Traders' Library

Some additional reading...

2010-07-30T14:45:56-07:00

A Compilation of 21 Posts on Trend Days (Afraid to Trade)

Investor or Trader? (BigTrends)

Light Switch Thinking (GreenFaucet)

Stocks Correlation to Other Assets Breaking Down (WSJ)

Why the Recession Ended (Seeking Alpha)

Justification Mode (The Kirk Report)

S&P 500: Anadarko best, Weyerhaeuser worst for July (MarketWatch)

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: USD and CAD Outlook ahead of Important Trading Week

2010-07-30T11:41:44-07:00

In the broadcast today: USD and CAD Outlook ahead of Important Trading Week. As we prepare for another busy trading week that will culminate with employment data from the U.S. and Canada, we take a close look at the USD and CAD and examine the prospects for a bearish breakout in the USD/CAD pair that could open the door to a test of the parity level between these two currency majors, we continue to keep an eye on the EUR as the EUR/USD currency pair maintains above $1.30 and the GBP continues to roll vs. USD, we note the anticipated bearish breakout for the USD against the JPY, we list the Top 10 economic events that will impact the major currencies in the week ahead, we examine some of the consensus forecasts for the upcoming economic data, we highlight the market's reaction to the Japanese CPI and Industrial Production, the Euro-zone HICP, the Canadian GDP, and the U.S. GDP and Consumer Sentiment, we discuss new forecasts from Citigroup and Royal Bank of Canada, and prepare for the trading week ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: Is the JPY Bound to Revisit 14-year Highs vs. USD?

2010-07-29T12:19:11-07:00

In the broadcast today: Is the JPY Bound to Revisit 14-year Highs vs. USD? Ahead of a sequence of important economic data from Japan, we focus on the JPY and explore the potential for the Yen to re-test its 14-year high against the USD, we analyze the latest trend developments with the USD/JPY currency pair, we note the bullish stance of the EUR/USD pair climbing to a new multi-month high above $1.31, we follow up on the NZD after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate announcement, we highlight the market's reaction to the Euro-zone Economic Sentiment and the U.S. Jobless Claims, we discuss new forecasts from Bank of New York-Mellon, Standard Bank and UBS, and prepare for the busy trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Monthly Market Outlook Webinar with John Person

2010-07-29T09:00:00-07:00

What: Free Exclusive Webinar

When: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 | 8:30 PM EST

Where: Click here to register!

John Person will be having his monthly market outlook - some of you already know how John’s Techniques have helped many traders identify large market moves and profit handsomely! This time will be no different John promises not to pull any punches. John will:

· Cover some of the market sectors that best perform in different economic phases.

· Cover stocks and commodities picks that perform best during specific times of the year from a seasonal perspective.

· Show you how to use ONE of his powerful price indicators available to determine whether you should be BUYING dips or SELLING rallies.

· AND as if all of these factors weren’t enough, John will introduce you to another factor and force of trading – Norman Hallett of The DISCIPLINE OF TRADING.

As part of John’s efforts to complete a session with SOLID information and training, John has asked Norman to participate on giving our subscribers some of his powerful views on this subject to help our clients put better emphasis on the way they trade.

Well… when you have a Master on Trading and a Master of Mental training the forces are with YOU!

You've got a great trading system. So why are you losing?

2010-07-29T06:55:52-07:00

By Norman Hallett

You've done your homework. Countless hours of seeking out the right guru (or piecing together your own system). Weeks of monitoring your guru's daily trade picks (or paper-trading and back-testing your homemade system). You've done it by the book. No seat of the pants trading for you!

OK, now you're confident. It's time to put your money where your homework is.

You've had your coffee and your first trade signal is before you. Confidence high. Trade made. First loss. Not a problem. You understood before you started that successful traders both win and lose and “losing is part of the overall winning”.

You've also heard more then once that “successful traders don't win on every trade.” Moving on, still confident. Next trade made. Another loss, but this one hurt your pride a little because you got stopped out early in the trade, and then the market rebounded and would have hit your profit target if you weren't stopped out.

You double check. Yep, you placed the stop where your trading system told you to place it. You kind of had a feeling that the early weakness in the market was just profit-taking from the previous day's trading, but you're trading a system and you must stick to it. Wounded, but resilient.

After a good night's sleep and a few mouse clicks, your new daily trades are in front of you. Hey, this one looks good! It's a little bit more risk than yesterday's trades had, but look at that profit potential! With a smiling face, the trade is executed.

