dramatic drop in production.

Of course crops that are not planted annually will not be greatly affected by this fertilizer crisis.

Grape vines can go decades without fertilizer and they will just keep producing year after year.

And some olive trees that have been alive for more than 1,000 years are still bearing plenty of fruit with no problem at all.

The bottom line is that we could see a historic drop in production for annual crops such as wheat and barley, while there may be very little difference for crops that do not have to be planted annually such as grapes and olives.

This is where we are at.

No matter how much some people may want to deny it, the facts will not change.

The only way we can avoid what is ahead is if the war comes to a swift conclusion.

But that is not likely to happen any time soon, and so a lot more pain is on the way.

The post Is The World Ready For A Global Energy Catastrophe And A Global Food Catastrophe At The Same Time? appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Severe Shortages Of Oil And Gas Are Beginning To Happen All Over The World

Michael — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 19:47:43 +0000

Why is the mainstream media in the United States being so quiet about this? All over the globe, very serious shortages of oil and gas are starting to occur. The information that I am about to share with you is extremely alarming. Unfortunately, if this war continues for an extended period of time this will only be just the beginning of this crisis. Even if the war were to end tomorrow, and that is not going to happen, it would take time for the tankers that are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf to reach their destinations. And it would take years to fully repair the damage that has already been done to oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Middle East. Whether we like it or not, we are facing a global energy crisis for the foreseeable future, and that is not good news at all.

What would you do if you went to your local gas station and there was no more gasoline?

In Australia, there are dozens of gas stations that have already run out of at least one grade of gasoline…

The energy minister, Chris Bowen, told federal parliament on Monday that 109 outlets in Victoria had run out of at least one grade of petrol, that there were 47 outlets in Queensland with no diesel and 32 without regular unleaded, and that 37 stations in New South Wales had run out of petrol.

The NSW premier, Chris Minns, had said earlier in the day that 105 outlets in his state were without diesel.

Bowen didn’t share statistics for Western Australia, the Northern Territory, South Australia or Tasmania. He also declined to say exactly when the government became aware of six shipments of oil not making its way to Australia, a fact he revealed on Sunday, only saying it was an “iterative process” and they had not all been cancelled on the same day.

The Australian government is desperately trying to secure additional supplies.

But many other governments all over the planet are doing the exact same thing.

There is going to be a scramble for whatever is available, and prices are going to spike.

In Europe, Slovenia has become the very first member of the EU to impose fuel rationing…

Slovenia has become the first EU member state to implement fuel rationing to tackle disruptions caused by the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and its retaliation on their allies in the Gulf – most major players in world energy markets.

Many countries have been experiencing steep hikes in fuel prices.

In Slovenia, this has resulted in so-called “fuel tourism”, as drivers from neighbouring countries, particularly Austria, take advantage of the lower, regulated prices here.

Under the new measures, private motorists in Slovenia will be restricted to a maximum purchase of 50 litres of fuel per day. Businesses and farmers have a more generous allowance of 200 litres.

Ultimately, a lack of natural gas will be a much bigger problem for Europe.

If this war does not come to a conclusion soon, it will be a very, very cold winter across the continent.

In the Philippines, a national energy emergency was declared on Tuesday…

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines declared a national energy emergency on Tuesday, saying that high oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East were threatening the country’s energy security.

The Philippines imports 90 percent of its oil from the Middle East, making it one of the Asian countries most vulnerable to supply disruptions there. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed by Iran, the Philippines has had to turn to Russia and China, and to other Southeast Asian countries, for fuel.

They should have never allowed themselves to become so dependent on oil from the Middle East.

But there is one upside to all of this.

Government workers in the Philippines will only have to work four days a week for a while…

Many government offices have switched to a four-day workweek to save energy, and Mr. Marcos has called on the public to car pool. The government has also been handing out 5,000 pesos each to tens of thousands of autorickshaw and jeepney drivers around Manila who are suffering from the higher prices.

