The Official Scorer

Announcement

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 17:27:00 +0000

This blog is no longer just going to be about baseball and, more specifically, the Yankees. I am going to write about whatever piques my interest from now on. This means that, in the end, there will still be baseball posts, because baseball is always piquing my interest. However, I will be writing on other subjects as well. I'm keeping the name the same, as I think The Official Scorer as an image transcends sports, and helps fuel my ego-maniacal desire for my opinion to mean something to the rest of the world. Labeling myself as "official" at least creates the illusion for me, and helps me sleep at night.

This announcement will undoubtedly reverberate through the vast annuls of cyberspace, considering I get an average of about 2-3 page views per day. Really, though, I'm posting more as an archiving measure, so people can look back and see when things at this scattered corner of the Internet changed. In my dream scenario this blog will become: a)constantly updated and b) a hotbed for relevant and thought-provoking discussion of a myriad of things that interest me, so hopefully this shift is a step in that direction.

The Five Best Hot Stove Moves: Oct. 30-Today

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 19:54:00 +0000

We’re almost at the one-month watermark of the 2008 Hot Stove season, so there are some preliminary results available to try and gauge the successes and failures that have already occurred. This first installment will presumably be the thinnest on exciting trades and signings to obsess over, although activity has certainly picked up in the last week, and doesn’t seem ready to slow down until February. Without any further ado, time for my list:

5. Kansas City Royals Acquired OF Coco Crisp from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for RHP Ramon Ramirez.

I like this move for both teams, but more than anything I like the ideas Dayton Moore is throwing out there so far about rebuilding his team. He has been dealing, to me, the most combustible and unpredictable assets in the baseball market, relief pitchers, in order to fill needs on offense. Granted, he’s not getting overwhelming offensive talent in return—no one is confusing Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs with Rickey Henderson and Mark McGwire, and K.C. fans (like this one over at Royals Review) are acknowledging that it’s a welcomed change but not a definitely-effective change. But, Crisp represents a great defensive center fielder that has the pedigree of a true leadoff hitter. Those are two qualities that none of the other outfielders on the Royals’ roster possess: Joey Gathright is fast but can’t hit a lick, DeJesus can hit but isn’t fast, below average defensively in center and not a true leadoff guy. Will this mean the Royals’ offense will be better in 2009? Maybe not, but it gives manager Trey Hillman more proven major league pieces to lean on. As for Boston, their middle relief was somewhat in tatters last season until Justin Masterson emerged, and since there are rumblings of stretching Masterson into a starter this was an area that GM Theo Epstein clearly had to address. In getting Ramon Ramirez he acquires arguably one of 2008’s best AL set-up men for an extra piece, but he also takes the risk of handing the CF/leadoff hitter job over to Jacoby Ellsbury, who underperformed expectations in 2008. It’s a logical move, though, considering Ellsbury is so many years younger and so many dollars cheaper to keep around than Coco. There is also risk in the fact that Ramirez’s performance may have peaked in 2008, and pitching in the unfriendly confines of Fenway against AL East lineups on a more regular basis may cause a spike in his ERA and stress levels in 2009. Still, more relievers like Ramirez means fewer Mike Timlin Sightings for the Sox in the coming season.

4. Colorado Rockies Acquired RHP Huston Street, LHP Greg Smith and OF Carlos Gonzalez from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for OF Matt Holliday

I looked at this trade in-depth as it happened a few weeks ago, and I still think the real victor through all this is the Rockies. There was much indecision (like Keith Law in this blog post) about how to score this deal for the Rockies. Most cite what they’ll ultimately do with Huston Street or the other 2 players received as the reason to grade this as Incomplete/Undecided, but to me that scenario alone is why I give the advantage to Colorado. The possibility of still finding a market for any of the three players again this winter gives Dan O’Dowd more flexibility and more chips useful in reorganizing a squad that made the World Series 2 years ago. On the other hand, the A’s and their ultra-wacky-eccentric-genius GM Billy Beane could hypothetically turn around and trade Matt Holliday again this winter, but no such speculation has emerged. Plus, I don’t know how the market would respond considering Holliday is truly a 1-year rental—suffice is to say that Beane would not get as much back for Holliday this winter as he paid. And, considering how run-starved the A’s were in ’08, acquiring Holliday makes immediate superficial sense. Looking deeper, though, Beane’s motives get a little murkier. Is he banking on some added pop in the middle of a pretty limp lineup, which he’ll transform this winter with further moves and signings? Or is he banking on his team still floundering in ’09, therefore trying to parlay some pieces that had lost their luster in his eyes into a shiny toy that can be exchanged (say, around July 31st) for yet more new pup prospects?

As it stands now, the ability to land a proven-to-be-adequate reliever, an extremely high-upside yet so far underperforming neophyte outfielder and a serviceable young lefty starter (whose stock drops since he’s coming off an injury and a not-great rookie year) for a player guaranteed to not resign with Colorado after ‘09 stands as a great achievement. I don’t think that they would have received as valuable a package, both in terms of immediate usability and potential for further flipping, from any other team in the running for Holliday’s services.

3. Florida Marlins Acquired RHP Jose Ceda from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for RHP Kevin Gregg

It’s been a Jekyll and Hyde performance for the Marlins so far this winter. An honorable mention for this list is due for their pick-up of reliever Leo Nunez from the Royals. In that trade, they successfully shed the dreadful no-walks, no-defense, soon-to-be-overpaid-because-of-his-power Mike Jacobs. I score that one out of the top 5 due to the relative ineffectiveness of only acquiring a relief pitcher in exchange for a power hitting first baseman—but then again, Mike Jacobs is pretty low on the totem pole of power hitting first baseman. Hence, a normally bad move for both teams becomes a slightly better move for the Fish. This trade, however, is their real coup so far. Kevin Gregg had been their closer during their period of surprising early-season success (43-39 through June, virtually the same record as the Yankees, who spent approximately $187 million more dollars on their roster), and he did a serviceable job. For the first half of 2008, his line was quite impressive—but the second half, not so much, as he dealt with a knee injury. Now, the Cubs undoubtedly wanted a proven relief pitcher with the departure of Kerry Wood, as it appears (unless they sign one) Carlos Marmol becomes their closer. But what I don’t get is how Kevin Gregg, due to make over $4 million in arbitration, is more valuable than a young, hard-throwing reliever who is both cheaper and projects better? In fact, Jose Ceda is a guy that Jim Hendry refused to trade for Brian Roberts during the Cubs/Orioles never-ending flirtation last winter; he was even referred to as “untouchable”! His year in the minors was mixed, featuring a good performance in AA but a mixed bag in high-A—for a reliever, he is still very young and his arm is still very lively. The Marlins in effect replace a decent but overpaid reliever with a cheaper, younger, more electric arm. Gregg moves from the pitcher-friendly cavern that is Dolphins Stadium to the wind-ravaged bandbox Wrigley. The Cubs will be glad to have him in their ‘pen, but the Marlins will be just as glad to get something of value for him and also not have to pay him. I think the Marlins get a great return on investment in this deal, especially in comparison to their next deal where, eh, not so much…

2. Washington Nationals Acquired LHP Scott Olsen and OF Josh Willingham from the Marlins in exchange for INF Emilio Bonifacio, RHP P.J. Dean and INF Jake Smolinski

This is a great move for the Nationals, which is rarely if ever been uttered in regards to their much-maligned, Segway-riding buffoon of a general manager, Snake-Oil-Salesman Jim Bowden. The Nats seem like a sure-fire candidate for a team reaping the benefits of a new stadium and ready to try and make a leap into spending more money and fielding a more competitive squad. There has been speculation that they will be targeting any of Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn or (gulp) Jason Giambi, so this move a precursor to the franchise’s attempt to run with the big boys this winter. It’s a solid one, as Olsen and Willingham at least slightly improve the team’s two most glaring weaknesses from 2008: their Odalis Perez and Tim Redding-heavy starting rotation and their woeful Cristian Guzman-led offense. For the Marlins, this is a garden variety salary dump, as Olsen and Willingham (along with the recently-departed Mike Jacobs) were due raises through arbitration this winter. Their return looks extremely underwhelming, as Bonifacio is an ADNO (All Defense No Offense) guy that probably ends up a bench player in the majors, and the other two prospects don’t really jump off any charts as blue-chippers or keepers. For Bowden, he has a contingency plan in place if he can’t manage to swindle any of those free agent hitters, and he’s got a starter who seems poised to continue to improve on the mound and will be, if nothing else, above average…which considering the Nats' rotation last year, is a huge plus.

1. New York Yankees Acquired INF/OF Nick Swisher and RHP Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for INF Wilson Betemit and RHPs Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez

Nick Swisher had a terrible year with the White Sox in 2008, that much is a certainty by looking at his stat line (the .219 BA is unavoidable, even though no one takes BA seriously anymore). However, he had a couple of good-not-great years prior to that, and he seems as though he’s got a solid identity as a plus OBP/patience guy at the plate and an average-to-slightly-above-average defender (at least everywhere but center field). On the flip side, Wilson Betemit was mentioned by Brian Cashman as someone who could replace A-Rod at 3rd if he left the team after the 2007 season. He then proceeded to transform himself into the human strike out machine from the right side of the plate, seemingly killing his identity as a supposed “switch hitter”. As a lefty, he can hit some balls out of the yard and drive the gaps once in a while, but his swing is Great Wall of China-long from both sides and he does a terrible job recognizing off-speed pitches, particularly change-ups. For some reason the Yankees thought he’d make a good first baseman this year and played him there numerous times, to little positive effect offensively or defensively. His best position is probably 3rd, and apparently Kenny Williams envisions him being useful there as a safety net in case Josh Fields or Dayan Viciedo are not ready for prime time in ’09. Through that prism, as well as the money saved (and now relocated to signing Viciedo) by dealing Swisher, Betemit’s value to the Sox makes sense. For the Yankees, a position player for $22 million over 3 years is like chump change considering what they’re dishing out for their core offensive guys. And, the competent flexibility it gives them heading into the heart of the Hot Stove will be an extremely valuable bargaining chip.

First, apparently Swisher and Sabathia are friends, which always helps in recruiting (LeBron James can’t be expected to do it all, can he?). Second, Cashman can already tell the prospective free agent pitchers that he’s upgraded the offense and defense for 2009 by landing Swisher—even if they’re unimpressed by his down year in ’09, they’ll recognize Swisher’s name and probably remember him making fun of them or joking with them at some point in their careers, so it adds a little “hey maybe New York will be fun” idea to the back of their heads (as if it will be fun when they see their face plastered across the back page of the Post with the word BUM involved after a poor start). Finally, once Cashman lands his pitcher or pitchers, if Mark Teixeira hasn’t signed a contract, he can give good-old Scott Boras a call and check in, wondering out loud if there’s any chance Mark has now lowered his contract sights. Cashman has the leverage to not get sucked up into a gross bidding war between a few teams, as he can always fall back on Swisher and any other bats he may acquire through trades this winter. Plus, the Yankees offense in 2008 would not have been as bad were it not for an inordinate amount of injury and underperformance. So, all in all, I think this one is a slam-dunk for the Yankees. Swisher will benefit greatly from swinging to the short porch in right, and I think his patience and power will do a good job of replacing some of the walks and patience that are signing with other teams in the form of Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi. Defensively, he’s immediately better than both of those players in each of their positions. As for the other players involved, Jeffrey Marquez is so low on the Yankees’ pitching prospect totem pole at this point that he’s best suited for a new start in another organization. And, swapping Jhonny Nunez for a non-hitting Texeira seems like a wash-out. Big time advantage for the Bronx Bombers on this one, but the move will ultimately judged for both teams on what else happens this offseason.

