Industry Standard Predictions

Verizon iPhone or new iPhone model announced before April 2010?

Ian Lamont — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:44:11 -0800

Earlier this year, Apple and AT&T shook up the mobile phone marketplace by releasing the iPhone 3GS and dropping the price on the iPhone 3G to just $99. While competitors continue to adjust, some people are already thinking about Apple's next mobile moves. A lot of speculation has centered around an Apple tablet, but chatter around the next-generation iPhone also received a boost with this Gizmodo report that references a Chinese manufacturers' advertisement for an "iPhone 4 Generation Midboard." Gizmodo noted that the source of the information had been reliable in the past:

China Ontrade calls this the iPhone 4 Generation Midboard. Not very exciting, but the last time they announced a next-generation iPhone part, they were right. A month later, the iPhone 3GS appeared with exactly those parts.

Another issue worth mentioning: AT&T's exclusive iPhone carrier deal with Apple is reportedly set to expire as early as next year. There has already been a great deal of interest -- bordering on pleading -- for Apple to cut a deal with Verizon and release a Verizon iPhone.

If Apple indeed has plans for a next-generation iPhone and/or a Verizon iPhone, the question then becomes when will Apple (or Verizon) makes its intentions public?

Prediction: A 4th-generation iPhone or Verizon iPhone is announced between now and the end of the first calendar quarter of 2010. The announcement must come from Apple, AT&T or Verizon before April 1, 2010, in the form of a press release/press event/public comment or quote in a major media outlet. If Apple does announce a device with Verizon as the carrier, it need not be branded "iPhone" but must have standard mobile phone capabilities.

Image: iPhone 3GS

HP or Oracle announces intention to acquire Brocade by Dec. 7?

Ian Lamont — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 06:35:03 -0700

The latest tech company to hit the M&A rumor mill is Brocade (BRCD), a manufacturer of data center equipment ranging from blade server modules to storage-area networking gear. Reports in the financial press say that the company has put itself up for sale, and prospective buyers include tech heavyweights Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Oracle (ORCL). However, the Wall Street Journal, citing "people familiar with the matter," said that "no deal is imminent."

Oracle has been on an acquisition spree recently, with deals involving Sun and HyperRoll. HP's acquisitions include EDS and Colubris.

Prediction: By December 7, 2009, either HP or Oracle announces its intention to acquire Brocade Communications Systems. The deal does not need to be accepted, approved, or closed by this date, but one of the companies involved must make an announcement or have the news confirmed in a major financial or technology news publication by Monday, December 7, 2009.

Image: Brocade switch, pdstahl/flickr (creative commons license, commercial use)

Microsoft (MSFT) closes above $30 following Windows 7 launch?

Ian Lamont — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 13:42:05 -0700

Microsoft (MSFT) has been on a tear in the past six months. Back in March, market malaise brought the stock down to $15-$16 levels. Now, with the economy apparently on the mend and individual and institutional investors piling back into the market – especially hot tech stocks -- Microsoft's stock price is in the mid-20s.

Can it cross the $30 level? MSFT hasn't flirted with $30 since the spring of 2008. Whether it returns to those levels again in the next few months depends on several factors, including whether or not the current rally can hold and how the market reacts to Microsoft's new operating system, Windows 7.

To be sure, the recent rise of MSFT already reflects optimism over PC and IT sales returning to pre-recession levels and Microsoft benefiting from increased sales of all of its OS products, ranging from XP installed on netbooks to expensive server software that drives many corporate IT environments. And while Windows 7 is being promoted heavily by Microsoft in the runup to its October 23 launch, many market observers are waiting to see how corporate IT departments react, and to see how well holiday PC sales fare. Is there a lot of pent-up demand for Windows 7, following the recession, and Microsoft's missteps with Vista? If the answer is yes, Microsoft could get a large boost from Wall Street in the months to come.

Prediction: Microsoft (MSFT) will close above $30 per share between launch on October 23 and November 30, 2009.

A Verizon-Apple Tablet?

