Attention Everyone,

I have a very important announcement to make: CANNON BALL!

If you’re a dedicated readers of the site, I’m sure you’ve seen me plug the pick ‘em league like crazy. I’m going to do it 1 more time because I want to ensure that we have a competitive league with active members. I want to make sure that everyone knows that it’s FREE to join and a prize will be on the line to keep things interesting and active.

The winner of THE PASS RUSH Pick ‘Em league on Yahoo will win one of these bad boys: an NFL Shop custom t-shirt with the team and player name/number of his choice. The league information, link to register, and link to the homepage is located on the right side of the page above the frosty beer mug (if you want to donate beer so we can continue our awesomeness).

You don’t want to be late to the party and have to play catch up next week, you want to start picking games this week, so hurry up and sign up. You still have 24 hours before 1:00 kickoff tomorrow.

I also wanted to note that Brandon is amazing at college basketball (9-0 in his last 9) over at THE TRIPLE DOUBLE and I’m getting hot with my hockey picks at THE ONETIMER (7-2 in my last 9) and I have 5 great picks tonight.

Thank you for your continued patronage of THE PASS RUSH.

I don’t like that 6/7 of my picks are road teams, but hell, I like picking proven winners over lousy teams and I think the spreads are pretty favorable.  I usually leave the college games up to Brandon, but I like to post up a few more picks for you to consider on Saturday.  I’ve faired pretty well in college football.  I don’t know my exact record, but I feel that I’m right in the 57-62% area ATS.

STUFF YOU CARE ABOUT:

READ SOME VERY IMPORTANT ANNOUNCMENTS HERE — You’ll want to enter THE PASS RUSH Pick ‘Em league if you want a chance to win a FREE custom NFL shop t-shirt just for joining the league and playing.

BRANDON’S WEEK 11 PICKS

MY WEEK 10 NFL PICKS

RANKED BY SEMI-STRENGTH:

THE PASS RUSH WINS AGAIN: 3-1 in the early games!

1.) Kentucky -3 over VANDERBILT — This one looks like an easy winner to me.  Kentucky (5-4) averages 27.1 PPG to Vandy’s (2-8) 16.7 PPG. 10/13 Covers.com experts agree. (W)

2.) Boston College -4 over VIRGINIA — BC has covered their last 5/6. UVA was rolled over by Miami, GT, and Duke in their last 3 games.  I think they get rolled over again and the spread is pretty favorable. (P)

3.) Houston -4 over CENTRAL FLORIDA — Houston has been involved in crazy games lately.  Winning 46-45 and 53-50 in their last two contests.  They’ll just flat-out outscore you.  Take advantage of those close games since the books think they’ll win every week by 1-3 points.  9/11 experts at Covers.com agree with me here. (L)

4.) Clemson -8 over NC STATE — NC State has lost 4 of their last 5 and they can’t stop anyone on defense to save their life.  They’ve given up an average of 41.4 points in their last 5 games.  They’ve been decimated by injuries.  In their defense, they have the offense to hang in games, but Clemson looks to run up the score on them.  With Clemson allowing just 17.3 PPG, I like the odds. (W)

5.) PITTSBURGH -6.5 over Notre Dame — Notre Dame has been a great team to bet against, 2-7 ATS.  Pittsburgh has been a great team to bet on, 6-2 ATS.  Pitt’s 5.1 yards per carry is top notch and ND gives up 148.8 rushing yards per game and 173.3 rushing yards in their last 3 games.

6.) Miami -3 over NORTH CAROLINA — Another favorable spread.  UNC lost to FSU and Virginia, so I think that tells you just how weak their team is.  However, in their defense, they are coming off two impressive wins over Virginia Tech and Duke, but with Miami 5-1 in their last 6 games, I’ll take my chances on ‘em. (L)

7.) Georgia Tech -9 over DUKE — GT has won 7 straight going 6-1 ATS in that span.  Don’t underestimate Duke though, they can pass the football and GT has some defensive issues, but I would rather ride the red-hot GT team.  GT has covered 5 straight against Duke. (W)

Business is picking up.  Brandon is posting college basketball picks over at THE TRIPLE DOUBLE and he is red hot right now, starting the season 9-0.  NINE AND O BABY! The man told you that he is a college basketball prodigy, even more than a college football guru.  Do not question the method to his madness. If he tells you to take St. Bonaventure or Wofford, you take St. bonaventure and Wofford. Do not ask questions for you know nothing! Put another way, he is the Gordon Gekko of college basketball and you are the guy that lights his cigarette and pours his scotch.

For his Friday night picks, he went with St. Bonaventure as his 2 unit bet over Cleveland State in a pick ‘em game. You see Cleveland State and you think green uniforms and a team that did well in the NCAA tournament a year or two ago and you think you’ve found a winner. Then you see Cleveland State down by 20 at the half and curse at the basketball gods. He also took Wofford, who is returning 5 starters and getting 17.5 points against Pittsburgh, who lost almost every starter from last year’s squad, and what do you get? You get Wofford not only covering by double digits, but you’re up by 3 points with 3 minutes left to play as a 17.5 point underdog.

