Eldon-Online

Just For Fun!

2012-01-02T09:38:32+08:00

One of my respected colleagues, with a sense of humour, from Beijing, sent me a list of 52 things to do this year that would lead to a happier and more productive 2012. It was accompanied by a long explanation of how these 52 things were supposed to enhance your life if you followed them.

I just thought, for a little bit of fun, that I would put my own brief comments by the side of each one to see how I would get on. Having done so, I have since been encouraged to share my "lifestyle" with others who have the time - or indeed the inclination to think of their own answers to these "life enhancing" suggestions.

1. Try rising early.   I do already
2. Do less.   Why? - I actually enjoy doing lots. It makes me happy.
3. Slow down.   What - until you come to a STOP? No thanks.
4. Practice patience.   But I do practice. I just haven't perfected it yet!
5. Practice compassion.   I am more for passion than compassion - but aren't they similar anyway?
6. Find your passion. Ah, okay - still looking.
7. Lose weight.   Absolutely, definitely, top of the list
8. Exercise.   Part of the one above.
9. Eat healthy.   But leave some room for the unhealthy. Actually, I prefer to say "eat anything but always in moderation!"
10. Meditate.   Never tried - it kind of seems like you might miss something while you're meditating.
11. Get organised.   I am - in a sort of disorganised way. Even if my desk is full of rubbish I usually know where to find what I am looking for.
12. Think positive.   I usually do.
13. Simplify your finances.   The author obviously has some finances to simplify. Think about those whose finances are so simple they can only just manage to feed themselves.

14. Simplify your life. Don't be silly. I love complexity. It keeps the brain working.

15. Accept what you have.   I go much further than that - I am actually amazed by what I have - so is my Mother!

16. Envision your ultimate life.   Not sure what they mean by "ultimate life" - if they mean death - nah! It will come when it will come. I would just prefer it not to be painful!

17. Set long-term goals.   Yes, but be prepared to keep re-setting them. If you achieve the long term goals you have set, what is there left to live for?

18. Review goals.   Even though the path to the goal may be winding, I would prefer to review whether I am on the right path in the first place.

19. Life mission.   Now we are getting into scary territory. I have never set a mission in life other than to concentrate on doing well what I am doing at present.

20. Plan your big tasks for week and day. In short, prioritise. I get that!

21. Maintain focus.   …sure, but also expect the unexpected.

22. Enjoy the journey.   I definitely go for this one.

23. Create a morning and evening routine.   Not a chance. I hate routine. So boring and predictable. If you feel like going mad - go mad! Spontaneity rules ok!

24. Develop intimate relationships.   Ooh! What can they possibly mean :)))xx?

25. Eliminate debt.   100% behind this one.

26. Enjoy the simple pleasures.   …and this one.

27. Empty your inbox and clear your desk.   But if it is totally empty or clear - is that an achievement, an indication that you're bored, or nobody trusts you with the work?

28. Build an emergency fund.   If you have spare funds - a good idea, but think of the millions who have no funds at all. Who is this person - an investment banker?

29. Keep a journal.   Why? You are unlikely to put in it anything that might be juicy and controversial.

30. Use the power of others.   I recognise this one - the secret of my success!!

31. Read, and read to your kids.   Okay - so I should do more of the former. My kids are old enough to read for themselves.

32. Limit your information intake.   Oh yes? And how do you choose where to draw the line? Surely what they mean is " learn to filter the information intake!"

33. Create simple systems.   Simple is good.

34. Take time to decompress after stress.   …otherwise you will decompose?

35. Be present.   I guess this means be "engaged".

36. Develop equanimity.   That sort of suggests agreeing with everything for the sake of peace. Not for me, if I have a different point of view.

37. Spend time with family and loved ones.   Is there a difference between "family" and "loved ones"? I spend time with people I like.

38. Pick yourself up when you’re down.   Especially because you should not expect anyone else to do so.

39. Don’t compare yourself to others.   Good advice. Be yourself.

40. Focus on benefits, not difficulties.   Same as 12, surely.

41. Be romantic.   Oh, why not! :-)

42. Lose arguments.   Excuse me? On what basis? Actually I usually lose arguments anyway - especially to my wife!!

43. Get into the flow.   These ideas are getting repetitive. See 35!

44. Single-task.   Easy for men. Only women multi-task successfully and consistently/

45. Be frugal.   As a Scot I can relate to this one easily!

46. Start small and slow. Story of life; we all do - ever seen a 1 meter tall baby able to run a 100metres in record time?

