Virginia voters are going to face a flood of political commercials, attacks and all sorts of partisan shenanigans this fall, and they might have a heap of trouble figuring out who they're hearing from.

This spring the Democratic Governor's Association dumped $3 million into a Virginia political action committee named Common Sense Virginia. The attack PAC didn't pay any attention to Democrat Creigh Deeds or his primary opponents Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran. Instead the group bankrolled millions in campaign commercials going after Republican Bob McDonnell - so the GOP standard-bearer couldn't simply sit back and watch his rivals duke it out.  

You might remember their voice-over-guy:  

Enter the Republican Governor's Association, which this week set up a Virginia political action committee called - get this - Virginia Common Sense. Great catch by the folks over at the Virginia Public Access Project - the non-partisan money tracking watchdog.

Seems someone over at the RGA has either a cheeky sense of humor or a serious lack of imagination. But either way, it is going to get more and more confusing to figure out where the attacks are really coming from. 

Democrats and Republicans across the country are paying a ton of attention to the Virginia gubernatorial election, as you can see from the $3 million the DGA spent before July on a November election. That sort of attention, and the free-wheeling nature of Virginia's fundraising laws means that Virginia voters are going to have to wade through a sea of sound bytes, attacks and slanted information to make it to the ballot box.

It is going to be vital for voters to pay attention to where the information is coming from, because with names this similar - it'll send the average voter's head spinning.

Better prepare your partisan decontamination suit.   

Republican Bob McDonnell's campaign is touting his nearly $5 million in the bank and the number of donors to his campaign so far. 

The fundraising period of May 28 to June 30 wasn't quite as kind to McDonnell as it was to Democrat Creigh Deeds, who was able to pull down $3.4 million. Deeds team has to be pleased with those numbers, but they also know that they had some make up work to do following the three way Democratic primary between Deeds, Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe.

Deeds stunning, overwhelming primary victory on June 9 was most certainly a windfall for his campaign because Democrats on the fence were finally able to get involved in the race against McDonnell, and the folks who had stepped up to back the other two contenders could put their collective eight behind Deeds.

But the Republicans are looking at this race for the long haul which is why they're focusing on the fact that they have a lot of donors ponying up to the table for less than $100. Partisan wranglers love the small donations because they give grassroots credibility to a campaign, coupled with the fact that McDonnell has a healthy reserve built up and you can probably bet that both sides are claiming victory right now - and belittling the numbers coming out fro m the other side. 

The reality is that Deeds and McDonnell aren't hot and heavy on the campaign trail right now. Some of it may be that the campaigns need time to regroup and plot strategy and fill campaign coffers now that the official matchup is set. But you have to wonder if both campaigns aren't getting some of the feedback from politics weary voters who are working on two solid years in campaign mode in Virginia thanks to John McCain and Barack Obama. 

Voter fatigue is a very real thing in Virginia right now, even some traditional Democrats weren't ready to get jazzed up about the Democratic primary. I'm gonna let the Democrats sort this one out," was a refrain we heard more than a few times on the campaign trail.

But you'll hear plenty of crowing from both sides about the fundraising numbers, and we haven't even gone through the names to see if any prominent folks are pledging odd allegiances. So here's the text of McDonnell's release.

The gubernatorial campaign of Bob McDonnell announced today that it has far more money in the bank, from far more donors, than its Democratic opponent. The McDonnell campaign has almost $5 million cash on hand as of the end of the last reporting period. This total is nearly double the amount reported by the Deeds campaign. Officially the McDonnell campaign brought in over $1.8 million this period from 3,452 donors. That is nearly 1,000 more donors than the Deeds campaign. The McDonnell campaign had 2,181 donors who gave donations of $100 or less. 75% of McDonnell's donors are from Virginia.

Speaking about the fundraising numbers, McDonnell for Governor Campaign Manager Phil Cox remarked, "Our campaign enters the final four months of the race in a strong financial position to carry our positive message of new jobs and more opportunities to every region of the state. Despite the fact that we were on television for over half of the period, we maintain a nearly 2 to 1 cash on hand advantage over our opponent. Even more remarkable is the difference in where campaign donations are coming from. While a significant amount of our opponents' money was drawn from the compulsory dues of union members nationwide and the Democratic Governors Association, we were receiving the voluntary support of over 2,100 individual donors who each gave $100 or less. That's the sign of a campaign that is winning over voters. Today's report is a further demonstration of the broad appeal, and growing momentum, of our campaign. Virginians are rallying around Bob McDonnell's positive message."

