AGRIUM INC. (Toronto symbol AGU; www.agrium.com) makes fertilizers from natural gas. It sells its products to farmers and industrial users through its more than 1,200 stores in North America, South America and Australia. The company’s retail outlets help shield it from volatile fertilizer prices.

Agrium continues to add more stores. It recently agreed to pay $1.65 billion (all amounts except share price and market cap in U.S. dollars) for 230 fertilizer outlets in western Canada operated by Viterra Inc.

It will also purchase Viterra’s 17 stores in Australia, plus its 34% stake in a fertilizer plant in Alberta. Agrium will buy these businesses from Glencore International plc, which is now in the process of taking over Viterra.

In 2011, Agrium’s purchase of 400 farm-supply stores in Australia and New Zealand helped lift its sales to $15.5 billion.

Get Pat McKeough’s latest buy/sell/hold advice on 5 stocks in the fast-moving agricultural sector absolutely FREE. You’ll learn all about these exciting investments in Pat's special report, "Commodity Investments: Fertilizer Stocks and Potash Stocks That Will Profit from Rising Food Demand." All 5 stand to gain from the long-term rising trend in agricultural prices — but not all are buys. Click here to download yours today.

Potash stocks: Agrium invests in new growth projects

Agrium’s earnings shot up to a record $9.52 a share (or $1.5 billion) in 2011. Cash flow per share improved from $6.74 in 2011 to $11.93 in 2011.

Agrium held cash of $1.75 billion at March 31, 2012, but will probably borrow most of the money it needs to buy the Viterra stores. Still, its long-term debt of $2.1 billion is a low 16% of its market cap, so it can easily afford to take out more loans.

The company is also investing in new growth projects. For example, it is spending $1.5 billion to increase production at its potash mine in Vanscoy, Saskatchewan, by 50%. The company expects to complete this project in 2014.

In the latest edition of The Successful Investor, we look at how well Agrium will be able to integrate the Viterra acquisitions. We also consider the long-term outlook for fertilizer stocks. We conclude with our clear buy-sell-hold advice on the stock.

COMMENTS PLEASE:

Agricultural stocks have become a big “theme” in investing due to the need of a growing global population for food. Do you invest in stocks because they seem to be riding a theme or trend? Let us know what you think in the comments section below. Click here.

Pat McKeough responds to many personal questions on specific stocks and other investment topics from the members of his Inner Circle. Every week, his comments and recommendations on a selection of the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle members. And each week, we offer you one of the highlights from these Q&A sessions.

Last week, one member asked about one of Canada’s more intriguing commodity investments—a high-yielding stock that supplies chemicals to the pulp and paper industry and shipping services to the oil and gas industry.

Q: Pat: What do you think about Canexus Corp.? Thanks.

A: Canexus Corp. (symbol CUS on Toronto; www.canexus.ca), produces sodium-chlorate and chlor-alkali products, largely for the pulp and paper and water-treatment industries.

The company’s five plants—four in Canada and one in Brazil—aim to use nearby low-cost electricity and transportation facilities to cut their production and delivery costs. Canexus also provides “transloading” services (transfers of oil and gas by-products, such as butane, from railcars to trucks) to the oil and gas industry from its terminal at Bruderheim, Alberta.

Canexus was formerly a division of Nexen Inc. (symbol NXY on Toronto). It began trading as a separate entity, and as an income trust, on August 18, 2005, at $10 per unit. Canexus converted to a conventional corporation in July 2011.

Commodity investments: Canexus completes ambitious series of plant expansions

In the three months ended September 30, 2011, Canexus’ revenue rose 17.0%, to $139.3 million from $119.0 million a year earlier. Cash flow per share was $0.20 in the latest quarter.

A comparative year-earlier figure is not available because the company converted from an income trust. Canexus’ long-term debt of $414.6 million is a manageable 45.0% of its $922.2-million market cap.

The company has completed a number of plant expansions over the last 18 months. These should add to its cash flow in the near term. It now expects to produce cash flow per share of about $0.73 this year.

The shares trade at 10.6 times that estimate. Canexus pays an annual dividend of $0.55 with a high 6.8% yield.

