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Watchers for the 2-2-12 trading session

2012-02-01T20:53:00.000-06:00

CDCAQ

New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed under the highs and above the open. Volume increasing most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. A Pinkie, so be careful. A 1 fail of some kind may prove pivotal.

PROT

First red day Supernovae. Finished down more than 20% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This fairly likely given the clear red result of Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was modest, range bigger, mixed signals for new shorts. Stops over 6.30.

DWCH

See my previous comments, little has changed, including the key price levels for entry. Closed below the open on a gap up positive by a bit less than 0.5% today. No A/H quote. Avoid big gaps, particularly down ones.

CALD

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 7.50) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume strong Wednesday, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close or at least over 7 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Nice daily chart price correction move and B/O over 7.

SNMX

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (3.26) of Wednesday. Medium volume on the rise, which is a neutral sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed under Wednesday's close, too. The low on that day is arguably too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 3 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote.

CEDC

B/O scan. I like it long back over 4.55 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a reasonable sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 4.50 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g possible to buy.

AMRN

Long here on spiking up at or near the gun as scalp. Or on consistent moves above the open after 5 minutes. Early red to green move possible for a long. No shorts. Keep flat on truly weak price action. The idea is to buy into a take/hold over 9. A previous mover that might keep going if it can overtake the trigger, where resistance is on the daily chart. Up a tad A/H so our weak open/gap close and advance may not pan out. Volume on the buy side was modest, a fair for new longs.

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Trade review 2-1-12

2012-02-01T20:50:00.000-06:00

I got some picks correct on this day...

Hits:

PROT

After 30 minutes this began to trade under the open, yielding the short off a gap down. It had a great afternoon dump for more down side or another panic entry. Closed down nearly 20.5% today for the win.

MILL

A gap up soon fell under the flat line for the fade entry. It rose back to and a bit over the flat line, but the earlier highs and thus stops held. Patience was rewarded when it fell into the close, ending down by about 1.5% today and likely under the entry price.

ZAGG

Except for the noise candle, this advanced and triggered easily, moving over the open consistently. It peaked in an hour and decayed much of the remainder, but still closed up over 4% today and above the entry price.

Misses:

ENTG

Longs were faked out when this gap up moved sideways and then shot up over the opening early. It peaked in an hour then began a long slide down, actually reddening into the finish, which was red by over 0.5% today.

DWCH

A fake out for shorts when a gap up fell under the flat line briefly near lunch. It soon returned back to green, nominally so but up nevertheless. It closed north by a bit less than 0.5% today and likely above the entry.

REE

An early red to green move that broke over the trigger briefly sucked longs in. It soon fell back under the flat line and bottomed in an hour, moving sideways the remainder and closed south by over 5.5% today.

Push:

CALL

Except for the noise candle, which printed the hod, it fell, soon going under the flat line. This decay continued all session, en route to a negative close of over 12.5% today. The good news is longs were not faked out.

Off record pick CDTI began to weaken on the noise candle, which printed the hod. It rebounded to equal but could not take out the initial high. Soon it fell under the flat line and continued to dive, closing red by over 6% today. The price action prevented fake outs for longs, fortunately.

Totals:
Daily record: W-3-L-3-P-1
50%

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Watchers for the 2-1-12 trading session

2012-01-31T17:42:00.001-06:00

PROT

Again, see my previous comments for details, little has changed. Buy volume really dropping, so hopefully we will see a clear red day sans fake outs to fade into. Stubborn Supernovae has burned a lot of early shorts.

CALL

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 19.75) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume medium Tuesday, a tepid sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Tuesday close or at least over 19 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Nice daily chart and B/O move.

MILL

Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, real down side on day 2. Ended up 1% on Tuesday via a gap up that closed below the open after 5 out of 6 up days. Stops just above 4.46 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Strong buy volume on Tuesday which means it may have decent chances for shorts. Avoid all big gaps, especially large gap down ones. No longs.

ZAGG

B/O scan. I like it long back over 10.12 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Tuesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Wednesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Tuesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Medium volume on the rise, a neutral sign for new buys. Up over 1% A/H. Exiting below 10 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g possible to buy. Watch 10.

ENTG

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (9.65) of Tuesday. Small volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Wednesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Tuesday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 9.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote shift. Rebound?

DWCH

I'm looking to short this on a fall fail back under 9 and holds. Be careful, rather low float. If it triggers and reverses on you, get out and do not look back. Could use a bit more volume, too, a tad thin. No longs. Also short on spike downs at or near the gun as a scalp. Short on confirmed weakness cues after the noise candle. Volume still strong on the buy side, so it might not be done yet. Short could come in afternoon, or it might crack at 9.50 instead. Stalk this. Avoid big gap downs, but up is alright if top fish risking. No A/H quote.

REE

Long here on spiking up at or near the gun as scalp. Or on consistent moves above the open after 5 minutes. Early red to green move possible for a long. No shorts. Keep flat on truly weak price action. The idea is to buy into a take/hold over 7.50ish. A previous mover that might keep going if it can overtake the trigger, where resistance is on the daily chart. Down A/H so our weak open/gap close and advance may pan out. Volume big, not the greatest sign for new longs but float is uncertain. If it's small, squeezing is ever more likely at times.

Off table, I'm watching CDTI for a similar move as the above stock, in this case back over 3.50/holds. See my general comments for previous equity for approaches.

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Trade review 1-31-12

2012-01-31T17:39:00.000-06:00

I got some plays correct today...

Hits:

CLSN

An easy win for longs when a gap up a cent above the lod advanced out of the gate, taking 2 and triggering. It continued to rise all session, en route to a green finish of nearly 10% today.

HEB

An easy win for shorts when this printed the hod on the noise candle, on a gap and crap from near 0.50 It kept diving early, and though it rebounded a few times, it closed weakly and south a lot today under the entry.

Misses:

PROT

Another fake out loss for weary shorts when this weakened early off a gap up that fell red on the noise candle. It continued to dive on the next one, but subsequent candles slowly climbed to the flat line, which it tested several times until a strong close greened by nearly 5.5% today.