Mr. Marcos is under intense pressure to deal with the situation. A coalition of transportation workers has called for mass protests around Manila, the capital, on Thursday and Friday about the price spike and what they consider inadequate measures by the government. On Tuesday, the Philippine Daily Inquirer, a major newspaper, published a column with the headline, “Nation on brink: This oil crisis may destroy everything we built.”

We have never faced a global energy crisis of this magnitude, and there is already talk that we could soon see “lockdowns” all over the world like we witnessed during the last pandemic.

In fact, authorities in one province of Pakistan are already considering “enforcing a smart lockdown” due to a lack of oil…

Sindh authorities are considering enforcing a smart lockdown as part of efforts to reduce fuel consumption, according to Local Government Minister Nasir Hussain Shah. The move comes in response to disruptions in global oil supply linked to tensions in the Middle East.

Speaking in Sukkur, Shah described the current situation as far from ordinary, warning that prolonged conflict could create widespread challenges. He stressed the need for unconventional measures to manage the evolving crisis.

As part of ongoing steps to ease pressure on resources, the provincial government has already cut petrol allocations for official vehicles by 60 percent. The minister added that daily reviews are being conducted to monitor developments and adjust policies accordingly.

This war has only been going on for a few weeks.

What will things look like if the war lasts for a few months?

In India, we are starting to see gas lines that are reminiscent of what we experienced in the 1970s…

By late Monday night, the first signs of unease began to surface at a quiet petrol pump along Ramanthapur main road. On most evenings, the station serves a handful of customers at a time. That night, however, the trickle turned into a stream. Within minutes, motorcycles began clustering near the dispensers, autos lined up in a row, and cars spilled out on to the main road.

If you need to fill up your vehicle, I would do it now.

Gasoline prices are only going to go higher from here.

And supplies of natural gas are only going to get tighter and tighter.

QatarEnergy just sent shockwaves all over the planet when it announced that it was declaring force majeure on long-term natural gas contracts with China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium…

QatarEnergy declared force majeure on long-term LNG supply contracts with South Korea, China, and other countries on the 24th. A force majeure declaration is a notification of circumstances beyond control, such as war or natural disasters, that prevent normal contract fulfillment, allowing the party to avoid legal liabilities like compensation.

According to Reuters on the same day, the countries subject to QatarEnergy’s force majeure declaration included South Korea, along with China, Italy, and Belgium.

This declaration follows massive damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG production hub during Iranian airstrikes on the 18th–19th.

The global natural gas disruption that we are witnessing is the largest in all of human history by a very wide margin.

Since natural gas is so important to fertilizer production, we are also facing an unprecedented fertilizer disruption.

And Russia just made it even worse by temporarily suspending ammonium nitrate exports…

The fertilizer crisis appears to be worsening just as the Northern Hemisphere planting season, in some areas, is about to begin, with top ammonium nitrate supplier Russia announcing on Tuesday via state media that exports of the critical crop nutrient will be halted.

Russia’s state-run news agency TASS said Russia will suspend ammonium nitrate exports from March 21 through April 21. The report cited a statement from the Agriculture Ministry.

The temporary restriction is intended to secure domestic fertilizer supplies during the spring planting season. Exports made under intergovernmental agreements are exempt.

Russia is the world’s largest producer of ammonium nitrate. In 2024, the country produced about 12 million tons, roughly 47% of the global output of the plant nutrient. It was also the largest exporter at about 2.7 million tons, around 37% of global export volume and 40% of export value.

As I have discussed in previous articles, there simply is not going to be enough fertilizer to go around, and global food production will be way down this year as a result.

Right now, we are still eating food that was produced last year.

Six to nine months from now, global supplies of food will start getting really tight and prices will soar.

So if you need to stock up, now is the time.

Hopefully this war will end soon.

But I don’t think that it will, and that means that things will soon get far crazier than they are now.

