Here are a few recent articles I found interesting enough to share.  I hope you enjoy them.

Housing Policy Changes – a quick look at some of the changes coming in the next few months with regards to federal housing policy, specifically distressed housing.  by Calculated Risk.

**note – I offered the Fed a suggestion of renting out foreclosed properties 3 years ago.  just sayin’.

Cheaper to own a Phoenix home than to rent a Phoenix home – friend and Realtor John Wake found this article, showing what we knew to be true.. to be true. (according to the Wall Street Journal)  I will delve deeper into this topic for my next Viewpoint newsletter – which you can sign up for here.

The Clutterfat Challenge: Transform Your Living Space in a Month – an interesting challenge from Leo Babauta at Zen Habits, but a concept I really like.  I did not participate in this challenge specifically, but I have eliminated a lot of my own clutter over the last year, and I agree with the ‘simple is better’ philosophy (up to a certain point!)

How We Paid Cash for Our First Home – a post on the Get Rich Slowly blog.  On one hand, it shows how easy things can be when you have a big salary.  On the other hand, it shows the power of dedication and focus towards savings.

Death to Pennies – a 4:31 video making a great case for why the penny needs to be eliminated, produced by C.G.P. Grey.  If you like it, click around his site to sample his other videos.

App of the Week: Paper Camera – 40tech highlighted this app of the week.  I think it looks fun, and will most likely download it soon.

That’s all for now.

-Chris Butterworth

Interesting Articles 2-7-12 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

No related posts.

Will the Phoenix area housing market recover in 2012? That’s the big question. Listing inventory is next to nothing, days on the market is trending down, prices are inching upwards, and the tide of bank-involved activity is receding. That all sounds like the stuff of recoveries, no?

A couple years ago I thought this is exactly what the start of the recovery would look like. Banks go away, prompting “regular” sellers, who no longer have to compete with the banks, to raise their prices a bit. As prices rise, more sellers are no longer upside-down and are able to sell. Buyers appear in the form of former homeowners who have been renting for the last few years and are now ready to own a home again (from a credit worthiness perspective.) Eventually the market becomes more like normal than we’ve seen in about a decade. I’ve even read others expressing the same thoughts within the last few months. Unfortunately, today I’m not so sure..

As I watch the market and talk to various people, I’m seeing 2 factors which make me think this recovery will be slower than anyone is expecting.

1.) Few Buyers – even though many people lost their homes in waves over the last few years, they aren’t coming back into the purchase market in waves. Maybe it’s taking them longer to get their financial houses back in order. Maybe it’s more difficult than expected to save up for a down payment. Maybe people are gun shy about buying and are comfortable with the lack of commitment offered by renting. Regardless of the why, it’s becoming clear the buyers will come back into the market as a trickle over many years, rather than in waves over a few years.

2.) Few Sellers – I can’t even count the number of homeowners I talked with over the last few years who decided prices were too low today (and falling), and they wanted to wait for the market to stabilize and come back a bit before they’ll be ready to sell. These would-be sellers are now facing a couple hurdles:

a) Money – the market simply isn’t going to spike the 20-30% these homeowners are looking for anytime soon. If they can’t see the other side of the equation – that the home they want to buy is also reduced in price AND interest rates are ridiculously low, which means moving today probably makes sense regardless of the actual prices involved. If they want to move but can’t get over the pricing hurdle, they’ll most likely end up waiting for awhile longer.

b) Time – take this example: moving made sense in 2007 when the family had kids of 8, 5, and 2. They thought it would be great to have an extra bedroom and upgrade to a better neighborhood, but they weren’t able to pull the trigger as prices fell. Today the kids are 13, 10, and 7. The family has already figured out the shared bedroom situation, the kids are deep into school & don’t want to leave friends behind when they move to new schools, and the family only has 15 years left on their mortgage (which they’ve probably refinanced to 5%). It no longer makes sense for this family to move. They’ll probably stay put until the youngest kid goes to college.

I’d love to be wrong, but I’m forecasting a long, slow, gradual recovery, with each year being a little better than the last. Of course, this is all subject to change if the government can’t balance it’s budget and interest rates double from where they are today…

-Chris Butterworth

What will 2012 bring? is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

1. Happy New Year’s – 2012
2. Which Home Improvements Bring the Most Bang for your Buck when Selling?
3. Rent vs Buy

I’ve updated and published my Zip Code charts for last month’s activity, December 2011.

Email subscribers should have received an email yesterday – let me know if you didn’t get an email or had trouble with any of the links.

Anyone else want to see the activity in your own zip code? You can sign up here (and it’s free!)

