12-Teams – 1/2 Point PPR

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, FLEX, D/ST, K

1.) Adrian Peterson (RB) – #3 – I wasn’t thrilled with drafting #3. The debate begins at A.P vs. Forte. I knew Forte has more upside PPR value, but A.P. makes up whatever PPR downside he has with him getting more goalline opportunities. I’m concerned with A.P.’s age, but Forte is no spring chicken, he’s just as old. I don’t want to go WR this early with Calvin Johnson since I don’t know what kind of RB I’m getting in Round 2. You need a stud at RB. A.P. is guy that gets drafted in the top 5 every year he’s healthy. Forte is a guy you draft in the last half of Round 1. Adrian Peterson is still the guy to draft at #3 after Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy.

2.) Leo’Veon Bell (RB) – #22 – I was targeting Brandon Marshall in Round 2, who I like just as much as Dez Bryant and A.J. Green and he usually goes mid-Round 2. I was looking to get a WR stud, but they’re all off the board and the next wide receivers up are Alshon and Jordy. Giovani Bernard and Montee Ball are taken by now. I had my eye on Le’Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard as guys I want at the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2. I’ll take Bell at the end of Round 2 in a heartbeat, especially if Brandon Marshall is just off the board. I can wait on a WR since it’s deep. Time to get another stud RB. I’m not worried about Bell getting busted for weed. The NFL won’t suspend him until next year. Steelers say they will give them punishment and I think that’s a one-game suspension tops. I like how I have two stud RBs with my first two picks. Bell had 10-straight games with 10+ points. He’ll give you consistent production you can count on. He’s a beast.

3. ) Antonio Brown (WR) – #27 – Another guy I was high on in Andre Ellington, who was my Round 3 target. Ellington was taken right before me at #26. He was a guy I really wanted, but I’m thrilled with Bell as my RB2. I went RB/RB anyway, so it’s time to go WR. Jordy and Alshon went before that. I’ll take Antonio Brown who was 2nd in the NFL in receptions and 3rd in the NFL in yards in 2014. The guy was a complete stud in getting touches and I think he’ll outpace both Jordy and Alshon in yards. Jordy will get you more TDs and I’m not high on Alshon. Alshon’s numbers will go down since Brandon Marshall is Jay Cutler’s guy. I’m happy with Antonio Brown in the third round and I passed on Randall Cobb to get him. I’m good with that.

4.) Shane Vereen (RB) – #46 – I was shocked to see Vereen here, especially in a PPR league. I have Vereen as the top 36. Frank Gore, Ray Rice, and Trent Richardson all went before him, who I’m not sold on. Ray Rice is great value if you need a RB, but I had him going in the next round. I’m worried about Gore’s age. Trent Richardson is garbage. Had him on my Do Not Draft List. Vereen offers PPR upside and will have a much larger role in the offense this season. I also used a late pick on Patriots RB James “Sweet Feet” White since he’s getting rave reviews in camp and will have a bigger role in the case of an injury to Vereen. I was eyeing Cordarelle Patterson as a target in this spot, but was hoping to land him just a few picks later. I also had Percy Harvin and DeSean Jackson in my queue. My other target in this round was Keenan Allen who was drafted #41 and then Vincent Jackson was drafted #45.

5.)  Cordarrelle Patterson (WR) – #51 – I love getting Cordarrelle in Round 5. I also had my eye on Percy Harvin, but he goes a pick before me at #50, which made my decision a whole lot easier. If I missed on Cordarelle, I would take DeaSean Jackson next. I’m happy with any of those guys. I think Patterson has way more upside than Jackson this year. Jackson will have a solid year, but I see Patterson’s touches doubling this year. I love what Norv Turner is going to do with this guy this year.

6.) Michael Floyd (WR) – #70 – I was shocked that Michael Floyd fell out of the top 50.  He should top Fitzgerald in yards. Fitz will get more TDs and receptions, but Floyd will top him in yards. I took Floyd one spot ahead of T.Y. Hilton, who I also love as I see him as the man guy in Indianapolis this year. Floyd is a phenomenal deep threat who can catch those 20-40 yard bombs for TDs. A great guy to put into the Flex. QB was a need, but I plan on just waiting to see who falls into my lap. I have my reservations about Cam Newton, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan. Brady and Ryan didn’t even crack the top 12 fantasy QBs last year. I figured I can draft Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, or Russell Wilson late.

7.) Golden Tate (WR) – #75 – It was no longer a position of need, but I like Tate’s upside and being a guy who will get a lot of looks in a pass-first offense with Calvin Johnson getting double and triple teamed. Tom Brady and Matt Ryan go immediately after. That’s probably who I should have taken here in retrospect, but I was really surprised to see Tate fall. Thought it’s too early to go TE since I like my options for the next round. The runningbacks are slim pickings at this point. Guys like Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, and Lamar Miller are going around here and I don’t want any of those guys on my roster. Danny Woodhead went #82, who I was looking to pick up in later rounds. With the options at RB right now, I rather go with a rookie like Davonte Freeman or Carlos Hyde later.

8.) Kyle Rudolph (TE) – #94 – I got the guy I wanted here. Olson and Pitta went a few picks before me in this round, but Rudolph was the guy I want and then I would be happy with either Olson or Pitta. I liked this group more than Cameron Jordan, who went #74. Norv Turner loves using TEs like he did in San Diego with Antonio Gates and the did with Cameron Jordan last year in Cleveland. Rudolph also has redzone upside. I’m feeling a breakout season for Rudolph. If he turns out to be a bust, I grabbed Zach Ertz a few rounds later.

