Key findings reported:

1.  The biggest text-snippet surge in the study (conducted on quotes and phrases that appeared between August to October 2008) was generated by the phrase “You can put lipstick on a pig.” (phrase originally used by Barack Obama “You know you can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig“, September 2008 and was perceived as an insult directed to Palin).

2. Cornell  Researchers report that most news flowed from the traditional media to the blogs: The traditional news was found to lead blogs discussions by 2.5 hours on average.

3. Only 3.5 percent of story lines originated in the blogs and later made their way to traditional media.

The Corenell research paper, “Meme-tracking and the Dynamics of the News Cycle,” was written by Jon Kleinberg, Jure Leskovec, and Lars Backstrom. Update findings are presented at memetracker.org.

TrendsSpotting insights:

The research aim and method used by the Corenell researchers are indeed fascinating.  But, I must raise some questions/doubts:

1. Looking at the reported list of media sites ordered by their time lag on reporting a story, I have found many non-traditional sites which might be mistaken for traditional ones. Aggregated media platforms, top media blogs (even those which belong to the traditional ones) can not be considered as traditional media.

2. Blogs might capture shorter terms and not full sentences as searched for by the researchers.

3. Twitter’s news spreading can probably change the reserach results.

However the Dunbar number represents a person’s wider network. The actual number of individuals that represents his social “core network” with whom individuals “can discuss important matters”, numbers only 3 for Americans.

1. Do social networks increase the size of people’s personal networks?

Research findings of Dr. Cameron Marlow, the “in-house sociologist” at Facebook, suggests that the average number of “friends” in a Facebook network is 120, consistent with the Dunbar number.

Image Source: Business Week

Interesting to observe here that the number of people on an individual’s friend list with whom he (or she) frequently interacts is remarkably small and stable. For example, an average Facebook user—one with 120 friends—generally trades emails or responds to the postings of only 7 closets friends. But, as  Facebook’s team reveals, social network interactions as taken at Facebook brings users to passively engage with 2-2.5 times more people in ones network (passive friends with whom a Facebook user maintains either ‘one-way relationship’ or ‘just barely in touch’).

2. Is online social networking as local as offline social networking?

Researchers at Hebrew University analyzed the messaging habits of 100,000 Facebook users by zip code & observed that the volume of e-mail traffic as a function of geographical distance follows an inverse power law i.e. the more local the sender-receiver, the higher the density of messages.

Our take :

Highly interactive social platforms as Facebook can extend to a degree (”2x increase in connectivity”) the communication outside a person’s core network.

Technology would continue enabling an environment conducive to ‘overshare‘, but we would still maintain a pattern of intimacy preferably with those who are located over shorter distance.

Image Source: Universal McCann

Last September T-Mobile launched the world’s first Android-powered mobile phone in partnership with Google & recently the software giant expected that around 18-20 phones from 8-9 manufacturers on the market worldwide will be based on the Android operating system.

Riding on the hype Android’s US market share on mobile OS surpassed 6%, its application store hosted around 5,000 applications (in comparison to Apple’s 50,000-plus) until this happened at the Computex Taipei electronics show in May 2009 :

Gartner announced Android running on devices was “snappy” & stopped endorsing the platform saying that Android is a work-in-progress. However, backed by the strong Google brand Android may be an alternative to Windows in Netbooks.

We have attempted to put in place the evidences for the hype cycle curve for Android & in the absence of a perfect measure we have relied on proxies to derive the Y axis of the cycle as ‘Expectations’ -more precisely the red trend line describes the summation of “shared interest indicator” & “market share”. We used Google Trends (US search volume) as an indicator of shared interest & Android’s OS share in US market as an indicator of market penetration & real progress.

So what can be learned from this Android graph and its “Expectation” measure ? Android appears to have had a plateaued growth to the peak of inflated expectations – followed by a quick fall since May end when its mobile OS market share nosedived to less than 1%. Possibly that’s an indication of Android approaching the trough of disillusionment.