Yesterday's Other Deal

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 19:50:00 +0000

The Washington Nationals and Florida Marlins orchestrated an inter-division deal yesterday, an opening salvo for two teams that could look a lot different come March. Florida sent Josh Willingham and Scott "Don't Tase Me, Bro" Olsen to the Nats in exchange for infielder Emilio Bonifacio and two low-level prospects, second baseman Jake Smolinski and right-handed pitcher P.J. Dean.

The Nats fill two needs: someone who may, possibly, drive in some runs. And, someone who isn't a total retread who can make some quality big league starts.

The Marlins...apparently they once again need to reduce salary? I don't get it, aren't they still trying to get a new stadium at some point? So now in 2 weeks since all the wheeling and dealing has begun, they've unloaded Mike Jacobs, Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen, and in return gotten exactly one hill of beans (to be fair, Leo Nunez should be a useful reliever. Then again, to be fairer, it's totally asinine to trade a power-hitting first baseman for a reliever). All this to avoid the arbitration raises that all three guys are due for as a result of actually performing somewhat decently in their careers. Yikes.

For the Nats I think the deal makes a lot of sense, but they are adding another huge injury question mark to their offensive mix that includes the likes of Nick Johnson (38 games, apparently now trade bait), Elijah Dukes (81 games), Wily Mo Pena (64 games) and Austin Kearns (86 games). Willingham has never been a huge bat but he is serviceable, and I guess Jim Bowden's idea is to accumulate as many OFers who have talent but are always hurt and see who of the bunch can stick. It would be one of the first ideas that Bowden ever had.

Olsen's inclusion is the real coup for the Nats, and the real head-scratcher for the Fish. They play in a pitcher's park in Florida, and Olsen had a decent year in 2008, albeit an up-and-down one. But, according to this Keith Law post, he regained some of his velocity (he is a post-TJ guy) late in the season and his performance ticked up a bit. Law still finds problems with Olsen, but wouldn't this be the kind of guy the Marlins would hold on to in the off-chance that he might pitch even better early in 2009, thus making him even more valuable in a trade? Yes, you run the risk of him either pitching terribly or getting hurt or something along those lines. But I don't buy the argument that this is selling high on Scott Olsen, who is supposedly healthy and over his "personal demons" for the first time in a while. Granted, he never projected to be Mr. #1 Ace Type, but I still think you can get more value than what the Marlins got for an effective lefty starter.

This trade lands decisively in the advantage: Nationals column. I am interested to see if the Fish get more of a return on their other supposedly available commodities, reliever Kevin Gregg and outfielder Jeremy Hermida. If not, it is going to be a cellar-dwelling 2009 for the Marlins. As for Washington, I don't know if this trade means they are done trying to upgrade the offense and are no longer in the Mark Teixeira Sweepstakes, but only time will tell on that front.

Inside the Holliday Trade (Preliminary Edition)

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 19:42:00 +0000

So the earlier-discussed Matt Holliday trade has been somewhat clarified a day later, albeit with uncertainty still clouding the deal’s finalized specifics. The principals that have emerged going from Oakland to Colorado are the aforementioned Greg Smith, along with highly-touted outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and former Rookie of the Year turned flamed-out closer Huston Street.

As it stands, I think the deal makes sense for both teams, but I think there is a lot more risk from Billy Beane’s standpoint. Street was expendable after other (really, cheaper) internal options emerged for the back-end of the bullpen (see: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, and Santiago Casilla). However, he is a proven closer who struggled at points last year, lost his closer’s job, yet still ended up having a decent overall season out of the ‘pen. The risk in including him for Holliday, to me, is that you’re not maximizing his value. Street seems like the kind of player that this offseason could have netted Beane one of his 2-or-3-deep prospect platters that he’s consumed so eagerly since last winter. Instead, Beane had to combine Street with a terrible sell-low mistake/inexplicable “Billy Beane donating to the 2009 Rockies’ Chances” charity case: Carlos Gonzalez.

Gonzalez floundered badly in his debut in Oakland, putting up a putrid 100-points-lower-than-league-average .634 OPS in 300+ plate appearances. So, basically he never walked and he showed only doubles power, albeit in his first taste of big-league action. But, keep in mind he did this all while 22 and while calling home the notoriously-cavernous McAfee Coliseum in Oakland. Also keep in mind that he’s been fitted for that heavy label of a “five-tool” talent. With that said, I think this is the lowest possible point to sell him, and his prospects for 2009 can only improve with a move to Coors Field and the awful NL West.

From the Rockies perspective, I score this as a good haul with a still-TBD final verdict. Today there is speculation that they will spin Huston Street to another team, which in theory makes sense as a result of the presence of Manny Corpas and Taylor Buchholz as cheaper closer alternatives. There is also a big market for closers this winter, so perhaps a team that doesn’t want to pay the price on a hefty free agent like K-Rod would be hungry for Huston Street in exchange for prospects (one such logical match could be the Detroit Tigers, another could be the Milwaukee Brewers. Ken Rosenthal says the Indians are asking about him, apparently not impressed by Jensen Lewis' performance late in the year).

Even if they keep Street, though, the deal makes sense for Colorado. Holliday’s ship had sailed and he was getting dealt sooner or later. In this trade, they get 3 pieces that they can immediately use at the major league level in 2009. Yes, the Rockies have a lot of outfield talent in the minors (Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith) and still have Brad Hawpe, Wily Taveras and Ryan Spillborghs under contract even after removing Holliday. While that may sound like a glut, it isn’t, considering Tavares and Spillborghs have no business playing every day, and you can’t hand Smith or Fowler a guaranteed major league job to start 2009. Adding Gonzalez gives you another high-upside option that may flourish and earn the right to play all year in CF or RF, or may find himself plugging away for the Sky Sox while someone else gets a chance.

In Smith they have a serviceable fourth or fifth starter who is left handed and very cheap, which is an appealing commodity in today’s game. Starting pitching is what the Rox need if they’re going to improve, and adding Smith to the equation can’t really stunt their progress on that front, although it is by no means any sort of coup. Add that to the fact that they are still shopping Garret Atkins and Wily Taveras presumably in exchange for pitching, and I think this looks like it could be a successful reloading offseason for Dan O’Dowd (even though I expect him to get very little for Taveras, Atkins should fetch something useful).

Beane is rolling the dice on getting one really good year out of a hitter with noticeable-but-not-terrible Coors Field/away splits that is moving to a pitcher’s park. Oakland, too, has a surplus of young outfielders, but I think Gonzalez was the most valuable trade chip and had the most potential to breakout in 2009. The offensive gain that Beane is paying for for 2009 may well be undone once 2010 rolls around, unless Travis Buck or Ryan Sweeney make The Leap. Street, to me, could have netted Beane more of a return in a separate deal considering the fact that teams want closers, especially budget-conscious teams. With all that considered, I think this one scores as advantage: Rockies.

Matt Holliday Traded to Oakland

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 19:39:00 +0000

Hopes to bring face-plant sliding techniques to the Bay Area. Billy Beane already rumored to be shopping him now in advance of the July 31 2009 deadline.

In a move that seems completely out of left field (no pun intended), the Oakland Athletics are about to acquire Colorado Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday. The return for Colorado has not yet been announced, but Billy Beane has certainly stockpiled young talent recently via trades. So, it is conceivable that this move didn't put much of a dent in the A's surplus of young talent. The first name to emerge in early reports is Greg Smith, a lefty who made 32 starts for the A's last year and posted a decent (7-16, 4.16 ERA 169 hits in 190 IP, 111::87 K::BB, 1.35 WHIP) rookie campaign, although walking way too many people and giving up 21 home runs (which would translate terribly to Coors Field).

This removes one of the biggest names of the offseason's trade market very early in the game. It has also completely ruined Bill Madden's stupid Fantasy Baseball lineup for the 2009 Yankees already, a mere week deep into the offseason! The idea of the Yankees being hot for Holliday was flawed from the start, considering they refused to trade prospects and sign a huge extension to land that guy who now pitches for the Mets. Holliday would have required the same type of scenario, or he would have been a one-year rental, something the Yankees don't do.

So, from the Bronx perspective, this should be a non-story, although you can guarantee the local media will spin it as Brian Cashman being too slow to act and getting out-maneuvered by that genius Billy Beane. At least, that's what I'm predicting now before any stories are written. I'll be sure to update this post when the specifics are finalized.

Bird Bash?

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:23:00 +0000

Games 128-130
@ Baltimore Orioles

Pitching Match-ups

Tonight, Friday August 22
Mike Mussina (16-7, 3.35) vs. Radhames Liz (4-3, 7.47)

Saturday, August 23
Carl Pavano (0-0, 0.00) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (10-6, 3.15)

Sunday, August 24
Darrell Rasner (5-9, 4.93) vs. Daniel Cabrera (8-8, 4.98)

Series Analysis

So now the Yankees are in the precarious position of absolutely having to sweep the Baltimore Orioles this weekend in order to stay afloat. In New York, the Yankees have vanished from the back pages of the tabloids, which have mostly buried the team and turned their attention towards the Olympics and the Mets. The Post has engraved the tombstone and started the countdown until the Yankees are eliminated from playoff contention. And so the season has come and gone for the Yankees in the eyes of the daily papers and their lowest common denominator pandering. Still, there is a lot yet to be determined, and one of those things is if the Yankees are really totally dead or not. They have 1 and three-quarters feet in the grave, no doubt about it, but I think the series coming up against Boston, and what position the team is in when they start that series, is when you decide if the season is dead or not.

But, like I said, they pretty much need a sweep this weekend in Baltimore. They have to face two pitchers that have absolutely shut their offense down this year in Jeremy Guthrie and Daniel Cabrera, and they are subjecting themselves to a circus-like atmosphere by starting Carl Pavano on Saturday night. A sweep is not going to be easy to come by because of those factors. Any mis-steps by Yankees starting pitching will mean sure doom considering their offense has a glass jaw on par with a terrible team completely out of the race and playing out the stretch run in September. Meaning, they pack it in as soon as they fall behind by more than a run or two. Any four or five run deficit is insurmountable for this group of overpaid, underachieving, and aging one-time superstars.

So the weight of the “Yankees Universe” will fall on the shoulders of The Moose tonight in the park where he made his name. He’ll need to provide some sanity, and the offense will have to tattoo an erratic rookie, in order to set the stage for the return of the Plastic Pitcher.

