HOUSTON TEXANS (+7.5) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

I think you go points here. The Texans defense should be able to keep the Texans in this game. Both defenses give up an average of 17 PPG. Both offenses score about 24 PPG. This is a very even matchup. I think this spread should be more like +4.5. Houston is giving up just 85.7 rushing yards per game in their last 3. I think you see the Texans hold the Ravens to a touchdown or less. But then again, you’re asking for a lot from T.J. Yates against the Ravens defense in the playoffs.

Prediction: Ravens 24 – Texans 17

Pick Against the Spread: Texans +7.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5)

I’m an Eagles fan, you think I’m going to take the Giants? Aaron Rodgers baby!

Prediction: Packers 38 – Giants 24

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -7.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

It’s never easy picking playoff games, so I usually tread lightly throughout the playoffs. Most of the picks last week were low-confidence plays. In the last two years, the underdogs went 6-2 ATS in the Wild Card round, so I decided to play the trend and take the dogs this past week. Taking the dogs ended up 1-3 with Tim Tebow getting the sole cover.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The books are giving much love to the 49ers and their top-ranked defense that gives up just 14.3 PPG (10.9 PPG at home). I think you’ll actually see the Saints punt at least once this game (unlike last game). That’s right, not a single punt from the Saints last game. Despite how good the 49ers defense is, I don’t think you see the 49ers hold the Saints to less than 24 points. However, there is a dramatic drop in PPG for the Saints when they travel. The Saints average about 41 PPG at home, but just 24 PPG on the road. That’s something to be concerned about. I actually think the bye weeks hurts the 49ers hurts more than it helps them since the Saints are coming into this game with a ton of momentum following their dominating win over the Lions last week. I’m going with the Saints this week and think you see them win by 7.

Prediction: Saints 27 – 49ers 20

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

DENVER BRONCOS (+13.5) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Granted, New England beat up on Denver just a few weeks ago 41-23, but it’s a whole new day for Tim Tebow and the Broncos. I will take the points mainly because I want to root for Tim Tebow and hate the Patriots, but I do think they have a legitimate shot at covering the spread. The reason I think the Broncos have a shot is because New England’s defense sucks. Another reason I think the Bronocs have a shot at this game is that the Patriots are defeatable if you can pressure Tom Brady. I loved what I saw from Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller last week and think you’ll see them bring the pressure again this week. A final reason for this pick is that Tim Tebow loves Jesus more than Tom Brady and God will help him with this game. If Tebow was Atheist, he would clearly be one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. I don’t think there is any debating this.

Prediction: Patriots 35 – Broncos 24

Pick Against the Spread: Broncos +13.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

At the time of this post, it looks like the Lions pick is panning out according to plan. The Lions got the opportunity to set the tone by scoring the first touchdown of the day, which was the key to their gameplan, as they’ll be able to carry a 14-10 lead into halftime which gives those with the points a 14.5-point lead at halftime. Let’s take a look at Sunday’s action.

ATLANTA FALCONS (+3) @ NEW YORK GIANTS

First, full disclosure, I am an Eagles fan so I am never going to take the Giants in the playoffs, so this pick is totally bias. First, the Giants are inconsistent. They can either be on fire or they can absolutely suck. They can manage to beat the Cowboys twice and the Jets once, but they’ll lose to the Redskins and Seahawks. I guess you can call division games never easy and the Seahawks game a fluke. This is a pretty even match-up. Homefield advantage is key. If this is played in Atlanta, you take the Falcons — no doubt about it.  But with the game played in New York, it gives the Giants a legitimate shot. Both offenses are quite impressive. Even there. Both have good defenses. Even there. I just want to see the Giants lose so I’ll go Falcons here.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Giants 24

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons +3 (Confidence: 3/5)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-9) @ DENVER BRONCOS

This is going to be an ugly game. The over/under 33.5 is telling of that. The Steelers D is going to absolutely stifle Tim Tebow and the Broncos. The Steelers have given up an average of 14 PPG during the season and 9.7 PPG in their last 3 games. Pittsburgh’s offense is only averaging 14.3 PPG in their last 3 and 15.6 PPG on the road. I think you see the Steelers score around 17 points, plus or minus 3. How many points can Tebow get the Broncos? Realistically, maybe 10 points, plus or minus 3… if he’s lucky. I think you see the Steelers win by a TD in a low-scoring game. The Steelers are capable of shutting out the Broncos or holding them to a pair of field goals, maybe a touchdown if Tebow gets lucky. The Steelers don’t score a lot of points though, it’s just going to be ground and pound. I say you go Steelers, but I expect their margin of victory to be around 7 in a 13-6 or 17-10 game. With the over/under at 33.5, under 40.5 seems like a lock with the Steelers. I say use the points to tease the Steelers down to -2. I don’t think the Broncos have what it takes to upset a team with as much playoff experience as the Steelers have.