The McDonnell campaign did not receive any donations from the Republican National Committee or the Republican Governors Association during this most recent fundraising period. With officially $4.92 million cash on hand, the McDonnell campaign has more money in the bank than the 2005 Kilgore campaign had at this same time.

Nice little interview with the head of the Republican Governors Association over at Fivethirtyeight.com - especially considering the fact that these kind of partisan organizations are going to be bigtime players in the fall campaign.

The interview covers a wide range of topics but it's the Virginia race for governor that we're keeping an eye on and so is Nick Ayers. Here are his thoughts on the race in Virginia and the matchup between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds. 

Make sure you read them closely because you're going to get a flavor of the tone and tenor of how conservatives will take on Deeds in the fall. Here's the Virginia snippet.

538: Turning to Virginia, a state often cited as turning away from Republicans, the Democrats are trying to win the governors race for a third time in a row. How would you rate Bob McDonnell's candidacy thus far, and what will it take for him to prevent Craigh Deeds and the Democrats from posting a third consecutive win?

Ayers: This race is a rematch of the 2005 Attorney General’s race which McDonnell won by 323 votes so it’s no surprise that it’s been a tight race since the Democratic primary. The Democrats have already spent over $3 million trying to tear down McDonnell’s favorability rating and it’s been largely ineffective because of the quality campaign that McDonnell has run. As Virginia voters learn more about the two candidates, I think more and more will break towards McDonnell. McDonnell is fighting to keep Virginia’s right to work laws and keep Virginia business friendly. Creigh Deeds is a tax-and-spender who stands with Big Labor.


538: On a related note, were you surprised that Deeds won Virginia's Democratic primary over two candidates with bigger names and deeper pockets?

Ayers: Terry McAuliffe unquestionably hurt Brian Moran, who never seemed to put together a plan for how he could win. In regards to McAuliffe, while campaign money may be the mother’s milk of politics, it still can’t make an ugly baby pretty. The more voters saw of McAuliffe the less they liked him. That said, Deeds ran a great campaign.

Here comes the cash.

Democrat Creigh Deeds is getting out ahead of the money game, touting his fundraising numbers from June - $3.4 million - in his race against Republican Bob McDonnell.

This is an important bellwether fundraising period during the fall races especially considering that this time period includes the aftermath of Deeds huge come from behind victory over Brian Moran andTerry McAuliffe.

So it'll be interesting to see who is giving to Deeds campaign and also to see if Deeds victory altered the donations that have been going at a steady clip to McDonnell's camp. 

This is also the beginning of a flare up of activity in the governor's race and also the various races for House of Delegates seats. It can be a make or break moment for House candidates hoping to get some serious help from partisan leaders in Richmond who are deciding where and when to commit resources and cash during the fall. Folks who come in with significant cash show the party that they are not shy about raising money and simply aren't waiting for the state folks to step in and bankroll their races. 

So expect to hear some fundraising numbers from the challengers on the Peninsula this week. We've got Democrat Robin Abbott taking on Republican Del. Phil Hamilton in a race that looks like it might get real expensive. Then you have Democrat Gary West challenging Republican Del. Glenn Oder, and independent Gordon Helsel and Democrat Sam Eure both taking on Republican Tom Gear. 

Plus this is going to be a big indicator for Democrat Jody Wagner running against Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Democrat Steve Shannon and Republican Ken Cuccinelli battling it out for the attorney general's office. 

Newport News attorney Gary West's effort to get to the House of Delegates is getting a nod from some national Democrats who like West's resume and chances.

On Monday, Democracy for America announced its support for West, a Democrat, who is pushing Del. G. Glenn Oder, R-Newport News, for the Peninsula seat. The release never even mentions Oder, focusing instead on West's work as an attorney specializing in asbestos cases brought by workers. 

Here's the bulk of the release - including the group touting his unanimous appointment to the Newport News Planning Commission as proof that he can bring people together. Seems like that's a lot to get out of a unanimous appointment to a city panel, but this is an endorsement so you can kind of expect them to get over excited about their candidate. To be fair, Democracy for America doesn't have to endorse anybody in House races so clearly they like what they know about West.   

West has dedicated his legal career to taking on big corporations and government bureaucracies. He, along with attorney Richard Glasser, were among the first in the country to pursue litigation on behalf of workers and their families who had been exposed to asbestos.

"Our members in Virginia know that Gary understands the needs of the community and will work to bring progress to Virginia," said Jim Dean, Chair of Democracy for America. "His experience will help him address the biggest problems facing the district—crime prevention and transportation."

West was appointed to the Newport News Planning Commission in 2001 and currently serves as Chairman of the Regulations Committee. He received his masters’ degree in political science from Virginia Tech before attending law school at Loyola University School of Law in New Orleans.

