The Lions In Winter: a Detroit Lions blog

Old Mother Hubbard 2012: The Defensive Tackles

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 08:35:26 PST

The Old Mother Hubbard series takes stock of what goods the Lions have left in the larder; i.e. the assets they have going forward. We’ll assess each player the Lions will likely bring to training camp. By tradition, we start with the defensive tackles and move away from from the ball. Here’s what last year’s Old Mother Hubbard had to say about each defensive tackle the Lions will be bringing forward:
Ndamukong Suh:

An incredible physical talent, with almost unlimited upside. As a rookie, he performed like an above-average starter, while carrying the heaviest workload in the NFL. If he continues to improve, Suh will become one of the best in the NFL—and maybe one of the best ever.

Sammie Hill:

A natural big body who is slowly fulfilling his top-flight physical potential, Hill will remain a big part of the Lions’ rotation as his technique and body develop.

Corey Williams:

Williams was a two-way force for the Lions in 2010, and an incredible addition to the roster. With his natural size (6’-4”, 320 lb.), great acceleration, and sometimes-too-quick snap anticipation, Williams is a difficult assignment for any offensive lineman. It would be really, really, really nice if he could cut down on the penalties.

Nick Fairley, of course, was not around to OMH, and Andre Fluellen is an unrestricted free agent whose time seems to finally have come. Let’s see how Suh, Hill, Williams, and Fairley stack up against the league high, low, and average:

Ndamukong Suh is the perfect example of why I decided to add Advanced NFL Stats WPA+ and EPA+ data to this analysis. You can see that solid down-to-down run-stuffing combined with few-to-no penalties results in an extraordinarily high PFF grade, as with like the Jets’ Sione Pouha. Though Suh is the highest-graded pass rusher of this group at +8.6 (avg. -0.76), Suh’s overall grade is barely above league average at +3.3 (avg. +2.13).
This describes something true about Ndamukong Suh’s play: his -1.7 rush grade (avg. +2.45) means that most of the game, he’s doing a mediocre job of run stuffing and “pass coverage” (screen-sniffing-out). This is where EPA+ and WPA+ come in.
As Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats explains, EPA is a statistic that measures the Expected Points Added on offense: for each play made, how many points is that play worth (in his mathematical model)? Defensively, Burke measures performance with +EPA: he adds up “the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense.”
+EPA captures the positive impact a player has on his team—his playmaking ability. Generally speaking, the more and more-positive plays a player makes, the better he is relative to players who make fewer plays. To borrow a phrase, this accentuates the positive and eliminates the negative; +EPA can’t possibly measure defensive plays not made (Suh getting trap-blocked out of a play, for example).
There is an obvious connection between +EPA and high overall performance: Sione Pouha has the highest overall PFF grade, and the 6th-highest +EPA. But while Ndamukong Suh ranks 33rd in overall PFF grade, he’s 8th in +EPA. Suh is a “plus player,” to use scout’s parlance; he makes a dramatic positive impact on his team and the game.
Now, we turn to Win Probability Added. Again, Burke:

The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. For example, at the start of the 2nd quarter, a team down by 7 points with a 2nd down and 5 from their own 25 will win about 36% of the time--in other words a 0.36 WP. On that 2nd down and 5, let’s say there is a 30-yard pass, setting up a 1st down and 10 on the opponent’s 45. Now that team has gone from a 0.36 to a 0.39 WP. The WPA for that play would be +0.03.

EPA+ measures the expected points added by a defender’s positive plays, and WPA+ measures how much more likely a defender’s team is to win a game because of the positive plays he made. It makes sense that there’s a very high correlation between EPA+ and WPA+ (for this year’s DTs, it’s an r-squared of 0.883), but what WPA does is emphasize the game situation. A sack on 3rd and 6 is huge, but a sack on 3rd and 6 when you’re up by three late the 4th quarter is a lot huger than the a sack on 3rd and 6 when you’re up by 14 in the 1st.
So, back to Ndamukong Suh. He’s tied for eighth in WPA+ with 1.09; Pouha is 16th at 0.86. But wait, how can Suh have had a bigger positive impact on the Lions’ chances to win than Pouha, when Pouha’s PFF grade was literally ten times higher? WPA+ is a descriptive stat; it describes what happened in context—and in the case of defensive players, only describes their positive plays. Pouha was a devastatingly effective run-stuffer this year, and that’s it. He didn’t rush the passer, he didn’t pick off passes, he made tackles whenever they ran near him and didn’t screw up. That’s a formula for very high PFF grade, pretty high EPA+, and very good WPA+; exactly what we see.
There’s been a lot of talk about Suh’s reduced production this season. By PFF reckoning, he went from 11 sacks to 5, and from 48 tackles to 26. That came partially because of his lightened workload: in games he was active, he played 77.9% of snaps (of course, he was suspended for two games). In 2010 that figure was 90.4%.
The missing piece of the puzzle: stats that are not sacks. In 2010, Suh had 24 pressures and 6 QB hits. In 2011, Suh actually had more pressures, 27, and 4 QB hits despite being on the field for 224 (22.5%) fewer snaps. Suh actually had a sack, hit, or pressure more frequently in 2011 (avg. one per 22.1 snaps) than in 2010 (per 24.3 snaps).
Bottom Line: Ndamukong Suh is a fast, powerful pass-rushing tackle who impacts games about as dramatically as any DT in the NFL. His physical tools and competitive drive allow him to make huge plays at critical moments. His habit of taking bad personal foul penalties has come to a head and been addressed. His down-to-down consistency and run-stopping is improving, if slowly. In 2012, he needs to continue developing if he wants to reach his unlimited potential.
Sammie Hill had a 437-snap workload in 2011, and graded out at +2.5 overall, slightly above average. That’s a step down from 2010, when he received a +11.5 mark. From what I’ve seen on tape, they used Hill as the primary run-stopping tackle this year, and opposing lines are respecting that with double-teams. Hill is still learning how to handle this newfound attention, often getting dominated at the point of attack then using his strength to recover. His run-stopping grade went from +4.1 in 2010 down to +1.5 in 2011.
But like Suh, Hill had a positive impact much bigger than his PFF grade would suggest. His +WPA was 0.72, ranked 21st of 130 defensive tackles (and well above the 0.425 league average). His +EPA was 21.1, ranked 28th and nearly splitting the difference between Suh's 33.1 and the NFL average of 14.5.
Looking at the radar chart above, it's hard not to notice the Lions DTs hugging tightly to the NFL average in PFF grades, but flying way out towards the maximum in EPA+.
This confirms everything we think about the design of the Lions defense: they coach the linemen to get upfield and make plays, at the expense of typical DL responsibilities. Graded by traditional expectations of defensive linemen, they are mediocre. Graded by how they impact the game, they are outstanding. The whole picture takes both perspectives into account.
Bottom Line: Sammie Hill's is a powerful run-stopping DT with surprising athleticism. His role is growing, and his body and technique must scale with the challenge of his new responsibilities. He must learn to anchor against, or split, double-teams in the run game to take the next step.
Corey Williams needed to cut down on the penalties; he did, from 15 flags drawn in 2010 to just 8. However, he also cut down on the pass-rushing effectiveness. He went from a +9.2 PFF pass rush grade in 2010, down to -2.6. While his coverage and run-stopping grades held steady, cutting his penalties half only made him tied with Suh for third-most penalized DT in the NFL. His 0.5 +WPA and 13.8 +EPA closely match the NFL average for those stats, in a system that maximizes those metrics for DTs.
The ridiculous number of flags tossed his way were worth it when he was a dominant two-way player, not so when he's the least-effective pass rusher on the team. This is his contract year; I would not be surprised if 2012 is his last season in a Lions uniform . . . or if 2011 was.
Bottom Line: Corey Williams had an incredible 2011, arguably a better all-around performance than Ndamukong Suh's studly rookie year. But his pass-rushing performance fell off the face of the Earth when he stopped jumping snap counts, and he's still penalized far too often. If he does not recover some semblance of his 2011 form, he should (and will) be replaced.
Nick Fairley was a DT prospect nearly as beguiling as Ndamukong Suh; after the 2010 bowl season he was the consensus No. 1 overall prospect. Questions about his short on-field track record, his struggle with grades, and his off-field choices lingered, as did those about his long-term commitment to excellence. In the short term, it appears "excellence" is what he's all about.
His 236 snaps were just barely shy of PFF's 25% minimum threshold. If you discount that, Fairley was the Lions' top-graded overall defensive tackle in 2011. His pass rush, pass coverage, and run-stopping grades were all nicely positive, though he was assessed three penalties in those snaps, a poor rate going forward.
Fairley breaks the mold for Lions defensive tackles: he is consistently outstanding in every traditional phase of the game, nearly every down he plays. However, his low snap count and his lack of pursuit game have prevented him from generating enough "flash plays" to shine in metrics like +WPA and +EPA. This will change.
Bottom Line: On the field, Nick Fairley was everything the Lions could have asked for. His size, power, and desire to be great showed through every time he stepped on the field. Unfortunately, a foot injury slowed him at the beginning and end of the season. If he can stay healthy, and continue to develop his "country strong" physique, he could be a monster in 2012.
Overall, the Lions defensive tackles look deep and strong for 2012. Suh and Hill retrenched a little in 2011, but in the context of added responsibility. In very limited time, Nick Fairley was no less dominant in the NFL than in college. Corey Williams, though, had a relatively awful year, and the Lions must make a decision about him.
The Lions need three strong tackles to rotate, and a fourth for depth/development. If Williams is no longer a part of the top three rotation, he could be let go in favor of someone younger. Then again, if he's let go Hill becomes the graybeard of the group at 25. The Lions would also then rely on Hill to realize his potential as a dominant one-technique DT. The Lions may want to keep Williams for his veteran presence, if nothing else.
SHOPPING LIST: Nothing needed here, unless the Lions choose to jettison Williams in favor of someone younger/cheaper.

