The Third Pig

The Lazy Way To Beat The Market

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 18:50:20 -0500

At the extremes, the bottoms of bear markets and the tops of bull markets, you will undoubtedly hear that buy and hold is dead. We find ourselves in the former market (we hope) thus that old refrain has returned. Over the last 10 year, the S&P 500 has seen a -2.5% annual yield (ending 4/30). Those who become disenchanted with the buy and hold strategy are folks generally uncomfortable with what feels like doing nothing. Alternatively they set to a course of frenetic trading at what seem to be opportune times. Unfortunately this approach leads to very little except frustrated investors.

The Journal of Finance published a white paper by two Cal Berkeley professors, Brad Barber and Terrence Odean which chronicled the folly of the active trading approach. Right from the abstract of the paper they write:

Of 66,465 households with accounts at a large discount broker during 1991 to 1996, those that trade most earn an annual return of 11.4 percent, while the market returns 17.9 percent. The average household earns an annual return of 16.4 percent, tilts its common stock investment toward high-beta, small, value stocks, and turns over 75 percent of its portfolio annually. Overconfidence can explain high trading levels and the resulting poor performance of individual investors.

So how does an investor beat the market?

Relax: The first thing to do is to simply take a chill pill. Most of what you need to beat the market comes down to your temperment. If you can keep a cool head while all the world is losing theirs you will have a tremendous advantage. Fear and panic cause investors to make bad decisions more often than not. So stay cool.

Stop trading: Transactions costs, the least of which is commission, eat away at returns. As damaging is the bid-ask spread as well as the capital gains taxes paid on any small gains made. According to Barber and Odean:

The investment experience of individual investors is remarkably similar to the investment experience of mutual funds. As do individual investors, the average mutual fund underperforms a simple market index. Mutual funds trade often and their trading hurts performance. But trading by individual investors is even more deleterious to performance because individuals execute small trades and face higher proportional commission costs than mutual funds.

Control your emotions and your ego: Consistently beating the market is difficult. For this very reason it pays to take your emotions and your ego out of it. Do you really think you will create some investment approach that is somehow smarter and more fantastical than the methods used by Warren Buffett or John Templeton? It's foolhardy to chase the latest fad in investing (or to think you'll create it) when the tried and true works like a charm.

Hold just a few positions: The investor would do well to select only the stocks of companies he understands well. By doing so he will reduce his portfolio's risk by steering clear of permanently weak companies and avoiding overpriced firms, not by excessive diversification. Increasing portfolio positions past 20 to 30 positions does very little to reduce volatility any further. Interestingly though, increasing positions past this point will continue to reduce returns. According to mutual fund manager Robert Hagstrom, concentrated portfolios of 15 securities are 13 times more likely to outperform the market than portfolios of 250 securities. In other words, excessive diversification fails to effectively reduce volatility risk yet greatly handicaps the investor’s ability of beating the market.

Buy at the right price: Even the greatest company will not make a good investment if it is overpriced. Determining the correct price for an investment is difficult as it requires many assumptions. But it is essential to a sound investment process. If bought at a price below the company's real value, all an investor really needs to do is wait until the price of the stock reflects the true value of the company. Eventually, it will.

If an investor follows these few steps, he can relax on the beach and let others worry about the ups and downs of their portfolios.

Disclosure: none

All Star Investor Says The Market Is Still Cheap

Fri, 29 May 2009 16:55:16 -0500

We follow several investors whom we respect and share our value investing philosophy. These investors tend to deviate from the crowd in their opinions whether the market is cheap or overpriced (video), how to approach buying, how to value companies, and whether or not it's time to buy or sell. Bill Nygren of the Oakmark Funds is one of those investors.

In a recent interview with CNBC (video) Nygren says (actually he's quoted as saying):

"Almost everything in the stock market sells below our business value estimate."

Quite a statement. It's a great time to invest.

