If you want to start doing some homework on the odds, head off and check out Kentucky Derby 2013 race information. So far the front runner to win the grand daddy of horse races is Verrazano who is currently 7/1 odds after opening at 150/1 odds. Some interesting names that caught my attention, if your strategy is to simply bet on names you like, are Will Take Charge at 22/1 odds and War Academy at 30/1 odds.

Is there a potential Smarty Jones in this group? It’s too hard to tell. We’ll know more as we get closer to the race. If your interested in getting after the action, head on over to this 2013 Kentucky Derby gambling site.

February 20-26 – NFL Combine

March 9 – Free Agency Begins

March 17-20 – Annual League Meeting

April 25-27 – NFL Draft

What else can be done during this period when we all go through withdrawal and don’t know what to do with ourselves on Sunday? Fortunately, there’s March Madness around the corner once we’re out of this dreaded month of February with ridiculously cold weather and nothing exciting going on in the sports world. Feel free to check out the 2013 March Madness lines or browse this NCAA March Madness Gambling Site.

It looks like my Sunday is relegated to NCAA basketball on Sunday. Today we see a matchup between #1 Indiana vs. #10 Ohio State. Despite Indiana dropping an overtime loss to Illinois the other day, they still kept their #1 ranking and look like the team to beat. I’ll be picking them to win the whole NCAA tournament as Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller look like the best 1-2 punch in the college basketball ranks. Oladipo is drawing comparisons to Michael Jordan with his moves, while Zeller is your classic Indiana big man. A 7’0″ 240 lbs. Indiana native that’s averaging 16.2 PPG and 8.3 RPG. Indiana is going to be an exciting team to watch in the tournament.

See you all next year. Congratulations to Beantown Brawlers winning the pick ‘em league. Although we had the same record (137-124 ATS) at the top, he won the league with the tiebreaker.

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3.5)

The Super Bowl is finally here. I’m just thrilled to not have to watch the Patriots, Giants, or Steelers (all the teams that I cannot stand) again who seemed to have played in 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls collectively. This year I have two teams that I would want to see win the Super Bowl. That hasn’t happened since the Saints faced the Colts.

I’m torn here as I want the Ravens win since I would love to see Ray Lewis end his illustrious career with another Super Bowl victory. However, I think the 49ers will bring home the bacon. I think the 49ers are stronger on both sides of the ball. The 49ers played two high-scoring offenses in the playoffs in the Packers and Falcons and outscoring those teams was an easy task for the 49ers.  The 49ers won 45-31 and 28-24.

The Falcons game was a true test for the 49ers. Going on the road, giving up a 17-0 lead in the 1st quarter, and having to battle back. The 49ers have an offense that can strike quickly thanks to Colin Kaepernick, which is something that they’ve lacked the last few years. The 49ers defense got their act together and allowed just 1 touchdown in the next 45 minutes of the game.

The Ravens have been equally impressive, beating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road. Holding the Patriots to 13 points is hard to believe. If someone would have said prior to that game that the Patriots would be held  to less than 14 points, it would have been met with complete laughter. Ray Lewis has that defense inspired and I can see them potentially winning the Super Bowl if that psychological edge is powerful enough to top the 49ers.

Enjoy the Super Bowl. This is a tough one to call with the spread. I think it’s going to be a tight game, but I like the 49ers to win by a touchdown.

PREDICTION: 49ers 27 – Ravens 20

PICK AGAINST THE SPREAD: 49ers -3.5 (Confidence: 6/10)

San Francisco 49ers (-4) over ATLANTA FALCONS

After the 49ers kicked the Packers ass last week, I must admit that they are the real deal and feel confident in picking them to head to the Super Bowl to face the AFC Champion. The Falcons looked good last week, but they nearly blew a 20-0 lead by getting too conservative with their play calling and nursing a lead. I expect the 49ers defense to stymie the Falcons offense while Kaepernick plays like a stud once again. Based on the way these teams played last week, it’s clear that the 49ers are a far superior football team. I just hope that the long road trip to the east coast doesn’t mess with their groove.

