<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!--Generated by Site-Server v@build.version@ (http://www.squarespace.com) on Wed, 10 Jun 2026 11:27:10 GMT
--><rss xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:media="http://www.rssboard.org/media-rss" version="2.0"><channel><title>Blog - Arcfield Weather</title><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/</link><lastBuildDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 11:26:58 +0000</lastBuildDate><language>en-US</language><generator>Site-Server v@build.version@ (http://www.squarespace.com)</generator><description><![CDATA[<p>Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information</p>]]></description><item><title>6:00 AM | **Multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms through Friday night...some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe...heat and humidity build as well**</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/6/10/600-am-unsettled-conditions-through-friday-night-with-multiple-chances-of-showers-and-thunderstormsheat-and-humidity-build-as-well-in-the-mid-atlantic-region-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a2810af5a358e3608e0c3b6</guid><description><![CDATA[The next few days will be quite unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region as the 
heat and humidity build to rather uncomfortable levels. Showers are likely 
today and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed in and the threat of 
showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday and Friday as well. 
Some of the rain that falls through Friday night can be heavy at times and 
some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels. A frontal system 
should cross the area on Friday night and its passage will lead to more 
comfortable conditions this weekend (i.e., lower humidity) and generally 
dry weather for both days.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, warm, occasional showers, maybe a thunderstorm or two, some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be strong, highs in the mid-to-upper 80’s; S-SW winds around 5-10 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy in the evening with showers and thunderstorms possible, some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be strong, partly cloudy late, mild, lows in the lower 70’s </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, hot, more humid, chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be strong, near 95 degrees </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, mild, muggy, chance of evening showers and thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be strong, low-to-mid 70’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, hot, humid, chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be strong, middle 90’s</p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, more comfortable with lower humidity, upper 80’s </p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, maybe a late shower, lower 90’s</p><p class=""><strong>Monday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, not quite as warm, chance of showers and thunderstorms, middle 80’s </p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">The next few days will be quite unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region as the heat and humidity build to rather uncomfortable levels. Showers are likely today and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed in and the threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday and Friday as well. Some of the rain that falls through Friday night can be heavy at times and some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels. A frontal system should cross the area on Friday night and its passage will lead to more comfortable conditions this weekend (i.e., lower humidity) and generally dry weather for both days.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1781010636252-SF4P6GL7I0UOL6HJ0TDT/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | **Multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms through Friday night...some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe...heat and humidity build as well**</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | **Multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms in the Wednesday to Friday time period as heat and humidity build in the Mid-Atlantic**</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/6/9/600-am-heat-and-humidity-build-for-the-second-half-of-the-week-and-itll-be-unsettled-as-well-with-multiple-chances-of-showers-and-thunderstorms-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a26c025f1827001b6724711</guid><description><![CDATA[The second half of the work week will feature very warm and humid 
conditions and it’ll be quite unsettled as well with multiple chances of 
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure that pushed into the northeastern 
states over the weekend will shift to the western Atlantic Ocean at 
mid-week opening the door for some very warm air to move into the 
Mid-Atlantic region along with noticeably higher humidity levels. Showers 
and thunderstorms will be a threat each day from Wednesday through Friday, 
but a Friday night frontal passage should pave the way for a more 
comfortable and dry weekend.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, warm, highs in the low-to-mid 80’s; S winds around 5-10 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, mild, chance of a shower late, lows in the mid-to-upper 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday</strong></p><p class="">Plenty of clouds, quite warm, occasional showers, maybe a thunderstorm or two, upper 80’s </p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, mild, chance of evening showers and thunderstorms, lower 70’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, hot, more humid, chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, middle 90’s </p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, hot, humid, chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 90’s </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, but with lower humidity, near 90 degrees</p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, near 90 degrees </p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">The second half of the work week will feature very warm and humid conditions and it’ll be quite unsettled as well with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure that pushed into the northeastern states over the weekend will shift to the western Atlantic Ocean at mid-week opening the door for some very warm air to move into the Mid-Atlantic region along with noticeably higher humidity levels. Showers and thunderstorms will be a threat each day from Wednesday through Friday, but a Friday night frontal passage should pave the way for a more comfortable and dry weekend. </p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1780924478878-M64302OSUQAQ4HZ8WQAS/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | **Multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms in the Wednesday to Friday time period as heat and humidity build in the Mid-Atlantic**</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>*An on-going unsettled weather pattern includes enhanced severe weather risks next couple of days and an impressive and impactful upper-level trough next week*</title><category>DC</category><category>DEN</category><category>HSV</category><category>Medium Range Outlooks</category><category>NYC</category><category>PHL</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 15:05:59 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/6/8/an-on-going-unsettled-weather-pattern-includes-enhanced-severe-weather-risks-next-couple-of-days-and-an-impressive-and-impactful-upper-level-trough-next-week</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a26da5de805e5566b302309</guid><description><![CDATA[Sometimes during the month of June, the jet stream retreats safely to the 
north into Canada, and the weather settles down across the continental 
US...that certainly does not appear to the case this years. Upper-level 
troughs of low pressure and colder-than-normal air masses continue to drop 
into the US from Canada, and this is resulting in severe weather outbreaks 
and there will be an enhanced threat during the next two days. Next week 
promises to feature a very impressive upper-level trough by June standards 
that will no doubt be impactful with more severe weather threats and 
widespread cooler-than-normal conditions.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure class="
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          <figcaption data-sqsp-image-classic-block-caption-container class="image-caption-wrapper">
            <p class="">This week’s upper-level trough in the northern US will likely be surpassed next week by an even stronger and more widespread system resulting in a continuing threat of severe weather. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics</p>
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  <p class=""><strong>Overview</strong></p><p class="">Sometimes during the month of June, the jet stream retreats safely to the north into Canada, and the weather settles down across the continental US...that certainly does not appear to the case this years. Upper-level troughs of low pressure and colder-than-normal air masses continue to drop into the US from Canada, and this is resulting in severe weather outbreaks and there will be an enhanced threat during the next two days. Next week promises to feature a very impressive upper-level trough by June standards that will no doubt be impactful with more severe weather threats and widespread cooler-than-normal conditions.</p>





















  
  














































  

    
  
    

      