Prediction: Steelers 13 – Broncos 6

Teaser: Steelers -2/Under 40.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

It is good to be back. The holidays are always crazy. We finished the year strong going 2-0 in week 16 and hitting our top pick in the Falcons in week 17. We are ready to roll into the playoffs with more juice in our pockets. It is wild card weekend and four games are on tap. The playoffs are extremely tough to pick against the spread. In the last two years, the wild card dogs went 6-2 ATS. I may have to play the trend and pick every dog on this week’s card. If I’m not taking the points, I am staying away as I think you take the points in all four games this weekend.

CINCINATTI BENGALS (+4) @ HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans have made the playoffs for the first time in their history and will have to rely on their rookie T.J. Yates who is 2-3 as a starter and has an average QB rating of 80.3. T.J. faced the Bengals on December 11th and pulled out the victory, winning a tight one 20-19. In that game, Yates threw for 300 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. The player to watch in this one is obviously Arian Foster who will take on the 10th ranked run defense in the NFL. When Arian faced the Bengals just a few weeks ago, he was completely shut down. Foster was held to 41 rushing yards and posted his worst per-carry average of the season, racking up just 2.7 YPC.

This game should be another tight one. I’ll trust the Bengals D to contain Adrian Foster again and put the pressure on Yates to win this game with his arm. In their last game, the Texans won 20-19.  I expect a similar tight, low-scoring games so I will gladly take the Bengals with the points. However, with the Texans incredible defense, I am not overly confident in the Bengals outscoring the Texans here.

You can take the Bengals with a good chance of an outright win and the likelihood of the cover. You can also take the Bengals at +11 for an extra cushion and rely on the under 45 knowing that two very good defenses will be facing a rookie quarterback. In any event, I think you see the Bengals make this a tight game and there’s no doubt that this should be a low-scoring contest. The Texans may win this one by a field goal, but with a tight game, I’ll favor the points. I’ll stick with the teaser for an extra points boost since I am very confident that the story of this game will be each team’s defense.

Prediction: Bengals 20 – Texans 17

Pick Against the Spread: Bengals +4 (Confidence: 2/5)

Teaser: Bengals +11/Under 45 (Confidence: 3/5)

DETROIT LIONS (+10.5) @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The Saints have destroyed everyone at home so why should this game be any different? I see a lot of merit in taking the Saints (-10.5), but this is the playoffs, where the dogs are 6-2 ATS in the last two years. There are some very compelling reasons to take the Saints. The Saints are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games and are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games. The Saints also have a ridiculous 41 PPG home scoring average. You can expect the Saints to light up the Lions pass defense, who is ranked 22nd against the pass.

You can’t just write off the Lions though. I think and hope you see a competitive game. Afterall, the Lions 5th-ranked offense can keep up with the Saints 1st-ranked offense. I don’t like how the Lions finished the season though. Although they were 3-3 in their last 6 games, their 1-4-1 ATS record has me concerned. The Lions were battling some injuries though and two of those games were against Green Bay.  The Lions can still cover 10.5 on the road as the Lions still manage 28.9 PPG when travelling.

The Saints have faced the Lions very recently,  just about a month ago on December 4. The Saints defeated the Lions at home 31-17 as 9-point favorites. Stafford threw for over 400 yards, but the Lions were penalized 11 times for 107 yards and missed two field goals, which was the difference maker in that game. Add the two missed field goals and the Lions get the cover. The Lions also got themselves in a hole early, giving up a 17-0 lead to the Saints before getting on the scoreboard in the 2nd quarter.

