What I wanted to do today was catch up with some of my current thought on the overall industry and where it is going. Lets start with Municipal Wireless. Probably no major broadband wireless industry initiative has become high profile and bust in near record time the way Muni Wireless has. Arguably, EarthLink both launched the industry and perhaps recently sounded its death knell by transferring the first of its five operations to the local city governments for free. The whole industry just got mired down by its bad business plans. And for their part the cities just wanted to get on the gravy train of getting something for free. I actually thought the industry had more legs than this, and that while it was the current bandwagon it could evolve into something useful. But nobody (much) found a business model that worked. And the result was chaos and loss. I suppose that my old WISP instincts about knowing where revenue was coming from for every major expense should have given me a better clue. I will listen to my gut better next time.

So where goes WiMAX in the US. Sprint and Clearwire are still in a holding pattern. I am hopeful that something good could come out of that if the companies and their investors can pump enough cash into some joint venture to get it started. Barry West recently said that ramping up WiMAX has been a lot harder than expected. I wonder if the bootstrap to real 4G will be that way for everybody. After all LTE technology is pretty close to WiMAX anyway. Hmmm? Meanwhile, smaller regional companies with licensed spectrum are moving on with WiMAX or precursor fixed/portable plays reasoning that those are strong enough to get customers—and they are. WiMAX needs some mobile certified gear as soon as possible.

The big 700 MHz auction was largely about the rich getting richer. For all its cheerleading Google did not succeed in forcing the C-block to be open to any operator and so Verizon ended up controlling it. AT&T was the other big winner. Some smaller regional plays got spectrum. As usual there is still a dearth of spectrum for small companies around the US who might deploy quickly if they could get some. Our public spectrum policy still leaves a lot to be desired. Sure this 700 spectrum has a four year build out requirement (once the spectrum is cleared by broadcasters), but when did industry giants NOT get an extension on such things—really?

So what is everybody else to do? I think the new 3.65 GHz spectrum offers huge opportunity for smaller independents. Three companies, Redline, Airspan and Alvarion have gear for the band, which is all WiMAX-based but obviously not really WiMAX as there is no product profile for this spectrum range. Interestingly, Alvarion's gear seems to be 802.16e based versus the others 802.16d based. I was surprised at that. In any event, minus the exclusion zone issues, you can deploy anywhere you want by just applying for a national license (takes 15 minutes I am told) and less than $250. Then you just register your base stations. This band will gain converts quickly if the gear works well.

I just completed putting together the Tower Technology Summit at CTIA for Light Reading. That was fun and got good reviews plus strong attendance. The Tower Industry is very healthy right now and will continue to be I think.

What else? There is plenty but this blog is already too long. Stay tuned for more.

Tim Sanders

tim@thefinalmile.net   www.thefinalmile.net   www.wimaxglobalnews.com

However, in speaking to Sprint just yesterday I got the sense that the company has excitement about what this collaboration can do for them. They pointed out that WiMAX will offer a lot of opportunities for new revenue streams that did not exist before combined with significant cost savings over 3G deployments.

The details are that the two companies will trade some spectrum, pick out areas to deploy in and begin deployments independently, while offering customers a cross-roaming functionality AND develop a combined CDMA/WiMAX service that really manages the downside in case WiMAX doesn't pan out. The two companies plan to jointly cover 100 million customers by the end of next year, which is about what Sprint initially planned to deploy alone. So some detractors may pick at this because of that. For my part, I think there are more net positives for the industry and consumers that this is a minor issue. Deploying to anything close 100 million consumers is a gargantuan task. If involving Clearwire can get that done faster all the better. Ultimately Sprint intends to deploy to about 185 million consumers and Clearwire will pass about 115 million. Neither goal will be simple to accomplish.

I feel this will quiet restive investors on both sides for the companies and maybe allay fears of the expense of deploying a network of this scale. The cost factor seems to have a lot of both pundits and detractors who feel it will cost more. But I can't help but wonder if some analysts are looking at more traditional 3G cost models when parsing the information they are getting. In any event, I think this will answer a lot of Wall Street questions. I also think it will measurably speed the deployment of both networks especially as we move into 2008.

All well and good, but what does it mean for the industry? I see several positives. Getting deployments started will be a watershed (certainly Clearwire already is heavily engaged in this). But having Sprint actually begin deployments will be a bellwether moment. It ups the visibility for everybody. Also, I suspect that more institutional money, and investment money in general, will be drawn into the BWA marketplace as a whole. This type of rising tide could lift all boats. And make no mistake there is still tremendous opportunity for smaller carriers to make a mark in this space. To learn more about this and who some of those carriers are, stay tuned for my WiMAX report in September where we will reveal what we have found.

Ultimately, I view this collaboration as a positive step for the industry as a whole.

tim@thefinalmile.net   www.thefinalmile.net   www.wimaxglobalnews.com

This band is potentially very important, with a solid block of spectrum (50 MHz) that would carry even more bandwidth per MHz than the 2.5 GHz range. It also boasts a mid-range blend of power allotment (higher than unlicensed spectrum and lower than licensed spectrum) that has a lot of utility, especially for rural providers. Specifically, this is 25 watts per 25 MHz of spectrum for fixed/portable use and 1 watt per 25 MHz of spectrum for mobile use (a much lower power allotment – likely indicating a more commonly fixed/portable approach in the band early on). Non Line of Sight (NLOS) service at modest ranges should be possible with this power allotment.

