Third Quarter Collapse

Today's Game: Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics

Ben Q Rock — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 10:10:28 PDT

UPDATE: Boston Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo is listed as out for today's game. Stephon Marbury will get the start in his place.

2008/2009 NBA Regular Season
	@
45-16		49-14
March 8th, 2009
TD Banknorth Garden
1:00 PM
FSN Florida HD
Probable starters:
Rafer Alston	PG	Stephon Marbury
Courtney Lee	SG	Ray Allen
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Paul Pierce
Rashard Lewis	PF	Glen Davis
Dwight Howard	C	Kendrick Perkins
Previous Meetings:
December 1st: Celtics 107, Magic 88
January 22nd: Celtics 90, Magic 80

Apart from their three-game winning streak, about the only thing the Orlando Magic have going for them in this afternoon's contest with the Boston Celtics is that Boston's best player, Kevin Garnett, is out due to a strained right knee. If the Magic want to extend that win streak, they can't count on rallying in the fourth quarter as they have in the past three games. Even if they manage to hold a lead through the first three quarters, it won't be safe. Boston is 8-5 when trailing after three quarters, the only plus-.500 mark in the league. What, did you expect anything less from the defending champions?

One point of particular concern for Orlando this afternoon is its inability to force turnovers; the Magic are 26th in the league in defensive turnover rate, forcing miscues on 14.1% of its opponent's possessions. Teams need not force turnovers to have great defenses--Detroit and San Antonio are top-five defensively, and they force fewer turnovers than Orlando--but against Boston, it's a problem. As CelticsHub notes, the Celtics are nigh-unstoppable when they don't turn it over. In the Kevin Garnett/Ray Allen/Paul Pierce era, Boston is 27-3 when it commits 11 turnovers or fewer. For the record, Orlando has forced 11 turnovers or fewer in 54 games since Stan Van Gundy and Rashard Lewis came aboard.

So the Magic need to be more active in the passing lanes than they usually are today against a turnover-prone team. That's obviously much easier said than done. If they can't force turnovers, I'm not exactly sure how they'll win. Paul Pierce is a guy who always seems to go off against the Magic, and he's really lit-up Hedo Turkoglu of late. Rashard Lewis usually has a quickness advantage against opposing power forwards, but that advantage will be even more pronounced today against Glen Davis, whom the Celtics charitably list at 289 pounds. Then again, the Celtics' interior defense is so strong--ask Dwight Howard--and (arguably) so dirty--ask Jason Maxiell, Anderson Varejao, or Tom Ziller--that it might behoove Lewis to hoist three-pointers all day.

For whatever reason, this 1 PM Sunday matinee is not nationally televised. David Steele and Matt Guokas, as always, will have the call for FSN Florida, which is broadcasting the game in high definition. A Magic win today, however improbable, would go a long way toward boosting their confidence, and would still give them a chance of tying the season-series with Boston instead of losing it outright; they meet once more after today. Go Magic.

Advanced Statistics Illustrate the Orlando Magic's Recent Fourth-Quarter Dominance

Ben Q Rock — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 14:57:32 PST

Check out erivera's latest player comparison, in case you missed it. Thanks - BQR

The Orlando Magic have trailed after the third period in each game of their current three-game winning streak. They've impressed with their ability to dig themselves out of deep holes in a hurry, usually with their defense. Here's how the fourth-quarter four factors look for the Magic and their opponents look over the last three games combined, with a tip of the hat to PopcornMachine for the raw statistics.

Team	Pace	Efficiency	eFG%	FT Rate	OReb%	TO Rate
Magic	75	121.8	55.2%	46.6	33.3	17.4
Opponents	75	72.0	30.5%	30.5	15.4	14.7

Apart from the hideous turnover rate--if the Magic turned the ball over at that rate for this entire season, they'd be tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Boston Celtics for the second-worst such figure in the league--it's hard to complain about how the Magic have played in the last three fourth quarters.

Of course, I'd be much more impressed if they could take care of business early and didn't need to count on brilliant fourth-quarter play. But hey, their three-game winning streak is the longest since All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. We'll take the wins, thanks.

Player Comparison #5

erivera7 — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 12:15:07 PST

This past week has been entertaining, to say the least. First, we had Shaq v. Dwight both off the court and on the court. Then, if that wasn't enough, we had Shaq v. Stan Van Gundy, just off the court (links galore).

It's definitely been interesting covering "Flop Gate" as it unfolds, but it's become a subject that's both played out and old. However, before the issue is laid to rest, it's only right the inevitable occurs.

You know what time it is.

Player A:

Season A -

Minutes Per Game (36.2)

PER (25.5)

TS% (60.1%)

eFG% (56.9%)

ORB% (14.1%)

DRB% (29.5%)

TRB% (22.1%)

Win Shares (10.5)

Player B:

Season B -

Minutes Per Game (36.0)

PER (26.4)

TS% (57.0%)

eFG% (57.4%)

ORB% (11.1%)

DRB% (24.2%)

TRB% (17.8%)

Win Shares (10.4)

One of these players is indeed Dwight David Howard. The other player, however, can not be named. Can you decipher who is who? Make your choice.

Click after the jump to see the results.

[Share your guess in the comments section, if you'd like].

Dwight Howard:

2008 - 2009 Season -

Minutes Per Game (36.2)

PER (25.5)

TS% (60.1%)

eFG% (56.9%)

ORB% (14.1%)

DRB% (29.5%)

TRB% (22.1%)

Win Shares (10.5) in 59 games

Shaquille O'Neal:

1995-1996 Season -

Minutes Per Game (36.0)

PER (26.4)

TS% (57.0%)

eFG% (57.4%)

ORB% (11.1%)

DRB% (24.2%)

TRB% (17.8%)

projected Win Shares (10.4) in 82 games

If you guessed Shaq as the link to Dwight, congratulations, you have won the game.