Ian Lamont — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 14:34:39 -0700

AT&T has learned a hard lesson in the past two years about exclusivity and Apple products. While the company has a bona-fide hit on its hand with the iPhone, the carrier has been subjected to withering criticism over its spotty coverage and other problems -- to the point where people are practically begging for a Verizon iPhone. That probably won't happen this year, but there's another possibility worth considering -- a Verizon-Apple tablet being announced later in the year.

We've gone over the Apple tablet rumors before, but what gives this story some legs is a recent analyst note. Barron's Tech Trader Daily picked it up last month:

UBS Securities analyst Maynard Um opines in a note today that Apple could see a non-cell phone device introduced by Verizon Communications's Verizon Wireless division this year, of the notebook variety.

Barron's then noted some of the other rumors around an Apple tablet. One of them concerns Verizon's supposed investments in LTE, a 4G wireless service. There has also been talk about how a tablet without a microphone wouldn't break Apple's exclusive agreement with AT&T. The AT&T/Apple deal for the iPhone will reportedly last into 2010, according to sources cited by the Wall Street Journal.

Prediction: By December 1, 2009, Apple announces a touchscreen tablet that uses Verizon's wireless network in the United States. Refer to our Apple tablet definition on this earlier prediction -- a mini-laptop or netbook will not suffice for a favorable judgment. The tablet need not be exclusive to Verizon, nor does it have to be released by December 1, but there needs to be an official announcement or confirmation by Apple or Verizon that such a product is in the pipeline.

Related:

Blu-ray iMacs released in 2009?

Ian Lamont — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 14:41:00 -0700

Nearly one year ago, Apple CEO Steve Jobs offered his take on HD formats for the Mac. He pronounced Sony's Blu-ray a "bag of hurt," citing licensing and other difficulties. The idea of a Blu-ray iMac seemed unlikely at the time.

Now the Apple rumor mill says that Blu-ray is back on the table for the next-generation iMacs. The rumor originated with AppleInsider, citing "people often familiar with the Mac maker's future product initiatives."

Would Blu-ray boost the fortunes of the iMac? On the Standard, we've noted problems with the the iMac's pricing, and have even gone so far to make a prediction based on the iMac's demise. On the other hand, Jobs' "bag of hurt" comment was accompanied by a statement that "we're waiting till things settle down and Blu-ray takes off in the marketplace." The question for Apple-watchers to consider now is whether Blu-ray has taken off, and if it can help justify the iMac's hefty price tag relative to other desktop computers in the marketplace.

Prediction: Next-generation iMacs released in 2009 will include Blu-ray playback capability. "Next-generation" means a new iMac with a new hardware configuration, as opposed to a processor upgrade and minor cosmetic changes. The product must be available for immediate purchase before the end of the year, but an Apple announcement or verified news report stating in advance that new, Blu-ray iMacs will be coming to market by Dec. 31, 2009, would be considered enough for a positive judgment.

Image: A 2008 iMac (William Hook/Flickr, creative commons license)

CrunchPad retail price more than $300?

Ian Lamont — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 14:53:44 -0700

How much will the CrunchPad cost? That's been a hot question this summer, as the Web tablet device has gone through various prototype stages and other devices -- most notably Amazon's Kindle DX and Sony's new e-readers -- have made their debut.

Back in April, TechCrunch founder Michael Arrington -- who is working with Fusion Garage to develop the CrunchPad -- had this to say about pricing:

Price? it can be built for less than $250, including packaging. Add in fixed costs and other stuff you have to deal with (like returns), and you can sell it for $300 and probably not go out of business.

However, the rumor mill suggests that the CrunchPad's retail price may be US$400, based on an article in a Singaporean newspaper. That may not be as much as the Kindle DX, but it's more expensive than Sony's two new e-readers, the cheapest of which costs about $200. One observer says the CrunchPad price needs to be even less than that in order to get marketplace traction.

Arrington has been secretive about the CrunchPad's actual price and launch date, but the release is believed to be "imminent."

Prediction: The CrunchPad's base retail price will be more than $300 in the U.S., not including carrier subscriptions or other costs. This prediction assumes the product will be available to consumers in stores or via preorder before Dec. 1, 2009. If the CrunchPad is not available by that date, the prediction will receive a negative judgment.

