Alpha

The $200k Grade 3 Withers Stakes is back in business after missing 2011. The 8 ½ furlong race is a key New York prep for the Kentucky Derby. The next two races of note in the Empire State are the $400k Grade 3 Gotham Stakes and the $1 million Wood Memorial. The Withers is race 9 on Saturday at Aqueduct.

Alpha (Bernardini x Munnaya by Nijinsky II) really sticks out in this field seven. The colt looked tremendous while winning the Count Fleet Stakes over this track last out. He did so despite bobbling at the break and racing three wide. He figures to sit a nice trip behind the speed before pouncing under Ramon Dominguez for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.

It’s tough to make money on a horse like Alpha. I’m not the greatest in the world at guessing post time odds, but he will certainly be favored. Probably somewhere between 4-5 and 6-5. We can try to improve the value by playing an exacta. Tiger Walk (Tale of the Cat x Majestic Trail by Kris S.) stands a strong chance of finishing second at what projects to be a decent price. He enters this race after winning two in a row at Laurel. Those races were against much lesser foes, but he won them impressively.

I’m really looking forward to seeing how Alpha performs here for his Godolphin connections. He’s still a tad bit under the radar and isn’t considered to be among the top three or four Kentucky Derby contenders by very many people. That could change with a big effort in the Withers and I certainly expect to see him do something big here.

Who are your picks for the Withers Stakes? Leave a comment and share your thoughts. Also, consider playing this race at TVG where new players get a $100 sign up bonus.

Inquiry at Fair Grounds

I’ve been known to bet a first time starter on occasions when I’m simply underwhelmed by the horses in a maiden race that have already made their debut. Just such an occasion arose on December 23 at Fair Grounds.  The favorite, Big Chief Deke, wasn’t much at all and was catching most of his money based on the name of his trainer; Bret Calhoun.

I decided to go with a first time starter from the barn of Wesley Hawley named Look At The Time. He’s a decent enough debut trainer and his main man Miguel Mena was in the irons. The price was far too great to pass up at 24-1. I bet $12 to win, place and show.

Turning for home, Mena made a move between horses after sitting  behind the pacesetters most of the way. He bumped the favorite, who checked just slightly before failing to mount any sort of bid while finishing a well beaten fourth. In other words, he was not going to win regardless of whether or not the bump occurred.

Look At The Time drew away to win by a little over 4 lengths. I reached over and gave my dad a high five and just moment later the last thing a horse player wants to see stung my eyes.

The inquiry sign lit up and my horse was taken down. Click here to watch the race.

Clearly, this was upsetting to have my horse cross the finish line first at large odds only to lose my money due to a largely ambiguous decision by the stewards.

This got me thinking how crazy it is that thoroughbred horse racing, our sport, does not have uniform and clear cut rules throughout the country.

I’ve spoken to several prominent members of the horse racing industry to get their thoughts on the lack of set rules.

Bob Baedeker is a prominent handicapper, former TVG analyst, and author of Baedeker’s Guide to Thoroughbred Handicapping.

“My philosophy is that first and foremost the stewards obligation is to ensure that the race riding is safe and that the jockeys are protected. The next in my mind is that the players are protected.” said Baedeker.

“My general feeling is that if you bet a horse and he crosses the finish line first you should be paid 99% of the time. I believe that the best horse usually wins races barring traffic and other dramatic incidents. Knowing this, to penalize the owners and all the people involved, including the bettors, a foul has to be really flagrant.” Baedeker added.

“Inquiries are too long. They lack consistency and uniformity. Pass interference in football is tough, but it is pretty consistently applied. Referees might blow a few calls, but it’s pretty consistent. One of horse racing’s problems is it is so inconsistent. Different stewards and philosophies around the country. No real cut and dry rules to apply to the conduct of racing. It’s a very helter-skelter approach. This creates a negative impact and lack of confidence in horse players.” Baedeker said.

