Tour Outsider

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

2012-02-07T10:10:00.002-05:00

Time is starting to move fast for this year's season. Five tournaments have already been played, and it won't be long before the US PGA Tour will be finishing up the West Coast swing and heading to the Florida Swing. However, before getting ahead of myself, it is time to focus on this week's tournament.

This week, the US PGA Tour is on the famed (and beautiful) Monterrey pennisula to play the charismatic AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am at the Pebble Beach Golf Links.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am.

#	Player	CLi
1	Spencer Levin	7.95
2	John Mallinger	13.55
3	D.A. Points	14.50
4	Sean O'Hair	17.60
5	Rickie Fowler	19.75
6	Bryce Molder	21.25
7	Bob Estes	22.15
8	Brian Gay	25.40
9	Josh Teater	26.30
10	Jim Furyk	27.40
11	Rod Pampling	27.70
12	Brandt Snedeker	27.70
13	Vijay Singh	28.50
14	James Driscoll	28.95
15	Phil Mickelson	29.80

Even though the CLi figures are high for this tournament (only one player has a CLi figure below 10), I am still going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings: Levin (analysis), Mallinger (analysis), Points (analysis), O'Hair (analysis), and Fowler (analysis).

Levin is tops on the list. He has played well, and could have easily won last week running away in Arizona. However, he let his nerves get to him during the final round (playing it safe, rather than staying strong in his mind) and Stanley made up for his previous week's final hole collapse. It would be cool if Levin did the same thing as Stanley, and pulled a win this week in the AT&T after his final round performance in Arizona last week. It will come down to mental toughness, because he is definitely on his game physically with his swing. He placed 4th last year in this tournament and has never missed the cut in the three times he has played in the event. He has played four of the five tournaments this year, and has made the cut in all four of the tournaments.

If you take out last year's performance in this event, Mallinger has played well in this event. He has two 3rd place finishes (2007 and 2008). He has played sporaic in the three tournaments he has played in this year. But one of those three events, he placed 2nd (at the Humana Challenge -- which has the same feel as the AT&T being a pro-am event).

Points won this event last year, and has two 8th place finishes in the three tournaments he has played in this year. He finished 45th last week in Arizona.

O'Hair has placed respectively in this tournament the past three years, placing 31st (2011), 35th (2010), and 10th (2009). In the three tournaments he has played in this year, he has finished 2nd (Sony Open), 17th (Hyundai Tournament of Champions), and 45th (Waste Management Phoenix Open).

Fowler has finally made into my picks this year. Some have suggested that he should have been there prior to now as he is a California boy, loves playing in California, this is the West Coast swing where tournaments are in California, he is a solid player, etc. Well, now he is in my picks for a California tournament. Fowler has placed 27th the one time he has played the tournament (in 2010), and has placed 13th and 26th in the first two tournaments he has played in this year.

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am:

#	Player	CLi
1	Spencer Levin	7.95
2	John Mallinger	13.55
3	D.A. Points	14.50
4	Sean O'Hair	17.60
5	Rickie Fowler	19.75

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Bryce Molder
Tiger Woods
Spencer Levin
Nick Watney
Hunter Mahan

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

We have 1 player in common this week: Levin.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Review

2012-02-06T04:05:00.000-05:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Mark Wilson | 19 | $68,843
Jason Dufney | 8 | $170,800
Brandt Snedeker | 50 | $14,713
John Rollins | 8 | $170,800
Martin Laird | 61 | $13,115

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Rickie Fowler | 26 | $43,310
Bill Haas | 19 | $68,843
Brandt Snedeker | 50 | $14,713
Mark Wilson | 19 | $68,843
Martin Laird | 61 | $13,115

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$438,271	$208,824	TO
Avg Rank	29.2	35.0	TO
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 3 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

It is good to see that both of our 5 picks all made the cut.

On a different note, Crane continues to confuse me. He has been high in the CLi rankings the last 4 tournaments. I have picked him twice, and passed over him twice. The two times that I picked him, he played poorly. And the two times that I didn't pick him, he played well. He placed 2nd this week. Maybe this is a case of not trying to play the market. Whenever he is in the rankings, should I just pick him???? I don't know. I am just glad that I got a win this week so I can keep my lead over Bolton :-)

Waste Management Phoenix Open

2012-01-31T10:20:00.000-05:00

The US PGA Tour heads to Arizona for the Super Bowl weekend staple tournament, the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Mark Wilson	3.35
2	Jason Dufner	5.70
3	Brandt Snedeker	9.80
4	John Rollins	14.55
5	Ben Crane	15.50
6	Matt Kuchar	17.90
7	Jeff Maggert	18.30
8	Martin Laird	19.00
9	Charles Howell III	20.05
10	Jonathan Byrd	20.10
11	Webb Simpson	21.35
12	D.A. Points	22.10
13	Kenny Perry	22.25
14	Brian Gay	23.45
15	Robert Garrigus	23.75

There are 3 players with CLi figures less than 10: Wilson (analysis), Dufner (analysis), and Snedeker (analysis). These 3 players will be my first 3 picks for the tournament.

