It all started on May 30, 2014 when a $407,077 Pick 6 carryover at Santa Anita Park attracted the attention of many handicappers, including me. Along with my partner, Mikey, I own a company created for claiming race horses.

We claimed our first horse on March 7, 2014. Since then, our horses have won four races at four different tracks: Belterra Park Gaming, Indiana Grand Race Course, Turfway Park and Tampa Bay Downs. Citizen Jane – the horse we brought home from Santa Anita Park – is responsible for two of those four wins.

Like I said, the mare piqued my interest as I handicapped the aforementioned Pick 6 set for the turf at Santa Anita Park in May 2014. I called Mikey and told him I thought we should bring the horse to our home track, Belterra Park. There she would outrun the local horses.

But on May 30, 2014, “C.J.” was still too expensive for us. She was running for $25,000 – which was the claim price. It was more than we were willing to spend, but we agreed she looked like a fish out of water and could lose the turf mile race she was about to run. We thought a bad performance could reduce her price.

We were right; she started last and stayed last in that race, crossing the finish line in dead last. One might rightly ask: Why would anyone want a horse that had just finished last? For one reason, the race, which was held at Santa Anita Park, was highly competitive. Losing that race did not make Citizen Jane a bad bet. Many of the horses that beat her in that race were of much higher caliber.

We knew that C.J. could win with the right combination of track and competitors. So when her claiming price dropped to half – to $12,500 – and she was put on a dirt track in her next start some weeks away, Mikey and I paid attention. She was bet to 9-2 odds.

After getting an email notifying us of the horse’s entry in the race in California, Mikey and I hopped on a plane to Los Angeles International Airport and drove to Santa Anita Park. With thousands of dollars in our pockets, we were ready to pounce on our mare. We bought Citizen Jane after the race with the help of Nick Hines, another long-time friend and business partner. C.J. was now on the Team Actioncat roster.

With Citizen Jane safely secured in a horse trailer heading for Cincinnati beyond the Rockies, Mikey and I headed to Las Vegas on a giant tour bus. We hit Harrah’s famous Sports Pit, where we bet on everything from Major League Baseball, World Cup soccer and of course, horse racing.

Trained primarily by Sergio Baez, Jane would go on to win two races and earn slightly more than 1.5 times her purchase price. She began recuperating and training on a Kentucky farm.

I have visited Citizen Jane twice since she last raced; when the video above was recorded she had not seen me for at least two months.
I saw her as I pulled my red Mustang into the farm where she is boarded. She stood stoically in a field next to the driveway. When she saw my car she recognized me and alerted. It was good to see her. She looked in fine condition and energetic to boot. She was returned to Belterra Park over Memorial Day weekend.

Race purses are not big on the Midwestern circuit; a trip to the Winner’s Circle with your horse is worth every minute, and every penny, of investment. The moment when friends and family are photographed with a winning horse in the Winner’s Circle is priceless.

Citizen Jane visited the Winner’s Circle twice for us in 2014. Though we are getting a late start in 2015, we still plan to win three races before the year expires. Win or lose, it is going to be one heck of an adventure.

The post Bringing a Thoroughbred from California… an Adventure appeared first on Unbridled Stride.

Try this on for size: The horse, after racing past every horse on the American thoroughbred circuit to win the Triple Crown, found himself stuck in a California traffic jam this week. Fox news and other cable news networks breathlessly reported the irony, though traffic jams in Los Angeles are definitely not news.

The news for those who follow thoroughbred racing is that the first Triple Crown Winner in 37 years will be back on the racing circuit perhaps as early as the fall.

Now that trainer Bob Baffert finally has American Pharoah at Santa Anita Park, the thoroughbred’s home stable, do not expect the champion to simply walk into a field and history. Baffert has plans for his finest horse.

The Los Angeles Times reports that American Pharoah will go back to training soon to prepare for his next race – the Breeder’s Cup Classic on Halloween, held at Keeneland near Lexington, Ky. This is a return race for the horse, who scratched from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2014 because of what Baffert called at the time, a “deep bruise” to his foot. X-rays of American Pharoah’s then-not-so-famous legs were clean, however.