It’s tough to beat the same team twice so hopefully the Lions can learn from their mistakes and minimize their errors. I’m not saying the Lions will beat the Saints, but I hope they can cover 10.5 points. If they can prevent the Saints from scoring two unanswered touchdowns to start the game, you will see the Lions compete throughout this game. The Lions outscored the Saints 10-7 in the 2nd half so this game is mostly a matter of how the Lions start this game. I am going to take the points in a low-confidence play. I would recommend passing on this game though or playing it lightly as a Saints domination could also likely occur.

Prediction: Saints 31 – Lions 27

Pick Against the Spread: Lions +10.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

Good morning and Happy New Year from the West Coast. It’s so weird that football games start at 10:00 AM. I just woke up hungover and it’s halftime in the 1:00 games. How do these people live? Week 17 is always a crap shoot anyway.

At 4:00, I think you continue to pound the Bucs by taking the Falcons (-9.5) at home and go with Pittsburgh (-7) on the road over Cleveland. In the rest of the games, I’ll stick with Tim Tebow at home to rebound from last week’s embarrassing loss, San Diego (+2.5) over Oakland, and Seattle (+2.5) over Arizona. My top 4:00 play has to be the Falcons followed by the Steelers.

Sorry I missed the 1:00 action, but my only play there would have been Bears (+1.5) over Vikings.

Happy New Years!

Merry Christmas everyone.  I have been getting into the habit of posting my football picks on Saturdays, but all of the football action is today due to the holiday. All I can do at this point is throw up some quick picks. Not a whole lot of games that I like anyway. We’ll have to tease the Pats and Ravens and go with the Panthers over the Bucs.

TEASER: PATRIOTS (-2) over Miami w/ RAVENS (-4) over Browns

We have two home teams with big spreads to cover that should be a lock to win as they’re both jocking for playoff position in the AFC. The Patriots should take care of business at home over the Dolphins and the Ravens should take care of business against the Browns.

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Dolphins 20

Prediction: Ravens 27 – Browns 13

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots (-2) and Ravens (-4) Teaser (Confidence: 3/5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-9) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have been awful losing 8 straights games and going 1-7 ATS in that stretch. The Panthers dominated the Bucs 3 weeks ago when they played in Tampa 38-19. I don’t see any reason why this week should be different. The Panthers defense is a huge liability and can let you down, but there’s no doubt the Panthers will outscore the Bucs here. The Bucs average 16.7 PPG on the road and 16.0 PPG in their last three games. Carolina has averaged 29.8 PPG in their last three games. They are rolling right now. Tampa’s defense has also given up an average of 36.7 PPG in their last three games.

Prediction: Panthers 31 – Bucs 17

Pick Against the Spread: Panthers -9 (Confidence: 3/5)

We are coming in to tonight’s Monday Night game 6-0 ATS in our last 6 Monday Night picks. I would ordinarily just pass over this game as too close to call, but I have to post a pick to keep the Monday Night streak alive! I’m going to recommend a teaser by taking the points and the under.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS (-3)

Despite Big Ben getting the start tonight, the 49ers stay at 3-point favorites. I say take advantage of the points. This is a pretty even matchup on both sides of the ball. While the 49ers have averaged 28 PPG at home and 23.6 PPG throughout the season, the 49ers offense has struggled lately, scoring just 19 against the Cardinals and putting up 6 on the Ravens. Patrick Willis is also out this game.

This is a big game for the Steelers, who have an opportunity to move up a game on the Ravens in the AFC North race, which is the difference between a No. 1 or 2 seed vs. a No. 5 seed. In what will no doubt be a tight game, I will want the points on my side, especially since the Steelers could win outright.

With both defenses giving up a combined 18.6 PPG in their last 3 games — that’s 6.3 PPG allowed by Pittsburgh and 12.3 PPG allowed by the 49ers — the under 37.5 is compelling. What is even more compelling is adding the points to the over and taking the Steelers at +10.

I usually like to tease Monday Night games and see the perfect opportunity to take points while betting on the under with two of the best defenses in the league squaring off. Points will be tough to come by for both teams and both teams love to run the football and eat up the clock. I don’t think anyone is expecting the 49ers to win by 10+ points and I think the highest possible score you end up seeing tonight is 24-20. Take the Steelers at +10 with the under 44.5.