      
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                <img data-stretch="false" data-image="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/56290589-c32f-4c73-9c9a-ac467360cc70/ca5a3308-3940-4065-9cfc-495dfa4a8cbd.gif" data-image-dimensions="1024x696" data-image-focal-point="0.5,0.5" alt="" data-load="false" elementtiming="system-image-block" data-sqsp-image-classic-block-image src="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/56290589-c32f-4c73-9c9a-ac467360cc70/ca5a3308-3940-4065-9cfc-495dfa4a8cbd.gif?format=1000w" width="1024" height="696" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, 100vw" onload="this.classList.add(&quot;loaded&quot;)" srcset="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/56290589-c32f-4c73-9c9a-ac467360cc70/ca5a3308-3940-4065-9cfc-495dfa4a8cbd.gif?format=100w 100w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/56290589-c32f-4c73-9c9a-ac467360cc70/ca5a3308-3940-4065-9cfc-495dfa4a8cbd.gif?format=300w 300w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/56290589-c32f-4c73-9c9a-ac467360cc70/ca5a3308-3940-4065-9cfc-495dfa4a8cbd.gif?format=500w 500w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/56290589-c32f-4c73-9c9a-ac467360cc70/ca5a3308-3940-4065-9cfc-495dfa4a8cbd.gif?format=750w 750w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/56290589-c32f-4c73-9c9a-ac467360cc70/ca5a3308-3940-4065-9cfc-495dfa4a8cbd.gif?format=1000w 1000w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/56290589-c32f-4c73-9c9a-ac467360cc70/ca5a3308-3940-4065-9cfc-495dfa4a8cbd.gif?format=1500w 1500w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/56290589-c32f-4c73-9c9a-ac467360cc70/ca5a3308-3940-4065-9cfc-495dfa4a8cbd.gif?format=2500w 2500w" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-loader="sqs">

            
          
        
          
        

        
          
          <figcaption data-sqsp-image-classic-block-caption-container class="image-caption-wrapper">
            <p class="">An upper-level trough of low pressure will slide across the northern states from tomorrow into the late week supporting numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms will reach severe levels on Tuesday in the Northern Plains, on Wednesday in the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley and potentially on Thursday and Friday across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and northeastern states. . Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com</p>
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  <p class=""><strong>Details</strong></p><p class="">The threat of severe weather will become enhanced over the Northern Plains on Tuesday and then across the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. The combination of moist air flowing northward from the southern states and a vigorous upper-level trough will create the instability required for severe weather on Tuesday and Wednesday and this same system could produce strong-to-severe thunderstorms later in the week across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast US. The hazards associated with the severe weather during the next couple of days will include frequent lightning, powerful wind gusts, hail and the possibility of tornadoes. </p>





















  
  














































  

    
  
    

      

      
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            <p class="">The threat of severe weather will be enhanced on Tuesday over the Northern Plains and on Wednesday across the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley regions. Maps courtesy NOAA/SPC</p>
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  <p class="">By early next week, another upper-level trough will become established over the central Plains and this one looks to become quite deep and widespread for the month of June...even more impressive than the near-term system. As a result, look for a continuation of severe weather threats next week and likely a wide part of the nation will experience cooler-than-normal conditions for the middle of June. </p>





















  
  














































  

    
  
    

      

      
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            <p class="">Next week could feature a widespread cooler-than-normal air mass across the eastern half of the nation with a deep upper-level trough of low pressure centered over the central states. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics</p>
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  <p class="">This unsettled weather pattern will likely result in a decent amount of rainfall for the eastern half of the nation during the next week to ten days which is good news for some areas in the south and east that are still experiencing dry soil conditions. </p>





















  
  














































  

    
  
    

      