VICL

Shorts got fake out here, too. A clear gap up fell to the flat line and then under. Then it broke below the trigger, but soon after it rose to there and moved sideways much of the day, offering 1 more exit without losses before it closed strong and negative by around 1% but likely above the entry, and with commissions...

Push:

CMXI

A 1 cent gap up and crap did not permit longs. It stayed under the flat line all session, thought it challenged it a few times. Closed negative by over 0.50% today on a no play push.

CWCO

This failed to trigger. Opening on a gap down, it filled and moved sideways near the flat line all day just over it, until a weak close ended matters down by over 0.5% today. Another no play push.

YMI

Another no play push when this fell on the noise candle under 2 and failed to retake it all session. It meandered under the flat line until the close, which was negative by nearly 2% today.

Off record plays went as follows: GTXI opened on a gap up that pulled back but held essentially held 6, whereupon it moved sideways and up most of the way until a weak close which ended south by over 0.5% today. No easy play, hard to say how it went for most buyers, it depended on how they entered. PNCL was a home run pick, wish I had it on my official list! Opening on a gap up near the hod, it soared early and often in the morning, then moved sideways much of the remainder, en route to a green close of nearly 41.5% today.

Totals:
Daily record: W-2-L-2-P-3
50%

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Watchers for the 1-31-12 trading session

2012-01-30T18:57:00.000-06:00

PROT

First red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 1% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This fairly unlikely, given the weak red result of Monday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range medium, tepid signals for new shorts. Stops over 6.40.

CMXI

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 1.40) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume huge Monday, a bad sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Monday close or at least over 1.23 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Nice daily chart B/O move. An OTC stock, be careful here.

CWCO

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (7.97) of Monday. Small volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Monday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 7.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote. 8 is key here.

CLSN

B/O scan. I like it long back over 1.95 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Monday or the 1st 30 minute low of Tuesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Monday is arguably not too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Medium volume on the rise, a neutral sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 1.90 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g? Possible to take 1/2 position over the trigger and the 2nd 1/2 over 2/holds.

HEB

I like this short on over extension on a gap and crap top fish or better a fall fail back under 0.50/holds. Possible to take 1/2 position under the close of Monday after the noise candle, the other 1/2 under the trigger. Avoid big gap downs. Also short on confirmed weakness cues or panic dumps at any time, possibly scalping. No A/H quote. It needs to test/fail 0.50 1st to use the above scale in method. Keep in mind many plays like this go on to become Supernovae scans; it would not surprise me if it overtakes 0.50 and keeps going a bit.

YMI

I like this long above 2/holds. Continuation play. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. No shorts or big gaps. If it gaps over the trigger let it test/hold/perk 1st before entering. Down almost 3.5% A/H. As such, an early red to green long is possible, and it might pull back early then rise over 2 at the same time. Medium buy volume today, a neutral sign. Also long on consistent moves above the opening price level after the noise candle. Stops under 1.80 might do the trick. A similar play is GTXI but that is not an official pick.

VICL

Bearish Engulfing. I like it short below the low of Monday. Modest volume on the drop, which is a fair sign for new sellers. Keep flat on real strength aside from a typical green to red move, etc. Stops just above the high last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed above Monday's close, too. The high on that day is not too far away to use for risk control via stops. Ideally keeps under 3.75ish on any pull ups to remain viable as a short. Avoid all big gaps/longs. No A/H quote. 3.50 fail is key.

Off record, watch PNCL for a pull back test/hold/perk off 1 for a long, or a fall fail back under 1 for a fade.

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Trade review 1-30-12

2012-01-30T18:54:00.000-06:00

I got some of them right today...

Hits:

ENMD

Off a gap down this traded under the open after the noise candle, yielding a short. It continued to dive until lunch, when it slowly rose most of the remainder, closing south by over 8% today but likely under the entry.

CTC

After moving flat out of the open, this advanced to the flat line but failed there. Then it fell gently back to and just under the open, yielding a short entry. It continued to decay the remainder, en route to a red finish of nearly 16% today.

Misses:

PROT

This looks like a narrow win on paper or at least a push, but the price action probably means it's a loss. After falling on the noise candle from the hod, it bounced back to the flat line and then began to decay, falling under the open for the short. It fell until the afternoon, where it rose into the close nearly back to the flat line to finish likely above the entry.

Push:

LNG

No trigger here as this fell out of the gate, printing the hod on the noise candle, too. It soon began to rise the rest of the way slowly, but that could prevent the no play push. Ended essentially unchanged +/- today.

KFN

A no play push that did not trigger for longs. It fell a bit out of the gate, rose, then fell in the afternoon. Closed down a bit over 0.5% today on a daily doji print via the gap down.

XIDE

Another no play push when a gap down fell on the noise candle, then rose but could not fill, failing just under the flat line and decaying back to and under the open. After a failed bounce, it continued to decay the remainder, closing south by over 7% today.

IPHI

A clear gap down discouraged entries by shorts. This looks like a clear win on paper, but it's more like a push. It fell on the noise candle, rising right after. It retraced the lows, closing just a cent under, with the next candle rising. It's unlikely any shorts entered on this. A gradual rise followed, with some up and down movement, en route to a red finish of over 3.5% today. A no play pretty obvious here.

Off record picks went as follows: RENN moved above the open and 5.50 after the noise candle off a gap up for the long, which continued to rise all day gently, en route to a green finish of over 20% today. QPSA looks like a win for longs on paper, but after taking 5, it could not hold and meandered near there, en route to a positive end by close to 2% today. STVI also challenged the key price of 1.50 but closed well off of the lows and under it a bit, finishing essentially unchanged on a daily doji print.

Totals:
Daily record: W-2-L-1-P-4
66%

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Watchers for the 1-30-12 trading session

2012-01-29T13:14:00.001-06:00

PROT

Supernovae, still maturing. See my previous comments for tips on entry/exit/trade management ideas as they are still mostly applicable. Buy volume still big, so respect it. This could run back to to 6.50 even 7 before it dumps, so be willing to get out if it suddenly reverses on you and honor stops. This has burned many shorts.