In the latest Inner Circle Q&A, Pat looks at whether Canexus can continue to increase its revenue and cash flow with the help of a sustained economic recovery and whether it can sustain its high dividend yield. He concludes with his clear buy-hold-sell advice.

Inner Circle members see Pat’s analysis and recommendations on the stocks that other members have asked about in each week’s Inner Circle Q&A. You can view it immediately when you become a member of this unique investment group. You will get Pat McKeough’s answers to your personal investment questions, full access to our members-only Inner Circle website, and many other membership privileges. Click here to get started right away.

(Note: If you are a current member of the Inner Circle, please click here to view Pat’s recommendation. Be sure to log in first.)

DEVON ENERGY CORP. (New York symbol DVN; www.dvn.com) is one of the largest U.S.-based oil and natural-gas explorers and producers. Its production mix is 65% gas and 35% oil.

In May 2011, Devon completed the sale of its Brazilian operations for $3.2 billion. It has now sold all of its international and Gulf of Mexico properties, which it saw as risky and expensive to develop.

In all, the company received over $8 billion in after-tax proceeds from these sales. It’s using these funds to buy back shares, purchase properties and pay down debt. So far, it has bought back $3.5 billion of its shares. Its long-term debt is $6.0 billion, but that’s just. 20.7% of its $29.0-billion market cap. The company holds cash of $7.1 billion, or $17.27 a share.

As well, Devon recently sold a one-third interest in five shale oil and gas fields to giant Chinese state-owned petroleum and chemical company Sinopec (symbol SNP on New York) for $900 million.

Get Pat McKeough’s latest buy/sell/hold advice on 5 stocks in the fast-moving agricultural sector absolutely FREE. You’ll learn all about these exciting investments in Pat's special report, "Commodity Investments: Fertilizer Stocks and Potash Stocks That Will Profit from Rising Food Demand." All 5 stand to gain from the long-term rising trend in agricultural prices — but not all are buys. Click here to download yours today.

Energy stocks: Devon sees daily production rise by 10%

In the three months ended December 31, 2011, Devon’s daily production averaged 680,400 barrels of oil equivalent, up 10.0% from a year earlier. Cash flow per share rose 3.2%, to $3.91 from $3.79.

Devon is now focused on its North American properties, which include conventional production, shale oil in Texas and oil sands in Alberta. The company will spend as much as $5.9 billion to explore and develop its properties this year.

The shares trade at 5.7 times the company’s forecast 2012 cash flow of $12.55 a share. Devon has raised its dividend by 17.6%, and now yields 1.0%.

In the latest edition of Stock Pickers Digest, we examine whether Devon can keep growing at its present rate and assess the impact of its shale oil and gas deal with China’s state-owned energy company. We conclude with our clear buy-hold-sell advice.

If you’re looking for stocks with the potential for gains of 50% or more in 6 months or less, you should subscribe to Stock Pickers Digest.

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Saskatchewan Wheat Pool was a farmers co-operative until it became a public company in 1996. It changed its name to Viterra in 2007 after it bought Agricore United for $1.3 billion. In 2009, Viterra bought Australian grain handler ABB Grain for $1.4 billion.

In its 2011 fiscal year, which ended October 31, 2011, Viterra’s revenue jumped 42.8%, to $11.8 billion from $8.2 billion. Earnings per share rose 82.1%, to $0.71 from $0.39. Higher crop shipments and grain prices were the main reasons for the gains.

Viterra should benefit from an expected rise in Canadian and Australian crop yields in 2012, as well as the end of the Canadian Wheat Board’s monopoly on western Canadian wheat and barley sales. In addition. its Australian operations’ sales to Asia continue to rise.

The company’s growth and profitability depends on crop conditions and harvests, which vary from year to year. However, global food production and consumption is rising. Canadian and Australian products, with their reputation for quality and safety, will benefit.

Viterra trades at 14.0 times this year’s forecast earnings of $0.72 a share. The company just raised its dividend by 50%, and now yields 1.5%. We never recommend a stock just for its takeover prospects. But acquiring Viterra might be of interest to a global food giant such as Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge or ConAgra.