Wilson won here last year, and won two weeks ago at the Humana Challenge. In the 4 times he has played this tournament, his worse finish has been a 48th finish. He placed 8th and 14th respectively the two other times he played the event.

Dufner finished 2nd here last year behind Wilson, and finished 12th two weeks ago at the Humana Challenge. Maybe he will mirror Wilson this week -- hopefully a good mirror.

Snedeker won last week, and placed 8th two weeks ago in the Humana Challenge. He has played in this event five times and has two top 10 finishes.

For my fourth pick, I am going to go with the next player in the rankings, Rollins (analysis). He has played consistently so far this year, having made the cut in all 3 tournaments he has played in. Two of those tournaments were top 10 finishes, with a 3rd place finish last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has not missed the cut in this tournament the past 9 times he has played the tournament. Plus, he finished 2nd in 2007.

For my fifth pick, I am going to skip down the list (yes, I am skipping over Crane (analysis) -- he hasn't been consistent when I have picked him or skipped over him). I am looking at Laird (analysis) for my fifth pick. Laird placed 3rd here last year and has two top 15 finishes so far this year. One of those top 15 finishes is a 2nd at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

Below are my 5 picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Mark Wilson	3.35
2	Jason Dufner	5.70
3	Brandt Snedeker	9.80
4	John Rollins	14.55
5	Martin Laird	19.00

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Rickie Fowler
Bill Haas
Brandt Snedeker
Mark Wilson
Martin Laird

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Waste Management Phoenix Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Snedeker, Wilson, and Laird.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Farmers Insurance Open Review

2012-01-30T12:59:00.001-05:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Farmers Insurance Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Ben Crane | 80 (MC) | $0
Charles Howell III | 43 | $18,720
Brandt Snedeker | 1 | $1,080,000
D.A. Points | 8 | $162,000
Nick Watney | 60 | $13,020

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Nick Watney | 60 | $13,020
Phil Mickelson | 109 (MC) | $0
Brandt Snedeker | 1 | $1,080,000
Camilo Villegas | 22 | $57,600
Ben Crane | 80 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,273,740	$1,150,620	TO
Avg Rank	38.4	54.4	TO
Made Cut	4	3	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

We both had a winner in Snedeker. Snedeker backed into the win, as Kyle Stanley took a triple bogey on the last hole and lost in the playoff against Snedeker. That is a heartbreak for Stanley.

This week gives me the lead again, as the difference for me was Points, who placed in the top 10, and Howell III made the cut...giving me the edge.

Only Crane missed the cut in my picks. He was a favorite based upon the CLi figures, but missed the cut by one shot. The CLi got that one wrong.

Farmers Insurance Open

2012-01-24T16:14:00.003-05:00

The US PGA Tour stays in California this week to play to play the Farmers Insurance Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Farmers Insurance Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Ben Crane	4.40
2	Charles Howell III	8.35
3	Brandt Snedeker	8.35
4	D.A. Points	11.70
5	Nick Watney	13.10
6	Justin Leonard	13.80
7	Phil Mickelson	14.70
8	Keegan Bradley	18.65
9	Matthew Every	19.25
10	John Rollins	23.00
11	Camilo Villegas	23.50
12	Anthony Kim	25.30
13	Chris Kirk	31.10
14	Bubba Watson	32.00
15	Vijay Singh	32.85

Nice to see the CLi figures lower than last week. Last week for the Humana Challenge, none of the CLi figures were below 10 -- which is not a good sign for the accuracy of the CLi. However, the CLi actually was predicting well last week until the 3rd round winds come up. This week there are 3 players with a CLi figure less than 10. That usually indicates a better prediction value for the CLi.

I am not going to skip over Crane (analysis) like I did last week. The CLi had him at 2nd last week and he ended up playing well -- he was was leading after the 2nd round. This week Crane has the lowest CLi figure. So there is no way I am going to not pick him. So Crane is my first pick.

For the remaining 4 picks, I am going to stick with the CLi as they all look like good picks this week: Howell III (analysis), Snedeker (analysis), Points (analysis), and Watney (analysis).

