Triage In TeleCom

iPhone may exceed expectation

noreply@blogger.com (Ric aka giddy p) — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 03:37:00 +0000

According to Business Week on August 22, 2008 Apple is expecting to sell 11 million iPhones in 2008. The CNN Money forecast back in the early days was 10 Million iPhones by Q3 of 2008.

Most analysts believe that this is an optimistic figure since the ales has taken off in Europe, especially Russia where the black market is 'making a killing' on the huge resale markup. The sale has also taken off in China, Germany, India, Japan, and even Canada. There is sale of iPhones in countries where Apple has not official launch their product, e.g. Russia, Jamaica.

Unfortunately I do not have the demography of the iPhones buyers but from my simple market research one can safely say that it is the 16 to 25 age group. A recently found long lost friend told me the story of how her 20 year old daughter got her iPhone for less than $20 after trading in her rewards.... the ingenuity of this demography. This category of customers are a force to recond with owing to their purchasing power, the need to be hip and current will forge and force the market to react to their needs. The multi-touch iPhone is here to stay and we are patiently waiting for the next ingenuity, not necessarily from Apple but for the time I am betting on Apple.

iPhone on track

noreply@blogger.com (Ric aka giddy p) — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 05:01:00 +0000

According to a report from CNNMoney (http://money.cnn.com//news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200802291705DOWJONESDJONLINE000962_FORTUNE5.htm) on February 29, 2008 Apple's iPhone current holds 28% of the US smartphone market. Their sales to date are approximately 4 million devices. Apple's forecast was to be at the 10 million mark by Q3 of 2008. If this trend in their sales continues, they may surpass their forecast of 10 million before Q3.

The war starts now between RIM and Apple. As we know, RIM controls 41% of smartphone market and reported that they are looking at a 15%-20% on top of their current sale of 14 million devices for fiscal 2008.

Volume is great but the bottom line does matter for both companies. Where will this growth come from? For Apple it will be the business sector and RIM will be the international market and continue growth in the business sector. Apple current have about 5% of the business market and their drive will be to grow this slice. The business sector is more profitable than the regular consumer sector owing to the margin for business applications.

Android - From Google to us

noreply@blogger.com (Ric aka giddy p) — Sun, 04 Nov 2007 04:15:00 +0000

Android

This is a beautiful name...why? because back in the days when CB radios were hot that was my angle..."ANDROID"

My girl friend said I am so robotic and said I am just like an android and since then I used the angle ANDROID. Anyway, it is a beautiful name that Google has taken on for their phone software.

I don't know a lot about Android except it was one of the mobile company acquired by Google (see my post in October) and I really do not have much plan in delving in to the intricacy of Android software. The good news is that I hope that Google's mobile application, Android supports open-access devices in the 700MHz spectrum and is open since it is based on open source and should run under or on Apache. Now, we all know that is like cough syrup for the big software giants....oh...cough syrup is deadly for babies and young ones but in this instance it is deadly for mature software companies. Whatever the fallout with other companies I am one of those followers of Google (for many years) that hope they maintain their path as we get closer and closer to nirvana, the state of enlightenment.

Next year is the year when we see the coming together of 700MHz, open-access devices and applications, Android, iPhone...let us just say Touch, etc etc etc

Why is the 700 MHz hot?

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 03:53:00 +0000

It is hot because the payback period for investment is the primary determinant for 700MHz spectrum hotness. The Wireless Telephone and Broadband Carriers find this spectrum attractive since they are able to recover their investment in less than 12 months. This is awesome, just awesome. This is about four (4) quicker than current bandwidth i.e. 1.9 MHz and 2.4 GHz used for cellular and WIFI respectively. Why the payback period is less than the other frequencies is owing to the fact that the 700MHz propagation can go where no other frequency can go (beside TV). In addition, it is well known and accepted that the 700MHz has a presence in remote household (as channels 52-69) for many years, again, owing to its ability penetrating homes far and wide. Wow!, wherever there is a TV one will be able to access broadband Internet and we all know that TV penetration is high, much higher than Internet. This clearly indicate tremendous business opportunity for the players in this spectrum

Beside the technological financial payback (shown above) the FCC as stipulate that devices and applications operating in this spectrum would be ‘open access’ for a specific spectrum block, “Block C” which they dubbed as the public access spectrum. What is “open access”? This ability allows customers to buy devices they wish, load the software they want, and no restriction by vendors. This is huge for small and startup companies; finally, they will get a shot of competing against the stalwarts such as at&t, Verizon. The downside to the “open access” is the FCC caveat for block C. The FCC will re-auction “block C” without “open access” if their target of $4.6Billion is not attained. I hope that Google’s pledge of dropping $4.6 still stand even if the FCC implements not all the criteria they requested.
Well, we have to wait until January 24, 2008 when the FCC will begin the auctioning of the 700 MHz spectrum.