The thoroughbred also might race in the $1 million Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. The New Jersey-based race is slated for January; another Baffert colt, Bayern, won that race in 2015.

Another contest you might see American Pharoah attempt: The Jim Dandy at Saratoga Race Course, a $600,000 purse. Baffert also might enter American Pharoah in the $1 million Pacific Classic.

After he’s finished racing, there’s the pricey stud game.

Industry experts estimate that $30,000 a stud is an average for retired racing thoroughbreds; American Pharoah’s product could start anywhere from $75,000 to $125,000 per stud, according to those same chatterboxes. Fox Business News says Coolmore Ashford Stud bought the breeding rights from American Pharoah owner Zayat Stables after the Preakness for an undisclosed amount, and a Zayat family member said they turned down one offer for $20 million.

Oh, and product endorsements; horses earn endorsement revenue for their owners. Molson, Coors and Heineken; Monster beverages; Wheels Up, a private jet service and other companies have paid big dollars to ride

American Pharoah to the finish line (not literally, of course).

Stay tuned …

The post After Triple Crown, American Pharoah Hits Traffic Jam appeared first on Unbridled Stride.

By Marco Estrich

American Pharoah
Let us say he has outrun his pedigree through athleticism, handiness, smarts and ability. He has beautiful action that is very efficient. He changes leads on cue and runs the turns extremely well – which is not a factor on the Belmont oval.

In size and ability he reminds me of Street Sense. His sire, PioneerOf The Nile, did run second in the Kentucky Derby but should have been disqualified for fouling Musket Man. PioneerOf The Nile then went nowhere in the Preakness, then retired. More to the point is his grand sire, Empire Maker. This Juddmonte flag-bearer was trained by Bobby Frankel, who is one of the best, but lost fair and square to Funny Cide in the Kentucky Derby. Before that race he had narrowly beaten Funny Cide in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. It was known he had a bad foot in the Derby, which was enough to turn the advantage to Funny Cide. After skipping the Preakness to recover, he won the Belmont Stakes in a very good performance-stopping 2:28.26. If American Pharoah wins, it will be this blood that carries him to victory. His bottom side offers good speed, but no stamina.

Materiality
His sire, Afleet Alex, provides a lot of stamina. In addition to winning the Belmont Stakes, Afleet Alex was known to go to the track twice a day. He would jog two miles at about 6 a.m., then return to the track a couple of hours later for a serious 1.5-mile gallop. Trainer Tim Ritchey knew his horse and drew on his equestrian background to design the demanding regimen.

The horse thrived under the unique and demanding training schedule. Canadian broodmare sire Langfuhr was really a seven-furlong horse. As a sire he has produced some very good horses that have been successful on all surfaces. The best of those horses was Lawyer Ron, who holds the 1 1/8 track record at Saratoga, a distance a lot of horses have run over the years at the Spa. The inexperienced horse had a horror trip in the Kentucky Derby, but came running in the stretch to pass virtually all the stragglers, while never threatening to hit the board.

Frosted
This gray Tapit colt (I like when the Tapit horses are gray). The “Ich Boys”, aka Marco Estrich & Bob Nastanovich, think the pedigree of a Grade II Stakes-winning mare, Fast Cookie, is worth considering. I always felt Fast Cookie was more of a speed filly, though she could hold that speed up to a mile or so in top company. Despite being the hottest sire in the United States, I am not sold on Tapit being a source of stamina. I feel his progeny is a tiny cut below at 1 ¼ or more, versus their top distance of 1 1/8. This fella’s pedigree could hit him right between the eyes in a bad way, right at the ¼ pole.

Keen Ice
Trainer Dale Romans has been bleating ever since this one finally drew into the Derby that he was crying out for a route of ground. Keen Ice has been training very forwardly at Churchill. Curlin, out of an Awesome Again mare, eliminates any pedigree issues. On many levels, this is a real live horse who should be a square price. Lifetime best effort required and almost expected in this race.