9.) Russell Wilson (QB) – #99 – I waited and waited on QB since there’s not one particular guy outside of Manning, Brees, and Rodgers who I was really sold on. I was targeting Philip Rivers, but he goes a pick before me at #98. I love Rivers’ consistency. He’s a lock for 4,000 yards and 26 TDs. I’m more than happy to take Russell Wilson. He’s been having  phenomenal preseason. The guy is just a football player and should only be getting better in his 3rd season. He’s a guy who had 26 TDs in each of his two seasons. Wilson gets no love in fantasy since he doesn’t throw for a ton of yards. However, what he doesn’t get in passing yards, he makes up with rushing yards. He ran for 489 as a rookie and then 539 in his second season. He also ran it in 4 times as a rookie and once last year. He has a new weapon in Percy Harvin who has tons of upside and will help those passing numbers increase. Wilson was the 8th best QB last season. I don’t know why he gets no love. He’ll be a top 10 QB again this year. Kaepernick has fallen way down my draft broad and way down in this draft. I’m happy to pass on Kaepernick to take Russell Wilson. Wilson will have a better fantasy season than Cam Newton, Kaepernik, and RGIII. There’s my bold prediction for the year.

10.) Carlos Hyde (RB) – #118 – I got one of the two rookie RBs I was targeting. I don’t see Frank Gore being the 49ers feature back in the second half of the season. I see Hyde becoming the man in San Fran by Week 10. Hyde may get very few touches to start the season. I see what begins at 5 touches per game increase to 15-20 touches per game towards the end of the season once Gore begins to wear down. Another rookie I liked is Davonte Freeman who went #112. There are literally no good runningbacks to take after Round 3. You can take a Ray Rice or Chris Johnson in Round 4 if you need an RB. After Round 5, I don’t see any RB worth a mid-round pick. The rookie RBs offer way more upside and value.

11.) Zach Ertz (TE) – #123 – I have high expectations for Ertz going into this season. He showed tons of upside in his rookie season, but it didn’t really show up on the stat sheet. This pick was because I think Ertz has a ton of upside in his second year in Chip Kelly’s offense. I got great value and I’m not entirely sold on Kyle Rudolph so this is insurance if Rudolph is a complete bust. Ertz has great chemistry with Nick Foles and he’s a potential breakout candidate and could turn into a stud TE this year. His ceiling can be 800-900 yards yards and 8 TDs. His floor should be 600 yards and 5 TDs.

12.) Saints (D/ST) – #142 – I was targeting the Bengals D/ST, but they got taken earlier.  A D/ST could have waited, but there’s nobody on the board that I’m drooling over. Saints showed some flashes of being a strong D/ST at the beginning of the season, but then faded later in the season. I like the addition of Jarius Byrd at safety. Brandon Cooks or Jarius Byrd returning punts also gives the D/ST some additional upside.

13.) Josh Gordon (WR) – #147 – The guy may be able to play this year. He was the #1 WR in the game last year. He got 10+ receptions, 200+ yard back-to-back games in 2013. He was insane. If Gordon is suspended just 8 games of the season, I have a stud wide receiver for a fantasy playoff push. If you pair Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, and Cordarelle Patterson together at No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, that looks dangerous on paper.

14.) James White (RB) – #166 – James “Sweet Feet” White is getting rave reviews in camp. His Wisconsin highlight reel is ridiculous as were his college stats. I’m handcuffing him to Vereen in case of an injury to Vereen. The White/Vereen combo may also send Ridley to the bench. White has breakout potential if Ridley gets benched or injured.

15.) Carson Palmer (QB) – #171 – I’m loving Palmer as a Round 15 backup QB, especially to a guy like Wilson. Palmer can be started in favorable matchups and has the most upside among backup QBs (compared to the likes of Roethlisberger, Dalton, Tannehill, Flacco). Palmer struggled against strong defenses last year, but lit up bad ones. The Cardinals are going to throw a lot this season. Michael Floyd is emerging as a deep threat and stud WR. Fitzgerald is a possession monster. Andre Ellington can pick up chunks of yards with dump-off passes and looks poised for a breakout season. Rookie WR John Brown is also making a splash. I’m liking what this rookie speedster has the ability to add to the Cardinals passing attack. The Cardinals invested a 3rd rounder in him despite coming out of Pittsburgh State. He hauled in 87 yards on 5 receptions in his preseason debut and added a 30-yard TD in the third preseason game. Palmer is in a great spot to top his yardage totals from last year. You can argue putting the Cardinals offense in the top 10 after the likes of the Broncos, Packers, Saints, Eagles, Bears, Lions, and Patriots.

16.) Blair Walsh (K) – #190 – He’s a kicker. He has a strong leg. He’s on an improving offensive team (e.g., Cordarelle Patterson, Norv Turner, Healthy Rudolph) that may pick up yards, buts struggles to get it in the end zone.

Both players are entering their sophomore campaign. Tavon Austin was the 1st wide receiver off the board in 2013, selected 8th overall. Cordarrelle Patterson was selected 29th overall. Being the first wide receiver drafted and being drafted in the top 10 came with big expectations, especially following the likes of other top 10 wide receivers recently drafted such as A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Tavon Austin’s 2013 season was considered a bust, especially for those who took a mid-round flyer on him in fantasy football hoping that he would be the next Julio Jones.