old mother hubbard Very Soon, an extremely late content promise

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 14:05:58 PST

DTs go up tonight, Friday mid-morning at the latest. In the meantime, here is some B/R goodness:

I Power Rank every Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
I break down the 8 best one-on-one matchups of Super Bowl XLVI.
I explain what the experts got wrong about the Giants and Patriots.

Updates: Old Mother Hubbard, Bleacher Report, Detroit Lions, Liverpool

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 17:31:03 PST

So, you’re probably wondering where the promised Old Mother Hubbard stuff is. This is a good wondering! I’m trying to use some advanced data visualization software instead of Excel charts, and the software is throwing me a learning curveball. I’ll revert to the regular old radar charts if I have to, but I’d really like to deliver on this.

Second, my Bleacher Report duties are ramping up in the run to the Super Bowl. I swore I wouldn’t let my B/R stuff slow my output here—but it’s critically important to me that I do a great job for B/R, just as it is that I do a great job here. I won’t compromise the quality of my work at B/R, or the quality of the Old Mother Hubbard posts, just to crank them both out at the same time.

If you haven't been following my work at B/R, here's some of my most recent stuff to tide you over

Why the Lions' cornerback help won't come in the NFL Draft.
Here's why the Lions could draft a defensive lineman in the first round.
Here’s the story of my graduation from virtual soccer fan to real-life soccer player.

Old Mother Hubbard 2012: Detroit Lions Team Needs

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:53:50 PST

Old Mother Hubbard
               Went to the cupboard,
               To give the poor dog a bone:
             When she came there,
              The cupboard was full of talented young football players,
             which was pretty awesome.

Yes, it’s time once again for The Lions in Winter’s annual roster analysis/team needs thing, Old Mother Hubbard. Last season’s edition added Pro Football Focus grades and statistics, plotting them on radar charts for easy understanding. This was well received.

I highly value PFF data, they do fantastic work that nobody else is doing. As I said, if I had the time to grade out every Lion on every snap of every game for these breakdowns I would—but PFF already did, so I stand on their shoulders.

However, I don’t think PFF data is the only valuable way of describing a player or season. I’m a big fan of the work Brian Burke does at Advanced NFL Stats, and I’m going to be including (at least) his Win Probability Added stat, WPA. Burke explains WPA here:

Stats are tools, and each tool has its own purpose. WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing.

WPA has a number of applications. For starters, we can tell which plays were truly critical in each game. From a fan’s perspective, we can call a play the ‘play of the week’ or the ‘play of the year.’ And although we still can't separate an individual player's performance from that of his teammates', we add up the total WPA for plays in which individual players took part. This can help us see who really made the difference when it matters most. It can help tell us who is, or at least appears to be, “clutch.” It can also help inform us who really deserves the player of the week award, the selection to the Pro Bowl, or even induction into the Hall of Fame.

There are two main weaknesses with PFF grades—or perhaps I should say, two main characteristics you need to keep in mind when evaluating players with them. First is a strong pull towards the mean. Since an unremarkable play—a typically decent effort—gets graded as a zero, the fewer snaps a player has the more “average” he tends to look in his grades. PFF acknowledges this with a default minimum of 25% of available snaps, but it limits their utility in describing role players and backups.

The other factor is what I call a “consistency bias.” PFF’s grading system loves players who make consistently positive down-to-down impact, and tends to pooh-pooh “home run hitters” who make a couple big plays per outing. WPA works in the opposite way: it loves players that makes plays that win games. Between the PFF data and WPA, we should get a very complete picture of how strong the Lions’ roster is, relative to itself and relative to the rest of the NFL.

Number crunching is happening now; OMH's start going up by the end of the week.

The Lions in Winter Blue Flame Awards, 2011 season

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 13:25:05 PST

As we head into the first weekend of the Lions’ offseason, it’s time for the second annual Blue Flame Awards. The inaugural Blue Flame Awards were a success, but I think they can be a lot bigger. I’m going to announce these one at a time, an hour or two apart, updating the post and Tweeting as I go. If you’re not @lionsinwinter on Twitter, now would be a great time to start.

The envelope, please . . .

Chris Spielman Heart of a Lion Award: Dominic Raiola, C

Given to the Lion who most profoundly exudes fire, toughness, and determination to win, Raiola could easily win this every single year. The moment that clinched it was Raiola’s statement in the wake of the Thanksgiving disaster: “Grow the f*** up.” And you know what? They did.

Bryant Westbrook Realized Potential Award: Titus Young, WR

When the Lions drafted Titus Young with the 12th pick in the second round, fans everywhere were in shock. Who? A wide receiver? From Boise State? It seemed senseless. With several pressing defensive needs, and the first round pick already spent on a "luxury," a receiver to groom behind Nate Burleson was a total head-scratcher. When he missed most of training camp and preseason with a nagging injury, fans assumed his chance to be productive this season was lost.

But the Lions knew exactly how they wanted to use Young, and Young threw himself into being a Lion. He immediately earned Matthew Stafford's trust, and hauled in 48 catches for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns. Best of all, it's clear he's just getting started.

Tom Moore Coach of the Year Award: Shawn Jefferson, WR Coach

It's a little too easy to give this award to offensive coordinator Scott Linehan for the second year in a row—though he deserves it just as much, if not more, than last season. But the job Jefferson did with the wideouts this season was phenomenal. Besides helping Calvin Johnson reach record-breaking new heights, he helped Titus Young achieve his Blue Flame-winning potential and Nate Burleson drop that #ToeDragSwag.

For a wonderful in-depth look at the job Jefferson is doing—and why the Lions will be lucky to keep him around—see Anwar Richardson’s feature on Jefferson on MLive.

Game of the Year: Week 5, Lions vs. Bears (Monday Night Football)

The Christmas Eve demolition of the Chargers that clinched the playoffs was special, but Monday Night Football was the Game of the Year and it isn’t even close. Besides being an anticipated-for-months revenge match for 2010’s season opener, besides it being a showcase game for the Lions, Lions fans, and the city of Detroit as a whole, and besides every second of the pre-game, in-game, and post-game festivities simultaneously oozing Motown and awesome, this is the game where the blue fire of Lions fandom roared so loud the Bears couldn’t play football in its presence. It was the greatest sporting atmosphere I’ve ever been a part of.

Nine false starts later, the Lions won the biggest Lions regular season game in decades—and Lions fans—you, me—were awarded a game ball by Coach Schwartz.

Mel Gray Three Phases of the Game Award: Jason Hanson, PK

At age 41, Jason Hanson entered training camp with question marks surrounding his injury—and, for the first time in nearly two decades, his job. In a legitimate kicking competition for perhaps the first time in his career, he shut out those suggesting it might be time to hang ‘em up and made 24 of 29 field goals (including blocks) and all 54 extra point tries. He proved he still has the leg, too, drilling 5 of 7 attempts from 50+ yards.

Honorable Mention: John Wendling

Mike Cofer Tecmo Super Bowl Beast Mode Award: Stephen Tulloch, MLB

After signing a one-year deal in the offseason, Stephen Tulloch stepped into the heart of the Lions defense and dominated. Besides leading the team in tackles, he led all Lions linebackers with sacks (3) and interceptions (2). He was Pro Football Focus’s seventh-highest-graded inside linebacker, at a whopping +20.8. He earned their second-best coverage grade, too: +11.2. His run-stuffing grade was the ninth-best in the NFL at +12.6.

Let’s please hope he stays.

Barry Sanders You Can Only Hope to Contain Him Award: Matthew Stafford, Quarterback

Matthew Stafford had the greatest statistical season of any Lions quarterback ever. 63.5% competions, 5,308 yards, 41 touchdowns—and only 16 INTs, almost all of which were thrown while Stafford was throwing with a glove over a broken finger. Megatron gets honorable mention here, but Stafford was asked to carry this team to the playoffs at age 23 and he did. Absolutely incredible, history-making performance.