ENMD

First red day Supernovae. Finished down more than 11.5% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This fairly likely given the clear red result of Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was modest, range medium, tepid signals for new shorts. Stops over 2.86.

CTC

Another 1st red session Supernovae play, with analysis similar to that for the above stock. See those comments for general ideas on entry/exit/trade management angles. Differences here are slight regarding volume but it sported even more pedestrian range. It fell less than 7% so additional down side is more likely than with the above. In any case it must be watched. No A/H quote.

LNG

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 12.87) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume modest Friday, a fair sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at least over 12.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Nice daily chart price correction move. A "Scamex" stock.

KFN

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (8.99) of Friday. Small volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Monday. More conservatively a stop placed under Friday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 8.80 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote. 9 is key over/under.

XIDE

B/O scan. I like it long back over 3.55 into the daily chart gap and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Friday or the 1st 30 minute low of Monday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Friday is arguably too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 3.50 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g?

IPHI

Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Ended south 1% on Friday via a gap down that closed below the open after several up days. Stops just above 16.03 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Medium sell volume on Friday which means it may have neutral chances for shorts. Avoid all big gaps, especially large gap down ones. No longs.

Off record, watch RENN for more upside after an early red to green or a gap and crap short. QPSA is similar, with an area of interest at 5 over/under. STVI may move over 1.50 or fail there for a fade. It had a big move recently, such stocks should always be in focus.

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Trade review 1-27-12

2012-01-29T13:10:00.000-06:00

I got some picks right on Friday...

Hits:

ENMD

A gap down from the hod fell out of the gate and traded under the open after the noise candle, yielding a short. It kept decaying for an hour, then moved mostly sideways, closing down by nearly 12% on Friday.

DPTRQ

A small win after commission when a gap down from near the hod fell out of the gate, yielding an entry after the noise candle. It continued to languish under the flat line, closing off the lows but still red by over 10.5% on Friday.

Misses:

PROT

A fake out loss for longs when a gap up sported early weakness that traded under the open well after the noise candle. It reversed in 30 minutes and greened. More upside followed all day, en route to a up finish of over 31.5% on Friday. The stop out point would have been above the previous session high, fortunately.

ENA

A doji print lost money for shorts if they entered after the noise candle when a gap up traded under the open early on. It gradually reversed course after faking out sellers and ended up over 2.5% on Friday.

Push:

ROSG

Aside from the doji print noise candle, this rose out of the open, and did not give shorts a shot. It retraced lows late session, but even that candle closed upwards. Ended north by nearly 2.5% Friday. A push.

PRMW

A 1 cent gap down that failed to trigger, eventually closing down by nearly 2% on Friday. A no play push.

CTC

A flat debut at the hod fell out of the box, but after the noise candle it could not continue diving to make new lows. After sideways moves it eventually briefly touched new lows but gradually rose from there tepidly. Closed down over 6.5% on Friday. Looks like a clear win on paper, but price action likely a no play push.

Off table pick KUTV was a winner, closing up over 7% Friday. Rising out of the gate and printing the lod on the noise candle, it broke out in the afternoon decisively to overtake 2 through the close. LSI opened on a clear gap down which discouraged longs, and while it greened a bit, it did not make more new annual highs. Closed south by nearly 1.5% on Friday.

Totals:
Daily record: W-2-L-2-P-3
50%

New users: Read my trading guide for my play set-ups!

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Watchers for the 1-27-12 trading session

2012-01-26T17:52:00.000-06:00

ENMD

New Supernovae scan return. A 7 day move up which closed under the highs and above the open. Volume increasing most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Friday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote change. A 3 fail of some kind may prove pivotal.

CTC

Another new Supernovae play, this one has analysis similar to that for the above stock. See those comments for general ideas on entry/exit/trade management angles. A 4 day climb here, with increasing, sizable volume that is really big now. Possible fail around 0.75 on a test of some kind. No A/H quote here.

PROT

This one has made my "new" Supernovae scan again. It has generally advanced over many days. Analysis for how to approach it resembles the above 2 plays, see those comments for details. Watch 5 for a possible top. Be aware the best way to short is usually on weakness, so hopefully this weakens early or at worst gap/craps.

DPTRQ

First red day Supernovae. Finished down more than 13% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This fairly likely given the clear red result of Thursday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was small, range nearly so, OK signals for new shorts. Stops over 0.38.

ROSG

Another 1st red session Supernovae play, with analysis similar to that for the above stock. See those comments for general ideas on entry/exit/trade management angles. Differences here are much bigger volume on the fall and considerably wider range, both of which bode ill for new shorts. It fell nearly 22% so more down side is less likely, but it still might pan out and must be watched.

ENA

Almost the same situation exists here, see the comments for the above play. This 1st session popped Supernovae also had big range though the volume, while large, was a bit less stellar. Closed red by 26% so more down side is even less likely than for the prior stock, but it still might pan out and must be watched.

PRMW

B/O scan. I like it long back over 3.18 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Thursday or the 1st 30 minute low of Friday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Thursday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Low volume on the rise, a decent sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 3 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g buy possible. 3.20+ is the key area.

Off table, watch KUTV for a potential B/O through 2 and holds. Possible scalp long on spiking up at or near the bell over that. It's basing/consolidating near there, ran up recently, and may rebound for a buy or a swing. Also watch LSI a new annual highs play that beat estimates. It could have another day in it for some longs.

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Trade review 1-26-12

2012-01-26T17:38:00.000-06:00

I got a few picks right today...

Hits:

SBSA

This fell from the gun off a gap down and crap, and was a fade on the candle following the noise one. It kept decaying until afternoon, when it advanced somewhat into the close, finishing red by over 13% anyway.

DPTRQ

Another easy win for shorts off a gap up and crap. A fade entry after the noise candle, it fell nearly an hour before rising the remainder, still closing south by over 13% today.

ROSG

A clear gap up moved north for 2 candles, then it began to falter, becoming a fade once it traded under the open and certainly when it moved below the flat line. It gradually decayed all day, closing red by nearly 22% today.