“Stewards must have good relationships with jockeys. Make rules known and apply them consistently and fairly. It’s not rocket science. Look at countries like France and Japan where the rules are so rigid and enforced fairly. They have respect of riders and are dramatic in terms of fines and penalties. Separation is important. Dont go out of your way to intimidate other riders.” Baedeker said.

Baedeker, known for his frustration with this issue, makes many good points. Horse bettors are the lifeblood of racing, pushing many millions of dollars through the windows each day. Remove them from the equation and everything else disappears.

I couldn’t agree more that for a change in the order of a finish to occur, a foul should have to be pretty flagrant. Reasonable people often disagree about inquires. I can’t begin to describe how frustrating it is to lose money over a decision that ambiguously could have gone either way.

The fact that different philosophies govern the conduct of horse racing can be maddening. While you practically have to knock a jockey off his mount at some places, at others if you bump ever so slightly, you could be coming down. This is creates a great amount of uncertainty and can prevent horse bettors from risking their hard earned money.

Conventional wisdom tells us that the longer the inquiry sign stays up, the greater the odds are of a change being made. This should be a non-factor. As Baedeker has opined, these decisions are quickly made and done so accurately in other sports. Why not in horse racing?

Scott Chaney is a steward at Santa Anita that has presided over events like the Breeders’ Cup. He was involved in a controversial decision over last year’s Santa Anita Handicap. You can see him talking about that here.

“Horse racing rules vary from state to state. There are a garden variety of things that could cause a disqualification, such as bumping, cutting another horse off, or hitting another horse with a whip.” Chaney noted.

“In California, we decide if interference occurred and then we decide if it cost the horse in question a better placing. If it did, then that horse that fouled him is coming down.” Chaney said.

“We view our role as managing the jockey colony. We will call riders in the next day and review races with them. Hearings will result in suspensions or we will just tell them what we didnt like. We have a hearing with riders every meet where we go over expectations for on the track behavior and race riding, among other things.” Chaney said.

It makes sense to disqualify a horse for cutting an opponent off. The same can be said for some bumping situations, and definitely for hitting another horse with a whip.

The Californian rule of determining if a foul cost a horse a better placing could be better. Often times, this isn’t a black and white issue and is subjective to the opinion of a steward. A horse could just be tired and fade regardless of a bump. This rule isn’t the same in every state and is a great example of why we need national uniformity. Bettors shouldn’t have to remember rules based on the jurisdication that they are playing.

I love that Chaney and his colleagues have frequent visit to see the jockeys and that they let the riders know their expectations. I hope this goes on in most places. In fact, it should be a required.

Ken McPeek has trained thoroughbred race horses for about 27 years. He is noted for winning the Belmont Stakes in 2002 with Sarava. More recently, he was the leading trainer at Keeneland’s fall 20011 meet.

“Anytime contact is made the rule says that the horse should come down. I had a horse come down at Kentucky Downs for the smallest of infractions, the horses just barely touched, and if they are gonna hold that standard they need to be consistent.” McPeek said.

“I think it’s ridiculous I’ve been training going on 27 years that we dont have some semblance of uniform rules. Can you imagine if Major League Baseball had different rules in every state? If it was 127 feet to 1st base in Ohio, but 130 feet in New York? It doesn’t make sense.” McPeek said.

They need to standardize distances at racetracks. Standardize rules from top to bottom. It’s hard on horse trainers when the rules are different everywhere as we run on different circuits. It can be confusing.” McPeek said.

McPeek touched on the point of ambiguity, as did Bob Baedeker did before him. This is frustrating for trainers as well as horse players. In 2012 there is absolutely no excuse for this. The failure of the powers that be to come together is inexcusable.

In the era of cable television and high speed internet, gamblers have other options. They can bet on the NFL, go to the casino, or play the lottery. At least if they do this, they will know the rules. If thoroughbred horse racing is to be taken seriously by all, the issues of its rules must be addressed immediately.