"Gary's unanimous appointment to the Commission proved he can bring people together in the name of progress," Dean said. "That's why we're proud to endorse him in this race."

Republicans are practically lining up to take on U.S. Rep. Glenn Nye in 2010. 

Nye, a Democrat, narrowly won Virginia's 2nd Congressional District away from Republican Thelma Drake, largely riding a Democratic wave built by Barack Obama and Mark Warner. Republicans know that Nye won't be able to rely on the power at the top of the ticket next fall, so they are gunning for him in Washington. 

Car dealer and longtime GOP money-man Scott Rigell is just the latest to go public with his congressional ambitions - almost a year and a half before voters head to the polls for the 2010 mid-term elections. Rigell, 49, has a military pedigree and the backing of Drake and a handful of prominent local Republicans - including Sen. Frank Wagner, Del. Bob Purkey and Del. Sal Iaquinto.  

Rigell is the founder and president of Freedom Automotive in Virginia Beach, and he has deep pockets for member of the GOP. Here's list of Rigell's donations to Virginia Republicans. He has been a huge wallet for Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell - shelling out more than $80,000 to McDonnell during various campaigns.

Rigell has also given generously at the federal level helping bankroll Drake's campaign and others. Rigell and his wife's federal donations list run through bigtime Republicans - George W. Bush, George Allen, John McCain, Randy Forbes, Oliver North and Ed Schrock. But those probably aren't the donations that we'll be hearing about during the Republican internicine fued to take on Nye - that's because there's a check in there for $1,000 to Barack Obama - dated March 3, 2008. 

Granted this appears to be an anomaly - and that was around the time when many members of the GOP were in an "anybody but Hillary Clinton" mode. But Rigell surely knows that this is going to be an issue with GOP activists. 

Meanwhile, Rigell has plenty of opponents to worry about before he gets to Nye. 

There's Chuck Smith, a lawyer, former Marine and one-time chairman of the Virginia Beach Republican Party - who has been running for months. Smith, an African-American- was wooing voters at this year's Shad Planking in Wakefield. 

Insiders expect at least a few folks to officially enter this race, including the sitting head of the Virginia Beach GOP Kenny Golden, a retired Navy SEAL named Ed Maulbeck, Ben Loyola the owner of a Virginia Beach engineering firm and Hampton resident Bert Mizusawa.

It's always hard to handicap a race so early, but it is interesting to note that Rigell managed to get a lot of big, early press when he announced that he is running - with articles in The Hill and The Virginian Pilot. That's the kind of thing that doesn't happen by accident - so Rigell clearly has some influential friends who are making his case with the movers and shakers in Washington. 

In fact the Hill article tells you pretty explicitly in a single sentence that Rigell appears to be the pick from inside the beltway. 

 "Rigell has been in talks with the national party, which is enthusiastic about his candidacy."

Meanwhile, Nye is feeding the GOP plenty of ammunition for the race. Nye recently voted against an environment and climate change bill in Washington. The bill passed anyway and Nye's office appears to be sending out dueling letters to folks on both sides of the issue. In one letter Nye touts his stand against the bill and then in the other he talks up the legislation as an important step toward saving the environment while not mentioning that he voted against it.

This is typical hedging for a politician, but the letters from Nye don't even have the one-sentence caveat at the very least acknowledging his vote. Or at least explaining why he voted against something that he appears to support. Folks don't like it when you look like too much of a tactician. 

 Just give the letters a read over at VBDEMS and you'll have a hard time believeing they came from the same office. 

 If success has many fathers and failure is an orphan, Nye's some kind of weird stepdad here.

Public Policy Polling put out new numbers giving Republican Bob McDonnell a 6-point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the race for Virginia governor, and within a few short hours the state GOP was touting the poll in an email blasted out to reporters. 

It probably helped that the poll showed all three of the GOP's candidates with comfortable margins. Pat Mullins, the head of the Republican Party of Virginia, was quick to talk about the implications of the poll. 

Here are Mullins' quotes:

“It’s pretty clear that any boost the Democrats may have gotten from the publicity surrounding their primary election has disappeared,” RPV Chairman Mullins said.  “It’s also obvious that the more Virginians tune into the race, the more they like our impressive slate of candidates.”

            “It’s clear that voters are hungry for candidates who have innovative ideas for how to bring jobs to Virginia and inject some energy into the economy,” Mullins said.  “Our Republican candidates best represent those ideas.”

            “While this is good news, we are aware that this campaign is a marathon and not a sprint,” Mullins said.  “We intend to run hard and strong and continue to spread our optimistic message of jobs and economic opportunity for all Virginians.”