This is the type of information that you get at our the sister site of THE PASS RUSH, THE TRIPLE DOUBLE. Again, quick links to our network of sports-betting websites are at the top and sides of the site. Money simply cannot buy this type of service, for we do not make you pay for such services. Instead, we prefer our performance to be rewarded with cold frosty brews (a.k.a you can donate us beer via PayPal by clicking the frosty beer mug on the right side of the page). So earn yourself a little karma and send over an ice-brewed 16 oz. beer and you’ll keep winning loads of units kamikaze-style, I promise you this.

In other news, THE ONETIMER is back to kicking ass and taking names. When I started picking hockey games, I had some bad beats, but wanted to announce that I am now 7-2 in my last 9 picks for 4.2 units of profit (with the 2 losses coming via shootouts). You can read the method to my madness at THE ONETIMER.

MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT: Sign up for our NFL Pick ‘Em ATS league on Yahoo. Links and league info are on the right side above the frosty beer. I’m going to sweeten the pot too.  Are you ready for it?  Wait for it, wait for it… the winner of the pick ‘em league will win an NFL Shop custom t-shirt with the team and player name of their choice, so sign up and play!  Boom!

Before we get into this game, remember to sign up for THE PASS RUSH’s pick ‘em league.  Here are quick links to my NFL picks and Brandon’s NCAA picks.

#25 WEST VIRGINA (7-2) @ #5 CINCINNATI (9-0) -9.5

We have a tremendous college football game for Friday night.  The Mountaineers will travel to Cincinnati to face the undefeated Bearcats.  Let’s try to break down this matchup and see which team is a good pick against the spread.  Cincinnati has been better against the spread this year than West Virginia: Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS and West Virginia is 2-6 ATS.

Cincinatti is averaging 40 PPG and allowing 16.4 PPG.  West Virginia is averaging 28.3 PPG and allowing 20.9 PPG.  When these teams met last year, Cincinnati won 26-23.  Cincinnati has a much better team this year though.  Cincinatti has a clear advantage with their passing game.  Cincy is averaging 355 yards per game, 100 more yards per game than West Virginia’s passing average.  West Virginia’s edge is their rushing defense.  WVU gives up 120 rushing yards per game (3.4 YPR) compared to Cincy’s 172 yard average (4.2 YPR), but that doesn’t matter that much since Cincinnati is a pass first, run second team.

Tony Pike might get some action this game, but it will be backup Zach Callaros that will be getting the start for Cincinnatti once again.  No worry about Pike sitting out,  Callaros is playing just as well, maybe even better than Pike was.  Callaros is averaging 12.3 yards per passing attempt and has 10 TDs and just 1 INT.

I would have been all over Cincinnati if I didn’t see what happened to them last week.  Cincinnati barely topped Connecticut last week, winning by a score of 47-45.  UCONN was able to compile 462 yards with most of the damage being done by their RB.  With WVU’s serious run threat in Noel Devine, I would be hesitant on taking Cincinatti due to that fact.  However, Devine does have an injured ankle, but is listed as probable.

In Cincinnati’s defense, they are ranked in the top 10 in passing, scoring, and total offense.  They put up over 700 yards against UCONN.  That is not a typo, they had over 700 yards of offense last week.  The Bearcats average 482 yards of offense per game, ranked 3rd in the country.

The one common opponent I want to take a look at is South Florida since that is a quality football team and will give us a tell on how these teams will fair against each other.  Cincinnati beat South Florida 34-17 and West Virginia lost to South Florida 30-19.  Cincy also rolled over Louisville 41-10 and WVU beat Louisville by a mere 17-9 score.

The over/under is set at 56.  With these offenses, I think you’ll likely see the over hit.  Although the number is very tempting to take, it’s still a bit too high for me to bite, especially since WVU has averaged just 18 PPG in their last 2 games.  These offenses average close to a combined 900 yards and 68 PPG.  I am a bit concerned that Cincy’s defense was exposed last week by UCONN, but WVU was been held to under 20 points in their last 2 games to just average teams.

Fox Sports is calling Cincinnati to win 37-23.  At Covers.com, 7/12 experts like Cincinnati to cover and 59% of the consensus vote is favoring Cincinnati.

I am going with Cincinnati to cover in this game.  Cincinnati’s passing game is just off the charts and I don’t think WVU has an answer for it. If WVU wants to stay in this game, they’ll have to keep the Cincinnati defense honest and prevent them from stacking the box.  If Cincinnati can stop the WVU running game and have their secondary take care of business, this game could be one sided and Cincinnati could find themselves up big in a hurry.

Prediction: Cincinatti 34 – West Virginia 20

Free Pick: Cincinatti -9.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

I should have done this way earlier, but it hasn’t come to my mind until now.  There’s still 8 more weeks in the season, so this can still be fun.  I created  Pick ‘Em against the spread league on Yahoo!  Now our members can create a team and enter their picks to see how they fair against me and our other readers.  There’s a link on the right to access the league, which is located above the beer mug.  Cheers!

