2009 storm prediction

Gazing into its crystal ball, weather researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict we’ll see between 9 and 14 named storms in 2009: 4 to  7 of them will become hurricanes and 1 to 3 of those will be considered major with winds to 111 miles per hour. South Florida chances of being that host stand at  32 percent, compared to the 54 percent the entire U.S. coastline bears. NOAA researchers are saying the Caribbean has an “average” probability of a major hurricane strike.

In other words, it’s pretty much par for course this hurricane season. In fact, we’re into week six of the official calendar boundaries (June 1 to November 30) with nary a bad breeze, unless you count the unnamed fish storm that brewed up at the end of May out in the Atlantic Ocean — where cruise ships don’t sail and hotels can’t exist anyhow.

And that’s where the lasting damage takes place, anyhow. As of today, the list of resorts still trying to reopen after last year’s hurricane parade include Courtyard by Marriott and Brac Reef Beach Resort in the  Caymans, along with Four Seasons in Nevis. At least these properties intend to reopen; the jury is still out on whether the Hyatt Regency in Grand Cayman will ever greet tourists again after its encounter with Ivan in 2004. Ditto Derelict Mullet Bay Beach Resort in St. Maartin, beat up way back in 1995.

Face it, storms are rough on the Caribbean.

Travel can weather the storm

But it would be a mistake to confuse destruction odds with lost tourism. Survey after survey reveals that travelers are more than willing to take those chances, provided the price is right and they buy trip insurance. A healthy 65 percent of participants told TripAdvisor they would pack their bags for regions in the hurricane target zone this fall. Cruising fares even better, as CruiseCritic’s call for answers revealed that not only had 70 percent of participants toasted their bon voyage during hurricane season, but that less than 7 percent regretted it. A sampling of the attitudes:

•“I am more worried about a hurricane at my departure port since if I can’t get to the port I can’t cruise. Once I am onboard I don’t care where I go!”

• “The outer bands of Rita hit Miami and delayed our departure by about four hours. Almost immediately the captain announced that we would not be able to dock in Nassau because of the storm, which was obviously disappointing. He stated we were going to out-run the bad weather by heading to the Northern Bahamas area, near Grand Bahama. After quite a rough night at sea, we woke to a beautiful, sunny morning. Everyone awaited the morning announcement by the captain and it was worth the wait! He announced that the port in Nassau had reopened, there was no damage, and best of all, we were 15 miles out and on our way to port! It was quite an emotional change from the night before.”

•“We were on Norwegian Sun while Wilma was out there. Our course and ports kept changing so much we dubbed it ‘The Mystery Cruise.’ It was still a great cruise and we even got to port in a city where few ships visit. It was great.”

• “We live in South Florida and felt the full force of Wilma — believe me, I’d rather be safely and comfortably away on a cruise ship than sitting in the dark for a week!”

Photography: Fevi in Cayman, Salvatore Freni

Budget Airlines - JetAmerica, RyanAir & Spring Airlines

JetAmerica, which started taking bookings for $9 flights with much fanfare in late May, was supposed to launch on July 13. They’ve now postponed the launch to Aug 14. The reason for the delay is a lack of landing and take-off time slots at Newark.

JetAmerica’s VP of Operations Brian Burling says that the FAA flip-flopped on the need for time slots. He says they initially indicated JetAmerica wouldn’t need slots, but after the FAA found that JetAmerica had sold over 20,000 tickets even before the first flight had taken off, they changed their stance and now JetAmerica is grounded until they get the slots.

Of course, this leaves the 6,486 JetAmerica passengers who had booked tickets for dates in-between July 13 and Aug 14 in the lurch. JetAmerica is now refunding all of them, and offering to waive reservation charges if they re-book. This is what happens when you book cheap airline tickets with an airline which has no planes or crew and exists only on paper.

In Europe, cheapskate carrier RyanAir wants to leave no doubt that they’ll do anything to keep the prices down - even if it means leaving customers without a way to check-in. Last month, RyanAir announced a 10 hour downtime for their website, citing a need for essential maintenance.

RyanAir is also phasing out airport check-in desks as part of it’s cost-cutting measures, which basically means passengers can only check-in online. Which, of course, they can’t do if the website is down. This kind of catch-22 situation wouldn’t happen if the airline in question wasn’t going wild trying to save a few more dollars in any way possible.

But China’s first private airline and budget carrier Spring Airlines aims to go where no airline has gone before - They’re planning to get modified planes from Airbus with bar stools and safety belts, instead of seats. The plan is to offer standing-room tickets, and cram in 40% more passengers per flight.

Spring Airlines currently has 13 planes, and they’re not able to cope with the surging passenger volumes and demand for new routes. They’ve ordered 14 new jets, and if they get approval from the aviation regulator, the bar-stool planes could cut the airline’s costs by 20%, and allow them to offer lower prices to passengers.

How low can budget carriers go before consumers start weighing the merits of cheap tickets against  inconviniences like cancelled flights, check-in problems and standing-room only flights? Apparently a lot more, judging by the 20k tickets sold by JetAmerica, and the 60 million passengers who flew on RyanAir in the 12 months to the end of June.

Assuming cheap carriers will always find customers, regardless of how bad the service is, should aviation authorities step in and draw a line somewhere?

Photo credits:- JetAmerica photo courtesy JetAmerica; Ryanair interior photo by Jon Gos via flickr (creative commons); Spring Airlines photo released into public domain by Follash.

“The delay is not as unusual as it sounds,” according to JetAmerica’s Vice President of Operations Brian Burling. “Historically many of the world’s most successful airlines and charter services have had to delay their launches.”

More telling is that they claimed to have ~6400 passengers booked over the initial one month period. Based on their expected 34 segments per week, this nets out to only about 48 passengers per flight. Based on Miami Air's (who is actually operating the flights for JetAmerica since they are not a real airline) 737-800 capacity of 172 seats, this equates to less than a 28% load factor....

Sure, right this will work. We still bet this operation never gets off the ground. Sorry Toledo et al.