Statistically, Tavon Austin wasn’t that far behind from Cordarrelle Patterson. Cordarrelle Patterson had 45 receptions, 469 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TDs. Tavon Austin has 40 receptions, 418 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TDs. Cordarrelle Patterson had 12 rushing attempts, 158 rushing yards, and 3 rushing TDs. Tavon Austin had 9 rushing attempts, 151 rushing yards, and 1 rushing TD. Tavon Austin’s numbers could have been better than Patterson’s had he not missed the last three games of the season.

However, Tavon Austin never really impressed throughout the last season, whereas Cordarrelle Patterson burst onto the scene around week 13. From weeks 13-17, Cordarrelle Patterson was a fantasy football beast. You never really got that stretch of performance and glimpse of the upside from Tavon Austin. With that said, I’m expecting Cordarrelle Patterson to have a monster year in 2014, and he’ll end up with way better stats than Tavon Austin. However, with the spot that Austin is currently being drafted at, Tavon Austin may be worth a late-round flyer based on his upside.

Just wanted to check in with everybody. I’ve been working away on my 2014 Fantasy Football Rankings. Check those out as it will be a great cheat sheet for your draft and also breaks players down into tiers (RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3). It’s a continued work in progress until the season kicks off.

Just a few predictions about the upcoming 2014 football season and my approach to betting on the NFL in 2014. First, I’m not going to place any substantial bets on games until at least week 5. There are surprises every year and there are a lot of teams that I usually tend to enjoy betting against that will be much better football teams this year (e.g., Vikings, Jets, Jaguars, Rams, Browns, Cardinals, etc.). I wouldn’t be surprised to see the dogs starting the year on a very good note.

Over the last four years, I’ve found that my best weeks against the spread have been weeks 10-16.  That’s when things get serious. What gives me an edge during this time is I’ve found that the parity between teams that is often seen in the beginning of the year begins to dissipate. The playoff teams typically kick it up a notch while other teams who will not be competing for a playoff spot take a step back. It’s simply a matter of the playoff teams gaining confidence and the non-playoff teams losing confidence and you see that  take effect after week 9 once teams have a better idea of whether they are a contender or not.

For example, the Broncos were 6-2 ATS in their final 8 games after starting the season 4-3-1 ATS. The Seahawks finished the season 6-1 ATS after going 5-4 ATS in their first 9. If you want some in-depth research on historical favorite vs. underdog winning percentages, check out that research report. It’s loaded with tons of great information. Underdogs have outperformed favorites every year between 2008-2012, and have outperformed favorites dividing the last 35 years into 5-year stretches 6 out of 7 times. Compelling research.

I also wanted to note some of the best and worst teams against the spread from last year:

Source: 2013 NFL Standings ATS

Think the Packers and Saints are safe teams to play against the spread?  Think again. The Saints had a 8-7-1 ATS record and the Packers came in with a 6-10 ATS record. You would have been better off riding the Dolphins, Chiefs, Vikings, Jets, Steelers, Chargers, and Cowboys who all had a 9-7  (or 9-6-1)ATS records. I also wanted to point out that the Saints maintained a perfect 7-0-1 ATS records at home, but struggled against the spread on the road going 1-7 ATS. The Bengals were a perfect 8-0 ATS at home.

So that’s my advice going into the 2014 football season. Be cautious taking the favorites in the first four weeks of the season, consider picking home dogs who are getting points, and then pound the dogs in weeks 10-16 once they are eliminated from playoff contention.

In the mean time, get ready for your fantasy football drafts, and check out our 2014 fantasy football cheat sheet which will continue to be updated until the beginning of the season.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-1.5)

What a great Monday Night game. We have two quality teams jocking for playoff position. The 6-6 Bears are hosting the 7-5 Cowboys. This game has huge playoff implications. With the Eagles on a hot streak, the Cowboys need to win this one to stay on top of the NFC East. Meanwhile, the Bears need to take advantage of the Detroit Lions loss against the Philadelphia Eagles and catch up a game in the division. Check to view more updated NFL Betting news and opinions here.

I’m going to go with the Bears in this one. Both teams have slid a little in recent weeks, particularly in their defense. Dallas has been struggling to stop offenses in recent weeks and they give up a ton of yardage. The Cowboys secondary has a very tough matchup against a trio of Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and Martellus Bennett. As long as Josh McKown get some protection from his offensive line and takes care of the football, the Bears offense should do well against the Cowboys. Alshon Jeffrey has been a fantasy monster in recent weeks. We may see Alshon Jeffrey being drafted in the top 15-20 top wide receivers next year if he keeps putting up numbers like these. Expect Alshon Jeffrey to make his name known to a national television audience tonight. Are Brandon Marhshall and Alshon Jeffrey the top NFL receiving duo? This year, I would have to say yes.

You know Dallas is going to hang in there which is why you see the spread at just -1.5. The Cowboys offense always seems to keep them in games, even if they fall behind 2+ touchdowns. Dez Bryant can be a one-man wrecking crew. Will Dez Bryant finish the season like a monster? This is going to be a great game in the air for both teams. I’m expecting a high scoring game, especially with the way their respective defenses have slid in the last few weeks.

In the end, I see this is a back-and-forth game between two passing offenses. It looks like the public is favoring the Cowboys slightly and that’s probably due to the fact that the Bears have lost two straight to weaker opponents like Minnesota and St. Louis. However, both of those games have been on the road. McKown played well in those games, but the defense didn’t get the job done. I expect the Bears luck to change at home on Monday Night when they’re at home in the cold where they thrive against a dome team that’s not used to playing in the extreme cold. It’s going to be 10 degrees in Chicago. Advantage Chicago.