Disclosure: none

"Rich Dad" Article At Bizzia

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 11:25:44 -0500

Source: Flickr by Small Business Hawaii

Tisa Silver over at Bizzia noticed a post I did a while back regarding Robert Kiyosaki and his questionable math skills. She republished the article there and gave her own take on it as well. That article underscores why investors should always question, always investigate and always think for themselves.

Check out some of Tisa's other stuff as well here, here and here.

Below is an exerpt from the original post I wrote:

Dear Robert Kiyosaki,

I've read a few of your books. I must say that when I first read Rich Dad, Poor Dad I loved the general premise of “become financially literate”. That made sense to me. But I must tell you, my feeling on all the subsequent books that have come out of the Rich Dad camp has been that the books (as well as your advice) have become more and more absurd. For instance, what's up with the figures in your book, Who Took My Money?. ...

... Throughout Who Took My Money?, you suggest that simply by heeding your advice, an investor can achieve returns of 180% per year. Forgetting, that we don't know how you came up with that figure, let's look at what an annualized return of 180% would mean.

Let's say a 25 year old has $20,000 to invest and is able to receive an annualized 180% return over his investment lifetime – about 50 years. At that rate of return, and at the end of that period that 75 year old would have a comfortable nestegg of…drum roll please…

$455,965,058,160,294,000,000,000,000!

This is not a misprint. That investor, by investing in single family homes, would be a SEPTILLIONAIRE 455 times over. Now, Rob, are you really telling me that I can be 455 quadrillion times richer than someone who is a mere billionaire? Seriously? If you are, I just have to say that that seems a little far fetched to me. Especially when you consider that, according to the Federal Reserve's 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances, there was only $44 trillion dollars of wealth in the U.S. that year. If we applied an extraordinary rate of growth of 5% to that $44 trillion, in 50 years total U.S. wealth would reach,

$502,905,811,102,164.

Now Rob, are you telling me that by following the investment program you lay out in your book, that in 50 years, with one $20,000 investment, I can be 907 billion times richer that the entire U.S. population? I have to say Rob, I'm not buying this. But I'm sure this letter is falling on deaf ears. However, if the New York Times Bestseller list is any indication, a lot of people are buying it.

Sincerely,
Benjamin B. Taylor

Madoff Stole Money And Trust

Tue, 10 Mar 2009 15:22:32 -0500

Click here for video.

The AP reported today that Bernie Madoff will plead guilty to 11 criminal counts including money laundering, perjury and securities, mail and wire fraud and will do so without a plea deal, knowing it carries a potential prison term of 150 years. I find it kind of odd that Madoff would choose not to try and get a plea deal. But just another thing in an odd set of circumstances.

Adding to the weirdness is Madoff's lawyer, Ira Sorkin, and his family were investors with Madoff and lost nearly $1,000,000. Is Sorkin the best to represent Madoff? I know most out there don't really care about this potential conflict in interest. But I will always be a believer that everyone (even accussed money launderers) should be properly represented in court.

I have no idea if this is justice. Madoff seems to have stolen people's trust as much as he's stolen their money (now a reported $20 billion instead of the $50 billion first thought). More and more investors are going the do-it-yourself route because their trust has eroded. The tragedy is most investors going this route will fail. The most comprehensive study on the subject of individual investor performance was conducted by Professors Brad Barber and Terrence Odean. They found:

"Of 66,465 households with accounts at a large discount broker during 1991 to 1996... After accounting for the fact that the average household tilts its common stock investments toward small value stocks with high market risk… …the underperformance of average individual investor household is 3.7 percent annually.

The average household turns over approximately 75 percent of its common stock portfolio annually. The poor performance of the average household can be traced to the costs associated with this high level of trading.... Our most dramatic empirical evidence is provided by the 20 percent of households that trade the most often [with a turnover of 115%]… …the underperformance of hyper trading households averages 7.6 percent annually."

While prosecutor's have recovered about $1 billion for investors so far, how can they recover the trust that was lost? Not an easy question to answer. For our part, we will, over the next couple of days, get back to going through the10 red flags for spotting financial crooks. In the meantime check out parts one and two.