The post Severe Shortages Of Oil And Gas Are Beginning To Happen All Over The World appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Has A Global Catastrophe Been Averted, Or Is This Just A Very Temporary Reprieve?

Michael — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 20:12:00 +0000

For the moment, we have avoided a global economic cataclysm. President Trump was threatening to completely destroy Iran’s power grid if the Iranians did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and in response the Iranians were threatening to destroy oil and gas infrastructure all over the Middle East. Once that infrastructure is gone it would have to be replaced, and that would take years. Meanwhile, the entire world would be forced to endure the worst energy crisis in human history and the economic fallout would be intolerable. The good news is that President Trump has announced that he will not be attacking Iran’s power grid for at least five days. I think that once Iran released the list of oil and gas facilities that would be targeted if their power grid got destroyed, Trump decided to reconsider his plans…

Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Mehr news wrote: “In case of the slightest attack on the electricity infrastructure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the entire region will go dark.” Here’s the target list it shared:

Saudi Arabia

The Village (near Al-Khobar): gas power plant (4,000+ MW)

Ras Tanura (Sharqiya Province): major oil and gas facility / power infrastructure

United Arab Emirates

Barakah (Al Dhafra, Abu Dhabi): nuclear power plant (~5,600 MW)

Jebel Ali (South Dubai): gas power and desalination complex (multi-GW capacity)

Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park (Dubai): large-scale solar power project

Qatar

Ras Laffan (north Qatar): gas power plant (one of the largest in Qatar)

Umm Al Houl (south of Doha): gas power + desalination plant (multi-GW capacity)

Kuwait

Al-Zour South: oil and gas power plant

Al-Zour North: combined-cycle power plant (multi-GW capacity)

Shaqaya Energy Park (west Kuwait): solar and wind renewable energy complex

Please note that the Ras Laffan natural gas complex in Qatar is on that list.

It normally produces approximately 20 percent of the world’s entire supply of liquified natural gas.

17 percent of that facility has already been destroyed, but if the rest of it gets wiped out that alone would be enough to plunge the globe into an economic death spiral that would last for years.

I am sure that Qatar and the other Gulf countries have been screaming at Trump to pull back before it is too late.

Another reason why Trump could not attack Iranian power plants right now is because pro-regime civilians have started to form “human chains” around some of them…

Civilians in Ahvaz and Mashhad formed human chains around major power plants on Monday, according to footage published by the state‑run Fars news agency on Telegram. The videos show residents standing shoulder‑to‑shoulder outside the Ramin power plant in Ahvaz, many holding Iranian flags, while similar crowds gathered near a facility in Mashhad.

Images of U.S. bombs blowing up women and children would have absolutely horrified people all over the planet.

So there was no way that Trump could make good on his threats.

On Monday morning, Trump told the world that any attacks on the Iranian power grid have been delayed for at least five days…

It would be wonderful if “productive conversations” were taking place.

Let us hope that is the truth.

But the Iranians are completely denying that any conversations are taking place, and they are celebrating that Trump has “backed down”…

Shortly after US President Donald Trump announced that he is deferring “any and all” strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure on productive resolution talks, Iranian media reports denied any ‘direct’ or ‘intermediary’ communication with him.

“Trump, fearing Iran’s response, backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum,” Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting said in a post on X.

Ebrahim Rezaei, Spokesperson of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission reiterated the claims and said, “Trump and America have backed down again. The field is still charging forward. Another defeat for the devil,” in a post on X.

Each side is telling a completely different story.

So what is the truth?

It is being widely reported in the western media that the individual that the Trump administration is communicating with is Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf, but he is strongly denying this…

Multiple news outlets reported in the past hour that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had been engaged in negotiations with Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament. But an X account attributed to Ghalibaf swiftly rejected those claims, saying no discussions with the United States had taken place.