Research firm Strategy Analytics have previously suggested that Android will be running on about 12% of global smartphones by 2012. Another estimates from IDC suggests that netbook shipments will grow from 11.4 million in 2008 to 22 million in 2009, a potentially massive growth area for Android.

Will Android find its slope of enlightenment & subsequently its plateau of productivity via netbooks growth (or smartphones) that remains to be seen, possibly when we revisit this trend again in future.

More on Garner Hype cycle here.

Strongest brand relationship was found for the airline brands where digital consumers’ brand relationships were nearly twice as strong as those of their offline counterparts.

Other key categories where digital consumers had stronger relationships than non-digital consumers included IT hardware and software (48 percent stronger), credit cards (33 percent stronger) and fragrances (29 percent stronger).

The digital advantage was found throughout the world, with correlations to internet penetration (Japan and Taiwan (+ 36%) scored the highest average digital relationship differences).

* Digital consumers were defined as those who have bought from or searched for information about an individual category online.

** Millward Brown report was compiled using 2008 BrandZ data – a total of over 100,000 consumer interviews and over 8,000 brand measurements. These interviews covered 24 countries and an average of 15 categories per country.

Introduction:

QR codes used as mobile tagging has started in Japan (2003) and since are  implemented in several fields of mobile marketing world wide. As marketing applications their uniqueness stems from their Quick Response orientation which allows customers to access real time information.

The QR code process:

Mobile users, taking a picture of the code or reading it with their cameras,  trigger an action leading to content download, a message or link.

QR Codes – Trends Review:

QR codes are offering endless marketing opportunities. Today – with the remarkable growth of mobile and smart phones – this potential can be easily implemented.

Follow the trend as it grow: see the rise in interest through Google search – world wide (since 2007) and in the US (since mid 2008).

Taking advantage of local targeting, mobile users (provided with a good motivation) can be directed to your brand ads and messages. You can bring your targets to a remarkable real time action, engaging with the brand and leading them to purchase. Moreover, QR codes embedded on packaged goods can provide information previously limited by space (ingredients, features,  recommendations etc.) As such it is an excellent real time marketing tool for retail.

Brands utilize QR codes in their marketing campaigns:

December 2005: Northwest Airlines advertising campaign (Tokyo’s streets and subways)

June 2008:  Adidas

November 2008:  Pepsi Max

May 2009: Coca-Cola Japan QR Code promotion (at vending machines)

June 2009: Speed Stick

Games:

Many games are using the QR codes to achieve a connection between location and information (location based games). In this direction, many urban games are being developed (for example: QR-Kill)

Television and movies:

• CSI New York featured QR code technology in the plot.
• Fox Searchlight Pictures were using QR Codes in its poster campaign for the about to be released ‘Notorious’

Music:

• The Pet Shop Boys featured QR codes embedded in their “Integral” video.
• iCandy – QR codes application that connects you to iTunes, Amazon, or Rhapsody.  With iCandy bands can now create merchandise (flyers, t-shirts, cards) which link directly to bands homepage or to their music.
• QR Code posters advertising UK dance music producer Grum are appearing all over North London.

Fashion:

• Instant Digital Window Shopping from Ralph Lauren Rugby
• The Lendorff Kaywa QR scarf
• SuitYourself – a fashion shopping application

Tourism:

The local information demand holds a promise for tourist initiatives. Have a look at Japan’s & Paris tourist maps, American Airlines boarding passes, playing cards as an aid for tourists in planning their tour (Japan).

QR codes and Education:

QR codes technology was already adopted for education purposes as teaching the periodic table of chemical elements, acquaintance with materials etc.

The Future of QR Codes:

TrendsSpotting believes that QR codes, as any other technology to trigger  information solutions for real time demand, will become popular and mainstream as the traditional bar code. Brands investigating this potential will learn the importance of location based needs and real time information. Here, sky is the limit.

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Comments:

1. It has been suggested that the iPhone’s low quality camera misses the potential of QR codes. Any idea if iPhone’s new models can improve this option?

2. To follow QR code news – we recommend 2d-code.co.uk. Also – have a look at Set (Japanese design agency specializing in QR codes branding).