ENA

A gap up that printed the hod on the noise candle fell out of the gate, going green to red and trading under the open as well, obviously. It was a fade entry then. Bottomed in around 30 minutes, then moved sideways until the close, which was negative by 26% today.

Misses:

REE

A gap up advanced over the trigger beyond the noise candle early on, drawing longs in. It soon stopped making new highs and after going sideways it fell back to the flat line and eventually fell under it for good into the close, which was south by over 3% today. A fake out loss.

HGSI

Another fake out loss when this gap up above the trigger fell after the noise candle and seemed to offer a pull back entry close to the key level. This occurred about 30 minutes in. After rising solidly above the trigger, it fast peaked and fell back negative.While it rose back up and offered an exit point later near the trigger, it weakened in the afternoon and closed south by over 1.5% today. Anyone holding into the close lost money.

Push:

PROT

A no play push when this opened on a gap up from the lod ran north from the gun denying shorts any play. It was mostly over in 30 minutes but a strong close followed and it ended positive by over 44% today.

Off table pick ENMD went Supernovae. Some shorts would have been faked out after it fell under the open and the noise candle low briefly about 40 minutes in. Then it was all uphill, closing up over 26.5% today. Shorts waiting for a green to red would have kept flat, saving money.

Totals:
Daily record: W-4-L-2-P-1
66%

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Watchers for the 1-26-12 trading session

2012-01-25T16:58:00.000-06:00

SBSA

First red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 4.5% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is modestly likely given the average red result of Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range too, neutral signals for new shorts. Stop=7.48+

PROT

Although this advanced today 5% or less, buy volume keeps diminishing so it might still yield another down day tomorrow or soon. See my previous comments, mostly still in effect. It weakened in the morning nicely.

DPTRQ

New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed under the highs and above the open. Volume variable most days, now declining. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote change. A Pinkie, so be wary.

ROSG

Another new Supernovae play, this one has analysis similar to that of the above stock, so see those comments for general tips on entry/exit/trade management angles. Some differences are this was a 2 day move up with most of the rise coming today, and the volume is huge now. Some natural resistance around 0.60 and on its chart at about 0.63 but it may not be done. Up A/H over 9% which might mean a gap and crap top fish.

ENA

Yet another new Supernovae scan, see my comments for the above 2 plays, which this one resembles. See the comments for this picks for details. Differences here are we have a 4 day climb on increasing, now huge, volume. No A/H quote. At a natural psychological selling point at today's close. A fall fail back under ideal. Stops are usually set no higher than the high of the previous session, scaling in without too large a position.

REE

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (6.14) of Wednesday. Medium volume on the rise, which is a neutral sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed under Wednesday's close, too. The low on that day is likely too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 5.75 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. Conservative exits under 6. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote change. This is a former runner recently. Rebound?

HGSI

B/O scan. I like it long back over 10.01 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Medium volume on the rise, a neutral sign for new buys. Down A/H a tad. Exiting below 9.50 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g possible to buy.

Off record, watch ENMD for a fade on over extension, particularly on a fall fail back under 2.50 on a test of some kind. Peak volume today. It could have more, but I'm waiting for the short if and when it sets up. It was a toss up between this one and the above stock for official list inclusion. I chose the long given my other ones.

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Trade review 1-25-12

2012-01-25T16:56:00.000-06:00

I got some of them right on this day...

Hits:

SBSA

A win for shorts when a gap up near the hod fell red on the noise candle. Bottoming in 30 minutes, it stayed under the flat line all day and ended south by over 4% today.

BAS

A great easy win for longs when early weakness gave way to a morning red to green move to enter. It kept climbing all session, closing north by over 3.5% today.

LEE

The fade worked for shorts when early strength and greening tanked hard to the flat line and penetrated it for the entry. It soon bottomed and climbed again, though it failed to retake the flat line. One closing candle at the very end made it look closer than it was for sellers, with several exit points. Closed down by over 2% today.

Misses:

PROT

A gap down debut fell after the noise candle with prices under the open, drawing shorts in. But it bottomed in 35 minutes, then gradually rose, even greening into the finish, ending positive by over 3.5% today. A loss.

XCLL

Modest early strength triggered this after the noise candle by a cent and drew longs in. Then it fell hard under the flat line and for good, closing down by nearly 5% today. A loss.

Push:

ESPH

A flat open from the lod rose steadily out of the gate, preventing shorts. It kept advancing until the close, which was positive by over 4.5% today.

PACB

A huge gap up prevented longs from entering. Predictably, it fell immediately after the noise candle. Bottoming in 45 minutes, a gradual rise followed, but it still closed lower than it opened, up over 15.5 % today.

Off table pick XIN closed up via gap but ended lower than the open. Intraday it had exit points for shorts. Trouble is this seems like consolidation with a possible move higher, despite the falling volume.

Totals:
Daily record: W-3-L-2-P-2
60%

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Watchers for the 1-25-12 trading session

2012-01-24T17:06:00.000-06:00

SBSA

New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed under the highs and above the open. Volume increasing most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Wednesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Up a tad A/H.

PROT

First red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 3.5% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is modestly likely given the average red result of Tuesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was huge, range big, suspect signals for new shorts. Stops over 4.

XCLL

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 1.05) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume huge Tuesday, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Tuesday close or at least over 1.00 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Nice chart break out/holds over 1 move. OTC stock, be careful.

LEE

I like this short on over extension on a gap and crap top fish or better a fall fail back under 1.50/holds. Possible to take 1/2 position under the close of Tuesday after the noise candle, the other 1/2 under the trigger. Avoid big gap downs. Also short on confirmed weakness cues or panic dumps at any time, possibly scalping. Up over 2.5% A/H over the key level we are seeking to fade under, so it needs to test/fail 1st. Keep in mind many plays like this go on to become Supernovae scans; it would not surprise me if it hits 2 first, etc.

ESPH

Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, real down side on day 2. Ended up 5% on Tuesday via a gap up that closed below the open after 6 of 7 up days. Stops just above 0.66 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Medium buy volume on Tuesday which means it may have neutral chances for shorts. Avoid all big gaps, especially large gap down ones. No longs. OTC stock, be wary.