The post accused unnamed actors of spreading “fake news” to manipulate global oil markets and insisted that the Iranian public “demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors.”

Personally, I don’t know how Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf could have been much clearer.

And Iran’s Foreign Ministry is also telling us that there have been no negotiations…

Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied on Monday any direct negotiations with U.S. officials, but said “friendly countries” had conveyed messages from Washington seeking negotiations.

“In recent days, messages were delivered through certain friendly countries indicating that the U.S. sought negotiations to end the war. These messages were appropriately addressed in line with our country’s principled positions,” Esmail Baqaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, told the country’s state news agency IRNA on Monday. “In our responses, we issued firm warnings about the severe consequences of any attack on Iran’s critical infrastructure, emphasizing that any action against Iran’s energy facilities would be met with a decisive, immediate, and effective response from our armed forces.”

Maybe the Iranians are simply choosing not to tell the truth.

Needless to say, they don’t exactly have a strong track record for veracity.

Despite Iran’s denials, Trump continues to insist that there have been “very, very strong talks”…

“Well they’re going to have to get themselves better public relations people,” Mr. Trump said. “We have had very, very strong talks. We’ll see where they lead. We have points, major points of agreement, I would say almost all points of agreement. Perhaps that hasn’t been conveyed. The communication, as you know, has been blown to pieces.”

The president would not say who his administration is speaking to in Iran, only saying it was a “top” person but not the supreme leader. Mr. Trump added that Iran contacted the U.S., saying, “So they called, I didn’t call. They called. They want to make a deal.”

Ultimately, I don’t think that any of this is going anywhere.

As I write this article, missiles continue to fly all over the Middle East.

The Iranians just launched more attacks, and the Israelis continue to pummel targets in Iranian territory.

And thousands of U.S. Marines continue to sail toward the Middle East…

There has been no change in plans to send thousands more Marines and sailors to the Middle East, military sources told CBS News.

A second Marine Expeditionary Unit of about 2,200 Marines and three warships departed California last week, two U.S. officials previously said. It could take at least three weeks to be in place, although maybe more than that.

The first Marine Expeditionary Unit, coming from the Pacific, is still making its way toward the region.

In addition to the Marine units that are on the way, it is also being reported that elements of the 82nd Airborne Division could soon be sent to the Middle East…

Senior military officials are weighing a possible deployment of a combat brigade from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division and some elements of the division’s headquarters staff to support U.S. military operations in Iran, defense officials said.

I think that Trump is really hoping that Iran will give him the sort of deal that he is seeking.

But that isn’t going to happen.

And Trump can’t pull the U.S. out of the war as long as Iran is preventing commercial ships from traveling through the Strait of Hormuz and as long as Iran is hitting targets all over the Middle East with drones and missiles.

The Iranians feel like they have control over when this war will end, and so they are making all sorts of extremely outrageous demands that the U.S. and Israel can never possibly accept. They actually want all U.S. forces in the Middle East to be completely removed, they want to continue enriching uranium, and they want the U.S. and Israel to fully pay for all the damage that their bombing has caused.

Needless to say, the U.S. and Israel will never agree to any of that.

So I think that this war is going to continue for quite some time, and I also think that more escalations are inevitable.

And that is really bad news for the global economy, because this war has already had “a worse impact on oil than the two oil shocks of the 1970s combined”…

The head of the International Energy Agency said Monday that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war.

“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction,” Fatih Birol said at Australia’s National Press Club in Canberra on Monday.

The crisis in the Middle ⁠East, he said, has had a worse impact on oil than the two oil shocks of the 1970s combined, and a worse effect on gas than the Russia-Ukraine war.

We should all be thankful that a nightmare scenario has been avoided for the time being.

But it appears that this is just a very temporary reprieve.

The Iranians will never give Trump what he wants, and the U.S. and Israel will never give the Iranians what they are seeking.

The two sides are not even in the same universe as far as what a peace deal should look like, and that means that a lot more fighting is still ahead.