With a nice start to the trade, you're feeling good and you've moved your stop to breakeven, just like your system said. Surprise piece of news - market reverses - blows through your stop - an “unexpected” loss. Is something wrong with the system? Has the overall market “personality” changed, affecting your system to the Core, rendering all your back-testing irrelevant? Your confidence turns to doubt.

You decide to “watch” the next trade… I mean, isn't it wise to make sure the system gets back on track before you “throw good money after bad?” Isn't that what a conservative trader does? Trade watched. It wins!

In your head, you beat yourself up a little because you know that when you started your “live” trading, you made an agreement with yourself to take the first 10 trades “no matter what”… and here you wimped-out and missed a big winner that would have gotten you even.

What's happening?!!

What's happening is that you are out of control. Your emotions are ruling your trading. The above scenario plays out in every trader from time to time.. newbee and veteran alike.

The winning trader senses what is happening and nips it in the bud. The winning trader spend time EVERY DAY, working on “the discipline of trading”. Reads a chapter in his favorite psychological trading book, scans the “ten commandments of trading” that hangs on the wall over his/her desk, listens to his/her mental training software for futures traders… Something… Every Day… before trading begins.

There are many more losing traders than winning traders… and it's seldom about the trading system. In my career, I've come across at least 50 systems that I consider A+, yet I know for a fact that MOST traders that have traded on these systems have lost. Why? They were not in control of their emotions.

Are you?

(Don't miss out on the free webinar, August 4th, featuring Norman Hallett and John Person! Register NOW!)

Summertime Rally by John Person

2010-07-28T13:12:47-07:00

It’s getting hot here in the mid west, not a surprise it’s the end of July. That in itself is a scary though as it seems we just celebrated the 4^th of July. Boy has time passed by quickly.

Trading this month can bring some opportunities; however it generally is a very light volume trading month due to the fact that many traders and investors not only here in the US but globally take vacations.

According to the work in my book the commodity traders almanac 2011 the S&P 500 has shown a tendency to see strength lasting into early September it's interesting to note that in 2008 stocks actually posted a mild pain in the month of August from July's closing price. Moreover, the same situation developed in 2009 where we experienced a substantial gain in equities through the month of August. The question begs will what will 2011 bring as many investors traders economists and pundits debate whether the economy can continue to grow above the 3% level with high unemployment versus US corporations who have been announcing better-than-expected earnings with both top-line and bottom-line revenue growth.

From a technical perspective looking at the advance decline indicator we see that we are closing in closer to the April highs, if the equity markets follow suit that could bring the S&P's back to a level near 1140 sometime during the second half of August. In order for this outlook to show promise, I would like to see in the first week of trading during the month of August a key critical support level to hold near 1075.

Without any major negative surprises in the monthly unemployment report due out August 6 we stand a strong chance to maintain a summertime rally this year as well.

To find out more about upcoming seasonal trades log into a free webinar, I will be discussing more on seasonal trade set-ups.

John Person

Founder of Nationalfutures.com

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: How Far Could the GBP Rally vs. USD Extend?

2010-07-28T12:40:00-07:00

In the broadcast today: How Far Could the GBP Rally vs. USD Extend? In light of the recent return of risk appetite and the better-than-expected U.K. economic data, we explore the factors that could continue to fuel further GBP strengthening and ponder how far could the Pound's rally extend against the USD, we analyze the latest trend developments with the GBP/USD currency pair, we keep an eye on the EUR/USD pair's efforts to sustain above $1.30, we take a close look at the AUD and NZD ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate announcement, we highlight the market's reaction to the Australian CPI and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, we discuss new forecasts from Bank of New York-Mellon, Commonwealth Bank and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: AUD and NZD: The Assault on USD from "Down Under"

2010-07-27T12:43:16-07:00

In the broadcast today: AUD and NZD: The Assault on USD from "Down Under". With the AUD and NZD managing to break above mid-term resistance levels against the USD, we take a close look at the currencies "down under" ahead of the important economic events from Australia and New Zealand scheduled for release in the next 48 hours, we analyze the latest trend developments with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD currency pairs, we continue to monitor the bullish breakouts in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, we note the strengthening of the USD vs. JPY, we highlight the market's reaction to the German Gfk Consumer Sentiment, the U.S. Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence, we discuss new forecasts from Citigroup, Standard Bank and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

STEEL, THE MARKET LEADER

2010-07-27T09:13:42-07:00

Continued reading from from Tape Reading & Market Tactics.