But if you didn't .. well, be lucky that the penalty isn't impending death.

Until next time.

Orlando Magic 105, New Jersey Nets 102

Ben Q Rock — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:38:59 PST

Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic shoots over Keyon Dooling of the New Jersey Nets in Orlando's 105-102 victory

Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

The Orlando Magic earned their third straight victory with a 105-102 win over the New Jersey Nets on Friday night. Orlando outscored New Jersey in the fourth quarter, 22-16, for yet another come-from-behind win. The teams' respective cornerstones did the heavy lifting, as Orlando's Dwight Howard tallied game-highs with 26 points and 15 rebounds, while New Jersey's Devin Harris had 25 points and a game-high 9 assists. Rashard Lewis, the other All-Star in the game, scored the first 6 points of an 8-0 Magic run in the final quarter which gave them a 98-97 lead with 5:22 to play. Hedo Turkoglu took control from there, scoring Orlando's next 8 points and putting the game away on two beautiful fadeaway jumpers from the left baseline. Both times, the Magic were able to create a mismatch with the 6'03" Harris forced to guard the 6'10" Turkoglu in a post-up situation. Mister Fourth Quarter strikes again.

Team	Pace	Efficiency	eFG%	FT Rate	OReb%	TO Rate
Nets	95	107.4	55.2%	22.1	10.3	11.6
Magic	95	110.4	48.2%	31.7	31.0	16.8

Wins like this one must feel good for the Magic, who once again needed a dominant team-wide defensive stand in the fourth period--the Nets shot 1-for-10 and committed 2 turnovers over the game's last 6:16, says Dave D'Alessandro--to defeat a team on the fringe of playoff contention . Here's how Kyle Hightower put it:

[Stan Van Gundy's postgame] message was simple - playing hard to win in the fourth quarter is good. Always being in a position to play catch-up, however, gets a little tiresome.

For the team's sake, not to mention that of their fans' blood pressure, I hope the Magic wake up soon. Even with their masterful fourth-quarter defense, the Magic had a poor game on that side of the ball by anyone's standards. Devin Harris got to wherever he wanted, whenever he wanted to, and hardly missed in the game's first three quarters. Equally frustrating was Yi Jianlian's efficient performance (12 points, 4-of-6 shooting) and the Magic's failure to communicate effectively. New Jersey runs a simple, dribble-drive offense which is designed to maximize Harris' strengths as a penetrator and finisher. I did not tally how many times Harris or Vince Carter, who played point guard for brief stretches, were able to find a big man cutting across the lane for an easy bucket. Think of it this way: for the first three quarters, the Nets were knifing through the Magic's defense with uncanny precision, like it wasn't even there. And if the New Jersey freaking Nets are carving up your defense in early-March, you might be in some trouble. Clearly, I disagree with Anthony Johnson's assessment of the team's defense tonight. From the Associated Press:

"We haven't really done that in a while," Magic guard Anthony Johnson said of the defensive effort. "It's been a couple months since we put together a full 48-minute game where we've had the defensive focus of a championship team."

However, Orlando's offense was there. Mickael Pietrus, whom I ripped in the news update today, made the most of his 27 minutes. Air France shot 4-of-9 from the field (3-of-6 on three-pointers) for 14 points and added 7 rebounds for good measure. Van Gundy was right when he said Pietrus' size is a boon for the Magic's defense, as he was able to body-up against Carter better than Courtney Lee could ever hope to (though not for lack of trying). Carter had it going on in the second half, but was unimpressive overall, with 19 points on 22 shots.

Also there for Orlando was Dwight Howard. He had a foul-plagued second half, which obscures how dominant he was in the first half. I mentioned Dwight's overall totals before in this recap, but it bears repeating: 26 points, 15 rebounds. Both totals exceed those of the Nets' entire starting frontcourt: Brook Lopez, Trenton Hassell, and Yi combined for 25 points and 13 rebounds. Dwight got whatever he wanted early, and put the Nets' bigs in foul trouble, drawing 2 fouls apiece from Lopez and Yi in the opening period, and 3 from reserve center Sean Williams. The Nets tightened their D on Howard in the second half, but it was too late.

But drawing fouls isn't the only thing; it's only good if you make the free throws, which is why the FTRate in the four-factors chart measure free throws made per field goal attempt. Again, Dwight converted at the foul line, making 12 of his 14 attempts. On a volume basis, that's his finest showing from the line this season. The 85.7% conversion rate is his fourth-highest percentage of the season, and in none of the performances preceding it did he make more than 8 freebies. Since the All-Star Break, Dwight has shot 67.8% from the foul line. That doesn't sound like much, I know, but for a guy who shot 58.8% before the break, it's a huge improvement.

Finally, it must be said that the Magic's point guards did their thang. Rafer Alston missed his fair share of ill-advised floaters, but nonetheless ha 11 points, 4 boards, 6 assists, and 0 turnovers as he made the Magic's offense hum. And because Anthony Johnson made 3 of his 4 shot attempts and scored 9 points, I can overlook his 3 turnovers. Really, all the Magic players had great offensive nights. It's the defense that we should worry about. As Hightower notes in the blog post linked above, this same come-from-behind thing isn't going to cut it against Boston and Detroit, Orlando's next two opponents.