I was happy to meet Dan Ariely yesterday, the known behavioral economist, author of the best seller book “Predictably Irrational” and to discuss with him some of the implications derived from his research studies.
Out of many insightful studies I wish to present two subjects which I believe to hold many implications for today’s business environment. The first presents the power of social norms. The second evolves around immediate and delayed gratification, and to my perception can conceptualize much of the consumer behavior observed in times of economic recession.

I. The Cost of Social Norms
“Why we are happy to do things, but not when we are paid to do them”.

Empirical research:
Ariely and Heyman asked subjects to drag circles from one side of a screen into a square.  They were instructed to drag as many circles as they could in 5 minutes (a very boring assignment). The rewards given for the task were: $5, $0.50, and zero.
Results: Participants worked harder under non-monetary social norms than for payment ($5: 159 circles were dragged, $0.50: 101 circles, Zero: 168 circles).

A real-life example: The AARP asked lawyers to participate in a program where they would offer their services to needy employees for a discounted price of $30/hour. This offer was not accepted. But, when the program manager instead asked if they’d offer their services for free, the lawyers overwhelmingly said they would participate.

Implications for marketing:

• Companies that try to market based on social norms (”like a good neighbor…”) but fail to follow through (e.g. imposing nuisance fees) end up in a worse position. Consumers take personal offense when a relationship framed as a social exchange turns out to be a market one.
• “If you’re a company, you can’t have it both ways. You can’t treat your customers like family one moment and then treat them impersonally (or worse, as a nuisance or competitor) a moment later when this becomes more convenient or profitable. This is not how social relationships work. If you want a social relationship, go for it, but remember that you have to maintain it under all circumstances.”
• If you think you need to play rough, don’t waste money making your company the fuzzy feel-good choice. State what you give and what you expect in return–it’s just business.

Implications for organizations:

• “If companies want to benefit from the advantages of social norms, they need to do a better job of cultivating those norms….It’s remarkable how much work companies (particularly start-ups) can get out of people when social norms (such as the excitement of building something together) are stronger than market norms (such as salaries stepping up with each promotion). If corporations started thinking in terms of social norms, they would realize that these norms build loyalty and–more important–make people want to extend themselves to the degree that corporations need today: to be flexible, concerned, and willing to pitch in.  That’s what a social relationship delivers.”
• “A salary alone will not motivate people to risk their lives. Police officers, firefighters, soldiers–they don’t die for their weekly pay. It’s the social norms–pride in their profession and a sense of duty–that will motivate them to give up their lives and health. Money, as it turns out, is very often the most expensive way to motivate people. Social norms are not only cheaper, but often more effective as well.”

II. Why We Can’t Make Ourselves Do What We Want To Do

Ariely conducted an experiment on his MIT class.  Students were required to write three papers.
•    The first group was asked to commit to dates by which they would turn in each paper. Late papers would be penalized 1% per day. There was no penalty for turning papers in early. The logical response is to commit to turning all three papers in on the last day of class.
•    The second group was given no deadlines; all three papers were due in the last day of class.
•    The third group was directed to turn their papers in on the 4th, 8th, and 12th weeks.

The results:

• Group 3 (imposed deadlines) got the best grades. Group 2 (no deadlines) got the worst grades, and Group 1 (self-selected deadlines) finished in the middle.
• Allowing students to pre-commit to deadlines improved performance
• Students who spaced out their commitments did well; students who did the logical thing and gave no commitments did badly.

“These results suggest that although almost everyone has problems with procrastination, those who recognize and admit their weakness are in a better position to utilize available tools for pre- commitment and by doing so, help themselves overcome it.”

Implications:
“We have problems with self-control, related to immediate and delayed gratification. But each of these problems has potential self-control mechanisms. If we can’t save from our paycheck, we can take advantage of our employer’s automatic deduction option; if we don’t have the will to exercise regularly alone, we can make an appointment to exercise in the company of our friends. These are tools that we can commit to in advance, and they may help us be the kind of people we want to be.”