Viterra is a buy.

Cimarex’s properties are in the Mid-Continent region of the U.S., which includes Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas; the Permian Basin of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico; and the Texas Gulf Coast.

In the three months ended December 31, 2011, Cimarex’s production averaged 601.4 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day (including oil). That’s down slightly from 604.5 million cubic feet a year earlier. The company did not offset natural declines at its Gulf Coast wells with new production.

Cimarex’s cash flow per share fell 3.2%, to $3.61 from $3.73, due to the lower production and lower gas prices.

Cimarex trades at 7.4 times its forecast 2012 cash flow of $11.10 a share. The company’s long-term debt of $405 million is a low 5.8% of its market cap.

To increase its production, Cimarex will spend as much as $1.6 billion on exploration and development this year. It will balance its drilling between its lower-risk Mid-Continent and Permian Basin properties and its higher-risk Gulf Coast projects.

Cimarex is a buy.

DEVON ENERGY CORP. $71.70 (New York symbol DVN; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (405-235-3611; www.dvn.com; Shares outstanding: 403.9 million; Market cap: $29.0 billion; Dividend yield: 1.0%) is one of the largest U.S.-based oil and natural-gas explorers and producers. Its production mix is 65% gas and 35% oil.

In May 2011, Devon completed the sale of its Brazilian operations for $3.2 billion. It has now sold all of its international and Gulf of Mexico properties, which it saw as risky and expensive to develop.

In all, the company received over $8 billion in after-tax proceeds from these sales. It’s using these funds to buy back shares, purchase properties and pay down debt. So far, it has bought back $3.5 billion of its shares. Its long-term debt is $6.0 billion, but that’s just 20.7% of its $29.0-billion market cap. The company holds cash of $7.1 billion, or $17.27 a share. As well, Devon recently sold a one-third interest in five shale oil and gas fields to giant Chinese state-owned petroleum and chemical company Sinopec (symbol SNP on New York) for $900 million. In addition, Sinopec will pay up to 70% of Devon’s share of the development costs at the five fields, up to $1.6 billion

In the three months ended December 31, 2011, Devon’s daily production averaged 680,400 barrels of oil equivalent, up 10.0% from a year earlier. Cash flow per share rose 3.2%, to $3.91 from $3.79.

Devon is now focused on its North American properties, which include conventional production, shale oil in Texas and oil sands in Alberta. The company will spend as much as $5.9 billion to explore and develop its properties this year.

The shares trade at 5.7 times the company’s forecast 2012 cash flow of $12.55 a share. Devon has raised its dividend by 17.6%, and now yields 1.0%.

Devon Energy is a buy.

Chesapeake will now shift the focus of its drilling to oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are broken down into ethane, propane and butane and sold to a variety of customers. For example, ethane is used to make a host of everyday products, like grocery and garbage bags, toys, medical tubing and so on. NGLs are typically priced in relation to crude oil.

Chesapeake Energy is still a buy.

Pat McKeough responds to many personal questions on specific stocks and other investing topics from the members of his Inner Circle. Every week, his comments and recommendations on a selection of the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle members. And every Friday, we offer you one of the highlights from these Q&A sessions.

This week, one Inner Circle member asked about one of Canada’s fast-growing energy stocks. Pat assesses the prospects of a company that has seen its revenues climb as it supplies clients in the shale gas industry.

Q: Pat: What is your recommendation on Poseidon Concepts? Thank you.

A: Poseidon Concepts (symbol PSN on Toronto; www.poseidonconcepts.com) rents its fluid-handling tanks to over 100 customers in the oil and gas industry.

In November 2011, Open Range Energy changed its name to Poseidon Concepts after it handed out shares of its oil and gas production interests to its shareholders in November 2011. This new company retained the Open Range Energy name and Toronto symbol ONR.

Poseidon kept the tank rental business and began trading on Toronto under the symbol PSN.

Shale oil and gas producers rent Poseidon’s tanks to hold fracturing fluid, which they use to break apart the rock and release the oil and gas.

