EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD finally made a clear break above 1.3000 resistance yesterday, topped at 1.3106 but closed a little bit lower at 1.03075. This fact could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3213/70 region before testing 1.3340. However, as you can see on my daily chart below, we have a trendline resistance which is located around 1.3120 that need to be broken to the upside before continue the bullish pressure. Immediate support at 1.3045/20 region. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2950/30 support area but overall we are still in strong upside phase and I still prefer buy on dips.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but still within a strong bullish context. Immediate support at 1.5580 area. Consistent move below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.5470 key support level but I still prefer to buy on dips as long as price move inside the bullish channel. On the upside, a clear break above 1.5685 resistance area could trigger further upside pressure targeting 1.5750/60 before testing 1.5815

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum after break below my trendline support and now seems ready to test 86.33/25 key support area. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 85.86 even 84.82 region. However, we know that 86.33/25 region could be a strong support at this phase. Not to mention that we also have a falling wedge formation as a bullish warning. A failure to break below 86.33/25 and a break above the falling wedge could trigger another upside pullback testing 87.00/50 resistance area, but the main scenario remains bearish.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum after break below 1.0560/40 yesterday, slipped below 1.0399 and now struggling around that area. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0320 before testing 1.0220 especially if price able to move consistently below 1.0399. immediate resistance at 1.0500. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone but the main scenario remains bearish and I still prefer to short on rallies.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday but we had some bearish pressure earlier today in Asian session and price is now back below 113.50. The way I see it, it is a false breakout which potentially trigger a bearish pressure testing the trendline support (white) and 111.60/50 support area especially if price consistently move below 112.70/60 support area. However from a longer term perspective this fact lead us back into range and neutral area of 113.50 – 108.07.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, back below the range area and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session. We have a false breakout scenario here which usually trigger a bearish pressure testing 133.70 area even could push price lower testing 130.50 in longer term. Only another movement above 136.30 could potentially continue the bullish correction scenario.

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9042 and closed at 0.9003. The main scenario remains bullish but as long as we have the rising wedge formation I will keep out from the market. The rising wedge formation is a bearish warning that I don’t want to ignore. Immediate resistance which also the nearest term bullish targets is seen at 0.9070 and 0.9135 area. On the downside, initial support remains at 0.8858.

EUR/USD closed higher on Thursday and is challenging the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/JPY closed lower on Thursday as it extends Wednesday’s short covering rebound. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If it extends Tuesday’s rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below this month’s low crossing are needed to renew this year’s decline.

GBP/USD closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/CHF closed lower on Thursday and renewed the decline off June’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it renews Tuesday’s rally, the 25% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing is the next upside target. If it extends the decline off June’s high, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing is the next upside target.

EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/JPY closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If it extends Tuesday’s rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday’s low crossing are needed to renew this year’s decline.

GBP/USD closed higher due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/CHF closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends Tuesday’s decline, the 25% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday’s high crossing are needed to renew the aforementioned rally.

The EURUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. Price still unable to consistently move above 1.3000 and we know that it is a very strong resistance, which could produce bullish exhaustion and downside consolidation unless price able to break above 1.3045 area, targeting 1.3120 before testing 1.3270 – 1.3340 region. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase. Immediate support at 1.2900 – 1.2880 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.2735 key support area.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on Daily chart, pause the bullish momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.5470. Break below that area could trigger further downside pullback but as long as price move inside the bullish channel wee area still in strong bullish phase. On the upside potential bullish targets remains at 1.5685 and 1.5815 region.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that price is now testing the trendline support indicating critical phase. Break below the trendline support could trigger further bearish pressure testing 86.82/33 region and could potentially end the upside correction. Immediate resistance at 88.23/11 area

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday but still able to move above 1.0560/40 support area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Consistent move below 1.0560/40 and a break below the trendline support (red) could end the upside correction testing 1.0500 – 1.0480 before targeting 1.0399 key support area. On the upside, 1.0675 – 1.0750 remains the bullish correction nearest targets.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday and slipped below 113.50 indicating potential bullish failure and a false breakout scenario. I will stand aside from this phase for now. Immediate support at 112.70/60 region. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 111.60/50 area. On the upside, 115.50 and 117.00 remains the nearest bullish targets.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 137.55 but closed lower at 136.18. On h1 chart below we have a descending triangle formation indicating potential bearish in nearest term especially if price breakdown below the triangle targeting 135.50/15 region. On the other hand, breakout above the triangle could trigger further upside momentum re-testing 137.55 as bearish scenario fails.

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. The rising wedge formation bearish warning is now become more real, threat the bullish scenario especially if price able to move consistently below the formation and 0.8858 key support area at least testing 0.8770. Immediate resistance at 0.8980 area. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9025/70 region

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Today’s beige book report, compiled in preparation for the August 10 FOMC meeting, provided a much more qualified characterization of the recovery among the 12 Fed districts compared to the report prepared in advance of the June 22-23 FOMC. Although the report opened by stating that economic activity continued to grow, the qualifier “on balance” quickly followed. This qualifier reflected that while eight Districts seemingly indicated that economic activity improved, albeit modestly, two Districts indicated steady activity with two Districts, Atlanta and Chicago, indicating the pace of activity had slowed recently. In June, it was indicated that economic activity had improved in all 12 Fed Districts.

The greatest source of weakness seemed to emanate from real estate and construction. On the housing side, it was reported that “nearly all Districts reported sluggish housing markets” although this was in large part due to the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit April 30. The picture was bleaker for the commercial and industrial real estate side of the economy, where markets “continued to struggle in all 12 Fed Districts” and did not reflect any payback from some earlier strength.