The post Has A Global Catastrophe Been Averted, Or Is This Just A Very Temporary Reprieve? appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Apocalypse Rising: We Have Reached A Moment In Human History That Could Change Everything

Michael — Sun, 22 Mar 2026 21:48:38 +0000

After this week is over, there may be no turning back. President Trump is literally threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power grid, and the Iranians cannot do a thing to prevent that from happening. But in response, the Iranians are threatening to destroy oil and gas infrastructure all over the Persian Gulf. The Iranians have already destroyed 17 percent of Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas complex, and if they destroy the remaining 83 percent of that facility it will immediately plunge us into the greatest natural gas crisis in human history by a very wide margin. There would be widespread natural gas shortages, fertilizer plants all over the world would be forced to shut down, and hunger would run rampant. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s entire supply of liquified natural gas comes from Ras Laffan, and it will take 3 to 5 years to rebuild the portions of the complex that have already been destroyed. If the rest of the complex gets destroyed by Iran, it will be a cataclysmic event. When I say that, I am not exaggerating one bit. We really have reached a moment in human history that could change everything.

It all depends on what Donald Trump does next.

On Saturday, Trump gave the Iranians an ominous ultimatum.

Either they fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or the U.S. military will destroy their power grid…

For reasons that I have discussed in previous articles, the Iranians are not going to give Donald Trump what he wants.

It just isn’t going to happen.

Instead of giving in to Trump’s demands, the Iranians are threatening to attack energy infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf, and they are pledging to completely close the Strait of Hormuz…

In a response to Trump’s statements, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which is the central headquarters of the Iranian armed forces, said that it will fully close the Strait of Hormuz if “America’s threats regarding Iran’s power plants are implemented.”

Iran also warned that it would start targeting “all power plants, energy infrastructure, and information technology,” while any company in the region with American shareholders would also become a target.

Finally, Iran threatened to attack the power plants of any country in the region hosting American military bases.

“Everything is ready for a great jihad with the aim of completely destroying all economic interests of America in the Middle East,” the statement said.

So what happens if the Iranians wipe out Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas complex and other extremely critical energy production facilities in other Gulf countries?

What would Trump’s next move be then?

Would he send in U.S. ground troops?

CBS News is already reporting that U.S. officials have “made detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground forces into Iran”…

Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground forces into Iran, multiple sources briefed on the discussions told CBS News.

Senior military commanders have submitted specific requests aimed at preparing for such an option as President Trump weighs moves in the U.S.-Israel-led conflict with Iran, the sources said.

The most likely target for U.S. ground troops would be Kharg Island, and the Iranians are promising that we will “suffer losses that are unprecedented since World War II” if Trump tries to do that…

An Iranian military source warned that new U.S. strikes or an invasion of Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, could prompt Tehran to escalate by threatening nearby waterways, including the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, telling the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Tasnim News Agency the United States would face an “unprecedented” response.

On a potential U.S. invasion of the island, the official warned that American troops would struggle to defend it and would “suffer losses that are unprecedented since World War II.”

How far up the escalation ladder are we willing to go?

It sounds like Israel is ready to raise the stakes as well.

The Iranians have been hitting Israeli population centers with cluster munitions, and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz is warning that if this continues his nation will “hit Iran so hard it will be sent back decades”…

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would send Iran “back decades” if it continues targeting cities, accusing Tehran of deliberately firing on civilian population centers.

“If this continues, we’ll be sure to hit Iran so hard it will be sent back decades,” Katz said while visiting the site of a missile strike in Arad that injured scores.

If the U.S. and Israel push Iran to the wall, will the Iranians unleash any unconventional weapons that they have been holding in reserve?

In such a scenario, how would the U.S. and Israel react?

We are only a couple of steps away from an apocalyptic scenario.

Already, the damage that this war has done has set the global economy back for years.