Poseidon designed the tanks, but other companies make them. The company now rents about 240 of its tank systems across North America. It believes that its large tanks are more efficient than competing models because they can hold much more fracturing fluid (up to 41,000 barrels), are easier to transport and heat the fluid less expensively.

Poseidon’s tanks are also a safer alternative to the lined pits that oil and gas producers often use to store fracturing fluids for large jobs; these pits are now coming under increasing regulatory and environmental scrutiny.

Energy stocks: Poseidon plans to expand tank fleet

In the three months ended September 30, 2011, Poseidon (then the combined Poseidon and Open Range) reported revenue of $31.8 million, up sharply from $9.4 million from a year earlier.

Oil and gas producers supplied $11.3 million of the company’s revenue in the latest quarter, up from $9.8 million a year earlier. The jump is the result of the company’s expansion of its tank fleet from just 25 units at the start of 2011. Earnings rose to $0.22 a share from $0.02 a share. Poseidon’s total debt on September 30 was a low $59.9 million.

The company aims to grow its tank fleet to 400 by mid-2012. This will raise its total fleet-wide storage capacity to 11 million barrels from six million barrels on December 31, 2011.

Poseidon has just issued 6.3 million new shares at $13 each to raise $82.5 million. It will use the proceeds to pay down debt and build more tanks.

The company is forecast to report earnings of $1.22 a share in 2012. The stock trades at 12.7 times that estimate. Poseidon pays a monthly dividend of $0.09 a share, for a high 7.0% yield.

In the latest Inner Circle Q&A, Pat looks at whether Poseidon can continue to be successful in managing its rapid growth and whether it can sustain its high dividend yield. He then sums up with his clear buy-hold-sell advice.

Inner Circle members see Pat’s analysis and recommendations on the stocks that other members have asked about in each week’s Inner Circle Q&A. You can view it immediately when you become a member of this unique investment group. You will get Pat McKeough’s answers to your personal investment questions, full access to our members-only Inner Circle website, and many other membership privileges. Click here to get started right away.

(Note: If you are a current member of the Inner Circle, please click here to view Pat’s recommendation. Be sure to log in first.)

Enbridge has not said which oil companies have committed to the pipeline, but this group likely includes Suncor, Imperial Oil and Cenovus.

SUNCOR ENERGY INC. $35 (Toronto symbol SU; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 1.6 billion; Market cap: $56.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.3; Dividend yield: 1.3%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.suncor.com) became Canada’s largest integrated oil company in 2009, when it merged with Petro-Canada. It gets 60% of its production from its oil sands projects in Alberta; the remaining 40% is conventional oil and natural gas. Suncor also operates four refineries and 1,500 gas stations under the Petro-Canada banner.

Thanks to a 27.5% jump in its average realized oil price, Suncor’s earnings rose 12.4% in 2011, to $4.3 billion from $3.8 billion in 2010.

Earnings per share rose 9.9%, to $2.67 from $2.43, on more shares outstanding. If you exclude unusual items, such as gains and losses on asset sales, earnings per share would have jumped 115.0%, to $3.59 from $1.67. Cash flow per share rose 46.0%, to $6.16 from $4.22.

Suncor’s revenue rose 22.0% in 2011, to $39.8 billion from $32.6 billion, on higher oil prices and a 6.6% jump in oil sands production, to 339,300 barrels a day from 318,200 in 2010.

However, the company’s overall daily output fell 11.2%, to 546,000 barrels from 615,100 barrels. That’s largely because the civil war in Libya forced Suncor to shut down its operations in that country. The closure cut the company’s conventional oil and natural gas production by 30.4%.

Suncor and its joint venture partner have now restarted production at three of the five oil fields they operate in Libya. These fields are now producing about 30,000 barrels a day. Suncor hopes its Libyan operations will return to full production sometime in 2012.

The stock trades at 10.7 times the $3.26 a share that Suncor will likely earn in 2012. It also trades at 5.1 times the company’s likely 2012 cash flow of $6.90 a share.

Suncor is a buy.

IMPERIAL OIL LTD. $48 (Toronto symbol IMO; Shares outstanding: 847.6 million; Market cap: $40.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 1.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.imperialoil.ca) is Canada’s third-largest publicly traded oil company, after Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. Imperial is a 69.6%-owned subsidiary of U.S.-based ExxonMobil Corp. (New York symbol XOM).