Howell III has not missed the cut in the 9 times he has played this event, and has placed in the top 15 six of those times with two 2nd place finishes. He has a 2nd place finish two weeks ago in the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Snedeker has placed in the top 10 three of the five times he has played in this tournament, with a 2nd and 3rd place finish in 2010 and 2007 respectively. Plus, he finished 8th last week at the Humana Challenge.

Points has placed 5th and 9th the last two years in this event and has finished 6th and 12th in the first two events of the year (the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open in Hawaii).

Watney has placed 6th, 9th, and 1st the last three years in this event, and placed 9th in 2007 -- that is four top tens within five years. The only tournament he has played this year and within the past 4 weeks is the Hyundai Tournament of Champions where he finished 12th.

Below are my 5 picks for the Farmers Insurance Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Ben Crane	4.40
2	Charles Howell III	8.35
3	Brandt Snedeker	8.35
4	D.A. Points	11.70
5	Nick Watney	13.10

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Nick Watney
Phil Mickelson
Brandt Snedeker
Camilo Villegas
Ben Crane

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Farmers Insurance Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Watney, Snedeker, and Crane.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Farmers Insurance Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Humana Challenge Review

2012-01-23T11:25:00.000-05:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Humana Challenge to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Chris Kirk | 42 | $18,512
Brian Gay | 42 | $18,512
Bryce Molder | 121 (MC) | $0
Charles Howell III | 49 | $13,821
Harrison Frazar | 92 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Bill Haas | 64 | $11,816
Martin Laird | 14 | $95,200
Bo van Pelt | 54 | $12,488
Charles Howell III | 49 | $13,821
Kyle Stanley | 92 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$50,845	$133,325	TI
Avg Rank	69.2	54.6	TI
Made Cut	3	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

The delayed 3rd round (due to high winds) kicked my butt this week. Going into the 3rd round, and at the start of the 3rd round, my picks were sitting relatively pretty (would have been even better if I had not skipped over Crane, as he was leading after the 2nd round). However, after the organizers decided to suspend the 3rd round on Saturday, my players' scores skyrocketed. My players lost 72 spots from round 2 to round 3, and an additional 14 spots from round 3 to round 4...oops. I guess they didn't like the 3rd round being stopped on Saturday and being moved to Sunday (or they didn't like the high winds.....).

This resulted in a poor showing for me this week. Although Bolton do very well this week either, he did squeak out the win.

Note: If I had not skipped over Crane in the CLi rankings (he was ranked 2nd in the CLi ranking), I would have bested Bolton. Crane finished 8th in the tournament, earning $156,800. Maybe that will teach me not to go against the CLi. :-)

Humana Challenge

2012-01-17T11:15:00.003-05:00

The US PGA Tour moves to the mainland and lands on the west coast to play the Humana Challenge. This tournament was formerly called the Bob Hope Classic. As of this year, the tournament has the name of the sponsor, Humana. Humana was founded in 1961 in my current home town, Louisville, Kentucky, by David Jones Sr.

The son of the founder, David Jones, Jr, works in my area of research -- entrepreneurial finance. He is a partner in a venture capital firm, Chrysalis Ventures. So I end up following what Jones and Chrysalis decide where to invest their money.

Now on to what this post is about, picking 5 players for this week's professional golf tournament that is sanctioned by the U.S. PGA Tour.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Humana Challenge.

#	Player	CLi
1	Chris Kirk	11.15
2	Ben Crane	16.15
3	Brian Gay	18.25
4	Bryce Molder	21.20
5	Charles Howell III	21.65
6	Harrison Frazar	21.85
7	Anthony Kim	21.95
8	Justin Leonard	22.45
9	Greg Chalmers	23.15
10	Kevin Na	24.40
11	John Senden	25.20
12	Martin Laird	27.60
13	Jason Dufner	27.65
14	Brendon De Jonge	28.25
15	John Rollins	30.25

I am going to go with the top player, Kirk (analysis). This might seem like an interesting pick as Kirk is not well known. However, placed well in the tournament last year (his only time he has played the tournament) with a 7th place finish. In addition, he comes into the tournament with several solid finishes at the Sony and the Hyundai in Hawaii along with strong finishes in his last tournament in 2011 (the CIMB).

I am going to skip over Crane (analysis). He has not missed a cut at the tournament, however, he has not placed all that well either. Other than his 5th place finish in 2004, he hasn't broke the top 10 in the 7 times he has played this tournament since 2000. His average finish is 38.6. I am looking for better upside in a player this week.

