Discussion

The active sunspot region called AR1748 unleashed an M-class solar flare at 0858 UT on Friday, May 17th. While this is not the strongest flare that we’ve seen from AR1748, it actually may be the most geoeffective as this sunspot is now facing the Earth more directly than before, and the explosion might have hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) towards the Earth.

Another CME that was sent into space earlier this week by an X1-flare from the same sunspot region might deliver a glancing blow to the Earth’s magnetic field later tonight. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should be on alert for northern lights later tonight.

Stay tuned.

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds gradually give way today to mostly sunny skies, windy and cool, highs in the low-to-mid 60’s

Tonight

Becoming mostly cloudy, mild, fog possible late, breezy, lows in the upper 50’s

Saturday

Early morning low clouds and fog then becoming mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, upper 50’s

Sunday

Early low clouds and fog possible then mostly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Monday

Mostly sunny skies, pleasant, low 70’s

Tuesday

Early patchy fog possible then mainly sunny skies, cooler, upper 60’s

Wednesday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, mid 60’s

Discussion

The onshore flow of air will continue for the next few days keeping the region on the cool side of normal with a continuation of late night and early morning low clouds, fog and perhaps even some drizzle along coastal regions. High pressure builds over the region later this weekend and a brief warming trend is likely by early next week as offshore flow develops in the region. However, the marine layer will re-establish itself by the middle of next week and cooler temperatures will return to the region.

Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGUFJ-4TiIE

Discussion

The active sunspot region called AR1748 has unleashed four X-class solar flares in the past few days and it might not be finished yet as it continues to grow and has a magnetic field that harbors energy for more X-class solar flares according to NASA scientists. (Other solar flare categories include M-class, which are medium strength and C-class which are small and relatively weak). This particular sunspot region has actually produced more X-flares than every other sunspot of the past year combined.

The last of the four solar flares which occurred early yesterday did produce a coronal mass ejection (CME) that may deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Friday, May 17th. As a result, northern lights are possible across northern latitudes when the CME reaches the Earth’s upper atmosphere on Friday. The threat for more X-flares continues from AR1748 as it now moves into a location that puts the Earth directly in the line of fire. NOAA forecasters put the odds of another X-flare at 60%. The largest X-class solar flare in this particular solar cycle (#24) was an X6.9 that occurred on August 9th, 2011.

Stay tuned.

Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8HO2ELAhrw

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and fog then gradually becoming partly sunny, breezy, highs in the low-to-mid 60’s

Tonight

Becoming mostly cloudy, mild, breezy, lows near 60 degrees

Friday

Early morning low clouds, fog and perhaps some drizzle then becoming partly sunny, cool, low 60’s

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, upper 50’s

Saturday

Early low clouds and fog possible then mostly sunny skies, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Sunday

Early low clouds and fog possible then mostly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Monday

Mainly sunny skies, warmer, low-to-mid 70’s

Tuesday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, pleasant, near 70

Discussion

The onshore flow of air will continue for the next few days keeping the region on the cool side of normal with a continuation of late night and early morning low clouds, fog and perhaps drizzle along coastal regions. High pressure builds over the region later this weekend and a warming trend is likely by early next week as offshore flow develops in the region.

Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxFj57FYNnA

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and fog; otherwise, partly sunny skies, cool, highs in the mid 60’s

Tonight

Becoming mostly cloudy, mild, breezy, some fog possible late, lows near 60 degrees

Thursday

Early morning low clouds and fog then becoming partly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, upper 50's

Friday

Early low clouds and fog possible then mostly sunny skies, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Saturday

Early low clouds and fog possible then mostly sunny skies, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Sunday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, not as cool, near 70

Monday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, milder, mid 70’s

Discussion

A marine flow of air will continue for the next few days keeping the region on the cool side of normal with a continuation of late night and early morning low clouds and fog along coastal regions. High pressure builds over the region this weekend and a warming trend is likely by early next week.

An update on the sun - there has been a fourth "X-class" solar flare from the very active sunspot region called AR1748 that occurred earlier today. Before the week began, the sun had not unleashed any X-class flares, but now there have been four in just the past few days.

Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKQUZuEUxsE

Discussion

Solar activity has surged in the past two days as a large sunspot region officially called AR1748 has actually generated three different solar flares classified by NASA as “X-class” eruptions, the most intense type of flare, and the strongest flares of the year so far. (Other solar flare categories include M-class, which are medium strength and C-class which are small and relatively weak). Specifically, in just the past two days, there have been three solar flares with increasing strength classified as X1.7, X2.8 and X3.2, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity. The largest X-class solar flare in this particular solar cycle (#24) was an X6.9 that occurred on August 9th, 2011.

Thus far, this recent surge in solar activity has occurred while the Earth was not in the direct line of fire, but this particular sunspot region is now rotating into that direction. Additionally, it appears another sunspot region is about to rotate into view from the sun’s eastern limb and there is reason to believe that it is quite an active region as well. All of these flares have produced strong flashes of extreme ultraviolet radiation and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) has captured video which shows that the explosions produced coronal mass ejections (CMEs) blasting plenty of plasma material into space. These active sunspot regions will continue to be monitored over the next few days here at thesiweather.com. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours or so.

Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsvQhBRKPCw

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and fog then gradually becoming partly sunny, breezy, cool, highs in the upper 60's

Tonight

Becoming mostly cloudy, mild, breezy, some fog possible late, lows near 60 degrees

Wednesday

Early morning low clouds and fog then becoming partly sunny, cool, mid 60's

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, lows near 60

Thursday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, mid 60’s

Friday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, mid 60’s

Saturday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, mid 60’s

Sunday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Discussion

High pressure generated some hot weather to begin the new work week on Monday, but a marine flow of air will begin a cooling trend today that will keep us on the cool side for much of the remainder of the week. In fact, the persistent marine flow will cause a pattern of late night and early morning low clouds and fog along coastal regions and high temperatures will struggle to escape the 60’s as compared with the 80’s that started the week.

Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0uVecgW7gU

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and fog then gradually becoming partly sunny, windy, pleasant, highs in the low-to-mid 70’s

Tonight

Becoming mostly cloudy, mild, breezy, some fog possible late, lows near 60 degrees

Tuesday

Early morning low clouds and fog then becoming partly sunny, pleasant, low-to-mid 70’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, lows near 60

Wednesday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Thursday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Friday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Saturday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Discussion

Low pressure will move onshore over the next day or so, but it’ll be well north of the region; consequently, it won’t have much of an effect here. A marine layer will dominate over the next few days and that will cause a persistent pattern of late night and early morning low clouds and fog and temperatures will generally stay on the cool side of normal.

Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeWK68xtX8s

Discussion

With yet another widespread cold air mass headed for the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and New England later this weekend, it is time to update the positive aspects of this cool spring with regards to tornadoes. Indeed, tornado activity for the 12 months is now the lowest it has been in 60 years (since 1954) and the number of fatalities has dropped significantly since the very active 2011 severe weather season. Through Thursday, there have been three tornado related fatalities compared to two years ago when more than 500 people were killed as a result of tornado activity.

In terms of the number of tornadoes, the year-to-date count is approaching the lowest 10% of all years on record according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. Only three tornadoes have formed so far in the month of May which is usually the USA’s most active month, and all three were rated at the weakest classification level (EF-0). According to NOAA, April 2013 ended up with 83 official tornado reports as compared with 206 last year and 758 in 2011. March 2013 ended up with only 18 tornadoes as compared with 154 last year and 75 in 2011.

In terms of the cause of the quiet tornado season, the cold has been so relentless across the Rockies, Plains, South and East during the past couple of months that it has stopped in its tracks one necessary requirement for severe weather and that is the advance northward of very warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. This upcoming cold air outbreak will send many places 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year later this weekend and early next week and it will no doubt inhibit tornado activity during that stretch of weather.

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and fog then gradually becoming mostly sunny, cool, highs in the mid 60’s

Tonight

Becoming mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, lows in the upper 50’s

Saturday

Early morning low clouds and fog then becoming partly sunny, not as cool, upper 60’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, lows near 60

Sunday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, mild, low 70’s

Monday

Early low clouds and fog possible then mostly sunny skies, pleasant, low 70’s

Tuesday

Early fog then mostly sunny, pleasant, near 70

Wednesday

Early fog then mostly sunny, cooler, mid-to-upper 60’s

Discussion

Low pressure finally exists to the east today and this will help to set off a warming trend so that by late in the weekend high temperatures will be back up in the 70’s. High pressure will build into the region this weekend and dry conditions will dominate, but there will be some late night and early morning low clouds and fog along coastal regions.

Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxYrCg4PV30