47. Learn to deal with detractors.   Yep - ignore them (unless they are accurate in their assessments!!)

48. Go outdoors.   Nothing better than fresh air - but try telling that to people who live in Beijing and Hong Kong!!

49. Retire early. That's the problem of the Greek economy, although I suspect in this context it means go to bed early (and if so why couldn't they just say that?). I say, "get the sleep you need". Some people need lots - I don't!

50. Savor the little things. Here we go again - see 26.

51. Be lazy. Like politicians and others?

52. Help others. Bit surprised to see this as the last one. Should have had much greater priority!!

Oh, and what happened to "Live for the Day"? I appreciate now very much the fact that as one gets older - barring accidents, the end of one's natural life approaches and the famous bucket list, the wish list if you like, needs to be tackled. If you are able, live the life you would like to live.

Onwards - 2012!

Pause for Breath!

2011-12-29T21:08:08+08:00

As an exhausted world staggers and crawls to the end of another Gregorian calendar year, how many of the players - major and minor - just wish the world could stop for a week to provide room to breathe, create and implement some sensible solutions, and put us all back on track?

But even if this were to happen, would it actually make any difference, given the size of the burden we have to resolve?

Sadly, I suspect not. And news this morning from Britain is that more young people are expected to file for debt protection over the coming weeks, as their costs have blown out over the holiday period. As the line from the Pete Seeger song “Where Have All the Flowers Gone” says “When will they ever learn” And if they decide not to file for protection, where will they get the money from to repay their debts? - well it won’t be the Banks. It will more likely be the “payday advance” companies. Legal entities where a recent search (five minutes ago on a comparison web site) suggests that the interest rate is around 1,737% p.a. Read that number again and carefully; it is correct - and just in case you still don't believe me, it should show up if you just click here;

What happened to the definition of “usury”? Such laws were repealed in Britain in the 19th century - and in the USA in 1980 by Jimmy Carter. A case for a revival perhaps?

But this is not intended to be a Blog about personal debt, or spending over the holidays to keep the children happy. It is more about the fact that 2011 has, for many people, been a difficult year. It is not just sovereign debt, political shenanigans, personal debt, unemployment - it is also the wider issues surrounding the world in general. Climate change, underemployment, the growing wealth gap, and it is something we need to take charge of ourselves.

Do not necessarily expect the current crop of politicians to have the answers (there are exceptions), but try to elect people not because they want to do things that are election-winning populist, but because they want to do things that are right... things that will address the problem of having an elephant in the boat.

I do not want to end the year on a note of despondency, but on one that is positive.

A positive note that asks that section of the banking community involved to stop thumbing their noses at Governments and the public at large by demanding bigger bonuses, as if nothing has happened . (As the chair of a remuneration committee for a public company, I have just turned down a management-recommended fee increase for directors even though the current fees are below the average, on the grounds that the existing fees are “fair” for the amount of work involved. I am happy to say there were no dissenting voices).

A positive note that asks politicians not to think about the next election and their success or otherwise in such elections, but work out (and then implement) solutions that are practical and positive.

A positive note that asks media everywhere to become rather dull and report unusual things ... like “facts”, and positive news, instead of seeking out the “sensational” and interpreting things to suit their own spin.

A positive note that wishes everyone good or better health in 2012, and courage to do the things that need to be done now - rather than letting things ride and creating escalating problems for our children and grandchildren.

We may have “lost” 2011, and there is no II button available where we can pause for breath. The world moves on - and with the right attitude and commitment, we will succeed.

I am heading to Africa soon to visit a school in North Eastern South Africa that we support to see how they are doing, and January Blogs may be a little light as a result.

In the Chinese Astrological tables, next year is the Year of the Dragon and I, for one, hope his fire hasn’t gone out.

Happy and Healthy New Year.

Getting It Right - For Once!

2011-12-20T07:59:59+08:00

"But my prediction is that in 2011 the "Dear Leader" will become the "Dearly Departed Leader" ."

Rather scarily, in December 2010 at an Economist Magazine event in Hong Kong called "The World in 2011", and in my Blog dated 20 December entitled "Whatever Next" I made the above prediction (alongside four others, in the hope I would get at least one right!). Although I was the "public face" of that prediction, in all honesty it was a joint effort. The creation mainly of my good friend and Canadian collaborator who eventually persuaded me that it was possible.

Today, 19 December 2011, we received the news that it has happened. Kim Jong Il, North Korea's leader for the past 13 years is no longer. Dead, apparently from a heart attack on 17 December.

