EUR/USD closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. If it extends last week’s rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing would renew the decline off August’s high.

USD/JPY closed lower due to profit taking on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Monday’s low crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

GBP/USD closed lower on Monday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If it extends last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

USD/CHF closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of this summer’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signalling that at the very least a correction is possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it extends this summer’s rally, the 2009 high crossing is the next upside target.

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday, but we had bearish pressure earlier today in Asian session, hit 1.2789 at the time I wrote this comment. On h1 chart below we can see the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating potential bullish failure at least testing 1.2777 – 1.2740 support area. CCI in oversold area and heading up in h1 chart so watch out for potential upside pullback testing 1.2854 region. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone as nearest term direction would be unclear. Above 1.2854, next resistance to be tested is 1.2930, which is my key level in medium term

GBPUSD Outlook

Overall the GBPUSD still move in choppy market in the last three weeks, but the main scenario remains to the downside. On h1 chart below we can see the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating potential bearish view but we have a good support at the trend line support (white) as you can see on my h1 chart below. We need a clear break below the trend line support to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.5250 region. CCI in neutral area on h1 chart. Immediate resistance at the minor trend line resistance (yellow) and 1.5415. Break above that area could trigger further upside recovery testing 1.5450 – 1.5487 area.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. Overall price has been indecisive since last week but the main scenario remains bearish. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as there is no significant technical move so far and we might see one if price break below 83.59 or above the trend line resistance. Break above the trend line resistance could be a beginning of bullish reversal in nearest term while break below 83.59 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 83.35 even 81.77 in longer term view.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF break below the minor bullish channel indicating potential bearish continuation as you can see on my h1 chart below testing 1.0065/30 region. However CCI just cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for potential upside pullback testing 1.0130. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone as direction would be unclear in nearest term but the main scenario remains bearish. Immediate resistance at 1.0182 followed by 1.0220.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY had a significant bearish movement, break below the minor bullish channel indicating potential bearish view in nearest term testing the lower line of the major bullish channel and 107.00 area but note that as long as the major bullish channel hold, we are still in upside correction phase. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h1 chart indicating potential upside pullback testing 108.25. Break above that area could trigger further upside momentum testing 109.20 and keep the bullish correction scenario remains strong.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 128.65 but overall I think we are still in consolidation phase and need a clear break below strong support 128.65 to continue the bearish scenario testing 127.64 and 126.75 area. On the upside, consistent move above 130.80 could trigger further upside correction. I will keep stand aside.

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price is struggling around the trend line resistance. The major scenario remains bullish but need a clear break above the trend line to continue upside pressure testing 0.9220, which is my key level from longer term point of view. Break above 0.9220 could trigger further bullish scenario testing 0.9381. Immediate support at 0.9115. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 0.9040 but as long as price move inside the bullish channel the major scenario remains bullish.

Currency pair USD/CHF

Presumably, the price has started wave formation v of (iii). If the assumption is true, it is necessary to expect continuation of a descending trend as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle.

Currency pair EUR/USD

Presumably, the price has started formation of a correctional wave iv of (c) of [b]. If the assumption is true, after its termination, it is possible to expect one more throw of euro upwards as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle v of (c).

Currency pair GBP/USD.

Probably, the wave [A] of (d) a horizontal Triangle [b] of X is generated. If the assumption is true, after the termination of a correctional wave [b] of (d) it is possible to expect local falling of pair as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle [C] of (d).

Currency pair USD/JPY.

Presumably, the price has started wave formation [Y] of v of (v). Probably, within the limits of its construction the wave (A) of [Y] is already generated. If the assumption is true, after the wave termination (B), it is possible to expect pair falling, as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle (C) of [Y].