Disclosure: none

10 Signs Your Financial Advisor Is Stealing Your Money (Part 2)

Mon, 09 Mar 2009 17:55:39 -0500

Source: Reuters

Today Warren Buffet appeared on CNBC for 3 hours answering a multitude of questions from Becky Quick, Joe Kernen and a slew of emailers. One emailer from Cincinatti asked "How do we know that you are not another Bernie Madoff?" In response Buffett said:

"Well, that's a good question. I would say this. I--it is a problem with investment advisers. I mean, it--there are going to be a certain number of crooks in the world. And sometimes they're smooth-talking, and the best ones are the ones that kind of don't look like crooks... it is a problem who you put your trust in."

He then later agreed with Joe Kernen that an investor cannot rely totally on government regulation to catch these crooks. So what is an investor trying to protect herself to do?

I wrote a post (Part 1) back in September of last year with the intention of answering this question. This was before the Bernie Madoff or the R. Allen Stanford stories broke. In the post I promised 10 red flags which might alert an investor that his advisor is not on the up and up. I'm finally getting around to listing them. Today I'll do just a couple and get to the rest at a later date.

As a side note, The Wall Street Journal reports that the client list of Bernie Madoff became available to the public. The list contains well known and not so well known folks running the wealth spectrum. The one thing they all have in common is they are all considered sophisticated investors. The list should once and for all prove that "sophisticated" means little in the investment world and underscores my personal pet peeve with the restrictive accredited investor law. I digress.

1. Returns that (nearly) always go up:

If your advisor is reporting returns that always seem to go up, then you should regard his numbers with great skepticism. The markets are controlled by unpredictable human emotion and its movements simply can't be predicted. Madoff's firm produced returns of positive 1% to 2% in gains per month with only five negative months covering a period of 12 years. These types of returns are so improbable that an investor can almost stop here and safely speculate that they've encountered a ponzi scheme or at least an investment manager that is not telling the truth about his returns. But we'll go on.

2. Complex strategies that cannot be duplicated:

When and an advisor has to start using greek letters in formulas to explain his investment strategy, it's time to be concerned. Madoff used an investment strategy consisting of purchasing blue-chip stocks and then taking options contracts on them - a split-strike conversion or a collar. The strategy itself is not complicated. In fact, it's pretty plain vanilla. What was extraordinary are returns Madoff reportedly received with the strategy.

A few individuals attempted to perform due diligence but were unable to replicate the Madoff's past returns. Harry Markopolos was among those that tried. In an interview with 60 Minutes he said:

"As we know, markets go up and down, and his only went up. He had very few down months. Only four percent of the months were down months. And that would be equivalent to a baseball player in the major leagues batting .960 for a year. Clearly impossible. You would suspect cheating immediately... No one's that good."

The above represents a stark contrast to the investment approach employed by Mr. Buffett - value investing. Unlike the method employed by Mr. Madoff, it is niether complex nor does it produce returns that are always favorable. In fact, sometimes years go by without positive results. That's why it is so important to have a long term view as Buffett reiterated today in his interview with CNBC.

BECKY: Yeah. And on a serious note, there are people who look at the stock market and wonder how do they know the whole thing's not a Ponzi scheme?

BUFFETT: Well, the whole thing's not a Ponzi scheme.

BECKY: What--how do they know who to trust?

BUFFETT: We're talking about, you know--we're talking about American businesses that employ, just the ones on the stock market, tens and tens and tens of millions of people. They're real companies... in the 20th century, the Dow went from 66 to 11,000, you know, 400. And we had all kinds of problems during that period. Business works overall. It doesn't work every day or every week or every month, and sometimes it really gets gummed up. And then you need government invention sometimes to get the machines back working smoothly. But the machine works.

JOE: Warren...

BUFFETT: And equities, over time, are the way to do it.

Disclosure: none.

Is There Still Room For Optimism?