PICK AGAINST THE SPREAD: Chicago Bears (-1.5) – Confidence 7/10

PREDICTION: Chicago Bears 34 – Dallas Cowboys 27

Minnesota at Michigan (-19.5): Maybe it is just me, but I really think this Michigan team has a ton of talent, but clearly they have not put it together. They have to be one of the only teams in history to have started 4-0, and yet dropped in the standings each of the last two weeks after narrow wins. Part of having a good football program is learning to win even when you do not play very well. Michigan has done exactly that after narrow wins against Akron and UConn. Michigan comes off a bye week with plenty of time to prepare and refocus for Minnesota. If this team can put things together, they can easily dominate and blowout a team like Minnesota. Therefore, lay the 19.5 and take Michigan for 1 unit.

LSU at Mississippi State (+9.5). Tough and meaningless spot for LSU. MissSt is another team that has failed to put it all together. They are well coached, have above average talent, and should be motivated to beat LSU at home. LSU comes off a season ending loss at Georgia, which was a heartbreaker as well. LSU also is playing their second straight road game and come in as an almost 10 point favorite. MissSt comes off a blowout win over Troy and hopefully have that offense firing on all cylinders for today’s big home SEC game. I look for MissSt to play well and hopefully pull the upset. Take the points with Mississippi State for 1 unit.

Ohio State at NORTHWESTERN (+7). The real question is how good is Ohio State? While under Meyer they have won 17 straight, but have not beat a team ranked insider the top ten during that entire run. Northwestern may not be a top ten team, but they have one of the best coaches in the country and will play very well tonight. NW has had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. On the other, Ohio State comes off a gritty road win over Wisconsin and now hit the road to take on NW. OSU could easily be overlooking this game. I will take my chances here with NW and the points for 1 unit.

Good Luck.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (+3.5) over San Francisco 49ers — Rams play the 49ers tough, beating them in St. Louis last year and tying them in San Fran. Have to go with the home dog on the short week.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings — This one will be in England so I would just stay away.  I have no confidence in either team, but would lean Steelers who are more deserving of a win.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS — The Ravens have had two nice games following their loss to the Broncos. Although the Bills are a team on the rise, the Ravens have shown that their defense still has plenty of gas left in its tank.

Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS — I love pounding the Jaguars and I think this is another opportunity to take it to the NFL’s worst team.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS — We have our fourth straight home dog, which indicates another wild week in the NFL, but I’m not convinced in the Browns just yet. They pulled out all the stops last week and they’ll run out of their bag of tricks. The Bengals D should shut them down, while the offense takes care of business. I think the Browns keep it close for most of the game, but the Bengals ultimately win by 10.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) over HOUSTON TEXANS — Ouch, a fifth home dog. The Texans have been subpar this year. The Seahawks should continue to roll, but they’re definitely not a great road team in comparison to their home dominance.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Arizona Cardinals — Bucs are due for a win right? They almost beat the Saints at home, you would think they could take care of the Cards.

Chicago Bears (+2.5) over DETROIT LIONS — I’m in love with the Bears this year. They look like a good team to ride as their defense is dominant and their offense has taken a major step forward. I’m expecting a 12-4 season from the Bears.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5) over New York Giants — The Giants are in shambles while the Chiefs are surging. Ride the Chiefs as Arrowhead is an incredibly tough place to win an the Chiefs benefit from added rest by playing this past Thursday. Giants are eyeing up an 0-4 start.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-4) over New York Jets — I’m liking Tennessee here.  Beat the Steelers, beat the Chargers, nearly beat the Texans on the road. They’re a solid football team, but the Jets defense keeps it close.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+2) over Dallas Cowboys — I’m forced to pick a few home dogs this week so I’ll take Philip Rivers at home over the Cowgirls.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3.5) over Washington Redskins — Redskins have defensive issues and that should be problems against a mobile quarterback like Pyror.  However, he’s questionable so check the injury report before the game.

Philadelphia Eagles (+11.5) over DENVER BRONCOS — The Eagles are my team and were an embarrassment last week. They have the offense to keep up with the Broncos when spotted 11.5. Raiders nearly covered 14.5, Eagles should have it in them to cover at least 11.5.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) over New England Patriots — Have to go Hotlanta Falcons at home.

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS — I’m a believer in the Dolphins this year and I may end up looking stupid for picking them in this spot, but they have the talent on defense to give Drew Brees fits in this one.

The overall college football card is filled with some  huge favorites including Louisville -42, Alabama -39, UCLA -43, Miami-FL -59, Florida State -40, Ohio State -50, Virginia -45, and Washington -49. I do not see any value in those games. You potentially could have let down spots with Alabama, UCLA, and Ohio State off solid wins, but their opponents are so weak it would still be a stretch to lay money against any of those teams.

University of Louisiana-Lafayette (-6) vs. Akron. Incredibly tough spot for Akron off the loss to Michigan, in which, they should have won easily. Despite having many opportunities to win they had the ball within the 10 yard line and failed to score as time expired on their final play. Akron played the game of their life last Saturday and will be called to match that effort again as they take on a very solid UL-Laf squad. UL-Laf put forth strong efforts in their first two affairs suffering road losses to Arkansas and Kansas State. Last week they finally played a team more their caliber and won 70-7. One key spot play is to play  against a team coming off a heart-breaking loss, even better when you have a team like Akron that will struggle to repeat that performance. Most bettors will be itching to get to the window the next weekend to lay some money on that team, inflating the line and giving the SMART bettor a great value play. This line opened as high as -8, in some places, and has worked its way all the way down to -6. To me it doesn’t get better than that. You get the much better team in UL-Laf, a valued number, as I believe they may have been favored by as much as 10 points had Akron been easily beat last week, and you get an inexperienced Akron team having to rebound off a very tough loss. Lay on the points with UL-Laf for 2 units.