My prediction for Saturday, I mean, I can’t even begin to predict that game. Pavano could come out and completely lay an egg and I wouldn’t be one bit surprised. He could throw a game like he threw on Opening Day 2007 when he gave up some runs but kept the game close into the 5th inning and gave way to the bullpen. He could also throw 6 or 7 shutout innings, and I wouldn’t be surprised. Nothing can ever surprise a Yankees fans anymore when it comes to Carl Pavano—he has re-written the book on surprising a fan base. And Guthrie is the Orioles’ best starter hands down, and he has pitched well against the Yankees in each of his starts against them this year. This to me is the hardest game of the series to predict a Yankees victory in. But, this year has been so bizarre that anything is possible—it’s not like the Orioles are a great team, but they have killed Yankees pitching all year, and I don’t see Pavano bucking that trend.

Sunday’s game could potentially be a high scoring one if the Yankees figure out how to hit Daniel Cabrera, a secret that the 13 other teams in the AL have picked up on this year. That combined with Rasner coming off an out-of-his-mind start against the Jays that I doubt he will recreate, means there should be some runs scored. The Yankees have not won many slugfests, but Camden Yards has been a friendly confines to them for many years, so I am guessing they end up taking 2 out of 3 in this series, winning tonight and Sunday.

Some random notes before I sign off for tonight.

--I am actually going to the Mets/Astros game tonight, in an effort to get there one last time before they turn the place into a parking lot, and because I need to see an actual baseball team that plays in New York in person (joking). It’s a great pitching match-up between Johan and Roy Oswalt, so I’m hoping for a great game. I still don’t regret not trading for and signing Santana, even as more and more fans clamor that the Yankees will end up paying more for Sabathia this offseason than they would have ended up paying for Santana. Those idiot fans don’t realize that they won’t have to both trade for AND sign Sabathia, though. Those same fans, however, have already decided that Phil Hughes is washed up and will never amount to anything so they should have just traded him last year.

--Speaking of the much-maligned Phil Hughes, he pitches again for Scranton/Wilkes Barre tonight. I will be curious to see if he overcomes his self-described dead arm and pitches more like he was in his first few rehab starts, as opposed to his outing last Sunday. A good performance by Phil and a poor one by Pavano on Saturday would increase some pressure to pull the plug on Carl’s starting gig and give Phil a shot. No concept of what the team’s leash will be like with Pavano, and I would be appalled if they gave him respect and actually ran him out there regardless of if he stinks it up or not.

I’ll be watching the out of town scoreboard from my seats at Shea tonight and hoping to see some crooked numbers next to NYY. Hopefully, there won’t be any crooked numbers popping up next to the BAL portion of the scoreboard.

Prognosis: Pavano

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:42:00 +0000

Nothing has been made official as of yet, but it is looking like Carl Pavano will be the team’s choice to start Saturday night’s game in Baltimore. It seemed like his candidacy was in doubt when the Post’s George King, the man who has most reviled Pavano during his time as a complete waste of the Yankees’ money and dubbed him the “American Idle”, broke this story about Carl suffering from a stiff neck the day after his Sunday start in Trenton.

He skipped his bullpen session on Tuesday, which seemed to be another red flag. Was Pavano again asking out of major league duty due to a mysterious injury?

It would appear, however, that the severity of his stiff neck and his skipping a bullpen have been clarified. Not just by GM Brian Cashman’s quotes that he was “fine” and was experiencing normal stiffness. No, Carl Pavano declared himself ready, as hard as this may be to believe, through his actions, namely walking up the mound and throwing in Trenton on Wednesday. He threw a bullpen that was described in this story as being “perfect” by Trenton’s pitching coach. I can only speculate what his definition of perfect is: perfect because Carl didn’t tweak his left ear while compensating for his stiff neck? Perfect because Carl showed up not reeking of booze from an all-night binge session of boozing and shacking up with a random New Jersey floozy? Perfect because he didn’t crash his Lamborghini on the way to the ballpark and break every bone in his pitching hand?

All jokes aside, Carl is currently the hands-down best choice for Saturday’s start. Considering Phil Hughes’ struggles in his recent Scranton outing and, well, the other choice being Victor Zambrano, I’d much rather see what Carl has to offer. For some reason a rotation that includes Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner and Victor Zambrano seems like it should be featured in the International League playoff race, not the American League Wild Card chase.

My perception of Crash-Test Dummy Carl, however, is a little different even in spite of all those “injuries” and all those frustrating days spent doing something other than pitching for my team. The few moments he’s been healthy in his career, he hasn’t been a terrible pitcher. So the question will be how his still-recovering pitching arm and arsenal will adjust to again facing major leaguers on Saturday. Baltimore has an extremely potent offense, so it will be an extremely tough test for Pavano. My guess is he will have a short leash, both in Saturday’s game and in general in terms of having a rotation spot. No string of good starts can really erase the 3 years of unbelievable frustration he caused, but it really will be must-see television when he toes the rubber in Camden Yards Saturday night.

I don’t mean to draw undeserved and unnecessary levels of attention to one game, because honestly it may not mean anything in the long run of the season. The game’s importance and Carl’s potential impact on the season will first and foremost depend on what happens over the next two games.

The Yankees are facing one of their (and the entire American League’s) biggest antagonists this season in Roy Halladay, and they have been awful in the first games of series all year long, so Friday in Baltimore is no sure thing, even if the O’s are throwing an erratic and hittable young starter. That could get balanced out since Friday’s starter for the Yankees, The Moose, has been knocked around by his former team this year. Granted, most Yankees starting pitchers have gotten knocked around by the Orioles this year, but hopefully that trend ends in Charm City this weekend.

So, by the time Carl takes the mound on Saturday, a lot of bad could be swirling around the team…and I don’t know how that is a good environment for one of the central harbingers of Yankees fans’ sorrows in recent years to make his triumphant return. But, then again, a lot of good could have happened once Pavano returns. A win tonight against Halladay would be a dream come true considering how easily he’s throttled the Bronx “Bombers” this year. That, following the tidy, clean win last night would be the perfect way to erase the bad taste left from Tuesday night’s fiasco, and it would give the team a lot of confidence as they head south to a ballpark where, historically, they’ve hit well and won a lot of games.

I’m excited by this wondrously bizarre development, but I can’t really get myself to focus totally on it until I see some more good results tonight and tomorrow. Suffice is to say, I’ve circled Saturday in red on my calendar.

Whistling Past the Graveyard

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:03:00 +0000

After last night’s game, I am ready to officially announce that I have no hope left for the Yankees putting together a streak of out-of-their-minds baseball that will vault them into the 2008 playoffs. It is not going to happen. I drew up a 5-point plan for making it happen eight days ago, and that plan has somewhat come to fruition: Melky got demoted, Matsui had a clean rehab and returned to the lineup. Hughes, however, did not excel at Scranton and may end up staying there through this weekend, so I was wrong about that one. Chamberlain is trying to come back, but it is extremely unclear when his return will happen, if at all.

The fifth point, though, is the problem:

“Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter's offensive games come alive, and with the re-insertion of Matsui, the lineup consistently performs to the level that they were expected to coming in to the season.”

Jeter and Cano’s bats have looked a little livelier of late, but The Big G is just an abomination. It has gotten to the point where he is literally only good for one of the three true outcomes in each of his at-bats: a walk, a strikeout or a homerun. Regardless of the statistical analysis camps that will claim that these types of players are useful and helpful for offenses, having this version of Jason Giambi as the #5 hitter in the lineup is doing absolutely nothing for the Yankees.

Last night’s game was lost by Johnny Damon’s inability to remember how to play center field. However, more games this season have been lost thanks to major failures by his buddy The Giambino in situations hitting with men on base. The fact that he has remained implanted in the lineup, consistently hitting right behind A-Rod no less, boggles my mind. Yes, there was one month of this season when Giambi was killing the ball to all fields—but those days have quickly vanished, replaced by his pull-happy “swing for the fences” mental approach to hitting. Kevin Long has been quoted before saying that he tells Jason all the time to hit to left field, but for whatever reason he just simply can’t do it.

Giambi is synonymous with the entire 2008 team. They both have had limited moments of success this year, but neither have come close to sustaining them. They have had a ton of opportunities to produce runs in ways that aren’t home runs, and yet they can never get it done on any type of consistent basis. Defensively neither has been very good, but the defense has not cost them as many games as the poor offense. Thankfully, they will no longer be around once the calendar hits October.

It’s funny, Giambi came to New York talking a big talk about wanting to win a championship, loving the Yankees tradition, etc. Yet he has never changed his game to win a championship. He couldn’t adjust to being a DH, even though he gets paid tens of millions (now twenties of millions) of dollars a year to basically do what the Yankees need him to do to help them. He brought the BALCO baggage with him but at least handled that media firestorm carefully and decently. As a result of his BALCO baggage, he has been on the DL or banged up or somehow incapacitated for most of his time in pinstripes.

And, of course, the team hasn’t won anything in the life of his 7 year deal. That World Series in 2003, the only one he (hopefully) will ever be a part of, he was mysteriously out of the lineup to start Game 5 with some type of phantom injury, even though it was oh, the WORLD SERIES and the Yankees were coming off a heartbreaking extra-inning loss in Game 4. Not to mention he was one of their biggest offensive players that year (that game somehow had Giambi AND Alfonso Soriano out of the lineup, by the way).

Of course, in that game he pinch hits and hits a meaningless home run in the 9th inning, so apparently he wasn’t hurt badly enough to not be able to jack a meaningless home run out of the park.

That kind of thing will be what I remember of The Jason Giambi Era—meaningless home runs that don’t provide much beyond letting Jason pose and still have the numbers that make him out to be a dangerous power hitter. Really, he is a selfish player who made zero adjustments or sacrifices for this team in his 7 years with the Yankees. This year the coaching staff put all their faith behind Giambi being able to stay healthy and play first and be a middle of the order hitter.

He’s stayed healthy, he’s played first…but he hasn’t rewarded the Yankees’ faith with any real production. All in all, a bad case of misplaced faith in The Great Giambino, a Yankee that will not be missed when he’s in another team’s uniform come 2009.

Dropping the Ball

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:18:00 +0000

There are a lot of words that come to mind when trying to describe what I just witnessed for the last two and a half hours. I’ll start with the pleasantries and build to the darker matters, because I like to lead with the good and finish with the bad, for no reason in particular.

It was a great pitchers’ duel, something I did not expect in the least if the Yankees were going to end up losing. To me, this was the type of game with a lopsided Yankees loss written all over it, more so than a gritty, nail-biting heartbreaker decided in the final inning. But Darrell Rasner outperformed any sane person’s expectations and threw an absolute gem. He got through 6.2 innings giving up only 3 hits and 1 run and departed with the game tied at 1, hoping his team would scratch something across against A.J. Burnett or the Jays’ bullpen.

Okay, so…other good news from this game:...

…..Hideki Matsui came back?

Where to begin on the negatives. Might as well start in inning #1: I figured that Johnny Damon’s defense would hurt the team when the merry-go-round on the basepaths began, and runners were going from 1st to 3rd and scoring from 2nd on singles to center. I did not worry about Johnny’s ability to catch the ball when hit his way. After all, he played center for his entire career leading up to this year. But in the first inning, he dropped a routine fly ball hit by Alex Rios that put runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. Rasner amazingly got out of the jam, but the Yankees had just taken a lead on Burnett and gave their back of the rotation starter some breathing room. To immediately force him to unnecessarily work that hard in the 1st inning was a sure-fire bad sign.

