The 9th Frame: Palmer Unfiltered

The Future of the 9th Frame (continued)

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 13:42:00 +0000

I'm back. (Temporarily at least.)

So I've been thinking about this blog and where I wanted to take it (if anywhere) now that the election is over. I proposed some options in my last post that generated several comments. Many thanks. I haven't made any decisions yet, but here are my thoughts right now:

A. Guest authors. Some people have mentioned contributing to this site for many months. I'm inclined to do this eventually, BUT I'm not sure how attention this blog would generate. The 7-10 is my main blog. It has far more subscribers and a far larger readership than The 9th Frame. If a guest poster put something up here, I'm not sure how many people would read it. The 7-10 is much closer to reaching critical mass. So until this blog becomes more established and more popular, I'm not inclined to open it up to guest authors because I don't want people to invest a lot of time contributing to a community that is not quite there yet. Of course, adding diverse content may be what draws people to the site in the future, but I don't yet have enough time to serve as a blog administrator. So the short answer is, I want to open this blog up to guest authors, but not just yet out of fairness to you, this blog, and my own schedule.

B. Continuing The 9th Frame as a part of The 7-10. This is not an option. The 7-10 is a syndicated blog and has a certain "brand image" to maintain. So I'm not really at liberty to start injecting snark and three-sentence posts there. Doing so would result in being dropped from Newstex and other blog aggregator/syndication sites.

C. Multimedia as a part of The 7-10. This is more of an aesthetics vs. convenience decision. The 7-10 loads very quickly. For readers who don't have broadband access or who have slow or disrupted internet connections, that blog works great as is. But I also understand that adding a bit of color in the form of multimedia may make it more visually appealing. What I do at The 7-10 now is simply provide links to the relevant pictures or videos. One site that is a hybrid of The 7-10 and The 9th Frame is a site based in Nebraska called Political Realm. That site provides mostly detailed analysis, but also includes a lot of multimedia elements and a few short posts. Sometimes Political Realm doesn't load as quickly because of all the videos there, however. But it's a very good site that I check regularly. The Rothenberg Political Report, created by professional political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, has no multimedia content whatsoever. That site looks more like The 7-10. My inclination is that political junkies are more inclined to look for sites like the Rothenberg Political Report, but more casual followers of politics are more interested in sites like Political Realm. The 9th Frame seems to have a different set of followers than The 7-10. So I'll really have to think about this.

D. Keep The 9th Frame, but update it less often. This is the direction I'm leaning in. I still have occasional thoughts to share, but updating this blog the way I was doing earlier this fall (3-5 posts per day!) is not going to happen anymore. To fill the void, I could add the guest posting element, but that brings me back to the amount of time I want to invest in this site.

E. Shut this blog down. That's not an option. Politics will always go on, and so should political blogging.

So basically, I'm likely to pursue Option D, but have not ruled out Options A and C. Thoughts?

The Future of The 9th Frame

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 23:56:00 +0000

The election is over. Like political bloggers everywhere, over the next few days I'll be reassessing my blogging in general and what I'll write about in the future.

I did not intend for The 9th Frame to be a permanent blog. There was just so much information coming out before the election that I couldn't write about in depth at The 7-10. So I created this sister blog as an "overflow" blog of sorts. You'll notice that I haven't even fully added the blogrolls like I did at The 7-10.

Now this blog has almost 250 entries in just a few short months. I don't anticipate keeping it in operation too much longer, but I'm not so sure I want to completely shut it down either. It looks like this blog has developed a small, but steadily growing base of readers. I don't want to leave them hanging. But it's really hard work maintaining two blogs. And because the peak of the political cycle is over now, there will be less news to write about. So it would seem that this blog would become a bit more boring.

Before I go any further, I want to tell you all that The 7-10 is not going anywhere. That's my main blog, and it has really grown over the nearly 2 years it's been in operation. If I had to give up a blog, I'd much rather give up The 9th Frame.

So I'm thinking. There are several options.

A. I could open up The 9th Frame to guest authors. Maybe I could turn this into a political community of sorts, although I wouldn't have the time to write a lot of entries of my own.

B. I could freeze this blog and just start integrating some of The 9th Frame's content into The 7-10. The 7-10 is not known for short pieces. But it doesn't have to be that way. But then again, my writings at The 7-10 are not characterized by snark and attitude. I don't want that snark in The 7-10. Another problem is that The 7-10 is syndicated. It might go against the terms of agreement I signed if I start pumping out a bunch of one-paragraph long posts instead of the lengthier pieces I'm accustomed to writing there.