Mubtaahij
Last, but certainly not least, is this horse that possesses the most mixed signals. Negative. No horse prepared in Dubai has ever shot the board in any Triple Crown race. Of course the law of large numbers, including hundreds of millions of dollars, ensures this will not be the case forever. Problems with this camp add up to real hurdles to winning the Belmont Stakes: a quarantine at the U.S. border, the controversy over training a horse without shoes, a farrier and groom with travel visa problems and an all-world trainer named Mike de Kock who has no concept of what it took to win the Kentucky Derby.

Now five weeks later, Mubtaahij’s pedigree is clearly the most-intriguing in the Belmont Stakes. His sire Dubawi, a son of the ill-fated super horse, Dubai Millennium, stood only a year or two before succumbing to grass sickness. Yet that horse was an international-superstar sire. There are 13 group winners so far in 2015 alone. Distance is no issue. He goes back three generations to the horse, Seeking The Gold. Meanwhile his bottom line is filled with Eurostars. His mother never raced a distance shorter than 1 ¼. The female side is very Euro-weighted. The Northern Dancer line pokes up its head in the fourth and fifth generations.
Compared to the others, we have an outcross, which is a unique pedigree; it is not based in North America.

Now, about the race: American Pharoah, (God bless him) has been winning his races despite crawling home the last ¼. During the Kentucky Derby it was the last ¼ at 26.57. In the Preakness in the last 3/16, 20.72. Now conservatively add 6.5 seconds and his last ¼ is 27.22.

Put into perspective, Monarchos in the Kentucky Derby had a last ¼ at about 24.50. AP Indy at Belmont had a last ½ at about 49 seconds. Birdstone at Belmont was under 25 seconds followed by an under-27 second in the last two quarters.

Now we come to American Pharoah. Is a 28 or 29 second in the last ¼ going to get the job done? I don’t think so.

This is not a case of the fabulous filly, Mom’s Command, opening up a 10-length lead after six furlongs in a 1 ½ mile race. In her instance, even though she slowed down, the race was already effectively over. She would cruise home on top unthreatened to win by 3-5. No. Although I feel American Pharoah (AP) will be on the lead, which Espinoza should have done last year with California Chrome, at the quarter pole the posse will be coming and AP’s pedigree will also be calling.

Despite crawling home in the Derby and Preakness, AP was actually pulling away from the donkeys chasing him. Is there a stayer in the field who can mount a charge down the stretch? Smarty Jones was compromised by the early rides of Eddington (jockey Jerry Bailey) and Rock Hard Ten (jockey Alex Solis) challenging Smarty every step, needlessly, for the first mile. Will anyone sacrifice his own chances and act as a rabbit to impair AP?

WAGERING HINTS: Give extra attention to Keen Ice, who is coming into the race with a most-impressive work tab and Mubtaahij, whose breeding sticks out among the field. Some of the near misses had real rivals close in ability, who then turned the tables in the Belmont Stakes. Examples of this are Alysheba/Bet Twice, Sunday Silence/Easy Goer and Victory Gallop/Real Quiet. Even Touch Gold, who had fallen down out of the gate in the Preakness, was considered, and rightfully so, a real threat to Silver Charm. AP’s achievements tower over the rest of the field. Will I finally see history after attending the Belmont Stakes just about every year since 1979 – or will the racing gods intercede again to prevent a Triple Crown winner?

The post Look to Pedigree for Hints of Belmont Stakes Performances appeared first on Unbridled Stride.

As we embark on another “Assault on the Triple Crown” in the form of the wonderful horse American Pharoah, it is time to look back on the decline of the American thoroughbred. Horse racing, being a sport (or hobby) of the super-rich, tends to follow the world’s finances. Much of Europe’s and Asia’s wealth was transferred to the United States in advance of Nazi troops and Japanese expansion in the Orient.
Not only that, but war destroys horse stock. More than a million horses in Europe, Russia and Asia perished in World War I and World War II, drastically reducing many horse breeds. Europe and much of the Orient were reduced to rubble. With the exception of the naval base at Pearl Harbor, our nation’s farms, factories and infrastructure were untouched. Post 1945, the world’s wealth continued to flow into the United States in the form of investment. Our rock-solid political structure and booming economy made America a great place to park money.