Good Luck.

The Bengals (-6.5) then capped off a solid week on Monday Night. I think I’m going to continue pounding the Steelers and may ride the Seahakws minus whatever at home from here on out. A lot of tough games this week with road dogs looking to deliver a slew of upsets. Miami +1 vs. Falcons, Panthers +1 vs. Giants, Ravens +1 vs. Texans, Bengals +2.5 vs. Packers. A few of those home favorites will cover. Watch out.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs

The flawed Eagles D that I was talking about in week 1 reared its ugly head. The Eagles could not stop the Chargers on third down to save their life. The Chargers punted maybe once in that game if my memory serves me correct. I liked how their D looked in Week 1, but they just didn’t show up this week. Being at home back-to-back on a short week should help the Eagles. Their offense has also looked outstanding in both weeks. They could have one of the league’s top offenses if they keep this up. If they got just one or two more stops on 3rd down, they would have had that game. Chiefs are 2-0, they’ve played two good games. They’ve scored when they need to and their defense get stops. I’m counting on the Eagles offense to outplay the Chiefs defense and the Eagles D should be able to step up this week against Alex Smith.

PICK: Eagles (-3) – Confidence: 6/10

Houston Texans (-1) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

My first thought was, the public must be pounding the Texans. 82% of the action has started out on the Texans. I don’t see a reason for the spread to be this low. I would say Texans should be (-3.5) favorites. The Ravens offense this season has been very poor. Maybe Vegas liked the way their defense played this week. Texans have some defensive kinks to work out, but I think they’ll get it together against Ravens. This could be a classic Vegas “home dog” trap.

PICK: Texans (-1) – Confidence: 7/10

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+1) over New York Giants

I’ve picked the Panthers twice, and they’ve let me down. They had the game against the Bills won 23-17 if it wasn’t for a pass interference penalty with 14 second left. They just barely lost to the Seahawks and then blew a lead to the Bills to lose in that one. 75% of the public likes the Giants, but I’m going against the grain. I can see exactly why the public is going Giants — another “home dog” trap. This time I’m going with the underdog the public is pounding. The risk here and what the public is thinking is that Eli and Giants receivers completely light up the Panthers secondary. I see that, I get that. I was trying to use the 0-2 team at home in a “must win” game as justification, but the Giants are 0-2 as well. They need this win just as bad. My head is telling me take the Giants, but my gut is saying take the Panthers.

PICK: Panthers (+1) – Confidence: 6/10

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-1) over Detroit Lions

Lions just can’t seem to win games on the road. Calvin Johnson will get his, but the defense just can’t seem to step up for him. The Redskins D has gotten lit up twice this season so far by the Packers and Eagles and will have another high-powered offense to take on. My play on this game is the over 48.5. I’m expecting a lot of big plays in this game and a lot of TDs. Teasing the game to 40.5 to add on the Redskins (+7) seems like the way to play this game. If the Redskins are going to lose this game and break their fans hearts by going 0-3 to start the season, they may as well do it in a close game.

PICK: Redskins (-1) – Confidence: 6/10

San Diego Chargers (+3) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Both teams have surprised a lot of people with their play. The Chargers offense has been on fire with the play of Philip Rivers. Although he has a group of role players and may be without Malcolm Floyd who left the Eagles game with a neck injury, he’s always able to find the open man whether that’s Antonio Gates, Danny Woodhead, Eddie Royal, or Vincent Brown. I like the Chargers offense to outplay the Titans, but the Chargers defense will give up a handful of points, which is a good reason to avoid them this week.

PICK: Chargers (+3) – Confidence: 7/10

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5) over St. Louis Rams

Cowboys are coming off a 17-16 road loss to the Chiefs, the Rams are coming off a beatdown on the road against the Falcons (but they fought back a little). I like the Cowboys coming back home agaPinst a team who will be on back-to-back road games.

PICK: Cowboys (-3.5) – Confidence: 7/10

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6.5) over Cleveland Browns

The good news for these teams is that one of them will get their first win this week. The Vikings have had two heartbreakers. Losing to the Bears 31-30 after barely losing to the Lions. Those are two tough teams and they were on the road twice. They now come home to take on a 0-2 team that has struggled offensively. The Browns D has looked decent and will definitely keep them within reach at (-3.5). I really like the Vikings to win, but won’t be surprised at all if it’s merely by a field goal. Adrian Peterson, you’re going to have to put the team on your back this week to get this victory. This game opened at (-3.5) until it moved to (-6.5) after Brandon Weeden has been ruled out and Trent Richardson was traded to the Colts. The Browns defense may keep the score low, but you can count on the Browns offense doing nothing without a QB and RB. Highly confidence with Vikings in their home opener.