From there on, it was the A.J. Burnett vs. Darrell Rasner Show. It is hard to tell the difference between the Yankees offense struggling and the opposing pitcher being on top of his game. Regardless, for some reason the rest of the league has been able to get to A.J. Burnett. The Yankees, however, can not touch the guy. Jason Giambi, A-Rod, Johnny Damon, they all looked completely overmatched in their at-bats against Burnett. Giambi has been particularly dreadful regardless of his grand slam against Kansas City. He got 1 hit in that entire series, which happened to be that homer, and tonight he struck out a whopping 4 times, including twice with runners in scoring position.

To be shut down again and again by one pitcher makes me question the Yankees’ hitters ability to adjust and determination to overcome adversity. Those are two things that this year’s team seems to completely lack. If a pitcher is said to “have their number” this year, he keeps that number and exploits the team’s hitters again and again. You can look to Josh Beckett, Burnett, Oliver Perez, and Daniel Cabrera for good examples of this. Yet, only one of those guys is what you would call a legitimate “ace” pitcher (Beckett).

Adversity, well that has sunk the Yankees’ chances in many games this year. Unless they are in complete control of a game this year, it has been near impossible for the team to suck it up and fight back, or deal with any random things that go wrong in the course of 9 innings or more.

Johnny Damon dropping an unfathomable second fly ball in the bottom of the 8th inning, costing his team a run, is some serious adversity. How does the team respond in the top of the 9th? By having a leadoff single by A-Rod turn into a 3-6 put-out while Alex was trying to turn a single into a double. The play was made by an outstanding Overbay hustle effort, but Alex could have played it safe and remained at first knowing that it meant the tying run would be on and some good hitters (allegedly) were following him.

Then again, Jason Giambi is no longer a “good hitter” following A-Rod. He predictably recorded his 4th strikeout, this one at least against B.J. Ryan (a night of pitchers with abbreviated first names for Toronto). The thinking is that A-Rod was trying to get something started in the 9th, and I understand that and fault him less than bring the play up to point out how everything possible has gone wrong this year for the Yankees. But you wouldn’t be so adamant about trying to get to 2nd base to lead off if you had more faith in the guy hitting behind you. That’s not to say that A-Rod thought that as he ran towards second, but the sense of urgency would be there because of the #5 man’s struggles.

All in all, a disaster. I am ready to give up hopes of the team finding a way to get red hot and make it into the playoffs, just because it seems as though this group of players can not find any magic to get them anywhere near hot. Playing decent baseball and winning the final games in Yankee Stadium will be enough at this point.

To put a cherry on top of a terribly disappointing night, this story about Carl Pavano pops up. It is completely mind-boggling that as soon as he becomes discussed as a possible option for the Yankees’ pitching staff, he again comes up with an injury. A stiff neck? A stiff neck is going to keep a pitcher who has been out for almost 2 full years from making his potential return to the major leagues? I’m going to probably be the first person writing about baseball to do this, but I’m going to have to go ahead and question Carl Pavano’s fire and desire to pitch for the Yankees.

Birdwatching Road Trip Begins

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:14:00 +0000

Games 125-127
at Toronto Blue Jays

Pitching Match-ups

Tonight, Tuesday August 19
Darrell Rasner (5-9, 5.18) vs. A.J. Burnett (15-9, 4.67)

Wednesday, August 20
Andy Pettitte (12-9, 4.30) vs. David Purcey (2-3, 5.93)

Thursday, August 21
Sidney Ponson (7-3, 4.20) vs. Roy Halladay (14-9, 2.64)

Prognostications

Toronto features its two best starters in this series, who have both dominated the Yankees in their starts against them this season. The third guy, David Purcey, is a soft-tossing left hander that the Yankees have never faced before, which has meant that the offense got shut down and the guy had a career game, regardless of how bad his ERA was coming in. Looking at just the pitchers, you assume the Yankees are going to have a tough time in this series.

Then there is the fact that Toronto is red hot as a team, coming off a sweep of Boston in Fenway and a 3 out of 4 game swing through Detroit earlier last week. Alex Rios has been killing the ball, and he is a perpetual thorn in the Yankees’ side. Vernon Wells returned and has swung the bat well, and he too has a strong career track record of clobbering Yankees pitching.

And then you have the Yankees, puttering along after a terrible road trip and a mediocre yet effective enough 3-game homestand against Kansas City. Pessimism envelops the Yankees at this point based on the difficulty of their schedule and the depth of the hole they’ve dug themselves. The feeling is that they will finish behind Tampa and Boston, and could even finish behind Toronto considering the teams are now only separated by 2 games in the standings, and that could swing Toronto’s way by the end of the night on Thursday.

A.J. Burnett is 2-0 this year against the Yankees and has overpowering stuff, Halladay absolutely dominated them for a CG shutout the last time he faced their lineup, and they’ve never seen Purcey so he’s due for his best game in the majors. All this seems to add up to the Yankees being lucky to win one of the three games, with the potential for a Blue Jays sweep as evident as ever.

Do I believe any of this doom and gloom, and do I admit that this 2008 Yankees season will go out with a whimper in Toronto in late August?

No I don’t, not for one second. It’s all about the Yankees’ offense, and what a lot of people are saying is: “If the team hasn’t been able to hit for the first 124 games, why will they suddenly flip a switch and start now?”

I can’t answer that question directly, but I will say that it shouldn’t be a matter of flipping some type of hypothetical switch. The team has been putting itself in positions to succeed offensively all year long. If they begin to build up some consistency in delivering in those potentially productive situations starting tonight and carrying through the rest of this week, and actually win some tough games and show some resiliency and some determination, then it won’t be a matter of “the light bulb has gone on, the switch has been flipped”. It will be a team playing like a team, a team of highly talented individuals figuring out how it works to feed off each other and collaborate to win baseball games. Something that they were great at for the last 2 years they were together, but have inexplicably forgotten how to do this year.

I say that, considering the reputations and abilities of the players taking the field for the Yankees, it is not impossible that they will start playing winning baseball again. No, their offense will not reach those storied heights that pundits expected them to reach, there will be no 1,000 run season. But to say the offense can’t do enough to win games in the major leagues, to me, is silly.

Granted, it will be difficult to take these types of steps if the pitching struggles, which puts a lot of pressure on the shaky Darrell Rasner tonight. But winning this evening’s first game, no matter how ugly it is or what kind of effort it takes, would do a lot for this team. It means beating someone they haven’t been able to solve all year, and it means beginning to make the case that “Oh yeah, rest of the American League, we are the Yankees and we still do have all these big-name players. So maybe we’re not completely out of the race, just yet.”

I personally think tonight will go a long way towards deciding if the pennant race happens in New York this September or not. This is the type of game that needs to swing the Yankees’ way, because it simply has not all year long. I don’t know how it will happen or if it will actually happen, but I am certainly optimistic that it will. Call me crazy, call me unrealistic, call me a pinstripe glasses-wearing buffoon, but I think it is possible.

NOTE: Hideki Matsui has been activated from the 15-day disabled list. Justin Christian was optioned to Triple-A Scranton to open up the roster space for Godzilla. Japan's power hitter is in the lineup tonight, batting 7th and DHing.

So...Who Starts Saturday?

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 02:40:00 +0000

That is a major question that looms over the team as they begin their road trip. It's going to get answered sooner or later, but let's look at the two primary candidates a little closer.

Phil Hughes had a chance to cement himself as the Yankees’ best option to try and fill the #5 slot in the rotation this past Sunday. However, he struggled with his command was knocked around in his start against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (great name for a minor league baseball team). His line for the night was 3.2 IP 8 H 5 ER 0 BB 4 K. After the game he spoke to Chad Jennings who covers the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees for their local paper, and Hughes attributed his struggles to leaving too many pitches over the plate and going through a bit of a dead arm period resulting in diminished velocity and life on his fastball.

The phrase dead arm sounds worse than it actually is: Hughes has been out of action since late April, so he was bound to hit a wall after resuming the regular every-5-days routine for a pitcher. It seems like there is little cause for concern in terms of Phil’s health, but his stuff was simply not as sharp Sunday as it had been during his earlier rehab starts.

The other strong candidate, according to this report on ESPN, is the much-maligned Carl Pavano. He also pitched on Sunday, though his start was at Double A Trenton. He fared much better than Hughes, as his line read: 6 IP 6 H 1 ER 1 BB 6 K. When you look at Pavano’s numbers and consider his major league track record (he’s done it for longer, won more games than Hughes), he would seem to distance himself as the best candidate for Saturday. However, Pavano is still only in his 3rd start back from Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery. So one assumes that he normally would be on a slower-paced rehab timetable based on his injury’s severity. However, this is Carl Pavano we’re talking about, the man that has done jack diddly to earn the almost $39.95 million the Yankees have paid him during his 3 years on the organization’s payroll.

Perhaps he gets the first call in this his final 2 months with the organization in an effort to get something, anything out of that wasted investment. Whenever he gets called up (it has to happen sooner or later, because he’s only on a 30-day rehab assignment, as he hasn’t been demoted to the minors), it will be a huge distraction in the Yankees’ clubhouse. That said, I don’t think that the team’s feelings will be part of the decision making process re: Saturday’s starter.

My final guess is that it will be Carl Pavano in Baltimore on Saturday, and it will be quite a weird day. I think that the team will want to try the veteran first, with the hope that he will not feel any added personal pressure joining a team chasing a playoff spot. It’s dually productive because it gives Hughes more time to try and get his arm in shape and build up personal confidence by being successful at AAA. Furthermore, if Pavano is a terrible flop in his, say, two starts, and Hughes pitches well at Scranton, then they can switch to Hughes for #5.

All in all, I think Pavano makes the most sense on a lot of fronts. I would rather watch Hughes pitch, but I will also gladly sign up for the high drama and trainwreck/bizarre hero potential of seeing Pavano on the mound for the Yankees. Honestly, whoever they pick out of Phil or Pavano, Saturday’s game will be a must-watch for Yankees fans.

2/3 is the Key

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 21:53:00 +0000

Brian Bannister brought out the best in the Yankees’ offense. His line was pretty impressive:

1 IP 10 H 10 ER 3 BB 0 K 3 HR

Top to bottom, the offense did what many have been waiting for: exploded, and beat a team with a mediocre pitching staff to a pulp. Granted, something can be said for how bad the offense looked the first two games of the series against bona fide AL starters Gil Meche and Zack Greinke. However, even in those two low-scoring, hotly contested games, the Yankees had plenty of men on base and therefore had plenty of opportunities to push runs across.

Sunday could not have started worse for the struggling lineup, either: Mike Mussina immediately put the cold-swinging hitters at a 3-0 disadvantage as a result of a soft rally by the Royals that featured a lot of bleeders and bloops. A-Rod, however, turned the momentum around in the bottom of the 1st, when he launched a game-tying three-run home run off Bannister, the first of those three homers he would allow.