Tonight's Game: New Jersey Nets at Orlando Magic

Ben Q Rock — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 15:41:55 PST

2008/2009 NBA Regular Season
	@
27-34		44-16
March 6th, 2009
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Devin Harris	PG	Rafer Alston
Vince Carter	SG	Courtney Lee
Trenton Hassell	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Yi Jianlian	PF	Rashard Lewis
Brook Lopez	C	Dwight Howard
Previous Meetings:
February 8th: Magic 101, Nets 84

When the Orlando Magic play the New Jersey Nets tonight, it will be their first game after two days off. Tonight is the first of a three-games-in-four-nights set, which is capped with a Sunday/Monday set at Boston and at Detroit. The Magic are a combined 0-4 against those teams this year, which means they could really use a win tonight.

They made fairly quick look of a New Jersey team that was playing without Vince Carter last month, which put the offensive load squarely on Devin Harris' shoulders. Harris is a deserving All-Star, but against a top-5 defense, he can't carry a team. Rookie center/robot 18-wheeler/insightful interviewee Brook Lopez had his moments against Dwight Howard, and that might continue tonight, with the Magic needing to focus on Carter. Not that I expect Lopez to make Dwight look silly or anything.

Anyone else hoping for another strong performance from Rashard Lewis, who carried the Magic to victory Tuesday night? Sweet Lew should have no trouble against Yi Jianlian, and it'd be in the Magic's best interests to go to him on the left block early and often, even if it means taking Howard out of the play. One final thought: good luck against Vince, Courtney.

Tip's at 7. Let's pad that record. Go Magic.

Orlando Magic News for March 6th: Courtney Lee Has Not Clinched the Starting Shooting Guard Spot, and More on the Shaq/Stan Feud

Ben Q Rock — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:09:59 PST

Before getting to the bevy of links regarding the feud between Shaquille O'Neal and Stan Van Gundy, we'll post this link, which actually relates to the Orlando Magic. Shocking, I know.

Despite having started the Magic's last 7 games, Courtney Lee hasn't locked down the starting shooting-guard job for the playoffs. Mickael Pietrus is still in the running, says Van Gundy:

"I really don't know," Van Gundy said when asked about the two-guard job. "MP has the size and athleticism at the 2-spot. We need to be bigger there some nights. He has to get back to being healthy.

"He has been in and out of the lineup and it's disruptive. We'll see where he's at before we make a decision."

Pietrus played well early in the year, but hasn't been the same since he fractured his wrist against Detroit. Lee's played well the entire season, and I'm all in favor of his starting at shooting guard the rest of the season. Seriously, Lee's doing all the things the Magic signed Pietrus to do, namely:
- defend;
- and hit three-pointers.
Also, he's three years younger and he knows his limitations as a player. Is it obvious that MP is in my doghouse right now?

As promised, more on the feud between O'Neal and Van Gundy, of which I have already grown tired, will follow the jump.

Chris Duncan of the Associated Press reports that Shaq has fired another salvo at Van Gundy:

"Don't play with me," O'Neal said. "Seriously, don't play with me. Like I said earlier, I don't like frontrunners. I think he used the wrong choice of words. Flopping means that, hey, Shaq does that all the time. The rules say, you take it in the middle, you've got to fall back. And that's what I did."
Later in the same AP piece, Shaq explains what a flop means to him:

"Flopping has become a big concern, but I just take it as a sign of ultimate respect," O'Neal said. "(A player thinks), I can't guard you. I'm just going to fall down and cry to the refs.' Most of the time, the ref believes it."

So I guess when Shaq flopped while trying to guard Dwight Howard, he was just being respectful...? How kind of him.
Perhaps nobody in the blogosphere parses words quite like Bethlehem Shoals, who has a special All-Shaq version of his Quotemonger feature at SLAM:

Some general indignation about SVG's comments:

"I'm not going to sit around and let nobodies take a shot at me and he is a nobody to me. And if he thinks he can get in a little press conference and take shots at me like I'm not going to (say) something back, he's got another thing coming."

Translation: Because there's no way I'm not having a press conference twice as long, with ten times as many money lines, that escalates this into something between a feud and a chance to show I can still lead SportsCenter just by opening my mouth.
Jerry Greene asked Magic GM Otis Smith for his thoughts on the feud between O'Neal and Van Gundy. Here's how Otis responded:

"Reality TV," he said, slowing to a chuckle. "That's what it sounds like to me. And if Shaq is involved, you know it's reality TV with a lot of promotion involved, too."

Create A Caption #3 Winner

erivera7 — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 12:49:27 PST

Well, 24 hours have passed and we have a winner in Third Quarter Collapse's third "create a caption" competition. There were a lot of good submissions but only one caption could be chosen. So without further ado ..

Patrick Ewing: No, I don't know where to buy steroids in Orlando.

3QC member betterthanburke comes away the winner, garnering six "recs/votes" and the elusive "highlighted" comment (need five recs or more for that to occur)!

We'll do this again soon!

For those that participated, thanks. If you didn't win the contest this time around, you'll have another crack at garnering precious glory in the near future. Stay tuned.

Orlando Magic News for March 5th: SVG Provides His Rebuttal To Shaq; Rafer Alston's Journey From The Streets To The NBA

erivera7 — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 16:45:09 PST

Adrian Wojnarowski from Yahoo! Sports provides his take on "Flop Gate" (HT: funny80sguy).
After Shaquille O'Neal lashed out at Stan Van Gundy yesterday for Van Gundy's comments concerning O'Neal flopping in Orlando's victory over the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night, Stan provides his rebuttal today. Here are some quotes from coach:

"That’s not his normal comments. Obviously I struck a nerve and hurt his feelings. Shaq’s a very sensitive guy. If I hurt his feelings, I’m sorry."