Related:

Image: A prototype CrunchPad (PC World)

Microsoft fails to buy or take a major share in Palm Inc. in 2009?

Ian Lamont — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:23:32 -0700

For years, Microsoft has tried to be a major player in the mobile market. It has offered mobile operating systems to phone and PDA manufacturers for more than a decade, and even launched its own digital media player to take on Apple's iPod. It is constantly seeking to improve its core mobile products, especially the Windows Mobile operating system and the Zune portable media player.

Nevertheless, despite claims from Microsoft that it has market momentum, the company recently acknowledged that its Windows Mobile segment has not performed well. Further, its Zune business has struggled to gain traction against Apple's iPod and iPhone lineups.

Should Microsoft continue to pour resources into its existing mobile efforts and brands, or take a new tack? Observer David Coursey thinks that Microsoft's best hope for mobile success would be to leverage Palm, Inc., which he says has a winner on its hands with the Palm Pre:

Microsoft should abandon Windows Mobile, abandon Zune, and buy Palm. I know this will be hard for Redmond--admitting defeat after all these fears flogging Windows Mobile--but it is the only path to success. With Microsoft's help, Palm can really become an Apple spoiler.

Microsoft should leave Palm pretty much alone; offering mostly improved developer tools, access to capital, and better compatibility with Microsoft Office. Jointly, the two could build an applications and entertainment store.

Coursey offers several other reasons why this would be a good match, and also discusses Microsoft's marketplace failures, which he says are partially the result of fears among carriers and handset manufacturers of Microsoft "coming in and taking over their industry." He says that a "49 percent stake in Palm might be the best way for Microsoft to enhance Palm's future" while allaying fears that it is trying to dominate the industry. According to Coursey, such a play would let Microsoft clear the decks for a "full assault on Apple in 2010."

But is the cost of buying a major share in Palm and potentially abandoning or restructuring its existing mobile brand strategies worth it? This prediction argues "no" -- despite its current difficulties, a play for Palm would be too expensive, in terms of upfront costs, wasted investment in its existing brands, and potential damage to relationships it has established with the world's handset manufacturers over the years.

Prediction: Microsoft fails to acquire Palm Inc. or buy a major stake in the company on or before December 31, 2009. "Major stake" is defined as at least a 20% stake in the company, along with at least one seat on Palm's board of directors. An announcement of such a deal by this date will result in a negative judgment, even if the deal closes after January 1. However, if Microsoft opts for a share rather than an acquisition, the announcement must make clear the size of the stake and whether or not a board seat is included. Ambiguity on these points will result in a positive judgment.

PlayStation phone announced by August 31, 2010?

Ian Lamont — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:56:16 -0700

A fascinating rumor has surfaced via the Japanese press about Sony's interest in developing a PlayStation-branded device with mobile phone capabilities.

According to a wire service report that cited the Japanese Nikkei business daily:

"Sony plans to set up a project team as early as July to develop a new product that combines functions of its portable game player and Sony Ericsson's mobile phones, the Nikkei said."

Sony Ericsson later called the report "purely speculative" but the company clearly sees mobile phones as an important element of its overall electronics strategy. Besides the Sony Ericsson mobile phone venture, Sony's next generation of the PlayStation Portable, the Go, is switching to flash memory, a smaller form factor, and direct download of software, features which are more in line with what the iPhone and iPod Touch offer. Phone capabilities added to the PlayStation platform might make it very attractive to serious and casual gamers alike, especially considering the success of the iPhone/iPod Touch as a gaming platform.

Prediction: On or before August 31, 2010, Sony announces that it is working on a mobile phone/gaming device or is partnering with another company to produce such a device. Criteria for judgment include an announcement from Sony, Sony Ericsson, or a partner, or a news article that cites a company executive as its source. A release date does not need to be included, but the announcement or report must make clear that the planned device is an extension of the PlayStation brand. An unconfirmed rumor at next year's E3 expo (scheduled to take place in mid-June) will not suffice for judgment.