Mussina wouldn’t surrender another run on the day, and the Yankees pretty much kept their foot down on the gas offensively and bludgeoned Kansas City to earn an even split of the season series. As I said, top to bottom is how the production spread out. Be it Derek Jeter going 4-for-4 (they were all singles, though, so I guess he still stinks and can’t hit with any authority), or A-Rod’s 3-for-3, or Jason Giambi actually getting a big hit with numerous runners on base (a grand slam, no less). Brett Gardner had a 2-out RBI triple, Xavier Nady ended a small slump by going 2-for-4 and hitting the go-ahead longball in the bottom of the 1st, and even Cody Ransom blasted his first home run as a Yankee.

The team goes into the off day having gained 2 games on Boston in the Wild Card race this weekend after Josh Beckett had a disastrous 2.1 inning performance (8 hits, 8 runs) against Toronto in Fenway, as the Red Sox fell 15-4.

Those same Toronto Blue Jays are the next foe for the Yankees, as they start a 3-game set north of the border tomorrow night. The Yankees have drawn some tough pitching match-ups for the upcoming series, which I will spend more time in previewing tomorrow.

For now, though, yesterday was a good day in the Bronx. The Wild Card race will continue to include the Yankees as long as they continue to win series and perhaps begin to play some consistent offensive baseball. Help may or may not be on the way with Hideki Matsui set to return in Toronto, although it is unknown what his swing will look like and how he’ll perform after a lengthy time disabled, as well as how his knee will hold up.

Still, at least today is another day that the Yankees didn’t lose. Tomorrow may be a different story.

A Bronx Brunch Update

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 16:52:00 +0000

Professional sports always involves discussions of momentum. Baseball has a cliché to neutralize any speculation that a particular win can jumpstart a middling team: your momentum is only as good as the next days’ starting pitcher. In the Yankees’ case, at least Darrell Rasner is starting on Tuesday instead of this afternoon.

The team had a chance to win the series in Minnesota but the bats remained dormant in the third game of that series. They again have a chance to overcome two days of insipid performance with the bats in RBI situations with a strong showing this afternoon against soft-tossing Brian Bannister. At least Meche and Greinke can somewhat be attributed to the offense’s futility Friday and Saturday, although the “tip your hat to the pitcher” card as been played to ridiculous excesses this season. But if the bats aren’t swinging today, there are no excuses other than just not being capable of performing anymore this year.

After yesterday’s grueling almost 5-hour Chinese water torture session of stranding runners and pitching superbly keeping Kansas City scoreless for 11 innings, this afternoon is a sure-fire must win. Throwing around labels like “must win” on baseball games is never an exact science, but all the stars are aligned for the Yankees. They have to start this stretch of baseball against inferior teams with a 2-1 mark. Going to Toronto 1-2 against K.C. means the death knell has sounded.

Mike Mussina will be leaned on heavily to keep pitching like the reinvented maestro on the mound that he’s become—if he shows any signs of laying an egg today, it will be dually disastrous as the bullpen had to work a long long afternoon yesterday. They could use the rest, and the offense could use the assurance that they have their best performing up to his capabilities on the hill. Perhaps that will remind the hitters that they, too, should be performing up to their much-talked about but rarely seen “capabilities” this year.

Here are some other interesting notes to wrap up before today’s game:

Hideki Matsui has had 8 at-bats for the High-A Tampa Yankees over the last 2 days, and he also took part in a simulated game this morning in Tampa, according to Peter Abraham’s blog. Abraham also speculates that he could return to the lineup as early as Tuesday, if his knee holds up. I guessed that they might wait until Friday since they wouldn’t want him running on the artificial surface in Toronto, but a win today could increase the sense of urgency in terms of putting the best offensive foot forward for the stretch run. Either way, adding a professional hitter like Hideki into the #5 spot, which has been a black hole this year while he’s been disabled, could do wonders to help the lineup as a whole, as well as New York’s #1 head case who hits cleanup. Giambi looks like total dead weight at the plate, and Nady has gone into his first slump as a Yankee, so the spots in the lineup behind A-Rod could use some reinforcement.

Granted, though, a lot of this optimism needs to be taken with a grain of salt and also shrouded in the potential for a let-down. His knee is guaranteed to require surgery. Meaning he is not any healthier than he was when he first went on the DL, he’s only been able to get to the point where he can treat it, wear the right protective gear, and deal with the level of pain that comes with hitting and running the bases. However, if anything goes wrong, if there are any tweaks, or if it swells up again and just doesn’t respond to the grind of playing major league baseball, Matsui’s return will end up being very short-lived, and the lineup will go back to relying on Jason Giambi for big at-bats with men on base. Along that line…

Brett Gardner got the game-winning hit yesterday, but if Matsui returns his playing time most certainly will evaporate. Granted, Matsui won’t be able to play every day, but he will be in the lineup at DH as often as Girardi can swing it, meaning Damon will be in CF and Brett will be on the bench. It would be encouraging going forward, though, if Gardner could string together some good games at the plate until Matsui is ready to return. It gives him more confidence in his ability to hit at the big-league level, and it also makes the question of who will be starting in CF in 2009 a little harder to answer. Furthermore, if Matsui breaks down, there is already a backup plan in place, with Brett sliding back into center field and Damon mostly DHing and playing left. Also, looking ahead to 2009, a good stretch run for Brett may give him as much of a chance of winning a job in Spring Training as Melky or anybody else brought in from outside the organization. All in all, interesting consequences follow Brett’s at-bats at this point in the year.

Phil Hughes will make his 3rd start for Scranton today, with their game scheduled to begin at 5:35 pm. My hope is that if he pitches well, finishes strong and doesn’t fatigue once he gets up to around 100 pitches, he needs to make a start in Baltimore. He has too much ability and he could be too much of a stabilizer to their rotation to leave at AAA to continue to “work on some things”, as Girardi put it when probed about Phil starting on Tuesday in Toronto. At this point, a rotation of Mussina, Pettitte, Ponson, Rasner and Hughes is serviceable enough, and if Joba is ever able to return in September, their rotation looks a lot better, as Ponson and Hughes at the back end look extremely appealing. Still, though, Hughes will have a lot to prove upon his return this year—fans will not be accepting any guff about him having to work his way back into big-league form, as was the case last year when he returned in August. Coming off his putrid April and combined with his ceiling-free expectations in the eyes of the faithful, Hughes will be expected to step right in and contribute. It’s a lot to ask of a 22 year old starter that’s been inconsistent and injured most of his short career, but based on his handful of shining moments it is not out of the question for Phil to live up to those expectations.

That’s all for now, I’ll write again this evening to talk about this afternoon’s game and wrap up any other relevant pieces of information that pop up.

More of the Same

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 19:20:00 +0000

Last night’s game was one of the most frustrating regular season games I’ve ever watched. 9 innings of letting a pitcher off the hook has become the norm for this sad group of supposedly talented offensive players. The team has found more unique and mind-boggling ways to lose games this year than they ever have in the past. Any breaks that the Yankees used to be given from the hypothetical baseball gods have vanished and been replaced by a Murphy’s Law level of ineptitude. The loss doesn’t fall on the shoulders of pinch-runner Justin Christian getting picked off, but it was certainly a backbreaking error on the basepaths. Still, the team had so many other chances with all of their “best” run producers at the plate that one flop by Christian should not have killed their chances. In fact, it didn’t. When you get 2 rolling infield singles, a clean single, and a walk in the 9th inning of a one-run game and STILL can’t find a way to score, you have to know that this offense is completely done, completely in the tank and completely hopeless at this point in the season.

As I now check in on today’s game later into the action, I notice that nothing has changed miraculously overnight: the offense still squanders every opportunity to score runs that they’re presented with. Last night they were 3 for 13 with RISP and left 11 men on base. Now this afternoon, the 4th inning sees the Yankees load the bases with nobody out, and Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi coming up with ample opportunities to do damage. Predictably, A-Rod strikes out and Giambi hits into an inning-ending double play. Giambi last night made the final out with the bases loaded, and also struck out in a situation earlier in the game where a hit would have delivered a much-needed offensive lift.

To me, Giambi it the biggest culprit in terms of the year-long, team-wide epidemic of poor hitting with RISP. His season average is a putrid .212 with RISP, and a much-improved .224 with RISP and 2 outs. Sure, he has a good number of RBIs, but he could have produced so much more considering how many opportunities he gets while hitting out of the #5 spot in the lineup. And yet in spite of his futility, Joe Girardi NEVER takes him out of the slot in the lineup behind A-Rod.

It’s a stubbornness in both guys that is extremely frustrating: Giambi has done nothing to make adjustments with men on base, his swing remains long and home run-minded. Girardi has put blind faith in Jason’s ability to somehow turn it around in those situations, and has not backed off it all season long.

At this point, when the offense looks as awful as it does, why as a manager are you not just trying anything to try and shake things up? Demoting Melky Cabrera and playing Brett Gardner is doing nothing to get the offense turned around. The lineup hasn’t worked in months, so why keep running the same one out there day after day?

Honestly, it seems as though Girardi and his players have checked out. Today we’re about to be through 7 full innings, and the offense has yet to crack the scoreboard. Zack Greinke is a great young pitcher, but the Yankees have had enough opportunities once again—runners on 2nd to lead off the last two innings—and have yet to do anything productive. It is going to be a depressing stretch run, since the Yankees are already playing as though they’re ready for the offseason. Not the best way to say goodbye to Yankee Stadium.

This Weekend: Usurping Royalty From K.C.

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 20:56:00 +0000

Games 122-124
vs. Kansas City Royals

Pitching Probables

Tonight, Friday, August 15
Gil Meche (10-9, 4.24) vs. Andy Pettitte (12-9, 4.32)

Saturday, August 16
Zack Greinke (9-8, 4.09) vs. Sidney Ponson (7-3, 4.27)

Sunday, August 17
Brian Bannister (7-11, 5.36) vs. Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.30)

Series Analysis/Predictions

This series features two teams that are 3-7 over their last stretch of ten games. The Royals are coming off a tidy sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox, and have had a particularly ugly stretch of ball where they’ve only gotten one win out of their last nine games. They were playing playoff-caliber teams in those 9 games (Boston, ChiSox and Minnesota), so it will be interesting to see how the Yankees handle them. It’s a nice indirect litmus test of sorts—if the Yankees spank K.C., then maybe they’re not as far behind those other “playoff” teams as they’ve looked lately. If the Yankees struggle to win games this weekend, then you can turn the lights off of 2008. This stretch of 9 games against K.C., Toronto and Baltimore is where they have to string wins together if they are going to try and realistically get back into this race. Anything less than 6-3 makes me finally lose hope for this season for good, and will have me looking forward to only select moments of the remaining games in Yankee Stadium.

As for the match-ups I listed above, I thik it’s going to be a tough task for this offense to sweep. Greinke is the best pitcher of the three, and the Yankees have had mixed results against him this year. He beat them in a start earlier in the season in Missouri, but the Yankees beat him in his only start in the Bronx. He has pitched poorly since the All-Star Break, posting a 6.83 ERA in his 5 starts. Still, a pitcher with his kind of stuff (power fastball, nasty breaking pitches) has shut the Yankees’ offense down all season long.