Prediction: Steelers 16 – 49ers 13

Pick Against the Spread: Teaser Steelers +10, Under 44.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

We have now hit our last 6 Monday Night Picks! The season is winding up and teams are jocking for playoff positions. Fantasy football playoffs are in full gear. Let’s see what’s on this week’s card.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5)

Don’t let the Redskins shootout against the Patriots last week fool you. The Redskins offense isn’t that good. The Patriots defense is just that bad. With all of the injuries to the Redskins defense, Tom Brady took advantage and posted 34 points. I expect Eli Manning to pick apart the Redskins secondary this game while the Giants defense limits the Redskins offensively. Last December when the Giants played the Redskins at home, they won 31-7 as 7-point favorites. I’m expecting a similar outcome, but a bit tighter. This is essentially a playoff game as the Giants and Cowboys are both on top of the division at 7-6 and you can expect the Cowboys to defeat the Bucs on Saturday Night.

Prediction: Giants 27 – Redskins 13

Pick Against the Spread: Giants -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

I’m always looking to bet against the Rams. I have bet against them several times this year with great successs, although the Rams did burn me once when they upset the Saints at home. With the Rams 2-11 ATS record, there hasn’t been a better team to bet against this year. I was riding the Bengals earlier this season, but not lately with their tough schedule in their last 5 games. They have been on a rough five-game stretch going 1-4 (0-4-1 ATS), but their schedule has been brutal (Houston, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh twice). When they faced the Browns on the road, the Bengals cost me as they won 23-20. That was a division game though. My worry is that the Bengals rarely win by double digits. However, earlier in the season, the Bengals topped the Jaguars, Colts, and Seahawks all by more than 10 and the Rams are just as bad as those teams. The Bengals are averaging 10 PPG more than than Rams and their defense gives up 5 PPG less than the Rams defense. Sam Bradford is also doubtful and may miss this game. With Bradford out, the Rams will have to rely on a banged up Steven Jackson who will be facing a tough Bengals run defense. Chris Long is also questionable and is another Rams player on the long list of injured Rams.

Prediction: Bengals 24 – Rams 13

Pick Against the Spread: Bengals -6 (Confidence: 3/5)

TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

I hate taking another road game, but I have had a lot of success picking road favorites this year against the spread. Although the Colts are winless, they are 4-9 ATS so they have been the spoiler a few times against the spread. They’re averaging only 14 PPG, so I don’t expect them to score much as the Titans are playing great defense. The Titans have faced a lot of good offenses lately and they have not given up more than 24 points since facing Houston back in October. They held the Saints to 22, the Bills to 17, the Bucs to 17, the Falcons to 23, the Panthers to 3, and the Bengals to 24. Assuming you get another solid performance out of the Titans defense and expect  Chris Johnson to run all over the Colts 30th ranked run defense, the Titans should cover the spread. Although Chris Johnson has dissappointed fans and fantasy owners, he has over 150 rushing yards in 2 of his last 3 games against the Bucs and Bills.

Prediction: Titans 27 – Colts 13

Pick Against the Spread: Titans -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

BONUS TEASER: GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS w/ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (PK) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Sunday’s picks went 1-1-1 ATS. We hit on the Saints, the Broncos pick pushed thanks to more 4th quarter heroics from Tim Tebow, and our Patriots pick failed to cover by 2 points since the Pats escaped Washington with a 7-point win in what was a shootout. I warned that the Patriots defense would be a liability. There’s no doubt the Pats would outscore the Redskins, but the Pats defense hurt what would have been an awesome Sunday.

Since we are 5-0 ATS in our last 5 Monday Night picks, I have to throw out a pick on tonight’s game although it’s a meaningless game between two awful teams. Who picked out this year’s Monday night games? The game selection has been absolutely horrific. Last week it was the Jaguars game. This week it is the Seahawks game. Come on guys.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-9)

The 5-7 Seahawks host the 2-10 Rams on Monday Night. The Seahawks have been on  a nice little run winning their last 3 of 4 games and covering the spread in their last 4 of 5 games. The Rams, on the other hand, have been a great target to bet against week in and week out. The Rams are 2-10 ATS matching their season record. With the Rams decimated by injuries and playing terrible against the spread this year, I am going to go with the Seahawks. However, Sam Bradford is expected to return tonight.