But why is the GOP out there touting the poll and does that bestow Public Policy Polling a certain level of legitimacy in this race?  

And could the move force the state GOP into some excruciating mental and verbal back flips on the campaign trail during the fall?   

During the course of the remaining four-months of this campaign, it's probably safe to guess that the very same polling organization is going to offer up some numbers that don't sit well with Mullins and the rest of the GOP.

When Mullins doesn't like numbers in the future is he going to be able to ignore them, because they seem to have set a precedent that the RPV trusts the work done by Public Policy Polling.  

This gets especially tricky when you consider the fact that Public Policy Polling does private polling work exclusively for Democratic candidates - primarily in North Carolina. Just look at PPP's list of clients - if the section on "organizations and unions" doesn't tip you off, then pop the names on the list of lawmakers into Google - hint - they're all Democrats.

No one pays the company to conduct public polls, like the one testing the McDonnell vs. Deeds race. Those public polls are done independently on the company's own dime in races of interest - particularly races near North Carolina, according to the company's communications director Tom Jensen. 

Surely, Mullins and the RPV reserve the right to judge each and every poll in the race on an individual basis. But snatching up the first poll from PPP and blasting it out with an email megaphone makes it harder to scoff at their work down the line. 

Apparently having your name plastered across the top of every newspaper and newscast can help your popularity.

In the immediate aftermath of the three-way Democratic primary, Democrat Creigh Deeds was staked an early lead of Republican Bob McDonnell in the race for the governor's mansion.

But now a month after Deeds blew out Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe, McDonnell is back on top according the Public Policy Polling. McDonnell is leading 49 percent to Deeds' 43 percent. Even though I'm sure there will be plenty of hemming and hawing about the geographic, racial and ethnic make up of the sample - because there always is - in the grand scheme of things the numbers make sense.

Deeds was something of an afterthought in the race for governor until the final three weeks - when he made a major surge that peaked when he nailed down 50 percent of the vote and a heaping mound of news coverage - that was made up largely of cute word-play using his last name. So his numbers were artificially high in the early June sample. 

Meanwhile, the sample finds that Deeds isn't doing terribly well with the state's African-American population. That sample meshes with the fact that the only congressional district Deeds did not win in the primary was Rep. Robert C. "Bobby" Scott's rambling district which stretches from Richmond to Hampton Roads.

Those folks didn't have a lot of background knowledge on the rural Bath County Democrat, and Scott all but endorsed McAuliffe in the final days of the campaign. Needless to say, Deeds will have Scott on board in the fall - right in time for the picnic - along with President Barack Obama - who has pledged to campaign for Deeds. Obama ought to be able to muscle up some turnout in Virginia's black community. 

The poll finds that McDonnell is doing a good job connecting with independent voters where he has a whopping 54 to 33 advantage over Deeds. This is crucial swing portion of the electorate and McDonnell has been aggressively reaching out to them in a largely vanilla but omnipresent "Hey look I have a family" advertising campaign. McDonnell also took some bi-partisan steps with his "Virginians for McDonnell" organization - which includes folks who backed Mark Warner and Tim Kaine at the ballot box.  

In fact, the sample shows that Virginia might be ripe for the Republican revival that so many folks in the GOP are hoping to cultivate in the Commonwealth. The poll gives Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling a 46 to 40 lead over Democrat Jody Wagner and Republican Sen. Ken Cuccinelli a 45 to 38 lead over Steve Shannon.

Here's an interesting snippet that ought to give a little heartburn to both campaigns:  

The race is in a very similar position to 2005. The poll released that year closest to today's date of July 7th showed Jerry Kilgore with a 6 point lead identical to the one we found last week. The question now is whether McDonnell can hold onto this lead better than Kilgore did, or if Deeds will be able to replicate Tim Kaine's success in peaking at just the right time. He certainly did that in the primary.

 Click here to read the full report on Deeds versus McDonnell over at Public Policy Polling...

Republican Sarah Palin grabbed some headlines over the holiday weekend when she surprisingly announced her resignation as the chief executive of Alaska.

The move was totally unexpected in most political circles and with the usual news-void over a holiday weekend - it made for a great topic for chatter. Since no one really knows what's going on inside Palin's head a lot of people are taking pot-shot guesses and what's next for her. And there were plenty of local folks out there wondering just why Plain is stepping down and what it means to her budding national profile.

Virginia voters might get a close view real soon.