Click here to read Chapter 8.

Chapter 9

Steel, The Market Leader

Watch Steel

There is a saying: “As Steel goes, so goes the market.” There is no question that X is the market leader, its bellwether. American Can, General Electric, Westinghouse, American Telephone, and a few other stocks, are also termed market leaders. They are, but the market will follow Steel when every other stock loses its leadership. This was particularly well illustrated, I think, in October, 1930, during the period of persistent liquidation. For days, American Can did not break; it held like a rock. Steel, however, led the market in the decline, or at least sagged simultaneously. I believe that if Steel had withstood the pressure, the market would have halted its drift likewise.

By the way, when you hear loose talk about “support-orders” in Steel, Can, and other leaders—when you are told: “They are going to support the market”—take out your pencil, add up the volume of transactions, and figure the millions “they” would need in order to support the market. Think in the same way when you hear stories to the effect that “they are going to run Steel up ten points.” I do not imply that Steel is not ever supported, or that powerful interests do not push Steel forward at times—for they do—but they do it when the market is technically set for the maneuver. There are no interests in Wall Street powerful enough to stem the tide of wholesale public liquidation (this was proved in October, 1929); nor have they enough money to run Steel up 10 points, when they know from the market’s position that thousands upon thousands of shares of Steel would be offered for sale all the way up. It is simple enough to sit around a brokerage office and glibly spin yarns about the “big fellows.” Forget it; if any of your informants knew them well enough to know what they were doing, they would not be sitting in a broker’s office talking to you and me.

To return to Steel: watch Steel closely at all times. Pay the same attention to its action that you do to your own stock. Your stock will probably rally with the market, if your selection has been correct; it may follow the market, or advance ahead of it; but it should not go against the trend. (If it does, check your position quickly, because when the general list does not follow Steel it is quite likely that many stocks are being sold under cover of strength in Steel.) Steel is a particularly helpful indicator because it is always active, thousands of shares being traded daily; and it never swings wildly, its market usually moving by eighths of a point.

If you hold an inactive stock (which is not recommended for short-turn trading), and for some time there have been no transactions in that stock, yet in the meanwhile Steel has reacted two or three points, it is well to “quote” your stock (obtain the bid and offered prices from the floor through your orderclerk). This will give you your “market;” otherwise, you may be disappointed when you finally see a transaction some dollars away from the last sale. Of course, if Steel is advancing and you are long, you need not feel uneasy; but it is none the less a comfort to have the “quote.”

If you intend to watch the tape constantly, it is good practice to obtain the market on Steel, the bid and offered prices, shortly after the opening. From these you can detect whether Steel is being bid for, or whether it is offered below the bid price. Let me explain: assume that the market on Steel at five minutes after 10 o’clock is 149¼ bid and 149½ asked. If you notice 3,000 shares of Steel pass soon after at 149¼, you know at once that someone has “hit the bid,” that in this block of Steel the selling has been more urgent than the buying. If it happens the other way about, with the transaction at 149¾, you will know that someone is bidding for stock and is willing to pay more than the asked price.

Watch for False Moves

Often, you will see a large block pass at a price under the bid figure, only to be followed by smaller transactions at prices running up above the offered price. Watch carefully; it may be a move to bid up the stock in order to sell another large block. Naturally, the seller wants to get the best price possible, and will marshal his movements to “make a good trade” if he can. Of course, you may notice several lots of Steel purchased at prices under the figure at which the large block changed hands. Here, if the buyer wishes to accumulate more Steel, he will endeavor to make it appear that there is plenty of Steel for sale in order that he can buy in another block at not too great an advance in price. This same maneuver may, of course, take place in any other stock.

If you are not in the habit of sitting over the tape constantly, you can gauge the market in the same manner by asking for the market on Steel at the time you happen to be at your broker’s, and then check the situation a few minutes thereafter.

I have used the word “offered” in place of the more usual “asked” of the phrase “bid and asked,” because, to me, “offered” means that stock is “wanting to be sold,” not that someone will sell if you bid his price. In other words, the whole problem is one of solving the condition of the supply and demand—or, of the offerings and demand. Analyzing the volume in relation to the bid and offered prices will give you the clue to the supply and demand.