Feel free to join the league.  Here is the information:

League Homepage: http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/75814

Register Here: http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/register/joingroup

League ID: 75814

League Password: thepassrush

Thanks to our readers who already signed up already.  Don’t forget to enter your picks before the games start.

Vegas Martin’s top 6 NFL plays from week 9 went 4-2 against the spread this past weekend, so it’s good that we ended up on the winning side yet again.  That is now 3-straight winning weeks and our last 4/5 weeks have been positive. Unfortunately, the top 2 plays didn’t pan out, but we made up all that ground and then some when we found 2 winners at the 4:00 time slot and got another easy win on Monday night with the Steelers over the Broncos pick.

I hope anyone who took a hit on the Packers or Ravens picks boldly followed me into the 4:00 games and the Monday Night game to take back whatever was ours for the taking. New rule, never bet against a home underdog off the bye week. I have been preaching about that all season long, but failed to take my own advice. I felt the Packers over the Bucs and Ravens over the Bengals were both strong plays despite that significant factor to their disadvantage, but we learned the hard way and will not make that mistake again.

Don’t forget to check out Brandon’s week 11 college picks and to sign up for our Yahoo pick ‘em league.

On to the week 10 NFL action to find out where we can make the easy money betting against the spread.

CHICAGO BEARS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS -3

We start getting into Thursday Night football, so this is the first matchup of the week.  I don’t really like it.  Both teams have been hard to figure out this season.  Both teams were hugely disappointing last week and I advised our readers to pass on the Bears/Cardinals and 49ers/Titans game for exactly those reasons.  I thought I was onto something with the Cardinals solid play on the road this season, but I had the Panthers loss fresh in my head, so I had to pass on that game last week.  72% of the money is on the 49ers to cover in this one.

I had an inkling that the Titans would defeat the 49ers last week, which is why I put that game in the “no action” category, but I wasn’t about to bet on the 1-6 Titans on the road.  These teams match up pretty evenly on paper, but the home/away statistics give the 49ers the edge.  The Bears on the road score just 16 PPG and allow 26.5 PPG.  At home, the 49ers score 23.8 PPG and allow 22.2 PPG.  The most significant injury to the 49ers is CB Nate Clements.  Without having a lockdown corner who can cover speedsters Devin Hester and Johnny Knox is a huge blow to the 49ers.  A potential huge loss for the Bears is DT Tommy Harris, who is likely facing a suspension for his punch to a Cardinals offensive lineman.  I think I threw out enough information out there for you to make your own decision on this game, but I simply don’t like it as I do not see either team being a strong play.  I think it’s a tight game and I think Cutler has a great chance to expose the 49ers secondary, but the 49ers also have a chance to expose the Bears run defense who will be without Tommy Harris.  I’m leaning towards taking the points in this one.

Prediction: Bears 23 – 49ers 20

Free Pick: Bears +3 (Confidence: 2/5)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ NEW YORK JETS -6.5

The Jags couldn’t even cover 6.5 at home over the Chiefs.  Although they were in the money the entire game until a late score cost them the cover.  The Jaguars have been pretty dismal all season long and their pass defense is what has hurt them the most.  I’m expecting Mark Sanchez to rebound after some recent poor performances now that he’s had 14 days to go over his mistakes and prepare for a sub-par pass defense.  The key factor in this pick is the Jets are at home off the bye week.  We saw how home teams off the bye week faired last week, so I think the Jets cover in this one, although I believe it will be too close with the spread to make it a strong play.  They may cover by a mere half point, so I don’t love the game.

Prediction: Jets 24 – Jaguars 17

Free Pick: Jets -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

BUFFALO BILLS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -6.5

The Titans are 2-0 with Vince Young, but unfortunately for their team, the move was made a few games too late.  With the NFL’s leading rusher against the league’s worst run defense, I think this is a great game to take.  The Bills surrender an average of 173.6 rushing yards per game and their offense has been pretty much non-existent as they average just 15.6 PPG.  The Titans averaging 32 PPG in their last two games.  I’m counting on Chris Johnson to go nuts this game and I don’t think the Bills have the offense to keep up.  Injuries to note: WR Justin Gage is out, WR Terrell Owens is questionable.

Prediction: Titans 24 – Bills 16

Free Pick: Titans -6.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -16.5

I played the Vikings -10 over the Lions earlier in the season and took down a 27-13 victory.  The Vikings are another team that is at home off the bye week. Despite jumping out to a 17-3 lead, the Lions were defeated 32-20 last week against the Seahawks.   With the Lions surrendering 29.6 PPG and Stafford already throwing 12 INTs on the season, I think the Vikings still cover the high spread, but the spread is just too high for me to take it.  If the Lions manage to score just 2 TDs, they’ll likely end up in the money.  I love betting against the Lions, but the spread is just too high in this one for me to bite.