Discussion of consumer spending was somewhat more upbeat with reports that “retail sales during the early summer months were generally positive, although in most Districts the increases were modest.” It was noted, however, that necessities tended to be the strong sellers with “big-ticket items” moving more slowly.

The assessment of the manufacturing sector was that activity “in most Districts continued to move up,” although it was the case that activity had slowed or levelled off in six of those Districts. In June, it was stated that manufacturing activity was gradually improving in all 12 Districts.

The characterization of labour markets was that “market conditions improved in several Districts” led by gains in New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, Richmond and Atlanta. Four districts noted “that they continued to rely in temporary staff over permanent hires.” Within the Dallas area, it was noted there were significant layoffs in the energy sector related to the moratorium on deepwater drilling in the gulf region.

With high unemployment persisting, it was reported that “wage pressure remained largely contained” and that “prices of goods and services were relatively stable in most Districts.”

Most districts reported that bank lending standards remained restrictive.

Today’s beige book report implies some easing in the pace of growth. Although some of this deterioration may be attributable to earlier strength in areas such as housing that borrowed from subsequent periods, this was not generally the case. This slowing implies even less progress in terms of reducing a still high unemployment rate. Thus, with inflation likely to remain very low, the central bank is unlikely to be in any rush to start tightening. Our forecast does not have the Fed funds being hiked until the second quarter of 2011.

EUR/USD closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/JPY closed higher on Tuesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If it extends today’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday’s high crossing are needed to renew this year’s rally.

GBP/USD closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/CHF closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends today’s decline, the 25% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday’s high crossing are needed to renew the aforementioned rally.

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3045 but again, failed to consistently move above 1.3000 so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I believe we are still in strong upside phase unless price break below 1.2735 region. Immediate support at 1.2950 followed by 1.2880. On the upside, 1.3120 remains the nearest bullish target.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5600 and closed at 1.5594. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 1.5685. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.5815. Immediate support at 1.5470 (former resistance). Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone but overall we are still in upside phase.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above my minor trendline resistance as you can see on my h1 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 88.23 area before testing 89.10. However note that the major scenario remains to the downside. Immediate support at 87.30 region. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 86.82.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF finally broke above the range area, topped at 1.0640 and closed at 1.0599. This bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.0675 and 1.0750 area but note that the major trend remains bearish. Immediate support at 1.0560/40 region. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0500 area.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY finally broke above the range area of 113.50 – 108.07 , topped at 114.41 and closed at 114.21. This fact change my medium mode into bullish outlook testing 115.50 before targeting 117.00 region. Another downside pullback below 113.50 would lead us into neutral and no trade zone but overall we are still in upside correction phase which begin from 107.50.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY also made a breakout from the range area yesterday, topped at 137.21 and closed at 136.99. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 138.18 – 139.38 before targeting 140.56 region. On the downside, immediate support at 136.30 (former resistance). Break below that area could lead us into neutral and no trade zone testing 135.30

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. Like I said, although the main scenario remains bullish, the bearish warning indicated by the rising wedge can not be ignored especially if price break below 0.8858 area testing 0.8740 even 0.8630 region. Immediate resistance at 0.9070. Break above that area could continue the bullish scenario testing 0.9140 and 0.9380 area. I will stay away from this pair for now.

The EURUSD touched 1.3000 area yesterday but still unable to move consistently above that psychological/key level so far. On h4 chart below we can see that we may have a triple top formation around 1.3000. Consistent move above 1.3000 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3120 even higher. On the other hand, break below 1.2735 confirms the triple top scenario and could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook. Immediate support at 1.2950 (23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.2793 – 1.3005). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.2875 (61.5% Fibo retracement of 1.2793 – 1.3005).

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD slipped above 1.5470 resistance area indicating potential further upside pressure at least targeting 1.5573 (February 23 high) before testing 1.5685 region (February 18 high). Another move below 1.5470 could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5400 but overall we are still in strong bullish phase and I prefer buy the dips strategy at this phase.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday and now back below 87.00. My short term technical study is a a little bit mess for this pair but overall the major scenario remains to the downside with nearest bearish target around 86.25 – 85.86 before re-testing 84.80 area. Immediate resistance at 87.50 followed by 88.23.

USDCHF Outlook

As you can see on my h4 below, the USDCHF is moving inside a rectangle area indicating consolidation after significant bearish momentum. We need a break from the range area to see clearer direction. Break above 1.0560 could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.0650/70 while a break below 1.0399 could continue the major bearish scenario targeting 1.0320 and 1.0220 region.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. Price so far unable to stay consistently above 113.50 area indicating limited upside pressure. Overall price still trapped in range area of 113.50 – 108.07. We need a consistent move above 113.50 to continue the bullish correction testing 115.50. Immediate support at 112.25 followed by 111.50/60 region

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 135.60 but closed lower at 134.64. Overall we are still in range area of 136.30 – 130.50 and I will keep stay away from this pair for now. On h1 chart below we have a descending triangle formation indicating potential downside pressure especially if price break below the triangle testing 133.70/20 support area. On the upside, we need a clear break above 136.30 resistance area to confirm the bullish scenario testing 139.38 region.

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The main scenario remains bullish but the rising wedge bearish scenario warning is still there and we need price to violate the formation with strong momentum to continue the bullish scenario targeting 0.9140 before testing 0.9380 in longer term. On the downside, only a break below 0.8858 and the rising wedge formation could be considered as potential bullish failure.