The price of oil is causing major problems all over the globe, and experts are warning that we could eventually see it reach $200 a barrel…

Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis firm Vanda Insights, warned: “Benchmark Middle Eastern crudes like Oman and Dubai have already crossed the $150 threshold, so $200 is already within sight, even if not for Brent and West Texas Intermediate.”

Analysts at consultancy Wood Mackenzie have also said Brent could soon hit $150 and that $200 oil is not “outside the realms of possibility” in 2026.

If this war stretches on for an extended period of time, the pain that we will experience is going to be immense.

I am already hearing of diesel shortages in some parts of the world, and United Airlines has already canceled approximately 5 percent of this year’s planned flights…

United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott ‌Kirby said on ‌Friday the airline will cancel about 5% of this year’s planned flights in the short ‌term, as ⁠jet fuel prices surge due to ⁠the Middle East conflict.

“If prices stayed at this level, it would mean ‌an extra $11 billion in annual expense just for jet fuel,” Kirby said in a ‌message to employees posted on its website.

Of course the natural gas crisis that we are facing could potentially be even worse.

If this war lasts for a number of months, we could literally have to deal with “a full-blown economic emergency across Europe, the UK and large parts of Asia”…

Bank of America has warned European gas prices could surge from around €29 to as high as €500 this winter if the strait stays shut for an extended period, far exceeding levels seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Such a spike would trigger what analysts describe as a full-blown economic emergency across Europe, the UK and large parts of Asia, with energy costs spiralling and industries forced to cut back, The Telegraph reports

Needless to say, natural gas is also a primary raw material that is used in the production of nitrogen fertilizer.

Normally, close to a third of all fertilizer that is traded globally travels through the Strait of Hormuz…

About a third of all fertilizer shipped globally goes through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Now, shipping traffic has been reduced to a trickle because of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and the prices of goods like oil, natural gas, and fertilizer have been rising.

“Fertilizer prices are way up. They’re up around 30 percent more in some parts of the world, and that’s significant,” says Noah Gordon, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran are big global producers of fertilizer, and they export the raw ingredients other countries use to make their own fertilizers, like natural gas and minerals.

But that is only part of the story.

Because they are not able to get liquified natural gas from the Persian Gulf right now, fertilizer plants in other parts of the globe are being forced to close down…

The Carnegie Endowment noted fertilizer production in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan has shut down because those countries cannot get natural gas from Qatar, and Egypt, another producer, has had to turn to the more expensive LNG market because its supplies from Israel have been disrupted.

This is planting season for farmers all over the northern hemisphere.

In many poorer countries, there simply won’t be enough fertilizer this year.

In wealthier countries, fertilizer will be available, but it will cost far more than it usually does…

Tennessee farmer Todd Littleton expects to pay $100,000 more for fertilizer this season, a 40% spike from his bill last year thanks to the war in Iran — and he is scrambling to cover that extra cost.

“The problem is, is we’re so strained financially coming into this issue,” said Littleton, a third-generation farmer from Gibson County in the state’s northwest corner. “We have had a couple of record losses the last couple years, so everyone’s kind of grabbing at straws anyway, and then to have input prices increase yet again, it just really couldn’t happen at a worse time.”

Littleton, who grows corn, soybeans and wheat, is among thousands of farmers across the country who will pay far more this spring than they expected for fertilizer that is essential to their crops. Nitrogen-based fertilizer is especially vital for corn, usually the largest crop in the U.S. — and one that feeds the nation’s livestock and is converted into fuel that helps power most U.S. cars and trucks.

The crops that will be primarily affected by this fertilizer crisis will be those that are planted annually.

This is such an important point.

For example, nitrogen fertilizer is widely used by wheat farmers to maximize yield, improve grain quality, and promote healthy growth. A lack of fertilizer will mean that less wheat will be grown around the world in 2026 and prices will soar.

