toddstrade

DJIA Quarterly

2013-05-15T17:54:00.003-05:00

Just an interesting chart.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Quarterly (log) chart. Interesting the 5-year cycle phase. Were traders in 1997 chattering about "bubble" and "too far, too fast", etc.?

Wed 5_15

2013-05-15T15:26:00.000-05:00

Underestimated the strength in the late morning extension. Didn't take the short. Some quick scalps in the last hour.

Breadth -

Vol Profile - yesterday's VPOC held and that's all we seemed to need

ES with globex

Tue. 05_14

2013-05-14T10:34:00.001-05:00

Open Drive opening type (vertical dash lines represent every 5-minute interval)

You have to be ready for it, entry was on the close of the first 5-minute bar. If wrong where would your stop be? The low of that first 5-minute bar? If that's the case your max loss would be approximately 3 E-mini points ($0.30 on the SPY).
Hindsight - I left a bit on the table, should have waited for the 5-min 3/10macd to take profits.
If you miss the earlier entry on an Opening Drive day oftentimes you can look to buy the first 5-minute Red bar, or a bar confirming that red bar.

Based on the hourly time frame my target was approximately $1. The trigger set up into the close and there was a decent technical pattern to measure (cup & handle)

Breadth two hours in

Mon 05_13

2013-05-13T16:13:00.001-05:00

Breadth

Vol profile comming into today

Higher time frame- potential long entry provided we break out (again) and get the fast/slow line crossover on the faster time frame's 3/10macd

ES with globex - a bit choppy on some of those entry triggers

Dollar 3d

2013-05-11T14:20:00.002-05:00

Update on the weekly time frame 3d criteria (shaded in the chart below, left) setup that took place on the U.S. Dollar Index at the start of this year.
The daily showing potential "trigger" entries (one of which "failed" where price reversed and made a lower low).

Watching for potential breakout over $83.70

Fri 05_10

2013-05-10T15:55:00.000-05:00

Choppy, choppy day....

Spent A LOT of time chewing through these high volume nodes

Breadth - Up/Down_Volume stayed trending bullish all day long. Adv/Decl issues bounced nicely at the zero-line initially, failed but recovered later on

Higher time frame - 65-min showing 2c-2d criteria (looking for a 3d criteria on faster time frame for entry long) while holding on top of the 20-period MA

Weekly/Daily bulls in control

Thu 05_09

2013-05-09T16:04:00.000-05:00

Didn't take any trades until the afternoon period

Breadth -

Volume profile coming into today. Bounces this week have come before or beyond VPOC or LVN areas

Higher time frame- Daily 3/10macd fast line starting to curve lower, 65min could be setting up for a steeper pullback, but you have to be prepared for an uptick in that 65min fast line

ES with globex

BIDU 3d

2013-05-08T17:54:00.000-05:00

I've been watching BIDU here and there, watching for the higher time frame 3d criteria setup to develop (shaded area in the chart below, left).
I thought this would be a good example to profile because of the difficulty which the "triggers" proved to be. The important consideration for this setup to exhibit is strength in price recovering a significant market structure high (look left for pivots).
The Blue up-arrows (on the 15-min chart below, right) are potential long entry "triggers". The black down arrows are instances where the fast line and slow line cross, which should be an "at most" stop out metric. The blue trendlines and horizontal line at $86 indicate significant pivots for price to take out, so when you see an up arrow, look to the left and see which pivot that price needed to close above.
There were some short entries to consider, but I wanted to focus on the 3d criteria setup. Of the 5 potential entries, 2 were scratches and 2 averaged both a $0.50 loss per share (which could have been helped with shorting the failure of the setup. That is, had you waited for the fast line and slow line cross to tell you to get out, depending upon your comfort with reading price action, some of these trades could have been managed for better results. So, at wost, you may have lost $1/share but currently be in a position with an approximately $6/share reward

Potential triggers after the jump:

Wed 05_08

2013-05-08T15:38:00.000-05:00

Breadth - zero-line bounce on the Adv/Decl

Volume profile coming into the day -

Higher time frames:
SPY

ES with globex

ES with globex intraday

Tue 05_07

2013-05-07T15:32:00.004-05:00

HIgher time frame, watching potential momentum roll-over

ES with Globex

Higher time frame ES with globex

Mon 05_06

2013-05-06T15:50:00.000-05:00

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

Volume profile coming into the day. Though Friday was a momentum day, it wasn't a trend day, more of a "Normal" day type (Wide IB with IB High/Low retained.