The Watchtower Review

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 08:34:29 PST

The point of the Watchtower posts was to forecast the performance of the Detroit Lions against their weekly opponents. From the start, I’ve used historical performance data of the Lions coordinators against their opposition’s. By controlling for the relative talent of the players, I tried to isolate systemic advantages at the X-and-O level. I then tried to apply those advantages to the teams’ current skill levels, and project a result.

The Watchtower is one of my most popular features; people really dig it. It’s fun to write, especially researching every coordinator’s coaching tree, and picking the picture. However, after three years, I’m no longer satisfied with The Watchtower an alternative “game preview,” or as a predictive tool.

Watchtower Problem #1: heavy reliance on per-game team averages.

When I use average yards per attempt and average yards per carry, it gives a pretty accurate picture of those players’ performance levels. Whether a quarterback has 25 or 50 attempts, or 200 or 400 yards, dividing one by the other tells you at what rate the quarterback is generating offense, every time. But dividing “points scored in a season” by “games in a season” doesn’t work. A “game” is not a fixed unit of measure; there’s a wide variance in the number of possessions and plays in a “game.”

In every pass attempt, there is exactly one pass attempt, one bite at the apple. In every game, there’s a wide variance in possessions, time of possession, and plays. Example: when the Lions hosted the Vikings, they scored 34 points. When they hosted the Chargers, they scored 38. On the face of it (and in terms of the “points per game” numbers I’ve been using), the offense was very effective in both games.

However, in that Minnesota game the offense netted just 280 yards and 20 points from ten possessions. Against San Diego, the offense netted 440 yards and 31 points from eight possessions. This is a massive difference in effectiveness and it’s almost completely uncaptured by the current Watchtower methodology.

Dropping the "per game" team averages would allow me "tell the story" more effectively; I thought there was a very high chance that the first Packers game would be shockingly conservative—and the rematch a track meet. But using season average against season average, there’s no way to project either of those outcomes.

Finally, that "track meet" effect means something: there is a tendency for points to follow points, and that speaks to a very real offense/defense interaction effect that isn’t accounted for, either in traditional analysis or in The Watchtower. When one offense puts the pedal to the metal, the other one follows—and both defenses, apparently, just let it happen. Why? What’s going on here?

Watchtower Problem #2: No real accounting for turnovers or special teams.

This is one that’s bothered several readers from the get-go. The Watchtower is a study of offense-defense interaction: what happens when offensive scheme A meets defensive scheme B. But special teams and turnovers play a huge role in the final score.

In the Thanksgiving Day game, when the Lions and Packers played to a stalemate for most of the first half, a tipped pass fell into enemy hands and the Packers’ offense got to start deep in the heart of Lions territory. That was the game-changing play both teams desperately needed. Despite incredible down-to-down play by the defense, the offense was really the unit that put the Packers in position to score.

On special teams, the Lions’ coverage units struggled mightily throughout the first two thirds of the season, and it regularly hung the defense out to dry. Moreover, the iffy upfield blocking for Stefan Logan (and his own iffy fair catch decisions on kickoffs) failed to make the field shorter for the offense.

Watchtower Problem #3: The Human Element.

I project ranges for points, passing effectiveness, and running effectiveness for each side—then basically use the “Mitigating/Aggravating Factors” and “Conclusions” section to winnow those down to the final score I deem “most likely,” usually via talking-out-loud thought experiment.

There are several layers of my own bias involved here—and even though I work hard to follow where the data leads me, a little bias on top of a little bias on top of a little bias makes a big difference. I can definitely lead the statistical horse to water if I want to—and sometimes I do even when I’m trying not to.

What I’d love to be able to do is project a range of possible outcomes and their probabilities, so when I say “The most likely outcome is . . .” my a hand won’t be moving the data’s mouth.

Thoughts?

Three Cups Deep: Lions at Saints, Playoff Edition

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 09:09:28 PST

The Lions are not there yet.

In one of his final radio segments, Tom Kowalski projected the Lions would go 8-8. He said that they’d taken big steps, but in terms of matching up with the NFL’s elite, like the Packers, they’re “not there yet.” We saw that dramatically illustrated Saturday night. We also saw how close they are.

I talk a lot about the “story of the game,” a high-level narrative that explains the forces that forged the final score—or, in some cases, why the final score is a lie. This morning, the only story anyone wants to tell is that the Lions’ cornerbacks are terrible. The problem is, that story isn’t true.

Yes, the Lions safeties surrendered two touchdowns by leaving receivers completely uncovered; there’s nothing the cornerbacks can do about that. Lions defensive backs got their hands on potential interceptions that they didn’t bring in—but the Lions picked off 21 passes this season, fifth-most in the NFL. The Lions struggled to bring pressure with their front four, exacerbating the problem—but the Saints have All-Pro interior linemen and the tackles were holding the DEs like crazy. Ultimately, none of those details matter.

The Lions were a very good young team playing very well. The Saints were a great team playing great. The Lions did everything they could to hold back New Orleans, but in an uncomfortably apropos metaphor, the levee was going to break.

Drew Brees is playing the quarterback position as well as he ever has, which is to say as well as anyone ever has. Nate from Holy Schwartz! compared Brees and the Saints to Ivan Drago from Rocky IV. The physical disparity between Brees and Dolph Lundgren is hilarious (while we’re at it, so is the similarity between Ludmilla Drago and Brittany Brees). But in terms of performance, Nate is right: the Saints are a machine right now, and at this point I’m not sure even the Packers can defeat them.

I wrote in the Watchtower for this game that “’A performance + B player = A+B performance’ never works cleanly in the NFL,” and that’s true over the offseason. There’s no draft-eligible kid working out in Florida right now that would have made the difference in that game. There’s no free agent-to-be waiting for his phone to ring who would have made the difference in that game. There’s no A + B = C formula that makes the Lions better than the Saints.

As I’ve written before, every season’s team is its own alchemy, its own witches’ brew. You can take the exact same roster from one year to another and get wildly different results. Players grow and decline, roles change, synergy appears and disappears, schedules fluctuate, and variance—that devilish factor that bounces the ball all over the field—aids and injures as it will.

For the first time in a long time, it’s truly possible for the Lions to regress. Building blocks of the offense and defense may need to be replaced. Jeff Backus, Cliff Avril, and Stephen Tulloch are all major contributors who may or may not be back, and they only start the list. For the first time since Schwartz was hired, this offseason will not be unidirectional.

Still, what’s important here is that the core, the fundamental truth, the identity of this team will not change. Jim Schwartz is the head coach, Matthew Stafford is the quarterback, Calvin Johnson leads a legion of viable targets, and the defensive line is stacked. That, along with all the other factors, is good enough to get the Lions to the playoffs—and that will be true in 2012 as well.

Can Schwartz, Mayhew, Lewand and company brew a more potent batch of Lions in 2012? Can they add just the right ingredients, and hold back what might spoil the brew? Can they put it over just the right amount of heat so, as the Saints are doing now, it peaks in strength at the perfect time? We’ll see.

It’s an incredible time to be a Lions fan. This year’s Lions were an amazing, exciting, thrilling team. They fulfilled every expectation, and had a lot of fun doing it. With minimal changes, they should at least be good enough to make the playoffs in an exciting fashion next year, too. But win a championship? Well . . . they’re not there yet. Yet.

The Watchtower: NFC Playoff Wild Card Round

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 17:45:11 PST

The Detroit Lions made the playoffs exactly twenty years, after their last playoff win, and their first foe is familiar: the New Orleans Saints. The Saints were the first opponent of the Schwartz era, and they’re also the first opponent this blog Watchtowered. The methods have been refined, the predictions made more specific, and the tables prettier, but the idea is the same: use data to tell the story of the game before the game happens.

When the Lions last went down to New Orleans for an 8:00 pm showcase game, the data told me this story:

The Saints are like the mini-Packers, and the Lions are like the mini-Saints. These two teams hold up a mirror to one another, and the Saints are a little bit better in every phase of the game—except the Lions play much, much better pass defense. I could see this going either way, and the Saints have a huge advantage in the Superdome (they’re 5-0 at home).

However . . . last week I was rooting for a huge Monday Night Football win for the Saints over the Giants. Why? Because we’ve seen all too well what can happen to a team that pulls out all the stops for a huge home MNF win, and face a tough follow-up test the following Sunday. The Saints are due to come out flat, and the Lions are coming off a long week of rest and preparation.

I could sit here and flip thought-experiment coins all day, but that wouldn’t help much. I’ll just follow the numbers: The most likely outcome of the game is a 30-28 Lions win.

The final score was 31-17, but the winner of that game was not the Lions. There were two big reasons for that. First, the Lions without Ndamukong Suh, Chris Houston, and Louis Delmas—so the key phrase “the Lions play much better pass defense” in the above quote didn’t bear out (see my Lions vs. Brees pass defense film breakdown for details). Second, the Lions killed themselves with a few stupid mistakes.