Naturally, you can check your own stocks in the same manner. I have dwelt at length upon Steel inasmuch as this leader will give you the situation of the market as a whole. I am assuming, of course, that you will glance around the board to see if there are any outstanding occurrences, and that you will ask your broker if anything exceptional has happened in your absence.

Incidentally, Steel is perhaps the most satisfactory trading stock on the board because it always has an active market.

The Action of Steel in August, 1930

In Plates 10 and 11 is shown every transaction in Steel for the days of August 12 and 13. This was the bottom of the market in August, 1930. Steel had been declining for 14 days, from 17 on July 28. I have marked the significant action on the 12th and 13th, “A” to “I.” At “A” you will note the volume on the dips with dullness on the rallies. At “B” there was a distinct drying-up of activity at the day’s tops, which lasted for several hours. Near the end of the day another reaction set in, with more volume; however, it met strong resistance between 157 and 157½, starting with the block of 2,100 shares. Volume was heavy during the day-end tussle (“C”), and for a few minutes it looked as if Steel were starting an advance out of the danger-zone. It “turned over” again quickly, but met an important block of 2,700 shares just before the close.

The following morning Steel was offered freely, and sank fractionally until a large order of 3,100 shares temporarily stopped its decline. At “D” there was another rally, but volume again was disappointing. The volume increased during the subsequent sell-off as far as “E,” where important buying was again in evidence, which turned the tide finally. During the rally at “F” there was active bidding for stock, as the volume indicated. Although Steel did not advance far (only to 157¾), the reactions at “G” and at “H” were marked by shrinkages, instead of increases, in volume. The confirmation of the turn came at “I,” when stock was well taken on steadily increasing prices.

Referring to the chart you will see that the real support came into the market on the morning of the 13th. The selling at “E” was important, as it was a test of the buying strength under the market. When very little stock was offered at “G” and “H,” the trader would have stepped in with orders to buy. Of course, the whole market was acting similarly during this period. The market was oversold; but we did not have the sensational climax which we had had in May and June, and on other previous clean-out days, owing to the fact that there was a smaller number of the public selling, because so many had sold out, or had been forced out, before.

A Word About the Examples in This Book

I realize that the reaction of some readers to many of the examples in this book will be: “It’s easy enough to look at a chart of market action after it has passed and tell all about the signals, but it is a far different matter to foretell, as the action is taking place, what is going to happen.” This is very true; but I believe that it will be recognized, as these illustrations are explained, that the principles do work out in practice. I shall have some suggestions to make further along for those who care to practice forecasting, but who cannot spare the time to watch every transaction on the tape.

I admit that only through practice can we acquire that “feel” which sends a definite signal to our brains when important action takes place. I cannot see, however, why we should expect to find a “system” which will work in the stock market; surely the possibilities of profits for the student justify the time and effort required to learn market interpretation. If there were a system, hundreds would have learned its secret; then it would not work, because too many would be using it.

Supply and demand: that is your guide; learn to recognize which is the stronger and you will make money trading. But do not expect always to judge correctly. Limit the losses caused by your mistakes and, when you are right, let your profits run. By this method you do not need many profits to offset several losses. You will readily perceive that a 10 or 12-point profit in, we will say, a 100 share trade, will offset several losses of two points each.

And never overtrade; maintain a margin of at least 50 percent.

Click here to read Chapter 8.

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: Will the EUR and GBP Break Higher vs. USD?

2010-07-26T12:46:55-07:00

In the broadcast today: Will the EUR and GBP Break Higher vs. USD? As the markets continue to digest the results of the European banks stress tests, we focus on a number of major currencies approaching important multi-month resistance levels against the USD and explore the potential for the EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD to break higher vs. the Greenback, we analyze the latest developments with the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD currency pairs, we follow up on the anticipated strengthening of the NZD and note the bullish breakout in the NZD/USD pair, we highlight the market's reaction to the EU banks stress tests, the U.S. New Home Sales and corporate earnings, we discuss new forecasts from Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Canada, BNP Paribas and HSBC, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Update EUR/USD Forex pair: July 24, 2010.

2010-07-25T02:27:42-07:00

The EUR/USD moved out of the pitchfork channel above the 50-day moving average and has broken now the 100-day average. Indicators are oversold and we will have a short term correction now. It is hard to say if the lowest point is already behind us. We will have to see if the next down move will move past the lowest low point. It is possible that we are making an up correction wave {B} and that a last correction wave {C} will come next. We only can wait and see to be sure. That last down move would bring the Euro to the level of the previous long term correction wave [4] of the long term up move as you can see in the monthly chart, where price finds support on the 200 months' moving average. Short term we expect an extension in the {B} up wave to a level of about 1.35.