The second half of the prediction as to the future of Kim's son will still need to be followed carefully.

The world may be nervous about the possible repercussions of a power struggle affecting the rest of the world, but personally I do not think it will amount to much. I do think that this could be the opportunity the world needs to start making inroads into North Korea. Kim Jong Un, 28 years old and "The Great Successor", despite his European "education" is understood to be a complete under-achiever of limited ability and intellect. On the one hand, this could be a dangerous, if not lethal, combination. But on the other hand - is this the opportunity "the Generals" crave? Hopefully the diplomacy has already started - and the world is on the same page. China has a major role to play here, and it can be statesmanlike and responsible within the global context.

As a person who has never been happy about making predictions - especially about the future (partly because my success rate has not been high) - getting one as big as this right (I think I got them all right actually - but the others were dead certainties) inevitably means that my forecasting days are over.

My crystal ball has never been better than that of anyone else, which remains the case, but it is always nice to get one right occasionally, particularly when you were beginning to doubt yourself. Always go out on a "high", they say. Quit while you are ahead. And that really is what I should do without tempting fate.

But ... with the Eurozone crisis unresolved, French elections that could turn everything upside down, the establishment of the new leadership in China, and a still uncertain Middle East ... there are many possible topics for predictions. None of them, however, are likely to be positive and I think that 2012 is going to be generally gloomy, but with a lot of hard work and probably considerable compromise, we will come through it and be facing the end of next year with renewed confidence.

Barbarity Is Not A "Cultural Difference".

2011-12-19T05:30:14+08:00

No cartoons this time around. Not in the mood for humour as I read once more about the barbarity of certain members of this world in which we are all supposed to live in harmony together. Barbarity disguised (excused even?) in the name of "cultural differences". I am sorry but there can be no place today for the actions of men principally in parts of the Islamic world - particularly in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan with regard to women.

I have been described in comments on my Blog as an apologist for China, which I do not think I am, preferring instead to try and balance anti-Chinese Western driven rhetoric. China, a country with many imperfections which, nevertheless, is trying to improve and has done pretty well from a standing start of only a little over 30 years.

I have been described, also in comments on the Blog, as being anti-American. A comment that again I would defend, supported by many of my American friends many of whom who have actually agreed with my comments.

And I have been described to my face, accusingly, of being an Arab-sympathiser; actually by someone who has never lived in that region, no less. And on the basis that much of the world sees any Arab as a potential terrorist, I would defend myself against that comment on the basis that I know many Arabs who are perfectly decent and reasonable men - and women. And yes, there are indeed some genuine cultural differences in Islam that I completely respect.

But if Islam wants to know why it has a bad name - here is one place to start which is just not defensible.

So called "honour killings", for example, where women have been killed because they have brought "shame" to their community by just talking to the wrong person. This seems to happen in Britain, but if you want to carry out an honour killing in Birmingham England, you cannot - or should not - expect to be saved because you are "culturally different". There are laws in Britain against this sort of thing, and despite attempts in some quarters to make the country religiously neutral by making even the wishing of Happy Christmas seem somehow inappropriate, Britain is still predominantly Christian.

And now the recent reports out of Bangladesh where a man cut off his wife's fingers because she wanted to study is not - at least to my mind - a cultural difference. It is a pure act of barbarism and has no place in our world. It follows on from an earlier report of the man who gouged out his wife's eyes, also because she wanted to study.

We are not supposed to intervene in the affairs of other countries, but how can one stand back and allow this sort of thing to happen? Okay, so human rights groups are demanding life imprisonment for this crime, but will they get it? It will be interesting to see if the media keep an eye on it and follow up. Certainly the comments from the police chief in Bangladesh would not give me comfort that this will be treated very seriously. "He was enraged", said the Chief, "He was jealous." Draw your own conclusions!

In an attempt to bring some balance to my thoughts, the west has not always behaved properly either - but it was a few centuries back with things like the Catholic led Spanish Inquisition, and the Puritans with their witch trials. We have learnt from those mistakes. And this is the 21st Century. And whatever your religious persuasion, barbarity is NOT amongst them and is not condoned in Islam either.

While on this rather depressing subject, I just want to share with you a link sent to me the other day by an old school friend. I hope you can open it, and that you will watch it through. It's not long and will cost you nothing, but it provides a story of hope. It is organisations like the Hoshyar Foundation, and my old and continuing favourite Room to Read that are doing so much to try and change the world for the better. Particularly by educating girls and women.