The rules of horse racing are archaic. It’s time to bring our sport into the 21st century.

Apriority is favored to win the SSM Sprint

The Sunshine Millions Sprint (Gulfstream Park|Race 7|Saturday) is a very productive race. Last year’s winner, Amazombie, went on take the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Other notable winners include Benny The Bull, Smokey Stover and Bordonaro. It should be noted that this year’s running is restricted to Florida-bred horses.

Royal Currier (Red Bullet x Top of the League by Lite The Fuse) rates a very strong chance in this six furlong sprint. He exits the $75k Valley Forge Stakes at Parx, where he raced four wide to easily dismiss two top horses in JJ’s Lucky Train and Poseidon’s Warrior. His figures are the best in the race and he’s working strongly. This gelding should break to the lead and take them as far as he can. I think he takes them all the way; he’s my top pick. Ramon Dominguez rides for Patricia Farro.

The main threat to my selection is the favorite, Apriority (Grand Slam x Midway Squall by Storm Bird). He produced a tremendous run to win the Grade 3 Mr Prospector last out over this course, despite a bad stumble at the start. He really loves this track and jockey Luis Saez fits him like a glove. The David Fawkes trained colt looks ready to run a big one. I’m going to hope he can’t get past Royal Currier in the stretch.

Cajun Breeze (Congrats x Cajun Dawn by Awesome Again) is an interesting option. He races third off the shelf here after breaking maiden last out over this course. It was a very easy win for the Michael Yates trained closer and the past performances say he was ridden out. There is value with him at 10-1. Juan Leyva will be in the irons.

I really like Royal Currier’s chances to win the Sunshine Millions Sprint at 6-1. You can bet him at TVG where new players get a $100 sign up bonus.

Hansen

The $400k Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream Park/Race 10/Sunday) is the first of three of Kentucky Derby prep races at Gulfstream Park. The others are the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Last year’s winner, Dialed In, would go on to win the Florida Derby before failing as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. In 2005, Barbaro won this race before capturing the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby.

Silver Max (Badge of Silver x Kissin Rene by Kissin Kris) $20k yearling purchase broke his maiden last out on the grass after five consecutive second place finishes. The Dale Romans trainee will have Julien Leparoux in the irons. That’s the only redeeming thing I can see about him.

Consortium (Bernardini x Marietta by Machiavellian) Godolphin owned colt was an impressive first out winner at Aqueduct before yielding to his rival, Algorithms, in his second trip to the track. He will get a little extra ground here, but that shouldn’t hurt him too much as this is still a one turn race. First time lasix is an interesting factor. Trainer Kiaran Mclaughlin, wins 26% of the time with the addition of the medication. It wouldn’t be shocking or surprising to see him win, but I’m going to vote against it. John Velazquez will ride.

My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect x Silent Justice by Elusive Quality) Took the $200k Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs as the 1-5 favorite before finishing 27 lengths behind Sabercat to be ninth in the Delta Jackpot. He has worked like a monster for trainer Kelly Breen since that defeat, but I don’t see enough to make me think he can win in this spot. Count him as a pace factor and nothing more.

Hansen (Tapit x Stormy Sunday by Sir Cat) This is the big shot, the top sophomore in America. He’s the favorite (in my mind) to win the Kentucky Derby by virtue of his win last out victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Undefeated in three starts, he’s got killer early speed. The connections might try to rate him here. If they ever plan to do so, this would be the time. If this were a normal race I would love Hansen, but it’s not. It’s a Kentucky Derby prep race. There’s more to it than what you can see on paper. Even considering that, I like him to win; and impressively too. Ramon Dominguez will ride for trainer Michael Maker.

Fort Loudon (Awesome of Course x Lottsa Talc by Talc) He’s better than he looked last out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished seventh after a wide trip. Before that, he won four races in a row, including three Florida bred stakes races. He won them all with ease. I don’t think he can compete for the win, but he’s a stellar colt that might improve with time.