Weekly Chart: The Euro made a long term top Elliott wave [5] around $1.60 July 2008. A correction wave [A] was started, retracing almost 50% of the complete up move. Next the correction wave [B] retraced a big part of the [A] wave with extension correction waves {A} to {C}, completing wave [B]. The move down now for wave [C] made already a lower low than wave [A] and with that the wave [C] may already be complete. But, I expect that wave [C] will also have an extension and that most probably we are making now an intermediate correction wave {B} up. And I expect this correction to go up to around 1.30 to 1.35. There is room in the indicators for a further up move, probably after a short term correction.

Monthly Chart: The Euro made a long term top Elliott wave [5] around $1.60 July 2008. A correction wave [A] was started, retracing almost 50% of the complete up move. Next the correction wave [B] retraced a big part of the [A] wave, before starting the [C] wave down. Although this [C] wave made already a lower low than wave [A], now reaching the 50% retracement level and finding support on the 200-month moving average, I still do not believe that the lowest point has been reached already and that we probably get an extension of the wave [C] down. There is room in the indicators for a further move down to the level of the correction wave [4] of the long term up move. Still we must not exclude that the lowest point has been reached already and that we are starting a new long term up move.

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

S&P500 Technical Analysis Update: July 24, 2010.

2010-07-25T02:11:13-07:00

After a short term correction the previous week the index continued the up move.

Price broke out of the downward pitchfork and Friday the closing price broke the downtrend line. Short term we can expect resistance from the 200 and 100-days moving average and the 50% retracement level.

I think this will at least slow down the up move. There is however still some room in the indicators for a further up move. I expect a higher index the following days.

Both the manual and the SATS2 automatic long trades are open.

I am using a slightly faster SATS2 now on the daily chart. I am also working on a new SATS5 system expert. First results look good with higher and more reliable profit rates than SATS2. If all is ready we will be using this expert in the future. SATS5 works fine even in very small time frames like 1 minute on the Emini future and Forex EUR/USD. More later on...

Elliott wave count:
Looking at the Elliott count, we may be finishing correction wave [2], now followed by a long term wave [3] up. This looks like a very optimistic long term view, most probably to good to be true! Another possibility is that the index finished a medium term correction wave (A) down and we expect next the medium term correction wave (B) up. Next followed by the wave (C) down, with an index remaining between 950-900 for the construction of the correction wave [2] at a lower point. However, since a single impulse wave ({1} to {5}) is normally not the end of a correction wave, there is a third possibility: we completed a long term correction wave [B] up and the index started are long term down move for correction wave [C]. This would be the worst case scenario with an index target below 650.

Pitchfork:
The index has broken the upper side of the pitchfork.

Fibonacci:
Price will in first instance probably retrace to the 50% level which is close to the 50-day average.

Support/Resistance:

There is support at 1040 and 1010. There is resistance at 1130.

Indicators:
All indicators turned and are moving up again.

SVE_ARSI (14 periods) indicator:
Moving up.

Slow Stochastic:
Moving up.

SVE_RSI_Swing:
Moving up.

SVAPO:
Moving up.

Volume:
Rather low, vacation?

SVE_BB%b_HA (18 periods):
Moving up.

SVE_Inv_Fish_Stoch:
Up reversal confirmed.

SATS2 Expert:
The SATS2 expert turned green, there is a new open long position. We also have a new manual long position. These trades are shown at the end of the page. Both trades are still open.

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

The Trading Week: July 26 - July 30

2010-07-24T08:07:51-07:00

July 23, 2010 (Allthingsforex.com) – As the markets continue to “digest” the results of the stress tests on 91 European banks and ponder the future of the euro, the busy trading week ahead will deliver another mix of corporate earnings, inflation and economic growth data from some of the largest economies around the globe.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a list of the Top 10 spotlight economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to.

1.          USD- U.S. New Home Sales, an important gauge of housing market conditions measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the previous month, Mon., July 26, 10:00 am, ET.

The smaller-than-estimated decline in existing home sales last week is forecasted to be followed by an increase in the sales of new homes by up to 330 K in June from 300 K in May.

2.          USD- U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of consumers’ outlook on present and future economic conditions, Tues., July 27, 10:00 am, ET.