Isn't It Time To Bite The Bullet?

2011-12-09T19:59:18+08:00

Back to Europe yet again for this Blog because, whether we like it or not, what happens there is ultimately going to affect us here in Asia. It is all very well for us to continue to pat ourselves on the back and say we are in good shape in places like Hong Kong, but I think we would do well to remind ourselves of the Boy Scout motto “Be Prepared".

But before I spread more gloom and despondency, as in recent writing, I remarked to a good friend a day or so ago that after all this prevarication, on and off discussions, no decisions, and “will they won’t they” diplomacy, it was probably time that the major players took a deep breath and decided to bite the bullet

Talented man that he is, I got this by return.

An original, no less.

But he doesn’t stop at creating cartoons. We were discussing the European events in September or October in the wake of a stock market up-turn, - “a frenzy of blind optimism”, he said, "rather flimsily based on rumours that European leaders were suddenly ready to act”. “Where did that come from" he added "they hadn’t taken any action in the previous 18 months, so “sudden” was rather unlikely”. And so it has been proved.

Clearly one cannot take a snap decision over something as complex as this, but by the same token one cannot delay forever. There is certainly no shortage of advice out there from the media, the professionals, the laymen and the politicians, but little consensus beyween them. Suggestions run the gamut of reverting to the original Eurozone members and letting the "new" joiners either sink or swim in another pond. That, to me as a non-expert, seems to be a reasonable suggestion, but it leaves the big question of what do you do with the remaining 21 members? Anarchy in their own countries perhaps, spreading into the rest of Europe? It would seem there are enough people out there who are ready for a fight.

Or let Germany move out from the Eurozone and do its own thing. There appears to be a growing swell of public opinion in that country which runs along the lines of "how much longer are we expected to bail out people who cannot balance their own books?" The trouble for Germany would be that going it alone would see an appreciation of their currency that would have an immediate impact on its ability to export and earn revenues, bringing Germany to its knees.

There are more variations on a theme than those written by Elgar. But the time has come for real leadership from a group of politicians whose re-election hopes must be made secondary to the main role of resolving the crisis. They would work together with organisations including the IMF, and the financial community and the European Governments with a view to coming to a decision - and then implementing it! (I saw an article today that said the IMF should not get involved – or at least the non-European members should speak up against a bail out coming from the Fund. A short sighted view, I think, because this is a global problem).

It is important to get this resolved because the longer it drags through the winter months, and the uncertainty lingers, the more chance there is of matters turning ugly – and they will not just be economic issues but social ones. “Occupy Wall Street” will become focused on real issues and develop a sense of purpose. It will spread. We can do without that .

And for us in Asia, we are not immune. China is going through a leadership change that will take months to settle down, and the current level of inactivity will continue. We have our own – and rather ridiculous – “Occupy the space under the Bank because it is covered, but protest about the property developers” movement in Hong Kong, and also a leadership election. Korea is moving into an election year in 2012, while Japan seems to be having trouble keeping a Government at all. And that’s just the politics. Economically in Asia we are beginning to feel the effects of reduced orders, and rising inflation. Unemployment too, is an issue amongst the “young” populations particularly in South East Asia – which will lead to a testosterone imbalance, and add more anger and fuel to the fires of unrest that are already bubbling under the surface.

And from a crisis that had its origins in the USA – an economy that itself is still not out of the woods – and has spread with alarming and amplified effect vengeance into Europe, we need a resolution before it gathers more potency and hits us.

There is no “soft” option really – and measures that will actually resolve the problem are likely to be painful – but something has to happen, and be followed through.

Now is the time to bite that bullet.

What's That Smell?

2011-12-05T00:05:01+08:00

Here's the scene.

You go into a bathroom on a plane. It smells really really bad but you're desperate to go. You finish, wash your hands but the smell is still there when you leave. The person outside wanting to get in after you, enters, looks back at you as if you were the one who had made the smell, and clearly thinks you need to see a doctor to check on whatever is wrong with you - and you feel guilty, despite the fact you were not the originator.

The parallel? The investment banking community in particular, but together with commercial banks, regulators, rating agencies, politicians et al create a bad smell - especially over matters like bonuses and pay - right minded and some sensible commentators and practitioners go in to try and bring some semblance of order, perspective and reality to such payments, but the original greedy culprits are still out there shovelling in the bonuses, totally oblivious it seems to public opinion.

This is going to end in tears, eventually.