Fri, 20 Feb 2009 13:28:53 -0500

Flickr by Mr. Keef

Last week I did a video saying that I thought we were still in a new bull market. This was a follow up to a video I did in January listing some of the indicators I follow as reasons I thought we were in the early stages of a bull market. I pointed out that even with all the bad news about the economy, and jobs, and bailouts, the S&P 500 remained above 800. I saw this as a positive sign.

Since last week, the economic news has gotten worse. There have been renewed talks about nationalization of our banking system. [Psst. We’ve basically already nationalized the banks.] In response, the Dow reached a new 6-year low, penetrating the bottom it reached this past November. The S&P 500 broke through the 800 price barrier and threatens to challenge the low of 752 it reached last year. As of this moment (9:55 a.m.) the S&P 500 is trading at 769.

So was I wrong about this being a new bull market? Technically, no if the market holds where it is. Unless the S&P 500 falls below 752 (the November 20, 2008 price), this will still (technically) be considered a bull market. Recall I pointed out in the in first video that only once has the market declined 20% or more, rebounded 20% then, broke through the previous low. Could that happen now? Well we’re very close. It’s definitely possible.

Does any of this matter? Not really. The overall point I was trying to make in the videos and the past few posts on the topic is that stocks are cheap. They remain cheap. As I pointed out in the last video, we don’t know what the market or the economy will do in the next or any six month period. But it is highly probably the stock market will generate very good returns over the next five to ten years. And an investment in stocks now makes a lot of sense at these valuations. I’m still optimistic.

Next week I will be doing another video highlighting why I’m still optimistic about the market using some specific company examples. Stay tuned.

Are We Still In A New Bull Market?

Sat, 14 Feb 2009 12:41:42 -0500

View video on The Third Pig or YouTube

Last month I posted and videoed about whether or not we were in a bull market based on five market indicators. I said that one way to tell if we’re in the beginning of a bull market is to try to ascertain whether or not we had seen a bottom. I concluded that we had seen a bottom in the market (November 20th, 752 level in the S&P 500) and that we’re in a new bull market trend. Today I’d like to look at another three:

1. Worst GDP decline in 25 years

On January 30, 2009, the BEA reported that GDP shrank 3.8% in the 4th quarter of 2008 (chart below). This was the worst showing in 25 years. The last time the economy shrank this severely was the 1st quarter of 1982. What did the market do the day these figures came out? It declined 2.2%, falling from 845.1 to 825.9. Not much of a move considering the news.

2. Job losses skyrocketing and unemployment trending toward double digits

February 5, 2009, the Labor Department reported 598,000 were lost bringing the total since the beginning of 2008 to 3.6 million. The unemployment rate went up to 7.6% making it the highest it’s been in decades. What did the market do that day? It went up 2.7% from 845.9 to 868.8.

3. Market price to GDP ratio

Back in 2001, in a Fortune magazine article Warren Buffett presented a chart comparing the total market value of U.S. based business as a percentage of GNP. An update of that chart is presented below. In the article Buffett said, “If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% to 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you." Currently this ratio sits below 75%.

I compared the market value of U.S. equities using the Wilshire 5000 index which comprises all stocks traded on the major exchanges in the U.S. I then compared it to GDP, a decent proxy for GNP. At the November 20th low, the percentage relationship between the two figures was 64% (Wilshire 5000 = 7.4 trillion and GDP = 11.7 trillion) and by the end of December remained below 80%.

Even if the market breaks through the 800 level, which who knows, it might, I am still on the side of this being a new bull market.

Disclosure: I and the clients of Brick Financial Management, LLC are own shares of iShares S&P 500 Index ETF but positions can change at anytime.

"You Ought To Be Rich" at the Tao of Talani

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 08:57:33 -0500

Source: Tao of Talani

I would like to make you aware of a great new blog I think will be of interest to many of you who read The Third Pig. It is the Tao of Talani. In the About section of the blog you'll find Talani's story. He writes:

How does a skinny New York City kid grow up to rub elbows with Will Smith, Magic Johnson, Denzel Washington, CEO's, Politicians and other prominent figures? Simply, never define anything as IMPOSSIBLE. I didn't mention high profile names to impress but to impress upon you that anyone can create there reality.