High unemployment and slow jobs creation could undermine the confidence of U.S. consumers as the Conference Board’s index is expected to register a reading of 51.5 compared with 52.9 in the previous month.

3.          AUD- Australia CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Tues., July 27, 9:30 pm, ET.

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy makers recently stated that they will watch very closely the debt crisis in the Euro-zone, along with the latest inflation data from Australia, when making future decisions on interest rates. High inflationary pressures should support the case for further rate hikes from the central bank as the quarterly released inflation gauge rises by 1.0% in Q2 2010 from 0.9% in the first quarter.

4.          USD- U.S. Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity measuring durable goods orders placed with domestic manufacturers, Wed., July 28, 8:30 am, ET.

The U.S. manufacturers may need to speed up production based on the anticipated increase in orders for durable goods by up to 0.9% m/m in June, compared with the 0.6% m/m decline in May.

5.          USD- U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book, a report on economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve Districts, based on anecdotal evidence considered by the FOMC members when making monetary policy decisions, Wed., July 28, 2:00 pm, ET.

Two weeks ahead of the Fed’s August monetary policy meeting, traders will watch closely if the Beige Book’s assessment on the economy confirms the Fed Chairman’s “unusually uncertain” economic outlook.

6.          NZD- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., July 28, 5:00 pm, ET.

The recent strengthening of the Kiwi against the U.S. dollar and other lower-yielding currencies should not come as a surprise since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely-anticipated to follow the footsteps of the Bank of Canada and deliver another 0.25% interest rate hike, bringing the official cash rate in New Zealand to 3.0%.

7.          JPY- Japan CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of Japan, Thurs., July 29, 7:30 pm, ET.

With deflation still posing a threat to the Japanese economy, the index is expected to show inflation remaining below the 0% level, down by -1.2% m/m in June from -1.3% in May.

8.          EUR- Euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone and the European Union’s equivalent to the CPI- Consumer Price Index, Fri., July 30, 5:00 am, ET.

After a brief pullback, inflationary pressures in the Euro-zone are forecasted to rise by 1.8% y/y in July from 1.4% y/y in the previous month.

9.          CAD- Canada GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Fri., July 30, 8:30 am, ET.

Although the Canadian economy may not be immune from the recent global economic slowdown, the monthly GDP growth could pick up slightly by 0.1% in June from the flat reading of 0% in May.

10.         USD- U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, Fri., July 30, 8:30 am, ET.

This main spotlight event of the week will bring the preliminary estimate of the U.S. GDP, which is forecasted to be in line with the market’s expectations of slower 2.5% economic growth in Q2 2010, compared with 2.7% in the first quarter.

Interview with Mark Larson

2010-07-23T14:22:18-07:00

Sinclair Noe on KFNN 1510 Financial Radio interviewed Mark Larson, author of 12 Simple Technical Indicators That Really Work .

Take a listen!

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: What's Next for the EUR & USD after the Stress Tests?

2010-07-23T12:58:45-07:00

In the broadcast today: What's Next for the EUR & USD after the Stress Tests? In the aftermath of the official release of the stress tests on 91 European banks, we examine the outcome of this important event and ponder the future fate of the EUR, the USD and other currency majors, we examine the latest developments with the EUR/USD currency pair, we follow up on the anticipated strengthening of the GBP as a result of the positive U.K. economic growth data, we list the Top 10 economic events that will impact the major currencies in the week ahead, we examine some of the consensus forecasts for the upcoming economic data, we highlight the market's reaction to the EU banks stress tests, the German Ifo Business Sentiment Index, and the U.K. GDP, we discuss new forecasts from Bank of New York-Mellon, BNP Paribas and Commerzbank, and prepare for the trading week ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: Awaiting the Major Catalyst for the EUR & USD

2010-07-22T13:11:43-07:00

In the broadcast today: Awaiting the Major Catalyst for the EUR & USD. A day ahead of the official release of the EU banks stress tests results, we continue to ponder the possible outcomes of this crucial for the fate of the EUR event that could serve as a major catalyst driving the future trends of the EUR, USD and other currency majors, we analyze the latest developments with the EUR/USD currency pair, we note the strengthening of the GBP on better-than-expected economic data and ahead of tomorrow's U.K. GDP estimate, we highlight the market's reaction to the Fed Chairman's assessment on the economy, the U.K. Retail Sales, the Euro-zone Composite PMI, and the U.S. Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales, we discuss new forecasts from Societe Generale and Royal Bank of Scotland, and prepare for the busy trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

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Bernanke uncertain about recovery

2010-07-21T14:01:32-07:00

July 21st, 2010

Is futures trading for you? Listen to Carley Garner's latest interview : http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=5842&t=3&scode=019106

The markets have been nice and choppy. For most this means there has been more money lost than made.