This would free smaller companies in many locales from competing in a hugely expensive licensed spectrum auction. It should significantly help the deployment of broadband access in underserved areas, at least once equipment is available. Several operators have written me that they are already asking their providers when gear will be available.

What the FCC did was to redefine the contention protocol to include two main sub-classes. These fall into "unrestricted" and "restricted." Unrestricted gear could be used across all 50 MHz, and restricted gear could be used only in the lower 25 MHz of the band. WiMAX falls into the restricted category. An example of an unrestricted protocol would be the CSMA/CA (carrier sense multiple access / collision avoidance) approach that Wi-Fi currently uses. This is very similar to the typical Ethernet computer network method, whereby each device is constantly talking and looking for an opportunity to transmit. Although the polling methods used by WiMAX are much more efficient, they only work within the context of WiMAX-to-WiMAX gear (at least at this time – some vendors are working on protocols that could be extended across both definitions). Thus, the restriction to the lower 25 MHz is designed to prevent WiMAX gear from interfering with unrestricted protocols in the upper 25 MHz.

Certainly other unrestricted contention-avoidance protocols are in development for the 3.65 GHz spectrum. However, the FCC wanted to speed the deployment of currently-available gear to the market for the 3.65 GHz range, specifically the retuning and use of currently available 802.16d fixed WiMAX radios. These are already being shipped internationally for the 3.5 GHz licensed spectrum range, for which 802.16e mobile WiMAX technology should ultimately be deployed also. Shifting to this new frequency will be relatively trivial for vendors.

The FCC declared the entire 50 MHz of spectrum available to be served by unrestricted-type gear, perhaps in part because unrestricted systems would not interfere with the WiMAX or restricted-protocol systems in the bottom 25 MHz, as they incorporate some type of “Listen Before Transmit” approach. However, the restricted systems would probably interfere with the unrestricted ones. So in my view, the FCC essentially segmented the band into WiMAX (or WiMAX-type gear) and Others.

Is this a good thing? Yes, especially in terms of time-to-market. Also, there were few, if any, gear types that were ready for the unrestricted protocol previously defined. This is a huge WiMAX win. We could potentially have gear certified by the FCC for this band next year.

tim@thefinalmile.net   www.thefinalmile.net   www.wimaxglobalnews.com

Also of special note they are interested in selling their domains www.wimaxmobile.com and www.wimaxfast.com. You can call me (828-505-0702) for details or for an introduction. The company plans a short three-step auction near the end of this month if no one buys the domains outright. They could be sold separately. To register for the auction simply go to www.wimaxmobile.com and follow the directions or I can make a personal introduction for you. I promised Rodney I would help him try to sell these in the US.

But in the meantime, enjoy the podcast, it is a good long one and full of lots of fascinating tidbits about the New Zealand marketplace. Have a great Day.

Tim Sanders

tim@thefinalmile.net  www.thefinalmile.net   www.wimaxglobalnews.com

The site also features a calendar with my speaking engagements or show attendance or important events. I have secured permission from CMP media to reprint some articles I did with them last year that were not posted on the web. Thank you CMP. Other features include the occasional poll, a whole series of RSS linked news feeds (where RSS was available) including WiMax.com, Trendsmedia, ISP-Planet, BBWExchange.com and Wi-Fi Planet. I have all of my online articles up to date on the site. Plus links to two free Webinars I have done. I added the capability for people to contact me me via phone for a low per minute rate to ask the occasional in-depth question without having to retain a consultant. I hope you use it often.

There is more to discover so please enjoy the new site. Are there any features you would like to see that I missed?

Tim Sanders

tim@thefinalmile.net   www.thefinalmile.net   www.wimaxglobalnews.com 

I discussed the Sprint decision to use WiMax for its 2.5 GHz spectrum, the AT&T/BellSouth merger, the AWS Spectrum auction, a few thoughts on the business case for Municipal Broadband, industry consolidation and more. I am very pleased to be back podcasting and hope to do so much more regularly this year. I see challenges in that as I am currently the busiest I have ever been which, while good, is a real challenge.

Enjoy the show,

Tim Sanders

www.thefinalmile.net   www.wimaxglobalnews.com   tim@thefinalmile.net

Why? I think that answer is easy and is survival. As firms like Clearwire vigorously begin to enter the broadband wireless marketplace along with the steady growth of wireline and 3G cellular service, companies need economies of scale and new markets to grow.

I am also seeing a really welcome trend towards shifting more towards a B2B sales model by the independents. Companies like TowerStream and, as we saw last year, NextWeb have been rewarded for their lucrative B2B models (NextWeb selling to Covad).

In the coming year I think we should expect to continue to see WiMax shift more and more strongly towards the 802.16e Mobile version of the technology. Even for the vendors promoting the fixed WiMax version of the technology, most have strategies alreadyi place to migrate customers towards Mobile WiMax.