Higher time frame - looking for the 3/10macd fast line and slow line to catch up with one another (on the 65min) for any further long considerations.

ES with Globex and long entries considerations

Fri. 05_03

2013-05-04T10:52:00.002-05:00

First buy based on 50% Fib. retrace (Really should have been in off the open. Really, really should have been in on the NFP release). Other trades during the day were smaller scalps. Second up-arrowdoesn't show exits.

With bullish wind in your sails, it's a little easier to "trust" some typical TICK divergences (highlighted). Selling (profit-taking) seemed prevalent throughout the day.

I believe LBR refers to the setup below as an "Anti" which shows itself as a small flag. In toddstrade™ nomenclature I refer to it as 1b-to-1a. The "trigger" would be the faster time frame fast line going green (in the scenario below the faster time frame was showing 2c-2d criteria so you could drill down further still and look for a 3d criteria on a faster time frame). The discretionary aspect of this approach arrises in making the decision to either wait until the bar closes or get in as price is breaking out.

As an aside, a picture perfect "First Cross" setup occurred on 4/23 (indicated with an up-arrow on that date) on this higher time frame ES chart (below, left). Also 1b-1a criteria except the slow line just came up through the zero-line.

The day's range with volume profile

Thu. 05_02

2013-05-02T16:26:00.003-05:00

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

ES with Globex - didn't take the entry for this in the morning, it was the bar preceding the bar with the up arrow on the 5min chart above (the bar before the one with an "X" underneath it).

Breadth - started out moderately strong from the open, broke out above 200k by 11:00am

Volume Profile coming into the day - Shorts not going to press anything into the numbers tomorrow. Opened right under a HVN then proceeded to move higher through the next two HVN's

A good example, on the higher time frame, where a sell divergence in a momentum indicator doesn't mean price has to go down. The daily 3/10macd showing a sell divergence and a down-ticking fast line, yet closed at a higher high

Pretty neat that the ES closed at a lower high, just under 1600 going into tomorrow's numbers. Can go either way

Wed. 05_01

2013-05-01T16:05:00.000-05:00

Got a bit chopped up for the ISM. Frustrating being how textbook of a stop run that was within the first hour.
Also got a but chopped up in mid-afternoon. I gave up on the trade setup because of "Fed Day" excuse which is stupid to make excuses like that. I failed to include the down arrow on the 5-min 3/10macd to indicate the last trade into the close.

Breadth - Compare the Adv./Decl. (top) to that of SPY 5min (above, right).

Vol. Profile coming into today - Opened right under previous day's value area and traded through the second, smaller, distribution area. Eventually traded back to NVPOC from Friday.

ES with globex - trended lower since 7am

Higher t/f split - Price coming into decent support

Tue. 04_30

2013-04-30T20:27:00.000-05:00

Held the 50% retrace from Friday's low to Monday's high, back to close on the highs for the last day of April. Got a little chopped up into the last hour.

Volume Profile coming into the day. A very similar profile formed today as it was yesterday. Today we filled in the low volume node area in the $158.70-.90 range, still a large volume node (acceptance) in the 59.40 - 59.70 area.

ES with globex

Another bar in the books for the monthly time frame. 8th month into our inverted cycle (as goes the Stevenson PTT concept)

Mon 04_29

2013-04-29T15:22:00.001-05:00

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

First hour:

Breadth - started out pretty strong in the morning, rermaind so throughout the day

Volume profile coming into the day

The weekly SPY has been showing this divergence for some time now (similar to the "overbought can remain so for a long time" a divergence can see price continue to go contrary to the divergent signal). The daily is clearly showing a cycle environment. While it could be a topping pattern a move out of this INX 1600 ceiling on momentum should result in a measured move higher. So far the SPY is in a double-top with potential for a complex Head & Shoulders pattern. Wednesday is May 1 (sell in May cliche) AND a Fed day FYI

Fri. 04_26

2013-04-27T10:52:00.001-05:00

Got a bit chopped up in the morning and had to leave just as the noon trigger was occuring. Difficult taking a short when the 5-min slow line has a positive slope (criteria 3).