The next 4 players in the list look better in terms of upside. These players include Gay (analysis), Molder (analysis), Howell III (analysis) and Frazar (analysis). Gay and Molder have played well in this tournament the past couple of years. Howell III and Frazar placed 2nd last week at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Below are my 5 picks for the Humana Challenge :

#	Player	CLi
1	Chris Kirk	11.15
2	Brian Gay	18.25
3	Bryce Molder	21.20
4	Charles Howell III	21.65
5	Harrison Frazar	21.85

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Bill Haas
Martin Laird
Bo van Pelt
Charles Howell III
Kyle Stanley

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Humana Challenge

We have 1 player in common this week: Howell III.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Humana Challenge:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Sony Open in Hawaii Review

2012-01-16T12:04:00.003-05:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Sony Open in Hawaii to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Steve Stricker | 38 | $22,000
K.J. Choi | 38 | $22,000
Kevin Na | 127 (MC) | $0
Charles Howell III | 2 | $363,000
Rory Sabbatini | 29 | $32,756

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Steve Stricker | 38 | $22,000
K.J. Choi | 38 | $22,000
Zach Johnson | 54 | $12,540
Charles Howell III | 2 | $363,000
David Toms | 81 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$439,756	$419,540	TO
Avg Rank	46.8	42.6	TI
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	DRAW

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was a draw.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 0 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Sony Open in Hawaii

2012-01-10T08:21:00.002-05:00

The US PGA Tour stays in Hawaii to play the first full field event of the season, the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Sony Open in Hawaii.

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	2.50
2	K.J. Choi	5.50
3	Kevin Na	7.35
4	Charles Howell III	9.60
5	John Rollins	10.90
6	Rory Sabbatini	11.10
7	Webb Simpson	15.85
8	Briny Baird	22.10
9	Jimmy Walker	25.45
10	Jerry Kelly	26.40
11	Kevin Chappell	26.60
12	Tom Pernice Jr.	27.50
13	Carl Pettersson	27.85
14	Zach Johnson	28.60
15	Jason Dufner	29.00

Last week at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, the CLi "performed" well....with the CLi calculation having 3 players in the top 5. And looking at this week's CLi, the figures look low, which is a good sign that the CLi has some intelligence. There are 4 of the players have CLi figures less than 10.

Thus, I am going to go with the top 4 players: Stricker (analysis), Choi (analysis), Na (analysis), and Howell III (analysis).

Rollins (analysis) is the 5th player, and his CLi figure is close to being under 10 (10.90). However, I am looking at the player just below Rollins for my 5th pick: Rory Sabbatini (analysis). Sabbatini has been on the island for a week already and hopefully is on Hawaii time....after being a couple of minutes late to his tee time during the 2nd round of the Hyundai Tournament of Champions last week. His play has been consistently good on the island which is the ultimate reason I want to include him in my picks this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Sony Open in Hawaii :

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	2.50
2	K.J. Choi	5.50
3	Kevin Na	7.35
4	Charles Howell III	9.60
5	Rory Sabbatini	11.10

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Steve Stricker
K.J. Choi
Zach Johnson
Charles Howell III
David Toms

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Sony Open in Hawaii

We have 3 players in common this week: Stricker, Choi, and Howell II.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Sony Open in Hawaii:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Hyundai Tournament of Champions Review

2012-01-10T06:28:00.003-05:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Sean O'Hair | 17 | $99,000
Martin Laird | 2 | $650,000
Jonathan Byrd | 3 | $369,000
Steve Stricker | 1 | $1,120,000
Ben Crane | 9 | $165,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Gary Woodland | 24 | $70,000
Webb Simpson | 3 | $369,000
Nick Watney | 12 | $130,000
Bill Haas | 20 | $84,000
David Toms | 26 | $66,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$2,403,000	$719,000	TO
Avg Rank	6.4	17.0	TO
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 0 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Ah, this is nice to start off with such a decisive win and a lead. 3 of my 5 picks placed 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Although this was a limited field tournament (only 28 players), a 6.4 average ranking is rather strong, with the lowest possible average being 1.8 ....if I had picked the winner and the next 4 players tied for 2nd [ (1 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2) / 5 ]. I will take 6.4, and a win against Bolton. :-)

Hyundai Tournament of Champions

2012-01-03T13:54:00.000-05:00

We are now onto a new season, the 2012 season to be specific. So before getting into the picks, HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone.