PICK: 49ers -4 (Confidence: 8/10)

PREDICTION: 49ers 31 – Falcons 20

Baltimore Ravens (+8) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Ravens know how to play the Patriots.  I’ll gladly take the 8 points. I think there’s a good chance of the Ravens winning outright, but I’m just being overly optimistic since I love to hate on the Patriots and want to see the man Ray Lewis play in another Super Bowl to top off an amazing career. The Ravens lost the AFC Championship to the Patriots last year 23-20 in a heartbreaking loss where a touchdown pass was dropped and a field goal was missed. The Ravens were 7-point underdogs in that game. Earlier this season, the Ravens looked to get some revenge against the Patriots, which they did by winning 31-30 as a 2.5 point dog. Two straight games where the outcome was decided by a field goal or less. I’m expecting another razor-tight game despite the Patriots looking like a machine. The Broncos were supposed to be another machine and the Ravens did a fine job containing the Broncos offense. The Ravens hung in there  on the road just fine and that’s even after giving up 14 points on special teams. In what should be a tight game, I’ll take the Ravens +8.

PICK: Ravens +8 (Confidence: 8/10)

PREDICTION: Ravens 27 – Patriots 24

Seattle Seahawks (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS

I’m really torn here. I can see this game going either way. The Falcons are at home where Matt Ryan has been outstanding throughout his career, a 33-6 record and 8-0 this season.  The Seahawks have been downright dangerous the last month of the season. The Seahawks could very well have the league’s best defense with a lethal combination of a strong pass rush from their entire front seven and the biggest and most physical secondary in the NFL. However, Chris Clemons, their top pass rusher is out for the season after tearing his ACL last week.

The Seahawks still have the edge defensively over the Falcons and have the better running game with BEAST MODE Marshawn “PutDaTeamOnMyBack” Lynch. I have faith in the Seahawks corners to contain Roddy White and Julio Jones while the front seven limits the Falcons run game. In the playoffs, it’s all about defense and the running game and Seattle has the edge in both. Do your thing Marshawn Lynch — get your Skittles ready!

To give the Falcons some respect here, their defense has also been strong at home. They held the Giants to 0, Bucs to 17, Saints to 13, Dallas to 13, and Denver to 21. Those are very impressive home performance against strong offenses. However, I’m still feeling the Seahawks.

PICK: Seahawks +3 (Confidence: 6/10)

PREDICTION: Seahawks 24 – Falcons 20

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-9.5) over Houston Texans

The public is split here 50/50, which is somewhat surprising. I thought about 65% of the public would be going with the Patriots after they shellacked the Texans 42-14 on December 10th. The Patriots offense has been able to impose their will on every team they’ve faced — they’re a machine. The Texans will need to play a near perfect game to even keep this one close. The Texans offense has just been missing the last month including last week against the Bengals.

I’m not expecting a beat down like last game, but I’m confident in the Patriots winning by two scores. If you’re not sold on laying the points, I would look to tease the line to Patriots (-2.5)/over 41. The Texans face the same problem they did last game in that they cannot play from behind. In order for them to have a chance in this game, they need to draw first blood with a TD.

If the Patriots pull off an early lead, the Texans will have to abandon their running game and that will be disastrous for them. If the Patriots start off this game with a 14-0 lead, the Texans might as well just throw in the towel. If the Texans go up 7-0 to start the game, the pressure will be off their defense, and the Texans can try to control the clock with the running game and keep Brady off the field. That’s the only way I see them having a a chance in this game.

This year in the playoffs, the Patriots will benefit from a stronger running game and defense that have been missing over the last few years. Brady is also working with a healthy Gronk and Hernandez. I just don’t think the Texans can stop him with all of the weapons at his disposal. Big warning here though — the Patriots have sucked against the  spread in the playoffs — they are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games. This is why I’ll be teasing the line down to Patriots (-2.5) to pair with the over 41.

PICK: Patriots -9.5 (Confidence: 6/10)

TEASER PICK: Patriots -2.5/Over 41 (Confidence: 8/10)

PREDICTION: Patriots 34 – Texans 20

DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) over Baltimore Ravens

I’m very confident that Peyton Manning will get the W, but it’s a steep spread against the Ravens defense. I’m expecting a lower-scoring game this time around. Last week no team scored more than 24 points. The defenses have dominated, the weather has been cold, and the scores have been low. I would tease this spread to Broncos (-2.5) with Patriots (-2.5) before taking Broncos (-9.5). You can also tease the over/under from 45 to 52 to take Denver (-2.5)/Under 52.