PICK: Vikings (-6.5) – Confidence: 8/10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

I’m taking the Bucs. After taking the Jets (+11) over the Patriots and nailing it, I see this as another good opportunity to take points. The Patriots were terrible against high spreads last year and they’re getting the same high spreads even though their offense isn’t what it used to be and is frankly quite poor. Shane Vereen was an important piece for that offense and he’s gone for the season. Danny Amendola will likely sit this one out and may need surgery and Gronk probably won’t be back until week 4. Brady and his young receivers (other than Julian Edelman) were out of sync last week. All the Bucs have to do is shut down Edelman and they’ll have Revis Island to do just that. The Bucs just held the Saints offense to 16 points! Now the Bucs offense won’t do much as they looked poor against the Jets and Saints. I may do another teaser like I did last time and take Bucs (+16.5) with the under (50.5). The spread has since moved to (+7) or (+7.5), which I still ike

PICK: Buccaneers (+9.5) – Confidence: 8/10

Atlanta Falcons (+2) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Vegas is teasing you like crazy this week with these road favorites, but this time giving the team that should be favored 2 points. 71% of the public is taking the Falcons. They’re in love with the Falcons. Have you seen that offense? Julio Jones? The Dolphins defense is legit and offense can make plays. Tannehill has improved a lot. He turned in a 104 QB rating, throwing for over 300 yards and adding a TD against the Colts on the road. Vegas must have a lot of faith in that team to make them mere (-2) favorites against the Hotlanta Falcons. How can you not like Atlanta over Miami though? I’ll put this on upset alert, but I’m initially going Falcons here.

PICK: Falcons (+2) – Confidence: 6/10

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

I like the Packers in this spot even as a road favorite. Packers nearly topped the 49ers on the road. I think they can get it done on the road against the Bengals.

PICK: Packers (-2.5) – Confidence: 7/10

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS

The Bills got a big win at home against the Carolina Panthers after just barely losing to the Patriots. With the respective offenses and defenses, Vegas has the over/under at 39. I’m seeing this go under as well. I like the Bills to win a close one. If I’m going to play this game, I would tease it to Bills (+8) with the under 46. E.J. Manuel has a tough defensive test, but he should outplay Geno Smith and has the benefit of a better running game with the Bills. I see the Bills winning 13-10, 20-17 tops. A 24-23 win or even a 24-17, 20-13, or 17-10 loss keeps them in the money.

PICK: Bills (+2.5) – Confidence: 7/10

Indianapolis Colts (+10.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

I was eyeing this game up as a potential game to take before I saw the spread. I would have no problem laying -7 to take the 49ers, but -10.5 is too much for me. The 49ers defense should be dominant. I love is the defensive mismatch. The Colts D has been disappointing. They didn’t have an answer for the Raiders running game. Kaepernick, Gore, Boldin, and Davis should be rolling like they looked week 1 against the Packers. I wish the domination from the Seahawks would set up a more favorable spread, but that’s just not the case. At (+10.5) I actually have to lean Colts. The Colts offense should have enough to keep this respectable. 49ers win by 7-10.

PICK: Colts (+10.5) – Confidence: 6/10

SEATLLE SEAHAWKS (-19) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Blow out city. Give me the Seahawks minus whatever. The Jaguars have scored 11 points in their first two games by getting beaten up by the Chiefs 28-2 and lost 19-9 to the Raiders. The Jaguars will not score this game and the Seahawks will have plenty of opportunities to score points. I have 38-0 in mind.

PICK: Seahawks (-19) – Confidence: 8/10

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5) over Arizona Cardinals

The Saints haven’t blown out the Falcons or Bucs, so I may shy away from this spread. You need to count on the Saints dominating to want to lay the chalk. The Cardinals have a respectable team that is capable of hanging in there if their defense steps up. I’ll lean Saints, but not crazy about it with the spread. The spread has since moved from Saints (-9) to Saints (-7.5) so the public is also like the Cardinals with the big points.

PICK: Saints (-7.5) – Confidence: 6/10

Chicago Bears (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

DA BEARS. Steelers offense is pathetic without a ground game. I really like the Bears here, but will another home dog prevail? The Steelers would go 0-3 if they lose this one, but that’s how it’s looking unless their offense is able to get something going.

PICK: Bears (-2.5) – Confidence: 8/10

DENVER BRONCOS (-14) over Oakland Raiders

Broncos offense has lit up the Ravens and Giants in the last two weeks, so why wouldn’t you think the Raiders are going to get blown out here? I hate high spreads, but this could be Blow Out City. I respect the Raiders though. I drafted Run DMC in Round 5 of every single fantasy draft I’m in and so far very happy with the results. Him and Pryor are a perfecting combination out of that backfield. They have the opportunity to keep this game within two touchdowns if they can pick up first downs together and control the clock. The Raiders have done an excellent job running the football with Pryor. Pryor didn’t thrown the ball well this week with just 126 passing yards, but he didn’t turn the football over and gained 50 yards on 9 rushes.

PICK: Broncos (-14) – Confidence: 7/10

There are some concerns for RGIII owners. Although he’s actually put up solid back-to-back 20+ point games in week 1 and week 2, Robert Griffin III has been awful in the first half and clearly should take the blame for the losses in both weeks. His mechanics are off because of the knee injury and he’s afraid to get hit. There’s already talk that if the Redskins go 0-3, Shanahan should bench RGIII until he’s healthy and go with Kirk Cousins. Redskins fans are already calling for Cousins. If there is a QB controversy in Washington, you better start looking elsewhere for a reliable backup if you don’t already have one.

At the top of the QB waiver wire, I would take Philip Rivers. Rivers is looking good again despite not having a true #1 receiver. He has a bunch of roleplayers and he’s making it work. With a Malcom Flloyd, Eddie Royal, a healthy Antonio Gates, and now Danny Woodhead to work with on 3rd down, he has plenty of weapons at his disposal to work with. Ken Wissenhunt has been doing a great job with this offense and the Chargers offense should be back to the 27 PPG offense that we’ve been used to in year’s past when Rivers was a fantasy stud in the 2008-2011 years where Rivers averaged about 30 TD/year and threw for over 4,000 yards every single season. The Chargers are going to throw the football and throw it a lot. After Rivers, Sam Bradford and Jay Cutler have both gotten out to nice starts.