Gil Meche, tonight’s starter, has virtually the same numbers as Andy Pettitte. Unlike Andy, Meche has pitched better in the second half this year, as he’s received victories in 4 of his last 5 starts. He beat Boston two starts ago, and received a no-decision against the Twins in his last start. Alarming, and hopefully reassuring for the Yankees’ patient veterans, is his BB::K ratio in those two starts: 12::15. A-Rod and Jeter have good career numbers against him in larger sample sizes, with Abreu and Nady also having success in limited opportunities facing the right-hander.

Brian Bannister is a guy that was floated around as someone the Yankees might have had interest in. I don’t really know why, since they have a pitcher with almost identical statistics already on their roster, Mr. Darrell Rasner. Bannister pitches kind of like Rasner, relying on changing speeds early in counts and often in order to keep hitters off-balance. Since the end of June, Bannister’s ERA has risen from a pedestrian 4.88 to an ugly 5.36, as he has been winless for all of July and August. He’s given up less runs as of late, but he should be the type of pitcher that the Yankees offense can do some damage against: not overpowering, can be forced to throw hittable strikes if he gets into deep counts.

Overall, I think the Yankees need a three-game sweep to build any momentum and regain any sliver of confidence that this team has what it takes to even be in the conversation for a playoff spot. I think they can skate by with good performances from 2 out of the 3 starters, as K.C. has been struggling to score runs for quite a while now. So you figure that one of the two of Pettitte and Ponson can struggle (and remember, Pettitte did give up 10 earned runs to Kansas City earlier in the year), but the team can not afford two combustible performances from starters, especially with the bullpen worn thin with the loss of Dan Giese and relative lack of a long man.

Melky Demoted-Sexson Released

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 20:17:00 +0000

The Melk Man has left the building, presumably riding out on the back of The Big Sexy like an excited young boy taking his first pony ride. Melky Cabrera has been demoted to Scranton-Wilkes Barre, replaced on the roster by Brett Gardner. In a corresponding move, Richie Sexson has been released and replaced on the roster by utility infielder and 32-year-old career minor leaguer Cody Ransom.

Glad to see Gardner get another shot with the big club. He’s an unbelievable threat on the bases and he grinds out long at-bats. Granted, speed and grinding didn’t help Gardner do better than a .153/.227/.169 line in his first stint, but the message is clear: ineptitude to the level of Melky’s will not stand, even if it was allowed to for three months too long. A real pessimist could argue that this is making a change for the sake of making a change and that it doesn’t change anything for the Yankees 2008 playoff hopes, and that pessimist would be hard to argue with because they’re mostly right. But addition by subtraction is a real concept, and perhaps both these moves are meant to do a little wake-up work for all parties directly affected:

Melky Cabrera: Pretty obvious, but it can affect him a lot of ways. He can’t take for granted that he’s a part of the team anymore, either this year or for next year, meaning it’s crystal clear that he’s going to have to earn whatever future he’s going to have with the Yankees. It’s a shame that he will undoubtedly be a September call-up when rosters expand, which is what makes this move too little too late. Instead of letting him stew in the minors and recalibrate and maybe figure out how to hit again via an extended stay, he’s really getting a 2-week excommunication to western Pennsylvania. In the bigger picture, though, it means that Austin Jackson’s chances of cracking the big league team in 2009 have increased exponentially, and it’s open season for who plays CF for the Yankees on Opening Day 2009.

Robinson Cano: It takes away his number one buddy, and it means he’ll have to fly solo if he’s going to head out to Manhattan clubs to get ripped and pick up ladies dying to hang out with one or more of the New York Yankees. Also, Cody Ransom’s call-up shows that maybe his virtually unwavering playing time isn’t going to be guaranteed if he continues to play lazy, uninspired baseball. A start at 2nd for Ransom against a left handed starter would be an eyebrow-raiser, for sure.

Brett Gardner: A chance to redeem his putrid offensive performance upon his first go-round with the Yankees. He has notoriously been a slow starter when he’s advanced a level through the minors, and the jump from AAA to MLB is arguably the hardest a professional player makes. It will be interesting to see if he adjusts to big league pitching the 2nd time around, if he’s more aggressive early in counts when he gets fat pitches, or if he sticks to always running a 2-strike count and too often being called out on strikes.

Johnny Damon: He will be expected to play more CF than he has in the last 2 years. His arm is still terrible so teams will still run on him when they have the chance, but his legs have been healthy all year. Hopefully he can still track down balls when he has to, and hopefully an extra level of exertion on his body by playing center won't negatively effect his sterling performance at the plate so far this year.

Wilson Betemit: Inexplicably, he backs his way into a bigger role on the team. Since I doubt Gardner will be seeing a starter’s amount of playing time, the lineup will frequently feature Johnny Damon in CF, Nady in LF and Betemit or Giambi as DH. Joel Sherman of the Post broke the news of these roster moves, and in his write-up he brings up the potential increase in his P.T. To me, this is a boneheaded move if it occurs; granted, tonight’s lineup does not feature Betemit (Gardner is in CF and Damon is the DH), but I don’t see that lasting, especially if Brett continues to struggle at the major league level.

Cody Ransom: He’s a 32 year old guy whose never played in the bigs before; to him, this is the chance of a lifetime. Hopefully he can get himself a couple of hits and play some good D when he’s on the field, and maybe catch another organization’s attention, maybe parlaying a big league roster spot for 2009.

Richie Sexson: Well, not a good couple of years for The Big Sexy. I’m sure some team will take a flier on him for Spring Training 2009, but he has suffered a precipitous fall from one of the league’s biggest power threats and a decent 1B option. He didn’t do a terrible job with the Yankees, but he also didn’t seem to be taking any different of an approach at the plate—meaning still a lot of swings and misses, and not much production.

Assorted News and Notes

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 16:03:00 +0000

Wanted to briefly go over some relevant news that’s developed in the last day or so. It’s amazing that even on off days there are so many nuggets of information that pop up and warrant some discussion.

---Touching on what I wrote yesterday, Darrell Rasner has been officially named the starter for Tuesday night’s game in Toronto, replacing disabled Dan Giese. Chris Britton will be in the bullpen tonight to take Giese’s place on the roster. Britton has become quite the punchline in the “Yankees Universe”. I honestly don’t know what to make of keeping a player in such limbo as Britton. I guess he must be glad that the team keeps calling his number to come up to the big leagues, but he is never given a real chance to pitch with the Yankees so I doubt he’s ever really that thrilled to show up in the clubhouse anymore. Oh well, I’m sure he’s crying a lot when he looks at his six-figure paycheck.

---Tyler Kepner wrote on the NY Times blog that the Yankees’ 1st round pick in this June’s draft, right-handed high school starter Gerrit Cole, has decided to forgo signing with the Yankees, instead choosing to go to college. The way it seemed to shake down: Cole is represented by the nefarious Scott Boras, with Cole also receiving influential counsel from his father. Boras’ demands apparently were for a major-league contract with a $9 million signing bonus. So that would mean that Cole would be added to the Yankees’ 40-man roster, even though he is a ripe 18 years old and years (3 or 4 in best case scenario) from cracking the majors. Furthermore, to put the rumored money demands into perspective, the Rays signed the draft’s #1 pick, shortstop Tim Beckham, to a minor-league deal with a bonus of $6.15 million. So, Boras has decided that Cole deserves to get the richest bonus of any player in the draft. It seems possible that the Yankees might be okay with the obscene money demands (since they are, after all, the Yankees) but would not be willing to give up a precious 40-man roster spot. The team gave last year’s #1 pick Andrew Brackman a big-league deal with a 40-man roster spot, but he is years older than Cole. Plus, giving one #1 pick a spot should not dictate a norm for years to come, especially since the Yankees have had to juggle their 40-man all year to keep from losing players.

A truly sticky situation is what the Cole process seems to be. Kepner’s post makes it seem as though the deal is totally dead because Cole and his father will turn down any offer and are fully set on Gerrit attending U.C.L.A. in the fall. In that scenario, though, he wouldn’t be eligible for the draft again till his junior year, which is an eternity for a young pitcher—his stock could completely disintegrate in that time, and he may never approach the type of interest/deal he could get this year from the Yankees. However, this is Scott Boras that is involved with these negotiations, and the deadline for draft picks to sign is tonight at midnight, so I don’t think this issue is completely dead. If anything changes, I will be sure to post an update.

---Sports talk radio in New York has seen a radical change announced yesterday: Mike and the Mad Dog, mainstays on WFAN for 18 years, will no longer be on the air. Chris Russo is leaving WFAN, apparently signing a big-money deal with Sirius Satellite Radio, leaving Mike Francessa solo on the airwaves at The Fan. I never enjoyed listening to or watching their show, but they were the biggest names in the country’s biggest market. Oodles of New York sports fans tuned in to their show every afternoon and listened to these two buffoons preach on the good and bad of every team in the city (except for hockey because, to them, it wasn’t a real sport). The writing had been on the wall for their split for quite a while, so this news comes as no surprise.

---Rehab notes: Hideki Matsui’s scheduled debut in the Single-A Tampa Yankees’ lineup was sidetracked by rain last night. He is scheduled to play tonight, so it will be interesting to see how he comes through that. Phil Hughes is still scheduled to start Sunday in Scranton, and should get up above 90 pitches for the first time in his rehab appearances. There is mucho speculation that it will be his last appearance in the minors, and I think that will be case as well—but if he struggles with control or labors in any way, I think the team takes it slow with him. The struggles early in the year of both Hughes and Kennedy, and the short leash on Kennedy when he returned last week, makes me believe that they would rather let those guys work it out at AAA then put them in the majors before they’re completely ready.

---Speaking of Ian Kennedy, Chad Jennings’ S/WB Yankees blog has his catcher and pitching coach saying he threw approximately 30 curveballs in his start (5 IP 6 H 1 ER) for Scranton last night. They told him to work on his secondary pitches, and Ian took the note and ran with it, also throwing many two-seam fastballs, a pitch that seemed non-existent in his starts in the big leagues. He was in a lot of 3-ball counts as a result of the experimentation, causing his start to only last 5 innings. But it seems like the focus is not on his numbers, but instead on his ability to refine his pitches and be more than just a four-seam fastball/change-up guy. The next start for him will seem to be a big test, as he says in the Jennings post that he will look to incorporate the entire arsenal into one start. The key will be throwing his curveball for a strike—when he showed that pitch in the majors, it was never in the strike zone so hitters didn’t have to respect it. If he builds up consistency with that pitch and can throw it in any count, he becomes less predictable and ultimately less hittable, even in the majors. Should be interesting to see how he looks once he gets recalled in September, after doing all this work to reinvent his approach ¾ of the way through the season.

I’ll be back later with a preview of this weekend’s 3-gamer against the Kansas City Royals.