Broncos have won 11 straight and beat the Ravens 34-17 on December 16th, but this game will be very different from that December 16th contest. The bottom line for me is Peyton Manning vs. Joe Flacco, who would you rather bet on? I’ll take Peyton Manning at home minus the chalk. Joe Flacco will have a tough time against the Broncos defense and will be constantly be pressured by Dumervil and Von Miller. Flacco sucks on the road and has yet to win a big game. However, the cold weather could keep the score low and give the Ravens a chance to cover the +9.5 if their defense steps up.

PICK: Broncos -9.5 (Confidence: 7/10)

TEASER PICK:  Broncos -2.5/Under 52 or Broncos -2.5/Patriots -2.5

PREDICTION: Broncos 24 – Ravens 13

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

This is another game that I have to pick solely based on quarterbacks. Kaepernick has been solid, but who would you rather let your money ride on, Aaron Rodgers or Colin Kaepernick? I’ll take Aaron Rodgers, especially considering that he has all of his receivers back. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will be playing today.

The 49ers beat the Packers in Green Bay opening week 30-22, but I’m expecting a different outcome this time around. These are completely different teams at this point in the season. The Packers finished the season strong as the 49ers faded away. 49ers were 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in their final 5. Packers were 5-1 SU and ATS in their final 6.

PICK: Packers +2.5 (Confidence: 7/10)

PREDICTION: Packers 27 – 49ers 24

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5) over Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are coming into this matchup in Baltimore with the momentum. The Colts are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 and 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10. The Ravens are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games. That’s the reason that 63% of the public is taking the Colts (+7).

I was going to go into the cliche that the Ravens are such a strong team at home, but they’re a surprising 3-5 ATS at home (6-2 SU). The Colts are 4-4 SU and ATS on the road this season. The Ravens have had to top huge lines at home though, the 6-2 home record tells the real story. The Colts have been a great story this year, but their Luck should run out today.

First, we have the return of Ray Lewis who is playing the last home game of his career. The Ravens defense will be playing with extra motivation and determination for Ray. Just like the Colts got a boost last week with the return of Chuck Pagano, the Ravens should be the beneficiary of the emotional boost from Ray Lewis’s last home game.

Like I discussed with the Texans yesterday, they played poorly in December and showed up yesterday to take care of business. I believe the Ravens did the same thing. Their team and particularly their defense was decimated by injuries, so I think you had players playing at 75% effort in December in order to nurse injuries. They already had a playoff spot locked up with those last five games left to play. Now it’s the playoffs. I think you see the Ravens defense play like the Ravens defense that we’re used to. On offense, Flacco and Ray Rice will do their thing.

I’m taking the Ravens (-6.5).

PICK: Ravens -6.5 (Confidence: 7/10)

PREDICTION: RAVENS 27 – COLTS 17

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3) over Seattle Seahawks

This is a tough game to call. Both teams are coming in with a ton of momentum on their side and both are looking like dangerous wild card teams capable of upsetting the Atlanta Falcons, who the winner of this game will be facing next week. The Redskins are 7-0 SU and ATS. The Seahawks are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS.

I’m leaning Redskins since this game will be in Washington. If this was being played in Seattle, I would be all over the Seahawks. The Seahawks are just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road, while the Seahawks are undefeated at home. Other than the Seahawks big win over the Bills on the road, the Seahawks haven’t been dominant on the road. They lost to the Dolphins, Lions, Rams and 49ers.

However, I see a lot of merit in playing the Seahawks today. Their defense is solid, a top five defense in the league. They rank 1st in points allowed with just 15.3 PPG allowed, rank 4th in total yards allowed, 6th in passing yards allowed, and 10th in rushing yards allowed. That defense will be up against an offense that ranks 1st in rushing yards and 4th in points scored.

With this one, my head is saying take the Seahawks and my gut is saying take the Skins solely based on home field advantage. This one is a toss up and personal bias has be wanting to see RGIII advance next week.

PICK: Redskins +3 (Confidence: 5/10)

PREDICTION: REDSKINS 27 – SEAHAWKS 24

HOUSTON TEXANS (-4) over Cincinnati Bengals

I like the Texans here. The public is split here 50/50. The line moved from Texans (-4.5) to Texans (-4).