      
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          <figcaption data-sqsp-image-classic-block-caption-container class="image-caption-wrapper">
            <p class="">Next week could feature a decent amount of rainfall across much of the eastern half of the nation with a deep upper-level trough of low pressure centered over the central states. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics</p>
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  <p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield <br><a href="https://www.arcfieldweather.com/">arcfieldweather.com</a></p><p class="">Follow us on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ArcfieldWeather">Facebook</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/ArcfieldWeather">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/arcfieldweather">YouTube</a></p><p class="">Video discussion:</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1780931323948-1ZFCTTY7U8XKW0C924E7/HKScHmsXcAAinL6.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="984" height="808"><media:title type="plain">*An on-going unsettled weather pattern includes enhanced severe weather risks next couple of days and an impressive and impactful upper-level trough next week*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *Back into the 90's later this week with higher humidity levels as well*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/6/8/600-am-another-hot-spell-coming-for-the-second-half-of-the-week-90-degrees-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a257315c107b26a33aee4fe</guid><description><![CDATA[Nearby high pressure will dominate the weather scene during the next couple 
of days and then it’ll shift off the coast at mid-week opening the door for 
some very warm air to move into the Mid-Atlantic along with noticeably 
higher humidity levels. It’ll also become unsettled for the second half of 
the week with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and 
Thursday, and Friday could present the chance for severe weather as a 
strong frontal system arrives. Temperatures will start the new work week at 
comfortably warm levels, but then rise into the uncomfortable low-to-mid 
90’s during the second half of the week.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Clouds and limited sun, comfortable, highs not far from 80 degrees; Light and variable winds</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, cool, lows in the upper 50’s </p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, quite warm, middle 80’s </p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Partly cloudy, mild, middle 60’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, very warm, chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, near 90 degrees </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, very warm, more humid, chance of showers and thunderstorms, middle 90’s</p><p class=""><strong>Friday </strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, very warm, humid, chance of showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 90’s</p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, chance of showers and thunderstorms, near 90 degrees </p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">Nearby high pressure will dominate the weather scene during the next couple of days and then it’ll shift off the coast at mid-week opening the door for some very warm air to move into the Mid-Atlantic along with noticeably higher humidity levels. It’ll also become unsettled for the second half of the week with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday, and Friday could present the chance for severe weather as a strong frontal system arrives. Temperatures will start the new work week at comfortably warm levels, but then rise into the uncomfortable low-to-mid 90’s during the second half of the week. </p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1780839255714-81LOJHX7O8FECHW20TX8/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *Back into the 90's later this week with higher humidity levels as well*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *Very warm next couple of days with 90+ degrees on the table...showers/storms possible on Saturday night/Sunday*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/6/5/600-am-very-warm-next-couple-of-days-with-90-degrees-on-the-tableshowersstorms-possible-on-saturday-nightsunday-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a21765fdab0aa76265b266c</guid><description><![CDATA[High pressure off the east coast will control the weather through tomorrow 
and temperatures will soar to 90+ degrees in many spots along the I-95 
corridor. Clouds will tend to increase on Saturday as a frontal system 
approaches the Mid-Atlantic region and showers and thunderstorms are 
possible at night. While there can be some lingering shower on Sunday, much 
- if not all - of the day should be rain-free to close out the weekend. 
Quite warm and dry weather should dominate the scene early next week as a 
new high pressure system takes control in the Mid-Atlantic region.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, quite warm, highs in the lower 90’s; Light and variable winds</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Partly cloudy, mild, lows in the upper 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Sun followed by clouds, breezy, very warm, chance for a shower or thunderstorm by the end of the afternoon, middle 90’s </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, mild, chance of showers and thunderstorms, near 70 degrees for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, near 90 degrees</p><p class=""><strong>Monday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, quite warm, mid-to-upper 80’s</p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, quite warm, middle 80’s</p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, near 90 degrees</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">High pressure off the east coast will control the weather through tomorrow and temperatures will soar to 90+ degrees in many spots along the I-95 corridor. Clouds will tend to increase on Saturday as a frontal system approaches the Mid-Atlantic region and showers and thunderstorms are possible at night. While there can be some lingering shower on Sunday, much - if not all - of the day should be rain-free to close out the weekend. Quite warm and dry weather should dominate the scene early next week as a new high pressure system takes control in the Mid-Atlantic region.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1780577923471-KNV9GGP6L4VFXS0PPJL5/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *Very warm next couple of days with 90+ degrees on the table...showers/storms possible on Saturday night/Sunday*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *Very warm through the weekend with 90+ degrees on the table*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/6/4/600-am-very-warm-through-the-weekend-with-90-degrees-on-the-table</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a2049743990c23591632b21</guid><description><![CDATA[Warmer air has pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region on the backside of high 
pressure that is headed to the western Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures today 
should reach the upper 80s around here, the lower 90’s on Friday and the 
low-to-mid 90’s on Saturday. An upper-level trough of low pressure will 
approach the area later this weekend and bring us the chance of showers and 
thunderstorms on Saturday night. The threat of showers will continue on 
Sunday…maybe a PM thunderstorm…but much of the day should be rain-free.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, quite warm, highs in the upper 80’s; Light and variable winds</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, mild, lows in the low-to-mid 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Friday </strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, lower 90’s </p><p class=""><strong>Friday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Partly cloudy, mild, upper 60’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Sun followed by clouds, breezy, very warm, low-to-mid 90’s; showers and thunderstorms possible at night</p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, quite warm, chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, near 90 degrees</p><p class=""><strong>Monday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, warm, low-to-mid 80’s</p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, warm, lower 90’s</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">Warmer air has pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region on the backside of high pressure that is headed to the western Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures today should reach the upper 80s around here, the lower 90’s on Friday and the low-to-mid 90’s on Saturday. An upper-level trough of low pressure will approach the area later this weekend and bring us the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday night. The threat of showers will continue on Sunday…maybe a PM thunderstorm…but much of the day should be rain-free.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1780500878964-8MVG9AKSK7GM6GNGFEC6/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *Very warm through the weekend with 90+ degrees on the table*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *Much warmer weather on the way for the late week and weekend*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/6/3/600-am-much-warmer-weather-on-the-way-for-the-late-week-and-weekend-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a1eccc1bfbc5d138e34ef75</guid><description><![CDATA[High pressure has settled over the Tennessee Valley and it’ll shift to the 
western Atlantic Ocean over the next few days. This re-positioning of the 
high pressure will open up the door for much warmer air to push into the 
Mid-Atlantic region as low-level southwesterly flow develops on the back 
side of the high pressure system. Temperatures today should approach the 80 
degree mark for afternoon highs and then likely reach the mid-to-upper 80’s 
tomorrow, 90 degrees on Friday and the lower 90’s on Saturday. By later 
Sunday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase in the 
Mid-Atlantic region as low pressure heads in this direction from the Great 
Lakes. It’ll likely stay unsettled and turn cooler on Monday and Tuesday of 
next week with a continuing chance of showers.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, warmer, highs near 80 degrees; N winds around 5 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, cool, lows in the upper 50’s </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, quite warm, mid-to-upper 80’s </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, mild, middle 60’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, near 90 degrees </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Sun followed by clouds, very warm, lower 90’s </p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, warm, chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 80’s</p><p class=""><strong>Monday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, not as warm, chance of showers and thunderstorms, near 80 degrees</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">High pressure has settled over the Tennessee Valley and it’ll shift to the western Atlantic Ocean over the next few days. This re-positioning of the high pressure will open up the door for much warmer air to push into the Mid-Atlantic region as low-level southwesterly flow develops on the back side of the high pressure system. Temperatures today should approach the 80 degree mark for afternoon highs and then likely reach the mid-to-upper 80’s tomorrow, 90 degrees on Friday and the lower 90’s on Saturday. By later Sunday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase in the Mid-Atlantic region as low pressure heads in this direction from the Great Lakes. It’ll likely stay unsettled and turn cooler on Monday and Tuesday of next week with a continuing chance of showers. </p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1780403420943-16MPJZA18QMXQOWNMK7N/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *Much warmer weather on the way for the late week and weekend*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *Much warmer weather on the way for the late week/weekend*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/6/2/600-am-much-warmer-weather-on-the-way-for-the-late-weekweekend-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a1d9edeb4da045966f0e10d</guid><description><![CDATA[High pressure will settle over the Tennessee Valley over the next couple of 
days and then slide to coastal areas by later in the week. This pattern 
will open up the door for much warmer weather to push into the Mid-Atlantic 
region as southwesterly flow develops on the back side of the high pressure 
system.  Temperatures today should hold in the comfortable middle 70’s for 
afternoon highs and then approach the 80 degree mark on Wednesday. By the 
end of the work week and first part of the weekend, high temperatures in 
the lower 90’s will be likely and then the warmth will slacken off a bit on 