Thoroughbreds flee fascism

Some of Europe’s top thoroughbreds also were sent to the United States, also in advance of fascist armies. At the start of World War II, French thoroughbred Cosquilla, who was pregnant with Princequillo, was shipped to Ireland to avoid German bombing. After Princequillo was born in Ireland, it became clear there would be no racing until the war was over, shipped mare and colt to the United States.
Princequillo went on to break the Saratoga Race Course record for 1 ¾ miles; he is considered to be one of the top two long-distance runners in American racing history. He moved to stud at Claiborne Farm in Paris, Ky.

Claiborne Farm in 1950 imported Nasrullah (“Victory of God“) for $370,000. This son of Nearco joined another son of Nearco, called Nearctic, who stood in Canada and sired Northern Dancer and other top-class racehorses. Another heavy sire line, Our Native, had also been established in America before World War II. Even pedigree genius Federico Tesio, who bred Nearco, imported his prize stallion Ribot, to Darby Dan Farm in Lexington, Ky., where the immediate result was the full brothers/sires Graustark and His Majesty. There have been many examples like these two.

Changing financial fortunes in other parts of the world gave other countries the opportunity to buy top thoroughbreds and develop new lines. In the Middle East, Arab nations with small populations discovered that their barren land hid great oil reserves. The ruling family of the United Arab Emirates had the money to act on what they consider their history and birthright as horse people. The thoroughbred foundation sires are two Arabians and a Barb, breeds that are historically Arab horses. The Maktoums, along with a consortium led by Robert Sangster and later replaced as rivals of the Maktoums by the Coolmore operation, bought almost all the Northern Dancer stock and sent it to Europe.

Japan buys world’s thoroughbred lines

The Japanese economy, recovering from WW II, entered the thoroughbred world a little later but just as effectively. First, they purchased a less-than, top-shelf Northern Dancer horse, Northern Taste. The horse led the Japanese sire list for many years. But in 1990–91 the Japanese pulled off a thoroughbred “coup.” Due to low interest in Kentucky, Sunday Silence, a Halo-sired horse, was sold to the Yoshida Family for a reported $5 million.

The horse soon proved to be a bargain as he became the most valuable animal in the world for at least a decade. He topped the Japanese sire list for earnings from 1995-2007. His progeny worldwide has earned in excess of $800 million dollars. His stallion and yearling sales reflect the same high-dollar price.

Not only that, but the Yoshida Brothers have bought more than 100 Group or Grade 1 winning mares for their breeding program. Those horses represent an amazing loss of top genetic thoroughbred DNA for American horse racing.

Ignoring the U.S. sales with breezes, precocious speed breeding and other trends mean a lot of top horse pedigree has been removed from North America, particularly from Kentucky. Top Euro sires Galileo, Montjeu, Dubawi, Danehill and Sadlers Wells can be traced back two generations to American pedigrees. Even Pioneerof the Nile sire, Empire Maker, was sold to Japan.
In my next article, I will tell you how this thoroughbred “DNA Drain” will show its effects at Belmont.

The post The Rise and Fall of the American Thoroughbred appeared first on Unbridled Stride.

The son of Pioneerof The Nile turned the corner into Churchill Down’s homestretch shortly after 8:30 a.m. with his ears up and alert as the tried-and-true colt wasted very little energy, thanks to one of the most fluid strides I and other horse-racing pundits have ever seen.

The Zayat Stables colt covered the five-furlong breeze in 1:00.20 with splits of :13, :25, :36.60, :48.60.

He was clocked galloping out in 1:13 for six furlongs, 1:26 for seven furlongs and finally 1:39.60 for one mile.