-Chris Butterworth

Zip Code Charts are out for December 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

1. Maricopa County Sales Charts – December 2011
2. Maricopa County Sales Charts – December 2010
3. Distressed Activity by Month – December 2011

I saw this on visual.ly this morning and thought it was interesting.

If you click through to the site, you can fine-tune the chart to be state &/or computer-type specific.

Most interesting stat: almost 20% of all online traffic came via cell phones and tablets. That’s one in five, and the numbers are just starting to explode upwards – I won’t be surprised if it’s 50-50 in a few years.

- Chris Butterworth

What time of day do people search for homes? is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

1. 200 Recycled Cell Phones = New Gold Jewelry
2. Treating People like People
3. How many people does it take to sell a house?

Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide.  I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year..

A look at the charts shows a similar story to what we saw in my Distressed Activity post last week; inventory levels have dropped, and we’re seeing that affect pricing and days on market.  Have a look…

Specific Zip Code reports are now available!  If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.

and now, on to the reports.  (click each chart to embiggen)

Number of Homes Sold by Month

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Average Sold Price

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Average Price per Square Foot

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Average Number of Days on Market

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** The data for all these charts represents Single Family Homes sold in Maricopa County via the MLS.  All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, and is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed.  Please do not make any life-changing decisions based solely on the information contained herein.

Questions, comments, suggestions?  Please give us a call/email anytime – we’d love to hear from you!

- Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts – December 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

1. Maricopa County Sales Charts – December 2010
2. Maricopa County Sales Charts – January 2011
3. Maricopa County Sales Charts – May 2011

We’ve made some major renovations here at ThePhoenixAgents.com. I’d love to hear your feedback – let me know what you think, especially if there’s something you’d like to see which isn’t there, or if something looks/acts goofy..

What look did we go for? Well, we’re trying to accomplish 3 goals with this design:

1. Less “web leads”.

Frankly, we’re tired of flighty, flakey, dis-loyal “leads” looking for a good home in a good neighborhood for under $50,000!

Can we make money from the leads this site generates? Yes. We’ve met plenty of new friends whom we’ve helped buy &/or sell. But the vast majority of the web traffic we see doesn’t become friends; it’s mostly a frustrating experience and a waste of time. I’d much rather focus my energy on producing good content and helping the folks who like us!

2. More “homey”.

This part was easy – once you take down the buttons and hooks designed to engage “web leads”, the site instantly looked better.

I want the people who read us regularly to feel more comfortable while they’re here. Fewer buttons, less clutter, easier to find the information you’re looking for. I’d rather have 500 people really like our site than to chase down thousands of disloyal strangers. (and if we treat them right, those 500 are likely to refer us to their friends and family – kind of like the old days of real estate, no?)

3. Heather calls time out.

You’ll see a little less of Heather around the site this year, as she’s taking a little time off to pursue an opportunity that doesn’t come around too often. You can contact her directly if you want the full scoop. Otherwise, I’ll do my best to keep her seat warm for when she returns.

That’s it! Nothing Earth-shattering. We’re even using the same theme, fonts, and colors. But I think it feels a lot different, and I hope you enjoy it!

-Chris Butterworth

Website Renovations is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

1. Website changes

** New Charts this month!

I’ve got good news and bad news.  I also have a handful of new charts!

This post will be a little longer than usual, mostly due to the new charts, but also because there’s more to talk about than usual..

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 – New Bank Owned Listings  – (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

The trend on this one is significant, obvious, and heading in the right direction!  We added a “mere” 1,267 new bank-owned listings to the market last month.  Yes, that’s a big number historically, but it’s now 2 months in a row with the smallest 2 numbers we’ve seen in the last 3 years.  This means A) fewer properties are going through the foreclosure process, and B) fewer bank-owned homes on the market for sellers to compete with.

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Chart 2 – New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

Another low point, although this trend doesn’t look as strong as the last one.  The last 3 years has shown quite a bit of seasonality, or random ups and downs, without much of a trend in either direction.  This month’s 1,605 number is the lowest number on the chart by far – about 20% less than the next lowest months (Dec ‘10 and Dec ‘09 – hmmm.)  Since December seems to be an annual low point, I’m not ready to buy into this as a trend quite yet – let’s wait to see what happens next quarter.

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Chart 3 – New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

This chart shows exactly what we’d expect to see – a small number of bank-owned listings, coupled with a small number of short-sale listings, equals a small number of bank & short sales.  (don’t need to be a rocket surgeon to figure that one out!)

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Chart 4 – New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

This is another piece of good news.  Looking at the distressed activity from a different angle, we can see there are far fewer vacant homes out there with For Sale signs in their yard.  And this isn’t just a good month – this has been a declining trend over the last six months.