FCC documents are at their site below: http://infoserver.fcc.gov/Document_Indexes/Wireless/2007_index_WTB_Public_Notice.html

The 700MHz Frequencies – WiFi, WiMax, and Google

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Sun, 21 Oct 2007 04:39:00 +0000

Is this the end of the wireless carriers’ dominance in the mobile market? Well, it sure is shaping up as they struggle to deliver products using WiFi and WiMax to their valued customers.
This is a challenge for them since WiFi has been around in the IP world for a number of years but is gaining momentum with the advent of Apple’s iPhone, the Blackberry Curve and Pearl, and other smart devices. The users of these handheld devices are demanding better, faster, current, and relevant web services such as meaningful content, VOIP, live TV. These demands are the challenges the wireless carriers are facing while the new services providers are au fait with these value added services and the technology. Apparently, they can make the transition into the wireless world by providing sleek, sexy handheld devices that are capable of access current content on the Internet, e.g. Apple with the iPhone.

I hope this is a logical segue to the current situation the top four wireless carriers in the US (AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile) who are experiencing reduction in their ARPU – Average Revenue per User (Subscriber). Is this due to WiFi, WiMax being utilized, and therefore cannibalizing pre-paid minutes? Is has been stated that some of these carriers are also suffering from churn since the introduction of the iPhone. If this is true then there should be a paradigm shift when the take-up of Google’s wireless phone operating system, the gobbling-up of small “new wave” mobile companies; e.g. Android, Zingku, the acquisition of a slice of the 700 MHz Spectrum, and the launch of the Google phone? These questions need an answer during the coming week.

Sources: Network World, Computerworld, NanoPrism Glasses

Worldwide Telephone Users

noreply@blogger.com (Ric aka giddy p) — Fri, 14 Sep 2007 22:08:00 +0000

According to network world, there are over 4 Billion telephone users worldwide. This is awesome if one considered that there are more than 6.6 Billion people on this planet. What we are saying is that about 61% of the population is wired or wireless.

The dispersion of wireless (i.e. mobile) is estimated to be 61% in developing countries...hmmm the number 61!

Below is the dispersion of total telephone users by wired or wireless....gone are the days of saying if you are wired...today I am more than 66% wireless and by next year I should be in the high 90s

Neuter or neuter the BlackBerry 8820 is NOT the iPhone Killer

noreply@blogger.com (Ric aka giddy p) — Tue, 21 Aug 2007 04:10:00 +0000

Neuter or neuter the BlackBerry 8820 is NOT the iPhone Killer

Exactly one month and a day ago, I said the iPhone killer is not the BlackBerry 8820 and today I am still convinced that it is not the iPhone killer. It has been reported that at&t has requested RIM to disable the GPS feature in its BlackBerry 8820. (Please read my reference at http://blackberrycool.com ) If this is true then it is a huge blow to competition between BlackBerry and iPhone. Moreover, competition is healthy, we the consumer always gain.

This is not a great lost for at&t business customers since the GPS feature is neat but it is one of those options which will be rarely used while on the go.

The sad news is that at&t action (if it is true) is a huge blow to at&t and other carriers. It demonstrates that carriers are the power behind the consumer market and not the handset manufacturers. Over the last seven years carriers has been leveraging their control of the consumer market at the detriment of handset manufacturers. This is another bit analysis which I will take-up in the near future.

In closing, the lesson learnt from this action is that one should never give life to an old name because those old recessive genes will one day rear its head. This is what has happened to Cingular, by changing its name, the at&t recessive DNA in monopolizing and suppressing freedom to talk for a fare price has re-surface.

Remember Jurassic park!

Selecting a WiFi Phone

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 22:56:00 +0000

Selecting a WiFi Phone

We are currently in the processing of setting up our WiFi lab and to complete our configuration we need a physical WiFi phone and an IPA (IP Phone Adapter). Criteria established for comparison were:

The Cisco 7921 was selected as our benchmark product since we currently have the Cisco 7940
List price should be less than $250
IP Phone should be OPEN, i.e. not dependent on VoIP provider
Support 802.11 b/g/n
Support WEP encryption
Support standard VoIP WiFi SIP system

Below is our comparison table for selecting such a beast.