Finally, there was the little matter of the referees:

My personal belief is that the league and/or officials are trying to send a message to the Lions. Now that they’re a “dirty team,” the Lions not only have to play as clean as everyone else, they have to play cleaner. They’re going to get flagged for things no other team gets flagged for. Rough stuff from the other side is going to go unpunished. The league is sending a message to the Lions, and it’s up to them to listen.

Now, the Lions are completely healthy. On Thursday, the Lions had full roster participation in practice: per John Kreger of CBS Rapid Reports, 21 of the 22 Week 1 starters will be expected to start on Saturday night, with Jahvid Best the only casualty. We can presume, then, that the Lions will do a much better job of playing to their season averages on Saturday night. Ah, yes—season averages.

One of the many, many benefits of making the playoffs is that the 2011 season-average data is actually an entire season; all the highs and lows of this year are as ironed out by sample size as they’ll ever be. With a full roster, and a full season, we can look at these numbers with as much confidence as possible.

Sean Payton vs. Gunther Cunningham

SP	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Gun	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
NYG	21st	20.0	7.20	3.80	TEN	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	29	45%	7.86	9%	2.48	-35%
DAL	15th	20.3	6.68	3.57	KCC	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	27	33%	9.59	44%	5.83	63%
NOS	1st	31.9	8.01	4.50	DET	32nd	30.9	7.79	4.51	45	41%	10.53	31%	4.49	0%
NOS	2nd	34.2	8.08	4.94	DET	23rd	24.2	6.34	5.00	31	-9%	9.50	18%	4.35	-12%

In the last Watchtower, I had a difficult time identifying any consistent trend with the three games Sean Payton had called against Gunther Cunningham. In the first contest, Payton’s Giant’s were the 21st-ranked offense in the NFL, and faced off against Cunningham’s 29th-ranked Titans. The Giants scored way above expectations, 45% better than their season average, despite Tennessee holding them to within 10% of their usual YpA and completely shutting down their run game.

In the next meeting, Payton’s 15th-ranked Cowboys met Gunther’s 16th-ranked Chiefs; a very even matchup of talent. Again, the Cowboys outperformed expectations, scoring a touchdown more than their season average—only this time, the rushing and passing effectiveness were both well above average, too, up 44% and 63% respectively.

Then came 2009's slaughter: the No. 1 Saints scoring offense faced a Lions unit ranked butt-naked last. What happened was predictable: a 41% boost in scoring output, accompanied by a 31% gain in passing effectiveness. Rushing effectiveness, interestingly, stayed flat.

Finally, we have December’s matchup. The Saints’ 34.2 PpG offense was the second-best this season—and it’s been extremely balanced, averaging 8.08 yards per attempt and 4.94 yards per carry. The Lions’ defense is ranked 23rd, allowing 24.2 points per game, 6.34 YpA, and exactly 5.00 YpC.

As discussed above, the Lions pass defense couldn’t meet their typical 2011 performance standards—not with their top interior pass rusher, top cover corner, and playmaking/coverage-quarterbacking safety all out of commission. They allowed 9.50 YpA to Brees and the Saints, 18% better than the Saints’ average gained and 33% more than the Lions’ average allowed. I’d expect that figure to be between 7.00 and 7.50 on Saturday.

Though the Lions had been allowing a healthy 5.00 YpC all season, and the Saints had been gaining rushing yards at an almost identical rate (4.94), New Orleans only ground out 4.35 YpC last month. That’s a very surprising result; I’ll project the Saints to more closely match their average: between 4.75 and 5.00.

Despite the lack of Suh, Houston, and Delmas—and despite the first-half loss of Nick Fairley, who was having an incredible game—and despite allowing 10.35 yards per attempt and despite allowing 21 points in the second quarter, the Lions still held Brees and New Orleans to 31 total points. That’s right: the 2nd-best offense met the 23rd-ranked defense and scored 9% fewer points than their season average.

Were the systemic wrinkles I caught on film enough to explain the Saints’ underperformance? If so, it’s tempting to project that same advantage on the Lions again. But the Saints have access to way more Lions tape than I do; Gunther and company will have to come up with an all new set of surprises if they want to get the drop on Payton again.

By skill against skill, I'd expect the Saints to score about 40 points. By average against average, it should be 30. By “take what happened last time and add in Suh, Fairley, Houston and Delmas,” it should be 20. But what’s the one thing The Watchtower has taught us, above and beyond anything else? The story of two teams playing against each other twice in one season is never the same.

Throughout this season, I’ve realized that “points per game” is far from an ideal metric. When the offense throws a pick six, that counts against the defense. When the defense gets a pick six, that counts for the offense. Watching the second Minnesota game, the offense played poorly and the defense very well—yet the 34-28 final score suggests a shootout. It’s for these reasons I discount “the Saints hang 40+” storyline that “2nd-best offense versus 23rd-best defense” suggests. Similarly, “A performance + B player = A+B performance” never works cleanly in the NFL.

With full season averages and a fully healthy roster, I give the two teams’ average performance levels the most weight. Therefore, taking into account the projected pass and run figures, I project the Saints to score 27-30 points, passing for 7.00-to-7.50 YpA and rushing for 4.75-to-5.00 YpC. Despite the lack of a strong, consistent historical systemic advantage, I have medium-to-high-confidence in this projection.

Aggravating/Mitigating Factors

As I said above, I don’t see the Saints racking up 40-plus unless the Lions do, too in a Week 17-style track meet. There is the potential for a surprisingly low-scoring game, if Suh, Fairley, Houston, and Delmas all make as big an impact as possible. However, the Lions defense still played very, very well in that game; I’m not sure how many plays those players would have made that their replacements didn’t.

The huge factor in the last game was penalties—stupid ones the Lions made, and terrible ones the referees called. If that factor is removed from the previous meeting, the outcome of that game is likely different.

As potentially huge as each of those two factors could be, they could also potentially be non-factors. I remain confident in the projection.

Scott Linehan vs. Gregg Williams

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	GW	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	8th	24.4	6.60	5.30	HOU	27th	24.8	6.20	4.49	39	60%	6.24	-5%	5.46	3%
MIN	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	HOU	21st	19.3	6.89	3.92	34	34%	7.92	11%	4.69	0%
STL	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	WAS	20th	19.2	7.18	4.47	37	62%	10.21	53%	5.05	19%
DET	27th	16.4	5.12	4.42	NOS	20th	21.3	6.57	4.49	20	22%	4.95	-3%	3.17	-28%
DET	4th	28.7	6.72	4.48	NOS	19th	22.9	6.52	5.03	17	-41%	9.27	38%	3.95	-12%

Throughout the history of the Watchtower, one of the most consistent effects I’ve identified is Scott Linehan offenses against 3-4 defenses, and 4-3 defenses that feature a lot of aggressive blitzing. Gregg Williams and his aggressive 4-3 defense are no different; he has struggled mightily against Scott Linehan offenses.

Look at the first four rows of this table. Linehan’s units were ranked anywhere from 6th-best in the NFL to 6th-worst, and the “PTSΔ” (change in points scored from season average) is massively positive every time. The running and passing effectiveness has been all over the map, with a lot of games near average—so against Gregg Williams defenses, Linehan offenses tend to get better point production from typical between-the-20s performance.

This season the Lions’ 4th-ranked offense, racking up 28.7 points per game, faced the Saints’ just-below-median 22.9 PpG defense—and only scored 17 points. This, despite completing 31 of 44 passes for 408 yards! Stafford’s 9.27 YpA performance was one of his best of the year, and it came with a below-typical-but-not-terrible 3.95 YpC effort from the running game. How could a high-flying offense spend a whole game gaining nearly one first down per pass attempt’s worth of yardage, but only muster 17 points?

Does the phrase "offensive pass interference" mean anything to you?

The Lions had 25 first downs to the Saints’ 21, and outgained them 466 to 438. But that one interception and those critical penalties swung the game around in a big, big way. The other problem was a missed field goal and a blocked field goal, wiping a usually-guaranteed six points off the board.

What are those expectations? I’m glad you asked. Last time, I projected this:

I project the Lions to score 30-33 points, pass for 6.75-7.25 YpA, and rush for 5.00-5.25 YpC. I have medium-high confidence in this prediction.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Actually, there aren’t too many. Unless Stafford completely melts down—or ditching the gloves unleashes a truly magnificent performance—I don’t see much wiggle room here. I expect the Lions to be able to take advantage of the Saints pass defense . . . whether that’s early on in an upset win, or in garbage time of a blowout loss, like last time.

Well, the Lions certainly were able to “take advantage of the Saints pass defense,” two-and-a-half yards per attempt better than I thought they would! Yet Lions’ inability to drive it all the way to the red zone and score killed them. This is the opposite of the effect we usually see when Linehan offenses meet Williams defenses.