PACB

B/O scan. I like it long back over 4 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Tuesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Wednesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Tuesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 3.75 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g possible to buy. 4 is the key area.

BAS

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (17.29) of Monday. Big volume on the rise, which is a poor sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Wednesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Tuesday's close, too. The low on that day is almost too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 17 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote. Rebound?

Off record, keep watching XIN (see my previous comments for details) for another distribution session. It might just be annoyingly consolidating, though.

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Trade review 1-24-12

2012-01-24T17:03:00.000-06:00

I got a few picks right on Tuesday...

Hits:

TRIT

A gap down open from the hod fell out of the gate, printing the lod. It advanced but stayed under the flat line right after, but soon traded beneath the open for the fade. A weak close helped, and it ended down by over 7.5% today. This was probably lower than the entry price.

PROT

This rose and greened out of the gate, and shorts had no initial play. But it peaked in 20 minutes and gradually decayed, becoming a fade on the green to red cross late in the day. It held up, ending red by over 3% today.

INO

An easy win for longs when a gap up and go triggered early. It peaked withing 30 minutes and moved sideways the remainder, but closed above the probable entry price. North by 8% today.

Misses:

SRCH

A fake out loss for most shorts when a gap down from the hod fell on the noise candle, and continued to redden on the follow up one. However, it rose from there, not actually greening but closing well off the lows, down by nearly 2.5% today. The entry was likely lower than the finish.

Push:

JSDA

A gap up and crap from the hod prevented longs. A gradual decay followed with reddening late morning. This continued all day, en route to a south finish of over 3% today. A no play push.

VMO

Save for the noise candle, this fell, not making more new annual highs. It crossed on the 2nd candle to red for good. It moved sideways under the flat line a bit all day, closing down by nearly 1% today. A no play push.

JRCC

A big gap down prevented longs. It began to reverse after the noise candle, but it never closed the gap or triggered. Late morning and afternoon it gradually decayed, closing south by over 5.5% today. A push.

Off record pick XIN did not fall today. It opened on a gap down with the lod on the noise candle that gradually filled, denying shorts a chance. Once it soon greened, it continued and ended up over 1% today. DIMEQ went no place for buyers either, but it opened on a big gap down, so it's moot. Red by 18.5%+

Totals:
Daily record: W-3-L-1-P-3
75%

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Watchers for the 1-24-12 trading session

2012-01-23T17:32:00.000-06:00

TRIT

For details, see my previous comments, little has changed. The buy volume keeps shrinking, a distribution day still awaits. Be aware of its low float, however, such can lead to short squeezes. Fade on weakening only or gap up and crap/parabolic type moves. If it reverses on you clearly, get out, using today's high as a stop.

SRCH

Also refer to my comments from last time on the above stock. Another over extension short biased play that closed up over 1.5% today due to a gap up, since it closed below the open. Tweezer top print, stops can be applied just over that. An OTC stock, so be careful. This one almost made the list with the 1st on last time.

PROT

New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed at the highs and above the open. Volume increasing most days, now large. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. OTC, caution.

JSDA

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (0.68) of Monday. Small volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Monday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 0.63 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps or shorts. No A/H quote. Rebound?

VMO

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 15.20) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume big Monday, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Monday close or at least over 14.75 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote. Nice chart break out/holds over 14.75 move.

INO

B/O scan. I like it long back over 0.52 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Monday or the 1st 30 minute low of Tuesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Monday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Big volume on the rise, a poor sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 0.50 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Possible to take 1/2 of the position over the trigger and the 2nd 1/2 over today's close and holds after a test/perk. Early r/g possible to buy. Eye 0.50+.

JRCC

I like this long above 7. Continuation play. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. No shorts or big gaps. If it gaps over either trigger let it test/hold/perk 1st before entering. Down over 0.5% A/H. As such, an early red to green long is possible. Modest buy volume today, a good sign. Also long on consistent moves above the opening price level after the noise candle. Stops under 6.75 might do the trick.

Off record, keep watching XIN for a fall day, it could still happen with it up only a % or so today. It may consolidate near the highs, though, which could not be so ideal. DIMEQ may have another upside day on bullish price action for longs, but set a tight stop.

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Trade review 1-23-12

2012-01-23T17:29:00.000-06:00

I got one of them entirely correct on Monday...

Hits:

SJT

Bounce session accomplished when this gap up near the lod advanced early and often for the win. It ended north by over 4.5% today.

Misses:

AEN

This made more annual highs early, then peaked in 30 minutes after drawing longs in. It faded all session until the closing 90 minutes, when it rose into finish, ending up over 4% today. After commissions the entry lost.

XIN

Shorts were faked out when this fell under the flat line early. It soon rose back to it and then beyond. It closed off of the highs a bit but still up by over 1% today.

UXG

A sizable gap up means many longs avoided this one, but early buyers lost money when it peaked in 30 minutes and gradually faded from there. Rose the last hour, closing up nearly 3% today but under the entry.

Push:

ULU

Looks like a clear win on paper, but the price action sequence told another story. The noise candle printed the lod, which was never take out later. It went siedeways and then rose right afterwards, only weakening into the finish, to close down by nearly 11% today, but the initial low held. Shorts never had a clear play.

CPY

A gap up over the trigger 2 cents below the hod that printed on the noise candle fell at once, deny longs a play. After a green to red move early on, it continued to flounder under the flat line, closing south by nearly 9.5% today.

TRIT

This rose out of the gate, so shorts had no shot. A low float, so it's not surprising. It failed to redden, and meandered above the flat line before closing positive by over 2.5% today.

Off table pick VVC finally bounced from the lod for a tiny win long unless they waited for it to regain the 50 day SMA which means they also could have kept flat, since it did not get there. Up over 0.5% today.

Totals:
Daily record: W-1-L-3-P-3
25%

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Watchers for the 1-23-12 trading session

2012-01-22T14:15:00.000-06:00

ULU

First red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 8.5%+ last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is moderately likely given the decent red result of Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range big, tepid signals for new shorts. Stops over 0.48.