There aren’t many wide receivers to pick from. I was liking Kenny Stills after week 1, but he was quite in week 2. DeAndre Hopkins is available in some leagues and may even have a bigger fantasy impact than Andre Johnson. Hopkins came up huge for the Texans after Johnson left the game with a concussion. Eddie Royal now has 5 TDs this season which is the same amount of touchdowns he has had in the last 4 years combined. Royal was a stud for a sleeper in his rookie season, but has done nothing in the 4 years since then. He may be worth a flier to stash on your bench, but he’s too inconsistent to be considered a weekly starter. If you don’t need immediate help at WR, but looking to stash somebody for a playoff run, you can pick up Percy Harvin for an option down the stretch if you need to upgrade at WR. Harvin won’t be back until week 7 at the earliest, but he has hinted at returning week 7 and has said his recovery is going well.

The close week in all games really shows the parity between teams in the NFL. Early in the season, the dogs usually have the edge when every team is 0-0 and each team thinks they’re going to make the playoffs. Huge improvements among the Bills, Dolphins, Browns, Titans, Rams, Chiefs, Chargers, Cardinals, Lions, Eagles, and many other teams that were written off last year and in past years. There is one certainty among teams in that last half of the power rankings last year, the Jaguars are still the worst team in the NFL! How quickly coaching changes and drafting well can turn around teams immediately.

Last week, nearly all the advice I dished out was sound. I did extremely well picking games straight up, but those (-4.5) spreads cost you when your team pulls off a win by 3-4 points. Not a big deal as it’s only Week 1 and I like to take the first 4 weeks to evaluate things. I continue to believe that the books have the edge weeks 1-8 and that turns around in weeks 9-17 which has always been my bread and butter. The playoff teams step it up a notch while teams whose playoff hopes are defeated give up on the season, which is where I always try to capitalize.

I really like the primetime games this week with Broncos (-4.5) and 49ers (+3). There’s a lot of good opportunities to take points with Redskins (+9.5), Jets (+13), and Titans (+10). Other spreads I like are Saints (-3.5), Panthers (-3), and Cowboys (+3).  Good luck this week.

New York Jets (+13) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Patriots will win this game no doubt. Last week showed me that the Patriots offense is taking a huge step back this season. Tom Brady will pull it off in the clutch, but they sure are going to be punting a lot more often than they did last season without Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez. This is a division game and the Jets have a decent defense to keep them within (+13). I’m not expecting much from the Jets offense, but if they can score just 2 TDs throughout the entire game, which may be asking for a lot, they should be able to cover this spread. I don’t necessarily want to bet on them, but this could be an easy spot to take the points, especially early in the season when the Jets are pumped after winning last week and their self-confidence is high. Only risk is the Patriots offense looks like a machine this week and dominates, making you feel like an idiot for even thinking of taking the Jets.

PICK: Jets (+13) – Confidence 7/10

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7) over St. Louis Rams

I can see the public loving the Falcons in this one. They can’t start the season 0-2 against a weaker opponent at home after just barely losing to the Saints on the road. Just no way!. I really like the Falcons at a pick ’em if you want to tease the spread down to 0, but I think there’s a chance the Rams get a sloppy/”backdoor” cover. Initial lean on Falcons, but I may flip-flop to Rams (+7)

PICK: Falcons (-7) – Confidence: 5/10

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-9.5) over San Diego Chargers

I can’t believe I threw my own team under the bus last week. As a fan disappointed in the season they had last year, I was only looking at their flaws rather than where they improved. Chip Kelly will definitely make this offense dynamic. They’ll be picking up tons of yards and scoring tons of points this season. I was concerned with their defense, especially their new 3-4 against the run and how their revamped secondary will look. All positions played a good game. I was happy with the defensive line, the linebackers, and the secondary. One of those units will usually sh*t the bed like last year and usually the run D and secondary. The Eagles looked like a legitimate playoff team yesterday. The Chargers also looked good for most of the game before letting the Texans get back into it. I like the options they have on offense. They have a group of roleplayers that are capable of making some great catches and moving the chains. I have to go with my team here, but 68% of the public is taking the Chargers. I’m just happy to see that Vegas believes in this team as much as I do right now. I can’t remember the last time the Eagles were 9.5-point favorites.

PICK: Eagles (-9.5) – Confidence 6/10

Dallas Cowboys (+3) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Early lean in the Cowboys here. Although the Chiefs were impressive against the Jaguars, let’s not get ahead of ourselves — the Jaguars are the league’s worst football team. It will be a much different game when the Cowboys roll into town coming off a big win with expectations high. Their defense is much better and their offense is looking nice! I like the ‘boys (+3)

PICK: Cowboys (+3) – Confidence 7/10

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) over Miami Dolphins

I wanted to go with the Dolphins last week as I was very high on their team going into the season, but I had to go Browns at home who I also thought was a team that has improved.  The Dolphins may have a defense worth picking up in fantasy leagues: 10 points allowed, 6 sacks, and 3 interceptions. The Colts got the job done against the Raiders last week, but their D didn’t look good against run. However, that was against a running quarterback, something the Dolphins do not have. I thought Luck would light up the Raiders D, but that didn’t really happen since the Raiders controlled the football for most of the game. Slight lean on the Colts, but I may flip-flop and go Dolphins (+3) here.