Higher oil prices pushed up Imperial’s earnings by 52.5% in 2011, to $3.4 billion, or $3.95 a share. In 2010, it earned $2.2 billion, or $2.59 a share. Revenue rose 22.4%, to $30.7 billion from $25.1 billion. Cash flow per share rose 33.0%, to $4.70 from $3.53.

Imperial gets most of its oil from its Cold Lake oil sands project in Alberta. In 2011, Cold Lake’s daily production rose 11.1%, to a record 160,000 barrels from 144,000 barrels in 2010. That offset lower production of conventional oil and natural gas.

In all, Imperial produced an average of 297,000 barrels of oil equivalent (including natural gas) in 2011, up 1.0% from 294,000 barrels in 2010.

The company now plans to spend $2 billion to expand Cold Lake. That will increase its daily production by 40,000 barrels by the end of 2014. At the same time, Imperial is moving ahead with its Kearl oil sands project in Alberta. Imperial owns 71% of Kearl. ExxonMobil owns the remaining 29%.

Kearl’s first phase is now 87% complete. When it begins operating in late 2012, this phase will produce 110,000 barrels a day (Imperial’s share is 78,100 barrels). Imperial is responsible for $7.7 billion of the $10.9-billion cost.

Kearl’s second phase, which will cost $8.9 billion (Imperial’s share is $6.3 billion) will add 78,100 barrels to the company’s daily production by late 2015.

Imperial’s strong balance sheet will help it fund these projects. Its total debt of $1.2 billion is a low 3% of its market cap. The company also holds cash of $1.2 billion, or $1.42 a share.

The stock trades at a reasonable 13.4 times Imperial’s likely 2012 earnings of $3.59 a share, and 10.2 times its projected cash flow of $4.70 a share. Imperial also recently raised its quarterly dividend by 9.1%, to $0.12 a share from $0.11. The new annual rate of $0.48 yields 1.0%.

Imperial Oil is a buy.

CENOVUS ENERGY INC. $38 (Toronto symbol CVE; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 754.3 million; Market cap: $28.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.8; Dividend yield: 2.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; www.cenovus.com) operates three oil sands projects in Alberta and one in Saskatchewan.

Cenovus ships the heavy bitumen from these properties to refineries in Illinois and Texas. U.S.-based ConocoPhillips (New York symbol COP) owns 50% of the refineries, as well as 50% of Cenovus’s main Foster Creek and Christina Lake oil sands projects in Alberta.

Cenovus gets about half of its output from the oil sands. Conventional oil and natural gas wells supply the other half.

The company continues to expand Foster Creek and Christina Lake. It plans to spend $3.1 billion to $3.4 billion on these and other projects in 2012. That’s up 23% from its 2011 capital expenditures.

Cenovus’s 2012 cash flow should be between $2.9 billion to $3.5 billion, so it can easily afford these costs. The company also plans to sell $100 million to $150 million of non-core assets this year.

These investments will push up Cenovus’s 2012 production to between 155,000 and 171,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (including natural gas) from 135,000 barrels in 2011.

Cenovus’s expansion plans will also help it meet its goal of producing 500,000 barrels a day, including 400,000 barrels from the oil sands, by the end of 2021.

The company’s balance sheet is strong: Its long-term debt of $3.6 billion is a low 13% of its market cap. It also holds cash of $358.0 million, or $0.47 a share.

The company still plans to raise its dividend in 2012; the current annual rate of $0.80 a share yields 2.1%.

The stock seems expensive at 22.9 times the $1.66 a share that Cenovus probably earned in 2011. However, the company’s 2012 earnings should rise to $2.11 a share. That gives the stock a more reasonable p/e ratio of 18.0. Cenovus also trades at 8.8 times its likely 2012 cash flow of $4.34 a share.

Cenovus is a buy.

In 2011, the company agreed to sell $3.5 billion of non-essential assets (all amounts except share price and market cap in U.S. dollars).