I have just travelled from Canada (some semblance of order, I thought) through London. I had an early evening business meeting to attend with a colleague I had not previously met, and with the West End of London being mutually reachable territory we agreed to a lobby lounge in a location that neither of us knew much about. The lounge was full and we had not booked, so we went to find a seat in the bar. Mistake. You couldn't move comfortably because of the crowd - none of whom were going to allow you any space - and all you could hear amongst the popping of champagne corks were Hooray Henrys (and Henriettas) braying about their latest financial triumph.

It is clearly not enough that some European Governments (isn't it interesting that they all seem to be in the "sunshine belt" - except Ireland which at least looks as if it is making some good progress) are in dire straits because they are spending more than they "earn". And that their attempts to rein in the excesses are leading to riots.

You know what? There is going to come a time when the disadvantaged (in their eyes), are going to take seriously the fact that they are no better off than they were 10 years ago. Fact! New jobs are still hard to come by, there is rising inflation and a lack of income on their deposits, if they have any. But by contract there are still members of the community out there who are not affected. And they are getting richer. The gap widens. And as it widens, I suspect patience will narrow.

If patience narrows, intolerance grows. The nice cars on the streets - whoever they belong to, will indiscriminately be targeted for damage. The nice second homes that are left empty might gather unwanted occupants, who have the force of the law with them - not with the absentee owner. The places where "smart" people go will become targets for protests. Not a pretty scene, is it?

I must reiterate my views on bonuses and pay. I am not against them, as long as they relate to genuine value added and a job well done, using money that has been entrusted to you by investors or indeed using your own money. But not if you have been bailed out by Government and are now sticking your thumb to your nose because it hasn't affected you. You are then "playing" with other peoples money - and even if you lose, you still seem to get paid, or you move elsewhere equally lucrative.

People working in financial markets particularly have, over recent years, been receiving payments that the majority of people can only stare at and maybe dream about 10% of the amounts paid. It reached levels beyond anything linked to inflation and general increases in living standards - and if it is just left to continue unchecked - then don't be surprised if the world turns on you. Adapt to your surroundings and take notice of what public opinion is saying.

If you don't, then you might just end up with the contents of the bathroom being tipped over your own head - and instead of wondering what the smell is, you'll be sitting in it!

The Pot and the Kettle.

2011-11-27T16:00:00+08:00

Communist China is destined for the ash heap of history because they are not a country of virtues.

Republican Presidential hopeful Rick Perry.

For those unfamiliar with the expression "The pot calling the kettle black", it is an idiom used to accuse a person of being guilty of the very thing of which they accuse another.

I have been accused of anti-American sentiment in these columns before which, happily, American friends willingly deny on my behalf, but I have never (yet) been accused of being totally stupid. (And I am equally critical of other nations too, when warranted).

But I just wonder what Mr Perry had in mind by referring to China lacking virtue, and which country was he using as a benchmark - the USA? Does he really believe that the "American example" is the one that everyone else should follow? Does he seriously believe that the country that brought us the origins of the latest global financial crisis (not being well handled by European political leaders, in my view) is one whose greed is to be admired? There are surely, if one but reads or listens to the news, cases of rights abuses, fraud, shootings, and many other defects in the USA - in some cases many more than elsewhere.

Or is this "merely" electioneering rhetoric, not to be taken seriously? Let's face it "Destined for the ash heap of history" is pretty strong, but I don't think the Chinese leadership are going to be quaking in their shoes at Mr Perry's pronouncement.

I suspect, instead, that China is more inclined to the Kissinger view of US influence in China, when he said words to the effect "China managed to get through 5,000 years of history without significant advice from the United States. That is why they do not take as self evident that their domestic affairs should be prescribed by the United States." I have seen this written in a variety of ways, all attributed to Mr. Kissinger, but all say the same thing.

Don't get me wrong. I am not defending China from the comment made about virtue. Is China a country of virtues? Of course it's not, but I believe that it is making progress, which is slow at times, and it is determined to do more. But with a population four times the size of the USA it is going to inevitably be a long process. The USA has been trying to "get it right" since 1776; China, only really from it's re-entry into the modern world in the late 1970s. It is far from ideal - particularly from a Western perspective - and anyway frankly, is there a country anywhere that could truly describe itself as virtuous? Which one is the role model? Mr Mugabe's Zimbabwe doesn't seem to be criticised much these days - but then I suppose it is too insignificant to be considered a threat to America.

And why the China bashing anyway, are you really that scared of China's return to influence? Its return, if you like, to the prominent position it once held globally and long before a young America came onto the scene.