C. I could integrate pictures and multimedia elements into The 7-10 like I do here. That's currently a text-only blog, but it doesn't have to be. But I want it to be a content-rich and hassle-free blog that loads quickly and has the content that keeps readers coming back for more.

D. I could keep this blog as is, but update it far less frequently. Maybe I'd update it once a day. Maybe not. But now that this election is over, this blog has a much lower priority than The 7-10 does, especially in light of all the other stuff going on in my life right now (e.g., THIS PHD PROGRAM!!!).

E. I could shut the blog down and just pretend it never existed. The 7-10 would go on as it does now.

I will leave this as an open thread. It's been fun, but things need to change a bit. What do you think?

One last bit of snark

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 07:01:00 +0000

[ sarcasm ]

It sure feels good to be a part of the majority of Americans who hate America and want an unpatriotic terrorist sympathizer and avowed socialist to be their next president.

[ /sarcasm ]

Let's hope the next 4 years are more promising than the last 8.

About political prognosticators

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 05:57:00 +0000

I'm looking at the remaining tossups: Montana, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina. It looks like I might have called every state correctly in my final prediction on November 3. I predicted a 378-160 victory for Obama in the Electoral College. When checking the CNN political site, I found that the Billings area had not yet been counted in Montana, one of the counties in the Kansas City suburbs had not been counted in Missouri, Obama has a 50-49 lead in Indiana and a 50-49 lead in North Carolina with 99% of the precincts reporting.

I should have entered the Washington Post's prediction contest so I could win a free T-shirt.

Congratulations to President-Elect Obama and Joe Biden.

CNN is incredible

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 00:18:00 +0000

I am looking at Wolf Blitzer talking to correspondent Jessica Yellin. But she's not in the studio. She's a hologram. Absolutely incredible.

And political analyst Bill Schneider and Soledad O'Brien have a very interesting "virtual drawer" that displays exit poll information. Extremely comprehensive.

I like MSNBC's edginess when it comes to political coverage and I feel a personal bond with their analysts, but I have to say that CNN definitely has its act together.

Give Palin a break

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 18:34:00 +0000

Sarah Palin cast her vote this morning in Alaska. A reporter asked if she voted for convicted Republican Senator Ted Stevens. She said she would exercise her "right to privacy" and not tell anyone who she voted for.

Now, I am not a Palin supporter at all. I do not want her to be vice president. I have strong disagreements with her policy positions and lack of intellectual curiosity. But this is one instance where I think she is right to not have to announce who she voted for.

People want to see if she would either support a Republican who is guilty of corruption and risks contradicting her message of reform or if she would support a Democrat she might not agree with. Maybe she voted for Stevens. Maybe she didn't. It shouldn't matter. In the voting booth, we are all private citizens and shouldn't have to share these private choices with anyone.

More unpatriotic BS

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 03:47:00 +0000

Country music singer Hank Williams Jr. suggested that Obama doesn't like the national anthem at a recent Sarah Palin rally:

"You know, I'm usually at Monday Night Football tonight, but Colorado, this is a lot more important tonight. Join me now in our national--you know, that song that, uh, Mr. Obama's not real crazy about, we're singing it right now."

Palin did not say anything about the remarks when she took the microphone after Williams finished.

I am so sick of this BS. I sure hope that the people who believe this garbage rally behind Obama if he wins the election because, according to their own logic, they would be, uh, unpatriotic if they didn't. How unbelievably childish.

Who wants to be a Republican these days?

About classiness

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 16:41:00 +0000

One thing I've observed from watching Obama's rallies is this line he uses whenever the crowd starts booing (usually at the mention of Bush, Cheney, McCain, or Palin):

You don't need to boo. You just need to vote.

It's a very classy line showing a level of respect and decorum he wants to convey. Even if he doesn't win, I have to commend him for raising our level of political discourse. At the McCain-Palin rallies, these boos are allowed to continue. Obviously, there are knuckleheads at every rally regardless of political party, but to hear a candidate himself tell the crowd to stay classy is rare.

It signifies mature leadership.

More SNL funnies

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 16:26:00 +0000

I have to say, John McCain has a good sense of humor. I really wish this was the John McCain that was running this presidential campaign. I think he could be a genuinely likeable leader that voters would trust. But he tried to campaign like George W. Bush even though he's not George W. Bush.

Oh well.

McCain would be so much better for comedians than Obama, however.