"I’m pretty sure that every player who’s ever played for me doesn’t hate me. Now we’d have to do a survey, but I’ve coached a lot of guys, and I’m pretty sure there’s one or two that don’t hate me. I don’t know that any liked me. But I’m pretty sure there’s one or two who don’t hate me. So I don’t worry about that because, quite honestly, I don’t think it’s true."

"I started it. I made my comment. If you’re going to dish it out, you’ve got to be able to take it. And I can take it."
The picture below is currently being featured on the Magic's page on the Orlando Sentinel's website right now. Hilarious, no?
Kyle Hightower writes a nice piece regarding Rafer Alston's "rags to riches" story. I suggest giving the article a read.
If you've yet to "create a caption" in today's competition, don't forget to do so here. Thanks.

Create A Caption #3

erivera7 — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 12:15:06 PST

Let's double the fun, shall we? You have the option of creating a caption for either picture, or both of them if you're ambitious. The choice is yours.

(insert caption here)

Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

(insert caption here)

Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

Ed. note: The above people in this picture are pitchers Joba Chamberlain, CC Sabathia, and Chien-Ming Wang from the Yankees.

I'm sure everyone here is familiar with a "create a caption" competition, but in case someone here doesn't know what this type of contest is .. basically a picture is provided and you, the reader, attempt to come up with a quick sentence describing what's occurring in the photo. The line can be funny, stupid, witty, etc.

I'll be a judge but I like to have another collective voice determining the winner, that way there's a bit of a consensus among the community. What I prefer for everyone here to do is this .. if you like the caption a fellow member has come up with, "recommend" it. That will be 'your vote', in essence. If you don't know how to "recommend" a comment, go to the comment you like, click on 'actions', then click on 'rec'. You can "recommend" multiple captions/comments, if you want.

So for a quick recap ..

- Write a quick sentence describing what's occurring in the photo.

- If you like a caption/comment that's been written, "recommend" it.

- After you "recommend" a caption/comment, write something (like +1, for example) to indicate you like the sentence a 3QC member has written.

- The contest will last 24 hours, so whichever caption/comment gets the most recommendations, wins. In case of a tie, I'll determine the winner.

Let the contest begin!

Orlando Magic News for March 4th: Shaq Lashes Out At SVG, Courtney Lee Gets Dap, and More

erivera7 — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 16:51:01 PST

ESPN and Sports Illustrated (HT: Wmillion) recently revealed their respective Second Trimester awards. Among the winners, Dwight Howard (Defensive Player of the Year) and Stan Van Gundy (Coach of the Year).
Before he got showered with boos last night, former Magic and current Suns player Grant Hill spoke briefly with the Orlando Sentinel. Check it out.
Today, Shaq ripped his former coach, SVG, today for Van Gundy's comments concerning O'Neal flopping last night in Orlando's victory over the Phoenix Suns last night. Chris Sheridan of ESPN has the story. Among Shaq's quotes directed towards SVG:

"And one thing I really despise is a frontrunner, so I know for a fact that he's a master of panic, and when it gets time for his team to go in the postseason and do certain things, he will let them down because of his panic. I've been there before, I've played for him."

"Now I see why everybody who plays for him doesn't like him."

"I'm not going to just sit abound and let nobodies take shots at me, and he is a nobody to me. And if he thinks he can get in a little press conference and take shots at me like I'm not going to [give] something back, he's got another thing coming."
Jon Nichols of Basketball-Statistics announced his Most Valuable Third Team earlier today (these aren't the best players, just the individuals with the best value). On the squad? Orlando's rookie Courtney Lee.
If you've yet to catch my Value Rating % analysis for the Magic, click here to catch Part I and Part II. In Part I, I analyzed the reserves and in Part II, I analyzed the starters. Enjoy.

DSK's Night At The Wachovia Center, 02/28/09

DieSlowKeyshawn — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 15:29:00 PST

Here is this week's showcased fanpost. In this piece, DieSlowKeyshawn shares his experience watching the Orlando Magic play the Philadelphia Sixers in person this past Saturday. - ER

WOW. I still can't believe we won that game. I tried to comment last night after the game, but the iphone was giving me issues with my connection and I was more concerned on celebrating among heartbroken Philadelphians and getting my drink on.

Bad news first... I wasn't allowed to meet any players, get autographs, or pictures. The doors didn't open until 6pm and ushers wouldn't let people onto the floor who didn't have a floor ticket. I was in the 4th row (1st row off of the floor) so that news was disappointing, but I was able to get a couple players to acknowledge me during their lay up drills and a few refused to. As Dwight walked back in my direction I yelled, "DWIIIIIIIIIGHT!" to which he threw up a peace sign and got back in line. Rafer, was in ear-shot range three times to which I yelled a variety of "RAFER," "ALSTON," and "SKIP," no dice on any. J.J.'s turn and no surprise, cold shoulder. Even Anthony No-Neck Johnson refused to acknowledge polite greetings of "Anthony! or AJ!" The only other player who acknowledged my greeting was Turk, I shouted out "Hedo! Congrats on the baby!" to which he responded with a nod and thumbs up.

Onto the game...

I was on J.J. from the very beginning, I couldn't believe that SVG was riding with him for what seemed like 15 consecutive minutes. I was on him the entire night as he refused to play defense, I couldn't fathom why SVG was leaving him in the game with Lee & Pietrus well rested on the bench. The Philly fans were screaming "A.I. abuse him!" whenever he, for whatever reason, decided to ATTEMPT to play defense on Igoudala and I often responded with the palms to the face. When J.J. was ejected, the crowd was standing up cheering on, urging him to get out of the stadium, I was right there with them, yelling "GET OUT! GET OUT YOU BUM!" The Sixers fans in my area got a kick out of that, one turned around and said, "Looks like you got your wish," in regards to my frequent pleads to SVG to get "that scrub out of the game!"