PICK: Colts (-3) – Confidence: 5/10

Tennessee Titans (+10) over HOUSTON TEXANS

I loved betting on the Texans last season. I took down a lot of games with them, but they let me down against the Chargers on Monday Night. They struggled against the pass, but they’re a completely different team at home compared to on the road. The Titans just got a big road win against the Steelers and their D is looking much better. I have to take the double-digit points. No doubt Texans win this one, but I think the Titans will pull off the cover.

PICK: Titans (+10) – Confidence: 6/10

Washington Redskins (+9,5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

Another chance to take points here. RG 3 and out struggled in the first half as he was clearly rusty to start the game, but it only took one half of football for that rust to wear off. The Eagles picked him off twice and Alfred Morris fumbled the ball once or twice. Take the turnovers away and have RGIII play in the first half like he did in the second and the Redskins probably could have won that game. The Packers offense will score a ton of points, but their D couldn’t stop the 49ers to save their life. Anquan Boldin put up what? 200 yards! RGIII was spreading the ball around well in the 2nd half and he was even making plays with legs despite the knee injury. I think you see the Packers win by a touchdown at best so I see this as another good spot to take points.

PICK: Redskins (+9.5) – Confidence: 7/10

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5) over Cleveland Browns

Browns did not look good last week thanks to the poor play of Brandon Weeden. I see this as a big rebound game for the Ravens in their home opener after a demoralizing loss last week. Browns defense may contain the Ravens with the spread on the line, but I think you see a much better performance from the Ravens D against this Browns offense. The Ravens have the benefit of 3 extra days of rest and preparation. I’m not expecting the Ravens to run away with this one, so I don’t like betting on this game, but I do think you see them win by a TD.

PICK: Ravens (-6.5) – Confidence: 6/10

Carolina Panthers (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS

I’m just seeing the Panthers dominate this game. The Panthers just had to take on the Seahawks defense and will have a much easier defense to face this week. Cam just has to outplay E.J. Manuel in this one and that’s all this game is to me. Cam Newton or E.J. Manuel? I’m going Cam.

PICK: Panthers (-3) – Confidence: 7/10

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The public is pounding the Saints, which is seeing 81% of the action. I like the Saints here as well, but don’t act like this is a lock. The Bucs have covered and outright defeated the Saints many times in the last few years. This is a division game. It’s likely going to come down to the wire. I’m a big believer in the Saints rebound this year. Sean Peyton is back as the head coach and vengeance will be his! Bucs keep it close, but Saints win by 7.

PICK: Saints (-3.5) – Confidence: 7/10

CHICAGO BEARS (-6.5) over Minnesota Vikings

The public is favoring the Vikings here but I’m going with DA BEARS. DA BEARS were actually a pretty good team to bet on last season, especially at home. They won last week 24-21 to a team that many people, including myself, claim has “Super Bowl potential.” Potential is a silly word though. The Bears had what it takes to get it done against an AFC Playoff team last week. I think you see them handle the Minnesota Vikings just fine this week.

PICK: Bears (-6.5) – Confidence: 7/10

ARIZONA CARDINALS over Detroit Lions

We have ourselves a toss up and in typical fashion, the public is all over the Lions after they were oooohed and ahhhhhed by Reggie Bush’s razzle dazzle last week. I love the Lions this year, I love what Reggie Bush brings to their football team, I love what Calvin Johsnon can do, but the Lions still have major holes in their secondary and Carson Palmer should be able to exploit that in this game. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Flloyd are due to have big games. The Cardinals have one of the best corners in the league to matchup against Calvin Johnson. Their front seven can focus on Bush. I think they have what it takes to get this win at home. I’m going against the grain and picking the Cardinals here. I may end up regretting it, but they deserve more respect at home.

PICK: Cardinals – Confidence: 6/10

OAKLAND RAIDERS (-6) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Like I said before, the Jaguars are the league’s worst football team. I’m 100% convinced that they will have the league’s worst record this year and will have the #1 draft pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. The Raiders may not win a ton of games this year and Terrelle Pryor is not going to be a great passing quarterback, but his legs give him enough to pick up first downs, control the clock, and open up opportunities for this offense to score. They hung with a playoff team from last year on the road and nearly won outright. I really like the Raiders here, but can your money trust them? I don’t know that yet.

PICK: Raiders (-6) – Confidence: 7/10

Denver Broncos (-4.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants looked like a trainwreck last week in Dallas, but they fought back a little. Peyton Manning: ties an NFL record with 7 TDs. Giants have a lot of issues on defense and the injuries aren’t helping them. Peyton should pick them apart in this one. I think Eli won the last duel between Manning Brothers so it’s Peyton’s turn this time around.

Pick: Broncos (-4.5) – Confidence: 8/10

San Francisco 49ers (+3) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Everyone is all over the Seahawks this year, thinking they’re a top 3 team. I don’t think so — they’re a playoff team, they’re a good team, they’re a contender, but I don’t think they’re the best team or even a top 3 team. They have a great defense, but their offense is just “pretty good.” The 49ers are “outstanding” on both sides of the ball. I’ll take the 49ers outstanding offense over Seahawks pretty good offense as their defenses are #1 and #2 in my book. I like the 49ers a lot this year. They’re playing with a chip on their shoulder and I like that.

PICK: 49ers (+3) – Confidence: 8/10

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

I like the Bengals here. Pittsburgh’s offense struggled big time last week against the Titans since they’re lacking a strong running game this year, which has been their bread and butter over the last 20 years. The Steelers had 15 rushes for 32 yards. I don’t see how the Steelers get the job done against the Bengals on the road without being able to run the ball. The Bengals had the #6 defense from last year. Only chance for them to cover in this one is if their D steps up big.

PICK: Bengals (-6.5) – Confidence: 7/10