Victor Espinoza, who will ride American Pharoah at Belmont June 6, did not ride his charge during Monday’s workout; he left that job to another trusted hand. Jockeys are more likely to work out the horse in the days closer to the race.

It was one of the most effortless workouts I have ever seen. Thirteen winners of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes have failed to win the Belmont Stakes since Affirmed completed the hat trick in 1978.

Despite that big hurdle, all signs indicate this is the colt we have been waiting on for decades. I have never seen a Triple Crown winner, but American Pharoah certainly has the look of one!

With making history perhaps on his mind, American Pharoah will ship to Belmont Park on Tuesday at 10 a.m. EST. The American Pharoah workout as well as workouts for other Belmont-bound thoroughbreds can be viewed live on Churchill Downs’ website, http://www.kentuckyderby.com.

The post American Pharoah Impresses in Churchill Downs Training Run appeared first on Unbridled Stride.

To win: No. 5, COMANCHE’S STORM at any price over 8-1.
Exacta: 3, 5, 7 with 3, 5, 7, 8
Daily Double: Beginning in race 3: 8, 11 with 3, 5, 7, 8.

At any rate, here is how the race lineup looks as of Friday afternoon:

No. 1: GRANNY’S KITTEN
• (By Kitten’s Joy, out of Granny Franny by Grand Slam)
Granny’s Kitten breaks from the rail as a 6-1 shot under jockey Jose Ortiz. His trainer is Michael Maker and he is owned by Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey.
The connections show great confidence by entering this race, but can blame them after the horse won two sharp victories to start its career?
Other horses are more enticing, but bettors who back Granny’s Kitten will get good odds.

No. 2: WOODWIN W
• (by More Than Ready, out of Josette [IRE] by Danehill)
Trainer Jamie Ness brings Woodwin W to this race after four consecutive wins to start the gelding’s career.
Jockey Jevian Toledo retains the mount on this 6-1 contender, who won the James Murphy Stakes in a driving finish on May 16 at Pimlico Race Course.
Owned by Woody Weeks, the dark bay gelding figures to sit a good trip, but I am inclined to play against him as this will be his third race in little more than a month.

No. 3: PAPACOOLPAPACOOL
• (by Temple City, out of Saintwok by Saint Ballado)
Trainer Philip D’Amato has shipped from Southern California for this race. Tabbed at odds of 4-1, the gelding won three races in a row at Santa Anita and was most recently ridden out to victory by 4 1/4 lengths in the La Puente Stakes on April 19.
Owners Cellist Racing Group and Ali Nilforushan hope their charge can pass the class test after twice failing in graded stakes company earlier this year.
Luckily for them, it appears they have a much better horse this time around.

No. 4: OCHO OCHO OCHO
• (by Street Sense, out of Winner by Horse Chestnut)
Owner D.P. Racing probably thought this year would go a bit differently for Ocho Ocho Ocho, who capped an undefeated juvenile campaign by annexing the $1 million Grade 3 Delta Jackpot on Nov. 22.
Since then, however, he has been winless in three starts and came in 14th in the Kentucky Derby on May 2.
The drop in class will definitely prove beneficial to this 5-1 chance, but going to the turf now feels like a desperate move from trainer James Cassidy. The horse wins at a paltry 5 percent on the surface.

No. 5: COMANCHE’S STORM
• (by Pollard’s Vision, out of Miss Brown by Capote)
Trainer George S. Bush, a personal friend of mine and someone who has trained horses for me, brings #5 to the races.
I’ve heard good things about this horse for a long time and his talent is quite evident on the track. The inexperienced, but wildly talented colt is my choice to win at odds of 15-1 under jockey Rosemary Homeister Jr. for owner Salim Moonab.

No. 6: NIGHT PROWLER
• (by Giant’s Causeway, out of Mary’s Follies by More Than Ready)
This horse is with owner Paul P Pompa, Jr., trainer Chad Brown and reigning champion jockey J.J. Castellano. The chestnut gelding was last seen stalking his way to victory in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes on April 15 at Keeneland. He closed from well back in the Jan. 3 Grade 3 Dania Beach Stakes and will likely revert to that style in this race.
Brown and Castellano win this race a year ago with Bobby’s Kitten and would be no surprise on Saturday, but there are too many good horses in this race for me to choose the 3-1 favorite.