He goes on to tell us his purpose for the blog:

In The TAO OF TALANI blog I share my experiences as a humble student, emphasizing there is no wrong or right way to achieve your goals. The blog is specifically designed for self-empowerment, entrepreneurs and lifehackers seeking to create a productive new reality. My objective is to be an asset to the collective by sharing knowledge from leading thinkers and doers.

Tuesday I contributing a post to the Tao of Talani titled, "You Ought To Be Rich". The post provides 10 simple but admittedly not easy steps to follow toward wealth. Please visit the blog and leave a comment there, or here, and let me know what you think.

Disclosure: none

Are We In A New Bull Market?

Wed, 28 Jan 2009 19:35:16 -0500

Two weeks ago I posted a video on YouTube declaring that I thought we were in the midst of a new bull market. I went on to say, in order to tell if we have entered a new bull market it is best to try and determine if we have seen a market bottom. November 20, 2008 was the day the S&P 500 reached 752. As of January 6, 2009 when the S&P 500 reached 934.7, it represented a 24% advance from the November 20th low. Technically, once an advance of 20% or more is underway that is a new bull market. But in an effort to be thorough, I went through five criteria I look at to determine if we were in fact in a new bull market.

Truthfully, I stole the criteria from Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. In the book, Chapter 8, “The Investor and Market Fluctuations”, Graham explains how to recognize market tops. He gives five criteria. I simply turned those criteria on their head and replaced one with another I think is more relevant (at least to me). The criteria were:

1. A significantly low price in the market index.

From Oct. 9, 2007 through Nov. 20, 2008, the S&P 500 declined 52%, making it the third-worst bear market since the 1929-32 crash which saw a decline of 54%. The only other decline more significant than the ones just mentioned was 89% during the Great Depression. Additionally, the calendar year decline of 39% was only surpassed two other times in (1931 and 1937) in over 180 years. In other words the severity of the decline indicates that we are at a significantly low price.

2. A significantly low P/E on the market

At the 752 level, the S&P 500 was trading at a P/E ratio on trailing operating earnings per share of 11.5x. This is equal to the lowest operating P/E ratio in the 20 years that S&P has been tracking operating results and significantly lower than the average operating P/E ratio of 19.3x since 1988.

Another P/E measure is the Graham P/E (named for Benjamin Graham) which uses an inflation adjusted 10-year average for earnings. For the nine previous bear market bottoms the Graham P/E averaged 14.4x. At the 752 level in the S&P 500 the Graham P/E clocked in at 12.3x. This was lower than even markedly low P/Es.

3. High Stock market dividend yields ~~versus~~ relative to long-term bond yields

Dividends paid by Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies in the 12 months prior to December of 2008 amounted to 3.5% of the benchmark’s closing value yesterday. In early December, the 10-year yield fell as low as 3.4%. Intuitively, stocks should yield more than bonds as they represent the more volatile investment. However since 1958, 10-year notes have yielded on average 3.7% more than stock dividends. The present condition, dividend yields higher than bond yields, serves as an indicator stocks are priced the lowest they have been relative to bonds in 50 years.

4. Low Level of margin accounts

Margin is commonly used in a speculative manner. When the market is rising, buying stocks with borrowed money can and does juice returns. But in a declining market, they can be a death certificate. Margin accounts declined 47% from July of 2007 to November of 2008.

5. High volatility in the market

The best measure of volatility we have today is the CBOE VIX. The VIX, is also called the fear index. When it is high it indicates there is a plethora of panic selling in the market driving prices down. Market prices and the level of the VIX move in opposite directions. Historically, a VIX above 20-25 meant there was a lot of selling. Since the high of October 2007 to date, the VIX has averaged almost 32 and even reached an intraday high approaching 90. Warren Buffett himself even indicated he had never sell panic like this in all his years of investing. Panic selling usually means market bottoms.

Although we have seen the market pull back from the 934 price it reached on January 6^th, it has not dipped below 800 since then. If history is any indicator, we are in the first few days of a new bull market.