The numbers have barely changed since I last looked at them. Even without the advantage, I’d expect the Lions to keep pace with the Saints here—and referees aside, that advantage was in evidence throughout the previous game. I’m going to bump the projected passing effectiveness to account for Stafford’s hot streak, and aim high on the rushing effectiveness because of a healthy Kevin Smith. Hanson won’t miss two field goals again.

Ultimately, I’m going to stay with the data, and project the exact same point total as I did a month ago: 30-33 points, coming from 8.00-8.50 YpA and 4.50-4.75 YpC.

Aggravating/Mitigating Factors

Did I mention the penalties?

Conclusion

It’s the same two teams, nearly the same set of numbers, in the same place at nearly the same time for even higher stakes. Last time Lions performed even better than I expected, but mistakes, injuries, and the officials held them back. I expect the Saints to take their game to the next level, too, though, so I can’t project a complete turning of the tables.

The data, and my instincts, compel me to project an even closer, 31-30, Lions win.

Detroit Lions Film Breakdown Against Drew Brees

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 04:50:31 PST

You all might like my film breakdown of the Lions defense against Drew Brees over at Bleacher Report.

Whether you do or don't enjoy that. . . Watchtower today.

Steve Spagnuolo, Jim Schwartz, & the Road Not Taken

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 11:15:45 PST

Spags is my #1 choice for the next Lions head coach--and he ought to be yours, too.

That was the closing line of my fifth post ever, the "To Whom it May Concern" for Steve Spagnuolo. I tagged him “Candidate 1A,” thanks to his impressive track record of coaching up defensive backs and harnessing pass-rushing talent. He also had experience in player personnel, making him an ideal fit for a franchise turning the keys over to a first-time GM.

Monday, Spagnuolo was fired.

It’s a visceral reminder of how thin the line between success and failure is in the NFL. It’s a reminder of how “the right” choices and “the right” processes can still lead to bad outcomes. You can make a great coaching hire like Spags, draft great prospects like Sam Bradford and Robert Quinn, sign great free agents like Pro Football Focus darling Quentin Mikell, and still have the wheels fall off. It’s not enough to make good individual decisions, they all have to synthesize into a greater plan—and sometimes, even that isn’t enough.

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch eloquently detailed how and why Steve Spagnuolo’s “trying hard” was too hard to swallow:

You don't get four-year or five-year building phases in this league anymore. You don't win seven games in your second season and then revert to being an expansion-team level mess in your third season. There should be zero tolerance for the horror of watching quarterback Sam Bradford regress so alarmingly in his second NFL season . . .

. . . My fear is that a bizarre alternate universe has set in over at Rams Park. It's a place where you can go 10-38 and merrily dish the kind of tributes usually reserved for a team that's gone 38-10.

We've lived in that alternate universe, haven't we, Lions fans?

Spagnuolo got off to a start mirroring Jim Schwartz’s. They both drafted franchise quarterbacks, they both took big jumps from one or two wins to six or seven wins, and coming into this season both had legitimate designs on making the playoffs.

In the end, though, Spagnuolo’s tenure more closely resembled Rod Marinelli’s. Both changed offensive coordinators in year three, both had major regressions on both sides of the ball, and both held a season’s worth of awkward press conferences full of blithering platitudes about building a foundation when the walls were clearly tumbling down.

And now: poetry.

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that, the passing there
Had worn them really about the same, 10

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back. 15

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

-Robert Frost, "The Road Not Taken"

Normally we just hear the last three lines of this poem, because this is America and “just being yourself” is our greatest collective virtue. Doing your own thing just to be different is universally lauded. Being interesting is just as valid, if not more so, than being good—just ask Lady Gaga.

But there are seventeen other lines to this poem, and Frost takes great pains to point out that neither of the two paths is any more or less virtuous. The path the speaker takes was “just as fair” as the other; it had “perhaps a better claim” because it was grassy and not worn down—but he admits both paths had been worn “really about the same.” Both were covered in undisturbed leaves anyway, so he might as well have flipped a coin.

This poem is about the lies we tell ourselves to spin our lives into dramatic narratives, with concrete causes and effects and triumphs and tragedies. The speaker tells himself he “kept the first [path] for another day,” even though in the back of his mind he knows it’s unlikely he’ll ever make this choice again.

The speaker is self-aware enough to know someday, years and years down the line, he’ll wistfully recall this apparently-fateful day in the woods—and tell someone with a sigh he took the road less traveled by, and in the end it made all the difference. He’s foretelling his own revisionist history! The choice, we know, was basically a whim—and whatever events followed it coincidental.

It's tempting to say Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand—or, if he is to be believed, William Clay Ford—were blessed with incredible foresight to let the Rams have the consensus “Candidate 1A” and tab Jim Schwartz to lead the Lions from the absolute bottom of the blackest abyss to the top of the mountain. It’s tempting to believe the Lions, by marching to the beat of their own drummer, got the “right” guy while the Rams foolishly followed the herd and got the “wrong” guy. Who knows? Perhaps it’s true.

But on the face of it, Spagnuolo and Schwartz were both great (and similar) candidates. So many factors go into the success of an NFL franchise that a head coach can be consistently excellent at his job and still fail (see: Andy Reid, who may have to hire Spags to save his own skin). Who’s to say that had the situations been reversed, Spagnuolo wouldn’t be leading the Lions to the playoffs while Schwartz tries to team back up with Jeff Fisher?

Whether it was a stroke of brilliant insight by the Lions executives, or a stroke of sheer luck, the Detroit Lions have a great coach doing great work with the considerable resources at his command. I can’t pretend I wouldn’t have loved the hiring of Steve Spagnuolo, nor can I pretend that if Spags were successful as Schwartz has been I wouldn’t be just as thrilled to have him prowling the Ford Field sidelines.

But the Lions took the head-banging, chess-playing, ref-eviscerating candidate less wanted, and I’m happy to tell myself The Grandmaster has made all the difference.

Fireside Chat: Lions at Packers

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 21:47:05 PST

'Tis better to celebrate a 10-6 season and a playoff berth than never to celebrate at all. This was a great one; had a lot of awesome Packers folk in the chat. I recommend.

As always, if you dig,subscribe via iTunes!

Fireside Chat at 10:45 pm!

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 19:27:15 PST

Join me LIVE for the Fireside Chat post-game show, at http://tinyurl.com/firesidechats!

Can the Lions Slay the Lambeau Field Dragon?

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 01:07:01 PST

Throughout the Lions’ three-season post-Millen run, they’ve snapped almost every negative streak, quenched almost every dry spell, and slain almost every dragon. Winning a game, winning a road game, winning a divisional game, winning a divisional road game, putting together home, road, and division winning streaks, having a winning season, going to the playoffs . . . short of postseason glory, they’ve accomplished everything the teams of the past decade couldn’t. Well, almost.

Up in Wisconsin, there’s a great writhing demon made of green and gold. A winged, fire-breathing losing streak whose 20 years make it the longest in NFL history. A physical and psychological force so strong the last Lions team to pierce it was the mightiest squad in my lifetime—the 12-4 NFC Central championship team—and even then they only squeaked out a 21-17 win.

There are all kinds of ridiculous stat nuggets to be unearthed about this streak. Matthew Stafford hadn’t yet turned three years old. Jason Hanson had just finished his junior year at Washington State. Brett Favre was at the end of his long-forgotten Atlantan purgatory. The Lions’ starting right tackle in that game, Eric Sanders, was born in 1958. The Lions’ defensive coordinator then, Woody Widenhofer, was also the DC for the Super Bowl-winning 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers. It was the season reproduced in Tecmo Super Bowl.

There’s one other brick in this wall: the Lions needed to beat the Packers in Lambeau Field to avoid 0-16, and couldn’t. Back in 2008, in the game Gosder Cherilus declared “Our Super Bowl,” Aaron Rodgers handily outdueled Dan Orlovksy while Packers running backs Deshawn Wynn and Ryan Grant piled up 106 yards—each. Lions cornerback Travis Fisher was forced to renege on his promise to walk home if they lost.

Of all the crazy stats about this terrible losing streak, this is the one that hits me hardest: the Lions have the chance to go from 0-16 to 11-5 in exactly three years. They have the chance to take the field at the site of their ultimate defeat, go toe-to-toe with the only dragon they’ve yet to slay, and walk off the field in triumph. Could there be more perfect, complete redemption?

Many Lions fans have cheered the news that the Packers are planning on resting many of their top starters. If the Lions push all their chips to the center of the table, they should have no problem raking the pot. Ah, but there’s the rub: is a victory truly a victory when the other side lays down? Michael Strahan would say so . . .