Currency pair AUD USD

The Australian continues to come nearer to critical level of the considered scenario. In this connection, there is a sense to consider becoming ripe alternative. Probably, at the senior level the large Zigzag [A] – [b] – [C] of b develops. Within the limits of its construction, the price has started formation of an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle of a wave (5) of [C] of b. At smaller level it is not absolutely clear yet, what model will be chosen by the price as a wave (5) of [C]. The pair of possible variants is put on the chart. In the basic variant, a certain correctional design 4 of (v) is presumably formed. Probably, it will be a Flat or a horizontal Triangle in which frameworks the wave [b] of 4 comes to an end. If the assumption is true, after the Zigzag termination [b] of 4 steams will decrease as a wave [c]? of 4. In too time, at the given stage, the prospective Zigzag [b] of 4 can be transformed to an impulse then transition to alternative specified in the top part of the chart is possible.

EUR/USD closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. If it extends last week’s rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing would renew the decline off August’s high.

USD/JPY closed higher on Friday but the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday’s low crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

GBP/USD closed higher due to short covering on Friday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If it extends last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

USD/CHF closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this summer’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bullish signalling that at the very least a correction is possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it extends this summer’s decline, the 2009 low crossing is the next downside target.

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HY Markets

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday after price break above the trend line resistance as you can see on my h1 chart below. This fact could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2930 key resistance area like I said on my weekly summary. We are still in upside correction phase here. Break above 1.2930 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3115. On the downside, immediate support at 1.2830 area. Break below that area and violation to the downside of the bullish channel could diminish the bullish outlook and keep the medium bearish outlook intact.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum on Friday after break above the triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact could trigger further upside correction testing the trend line resistance and 1.5525 – 1.5575 region in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.5420. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5350 area and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 85.21 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 84.41. This fact should keep the major bearish scenario intact with 83.59 as the nearest level to be re-tested. On the upside, only a move above the trend line resistance could be a serious threat to the current bearish outlook.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF slipped above 1.0220 on Friday but closed lower at 1.0170. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Price still move inside the minor bullish channel indicating we are still in upside correction phase but only a break above the trend line resistance (red) could seriously threat the major bearish outlook. On the downside we need a clear break below 1.0130 and the minor bullish channel to continue the downside pressure testing 1.0030.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY slipped above 109.20 on Friday after break above the minor trend line resistance but unable to move consistently below 109.20 so far. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a new minor bullish channel (blue channel) indicating strong bullish correction but need a consistent move above 109.20 to continue the upside correction testing 110.40 region. Immediate support at 108.25 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure towards 107.65 before testing the lower line of the major bullish channel but as long as the major bullish channel hold we are still in upside correction phase.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, slipped above 130.80 but closed lower at 130.50. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains bearish but further upside correction is still potential since the rejection to move below 128.65 support area testing the upper line of the bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 131.65 (Friday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further upside correction. On the downside we need a clear break below 128.65 to continue the bearish scenario. I will stand aside for now.

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday topped at 0.9174 and closed at 0.9166. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9220 but we may have an important resistance around that level as price may form a double top formation. We need a clear break above 0.9220 to confirm the bullish continuation testing 0.9381 area. Immediate support at 0.9115. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9040 region.

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EURJPY

Presumably, the price forms a correctional wave iv of (iii). Probably, it takes the form of a horizontal Triangle. However considering that overcoming of conditional critical level can break its geometry, it is possible a wave (iv) of (iii) accept other form. But anyhow, if the assumption is true, after its end it is possible to expect falling of pair as impulse or Diagonal Triangle construction v of [iii].

EURGBP

While the price justifies expectations. Presumably, impulse construction [iii] of 1 has begun. It is clear, what in the course of its formation the working counting will vary, not one of possible variants is presented those in drawing – probably, the impulse (i) is at present formed? of [iii].

EURCHF

Presumably, has begun formation of a correctional wave [iv] a prospective impulse 5 of () After which termination, pair falling will proceed, From a practical side, at the given stage, it is difficult to assume the most probable form of the future correction. As usually, in such situation, it is expedient to occupy a waiting attitude, and to give the chance to the price to generate models of smaller level which will be the help in identification of larger models.

GBPJPY

Most likely formation of a correctional wave (iv) a prospective impulse [v] of C proceeds. Probably, it becomes a Triangle or other form of a Corrective Combination. If the assumption is true, such situation can last over the weekend then it is possible to expect continuation of decrease in pair as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle (v) of [v].