Disclosure: I and the clients of Brick Financial Management, LLC are own shares of iShares S&P 500 Index ETF but positions can change at anytime.

Congratulations President Barack Obama

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 13:02:51 -0500

Source: Flickr by Cloganese

I just wanted to take a moment away from writing about personal finances and investment to simply be an American today.

The inauguration of Barack Obama as our 44th president is a monumental event. I feel ~~proud~~ grateful to have witnessed an event that gives people the feeling of inclusion, possibilities and hopefulness. Those are the exact elements the country needs to move forward in this difficult time and in difficult times to come.

I want to congratulate President Obama on what he has achieved. I want to wish him luck on what lies before him. And I want to thank him for having the fortitude and the courage to take on the task of the Presidency of the United States of America.

Today I am very proud to be an American and I hope you who are reading this feel as I do.

Disclosure: none

Investors Should Have A Healthy Distrust Of Management

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 19:06:54 -0500

Source: Flickr by marcopako

A few happenings with CEOs had me thinking. Valuing management in the investment decision is important as management has a lot though not ultimate influence over the success or failure of a business. Thus much attention needs to be given to who is at the helm of the businesses in which an investor has placed his money.

Some stories that caught my attention over the past couple of days:

Wednesday, Apple Computer (AAPL) founder and CEO, Steve Jobs, announced he would be taking a leave from the CEO post due to pre-existing health issues that suddenly became more serious than he had originally thought they were. The stock had to be halted in trading for a time and ultimately dropped from $85 to $81 on Thursday. Prior to this Jobs and Apple had insisted he was in perfect health.
Late last year, Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America (BAC) offered to buy Merrill Lynch and insisted his bank was financially stable. According to the Wall Street Journal, Lewis was simultaneously negotiating $20 billion in TARP funds with the Treasury department.
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) had a conference yesterday in which CEO Jim O’Donnell assured investors the company was well positioned for the coming future despite the tough holiday season. About a year ago, O’Donnell said he did not think we were in a consumer led recession.

Candor is among the rarest of traits amongst people and CEOs and management of large corporations are no exception. Sometimes it is simply not being forthright. Other times it is outright lying. Even the most sophisticated of investors can succumb placing more trust in the CEO than they ever should. I can recall an article in which managers of mutual fund company Janus had to explain why the firm as a whole owned over 40 million shares of Enron even as the company filed for bankruptcy. Their answer essentially came down to they believed the pack of lies Enron management told them.

Bottom line is while an investor should assess management, everything management says should be verified in the numbers. If management’s words do not show up in performance of the company, then their words are meaningless. And if management cannot be honest about its CEO’s health, or deals they are negotiating or is eternally optimistic despite the evidence of a tough market, then they should be viewed with even greater skepticism.

Disclosure: I and the clients of Brick Financial Management owned share of American Eagle at the time of this writing. But positions can change at any time.

American Eagle and Abercrombie: Inventory Foretells Margin Squeeze

Sat, 10 Jan 2009 02:09:41 -0500

Source: Flickr by k-ideas

This holiday shopping season has been dismal for retailers. Retail sales slipped dramatically year-over-year. Luxury sales were most hard hit clocking in at a 35% drop in sales year-over-year while women’s apparel saw a 23% decline. Most retailers resorted to large discounting of their products to move merchandise. One retailer however decided to go against the retail herd and refused to discount any of their merchandise sacrificing sales in the interim.

Video

Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) considers itself a premium brand in the teen apparel space. The company believes discounting will hurt the brand. According to Chairman and Chief Executive Michael Jeffries in an earnings call with analysts, "promotions are a short-term solution with dreadful long-term effects." Abercrombie’s main competitor in the space, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), on the other hand has aggressively discounted its products in an effort to move inventory.

I believe Jeffries has a point. In a post the last summer, I suggested Target (TGT) should raise their prices in an effort to match the perception that Target more expensive than competitor Walmart (WMT). Human psychology has us place a higher value on items that are higher priced. Jeffries is aware of this psychology thus believes discounting will erode consumers’ perception they company's tees and jeans are of higher value than their competitors. Even though any casual observer can see Abercrombie’s and American Eagle’s clothing is of the exact same quality.