Prediction: Vikings 31 – Lions 13

Free Pick: No Action

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7

With both teams at 6-2, 1st place in the AFC North is on the line.  The Bengals are without a doubt, this year’s biggest surprise.  For a team to get 2 more wins halfway through the season than they got in the entire 2008 season is remarkable.  If you recall from earlier in the season, the Bengals got the best of the Steelers the last time they played in Cincy.  The Steelers had a 20-9 lead with 9 minutes left to play, but the Bengals scored 2 TDs to win the game 23-30.

Chad Ochocinco is back to his usual tactics, sending the Steelers players Heinz mustard since they won’t be able to KETCH-UP.  Poor idea on his part since the last thing the Bengals need is for the Steelers to get more motivation to want to stomp the Bengals after being defeated by them earlier in the season.

The Steelers are rolling and I think they win this one, but I don’t like them very much with the spread.  The Steelers just aren’t very good against the spread this year.  They are 3-5 ATS compared to the Bengals 5-3 record ATS.  With a pretty even matchup on paper, I think you’re better served taking the 7 points on a 6-2 team that is just as hot as the Steelers.  I’m anticipating a Steelers win by 3-6 points.

Prediction: Steelers 23 – Bengals 17

Free Pick: Benglas +7 (Confidence: 2/5)

DENVER BRONCOS -3.5 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

The Redskins are another team that I love betting against.  With their team morale at a new all-time low, I think this is a good spot to bet against them.  They used to have a solid defense, but once the D saw that they don’t have the offense to help them out, they’ve pretty much given up on the season.  Not only did the Redskins lose Chris Cooley, but they also lost Clinton Portis, and their back RB Betts is questionable with an ankle injury.  With those injuries against a very solid Broncos defense, the Redskins will struggle to find points.  The Broncos are coming off two straight losses by wide margins.  My confidence has wained in them.  I also hate betting on west coast teams playing east coat teams at 1:00 since history shows that the east coast home team has a significant advantage.  I like the Broncos here due to their strong defense against a weak offense, but with the two straight losses making the Broncos look overrated has my confidence in them shaky at best.

Prediction: Broncos 23 – Redskins 13

Free Pick: Broncos -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -13.5 @ ST. LOUS RAMS

I wonder what our reader TGIS has to say about this one.  He said he’ll take any opportunity to take advantage of high spreads against the Saints in order to take the points.  This is the Rams though.  They give up an average of 28 PPG and only score 9 PPG.  I love this spread since the Rams will likely be held to under 10 points, which means a mere 24 points will get the Saints in the money.  You can basically count on the Saints to put up points every time that they touch the ball.

I already have to break my “home team off the bye week rule,” which is what the Rams are, but this is the Saints vs. the Rams!  Last week with the Packers and Ravens pick, at least the Packers have a suspect defense and the Bengals are a legitimate team.  I think this is an exception to the rule.  The league’s best offense against the league’s worst defense and non-existent offense.  How can you say no to that?  The Rams lost to the Colts 42-6 and I think you see similar results in this one.  I don’t see how you can pass on this one, but if you’re a big believer in the “don’t bet against a home dog off the bye week” rule, then this one is not for you.

Prediction: Saints 38 – Rams 10

Free Pick: Saints -13.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

ATLANTA FALCONS -1.5 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

I’ve been pretty high on the Falcons all season long.  The Panthers have been looking better after their upset win over the Cardinals, but they couldn’t top the Saints after jumping to an early lead.  92% of the public likes the Falcons and 4/5 experts are Covers.com like them too.  Atlanta defeated the Panthers earlier in the year 28-20 and I think you see similar results in this one.  DeAngelo Williams is also questionable for the game.

Prediction: Falcons 26 – Panthers 20

Free Pick: Falcons -1.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS -9.5

The Bucs got their first win of the season last week against the Packers.  The Dolphins have been really impressing me.  They were able to hang in with their against the Patriots on the road and have been even more impressive at home, almost beating the Saints and Colts.  Miami is averaging 31.5 PPG at home.  I couldn’t believe that stat when I looked it up.  With the Bucs 30th ranked defense, the Dolphins should easily dominate this game, but the spread seems high to me.  I like the Dolphins to cover, but the spread is too high to make it a strong play.

Prediction: Dolphins 27 – Buccaneers 17

Free Pick: Dolphins -9.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS -1.5

At least one of these teams will get a win.  Both teams are horrendous, but I would go with the Raiders, who will be at home off the bye week.

Prediction: Raiders 12 – Chiefs 5

Free Pick: Raiders -1.5 (Confidence: 0.5/5)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS -9

The Cardinals have been a very tough team to figure out.  Unbelievable on the road, horrendous at home, which is the opposite of how they’ve played home vs. away in past years.  Kurt Warner is capable of throwing 5 TDs or 5 INTs any week.  Arizona defeated the Seahawks 27-3 earlier this season and that was on the road.  Arizona also covered the spread both times they faced the Seahawks last year.  The trend is your friend.  Arizona is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 against the Seahawks.  I don’t see why things should be different in this one.  One injury to note: WR Anquan Boldin is questionable.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 – Seahawks 17

Free Pick: Cardinals -9 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -2.5

The Eagles are my team as you are well aware.  This is a make or break game for both teams.  With both teams 5-3 and 1 game out of first place in their division, this game has tremendous playoff implications.  Neither team can afford their 4th loss of the season this early in the season, but 1 team will get it.  The Eagles are notorious for playing like crap when they travel on the west coast and I am not to thrilled that they’ll have to face a tough Chargers team on the road this week.  As an Eagles fan, I just have to leave it at that and hope for a win.