DAN GIESE: Headed to Disabled List

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:21:00 +0000

Today the Yankees announced that Dan Giese is going to the 15-day disabled list with the dreaded rotator cuff tendinitis that took Joba Chamberlain out of commission. There has been no decision announced about who will start in Giese's place Tuesday in Toronto. The only two candidates seem to be Darrell Rasner and Phil Hughes. The team has been adamant about giving Phil another start to "work on some things" at AAA this Sunday. So we'll probably be subjected to another tightrope act by D-Razz where he struggles through 5 innings and the team doesn't score him any runs. I understand the thinking in terms of not rushing Phil back and making sure he has the endurance and confidence to make it through a full major league start, but I am just sick of watching Darrell Rasner make starts for the Yankees--no knock on the guy, I know he competes and he's got more guts than Ian Kennedy right now, but he is just a borefest and his potential ceiling is 6 decent innings.

Oh, and just for the record, when Giese left the game in Minnesota Wednesday Girardi's quote was something along the lines of "This shouldn't change anything for his start on Tuesday..." Joe Girardi, always telling it like it is to reporters and fans about his players' injuries.

Current Dark Days Make Future Decisions Loom Large

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:17:00 +0000

Today is dark on the schedule, so it makes it easier to let the ineptitude of the team’s now mercifully completed road trip really sink in. 3 wins out of 10 games away from the Bronx. Utterly pathetic, even when you consider that three of the losses were against baseball’s best team—two of those games the Yankees were in positions to win, so you can’t chalk it all up to being overmatched or outclassed by a better team.

Even the off days seem dark considering how far behind the team has fallen and how little time is left to make this season relevant. Based on how bad the team looks right now, I’m driven to consider what the roster might look like next season as an alternative to dwelling on the present. It is going to be an extremely interesting offseason for the Yankees, and it is extremely premature to be speculating on what will happen, but I am going to run through a short list of moves I think need to be made:

A) Bring back Brian Cashman. He has a plan that needs to be carried out for a while longer—he has put the organizational onus on drafting the best players available and being willing to overpay them, thus stocking the farm system for the first time in a long time. It has not been all sunshine and roses (See: Expectations for Hughes and Kennedy in 2008), but there is still so much talent in the organization. It should be Cashman who decides which of those guys to keep and which of those guys to move, and he should be given the chance to use all the pieces he picked to put together a championship. Sign him to a 3 year deal, and if he hasn’t produced a winner by year 2, maybe he doesn’t live to see year 3.

B) Say goodbye to Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Richie Sexson, Wilson Betemit, Ivan Rodriguez and *gulp* Carl Pavano. These guys are either flat-out free agents, or have team options that should not be picked up (Giambi & Pavano). That’s 20% of the active roster already deleted right there. Out of the group, Abreu is the one that I would consider bringing back, but only if he wanted to take an incentive-laden 2 years guaranteed/3rd and 4th year option deal. On the open market, though, he will certainly get a better offer than that.

C) Offer a ton of money to CC Sabathia to return to the American League, not drift further west towards his Oakland hometown. Out of all the other “marquee” free agents (Mark Teixeira, Ben Sheets, Adam Dunn for sure, guys like AJ Burnett and Rich Harden have options), Sabathia is the best fit for the Yankees. Much debate revolves around replacing Giambi with Teixeira, but he will demand a long (7 year) contract for money that supposes that he’s on the level with Albert Pujols or other elite-type first basemen, which he isn’t. Plus, there are enough position players on this team under long-term contracts, and adding another extremely long deal to the mix removes any of the gained financial flexibility from the departures of those 5 players I mentioned earlier.

D) Try to fill the voids created at first base and in the outfield through trades and potentially low-key free agent signings. This is where Brian Cashman can get really creative. The team has stockpiled a lot of prospects since the organizational philosophy shifted in 2005—this is probably the best offseason to start exchanging trading chips for major league talent. You have to go out there and scour the Earth to see if there is a first basemen that is not aging, has athletic ability, is a decent situational hitter and can play good defense. The philosophy shouldn’t be, “We need a new power threat who can mash 30 HRs!”. It should be, “We need to find the best baseball player available at this position, who fits our needs both financially and on the field”. First base has to be the priority in terms of trades, but if a deal came along for an outfielder who fit that previously mentioned profile, AND has experience playing CF, I would hope that Cash would jump at that.

E) This last point kind of goes along with Point D. Decide the fate of the hideously obnoxious tandem of Melky and Robbie by asking some tough questions. Cano is going to end up having his worst full year in the majors, and he has looked God awful while doing it, but we’ll talk about his buddy in CF first

Melky has become an abomination at the dish, and is quickly losing playing time to Johnny Damon and Justin Christian. His value is much lower than it was during the offseason last year, but he is still only 24. Do you try and deal him in any trade you want to make to fill other voids left by Abreu and Giambi? And if you do, are you signing a stopgap to replace him, or giving Brett Gardner a chance to win the job in Spring Training, or what? And if Melky is still around, you absolutely have to tell him that he must earn any playing time he’s going to get in 2009. He didn’t have any competition for the job this year, and it burned them in the end because it seems like he now takes his job for granted.

As for Cano, the Yankees have to decide if he is their best option as a second baseman for the next 3 years. They have to recognize that other teams would want Cano due to his previous success, age, and cost-controlled nature, on top of a lot of raw talent that teams would think they could tap in to. All those things combined, Cano is the commodity that would land the Yankees the biggest return of talent if traded. If you can land a difference-making offensive player, or if you miss on Sabathia but there is another bigtime pitcher available, you have to consider trading Cano.

All these things considered, it will certainly be an interesting offseason in the Bronx this fall.

Giese Leaves Game; So Does Home Plate Ump

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 19:10:00 +0000

I speculated that Dan Giese might be needed in long relief today. Turned out Rasner gave the team 5 quality innings, leaving down 3-1 thanks to the Yankees offense deciding to take another game off, saving their energy for those important rounds of golf that they're eagerly anticipating come October.

Joe Girardi inserts this past Saturday's starter Dan Giese to replace Rasner in the bottom of the 6th inning. Giese proceeds to load the bases without recording an out, and then was forced to leave the game with an injury. Unbelievable. Now David Robertson is brought in to try and get out of a bases loaded, nobody out jam--why not just have Robertson start the inning? You are talking about Giese being your starter on Tuesday, I don't really understand the point in using him, even for one inning, for today's game.

In the midst of Robertson's attempt at portraying Harry Houdini, home plate umpire Mike Winters was struck with a foul tip and forced to leave the game. A lengthy delayed followed, completely disrupting Robertson's perceived rhythm on the mound. He only allowed 1 of the 3 inherited runners to score, a job very well done considering he started with the bags juiced and nobody out. Time for the offense is quickly running out.

UPDATE: It was announced that Giese left the game with an "injured neck/shoulder". 2 shutout innings from Robertson, and the bottom of the order gets the first two men on in the top of the 8th on singles from Pudge and Betemit. Melky Cabrera is your next batter, and instead of keeping him in CF and having him bunt to try and cut the lead to 4-3...Girardi sends up Sexson, looking to tie the game on one swing. Sexson strikes out swinging, leaving the runners implanted at 1st and 2nd and bringing up Damon and Abreu without as good of a chance of driving in runs. Question the logic of Joe on that move.

Second Update: That rally led to 1 run that scored on a swinging third strike by Bobby Abreu that magically got away from Joe Mauer, allowing the Pudge to score from 3rd. A-Rod flew out to center on a 3-1 pitch to end the rally, and now Billy Traber is in the game. Seems as though Girardi is raising the white flag throwing this scrub in there against Mauer and Morneau.

Afternoon Delight?

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:35:00 +0000

Last night was a rarity. The bullpen blowout that cost the Yankees a lead late in the game has generally been rare this year, although not lately (see: the debacle in Anaheim this past Saturday). Mariano Rivera serving up the game-tying gopher ball is the shocking part of the equation. The offense, specifically the Golden-Rod, producing a timely home run to give them the lead, was surprising. Even more so was their ability to tack on 2 more runs after A-Rod’s blast to give 12th inning closer Edwar Ramirez a 3-run cushion.

What’s most shocking to me, though, is that they actually won an extra-innings game on the road. They had lost their only three extra inning road games this year, including one on that same Minnesota field on May 31st. Since 2007, their record in such games was a whopping 1-10. Not a huge sample size when you consider how few games it is total. However, all those circumstances make the win last night a satisfying one. The problem, however, is that there’s no way to predict if that win will have any positive residual effect on this afternoon’s matinée affair in the Hubert H. Humphrey Dome. The cliché is that a team’s momentum is based on the next day’s pitcher. That doesn’t seem to favor the Yankees, as Darrell Rasner is fresh off a demotion to the bullpen that he escaped thanks to Ian Kennedy’s physical and mental implosion in Anaheim. They are going to have to put some runs up on the board, early and often ideally. Kevin Slowey is a good candidate to comply, as the Yankees have already touched him up on two occasions so far this year. Should be an interesting game, for a number of reasons:

--A terrible Rasner performance could force the organization’s hand in deciding what to do next with the rehabbing Phil Hughes. This weekend’s starters are set, with Pettitte, Ponson and Mussina scheduled to toe the rubber. Next Tuesday in Toronto, however, is where it gets interesting, and Dan Giese is the central figure of interest. Giese deserves another start based on his performance Saturday in Anaheim. However, Dan is also the team’s best long reliever. It’s feasible that he’d be needed to pitch today and perhaps one game this weekend, if either Rasner, Ponson or Pettitte flame out early in their starts.

If he pitches twice between now and Tuesday, Phil will be up and starting in Toronto. If he doesn’t pitch today but is used over the weekend for an inning or two, I still think he starts on Tuesday. All of these scenarios aside, though, I think barring injury or poor performance at Scranton, Hughes is back in the rotation next weekend in Baltimore.

--Derek Jeter fouled a pitch off his instep of his left foot last night, and even though Girardi said that he thought he’d start today’s game, Jeter is on the bench. Wilson Betemit is starting at SS today, and you assume that Jeter will be well enough to start Friday night in the Bronx. It’s unbelievable to me how bad Betemit has looked at the plate all this season, yet how much confidence Joe Girardi has in constantly putting him in the lineup. How can occasional home run power overcome tons of strikeouts and defensive mediocrity? The Yankees’ bench has not been good in 10 years because of players like Betemit littering the roster.

--Tampa lost last night in Oakland so the Yankees picked up a game, and they’re now 8 back in the AL East race. No advance in the Wild Card hunt, as Boston won a football game against the Texas Rangers, 19-17. They were winning 10-0 after the first inning, yet Charlie “Tim Wakefield 2.0” Zink gave it all back in his major league debut.

It’s still unrealistic to be gunning for the Rays based on the size of the deficit, but Crawford and Longoria out of their lineup change their dynamic a whole lot. They have been winning all year with pitching, but their young pitchers have thrown a lot of innings and have never experienced the wear and tear of pennant race games in August and September. The possibility is still there, but the Yankees need to pretty much win or split every series they play from here on in, including against teams like the Angels, Rays and Red Sox. A tall order, for sure. Boston is more vulnerable head-to-head without Ramirez and with people like Lowell and Varitek struggling, but they are still winning games and scoring runs. The Yankees have to almost become a different team over the next 6 weeks, and a short-term personality makeover is hard to do in baseball. Usually by August, you are what you are as a team and your identity isn’t changing drastically.