I don’t have a whole lot of conviction with the Texans since the Texans December performance has been poor, but keep in mind that they already locked up a playoff spot by that time and likely just slacked off the month of December.  A lot of players on their team were pretty banged up so I’m sure that their players who were nursing injuries were only playing at a 75% level. Houston finished the season 1-3 SU and ATS.

The Bengals have been on fire lately with a 7-1 record SU and ATS in their last 8.  Remember that these teams faced each other in the playoffs last year and the Texans wiped the floor with them winning 31-10. Houston was a 4-point favorite in that game as well. Andy Dalton thew 3 INTs and 0 TDs. A.J. Green was targeted 12 times and had just 5 catches for 47 yards. The Bengals were held to a mere 76 rushing yards a well. T.J. Yates was also the QB for the Texans during that game.

I expect the Texans to get their act together and pull off another big win, but the margin will definitely be tighter this time around. I’m not as confident as I would be if the Texans were currently playing the way they were in the beginning of the season, but this is the Texans game to win, and I think you’ll see a 100% effort from them. The Texans are a much different team at home vs. on the road.  I think the fact that the Texans have an answer for A.J. Green is why you see them win this game. They shut him down last time. The fact that Andy Dalton forces the ball to him only makes matters worse as Dalton was picked thrice in his last playoff game against the Texans.

PICK: Texans -4 (Confidence: 7/10)

PREDICTION: TEXANS 24 – BENGALS 17

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9.5) over Minnesota Vikings

6:30 UPDATE: With Christian Ponder out with a sore elbow, Joe Webb will get the start, so I’m changing the pick to Packers -9.5.

ORIGINAL POST: I like taking the points here, it’s just too many to pass up. 63% of the public is also taking the points. I was expecting this line to be Packers (-6.5). This is a division game, so it’s likely going to be close. I don’t want to put too much emphasis on last week either when the Vikings beat the Packers 37-34. It’s a completely different game when it’s played in Minnesota vs. Green Bay. When these teams met in Green Bay, the Packers won 23-14. Adrian Peterson rushed for 210 yards in that game, but the Vikings fell short based on a poor performance from Christian Ponder (12/25, 119 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT). Ponder played like a stud last week against Green Bay (16/28, 234 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INT) and A.P. did his thing with 199 yards on the ground.

The question in this game will be which Christian Ponder shows up? Is it the Christian Ponder that spreads the ball around, moves the chains, protects the ball, let’s A.P. grind out the tough yards, and sets up scoring opportunities. Or will it be the Christian Ponder that we’ve known as a rookie who forces throws and turns the football over. Ponder has been better since that last Green Bay game back in week 13. He’s thrown 4 TDs and just 1 INT, which was against the Bears. He’s faced Bears, Rams, Texans, and Packers in the last four weeks, is 4-0 SU and ATS and has an average QB rating of 85 in that stretch. I also like the way that Vikings defense played against the Packers in both games.

Aaron Rodgers can lay the smackdown on any team and is certainly capable of winning this game by 10+ points. In the last three weeks, Rodgers has thrown 10 TDs, 0 INTs, and has a 100+ QB rating in all three games. The guy’s on fire right now. I would much rather tease this spread down to Packers (-2.5) to pair with the over 39 points or under 53 or another spread than take the Vikings (+9.5). Before slapping this in a teaser with the over/under, I would prefer to tease this with another game rather than the over/under since the 15 degree weather could result in a low-scoring game. Bottom line is I’m expecting a Packers W by 7. The over/under is a crap shoot.

PICK: Packers -9.5 (Confidence: 6/10)

TEASER PICK: Packers -2.5/Over 39 (Confidence: 7/10)