This week the tour starts the season off with a limited field tournament in Hawaii, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Only the players that won an event in 2011 are invited to play. There are 28 players that won a tournament and accepted the invitation to play in the tournament. Of the 28 players, 12 are playing in the event for the first time (i.e. there were at least 12 first-time winners in 2011).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

#	Player	CLi
1	Sean O'Hair	8.65
2	Martin Laird	8.85
3	Joanthan Byrd	9.05
4	Steve Stricker	9.85
5	Ben Crane	11.00
6	K.J. Choi	12.60
7	Lucas Glover	12.80
8	Rory Sabbatini	12.85
9	Bill Hass	14.75
10	Michael Bradley	15.35
11	Nick Watney	15.40
12	Aaron Baddeley	15.75
13	Mark Wilson	16.75
14	Bubba Watson	17.15
15	Bryce Molder	17.40

There are two factors this week that create unknowns. One unknown factor is the 2 month layoff between the end of the 2011 season and the start of this year's season. And the second unknown factor is that there are 12 players that have not played in this tournament before. This makes it more difficult for people to pick who will play well, and makes computer analysis more difficult since there is less data use in formulas. However, I am going to stick with the CLi results since it has done a rather respectable job in the past with this tournament (2011 picks, 2010 picks, 2009 picks, 2008 picks).

The top 5 players in the CLi are O'Hair (analysis), Laird (analysis), Byrd (analysis), Stricker (analysis), and Crane (analysis). All but Crane have a CLi figure less than 10, which is a good sign that the CLi calculation / results is showing some intelligence. However, there are only 28 players in the field this week, so the CLi figures should actually be lower. Past CLi figures for this tournament have seen the top 5 have CLi figures below 7 or have at least several players below less than 5. So it will be interesting to see what happens this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions :

#	Player	CLi
1	Sean O'Hair	8.65
2	Martin Laird	8.85
3	Jonathan Byrd	9.05
4	Steve Stricker	9.85
5	Ben Crane	11.00

As with the past 2 years, Rob Bolton is the Tour Insider, and the individual that I will compare my picks to.

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Gary Woodland
Webb Simpson
Nick Watney
Bill Haas
David Toms

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Hyundai Tournament of Champions

We have 0 players in common this week.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Season Finished; Taking a Break Until the Start of 2012 Season

2011-11-27T12:00:00.000-05:00

As I normally do, I am taking a break this time of the year until the next season starts on the USA PGA Tour. Thanks for all of your support.

In the meantime, if you want to run your own Golf CLi you can do so for any of the tournaments on the major tours by setting up an account on golfcli.com. There are some good tournaments taking place this month and next month on the European, Japan, Asian, AsiaOne, and South African tours, along with the Q-schools.

Wishing everyone happy holidays, where ever you are located. See you in the new year.

Summing Up The Year

2011-11-27T09:39:00.000-05:00

This is a post to sum up the results for the year between the Tour Outsider (me) and the Tour Insider (Rob Bolton -- for a 2nd year).

For a second year in a row, I have lost to the Rob Bolton, who has graciously and unknowingly played the Tour Insider role in my competition between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider.

Prior to having Bolton as the Tour Insider, I had not lost to the Tour Insider (the first 3 years of the combination). However, last year I lost to Bolton -- 19-21-4 (TO, TI, Draws). That was a close race. However, this year, I lost in a big fashion to Bolton -- 12-30-3 (TO, TI, Draws). I am going to need to ante up my game next year so I don't have a third straight losing season.

Now in analyzing the results this year, I have put together a summary of some of the results. When looking at our combined picks, we did rather well (so if you use both of our picks, things turn our well).

In the 45 tournaments that we made picks, we had some winners, along with a good number of top 5s, top 10s, and top 25s.

Below is a summary of the aggregate figures for the season.

	TO	TI
Number of Tournaments	45	45
Number of Picks	225	225
Total Earnings	$25,327,129	$31,753,627
Average Rank	40.65	35.95
Number of Made Cuts	173	183
% of Made Cuts	77%	81%
Number of Winners	7	10
% of Winners	16%	22%
Number of Top 5s	30	37
% of Top 5s	13%	16%
Number of Top 10s	53	67
% of Top 10s	24%	30%
Number of Top 25s	113	123
% of Top 25s	50%	55%

When looking at the results, it doesn't look like I lost as bad as I did. It probably means that I was close on many of the tournaments, and when I had my good picks, he also picked those players as well.

Here's to next year!!!

Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic Review

2011-10-26T09:44:00.000-04:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Justin Rose | 93 (MC) | $0
Spencer Levin | 37 | $20,210
Trevor Immelman | 6 | $147,110
Nick O'Hern | 6 | $147,110
Charles Howell III | 76 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Justin Rose | 93 (MC) | $0
Luke Donald | 1 | $846,000
Spencer Levin | 37 | $20,210
Webb Simpson | 6 | $147,110
Gary Woodland | 12 | $95,175

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$314,430	$1,108,495	TI
Avg Rank	43.6	29.8	TI
Made Cut	3	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic

2011-10-19T08:49:00.000-04:00

This week is the last official event of the U.S. PGA Tour's season this year. The event, the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic, is played at the Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando (Florida). Orlando and Disney World are good places to be at this time of year....especially with family.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Justin Rose	6.95
2	Spencer Levin	9.95
3	Trevor Immelman	10.65
4	Nick O'Hern	11.70
5	Charles Howell III	13.30
6	Kevin Streelman	13.95
7	John Senden	15.55
8	Jerry Kelly	15.90
9	Roland Thatcher	20.10
10	Tom Lehman	22.25
11	Davis Love III	23.90
12	Jeffrey Overton	25.10
13	John Rollins	25.85
14	Mark Calcavecchia	26.40
15	Michael Allen	26.90

As with last week, I am going to stick with the CLi rankings for my picks. At least this week there are several players with CLi figures below 10....which is a better sign that the CLi calculation is more accurate.

Below are my 5 picks for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic :

#	Player	CLi
1	Justin Rose	6.95
2	Spencer Levin	9.95
3	Trevor Immelman	10.65
4	Nick O'Hern	11.70
5	Charles Howell III	13.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Justin Rose
Luke Donald
Spencer Levin
Webb Simpson
Gary Woodland

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic

We have 2 players in common this week: Rose and Levin.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

McGladrey Classic Review

2011-10-16T20:54:00.001-04:00

It is now time to review the picks for the McGladrey Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

John Rollins | 85 (MC) | $0
Webb Simpson | 2 | $432,000
Charles Howell III | 32 | $19,467
Bo Van Pelt | 85 (MC) | $0
Matt Kuchar | 20 | $43,333

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Webb Simpson | 2 | $432,000
Charles Howell III | 32 | $19,467
David Toms | 71 (MC) | $0
Matt Kuchar | 20 | $43,333
Bo Van Pelt | 85 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$494,800	$494,800	Draw
Avg Rank	44.8	42.0	TI
Made Cut	3	3	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was a draw.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 12 wins to the Tour Outsider, 29 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

This week it boiled down to if Toms or Rollins played better. Both players missed the cut. However, Toms, was one shot better and 14 spots better in rankings. Thus, we tied in two of the categories, and Bolton won the rank average category.

McGladrey Classic

2011-10-10T21:00:00.001-04:00

Back to the east coast we go. This week the US PGA Tour is on the Atlantic seaboard in Sea Island, Georgia to play the McGladrey Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the McGladrey Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	John Rollins	11.0
2	Webb Simpson	12.0
3	Charles Howell III	14.7
4	Bo Van Pelt	17.4
5	Matt Kuchar	20.4
6	Jerry Kelly	21.3
7	David Toms	22.0
8	Robert Allenby	23.7
9	Chris Stroud	29.5
10	Chad Campbell	29.7
11	Arjun Atwal	30.8
12	Carl Pettersson	33.6
13	Heath Slocum	34.4
14	Tim Petrovic	36.4
15	Mark Wilson	36.5

Although there are no players with CLi figures below 10 (which is usually a sign that the CLi is not going to be a good predictor this week), I am going to stick with the CLi rankings.

Below are my 5 picks for the McGladrey Classic :

#	Player	CLi
1	John Rollins	11.0
2	Webb Simpson	12.0
3	Charles Howell III	14.7
4	Bo Van Pelt	17.4
5	Matt Kuchar	20.4

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Webb Simpson
Charles Howell III
David Toms
Matt Kuchar
Bo Van Pelt

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: McGladrey Classic

We have 4 players in common this week: Simpson, Howell III, Kuchar, and Van Pelt. Come'n Rollins!!!

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the McGladrey Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
1	15%	15%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	15%	15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

As you will notice, I have changed my standard CLi settings this week. I have changed the number of previous instances of the tournament from 5 to 1 and put less emphasis on the previous instance of the tourmament and more emphasis on the most recent playing of the players. The reason is because this tournament is young as it was started last year (2010). So the data from this tournament is limited to only 1 year, and thus I want to put more emphasis on the data leading up to the tournament this year.