Sunday as clouds and rain chances increase by later in the day. Low 
pressure will move in this direction from the Great Lakes late in the 
weekend and it’ll likely stay unsettled on Monday and Tuesday as well with 
a continuing chance of showers.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, comfortable, highs in the middle 70’s (normal high at DCA is 81 degrees); N-NE winds around 5 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, cool, lows in the mid-to-upper 50’s </p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday </strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, warm, near 80 degrees </p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, cool, upper 50’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, quite warm, mid-to-upper 80’s </p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, lower 90’s </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, lower 90’s &nbsp;</p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, quite warm, chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 80’s</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">High pressure will settle over the Tennessee Valley over the next couple of days and then slide to coastal areas by later in the week. This pattern will open up the door for much warmer weather to push into the Mid-Atlantic region as southwesterly flow develops on the back side of the high pressure system.&nbsp; Temperatures today should hold in the comfortable middle 70’s for afternoon highs and then approach the 80 degree mark on Wednesday. By the end of the work week and first part of the weekend, high temperatures in the lower 90’s will be likely and then the warmth will slacken off a bit on Sunday as clouds and rain chances increase by later in the day. Low pressure will move in this direction from the Great Lakes late in the weekend and it’ll likely stay unsettled on Monday and Tuesday as well with a continuing chance of showers.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1780326136941-B6ZQNTZMVZKHFTD0ATNR/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *Much warmer weather on the way for the late week/weekend*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *Comfortable air mass still in place to start the new work week...much warmer weather later in the week*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/6/1/600-am-comfortable-air-mass-still-in-place-to-start-the-new-work-weekwarmer-weather-later-in-the-week</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a1c347fbddf62635f2ce56d</guid><description><![CDATA[The week starts off with an upper-level trough over the northeastern states 
and a comfortable air mass is still in place. A couple of weak systems will 
pass by during the next couple of days, but it’ll likely stay on the dry 
side with high pressure in control. Much warmer weather is likely to arrive 
in the Mid-Atlantic region later in the week and we’ll also have to watch 
for a spinning low pressure system that should remain just off the coast.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, warm, highs in the upper 70’s; N-NW winds around 5 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Partly cloudy, cool, lows in the middle 50’s </p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, pleasant, middle 70’s </p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Partly cloudy, cool, middle 50’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, warm, upper 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, quite warm, middle 80’s</p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, near 90 degrees&nbsp;</p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, very warm, near 90 degrees</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">The week starts off with an upper-level trough over the northeastern states and a comfortable air mass is still in place. A couple of weak systems will pass by during the next couple of days, but it’ll likely stay on the dry side with high pressure in control. Much warmer weather is likely to arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region later in the week and we’ll also have to watch for a spinning low pressure system that should remain just off the coast.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1780233382759-EV4NEIBD228VB0J45S5Y/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *Comfortable air mass still in place to start the new work week...much warmer weather later in the week*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>5:30 AM | *High pressure dominates the scene this weekend with a cooler-than-normal air mass*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2026 09:30:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/29/600-am-high-pressure-dominates-the-scene-this-weekend-with-a-cooler-than-normal-air-mass-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a1889e36b03420d0bd47348</guid><description><![CDATA[Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will control the weather in our 
area right into the early part of next week and there will be a cold 
frontal passage in tonight’s overnight hours. The incoming Canadian air 
mass for the weekend and early part of next week will be cooler-than-normal 
for this time of year, but still quite comfortable. By Tuesday and 
Wednesday of next week, shortwaves to our north and west will try to rotate 
into the Mid-Atlantic region increasing the chance of showers on both days.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, comfortably warm, highs in the upper 70’s; W-NW winds around 5-10 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, cool, lows in the upper 50’s </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, quite breezy with gusts to 30 mph, cooler, lower 70’s </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, chilly, near 50 degrees for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, nice, low-to-mid 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Monday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, pleasant, mid-to-upper 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, comfortable, slight chance of showers, low-to-mid 70’s &nbsp;</p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, still comfortable, slight chance of showers, low-to-mid 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will control the weather in our area right into the early part of next week and there will be a cold frontal passage in tonight’s overnight hours. The incoming Canadian air mass for the weekend and early part of next week will be cooler-than-normal for this time of year, but still quite comfortable. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, shortwaves to our north and west will try to rotate into the Mid-Atlantic region increasing the chance of showers on both days.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1779993086854-ETG4GJRDXGYF1TO99STP/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">5:30 AM | *High pressure dominates the scene this weekend with a cooler-than-normal air mass*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *High pressure over the Great Lakes takes control and a nice stretch of weather from today into early next week*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/28/600-am-high-pressure-over-the-great-lakes-takes-control-and-a-nice-stretch-of-weather-from-today-into-early-next-week-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a16f986e248ee5201b296f8</guid><description><![CDATA[Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will head in this direction and 
control the weather scene around here right into at least the early part of 
next week. The incoming air mass will be noticeably drier than recent days 
and cooler-than-normal; however, cooler-than-normal this time of year is 
quite comfortable. After the occasionally heavy showers of yesterday, it 
looks like it’ll be rain-free from today through at least the early part of 
next week with the strong high pressure system in full control.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, becoming breezy, comfortable with lower humidity than recent days, highs in the upper 70’s; N winds around 5-15 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, cool, lows in the middle 50’s </p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, comfortable, mid-to-upper 70’s </p><p class=""><strong>Friday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, cool, mid-to-upper 50’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, nice, mid-to-upper 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, pleasant, lower 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Monday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, comfortable, low-to-mid 70’s &nbsp;</p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, nice, low-to-mid 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will head in this direction and control the weather scene around here right into at least the early part of next week. The incoming air mass will be noticeably drier than recent days and cooler-than-normal; however, cooler-than-normal this time of year is quite comfortable. After the occasionally heavy showers of yesterday, it looks like it’ll be rain-free from today through at least the early part of next week with the strong high pressure system in full control. </p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1779890593750-Z6J1AGWLQAVUKUYM54EN/DC-Night.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1458" height="415"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *High pressure over the Great Lakes takes control and a nice stretch of weather from today into early next week*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *Another unsettled day in the Mid-Atlantic region with showers and possible thunderstorms...nice, comfortable stretch likely Thursday through Monday*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/27/600-am-another-unsettled-day-in-the-mid-atlantic-region-with-the-chance-of-showers-and-thunderstorms-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a15c608498fd76f72e5a446</guid><description><![CDATA[It stays on the unsettled side for another day in the Mid-Atlantic region 
with mainly cloudy skies, occasional showers, and maybe a thunderstorm…some 
of the rain can be briefly on the heavy side. High pressure from the Great 
Lakes will head this way for the late week and dominate the weather picture 
into early next week and it’ll turn noticeably drier compared to recent 
days. Temperatures will be cooler-than-normal, but that is on the 
comfortable side given the time of year and there should be an abundance of 
sunshine each day from tomorrow through Monday.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, warm, occasional showers, maybe a thunderstorm, highs near 80 degrees; Light and variable winds</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, mild, chance of evening showers and maybe a thunderstorm, lows in the middle 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, breezy, comfortably warm, upper 70’s </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, cool, near 55 degrees for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, nice, mid-to-upper 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, pleasant, mid-to-upper 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, comfortable, lower 70’s &nbsp;</p><p class=""><strong>Monday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, nice, low-to-mid 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">It stays on the unsettled side for another day in the Mid-Atlantic region with mainly cloudy skies, occasional showers, and maybe a thunderstorm…some of the rain can be briefly on the heavy side. High pressure from the Great Lakes will head this way for the late week and dominate the weather picture into early next week and it’ll turn noticeably drier compared to recent days. Temperatures will be cooler-than-normal, but that is on the comfortable side given the time of year and there should be an abundance of sunshine each day from tomorrow through Monday.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1779811875449-WOKP53YZ3Q0EZN9KY3X3/DC-Night.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1458" height="415"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *Another unsettled day in the Mid-Atlantic region with showers and possible thunderstorms...nice, comfortable stretch likely Thursday through Monday*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>*El Nino continues to unfold across the equatorial Pacific...signs point to a strong event with implications on the upcoming tropical season and potentially next winter as well* </title><category>DC</category><category>DEN</category><category>HSV</category><category>Medium Range Outlooks</category><category>NYC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 16:41:40 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/26/el-nino-continues-to-unfold-across-the-equatorial-pacificsigns-point-to-a-strong-event-with-implications-on-the-upcoming-tropical-season-and-potentially-next-winter</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a15cd4a3148fe751cefeb1a</guid><description><![CDATA[El Nino is on the way, and it looks like it will be a strong event...