Actually, I wouldn't worry too much about it. China, along with much of the rest of Asia is much more likely to link up with South America, Australasia, Africa and the Middle East over the next century or two and will leave the USA and Europe to go and figure out the future for themselves.

It does worry me though that in this world of ours we are becoming increasingly nationalistic and protectionist. Although I do understand that when we have the sort of levels of debt and unemployment we are facing today, particularly in the West, that this is perhaps a natural reaction. But when you add inflammatory comments to the equation from politicians who, frankly, should know better - in the long run it will come back and bite us.

Oh, and by the way, isn't this the same Mr. Perry who just been accused of hypocrisy for an investment in America's largest pornography distributor? The pot calling the kettle black - perhaps?

It's going to be a long winter!!

Reflections - Of Worms and iPads

2011-11-24T09:00:00+08:00

In recent years I have been saddened by the things that people can no longer do in our so-called "civilised" and modern society that would have been commonplace in my time.

Aged seven and eight years old I would walk down to the end of our road and catch a bus to school by myself, get off at the right stop, walk the rest of the way to school, and come home the same way. Now, it seems, if an innocent child wanders off they become at risk of being snatched. The rise of child pornography surely sickens any right minded person, but such appears to be the demand for its production that there is obviously a substantial enough depraved community.

And we now seem to need to be protected from ourselves by laws, rules and regulations because we have stopped being aware that we need to take responsibility for ourselves through common sense. We no longer understand what "principles" mean, therefore we try and legislate them. We eat too much of the wrong thing, but we can get pills to help us from dying of gluttony. Everything we eat and drink needs to be labelled, so we are at least well enough informed to know how we are killing ourselves!

The trouble, for me at least, is that this is irreversible. George Orwell, author of "1984" which, like some of his other books railed against totalitarianism, must be smirking quietly to himself (he was a man of wit) in the knowledge that actually it didn't in the end need communism to introduce the concept of a nanny state and "big brother is watching you" into our lives; we managed it all by ourselves!

So before I wander into a state of melancholy, I thought I would share with you something I received through my virtual mailbox a day or two ago that summed up my thoughts pretty well. Now don't get me wrong - some of the changes that we have made in modern times, like the banning of smoking are clearly beneficial to the community as a whole - but what follows really reflects the things we did, with a few amendments of my own.

First, we survived being born to mothers who smoked and/or drank gin while they carried us, and lived in places made of asbestos with no indoor toilets and just a zinc bath for ablutions.

They took aspirin, ate blue cheese, bread and dripping, raw egg products, loads of bacon and processed meat, sausages (with real meat in them), tuna from a can, and didn't get tested for diabetes or cervical cancer. (And before you start wittering about life expectancy, my Mother will be 92 next week, and her sister 94 next May!)

Our baby cots were covered with bright coloured lead-based paints. We had no childproof lids on medicine bottles, doors or cabinets and when we rode our bikes, we had no helmets.

As children, we might ride in cars with no seat belts or air bags.

On a summers day we drank water straight from the garden hose and NOT from a bottle.Take away food was limited to fish and chips. No Pizza Hut, McDonalds, KFC, Subway or Nandos. We shared one soft drink with four friends, from one bottle and NO ONE actually died from this.

Even though all the shops closed at 5:30 pm, as well as on Saturday afternoons and sometimes Thursday half-days, and didn't open at all on a Sunday, somehow we didn't starve to death!

We ate cupcakes, white bread and real butter made from cow's milk. We drank soft drinks with sugar in them, but we weren't overweight because....WE WERE ALWAYS OUTSIDE PLAYING!! We would leave home in the morning and play all day, as long as we were back just before it got dark, or when we had been told to be home. No one was able to reach us all day - no mobile phones. And we were OK.

We would spend hours building go-carts out of old prams and then ride them down the hill, only to find out we forgot the brakes. We built tree houses, made camps and played on river banks -or in the river itself, in our underwear - unsupervised. We did not have Playstations, Nintendo Wii , X-boxes, no video games, no 999 channels on SKY, no video/dvd films, or colour TV, no personal computers, no Internet or Internet chat rooms..........WE HAD FRIENDS and we went outside and found them!

We fell out of trees, cut ourselves, broke bones and teeth and there were no lawsuits from these accidents.

We ate worms (admittedly, usually by accident) and mud pies made from dirt, and the worms did not live in us forever.

We were given catapults for our 10th birthdays and our parents taught us how they should be used safely.

We rode bikes or walked to a friend's house and knocked on the door or rang the bell, or just yelled for them!