--Mark Melancon gave up the 2 runs that Phil Hughes was charged with in Pawtucket last night, as he relieved Hughes in the 6th after Phil had allowed two men to reach base and had hit his magic pitch count number of 85. Still, though, bringing Melancon into the middle of an inning is a sign that the Yankees have to be considering promoting him to help their bullpen, which has struggled lately after a season of overachieving. It should be interesting to see if their from-within reinforcements (Hughes, Matsui, maybe Melancon) pan out this year. Kennedy is already firmly in the “didn’t pan out” category of reinforcements, and unlikely to move from there before October. But three out of four would be a great ratio.

Back later with more about today’s game.

Change You Can Believe In

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 23:11:00 +0000

When a team looks as bad as the Yankees have in the last four days, the days leading up to a game are excruciating. You want to fast forward from 1 p.m. to, in tonight's case, 8 so the game can get here already and the team can try and erase their recent awful play. If you're like me and you read the comments of other Yankees fans across the vast internet wasteland, you really want to see the overwhelming negativity about the team and its players silenced for at least 3 hours. I know those negative vibes won't totally go away until the Yankees are breathing down the necks of either Boston or Tampa, a scenario looking less and less likely as the days wear on, but days like today make you dream.

In my dream scenarios, here are five things that will happen across the remainder of the regular season to get this fast-sinking ship turned around:

#1--Melky Cabrera is optioned to AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre and told to get his mind right and work extensively on his offensive game. He is promised a call-back when rosters expand on September 1st. Called up for the millionth time this year is reliever Chris Britton. Johnny Damon and Justin Christian split the time in CF, with Damon playing center against righty hurlers and Christian spotting him against lefties.

#2--Phil Hughes, after a strong rehab start in Scranton tonight, returns to the rotation this weekend against Kansas City and starts a string where he pitches the kind of baseball that everyone expected from him at the beginning of the season.

#3--Hideki Matsui has a successful rehab stint and rejoins the team as full-time DH during next weekend's series in Baltimore (wishful thinking, early next week in Toronto, but why risk his knee on the artificial turf?).

#4--Joba Chamberlain works himself back with a clean bill of health and returns to the rotation when the team opens a series on the road in Tampa at the beginning of September, taking Dan Giese's spot after he did a serviceable job filling in. The rotation for the stretch run is Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Sidney Ponson.

#5--Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter's offensive games come alive, and with the re-insertion of Matsui, the lineup consistently performs to the level that they were expected to coming in to the season.

Basically, all five of those things have to happen for this team to have any chance at making the postseason. The Melky Cabrera demotion, actually, doesn't have to happen--Johnny Damon playing 90% of the time in CF would suffice, although why not at least give Melky a chance to succeed at AAA and get his confidence up?

I don't believe all 5 will happen, and I don't believe this team is postseason bound. I just hope that they don't cash in their chips now and keep playing like a team that is giving in to the fact that injuries and inferior performances from expected contributors have already ended their season. Hank Steinbrenner today basically said he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the team rebounding this year but is psyched for next year. I don't want to give up yet, regardless of what he says.

Another Lost Night

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 03:44:00 +0000

Much was made of how Joe Girardi would be a great motivator, how he was a natural leader of men and would bring a spark that the Yankees had been missing during the stoic and calm Joe Torre years.

But this year has been full of nights like tonight, where the team looks as though it is going through the motions. It's as though the offense fails once early on, and then starts pressing and pressing, attempting to make it all up with one swing. Not the right way to get what is supposed to be a good offensive team off the snide.

Ivan Rodriguez and Melky Cabrera spit the bit bigtime tonight, stomping out the only rally the Yankees were able to muster against randomly unhittable Glen Perkins. It is amazing to me that Melky Cabrera has nine lives this season. How does a team that presents itself as a contender, plugs in 3 major league veterans at the deadline, allow a literal automatic out all year long to remain in the everyday lineup?

It's not as though Cabrera is some 10-year veteran who has a long track record of steady play. He's had one good full offensive season. This year he looks completely out of sync at the plate. Girardi seems to love Justin Christian enough to sit Johnny Damon, who is only leading the AL in hitting, but he won't sit Cabrera for an extended stretch after he keeps burning the Yankees' offense with a terrible approach and complete offensive futility?

The problem is that Gardner and Christian are not good enough to make anyone forget Melky. At the same time, though, they can't be too much worse at the plate. Gardner looked pretty terrible in his cameo, but are there no repercussions for 4 straight months of terrible baseball? Atlanta demoted what they considered a future offensive star, Jeff Francouer, for his terrible hitting throughout the year in an effort to get him started. Didn't work.

Isn't it worth a shot? And, this is in no way intended to point all the team's offensive blame at the feet of Melky, the expected #9 hitter who in a perfect world would be an offensive afterthought. But if he's going to remain in the lineup, there's going to be a chance for him to have important at-bats. And if he fails in those at-bats all year long, why does he keep getting the opportunity?

4 straight losses and a 2-6 road trip is a complete disaster. Best case scenario of 4-6 is ugly, and just getting to that point seems like an extremely up-hill climb considering Rasner throws on Wednesday afternoon. Things are looking bleaker by the day with the 2008 Yankees.

The Three Vs. The Twins

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 23:31:00 +0000

Games 118-120
@ Minnesota Twins

Pitching Probables

Tonight, Monday August 11
Sidney Ponson (7-2, 4.23) vs. Glen Perkins (8-3, 4.38)

Tuesday, August 12
Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.27) vs. Nick Blackburn (9-6, 3.60)

Wednesday, August 13
TBA (Darrell Rasner, Dan Giese, Chase Wright?) vs. Kevin Slowey (8-8, 4.07)

Series Predictions

Yankees will take 2 out of 3, winning the first two games and having a letdown on getaway day with TBA on the hill. Ponson will struggle tonight but the offense will have a good game against Perkins, who could have beaten the Yankees in his last appearance against them, if not for his second baseman forgetting how many outs there were in an inning and also being matched up against a locked-in Mike Mussina.

The Moose will not have his best start on Tuesday, but he will persevere and pick up his 16th W.

TBA will get shelled.

-Good news out of Tampa today, as Matsui continues to progress while he's now strapped into a clunky knee brace. He is running the bases again tomorrow, and he could end up playing in rehab games as soon as this weekend. Girardi said he might come back as early as next week, barring any setbacks. That would change the dynamic offensively, and might actually provide the lineup a good situational hitter, something they sure could have used in Anaheim.

Also, Chamberlain says he's ready to begin throwing again. He wanted to start building himself back up on Wednesday, but Girardi pushed him to Friday. Probably a smart move, Girardi's rationale in the pre-game was that they wanted to have his own staff present to evaluate Joba throwing, thinking that they would pick up if he was trying to mask discomfort better than minor league coaches or organizational execs.

-Even more good news out of Tampa, as well: the Rays lost Longoria to a fractured wrist, a stunning turn-around after he and the team downplayed his injury as a short-term problem. He joins Carl Crawford on the DL, who is out with a ligament sprain in his middle finger which could linger and prove serious, as well. Frustrating considering that the Yankees have dug themselves an enormous hole in the division race and this is the first true prolonged adversity that team will have to face, possibly for the rest of the year. Until they show signs of cracking, the Wild Card has to be the focus.

-In non-baseball news, I had my greatest moment ever watching the Olympics last night. The U.S. swimmers winning that 4x100 relay race, outstretching the thuggish smack-talking French and keeping Michael Phelps in line to win 8 gold medals...it was absolutely riveting. The pure passion that Phelps and his teammates displayed upon winning reminded me why I love watching sports, something that has been dormant throughout this extremely flat Yankees season. It stirred awake my still-fresh muscle memory of February and the New York Giants vs. New England Patriots, albeit for only a few fleeting seconds. Great stuff. Hope Phelps wins another gold tonight.

Back again soon with updates. Can't wait to see which version of your #3 Starter Sidney Ponson shows up tonight.

8:35 PM, End of Top 2nd Inning: Couldn't have played out any better for the Yankees. 1st and 3rd nobody out and they manage to completely squander that opportunity. Pudge pop-up, Melky GIDP. Unbelievable is the word that Michael Kay used. Nothing unbelievable about it if you've been watching all year.

10:00 PM, Bottom of 8th Inning: Eight listless, completely pathetic innings from the Yankees' offense tonight. Strong outing for Sidney Ponson, but now Girardi is trying to stretch him for 8 innings. Going down by more than 3 is lights out, although it seems highly unlikely that any lights are coming on in the top of the 9th, whether they're facing Perkins (another underwhelming lefty the Yankees have made look like a #1 starter) or Joe Nathan. Michael Kay will undoubtedly ask, going into the commercial break, "Do the Yankees have a rally in them?", and the answer, as it has been all year, seems like it will be no.

Rock Bottom, Revisited: Sweep to Make You Weep

noreply@blogger.com (Andrew Leigh) — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 01:00:00 +0000

Amazing that I don't post for almost 3 months yet the same issues are at the forefront of the Yankees' universe. Situational hitting has been an absolute nightmare all season long. It is almost unfathomable that a collection of hitters with as impressive track records as the Yankees' hitters have can look so utterly incapable of picking up runs when they are ripe for that picking.

I tuned into yesterday's game in the 7th inning. John Lakcey appeared to be on the ropes as he'd yielded an RBI single to Johnny Damon, giving the Yankees a 2-run advantage and a serious threat for more. Damon and Melky were on 2nd and 3rd, respectively, following a head-scratching yet still acceptable sacrifice bunt from Derek Jeter (2 runners in scoring position with 1 out is better than a potential rally-killing double play, something Derek has become extremely familiar with this year).

My viewing seemingly brought extremely bad omens to what appeared to be a promising situation. Bobby Abreu, who has been one of the team's better hitters with RISP this year, sharply grounded to second. Melky, running on contact within the infield, was gunned down at home. That brought up the team's worst offender in potentially run-producing situations lately, the flailing reigning MVP A-Rod. A strikeout later, Lackey was out of the jam.

2 innings later, the Yankees bullpen allowed 10 runs, completely flushing a great performance from rotation addition Dan Giese.

That 7th inning offensive flop carried over this afternoon: 2 for 12 with RISP, 14 men left on base total. They were within a few big hits of winning all 3 games against the best team in baseball. That, considering that Ian "2008's Biggest Flop Award Recipient" Kennedy only lasted 2 innings in his start Friday, makes this weekend's sweep even more disappointing.

The team limps into Minnesota with extremely bleak postseason prospects. Tampa Bay has not slowed down and has a comfortable 8.5 game lead in the AL East. The only solace to take from this so-far disgustingly ugly road trip is that Boston has done nothing to separate themselves in the Wild Card race-a 4 game disadvantage, considering how bad the team currently looks, is in no way insurmountable. Especially since the teams still play each other 6 times before season's end.

Needless to say, though, a lot has to change in order to make this season anything more than a total wash that will ultimately be chalked up to too many injuries and too much inconsistency. A good place for something to change would be in Minnesota, a team that is still ahead of the Yankees record-wise and could ultimately be a team they have to contend with for the Wild Card. Back tomorrow with the pitching match-ups and a preview of the series.