The iPhone Killer is not the BlackBerry 8820

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Thu, 19 Jul 2007 04:18:00 +0000

The iPhone Killer is not the BlackBerry 8820

The announcement by RIM that the BlackBerry 8820 will support WiFi 802.11(a, b & g but not n) is great news for the mobile industry. I must say that Apple's iPhone has provided the caffeine in the mobile industry by increasing the adrenalin in its business customers who loves the iPhone but cannot part with their BB....I understand that they get the iPhone for their young ones and pretend to show them how to use it. A businessperson does have an undying love and loyalty to BlackBerry and finally they should have meaningful discussion about the 8820.

With RIM supporting seamless switching on its 8820 from WiFi to EDGE is a major boost to all those WiFi lovers...I am guilty of that love and right up there with T-Mobile and the VOIP guys. I understand that you can load up to 32G on the 8820 but there is only one slot…hmmm where can one find a 32G card? This is a positive step for RIM to develop a competing business product that 'mimics the iPhone...professionally.’

Well, Motorola, Nokia and my good friends at Sony Ericsson should be announcing a nifty product during 4Q.

This is just the beginning and we the users will gain as the market becomes a tad more competitive.

FONE+

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Tue, 17 Jul 2007 16:28:00 +0000

Fone+

This the name bestowed on an incubation product from Microosoft, which allows a mobile phone to be connected to a TV, keyboard and a mouse. Other devices could connect to the mobile phone’s cradle such as a storage device….or an USB Hub with other devices….this is endless but note the operative word here is “COULD”. What Fone+ could accomplish is the exploit of the growing processing power in mobile phones. The mobile phone will access the Internet using wireless, GPRS or EDGE, or broadband.

The primary purpose of Fone+ is to provide Internet access to remote users in China where the penetration of mobile phone is a lot higher than computers. This is an awesome concept and will be a huge benefit for developing countries where the mobile phone penetration is very high relative to computers.

Networkworld reported this today that the incubation product was demonstrated by Eric Chang, the director of Incubation at Microsoft’s Advanced technology Center in Beijing, China.

Note: - the above image created by Triage-ITC using images from RIM, Targus, LG and Logitech.

802.11n - Wireless LAN

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Thu, 05 Jul 2007 04:15:00 +0000

802.11n - Wireless LAN

Apple has adopted IEEE approved draft 2 of 802.11n and will be incorporating this technology in their Apple TV and certain Macs.

Apple is not the first vendor out of the blocks with 802.11n but the beauty of this announcement is that at&t (according to cbsnews http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/07/02/ap/hightech/main3008648.shtml) also announce free WiFi for some of their customers. This is a strong sign that the next generation of the iPhone will be 802.11n enabled and hopefully at&t and Apple will be in a position of implementing a basic roaming between their edge and 802.11 via the iPhone.

If not, I am betting on T-Mobile implementing this feature for their iPhone users once they commences deployment in Germany. Please read this article at http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rp-online.de%2Fpublic%2Farticle%2Faktuelles%2Fdigitale%2Finternet%2F454975&langpair=de%7Cen&hl=en&ie=UTF8

iPhone - 700,000 Strong in 3 days

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Tue, 03 Jul 2007 12:37:00 +0000

iPhone - 700,000 Strong in 3 days

Wow! At&t and Apple sold about Seven hundred thousand in a weekend. As of today, I have to agree with the New York magazine that refers to Steve Jobs as iGod.

From my perspective he has done it again!!! We (oops, I am not but wish I was a part of Apple) did it again! Our crystal ball has given us a glimpse of the future, we created what no other man has been able to create….we morphed the iPod to make and receive calls, and we shall call it iPhone. I removed ‘the’ before iPhone to show its importance.

The Mercury News said that David Bailey, a Goldman Sachs analyst reported, “Our checks show that better-than-expected supply and mix throughout the weekend was met by a frenzy of demand, driving our . . . expectations for iPhone higher," Bailey raised his estimate of total iPhones sold over the weekend to 700,000, double his prior forecast.

Based on these two days performance I (triageitc) will bet my bottom dollar on Apple and at&t to achieve their 10,000,000 forecast well before the end of Q3 2008. My earlier forecast was Q3 2008 and after my quick calculations this morning, I am revising it to exceed the 10,000,000 target before Independence Day.