SJT

See my previous comments, little has changed. This reddened again, but the volume diminished, so we could be closer to the bounce session. Stops just below 17.79 and only enter on positive price action or spike ups.

AEN

Almost new 52's. Short term, these near yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 2.25) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume strong Friday, a suspect sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at least over 2 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote. Nice daily chart price correction move.

XIN

Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Ended red somewhat over 1% on Friday via a gap up that closed below the open after 7 up days. Stops just above 2.42 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Medium sell volume on Friday which means it may have neutral chances for shorts. Avoid all big gaps, especially large gap down ones. No A/H quote. No longs.

CPY

B/O scan. I like it long back over 1.81 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Friday or the 1st 30 minute low of Monday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Friday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Strong volume on the rise, a suspect sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 1.75 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Possible to take 1/2 of the position over the trigger and the 2nd 1/2 over 1.95 and holds after a test/perk. Early r/g possible to buy. Eye 1.95+

TRIT

I like this short on over extension on a gap and crap top fish or better a fall fail back under 7.50/holds. Possible to take 1/2 position under the close of Friday after the noise candle, the other 1/2 under the trigger. Avoid big gap downs. Also short on confirmed weakness cues or panic dumps at any time, possibly scalping.

UXG

I like this long above 4.98 and 5.05. Continuation play approaching recent resistance. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. No shorts or big gaps. If it gaps over either trigger let it test/hold/perk 1st before entering. No A/H quote. Strong increasing volume on the past several days, a interesting sign if we take out the triggers. Also long on consistent moves above the opening price level after the noise candle. Possible to take 1/2 the position over the 1st trigger the 2nd 1/2 over the next one. An early red to green long is possible.

Off record, keep watching VVC for a spring day session, see my previous comments for details.

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Trade review 1-20-12

2012-01-22T14:13:00.000-06:00

I got some of them right on Friday...

Hits:

TNCC

A win for longs after it moved up initially from the gun and fell back the flat line. No trading activity evident until the afternoon, when it fell under the previous close hard for the short. After some dumping, it traded sideways until the close, red by over 30% on Friday.

ULU

A hod open fell gradually out of the gate, eventually closing the gap. After reddening and yielding a short, it continued to gently fade, en route to a red close of over 7.5% on Friday.

Misses:

EPOC

Early fake out problems below the flat line plagued some shorts here. It began to trade over the gap in a hour and then really advanced in the afternoon, ending up over 2.5% on Friday.

Push:

SJT

Save for the noise candle, this mostly gradually faded, not giving bounce longs a play. It could not the initial high, printed in the 1st 5 minutes, all day. After meandering near and just over the flat line, it closed south by over 1% on Friday.

OMX

This did not trigger. It fell south early, and made the highs in the last few minutes of the day. That level was below the previous session high. Up a tad Friday.

STVI

This looks like a huge win on paper, and it was for shorts in theory, closing red by over 21.5% on Friday. A huge gap down discouraged entries. But this kept diving after opening at the hod. A no play push due to the high risk entry flat stance.

ALSK

Another no trigger, which it missed by a cent. Even that was on the noise candle which printed red. It ended down by over 3% on Friday on a no play push.

Totals:
Daily record: W-2-L-1-P-4
66%

Off record pick VVC advanced on the noise candle and could not get beyond that candle's close from there. It fell under the flat line for good near lunch and ended down around 0.5% today. Few longs would have been faked out with the price action unless they bought from the gun.

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Watchers for the 1-20-12 trading session

2012-01-19T18:36:00.000-06:00

TNCC

First red day Supernovae. Finished down more than 10.5% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This fairly likely given the clear red result of Thursday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was large, range nearly so, tepid signals for new shorts. Stops over 0.42.

ULU

New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume increasing most days, now large. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Friday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote.

SJT

Now on my official list, seems to be bottoming volume, but you are trying to catch a falling knife, so be careful. It might not be done yet! A buy on moves over the open after 5 minutes or spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. It might be held for hours on a slow grind up type of day. Avoid shorts, keeping flat on weak price action. A weak open with a r/g move may work for longs, too. Avoid big gaps up. Down, with care.

OMX

I like this one on a possible early red to green move long on a take/hold/perk off 6+. It's down A/H a bit over 1% so it might work out as planned. Any gap over the above level needs to test and keep over 1st before entering. Possible long scalp on a spike up at or near the gun. No shorts, flat on weakness, avoid all big gaps.

STVI

I like this short on over extension on a gap and crap top fish or better a fall fail back under 1.50/holds. Possible to take 1/2 position under the close today after the noise candle, the other 1/2 under the trigger. Avoid big gap downs. Also short on confirmed weakness cues or panic dumps at any time, possibly scalping.

ALSK

B/O scan. I like it long back over 2.96 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Thursday or the 1st 30 minute low of Friday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Thursday is a bit far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 3 on fails after trigger entering and 3 conquering might be prudent. Possible to take 1/2 of the position over the trigger and the 2nd 1/2 over 3 and holds after a test/perk. Early r/g possible to buy. Eye 3+.

EPOC

Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Ended red a bit over 1% on Thursday via a gap up that closed below the open. Stops just above 9.88 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Mild sell volume on Thursday which means it may have decent chances for shorts. Avoid all big gaps, especially large gap down ones. No A/H quote. No longs. 5 up days until today.

Off record, keep watching VVC for a possible bounce off the 50 day SMA @ 29. It's not as good a bet now that it fell well into the 28's, but it might yet regain the line on a accumulation print session, possibly Friday. See my past comments on this, mostly still applicable. Buy into strength only here, it's a swing play hold.

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Trade review 1-19-12

2012-01-19T18:33:00.000-06:00

I got some of these things right today...

Hits:

TNCC

After zooming up at the start, it peaked in 15 minutes and gradually decayed, becoming a fade entry late when it moved under the open. It fell under the flat line too into the close, ending south by over 17.5% today-win.