Algorithms (Bernardini x Ava Knowsthecode by Cryptoclearance) Regally bred colt has people talking after his win over Consortium. That win came after a six month rest for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey JJ Castellano. I love his tremendous late punch which he exhibits despite laying near the pace. Read more about him here.

From a betting standpoint, this is a tricky race.  Hansen should demolish them, but what should happen doesn’t always occur. Still, I think there is more than enough there for him to get it done.  I’ll make him my top selection to win the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. If an upset happens, look to Fort Loudon or Algorithms. You can bet both the Holy Bull Stakes at TVG where new players get a $100 sign up bonus.

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Mucho Macho Man

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Last year we saw Tackleberry spring a 27-1 upset in the Sunshine Millions Classic. This year, with a short field of just seven competitors, we aren’t likely to see a bomb of that magnitude. That doesn’t mean value has vanished though.

Duke of Mischief (Graeme Hall x My Lady Amelia by Real Courage) has spotty recent form, but he’s got the best back class in the race. One of the best handicap horses of 2011, he won the $1 million Charles Town Classic over a very salty group in April. He’s had a rough time since then, but the work tab indicates he’s ready to fire a big shot. Specifically, I really like the :48 B 1/75 four furlong move at Calder. Don’t count the David Fawkes horse out. Joe Bravo will ride.

Adios Charlie (Indian Charlie x Teak Totem by Northern Afleet) should catch plenty of action and I’m glad for that; he’s a play against. This colt wants no part of nine furlongs against a horse like Duke of Mischief  or Mucho Macho Man. The average winning distance of his sire and broodmare sire is 6.6 furlongs. He will be over bet and should be avoided until he turns back to a one turn mile.

Todd Pletcher’s Turbo Compressor (Halo’s Image x Dixieland Event by Wild Event) will be ridden by his main man, John Velazquez. He drew away by 10 ½ lengths last out in a $150k Florida-bred race. He did so after making an easy lead. That wont happen in this race and it severely decreases his chances. Toss him at a short price.

Kathy Ritvo’s Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno x Ponche de Leona by Ponche) is an interesting horse. He scorched a decent group quite easily last out at Aqueduct all the way back at the beginning of November. I’m not quite sure he wants to go this far, but I like his chances of doing so more than Adios Charlie. He’s the main threat to my choice.

Ron The Greek (Full Mandate x Flambe’ by Fortunate Prospect) should have his fair share of support after winning back to back overnight stakes for Bill Mott. He has changed his running style and is now closer to the pace early on. I’m not sure that he beat much in his last two races and this is a big step up in class. I can’t like him in this spot.

My top pick to win the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic is Duke of Mischief. He’s the classiest horse in the race and if the works are any indication, he is ready for a big time run. Mucho Macho man also deserves consideration based on the strength of his last race.

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Team Valor International

In 2011 Team Valor International privately purchased a three-year-old filly named Summer Soiree that would go on to win three graded stakes races, capped by the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks.

Table Three Ten could turn into the 2012 version of Summer Soiree for her Kentucky Derby winning connections. The daughter of El Prado won her debut going six furlongs at Fair Grounds by 5 ¼ lengths. She was geared down near the end. Team Valor quickly took notice and added her to their impressive roster. She’s put in three solid works for trainer Graham Motion since her big win. Now, she will take on first level optional claiming company at Gulfstream Park in race 6 on Friday. John Velazquez is listed to ride.

She looks to have her six foes over a barrel.

Her two best competitors are Polish Tune and Xunlei. The former is a first out maiden breaker for Todd Pletcher, hailing from from Calder Racecourse. The latter broke her maiden two back at Saratoga and has since finished third in an optional claiming race.

If Table Three Ten brings her maiden race she ought to thrash this group. I asked Graham Motion what he though on Twitter. Here is what he had to say. Admittedly, I didn’t get much from him.