Barley is another example of an annual crop that is heavily dependent on nitrogen fertilizer because it promotes leaf and stem development, significantly affecting both yield and crop quality. By the end of this year, barley prices are likely to be far higher than they are now.

On the other hand, crops that do not have to be planted annually will fare much better.

Grape vines can live for 50 to 100 years, and they will just keep producing year after year.

Olive trees commonly live for hundreds of years, and some can even survive for more than 1,000 years. Incredibly, there are examples of olive trees that have been around for more than a millennium that are still bearing fruit.

What I am saying is that annual crops like wheat and barley could be absolutely devastated by this current crisis, while crops that do not have to be planted annually such as grapes and olives will not experience much disruption.

So much is going to depend on what happens this week.

Decisions that are being made right now are going to deeply affect every single one of us, and so let us hope that our leaders make their decisions wisely.

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We Really Are Facing An “Economic Armageddon” Scenario In The Middle East

Michael — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 20:56:56 +0000

When this war with Iran erupted, everyone knew that it would have an impact on the global economy. But very few anticipated that it would be this bad. We are facing the worst oil disruption in history, the worst natural gas disruption in history, the worst helium disruption in history and the worst fertilizer disruption in history simultaneously. The Iranians have control over which ships are allowed through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are determined to keep it that way for as long as possible. But even if the war ended and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was fully restored tomorrow, it would take years for the global economy to return to normal because of all the energy infrastructure that has been destroyed on both sides.

With no end in sight for the war, oil prices in the western world just continue to move higher.

But if you want to see where oil prices are eventually headed if this crisis persists, just check out what has been happening in Dubai.

At one point on Thursday, the price of oil in Dubai briefly hit an all-time record of $166 a barrel…

The extreme spike in oil prices seen in local markets in the Middle East could give investors a glimpse into to where U.S. and Europe prices are headed if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened soon.

Dubai crude oil prices surpassed $166 a barrel to a new record high on Thursday, according to market data provider Platts. Dated Brent and West Texas intermediate Cushing’s are trading around the $100 mark after historic runs higher.

Normally, the price of oil in Dubai falls somewhere between West Texas oil and Brent oil.

But once the war began, it started selling at an unprecedented premium.

In Saudi Arabia, officials are projecting that the price of oil could eventually surpass $180 a barrel if this war persists until the end of next month…

Saudi Arabia’s oil officials are working frantically to project how high oil prices might go if the Iran war and its disruption of energy supplies doesn’t end soon-and they don’t like what they are seeing.

The base case, several oil officials in the Gulf’s biggest producer said, is that prices could soar past $180 a barrel if the disruptions persist until late April.

While that would sound like a bonanza for a kingdom still heavily leveraged to oil revenue, it is deeply concerning. Prices that high could push consumers into habits that slash their oil use-potentially for the long term-or trigger a recession that also hurts demand. They also would risk casting Saudi Arabia in the role of profiteer in a war it didn’t start.

If the price of oil reaches that level and stays there for an extended period of time, it will crash everything.

Our system is simply not designed to be able to handle a shock like that.

Of course we are also facing a historic natural gas crisis as well.

Normally, approximately one-fifth of the world’s supply of liquified natural gas is produced by Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex.

That complex is nearly three times the size of Paris, and it cost hundreds of billions of dollars to build.

So it was a really, really big deal when Iranian missiles started raining down.

The CEO of QatarEnergy is telling us that output at the complex has been reduced by 17 percent, and it will take three to five years to rebuild the capacity that has been lost…

Qatar could face years of reduced natural gas exports after Iranian strikes damaged key energy infrastructure, wiping out a significant share of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity, QatarEnergy’s chief executive told Reuters.

Saad al-Kaabi said the attacks disabled two LNG production units out of 14 and one gas-to-liquids facility out of two, reducing output by about 17% at a time when Qatar sits at the heart of global gas supply.