Republican Bob McDonnell is running probably the most closely watched GOP campaign in the country this fall - and he's bringing in a lot of big-time Republicans to help bolster his credentials and ignite some fires at the grassroots level. McDonnell has toured with for Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney - who many believe is building a organization to run for president again in 2012. McDonnell is also going to be leaning on the muscle at the Republican Governor's Association to take down Democrat Creigh Deeds. 

We've already seen the Democratic Governor's Associationgoing after McDonnell on the campaign trail in a big way - so it's not a stretch to expect some heat from the RGA as the campaign matures.

That leads us back to Palin and how she plots a path forward. Obviously she'll be able to make a healthy living booking speaking engagements with conservative groups and especially evangelical Christians - where she retains a huge amount of popularity. Palin can probably demand some big fees because she is such a draw in different parts of the country and because she basically went from nobody to hot topic in less than a year. That sort of rocket speed means that most folks around the country have only gotten a glimpse of her on the campaign trail when she was heavily managed and enduring a breakneck schedule.

An unleashed Palin - free from the reins of the GOP VP mantle and the top spot in Alaska - would probably be a very interesting speaker.  

Palin could also probably land a gig over at Fox News - it didn't take long from them to snatch up Mike Huckabee and Palin would probably make for a major ratings spike.  

So how does someone like Palin stay in the news while making the rounds to conventions and events that are typically behind the veil? 

In Virginia, Palin would likely find rich territory for political wrangling. If Palin visits the buzz will surround her intentions and her connections with the GOP base, and what better way to speak directly to the base than giving a commencement address at Regent University in Virginia Beach of Liberty University out west?

Both schools would probably be happy to host Palin - and the stage would give her a microphone to get into the national political discussion. Romney spoke at Regent to clear the air about his Mormon faith, Rudy Giuliani spoke there and got the endorsement of Pat Robertson, and John McCain spoke at Liberty to make up for calling Robertson and Jerry Falwell "agents of intolerance."

It'll be interesting to see how McDonnell handles Palin on the campaign trail because of the potential for blow-back. McDonnell obviously wants to get the support of folks who back Palin - that's his base - but he also doesn't want to lose out on the middle-of-the-road voters who usually end up deciding elections in Virginia.

No doubt, McDonnell's team knows that Palin comes with a oversized "handle with care" warning, just ask McCain.

Del. Phil Hamilton is facing his first campaign challenge in more than a decade, but he's not dusting off old school barnstorming techniques he's getting cutting edge.

Hamilton, a Newport News Republican, is the second in command of the House Appropriations Committee and he's getting pushed by Robin Abbott a Newport News attorney.

On Tuesday night, Hamilton hosted an hour long tele-townhall that focused on the new laws going onto the state books as of July 1. A tele-townhall essentially allows a candidate to call thousands of homes throughout their districts and offer folks the chance to listen in and even ask questions. On Tuesday night Hamilton called 15,000 homes in the 93rd district - basically the central Peninsula.

It's kind of like an interactive robo-call - where folks who don't give a hoot about state politics can opt to hang up the phone. But folks who want a chance to hear from Hamilton can get a good sense of how he interacts with the public and they also might get the chance to offer up a question.

This is getting to be a favorite technique for members of Congress because it is not an overly expensive option and it allows folks to turn a limited amount of time into personal contact with thousands of potential voters. And these are just potential voters - these are folks who have decided to listen in on Hamilton's call - so either they're interested in state politics or they are at the very least willing to hear a state lawmaker out.

Think about it from Hamilton's perspective - it's hard to believe that Hamilton can spend a better hour on the campaign trail. What other campaigning event carries that kind of weight - perhaps a campaign commercial - but then you're getting into the neighborhood of serious money. 

Hamilton versus Abbott is going to be a heavily watched race simply because of the importance of the Republican majority in the House of Delegates. The GOP has a shrinking advantage and if Democrats can win a handful of seats this fall they could take the helm over re-districting - which would be a huge blow to the prospects of a Republican revival starting in Virginia.

If Abbott can connect with Peninsula Democrats she should perform well in the 93 - which boasts a healthy Democratic population that hasn't been able to vote for a fellow Democrat for the House since the mid-1990s. Peninsula Democrats had new energy last year during Barack Obama's presidential campaign but we'll have to wait to see the enthusiasm in the fall. 

 Abbott has done well with early fundraising, thanks largely to the law firm where she works - Consumer Litigation Associates. But word among Peninsula Democrats is that Abbott is a tremendously hard worker, who is going to refuse to be out-hustled on the campaign trail. She's going to need that energy and stamina to knock off Hamilton, who relentlessly reminds voters in his district about what is going on in Richmond. 

Abbott is a political newcomer and Hamilton is already dialing up 15,000 homes in the district so he's clearly not taking anything for granted.