Generally, I would not have a problem with Abercrombie’s approach. But, if the company is going to successfully execute the no discount policy, they must do a better job with inventory management. Abercrombie seems to have flooded stores with merchandise consumers seem, for the moment at least, unwilling to buy. On the other hand, American Eagle has scaled back on inventory growth anticipating a tough holiday season. Sales and inventory growth for the most recent quarter from the same quarter a year ago are as follows:

Abercrombie’s, as opposed to American Eagle’s, aggressive approach in inventory management is bound to cut into the company's margins. For the most recent quarter Abercrombie has gross margins of 66% and has averaged the same over the last five years. American Eagle on the other hand has gross margins for the most recent quarter of 41%, down from its five year average of 46%.

Operating margins are another story. While Abercrombie sports some very high gross margins, their operating margins are very close to American Eagle’s. In fact Abercrombie’s cavalier attitude regarding inventory management, among other things, has chipped away at its operating margins. Abercrombie’s average operating margins for the past five years were 19% but were only 11% in its most recent quarter. Meanwhile American Eagle’s operating margins for the past five years average 18% but were 13% in the most recent quarter.

Although both companies will see their margins shrink due to anemic consumer market, I would bet you will see American Eagle’s operating margins continue the trend of outpacing the margins of Abercrombie’s in the very near future. Although both stocks are down substantially over the last year, I would expect American Eagle to rebound while I am not too optimistic about Abercrombie right now.

Disclosure: I and the clients of Brick Financial Management, LLC owned share of American Eagle Outfitters and Target at the time of this writing. But positions can change at any time.

"The Third Pig" On Reuters, Yahoo Finance and Others

Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:28:38 -0500

Articles that appear on The Third Pig occasionally appear on the Seeking Alpha website and are regularly picked up by the general financial media outlets including Yahoo Finance, Reuters and other financial blogs. I have listed some of the latest entries and other locations they can be found:

Asset Allocation in 2009: Best to Go with the Devil You Know at:
Yahoo Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=SBUX and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/b?s=BRK-A
Fav.or.it: http://fav.or.it/post/953406/asset-allocation-in-2009-best-to-go-with-the-devil-you-know

Coach: Luxury on the Cheap at:
Guru Focus: http://www.gurufocus.com/forum/read.php?2,42620
Fav.or.it: http://fav.or.it/post/929527/coach-luxury-on-the-cheap

Five Things to Be Thankful for in This Market at:
Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/marketViews?symbol=COH.N
Yahoo Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/b?s=COH&t=2008-12-15T03:55:28-05:00

GM Bailout Would Be Agony For Taxpayers at:
Yahoo Finance: http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/news/330.html?time=1226885400

Obamanomics and the Stock Market at:
Stock Shoot: http://stockshoot.com/content/view/6602

Buffett and Cramer Agree: It’s Time to Buy Stocks at:
AOL Finance in the Headlines area: http://finance.aol.com/related/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b/brk.b/NYS?topic=144012971&tab=3

Greed, When Others Are Fearful, Is Good at:
Wall Street Oasis: http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/newswire/greed-when-others-are-fearful-is-good

If you would like to share some of the above articles with your friends, family or associates just click any one of the icons below for the various websites including ShareThis, Digg.com and Facebook. Here is to a wonderful 2009 in the market.

Disclosure: none

Best To Go With The Devil You Know

Fri, 02 Jan 2009 18:10:17 -0500

The stock market ended the year of 2008 posting one of its worst annual price performances ever. The Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 38.5% for the year marking its worst performance since 1937’s 39% drop in the index. In fact it was the first time the index saw a 30% or more drop in price in those 71 years. So if you survived this year, give yourself a pat on the back.