Nvidia Tegra smartphone from Samsung or Motorola by Nov. 30?

Ian Lamont — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:08:36 -0700

The mobile arena is one of the few bright spots in the tech economy. Last year, Intel's Atom processor was a smash hit as millions of consumers migrated to low-cost netbooks powered by the Atom. This year, all eyes are on the smartphone market, as heavyweights Apple, RIM, and Palm drive innovation with new or upgraded devices, and chipmakers work on the next generation of processors that will be able to deliver even better performance and graphics in smartphones.

One of the most eagerly anticipated mobile chips is Nvidia's Tegra. The company claims the chip will be able to deliver HD video playback, Flash acceleration, and 3D user interfaces while using very little power (see demo below). According to Nvidia, netbooks and other Tegra-equipped devices should be available in the second half of 2009.

Smartphones will reportedly be part of the Tegra product blitz. In an interview described by a columnist on TheStreet.com, Mike Rayfield, the general manager of Nvidia's mobile business unit, said he "expects the company's Tegra chip to debut in a phone from one of the top five cell-phone makers as early as the fourth quarter of this year." Rayfield declined to name the manufacturer, but TheStreet.com said unnamed experts think that Samsung or Motorola "are probably the most likely."

Prediction: A Samsung or Motorola smartphone (i.e., a mobile phone that can also be used to browse the Internet, watch video, and send email using a small QWERTY keyboard or touchscreen) powered by Nvidia's Tegra chip will be launched on or before November 30, 2009. An announcement of a future product or preorders will not suffice -- the device must be available for immediate sale to members of the public in any country or territory on or before that date. A news article, press release, or store/carrier announcement of availability will be used to judge this prediction.

Video: Nvidia's Vice President of Mobile Content Neil Trevett demonstrates a 3D user interface running on the Tegra APX 2600 development platform.

Oracle announces definite plans to get into the netbook/mobile Internet device market?

Ian Lamont — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 14:32:19 -0700

The technology industry was taken by surprise earlier this week, when Oracle CEO Larry Ellison made some unexpected comments about his company's hardware plans. As described by one source,

... Ellison broadly hinted that Oracle would get into the consumer electronics business, offering netbook-like machines that would compete with the Acers, HPs, Dells, and Lenovos of the world.

Another source reported Ellison making the following remark:

"I can see lots and lots of Java devices, some coming from our friends at Google," said Ellison. "But I don't see why some of those devices shouldn't come from Sun/Oracle."

Ellison did not give any details, and many observers did not take the comments seriously considering Oracle's historical roots as a provider of enterprise software.

Nevertheless, there are several factors that would make Oracle consider a move into the consumer hardware arena, including Oracle's planned acquisition of Sun Microsystems, which brings new hardware and software skills and technologies into the Oracle fold. Ellison clearly sees huge potential in Java -- at his speech to the JavaOne attendees in San Francisco on Tuesday, he pledged to develop Java applications for phones and netbooks, saying "There will be computers fundamentally based on Java and JavaFX, not only from Google but also from Sun."

Prediction: On or before December 31, 2009, Oracle will announce plans to develop a mobile Internet device similar to a netbook (i.e., a keyboard and screen no larger than 12.1 inches, and a processor with roughly the same power and processing speeds found in Intel's Atom family), or a platform for such devices that combines an operating system and SDK along the lines of Google Android or Intel Moblin that is not a next-generation version of Java ME. The criteria for this prediction coming true are an Oracle press release or named Oracle employee quoted in the press stating that Oracle has definite plans to develop such a device and/or platform.

Image: Larry Ellison, 2005 (Eddie Awad/Flickr, creative commons license)

Dell announces intention to acquire or merge with Palm or Acer in 2009?

Ian Lamont — Fri, 29 May 2009 13:46:18 -0700

Even though Dell had a tough first quarter, it is sitting on nearly $10 billion in cash and equivalents and is "looking for opportunities" to expand its business through acquisitions, according to a Dell executive.