With the Rams 11.7 PPG, don’t expect their offense to do much. The Seahawks offense has averaged 18 PPG on the year, but they’ve turned it up lately increasing their PPG average to 24.0 PPG in their last 3 games. Seattle won this contest just three weeks ago in St. Louis 24-7. I’m expecting a similar outcome when this one is played up in Seattle.

The 9-point spread is a bit too much to take with the Seahawks, but with how bad the Rams have been on both sides of the ball, I still think you see the Seahawks win by double digits. I usually like to tease Monday Night games with the over/under, but with the over/under at 38, this one could go either way. The Rams offense may struggle to find points and while over 31 looks enticing since it’s such a low number, a 20-10 Seahawks win is within the realm of possibilities and I could equally see a 27-20 game so teasing the game to under 45 is equally not as enticing. I say stick with the Seahawks and give up the points, but don’t go all out.

Prediction: Seahawks 24 – Rams 13

Pick Against the Spread: Seahawks -9 (Confidence: 3/5)

I just went back and was looking at my Monday Night picks. We are 5-0 ATS in our last 5 Monday Night picks. Read ‘em and weep: Chargers, Saints, Patriots, Packers, and Chiefs.  Boom goes the dynamite! Last week our picks went 4-2 ATS. Taking a look at this week, it’s definitely not as easy as last week, but let’s get into it.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-9) @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

In the Redskins last 8 games, they are 1-7 (2-6 ATS). I was able to capitalize off them last week when the Jets were one of my top plays. The Redskins are depleted with injuries. LaRon Landy is out, London Fletcher is questionable, Trent Williams is out, and Fred Davis is out. With the Patriots nearly doubling the Redkins in PPG, I’ll take the Pats. The Pats are averaging 30.2 PPG compared to the Redskins 16.8 PPG. The only downside to this pick is the Patriots defense can be a liability (the Colts scored 24 points against them last week). With the AFC race pretty tight and the Pats still vying for a No. 1 or 2 seed, I think you’ll see a focused Patriots team ready to roll. The last time the Patriots faced the Redskins was in 2007 as 15-point favorites and they crushed the Redskins 52-7.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Redskins 17

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -9 (Confidence: 4/5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) @ TENNESSEE TITANS

You usually see the Saints getting good spreads on the road since they’re 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. I have played the Saints a few times this year and their 8-4 ATS record has rewarded me more than once. Although the Saints let me down on the road against the Rams, I picked them on the road against the Jaguars earlier in the season and two weeks ago against the Giants. The Saints are carrying a ton of momentum right now, winning AND covering their last four games since they had that let down on the road against the Rams. In that four-game stretch, the Saints beat the Falcons on the road, hopefully putting their road woes to bed. In their last three, the Saints have put up an average of 459 YPG and 35.3 PPG.

Tennessee has also be playing very good football and there’s no doubt that this game will be competitive. The Titans have won 3 of their last 4 games and have covered the spread in all four games. The 7-5 Titans simply beat the teams they’re supposed to beat and get beat by the teams that are supposed to beat them. Recent wins for the Titans include the Bills, Bucs, Panthers, Colts, Browns, and Broncos — all middle-of-the-pack teams. Losses include the Falcons, Bengals, Texans, and Steelers.

Simply put, the Saints are a better football team and should be able to win this game on the road, but their poor record against the spread on the road is preventing me from getting too confident.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Titans 17

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CHICAGO BEARS @ DENVER BRONCOS (-3.5)

This is the first time that I am picking the Broncos all season long. With the Broncos red hot right now, there hasn’t been a better time to pick them when they’re playing at home and their opponent will have both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte sidelined. The Bears put up a mere 3 points last week with Forte and Cutler out. It took 5 straight Broncos wins and covers against the spread for me to finally get on the Tim Tebow express — don’t let me down Tebow. The Broncos always win close though so buy a half point and take this line at -3 just in case the Broncos win by a field goal like they always love to do. Points will be hard for the Broncos to come by against this defense, but I’m not counting on the Bears scoring much. I’m hoping that the Broncos defense that played in the three games prior to the Vikings game show up when they held the Chargers, Jets, and Chiefs to 13 points or less.

Prediction: Broncos 20 – Bears 13

Pick Against the Spread: Broncos -3 (Confidence: 3/5)