Investors over the past year made many wrong moves, paralyzed by fear, they drove down stock market prices to unreasonable levels. One bright spot is patient investors could invest in stocks very cheaply. Valuation levels had not been at those levels since the early 1980’s. Although the S&P 500 has advanced more than 20% from its low of November 20^th, there remain bargains to be had.

With so many bargains to choose from, some investors may experience paralysis because of greed. Which stock does one pick? In such an instance, it is best to invoke the spirit of Charles Munger, co-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. In an Outstanding Investor Digest article some years back Munger was quoted as saying:

“For an ordinary individual, the best thing you already have should be your measuring stick. If the new thing isn’t better than what you already know is available then it hasn’t met your threshold. This screens out 99 percent of what you see.”

Although I picked up a few new positions for myself and my clients’ portfolios, in following Munger’s advice I found that the positions already in the portfolios were of solid companies that were similarly beat down as the market. Every nook and crannie of the market was hurt this year. It couldn't be avoided. And the potential of being hurt further is still present. However, when choosing where to allocate funds, sometimes it is best to go with "the devil you know".

Instead of scouring the investment universe for the new thing, I simply averaged down. The following chart marks the return of a few positions from the beginning of the year to the S&P 500’s low on November 20^th and then the return to the end of the year from that November date compared to the market’s return.

Although as a group the stock of these companies declined to a similar degree as the market, their rebound so far as been nearly 50% greater. Although it is too soon to say, I believe superior companies will bounce back to a greater degree than the average stock. I think this is what we are seeing in the chart above.

Disclosure: I and the clients of Brick Financial Management, LLC owned shares in all the companies mentioned in this post at the time of this writing. But positions may change at any time.

Coach’s Bags Are Expensive, But the Stock Is Cheap

Wed, 24 Dec 2008 14:08:40 -0500

Source: Flickr by danperry.com

When the holiday shopping season is done for 2008 the results for retailers will show disappointing numbers. Consumers continue to pinch their pennies in this tough economic environment. The International Council of Shopping Centers expects November and December sales at stores open at least a year to fall as much as 1 percent, the largest drop since at least 1969, when the trade group began tracking such data [video].

However, there’s beauty in those numbers for stock investors. While the industry as a whole has performed poorly operationally, some have weathered the storm quite well. But panicked investors have thrown the baby out with the bathwater, pricing the stock of strong companies below reasonable levels.

Take for instance luxury bag and apparel designer, Coach, Inc (COH). Year-to-date, Coach is down 34% right along with the Apparel, Accessory and Luxury Goods sector which is down 37% as of December 19^th. But the company has been around for nearly 70 years, a period which has seen at least 10 recessions. Certainly it has seen and weathered some bad times before. Since going public in 2000 they’ve done nothing but continue to strengthen the company.

According to Standard & Poor’s, “For the five years through FY 08, COH exhibited a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27%, a gross profit CAGR of 29%, an EBIT CAGR of 37%, and a net income CAGR of 40%. Total assets grew at a five-year CAGR of 30%, and inventory at a modest 19% CAGR, attesting to a tight operating structure that reduces inventory risk.” The company also sports gross margins of 74%, the highest in the industry. Only Luis Vuitton (LVMHF.PK) comes close with gross margins of 64%.

Coach also holds a commanding lead in the luxury handbag market in the U.S. and is making strides in Japan with a market share 13% behind only Luis Vuitton’s 30% share of the market. Coach sees promise overseas, especially in China. It expects the overall market to more than double in size over the next 5 years to more than $2.5 billion in annual sales, up from of $1.2 billion now.

Even in this difficult environment, Coach has increased sales 18 percent year-over-year has essentially no debt to speak of. Louis Vuitton on the other hand has $4.5 billion in long-term debt and a total-debt-to-equity (TDE) ratio 52%. The industry’s average TDE is 27% (Source: Reuters).

The bags may be expensive at Coach but the stock is cheap. In my humble opinion, a company that is able to perform like this even in bad times is deserving of more than the 9x trailing earnings it now fetches.

Disclosure: I and the clients of Brick Financial Management, LLC owned share of Coach (COH) at the time of this writing. But positions may change at any time.