The executive quoted in the IDG News Service article is Steve Felice, president of the company's small and medium business unit. Felice refused to name the companies under consideration, but the article said unnamed observers believe that Palm or Acer are potential targets.

Michael Dell recently said that his company is interested in "smaller-screen devices", which could mean smartphones or some other sort of mobile device. Palm is getting ready to launch its new smartphone, the heavily hyped Palm Pre, and Acer has a strong netbook line as well as a huge footprint in the PC market.

Prediction: Dell announces its intention to acquire or merge with Palm or Acer on or before December 31, 2009. The acquisition/merger does not need to go through by that date, and indeed may be derailed by regulators or some other unforseen factor. However, Dell or one of the companies involved needs to make a public announcement about its intention to take part in a merger or acquisition, in the form of a news release or statement to the press by the end of the year.

Image: Dell Studio 15 laptop (Dell.com)

Yahoo announces a major social networking service, acquisition, or partnership by December 1?

Ian Lamont — Wed, 27 May 2009 14:47:54 -0700

This year's All Things Digital conference featured a fascinating on-stage interview of Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz by Kara Swisher. Besides delving into Bartz's short history at the company, the talk also covered some potential strategic moves. According to AllThingsD's account, Bartz said Yahoo was "very interested in social."

Of course, this is not the first time Yahoo has talked about big social networking plans. But what makes this different is Bartz's drive to execute quickly and decisively on reforming the company, and her stated desire to turn Yahoo into users' "home on the Web."

Prediction: Before December 1, Yahoo will announce plans to create a new social networking service, acquire an external social network, or partner with another social networking company. Criteria: The service will not be an expansion of Yahoo 360 -- it will be branded differently. The service must also be targeted at Yahoo's entire U.S. userbase (and possibly international users, too) not just a subset of users, such as business users. There must be an official announcement from Yahoo or another company involved with the product, or it must be revealed by a named Yahoo executive in a media interview or article.

Image: Yahoo

Facebook files for IPO by end of 2009?

David Kuan — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 21:42:58 -0700

Facebook chief financial officer Gideon Yu is leaving the company, a move that signals the company is positioning itself to go public.

The social networking site, which recently passed the 200 million user mark, reported that it is on track to increase revenues by 70 percent this year. Could an IPO be around the corner?

Prediction: Facebook files for IPO by the end of 2009.

Image: Marcopako/Flickr

Apple launches a netbook in '09?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 10:16:49 -0700

Apple is working on its next big thing. What's not clear is what Apple is developing. Some speculate that Apple is getting into the growing netbook segment based on a tip that Taiwanese manufacturer Wintek is supplying touch panels for the Cupertino-based company. A netbook is a scaled-down version of a laptop.

Others suggest that Apple is making a super-sized version of its iPod Touch with a bigger screen to watch movies, play videogames, and read e-books on.

Prediction: Apple unveils a new netbook in 2009. An announcement from Apple by Dec. 31, 2009 that the company will sell netbooks will be sufficient for a favorable judgment. Apple does not have to sell netbooks in '09 for a favorable ruling. The product must be formally categorized as a netbook.

8/10/09 clarification: The definition of netbook is as follows:

It must have typical netbook qualities, such as a lower power processor than other MacBooks, a keyboard, and smaller overall size footprint.

In addition, the price must be lower than the current lowest-priced MacBook, and also must not have the same branding as base MacBook -- i.e., it can't be simply a price cut of the low-end MacBooks.

Image: Simon Varwell/Flickr

Facebook buys Yammer in 2009?

John Watts — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 22:49:02 -0800

Facebook tried to buy Twitter last year. Facebook reportedly offered to buy the hot microblogging service last year for $500 million in stock and some cash, but talks between the two social networking companies ended in November.

Perhaps it's time for Facebook to take a hard look at Yammer, a Twitter-like service for businesses. Yammer would be considerably cheaper to buy. Yammer charges companies to use its service. Yammer would also help Facebook go after LinkedIn in the enterprise social networking market.

Prediction: Facebook buys Twitter-like service Yammer by the end of 2009.