Not everyone made the rugby/football/cricket/netball team. Those who didn't learnt how to deal with any disappointment. Getting into the team was based on MERIT. Our teachers used to hit us with canes and gym shoes and throw chalk or even the blackboard duster at us if they thought we weren't concentrating....

Our parents would tell us to ask a stranger to help us cross the road, and the idea of a parent bailing us out if we broke the law was unheard of. They actually sided with the law!

Our parents took responsibility for us. For our upbringing, our behaviour, our social education if you like. They took an interest, and didn't abdicate their responsibility to the teachers. And if you got told off, it was usually because you deserved it, and it wasn't a matter for an enquiry.

We had freedom, failure, success and responsibility, and we learned how to deal withit all. And if you are my age, or perhaps 15 years or so younger, you have survived. Congratulations!

Today our world is very different, and so are the pressures. I am neither that naive nor that stupid not to have noticed. I look at my own children - adults now themselves. I am hugely proud of my own kids, how they have turned out and their own attitudes to life, as I am sure many parents are of theirs - I understand them (I think!) and their values, to which I can relate. But I don't think they had as much natural fun as I had growing up. Even if I had my own disappointments.

But my question now is this: if we managed to successfully navigate a different way of life, and if our own children are the decent types of human being you wanted them to be, but we now bemoan and criticise what that world has become,where the hell did it all go wrong?

That's it!I've said my piece. I am typing this on my iPad on yet another flight, so that when I land I can "post" it on the Internet for people in a number of countries to read it immediately without waiting for the postman to arrive, and just scratch my head and smile at the memories - because let's face it, what else can you do?

Who's For Turkey?

2011-11-21T09:00:00+08:00

Thanksgiving Week, and not a good one for turkeys in the USA. But if you think the rest of the Blog is going to be about a member of the genus Maleagris, sorry - think again.

I have in mind a somewhat luckier Turkey; as depicted below:

A country of almost 75 million people, predominantly of the Muslim faith but with no official religion - in other words a secular state. And if it can stay that way, it will likely do well.

A country which has been somewhat schizophrenic in its outlook - Janus-like, facing as it does in both geographic directions, never sure whether it was a part of Europe or the Middle East. And yet with strong connections even to China where the Uigers exist as a Turkic minority race.

A country with a strong desire to join the European Union, although I suspect right now it must be breathing a huge sigh of relief that it had been unsuccessful. But now a country with some desires and designs of its own.

For many years Turkey has been viewed as somewhat chaotic. Out of touch. An occasional holiday destination. A haven for terrorists. A producer of cheap goods (and not good quality) but at least one that could cope with lower volumes and orders rather than having to compete with the monster factories established in China, for example, who could only operate profitably on large volume orders.

But the last decade has been changing all that. Political stability. Better education, leading to a more skilled workforce. A successful economy. A serious tourist destination - and now Turkey sitting as it does on the outer edges of the Arab Spring, and looking both East and West, is being considered as a sea of stability and a conduit through which businesses and people can safely trade, East to West and vice versa. A country with aspirations and a growing belief in its ability to succeed.

A detour. I have just been in both Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The contrast today between those two countries is striking.

The Saudi heads of Saudi businesses were sharp, bright-eyed, intellectual, progressive businessmen. No reliance on Government handouts and a feeling that they didn't have to work too hard, that might have been the impression of them in earlier years. In a word they are impressive. If the country as a whole was able to move faster down the reformist line they have travelled so far, the global business world would be the better for it (and so, I believe would the country).

Egypt as you might expect given the turmoil in the country, and I have to confess I was only in Cairo, was looking depressed. Of five business people questioned in depth, one was extremely bullish about the country, two were depressingly negative, the fourth was slipping down the "happy" scale the more he talked and the fifth had a "party" line about him. The verbal language was mutedly positive, the body language decidedly defeated. A colleague who had a number of other meetings found no-one positive about the country. The roads are jammed as police seem to leave drivers to sort themselves out. It appeared in some places the general public were actually directing the traffic. It is sad to see, but the longer the country drifts, the greater difficulty there will be in restoring order. It is like an illness where a cure is harder to find the longer the disease has been allowed to continue untreated.

But there was one striking common feature about the discussions in both countries. Turkey.

A similarity of opinion from people that we spoke to who agreed that Turkey was the future place to do business. And I have tested it out here in Hong Kong where the level of serious interest in Turkey is also growing.