He said the affected facilities alone account for roughly 12.8 million tonnes of annual LNG production, and warned repairs could keep them offline for three to five years depending on security conditions and technical recovery timelines.

This is a catastrophic blow for the global economy.

As Jack Prandelli has accurately observed, there is no spare capacity elsewhere on the planet that can replace what has been destroyed…

So what do we do now?

It is going to take years to repair the damage that has already been done.

And what is going to happen if Iran attacks Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex again?

Meanwhile, the world is also facing a looming helium shortage.

Prior to the war, Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex produced over one-third of the world’s entire supply of helium…

The war in the Middle East could pose a threat to the semiconductor industry and other sectors dependent on a resource produced in the Gulf — helium.

Helium is a little-known but key input in many industries, most notably technology. In semiconductor manufacturing, its cooling properties are used to transfer heat. Helium is also indispensable in photolithography, a technique used to print each chip’s intricate circuitry.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that before the war Qatar produced more than one-third of the world’s helium supply. Lately, however, operations at QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan Industrial City — the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility, which produces helium as a byproduct — were halted after it was struck by an Iranian drone early in the war. On Wednesday, Iranian missiles crippled the plant.

Without that helium, tech companies all over the planet are going to be thrown into a state of chaos.

So that is a huge problem.

But personally I am even more concerned about what this war is going to mean for global food production.

Farmers all over the northern hemisphere are preparing to plant their crops, and so if we can’t get the fertilizer that they need through the Strait of Hormuz we are going to be in for a world of hurt…

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical channel for fertilizer, including about 50% of global nitrogen-rich urea fertilizers, according to the Fertilizer Institute, the industry’s trade association. The strait has been effectively impassable since President Donald Trump launched the assault, which is now in its third week with no end in sight.

The closure has spiked fertilizer prices just before planting season, potentially scrambling decision-making for farmers across the U.S. And it comes on top of already low commodity prices that have lingered for years and eaten into farmers’ margins.

There will be a wild scramble for whatever is available, and those with the most money will be victorious.

But since western farmers will be paying much, much more for fertilizer this year, they will be forced to pass those costs along…

“We’re in uncharted territory,” Matt Frostic, a Michigan farmer who sits on the board of the National Corn Growers Association, said in an interview with CNBC. “It’s like a code red.”

Frostic said he purchased nitrogen fertilizer, critical for corn crops, in January for around $350 per ton. That same product, he said, is now closing in on $600 per ton.

Of course large numbers of farmers in poorer nations won’t have access to nitrogen fertilizer at all.

As a result, global food production will be way down and there simply won’t be enough food for everyone.

So we really need traffic to start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz like it normally does.

But that is not going to happen any time soon.

I think that we are about to see a lot of chaos erupt in global financial markets.

Already, we are witnessing a confluence of developments that we haven’t seen since 2008…

Thursday’s bond-market selloff caused the Treasury yield curve to exhibit what traders describe as a “bear-flattening” pattern. This actually began back in early February. Typically, the pattern emerges when bond traders are bracing for a difficult economic environment ahead.

The confluence of these three developments — oil above $100 a barrel, a 2-year yield above the fed funds rate, and a bear-steepening dynamic in the bond market — is making some investors nervous.

The last time all three things unfolded simultaneously was in the late spring of 2008, according to Bloomberg data. About four or five months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed, ushering in the most acute phase of the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 declined 38.5% that year. Widespread mortgage defaults also resulted in many Americans losing their homes.

Hold on tight, because if this war doesn’t come to a conclusion soon this is only just the beginning.

The Iranians are trying to inflict so much pain on the rest of the world that the U.S. and Israel will be forced to agree to never attack Iran again.

On the other side, the U.S. and Israel are absolutely determined to win this war, and they would love to bring the regime in Iran to an end.

So I think that this war is going to go on for a while.

If it lasts into the summer, we really will be facing an economic “Armageddon scenario”, and that is not good news for any of us.

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