Image: BigBlue/Flickr

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner resigns by Dec. 2009?

jodie Slothower — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 17:21:36 -0800

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner may not have as much support from the Obama administration as he does from the New York banking industry.

He got dinged for failing to pay more than $34,000 in income taxes from 2001-04. Geithner has had a tough go convincing Democratic and Republican lawmakers on the revised bailout plans for the banks. Geithner also reportedly has had run-ins with Obama's top advisor David Axelrod on getting tougher with the banks.

If the U.S. economy doesn't respond quickly to the new plan, Geithner could be signaled as the one to blame.

Prediction: Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner resigns by Dec. 1, 2009.

Google Video shuts down by end of 2009?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 09:26:35 -0800

Google Video is on its last legs. (Note: Google Video is different from YouTube.) In mid-January, Google discontinued five products - Notebooks, Dodgeball, Jaiku, Google Mashup Editor, and Google Catalog Search. At the same time, Google announced it would discontinue uploads to Google Video.

Google says it will still host videos that are already uploaded to the site. At the same time, Google urges users to check out "YouTube's dynamic global community."

Last year, No. 2-ranked community prognisticator David Kuan ran a prediction that Google Video would be discontinued. The prediction did not come true, but certainly it was on the right path. So here's another shot.

Prediction: Google will shut down Google Video by the end of the 2009. A favorable judgment will be rendered if the big G rolls Google Video into YouTube. A shutdown, in this sense, means Google will remove any content it hosts on Google Video.

Motorola announces mobile division shutting down?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 10:07:31 -0800

Motorola co-chief executive Sanjay Jha said the company is "completely committed to making the handset business work."

However, Motorola's financials suggest the opposite. The company posted a huge Q4 loss of $3.6 billion. Sales in its struggling cell phone division dropped 51% to $2.3 billion for the quarter with an operating loss of $595 million. Motorola's market share for mobile devices has dropped to 6.5%, half of what it was a year ago.

Motorola has been scaling back on its mobile devision. It says it will develop a device based on the Google Android operating system later this year. Analysts are skeptical that an Android-based Motorola handset will be enough to save the company. In this environment it will be extremely difficult for the Motorola to sell off its mobile phone business.

Prediction: Motorola announces by the end of 2009 that it will shut down its fading mobile devices division.

Camera phone that clicks bill doesn't get passed in Congress?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 09:29:58 -0800

A New York Congressman wants cell phones with built-in cameras to make an audible click whenever a user takes a photo. Representative Peter King is sponsoring the Camera Phone Predator Alert Act to prevent sexual predators who use mobile phones from taking photos of children in public places like dressing rooms and bathrooms.

Rep. King sent the proposal to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce on Jan. 9 and the bill is currentlly under review.

The bill is getting some flack on tech blogs like Slashdot and PCWorld.

Prediction: This bill will not get passed through Congress by the end of 2009. A favorable judgment will include a majority vote from either the House or Senate not supporting the bill and/or the President not signing the bill.

Image: Thomas Hawk/Flickr

Google closes Knol by end of 2009?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 12:10:42 -0800

Google is on a rampage to get rid of its low-hanging fruit as a way to cut costs. Recently, the big G decided to drop Google Print Ads along with a number of other products like Jaiku, its Twitter-like competitor, and video uploads to Google Video.

Google launched Knol, a Wikipedia competitor, in July 2008. Google boasts that Knol has published more than 100,000 articles. That's great, except some say that no one is reading Knol and the site's filled with low-quality content.

Google apparently has no problems getting rid of products that don't gain traction. It dropped Lively, an online virtual community, just six months after it launched.

Prediction: Google will announce by the end of this year that Knol will go bust.

Apple announces a multi-core iPhone in 2009?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 15:36:55 -0800

Could Apple be building a four-core iPhone? Rumors began spilling out of CES that Apple is working on a multi-core iPhone to run more powerful and graphics-intensive apps like games and movies.

Imagination Technologies, a British mobile chip maker in which Apple owns a minor stake, introduced the PowerVR SGX543, its latest GPU unit at the Las Vegas show. The new multi-core chip is designed for mobile phones to run HD-quality video and graphics better. The current generations of the iPhone and iPod Touch use an older model of Imagination's graphics chips.