After being DOMINATED for 36 minutes, we saw, what I believe was the most improbable and most thrilling comeback victory the Magic have had all year. Of course, I may be a bit bias being 20 feet away from the action, but nonetheless, I couldn't believe what I was seeing. I can't tell you how many sixers fans in my area left to go home with 10 minutes OR MORE remaining. Boy, did they miss a hell of a finish, but for their sakes, it probably worked out for them. I was sitting next to a father and son (son Magic fan, father Sixers) well, with the Magic up 1 with 22 seconds left and Hedo going to the line to shoot 2 free throws, the Father gets up and makes his son leave to his sons' dismay. I wanted to say ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!?!? Hedo could have nailed both, Sixers could have hit a three and it's tied! In no way was it over! Anyway, I was shocked at the role AJ played in the comeback. I saw you guys posted his stats last night, so I won't get into that, I just remember saying, "NO! Don't shoot it!" whenever he raised up for a jumper, yet later in the night when he hit that three in the last 2 minutes to put the Magic up 4, I think I might have uttered, "I love you AJ" under my breath.

After Turk sealed the deal, I stayed in the arena for about ten minutes, in amazement of what I had just witnessed. I also shook hands with some sixers fans in my area, shared some small talk and I expressed my sympathies, before walking up the stairs thinking and saying to my friend, "I can't believe what just happened, I can't believe anything about what just happened."

A link to my photo gallery is below, half the pictures taken from the iphone camera (no zoom) and the other half from a crappy point and shoot, check them out nontheless.

PICS HERE

Value Rating % Analysis: Orlando Magic Part II

erivera7 — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 08:00:11 PST

Recently, Jon Nichols of Basketball-Statistics created a new advanced statistical metric called Value Rating %, which measures the relative value of a player's performance based on his Composite Score and salary. Nichols rates each player with a percentile-based ranking. The higher the percentage, the better. The purpose of this system is fairly simple - to determine which players are under or over valued based on their contract. It's best use, as was stated to me, is when comparing players with similar level contracts (second round picks vs. minimum veterans, mid-level exception guys vs. top rookies, etc). That's something to keep in mind.

Given what has been stated, I wanted to take a look at how each Orlando Magic player rated. For Part II (the final segment) of this mini-series, I analyzed the starters.

Ed. note: These numbers are as of Feb. 21st. - ER

Dwight Howard: 63.98% ($13,758,000)

- Howard's VR % may seem low, and it is. However, it's important to note that the way this particular statistic works, it's almost impossible for a player like Howard to have a high VR % (given his salary). It's worth pointing out that Wade, who has a similar contract to Howard, has a VR % of 59.8%. In any case, Dwight is an extremely valuable asset to the Magic. When you compare Superman's salary to players around the NBA, you'll quickly realize that Howard is a bit of a bargain for Orlando, when you consider the numbers he puts up at his price. Credit GM Otis Smith for locking up, judiciously, an individual who's a top five player, an annual Defensive Player of the Year and MVP candidate, and a superhero. That's definitely getting bang for your buck.

Courtney Lee: 95.49% ($1,176,240)

- For once, the Magic were able to "hit" on a draft pick and so far, the early returns on Lee have been good. Courtney hasn't been stuffing the stat sheet, so to speak, but he's certainly making his presence felt on the court. The rookie has been every bit the player Orlando envisioned him of being, and more. Lee has been able to step in and start for a championship-caliber team with almost no problems. Because of that, don't expect Courtney to relinquish his role any time soon. People may be seeing Lee as the starting two-guard for years to come. All in all, Lee offers up the best value on the team when you take into account his modest production at a cheap price.

Rashard Lewis: 47.9% ($16,447,871)

- It's no surprise that Lewis is overpaid. The provided statistic simply cements that fact. However, it's interesting to clue in on how much Rashard is overpaid. Given the percentage, it's evident that Lewis is earning slightly more money than he should be netting. I only say slightly because one needs to take into account the small discrepancy created when factoring high salaries into the equation. Also, it isn't like Rashard is a complete bum either. He's an underrated player (9th in adjusted plus/minus this season; though, that stat is a bit inflated) and a two-time All-Star. There are plenty of bad contracts out there for players who are worse than Lewis. Is Rashard deserving of eight figures? Yes, but he's more a $10-11 Mill. type of guy.

Jameer Nelson: 79.42% ($7,700,000)

- Many critics questioned GM Otis Smith granting Nelson such a "generous" extension last season (especially after the Lewis signing), when it appeared as though Jameer didn't deserve it. Well, it looks like Otis may have the last laugh (for now) because Nelson's contract looks like a bargain at this point, given the numbers Jameer was putting up this season. As long as Nelson can continue his high level of play next year, then Smith should be applauded for making a Spurs-like move (locking an All-Star caliber player at an affordable price). The talk may not be that Jameer is overpaid. The talk may soon be that Jameer is underpaid.

Hedo Turkoglu: 75.24% ($6,864,200)

- Before his breakout season last year, it appeared as though Hedo also sported a contract he may not have deserved. However, fast-forward to now, and there's no doubt that Hedo could be considered one of THE most underpaid player in the NBA when you take into account his intangibles and statistical production. The question soon will be, how much will Turkoglu net beginning next year? Hedo has stated that he's looking at earning $10 Mill. per year, however, given the state of the economy and free agency this off-season, he may not see that kind of money (nor should he, to be honest). In any case, for now, Turkoglu offers up excellent value.