KUTV

Another win for shorts when this dumped out of the gate and traded under the open after 5 minutes. It kept even fading all day into the close, which was south by 20% today.

ENER

The hod printed on the noise candle and this panic dumped out of the gate, yielding a short after the noise candle when it dived below the open. It bottomed and bounced a bit in 30 minutes, then moved sideways the remainder, closing south by over 22% today.

OSUR

A neutral open on a modest gap up fell out of the gate, soon yielding a red to green move for a long, which kept advancing until lunch, whereupon it moved sideways and decayed a bit into the close, which was still positive by nearly 3% today and likely above the entry point for winning longs.

Misses:

HERO

A fake out loss for longs here when a clear gap down began to fill after the noise candle. It made new annual highs twice before falling back under the flat line each time. Closed red by about 1% after sideways moves.

Push:

FTWR

A no play push and an easy loss to avoid for shorts when a 1 cent gap up began to rise out of the open. Retests of the flat line held, and perked. A long rise ensued until lunch, when it began to decay in the afternoon. Closed north by over 26.5% today without shorts getting a shot.

WFR

Another easy loss to avoid when a 5 test/trigger ended right on that number, not taking it out. A gap up debut printed the hod on the noise candle, then it fell steadily from there, first falling under the flat line. Even fading followed all day and it closed down by over 5% today on a no play push for longs.

Off table picks went as follows. SJT opened at or near the hod fell yet again. It is really getting close to a bounce session, given the seeming peak volume today. The price action prevented long fake outs. The same type of thing happened on lower volume with VVC which did not break back above 29 and opened a cent under the hod, so longs were not faked out. It might yet work, but the play is less feasible the further it falls.

Totals:
Daily record: W-4-L-1-P-2
80%

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Watchers for the 1-19-12 trading session

2012-01-18T17:26:00.000-06:00

TNCC

New Supernovae scan return. A 4 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume increasing most days, now large. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote.

KUTV

First red day Supernovae. Finished down more than 21% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This fairly likely given the clear red result of Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range wider, tepid signals for new shorts. Stops over 3.68.

FTWR

Another 1st red session Supernovae, analysis is similar as for the above play, see those comments. This one also closed south by many percent(38.5%+) so additional down side may be hard to come by. No A/H quote. Stops over 0.48. Range a bit more restrained but this otherwise resembles the previous symbol.

ENER

1st red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 6% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This modestly likely given the average red result of Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was sizable, range too, scary signals for new shorts. Honor stops.

OSUR

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 10.95) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume big Wednesday, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close or at least over 10.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote. Nice chart break out/holds over 10 move.

WFR

B/O scan. I like it long back over 5 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. Down A/H a tad. Exiting below 5 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Possible to take 1/2 of the position over the trigger and the 2nd 1/2 over today's close and holds after a test/perk. Early r/g possible to buy. Eye 5+.

HERO

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (4.43) of Wednesday. Medium volume on the rise, which is a neutral sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed under Wednesday's close, too. The low on that day is too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 4.25 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps or shorts. Down over 2.5% A/H.

Off record, I'm following SJT for a possible washout bounce long. It might not be done tanking yet, so be careful bottom fishing the falling knife here. VVC is now prime for a long swing over 29/holds. The 50 day SMA is there, so on a weak open and r/g with 29 being perked off of, we might have a trade. Good luck.

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Trade review 1-18-12

2012-01-18T17:23:00.000-06:00

I got a few selections accurate today...

Hits:

ENER

A win for shorts when a gap up printed the hod on the noise candle and fell thereafter. It was an entry and win just under the open on the retest and on the flat line cross. Ended south by over 6.5% today.

KUTV

Another easy win for shorts when a gap up near the hod printed it on the noise candle. A panic dump from jump street, it was a fade entry soon after open. Flat moves by an hour in, but ended red by over 21% today.

FTWR

Another easy win for shorts. A gap down began to fill on the noise candle, and reversed just after and failed to fill. Soon it moved under the open after 5 minutes in, and was a fade entry. A slow burn down all day ensued, en route to a red finish of over 38.5% today.

RAM

A flat open a cent above the lod advanced out of the gate, printing above the open after 5 minutes, yielding a long with more new annual highs. A gentle boring climb ensued, eventually greening by 6%+ or so today.

Misses:

ASIA

If following the specific trigger, most longs would have kept out and avoided any losses here. But I also specified a partial entry over the close of yesterday on this one, and it sported a weak open with a red to green move over the flat line in the early morning. It soon peaked and headed back to and under the flat line for good. It ended south by around 2% today. The aggressive trade would have lost some money here.

Push:

IDIX

Save for the noise candle, this began to advance, and kept doing so. Shorts were able to avoid fake outs unless they disobeyed my entry rules. It ended up over 6% today on a no play push.

SNTS

This looks like a modest win on paper, but the price action in connection to the likely entry point early morning probably makes this a push with commissions or a nominal win. A slow burn down followed with a red close of over 1.5% today.

My off record plays were interesting. CBRX washed out, and won for patient longs, advancing over 34% today. AMBT gapped up at the lod over 6 advance and won for longs by over 6.5% today. AMOK KJGI STEV all worked nicely for shorts off over extension fades, the 1st one by over 52.5% while STEV panic dumped out of the open and afternoon by nearly 31.5% today. NR bounced for long swings over the 50 day SMA, but VVC had another modest red day, even with a favorable SPY today.

Totals:
Daily record: W-4-L-1-P-2
80%

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Watchers for the 1-18-12 trading session

2012-01-17T20:29:00.001-06:00

ENER

Supernovae, still maturing. See my previous comments for tips on entry/exit/trade management ideas as they are still mostly applicable. Buy volume still big, but lessening a bit. This could run to 1.50 even 2 before it dumps, so be willing to get out if it suddenly reverses on you and honor stops. Up over 3.5% A/H.

IDIX

First red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 5.5% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This modestly likely given the average red result of Tuesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range too, neutral signals for new shorts. Honor stops.