The equatorial Pacific Ocean is transitioning into El Nino conditions 
(i.e., warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) and signs point to a 
strong event by the summer and fall seasons with big implications on 
tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. Looking ahead, it appears this El 
Nino event may even last into the upcoming winter season of 2026-2027 which 
no doubt would have some implications across the continental US.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure class="
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          <figcaption data-sqsp-image-classic-block-caption-container class="image-caption-wrapper">
            <p class="">Sea surface temperatures continues to rise across the equatorial Pacific Ocean as an El Nino event gets underway. El Nino will have implications on the upcoming tropical season and it could potentially last long enough to have implications on the winter season of 2026-2027. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre</p>
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  <p class=""><strong>Overview</strong></p><p class="">El Nino is on the way, and it looks like it will be a strong event...</p><p class="">The equatorial Pacific Ocean is transitioning into El Nino conditions (i.e., warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) and signs point to a strong event by the summer and fall seasons with big implications on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. Looking ahead, it appears this El Nino event may even last into the upcoming winter season of 2026-2027 which no doubt would have some implications across the continental US.</p>





















  
  














































  

    
  
    

      

      
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                <img data-stretch="false" data-image="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/13315f39-21f6-438f-94f4-d3e01406e987/SOI.jpg" data-image-dimensions="997x338" data-image-focal-point="0.5,0.5" alt="" data-load="false" elementtiming="system-image-block" data-sqsp-image-classic-block-image src="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/13315f39-21f6-438f-94f4-d3e01406e987/SOI.jpg?format=1000w" width="997" height="338" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, 100vw" onload="this.classList.add(&quot;loaded&quot;)" srcset="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/13315f39-21f6-438f-94f4-d3e01406e987/SOI.jpg?format=100w 100w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/13315f39-21f6-438f-94f4-d3e01406e987/SOI.jpg?format=300w 300w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/13315f39-21f6-438f-94f4-d3e01406e987/SOI.jpg?format=500w 500w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/13315f39-21f6-438f-94f4-d3e01406e987/SOI.jpg?format=750w 750w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/13315f39-21f6-438f-94f4-d3e01406e987/SOI.jpg?format=1000w 1000w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/13315f39-21f6-438f-94f4-d3e01406e987/SOI.jpg?format=1500w 1500w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/13315f39-21f6-438f-94f4-d3e01406e987/SOI.jpg?format=2500w 2500w" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-loader="sqs">

            
          
        
          
        

        
          
          <figcaption data-sqsp-image-classic-block-caption-container class="image-caption-wrapper">
            <p class="">The trend is down for the Southern Oscillation teleconnection Index or SOI and sustained “negative” readings are usually well correlated with developing or intensifying El Nino conditions. Plot courtesy Australia web site known as “long paddock”</p>
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  <p class=""><strong>El Nino on the rise</strong></p><p class="">Water temperatures continue to rise across the tropical Pacific Ocean as very warm water from underneath the surface “bubble” up to the top level. The recent temperature reading in all four El Nino regions (4, 3.4, 3, 1+2) feature above-normal conditions with the greatest difference from normal just off the west coast of South America (i.e., region 1+2). A teleconnection index known as the Southern Oscillation Index or SOI suggests this trend of warming will continue in upcoming days and numerous computer forecast models support this idea. The SOI is the longest lasting teleconnection index that provides us with information on the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO. The SOI factors in the pressure difference between two areas of the Southern Hemisphere – Darwin Australia and Tahiti – and sustained “negative” readings usually is well correlated with the development of intensification of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific and recent values suggest water temperatures will continue to rise in coming days. </p>





















  
  














































  

    
  
    

      

      
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                <img data-stretch="false" data-image="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/91aa9eed-ab9e-4b05-a47c-7a88f0c7a624/nino12.png" data-image-dimensions="768x384" data-image-focal-point="0.5,0.5" alt="" data-load="false" elementtiming="system-image-block" data-sqsp-image-classic-block-image src="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/91aa9eed-ab9e-4b05-a47c-7a88f0c7a624/nino12.png?format=1000w" width="768" height="384" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, 100vw" onload="this.classList.add(&quot;loaded&quot;)" srcset="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/91aa9eed-ab9e-4b05-a47c-7a88f0c7a624/nino12.png?format=100w 100w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/91aa9eed-ab9e-4b05-a47c-7a88f0c7a624/nino12.png?format=300w 300w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/91aa9eed-ab9e-4b05-a47c-7a88f0c7a624/nino12.png?format=500w 500w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/91aa9eed-ab9e-4b05-a47c-7a88f0c7a624/nino12.png?format=750w 750w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/91aa9eed-ab9e-4b05-a47c-7a88f0c7a624/nino12.png?format=1000w 1000w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/91aa9eed-ab9e-4b05-a47c-7a88f0c7a624/nino12.png?format=1500w 1500w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/91aa9eed-ab9e-4b05-a47c-7a88f0c7a624/nino12.png?format=2500w 2500w" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-loader="sqs">

            
          
        
          
        

        
          
          <figcaption data-sqsp-image-classic-block-caption-container class="image-caption-wrapper">
            <p class="">Water temperatures are already above-normal in the eastern Pacific Ocean (region 1+2) as El Nino continues to intensify. Plot courtesy NOAA&lt; tropicaltidbits.com</p>
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  <p class=""><strong>Impact on the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin</strong></p><p class="">The rise of El Nino in the tropical Pacific will certainly have some implications on the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin which officially beings on June 1st. El Nino will likely be a big inhibiting factor to the Atlantic Basin tropical season due to increased subsidence and wind shear (hostile conditions for tropical systems). In addition, sea surface temperatures are actually markedly below-normal in much of the Atlantic Basin from coastal waters of Africa to the Caribbean Sea – also an inhibiting factor to the formation or intensification of tropical activity. </p>





















  
  














































  

    
  
    

      

      
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            <p class="">Water temperatures are already above-normal in the central Pacific Ocean (region 3.4) as El Nino continues to intensify. Plot courtesy NOAA&lt; tropicaltidbits.com</p>
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  <p class=""><strong>Potential impact on the 2026-2027 winter season</strong></p><p class="">Signs point to the continuation of El Nino conditions as we head into the early part of 2027 which means there can be a big impact next winter across the continental US. However, it is a little too early to have a handle on its magnitude this far ahead and another metric that will need to be determined in coming months is where the most warming will take place relative-to-normal. </p>





















  
  














































  

    
  
    

      

      
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                <img data-stretch="false" data-image="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/6af4a259-40aa-4436-a14a-2fc5ed7ad497/February_1983_nor%27easter_NESIS_map.jpg" data-image-dimensions="1056x816" data-image-focal-point="0.5,0.5" alt="" data-load="false" elementtiming="system-image-block" data-sqsp-image-classic-block-image src="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/6af4a259-40aa-4436-a14a-2fc5ed7ad497/February_1983_nor%27easter_NESIS_map.jpg?format=1000w" width="1056" height="816" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, 100vw" onload="this.classList.add(&quot;loaded&quot;)" srcset="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/6af4a259-40aa-4436-a14a-2fc5ed7ad497/February_1983_nor%27easter_NESIS_map.jpg?format=100w 100w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/6af4a259-40aa-4436-a14a-2fc5ed7ad497/February_1983_nor%27easter_NESIS_map.jpg?format=300w 300w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/6af4a259-40aa-4436-a14a-2fc5ed7ad497/February_1983_nor%27easter_NESIS_map.jpg?format=500w 500w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/6af4a259-40aa-4436-a14a-2fc5ed7ad497/February_1983_nor%27easter_NESIS_map.jpg?format=750w 750w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/6af4a259-40aa-4436-a14a-2fc5ed7ad497/February_1983_nor%27easter_NESIS_map.jpg?format=1000w 1000w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/6af4a259-40aa-4436-a14a-2fc5ed7ad497/February_1983_nor%27easter_NESIS_map.jpg?format=1500w 1500w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/6af4a259-40aa-4436-a14a-2fc5ed7ad497/February_1983_nor%27easter_NESIS_map.jpg?format=2500w 2500w" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-loader="sqs">