Turkey probably cannot ignore the West - 55% of its exports head for Europe at present, but that's a market where demand is going to fall at least in the short term. It is a stable, democratic state with strong Middle Eastern roots, and I suspect investors will be closely looking at what more they can do in Turkey. And the demographics of certain parts of Asia, like those of Turkey are similar where half the Turkish population is around 28 years or under.

If you had to put a country on your watch list for your future business, one would have to ask "who's for Turkey?" Unless they do something incredibly insane - I am!

PEP Talk ... Two

2011-11-19T17:08:07+08:00

Now, where was I? I think my intended short Blog of 17 November started to grow legs once I got into it - and if you have come into this Blog "cold" as it were, PEP stands for People, Economics and Politics!

It started off by saying that you should never judge a person's intelligence by the way they dress and look, and then I was suggesting that our global Economic woes were largely caused by People. We have to a large extent brought this current crisis on ourselves, (but of course are quick to blame everyone and anything else!). I then started down the "Economics" path - busily distancing myself from any specialist knowledge on the subject, but just speculating (oops, that word again!) on what might happen next, in particular in the Eurozone. And it is this Eurozone region, to me anyway, that is currently at the heart of what is likely to happen next.

We all know Greece has a problem. Unless they are prepared to accept tough measures that will undoubtedly impact their lifestyle, they will go bankrupt. Why will anyone want to lend more to a Government that cannot repay its debts because they cannot raise enough money to do so? This is serious enough, but it has other implications too.

For example a similar story might now be emerging in Italy. This is a country that has to re-negotiate approximately Euros 350 billion of debt next year. That is, renegotiate or repay. It cannot do the latter. But if you borrow - you pay interest. As a "sovereign" borrower, previously they might have had to pay 3 or 4% interest annually but the most recent issue of Italian Government 10 year bonds had an interest rate of around 6.8% per annum; expensive - very! If that trend continues, then next year's re-negotiations could be at historic highs making it hard for Italy to even service the interest repayment! The same story is repeated in Spain and Portugal.

But if you are still with me - it gets even worse. Banks who make these loans to Governments have in the past not had to put any capital reserves to one side against this sovereign debt, because Governments always repay!! But Greece has now asked its lenders to take a 50% reduction in the amounts it will repay, which means that Government debt can no longer be considered "risk-free". Therefore, in future banks will probably be asked to provide some capital cover for this type of lending. Maybe it will be 50%, maybe it will be 20%. I don't know the answer, but what it will mean is that banks will have to raise more capital in the market - and how much is available for them to borrow to increase their balance sheets? Already one Italian bank has started the process, others will have to follow and the French and German banks will not be immune at all. The two major French banks are already showing signs of strain.

And I'm not finished yet. With the gloom already in the markets, add to that the fact it is becoming clear in Asia that shipments out of the region to the West particularly, USA and the Eurozone - are sharply down as people spend less in those econmies and you can see that there is going to be a ripple effect into the markets here, in Asia.

As matters stand today, we have problems. And they are not being tackled well. In fact the structure of the Eurozone doesn't help. Too many countries are involved when it comes to making a decision, which renders the process to make decisions neither easy nor quick. And each month's delay in taking action compounds the problem.

So, we have thought about the People. We have done a little about the Economics - and which is the last part of the piece - the true villains, perhaps? The Politicians. That breed of people who bear a strong resemblance to analysts and rating agencies.

Like analysts because they have short time horizons. The next election is their key target. How to maximise their people-popularity - which by the way is not usually achieved by taking strong measures that affect lifestyles even if their reluctance is likely to shove the country deeper in debt. (Of the "bad" economies in Europe at present perhaps Ireland is the stand out success. They know something has to be done, and they do seem to be doing it).

Like rating agencies because they have a CYA mentality (with apologies to readers of a gentle disposition).

Thus the dilemma. Most people I speak to believe that the economic reality of all this mess at present can only be resolved by firm and swift action. If letting Greece go is the answer - let them go. If re-designing the Eurozone, even putting it back to the original founding members (with or without Italy?) is the answer - then do it. BUT - the politicians have an eye on their own futures, their jobs, their pensions ... and not losing face by having created, and then having to disband a concept that has grown out of control. So we have "Economic Reality vs Political Expediency".

Is this a game to win or lose - or will it more likely end up as just another "muddle through" - with compromises all round.

Oh, I almost forgot. If you want China or anyone else like them to help do not think they will do so through Europe directly. They won't. There is no upside for them. But keep an eye on the IMF instead - and there, maybe, you will find an answer.