GrahamMotion @GrahamMotion @gradedstakes will tell you more after Friday! She certainly was impressive first time out.

Bettors arent likely to get a very good price on Table Three Ten. If she were somehow to go off around 2-1, I’d consider it a slam dunk. Even money is more likely though. Regardless of whether or you have a bet down, she’s worth watching anyway. This could be the next big star in the three-year-old filly division.

Big Brown

It doesn’t get much better than Big Brown (Boundary x Mien by Nureyev) when it comes to race record. Purchased at the Keeneland April 2007 sale for $190k, he went on to win his debut on the weeds at Saratoga by 11 ¼ lengths. He wouldn’t race again until March when a stroke of luck saw his allowance race washed off the turf. He ran off to win over a fast track by 12 ¾ lengths.

It was after the allowance win that most of us suspected Big Brown could be a great horse. We knew he was a great horse when he took the Grade 1 Florida Derby (111 BRISnet figure) in his next start and the Kentucky Derby (110 BRISnet figure) after that. He romped home by 5 ¼ lengths in the Preakness Stakes and looked well on the way to winning the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.

Then the seemingly impossible happened. Big Brown, rank and incorrigible, finished a distanced dead last. This would be the first and only defeat of his eight race career.

Big Brown would race two more times. He won the Haskell Invitational (110 BRISnet figure) and the newly created $500k Monmouth Stakes (98 BRISnet figure) against older horses on the grass.

Big Brown is a son of Boundary who is a son of the great stallion Danzig. Boundary wasn’t particularly good or bad at stud, but did produce two top horses other than Big Brown in Grade 1 winners Minardi and Pomeroy.

His first dam, Mien, is a lightly raced and unaccomplished daughter of top stallion Nureyev. Despite fertility problems, Nureyev was able to produce nine champions, among them Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Theatrical.

The second dam, Miasma, won two races from 19 starts. She is by Group 1 winner Lear Fan.

On the whole, Big Brown has an unimpressive pedigree. The female family is modest at best and his sire, Boundary, was never a blockbuster.

One of the biggest problems I have with Big  Brown is his trainer, Rick Dutrow. I have to wonder how much of his overpowering quickness was a result of the “Dutrow Factor” and steroids. Dutrow has a knack for taking a seemingly average horse and turning it into a star. For examples, check out Thisonesforphil and more recently, C C’s Pal.

Another problem is a lack of soundness in his pedigree. Big Brown himself experienced problems with his feet, as did his sire, Boundary. The first six horses in his family raced an average of 7.16 times. His sire, Danzig, raced just three times. The same can be said for broodmare sire Nureyev. His dam, Mien, was raced only twice.

Big Brown’s stud career began at Three Chimney’s Farm in 2009 with a fee of $65k. He was bred to over 100 mares with the majority of them being stakes caliber. The early auction results are very encouraging. He had 16 horses sell for at least $100k with the best going for $310k and a median of $67.5k.

Despite the strong auction results, I have a hard time seeing Big Brown exploding as a freshman sire. His progeny might not be versatile enough to compete with their best peers until it’s time to go two turns.

The Kentucky Derby winner shuttled to Australia in 2010. Due to a much greater focus on turf racing, the horses he produced there might be more successful by comparison.

In 2012 Big Brown is standing for $35k at Three Chimneys. He’s still overvalued at that price. He offered very little value at his opening price and his freshman crop will show that. I have a very hard time seeing him compete for top freshman sire honors and would be quite surprised to see him make the top 3.

Dayatthespa

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The three-year-old turf filly division doesn’t get a lot of attention until later in the year, but it makes sense to start paying attention now. This is especially true when there is money to be made betting a strong race like the Sweetest Chant Stakes at Gulfstream which has attracted a competitive field of nine.