The downside; there are delays in activating ones iPhone and this figure is about 2%. Apple, more so, at&t need to resolve this issue otherwise the bad news will affect sales over the short term. And, we know what the impact of negative news has on sales.

The iPhone – June 29 at 9:40 p.m. EDT

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 01:38:00 +0000

The iPhone – June 29 at 9:40 p.m. EDT

Oh yes, I am backing Apple in that they will achieve and exceed their goal of selling 10 million of these little babies before Q3 of 2008. The last figures I checked there were over 8 million BlackBerrys are in the market and RIM achieved this feat over four years. They paved the way for the iPhone but Apple paved their own way over the years. The have a diehard group of followers and if these guys did not use a cell phone yesterday, today! Yes, today they are getting an iPhone.

I waiting on at&t (I hate writing this little at&amp;amp;amp;t…need to go to the big AT&T) to release their take-up for the day…let us say they inflate it by 10%...that’s ok…but by next month they will reach and exceed their expectation.

I read that the iPhone “…is the best new thing for a long time…” The best new thing for a long time to me was the iPod. I remember the time I saw the cute little device and those outstanding white cables running down from one’s head to … It was cool. Sitting, looking at them and saying to myself, it is just an mp3 player, but watching that thumb navigating for that one song to take you away from your troubles and into your ‘safe spot’.

At the first opportunity, I went to Best Buy and played with the iPod. I moved my thumb around, press and practiced until I was nibble to navigate the menu and playlist with one hand …brings back memories of learning to use the mouse back in the 80’s. I am a master with the iPod and it goes to show that Apple does understand us and how we use things….that has been their success over the years…easy-to-use.

I am hoping to get my iPhone soon not because Apple’s website said that it will ship my orders within 2-4 weeks….r u kidding! forget it, I can’t wait that long. In any event, even if I am not among the elite to be an early taker I anticipate using this fantastic device in the near future.

My iPhone

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Thu, 28 Jun 2007 05:33:00 +0000

It is a phone, an iPod, it’s on the Internet….yes, it is all of those but it is just High Tech and it is my iPhone. Well, not yet but as soon as it is available from Rogers.

In about 40 hours, Apple (http://www.apple.com/ ) will change our life, this time it will be the way we use our cell phone with their introduction of the infamous iPhone. Personally, I think it is an awesome device and I will embrace any device from Apple since they have never disappointed me over the years.

Apple announced last week that you would be able to view YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/) on your iPhone. To achieve the feat you need to be able to access the Internet through your iPhone WiFi connection or from your service provide EDGE service. The iPhone will stream YouTube such that you can access your social preference from this network hog or killer bandwidth social services. I am not an iPhone skeptic but I know my good friends are saying:

Let see now, I walking to Union Station and listening to my favorite podcast on my iPhone, during the podcast a reference is made to a new Rogers’s advertisement on YouTube. I quickly touch my iPhone and connect to the Internet via a free WiFi service downtown Toronto. I load the iPhone YouTube application and watch the video. I jumped onto the GO-Train and while on the GO I loose the WiFi signal but I simple switch to EDGE (since we are still working on seamless roaming from WiFi to EDGE.) The only downside with social networks is that my corporation plus most Fortune 1000 companies is blocking them. Why? Social networks are eating-up the 100Mbps network!!! They are forcing me to access YouTube on my iPhone. ....wait a minute…the WiFi and EDGE networks are just a minuscule of my network at home and back at the office…something is not clicking here….oops iPhone does not click,…they touch-based…just like in the Minority Report movie J.

That is many skepticisms but I rather say it before they lamb blast me. We should not focus on technicality but embrace the functionality and one smaller step by humanity in the advancement of ease of used and having information at your fingertip.

NXTcomm

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 04:25:00 +0000

The Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) said, "NXTcomm, is the new industry event uniting the premier information and communications technology suppliers with the world’s leading communications and entertainment companies." This conference was the first and Chicago was the luck city to host this prestigious get together. The feedback I got and from what I read, this was an excellent conference and it is a pity that I missed this conference.

A few Canadian companies participated and believe it or not our own Michael Sabia was a keynote speaker at the conference. In fact, Fobes refer to Sabia as the “...an industry visionary for global communications." I am sure about the global presence of Bell Canada, with the exception of its large infrastructure (BellGlobal) as part of the Internet Backbone.
The main topics of the conference were: IP Services, WiMAX, IMS, IPTV, Wireless Network, Carrier Ethernet, and my favorite from Verizon FTTP, FiOS. The NXTcomm group refers to it as FTTx.