Charts 1 and 4, taken together, should give us a very clear picture of the market’s healing in 2012.

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Now the Sales – I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

After 3 years of data, and the inflection point last month, I switched to a line chart to see the trends a little easier.  And trends they are.  Fewer purchases of bank-owned homes; more purchases of short-sales, and more purchases of traditional equity sellers!  I’d prefer to see fewer short sales, but short sales are very good for the market’s healing – much better than letting a home go through the foreclosure process, sitting vacant for a couple years before an investor finally buys it and either flips it or rents it out.  A short sale typically puts a new homeowner into the home in about a quarter of the time.

Chart 5 – Home Sales by Type of Owner

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No change in Chart 6:  Vacant homes have been dominating Occupied homes for over 3 years.  This is another good indicator chart – fewer foreclosures and fewer vacant listings will eventually lead to a higher percentage of occupied homes being sold.

Chart 6 – Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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And now the bad news

The next 3 charts are new, and they don’t share the optimism of the older charts.  Yes, bank-owned and vacant listings are trending downward, and in steep fashion.  But what does that mean in relation to the overall market?

Here’s a look at the total number of new listings hitting the market each month.

Notice the steep drop-off over the last few months?  Suddenly it’s not quite as impressive to think there aren’t as many bank-owned listings, since there are less listings overall.

In order to see just how much effect one had on the other, I pulled together the percentages – what percentage of the overall market are bank-owned listings?

There’s a long-term trend heading slightly lower, but not much.  We started this experiment 3 years ago in the low 60s.  We peaked near 70%.  We dropped down to the low 50s, before spending most of the last 2 years hovering around 60%.  And recently we’re back down to the low 50s.  Not exactly earth shattering, but at least it looks like it’s going the right direction.

I’m not sure I can say the same thing about the vacant listings, unfortunately.  Vacant listings made up more than 60% of the market in 2009, and then hovered around 60% in 2010 and 2011, before closing out the year at 61.6%.  This doesn’t look like any kind of trend at all.

All charts:  I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

While I’m very pleased with seeing fewer bank-owned and vacant homes hitting the market as new listings, the fact that they aren’t being “replaced” by traditional sellers adds a whole ‘nother wrinkle to the “when will we recover?” question.

In addition, the fact that there are finally more sales of traditional sellers than bank-owned homes is most likely a charade.  Since the gap between vacant and occupied homes selling hasn’t really closed, I think the upswing in traditional sellers is due to investors re-selling homes they’ve purchased directly from the banks.

Overall, this shows a market which still isn’t picking up any steam at all from regular, traditional, I own the home I live in and I want to sell it – type sellers.

Stay tuned…

Your feels like he needs to look into this even further Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Distressed Activity by Month – December 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

1. Distressed Activity by Month – December 2010
2. Distressed Activity by Month – November 2011
3. Distressed Activity by Month – August 2011

New Year’s Eve (woo hoo!)  New Year’s Day (gowl games!)  New Year’s Resolutions (uh oh.)

I wrote extensively about setting and achieving goals a couple years ago. (part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4.)

But for today, I thought this chart says it all.

Happy New Year’s, Everyone.  I’ll see you next year.

by visually via

Embed the above image on your site

Embed the above image on your site

- Chris Butterworth

Happy New Year’s – 2012 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

1. Happy New Year
2. 13 Years
3. Happy Thanksgiving America!

Ahhh. The last week of the year. Time for reflecting on things past and setting goals and direction for the next year. And for our long-time readers, this is usually a good time to revamp our website’s layout & design!

Personally, I think it’s been a little stale around here lately, and we’ve both been a bit less than energetic with our writing over the last couple of months… So let’s mix things up!

Seriously, I’ll be making some changes over the next couple of weeks – sidebars, buttons, widgets, colors, theme.. “a little ham & eggs coming at you”, as the great Ron Burgundy would say. Bear with me, and if you notice anything goofier than normal, please let me know.

Thanks,

Chris Butterworth

It’s Construction Time (again) is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

1. Should I have my New Construction Home inspected?
2. Surprise – Bell Road Construction
3. Is it a (first-time) buyer’s market?

I hope everyone out there had a Merry Christmas.

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas! is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

1. Merry Christmas!
2. Peoria to collect Christmas trees at curb for recycling
3. MythBusters – Nobody Buys Houses At Christmas

I thought this was interesting. (posted via google+)

https://plus.google.com/u/0/110663925268354128146/posts/UBH2RitD1MQ

Bing uses Google search results..? is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

1. using Google as your calculator
2. Google knows a good Chris Butterworth web site when it sees one
3. Google Warning Removed