No. 7: HIGH NOON RIDER
• (by Distorted Humor, out of Modesty Blaise by A.P. Indy)
After his last two races, it is safe to say R. A. Hill Stable’s horse should never run on dirt again. Trained by George Weaver and ridden by Eddie Castro, he was a driving winner by 2 1/2 lengths when last seen taking down first-level optional claiming foes at Gulfstream Park.
He was second in the Cutler Bay Stakes behind Force The Pass. High Noon Rider is much easier to back at 15-1.

No. 8: FORCE THE PASS
• (by Speightstown, out of Social Queen by Dynaformer)
Trainer Alan Goldberg and jockey Joel Rosario’s Force the Pass is another strong contender and will benefit from the setup of this race. Owner Richard Santulli’s Force the Pass is at 6-1.

NO. 9: MY POINT EXACTLY
• (by Concord Point, out of My Golden Quest by Coronado’s Quest)
My Point Exactly is better suited for non-winners of three races lifetime allowance at this point, but is a stakes winner himself. He held his own in the Tarpon Stakes April 25.
I can’t back him at 15-1, but he’s one to keep tabs on. Trainer William Kaplan will have him in a better spot next time.
Juan Leyva retains the mount for owners Pinnacle Racing Stable LLC and Norman R. Justice.

No. 10: TUBA
• (by Magna Graduate, out of Sousaphone by Stravinsky)
Tuba, owned by Windy Hill Farm, will contest the pace before fading for trainer Anne Smith and jockey Kerwin Clark at odds of 20-1.

No. 11: GALLERY
• (by Munnings, out of Little Theater by Theatrical [IRE])
Gallery is also entered to face first-level allowance competition on the day before. He would be interesting in that race for trainer Miki Dini and jockey Jose Lezcano, but he is very hard to back against horses of this caliber in the Penn Mile.

The post Penn Mile Has 2015 Derby Also-Ran, Strong Horses appeared first on Unbridled Stride.

New York Racing Association’s Eric Donovan, perhaps the most aggressive morning line odds maker in horse racing, takes a firm stance in predicting how the public will bet races. I like his style and, if all 10 of American Pharoah’s foes line up to face him in the Belmont Stakes, then the program odds will look something like this:

1. American Pharoah (odds: 4-5) Odds could be shorter considering the attempt at glory and this colt’s high-profile connections.

2. Carpe Diem (odds: 10-1) The Pletcher factor will have bettors interested. Poor Kentucky Derby finish without an apparent excuse and lack of racing experience around this massive oval will hinder interest.

3. Frammento (odds: 20-1) Trainer Zito, who provided upset winners of this in 2004 (Birdstone ended Smarty Jones’ Triple Crown dream) and 2008 (Da’Tara), takes another swing with this plodder. Hard to fathom, but so were his recent Belmont winners and bettors will oblige.

4. Frosted (odds: 6-1) McLaughlin conditioned Jazil to win this in 2006. Frosted closed ground appealingly in the Kentucky Derby. Finished second in lone effort over track as a juvenile. Primed and live.

5. Keen Ice (odds: 20-1) Would have finished closer in the Kentucky Derby if able to get a clear path when needed. Still launched a solid bid and caught the eye. Has a stamina-laden pedigree and, although probably dependent on honest fractions to set up his kick, bettors will consider him a viable contender.

6. Madefromlucky (odds: 15-1) Enjoyed Belmont’s sweeping turns when taking the May 9 Peter Pan. Chased American Pharoah twice at Oaklawn Park to no avail. Also trained by Pletcher, this improving sort, sired by the former Baffert-trained Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky, has an abundance of stamina influences in his pedigree. Likable challenger.