Free Pick: No Action

DALLAS COWBOYS -3 @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Cowboys are playing tremendous football right now.  After starting the season 2-2, they’ve rattled off 4 straight wins.  The Packers have been a huge disappointment lately.  Their defense has been getting exposed and I think they have a tough time stopping the Cowboys this week.  Tony Romo has been playing at a high level and with their balanced offense, I don’t see how the Packers will stop them on 3rd down since Witten has had no problems picking up those 3rd and shorts.  The Packers should be able to hang in there with Aaron Rodgers and that impressive Packers passing game, but I think the Cowboys outduel them.  The Packers have a ton of issues on the offensive line, so look for the Cowboys to get a ton of sacks, which will get them more time with the football.  The Packers gave up 6 sacks to the Bucs last week and they average less than 1.5 sacks a game.  Packers DE Aaron Kampman will be out which is a huge blow for them.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Packers 20

Free Pick: Cowboys -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3

I cannot wait for this Sunday Night game.  I’ve been debating whether the Colts or the Patriots will be the one to come out of the AFC.  Both offenses have been outstanding, but the Colts offense has been slowing down lately.  The Colts have the better defense though.  This all comes down to Brady vs. Manning though, and Brady usually gets the best of Manning.  Tom Brady is 5-2 in the regular season and 2-1 in the post-season against Manning.  With Bob Sanders out, Brady must be smiling.  If the Patriots are getting 3 points, I’ll take them.  I think the Patriots win outright, but if they lose, it is likely by 3.  With the Patriots +3 at (-115), I think you see this spread drop to +2.5 by game time.

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Colts 24

Free Pick: Patriots +3 (Confidence: 3/5)

BALTIMORE RAVENS -10.5 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Browns are playing on Monday Night, are you f#@%ing kidding me?  The Browns are another home underdog off the bye week, but here’s another game where it seems too sweet to pass up on.  The Browns average 9.8 PPG.  They scored 6 points against the Bears and 3 points against the Packers.  How is this team going to score more than 10 points against the Ravens?  Maybe being at home on Monday Night will help them, but I just don’t see it happening.  The Browns rank at the bottom of the league in nearly every category.  The Ravens are still averaging 25.8 PPG and the Browns give up 26 PPG.  Provided the Ravens score 24 points, which should be no problem against the Browns, the Ravens end up in the money.

Prediction: Ravens 28 – Browns 10

Free Pick: Ravens -10.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

TOP 8 SPREADS RANKED BY STRENGTH:

I think you have 8 great spreads to choose from this week.  I wanted to note the home teams off the bye week that I picked against.  I know I said that I will no longer bet against home teams off the bye week, but I don’t see how the Rams or the Browns will benefit from the bye week against the strong teams like the Saints and Ravens.  At least I have two excuses for last week.  First, we can finally say it now, but the Bengals are legit.  Second, the Packers have defensive woes and had a blocked punt returned for a TD that hurt them.

Don’t take the rankings too seriously, but that is how I would ranked them.  I think all games a pretty even.  Pick the spreads that you think are the best.

Key game notes are asterisks because that’s how I roll with key information.

1.) Saints -13.5 over RAMS (* Rams are a home team off bye week)

2.) TITANS -6.5 over Bills (* Terrell Owens is questionable)

3.) Cowboys -3 over PACKERS (* Moved up from #6 to #3 based on DE Kampman being out and Packers pass protection struggles)

4.) Ravens -10.5 over BROWNS (* Browns are a home team off bye week)

5.) Patriots +3 over COLTS

6.) Falcons -1.5 over PANTHERS (* DeAngelo Williams is questionable)

7.) Broncos -3.5 over REDSKINS (* Portis and Cooley are out; Backup RB Betts is questionable)

8.) JETS -6.5 over Jaguars

Overall Profit 3.9 units (updated 11/11)

We start the week early again with a game on Tuesday night. We hit last Tuesday with Bowling Green over Buffalo, so lets keep our strong Tuesday night plays rolling.

1) Ohio at Buffalo (-1.5) This Buffalo team plays hard every single time they take the field. Ohio was a great play early in the season, but are simply not playing the type of ball they once were. Ohio faces an angry Buffalo squad after their loss from a week ago to Bowling Green. Ohio has also been plagued by the injury bug and are probably looking at starting their 3rd string QB tonight. If Buffalo can establish the run this game will be over at halftime. Lay the points with Buffalo.