            
          
        
          
        

        
          
          <figcaption data-sqsp-image-classic-block-caption-container class="image-caption-wrapper">
            <p class="">A warmer-than-normal El Nino winter can still bring about a major snowstorm to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. In fact, the strong El Nino event of 1982-1983 produced one of the greatest nor’easters to the I-95 corridor in February during an overall warmer-than-normal winter season. Map courtesy Dr. Louis Uccellini/Paul Kocin; NOAA</p>
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  <p class="">An “east-based” El Nino with the warmest water relative-to-normal sitting just off the west coast of South America (as is currently the case) could overwhelm the US with mild Pacific air for next winter. However, a “central-based” event would open the door for some troughiness in the eastern US (and potentially some colder air compared to the “east-based” scenario)...just too early to say. An interesting note, the average of those three strong El Nino events in recent history (i.e., 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016) produced much warmer-than-normal conditions in much of the country with the exception being the southwest US. However, a warmer than normal winter does not preclude the chance for big-time snowstorms as was the case in February 1983 during what was an overall warmer winter when a nor’easter pounded the I-95 corridor. </p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield <br><a href="https://www.arcfieldweather.com/">arcfieldweather.com</a></p><p class="">Follow us on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ArcfieldWeather">Facebook</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/ArcfieldWeather">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/arcfieldweather">YouTube</a></p><p class="">Video discussion:</p><p class=""><br><br><br><br></p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1779813786836-4L01UCS9HL9OWM14IY32/SST.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="799" height="571"><media:title type="plain">*El Nino continues to unfold across the equatorial Pacific...signs point to a strong event with implications on the upcoming tropical season and potentially next winter as well*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>7:00 AM | *Unsettled pattern continues with showers today mainly south of PA/MD border and in all areas of the Mid-Atlantic later tonight and Wednesday*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 11:28:08 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/26/700-am-unsettled-pattern-continues-with-showers-today-mainly-south-of-pamd-border-and-in-all-areas-of-the-mid-atlantic-later-tonight-and-wednesday-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a1583cef1f92806d40b6e49</guid><description><![CDATA[After our damp and chilly weekend, the weather will turn warmer today 
across the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be some shower activity in 
many areas to the south of the PA/MD border. The unsettled weather pattern 
can bring showers to all areas of the Mid-Atlantic later tonight and on 
Wednesday, but then it turns drier again for the late week, and the weekend 
is looking quite nice from this vantage point.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, contined quite damp with occasional showers and maybe a thunderstorm, warm, highs in the upper 70’s; Light and variable winds</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, mild, chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm, patchy fog possible, lows in the middle 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday </strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, warm, chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm, lower 80’s </p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, mild, chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm, near 65 degrees for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, breezy, warm, upper 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, nice, mid-to-upper 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, comfortable, middle 70’s &nbsp;</p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, pleasant, low-to-mid 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">After our damp and chilly weekend, the weather will turn warmer today across the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be some shower activity in many areas to the south of the PA/MD border. The unsettled weather pattern can bring showers to all areas of the Mid-Atlantic later tonight and on Wednesday, but then it turns drier again for the late week, and the weekend is looking quite nice from this vantage point. </p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1779794919419-X3800Y232Q4XZS4VCG13/DC-Night.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1458" height="415"><media:title type="plain">7:00 AM | *Unsettled pattern continues with showers today mainly south of PA/MD border and in all areas of the Mid-Atlantic later tonight and Wednesday*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *A nice day today following the passage of a frontal system...shower threat returns for the midweek*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/12/600-am-a-nice-day-today-following-the-passage-of-a-frontal-systemshower-threat-returns-for-the-midweek-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a01f2645a644f264d9bfc21</guid><description><![CDATA[In the wake of a cold frontal passage, today will turn out to be mainly 
sunny, dry, and mild, but the unsettled weather pattern will bring us 
another shower threat on Wednesday and there can be a PM thunderstorm as 
well. The upper-level trough of low pressure that will generate our 
unsettled weather conditions at mid-week will hang around until the end of 
the week, but important changes will then take place this weekend. 
Upper-level ridging of high pressure that has been stuck over the western 
states in recent days will move eastward and reach the northeastern part of 
the nation by later in the weekend. In fact, this high pressure system will 
intensify markedly early next week and this can result in 90+ degree 
afternoon highs in the Sunday, Monday, Tuesday time period across some 
portions of the I-95 corridor. The big-time warm up is likely to be a 3-day 
affair and temperatures should return to more seasonal levels during the 
middle of next week.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, mild, highs in the upper 60’s; N winds around 5 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Increasing clouds, cool, lows in the low-to-mid 50’s</p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday </strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, breezy, mild, chance of showers, maybe a PM thunderstorm, near 70 degrees</p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, cool, chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, lower 50’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Partly-to-mostly sunny, mild, maybe a shower, upper 60’s</p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, warm, lower 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, quite warm, low-to-mid 80’s</p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, mid-to-upper 80’s</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">In the wake of a cold frontal passage, today will turn out to be mainly sunny, dry, and mild, but the unsettled weather pattern will bring us another shower threat on Wednesday and there can be a PM thunderstorm as well. The upper-level trough of low pressure that will generate our unsettled weather conditions at mid-week will hang around until the end of the week, but important changes will then take place this weekend. Upper-level ridging of high pressure that has been stuck over the western states in recent days will move eastward and reach the northeastern part of the nation by later in the weekend. In fact, this high pressure system will intensify markedly early next week and this can result in 90+ degree afternoon highs in the Sunday, Monday, Tuesday time period across some portions of the I-95 corridor. The big-time warm up is likely to be a 3-day affair and temperatures should return to more seasonal levels during the middle of next week.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1778512511446-2V8H211LIZQZSSF0QT51/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *A nice day today following the passage of a frontal system...shower threat returns for the midweek*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>*Cool and unsettled weather dominates this week across the northeastern states...overall pattern flips by early next week with 90+ degrees on the table for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday*</title><category>DC</category><category>Medium Range Outlooks</category><category>NYC</category><category>PHL</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 14:37:14 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/11/cool-and-unsettled-weather-dominates-this-week-across-the-northeastern-statesoverall-pattern-flips-by-early-next-week-with-90-degrees-on-the-table-for-sunday-monday-and-tuesday</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:6a01e9a02868db366df048e3</guid><description><![CDATA[Much of the week ahead will be rather cool and unsettled across the 
northeastern part of the nation with a persistent upper-level trough of low 
pressure sitting nearby. This upper air pattern will keep temperatures 
generally suppressed to below-normal levels in the Great Lakes, 
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and there will be a shower threat from 
time-to-time. By the weekend, important changes will take place as the 
upper-level trough over the northeastern US retreats off to the northeast 
and an upper-level ridge of high pressure edges its way into the area from 
the western states. This ridge will intensify early next week, and the 
result could be 90+ degrees in the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time period in 
places along the I-95 corridor. Looking beyond, it appears that the 
big-time warm up early next week will not last too much longer as a frontal 
system next mid-week is likely to return temperatures to more seasonal 
levels.   ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure class="
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          <figcaption data-sqsp-image-classic-block-caption-container class="image-caption-wrapper">
            <p class="">Upper-level trough will dominate the scene this week across the northeastern states, but it will be replaced by high-pressure ridging by early next week. In fact, the ridge is likely to intensify markedly early next week and this, in turn, can produce 90+ degrees in portions of the I-95 corridor. Maps courtesy ECMWF, tropcialtidbits.com</p>
          </figcaption>
        