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke spooked the market by verbally expressing his concern over an uncertain outlook. Investors immediately hit the sell button and with massive sell stop orders working below, the indices had little chance of avoiding the slide. Also, rumors circulating the CME floor suggest that once of the catalysts to the move was a standing 600 lot stop order in the large S&P futures pit that, once elected, triggered an impressive down-draft.

Specifically, Bernanke stated that the U.S. economy faces "unusually uncertain" prospects but mentioned that the Fed hadn't used all of its resources and would be ready to take further steps to bolster growth if needed. Overall the testimony was less than optimistic but it was also less than surprising. There weren't any startlingly new revelations.

From a technical standpoint, the market is highly mixed. We have been noting 1066ish as the pivot in the S&P (ie. the make or break area) but it has also been acting as a magnet and this makes it tough to pick a direction. In yesterday's newsletter we mentioned that we couldn't be bullish 30 handles from the day's lows and that playing the other side would be a better play, but we didn't expect the fall-out that occurred. Going into tomorrow, we are uncertain of the intermediate -term direction but seasonal tendencies suggest that the markets could go lower before moving higher and the S&P failed at its down-trend line. That said, the session closed near the lows and this usually paves the way for back and fill trade overnight. In other words, if you want to be a bear...don't chase the market lower; selling on rallies might be the play but a "normal" bounce could see prices as high as 1075ish in the S&P.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com

http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Risk trade....OFF!

2010-07-21T13:59:11-07:00

July 21st, 2010

Is futures trading for you? Listen to Carley Garner's latest interview : http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=5842&t=3&scode=019106

Investors clamored to Treasuries as many of them are rethinking the "risk trade". Money is clearly moving toward safe havens such as the U.S. dollar and the U.S. backed fixed income products...particularly short-term instruments.

Most of the day's buying came on the heels of testimony by Bernanke that suggests a largely uncertain economic outlook and low inflation (a bit short of deflation) and given the proposed budget cuts supply concerns have been put on the back burner. Even if large auctions continued Bernanke reassured the markets that foreign demand for Treasuries remains strong.

All in all, Bernake's statements weren't necessarily shocking nor were they new. Nonetheless, the day's events were overall bullish for bonds and notes. Therefore we feel as though we could finally reach our upside target in the September bond futures of the mid 129's to 130ish and just over 124 in the 10-year note. Like we said yesterday: "Nobody has a crystal ball, but the environment is ripe for a bull trap. It seems somewhat likely that Treasuries could see some sort of spike high as buy stops are elected but we doubt that any large gains would be sustainable."

If you have been patiently waiting to play this market from the downside, the mentioned areas should be a good place to start.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.

Flat

Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com

http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: Will the GBP Rally vs. USD Lose Steam?

2010-07-21T11:35:21-07:00

In the broadcast today: Will the GBP Rally vs. USD Lose Steam? In a week filled with uncertainty and market jitters, we explore some warning signs that may point to potential exhaustion of the recent GBP rally against the USD, we analyze the latest trend developments with the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs, we continue to monitor the EUR/USD pair ahead of the release of the EU banks stress tests results, we highlight the market's reaction to the U.S. corporate earnings, the Fed Chairman's report on monetary policy, the Bank of England Meeting Minutes, and the U.S. Weekly Oil Inventories, we discuss new forecasts from Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Lloyds Banking Group, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Apple, Yahoo, and Coca-Cola

2010-07-21T10:47:59-07:00

The Effect of Complexity (Dash of Insight)

The Large Scale Rounded Reversal and Final Support for YHOO (Afraid to Trade)

VIX Term Structure Goes Mainstream! (Daily Options Report)

Three Questions for Ben Bernanke (greenfaucet)

Apple Nipping at Microsoft’s Heels on Sales (WSJ)

Coca-Cola: Beats on EPS, Misses on Revenue (WSJ)

The Real Yield Curve and a Double-Dip Recession (Planet Yelnick)

Apple (AAPL) Asks "What Recession?" (T3Live)