Very choppy in the morning as price was working in the previous High Volume area from the 24th ($157.99)

ES with globex.

Thu. 04_25

2013-04-25T15:29:00.001-05:00

Interesting day, a lot of offers in the afternoon; pretty early in the afternoon as well, not your usual 2:30 selling

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

breadth-

Volume profile - perfect tag of the naked vpoc at $159.27

ES with globex

Wed. 04_24

2013-04-24T19:35:00.002-05:00

Horizontal development is torture. It is also very easy to get chopped up without patience. This volume profile (below, most recent) is what I mean by "horizontal development". After testing a price point above (low volume node, blue line) and a price point below (high volume nodes, red lines), price coils sideways between the two and edges are faded, so you end up buying a breakout higher that gets sold or lower that gets bought:

Anyway, A few paper-cuts in the late morning

Breadth today - Advance/Decline took a hit early in the morning, and remained slightly better than neutral (divergence with price?).

Volume profile didn't change too much

ES with globex

Tue. 04_23

2013-04-23T15:24:00.000-05:00

Extreme advancing days you really need to be in before the first hour. The 5min 3/10 macd will be practically useless as well (if you want a good price), so you have to either buy some form of support (vwap, pdh, o/s, etc) and/or go to an even faster time frame for entry cues.
The problem is knowing when you are in an extreme advancing environment before the first hour has traded.
Opening with a 1a criteria (or 4c in the case of an extreme declining day) is my first clue. The extent of the gap involved (there is most often an impulsive gap) and behavior in premarket. Finally, some breadth readings to help you feel like the wind is in your sails.
Breadth started strong (TICK opened +1000)

Opening hour- pullback to the Open and vwap coinciding with the pre-market high $157

Lucky exit before the tweet-crash

Volume profile coming into the day, we settled right back into price familiarity

ES_globex. Very interesting that the tweet-crash bounced at the overnight range midpoint, on the dot

Mon 04_22

2013-04-22T15:38:00.000-05:00

A typical move you see a lot of in the SPY; Higher high price breakout (1), pullback making a lower low (2) but price retains a significant level on multiple tests (more visible on the faster time frame), which lead to price squeezing higher.

today's breadth

Opening swing and first hour (Initial Balance). Very wide IB range today, yet the high was still taken out (higher value being priced in).

Volume Profile coming into today

Volume Profile going forward

ES globex, Opening session in black vertical dash line, arrows indicating entry potentials

Higher time frame: Daily price is spending a good deal of time within the 20- & 50-day MA window. A large gap remains overhead, and it would be healthy to spend some time auctioning this gap range, but a 65-min fast line/slow line cross would temporarily change this higher time frame bullishness.

Crude Oil-

Gold -

Fri. 04_19

2013-04-19T20:50:00.000-05:00

Got chopped up in the middle-morning and took early "signals" later on

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

First hour

Breadth

Volume profile coming into the day, the opening rotations tested the previous day's High Volume Nodes

ES globex - basically the faster time frame "triggered" around the same time that the higher time frame did which resulted in a wider stop tolerance needed and longer patience for the consolidation ro resolve

Higher time frame - still potential for the faster time frame (65min) to pull back (fast line pull back to the slow line), but equally likely for a trend line break and a move back to the $157 area

Thu. 04_18

2013-04-18T15:31:00.000-05:00

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

Divergences in breadth today; S&P500 Advancing/Declining on the left, Up/Down Volume on the right

First hour's trade (Initial Balance)

With volume profile

Daily showing 2c-2d criteria (looking for the 65min chart fast line to go green for a long signal). So long as the March gap holds we can perceive the daily 3/10macd to be a reverse divergence (still not actionable until the 65min fast line goes positive).

ES with globex. Two 3/10 macd's to reflect two time frames in one (top indicator being the 15-min 3/10macd)

Wed. 04_17

2013-04-17T17:08:00.000-05:00

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

Initial short (above, right) taken based on how the pre-market set up

Also, the Opening Swing was similar to a drive and stood up to a re-test

Breadth strongly bearish from the Open

Volume profile

Head & Shoulders until proven innocent. If it is proven innocent a short squeeze would likely ensue, so stay alert.

Tue. 04_16

2013-04-16T16:08:00.000-05:00

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

SPY with volume profile

Breadth strongly bullish from the open

ES globex -