One big question for all of us is whether or not Sprint will be able to meet its very aggressive deployment plans which include launching WiMax service towards the end of this year.

I do think that municipal wireless will be certainly one if not the major growth segment for the whole broadband wireless marketplace. No bad thing. I would expect to see more targeted niche markets being addressed in that space—perhaps built around advertising schemes. I am very skeptical with advertising as a primary revenue driver, but in the right niche, with the right demographic, it could work….well maybe.

My new website is up. I am updating article links and adding older WiMax Global News Scripts as quickly as I can (for Non Native English speakers who have requested those).

Expect to see my newsletter soon. And WiMax Global News resumes THIS WEEK! I hope you will listen in.

Tim Sanders  tim@thefinalmile.net  www.thefinalmile.net  www.wimaxglobalnews.com

But will it be a success? I think the jury is out on that. Certainly, putting up municipal networks is going ahead full steam. But I think there are two potential pitfalls that everyone will need to address long term for the continued viability of the muni movement. One is self-interference as customer load grows. Another is the viability and sustainainability of the business case for carriers.

I believe the industry is, perhaps surprisingly, better positioned to address the issues of self-interference than the second question. A good network plan can obviate a lot of self-interference issues and there are numerous tricks carriers can use if they can obtain sufficient numbers of relay sites, from reducing power to channelization techniques to some of the new obviating technologies being talked about by vendors. This is just my opinion of course. Clearly, in the long haul this is a major concern. We are starting to see the advent of some dual WiMax backhaul/Wi-Fi at the edge muni solutions. This is welcome. Also expect to see some niche plays that focus on aspects of municipal (some confidences have to be kept here).

On the business case front, I actually see this as a bigger intrinsic issue as regards long-term viability. I am personally not a big fan of the advertising model as the primary revenue driver for a municipal offering. I think it is pertinent as perhaps a tertiary portion of the revenue plan, after municipal anchor tenants (for public safety purposes, etc.) and subscription systems. My biggest concern is that ubiquitous coverage for municicipal networks is the maximum most expensive way to deploy fixed wireless. And a pure or primary advertising supported model will almost surely be the slowest growth revenue model. It takes time to educate ad buyers on a new medium, plus it will require substantial customer usage (which also costs) to draw their dollars. I think the anchor tenant approach with the cities is the most viable first revenue model I have seen. Please note that no one approach is best. Plans have to be evaluated in their totality.

Next up: Looking forward to 2007

Tim Sanders

tim@thefinalmile.net  www.thefinalmile.net  www.wirelessglobalnews.com

To begin with my podcast, www.wimaxglobalnews.com is shifting from being done with with a partner, Tom Parish, to just me. Tom had some life and carreer changes this year that led him in a different direction. I will miss him. But I am going to work very hard to re-dedicate myself to the podcast and get that out regularly. I hope to start having interesting guests on shortly.

I am finally getting close on the new website and it will feature an industry forum feature for those who like chatting about the industry. I will moderate it. The Golden Rule of good conduct applies. It will also have lots of new features for visitors to make reading it easier.

Also, I have been doing a ton of media related work this past year but it looks like this year will shift toward working more in the WiMax industry and with clients. And my first research report, which will be geared to (you guessed it) what I know best which will be US Wireless ISPs should be out this winter.

It has been an eventful year. The two biggest stories in my opinion have been Municipal Wireless and WiMax, especially their win with Sprint Nextel. After that, the consolidation in the industry is very noticeable as is a new love affair with business-to-business focus by Broadband Wireless Providers, which I deeply approve of.

WiMax has been slowed by the shift toward using the 802.16e standard versus the 802.16d version, which in my opinion will shortly become the de-facto WiMax standard. In retrospect it would have been great if it could have been chosen for both fixed and mobile WiMax (802.16e) to begin with as I think the industry would be farther along. But all things in good time. I am not troubled by the shift. I do hope the Forum comes out with some fixed version 802.16e for unlicensed band providers but we will see.

I do think fixed WiMax technology will continue to do well for a time, but I expect we will see tons of fixed applications of mobile WiMax versions of 802.16e type technology in replacement of it. Most of the carriers currently active with precursor 802.16e technology are using it in fixed format. It is after all exactly what Clearwire, Unwired Australia, and numerous others are doing. This is where the low-hanging fruit is. Selling WiMax as a mobile service for those who are not already cellular companies will be a big culture shift. Note I said culture, not technology. I think the bigger hurdle will be changing their cultures to think Mobile. For that reason I expect non cellular WiMax carriers to be slow in ramping up mobile offerings. They will talk about it but actually doing it will be a big. deal. Besides the customer demand in fixed setting will be so high for a while that I think they may struggle to find mindshare for those shifts. Mobile will come as the Muni movement pushes it and the technologies converge and as fixed adoption slows. Then traditional fixed aspect carriers will look to shift to a more mobile stance.

I am going to end this first installment to keep the blog short. But I will add to this recap series in the coming week. Good to be back. Thanks for reading my blog.

tim@thefinalmile.net    www.wimaxglobalnews.com    www.thefinalmile.net