Final prediction

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 13:02:00 +0000

My prediction: 378 Obama, 160 McCain

Obama will sweep every state north of the Ohio River and overperform in the South even if he doesn't flip any of the states there, aside from North Carolina. The Montana flip is based on Republican apathy in the event that the race gets called early for Obama on the East Coast. North Dakota is another state to watch, but it is in the Central Time Zone and maybe less susceptible to early blowout fatigue than Montana.

Why the small states matter

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 20:04:00 +0000

John McCain is spending a lot of time trying to snatch Pennsylvania from the Democrats. If he were to win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada, he would win 273 electoral votes.

But this is predicated on winning Montana and North Dakota. Both of those states are now considered toss-ups and have cheap media markets. If Obama is able to flip just one of these states, McCain would be absolutely required to hold Nevada.

In short, McCain has no margin for error at all. If this election becomes a nailbiter and McCain loses because he can't hold North Dakota...

Cheney endorses McCain

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 23:01:00 +0000

Thanks, but no thanks.

If Obama wins this election, being able to brand McCain as representing Bush's third term will be what did it. This endorsement plays right into Obama's campaign message. And Cheney is probably less popular than Bush is with the added benefit of reminding voters of Palin at the same time.

Somehow I don't think McCain was too happy to receive this endorsement three days before the election.

A state-by-state primer

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 16:16:00 +0000

MSNBC's First Read has your state by state election guide. Very impressive.

A precursor to banning abortion?

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 16:04:00 +0000

Proposition 8 is on the ballot in California. It seeks to overturn the state Supreme Court's ruling that allowed gay marriage. Proposition 8 would amend the California Constitution by redefining marriage as between one man and one woman.

Here's the problem. If Proposition 8 passes, exactly what would happen to the nearly 20,000 gay marriages that have already taken place? The LA Times has a piece examining the potential "legal nightmare." Do you instantly annul these marriages? And if so, do you refund any fees the applicants paid to the state? Do you keep those marriages intact and just forbid new ones? Who can be grandfathered into a gay marriage if Proposition 8 passes? How can a state take someone's rights away? And what if the state Supreme Court gets involved again and rules in favor of same sex couples?

Regardless of where you stand on the issue, this is an example of why it's not so easy to simply ban something you disagree with. I'm talking about gay marriage and abortion in particular. How do you punish violators? And who do you punish? Do you really want to tie up the courts with this? And do you think banning it will make it go away?

If Proposition 8 fails, "states-rights" conservatives won't be able to say much about it because the people will have spoken and they won't have "activist judges" to blame.

Don't go to bed early on election night because there are a whole bunch of interesting races and votes to watch

Cable news post-November 4

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 21:04:00 +0000

Here's a good article about the future of cable news after the election. Seems like McCain would be good for comedians and MSNBC while Obama would be good for talk radio and Fox News.

But which candidate would be best for the country?

Godless in North Carolina

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 19:25:00 +0000

Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan are in a serious knife fight in the North Carolina senate race. Dole implies in an ad that Hagan, a Sunday school teacher, is an atheist. Hagan responds harshly that the campaign should be about jobs and the economy, and not about "bearing false witness." Dole responds to the response by saying Hagan's faith doesn't matter and that the real issue is that Hagan went to a fundraiser sponsored by atheists and that Hagan took their money.

So really, it's all about religion. Again. So much for "no religious tests." I'm not an atheist, but I see nothing wrong with receiving their support. This phony Christianity is more offensive to me than anything an atheist has done. I hope Dole loses because this is classless.

Anyway, a collection of the ads is available at First Read.

More on that public funding promise

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 23:16:00 +0000

Voters simply don't care much about public financing of political campaigns. This is one reason why McCain's complaining about Obama's broken promise regarding accepting public funding has so little traction. I'm not saying Obama is wrong (because he was), but nobody cares. It's a forgivable sin. I'm not saying that's right, but that's the way it is.

Three unknowns (although there are more)

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 15:34:00 +0000

There are three unknowns that make polling particularly difficult this election:

1. The Black vote
2. The youth vote
3. The new vote

If voter turnout among Blacks is about 70%, I'd venture that Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and even Georgia have a solid chance of going blue. If it's considerably lower, then those states may stay red. Based on my own anecdotal conversations with Blacks in South Carolina, they are NOT staying home. This spells bad news for Roger Wicker of Mississippi, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, and Saxby Chambliss of Georgia.

What will happen with college students, new graduates, and high school seniors? If they want to be taken seriously as a voting bloc, they will need to turn out in disproportionately high numbers. If the first ever next-gen presidential candidate is unable get the under-30 crowd out, politicians will continue to ignore them.