See? This is an old Packers trick: by giving the enemy a victory, they’re actually denying them one. If the Lions leave Lambeau with a gifted victory, some will say it doesn’t count. Some will think it doesn’t really break the streak. The green-and-gold dragon will still haunt this rivalry. Its specter will still be invoked next year, and the year after that if the Lions don’t repeat the feat in 2012.

Incredibly, as of this writing 2012 is “this” year. Something happened to 2011; it disappeared in a flash of lockout and victory. Somehow, another calendar year and season is water under the bridge. Somehow, this year full of uncertainty and anxiousness and potential and expectations became a year full of success and achievement and PLAYOFFS.

I’ve been saying, repeatedly, that I’ve felt like the Lions clinching a playoff berth is a moment of surreal elation, of detached awe. I still can’t really process it; this sort-of game against a Packers “B” side isn’t going to help ground my free-floating emotions, either.

Losing technically means nothing at all, but will be a bitter disappointment. Winning will technically mean the world for the Lions—but will it taste as sweet as if the Packers had gone all-out? Will it still satisfy? Will it still feel like the ice-cold blood of the Titletown monster has been spilt upon the frozen tundra?

Here’s hoping we get the chance to find out.

The Detroit Lions are the Opium of the Masses

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 00:29:56 PST

“Religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, and the soul of soulless conditions. It is the opium of the people.”

—Karl Marx, Contribution to Critique of Hegel's Philosophy of Right

Faith is a marvelous thing. It comforts those who have no other comfort. It fuels those running on empty. It inspires people to do wonderful—and terrible—things, even in the face of great adversity.

I started this blog because I was trying to do something wonderful. After 0-16, the fanbase had been reduced to two small camps: those who’d never stop caring because they loved the Lions too much, and those who’d never stop caring because they had no idea what else to be angry about on the Internet. I wanted to write to, and speak for, the former. I wanted to teach, and inspire, the latter.

As the self-appointed Flamekeeper, I’ve spent years figuratively slogging through the woods with a laden sled, and literally poring over spreadsheets ‘til I woke up the next morning upright in my chair with my hands on the keyboard. All the while, my general faith that things will turn around for the Lions—bolstered by my specific faith that the Lions have found the right executives and coaches this time around—has kept me going.

This season has been the culmination of everything I’ve worked for, and everything us fans have waited for. No more arguing, no more hypotheticals, no more drama: the Detroit Lions are going to the playoffs. All that’s left is to watch, cheer, and see how far they go.

This is an existential crisis for me. I’m reminded of a passage from Douglas Adams’s The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy:

"I refuse to prove that I exist," says God, "for proof denies faith, and without faith I am nothing."

"But," says Man, "the Babel fish is a dead giveaway isn't it? It could not have evolved by chance. It proves that You exist, and so therefore, by Your own arguments, You don't. Q.E.D."

"Oh dear," says God, "I hadn't thought of that," and promptly vanishes in a puff of logic.

"Oh, that was easy," says Man, and for an encore goes on to prove that black is white and gets himself killed on the next zebra crossing.

On May 27th, I flatly declared The Lions are Going to Make the Playoffs. On August 18th, I said there are two possibilities for Matthew Stafford this season: injury, or becoming a Top 5 quarterback. When called out for drinking Lions Kool-Aid, I poured another round. I knew, without knowing. I believed. The glory I’ve seen far-off on the horizon since the day Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand assumed control of the franchise—the day I started this blog—is here.

And the moment itself? Where was I, as the clock on an eleven-year nightmare hit 00:00?

I was at church.

Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised that the actualization of everything I’ve been telling everyone will happen has thrown me. Over the years, I’ve learned very well how to rationalize the difference between my hopes and reality. I’ve learned how to soak up disappointment and despair, use it to adjust my perspective on things, and then wring it out, ready to keep tending the little blue flame.

I have absolutely no idea what to do with this fact: the Detroit Lions will walk into Lambeau Field, and play a game for no higher stakes than what seed they’ll be in the playoffs.

Throughout the previous eleven years there have been many seasons the Lions have won a big game, or a streak of games, at the bitter end of an awful campaign. Every time, it’s been pointed at as the start of something new, a stepping stone for the promising season to come. In reality, it’s often had more to do with the Lions’ opponent sleepwalking through a game they figured they had in the bag.

I don’t know whether the Packers are going to play Aaron Rodgers, or any of their other starters Sunday morning. I don’t know whether the Lions will play the sixty-minute, mistake free game they played against the Chargers, or implode as they did in the first Packers game. I don’t know if the Lions will rise to the occasion and claim a higher seed—and potentially, a much easer path through the playoffs—or show up, punch the clock and go home.

So what now? What now, that I have no idea what the future holds? What now, that my convictions about this season have all been satisfied? What now, that the Lions players, coaches, and staff have shown to the world they can play with anyone in the NFL? What now, that I’ve had my faith—my opiate—denied by proof?

I’ll do what I’ve always done: I’ll cheer with all my heart, and hope to inspire you all to do the same.

This blog was partially born out of a struggle between factions of Lions fans—but now, there are no factions. We’re all just celebrating the Lions’ success together—exactly what I’ve always hoped for. The Lions in Winter’s mission was and is an exploration, and chronicle, of what it means to be a Lions fan—and I can’t think of anything more exciting to explore and chronicle than the Lions’ run to and through the 2011 NFL Playoffs.

MNF: Monday Night Fireside Chat

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Mon, 26 Dec 2011 09:45:37 PST

Thanks to Christmas-y activities—and pure time mismanagement--I couldn’t do a Fireside Chat post-game show this weekend. So tonight, around 10 pm, be sure to tune in at the Fireside Chat Ustream channel, or at the Podcast tab above!

Christmas Time is Here Again

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Sun, 25 Dec 2011 16:52:51 PST

It's time.

It's time for family and friends to get together, gather 'round the big blue bonfire and share in the old traditions. We feast in this time of plenty. We sing the song handed down through generations. We stand and cheer the brave.

It's felt like the Lions have been guided by fate this season. The fourth-quarter comebacks, the signature wins, the tough losses to great teams and the blowouts of bad ones.

Though individual games have been surprising, the overall course of the season has followed the rails of conventional wisdom. A fast start, a shaky stretch in the middle, and a bounceback before a tough final three games.

The good news is, everything else has fallen into place around them.

All year, I've been sounding the alarm about Week 17--the final, fateful crucible in Lambeau Field. It's possible, even probable, I've said, that the Lions enter that game at 9-6, needing a win to make all of their dreams--and ours--come true.

Instead, the Lions could clinch this week without winning another game. With losses by the Giants, Cardinals, Seahawks and Bears the Lions' ticket will be punched.

But forget that. Forget backing in. Forget the iron rails of fate. Forget the zodiac and tarot cards and crystal balls and tea leaves. I don't care about any of that stuff.

I care about the Lions winning.

If the Lions can beat the red-hot Chargers tonight, if the Christmas Eve crowd can be merry and bright enough to swing the advantage their way, they'll have wrested the pen away from Fate and inked their own name in the record books.

It's the time we've all been waiting for, chopping the wood for, tending the fire for. It's the time we've spent days upon weeks upon years wondering if it would ever come.

It's time.

Spend tonight in the company of friend and family and good food and good spirits. Cheer the Lions on with all your heart, wherever you may be. Then, win or lose, comfort yourself with family, friends, and faith.

May God bless you all on this sacred night.

So what’s up with Ty?

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 17:29:38 PST

So why haven’t I posted in a couple days? A) I came down with a nasty cold on Monday, and it put me almost completely out of commission Tuesday and Wednesday. 2) My laptop power cord died, and after six hours of uselessly wrestling with it Wednesday night and Thursday morning, I broke down and got a new one.

So. First crucial link: my exclusive interview with Justin Durant, over at Bleacher Report.

Second crucial link: Detroit OnLion’s Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Black Hole.

Thirdly, I’m going on a lyrical rampage tonight. There should be some legit content here and Bleacher Report tomorrow. Many thanks for your patience.

Three Cups Deep: Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 23:26:12 PST

Let’s get one thing straight right now: nobody controls their own destiny.

It’s impossible; destiny is what’s written in the stars. It’s capital-D Destiny, the end the fates have penned for us. If you believe in Destiny, then you know the story of this Lions season has already been written. We’re just flipping through the pages, week after week, chapter after chapter

No matter what happens in the final chapter, we know this much: it’s a hell of a story.

You know whoever’s got the pen knows exactly what they’re doing. I’ve said before that this Lions team has an identity, and it’s Matthew Stafford throwing to Calvin Johnson and his receivers, as Ndamukong Suh and the defensive line prevent the other side from keeping pace.

Well, Matthew Stafford led a 98-yard comeback drive, capped it off with a touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson, and Ndamukong Suh (back from suspension) blocked the Raiders’ potential game-winning field goal. The symbolism is so thick Earnest Hemingway could cut it with a knife. In the rain.