USDCAD

Presumably, the Canadian has started formation of a new intermediate term descending trend – an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle With of (B). Probably, the wave [i] is formed? of C in which frameworks the impulse (iii) of [i], at present, is formed. If the assumption is true, locally, it is possible to expect continuation of falling of pair in Impulsive Style.

AUDUSD

Within the limits of the changed counting (look the analysis for September in section the monthly analysis) presumably, the correctional wave 2 of (3) is formed. However, the dangerous affinity of the price to critical level puts the considered scenario on a cancellation side. We will wait, if it occurs, the scenario will be reconsidered.

Currency pair USD/CHF

The assumption is visible about, the wave termination iv of (iii) was a little premature. However while, expectations have not changed. Probably, the wave iv of (iii) has become a deep Zigzag which by the present moment is finished. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect continuation of a descending trend as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle v of (iii).

Currency pair EUR/USD

Presumably, within the limits of impulse construction (с) of [b] finishes formation a wave iii of (c) If the assumption truly, after its termination can expect superficial correction iv of (c) then one more throw as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle v of (c), logically, should follow. Such are expectations for a week, however, as it often happens, the price in this respect can have other opinion.

Currency pair GBP/USD.

While expectations remain former. Formation of a correctional wave [b] of X presumably proceeds. In the circumstances it becomes clear, that a prospective Flat, starts to give way to more difficult combination – probably, it will be a Triangle or other form of a Corrective Combination. If the assumption is true, such situation can last over the weekend.

Currency pair USD/JPY.

Presumably, the wave v a Diagonal Triangle (v) of [c] will become a Double Zigzag. The possible variant is shown its counting in drawing. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect continuation of a descending trend as construction of the rest of a wave v of (v).

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Admiral Markets

Notes

The Wave Analysis it for today the most flexible, powerful and perspective tool which allows to predict tendencies which lead to certain changes on financial charts on all time pieces.

One of properties of this tool is its insufficient formalisation, proceeding from it the opinion of the author of the forecast made on the basis of the Wave Analysis always is subjective.

As the Wave Structure constantly varies, the forecast on the basis of the Wave Analysis reflects opinion of the author at the moment of the forecast publication.

The Wave Analysis is not trading system. It not the generator of signals on the conclusion or an exit from the transaction, therefore the schematical direction of movement of the price put on the chart should not be for the trader the guide to action on opening of positions.

In case of formation in the market of conditions which, according to the author it is possible to use for drawing up of the trading plan – on a chart levels of acknowledgement of the chosen scenario, optimum areas of an input and levels of cancellation of the chosen scenario will be specified in addition.

The USD was in consolidation/ correction mode this week ahead of the NFP. This is in a sense the market’s way of paring some overextended USD gains, but also offers a chance for the market to continue with greenback strength. There was some dollar strength immediately after the release, but when the ISM manufacturing data came out worse than expected, the market went back to dollar weakness. It appears that the USD may be turning the corner and will correct further next week.

EUR/USD – 1.29/1.2950 is Wave C Projection

4H and Day: The EUR/USD pair is in a bullish mode at least in the short-term and continues to do so after the NFP.

Even the alternate count was looking at 1.29/1.2950 as the target.

However this is an area of strong resistance. If the market breaks above 1.2950, it is very likely that it has turned bullish.

Otherwise, the market may may ranging. It is not longer bearish, as reflected by the strong momentum in the RSI reading rising above 70.

The decline from 1.2900/1.2950 should not break below 1.2770, which is the end of wave I, or A. If it breaks below, then we may have the ABC count scenario, instead of the I, II, III count scenario, and the market would be bearish.

The daily chart shows the market in a bullish mode after the RSI broke above 70 in August, but has yet successfully broken below 40. A break above 60 confirms bullish continuation in the intermediate term.

Note that the market broke above a longer intermediate trendline, and then broke below a shorter-intermediate trendline.

Dynamics might lead to a ranging market, which is why I anticipate resistance near the 1.29/1.2950 area, and decline to 1.28.

USD/JPY – Market Continue to Prefer JPY to USD after NFP and ISM

Daily: The USD/JPY continues to be pressured. There is not much new information, except for Friday’s rejection of a rally.