Orlando Magic 111, Phoenix Suns 99

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 22:04:12 PST

Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard tries to front Phoenix Suns center Shaquille O'Neal in Orlando's 111-99 victory

Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

The Orlando Magic rallied late in the fourth quarter to defeat the Phoenix Suns, 111-99, in an exciting, back-and-forth affair. Rashard Lewis had one of his finest games since joining the Magic last season, leading Orlando with 29 points and 12 rebounds, his fourth double-double in one-plus seasons with Orlando. Jason Richardson lit up Orlando for the second time this season, scoring 27 points on 11-of-20 shooting to lead the visitors. It was a sloppy game, with the teams combining for 45 turnovers, and six players finishing with at least four.

Team	Pace	Efficiency	eFG%	FT Rate	OReb%	TO Rate
Suns	102	97.1	48.3%	13.3	28.9	20.6
Magic	102	108.3	51.9%	38.5	28.6	23.4

The much-balleyhooed showdown between Shaquille O'Neal and Dwight Howard got off to a slow start, but did not disappoint. O'Neal finished with 19 points and 11 rebounds, while Howard had 21 points and 8 rebounds. One of the game's highlights--from a Magic fan's point of view, anyway--came about midway through the third quarter, when Howard posted O'Neal on the left block and took an immediate hard dribble into the lane. O'Neal flopped on the play, hoping for an official to bail him out, but the whistle never came. Howard quickly spun to the outside, elevated, and dunked emphatically with two hands. The Amway Arena crowd--an A+ effort from it, by the way--erupted.

O'Neal got the best of Dwight a few times, though. He blocked Dwight's first shot attempt, and a bit later in the first half plowed Howard out of the lane and dunked as Howard stood helplessly under the hoop. Ultimately, this matchup's hype may have cost the Suns the game. With Orlando leading by 2 and 3:38 to play, Howard got past O'Neal and looked to be on his way for an easy bucket. Shaq muscled him hard, and was whistled for the foul. He earned a technical foul for arguing the call; does anyone believe that Shaq would have been so peeved in a similar situation against any other center in the league? All told, the technical free throw, and Howard's two makes on the shooting foul, gave the Magic a 5-point lead. The Suns' offense stagnated on the ensuing possession, which ended when Courtney Lee came from the weak side to swat Leandro Barbosa as he attempted a layup. Rashard Lewis canned a three-pointer in transition to give the Magic a 101-93 lead with 2:54 remaining.

It may seem silly to praise the Magic in a game in which they only made one-third of their three-point attempts and turned the ball over 24 times, but there's actually a lot to like. First and foremost, the Magic rallied to beat a playoff-caliber team, at home, by ratcheting up the defense. As Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic notes in his game recap, Phoenix missed eight shots over a six-minute span in the fourth quarter. That's not flukey. The Magic ground the Suns' offense to a halt by taking away open jumpers and getting back in transition.

Another thing: the Magic essentially beat the Suns at their own game, as they had no answer for Lewis. Some people mock the Magic's lack of toughness on the front line, as Lewis is a 6'10" small forward being forced to play power forward. Well, with Amar'e Stoudemire recovering from eye surgery, the Suns are playing the 6'07" Grant Hill at the four-spot; two years ago, Hill was the Magic's starting shooting guard. A game without clearly-defined positions is appealing for the liberated fan, but miserable for, say, Suns fans, who got to watch Lewis light up Hill tonight.

Rafer Alston had a marvelous game. I don't mind that he missed two-thirds of his shots and committed four turnovers, because he did a lot of other things well. When the Magic's shots weren't falling in the first half, Rafer consistently drove to the basket, drew contact, and made his free throws. Suns point guard Steve Nash was playing in his first game in a week as he recovered from a sore ankle. Alston made the future Hall-of-Famer work defensively. As a bonus, he hounded Nash into 7 turnovers. Obviously, not all of them were a direct result of Rafer's defense, but he was active tonight. Additionally--and here's what I really like--he's showing some leadership on the floor. After his lone made three-pointer tonight, for instance, Alston didn't preen or smile or any of that nonsense. He immediately looked to pick up Nash on the inbounds, barking defensive assignments to his teammates at the same time.

I also can't say enough about the job Marcin Gortat did tonight. With Howard in first-half foul trouble, the Polish Hammer came in and immediately made an impact, with 8 points and 7 rebounds in the half. He gave Shaq about all he could handle defensively, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the Magic cannot risk losing Gortat in free agency this summer. They'll have the right to match any offer another team makes, as he will be a restricted free-agent, and I hope nobody else catches on to how brilliant Gortat is as a backup center. The Magic will be worse off if Gortat leaves this summer, as they'd have to give his minutes to Tony Battie, who received only his ~~4th~~ 3rd DNP-CD of the season tonight, incidentally. We generally like Tony around these parts, but Marcin Gortat he is not.

Schadenfreude watch: although O'Neal had a good game, Hill did not, and the Amway Arena crowd ate it up. Hill went 3-of-11 from the field for 6 points, and 2 of his misses were wide-open layups. That's in addition to Rashard's abusing him defensively, by the way. I don't hold much of a grudge against Hill, but nonetheless it seemed relevant to some readers' interests.

My final thought is that Stan Van Gundy needs to plant Mickael Pietrus firmly on the bench. Injuries have derailed Mickael's season, and he's hardly a shadow of the player Orlando thought it was getting when it used its entire mid-level exception on him last summer. In 20 minutes tonight, Pietrus managed 2 points, 2 rebounds, and 1 admittedly impressive rejection of Hill. He shot 1-of-6 from the field, with all of his misses coming on wide-open looks from three-point range. His defense isn't there. The offense isn't there. Lee and J.J. Redick can platoon the two-guard position and be just as effective, although Pietrus is useful in that he can play small forward for some spells, giving Turkoglu a rest.