TrendsSpotting insights:

Implications for consumer behavior: cutting back during recession

The buzz around the recession and consumers’ shared experiences in confronting the need to cut back on expanses helped many consumers to adopt self control mechanisms. It made consumers realize they need to follow self restrain behaviors and assisted them in finding ways to address new life styles.

You are welcome to read our previous recession research indications. A new recession review – is coming up in few days.

A Penn State researchers analyzed and followed the search sessions of nearly 1 million Web searches to detect patterns of query reformulation and create models to predict them (and by that help create more advanced search engines).

Key findings:

• The search terms in 22 percent of queries were reformulated or changed to more precisely convey the information for which the user was searching.
• Users typically moved to narrow their query at the start of the session, moving to reformulation in the mid and latter portions of the sessions.
• The assistance to narrow the query and alternate query terms would be most beneficial immediately after the initial query submission

According to the researchers “Given that one can predict future states of query formulation based on previous and present states with a reasonable degree of accuracy, one can design information systems that provide query reformulation assistance, automated searching assistance systems, recommender systems and others”.

(Jim Jansen co-authored the research paper with Danielle Booth, Penn State information sciences and technology student and Amanda Spink, Queensland University of Technology, Australia).

With this week launch of Bing, when many of us tested and compared search success – it is obvious that a smart recommendation system can be much help.

We will be waiting!

Out of the HBS study we wish to highlight two main findings concerning  Twitter users’ behavioral patterns:

1.  Twitter yields unique contribution patterns:

• A typical Twitter user contributes very rarely (the median number of lifetime tweets per user is 1.0).
• The top 10% of prolific Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweets. Compare that to a typical online social network, where top 10% of users account for 30% of all production.

2. Men are more popular than women on Twitter:

Men on Twitter have 15% more followers than women and conduct a more reciprocated relationships. While on a typical online social network, most of the activity is focused around women, in Twitter both men and women find the content produced by other men more compelling.

Continue to full research review:

1. Twitter as a social Social Network:

According to the research report – 80% of May twitter users sample are followed by or follow at least one user. By comparison, only 60 to 65% of other online social networks’ members had at least one friend.

2. Men are more popular than women on Twitter:

Significant gender differences can be outlined:

• Although men and women follow a similar number of Twitter users, men have 15% more followers than women.
• Men also have more reciprocated relationships, in which two users follow each other.

The researchers explain this “follower split”: “women are driven less by followers than men, or have more stringent thresholds for reciprocating relationships. This is intriguing, especially given that females hold a slight majority on Twitter: men comprise 45% of Twitter users, while women represent 55%”.

• An average man is almost twice more likely to follow another man than a woman. Similarly, an average woman is 25% more likely to follow a man than a woman. Finally, an average man is 40% more likely to be followed by another man than by a woman. These results cannot be explained by different tweeting activity – both men and women tweet at the same rate.

The researchers compared the results to previous research on online social networks: “On a typical online social network, most of the activity is focused around women – men follow content produced by women they do and do not know, and women follow content produced by women they know. Generally, men receive comparatively little attention from other men or from women”.

Contribution Patterns:

• Twitter’s usage patterns were found to be very different from a typical on-line social network. A typical Twitter user contributes very rarely. Among Twitter users, the median number of lifetime tweets per user is one. This translates into over half of Twitter users tweeting less than once every 74 days.

• At the same time there is a small contingent of users who are very active. Specifically, the top 10% of prolific Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweets. On a typical online social network, the top 10% of users account for 30% of all production. that implies that the pattern of contributions on Twitter resembles more of a one-way, one-to-many publishing service more than a two-way, peer-to-peer communication network.

From missing to a tentative crash – as the tragedy unfolded, Twitter turned into an ocean of emotions & well wishes for the passengers on board.

Bloggers joined in the coverage soon, but their attention was slightly biased towards bail out of the American icon ‘GM’. And if you are curious about the magnitude of turbulence AF 447 witnessed, here is the NASA satellite imagery around 02:45 GMT (via AV Herald)

Our heart goes to the families of the passengers & crew on board.