7. Materiality (odds: 8-1) After blowing his chance with a hesitant Kentucky Derby start, the formerly undefeated Pletcher-trained Florida Derby winner earned plaudits by battling from a compromised position to finish sixth. Possesses field’s top Beyer (110) but has never raced here.

8. Mubtaahij (odds: 20-1) This international star is back on the scene. When eighth in the Kentucky Derby, he was buried down on the inside when failing to threaten. Commands respect as he is fully acclimated now and worked a May 17 bullet on Belmont’s grass course. It will be interesting to see how the betting public reacts.

9. Tale of Verve (odds: 30-1) When second in the Preakness, he picked up the pieces in the “goopy” Pimlico mud for a career best. Seems like that will end up being a career best.

10. War Story (odds: 50-1) Overmatched. Owner enjoys the big stage.

11. Conquest Curlinate (odds: 30-1) Got a feel for the unique Belmont surface when second in Madefromlucky’s Peter Pan. Like Keen Ice, he is a Curlin colt who may improve for the added distance. Also, he’s an Ontario-bred preparing for the Queen’s Plate.

The post Two Weeks Out: Belmont Stakes Morning Line Odds appeared first on Unbridled Stride.

The honestly beautiful and powerful horse now has a shot at the Triple Crown on Long Island June 6. Belmont Park will not only welcome A.P. (that is what American Pharoah’s best friends now call him) but the star will hear the Goo-Goo Dolls live while resting in his Belmont stable after the race. The band is known for its hit “Caught in the Storm.”

Get it?

That’s what the New York Racing Association says anyway.

“American Pharoah’s run for horse-racing immortality will be the anchor of this year’s expanded Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, featuring 17 graded stakes races and more than $10 million in purses,” racing association officials said Monday. “New, post-race concerts led by O.A.R. on Friday, and the Goo Goo Dolls on Saturday will also complement an expanded array of hospitality options for fans of all ages.”

Giving American Pharoah credit where credit is due is fine, but Tale of Verve’s run during the Preakness Saturday caught many by surprise. Packed back in eighth place at the second pole, Tale of Verve found his verve and headed through the rain to the front. He finished second behind A.P., beating, in order, Divining Rod, Dortmund, Mr. Z, Danzig Moon, Firing Line and Bodhisattva.

That is one heck of a rally.

Tale of Verve’s trainer, Dallas Stewart, told anyone willing to listen that he is eager to take on A.P. at the Belmont. Tale of Verve wants to be the one who defeats American Pharoah as he tries to be the first horse in 37 years to win the Triple Crown (Affirmed, 1978).

A few of A.P.’s rested friends may have something to say about that. Remember Frosted (fourth in the Kentucky Derby)? Materiality, Carpe Diem and Keen Ice? They sat out Saturday’s race to be in shape for New York.

Handicappers are sharpening their pencils and researching how Belmont’s mile and a half course changes the odds on these top horses. As American Pharoah returns home to Kentucky for rest and light training, the Kentucky Derby’s rested participants will enjoy another three weeks of relaxing, too.

Dortmund and Firing Line, however, may sit out the Belmont, also having run the two big races. Long rides in horse trailers to the tracks, screaming race fans, other noise and the race itself (Triple Crown races are more than a mile in length) take a toll on all horses.

Unbridled Stride’s writers will cover the run up to the Belmont Stakes as our handicappers prepare their picks, so stay tuned.

The post Belmont Stakes: Race Not Just About American Pharoah appeared first on Unbridled Stride.

1. Fame and Power
By First Defence, out of Storming On by Storm Cat, 5-2
Trained by Bob Baffert, this colt will race with blinkers on as he reunites with jockey Martin Garcia. Garcia piloted him to a maiden-breaking win on March 8 at Santa Anita Park and third-place in the Lexington Stakes on April 11. He will be a front-runner in the Sir Barton.

2. Measured
By Curlin, out of Added Time by Gilded Time, 15-1
Measured steps up in class after winning a first-level allowance race. Attempting two turns for the first time against a group of this quality is not a recipe for success.