Of Orlando's 8 wins since losing Jameer Nelson for the season, tonight's was the most impressive. Coming back to defeat the 76ers on the road was pleasantly surprising, but the Magic played horribly for much of that game. The wire-to-wire undressing of Miami was nice, too. But Phoenix is a better team, and the game was actually competitive. In spite of everything, tonight was a great win for the home team.

Tonight's Game: Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 16:17:43 PST

Per the Orlando Sentinel, please note that tonight's Orlando Magic / Phoenix Suns game will be broadcast on Sun Sports; it was originally scheduled to air on FSN Florida.

2008/2009 NBA Regular Season
	@
34-25		43-16
March 3rd, 2009
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports / NBA TV
Probable starters:
Steve Nash	PG	Rafer Alston
Leandro Barbosa	SG	Courtney Lee
Jason Richardson	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Grant Hill	PF	Rashard Lewis
Shaquille O'Neal	C	Dwight Howard
Previous Meetings:
December 12th: Suns 113, Magic 112

Ed. note - My colleague erivera7 did a pregame podcast with Phoenix Stan, of Bright Side of the Sun, SB Nation's Suns blog. Give it a listen, won't you? - BQR

Former Orlando Magic center Shaquille O'Neal is a man of the people. He aspires to work in law-enforcement after his basketball-playing days are over, and he's connected with hundreds of thousands of fans via his Twitter.

However, it appears as though Shaq is not a man of Dwight Howard, the Magic's current All-Star center. Howard says O'Neal is one of the few legends who has never offered him advice, and that he has treated him coldly throughout his career. While it's true that O'Neal is by no means obligated to share what he knows with Dwight, it does seem strange that he's treated him with hostility, even contempt, saying the following in an interview with The Sporting News

Every street he is driving down in Orlando, I have been on that street. Every night club, every restaurant, I have been there and done that. Until he wins three, four championships, then we can talk about him. But right now, he is just like every other big guy. You can run and jump, but you haven't won yet.

Shaq defies conventional analysis, not that I'm a qualified clinician anyway, but one nonetheless gets the impression he's jealous that Howard has leapfrogged him in the hearts and minds of most NBA observers, not to mention Magic fans. The fact that Howard has also appropriated Shaq's "Superman" moniker must also irk him. Is he worried about fading from memory? He insists he can continue to post gaudy 30-point, 10-rebound games until he retires. I think it's a case of a prideful man protesting too much, as it were. It sounds like I'm railing on Shaq here, but the truth is, I love him. He's great for the game of basketball. All I'm saying is that I hope he gets humiliated tonight.

When Shaq's comments were posted on this site yesterday, some readers were irritated with the passivity with which Howard responded to them:

That's just how I feel. I don't know if he was taking shots or what he was doing, but that's fine with me. He's Shaq and there's nothing I can do about it.

Maybe we'll see a mean streak in Dwight tonight. Need I remind you that Howard's remarkable 45-point, 19-rebound, 8-block effort against the Bobcats two weeks ago was largely due to his anger with himself for a miserable performance (4 points, 7 rebounds, 6 fouls) in an earlier meeting with them? Shaq's dis, coupled with Howard's offensive and defensive struggles against the Diesel throughout his career (for instance, Shaq has made nearly twice as many field goals as Dwight in their head-to-head meetings, despite playing fewer minutes, while shooting a higher percentage from the field) could be enough motivation to fuel another monster performance by Orlando's newest franchise center.

When accounting for the clash of the titans, the exciting finish in the first meeting between these teams this season, the animosity the Orlando crowd will have for O'Neal and Grant Hill... it's going to be one whale of a game. Don't miss it. Tip's at 7. Go Magic

The Magic ARE Orlando sports. We don’t have a baseball team. We don’t have an NFL team. We don’t hav...

erivera7 — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:45:39 PST

The Magic ARE Orlando sports. We don’t have a baseball team. We don’t have an NFL team. We don’t have a major conference college team. My whole life I’ve loved going to the Arena and cheering on my team whether it was Shaq and Penny or Dwight and Jameer. Since the Magic are all we have, I think the fans show more love at the games. There’s always a real sense of fan pride at the Arena.

3QC member Bliz comes away the "winner" of my mini-contest for ESPN the Magazine with his or her comment. I like to thank everyone for taking the time to write a thought. There were several that I liked, but I had to choose one.

Public Service Announcement

erivera7 — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:49:55 PST

I wanted to bring to attention a nifty and useful application I've linked to for Third Quarter Collapse (a link will appear in the left-hand corner of the site). A few days ago, I came across a fantastic reference for all team payroll, league salary cap, and luxury tax information. Included as well are cap projections, future picks and trade exceptions. Think the HoopsHype salaries page, but better.

The page was developed by Wyn over at Canis Hoopus. When transactions are made, the data is updated. Needless to say, if you need a quick reference to the Orlando Magic (or any team in the NBA) with regards to draft or salary information, I highly suggest checking out Wyn's handiwork. It's the one-stop shop and ultimate tool for NBA draft pick & salary information.

Take a look.

UPDATE: Everyone has less than an hour & a half to go, with regards to posting a comment that may potentially be used in ESPN the Magazine. I plan on sending off an e-mail soon with my thoughts but I'd like to snag one comment from the 3QC community. If you've yet to post, make yourself heard. Thanks!

Don't expect the Magic to go beyond the trade that brought in point guard Rafer Alston --- even...

Ben Q Rock — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:34:20 PST

Don't expect the Magic to go beyond the trade that brought in point guard Rafer Alston --- even with some intriguing bought-out big men now on the market.

"I like our team," Magic General Manager Otis Smith said.

[....]