Apple analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray predicts that the company's next big projects are mobile-phone related. If that is the case, it makes sense that Imagination Technologies's SGX chip could make its way into a future generation of iPhones.

Prediction: Apple announces the company will be using a multi-core chip designed by Imagination Technologies in 2009. An announcement from Imagination Technologies that Apple will run its quad-core chip will be sufficient for this prediction to be judged a success.

Image: Apple

Steve Jobs steps down as Apple CEO by end of 2009?

David Kuan — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 17:26:25 -0800

A week after disclosing to Apple investors that he had a "hormonal imbalance," CEO Steve Jobs announced that he is taking a five-month medical leave. Apple's chief operating officer Tim Cook will take over day-to-day operations until the end of June.

Could this leave of absence suggest that Jobs, 53, is moving away from his chief executive role? Industry watchers have put Cook on the short list for Apple's next CEO. Fortune Magazine even ran a cover story last November on Cook questioning if he was being groomed by Jobs to run Apple.

Jobs says he'll resume his role as CEO in the second half of 2009 after he recovers. Jobs assured shareholders that he will "remain involved in major strategic decisions" while on leave. However, investors weren't convinced as shares of APPL dropped 7% in after-hours trading from the news.

Prediction: Apple will announce that Steve Jobs will step down as CEO before the end of 2009.

U.S. online advertising grows by more than 10% in 2009?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 13:39:04 -0800

The growth of online advertising dramatically slowed in 2008 with the start of the economic recession. After several years of healthy growth, U.S. spending for online advertising dropped by less than half, from 25% in 2007 to 12% in 2008.

Analysts forecast Internet ad spend will rise only 10% in 2009. eMarketer estimates that total U.S. online spend for '08 was $23.6 billion and this year will reach $25.7 billion. IDC's latest Internet Advertising Quarterly report also suggests that the growth has faltered. In Q3 2008 report says that "total U.S. advertising spending increased by 9.4% to $6.67 billion from $6.09 billion in the same quarter a year ago."

Others claim that the 10% prediction will get slashed again with expectations of a deepening recession.

Prediction: Will online ad spend in the U.S. Internet advertising continue to grow by more than 10% in 2009? This prediction will be judged once the IDC's U.S. Internet Advertising Quarterly Wrap-up 3Q 2009 report is released to the public in December 2009.

Google acquires Salesforce in 2009?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:59:52 -0800

Last year the Industry Standard ran a prediction that the Google-Salesforce merger would be announced by the end of 2008, which 91% of the community correctly guessed wouldn't happen.

There's a good chance, though, that Google will buy out Salesforce this year. IDC's 2009 Top 10 Predictions reports that "now that Microsoft has declared its intent to expand more broadly to the cloud, Google will finally make a move for Salesforce.com, or another business applications platform and portfolio (e.g., SugarCRM): an essential ingredient to building up its position as an destination."

Salesforce would be an attractive buy for Google. The search giant has made slow progress cracking the online business software market. Salesforce, the leader in cloud applications for corporations, has a market cap that's just under $4 billion. Google is sitting on more than $14 billion in cash.

Prediction: Google will announce an intent to acquire Salesforce by the end of 2009.

Image: Guerrilla Futures/Jason Tester's photostream, Flickr

Growth of US IT spending will drop by more than 80% in 2009?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:17:02 -0800

Last year in December the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared that the United Sates had been in recession since December 2007. As the financial crisis and economic recession further deepens, US IT investment and purchases will significantly slow down in 2009.

According to the IDC's 2008 Worldwide IT Spending Blackbook, the year-over-year IT spending growth rate in 2008 was 3.7%. In 2009, it is predicted that the US IT spending growth in 2009 will drop by more than 80% to below 0.75%.

This prediction will be judged once the IDC's Worldwide IT Spending Patterns: The Worldwide Black Book 2009 Q3 report is released to the public in late November 2009.

Image: Tracy O