Ohio 27 Buffalo 24 L for 1.1 units

GAME OF THE YEAR #3: FRESNO STATE (+7) at Nevada for 2 units

This line simply blows me away. I have Fresno State as a 9 point favorite!! Strength of schedule alone makes Fresno State a strong play. Just look at who Fresno State has played and how they faired in those games: on the road in Wisconsin lose in the final seconds, lose at home in a competitive match with Boise State, play Cincinnati tough to the final quarter, and then have won 5 straight, including three road wins. Nevada also post three early loses, but against teams not nearly as strong as what Fresno faced: blowout loss on the road to Notre Dame, a terrible loss to Colorado State on the road (who by the way has lost 7 straight games, including a loss to UNLV, who Nevada beat by 35), and a loss at home to a weak Missouri squad. Both teams will get up and down the field and should score a ton of points. However, as Nevada has stepped up in class they have proven not to be the same squad they are against weaker opponents. Fresno State is a talented squad that can win this game outright. I see this game being close, but Fresno wins 54-42.

3)  Fresno State (+245) at Nevada MONEYLINE. OUTRIGHT DOG WINNER!

4) Bowling Green (-3) at Miami (OH) for 1 unit

Bowling Green 35 Miami (OH) 14 W for 1 unit

5) South Florida (+2.5) at Rutgers for 1 unit

Rutgers 31 South Florida 0 L for 1.1 units

6) WVU at Cincinnati (-9) for 1 unit

7) Florida State (+5) at Wake Forest for 1 unit

8) Clemson (-8) at NC State for 1 unit

9) Arizona (+3) at California for 1 unit

Overall Profit 5 units

We gave back a few units, but are still on the plus side of things. I have keyed one game for this weekend that I believe may be the absolute biggest play of the year. I will have it posted as soon as I confirm all the numbers and analysis.

College Basketball has started and I cannot be more excited. I told you before it is where I have found the most success, in terms of money made. Last year I was posting my plays on another site under SMART BET and received roughly 500 hits a day. Last night I tipped things off by going 2-0 with a first half and game side play on Ohio State. There are more college games beginning on Wednesday.

Thanks for all the comments.

I am analyzing tonight’s game between Ohio and Buffalo and will post a play if I find something I really like.

While Brandon is releasing information that makes spreads move by 3 points, Vegas Martin is scouring the week 9 NFL spreads to find where the easy money can be made.  Last week, Vegas’s top 4 plays scored a 3-1 record.  We lost a little on the Chargers, but we knew it could be difficult to cover 16.5 and were warned by reader TGIS about his skepticism of the play.  In all honesty, I was fully expecting the Raiders to put 6 on the board and the Chargers to get a minimum of 24, but sometimes the Chargers just don’t give give a f@#% about beating the pants off a crappy team like the Raiders.  Accordingly, I hedged my bets with plays on the Cowboys, Texans, and Bears, which all hit with relative ease.

If you also read the comments, you hopefully cashed in on the NO/ATL over 55.5 or my teaser of Saints -5.5 or Falcons +18.5 and the over 49.  That’s why you always have to read the comments for updated info on the game.  Feel free to ask me questions on spreads, more feedback on certain games, or whatever is on your mind, and I will always respond, so use the comments section to your advantage.

Don’t forget to check out Brandon’s Week 10 College Football picks.

Now let’s get down to the nitty gritty.

UPDATE: I should have listened to my own advice.  You keep hearing me talking about “home teams off the bye week.”  Well, two of them won and I picked against them.  To my surprise and to everyone’s, not only did the Bucs get their first win of the season against the Packers, but the Bengals also defeated the Ravens.  At least we were able to get some of that back with our Falcons pick, but I’m quite stunned after those two games didn’t work out.  I didn’t think the “at home off the bye week” would be able to help a winless Bucs team. The 4:00 games also treated us well with the Chargers and Seahawks helping us go 2-0 at the 4:00 time slot.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -6.5

I should pass on this game completely since you have the option of a crappy team at -6.5 or a horrendous team at +6.5.  It’s no secret that the Jaguars have sucked it up big time in the past 3 weeks.  They got pantsed by the Seahawks 41-0, failed to cover at home against the Rams, and lost to the winless Titans last week while they watched Chris Johnson gain over 200 yards.  The Chiefs, on the other hand, have the 30th ranked offense and defense.  I was tempted to say take the points, but I’ll stick with the Jaguars at home and give it a mere 2.5/5 rating.  This game screams major fantasy points for MJD.

Prediction: Jaguars 24 – Chiefs 13

Free Pick: Jaguars -6.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (L)

BALTIMORE RAVENS -3 @ CINCINATTI BENGALS

I don’t want to brag, especially since it was a pretty easy call being at home off the bye week against a west-coast team at 1:00, but I called the Broncos first loss last week.  The Ravens offense has been solid all season, but we finally saw glimpses of the old Ravens unbreakable defense last week.  It looks like somebody woke a sleeping giant last week.  This week the Bengals will be the home team off the bye week, which I’ve been preaching about all season, but I’m not going to play that card in this game.  The Ravens are playing with a fire in their belly and with the Bengals at 5-2 and the Ravens at 4-3, the Ravens know they have to win this game if they want a chance to make the playoffs.  Want a reason to take the Ravens? How about their 28.4 PPG, ranked 4th in the league.  Worried about Cedric Benson?  How about the Ravens 4th ranked run defense.  I’m booking the Ravens to win in convincing fashion.