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Frys.com Open Review

2011-10-09T22:23:00.003-04:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Frys.com Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Tim Herron | 105 (MC) | $0
Bryce Molder | 1 | $900,000
Ben Crane | 112 (MC) | $0
Nick O'Hern | 81 (MC) | $0
Chad Campbell | 49 | $12,175

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Spencer Levin | 7 | $130,313
Bryce Molder | 1 | $900,000
Brandt Jobe | 42 | $16,088
Hunter Haas | 42 | $16,088
Scott Piercy | 67 | $10,200

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$912,175	$1,072,689	TI
Avg Rank	69.6	31.8	TI
Made Cut	2	5	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

Frys.com Open

2011-10-04T16:41:00.000-04:00

This week the US PGA Tour is California to play the Frys.com Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Frys.com Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tim Herron	7.1
2	Bryce Molder	10.4
3	Ben Crane	11.7
4	Nick O'Hern	12.7
5	Bill Lunde	17.1
6	Chad Campbell	19.6
7	Spencer Levin	22.4
8	Paul Goydos	22.9
9	Kevin Stadler	23.3
10	Steve Flesch	25.7
11	Chris Stroud	25.9
12	Stephen Ames	29.1
13	Charlie Wi	31.2
14	Billy Mayfair	31.5
15	Tim Petrovic	32.6

Only one player has a CLi figure below 10, and that is Herron (analysis) with a figure of 7.1. When looking at the results from Herron in this tournament, has played well the past couple of years in the event. In addition, he is coming off 5ht place finish last week in the Justin Timberlake tournament. This gives me some confidence in him this week.

For my next 3 picks, I am going with Molder (analysis), Crane (analysis), and O'Hern (analysis).

For my final pick, I am going to skip Lunde (analysis) and go with Campbell (analysis). Campbell has been playing consistent golf, although he has not placed high. So he should be a good player to ensure a made cut, and who knows, maybe he will get his flat blade rolling this week and finish high this week in California.

Below are my 5 picks for the Frys.com Open :

#	Player	CLi
1	Tim Herron	7.1
2	Bryce Molder	10.4
3	Ben Crane	11.7
4	Nick O'Hern	12.7
5	Chad Campbell	19.6

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Spencer Levin
Bryce Molder
Brandt Jobe
Hunter Haas
Scott Piercy

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Frys.com Open

We have 1 player in common this week: Molder.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Frys.com Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
2	15%	15%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	15%	15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

As you will notice, I have changed my standard CLi settings. I have changed the number of previous instances of the tournament from 5 to 2 and put less emphasis on the previous instance of the tourmament and more emphasis on the most recent playing of the players. The reason is because this tournament has only been played on the Cordvalla Golf Club for the last two years even though the tournament has been in existence for 5 years. The first 3 years were played on the Grayhawk Golf Club - Raptor Course in Arizona.

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Review

2011-10-03T10:49:00.002-04:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

George McNeill | 76 (MC) | $8,228
Chad Campbell | 23 | $38,060
John Mallinger | 93 (MC) | $0
Kyle Stanley | 10 | $97,533
Cameron Tringale | 73 | $8,492

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Ryan Moore | 118 (MC) | $0
Nick Watney | 2 | $475,200
Kyle Stanley | 10 | $97,533
George McNeill | 76 (MC) | $8,228
Spencer Levin | 5 | $149,160

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$152,313	$730,121	TI
Avg Rank	55.0	42.2	TI
Made Cut	3	3	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 12 wins to the Tour Outsider, 27 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

2011-09-27T12:16:00.000-04:00

This week the US PGA Tour starts it's Fall Finish tournaments with a tournament in Vegas, the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	George McNeill	7.00
2	Chad Campbell	13.90
3	John Mallinger	13.90
4	Kyle Stanley	14.60
5	Cameron Tringale	16.45
6	Charley Hoffman	17.70
7	Jonathan Byrd	19.95
8	Nick Watney	22.60
9	Martin Laird	22.80
10	Ryan Moore	24.45
11	Josh Teater	24.95
12	Spencer Levin	25.00
13	Jason Bohn	25.25
14	Chez Reavie	26.95
15	Kevin Na	28.00

I am going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings this week: McNeill (analysis), Campbell (analysis), Mallinger (analysis), Stanley (analysis), and Tringale (analysis).

The pick of Mallinger and Tringale might seem strange, especially with Hoffman (who has won here), Byrd (who won here last year), and Watney (and who is a native of Vegas) waiting in the wings. However, Mallinger is coming in with confidence. Rather than wait for the big tour to come to him, he spent time playing on the Nationwide Tour. He finished 2nd in two Nationwide events, and 6th in a 3rd event. Whereas, Tringale finished 11th last year in this event and has been having a solid outing this season on the big tour. Although he has no top 3s or wins this year, look for that to possibly change this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open :

#	Player	CLi
1	George McNeill	7.00
2	Chad Campbell	13.90
3	John Mallinger	13.90
4	Kyle Stanley	14.60
5	Cameron Tringale	16.45