How many of these newly registered voters will turn out? Obama and the Democrats have done a stellar job of flipping the registration rolls. Will they receive a huge return on their investment? Look at Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico in particular. Immigrants and Latinos make up a huge portion of these new voters. But registering a ton of voters doesn't mean anything if they don't get out and vote.

This election is a political scientist's dream.

Two very effective ads

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 16:36:00 +0000

That's a clean hit. And nobody can accuse Obama of hitting below the belt. That's how the Obama campaign should have gone after Palin from the beginning. Give her enough rope and let her hang herself. She may energize Republicans, but she also energizes Democrats. The problem for McCain is that there are far more Democrats than Republicans in the electorate this time around.

The McCain campaign recently came out with this strong ad:

Notice the word "yet" at the end. McCain should have run this ad back during the summer. If he had run an honorable campaign and embraced Obama while saying "he's not ready...yet," he would have been in a much better position. But instead, he made Obama look like the grownup in the room by throwing out those Britney Spears/Paris Hilton attacks and then getting bent out of shape over lipstick and whatnot. That made it look like McCain was the one who wasn't ready...yet.

Hillary Clinton lost by saying Obama wasn't ready. But if she said he wasn't ready "yet," she wouldn't have had to drive up her own negatives and push voters to Obama who were turned off by her attacks. Maybe it's too little too late for McCain, but it's a very good ad regardless.

About polls and selectivity

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 16:27:00 +0000

It's no secret that politicians who are trailing in the polls commonly say "the polls don't matter" or "the only poll that matters is the poll on Election Day." Fine.

But why is it that Republicans commonly say that "Sarah Palin is the most popular governor in the country" (a fact that's based on polls) and then totally dismiss the polls that show them trailing in national and battleground races?

Just wondering.

Rachel Maddow is awesome

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 01:12:00 +0000

I have to say that I have been considerably impressed by Rachel Maddow's new show at MSNBC. She just broke down the state of the presidential race by comparing it to football. She spent about 5 minutes explaining in simple terms how Obama had a better chance of winning with a field goal than McCain did with a Hail Mary pass. I hope to find the video soon.

Maddow's show is much more interesting than Keith Olbermann's. Unlike Olbermann, Maddow commonly invites Republican guests on her show and engages in intelligent debate with them. Her show is not a shoutfest.

Good move by MSNBC. Rachel airs at 9. Check her out.

Kids rocking the vote

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 00:52:00 +0000

I love it when people are informed voters. So it fills me with great pride to see kids and teenagers able to articulate the differences between the candidates the way the 6th and 7th graders at the Ron Clark Academy did when they created this rap and performed it on CNN.

Now, if a group of 12- and 13-year olds can tell you the differences between Obama and McCain, there's no excuse for grown-ups to not be able to do so. Why are so many people still undecided at this late stage anyway?

Divided government is overrated

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 20:28:00 +0000

Michelle Cottle of The New Republic has a very well written analysis of why divided government stinks. When you have an unpopular president and a Congress led by the opposition, there will be many opportunities for gridlock and power grabs. Consider the current Bush presidency. The nation is essentially leaderless now because Bush is ineffective and the Democrats in Congress don't have large enough majorities to get their agenda through. It does not look like McCain will win the popular vote, so it's hard to see how a President McCain would be in a better situation than Herbert Hoover or Jimmy Carter.

The bluing of the map

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:09:00 +0000

According to Politico, the GOP is having to buy ads in Montana and West Virginia because they're worried about a big blue wave washing Republicans out to sea. Think about that for a second. Montana and West Virginia. Montana and West Virginia! In late October! Who would have thought that the hippies, communists, Blacks, and liberal elitists were alive and well in Cut Bank, Wheeling, and Helena?

It looks like the Republican brand is becoming more and more tarnished. And the party that has decided it is the party of "real Americans" based on campaign rhetoric is now becoming the party on its way to minority status.

Obama wins! (batteries not included)

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Palmer, Ph.D.) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 20:50:00 +0000

The New Mexico Sun News, a biweekly paper, declared Obama the winner of the election a week before Election Day. Here's their editors' justification:

"When it comes to calling the winner of a presidential election, everyone wants to be first. The New Mexico Sun News hereby claims that achievement."

What a stupid move. The Sun is an alternative liberal newspaper, but that doesn't justify it. It's not professional, it reeks of poor ethics, and it gives their nemesis (McCain-Palin) a new talking point that they could spin to make it sound like Obama is giving premature victory laps.

Again, after Tony Rezko, Jeremiah Wright, Jesse Jackson, and Joe Biden on occasion, with friends like these, who needs enemies?