Prediction: Ravens 27 – Bengals 13

Free Pick: Ravens -3 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -9

I was ready to say take the points last week with the 49ers, but I’ve been riding the Colts all season long and with their 2nd ranked offense and defense, I couldn’t take the 49ers even at +13.  I did however give the Colts -13 a mere 2/5 rating showing a complete lack of faith in them covering the high spread.  I will never ever bet on a Texans/Colts game.  Will not do it.  In the last 5 years, these teams are 5-5 ATS against each other, so it’s always a toss up.  The Texans offense is clicking right now and they’re putting up serious points.  I don’t see them winning this one, but I do see them hanging in there blow for blow with the Colts.  I’m actually going to say take the points here, but it’s not a strong play since the Colts can always play out of their minds.  I think the Colts win this one by 4-7 points.  I would wait to see if you could get this spread at Texans +10, but that’s not likely in the cards since 48% of the public is betting the Texans.  The over/under is set at 48 and 92% of the public likes the over and I like it too.  I would like it a lot more though if the Colts didn’t have a 1st ranked defense allowing just 13 PPG though.

Prediction: Colts 27 – Texans 23

Free Pick: Texans +9 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W), Over 48 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

GREEN BAY PACKERS -9.5 @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Now here is a game that I really like.  I was fortunate enough to grab this spread at 9.5 before the line moved to 10 (and it has moved back down to -9.5 again).  You know I love betting against the league’s six worst teams (Lions, Rams, Browns, Raiders, Chiefs, Bucs) each week and it’s been a successful strategy thus far.  With the Bucs 28th ranked offense and defense, I don’t see how they can keep up with Aaron Rodgers and company.  My only concern is the Packers offensive line.  The Packers had rookie LT T.J. Lang starting over Chad Clifton last week and Lang had the pleasure of facing Jared Allen.  You just knew Aaron Rodgers was going to get pressured constantly that game.  This week, the Packers may go back to Clifton.  In any event, I don’t think it really matters since the Bucs are ranked 29th in the league in sacks with a total of 11.  The Bucs should be poised for a beat down, but will the home game off the bye week save them?  Highly doubtful for a team this bad.

Prediction: Packers 34 – Bucs 13

Free Pick: Packers -9.5 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CHICAGO BEARS -3

One of our readers played the Panthers moneyline at 4-to-1 odds last week just on the idea that the Cardinals “are due for a loss” and that’s exactly what happened.  There’s always at least one big suprise each week that leaves you scratching your head.  For some reason, the Cardinals are playing much better football on the road than they are at home.  I can’t figure them out at all this season.  I don’t know what to do in this game, so I’m just going to skip over it entirely.

Prediction: Bears 24 – Cardinals 21

Free Pick: No Action

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -10

Previous Release: We’re still waiting on the line here.  I have a feeling that it will be -10 or -11.  I really like the Falcons here at -9.5.  I’ll keep you posted when the spread is released.

Update: The number came in and it’s -10.  The Redskins are a horrible team.  Their offense is non-existent and their defense is losing focus.  The loan bright spot on their offense is TE Chris Cooley and he will be sidelined this game due to an injury.  The Falcons are playing solid football and just fell short of beating the Saints on the road.  I think this is an easy win for them here.  They should have no problem winning by about 14 points.  A little buyer beware notice on this one, the Falcons are only on 6 days rest while the Redskins have 14 days rest.  I still don’t think it makes a difference in this one, but take that into consideration.

Prediction: Falcons 28 – Redskins 10

Free Pick: Falcons -10 (Confidence: 4/5) (W)

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -10.5

Patriots are another home team off the bye week.  Brady is back to being stupid good again and faces a defense that is ranked just 21st against the pass.  I expect the Patriots to want to come out and get some revenge on a Dolphins team that completely embarrassed them last season on their home turf.  With two weeks of preparation against the wildcat, I’m sure the defense has gone through plenty of reps and done plenty of homework on ways to contain the wildcat.  The Dolphins were pretty flat last week.  Their offense was only responsible for 9 points.  21 points came via a defensive TD and 2 kickoff returns by Ted Ginn.  Don’t expect that to be replicated.  This is another game where I’m tempted to say take the points, but I just don’t see the Dolphins having a lot of success on the road against a red-hot Patriots team.  This isn’t going to be a great spread to take, but I say the Patriots cover by 0.5-3.5 points.  The public is split 50/50 over this game and 3/3 “experts” at Covers.com like the Dolphins so take that for what it’s worth.  In the Patriots 2nd game against the Dolphins last season, they won 48-28, so they know how to beat this team big.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Dolphins 17

Free Pick: Patriots -10.5 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

DETROIT LIONS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10

This pick comes down to whether or not Calvin Johnson will play.  Calvin Johnson is listed as questionable.  If CJ is in the game, I will pass on it.  If CJ is out, I really like the Seahawks -10 and that’s all their is to this one.