      
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  <p class=""><strong>Overview</strong></p><p class="">Much of the week ahead will be rather cool and unsettled across the northeastern part of the nation with a persistent upper-level trough of low pressure sitting nearby. This upper air pattern will keep temperatures generally suppressed to below-normal levels in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and there will be a shower threat from time-to-time. By the weekend, important changes will take place as the upper-level trough over the northeastern US retreats off to the northeast and an upper-level ridge of high pressure edges its way into the area from the western states. This ridge will intensify early next week, and the result could be 90+ degrees in the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time period in places along the I-95 corridor. Looking beyond, it appears that the big-time warm up early next week will not last too much longer as a frontal system next mid-week is likely to return temperatures to more seasonal levels. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>





















  
  














































  

    
  
    

      

      
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                <img data-stretch="false" data-image="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/51992105-9b28-4ca2-a91b-25fc7a8d43aa/eps_T850aMean_us_1.png" data-image-dimensions="1024x696" data-image-focal-point="0.5,0.5" alt="" data-load="false" elementtiming="system-image-block" data-sqsp-image-classic-block-image src="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/51992105-9b28-4ca2-a91b-25fc7a8d43aa/eps_T850aMean_us_1.png?format=1000w" width="1024" height="696" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, 100vw" onload="this.classList.add(&quot;loaded&quot;)" srcset="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/51992105-9b28-4ca2-a91b-25fc7a8d43aa/eps_T850aMean_us_1.png?format=100w 100w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/51992105-9b28-4ca2-a91b-25fc7a8d43aa/eps_T850aMean_us_1.png?format=300w 300w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/51992105-9b28-4ca2-a91b-25fc7a8d43aa/eps_T850aMean_us_1.png?format=500w 500w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/51992105-9b28-4ca2-a91b-25fc7a8d43aa/eps_T850aMean_us_1.png?format=750w 750w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/51992105-9b28-4ca2-a91b-25fc7a8d43aa/eps_T850aMean_us_1.png?format=1000w 1000w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/51992105-9b28-4ca2-a91b-25fc7a8d43aa/eps_T850aMean_us_1.png?format=1500w 1500w, https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/51992105-9b28-4ca2-a91b-25fc7a8d43aa/eps_T850aMean_us_1.png?format=2500w 2500w" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-loader="sqs">

            
          
        
          
        

        
          
          <figcaption data-sqsp-image-classic-block-caption-container class="image-caption-wrapper">
            <p class="">The current 5-day period will feature an upper-level trough over the northeastern part of the nation and generally cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com</p>
          </figcaption>
        
      
        </figure>
      

    
  


  





  <p class=""><strong>Details</strong></p><p class="">The week begins with an upper-level trough of low pressure centered over the Northeast US and a surface front is producing showers across the southern Mid-Atlantic region. This trough will retreat to the north and east on Tuesday allowing for a nice day across the area, but a second upper-level low pressure system will quickly follow at mid-week bringing another batch of showers and generally cooler-than-normal temperatures. This second upper-level trough will stick around in the Northeast US into the late week, but then it’ll retreat to the northeast this weekend as high-pressure ridging builds into the area. This upper-level ridge is currently stuck over the western states, but a pattern change will not only allow for it to push eastward, but it’ll also intensify early next week.</p>





















  
  














































  

    
  
    

      