What I do know is that it matters not, if it is ‘P’ for premises or little ‘x’ for cabin, cottage, condominium, castle, home, mansion, and trailer...whatever! The bottom line is that I need a minimum of 15Gbps or 60Gbps in my home.

Please read more about NXTcomm in the business media and at their site.

iPhone

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 21:02:00 +0000

iPhone

Wow! In less than 7 days, we will experience the iPhone from Apple.

This new phone/pda has a Rotating feature, i.e. I am viewing a video, mail, article or picture with the long side in a vertical position…I simple rotate the device such that the long side is now horizontal and Bang! The god dawn image rotates….there goes my expensive Palm T/X and my beautiful Pearl….sniff, sniff. Now, I don’t have to rotate the device and my head to read/view the image. My god…this is the most amazing technological achievement since slice bread.

Unbelievably, you are now able to select the voicemail you wish to listen to and also the choice of determine the order. This is awesome; finally, someone has moved this feature from the PC world (Exchange, Lotus Notes) to a handheld device. Now, I don’t have to bear the pain of listening to telemarketers, beggars (some of them are for a good cause) , eXs, etc, etc….the power is now in my finger tip and not a stylus.

Look at this Apple TV commercial which says it all. It is cool. Now, let us see if Apple has the marketing skill of converting 10% of the 8 million Blackberry users…I know I will be one of those, not the first but as soon as I dump my Pearl on eBay and Rogers is ready for the iPhone.

http://www.apple.com/iphone/ads/ad1/

Canadian Internet Usage

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Tue, 19 Jun 2007 02:19:00 +0000

During my general reading this morning I found this bit of news at http://techdirt.com/article.php?sid=20070618/095112 which is:

“NBC Wants FCC To Force ISPs To Police Their Networks For Copyright Infringement from the that's-a-stretch dept NBC Universal has filed a comment with the FCC, saying that ISPs should be forced to police their networks (via Broadband Reports) for copyrighted content that's being illegally shared. The company says that 60-70% of all internet traffic is made up of P2P activity, and copyrighted content constitutes 90% of that (he doesn't, of course, note that all content is copyrighted -- and he doesn't seem to distinguish between authorized or fair use content and unauthorized).....” Please read more at their site.

What caught my attention is that we Canadians are using less than 10% of the Internet usage in North America. I hope the charts are self-explanatory but from my academic and telecom training, it is quite unlikely we are a major contributor to the above claim. I created the pie chart to illustrate Canadian usage against the US and the other countries that they used to make-up North America. The raw data is from http://www.internetworldstats.com/

If there are any errors please send me an e-mail ASAP.

COALTION FOR WIRELESS COMPETITION

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 14:36:00 +0000

My blood went very warm when I saw this full-page advertisement in today's Globe & Mail, ROB about the myth of wireless service in Canada. I am assuming QUEBECORE MEDIA placed the ad, http://www.quebecor.com/

Bang! right on the head of the nail...it is what I have been saying for years; my son pays less than US$40 for over 1500 minutes and I'm paying more than $50 for less than 1000 minutes and I live less than 60 minutes from the 49th parallel. How could this be? We are members of the group of 8 (yes, G8) and our prices and service is equivalent to a developing country...more to come, after my breakfast. However, please check out more at the COALTION FOR WIRELESS COMPETITION at http://www.wirelessfuture.ca/

MYTH:

I will list the myths itemized in the ad and hopefully I will take discuss these myths, as seen by Triage ITC.

1. Canada has an open, competitive wireless market.
2. Canadians are well served by three national carriers.
3. Canadian wireless providers offer state-of-the-art technology.
4. Things are fine as they are, nothing needs to change.

Juniper T1600

noreply@blogger.com (Triage-ITC Info) — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 16:15:00 +0000

Juniper recently announce the T1600 which supports 800G/1.6Tbps in a half-rack while delivering an increased of 2.5 x in capacity and utilizing 30% less power than Cisco's CRS-1. This was sourced from Networkworld

Pearl

noreply@blogger.com (Ric aka giddy p) — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 02:23:00 +0000

Friday June 8 at about 7:45pm EDT my Pearl was able to synchonized with my Lotus Notes address book. This was achieved by doctor rim (his blog is at http://www.torontotechie.com/ ) but upgrading my desktop software to v4.2 SP2. This new software iq has been increased by a factor of 10% but it is lagging behind Palm's software and I would assume other PDA software that we have been using in business for many years. It is a positive step for RIM and their BlackBerry line of products.