Prediction: Seahawks 27 – Lions 13

Free Pick: Seahawks -10 (Confidence: 3.5/5 if Calvin Johnson is inactive) (W)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERs -4

Good job by the Titans on getting their first win of the season.  I don’t like taking the 49ers here since Chris Johnson is capable of winning games himself with just 4 offensive linemen.  Vince Young was also solid last week, completing 15/18 of his passes and rushing for 30 yards although nothing was really impressive from him.  Not a bad game plan for the Titans.  Have Vince Young dink and dunk down the field and hand the ball off to Chris Johnson 2/3rds of the time.  The 49ers are the 2nd ranked run defense though, which bodes well for them in this game and they have Patrick Willis on Chris Johnson like white on rice.  I’m expecting a pretty tight game, likely a couple lead changes, so there’s really no betting edge on this one.

Prediction: 49ers 20 – Titans 17

Free Pick: No Action

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -13

Previous Release: The spread for this game hasn’t been released either, but I think you can expect -13 here unfortunately.  I would love this spread at -9.5, but I don’t think the sports books are about to make it that easy for you.  I will keep you posted once the spread is released.

Update: I nailed this one with the -13 spread being released.  The Panthers really surprised me last week.  I don’t like this spread since the Panthers can get their running game going, which could eat up the clock and give the Saints less opportunities to score points.  The Saints can basically outscore anyone.  Every time they get the ball, you pretty much expect them to score points and they’re averaging an insane 39 PPG.  8/9 experts at Covers.com are picking the Saints.  I like the Saints to cover in this one, but one buyer beware notice: the Panthers beat the Saints outright twice last year, but I’m not putting much faith in that since the Saints are clearly stronger and the Panthers have taken a giant step backwards.  I just think there’s a good chance the Panthers running game gets them in the money this game.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Panthers 20

Free Pick: Saints -13 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -4.5

After the Chargers were unable cover against the Raiders last week albeit at 16.5 points, I would be all over the Giants if the game was played at 1:00 (west coast team playing on the east coast factor), but the Chargers have the advantage of not having to kick off until 4:15.  The Giants are coming off three straight losses and as much as I would love to see them lose their 4th straight, I don’t see it happening at home.  The Giants do have a lot of issues in their secondary though.  They’ve had a lot of injuries to their CBs and their starting safety Kenny Phillips is out and you saw the Eagles dominate that matchup last week. Unfortunately, the Chargers defensive unit is not playing up their potential, otherwise Chargers +4.5 would clearly be the play.  I just think there’s too many question marks in this game to make either team a strong play.  With the way Philip Rivers is playing, I think he really exposes the flaws in the Giants secondary ala Donovan McNabb last week, Kurt Warner the week before that, and Drew Brees the week before that.  I think you’re better off taking the points in this game.  My judgment is clouded in this one since I’m an Eagles fan and rooting for the Giants to lose, but these teams are pretty even on paper so I think you take the points here.

Prediction: Giants 27 – Chargers 24

Free Pick: Chargers +4.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (W)

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3

Another tough NFC matchup.  Eagles are back on track with two straight wins over the Redskins and Giants in convincing fashion.  The offensive line has gelled after the Raiders debacle.  Cowboys are clicking too.  This one has the makings of a back and forth offensive showdown and is equally likely to be a defensive tussle, which makes it hard to call the over or under on the 47.5.  I’m just going to have to pass on this one being an Eagles fan.

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Cowboys 24

Free Pick: No Action

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3 @ DENVER BRONCOS

The Broncos no longer looked like a 6-0 team once they had to face a strong defense like the Ravens.  I’m giving the edge to Pittsburgh in this one due to their solid defense that is also coming off a bye week.  Kyle Orton was held to a dismal 152 yards last week and just 4.1 yards-per-passing-attempt.  With Troy Polamalu back, I think that really takes away the Broncos passing game, which allows that front 7 to focus on stopping the Broncos running attack.  I think you see similar results from last week.  The Broncos defense will give the Steelers a hard time, but I think you want to be on the side of the Steelers in this one.

Prediction: Steelers 23 – Broncos 16

Free Pick: Steelers -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

TOP 6 NFL SPREADS RANKED BY STRENGTH:

As of now, I only really like the top three spreads.

1.) Packers -9.5 over BUCCANEERS (L)

2.) Ravens -3 over BENGALS (L)

3.) FALCONS -10 over Redskins (W)

4.) Steelers -3 over BRONCOS (W)

5.) SEAHAWKS -10 over Lions (* Calvin Johnson likely to play) (W)

6.) Chargers +4.5 over GIANTS (W)

Good luck!

You may feel like you have a case of deja vu.  Don’t worry, you don’t, Ted Ginn just had two separate kickoff returns for TDs, both that were over 100 yards.  That’s why the Dolphins drafted him in the top 10.  People who took the Dolphins +3.5 per my recommendation love this guy!