The sales are part of Encana’s plan to focus on its main gas-producing properties in Alberta, B.C., Wyoming, Michigan, Colorado and Louisiana. The company will also use the proceeds to maintain its quarterly dividend of $0.20 U.S. a share, for a 4.0% annualized yield.

Encana may also put some of this cash toward its proposed liquefied natural gas terminal in Kitimat, B.C. Encana would own 30% of this terminal; Apache Corp. (New York symbol APA) would own 40% and EOG Resources Inc. (New York symbol EOG) would own the remaining 30%. Encana hasn’t said how much this terminal would cost. The company and its partners will decide whether or not they will go ahead with the Kitimat terminal by the end of 2012.

Rising shale gas inventories and unusually warm winter weather have pushed down gas prices. In response, Encana aims to triple its production of natural gas liquids (NGLs), such as ethane, propane and butane, by 2015. NGL prices tend to mirror the price of oil, which has remained high due to instability in the Middle East and rising Chinese demand.

Due to depressed natural gas prices, Encana’s shares trade at just 3.5 times the company’s projected 2012 cash flow of $5.50 U.S. a share.

However, many gas producers are cutting their production. That should help stabilize prices. Moreover, Encana has hedged 58% of its 2012 gas production at $5.80 per thousand cubic feet. That’s 137.7% more than the current price of $2.44.

Encana is a buy.

Pat McKeough responds to many personal questions on specific stocks and other investing topics from the members of his Inner Circle. Every week, his comments and recommendations on a selection of the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle members. And every Friday, we offer you one of the highlights from these Q&A sessions.

This week, two junior commodity stocks were the subject of a question from one of our Inner Circle members: one is a drilling company with interests in North America, Panama and Albania; and the other is involved in oil exploration in Africa.

Q: Hi Pat: Because of you and your team’s advice, my portfolio has actually shown a gain in the three years of this turbulent market. In some cases I’m up 600%!

I would like your opinion on Africa Oil and Cabo Drilling. As always, your pearls of wisdom are very insightful and greatly appreciated. You are the standard by which the competition is judged! Cheers and thank you.

A: Africa Oil, (symbol AOI on Toronto; www.africaoilcorp.com), is a Canadian oil and gas exploration company with interests in properties in Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and Mali.

Africa Oil’s east African properties are in the same geological formation as the Albertine Graben, where two U.K.-based firms, Heritage Oil and Tullow Oil, made major discoveries in neighbouring Uganda.

In addition, Tullow Oil has a joint venture with Africa Oil to develop some of its properties in Kenya and Ethiopia. Tullow Oil is the leading independent oil producer in Africa, with two major projects in Ghana and Uganda. The company also has assets in Europe, southern Asia and South America.

Africa Oil’s partnership with Tullow Oil and its high cash balance give it speculative appeal, but it operates in countries with very high political risk. As well, it is in the very early stages of exploration.

Commodity stocks: Cabo drills for major clients like Teck and Goldcorp

Cabo Drilling, (symbol CBE on Toronto www.cabo.ca), is a B.C.-based company that provides mining and specialty drilling services through divisions in Canada, the U.S., Panama and Albania.

Right now, Cabo has 100 drilling rigs in operation. Clients include Teck Resources and Goldcorp.

In the three months ended September 30, 2011, Cabo’s revenue rose 64.5%, to $16.9 million from $10.3 million a year earlier. It earned $0.02 a share, compared to nil per share in the year-ago quarter.

Cabo Drilling continues to win new contracts, particularly a deal with Goldcorp, but its high debt adds a lot of risk.

In the latest Inner Circle Q&A, Pat looks at the prospects—and risks—of both Cabo Drilling and Africa Oil as investments. He then sums up with his clear buy-hold-sell advice on both stocks.

Inner Circle members see Pat’s analysis and recommendations on the stocks that other members have asked about in each week’s Inner Circle Q&A. You can view it immediately when you become a member of this unique investment group. You will get Pat McKeough’s answers to your personal investment questions, full access to our members-only Inner Circle website, and many other membership privileges. Click here to get started right away.

(Note: If you are a current member of the Inner Circle, please click here to view Pat’s recommendation. Be sure to log in first.)