The Lions won the game, and as a result they are winners. Not just noble losers, or not-losers, they are winners. They have won more games than they can possibly lose this year, for the first time in over a decade. It’s incredible, it’s unbelievable . . . but is it surprising?

Via text and Twitter, I received messages throughout the game that saw it both ways. Some were sure the Lions had already disappeared, Marty McFly style, from the NFC playoff picture. Some, though, were convinced the Lions had it in the bag—they were just watching to find out how Stafford and company would pull it off this time.

Three seasons ago, the Lions played an entire season and didn’t win a single game. On Sunday, Matthew Stafford had just been sack-fumble-six’d to go down 27-14 with 7:47 on the road in Oakland with the season on the line, and he played like he’d just been waiting for the Raiders to make it interesting.

Stafford kicked it into an incredible gear. He was both more intense and much calmer. His passes, a little sail-y and a little gunslinger-y all day, were laser-guided cotton balls. He shrugged off some excruciating drops, avoided the rush, even took matters into his own hands on 4th-and-2, juking out a linebacker to pick up the game-saving first down.

We knew Matthew Stafford was a gamer when NFL Films mic’d him up for that legendary comeback against the Browns. But we didn’t know if he’d ever be good enough, or he’d ever have a good enough team around him, for the “gamer” thing to matter. What Stafford did that day was nothing short of incredible, and watching it gives me chills to this day.

But he did it to beat a wretched Browns team with a coach who’s coaching his D-III alma mater now and a quarterback who got traded for a backup white running back and made it look like a steal for the team that traded him away. This time, Stafford clutched up to not only beat a playoff contender on the road, he did to to save—and possibly, cement—the Lions’ first playoff campaign in twelve years.

Now, the Lions’ path couldn’t be straighter. They have two games to do what they’ve done nine times already this year: win a game. They win, they’re in—that’s it. That’s the challenge. Unfortunately, the fates have damned the Lions once again: they must either beat one of the most talented teams in football just as they’re hitting their stride, or travel to Lambeau Field and leave with a “W,” which they haven’t done since 1991.

If the last chapter in this story is the NFL playoffs, the Lions are going to have to come up with their most mind-boggling, credulity-straining performance yet. Just the way Matthew Stafford likes it.

Fireside Chat: Detroit Lions vs. Oakland Raiders

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 09:12:25 PST

I'm still vibing off this win. It's a watershed moment in the development of this team, these players, and this fanbase. The Lions are WINNERS now, and nothing can take that away from them.

As always, if you dig, please subscribe to the Fireside Chat via iTunes and rate it highly!

Fireside Chat at 10:00 PM EST!

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 18:39:40 PST

Y’all. Hit up http://tinyurl.com/firesidechats at 10:00 PM EST.

The Fallen Watchtower: Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 12:29:36 PST

In the excitement of interviewing Brandon Pettigrew (and Justin Durant, keep your eyes peeled), plus adding stat analysis to my weekly film study, PLUS all the various pre-Christmas festivities, it’s been a wild, wild weekend here at TLiW Headquarters.

Normally, I’d power through and do a full Watchtower, but look: Hue Jackson has the most ridiculous resume I’ve ever seen. Since starting out as a grad assistant at Pacific, Jackson has been promoted, or taken a new gig, nearly every single year. He’s worked at almost every level of college, the NFL, and even the World League of American Football. He’s coached under all kinds of coaches in all kinds of systems, from Marty Schottenheimer to Steve Spurrier and everyone in between.

His offensive coordinator is Al Saunders, a prominent disciple of Don Coryell (along with Norv and Ron Turner, Mike Martz, etc.). But I’d need do to some pretty extensive digging to confidently say how much Air Coryell exists in the Raiders’ current attack. So, I punted.

Raiders offense vs. Lions defense

There’ll be no systemic data here, but we can still compare season averages as usual. The Raiders are the 16th-ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 22.3 points per game. They’re averaging 7.14 YpA through the air, and 4.57 YpC on the ground. If this sounds like a very effective dual-threat offense that keeps shooting itself in the foot, you’re right.

Carson Palmer has thrown an interception on 5.9% of his pass attempts, by far the worst in the NFL. Perspective: Rex Grossman is #2 at 4.6%. The Raiders are also the only team that’s kept pace with the Lions’ league-leading 27 personal fouls. The Raiders’ running attack was extremely potent when Darren McFadden was catalyzing it with his 5.4 YpC, but he’s sidelined for the year with a lingering foot injury. Michael Bush and his 3.9 YpC will be carrying the load today.

The Lions defense is allowing 23.5 points per game, 23rd in the NFL. They’re still only allowing 5.82 YpA through the air, and still a whopping 5.10 YpC on the ground. On the whole, they’re a much better defense than their points-per-game shows; they get a lot of three-and-outs and takeaways—but they also get hosed by the offense giving it back, and both sides of the ball commit a lot of penalties.

I'd expect the Lions to force a lot of turnovers today, especially if Suh and the defensive line can generate pressure without the blitz. I project the Raiders to score 17-21 points, passing for 6.00-6.50 YpA and rushing for 4.50-4.75 YpC.

Lions offense vs. Raiders defense

The Lions have been Jekyll and Hyde all season long. Their passing game has been everywhere from dominant to disjointed, and their rushing game has been everything from unstoppable to invisible. On the whole, the Lions are averaging 28.2 points per game, still 4th-best in the NFL. They're still averaging 6.91 YpA, and 3.68 YpC.

Kevin Smith returns (again) this week, so perhaps the running game will be a little closer to the former than the latter. Matthew Stafford has been “on,” or close to it, for three out of the last four weeks. On the average, the Lions’ offense is a less potent-but-more-effective version of the Raiders’. In the specific, when Matthew Jekyll (and his offensive line) shows up the Lions are one of the best offenses going . . . Mr. Jekyll shows up most often against bad passing defenses.

The Raiders are allowing 27.2 points per game, 28th-best (4th-worst) in the NFL. However, like the Lions, their pass defense is quite stout: they’re allowing must 6.24 YpA. But like the Lions, they “can’t stop the run;” they’re allowing a ridiculous 5.24 YpC on the ground.

Though the Lions should do much better than average against the 28th-ranked defense, the Raiders’ tight pass defense and raucous home crowd should depress scoring a bit. I project the Lions to score 28-32 points, averaging 6.75-7.25 YpA and 4.50-4.75 YpC.

Conclusion

Jeremy Reisman of Detroit OnLion will actually be at the game—and not just there, but in Section 104, in the heart of the Black Hole. On last week’s Fireside Chat he promised to wear his Honolulu Blue; please admire his spirit and pray for his safety. If you’re curious how to cheer in non-Lions games, follow Pride of Detroit’s Rooting Guide.

As for the Lions? I project a 30-17 Lions victory, though both numbers could easily be swayed either way by turnovers or penalties.

Matthew Stafford Must Learn to Balance Risk

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 10:15:18 PST

Matthew Stafford has never been accused of being conservative. From high school to college through the combine to the NFL, he's always put his cannon arm to good use. However, for the first time as a pro, Stafford appears gun-shy.

Against Minnesota's beleaguered secondary, Stafford seemed content to take what the defense gave him throughout the second half—even as his Lions watched their lead dwindle. Is Stafford becoming a risk-averse dink-and-dunker? I looked at stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com to find out:

The top (blue) line is Stafford's game-by-game average yards per completion. The bottom (black) line is average yards per attempt. The chart at the bottom has the values for each data point.

This chart tells the story of the Stafford's aggressiveness and effectiveness throughout the year. Look at the difference between the Cowboys game and the first Bears game, Week 4 and Week 5. Stafford's average yards per completion is practically identical: 11.43 versus 11.53. However, his yards per attempt were wildly different: 5.58 versus 8.42.

The difference between those figures is incompletions. Every incomplete pass is a zero-yard attempt, which drags down the YpA. In the games against Dallas, San Francisco, Chicago and Atlanta, the yards per completion was nearly flat at around 12; he was going deep in all four games. But his YpA was below six—extremely low—against Dallas, San Francisco and Atlanta.

Stafford was throwing deep whether or not it was working. At the time, I wrote that he needed to step up, to be confident in the pocket and execute the offense. To find his second and third options instead of bombing it downfield to Calvin Johnson every time he's under pressure.

Since then, Stafford's risk/reward balance has been wildly inconsistent. Against the Broncos, Panthers and Saints, Stafford was both aggressive and effective. His completions averaged 12.63 yards across those three games, and his attempts averaged an outstanding 9.18.

At Soldier Field, and on Thanksgiving, Stafford was extremely conservative and much less effective. His average completion gained just 9.31 yards, and his average attempt netted just 5.6. Calvin Johnson was used heavily in the slot and on short crossing routes; the Lions used him like a Keyshawn Johnson-style possession receiver.