The market is seen to target 83.00 in the next week.

There should not be consideration of bullish or ranging mode yet until the market can break close a 4H candle above 85.60.

In fact if the market reaches that area, it may be prudent to look for topping action and bearish continuation.

GBP/USD – The Bearish Scenario

4H and Day: The 4H chart is showing a rally attempt, possibly a 2-swing attempt that can extend to 1.5520 area.

The 1.5500 area is an important resistance already, so topping may start there in case of a continuation decline.

Also, that would be a completed AB=CD or Gartley retracement pattern.

The daily shows that if the 1.5328 area (38.2% retracement) is broken, as the next level of support is near 1.5116 (50% retracement) level.

This bearish scenario is invalid if the RSI in the 4H chart breaks above 60 and stays above. The price action should also break above 1.5550.

Then we may be turning the corner and the USD may start losing again. Otherwise, a decline towards 1.5116 is the anticipated move in the coming weeks.

USD/CAD Measured Moves are More Important Then Pattern

4H and Day: As anticipated in the USD/CAD posts this week, the market broke below the 1.50 level and developed a double top.

A pattern breakout projection targets 1.0330 area (near 61.8% retracement).

I am just not very bearish on the paid because it is ranging. In a ranging market, it may not always be prudent to anticipate swings from resistance to support.

A conservative target is between 50 and 61.8% retracement.

This is the equilibrium level of the range that has formed between 1.0150 and 1.0650.

EUR/GBP Developing a Double Top

Day: The daily chart shows the EUR/GBP going up against a declining trendline.

The market is reacting by pausing the rally at 50% retracement, 0.8350 level.

Note the RSI is remaining under 60 for now and is turning lower.

The 0.8400 area is 61.8% retracement, and is the resistance zone for this pair. Will the market extend a little further ? Or will there be topping action here at 0.8350?

In any case, the bearish scenario is invalid if the market breaks above the 78.6% retracement area and previous support at the 0.8450/60 area.

If the bearish scenario follows through, we have 2 suggested swing projections that target the zone between 0.7850 and 0.7950.

4H: The 4h chart shows the market in a possible double top development. The market needs to break below 0.8300 for the double top to be established.

Even after a break, there is a possible rally when the market tests the previous resistance area as support (0.8280).

Watch for a pullback, and if the pullback does not rally above the middle of the double top (0.8325), then the market confirms the topping action and suggests a decline towards at least 0.8230 area (61.8% retracement).

The 0.82 area is the ultimate test of the bullish scenario, which is possible as the RSI signals bullish momentum, and the market did breakout above 0.8280 area. That is why that is an important pivot to monitor.

If the market can break below 0.8200, then looking back at the daily, we have a possible swing projection.

Looking at the possible level for a stop (0.8465) and a possible target (0.7950), an entry near 0.8270 yields a reward to risk ratio near 1.6:1.

AUD/USD Stalking Path to 0.94/0.95 area.

Daily and 4H: There was a head and shoulders pattern developing a few weeks ago.

This week invalidated that pattern.

$he market is heading to the previous short-term high (in the daily chart) at 0.9220, then 0.94 area, which was the high in April.

The RSI in the daily remains bullish as it stays above 40

As a matter of fact, looking at the daily, if we project wave I onto wand is breaking 60 again.ave V, which is what the current rally is, it targets the 0.9550 area.

In the 4H chart however, we see a bearish divergence, but the market broke an important level at 0.91, so I do not expect a strong decline.

If there is one, I would watch for bottoming at 0.9030 area (previous short-term high in the 4H chart).

If that breaks, we should consider the market in sideways and not bullish mode.

GBP/JPY Breaking Above Congestion Pattern

Day and 4H: The GBP/JPY is ain a decline, but is at the moment supported at 128.70, just above the May low near 127.50.

The 4H chart shows the market in a 2-swing rally that was rejected at the 61.8% retracement level at 131.75. This completes a Gartley retracement pattern. A similar one occurred previously with the market topping at 133.50.

The swing projections suggest a target zone between 127.50 and 127.00 area.

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FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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