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Ryan Moore
Nick Watney
Kyle Stanley
George McNeill
Spencer Levin

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

We have 2 players in common this week: Stanley and McNeill.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

TOUR Championship Review

2011-09-25T22:36:00.000-04:00

It is now time to review the picks for the TOUR Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Luke Donald | 3 | $418,667
Justin Rose | 20 | $152,000
John Senden | 25 | $137,600
Adam Scott | 6 | $272,000
Phil Mickelson | 10 | $227,200

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Luke Donald | 3 | $418,667
Adam Scott | 6 | $272,000
Webb Simpson | 22 | $147,200
Nick Watney | 26 | $132,800
Justn Rose | 20 | $152,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,206,867	$1,122,667	TO
Avg Rank	12.8	15.4	TO
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

TOUR Championship

2011-09-20T07:39:00.000-04:00

This week the US PGA Tour is in Atlanta to play a limited field tournament (30 players), TOUR Championship. The tournament is the last tournament in the FedEx Playoff series.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the TOUR Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Luke Donald	5.05
2	Justin Rose	5.35
3	John Senden	6.90
4	Adam Scott	9.00
5	Vijay Singh	10.40
6	Nick Watney	10.90
7	Phil Mickelson	11.55
8	Geoff Ogilvy	11.85
9	Brandt Snedeker	12.55
10	Hunter Mahan	12.60
11	Matt Kuchar	12.85
12	Jason Day	12.90
13	Jonathan Byrd	14.95
14	Charles Howell III	15.35
15	David Toms	15.45

I am going to stick with the top 4 players in the CLi rankings: Donald (analysis), Rose (analysis), Senden (analysis), and Scott (analysis).

Then I am going to skip down to Mickelson (analysis) and pick him. He loves playing in Georgia, and hopefully the last tournament in the FedEx Playoff series will inspire him to make some putts and score well.

Below are my 5 picks for the TOUR Championship :

#	Player	CLi
1	Luke Donald	5.05
2	Justin Rose	5.35
3	John Senden	6.90
4	Adam Scott	9.00
5	Phil Mickelson	11.55

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Luke Donald
Adam Scott
Webb Simpson
Nick Watney
Justin Rose

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: TOUR Championship

We have 3 players in common this week: Donald, Scott, and Rose.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the TOUR Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

BMW Championship Review

2011-09-18T19:12:00.000-04:00

It is now time to review the picks for the BMW Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Matt Kuchar | 22 | $68,444
Jim Furyk | 22 | $68,444
Camilo Villegas | 6 | $278,000
Adam Scott | 37 | $36,000
Dustin Johnson | 65 | $16,720

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Matt Kuchar | 22 | $68,444
Luke Donald | 4 | $384,000
Adam Scott | 37 | $36,000
Webb Simpson | 5 | $320,000
Dustin Johnson | 65 | $16,720

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$467,608	$825,164	TI
Avg Rank	30.4	26.6	TI
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 11 wins to the Tour Outsider, 26 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

BMW Championship

2011-09-13T17:36:00.001-04:00

After a week off, this week the US PGA Tour goes to Chicago to play the BMW Championship at Cog Hill. This is the 3rd tournament in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, leaving only the the Tour Championship after this tournament. The top 30 players in the FedEx Cup points after the BMW Championship will make it to the field of the Tour Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the BMW Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Matt Kuchar	7.20
2	Jim Furyk	8.30
3	Camilo Villegas	8.40
4	Adam Scott	8.70
5	Dustin Johnson	11.85
6	Luke Donald	12.20
7	Chez Reavie	13.30
8	Brandt Snedeker	15.40
9	Carl Pettersson	15.85
10	Steve Stricker	17.40
11	Vijay Singh	19.30
12	David Toms	21.20
13	Zach Johnson	23.25
14	Sergio Garcia	23.45
15	Justin Rose	23.75

I am going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings: Kuchar (analysis), Furyk (analysis), Villegas (analysis), Scott (analysis), and Johnson (analysis). The top 4 have CLi figures below 10, which is a good sign they will play well. The interesting inclusion is Villegas. However, he does play well in this event and has placed in the top 10 in 2 out of the last 3 tournaments...with the 3rd one being a 25th finish.

Below are my 5 picks for the BMW Championship :

#	Player	CLi
1	Matt Kuchar	7.20
2	Jim Furyk	8.30
3	Camilo Villegas	8.40
4	Adam Scott	8.70
5	Dustin Johnson	11.85

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Matt Kuchar
Luke Donald
Adam Scott
Webb Simpson
Dustin Johnson

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: BMW Championship

We have 3 players in common this week: Kuchar, Scott, and Johnson.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the BMW Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.