PREDICTION: PACKERS 27 – VIKINGS 17

Baltimore Ravens (+1) over CINCINNATI BENGALS — Both teams are in the playoffs and the playoff seeds are pretty much set. You don’t know what kind of effort you’ll get from the teams when playoff position has pretty much been determined. The Bengals are locked in the 6th seed and the Ravens aren’t able to play for a 1st-round bye.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS over Cleveland Browns — No line is released but I really like the Steelers in this one. Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden are out. Neither team has anything to play for but pride.I’ll take Steelers anything less than a touchdown.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+7) over Houston Texans — This is a tough one as the Colts locked up a wild card and will be playing on the road in the playoffs regardless of the outcome here. The Texans are playing for home-field advantage. If the Texans lose, the Patriots or Broncos could secure home-field advantage in the playoffs. I believe that the Colts will give a solid effort and try to win this game to enter the playoffs with momentum. The Texans should win this game and I would rather tease the Texans down to pair with another team, but I’ll take the Colt (+7) and expect an outcome of a Texans win by 3-4 points.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-4) over Jacksonville Jaguars — Nothing to play for but pride and I’ll take the Titans at home over their weak division foe.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Philadelphia Eagles — The Giants need a lot of help to get into the playoffs. They need the Cowboys, Vikings, and Bears to lose, which is certainly possible. The Cowboys are on the road in Washington, the Vikings take on the Packers, and the Bears are on the road in Detroit. The Eagles have been playing better lately, but as an Eagles fan, I’m expecting them to drop this one.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3.5) over New York Jets — The Jets have won 6 straight against Buffalo and in 4 of those games, it’s been by 10+ points. I’m going to have to go against their matchup history and go with the Bills.

Chicago Bears (-3) over DETROIT LIONS – If the Vikings lose to the Packers, the Bears clinch a playoff spot with a win. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions crush the Bears playoff hopes, but I’m going to put faith in the Bears defense and my boy Brandon Marshall to get the W.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over ATLANTA FALCONS — No line on this game yet. The Falcons locked up the No. 1 seed so I expect the Falcons to rest their starters and let the Bucs to get the win.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-4.5) over Carolina Panthers — The Saints met the Panthers last year in week 17 and the result was Saints 45 – Panthers 17. The Panthers offense didn’t look too solid last week against the Raiders. Although Carolina topped the Saints at home this season 35-27. The Saints have been rolling the last two weeks posting 34 and 41. I’m expecting the Saints to lay the smack down in their home finale.

DENVER BRONCOS (-16) over Kansas City Chiefs — I was going to go Chiefs solely on the line being too high, but the Broncos are the hottest teams in the NFL right now, are at home, and can clinch the No. 1 seed if the Texans lose to the Colts. I don’t see how the Chiefs score much on this Broncos defense as the Chiefs have only scored more than 10 points twice in their last 10 games. Manning will be throwing darts on the Chiefs defense and the Broncos should be good for 4 TDs. Broncos 31 – Chiefs 10.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS over Oakland Raiders — No line is released yet, but I like Chargers anything under a touchdown.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-16.5) over Arizona Cardinals — The 49ers need to win this one to clinch the NFC West. They beat the Cardinals 24-3 in Arizona earlier in the road. The 49ers will be playing pissed off after last week’s debacle in Seattle. I don’t expect the Cardinals to score more than 7. Half the public likes the points and it is tempting since the line is so high.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over St. Louis Rams — The Seahawks can with the AFC West with a win and a 49ers loss. The Seahawks are looking like a very dangerous team after winning in three straight blowouts. They rocked the 49ers 42-13 last week, beat the Bills 50-17 the week before, and the Cardinals 58-0 the week before that. They are the true meaning of determination… BEAST MODE!

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS — The Packers need to win this one to clinch the No. 2 seed. The Vikings need to win this one to clinch the No. 6 seed. The public is split here 50/T. The Packers beat the Vikings 23-14 four weeks ago in Green Bay. Last season the Packers beat the Vikings 33-27 in Minnesota. The Packers have the weapons to get this done. The Vikings just have Adrian Peterson and the legs are getting tired.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Miami Dolphins — The Patriots look to land the No. 3 seed, but can sneak into a No. 1 or No. 2 if the Texans and Broncos lose. Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in New England. 64% of the public likes the Patriots in this one. When you have Brady at home in December jocking for playoff position, that’s who I’ll take. Good game to tease down.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3) over Dallas Cowboys — This is the NFC East Championship folks. The public is split here 50/50. I’m taking the Redskins as they simply have the Cowboys number. I took them earlier this season when the game was played down in Dallas and the Redskins won 38-31. However, Dallas will be more prepared for RGIII this time around. The Redskins are 5-0 ATS against Dallas in their last 5 games, but the Redskins were the team getting points in all of those games. I really want to see RGIII in the playoffs and a Redskins vs. Seahawks matchup is guaranteed if both teams win this week. Dallas may be the play at (+3.5), but personal bias has me wanting the Skins to win this one.