3. Outlash
By Unbridled’s Song, out of Lady’s Touch by Touch Gold, 10-1
This lightly raced horse offers value; after all, how often do you see trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez at double digit odds? The $390,000, 2 year old projects to be a slower-than-average pace. Class is the question here.

4. Noteworthy Peach
By Read the Footnotes, out of One Green Peach by In Case, 10-1
This lightly raced but improving gelding can win from on or off the pace; he finished second in the Federico Tesio Stakes in April. I would not be surprised if he ran well, but some of his foes seem one step ahead of him.

5. Bold Conquest
By Curlin, out of One for Jim by Distorted Humor, 9-2
This well-bred colt has gone from being 4-1 in a Grade 1 race in October to 9-2 in an ungraded stakes in May. Getting away from American Pharoah will help his cause, but a slow pace could unwind him in the end.

6. Donworth
By Tiznow, out of Temple Street by Street Cry, 2-1
Impressive Gulfstream Park maiden winner returned to finish second as the favorite in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. If Donworth improves, which he should, Fame and Power and Bold Conquest are the only horses fast enough to beat him.

7. Henry Jones
By Temple City, out of Gold Bowl by Seeking the Gold, 20-1
D. Wayne Lukas had this colt doing well in sprints, but tries the route again anyway. Corey Nakatani will have him in a good spot if he is up to the task of winning. Flying under the radar.

8. Verraco
By Old Fashioned, out of N.Y. Friend by Friends Lake, 12-1
This closer will have too much to do, late in the race.

9. Conquest Bigluck E
By Lookin At Lucky, out of Hi Lili by Silver Deputy, 12-1
This horse looks fit enough, but I can see his trip now: Julien Leparoux will drop back to last as glacial fractions are being set and the race will be over before it starts, as far as Conquest Bigluck E is concerned.

First: Fame and Power, 5-2
Second: Donworth, 2-1
Third: Bold Conquest, 9-2

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Handicappers worth their salt consider the inside rail when choosing winners in the Preakness Stakes. Though the Preakness is only 110 yards shorter than the Kentucky Derby, something I call “inside rail speed bias” makes it a very different race than the Run for the Roses.

Though Pimlico Race Course is a one-mile oval, the track is not quite a true oval. Baltimore’s West Belvedere Avenue runs along the far track fence and across the top of the second turn, squeezing the track slightly. If you do a search for “West Belvedere Avenue, Baltimore” on Mapquest or Google Maps and turn on the satellite imagine, you will see how that second turn thins against the road.
The first horses through the Belvedere Avenue turn will avoid the pack that forms up behind them in that turn. The horses then have to navigate the turn for home, the next place the track gets funny.

The Belvedere Avenue snafu makes the course slightly egg-shaped, with the first, or clubhouse turn being a bit broader than the hairpin turn coming for home. While not as drastic as the turn for home at Delta Downs, which I liken to a six-furlong bullring, horses on the rail heading for home have a distinct advantage on their wide and driving brethren.

Examining Preakness race results will support this theory. While not many Preakness Stakes have been won in wire-to-wire fashion, I maintain that the Preakness winners and runners-up have generally come from the leading flight of horses. In 2013, Oxbow – Darrell Wayne Lukas’ entry – won wire-to-wire under jockey Gary Stevens. It was Oxbow’s final victory of a great career.

Confirmed miler Shackleford in 2011 battled desperately to the wire to hold on in a race, pushing his distance limitations beyond his scope on any other racetrack. Two of my favorite examples are runner-ups Alydeed in 1992 and Cherokee Run in 1993. Both were high, level-one turn sprinters. Alydeed won the Grade 1 Carter at Aqueduct and the Grade 3 Commonwealth at Keeneland, both at seven furlongs. He participated in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in 1993. Cherokee Run was the 1994 Eclipse Sprint champion. His sprint victories are too numerous to cite.

How did these two classy sprinters run second in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown? The Preakness speed bias. I suggest handicappers pick the horses most likely to grab an early lead and will more than likely get through those tight turns before the rest of the pack.

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