Smith said if he had any interest in signing one free agent, it would be [Drew] Gooden, a former Magic player.

Brian Schmitz reports the Orlando Magic will not make a move to sign Joe Smith, Drew Gooden, Adonal Foyle, Luther Head, or any of the other recently-waived veterans.

Orlando Magic News for March 2nd: Don't Expect The Magic To Sign Drew Gooden, Dwight Howard Responds to Shaquille O'Neal, and More

erivera7 — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 17:28:16 PST

As I've echoed around here for the past few days, don't expect the Orlando Magic to make a play for free agent Drew Gooden. John Hollinger from ESPN.com explains why:

Orlando is a possibility given its paucity of frontcourt reserves and Gooden's previous history there, but I'm not sure how seriously people take the Magic's chances of contending since Jameer Nelson went out. At any rate, the Magic have used their midlevel and biannual exceptions this summer so they can offer him only the veteran's minimum.
It seems that Dwight Howard isn't taking too well to the criticism that has been blasted his way by former Orlando center, Shaquille O'Neal. John Denton has the particulars.
Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy praises forward's Rashard Lewis & Hedo Turkoglu for their play during Orlando's win versus the Philadelphia 76er's on Saturday.
If you have time, make your voice heard for ESPN. Both Ben and I have been approached to provide our thoughts on the Orlando Magic this season in the Mag's "Ultimate Standings", a ranking system determining the best & worst franchises in sports. I'd like to snag ONE comment from someone in the 3QC community. Make it good, please? UPDATE: Comments are due by 6:00 EST tomorrow, March 3rd. Thanks.
Be on the lookout for Part II of my analysis concerning the Value Rating % of each Orlando player. On Wednesday, I'll unveil the starters. Here's Part I, in which I covered the reserves today.

ESPN Wants To Hear From You!

erivera7 — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 15:00:11 PST

Every year, ESPN the Magazine has a section called the “Ultimate Standings,” where fans break down the best and worse franchises in sports, based on various categories and data.

Both Ben and I have been approached by ESPN to provide our thoughts on the Orlando Magic, a franchise that has jumped into the Top 10 [!!] this year in the rankings (Orlando ranked #42 last year).

Since I’m a nice guy, I’m willing to include ONE brief comment from the 3QC community, in which that person’s take will be included in the analysis alongside the opinions of Ben and myself.

Basically, ESPN wants to know why Magic fans love the players, coaching, affordability, and fan relations, yet hate the stadium experience (Amway Arena).

Provide your thoughts and I’ll pick the best take on the matter. Thanks!

Ed note: I better see a ton of comments. They can be cool, funny, interesting, etc.

UPDATE: Comments are due by 6:00 EST tomorrow, March 3rd.

Value Rating % Analysis: Orlando Magic Part I

erivera7 — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 08:00:11 PST

Given what has been stated, I wanted to take a look at how each Orlando Magic player rated. For Part I of this mini-series, I analyzed the reserves.

Ed. note: These numbers are as of Feb. 21st. Also, Marcin Gortat's numbers weren't available for analysis. - ER

Rafer Alston: 26.36% ($4,900,000)

- I know that Skip isn't a reserve, per se, but he is for the purposes of this analysis. It's evident, by looking at the percentage, that Alston is a bit overpaid in correlation to his production on the court this year. At this point in his career, Rafer is a fringe-starter at best and thus, shouldn't be netting the type of money he's seeing right now. Explains a bit why the Houston Rockets were willing to let him go via trade.

Tony Battie: 15.75% ($5,746,000)

- Among the Magic players listed, Battie carries the un-distinct honor of being the worst valued player on the team. The type of contract Tony is netting right now usually is reserved for an average starter in the NBA, yet Battie is nothing more than a reserve. Tony has been decent this season, but his current production is not worth it at his price tag.

Anthony Johnson: 73.71% ($1,910,000)

- Sporting a modest salary, it's safe to state that Orlando offered a reasonable contract to Johnson this past off-season. Despite receiving constant criticism from Magic fans, A.J.'s performance this year indicates that he's offered up fair value for his price. Make no mistake, Johnson is nothing more than a bench player. But his production on the court falls in line, for the most part, with the money he's netting.

Tyronn Lue: 85.85% ($2,250,000)

- Lue, despite not earning any minutes right now with Orlando, is netting a contract comparable to his value as a player. For his career, Tyronn has always been a solid reserve and thus his money earned this year reflects that trend. Granted, even though Lue isn't sporting a "bad" contract, per se, he's been relatively useless since being traded to the Magic. Ty is gone after this season (expiring contract), so the problem will be a moot point in a few months.

Mickael Pietrus: 73.71% ($5,300,000)

- It's no secret that M.P. has been having problems all season staying on the court, but when Pietrus has been playing, he's been okay. After starting the season strong, Mickael has cooled off considerably since then. Orlando received criticism this past off-season for offering its entire Mid-Level Exception to Pietrus, and it's safe to say the critics are half-right. The fact Pietrus has been hurt many times this year lends credence to the argument at hand. However, Mickael can be productive (when healthy). I'm aware that Pietrus' Value Rating % is too high. As I noted beforehand, the statistics provided are a week and a half old, so an update of the numbers would see a considerable dip in Mickael's percentage.

J.J. Redick: 76.52% ($2,139,720)

- Redick is definitely a spot reserve at best, but the former Duke prodigy has his moments on the court (see Feb. 17th vs. Charlotte). Even though J.J. should be used on a matchup-type basis, he's a useful player. As such, Redick has provided the Magic decent production at his price. Besides, shooters like J.J. always have a place in the NBA,

Part II will be revealed on Wednesday, in which I'll take a look at the starters.