      
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          <figcaption data-sqsp-image-classic-block-caption-container class="image-caption-wrapper">
            <p class="">The 5-day period from Sunday, May 17th to May 22nd will feature an upper-level ridge over the northeastern part of the nation and generally warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. In some places, 90+ degrees will be on the table for afternoon highs in the Sunday, Monday, Tuesday time frame including along the I-95 corridor from D.C. to Baltimore to Philly. Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com</p>
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  <p class="">As a result of the intensifying upper-level ridge, temperatures in the northeastern part of the nation will climb noticeably on Saturday with 80+ degrees likely in places like Washington, D.C. Temperatures will then soar in the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time period of next week with 90+ degrees on the table across much of the I-95 corridor....well above normal for mid-May. Looking ahead, it appears that this big-time warmup will be a 3-day affair, but then likely come to an end in the middle of next week as a frontal system passes through the eastern states and brings more seasonal temperatures. The cold front could be quite an active system during the middle of next week with strong thunderstorms a possibility.  &nbsp;</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield <br><a href="https://www.arcfieldweather.com/">arcfieldweather.com</a></p><p class="">Follow us on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ArcfieldWeather">Facebook</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/ArcfieldWeather">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/arcfieldweather">YouTube</a></p><p class="">Video discussion:</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/gif" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1778510263023-7A39I6CXCQRGKE92FFLM/44b608a5-4216-4cfc-be1e-08946f42f3d5.gif?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1024" height="696"><media:title type="plain">*Cool and unsettled weather dominates this week across the northeastern states...overall pattern flips by early next week with 90+ degrees on the table for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *Front slowly clears through the region this morning with additional showers...some sun for the afternoon*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/11/600-am-an-unsettled-week-brings-new-opportunities-for-showers-in-the-mid-atlantic-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:69ffcd6a5f2d151ca3575da9</guid><description><![CDATA[A cold front clears through the region today and after the chance of early 
day showers, partial sunshine should return in the afternoon across the 
area. It looks dry on Tuesday and there can be another shower threat at 
mid-week as an upper-level trough settles over the eastern states. 
Temperatures remain mild through much of the week and then turn quite warm 
as we head into the upcoming weekend.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy this morning with occasional showers then becoming partly sunny in the afternoon, mild, highs in the middle 60’s; NE winds around 5-10 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Partly cloudy, chilly, lows in the middle 40’s </p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, breezy, mild, upper 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Partly cloudy, chilly, lower 50’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, mild, chance of PM showers, maybe a late day thunderstorm, lower 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, mild, upper 60’s</p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, warmer, lower 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, very warm, lower 80’s</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">A cold front clears through the region today and after the chance of early day showers, partial sunshine should return in the afternoon across the area. It looks dry on Tuesday and there can be another shower threat at mid-week as an upper-level trough settles over the eastern states. Temperatures remain mild through much of the week and then turn quite warm as we head into the upcoming weekend.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1778371987349-O2L81U89S172BZ7ZKSFW/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *Front slowly clears through the region this morning with additional showers...some sun for the afternoon*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *Chance of showers on Saturday...maybe a PM thunderstorm...another shot at showers later Sunday into Monday*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 08 May 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/8/600-am-chance-of-showers-on-saturdaymaybe-a-pm-thunderstormanother-shot-at-showers-on-sunday-nightmonday-morning-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:69fcc0ef4113bb255ce5c9f3</guid><description><![CDATA[After a dry day to end the work week, an unsettled pattern will return on 
Saturday bringing the Mid-Atlantic region a chance of showers, maybe even 
an isolated thunderstorm. Another system has an even better shot at 
producing showers around here from Sunday night into Monday...sandwiched in 
between these two systems we’ll try to squeeze out a decent Mother’s Day 
with sun followed by late day clouds, but late day showers are possible. 
Yet another shower threat could reach the Mid-Atlantic by mid-week.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Sun followed by clouds, breezy, mild, highs near 70 degrees; W-SW winds increasing to around 10-20 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, cool, chance of showers late, lows in the lower 50’s </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, breezy, mild, chance of showers, maybe a PM thunderstorm, lower 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Saturday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Mainly clear, cool, near 55 degrees for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Sun followed by clouds, comfortably warm, PM showers possible, near 80 degrees; showers at night</p><p class=""><strong>Monday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, cooler, chance of showers, low-to-mid 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, mild, middle 60’s</p><p class=""><strong>Wednesday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, mild, chance of showers, upper 60’s</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">After a dry day to end the work week, an unsettled pattern will return on Saturday bringing the Mid-Atlantic region a chance of showers, maybe even an isolated thunderstorm. Another system has an even better shot at producing showers around here from Sunday night into Monday...sandwiched in between these two systems we’ll try to squeeze out a decent Mother’s Day with sun followed by late day clouds, but late day showers are possible. Yet another shower threat could reach the Mid-Atlantic by mid-week.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1778172169551-BX5I7AIOCMGXJOFDS3AK/DC-Night.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1458" height="415"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *Chance of showers on Saturday...maybe a PM thunderstorm...another shot at showers later Sunday into Monday*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | *Next opportunity for showers comes on Saturday and a second one on Sunday night/Monday*</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/7/600-am-next-opportunity-for-rain-comes-on-saturday-and-a-second-one-on-sunday-nightmonday-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:69fb6c033459aa771c1217bd</guid><description><![CDATA[There was some beneficial rainfall on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic as a 
cold front approached the region and there will be other opportunities for 
showers in coming days. After a dry day to end the work week on Friday, the 
next disturbance will arrive on Saturday and showers are possible in the 
area. By Sunday night and Monday, another system will increase the chance 
of showers as the unsettled weather pattern continues into the early part 
of next week.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Becoming partly sunny, a bit cooler, cannot rule out a shower, highs in the middle 60’s; NW winds around 5-10 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Partly cloudy, chilly, lows in the mid-to-upper 40’s </p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Sun followed by clouds, breezy, mild, upper 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Friday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Partly cloudy, cool, maybe an late night shower, lower 50’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Partly sunny, mild, chance of showers, maybe a PM thunderstorm, low-to-mid 70’s </p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Sun followed by increasing clouds, warm, near 80 degrees; chance of showers at night </p><p class=""><strong>Monday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, cooler, chance of AM showers, middle 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Tuesday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, mild, upper 60’s</p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">There was some beneficial rainfall on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic as a cold front approached the region and there will be other opportunities for showers in coming days. After a dry day to end the work week on Friday, the next disturbance will arrive on Saturday and showers are possible in the area. By Sunday night and Monday, another system will increase the chance of showers as the unsettled weather pattern continues into the early part of next week.</p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1778084893383-8RWO0H53UK8CZTZUZQSJ/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | *Next opportunity for showers comes on Saturday and a second one on Sunday night/Monday*</media:title></media:content></item><item><title>6:00 AM | **Beneficial rainfall on the way...showers today and tonight...threat again on Saturday....threat again on Sunday night and Monday**</title><category>DC</category><dc:creator>Paul Dorian</dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 06 May 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2026/5/6/600-am-cold-front-approaches-today-and-brings-us-occasional-showersmaybe-a-thunderstorm-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97:565305f8e4b0b06e49b0a8f0:69f9e2f28114d31ee8428d7f</guid><description><![CDATA[A cold front approaches the region today and it will bring us some 
beneficial rainfall with a shower threat from this morning on through the 
evening hours. The front stalls out on Thursday and low pressure will form 
along the boundary zone; however, the best chance for showers will be just 
to our south and east. High pressure takes back control of the weather to 
close out the work week on Friday and then the next disturbance can produce 
some shower activity around here on Saturday and yet another system on 
Sunday night and Monday.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class=""><strong>6-Day forecast for the Washington, D.C. metro region </strong></p><p class=""><strong>Today</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, quite breezy, not as warm as yesterday, occasional showers and maybe a PM thunderstorm, highs near 75 degrees; S-SW winds around 10-20 mph; gusts to 30 mph</p><p class=""><strong>Tonight</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, breezy, turning cooler, occasional showers and maybe a thunderstorm, lows in the lower 50’s </p><p class=""><strong>Thursday</strong></p><p class="">Becoming partly sunny, cooler, chance of a shower or two, lower 60’s for afternoon highs</p><p class=""><strong>Thursday Night&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p><p class="">Partly cloudy, chilly, middle 40’s for late night lows </p><p class=""><strong>Friday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly sunny, breezy, mild, upper 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Saturday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, mild, occasional showers possible, lower 70’s </p><p class=""><strong>Sunday</strong></p><p class="">Sun followed by increasing clouds, warm, chance of late day or nighttime showers, upper 70’s</p><p class=""><strong>Monday</strong></p><p class="">Mainly cloudy, cooler, chance of showers and thunderstorms, upper 60’s </p><p class=""><strong>Discussion</strong></p><p class="">A cold front approaches the region today and it will bring us some beneficial rainfall with a shower threat from this morning on through the evening hours. The front stalls out on Thursday and low pressure will form along the boundary zone; however, the best chance for showers will be just to our south and east. High pressure takes back control of the weather to close out the work week on Friday and then the next disturbance can produce some shower activity around here on Saturday and yet another system on Sunday night and Monday. </p><p class="">Meteorologist Paul Dorian<br>Arcfield Weather</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content type="image/png" url="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1777984275640-YA33MICOYV95CUBFDE7H/DC-night1.png?format=1500w" medium="image" isDefault="true" width="1500" height="312"><media:title type="plain">6:00 AM | **Beneficial rainfall on the way...showers today and tonight...threat again on Saturday....threat again on Sunday night and Monday**</media:title></media:content></item></channel></rss>