I’m pretty fond of Wholelottashakin (Scat Daddy x Carr Shaker by Crr de Naskra) in this spot. She was last seen in the Ginger Brew finishing sixth beaten two lengths. It was her first time going two turns and she had a very rough beginning. Despite that, she was closing best of all in the middle of the track in the late stages of the race. With a better break and a bit quicker pace, she could surprise bettors at 8-1. The Thomas Bush trained and Alex Solis ridden filly is my top choice here.

Ann of the Dance (English Channel x Dans La Ville by Winning) is the other logical horse. The $3k yearling purchase is also exiting the Ginger Brew, where she finished third beaten ¾ of a length after a tough trip. Julien Leparoux picks up the mount on the turf  filly and that alone makes her very live at 3-1. Martin Wolfson is the trainer.

New York-bred Dayatthespa (City Zip x M’lady Doc by Doc’s Leader) will attract plenty of support. She was last seen finishing a tired ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Before that she relented late to be second in the Grade 3 Natalma at Woodbine. That has proved to be a productive race with third place finisher Stephanie’s Kitten returning to win the Alcibiades Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The Sweetest Chant Stakes is the 10th race from Gulfstream on Sunday. You can bet my pick, Wholelottashakin (8-1), at TVG where new accounts get a $100 sign up bonus.

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Drill

Many thought of Drill (Lawyer Ron x Cat Dancer by Storm Cat) as a top Kentucky Derby contender after he took the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.

It’s been mostly downhill since then.

He returned from his Grade 1 win to finish second in the Grade 1 Norfolk, but was then 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, seventh in the Delta Jackpot and ninth in the CashCall Futurity. Trainer Bob Baffert is now dropping him in class and turning him back in distance in hopes of getting a win.

Drill has been very head strong in his last two races, vying for the lead in both before he faded. When he won the Del Mar Futurity he was able to relax and make a move from fifth. It would be wise to try and revert to those tactics and I fully expect to see Martin Garcia try to relax him. With lots of speed signed on, it would be the right move.

In my eyes, there is only one horse that might be able to compete with Drill. That is the rail horse, Midnight Transfer (Hard Spun x French Satin by French Deputy). He broke his maiden over this track going six furlongs last out in what was his fourth attempt at doing so. It looks like he’s getting good at the right time for trainer Carla Gaines. Joel Rosario should be able to sit a great trip so long as he breaks well. I’ll call for him to pull off the upset.

The $75,000 San Pedro Stakes is the fourth race from Santa Anita on Sunday. You can play it Twinspires.com where new members get a $100 sign up bonus.

Great Hot

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The Grade 2 La Canada Stakes on Sunday from Santa Anita is the final of a trio of races for four year old fillies. The $150k race has a strong recent history with winners like Life Is Sweet who would go on to capture the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic. SouthCoast Bloodstock selected 2010 winner, Striking Dancer, for Stevestan Stables.

May Day Rose (Rockport Harbour x May Day Bluff by Pine Bluff) will break from the rail for Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia. She was last seen fading in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes, a race that was too short for her. Before that she was second by a head in the Grade 2 Chilukki Stakes at Churchill Downs. The lass has plenty of speed and should make the lead early on.

It’s likely that Big Tiz (Tiznow x Squall City by Carson City) will fly under the radar. Out of a stakes winning mare and by a two Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, she’s bred to go two turns on the dirt. This will be her first time doing so. She posted a very strong effort in the 6 ½ furlong Kalookan Queen Handicap last out to be second behind a good filly named Rumor. That race should have tightened the bolts well enough to have her nice and fit for the La Canada. She’s my top pick and she should be a big price. Corey Nakatain will ride for trainer Mark Glatt.

Great Hot (Orientate x That’s Hot by Seeking The Gold) is the likely favorite after finishing third in the Grade 1 La Brea last out. She had a rough trip there and was probably capable of a better finish. The highlight of her 2010 campaign was a win in the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland. She was third in the Grade 1 Lady’s Secret over this same track and distance before that. I expect a sharp effort from this one.

Other key contenders include Include Me Out, Capital Plan and Tiz Flirtatious.

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