KUTV

New Supernovae scan return. A 1 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume small most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Wednesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. A/H: +2%

FTWR

Another new Supernovae scan, analysis is similar as for the above stock. See those comments for general approaches. This one has moved up 2 days though in smaller degrees. Buy volume strong on both days, but currently declining a bit. 0.50 test will be key, if it takes/holds more upside may be coming before reversal.

RAM

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 3.80) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume modest Tuesday, a fair sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Tuesday close or at least over 3.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote. Hot stock, nice ascending triangle consolidation.

ASIA

B/O scan. I like it long back over 8.99 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Tuesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Wednesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Tuesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Medium volume on the rise, a neutral sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 9 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Possible to take 1/2 of the position over the trigger and the 2nd 1/2 over today's close and holds after a test/perk. Resistance at 9 will be key hurdle.

SNTS

Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Ended up less than 0.5% on Tuesday via a gap down that closed above the open. Stops just above 4.74 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Medium buy volume on Tuesday which means it may have neutral chances for shorts. Avoid all big gaps, especially large gap down ones. No A/H quote. No longs. 8 up sessions now.

Off table, I'm watching CBRX for a wash out bounce buy, but it's up A/H a lot so it may not work out. If it trades pre it might provide a lift after some correction first, not sure. AMBT might sport early weakness and a r/g move to buy into on a 6 magnet test/hold. AMOK KGJI STEV are all over extensions worthy of the main list, which might provide a parabolic move to short into, or weaken outright/panic dump, etc. NR and VVC are 50 day simple moving average uptrenders that might be bounce buy swings if they perk off it.

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Trade review 1-17-12

2012-01-17T20:26:00.001-06:00

I got a pick correct on this day...

Hits:

IDIX

Easy as pie for shorts when this gap up and soon crap from near the hod moved sideways near the flat line for a few candles, whereupon it fell under it for good, yielding a fade play. It dropped for an hour before climbing slowly but never filling the gap. A weak close followed and it ended south by nearly 5.5% today.

Misses:

KV.A

A fake out loss for longs when a gap up over the triggers tested and held nicely from the beginning on a gradual decay. A move back over them with the triggers firing again followed, which to be fair advanced deeply and was probably profit took by many before the afternoon came with its gradual fall. Closed positive over 6% today but at least one of the triggers was so close that after commissions it would have lost a tad.

Push:

ENER

This soared out of the gate, so shorts never had a chance. It never reddened, and after peaking in 30 minutes it gently advanced, closing positive by over 45% today. A no play push.

FCAL

A gap up and crap from the hod fooled no longs, and it also did not make more annual highs either. It hung around the flat line all session, closing essentially unchanged. A no play push, obviously.

NAT

A clear gap up ruined this for shorts, especially when it advanced from the noise candle for several more up. A reversal bottomed within an hour and fell under the open briefly but the gap never closed. It soon returned to the earlier highs and moved sideways much of the rest of the way, closing positive by over 2.5% today. A no play push with this price action.

IRE

Another clear gap down fell from the hod, never triggering either. It bottomed in an hour and rose but failed to fill the gap. After moving mostly sideways, it closed weakly and down by nearly 4% today. A no play push.

AMOK

The noise candle hammer printed, then it slowly rose, denying shorts any play. It traveled sideways for hours, closing weakly right at the end but still positively by over 26.5% today. A no play push.

Off table pick NR may have been a day or so early. It opened on a clear gap up and advanced for just 1 candle beyond the noise one. Then it reversed course, falling soon under the open, then to the flat line. A weak close took it under the flat line, and it ended red by over 1% today which could have faked out some.

Totals:
Daily record: W-1-L-1-P-5
50%

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Watchers for the 1-17-12 trading session

2012-01-16T14:00:00.000-06:00

ENER

New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume rising most days, now large. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long.

IDIX

Another new Supernovae scan return, analysis is roughly similar for the above stock, see those comments for details. This has fit and start advanced since 1/9/12 when it solidly gapped up. Here buy volume has been steadily decreasing, so it might be ripening soon. Possible fail at 14.50 or 15, set stops accordingly. Less risky is to avoid any top fishing and fade only on panic dumps or confirmed weakness cues post noise candle.

FCAL

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 4.17) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume modest Friday, a fair sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at least over 3.90 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote. Aggressive traders may wait on a 4 test/hold and buy 1/2 and the other over new annual highs, but that is more risky. Exit prudent on 4 fails after the noise candle.

NAT

Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Ended up a bit over 1% on Friday via a gap up that closed below the open. Stops just above 15 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Big buy volume on Friday which means it may have decent chances for shorts. Avoid all big gaps, especially large gap down ones. No A/H quote. No longs. 9 of 10 sessions running were up days.

IRE

B/O scan. I like it long back over 5.09 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Friday or the 1st 30 minute low of Tuesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Friday is possibly a tad too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 5 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Or a bit under 4.88ish. Possible to take 1/2 of the position over the trigger and the 2nd 1/2 over 5 and holds after a test/perk.

KV.A

I like this long above 1.80 and 1.88. Continuation of momentum/Bullish Engulfing. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. No shorts or big gaps. If it gaps over either trigger let it test/hold/perk 1st before entering. No A/H quote. Modest volume on the past few days, a good sign if we take out the triggers. Also long on consistent moves above the opening price level after the noise candle. Possible to take 1/2 the position over the 1st trigger the 2nd 1/2 over the next one.

AMOK

Careful with this one. A past runner that is up without obvious promotion upon a quick and dirty check. Float size unclear so another reason to be cautious of shorting. If doing so, wait for confirmed weakness cues or panic dumps at any time. You can scalp fade immediate drops at or near the gun, but set stops and obey them if it reverses, using the previous session high at worst. OTC cheapie, another warning sign. Borrows may be challenging. Avoid all longs at this point. Possible gap up and crap which would require risky top fishing.

Off table, I'm eying NR for a a bounce long swing off 9/holds or moves above the previous close or low. Daily doji printed, up trending stock that has sold off 4 days running on lessening volume. 50 day SMA @ 9.08 which it could perk off of. I favor day trades, but some might prefer set ups that can be held a few days.

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