I expected to see Stafford and the Lions take advantage of the depleted Vikings secondary—but their game plan seemed very risk-averse, especially once they established an early lead. In the third quarter, I saw Stafford pass up a wide-open touchdown. The television broadcast cut the dramatic proof off, but this is the play:

Let's examine this a little more closely.

Pre-snap, Calvin Johnson is at the top of the screen, to Matthew Stafford's right. At the bottom (Stafford's left) is Nate Burleson. The Lions have two tight ends to the strong (right) side, and Maurice Morris in at tailback.

At the beginning of the clip, just before the snap, Stafford's eyes are right on Vikings strong safety Jamarca Sanford, showing blitz. Cornerback Asher Allen is lined up perpendicular to the line of scrimmage, trying to deny Calvin Johnson the outside. The read should be single coverage; Stafford should be looking for Johnson deep.

At the snap, there is play action to the weak side, then Stafford bootlegs back to the strong side. Both tight ends go out: Tony Scheffler down the seam and Brandon Pettigrew on a short out route.

Sanford, the blitzing strong safety, flies towards the run action but wisely picks up on the play fake. He hits the brakes, and turns to chase Pettigrew to the sideline.

Here's where you're going to have to trust me. Calvin Johnson, just off-frame, breaks inside, then quickly towards the sideline. Allen bites on the first move and Johnson gets WIDE DIRTY OPEN on the second. Watch the clip again: you can see Stafford look downfield and pat the ball once, twice, looking at Johnson the whole way. Stafford then gives up and fires it to Pettigrew for an easy four-yard gain.

Maybe Stafford was spooked by the approaching presence of Jared Allen. Maybe Johnson waited too long to make his move. Maybe Stafford just wanted the sure thing. But on 1st-and-10 from the 40-yardline? Up 31-14? That's the perfect time to take a shot deep.

Johnson was left all alone, two steps behind his only defender—in an offense where single coverage is supposed to equate an automatic ball his way.

The Lions didn't know it then, but after scoring 31 points in the first quarter, they would only muster one field goal in the whole second half. Stafford passed up a golden opportunity to put the Vikings away here, and that lack of killer instinct nearly cost them the game.

If the Lions are going to beat the Oakland Raiders in the Black Hole in December, Stafford must do a better job of balancing risk and reward.

Brandon Pettigrew Interview, Courtesy of Legends Sports & Games

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 10:06:07 PST

Congrats, @ttopherstevenn!

Last night, Brandon Pettigrew came to Legends Sports & Games, and a few faithful followers joined me going to see him. Courtesy of Legends, I was able to give @ttopherstevenn a Lions mini-helmet, and Pettigrew’s John Hancock upon it:

Brandon was cool throughout the event, having a good time with just about everyone who came through the long autograph line. He seemed engaged and relaxed, very comfortable with his fans. I asked him why, unlike a lot of his teammates, he wasn’t active on social mediums like Facebook and Twitter.

“I used to be on Facebook a little bit. Never been on Twitter," he said. "My deal with that is just . . . it’s having to deal with what everybody has to say all the time, having to respond to it and put up with it.”

Case in point: @ndamukong_suh going almost completely silent from the Thanksgiving Day game to Suh’s reinstatement yesterday. Those of you who remember the abuse Suh took on Twitter during his few-days-long holdout can up that by a couple orders of magnitude; it’s no wonder Pettigrew doesn’t want to deal with a distraction like that.

I’ll spare you folks the lecture this time, but it’s unfortunate that a cool player like Pettigrew doesn’t feel like the benefit of interacting with the cool fans is worth giving the boo birds a direct pipeline to his smartphone. Honestly, I can’t blame him.

Pettigrew and Matthew Stafford were drafted together; the “third season” is supposed to be the make-or-break for both quarterbacks and receivers. Pettigrew’s taken a big step forward in the role of the offense, especially on third downs and in pressure situations. He’s second on the team with 62 catches, and third with four touchdowns. I asked him if this was because he and Stafford were developing unique chemistry as they developed together.

“I think we've all got good chemistry, as we develop as a team and an offense,” he said. Sure, but is the offense designed to get him the ball when it counts? Or is Stafford favoring him, specifically? Pettigrew said it’s neither; just that Stafford is “going through his progressions, matchup-wise. Calvin's getting doubled, and [Stafford]'s got to find the guy who's getting open.”

With three games left to play, the Lions face two road games in notoriously tough environments. I asked Pettigrew how the Lions planned to handle the adversity. “We've been hurting ourselves with penalties. If we do away with that, I think we'll be fine. We just need to play mistake-free football, and play the way we're capable of playing.”

Once more, thanks go to Legends Sports & Games for putting this event together, and providing a TLiW reader with an awesome little piece of awesome.

Brandon Pettigrew Giveaway Update

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 13:22:02 PST

For those of you who missed it, I’ll be in Grand Rapids tonight at Legends Sports & Games in the Westland Mall from 6:00 – 7:30 for a Brandon Pettigrew autograph signing. Those of you who entered the contest for the DirecTV remote, I’m going to contact you later in the week; as of the Fireside Chat I didn’t feel like I had enough entries to make a “drawing” truly random.

As for the Mini-helmet, I have two confirmed online entrants: @jasontwilliams and @ttopherstevenn. Anyone else in GR is welcome to drop by; I will hold the drawing at 7:00. You do gotta be there.

Three Cups Deep: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

noreply@blogger.com (Ty) — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 10:27:15 PST

Eight wins.

The Lions have won eight games.

For the first time in eleven years, the Lions will not have a losing season.

Since Bobby Ross quit midseason, and former U-of-M head coach Gary Moeller took the reins. Since Charlie Batch was the starting quarterback. Since Desmond Howard was the star returner. Since Jason Hanson . . . okay, bad example.

Lost in the hubbub of a missed facemask call that may or may not have affected the outcome of the game, the mysterious failure of the offense to score more than 20 points when the defense handed them the ball four times, and the infuriating transformation of Joe Webb into Mike Vick, was the Lions shattering a seven-win glass ceiling that stymied each of their last three head coaches.

As I said on the Fireside Chat, this was a bizarre, disorienting game. The offense moved the ball effectively. Matthew Stafford’s stats looked great. The defense got six turnovers and converted two of them directly into 14 points. There are hints of the problem in the 269 rushing yards surrendered and 72 rushing yards gained, but even that doesn’t explain the bizarre inability the Lions had to put the Vikings away.

Throughout the game, folks watching at home hit me up on Twitter and via text to ask me what was wrong with the crowd. The “Lions Nation Army” of Ford Field was more like Bingo Night at the VFW Hall.

In the crowd’s defense, it was a hard game to get into. The lighting-fast run up to 28-7 made it feel like the rout was on. It felt like, just as with the preseason games and Kansas City and Denver, the switch had been flipped and the good-old-fashioned woodshedding everyone had hoped for (and was secretly expecting) was underway.

When that rout didn’t come, it took the crowd out of the game. When the Vikings started creeping back into it, it really made the crowd antsy. When time after time after time, the Lions found a way to fail to put a dagger in the Vikings’ hearts, the crowd grew restless. There were even boos audible on 4th down decisions to punt and/or kick field goals. Boos, mind you, when the Lions were still leading by multiple scores.

It was hard to get into it when the Lions couldn’t put the Vikings out of it. It was hard to get loud when we were trying to figure out what the heck was going on. It was hard to get amped for a defense that’s so convinced Joe Webb can’t possibly beat them throwing that Joe Webb was killing them on the ground.

None of this excuses the crowd, of course. I think we’ve already grown happy and fat on expectations. If we Lions fans want a reputation as a huge home field advantage, if we want to keep earning game balls, if we want to keep other teams practicing with fake noise set at 120 dB, we have to arrive loud and stay loud. We can’t just wait to see if it’ll be worth our effort and then buy in. The team needs our support for four quarters; let’s give it to them. Also, I saw some “fans” heading for the exits during Minnesota’s final drive. As I said on Twitter, I have some words for those folks: NEVER COME BACK.

Ultimately, the Lions got the ‘W’, and in terms of the season that’s all that counts. At 8-5 the Lions are a game up on the Bears, Cowboys, and Giants—all of whom can’t string two wins together to save their lives. With the division win over the Vikings, and the Bears’ common-opponent loss to Denver, the Lions now have the tiebreaker over the Bears, on top of the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Cowboys. With three games to play, the Lions have an effective two-game lead on both the Cowboys and the Bears, and a one-game lead on the Giants.

But of course, one of the Cowboys or Giants will win the NFC East, meaning the Lions and Falcons are essentially in a two-horse race for two spots. If the Lions take care of business in Oakland, they’ll earn their first out-and-out winning season since that fateful 2000 campaign. After that, the Lions could clinch a playoff berth at home against the Chargers, completing their first 10-win season since 1995—not coincidentally, the year Scott Mitchell set all the passing records Matthew Stafford is on track to break. That game falls on December 24th . . . and what a wonderful Christmas present that would be.